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Monday, August 27, 2007
“Must” week for skidding Braves
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Do I know how to pick the right week to stay home, or what?
It’s not a sinking ship yet, this Braves vessel. But it’s taking on water at an alarming rate (does that make it sinking? I guess technically, it does).
Even the most optimistic fan would probably concur that a silica tile or two on this shuttle, er, team’s underside has been cracked, while going 3-8 and losing three straight series, including a 2-5 start to this 10-game trip.
Is it over? Statistically, no.
The division race is almost certainly over, since it would take a collapse by a Mets team that’s headed in the opposite direction, playing good ball and getting key contributions from previously underperforming or injured veterans.
But the wild-card race? Of course it’s not over. The Braves, with 31 games left on their schedule, are four games behind wild-card leader San Diego and one behind Philadelphia.
Which brings us to this week, here in humid South Florida. Folks, this is the biggest series of the season for the Braves. Yes, the biggest. And here’s why: They are facing the coldest team in the majors, a disheveled Marlins team that’s lost 11 of 12 games while posting a 5.59 ERA.
Meanwhile, the Padres are opening a four-game series against the NL West-leading Diamondbacks, who have a three-game lead over the Padres with a chance to bury them during this long weekend series at Petco Park (and no, the Padres aren’t a particularly strong home team, with a good-not-great 35-29 record).
(Of course, it doesn’t help Atlanta’s cause that the Braves have lost whatever early season road mojo they briefly had; they’re 6-12 in their past 18 games away from Atlanta and losing close ones left and right.)
Is there urgency or optimism in the Braves clubhouse? Don’t know. I’ll let you know after I get back in there today and after seeing how tonight’s game goes and how the Braves act afterward. I really can’t tell you how events of the past week have affected the collective psyche of the team, not until I attempt to get a feel for it myself.
It’s been a bad string of games at a most inopportune time, when the Mets were getting hot and the Braves came up against three teams, Arizona, Cincinnati and St. Louis, that earlier in the season - and not much earlier, in the cases of Cincy and St. Louis - seemed like they’d be pushovers, or close to it.
Instead, they lost two of three to an Arizona team that was the hottest in the NL when the Braves faced them. Then lost three of four at Cincy to a Reds team that since July 3 has the National League’s best record, at 29-19 and also has the league’s best record in the past 10 games, at 8-2.
And they lost two of three to a resurgent Cardinals team that looked absolutely dead in the water until Milwaukee collapsed and opened the door to a possible playoff berth. The Cards are, unbelievably, just two games out of first place in the NL Central, despite the fact they are 63-64 and have been below .500 since April 16.
Is this an excuse for the Braves’ performance? Absolutely not. They’ve played poorly, at least at the most crucial times. They still lead the NL in many offensive categories, including batting average, average with runners in scoring position, with RISP and two outs, etc.
But this team has a knack for not getting that big hit when they absolutely need it. They pile up hits with runners in scoring position in easy wins, and fail to get them too frequently in close games. And when they need a lockdown performance from the ‘pen, they get it infrequently.
They keep talking about playing well enough to win games, but not winning them. But that’s a contradictory statement that rings hollow at this juncture of the season.
If they were playing well enough to win so many games, they’d win at least the majority of said games, wouldn’t they? If they don’t win them, they’re not playing well enough to win. Period.
Because if you’re scoring seven runs a game, it’s still not accurate to say you’re scoring enough runs to win. Because obviously you’re not, if your pitchers give up more runs than you’re scoring.
Because it’s a team, fellas, and those are your pitchers. Whether you like them or not (and at least one of them, you did not, so he’s gone, but that’s another story). So you have to score enough runs and play good enough defense to win with those pitchers, not with the mid-90s Braves pitchers or this season’s San Diego pitchers, or whatever.
Several injuries and a few underperformers have made this pitching staff a far less effective unit than what the Braves envisioned. Tough. That’s the team, and if the Braves thought desperate times called for desperate measures, they could and should have overspent for another starting pitcher at or, even better, before the trade deadline.
They did not. And they also opted to keep Bob Wickman in the closer role right up until the bloody end. Hey, decisions are made. Some are good. Some aren’t. They all have to be lived with, some have to be overcome. Because as a great philospher once said, there’s no crying in baseball.
Besides, the Padres are finding ways to overcome a .249 team batting average that ranks last in the NL, and they’re doing it without a huge payroll. If they Braves, who are a far more balanced team than the Padres, can’t catch them, then they don’t deserve to go to the playoffs, plain and simple.
Catch them, or pull up a bar stool and watch the postseason from home for a second consecutive season, starting a new kind of multi-year streak the Braves sure wanted no part of last fall and all spring, when they talked about how having their division-title streak snapped and being picked to finish out of the playoffs was motivating them.
Well, they lost Mike Hampton before the season and lost Mike Gonzalez early on. A lot of other contending teams lost crucial pieces, too. Tough luck. Bottom line: Nobody cares, when the postseason grid is filled out and the non-participants are sent home.
The Braves added Mark Teixeira, Ron Mahay and Octavio Dotel at the deadline. The first two have met or exceeded all expectations. That’s two more moves than several other contenders made, and a bigger move (Teixeira) than any other team made. If it’s not enough, if the Braves can’t squeeze a win or two a week out of their motley Nos. 3-5 starters and an inconsistent bullpen, well, it’s on them.
But if you keep losing, please don’t tell folks you played good enough to win. Because you didn’t.
A couple of random stats:
— Tim Hudson’s Cy Young chances were diminished with his loss Saturday. His 3.23 ERA is more than a run higher than Chris Young and Jake Peavy, he’s not among NL strikeouts leaders (Peavy has 186; Smoltz, by the way, is fifth in NL with 148), and for all the talk of Hudson’s “bad luck,” he’s got the highest run support of any qualifying starting pitcher in the majors, at 7.11 runs per nine innings pitched (Dontrelle Willis is a distant second in the NL at 6.25).
— For all the Braves’ pitching concerns, imagine what old friend Leo Mazzone is going through: His Orioles have posted an 11.17 ERA during the team’s six-game losing skid, allowing earned-run totals of 30, 9, 5, 7, 8 and 11 in those six games.
— Braves expat Kyle Davies is 2-8 with a 7.38 ERA in his past 12 starts, including 0-3 with a 9.75 and .400 opponents’ average in his past three.
— Andruw Jones is 10-for-31 (.323) with three homers, seven RBIs and a .400 OBP in his past eight games, but his hot streak could be put to the test this weekend: He’s 4-for-34 (.118) with one RBI in eight games against Florida this season.
— Chipper Jones and Braves indicated yesterday he could miss another day with that sore groin. I’m guessing he plays tonight: He’s 5-for-10 with two homers off Marlins starter Scott Olsen.
— How bad is the Braves’ bench? Real bad. Scott Thorman has a .196 average, 24 RBIs and a .233 OBP in 84 games (219 at-bats) since May 1, and Chris Woodward is 2-for-22 (.091) with one RBI and three errors in his past 23 games. Ugh.
— Also skidding: Willie Harris is 6-for-46 (.130) with one RBI in 14 games, and Jeff Francoeur is 4-for-28 (.143) with one extra-base hit (double) and one RBI in six games.
OK, gotta get ready and get out to horrible Dolphin Stadium.
The rest of the blog is non-baseball, so if you don’t want to read about movies and music, skip to posting. Because we don’t want to hear your suggestions on how to improve the blog by eliminating things you don’t like.
Wanted to share with you movie fans, we took in three great ones in the past week, from both ends of the spectrum and somewhere in the middle: Superbad (funniest movie of the year), Bourne Ultimatum (even better action movie than Casino Royale), and No End In Sight (concise, compelling study of the Iraq war).
And now, a music note: Steve Earle’s got a great new CD coming out in four weeks, and my man Don at Ella Guru hooked me up with an advance copy. Been listening to it all week. It’s terrific. CD’s called “Washington Square Serenade,” and the lyrics say a lot about his adopted home town, New York, where he lives with his wife, Allison Moorer.
Couldn’t find any lyrics transcribed yet from that CD, but here’s a great one from a long time ago:
”ANGRY YOUNG MAN” by Steve Earle & John Porter McMeans
Got a lot of memories tied up in this place/So much time spent in so little space
What looked like the world through the eyes of a child/Kind of closes in on you after awhile
It’s a place to grow up and a place to grow old/You keep your mouth shut and you do what you’re told
I told mama the day that I ran/This ain’t no place for an angry young man
Mama if you could see me right now/You’d be so sure you failed me somehow
Mama you never could understand/There ain’t no peace for an angry young man
A cheap hotel a long way from my home/So many people make you feel so alone
Dreams die easy out here in these streets/And hearts grow cold in the city heat
I ain’t never been the patient kind/I got to live like I please or die tryin’
At a filling station with a gun in my hand/The only way for an angry young man
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