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Friday, May 11, 2007
Dissecting LaRoche’s numbers
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Greetings from the Steel City. And you know how I know it’s the Steel City — besides the way everybody knows? The local TV station I just turned on in my hotel room was broadcasting live from Pittsburgh Steelers minicamp.
Then they got to the fact that President Bush was in town today.
They eventually mentioned the Pirates were at home tonight playing the Braves, but that was only during the weather report. Poor Pirates, a team which my cab driver reminded me hasn’t had a winning season since 1992.
Good news, though, is the weather is beautiful today in Pittsburgh. Highs in the upper 70s, a few clouds. And I’ve just had a glimpse of the inside of PNC Park for the very first time, from the front door of my hotel! I could see over the Allegheny River clear past the outfield stands to the press box overlooking home plate.
It’s a beautiful thing. And to think this is the city I used to ask Thomas Stinson to cover when I was on the beat. Ah, he has family here. And Three Rivers was no, well, PNC.
So Pittsburgh….That means Adam LaRoche is on the brain. And it brings me to a question for the blogosphere. And I’ll get to that in a second. But first, a look at LaRoche’s dreaded numbers:
Entering this weekend series against the team he was traded from in January for reliever Mike Gonzalez, LaRoche is hitting .168. It’s the second-worst batting average in the major leagues among players who play every day (have 3.1 plate appearances per game). Richie Sexson is hitting .165 for Seattle. God bless him.
And LaRoche’s average is actually on the rise. He’s raised it 35 points in May. He’s had hits in five of his last six games, including a three-hit game against the Brewers on May 5.
LaRoche has struck out 35 times, which is fifth most in the National League. He’s got 3 home runs, which at this pace would give him 15 at the end of the year. That’s less than half his total of last year - the breakout year of his career when he hit .285 for the Braves with 32 home runs and 90 RBI.
When the Braves traded LaRoche to Pittsburgh, he was greeted as a stud, a savior. In Atlanta he was supposed to contribute yes, but here in Pittsburgh, he’s supposed to be The Guy, or one of the top two or three of them anyway.
Just like it happens with players who come to Atlanta and can’t handle the expectations (Dan Kolb anyone?), might LaRoche be struggling with the expectations here?
He got booed at PNC Park not too long ago, during a 7-1 loss to the Cubs. Here’s what LaRoche told John Perrotto, of the Beaver County Times, via our notes group afterward: “Nobody likes to get booed, but I fully understand the fans’ frustration with me. They were expecting a lot more out of me than this. And they should expect more because I am better than this.”
I don’t think there’s any question there. This start is flukey bad. But now we get to my question. Dare I say it out loud, and about a guy as great as LaRoche? …..Was last year flukey good?
LaRoche is playing only his fourth full season in the majors. He’s 27 years old and in the prime of his career. Those are some of the reasons detractors had for not wanting the Braves to trade him. That’s not to mention the fact that he’s a terrific guy, laid back, funny, and great with a quote, I might add.
But is he a 30-90 guy? Or is he something else? He had 20 home runs, 78 RBIs the year before. He hit 20 one year in the minors. But he’s got that long, loopy unorthodox swing. Have pitchers figured out its holes?
And now in Pittsburgh there’s nowhere to hide. And the situation is much different than Atlanta, last year notwithstanding. Pittsburgh was 15-18 entering this series, 8 ½ games out of first place in the N.L. Central.
So yes the deal looks pretty darn good for the Braves at the moment. Gonzalez has been stellar in the eighth inning role in Bob Wickman’s absence here lately, and he leads the Braves staff with a 1.17 ERA.
The Braves love prospect Brent Lillibridge, whom they also got in the deal (which included sending minor league outfielder Jamie Romak to Pittsburgh). He’s hitting .268 with two homers, 19 runs scored and nine RBIs in AA Mississippi.
But what I want to know is if this deal is going to look good for the long haul. Is it going to be one of those trades where we say how in the world did John Schuerholz see all that coming?
There it is. I’m throwing it out there like a piece of raw meat for the masses. Have at it, if you will.
I’m about to go walk across the Roberto Clemente Bridge and watch some ball.
