AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2007 > May > 21
Monday, May 21, 2007
It’s bad, but it ain’t that bad
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Now that we’ve all had a week to moan and complain about everything wrong with the Braves, perhaps a step back and a realistic appraisal is in order.
First, let’s remember that the Braves still have the third-best record (26-18) in the National League and are only 2-1/2 games behind the Mets. So if they win two of three in this week’s series with the Mets at Turner Field, they’ll be 1-1/2 games behind them.
Considering the Braves won two of three in each of the previous two series with the Mets, including the one at lovely Shea, and considering Jorge Sosa is pitching one game and John Smoltz another in this series, it’s not too hard to imagine the Braves winning this series, too.
Folks in Atlanta — and those who saw him in Tampa Bay, too — know that Jorge Sosa isn’t likely to continue cruising along as he has so far. He’s just not that good, and the Braves know him better than most teams.
Glavine has pitched very well against the Braves since those first couple of seasons away, but Smoltz is going for win No. 200 in front of the home crowd in Thursday’s matchup with his pal, and I don’t see Smoltz losing that game.
Now, Oliver Perez is another story. The Braves, for whatever reason, can’t hit him like everyone else does.
On the one hand, you could say they’re due to have a big game against him. On the other, they’ve been due for some time. So why should this matchup with the lefty be any different?
So I like the Braves’ chances in two of three games in this series.
Moving on to other matters….
Andruw’s nadir: Gotta assume things can’t get any worse for Andruw Jones, who was 0-for-5 with five strikeouts in Sunday’s series finale and has never looked much worse than he did striking out with two on base to end that 6-3 loss.
But talk about past due … would Andruw, even as bad as he’s looked, surprise anyone if he went on one of his two-week binges about now? I mean, I know he’s really, really looked bad, but doesn’t change the fact that he’s capable of carrying an offense when he gets hot. And he’s gotta get hot soon. Doesn’t he?
OK, I don’t blame you for not hanging your hat on that proposition.
But still, I’m not going to be shocked if he starts raking soon. He’s not going to have a season like he envisioned, I’d say it’s safe to assume now that we’re a quarter of the way through and he’s hitting .212 and on pace to shatter the franchise strikeout record (his record) by about 40 K’s
But he’ll finish with 30 or more homers and probably about .250 or higher average, maybe even 110-120 RBIs. Really, I know that doesn’t look likely right now, but study his hitting over the years and it seems reasonable.
For now, consider this epic slump: He’s hitting .212 with 51 strikeouts in 156 at-bats, including 17 strikeouts in his past eight games. He’s hitting .196 against righties (fifth-lowest among NL regulars) with 35 strikeouts in 102 at-bats for the season.
He’s hit .191 (13-for-68) with 19 strikeouts at Turner Field (fifth-lowest home average among NL regulars).
In his past 17 games, he’s hit .138 (6-for-59) with one homer and 23 strikeouts. In his past eight games, he’s 4-for-33 with one walk, one extra-base hit and 17 strikeouts.
Oh, my.
As for the Braves … They have lost six of their past eight games primarily because of a 5.59 ERA in that stretch, although they’ve also had a lack of key hits early in games, waiting too long to put together anything.
In the weekend series at Boston, they lost two of three despite hitting .345 and scoring 20 runs. Of course, 14 of those runs came in the only game they won.
The Braves had an ugly 6.45 ERA in the series, and that’s with Smoltz and Hudson making two of the starts. Smoltz was his usual outstanding; Hudson was not.
Francoeur going strong: Those who thought Frenchy would fall off by now are probably surprised. He really does look like a much improved hitter over last season, and I don’t think there’s anything flukey to his results so far.
He’s hitting .310 with seven homers and a team-high 34 RBIs, plus a .360 OBP and .866 OPS. The OBP is more than 60 points higher than last season, and his splits have been remarkably improved in a couple of areas.
He’s hitting .297 in 111 at-bats vs. right-handers, after hitting .248 against them last season. And most stunning is the fact he’s among NL leaders with a .343 average in 24 road games, after ranking near the bottom of the majors with his .217 road average last season.
Diaz getting overlooked: Francoeur is 16-for-42 (.381) with two homers and six RBIs in his past 10 games, but he’s not the Braves’ hottest hitter. That’d be Matt Diaz, batting .489 (22-for-45) with two homers, six RBIs and a .521 OBP and 1.187 OPS in his past 19 games.
By the way, since the beginning of the 2006 season, Diaz has hit .332 with 32 extra-base hits (10 homers), 40 RBIs and a .367 OBP in 160 games and 388 at-bats. Not bad for a castoff from the Devil Rays and Royals.
What were those teams thinking when they dumped him for practically nothing?
Chipper not slowing down: Since June 24, Chipper Jones has hit .351 (120-for-342) with 30 doubles, three triples, 31 homers and 77 RBIs in 91 games. With a .434 OBP and 1.162 OPS in that span, and more walks (51) than strikeouts (49).
Think about this — Andruw Jones has more strikeouts this season (51) than Chipper has in 342 at-bats since late June.
OK, gotta get on this plane home.
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