AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2007 > September > 05
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
Where did Braves season hit the skids?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Where did this season go awry for the Braves? Where did it take a turn down Irrelevant Ave., a place where Braves teams never visited from 1991 through 2005? (And man, is this street a depressing neighborhood; it’s a gorgeous day at the ‘yard in early September, and I’m sitting here lookin at a mostly empty Turner Field 20 minutes before game time.)
(I should note, however, that the Braves’ Tomahawk Team has held up better than the Braves’ baseball team over this long and grueling season. Much better.)
Anyway, back to the fateful day. We’ve pinpointed it here before, but we’ll do it again for those who might not have been on the Braves/Man In Black blog every day this summer, the way you should have been.
It was May 13 at Pittsburgh, a sunny Sunday when the Braves absorbed a 13-2 whipping that ended a five-game winning streak and trimmed their lead in the NL East to a half-game. Yes, the Braves were 24-12 with a game-and-a-half lead before that series-ending loss to the Pirates.
They are 46-57 since then, at least before today’s series finale against the Phillies, which, contrary to rumors, will not be canceled due to lack of interest. The Phillies need to play the game just in case, you know, while their scoring has been almost identical (4.9 runs per game since July 13, compared to 5.0 before).
Has the pitching been the sole reason for the demise? Of course not. Absolutely not. But it’s been a huge reason. They’ve had spurts where they pitched great for a week or two, and in most of those cases the offense sputtered more often than not.
Fact of the matter is, this team just never has had a championship feel to it since, oh, some would say since the four-game skid against the Marlins and Cubs that began with the second game of a doubleheader with the Marlins.
Certainly they haven’t been viewed as a serious championship-caliber team since the disastrous 0-5 stretch against Boston and Detroit June 19-24, when the Braves scored one run in five games.
But there were enough three-game surges since then, and enough rampant parity/mediocrity (call it what you want to) in the NL to believe the Braves still had a chance of squeaking into the playoffs and, if Smoltz and Hudson were both hot, of doing some damage once they got there.
Then came the terrible West Coast trip in late July, when the Braves again revealed an alarming tendency to fold or stumble (call it what you want to) in close games. They lost four consecutive games at San Francisco and Arizona, each by two runs or fewer, including two extra-innings defeats that just sucked the life out of the team.
They haven’t been the same since. While their record has stunk since that Pittsburgh game in May, their overall demeanor, their performance, their toughness under pressure, their confidence … that’s all suffered since that West Coast trip.
Not even the addition of the best hitter on the trade market, a seriously good power hitter in Mark Teixeira, who drove in 32 runs in his first month with the team, could turn the tide on a season that’s careened off course.
The Braves now seem like a once-mighty train that went off the tracks and is lying on its side, a bit of smoke coming out in random bursts as its engine futilely chugs and sputters toward silence (smoke such as complaining about umpires — that by Chipper last night was just not good, and nothing productive ever come from those rants, not to mention it always sounds like sour graps regardless of how it’s phrased.)
What happened to this season? Too many things to put a finger on right now. But I did give Terry Moore a few of my thoughts to assist in some small way in a column he’s writing for tomorrow, some things better said in that forum than by me.
For now, I’m gonna score this game. It’s the first inning and surprise, the Phillies have runners on the corners against Hudson. And there goes an Aaron Rowan RBI single to left…. It’s gonna be a long September, folks.
Before we go… Wait, forgot that I had a few stats I wanted to share.
It probably won’t surprise any of you that Willie Harris is still in the lineup and still batting leadoff today. The ship’s going down, but Bobby Cox doesn’t show any indication of changing course at this point, despite Harris’ skid.
And man, it is a skid.
Harris is 3-for-47 (.064) in his past 17 games before today, with one RBI, one stolen base and a .151 on-base percentage. (AS I WRITE THIS, he just snapped an 0-for-25 streak with a single in the bottom of the first inning).
Statistically it’s Harris’ career-best season in most regards. But it’s a tale of two seasons for the 29-year-old outfielder, and the second of them has been, frankly, pretty awful.
Harris hit .383 with a spectacular .940 OPS (.440 OBP) in his first 45 games for the Braves through June 25. But in 58 games since then he’s hit .215 (38-for-177) with a .648 OPS (.309 OBP). Folks, he’s been mediocre to bad longer than he was good this season.
And despite that .309 OBP over 58 games, he remains in the leadoff spot on days he’s in left field, which is more days than not since he plays against right-handers and Matt Diaz against left-handers.
Look at those stats again — .215 average, .309 OBP, .339 slugging - since June 26, and compare them to a few other relevant players.
In that same period Diaz has hit .355 with a .397 OBP and .610 slugging percentage (not to mention eight homers, seven more than Harris has hit all season).
And how ‘bout the two other, better leadoff options? Glad you asked.
In that same span, since June 26, Kelly Johnson has hit .314 with a .404 OBP and .527 slugging percentage (not to mention 22 extra base hits and seven homers).
In that same span since June 26, Yunel Escobar (who is dropped from leadoff to eighth on days when Harris plays) has hit .349 with a .397 OBP and .457 slugging percentage.
There is no reason, no explanation given or plausible, for Harris to still be hitting leadoff.
And with the way he’s hit in recent weeks, plenty of folks wonder why he’s still playing at all ahead of Diaz, who was given what was apparently just a one-day trial as the regular left fielder when he played against a righty last week and went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts, after which it was back to the platoon.
By the way, it now seems clear the Braves were a better team with Johnson batting leadoff, doesn’t it? They were at least better at the leadoff position.
They went from leading the league in several leadoff categories when he was the guy, to ranking in the middle of the league in most leadoff categories now, including a .276 overall average that ranked eighth among NL teams from the leadoff position.
For the season, Harris has hit .228 with a .316 OBP and .357 slugging percentage in 171 at-bats from the leadoff spot. Escobar has hit .351 with a .385 OBP and .465 slugging percentage in 114 at-bats from the position in the lineup, and Johnson hit .284 with a .387 OBP and .470 slugging percentage in 264 at-bats from the leadoff spot before today.
Ahh, what are you gonna do? Pass the BBQ, please. And let’s go out with a tune from the classic Uncle Tupelo album, Anodyne.
”GIVE BACK THE KEY TO MY HEART” by Doug Sahm
Take my picture off the wall/It don’t matter to me at all
Said I was headed for a fall/But you wanted me to crawl
Give back my TV/It don’t mean that much to me
While you’re giving back my things/Give me back the key to my heart
Give back the key to my heart/Give back the key to my heart
And let my love flow like a river/Straight into your heart, dear
Well, you say I was the one/To blame for the wrong that’s been done
Well, you got a friend named cocaine/And to me he is to blame
He has drained life from your face/He has taken my place
While you’re alone in San Antone/Give me back the key to my heart
Give back the key to my heart/Give back the key to my heart
And let my love flow like a river/Straight into your heart, dear
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