AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2007 > June > 25
Monday, June 25, 2007
Worse than last June?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
You folks don’t need me to tell you the Braves’ offense has been horrendous this month.
But perhaps I can illustrate the depths of this horrendousness.
Remember last June? The Braves, at least those who haven’t undergone counseling to try and forget it, surely remember.
The Braves lost 18 of their first 20 games last June. And through June 24 they were 3-19 with a .243 average, 75 runs (3.4 per game) and 21 homers for the month.
This year through June 24, they’re 8-15 with a .252 average, 70 runs (3.0 per game) and 17 homers.
That’s a slightly higher average, but fewer homers and a lot fewer hits with runners in scoring position.
They were already struggling before running into a gauntlet that’s included several of the American League’s top pitchers, and those pitchers have reduced the Braves’ bats to sawdust, figuratively speaking.
Yes, they have faced four of the AL’s top 10 in ERA: Justin Verlander (2.78), Johan Santana (2.83), Josh Beckett (3.07) and Fausto Carmona (3.21), plus C.C. Sabathia (10-2, 3.34), Kenny Rogers and Curt Schilling and a couple of other promising young pitchers including Detroit’s Andrew Miller (3-1, 2.70).
But in the past couple seasons, the Braves have often stepped up their game against some of the top pitchers in baseball, and actually hit better against them than the young and/or obscure guys.
And regardless of whom they’ve faced recently, the Braves’ offensive ineptitude at Turner Field has gone on for basically the entire season, and it’s simply inexplicable.
The Braves lead the NL with a .286 average and .452 slugging percentage. Only the loaded Tigers (.291) have hit for a higher road average in the majors, and the Tigers have been my pick to win the World Series since spring training began (yes, I also picked the Braves to win the NL East, which ain’t looking too good about now).
But how in the world does a team hit .286 on the road, second-best in the majors, and a meager .237 at home, third-worst in the majors and better than only the Padres (.233 in an extremely pitcher-friendly park) and the disintegrating and soon-to-be-blown-up White Sox (.236)?
That’s the sad thing for the Braves - they’ve played such lousy, uninspiring ball in front of home fans that want to get on board. Granted, the Red Sox fans were at least half the sold-out crowds for that series, but the Braves also drew huge crowds for the Tigers series, and Detroit fans were far outnumbers by the home supporters.
It’ll be interesting to see how the walkup crowd totals shrink if the Braves keep this up much longer, this fade in the NL East. They’re still only 4-1/2 out of first, but the Mets appear to have righted their ship while the Braves are at their absolute worst.
The Braves are 3-9 with a stunningly bad .215 average in their past 12 home games, and in eight of those games they totaled six hits or fewer and one or no runs. Eight of 12. Holy Cornelia, pass the smelling salts — or something stronger.
In their past five games, of course, the Braves are 0-5 with a .150 average and one run, that on a Chipper Jones homer. One run in five games. Their pitchers have a 5.40 ERA in that span, not that it matters a whole lot when you’re scoring one run in five games.
Home skiddin’: Remarkably, five Braves regulars are hitting .231 or lower at home, including Jeff Francoeur (.231, three homers), Brian McCann (.224, one homer), Kelly Johnson (.222, two homers), Scott Thorman (.204, three homers), and Andruw Jones (league-worst .180, seven homers).
Blame it on ‘Ol Rochy: Or at least on his Pittsburgh Pirates. The Braves’ woes began, whether you realize it or not, one pleasant Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh, when the Braves got hammered 13-2 as the Pirates averted a sweep.
Until that point, the Braves were 24-12 with a 3.83 ERA, 42 homers and an average of just over five runs scored per game.
Since then? Oh, my. They are 14-26 beginning with that loss in the Steel City, with a 4.75 ERA, 34 homers in 40 games, and an average of barely 3-1/2 runs per game.
And it’s getting worse and worse. They are 6-15 with a 4.93 ERA and and only 57 runs scored in their past 21 games, fewer than three per game.
And they are 3-9 with 28 runs in past 12 games, with nine of those runs scored in the win against sore-shouldered Schilling, the last game the Braves didn’t lose. That’s 19 runs total in the other 11 games over their past dozen.
But if you want something positive to mull over, consider this: Last year from May 29 through July 1, the Braves were 7-24 and scored 3.7 runs per game.
Then they erupted. In an 11-2 tear that began July 2, the Braves blitzed all foes. In that 13-game surge, they hit .354 with 35 homers and 9.5 runs per game.
Included was a seven-game winning streak that began with the two home games before the All-Star break vs. Cincinnati, and continued with five wins after the break at San Diego and St. Louis. They hit 20 homers in those last five. Yes, 20 homers in five games.
There’s nothing to suggest this team is about to erupt with any kind of a hitting fury. Then again, there wasn’t advance warning last summer.
Nats aren’t a pushover: Of course, no team is for the Braves right now. But Washington is 8-7 in its past 15 games, all interleague games against many of the same opponents the Braves faced.
The Nationals hit .272 and scored 65 runs in those 15 games, and we’re shut out, not even once in that stretch. They were 4-5 vs. Minnesota, Cleveland and Detroit, with three of the losses against the Tigers.
Did I mention the Tigers are 12-2 in their past 14 ROAD games with a 3.48 ERA, .316 batting average and 109 runs scored (7.8 per game)? Well, they are.
Something’s gotta give tonight: When Tim Hudson, noted Nats-killer (yes, sounds ridiculous) faces Jason Bergmann, inexplicable Braves/Smoltz nemesis.
Hudson is 3-1 with a 1.30 ERA in six starts vs. Montreal-Washington. Bergmann is 2-1 with a 2.35 ERA in 10 games (four starts) vs. Atlanta, including just three hits (yes, THREE) and one run allowed in 14 innings of two starts this season, both Washington wins vs. Smoltz.
Bergmann held them to two hits and one run in eight innings of a May 14 game at Washington, and hasn’t pitched since. He went on the DL with a sore elbow after that game. Probably no coincidence he picked this day to come off the DL, huh?
Buehrle’s the answer? Really? Speaking of Hudson, let’s file this comparison under The Grass is Always Greener.
So much has been written and discussed of the Braves’ interest in Mark Buehrle, and what would they have to give up to get the White Sox pitcher, who threw a no-hitter earlier this season.
Well, folks, not to throw a wet blanket on the Buehrle-can-save-us crowd, but over the past couple of seasons he’s not been the ace he was in the previous five or six years.
And if you don’t believe me, consider this:
Tim Hudson, the man so many here love to pick apart and dismiss (and I’ll agree he’s not met expectations), Tim Hudson is 19-17 with a 4.40 ERA in 51 starts since the beginning of the 2006 season.
In that same period, Buehrle is 16-17 with a 4.48 ERA in 46 starts.
Hudson has a .263 opponents’ average (29 homers allowed) with 199 strikeouts and 105 walks in 323-1/3 innings during that period.
Buehrle has a .285 opponents average (49 homers allowed) with 158 strikeouts and 65 walks in 297 innings over that period.
You tell me, would it be worth giving up a top prospect, and probably more, to get a pitcher who’s put up mostly inferior stats to Hudson over the past two seasons? And remember, Buehrle can become a free agent after the season.
Just asking. Maybe I’m missing something.
Slumps Are Us: In his past 24 games, McCann is 15-for-86 (.174), with more errors (three) than homers (two)… Francoeur is 27-for-120 (.225) with five extra-base hits (one homer) and 11 RBIs in his past 31 games…. Chris Woodward is 2-for-25 (.080) in his past 15 games…. Andruw Jones is 3-for-44 (.068) with no extra-base hits, no RBIs, four walks and a .214 OPS in his past 12 games, and has a .167 average in his past 48 games.
Andruw’s missed opportunities: The Braves with the most at-bats with runners on base are Edgar Renteria, who’s a robust 44-for-128 (.344) with a .508 slugging percentage in those situations, and Andruw, who’s 25-for-129 (.194) with a .380 slugging pecentage in those situations…. Four Braves regulars are hitting under .270 with runners in scoring position: McCann (.269), Thorman (.267), Andruw (.224) and Chipper Jones (.172), who’s just 10-for-58 in those situations, 126 points lower than his previous career average with RISP.
OK, we need a break. Let’s turn to a giant:
”SHOOTING STAR” by Bob Dylan
Seen a shooting star tonight/And I thought of you.
You were trying to break into another world/A world I never knew.
I always kind of wondered/If you ever made it through.
Seen a shooting star tonight/And I thought of you.
Seen a shooting star tonight/And I thought of me.
If I was still the same/If I ever became what you wanted me to be
Did I miss the mark or/Over-step the line/That only you could see?
Seen a shooting star tonight/And I thought of me.
Listen to the engine, listen to the bell/As the last fire truck from hell
Goes rolling by, all good people are praying,
It’s the last temptation/The last account
The last time you might hear the sermon on the mount/The last radio is playing.
Seen a shooting star tonight/Slip Away.
Tomorrow will be another day.
Guess it’s too late to say the things to you/That you needed to hear me say.
Seen a shooting star tonight/Slip away.
