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Tuesday, June 12, 2007
Overrated? OVERRATED?! Boras upset by Andruw critique
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Shortly after landing in Minneapolis today, I got a call from Scott Boras (Andruw Jones’ uber-agent, for those who’ve been away for a decade), which was a bit unusual because I hadn’t called him in several weeks, and last time I did call him he didn’t return the call.
So when I answered today and hear that distinct voice on the other end of the phone (he’s got one of those inimitable voices you know right away), I thought, “Oh, God, what did I write that he’s incensed about?” I was braced for a shouting match, since I’ve had a couple with Scott in the past over things I wrote that he didn’t like and/or believe to be accurate.
But it quickly became apparent this would be a pleasant call, at least as far as Scott aiming his fire elsewhere. He wanted to talk about Jayson Stark’s new book, “The Stark Truth: The Most Overrated and Underrated Players in Baseball History,” in which the baseball writer calls Andruw Jones the “most overrated center fielder of all time.”
Before we get to that, let me tell you guys that Boras told me there’s been no negotiations, not contract talks whatsoever between him and the Braves regarding Jones. And they don’t plan to have any until after the season.
“We’ve all agreed we’re not going to discuss anything about contracts until the season’s over,” Boras said. “Andruw is an Atlanta Brave and he’s going to work through the season to help his team win, then we’re going to discuss all the contract stuff and what Andruw wants to do. Andruw’s preference was to not negotiate until after the season.”
(I have to admit, I was wrong in this respect when I told a blogger here a couple days ago that Andruw had not said he wouldn’t negotiate during the season. He said this spring, specifically when I asked him, that he would negotiate any time).
(Oh, and I’m going to give you my educated guess again and say, ain’t going to be any hometown discount. But that’s just me talking.)
As another aside, I’ve gotta tell you, this assertion by Jayson has drawn a lot of incredulous reactions from writers I’ve talked to. Everyone respects Jayson, who is very informative and entertaining, but I haven’t run into another writer who really believes Andruw Jones to be highly overrated. Or overrated at all.
Not in the past, and not since the book starting getting a lot of attention.
I don’t need zone ratings and putout totals to tell me when I’m seeing a great defensive player. I know what I see, and in Jones I see one of the best two or three center fielders of the past 25 years (I’m 43, so I’ll confine it to a period I’m very familiar with), and perhaps the best.
But anyway, Boras obviously has a dog in this fight (or maybe that’s a poor choice of words in an Atlanta-based blog these days, huh?). Uh, he has a vested interest, obviously, since he represents Andruw and his client can be a free agent after the season.
And Scott is hardly one to talk about bending stats to fit his needs. The man is an absolute negotiating beast. Takes no prisoners. None better.
But I gotta agree with him on this. I’m watching Andruw make plays this season and thinking, this is not the most overrated center fielder of all time. This is not an overrated center fielder. An overrated hitter? That’s open for debate, certainly. But that’s not what Jayson was talking about.
No, he specifically cited Andruw’s decline in defensive “putout” totals in recent years, the fact that he had about 100 fewer outouts in each of the past few years - 390 in 2003, 389 in 2004, 365 in 2005, 377 in 2006 - compared to his peak, jaw-dropping totals of 493 in 1999 and 461 in 2001.
Well, Boras has a law degree, a very large and well-paid staff, and a statistical database that, I kid you not, is managed by a former NASA dude that Boras hired to come over to his firm.
So Boras, peeved over the portrayal of his client as some sort of broken-down fielder who doesn’t get to half the balls he once got to, went to work to try and disprove Stark.
Boras said he was up late last night crunching numbers and doing statistical analysis between Andruw and Willie Mays — have I mentioned that Boras thinks very highly of Andruw? — and after finding just what he was looking for, he called me and, I’m sure, a couple other writers today and spewed forth the stats.
He went on an ESPN show this morning and did the same.
A few of Boras’ main points of emphasis: Mays was the only other outfielder to have five consecutive seasons of 400 or more putouts, which he did from 1954-1958 in 154-game seasons. Boras added a generous 25 putouts for the eight-game difference and said Mays still never would’ve matched Andruw’s 493.
But what was strikingly - or starkly? — similar to Andruw’s stats was how Mays then had three consecutive seasons with fewer than 400 putouts from 1959 (he had 353 that season) through 1961.
“Then when Willie was 30, he went back over 400 [putouts] just like Andruw is doing,” said Boras.
Indeed, Willie jacked his total back up to 429 in 1962, the first 162-game season. This year, Andruw leads the majors with 190 putouts, on pace for 475, which would be his second-highest total.
OK, I know, your heads are spinning. But just bear with me a second longer.
Boras went on to talk about how Stark didn’t compare Jones with other top fielders of today’s game, or to note how “indexes” affect the nunbers from year to year, which is reflected by all the top fielders having lower totals in recent seasons.
“His failed research, the only way he could manipulate the numbers to stir up some kind of controversy … was by comparing Andruw to Andruw,” said Boras, who pointed out that Jones had 45 more putouts last season than Toronto’s Vernon Wells and 34 more than Minnesota’s Torii Hunter, who both won Gold Gloves (Andruw won his ninth consecutive Gold Glove).
“He fails to point out that none of the center fielders are getting to 400 [in recent seasons],” Boras said. “You have to look at indexes of baseball.”
Hey, folks, don’t ask me to define the indexes. Google it and see if that works.
Boras pointed out that Hunter’s total last season was far below his best, “and no one is saying Torii Hunter is in decline.”
He pointed out that the great Mickey Mantle’s peak was 372 putouts (again, in a 154-season, not 162).
Boras said Jones and Carlos Beltran (another horse in the Boras stable) were the only outfielders with 1,500 putouts in the past four seasons.
He pointed out that Andruw has played with 37 different left fielders as a Brave, and that it hasn’t affected his defense.
He got into a rant on “zone ratings” (Stark also cited that defensive stat), with Boras explaining, “The fallacy of zone rating is if you have greater range you’ll have more attempts used against you, and not be credited for the greater range.”
(His longer explanation made sense, but I can’t find it in my notes. I think I spilled part of my chicken sandwich on it or something. He explained how good fielders are actually penalized for getting to balls out of their zone, like Andruw does. Boras said he had reduced a negative zone rating to shreds in someone’s arbitration hearing.)
He went on and on. The man doesn’t tire — Boras, I’m talking about — and I’m fairly certain he does not require sleep.
“I have no problem with people taking opinions,” Boras said. “But when you say things about Andruw Jones, you’re talking about hallowed ground. You’re talking about a Hall of Famer.”
(Thank goodness he doesn’t read the Braves/MIB blog, huh?)
Boras was particularly upset by the reference to an unnamed “old scout friend” whom Stark wrote was the one who initially told him he thought Jones wasn’t the player he’d been made out to be and why, and told him how he wasn’t getting to balls he used to get to, etc.
“There is no scout in the world who would watch this man play and say what [Stark] said he did,” Boras said. “He would be a fool, and the statistics bear that out.”
OK, I’m not even going to get into the discussion of offense, which Boras said clearly made Jones a better all-around player than Wells or Hunter or other center fielders in today’s game.
“His standard of greatness is so high, and when you add the offense Andruw is clearly better,” Boras said. “Andruw’s offese in 2004, ‘05 and ‘06 is dramatically improved over his offense of 1998 or 1999. He’s in fact a better all-around player because of that.”
(Perhaps, but if he hit better with RISP he’d have an MVP award.)
When I asked Boras if he thought the book could possibly hurt Jones’ reputation and maybe hurt him at the bargaining table next winter, Boras scoffed.
“I don’t in any way think it hurts him,” he said. “I think it’s going to draw attention to the fact that this book is based on analysis of greatness vs. greatness. To suggest that Andruw Jones is not the greatest center fielder in the game….
“[Stark] takes a narrow, myopic view for the purpose of profiteering off this book. He uses the ‘old scout crap,’ and just comes in with these numbers without comparing them to anything else.”
And he added this little nugget: “Willie Mays told me, and I quote, ‘The only player I’ve ever seen play center field that I consider comparable to me is Andruw Jones.’
“And I’ve got Jayson Stark telling me Andruw is overrated based on putouts over four seasons.”
Uh, I think I’ll hold off on that article criticizing Boras’ handling of first-year drafted players….
OK, news of the day, Edgar scratched: I gotta keep it brief so I can get to writing my notebook. That Boras tome just took too much time.
Edgar’s hand still was sore and he’s out of the lineup. The Braves had two lineups on the board when I got to the clubhouse this afternoon, one with Edgar and one without. When he told Bobby it was still too sore, he was scratched. They think he’ll be ready tomorrow.
Chipper doing better. Much better. If you could’ve seen him launching balls over the fences at the Metrodome in batting practice, you’d never know he’s been on the DL the past three weeks.
Bobby said before BP he didn’t think Chipper would be ready today or tomorrow, but maybe Thursday. But Chipper sounded more optimistic, and said if he generated bat speed and hit balls hard in BP, he’d probably ask to play Thursday.
I’m betting he’s activated and in the lineup DHing on Thursday.
By the way, that’s going to be the position-player move Bobby had promised for the Minnnesota series. Since Chipper’s getting back a few days earlier than previously thought, they’re just going to wait and send a pitcher down when Chipper’s activated.
Smoltz not definite: But Cox sounded like he’s counting fully on Smoltz pitching Friday’s series opener at Cleveland. I can tell you more after the game, because Smoltz tested his sore shoulder with a bullpen session before the game tonight, but the clubhouse was closed by the time he finished.
It was the first bullpen session in more than a week for Smoltz, who skipped his last turn in the rotation because of his shoulder.
Turnaround in left field: We all knew that the left-field platoon has been dramatically improved since the arrival of Willie Harris to replace the traded Ryan Langerhans. But here’s just how dramatic the change has been.
In the pre-Willie era before April 29, Braves left fielders hit .163 with a .229 on-base percentage.
Since Harris joined Matt Diaz in the platoon, Braves left fielders led the majors with a .376 average and rank second with a .416 OBP. That deserves a “wow.”
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