AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2007 > September > 17
Monday, September 17, 2007
Braves can’t beat Mets, but Phillies do
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Two weeks left in this difficult Braves season, and the question arises: Who will be mathematically eliminated from the playoffs earlier, the Braves or the Falcons?
We kid.
Sort of.
Yet these surely must be disappointing times for hometown-centric fans of Atlanta pro-sports teams. For when is the last time late September felt so, well, so empty in our fair city?
Whether you liked their playoff chances or not, at least the Braves were always gearing up for the postseason at this stage of the game, often having left the rest of their division in their tracks weeks before and set the auto-pilot during late September, for better or worse.
(Speaking of that, someone should tell the Mets the auto-pilot setting isn’t prudent when you’re talking about a lead under five games. It’s also inadvisable with a 10-game lead, as the Braves found out so many times when the postseason began. But that’s another story. At least the Brave always got there before blowing it; the Mets seem determined to make getting there less than a given.)
Oh, well, at least the weather’s beautiful in Atlanta, our 105-degree days having morphed into crisp 78-degree afternoons in a span of only a couple of weeks (uh, I’m not weatherman, but is that normal?).
A hint of fall in the air these cool mornings means October baseball is just around the corner and … oh, sorry. There we go again.
You had to wonder if the Braves were looking at the out-of-town scoreboard at RFK Stadium over the weekend and wondering how the Phillies keep doing it - how do they keep beating the Mets in crucial series down the stretch?
Philly swept them in three games over the weekend in New York, when a Mets series win, or even one win in three games, would’ve gone a long way toward putting the Phillies’ longshot division-title hopes to rest.
Mets couldn’t do it. Couldn’t win one game against them.
Mets certainly know how to beat the Braves in crucial series, as they have each of the past two seasons. But the Phillies have won eight consecutive games against them, including two sweeps down the stretch this season.
Face it: The Mets probably aren’t as good as Braves made them look lately. The Braves are a very flawed team, obviously. But that’s beside the point. I mean, seriously, six errors on Sunday for the Mets? Six errors in a crucial game?
And good luck winning a playoff series or two when you can’t beat the Phillies in a home series in late September that would have, for all intents and purposes, clinched the division title.
Then again, the Mets have a better road record (43-31) than home (40-34). So maybe they’d be better off sliding into the wild card and letting the Phillies win the division.
After all, winning the NL East hasn’t done much for teams’ World Series chances in recent years, has it? And winning the wild card has worked out well a couple times for a certain other NL East team, if I remember correctly.
For all those who think the Mets are the antithesis to the Braves’ button-downed, stoicism, here was something from today’s NY Times regarding the weekend sweep of the Mets:
“…. It is reasonable to ask: Do these Mets have the hunger, focus and maturity to contend for a World Series title? In their postgame clubhouse, their collective demeanor showed little emotion as they packed for a seven-game trip that begins tonight in Washington.”
Here a Jones, there a Jones…. So what are the odds of the Braves having three Joneses in the lineup on a regular basis next season?
Or how ‘bout this: What are the odds of simply having two of three Joneses making an impact in the lineup together between now and the end of September?
The way Andruw’s going, the best hope of the latter occuring might be if rookie Brandon Jones has a big game or two to coincide with Chipper Jones’ continued surge. Because Andruw isn’t exactly roaring into that interesting offseason, is he?
Some statistics that Scott Boras will probably not include in the spiral-bound book he’s preparing for Andruw Jones’ pending free agency: In 118 games since May 2, Jones has hit .210 with 19 homers, 69 RBIs, 49 walks, 103 strikeouts, a .292 OBP and a .387 slugging percentage.
In his past 50 games, he’s hit .219 with five homers, 23 RBIs and a .299 OBP. He’s grounded into more double plays (seven) than he’s hit homers in that stretch.
In his past 14 games, Andruw has hit .152 (7-for-46) with one double, four RBIs and a .174 slugging percentage.
While Chipper Jones (.335) and Edgar Renteria (.334) compete with Colorado’s Matt Holliday (.334), Philly’s Chase Utley (.334) and others for the NL batting title, Andruw Jones (.220) is trying to avoid the dubious distinction of having the lowest average among those with qualifying at-bats.
He’s got the second-worst average, better than only the decrepit Ray Durham (.217). It’s a big space between Jones and the next guys on the list, the spectacularly declining Marcus Giles (.228) and J.D.’s little bro Stephen Drew (.231).
3B’s absence way down list: Chipper is often maligned for his numerous injuries, and deservedly so. But it’s hard to put blame for the Braves’ late-season mediocrity at the feet of their third baseman, who’s played 79 of the past 84 games.
Of course, three that he missed were in the crucial series at New York a week ago, when the Braves lost two of three. But where would you rank the five games that Jones missed in the last 85 among reasons for the Braves’ 41-43 record in that span? (By the way, they were 40-39 with him, 1-4 without him in that span.)
Fact is, their poor and erratic starting pitching (after 1-2) and their lack of consistent hitting in the late innings are the primary reasons the Braves are almost certainly going to be sitting at home when the playoffs begin.
The Braves’ .286 average in the first through sixth innings is tied with Philadelphia for best in the National League, and Atlanta’s 543 runs in those innings trail only the Phillies (566).
But in the seventh innings and later, the Braves rank just eighth in the NL with a .253 average, and just 11th in the league with 207 runs.
So blame the bullpen for blowing a lot of leads earlier in the season if you want to, but hey, don’t be afraid to, you know, score a few runs in the late innings, either.
By the way, that often-maligned Braves bullpen has a 3.60 ERA that ranks third in the NL behind the Padres (3.07) and Dodgers (3.57). And the Braves’ 15 blown saves is tied with the Mets for fifth-fewest, one behind NL leaders Chicago, Arizona, L.A. and Colorado, who all have 14 blown saves.
San Diego has blown 20 of 60 save opportunities.
Speaking of Chipper: He’s hit .354 with a .439 OBP and 64 RBIs in 79 games since returning from the DL.
He’s hit .356 with six homers, 23 RBIs and a 1.130 OPS (.690 slugging) in his past 21 games. The Braves only won 10 of those 21.
In his past 162 games since July 7 (I find this fascinating, which is why I keep going back 162 just to check), Jones has hit .340 (210-for-618) with 99 extra-base hits (51 doubles, 6 triples, 42 homers), 133 runs, 130 RBIs, a .425 OBP and a .646 slugging percentage.
In 81 road games during that stretch (yes, it breaks down to exactly 81 home and 81 road for him since July 7), he’s hit .370 (121-for-327) with 30 doubles, 5 triples, 22 homers, 70 RBIs, a .443 OBP and .694 slugging (1.137 OPS).
”TOO LONG IN THE WASTELAND” by James McMurtry
Hear the trucks on the highway/and the ticking of the clock
There’s a ghost of a moon in the afternoon/bullet holes in the mailbox
Bullet holes in the mailbox
Too long in the wasteland
Too long in the wasteland
I’ve fallen behind
She said why don’t you come see me/when the sun goes down
It’ll be just like the old days/when I used to let you hang around
Well I don’t know/I might not speak the language anymore
Too long in the wasteland
Too long in the wasteland
Will close some doors
The people in the village/watch their children play
At the sight of a stranger/they call the kids away
Just leave that man alone/I hear the mother say
He’s been too long in the wasteland
Too long in the wasteland
Is what made him that way
Well, I hadn’t intended/to bend the rules
But whiskey don’t make liars/it just makes fools
So I didn’t mean to say it/but I meant what I said
Too long in the wasteland
Too long in the wasteland
Must’ve gone to my head
Jet trail in the sunset/a long way away
Cutting ‘cross the horizon/at the edge of the day
And it calls Jimmy/come fly away
But I’ve been too long in the wasteland
Too long in the wasteland
I believe I’ll have to stay
Yeah, I’ve been too long in the wasteland
Too long in the wasteland
I believe I’ll have to stay
