AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2007 > October > 05
Friday, October 5, 2007
Braves, Glavine to dance again?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
He will decline his $13 million option with the Mets sometime this afternoon, at which point begins with the Braves the Tom Glavine Ultimatum, Part 2 (or is it Part 3?)
The Braves want him, and he definitely wants the Braves. So please, for all that is Holy (and for the vacation and comp time I’d like to take in November) can GM John Schuerholz and agent Gregg Clifton please settle this negotiation early, this time around?
There’s no need for it to drag out to early December like it did last year, when Glavine finally said “enough” and returned to the Mets after the Braves dragged their feet on making him an offer, with the explanation that they were scrambling to clear up payroll before they could make him an offer, and that it might have come in a day or two if he hadn’t called off the process before the annual baseball winter meetings.
No excuses for the Braves this time, unless it’s just, they don’t want to pay Glavine as much as he wants to be paid. There’s no question he’ll take a hometown discount, compared to the $13 mill he would make from the Mets if he returned to them. I’d guess he’d take less than $10 mill to return to the Braves, and that it will only take a one-year commitment to get it done.
He’s 41, wants to be around his family in Alpharetta instead of flying his wife and kids to New York or some other place on weekends during the school year, and wants to finish his career with Bobby Cox, John Smoltz and the Braves.
Make it happen. Not because Glavine’s an ace at the peak of his career, but because he’s still a very good middle-rotation-quality starter who’ll pitch like a No. 1 or No. 2 many nights, who’ll probably give you 200 innings and 34-45 starts like he has every season, and be a great influence on young pitchers such as lefties Jo-Jo Reyes and Chuck James, assuming they’re still here.
If you can get him for $9 mill, give or take a mill, in this market that’s a bargain. And also - this is important - because it’s only a one-year commitment, it should permit the Braves to go hard after a trade for a younger quality starter, a guy like Oakland’s Dan Haren or Joe Blanton, who could be available only because perpetually tight-budgeted Oakland needs to reload with prospects and knows it might have to dump one of its quality young arms to get a few young players in return.
I’m not for cleaning out the minor league system, especially after the Braves already traded several top prospects to get Mark Teixeira, but if you could get Dan Haren, a potential top-of-rotation guy who’s got three seasons left on a very reasonable four-year, $12.65 mill contract that includes salaries of $2.2 mill in 2007, $4 mill in 2008, $5.5 mill in 2009 and a $6.75 mill club option for 2010, then you do it, even if it costs you a good young prospect or two such as Brent Lillibridge and/or Reyes, or perhaps a couple of prospects and a Kelly Johnson.
Haren’s a young ace with an affordable contract. Nothing is more valuable or important to most teams. The A’s would only be trading him because they know that and know they have other pitching and could fill a couple of holes. Again, not certain they would trade him now, but it’s possible.
Blanton has won 14, 14 and 15 games the past three seasons, averaged over 220 innings in that stretch, and had 192 strikeouts in 222 innings this season with a 3.07 ERA in the AL. He’s 6-foot-5, solidly put together, and only 26 years old. He could be a durable rotation leader for a long time, or co-leader (while Hudson’s here).
Don’t know if they can get him, but they can sure try. I hear from reliable sources out West that Haren and/or Blanton will be available this winter or next. If they couldn’t get Haren, Braves could probably pry Blanton away this winter. He’s not nearly as good, but he’s solid, especially as a No. 3-4 guy.
And Blanton wouldn’t require as much in trade, and has three seasons to go before he’s eligible for free agency. He’s a first-time arbitration guy, has won 30 games the past two seasons (14-10 this year), and pitched 230 innings this season with a 3.95 ERA.
You would pay Glavine and either one of these guys less combined in 2008 and than you’d pay any of the few good free-agent pitchers on the market, and about $5-7 million or more less than you’d have to pay a Johan Santana in 2008 (not that he’s a Braves option; too rich for this payroll).
Imagine, if you will, a Braves rotation with Smoltz, Hudson, Haren (or Blanton), Glavine, and Hampton (if healthy, he has to be in it because of salary). If Hampton’s not healthy, then you go Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes or Jeff Bennett, or maybe even Manny Acosta (he’s going to work as a starter this winter, see if that role might fit him; Braves already know he can be a real good reliever).
Folks, you win the NL East with that rotation, regardless of who you get to replace Andruw (and we can cover that later, though I think Mike Cameron is a serious candidate, more so by the day. Randy Winn would also be a good option).
Oh, and one more obvious reason to bring back Glavine: It would be a great story for the Braves, who’d have Smoltz and Glavine back together for what could be Bobby Cox’s final season.
I know Glavine has detractors for things he said more than a decade ago, for his union leadership, and for going to the Mets as a free agent five years ago.
And I certainly respect those views. I really do.
But consider that there are going to be no better bargains (or ones requiring only one-year commitments) among pitching free agents than Glavine, who was 13-6 with a 3.88 ERA in his first 31 starts this season, before stumbling big-time at 0-2 with a 14.81 ERA in his last three starts.
John Smoltz and Tim Hudson were 30-16 with a 3.15 ERA this season and combined for 430 innings. But of the eight others who started games for the Braves, only Chuck James (11-10, 161-1/3 innings) and Buddy Carlyle (8-7, 104 innings) had as many as five wins or 90 innings.
Add Glavine and a Haren or Blanton (or a lesser-but-durable pitcher from elsewhere), and without spending a ton in 2008 you’ve transformed a rotation that went just 58-58 this season and pitched only 917 innings, with a 4.45 ERA that ranked 7th in the NL.
The only NL rotations that produced fewer innings were the injury-riddled units with the Cardinals, Nationals and Marlins, who had the three worst starters’ ERAs in the league.
Glavine can’t file for free agency until after the World Series, like everyone else. And the Braves aren’t permitted to talk to him or other free agents, at least not officially, before then.
But if the Braves aren’t ready with an offer in early November, as soon as its permitted, or if they low-ball Glavine by asking him to take $6-7 mill, then they have no one to blame but themselves and should expect no sympathy.
If they don’t want him because they believe he doesn’t have enough left, well, then say it. But Bobby Cox has said repeatedly that Glavine has plenty left, and Smoltz has said he’s still as good as ever (I don’t buy that, but Smoltz knows a hell of a lot more about pitching than I do, so I’ll assume Glavine at least is still good).
It’ll get done this time, I’m pretty sure. But Glavine’s agent is another one that Schuerholz doesn’t have on his Christmas card list, so you never know.
By the way, if not Glavine, how about a one-year offer for Curt Schilling? Would his personality be a good fit for the Braves? I don’t think so, at all. But for one year….
Hey, just tossing it out there.
And while I’m tossing stuff out there, how’ bout the Braves’ supposed reasoning for not signing Andruw, part of which was that they didn’t believe Boras or Andruw would consider a one-year deal based on Boras’ quotes in my story?
Come on. If you don’t want Andruw back, say it. But you gotta at least call Boras and go, we’ll make him a one-year offer at [low salary figure here].”
If you don’t do that, you should just say, “We weren’t interested in bringing him back because we want to spend his salary on pitching.” Folks would understand that. Just don’t tell us you didn’t think Boras and Andruw would consider a cheaper, short-term deal when you never actually proposed one.
Boss and other new tunes: Spent too much at my buddy Don’s CD store at Toco Hill shopping center couple days ago, but got some great stuff including the new Okkervil River and Iron And Wine CDs, both really, really good.
If you haven’t got it yet (and I’m sure all Boss fans have), I’d highly recommend the new Springsteen album, “Magic,” which I think is his best since “Tunnel of Love.” It’s not up to standards of, say, “The River,” but it’s really, really good.
And I hadn’t heard of this “About a Son” Kurt Cobain movie that’s coming out, but I got the soundtrack with tuns by everyone from David Bowie (“The Man Who Sold the World”) and Mark Lanegan to REM, the Melvins and Arlo Guthrie. Good stuff.
Also got new solo discs by Thurston Moore (from Sonic Youth) and Black Francis (aka Frank Black, from Pixies). Both are very strong, and the Black Francis CD is the closest thing he’s done to hard, raw Pixies rock.
One more thing: if you haven’t heard Mary Gauthier, check her out online. Really dark, bluesy folk, has two albums out, the latest just released couple weeks ago produced by brilliant Joe Henry.
OK, that’s it. Gonna go see “Into The Wild” tonight after watching some baseball, hopefully. Great reviews for it, everywhere I’ve seen it reviewed.
”I’M A LONESOME FUGITIVE” by Liz Anderson (sung by Merle Haggard)”
Down every road there’s always one more city
I’m on the run, the highway is my home
I raised a lot of cane back in my younger days
While Mama used to pray my crops would fail
I’m a hunted fugitive with just two ways:
Outrun the law or spend my life in jail
I’d like to settle down but they won’t let me
A fugitive must be a rolling stone
Down every road there’s always one more city
I’m on the run, the highway is my home
I’m lonely but I can’t afford the luxury
Of having one I love to come along
She’d only slow me down and they’d catch up with me
For he who travels fastest goes alone
I’d like to settle down but they won’t let me
A fugitive must be a rolling stone
Down every road there’s always one more city
I’m on the run, the highway is my home
I’m on the run, the highway is my home
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