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Monday, November 26, 2007
Hampton hurt again; whither Andruw?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A quick one, before he’s away at the Winter Meetings (OK, that was fairly lame paraphrasing of the The Who’s rockin’ second album title).
If it seems like negotiation wheels are grinding slowly for free agents such as the Braves’ Andruw Jones, Ron Mahay and Octavio Dotel, well, they are. But that could change abruptly Saturday, when the free-agent market really starts to take shape.
Saturday (Dec. 1) is the last day for teams to offer salary arbitration to their former players who became free agents. And unless another suitor is sure a Class A free agent’s former team is going to offer arbitration, there’s not much reason to sign that player before Dec. 1. Jones, Mahay and Dotel aren’t Class A free agents (Dotel isn’t even a Class B), but moves around baseball usually have a trickle-down effect.
Think about it. If you — you being the new team; c’mon work with us here in this example — sign a Class A free agent before Dec. 1, before that player’s former team declines to offer arbitration, then you have to give up a first-rolund draft pick.
And if there’s a reasonable chance you won’t have to give up a pick, well, why wouldn’t you wait until after Dec. 1? (I’ll answer that — you would wait.)
THIS JUST IN: Hampton is hurt … again.
I was just about to file the blog when Frank Wren returned my call from this afternoon. When I asked about Hampton and the report from the Spanish-language website that he’d hurt a leg in his Mexican Winter League debut, Wren confirmed.
Said he had no idea Hampton was hurt when I talked to him (Wren) early Friday morning before my flight to Kansas City. He got a call later that day from Hampton.
Anyway, I’ll just post here my story that I just filed for the paper on this latest ailment for the oft-injured lefty:
By DAVID O’BRIEN
It’s a familiar refrain, this time from south of the border: Mike Hampton is hurt again.
The Braves left-hander injured his right hamstring in the first inning of his first start in the Mexican Winter League last week. He left after one inning, and it’s uncertain if he’ll pitch again this winter.
“We don’t know when he’ll come back [in winter ball], if at all,” Braves general manager Frank Wren said. “There’s only four weeks left in the season, and hamstring injuries usually take a while.”
Hampton, 35, has missed the past two seasons recovering from elbow surgeries on his pitching arm, and the Braves hoped he could make seven starts in Mexico to better gauge the likelihood of having him back in Atlanta’s starting rotation for the 2008 season.
But the injury in Thursday’s start for Navojoa was another reminder of why the Braves say they aren’t counting on Hampton - not like they were counting on him a year ago at this time.
“We’re cautiously optimistic that Mike can bounce back and be a starter,” Wren said. “But it’s simple as this: there’s no guarantees.”
The Braves don’t plan to pursue another starter this winter. They say that even without Hampton, they’d have seven other pitchers vying for their five-man rotation.
John Smoltz, Tim Hudson and Tom Glavine are penciled in at the top. Hampton will have the fourth spot if healthy, and incumbent Chuck James would have competition for the fifth spot from rookies Jo-Jo Reyes and Jair Jurrjens and September surprise Jeff Bennett.
Hampton hurt his right hamstring when he came off the mound to make a play near the end of the first inning Thursday. He tried to keep his leg loose and come back for a second inning, but the pain worsened in warm-ups before the inning, and he left the game.
Wren said Hampton called him Friday and told him the bad news, and the GM was informed by trainers that the muscle had “bled out,” usually a sign of something more than a mild strain.
Hampton is owed $15 million in 2008, the final season of an eight-year, $121 million contract he signed with Colorado. He was traded to Atlanta after the 2002 season in a three-way deal with Florida.
The Braves were responsible for $48.5 million of his salary during 2003-08, but insurance covered part of it the past two seasons. Wren said insurance would again pay part of it again if Hampton is DL’d in 2008.
The Braves have never disclosed how much of Hampton’s salary has been covered by insurance while on the disabled list; the amount was believed to be between 40-60 percent on a prorated basis.
Hampton has had eight stints on the disabled list since being traded to the Braves after the 2002 season. He hasn’t pitched in a game stateside since 2005, when he was 5-3 with a 3.50 ERA in 12 starts before blowing out his elbow and having Tommy John ligament-transplant surgery.
OK, back to the regularly scheduled blog….
Where were we? Oh, explaining why teams wait (or don’t) until Dec. 1 to sign free agents.
The Orange County Angels of Greater Laguna Beach had to know Minnesota would offer Torii Hunter arbitration (there was no way Hunter would’ve accepted a one-year deal with the Twins when he was in position for a huge, multi-year contract on the open market), so the Angels last week pulled the trigger on a five-year, $90 million deal for Hunter.
The Braves had to know the Mets would offer Tom Glavine arbitration — everyone knew Glavine already declined a $13 million option to return to the Mets, so there was no reason for the Mets to think Glavine would accept arbitration, which would’ve resulted in a salary below $13 million. The Mets would’ve loved for him to do that — they wanted him back, and are scrambling now for a replacement.
So instead of waiting for the formality of the Mets offering arbitration on Saturday, the Braves went ahead and signed Glavine last week to a one-year, $8 million contract. By doing so, the Braves gave up their first-round draft pick (No. 18 overall) to the Mets, who also will get a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds for losing Glavine.
Just so we’re clear, since several folks have asked me: You need to understand there was no way, no reason, for the Braves to think the Mets wouldn’t offer him arbitration, and absolutely no reason for the Mets not to offer it, since they wanted Glavine back and since his salary through arbitration would likely have been less than his salary through the option he declined.
Also, Glavine made it pretty clear to those close to him that he wanted to either pitch for the Braves or retire.
Most other significant moves this fall have been trades, with the notable exception of eyebrow-raising free-agent signings of relief pitchers to contracts so large — Scott Linebrink gets four years, $19 million from the White Sox? Oh, my — as to indicate baseball is back full-bore in salary insanity after a brief period in which the sharp annual rise in salaries had slowed a bit.
Again, everyone knew Linebrink would be offered arbitration, since there’s no way a relief pitcher in his situation would accept it and a one-year deal, instead of one of the multi-year, lucrative offers he was sure to receive.
The cases of Jones, Mahay and Dotel are all very different situations.
With Mahay, I’m pretty certain the Braves will offer arbitration, but you never know. Assuming they do, or if someone signs him before Saturday, the Braves will get a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds for losing Mahay, a Class B free agent. But that shouldn’t stop another team from signing him before then, if they wanted to, since they don’t actually give up the pick; rather, it’s created.
However, again this is likey a case of teams waiting to see how the market shapes up.
The Yankees, who are interested, likely know that Mahay’s not going to sign with anyone until the Yankees weigh in with their offer, right? So they’ll wait until after Saturday. At least that’s my read on the situation.
With Andruw and Dotel, I’d say there’s no way the Braves will offer arbitration to either. They don’t want to be stuck with perhaps a $14-16 mill salary for Jones, whose agent, Scott Boras, sent the Braves into scramble mode to meet payroll when he had client Greg Maddux accept arbitration from the Braves years ago, when the Braves thought there was no way the veteran pitcher would do so.
Everyone I’ve talked to believes as I do, that Boras has far overestimated the market for Jones, and that it’s a pipe dream to think the 10-time Gold Glove winner is going to get anywhere near $20 million a year in a long-term contract.
If Boras doesn’t think Jones can get more for Jones than, say, $14 mill per in a four-year contract (just tossing around figures, haven’t heard any proposed offers yet), then what’s to stop Boras from having Andruw accept arbitration?
I know what he’s told me and others about not taking one-year offer for Jones, but if Andruw accepted arbitration, Boras could simply say Andruw made the decision on his own, against Boras’ advice, because Andruw had such love for the Braves and a desire to come back for one more season with Atlanta in hopes of them reconsidering a long-term commitment to him in the future, etc., etc.
But the Braves can hope a team signs him before Saturday, since that would have given Atlanta a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds, the only way they’ll get compensation for Jones without offering him arbitration. They wouldn’t get a first-round pick from the team that signed him before Saturday, because Jones is only a Class B free agent, not a Class A.
(By the way, I know it sounds strange that the 2005 MVP runner-up, a player who hit 92 homers during the 2005-06 seasons and has 10 Gold Gloves, would slip from the Class A ranks, but the latest collective bargaining agreement had revisions to the system and reduced the Class A free agents from the top 30 percent to the top 20 percent. Only the last two seasons are considered for such ranking purposes, so anything Jones did before 2006 doesn’t factor into this matter).
For much the same reason, teams are wise to wait to sign Dotel, who made $5 mill last season. The way the arbitration system is set up, players rarely take significant paycuts and usually get raises. The Braves don’t want to pay anywhere near the potential arbitration price for Dotel to be a setup man.
If I had to bet right now, I’d say Andruw will end up with the Dodgers or White Sox, Dotel with the Mets or Royals. But I’m glad I don’t have to bet.
Couple other matters: We’ll have another blog later in the week to re-address Braves needs heading into the Winter Meetings in Nashville, but those needs should be familiar by now, since GM Frank Wren has stated them clearly.
Left-handed reliever. Utility man who’d be the primary backup shortstop. And a stopgap center fielder with more experience than the three rookies the Braves currently have penciled in to battle for the job: Jordan Schafer, Josh Anderson (acquired from Houston in the Oscar Villarreal trade) and Gregor Blanco.
Again, if they don’t trade for a Coco Crisp or David DeJesus, the Braves say they are prepared to go with one of the three above-mentioned young players, who’ll compete during spring training for the job.
Wren has made it clear the Braves aren’t looking for another starting pitcher, because they believe they have eight capable starters for five spots: John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, Glavine, Hampton (if healthy come April; gigantic “if”), Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes, Jair Jurrjens, and Jeff Bennett.
Now, could another starter fall in their lap through an expanded winter-meetings trade? Sure. But I really don’t expect that to happen. I expect the Braves to focus on their center-field and lefty reliever needs.
And judging from what seems like a less-than-aggressive approach regarding Mahay, I think the Braves have likely decided pretty much that his price tag is going to be out of their range. Maybe they’ll get aggressive next week and make him an offer, but I haven’t heard any indications of that yet.
B. Jones, Lillibridge, etc.: Asked Wren about Brandon Jones playing center field in the Mexican Winter League, and the GM said just what I suspected: Means only that that’s where Navajoa had a need. Braves aren’t considered him for center field, at all. “He’s not a center fielder at the upper levels,” Wren said, reiterating that the Braves plan on him remaining a corner outfielder….
Brent Lillibridge still hasn’t played any winter ball because of that wrist tendinitis he had at the end of the season. Wren said they’ll decide in the next week whether he’ll play this winter or just continue to work out and prepare for spring training. I asked about the possibility of the highly rated shortstop prospect being a utility candidate for the major league club, whether that’s something the Braves would consider, or if they believed he’s still at the stage where he needs to be playing every day in the minors rather than serving as a backup on the major league team.
“We’ll have a better sense of that in the spring,” Wren said. “Most anybody would tell you that if a young guy is not going to get a lot of at-bats, he’s better off staying in the minor leagues. But if there’s a way to get him at-bats, maybe you feel differently. In general, I’d tell you it’s better off to play.”
Alright, that turned into a very long blog.
let’s turn things over to The Possum….
“A GOOD YEAR FOR THE ROSES” by Jerry Chestnut (best sung by George Jones)
I can hardly bear the sight of lipstick
On the cigarettes there on the ashtray
Lying all the way you left them
But at least your lips caressed them
While you packed
Or the lip ring on a half filled cup of coffee
That you poured and didn’t drink
But at least you thought you wanted it
That’s so much more than I can say for me
What a good year for the roses
Many blooms still linger there
Lawn could stand another mowing
Funny I don’t even care
As you turned to walk away
As the door behind you closes
The only thing I have to say
It’s been a good year for the roses
After 3 full years of marriage
It’s the first time that you haven’t made the bed
I’ll guess the reason we’re not talking
Is so little left to say we haven’t said
While a million thoughts go racing through my mind
I find I haven’t said a word
From the bedroom the familiar sound
Of young babies crying goes unheard
What a good year for the roses
Many blooms still linger there
Lawn could stand another mowing
Funny I don’t even care
As you turned to walk away
As the door behind you closes
The only thing I have to say
It’s been a good year for the roses
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