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Wednesday, May 23, 2007
Braves can sweep Mets. No, really….
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
So you’re wondering if perhaps, just maybe, there’s any chance the Braves could actually sweep the Mets in this series and take over first place in the NL East. Glad you asked.
Yes, there is. Now I’m gonna look silly nine hours from now if they get blown out in Game 2 of the series tonight. But here’s why there’s a chance, maybe even a good chance, the Braves sweep the Mets.
(Considering how poorly the just-completed road trip went for the Braves, especially three losses in four games at RFK Stadium to the Nationals, I’m kinda shocked myself that I’d be writing about them sweeping the Mets. But stay with me a second.)
OK, tonight the Braves get Oliver Perez, and we all know the lefty’s had their number for almost every meeting over the past couple of years. Perez was only beating the Braves for a while there, now he’s pitching well against everyone.
Perez is 5-3 with a 2.90 ERA in eight starts this season, and he’s received the second-best run support among NL starters - 7.25 runs per nine innings pitched, behind only Dontrelle Willis (8.14).
But he’s lost two of three road starts, and his opponents’ road average (.247) is good, but not nearly as strong as his stingy .174 at Shea Chipper.
The problem for the Braves, of course, is that Perez is 4-2 with a very impressive 2.32 ERA in his past seven starts against them, with 49 strikeouts and 15 walks in 50-1/3 innings.
He was tough against them in two of three starts starts at Turner Field in that stretch, but the Braves lit him up for six runs and three homers in 5-1/3 innings of a Sept. 26 game here last season.
So they know they can hit him.
Which brings us to Chuck James, who’ll oppose him tonight. Chuck’s been inconsistent, and only lasted longer than 5-1/3 innings in two of his nine starts (kid’s gotta start going deeper into games, even with this improved bullpen).
But at home, Chuck is 5-1 with a 2.18 ERA in his past nine starts dating to last season, with 52 strikeouts and 20 walks in 53-2/3 innings. He’s been solid in two of three home starts this season, including six shutout innings vs. Washington.
On the other hand, he’s been torched a few times against the Mets in his young career. He’s 1-2 with a 7.02 ERA in five games (three starts) against them, and gave up 10 hits and six runs (three homers) in 5-1/3 innings of his only start against them this season.
Beltran is 4-for-5 with a homer against him, Reyes 5-for-8 with a homer.
So maybe they don’t have a good chance tonight. Nevermind.
(Just kidding. They’re due against Perez. Keep in mind, I told you I didn’t believe Jorge Sosa was as good as he’d pitched this season and the Braves were confident they could beat him, which they did.)
Then there’s Glavine vs. Smoltz: Or Smoltz vs. Glavine, as most folks in Atlanta would prefer it stated. I just usually go with the visiting pitcher first, force of habit.
Tomorrow night, Smoltz goes for win No. 200. We’ll address this more in tomorrow’s blog. But how ‘bout the way the circumstances have made this an even bigger game than it would have been with Smoltz going for No. 200 against anyone?
I mean, Braves vs. Mets, Smoltz against his pal Glavine, and game’s in Atlanta. Good stuff. And the weather’s supposed to be just about perfect for ‘ball. I’d be surprised if there aren’t 45,000 on hand for that Thursday night game.
Both 40-something pitchers are surging. Smoltz is 10-2 with a 2.27 ERA in 14 starts since Sept. 16, including his seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball at Boston on Saturday.
In his past 15 home starts (since July 3), Smoltz is 12-3 with a 2.60 ERA, 97 strikeouts and 26 walks in 104. Old man loves pitching in front of the home crowd, absolutely thrives on it.
Warming up again: Kelly Johnson and Brian McCann are in lockstep, both of them slumping for much of May, both breaking out of it and catching fire again at same time.
Kelly is 5-for-11 with five extra-base hits and five RBIs in his past two starts, after going 13-for-67 (.194) with five extra-base hits and six RBIs in his previous 15 starts.
McCann is 7-for-13 with four doubles, three RBIs in his past three games, after going 6-for-35 with one extra-base hit and three RBIs in his previous 11 games.
Andruw likes facing Mets: The Mets series came at a good time for Andruw Jones, who showed signs of snapping out of his long skid with two hits in the series opener last night.
When he went 2-for-3 with a double and an RBI last night, Andruw also snapped his eight-game streak of at least one strikeout per game (17 strikeouts in those eight games).
He still has only one homer, 12 hits, a .169 average and 25 strikeouts in 71 at-bats over his past 19 games, but the Mets sure wouldn’t know he’s slumping.
Against the Metropolitans, Andruw has hit .348 (8-for-23) with five doubles, five walks and seven strikeouts this season, a .500 OBP and .565 slugging percentage.
He’s doubled in each of his past four games against them, going 7-for-13 (.538) with five doubles and three consecutive two-hit games in that stretch.
Davies is Dave Kingman. Sort of. Kyle Davies’ homer last night made the Braves pitcher 2-for-37 (.054) with two homers, 16 strikeouts and one walk in the past two seasons. That’s an .079 OBP and .216 slugging percentage.
Oh, and the numbers that are more important: Davies is 2-1 with a 1.83 in his past three starts. And that doesn’t include the start vs. the Dodgers when he pitched well until giving up the Wilson Betemit homer.
Perhaps the pride of Stockbridge is turning a corner. The Braves can only hope so, because they need back-end starts to step up. Davies and Lance Cormier, if he can recapture his spring form, could do a lot to solidify the Braves’ playoff hopes.
Looking for a starter? It’ll be interesting to see if the Braves make a play for a young veteran pitcher like, say, Rich Harden of the A’s. He’s coming off the DL soon (sore shoulder), and his salary for next few years ($2 mill this year, $4.5 next, $7 mill option for 2009) makes him affordable for a team looking for a potentially strong middle-rotation or better starter.
Unless the Braves really think they can count on Cormier, and are sure Davies is turning a corner, they need to consider trading for a starter. They’ve got a lot of position-player prospects with plenty of trade value that a team like Oakland would be interested in. And you can’t hang onto them all forever.
Braves have multiple prospects at the middle-infield spots, and they also have the man named Salty. With as many teams as the Braves have been scouting this season, it’s hard to get a handle on exactly what they’re looking for. But they have scouted a lot of Toronto games, and a few other teams with possibly available pitchers.
Stay tuned. It’s still real early for those kinds of moves. But getting closer.
Braves desirable destination: Sports Illustrated players survey question in this week edition was, “If you could play for any major league team other than your own, which one would it be?”
Leaders with 10-percent of the vote were San Diego, NY Yankees, and the Braves. Boston got 8 percent, St. Louis 7 percent.
SI said, “More than 18% of players 27 years old or younger voted for the Braves.”
San Diego has weather, Yankees have championships, and Boston and St. Louis are considered the most passionate baseball markets in the sport. Players I’ve talked to usually cite Bobby Cox as the reason they’d like to play for the Braves.
One last Mets note: Three of their six road losses this season have come in four games at Atlanta. The Mets are 13-3 everywhere else on the road.
”Smoking Cigarettes & Drinking Coffee Blues” by Marty Robbins
I guess I’ll take a walk tonight, I know that I can’t sleep
And I wont go to bed at all, I’d just lie there and weep
Instead I’ll make our favorite spot, that’s what I think I’ll do
I got those smoking cigarettes and drinking coffee blues
Smoking cigarettes and drinking coffee all night long
Wondering how a love so right could suddenly go wrong
I’d take the next bus out of town, but I gotta be near you
I got those smoking cigarettes and drinking coffee blues,
Sitting at the table where I called my baby’s name
Wondering where our love went wrong, wondering whose to blame
Listening while the jukebox play the songs that make me blue
Another cup of coffee and a cigarette or two
Smoking cigarettes and drinking coffee all night long
Wondering how a love so right could suddenly go wrong
There’s a lot of other people know the misery I go through
I got those smoking cigarettes and drinking coffee blues
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