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Monday, July 23, 2007
Advice: Keep Braves’ Soriano from Bonds
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Here’s some unsolicited advice if the Braves want to win a series and avoid Barry Bonds breaking Hank’s homer record this week at their expense: Do not bring in Rafael Soriano to face him with a game on the line.
Actually, do not bring in Soriano to face anyone with a game on the line.
Not right now. Not until Soriano gets straightened out and gets back to being the devastating setup man he was for much of the season. Because right now, the only team he’s devastating is the Braves.
The numbers don’t lie, and what the numbers tell us is that Soriano’s five-week skid reached such depths during the just-completed homestand that he played the biggest role than in assuring results weren’t what the Braves needed:
Soriano pitched five times in nine days on the homestand, and results were awful in four of those five. He went 0-1 with three blown saves in as many opportunities, while posting a 12.46 ERA and .400 opponents average with eight hits, six runs and three critical homers allowed in 4-1/3 innings over five games.
On the July 14 vs. Pittsburgh, July 18 vs. Cincinnati and last night (July 22) vs. St. Louis, Soriano gave up a homer and blew a save. That’s three blown saves in nine days, for a team that only blew seven before the All-Star break.
It may seem long ago, but it was only June 14 when Soriano was finishing one of the best runs we’ve seen from a Braves reliever since John Smoltz was in the ‘pen. From April 22 to June 14, Soriano posted a 0.42 ERA and sensational .074 opponents’ average in 21 games, allowing just five hits and one run (on a homer) in 21-1/3 innings while recording four walks with 22 strikeouts.
And then, literally overnight, he went from surging to skidding. He gave up a homer June 15 at Cleveland, beginning a 16-appearance stretch in which he’s put up a 6.91 ERA and .339 opponents’ average while allowing 21 hits, 11 earned runs and six homers in just 14-1/3 innings.
The Braves were already without lefty Mike Gonzalez, lost to elbow surgery in May. Now the vaunted Big Three bullpen trio is down to closer Bob Wickman. The Braves don’t even have a lefty reliever, at least not one who gets lefties out with any consistency (lefty Wilfredo Ledezma is a lefty reliever in name only; he’s actually tougher on righties than lefties, and has been tough on neither this season).
The Braves’ biggest need going toward the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline isn’t offense, and I no longer even believe it’s starting pitching (though they could certainly use another reliable starter, and there is some merit to the rumors you’re heaing about Jon Garland, Livan Hernandez, etc).
No, the most critical need is relief help. It’s essential they pick up at least one reliever before the deadline, preferably a lefty who could succeed in a setup role, if necessary. I know that’s getting a bit specific and choosy, but they need it.
With Soriano and Tyler Yates appearing tired and lately ineffective, the Braves might need to move Aussie sidearmer Peter Moylan into the primary setup role unless and until they acquire another arm. He and Chad Paronto have been their most consistent relievers in recent weeks.
Yates wasn’t any better than Soriano on the homestand, at least not in three of his five appearances. Coincidentally, he struggled in the same three games in which Soriano blew saves.
Yates gave up three runs while recording two outs July 14 vs. Pittsburgh, gave up a run on two hits and a walk July 18 vs. Cincinnati, and gave up four runs while recording one out last night vs. St. Louis.
In 12 appearances May 28 to June 30, Yates had a 0.79 ERA and .154 opponents’ average, with only six hit and one earned run in 11-1/3 innings.
Since then he’s 0-2 with a 16.71 ERA and .444 opponents’ average, with 16 hits and 13 earned runs allowed in just seven innings over 10 appearances.
Frightening numbers from Soriano and Yates, who’ve had arguably the most prominent bullpen roles outside of Wickman.
Facing Barry in his backyard: If you’re worried about going to bed at midnight and waking up the next morning to read that Barry broke Hammerin’ Hank’s record against your team while you slept, well, relax.
At least for tonight.
Because it’s been a long time since Barry had three homers in a game, and that’s what it’d take for him to break the record.
He’s got 753 homers and needs two to tie and three to surpass the Braves legend. Considering the way Barry’s been going lately, there’s a very good chance he won’t set it in the four-game series against the Braves that begins tonight.
Then again, that’s what we were all saying about him before he had his two-homer game Thursday at Wrigley Field, where Bonds went 3-for-3 with six RBIs to move him onto the front porch, knocking at Hank’s door.
But still, other than that impressive day in Chicago, Barry’s not done much lately. He hasn’t had a homer or RBIs in his other 10 games since July 4, and he’s 0-for-25 in his past nine games other than that one huge one.
He went 0-for-6 with three walks and two strikeouts while playing in two of three games in the Giants’ weekend series at Milwaukee.
On the other hand, he can warm up in a hurry, obviously. And before this drought of sorts, he’d hit .400 (18-for-45) with five homers and 14 RBIs in his previous 18 games from June 11 to July 3, with 25 walks and an absurd .620 OBP and 1.442 OPS in that stretch.
And there’s the Smoltz and Hudson factors. Bonds is 19-for-64 (.297) with eight homers against Smoltz, tied for the most he’s hit against any pitcher. But he’s not hit any homers off him since 1998, except for one in the 2002 division series when the Braves had a game pretty well put away.
Bonds also has 20 walks and 14 strikeouts against Smoltz, who won’t just put him on base if he can avoid doing so. He’ll pitch to him, unless the situation absolutely dictates pitching around him.
Bonds is 9-for-19 with four homers vs. Hudson, whom he’ll face Tuesday on Bonds’ 43rd birthday. Hudson gave up two homers to Bonds last Aug. 29. But Hudson has been far better this season at keeping the ball down, so it’ll be interesting to see how that matchup goes.
Hudson pitched for a lot of years across the bay at Oakland, and will have friends in attendance, for sure. He’s already said he won’t let Bonds’ homer total influence how he pitches to him, that only the game situation can affect that, and that’ll he pitch to him as long as it’s reasonable to do so.
Chance to make up ground: Other than the little matter of Bonds and the home-run chase, the Braves are facing the Giants at a good time.
This isn’t a very strong San Francisco team, and the Giants have hit just .245 and lost 28 of 43 games since June 2. They are 3-8 with a .238 average in their past 11, though they did just win two of three over the weekend at Milwaukee.
Smoltz faces Matt Cain, who’s 1-8 with terrible run support in his past 11 starts, including 1-4 with a bad ERA (6.26) and the aforementioned terrible run support in his past five starts (for the season, Cain has a respectable 3.87 ERA, and an astounding nine quality starts in which he either took a loss or got no decision).
On Tuesday, Hudson faces Matt Morris, whose name keeps coming up in trade rumors, including one with the Braves, though I’m not sure why any team would give up anything of quality to get him. He’s having a bad season and he’s at his worst right now, 0-3 with an 8.35 ERA and .393 opp avg in his past six starts.
Hudson, meanwhile, is 4-0 with a 2.61 ERA in his past five starts, and he pitched seven innings while allowing one or no runs in each of those four wins.
Philly should appreciate the gesture: Does anyone want to win the NL East? The Mets and Braves seem to be willing to defer, considering their July performances.
The Braves are 9-9 in July despite a .298 average and 102 runs, nearly six per game on average. Their 4.23 ERA isn’t lousy, but too many of the runs allowed have come in crucial situations.
The Mets, meanwhile, are 9-10 with a .264 average and 4.95 ERA in July, and have averaged just over four runs per game.
He hasn’t looked very good, folks. Despite the warm applause and opportunity to play plenty. Julio needs to perform soon, or the Braves might need to do something else about first base before the trade deadline.
Their first basemen are down to .202, the majors’ worst at the position and a stunning 40 points worse than any other NL team’s first basemen (Pittsburgh is 15th at .242).
Braves 1Bs have a .260 OBP, 59 points worse than any other NL team at the position. They have a .353 slugging percentage, while no other NL team is below .405 at the position. And they have a league-low 37 RBIs at the position.
Hey, I’m 43. Glad I’m not trying to catch up to 95-mph fastballs.
OK, I’m going to get breakfast (it’s still early enough out here in San Francisco. That or some clam chowder in a sourdough bread roll.
Oh, and Ryan Adams is playing the next two nights at different halls here, but night games both nights probably gonna make it impossible to get over there in time to see the show either night.
“OLD MAN” by Neil Young
Old man look at my life,/I’m a lot like you were.
Old man look at my life,/I’m a lot like you were.
Old man look at my life,/Twenty four and there’s so much more
Live alone in a paradise/That makes me think of two.
Love lost, such a cost,/Give me things that don’t get lost.
Like a coin that won’t get tossed/Rolling home to you.
Old man take a look at my life I’m a lot like you
I need someone to love me the whole day through
Ah, one look in my eyes and you can tell that’s true.
Lullabies, look in your eyes,/Run around the same old town.
Doesn’t mean that much to me/To mean that much to you.
I’ve been first and last/Look at how the time goes past.
But I’m all alone at last./Rolling home to you.
Old man take a look at my life I’m a lot like you
I need someone to love me the whole day through
Ah, one look in my eyes and you can tell that’s true.
Old man look at my life,/I’m a lot like you were.
Old man look at my life,/I’m a lot like you were.
