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Monday, May 7, 2007
Should Braves switch cleanup hitters?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
In light of the Braves’ latest comeback and two-out hitting display Sunday vs. Los Angeles, I was sitting here thinking. What could possibly explain why this particular team is hitting better than any other in the majors in close-and-late situations (basically the seventh inning or later in close games) and with runners in scoring position and two outs regardless of inning?
And I don’t really have any answers beyond the obvious _ they have a bunch of good hitters, and their confidence is soaring in those situations because they see each other having so much success in those spots.
But I would caution that a few years ago, Johnny Estrada was leading the majors with RISP and two outs and the Braves were about as hot as they are now in those situations, then it all reversed and they couldn’t buy a hit in those spots for a couple of months. All I’m saying is, don’t expect it to last like this all season, because what they’re doing is extraordinary.
I mean, the Braves are hitting .303 with runners in scoring position and two outs, and the next-best team in the majors in that category is .289 by the Yankees. Next-best in the NL is the Mets’ .271 _ 32 points lower than Atlanta. Half the league is below .230.
The Braves are batting .325 in late-and-close situations, just ahead of St. Louis (.324), but the Braves have twice as many homers (eight), 11 more RBIs (34) and a .565 sluging percentage to St. Louis’s next-best .483.
In the AL, Seattle (.319) is the only team hitting better than .285 in late-and-close situations.
The Braves’ leaders with RISP and two outs are Kelly Johnson (.500, 7-for-14, 12 RBIs) and Jeff Francoeur (.423, 10-for-23, 19 RBIs) and Edgar Renteria (.400, 8-for-20, nine RBIs).
Their leaders in late-and-close situations: Johnson (.571, 8-for-14, seven RBis, Renteria (.429, 9-for-21, three homers, 10 RBIs), and Francoeur (.421, 8-for-19, four doubles).
Which sort of brings me to my next point….
Is Andruw the best choice for cleanup? He’s one of the most dangerous hitters in baseball when he’s hot, and arguably the most valuable player in baseball when the offense is in line with his peerless defense.
But when Andruw Jones is slumping the way he has been for most of the first 30 games of this season, at what point do the Braves consider dropping him a couple spots in the batting order? I know, it’s almost heresy with some to address this issue, and Andruw won’t like it at all (if he sees this, he’ll let me know it).
But I’m just saying, he’s hitting .229 going into tonight’s series opener vs. San Diego. He’s 1-for-17 in May, has a .170 average at Turner Field, and is tied for fourth in the majors with 33 strikeouts.
He’s got a solid five homers and 20 RBIs, but is batting just .176 with runners on base (9-for-51) and .200 with runners in scoring position (7-for-35, 15 walks, 13 strikeouts), and .188 (3-for-16) with RISP and two outs.
I know, it’s early. But Brian McCann has a .331 career average (56-for-169) with runners in scoring position, and led the majors with a .471 average with RISP and two outs last season.
Francoeur has a .330 career average (91-for-276) in those situations, a whopping 56 points above his overall career average.
This season Francoeur’s hitting .299 overall and .359 (14-for-39) with RISP, including .423 (10-for-23) with RISP and two outs.
Andruw’s increased walks are great and all, but how many RBIs might someone have hitting, say, .300 with runners in scoring in the cleanup spot for the Braves during the past few seasons?
With three guys in front of him all surging, there are runners on base virtually every time he comes up.
I randomly checked a bunch of great hitters’ stats, some cleanup hitters, most not, one retired, the rest active. Here’s every guy I downloaded, with his career average with runners in scoring position, compared to his overall average.
Albert Pujols, .345 (15 points higher than his overall career batting average)
Barry Bonds, .312 (13 points higher than his overall career batting average)
Derek Jeter, .309 (8 points below his overall career batting average)
Gary Sheffield, .315 (19 points above his overall career batting average)
Chipper Jones, .296 (8 points below his overall career batting average)
Alex Rodriguez, .305 (1 point below his overall career batting average)
Lance Berkman, .304 (1 point above his overall career batting average)
Jeff Bagwell, .308 (11 points above his overall career batting average)
Andruw Jones, .255 (11 points below his overall career batting average)
What do you guys think? Any validity to the idea of making a chance, or would it be too potentially disruptive or too much to ask of a young hitter?
Some music, if you don’t mind….
”ALTERED STATE” by Teddy Thomspon
So far things have been alright/No complaints, oh this is the good life
But sometimes i need more/Just to get up and out the door
I like to live in an altered state/It makes me love all the things i hate
And I’m happy to be alive/Don’t want to come off too straight
I like to put on my happy face/While i cry on the inside
Is it so hard to be happy/That I struggle to feel just ok
And I need a lift just to get through/Just to get up to normal with you
I like to live in an altered state/It makes me love all the things I hate
And I’m happy to be alive/Don’t want to come off too straight
I like to put on my happy face/While I cry on the inside
Yeah sometimes I need more/Just ot get up and off the floor
I like to live in an altered state/It makes me love all the things I hate
And I’m happy to be alive/Don’t want to come off too straight
I like to put on my happy face/While I cry on the inside
