AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2007 > July > 19
Thursday, July 19, 2007
Smoltz’s strong return overshadowed
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Who would have thought that when the World Series champion Cardinals came to Atlanta on the same homestand as the Reds, the Reds would actually look like the more formidable opponent?
That’s the case, if you consider things like pitching matchups, healthy and hot-hitting lineups, and the fact that Cincinnati has a better record (18-17) in its past 35 games than St. Louis (17-18), not to mention an ERA one-third of a run lower in that stretch.
Anyway, the Braves need to quickly get rid of the bitter aftertaste from that sweep by the Reds, and no better way than to win this four-game series against the Cardinals before going back out west to face San Francisco and Arizona.
Before I forget, the fact that the Braves lost in 15 innings yesterday should do nothing to detract from the most positive news they could have received - a strong, apparently pain-free outing from John Smoltz, who had a season-high 11 strikeouts in seven innings and lowered his ERA to 2.88, including 1.98 at home (third-best in the NL).
It’s too bad for the Braves that Rafael Soriano and Tyler Yates are struggling after turning in such impressive extended stretches, Soriano for nearly two months and Yates for the entire month of June.
If Soriano doesn’t give up the two-run jack to the imminential strikeout-able Adam Dunn, the Braves lead 2-1 going to the ninth. But, hey, it happens. Like I’ve said, Soriano was arguably the best reliever in baseball for nearly two months. Might just have rode him a bit too often in that stretch.
But you’d rather see him and Yates go through a rough patch now than in September or October, for sure. So maybe they get through this and feel rejuvenated for the stretch drive. It certainly happens, in fact it happens to most relievers at least once during the season, even the best ones go through a few weeks where they look anything but dominant.
Here’s the breakdown of the breakdowns, so to speak, just for the record:
Soriano had an 0.42 ERA and .074 opponents’ average in 21 appearances from April 22 to June 14, allowing a jaw-dropping five hits, one run and four walks with 22 strikeouts in that overpowering stretch.
Since then he’s posted a 5.84 ERA and .308 opponents’ average in 14 games, allowing 16 hits, eight earned runs, five homers and four walks with 11 strikeouts in 12-1/3 innings.
Yates had an 0.79 ERA and .154 opponents’ average in 12 appearances from April 28 to June 30, allowing six hits, one earned run and six walks with 10 strikeouts in 11-1/3 innings.
Since then he’s posted a 14.29 ERA and .448 opponents’ average in eight appearances, allowing 13 hits, 11 runs (nine earned) and four walks with six strikeouts in 5-2/3 innings.
By the way, the Braves’ overall pitching is squarely middle-of-the-pack in the NL, ranked eighth with a 4.19 ERA, though there’s a big dropoff to No. 9 Florida (4.52) and the rest of the bottom half, including No. 16 Philly (4.98).
Most of the contenders are in the top half, obviously, led by San Diego (3.13, pitchers’ park), New York (3.83) and the Cubs (3.86, wind hasn’t blown out much so far) and Dodgers (3.87).
The worn Braves bullpen has slipped to seventh in the NL with a 3.79 ERA, and their 313-2/3 innings are third-highest in the league, behind only the Nationals (340) and Marlins (336). Twelve NL teams have fewer than 300 relief innings.
Since the break the Braves have two blown saves, both by Soriano on Saturday vs. Pittsburgh and yesterday vs. Cincinnati.
One glaring weakness in offense: For all the concerns earlier in the season about the offense, do you folks realize that the Braves have only struggled mightily at one position, or two if you include center field, where Andruw’s average is still terrible but the homers and RBIs are certainly not.
(They’ve actually gotten less from LF than CF, considering they’ve really gotten only a high average from LF, not any power or RBIs to speak of, but not many teams have a leadoff guy playing LF, so that’s skewed a bit, perhaps.)
Anyway, the one glaring weakness has been, of course, first base, where we might be dreaming if we think playing Saltalamacchia full-time is the answer (and the Braves obviously don’t think he is, because they just signed Julio Franco yesterday and have inquired about Mark Teixeira and lesser 1B options).
Anyway, Braves first basemen (primarily Scott Thorman) have hit a pitiful .205 with 35 RBIs, a .261 OBP and a .360 slugging percentage, last in the league by in all those categories, and by whopping margins in all but RBIs.
Here’s where the Braves rank by average and a couple other notable stats at the other positions:
Catchers (second in average, .289, second in slugging, .471, second in homers, 14, and second in RBIs, 59).
Second basemen (second in average, .295, and second in OBP, .377).
Third basemen (third in average, .302, second in OBP, .381, and third in slugging, .509).
Shortstops (second in average, .323, third in OBP, .378, and third in slugging, .474).
Left fielders (fourth in average, .297, last in homers, 5, and last in RBIs, 27).
Center fielders (last in average, first in homers, 18, and first in RBIs, 64).
Right fielders (third in average, .288, third in RBIs, 63, tied for ninth in OBP, .328).
Most of them are hitting: The only Braves who aren’t on hot streaks right now are Willie Harris, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Scott Thorman.
We may be seeing the inevitable market correction from Harris, who’s still having a helluva season regardless. In his past 21 games, he has a .193 average with no extra-base hits or RBIs. In his past 16 games, he’s 7-for-45 (.156) with 12 strikeouts and a .269 OBP.
Saltalamacchia hasn’t homered since his two-homer game June 26, and he’s 7-for-39 (.179) with two doubles and two RBIs in his past 10 games.
Thorman has been woeful since April 30, but we’ve covered that ground enough. He’s got no options, but Braves might soon be forced to make a move and risk losing him on waivers.
The surges: Andruw is 21-for-73 (.288) with seven homers, 20 RBIs and a .376 OBP and .992 OPS in his past 18 games, including a .361 average with four homers and 13 RBIs in his past nine games, with only three strikeouts in 36 at-bats and a .465 on-base percentage in that latter span.
Francoeur has hit .345 with two homers and 17 RBIs in his past 21 games (24 of his 29 hits in that span were singles).
Brian McCann has hit .339 with six homers, 18 RBIs and an 1.112 OPS in his past 17 games.
Kelly Johnson has hit .425 with seven RBIs and a .521 OBP in his past 15 games.
Matt Diaz has hit .376 (47-for-125) with 10 extra-base hits in his past 45 games.
Edgar Renteria has hit .348 (46-for-132) with 10 extra-base hits and 19 RBIs in his past 32 games.
Chipper is hitting .333 overall and ranks second in the NL in OPS (1.012). He’s hit .381 with 10 extra-base hits, 16 RBIs, 20 walks and a .474 OBP in 29 games since returning from the DL.
