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Wednesday, June 27, 2007
Evaluating Giles & LaRoche decisions
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
With 78 games down and three to go until the midpoint of the season, time to make a couple of quick evaluations.
No, not the whole Braves-at-midseason analysis, what went wrong (plenty) and right (not plenty) and all that. We’ll do that at the All-Star break in the paper, maybe hit on some things here leading up to then.
But no, today just a fast, basic look at the right side of the infield, where the Braves traded 1B Adam Laroche to Pittsburgh, and let 2B Marcus Giles walk because they didn’t want to pay him the $5.5 mill or so they’d have had to pay him through arbitration.
First, ‘Ol Rochy. You guys know he was one of my favorites in the clubhouse, and a Gold Glove-caliber defensive player coming off a breakout offensive season. I didn’t like the idea of trading him at all, but then when I saw what the Braves got, lefty Mike Gonzalez and legit infield prospect Brent Lillibridge, I could understand why they’d do it.
So where are we today? Gonzalez pitched well at times, but quickly blew out his elbow and was lost for the season. Braves still have control of him for another couple of seasons, and his salary won’t jump much after his truncated season and fact he wasn’t in closer role to pile up saves while he was active.
Lillibridge is a serious prospect, one of the Braves’ stable of shortstops. He could move to second base or the outfield in the future, perhaps even as soon as next season, if he’s ready for the majors and they don’t need a shortstop.
He’s got great speed, hits for average and some power, plays very solid defense (he was an OF for a while in college, by the way) and has great baseball instincts, the intangibles other players, scouts, coaches and managers notice and rave about.
Now, LaRoche: He got off to a horrid start for Pittsburgh and today is hitting .211 with 17 doubles, eight homers, 39 RBIs, 35 walks and 74 strikeouts in 265 at-bats. He has a .306 OBP and .366 slugging percentage. It’s not good.
Braves wouldn’t have done the trade if they didn’t feel comfortable with Scott Thorman at first base, supplemented by Craig Wilson, whom they signed the day after trading LaRoche.
Signing Wilson for $2 million turned out to be a terrible move, and perhaps we should have suspected it might judging from his awful final months last season with the Pirates and Yankees. He carried that over to this season, did absolutely nothing at the plate, and was released in May, soon as the sale of the team went through and the Braves were free to dump his contract.
Thorman has been mediocre, hitting for the power they hoped but not nearly the average or OBP. He’s hit .229 with 13 doubles, nine homers, 30 RBIs, a .259 OBP and .416 slugging. Higher average and slugging and comparable homers and RBIs to LaRoche. So that part of it, for now at least, is a wash.
Add the possibility of Saltalamaccchia at first base and it gets interesting, intriguing, in-something or other.
If LaRoche was still here, no way Salty would be getting a look at 1B. I don’t think LaRoche would have struggled with Atlanta the way he did when thrust into a primary run-producing role with all the expectations hoisted upon him by folks in Pittsburgh who viewed him as some sort of savior.
And even if he had struggled early, Bobby would have stuck with him and not brought up a rookie catcher who’s a suspect defensive 1B at this point and stuck him into a platoon with one of the best defensive first basemen in the game.
So in the end, there’s a lot to consider with that trade. So I’ll wait a judge it a year from now, when I see where Lillibridge is, where ‘Ol Rochy is, and whether Gonzalez comes back strong.
Suffice to say, the trade didn’t work out like either team hoped it would in terms of immediate impact. But it might have opened the door for the Braves to the possibility of Salty as a long-term answer at 1B. Perhaps.
And then there’s Jilly: Or Gilly? I always wondered how that should be spelled when he was here. Like it sounds, or like the old country-music club featured in Urban Cowboy? (the woman in that movie, the one who tempted Bud and briefly lured him away from Sissy, was she smokin’ hot or what?).
Giles is, I’m sorry to tell his legions of fans here, having the type of season the Braves figured he’d have. His numbers had declined in the past couple seasons, much as some of his supporters here argued otherwise.
He’s hit leadoff for San Diego and batted .258 with 16 doubles, four homers and 29 RBIs in 70 games, with a .335 OBP and .357 slugging (.692 OPS).
This after his OPS went from .916 in 2003, to .821 in 2004, to .826 in 2005, to .728 in 2006.
The Braves raised a lot of eyebrows (and rightfully so) by announcing that their second-base job was earmarked for Kelly Johnson, long as he had a good spring and showed he was ready. He never played 2B in his life, and missed the entire 2006 season after Tommy John elbow surgery.
He’s hit leadoff (until this week) for the Braves and batted .271 with 13 doubles, six triples, eight homers and 37 RBIs in 73 games, with a .373 OBP and .451 slugging percentage (.824 OPS).
His numbers are clearly better across-the-board than Giles, and Johnson is making the major league minimum ($380,000) and won’t even be eligible for arbitration for the first time until after the 2008 season.
His defense hasn’t been as solid as Giles’, but it hasn’t been bad, either.
That looks like a great decision on the Braves’ part, unless I’m missing something.
OK, moving on….
Hoss struggling in the clutch: It’s not as shocking as Andruw’s league-worst .198 average in late June, but Chipper Jones has also put up a jump-off-the-page-bad statistic near the midway point.
Chipper is tied for the league low with a .167 average (10-for-60) with runners in scoring position. The same guy who entered the season with a .298 career average in those situations.
Oft-injured Hoss is hitting .319 with a team-high 13 homers and an outstanding 1.004 OPS, but he’s tied with D.C.’s Brian Schneider for worst among NL regulars with RISP. Go figure.
Andruw is only marginally better in that department at .222 (20-for-90) and he’s second-worst in the NL in all situations with runners on base (.194). But those departments have never exactly been Andruw’s forte.
By the way, Braves RISP leaders (20 at-bats minimum) are Willie Harris (.429, 9-for-21), Edgar Renteria (.333, 25-for-75), Jeff Francoeur (.330, 29-for-88) and Matt Diaz (.306, 11-for-36).
The Jones Boys are the worst among Braves with at least 15 at-bats with RISP.
Rising relievers: Rafael Soriano, who only gives up runs in blowouts, leads NL relievers with fewest baserunners allowed per nine innings pitched (7.2), just ahead of the Dodgers’ Takashi Saito (7.3) and S.D.’s Hell’s Bells (7.4)…. Soriano’s .161 relief BA allowed ranks fourth in the NL, and Tyler Yates’ .185 ranks 10th. Chad Paroto’s .317 is fifth-highest.
Speaking of Yates, he’s allowed one run and four hits in nine June appearances.
And speaking of Salty:He’s 16-for-41 (.390) with three doubles, three homers and five RBIs in his past 14 games, including 15-for-36 (.417) in that stretch when he’s played in the field.
He’s had multi-hit games in seven of his last nine games in which he’s had more than one at-bat.
And you think the Turner Field denizens are taking to him, here’s part of the reason: He’s 12-for-29 (.414) with three homers in his past 11 home games, including 11-for-24 with five multi-hit games in six games he’s started in that stretch.
Who would you play at 1B against lefties: Salty, who’s hit .341 (14-for-41) with four homers and a .683 slugging percentage vs. lefties, or Thorman, who’s hit .193 (11-for-57) with no homers and a .246 slugging percentage vs. lefties?
Ok, a little music: With his new solo album out today, thought I’d dig into the vault for a classic Ryan Adams song with his great old band, Whiskeytown, which also featured the great Caitlin Cary, and which really should reunite, preferably soon.
”SIXTEEN DAYS” by Ryan Adams (Whiskeytown)
I got sixteen days/One for every time I’ve gone away
One for every time I should have stayed
You should have worn my wedding ring
I got sixteen days/fifteen of those are nights
Can’t sleep when the bed sheet fights/it’s way back to your side
The ghost has got me running/the ghost has got me running
away from you, away from you, away from you.
The ghost has got me running/the ghost has got me running
away from you, away from you, away from you.
I got sixteen days/got a bible and a rosary
God, I wish that you were close to me/guess I owe you an apology
I got sixteen days/fifteen of those are nights
Can’t sleep when the bed sheet fights/it’s way back to your side
The ghost has got me running/yeah, the ghost has got me running
away from you, away from you, away from you.
The ghost has got me running/yeah, the ghost has got me running
away from you, away from you, away…
Old tin cups, little paper dolls
all wrapped up, in ribbons, bowed with hearts
old tin cups, and little paper dolls
all wrapped up, in the ribbons of your heart
The ghost has got me running/yeah, the ghost has got me running
away from you, away from you, away from you.
The ghost has got me running/yeah, the ghost has got me running
away from you, away from you, away from you.
Sixteen days
I got sixteen days
It’s like before I hang
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