AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2007 > August > 31
Friday, August 31, 2007
Time for sizzling Diaz to play every day?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Bobby Cox didn’t win four Manager of the Year awards from baseball writers, and eight Manager of the Year awards from Sporting News, by making lineup decisions based on the opinions of fans or media members.
So forget us, and make this move based purely on performance and statistical evidence that says it’s the right thing to do: Scrap the left-field platoon of Matt Diaz and Willie Harris and make Diaz the starter for the rest of the season.
The Braves have no remaining margin for error if they hope to make the postseason. None. But they do still have a chance heading into a weekend series against the NL East-leading Mets, who’ve lost five in a row and seven of nine to shrink their lead to two games over the Phillies and 4-1/2 over the Braves.
With the surging Phillies expected to beat up on the Marlins this weekend, the Braves need to do the same against the Mets to retain a realistic shot of winning the division title.
And they sure would seem to have a better chance of doing that with Diaz in the lineup, which he won’t be in the first two games if Cox continues using the platoon of Harris vs. right-handers and Diaz vs. lefties.
The Braves are scheduled to face righty starters in the first two games, John Maine (13-8, 3.68) tonight and Mike Pelfrey (0-7, 5.92) on Saturday, before going against lefty Tom Glavine in the series finale.
Diaz has the seventh-best average in the NL against lefties, .372. But he’s also hit well against right-handers, with a .331 average and .794 OPS in 124 at-bats.
Harris has a .304 average and .821 OPS in 257 at-bats against lefties, but the speedster did most of his damage in his first couple of months with the Braves, and he’s been in a woeful slump that’s gotten progressively worse.
Diaz has a team-high .354 overall average that includes a sublime .380 (92-for-242) with 18 doubles, 11 homers, 36 RBIs and a .999 OPS in 94 games since April 25.
He has blazed at a .381 clip over his past 50 games, with eight homers and a .667 slugging percentage in that span to quash the old scouting report that said he couldn’t hit for power.
On the just-completed road trip, Diaz went 14-for-31 (.452) in eight games, including three doubles, three homers and five RBIs in two starts against the Marlins Monday and Wednesday.
His .440 average (11-for-25) over the past 10 days was the fifth-highest in the NL. Meanwhile, Willie Harris’ .080 average (2-for-25) in the same span was the league’s lowest. Harris has hit .215 in 79 at-bats in August, to Diaz’ .403.
Make no mistake: It’s been a great season for Harris, who signed as a minor league free agent last winter with a non-roster invitation to spring training. He had a solid spring training but was passed over because of the non-roster thing and the fact the Braves had to carry Ryan Langerhans.
When they traded Langerhans a month into the season, Harris got the call from Richmond and saved the Braves’ tails, more or less, by playing his off. He played so well, he’s probably assured himself of a major league job for next season, and that’s cool. Good dude, and everyone should be happy for him.
But isn’t it time to make a change? Harris hit .412 with a .477 on-base percentage and .546 slugging percentage in his first 36 games for the Braves, with eight stolen bases in 10 attempts.
In his subsequent 63 games, he’s hit .236 with a .323 OBP and .357 slugging percentage, with nine stolen bases in 18 attempts (including one steal in his last six tries).
Yunel Escobar, who’s hitting .359 with 10 extra-base hits and a .407 OBP, can handle leadoff until Edgar Renteria gets back, then Escobar and Kelly Johnson could split the duties assuming they go back to their 2B platoon.
Meanwhile, Diaz is simply too hot to keep out of the lineup in more than half the games. He’s too hot to keep out of the lineup more than once or twice a week, at least while he keeps hitting like this.
Don’t take it as a suggestion from the media or fans. Just look at the numbers.
Has Diaz been so successful because of how Cox has wisely used him? Yes, and Diaz will be the first to tell you that. But at this point, he’s hitting righties and lefties whenever he gets a chance. His career numbers against righies — .314 with a .782 OPS in 322 at-bats - aren’t terrific, but are strong enough, especially the average, to tell us this probably isn’t a fluke.
Unless and until he proves otherwise in the next couple of weeks, shouldn’t Diaz get the chance to help the Braves on a daily basis at a time when they can’t afford to squander any opportunities?
The new East favorite? After the Phillies completed their four-game sweep of the Mets on Thursday, one experienced player who’s experienced a special postseason said this Philly team has developed a special feeling lately.
Aaron Rowand played center for the World Series champion White Sox two years ago. Now he’s a Phillies leader, and here’s what he told the Philly Inquirere’s Jim Salisbury about the sweep of the Mets:
“You look at three of the four games we won — a walk-off, a freak play, and another walk-off,” he said. “Those types of games are momentum and confidence builders. You can see it in the way guys take at-bats and the way guys walk around the clubhouse.
“I’ve played in games like this before. I remember we won one like this in the postseason in ‘05 and after that it was, ‘Game on. Nobody beats us.’ “
The Phillies lost four of the first five games of their homestand, then won the last five. Look out, folks.
Couple of stats:
— Braves reliever Rafael Soriano finally appears to have recaptured something close to his early season form. In his past 10 appearances he has a .175 opponents’ average and 1.64 ERA, with two runs, seven hits, one walk and 11 strikeouts in 11 innings. The only runs came on, you guessed it, homers. But he’s given up no runs since the homers in back-to-back appearances Aug. 8 & 11….
— Peter Moylan, meanwhile, is going strong into the final month of his very impressive season. He’s posted a 1.07 ERA and .171 opponents’ average, allowing 14 hits, three earned runs and seven walks with 15 strikeouts in 25-1/3 innings over that span.
OK, that’s it for me. I gotta do a quick XM radio thing with Charlie Steiner, then get ready and get to the ballpark for the series opener. I’m gonna try to get down to the fan plaza and see the presentation of the Wurlitzer Award to the Teixeira singers beforehand. Gotta see if the Grinch is green. Or just hairy.
”TEAR STAINED EYE” by Jay Farrar (Son Volt)
Walking down Main Street/Getting to know the concrete
Looking for a purpose from a neon sign
I would meet you anywhere the western sun meets the air
We’ll hit the road, never looking behind
Can you deny, there’s nothing greater
Nothing more than the traveling hands of time?
Sainte Genevieve can hold back the water
But saints don’t bother with a tear stained eye
Seeing traces of the scars that came before
Hitting the pavement still asking for more
When the hours don’t move along,
Worn-out wood and familiar songs
To hear your voice is not enough
It’s more than a shame
Can you deny, there’s nothing greater
Nothing more than the traveling hands of time?
Sainte Genevieve can hold back the water
But saints don’t bother with a tear stained eye
Like the man said, rode hard and put away wet
Throw away the bad news, and put it to rest
If learning is living, and the truth is a state of mind
You’ll find it’s better at the end of the line.
Can you deny, there’s nothing greater
Nothing more than the traveling hands of time?
Sainte Genevieve can hold back the water
But saints don’t bother with a tear stained eye
