AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2007 > May > 25
Friday, May 25, 2007
Smoltz was right, some of us wrong
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Since I’m sure you’re all sick of talking about John Smoltz and his steadfast march toward Cooperstown, we’ll change the subject today to … wait, what’s that? You’re not tired of discussing Smoltzie and his 200th win?
OK. Can’t say that I blame you. So a few more thoughts on last night’s performance by the Braves’ bearded icon against the dastardly Mets. Seven shutout innings, on top of his seven shutout innings Saturday at Fenway Park.
Ten hits, one walk and 12 strikeouts in 14 scoreless innings against arguably the best two lineups in baseball.
Not a bad way for the 40-year-old to notch Nos. 199 and 200, huh? Looks like he might have a win or two — or 20, or 40… — left in that scarred right arm.
Raise your hand if you thought Smoltz was making a bad decision when he pleaded to go back to the starting rotation after the 2004 season, after three seasons as an elite closer. Come on, get ‘em up. My hand is up.
We were wrong. Dead wrong. He said all along that his elbow would hold up better from the rigors of 220 or more innings spread over a regular every-five-days starting routine than it would in the unpredictable and full-intensity nature of the closer role.
And he was right.
Not only has he been even more valuable to the team as a starter than he would’ve been if still in the bullpen — it’s a lot easier to lead a team when you’re in the dugout with them, when you’re on the mound orchestrating every five days, when you’re with the other starters — but he’s also held up better than any of us probably imagined he could.
He’s not just having an All-Star season, he’d be among the leading candidates for the Cy Young Award if voting took place today. It doesn’t, and he’ll have to keep it going, avoid one of those three-game skids like he had last summer that cost him any chance at the Cy Young award.
But the important thing is, he and Tim Hudson, when they’re going like they are now, give the Braves as good a shot as anyone of winning in the postseason. Two dominant starting pitchers on top of their game, and a third who’s solid, give you a chance to win against anyone in any postseason series.
The Braves have enough offense to go as far as their starting pitchers and vastly improved bullpen can take them once they get to the postseason. Not that the postseaon is at all a given, because it’s not.
The Phillies are playing good ball, finally, and could be a factor down the stretch, and the Mets certainly are going to be a tough team to beat for the NL East title. No guarantee whatsoever that the wild card would come from the NL East, especially if the teams beat each other up all summer.
But so far the Braves are 11-4 vs. the Mets and Phillies, including 5-1 vs. a Phillies team that comes to town for three games beginning tonight.
The Braves obviously need to step it up against the lesser teams. And need to get the kind of pitching they’ve got from Kyle Davies in his past three starts, and hope that Lance Cormier and/or Chuck James can be steady over the rest of the season.
If they’d just get good-not-great pitching from Davies, James and Cormier, on top of what they’re getting from Smoltz and Hudson, the Braves will be in the postseason. Period. Regardless of what Andruw Jones does the rest of the season.
(Although I probably should say, they do need Chipper to be healthy at least most of the time, especially if Andruw keeps struggling).
OK, a few Smoltz numbers for ya: Since returning to the rotation to begin the 2005 season, he’s 37-18 with a 3.18 ERA in 79 starts, with 440 strikeouts and 126 walks in 535 innings.
Since Sept. 16, he’s 11-2 with a 2.11 ERA in 15 starts, including 14 quality starts (six innings or more, three earned runs or fewer) and 12 starts in which he allowed two earned runs or fewer. The Braves scored no runs while he was in the game in both losses in that period. They are 13-2 in those 15 Smoltz starts.
He’s been especially stellar at Turner Field since returning to the rotation, going 22-9 with a 2.75 ERA in 40 home starts, with 240 strikeouts and 66 walks in 288 innings. The Braves scored two runs or fewer while he was in the game in all nine of the losses.
Since July 1, Smoltz is 13-3 with a 2.43 ERA in 16 home starts, with 102 strikeouts and 26 walks in 111 innings. He’s reeled off eight consecutive home starts with two earned runs or fewer, including six with no earned runs.
Wow.
Oh, and for the season, Smoltz’s .161 average allowed with runners in scoring position remains the best among NL starters.
Speaking of surges, how ‘bout Diaz? I’d like to remind you once more that both Tampa Bay and Kansas City gave up Matt Diaz for next to nothing. Amazing.
After surpassing expectations with the Braves in 2006, they were going to sell him to a Japanese team. The Braves are glad the deal fell through.
The left fielder is hitting .347 with with four homers in 98 at-bats this season, including 19-for-40 (.475) with two homers in 17 games since May 5.
For the year, he’s 22-for-63 (.349) with three homers and a .524 slugging percentage against lefties, and 12-for-35 (.343) with a homer against righties.
He and Willie Harris have given the Braves an extremely productive left-field tandem since Ryan Langerhans was traded to Oakland, and they’ve been the Braves’ highest-average hitters in May.
As left fielders, Harris is hitting .385 (20-for-52) with five doubles and a .429 OBP, and Diaz is hitting .329 (26-for-79) with four doubles, four homers, nine RBIs and a .532 slugging percentage.
They’ve helped the Braves overcome the 3-for-40 left-field performance of Langerhans early on to give the Braves a .287 average and .340 OBP from the position for the season, with four homers and 15 RBIs.
The NL average is .273 with six homers, 25 RBIs and a .355 OBP.
Oh, and with runners on base, Diaz is hitting .342 (13-for-38) with a .395 OBP.
Speaking of driving ‘em in: Jeff Francoeur, the erstwhile free-swinger with the sub-.300 OBP, continues to show a much-improved approach at the plate.
Here’s two numbers that I think bode well in his development: He’s 10th in the NL with a .364 average (20-for-55) with runners in scoring position, and ninth with a .367 average (29-for-79) with runners on base.
Braves vs. Mets, following up: The Braves (Mark Redman) lost 11-1 to the Mets in the home opener at Turner Field. Since then the Braves are 6-2 with a 3.04 ERA vs. the Mets, allowing three runs or fewer in six of those eight games.
Since April 7, the day after thrashing the Braves in the home opener at Turner, the Mets are 2-6 with a .249 average and 26 runs in eight games vs. Atlanta, and 23-11 with a .282 average and 174 runs in 34 games against everyone else.
Glavine vs. Braves Tom Glavine is 0-2 in three starts vs. the Braves, and 5-0 in eight starts against everyone else. The Mets provided him with a total of two support runs in 11-1/3 innings while Glavine was in those two losses to the Braves and Smoltz.
Glavine is 3-11 with a 5.35 ERA in 18 starts vs. Atlanta since going to the Mets, easily his worst record against any opponent.
He’s 2-3 in his last nine starts against the Braves despite a 2.56 ERA in that span. The Mets scored two runs or fewer while he was in six of those starts.
Soriano is a menace: To opposing hitters, that is. And the Braves love it. He’s given them exactly what they hoped he would as an intimidating setup man and closer option when needed. (And tell me, don’t you think he’d be one of the best closers in baseball right now?)
When Soriano walked a batter last night, it was the first walk for Soriano in nine May appearances. He’s allowed one hit and one walk with nine strikeouts in 9-1/3 innings this month, and coverted 4 of 4 save opps.
For the season, opponents are 2-for-47 against him in late-and-close situations (they’re 0-for-25 against Tyler Yates in those situations, by the way).
Since giving up three runs twice in a three-appearance stretch in early April when he appeared overused, Soriano has been the closest thing in baseball to unhittable.
In 14 appearances since April 22: 14-1/3 innings, no runs, two hits (yes, two), four walks, 16 strikeouts, .044 opponents’ batting average.
Sheer dominance.
Now, sheer brilliance. One of my all-time favorites….
“IS ANYBODY GOING TO SAN ANTONE” by Charley Pride
Rain dripping off the brim of my hat/it sure is cold today
and here I am’a walking down sixty-six/Wish she hadn’t done me that way
Sleeping under a table at a road side park/A man could wake up dead
But it sure seems warmer than it did/Sleepin’ in our king size bed
Is anybody goin to San Antone/or Phoenix, Arizona
Anyplace is alright as long as I/Can forget I’ve ever known her
Wind whipping down the neck of my shirt/Like I ain’t got nothing on
But I’d rather fight the wind and rain/than what I’ve been fighting at home
Yonder comes a truck with the US mail/People writing letters back home
Tomorrow she’ll probably want me back/But I’ll still be just as gone
Is anybody goin to San Antone/or Pheonix Arizona
Anyplace is alright as long as I/Can forget I’ve ever known her
Anyplace is alright as long as I/forget I’ve ever known her
(whistle to fade)
