AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2007 > August > 06
Monday, August 6, 2007
Make-or-break series for Braves?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It’s not a make-or-break proposition for the Braves (not with 50 games left and less than a five-game deficit), but this three-game series starting Tuesday with the Metropolitans in NYC is unquestionably big.
Bigger for the Braves than for the Mets, perhaps. Or maybe not.
Here’s what I mean: Yes, the Mets still have a 4-1/2-game lead on the Braves, and will have a 3-1/2-game lead even if the Braves win two of three at bucolic Shea Stadium (let me tell you, Shea and Flushing in August are lovely).
But if the Braves win the series, that’ll make it four of four series they’ve won against the Mets. And it could be a situation real similar to 1997, when I covered the Marlins and they knew they could beat the Braves, because they did beat them head-to-head.
They had no fear whatsoever of them, even though the Braves were on their way to winning the division title again. When the Marlins met them in the NLCS, they were confident they’d beat them, and did.
If the Braves, who’ve won six of nine games and all three series with the Mets this season, win a fourth consecutive series against them, don’t you think the Braves will feel confident that they can either catch them by the end of the season or, if the Braves win the wild card, that they’ll beat the Mets in the NLCS?
Anyway, back to this series. The Mets have adjusted their original pitching plans, and the revamp isn’t what the Braves want to see. Instead of facing Brian Lawrence in the middle game, the Braves will now face Orlando Hernandez in that game, as the Mets have moved John Maine up a day to the series finale, skipping Lawrence because of the off day in the schedule today (Monday).
That means they’ll see Braves nemesis Oliver Perez (10-7, 3.00) in the opener, then Hernandez (7-4, 3.00) and then Maine (12-6, 3.27).
That’s three of the best nine ERAs among NL starters that the Mets will run out there.
In fact, five of the best nine league ERAs among starters will be on display in this three-game series, with John Smoltz (10-6, 3.04) facing El Duque (Hernandez) in the middle game and Tim Hudson (12-5, 2.95) facing Maine in the finale.
Yes, it figures to be a helluva series. Only Buddy Carlyle (6-3, 4.20) doesn’t rank among the league ERA leaders, and he’s 5-1 with a 2.95 ERA in his past seven starts heading into the series opener. The Budster has gotten it done, and the hyperextended elbow that knocked him out of his last start doesn’t appear to be a factor at all, at this point. He had no problems in his bullpen Sunday.
Braves have offensive edge: Who’d have thought the Braves would enter the series with the better offensive totals and the more formidable looking lineup?
Even without Edgar Renteria, the latter is true. Because the Mets are without Braves-slayer Carlos Beltran, who’s on the DL with an abdominal-muscle strain. Beltran has been ridiculously good against the Bravos, batting .325 with nine homers, 22 RBIs and a 1.232 OPS in his past 20 games against them.
And even though the Braves hate to be without Renteria, who’s probably been their MVP this season (right now he’d probably split votes with Chipper and perhaps Hudson), they don’t miss a whole lot overall with Yunel Escobar in the lineup.
Sure they miss Edgar’s power potential and peerless bat-handling in the No. 2 hole, but the Cuban rookie is hitting .331 and has a penchant for clutch hits, along with strong shortstop defense and a cannon for an arm.
Escobar’s hitting .345 vs. lefties and .314 vs. righties. He’s hitting .341 at hoem and .318 on the road. And he’s hitting better in pressure situations than non-pressured spots.
He has a .288 average with none on base, and a .415 average (22-for-53) with runners on. He’s 15-for-30 with runners in scoring position, including 6-for-12 in those spots with two outs.
In close-and-late situations, Escobar is 9-for-25 (.360), including his game-ending hit Sunday to beat the Rockies.
The kid is special, and the Braves clearly have him prominently featured in their future plans, which is why they were willing to trade 18-year-old shortstop Elvis Andrus and even talked to the White Sox about a Renteria-for-Jon Garland swap.
It says plenty about Escobar that the Braves even gave a moment’s thought to replacing Edgar at midseason with a rookie.
Escobar hit .305 in June, his first month in the bigs. Then .328 in July. He’s 8-for-17 (.471) with four RBIs in four August games. So much for teams developing a scouting report and exploiting a rookie’s weaknesses.
Oh, and when he hits leadoff, he’s 26-for-72 (.361) with a .382 OBP.
But back to the lineup: The Braves have hit a league-high .307 since the All-Star break, and their 146 runs since the break trail only the Phillies (150). The Mets (125) are the only NL team with more than 117 runs since the break.
(It really could be a three-team race to the wire in the East. The Phillies are for real, but let’s see if they can keep overcoming injuries and a suspect back of their rotation.)
The Braves’ rank among NL leaders in most major offensive categories for the season, including batting average (.278, first in the NL), OBP (.342, third), slugging (.434, second), runs (555, second), doubles (229, fourth), and home runs (116, tied for fifth).
The Mets are fifth in average (.271), tied for sixth in runs (519), and tied with the Braves for fifth in homers (116). The Mets lead the NL by a wide margin in stolen bases (137), but who’d have imagined they only have as many triples as the Braves (19) and fewer than eight other NL teams?
Mets tuning up: The Mets have hit a lot better recently, and David Wright has been going strong since early June after a slow start. He’s hit .335 with 11 homers, 39 RBIs and a .420 OBP in his past 56 games.
Carlos Delgado has awakened, batting .319 with five homers, 20 RBIs and a .952 OPS since July 1.
The Mets have hit .295 with 21 homers while going 11-6 in the past 17 games.
After beating the Braves 11-1 in the first game between the teams this season, the Mets are 2-6 with a .249 average and 26 total runs in the past eight games between the teams.
But they’ve been outstanding at picturesque Shea lately, going 12-5 with a 2.46 ERA at home since June 22.
Their bullpen has been strong all season, particularly closer Billy Wagner. Those of us who suggested last winter that the Braves would do as well with Bob Wickman as the Mets with Wagner should admit we were spectacularly wrong (my hand’s raised).
Wagner has allowed nine hits and four walks with 22 strikeouts in 20 scoreless innings over his past 19 appearances, converting all 11 save opportunities in that stretch. For the year, he’s converted 25 of 26 saves and has a 1.30 ERA and .178 opponents’ average, with 58 strikeouts and 12 walks in 48-1/3 innings.
OK, I’ve got both hands raised.
Just a glimpse ahead: After facing the Mets, the Braves travel to Philly for three against the surging Phils, who are 11-5 with a whopping 103 runs and 21 homers in their past 16 games. They also have a solid 3.53 ERA in that stretch.
Braves had best win that Mets series if they want to be assured of a good trip.
“THE NIGHT HANK WILLIAMS CAME TO TOWN” by Johnny Cash
Harry Truman was our president/A coke an burger cost you thirty cents
I was still in love with Mavis Brown/On the night Hank Williams came to town.
“I Love Lucy” debuted on TV/That was one big event we didn’t see
‘Cause no one stayed at home for miles around/It was the night Hank Williams came to town.
Mama ironed my shirt and daddy let me take the truck/I drove on out to Grapevine and picked old Mavis up
We hit that county line for one quick round/On the night Hank Williams came to town.
A thousand people sweltered in the gym/Then I heard someone whisper; “Hey, that’s him”
That’s when the crowd let out this deafening sound/It was the night Hank Williams came to town.
On and on he sang into the night/’Jambalaya’, ‘Cheatin’ heart’, ‘I saw the light’
How’d they get Miss Audrey in that gown/On the night Hank Williams came to town.
Mavis had her picture made with Hank outside his car/She said; “He sure is humble for a Grand Ole Opry Star.”
Mavis said: “Why don’t we hang around/It ain’t often that Hank Williams comes to town.”
While Hank signed his autograph on Beaulah Rice’s fan/Mavis got acquainted with the Driftin’ Cowboys Band
The effect on all our lives was quite profound/On the night Hank Williams came to town.
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