AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2007 > November > 01
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Braves already heating up Hot Stove
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Help me, Merle, I’m breaking out in a Nashville rash….
Actually, it’ll be another month before we head to Music City for the Winter Meetings, but the Hot Stove talk has already been stoked and figures to intensify exponentially between now and the annual big meetings the first week of December.
Will the Braves have added at least one accomplished starting pitcher and replacement center fielder to their roster by then? I’d say probably on the pitcher, probably not on the center fielder.
So many teams and free agents wait to trade or sign during and especially right after the winter meetings, and I don’t know why this winter would be any different.
The question so many Braves fans have, will they sign Tom Glavine and when, is difficult to answer because both sides are playing it so close to the vest. Of the many things that Frank Wren learned as John Schuerholz’s assistant the past seven seasons, desire for secrecy is unfortunately one of them.
But if you’re asking me my gut feeling, I say the Braves will sign the 41-year-old lefty and that it will get done before the winter meetings, probably at a price closer to $10 million than so many fans will be comfortable with, but hey, the market is the market. He’ll take a discount to pitch for Atlanta, but if he can get $12 million from another team, it’s a bit much to ask him to take $7 mill to pitch for the Braves.
Then again, maybe the Nationals or Cardinals or some other team won’t make him an offer as high as I anticipate at least one will. If not, if those teams are convinced he’s pitching for the Braves (or Mets) and no one else, then maybe they don’t bother going through the motions. In that case, the Braves could benefit by getting him a bit cheaper than they might otherwise.
Still, I think it’ll probably take more than $8 million in a one year deal, perhaps with a mutual option and a small buyout.
But we’ll soon have a much better idea. The Braves and other teams can talk contract with Glavine until Nov. 13, after the 15-day exclusive negotiating window for teams to talk money with their own free agents. The Braves and other teams can talk to Glavine now, just aren’t supposed to talk financial terms until after the 10-day period, which began the day after the World Series.
We went into the offseason with me anticipating the Braves would sign Glavine and also make a move for at least one more younger, affordable pitcher. I was thinking someone along the likes of Blanton from Oakland, but can’t say now whether they’ll still try to make something like that happen.
I say this because the Renteria trade brought the young right-handed prospect from Detroit, Jair Jurrjens, who pitched well for the Tigers in a few of his seven starts late last season and looks ready to compete for a spot in the Braves’ rotation, which has a growing list of candidates for the back two spots should the Braves sign Glavine.
Think about it, they’d have Hudson and Smoltz, then Glavine if they sign him, then Hampton ($15 mill next season, so I’d suggest to you he’s gonna be in the rotation if he’s healthy), then Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes, Jurrjens and possibly another journeyman or prospect all competing for one spot (or two spots if Hampton’s not ready).
So while it wouldn’t surprise me if the Braves still look to acquire another proven starter, I’d also not be surprised if they don’t. Of course, if they don’t sign Glavine, then of course they’ll be going after another proven starter via trade or free agency.
For those wondering about Curt Schilling — look, it’s nice for the Braves that he put them on his list of 13 teams and all that, because it sends a signal to other pitchers and free agents, a reminder that the Braves are still a well-run, competitive organization.
But unless the asking price for Glavine simply goes higher than the Braves are willing to go, then there’s no reason they’d turn to Schilling. I just can’t imagine any team entering a season with three 40-something pitchers in the first four spots of your rotation (Smoltz, Glavine, Schilling). No way.
— Center field still vacant: I know, this just in…. But seriously, the center field situation is going to be interesting. Maybe it’ll get settled soon, but I haven’t heard anything yet to indicate the Braves are close to making a move for a proven CF.
Then again, no one here or in Detroit knew they were as close as they were to making the Renteria-for-two-prosects deal on Monday, either. But if you’ll recall, I did say several times in recent weeks that the Renteria-Detroit thing was one to keep an eye on, because of the Leyland-Renteria connection.
Anyway, center field. I know the Braves have sent signals out indicating they wouldn’t be averse to plugging in the kid Jordan Schafer out there, pointing out that Rafael Furcal made the jump directly from A-ball to the majors.
But I’m not buying that. Furcal was a notable exception, blessed with blazing speed (nearly 100 steals in his final minor league season) and a cannon arm. The Braves knew that, at worst, he’d be able to slap balls on the ground and beat out plenty of hits, and that his speed at the top of their order would be a huge asset as a rookie. Turns out he surpassed all expectations as a rookie.
But can’t see them throwing a kid (Schafer) into the CF job after one impressive season in A-ball (his first two years in minors weren’t much). I do believe Schafer will be ready in a year or two, but not now.
Brent Lillibridge, on the other hand, could be a legitimate option if the Braves don’t like the free-agent price tags for CFs or aren’t willing to purge more prospects in a trade for a CF when they’ve now got two elite CF prospects in the wings (Schafer and the blazing speedster Gorkys Hernandez, 20, who came with Jurrjens from Detroit in exchange for Renteria).
(While we’re at it, how ‘bout that Renteria-for-Andy Marte trade from two years ago? Talk about the trade that could keep giving … the Braves got two outstanding seasons out of Renteria, now might also have a long-term starting pitcher and center fielder out of it. What’s Marte done in the interim? If we’re gonna bust on the Braves for some trades that didn’t work out as they hoped, also need to acknowledge the ones that worked out even better than planned.)
Anyway, Lillibridge has excelled in the high minors, he’s a few years older than Schafer, and he played center field at the Univ. of Washington four years ago as a freshman, when he had his best college season.
If the Braves play him in center field in the second half of the winter-ball season, or even if they only play him there in spring training, it’d be enough time for him to brush up on his outfield play. It’s not like Kelly Johnson, who moved to second base after one winter of workouts at Turner Field and spring training, after never playing the right side of the infield and after missing the entire 2006 season.
The drawback, if there is one, is that Lillibridge is an outstanding shortstop, and do you want to move him from his natural position to center field? Would it hurt his potential trade value? The other side of that, however, is that if the Braves like him as much as I’m told they do, then they don’t want to trade him and want to have his offense in their lineup, and of course they have a shortstop (Yunel Escobar) who should be a fixture for years to come.
If he’s more valuable to the team as a center fielder this season than he is as trade bait, then by all means, the Braves should put Lillibridge out there and spend the money on pitching - both starting and relief — and on the raises that several current Braves are going to get anyway.
Mike Cameron’s 25-game suspension for a second positive test for banned stimulants will make the soon-to-be 35-year-old CF a little cheaper on the free-agent market, but probably still not as cheap as the Braves might find suitable.
All you need to know is that Cameron wasn’t much interested in a two-year, $20 mill offer the Padres were prepared to make in April, according to my buddy Tom Krasovic, who covers the Padres for the S.D. paper. He reportedly wanted three years and $36 mill.
I liked the idea of Cameron as a stopgap measure for a year or two until Schafer’s ready (or until Hernandez is ready, whoever’s ready first). But not at $10 mill a year, much less $12 mill a year, and certainly not for three years.
And if they signed him now, they’d have to have someone else play CF for April, which would be fine if they had a strong CF backup returning from last year. But Willie Harris ain’t the answer, folks. And he’s eligible for arbitration, so I don’t even think he’ll be back after his late-season slump.
And moving Jeff Francoeur? The Braves have no intentions of doing it, and no amount of fan (or columnist) discussion or suggestions is going to change their minds. Personally, I don’t think Frenchy has the range or the natural jumps on fly balls to play center at a high level. And besides, I like his arm in right field.
Ken Griffey Jr? In a word, no. Braves need someone they can count on for more than 80 games. Besides, if the Reds saw fit to move him from CF, what makes anyone believe the Braves would see fit to move him back there at his age?
As for Torii Hunter, folks probably need to realize that Hunter is probably going to get offers of at least five years, $75 mill, perhaps from the Yankees and very likely from the White Sox. The Braves aren’t interested in a long-term commitment to a high-priced CF, not when they’ve got pitching needs and certainly not when they’ve got two elite CF prospects in the pipeline.
Aaron Rowand? Same story, basically. He’ll command a long-term deal, at least three or four years at around $10 mill or more per year, maybe $12 mill per.
— Instant replay: Buster Olney was told that some GMs are planning to recommend limited use of instant replay during the General Managers meetings next week in Orlando. Good. I’m for it, but only on a very limited basis - specifically, a quick look at a TV monitor mounted nearby to determine whether balls are fair or foul, or whether homers hit this yellow line or that foul screen or whatever.
For close plays at the plate, I don’t know. I’d hate to slow the glacial pace of some games even more. For balls and strikes and other calls, absolutely not. No, no, no.
— Edgar will be missed, no doubt: In the clubhouse, the classy veteran was a true leader by example, taking Escobar under his wing and helping to transform him from a youngster who had some attitude problems in the minors, to a hard-working professional who handled himself well in his first season in the majors.
And at the plate, Renteria’s contributions in the No. 2 hole will be missed. You better believe that. There are very few who do the things he does in that role. Also, as ESPN research guru Mark Simon pointed out, here were Edgar’s averages with runners in scoring position the past six seasons — 2002: .372; 2003: .317; 2004: .286; 2005: .298; 2006: .293; 2007: .331.
— Great flicks, records: Saw two fine movies this week, one on the plane back from Denver (Talk To Me starring Don Cheadle, with an absolutely incredible R&B/soul soundtrack), and one at the theatre (Lars and the Real Girl starring arguably the finest young actor in a decade, Ryan Gosling, an entirely original flick that’s not for everyone, but will be a top-five movie this year for those who dig such unconventional, out-of-the-mainstream, brilliantly written and acted films. OK, was that review pretentious enough? But really, it’s great. But there are no shootings or sex scenes, so don’t say you weren’t warned).
Gonna go see Gone Baby Gone tonight. Heard nothing but good things about it.
OK, and who was it here who said Neil Young’s new album, Chrome Dreams II, was disappointing or that I wouldn’t like it. Man, I’ve gotta disagree strongly. I love it, especially the 18-minute “Ordinary People.” That stands with much of his best work. Terrific song, worth the price of admission alone, though there are several other great tunes on this record, too.
I’ll again offer my highest recommendation for the Shout Out Louds’ CD Our Ill Wills; which sounds a lot like The Cure when The Cure was still really, really good, which was quite a long time ago.
OK, and I probably shouldn’t admit this, but I actually really like one album by one of the new breed of country artists: Joe Nichols’ Real Things. I know, I know, I’ve said no under-30 country artists, at least not dude singers, are worth a damn. But this guy’s got the great old-school voice and the tunes aren’t like most of the overproduced garbage coming out of Nashville. I mean, just play the first two songs on this record, “Real Things” and especially “Another Side of You,” and his cover of Blaze Foley’s “If I Could Only Fly,” and tell me this cat doesn’t have a great sound.
Alright, I feel like I need to go put on some Merle Haggard now, after recommending such a relatively popular current country artist. Or some Neil. Yeah, that’s it.
WARNING: Extremely long song lyrics below. If you don’t like Neil Young, then skip to the comments and post away.
”ORDINARY PEOPLE” by Neil Young
In a dusty town
a clock struck high noon,
Two men stood face to face.
One wore black and one wore white,
But of fear there wasn’t a trace.
Two hundred years later
two hot rods drag race
through the very same place,
And a half a million people,
moved in to pick up the pace.
A factory full of people,
Makin’ parts to go to outer space.
A train load of people,
They were aimin’ for another place.
Out of town people.
There’s a man in the window
with a big cigar,
Says everything’s for sale.
The house and the boat
and the railroad car.
The owner’s gotta go to jail.
He acquired these things
from a life of crime,
Now he’s selling them
to raise his bail.
He was rippin’ off the people.
Sellin’ guns to the underground.
Tryin’ to help the people,
Lose their a@#
for a piece of ground.
Rippin’ off the people.
Skimmin’ the top when
there was no one around.
Tryin’ to help the people.
He was dealing antiques
in a hardware store,
But he sure had a lot to hide.
He had a backroom full
of the guns of war,
And a ton of ammunition besides.
Well, he walked with a cane,
Kept a bolt on the door
with five pit bulls inside.
Just a warning to the people,
Who might try to break in at night.
Protection from the people,
Selling safety
in the darkest night.
Tryin’ to help the people.
Get the drugs
to the street all right.
Ordinary people.
Well, it’s hard to say
where a man goes wrong,
Might be here
and it might be there.
What starts out weak
might get too strong,
If you can’t tell foul from fair.
But it’s hard to judge
from an angry throng,
Of hands stretched into the air.
The vigilante people.
Takin’ law into their own hands.
Conscientious people.
Crackin’ down on
the druglord’s land.
Government people.
Confiscatin’ all
the dealer’s land.
Patch-of-ground people.
Down at the factory,
they’re puttin’ new windows in.
The vandals made a mess of things,
And the homeless
just walked right in.
Well, they worked here once,
and they live here now,
But they might work here again,
They’re ordinary people.
And they’re livin’ in a nightmare.
Hard workin’ people.
And they don’t know
how they got there.
Ordinary people.
And they think that you don’t care.
Hard workin’ people.
Down on the assembly line,
they keep puttin’
the same thing out.
But the people today,
they just ain’t buyin’.
Nobody can figure it out.
Well, they try like hell
to build a quality end,
They’re workin’ hard
without a doubt,
They’re ordinary people.
And the dollar’s
what it’s all about.
Hard workin’ people.
But the customers are walkin’ out.
Lee Iacocca people.
Yeah, they look
but they just don’t buy.
Hard workin’ people.
Two out of work models
and a fashion slave,
Try to dance away
the Michelob night.
The bartender poured
himself another drink,
While two drunks sat
watchin’ the fight.
The champ went down,
then he got up again,
And then he went out like a light.
He was fightin’ for the people,
But his timing wasn’t right.
For Las Vegas people,
Who came to see a Las Vegas fight.
High rollin’ people,
Takin’ limos
though the neon night.
Fightin’ for the people.
And then a new Rolls Royce
and a company car,
They went flyin’ down the street.
Each one tryin’
to make it to the gate,
Before employees manned the fleet.
The trucks full of products
for the modern home,
Set to roll out into the street,
Of downtown people,
Tryin’ to make their way to work.
Nose-to-the-stone people,
Some are saints, and some are jerks.
Hard workin’ people,
Stoppin’ for a drink
on the way to work.
Alcoholic people,
Yeah, they’re takin’ it
one day, one day at a time.
Out on the railroad track,
they’re cleanin’ up number 9.
They’re scrubbin’ the boiler down,
well, she really is lookin’ fine.
Ah, she’s lookin’ so good,
they’re gonna
bring her back on line.
Ordinary people.
They’re gonna bring
the good things back.
Nose-to-the stone people.
Put the business back on track.
Ordinary people,
I got faith in the regular kind.
Hard workin’ people.
Patch-of-ground people.
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