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Friday, November 30, 2007

No surprise: No arbitration for Andruw

Before Frank Wren, Bobby Cox and the rest of the Braves’ party of 15 or so heads off to Nashville on Sunday for the Winter Meetings, the team basically snipped the last thread of hope that even the most optimistic Andruw Jones fans had of having the center fielder back with Atlanta in 2008.

Personally, I thought the Braves had been pretty clear all along that Andruw wasn’t coming back, but until they declined to offer arbitration to him on Friday, I could understand why there were plenty of folks hoping that maybe Andruw would drop agent Scott Boras or the Braves would reconsider or … well, something.

But it ain’t happening, folks. The Braves have been consistent on this point, from the time then-GM (now prez) John Schuerholz said only days after the season ended that the Braves weren’t going to re-sign Andruw and that he didn’t want people reading anything into the fact that they weren’t ready to announce at that time whether they might offer him arbitration.

The only way the Braves would’ve offered arbitration might’ve been if the market that Boras had said existed for Andruw were actually showing any signs of existing. So far, it hasn’t. But let me say, I still believe Boras will get a bigger contract for Jones than most people expect. Just when it looks like Jones will have to settle for a three- or four-year deal worth $10 mill a year, you watch, some team will give him a five-year, $70 million contract.

The Dodgers? The White Sox? Hey, maybe even the Royals. I don’t know, but someone will give him a bigger deal than most folks believe is possible today. If I were a betting man (I’m not), I’d go with Dodger Blue.

Anyway, for those still unclear why Braves wouldn’t offer arbitration to Andruw, while they did offer it to reliever Ron Mahay (those were their only two ranking free agents, since Octavio Dotel didn’t even make the Class B status that Andruw and Mahay made; no need to offer arbitration to Dotel, since they wouldn’t get any draft pick compensation.

First here’s the story I just wrote, then I’ll add something afterward:

By DAVID O’BRIEN

Fans holding out hope of the Braves retaining Andruw Jones got a reality check Friday, when the team declined to offer arbitration to the free-agent center fielder.

The team offered arbitration to left-handed reliever Ron Mahay, assuring the Braves of a “sandwich” draft pick as compensation if they lose Mahay to another team, as the Braves expect.

Teams had until a Saturday deadline to make decisions on arbitration to their former players who became free agents. Jones and Mahay were the Braves’ only two “ranking” free agents, those who would bring draft compensation from any team signing them if the Braves offered arbitration.

Both are Class B free agents. Compensation for that class of players is one sandwich pick created between the first and second rounds. A team that loses a Class A free agent receives a first-round pick from the team that signs him, plus a sandwich pick created between the first and second rounds.

The Braves forfeited their first-round pick in next year’s draft, the No. 18 overall selection, to the New York Mets for signing Tom Glavine, a Class A free agent.

The Braves signed Glavine before the deadline, knowing there was no chance the Mets wouldn’t offer arbitration to the 41-year-old lefty, since his arbitration salary would’ve been lower than the $13 million option he had declined with the Mets. The Braves signed him to a one-year, $8 million deal.

The Braves won’t get anything from the team that signs Jones, a 10-time Gold Glove winner who’s spent his entire career in the Braves organization. He’s had 10 consecutive seasons of at least 25 home runs, but is coming off a career-worst season in which he hit .222 with a .311 on-base percentage.

The Braves announced a week after the season that they weren’t going to re-sign Jones, saying his agent’s initial asking price far exceeded any offer they would have made. They plan to have rookies Josh Anderson, Jordan Schafer and Gregor Blanco compete for the job in spring training if they don’t obtain a more experienced center fielder before then.

The Braves weren’t willing to take the risk of offering arbitration to Jones, whose salary for 2008 could easily have surpassed $15 million through the arbitration process. If the market for his services isn’t as strong as agent Scott Boras anticipates, the Braves said there would be nothing to stop Jones from taking their arbitration offer and drawing a salary that would force them to move other high-salaried players in order to fit him into their payroll.

The Braves expect to lose Mahay, 36, whose free-agent price has risen above the level they are comfortable making an offer. The veteran lefty had a 2.25 ERA in 30 appearances for the Braves after they got him from Texas in the same July 31 trade that brought slugger Mark Teixeira to Atlanta.

OK, back to the blog: Just so we’re clear, Wren told me Andruw could “easily” surpass $15 million in arbitration.

And yes, you better believe that the decision by Boras and Greg Maddux to accept arbitration when the Braves weren’t expecting that a few years ago, had something to do with this decision by the Braves not to offer it.

Maybe if Andruw were a Class A free agent, it’d be a slightly better gamble in the Braves’ eyes. At least then they’d get a first-round draft pick from the team that signed him, plus a sandwich pick.

But as a Class B guy, they’d only get a sandwich pick from a team. And if Andruw decided to accept arbitration, come back and play for $15-16 mill next season in hopes of reestablishing his free-agent value, the Braves would have to make a couple of other moves involving high-salaried players in order to fit him in.

Remember the Kevin Millwood trade they felt compelled to make at the last minute after the Maddux arbitration decision? That worked out OK for the Braves, since Johnny Estrade surpassed expectations. But when it was made, it was a very good starting pitcher being traded for a Triple-A catcher.

And there was one other thing about Andruw: He’s a 10-and-5 guy. If he wasn’t, the Braves could have offered him arbitration at much less risk, because if he’d accepted they could have traded him to San Diego or Los Angeles or another team interested in Andruw, and let that team work out a contract with him.

As a 10-and-5 guy, Andruw could veto any trade the Braves tried to make if they’d offered him arbitration and he took them up on it. Again, not a good risk for a guy who’s only bringing back a sandwich-round draft pick as compensation if another team signs him.

Mahay’s an entirely different case. For one, there are teams lined up to give him two- or three-year contract offers. The Braves really aren’t in the running any longer to re-sign him as a free agent, if they ever were.

So if he, for some reason, took them up on their arbitration offer (again, no reason to believe he would, since his salary would probably be under $2 mill; he’ll get more than that per season in a multi-year deal from another team), if he decided to come back to the Braves and go to arbitration, then even if the salary came in higher than the Braves liked, they could simply trade him to one of the other teams vying for his free-agent services.

Other matters: Wren said the Braves will continue looking for a lefty reliever (he said several are potentially available, probably through trade rather than free agent), plus a backup shortstop/utility man and a more-experienced center fielder than the three prospects/rooks (Josh Anderson, Jordan Schafer, Gregor Blanco) they’ve got now penciled in to compete for the job in spring training.

But again, if they don’t get the CF, they say they’re ready to let those three kids compete for the job because all are solid defensively and Bobby Cox is stressing that their defense is the most important aspect on a team that should get plenty of offense elsewhere….

Oh, and speaking of Schafer, he was named one of the top 22 prospects in the Arizona Fall League, along with a couple of former Braves prospects: SS Elvis Andrus and lefty starting pitcher Matt Harrison. Voters were asked to consider AFL performance and “major league projectability.”

Just one more Glavine note: If you’re tired of reading Glavine notes, I can’t say I blame you. But for those who are interested, here’s one more good note from his press conference the day he signed with the Braves.

(I promise, my notebook is now empty from that press conference, with this final installment of the Glavine Chronicles - hey, the dude’s a great talker, no sense wasting this stuff, right?)

Glavine was asked if he ever “got over” being booed at Turner Field. His reply:

“Yeah, I did. For a long time I didn’t understand it. I was, I guess, angered by it a little bit. But more than anything, I just didn’t understand it. And then I think over time, I just got to the point where I was just kind of indifferent to it.

“I think that most of the people that came to the ballpark and did that don’t know me, don’t know anything about me. And honestly, I don’t think they understood the dynamics that went into why I was no longer here. But you can’t convince people of things sometimes. You can’t change people’s minds sometimes.

“I guess I just learned to live with it over time, and got to the point where all I really focused on was my family, my friends, people that knew me, knew what I was about, and really only concerned myself with what they thought.”

Didn’t he think much of it was because of his union involvement?

“I guess, and I hear that,” Glavine said. “But I mean, that’s 12 years ago. You know, 50 percent of the population is divorced, and we’ve all forgiven our ex-spouses for a whole lot more than being a union rep. I did my job that I was elected to do. I’m not saying I didn’t make any mistakes, but I think anybody who knows me, knows that if I’m asked to do something, I’m gonna do it to the best of my ability. I’m not gonna shy away from it.

“I guess if there’s one mistake that I made during those years as union rep, especially during the strike, it’s that I was too visible. I never backed away from an interview. I never backed away from a request if someone wanted to talk to me. And I guess in hindsight, that’s one of those things that maybe I wouldn’t have done so many interviews. But I guess I looked at it as, it’s my job as player rep, to try and do these things and represent my players. But maybe I did a little too much.”

Cox chimed in that day, when asked whether sentiment had anything to do with signing Glavine:

“Everybody loves Tommy — I know there were a few fans that booed, but you have to understand, too, that Don Fehr wanted the strongest possible player out there, and a smart one, to represent the union at that time. And after 850 players, Tommy was selected, so… A guy like that can be on my side anytime.

“But the bottom line is, we as an organization think Tommy can still pitch to a level that we can win. That is the bottom line. You couldn’t get a better guy than Tommy, for any community, any city, to represent your organization. I’m thrilled with it.”

Catching up with F. Gonzalez: Spent about 5 hours Friday riding motorcycles with a group of guys that included Fredi Gonzalez and Terry Pendleton. I can report to you that Fredi is no worse for wear from a sometimes-difficult season in his first year as Marlins manager.

He and his wife and their two kids still make their year-round home in Marietta (where they just moved into a beautiful home near Lassiter High), even though the Cuban-born Gonzalez actually grew up in Miami. That’s how much he and his family fell in love with the Atlanta area during his time on Cox’s coaching staff.

Anyway, Fredi’s doing good, and Pendleton … well, you folks won’t recognize him in uniform, from the neck down. He’s lost at least 20 pounds since the season ended (I didn’t ask him how much, exactly, but it’s a lot. A lot.)

It was a terrific ride we took up through Canton and Waleska, past Reinhardt College, up a two-lane “blue highway” almost to Adairsville, then over through Ranger, Ga., and Fairmount, past beautiful Carters Lake, down through Jasper, etc.

Pendleton and me peeled off at that point, since we had to get back to Atlanta before the others. I’ve got a Harley Street Bob with an expanded 103 engine, but it was all I could do to keep up with Pendleton on stretches of wide-open highway. The man has a very serious machine — a custom Bourget with a massive fuel-injected 131 cubic-inch Harley engine, and a ginorous back tire that you don’t want to be riding behind too closely if he hits any pebbles.

Fredi also rides a Bourget (the one Brian Jordan gave him as a gift for giving Jordan his old number back a few years ago) and a Harley Road King, which Fredi’s cousin rode today.

Good times. A bit chilly (38 degrees or so) when we took off at 9:30 a.m., but not too bad. And the fall foliage in the hills/mountains was spectacular.

I even got to listen to a little Merle Haggard during the ride - another of Fredi’s buddies was at the front of the line, ahead of me, and this dude’s got a fully dressed Harley Ultra, with a big shield and all that (I’ve got no shield on the Street Bob, thus brrrrr). He’s also got a stereo. We pulled up to a light one time and Hag could be heard above the rumble of that big engine.

With that in mind, take us out, Merle….

“IN THE GOOD OLD DAYS (WHEN THINGS WERE BAD)” by Merle Haggard

We got up before sunup to get the work done up

We’d work in the fields till the sun had gone down

We’ve stood and we’ve cried as we helplessly watched

A hailstorm a beatin’ our crops to the ground

And I’ve gone to bed hungry many nights as a lad

In the good old days when times were bad

I’ve seen daddy’s hands break open and bleed

And I’ve seen him work till he’s stiff as a board

I’ve seen mama lay and suffer in sickness

In need of a doctor we couldn’t afford

Anything at all was more than we had

In the good old days when times were bad

No amount of money could buy from me

The mem’ries that I have of them

No ammount of money could pay me

To go back and live through it again

We’ve got up before we found ice on the floor

Where the wind would blew snow

Through the cracks in the wall

And I’ve walked many miles to an old country school

With my luch in a bag of my overalls

Anything at all was more than we had

In the good old days when times were bad

No ammount of money could buy from me

The mem’ries that I have of them

No ammount of money could pay me

To go back and live through it again

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