AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2007 > July > 11
Wednesday, July 11, 2007
I’m still picking Braves to win the East
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Well, I can tell you that after talking to a lot of ink-stained wretches and a few TV-types out here covering the All-Star Game, including some from New York and Philly, the general consensus is that the NL East is wide open.
The Mets are pinning a lot of hopes on the return of Pedro Martinez, and I’ve gotta say if he’s back strong, I’d lean toward them winning the division. But that’s a big “if.”
Every time I see that ESPN footage of him in a throwing session a couple months or so ago, can’t help but notice how he barely reached back behind his ear. Granted, that was a couple months ago, but I’ve just got my doubts about how strong he’s going to be. So much wear and tear on that slender, spectacular arm.
So I’m sticking with my preseason prediction, the one several of you mocked me for when the Braves were hitting .150 and scoring one run during an 0-5 skid vs. Boston and Detroit. Yes, I’m still picking the Braves to win the division.
The Mets aren’t nearly as tough as I thought they’d be, which is why I’ll take this flawed Braves team to play better in the second half, pick up another starting pitcher and perhaps another bat before the trade deadline, and to win this thing in a race to the wire.
Andruw’s hitting better now and he’s going to have a big second half. McCann’s hitting better and is going to have a big second half. Chipper needs to stay healthy, but other than the flukey palm injuries in the stumble at Pittsburgh, he’s been pretty healthy this season, even Hoss-bashers would have to admit.
Healthy enough to rank among the league leaders in average (.329, sixth in NL), slugging, (.594, second), on-base percentage (.417, third) and OPS (1.011, second to Bonds’ 1.101).
He belonged on the All-Star team, and would’ve made it if his DL stint had come later instead of earlier, when it kep his name from appearing in NL rankings because he didn’t have the plate appearances to qualify until the last couple weeks before the break, when most voting was already done.
That said, shortstop Edgar Renteria’s been this team’s MVP in the first half, and certainly belonged on the All-Star team more than any Brave, including Chipper and even the guys who actually made the team, McCann and John Smoltz.
Pittsburgh radio station just called… Asked if I’d be available tomorrow morning to discuss the upcoming series with the Pirates. See, folks care, even in Steel Town, where their squad isn’t very good, but has played better lately.
At least I think they have, right? I know ‘Ol Rochy is coming around and has been on fire in the last two or three weeks. It’ll be interesting to hear the reception he gets in his return to Turner Field for the three-gamer that starts Friday.
OK, a little interesting.
In actuality, not expecting thunderous applause or lusty boos, but something in the middle. Remember, the man didn’t leave on his only initiative. The Braves traded him. Always leaves me scratching my head when players who got traded get booed in their return. I mean, unless they were total jackballs while here.
And ‘Ol Rochy wasn’t a total jackball. Or even a partial one. He’s a good dude. And man, do the Braves miss that defense at first base….
But anyway, I told the station I’m catching a redeye flight tonight at 11:45 p.m., arriving in Atlanta about 7:30 a.m, and probably wouldn’t be a very engaging interview at mid-morning. And that was that.
Kelly back to leadoff? Is it time for Kelly Johnson to be moved back to the leadoff spot. I’d say so, at least on the days when he’s in the lineup, assuming Bobby Cox continues to use the Escobar/Johnson platoon at 2B.
Willie Harris has been hitting leadoff lately when K.J.’s in the lineup, but that’s not worked out so well. I never thought Kelly deserved to lose the leadoff job, thought I understood the platoon at 2B simply because Escobar’s a dynamic talent and needs to play somewhere.
But have them split the leadoff role, too, if they’re going to platoon.
K.J. went to the break with the fourth-highest leadoff OBP in the league at .386, and two ahead of him were Hanley Ramirez (.438) and Jose Reyes (.387). The other was Scott Hatteberg (.415), but he had fewer than 100 plate appearances as a leadoff man.
Also, K.J. does another thing a leadoff man should do _ sees a lot of pitches. His 4.14 pitches seen per PA ranked fifth in the NL at the break behind only Todd Helton (4.36), Albert Pujols (4.21), Ryan Howard (4.20) and strikeout machine Adam Dunn (4.17).
Kelly hit .444 (12-for-27) with a homer, five RBIs, four walks and a .516 OBP in his last 10 games before the break. Willie was 3-for-23 with six walks, no extra-base hits or RBIs in his last 10 games before the break.
Harris had a great first half and is part of a productive left-field platoon with Matt Diaz that’s been crucial for the Braves since Ryan Langerhans was traded.
But Kelly has a .284 average and .386 OBP with 27 extra-base hits and 37 RBIs as a leadoff man. Very strong numbers.
Willie has a .194 average with no extra-base hits and a .342 OBP in limited duty (31 at-bats) as a leadoff man, compared to his .397 average in the 2-hole and .375 average in the 8-hole.
Whaddya think of this Diet Pepsi Max? They call it “invigorating cola” with extra caffeine and ginseng. A little too sweet for me, but hey, this hotel tragically doesn’t have coffee makers in its rooms, and I’m on the 21st floor with a pile of stuff to do for Friday paper, trying to crank out this blog before my 3 p.m. late checkout. So it’s Diet Pepsi Max, which some girls were distributing free cans of last night as we left AT&T Park. Glad I took a couple.
Speaking of invigorating: I think my limo/cab driver had a death wish last night. He pulled over in a Town Car, practically slamming against the curb as I was walking away from the ballpark. Asked if I needed a cab. It was starting to rain, so I jumped in.
Next thing I know, we’re careening down streets and he pulls over to let a fire engine go by with its sirens wailing and lights flashing. And what does this wired-up idiot do? He tucks in behind the fire engine and proceeds to go through red lights behind this thing for about six blocks through the heart of downtown San Francisco.
Unbelievable.
And I thought I was impatient.
Road warriors wrap: The Braves finished the first half with a .287 team batting average on the road, a full 15 points ahead of the next-best in the NL, the Mets’ .272. The Braves also had a league-high .340 road OBP and league-high .449 road slugging percentage.
Meanwhile, they ranked just 15th in the NL in home average at .248, ahead of only San Diego. The Braves’ .326 OBP and .391 slugging percentage on the road were far lower than their home marks in those categories, and they have hit 39 homers at Turner Field compared to 52 on the road.
The Braves had three of the NL’s top four road averages before the break, lead by Chipper’s league-best .361. Kelly (.346) was third and Edgar (.342) fourth, while Jeff Francouer (.326) was tied for eighth with Hanley Ramirez.
The Braves didn’t have any in the top 10 in home averages, but get this: Willie Harris’ .403 mark would lead the majors, just ahead of Ichiro (.402), if Willie had enough plate appearances to qualify.
Chase Utley (.387) leads the NL in home average.
Alright, I’m outta time. Gotta shower and check out of hotel. Probably gonna spend the rest of the day/night working in the Delta Crown Room at the SF airport, as much as I’d prefer to spend it hanging out in the city.
Take us out, out Billy Joe. Soon I’lll be on a fast plane home.
“GEORGIA ON A FAST TRAIN” by Billy Joe Shaver
On a rainy Wednesday morning that’s the way that I was born in/That old sharecropper’s one room country shack
They said my mommie left me the day before she had me/Said she hit the road and never once looked back
And I just like to mention my grandma’s old age pension/Is the reason why I’m standing here today
I got all my country learning a milking and a churning/Picking cotton raisin’ hell and baling hay
I been to Georgia on a fast train honey I wouldn’t born no yesterday/I got a good Christian raisin’ and an eight grade education
Ain’t no need in y’all a treatin’ me this way
Now sweet Carolina I don’t think I’ll ever find/Another woman put together like you are
I like your wiggle in your walking and your big city talking/And your brand new shiny Plymouth ragtop car
Well it’s hurry up and wait in this land of give and take/It seems like haste it makes for waste everytime
I declare to my soul when you hear those ages roll/You better know I’m gonna get my share of mine
I been to Georgia on a fast train…
I been to Georgia on a fast train…
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