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Friday, September 7, 2007
How does Frenchy stack up next to young Joneses?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
We’ve said that Chipper Jones would’ve been a leading MVP candidate each of the past couple of seasons if he’d not gotten hurt, if he played more. We’re not exactly going out on a limb with that expert analysis, obviously.
But to illustrate what we mean, take a look at these statistics, which show the old boy is still getting it done when he can avoid slipping on a wet field or tripping over a Pirates third baseman:
In his past 162 games before Friday night, Chipper Jones hit .343 with 53 doubles, 6 triples, 41 home runs, 130 runs, 130 RBIs, 92 walks, 90 strikeouts, a .425 on-base percentage and a .647 slugging percentage (1.072 OPS). And 14 errors.
And in 79 road games during that period, he’s hit .366 (yes, .366) with 30 doubles, 5 triples, 21 homers, 66 RBIs, a .434 OBP and .688 slugging percentage.
Holy Cornelia.
The knock, of course, is that you have to go to June 28, 2006 to get to 162 games for Chipper. The Braves have played 224 games in that stretch. That’s not ideal, sir.
Just FYI, Braves are 89-73 when Jones has played in that stretch, though that includes pinch-hit appearances, so it’s not really a great indicator either way, but it sounds good.
Why mention this today? No real reason, other than it’s the dog days, we’re not quite ready to start breaking down into detail the offseason projections and next year’s lineup (can we get a payroll idea first?), and I found it interesting when I stumbled on the stat while doing research on Jeff Francoeur.
Yes, Francoeur. So much debate about the right fielder on the blog the past couple days. Golden Boy, overachiever, franchise cornerstone, impatient bull-in-a-china-shop, underachiever…. the opinions seem to run the gamut. As they do in most open forums when a popular player is discussed.
It does seem safe to suggest the vast majority of folks here agree that he’s a solid young (23) player who’s still developing, who has flaws including his low walks and OBP, but whose overall solid skills set and drive/intensity make him a guy likely to be a fixture here for years.
Anyway, I just wanted to see how he might compare at this stage of his career with a couple of other Braves fixtures, the Jones Boys. Granted, this is strictly a numbers comparison, and there are many other factors such as age upon arrival, position on the field and in the lineup, supporting casts, etc., that must be weighed to make a better, more valuable comparison.
Also, I’m not suggesting if either of the Joneses is the career path that Francoeur is headed down. I really have no idea. Neither do you, I’d bet, if you’re being honest.
If I had to guess I’d say he’ll probably keep getting better for the next 3-4 years, level off, never have an MVP season like Chipper, never have 45-50 homers like Andruw, but will be a very solid player who’ll give you something like .280-.300, 25-35 homers, 40-45 doubles and 100-110 RBIs annually.
But back to the admittedly rudimentary comparison:
Francoeur has played 372 games since arriving from Class AA in the summer of 2005. He’s had 1,469 at-bats and hit .279 with 78 doubles, 7 triples, 59 homers, 234 RBIs, 67 walks, 301 strikeouts, 7 steals (in 17 attempts), a .316 OBP and a .462 slugging percentage (.778 OPS).
So I was curious. What had the Joneses done offensively at the same point (372 games) of their careers? (Not counting postseason, where young Andruw had quite a game in a World Series, if I remember correctly….)
Anyway, after 372 games, the numbers for Chipper and Francoeur were surprisingly close in few areas, with the notable exception of OBP and walks/strikeouts. Also, Chipper was a good base-stealer; Francoeur isn’t much of one at all.
After 372 games, Chipper had 1,375 at-bats and hit .289 (10 points higher than Francoeur) with 73 doubles, 8 triples, 62 homers, 245 RBIs, 195 walks, 228 strikeouts, 31 steals (in 36 attempts), a .374 OBP and a .489 slugging percentage (.863 OPS).
Yes, young Hoss was good. And remember, his rookie season was delayed a year by the ACL surgery for the spring-training knee injury in 1994, after his eight-game 1993 callup.
Andruw played 31 games in the majors in 1996 (after starting in A-ball and moving up through Double-A and Triple-A that same season), then platooned or plate late-innings defense for much of the 1997 season.
Anyway, after 372 games Andruw had 1,192 at-bats with a .254 average, 62 doubles, 13 triples, 59 homers, 198 RBIs, 118 walks, 286 strikeouts, 54 steals (in 72 attempts), a .324 OBP and .477 slugging percentage (.801 OPS).
A few things jump out for me immediately: Andruw used to be a serious threat on the basepaths before he bulked up and became a power hitter; Francoeur has three more homers and 15 more strikeouts than Andruw did in his first 372 games (Francoeur also has 183 more at-bats); and Andruw’s OBP was almost as bad as Francoeur’s at the outset of his career. Oh, and the Braves could use some steals about now (but that’s another story).
By the way, the Braves were 241-131 in Andruw’s first 372 games, 228-144 in Chipper’s and 190-182 in Francoeur’s. Based on my simple research, it appears the Braves were a whole lot better back then. But I could be wrong.
Also, here’s a bone tossed to our Mets interlopers: Just out of curiosity, how does the Mets’ Golden Boy stack up next to the Braves’ guys? Quite well, we’re here to report.
Metropolitates 3B David Wright got off to a better start than any of the Braves’ trio, including Chipper.
Wright in his first 372 games, through June 17, 2006, hit .304 with 99 doubles, 6 triples, 65 homers, 252 RBIs, 42 stolen bases (in 54 attempts), a .375 OBP and a .527 slugging percentage (.902 OPS). Wow.
Yes, it’s a different era than when Chipper broke in just before the homer explosion. But those Wright numbers are gaudy-good, especially next to Francoeur’s in the same era.
Wright’s only knock are the big error totals, which the Mets can certainly live with given his huge offensive production.
Nationals in town: And it might not be the pushover that the Braves and their fans would hope. Washington has a five-game winning streak with a 2.20 ERA in that span, albeit against San Fran and the floundering Fish of Florida.
Tonight it’s Nats rookie Joel Hanrahan (4-2, 5.14 ERA) making his eighth major league start against John Smoltz, who’s making his 8 millionth, or thereabouts. Smoltzy can only hope to get the kind of run support young Hanrahan has received in a couple of hits.
Do you guys realize that Smoltz has won just twice in his past eight home starts, despite a 3.48 ERA in that span? Braves have scored one or no runs while he’s been in five of his past eight home starts. Just awful support.
Tomorrow night it’s the enigmatic Chuck James, aka the Homer Serving Machine, against the spendidly named lefty Matt Chico, who is probably glad to face one of the few teams he’s had much success against.
Chico is 2-1 with a 2.87 ERA in three starts against the Braves, including wins in each of his last two starts against them. But since he beat them May 17 in D.C., guess how many wins he’s recorded? Two.
He’s got as many wins in three starts against the Braves this season as he’s got in his past 17 starts, a stretch that’s seen him go 2-3 with a 4.47 ERA and Smoltz-like run support (or lack thereof).
The Nationals are 9-8 in those past 17 starts by Chico, even though he’s only got two wins.
Oh, and by the way, his next road win will be his first. Chico is 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA in 11 road starts this season, and the Nats scored two or fewer runs while he was in seven of those games.
If he wins at Atlanta tomorrow, there’s no truth to the rumor the Braves will refund tickets purchased for the last homestand Sept. 17-23.
By the way, thought I’d sneak this Andruw stat here at the bottom: In 74 games since June 10, Andruw Jones has hit .226 with 13 homers, 42 RBIs, 63 strikeouts and a .307 OBP (.719 OPS).
“MY MY, HEY HEY (OUT OF THE BLUE)” by Neil Young
My my, hey hey/Rock and roll is here to stay
It’s better to burn out/Than to fade away
My my, hey hey.
Out of the blue/and into the black
They give you this,/but you pay for that
And once you’re gone,/you can never come back
When you’re out of the blue/and into the black.
The king is gone/but he’s not forgotten
This is the story/of a Johnny Rotten
It’s better to burn out/than it is to rust
The king is gone/but he’s not forgotten.
Hey hey, my my/Rock and roll can never die
There’s more to the picture/Than meets the eye.
Hey hey, my my.
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