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Tuesday, July 31, 2007

No question: Trade was good

Of course the Tex-for-Salty trade was a good one for the Braves. Glad you asked.

And please, don’t give me the “smells like J.D. Drew all over again” line.

(And before we go any further, let me say that if the Braves get Octavio Dotel from Kansas City for Kyle Davies, it will have been arguably the best couple of days of trading in Atlanta Braves history, in terms of impacting a playoff race.)

(Wait, not done with that thought. How can they get Dotel for Davies? It’s only because Dayton Moore, KC GM and former Schuerholz assistant, had such a big hand in developing Davies that he probably believes Davies can still be pitcher they always believed he’d be. Otherwise, Dayton would take one of the better offers he’s received in the past month for Dotel. For the Braves’ sake, lot of denizens hoping Dayton keeps the nostalgiac view of Davies and pulls the trigger on this deal around noon today, or as soon as the Braves can officially offer him Davies, after the Rangers sign off on the Teixeira trade without demanding Davies be included instead of sore-shouldered Matt Harrison.)

(Whew _ that was one helluva run-on sentence and paragraph. Flexing my skills. Yeah, right. Now, back to original blog point about the Salty-for-Tex deal….)

For one very big thing, Mark “Tex” Teixeira is under the Braves’ control at least through 2008. That’s two runs at the playoffs, not one like they got from Drew.

What they do with those two runs at the playoffs will determine how this is viewed by many Monday-morning GMs in the future, but the fact is, the Braves have Teixeira to team with Chipper Jones and the rest of this relatively young lineup for two runs at the playoffs.

And having Teixeira makes those runs a whole lot more realistic and optimistic than not having him.

The second thing is, the Braves could certainly have used Adam Wainwright, the pitcher they gave up in the Drew deal, during these past few years of injuries to key pitchers. He might have made a real difference in Atlanta. (I’d say they could also have used Jason Marquis, but fact of the matter is, Marquis wasn’t going to prosper until he went somewhere else and got a fresh start and a new attitude, which he got in St. Louis … at least for a while.)

With Jarrod Saltalamacchia, the big stud they’re giving up in this trade for Teixeira, the Braves don’t have a spot for him in the near future, unless you saw enough of Salty at first base to conclude that he was the answer there. I did not. While I think he could certainly have been a serviceable and perhaps even good defensive first baseman, the brief stint he got there with the Braves could not have led any reasonable person to believe he was the next Keith Hernandez. He was out of position there.

Salty is a catcher. Probably going to be a very good one for a long time. But he had more value to the Braves as a catcher they could trade to fill the first-base need, than he did as a first baseman trying to fill that need himself during a playoff run. He wasn’t going to get any playing time at first base the rest of the season for a manager who didn’t have the confidence in him to keep running him out there in a division race after the All-Star break.

Besides, as much as some would have you believe this was just some arbitrary decision to yank Salty from the lineup and play old man Franco, fact is Salty hit .228 with two extra-base hits (doubles) and two RBIs in 15 games (15 games with multiple at-bats in each) during July, including 10-for-51 (.196) with 10 strikeouts and three walks in the last 13 of those games.

That’s when the Braves decided it was worth signing Franco, and that’s when Cox started playing Franco every day to see what he had left and to better gauge how desperate it was for the Braves to make a deal for a first baseman.

So they got the best player available on the trade market, and they got a competent lefty reliever, Ron Mahay, as part of the same trade. Two birds with four stones _ Salty, shortstop prospect Elvis Andrus, who’s 18, lefty prospect Matt Harrison and righty prospect Neifi Feliz, who’s 19.

Yes, they gave up a lot of young talent. But folks, for every Braves fan that will how that the Braves mortgaged the future and that Schuerholz and Bobby Cox only care about going out with a flourish in this season and/or next season, there are two Braves fans who would have howled if the Braves didn’t get Teixeira that the team isn’t a small-market team and shouldn’t behave like it by overvaluing its prospects and not trying to win now.

That’s just the way it is. You can’t please everyone, and the Braves don’t try to make decisions to please the most number of folks possible. They’re trying to win now. All teams do in this day and age, at least all teams who run successful operations. This isn’t a build-for-the-future business as much as it is a win-now, and win-in-the-future, too, business.

You have to make very hard decisions that are going to upset a lot of people. The Braves made a big one yesterday. It could blow up in their faces if Salty goes on to become the next Johnny Bench, or just if he’s better over the next 5-6 years than Brian McCann is. And if Elvis becomes The King (of defensive shortstops) for the next decade. Or if Feliz or Harrison becomes a front-line pitcher.

Personally, I was so struck by how remarkably timid Harrison seemed in spring training, that I found it hard to believe he’d become a true staff ace. Just don’t know many pitchers with that kind of personality who are true aces in the majors.

Now, the Feliz kid, from all accounts, has got a ton of potential. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if he becomes a very good major league pitcher. But he’s in low-A ball. He’s 19. He’s 3-4 years, minimum, from being a factor.

You can’t assume a kid is going to develop steadily over the next four years and be a major league contributor. You don’t just build a great farm system in order to continually fuel your major league team. You build a farm system so that you can also use some of those players to trade and bring in proven commodities, such as a Teixeira, to fill holes in a playoff race.

This division race is wide open. The Mets (13-13 in July) aren’t world-beaters, and the Braves lineup is now at least as good, if not better, than New York’s. Philly has won nine of 10, but the injuries are stacking up and I don’t think they’re pitching is good enough to hold off the Braves down the stretch.

The Braves might have a better shot at winning the division than they do the wild card, given how many solid teams there are out west and given how the Cubs and D-Backs look like they might win their divisions and relegate the Brewers, Dodgers and Padres to competing for wild-card berths.

But with the division so wide open, Schuerholz just made it possible for the Braves to make a legit run at reclaiming what was theirs for 14 consecutive completed seasons. It’s on the players and Cox now to bring it home.

Tex ain’t driving South, but you get the point here:

“DRIVE SOUTH” by John Hiatt

I didn’t say we wouldn’t hurt anymore

That’s how you learn, you just get burned

But we don’t have to feel like dirt anymore

Though love’s not earned, baby its our turn

We were always looking for true north

With our heads in the clouds, just a little off course

I left the motor running, now if you’re feeling down and out

Come on baby drive South, with the one you love

Come on baby drive South, with the one you love

I’m not talkin’ bout retreatin’ little girl

Gonna take our stand, in this Chevy van

Windows open on the rest of the world

Holdin’ hands, all the way to Dixieland

We’ve been tryin to turn our lives around

Since we were little kids, it’s been wearin’ us down

Don’t turn away now darlin’ let’s fire it up and wind it out

Come on baby drive South, with the one you love

Come on baby drive South, with the one you love

I heard your mama callin’, I think she was just stallin’

Don’t know who she was talkin to, baby me and you

We could go down with a smile on, don’t bother to pack your nylons

Just keep them pretty legs showin’, it gets hot down where were goin’

We were always looking for true north

With our heads in the clouds, just a little off course

I left the motor running, now if you’re feeling down and out’

Come on baby drive, come on baby drive South, come on baby drive South

Come on baby drive South, with the one you love

Come on baby drive South, with the one you love

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