AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2007 > September > 26
Wednesday, September 26, 2007
Braves’ surge helping Chipper’s MVP cred
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
We’re watching something special here, folks, these Braves winning eight of their last nine, staging comeback win after comeback win, pulling themselves up off the proverbial canvas and getting back in the playoff race, going from impossibly long odds to, well, still long but at least reasonable enough to consider.
And even if it ends tonight — if, say the Braves lose and the Padres win (which would put Atlanta four games behind the San Diego with four to go) — then it was still impressive, wasn’t it? Maddening, I’m sure, for Braves Nation and the denizens here who wanted so much to believe in them back in July and August, when they kept frittering away opportunities in “must-win” series and such.
But it’s still enjoyable, isn’t it, for you folks to watch these games? Has to be, admit it. And it should at least give the Braves and their fans something to remember for next season, a reminder of how good this team should be, and how it’s imperative to get your act together early and not wait too long just because the 162-game season is so epic.
Just imagine, a few of those leads they blew, a few of those games when they left bases loaded … OK, I’ll stop torturing you.
Anyway, let’s get to this MVP thing I wanted to blog about real quickly before I head over to the ballpark.
I still don’t think Chipper Jones will win the league MVP award, primarily because he’s played only 129 games and three of the other four top candidates (Prince Fielder, Matt Holliday David Wright) have played more than 150.
Fielder’s hit .291 with 50 homers, 119 RBIs, .392 OBP and a 1.017 OPS. He’s a terrific force and the Brewers wouldn’t have a prayer without him.
Holliday has hit .338 with 48 doubles, 36 homers and 131 RBIs, albeit with a .374 average, 25 homers and a 1.159 OPS at Coors Field, compared to .300 with 11 homers and an .858 OPS on the road.
Wright’s hit .322 with 30 homers, 105 RBIs and a .964 OPS, and if he weren’t doing it in New York and ESPN wasn’t calling him MVP every other night, I don’t think he’d really be considered a top-three candidate. He shouldn’t be.
Reigning MVP Ryan Howard, who I’m assuming is still in the top five in many voters’ eyes, has played 139 games for the Phils. While his 43 homers and 127 RBIs are impressive, his .264 average and major league-record tying 195 strikeouts in 511 at-bats are not. Besides, four other Phillies have 22 or more homers, and Howard might not even be their team MVP — Chase Utley’s hit .336 with 22 homers and 101 RBIs in 127 games, and has a .991 OPS to Howard’s .957. And don’t forget SS Jimmy Rollins, who’s hit .293 with 84 extra-base hits (18 triples, 30 homers, 134 runs and 91 RBIs. Damn, do they have some punch.
Which brings us back to Chipper, and I can already hear a legit counter-argument that he might not even be the Braves’ MVP, since I’ve said myself that Edgar was the team MVP before he got hurt, and hey, Mark Teixeira might be their MVP since they got him July 31, hitting 15 homers and 52 RBIs in 50 games.
But take a look at what Chipper’s done, and you might see why I think some voters who wait until the end of the regular season to vote, like you should in a close race, are probably considering shifting their votes to Hoss.
He’s hit a league-high .340 with 41 doubles, 28 homers and 100 RBIs, with a .428 OBP and a league-leading 1.036 OPS.
On the road, he’s hit a majors-leading .360 with 53 RBIs and a 1.090 OPS in 61 games.
Against right-handers, he’s hit a majors-leading .383 (yes, .383) with 52 extra-base hits (21 homers), 72 RBIs and an 1.181 OPS.
Here’s something to think about: The Braves have had a flukish season in that they’ve faced far more lefties than any other major league team; think if they’d had a couple more at-bats against righties, an amount similar to the breakdown for most teams? I’m just saying…
OK, since his return from the DL in mid-June, he’s hit .359 with 46 extra-base hits, 73 RBIs and a .444 OBP in 87 games.
Since the Braves added Teixeira to the lineup behind him, Chipper has hit .341 with 11 homers, 44 RBIs, 44 runs and a 1.068 OPS in 46 games.
And in his past 27 games, Chipper has hit .374 with eight homers and 32 RBIs.
Hey, I think Prince Fielder will win it, and I wouldn’t argue that he’s not deserving. But you really have to consider Chipper Jones, don’t you?
If he’d just played in that Mets series a couple weeks ago, got a key hit or two in that series, gotta wonder if he might be considered a favorite about now.
Leadoff next season? Whether or not the Braves keep Kelly Johnson at second base next season or trade him, they might have found another solid leadoff hitter.
Because as good as Kelly was in the role, rookie Yunel Escobar has been about as good or even better. (I’m still amazed at some of the things I see this Cuban rookie do. Escobar is seriously good, people).
This came to my attention today, when I decided to look up the leadoff on-base percentage guys after Escobar had two doubles in the role last night.
And I was surprised by what I found: Escobar leads NL leadoff men with a .414 OBP hitting in the No. 1 spot in the lineup. Kelly still has enough plate appearances to qualify and is fifth with a .375 OBP (yes, the Braves have two of the top five NL leadoff OBPs, with Hanley Ramirez, Cincy’s Norris Hopper and Rickie Weeks between Escobar and K.J.)
Escobar has hit .364 (52-for-143) with 14 doubles and two homers as a leadoff man.
By the way, his .331 overall average includes a .352 mark (82-for-233) in his past 68 games.
Phillies didn’t get memo: That, or the Phillies are ignoring the script that was sent out to all NL teams 10 days ago, the one titled “Unflappable Braves Rally for Wild Card.”
I say this because they’ve decided not to pitch Adam Eaton on Thursday. Eaton, of the plus-6.00 ERA that includes a plus 11.00 ERA vs. the Braves.
No, they’re going with rookie Kyle Kendrick, who is 4-1 with a 3.63 ERA in his past seven starts.
The Phillies supported the kid with a whopping 40 runs during the 25-2/3 innings he pitched in those four wins. Imagine what John Smoltz might do with such run support?
Smoltz, who goes against Kendrick in the series finale, is 4-1 with a 2.77 and 2.17 ERA during 10 consecutive quality starts since Aug. 8, including three in which the Braves scored only one run while he was in.
OK, that’s it’s I’m running late. Gotta file this.
“BOOMTOWN” by Greg Brown
Here come the artists with their intense faces,
with their need for money and quiet spaces.
They leave New York, they leave L.A.
Here they are — who knows how long they’ll stay
It’s a Boomtown
got another Boomtown
and it’ll boom
just as long as boom has room.
Here come the tourists with their blank stares,
with their fanny packs — they are penny millionaires.
Something interesting happened here long time ago.
Now where people used to live their lives the restless come and go.
Nice to meet you, nice to see you
in a sheepskin coat made in Korea.
Welcome to the new age, the new century.
Welcome to a town with no real reason to be.
The rich build sensitive houses and pass their staff around.
For the rest of us, it’s trailers on the outskirts of town.
We carry them their coffee, wash their shiny cars,
hear all about how lucky we are to be living in a …
The guy from California moves in and relaxes.
The natives have to move — they cannot pay the taxes.
Santa Fe has had it. Sedona has, too.
Maybe you’ll be lucky — maybe your town will be the new…
It’s a Boomtown
got another Boomtown
and it’ll boom
just as long as boom has room.
‘Slim’ hasn’t left town
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Braves still have a chance to make the playoffs.
Yes, what seemed like an impossibility more than a week ago, is now not out of the question. Heck, Major League Baseball didn’t even include the Braves in tie-breaker coin flips, but we’ve had a near perfect storm since. The Braves have won 9 of 10 games and the teams in front of them — the Mets, Phillies in the NL East and the Padres in the wildcard race — have struggled.
With five games to go, the Braves trail the Mets by four games. If the Braves win out and the Mets lose out, the Braves could still win the division. However, the Mets’ magic number over the Braves is two, meaning any combination of Mets wins and Braves losses that equal two and a division title is out. Baseball Prospectus’ website lists the Braves’ chances of winning the division as .16320 of a percent (The Mets are listed at 91.57880 percent and the Phillies are listed at 8.25890).
The wildcard race is much more complicated. The Braves are three games out with three teams in front, but anything is possible. Even if the Braves win the rest of their games, the Padres would need to win only three of their remaining five games to clinch the wildcard. Or if the Padres falter, the Rockies would need to win only three of their remaining five to clinch the wildcard. If the Braves were to lose one of their remaining five games the Padres would need to win just two more games.
Come back tomorrow for an update.
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