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Friday, April 27, 2007
Smoltz move made perfect sense
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Not that I ever doubted John Smoltz would be back with the Braves and finish his career with the only team he’s ever pitched for in the major leagues, but here’s a few reasons it was a good move to sign him to an extension, and to do it now.
He’s about as reliable a veteran as you can find: Yes, even at 40 (next month) and after four elbow surgeries. Just consider a few numbers I crunched by going through his day-by-day pitching lines this morning:
Smoltz is 32-17 with a 3.34 ERA in 73 starts since moving back to the rotation in 2005 after three-plus season as a closer. Of the 73 starts, 49 were “quality starts” _ defined as six innings or more with three earned runs or fewer.
In 12 of the 17 losses, the Braves scored one or no runs while he was in the game, or while he was the pitcher of record. Which means in 12 of the 17 losses, he had almost no chance of winning.
And in four of the other five losses, the Braves scored two runs.
That leaves one loss. So in 73 starts, he’s lost once when the Braves scored more than two runs while he was in.
In 11 of his 24 no-decisions, the Braves scored two runs or fewer while he was in.
It should end anonymous “friend of the pitcher” rumors: You know, the rumors of how disenchanted Smoltz was with the Braves for haggling with him in the past and for making him wait before signing him to below-market extensions, etc. Or the ones about how he’s told friends he wants to finish his career back in Detroit.
If he was as disenchanted as those rumors would have you believe, or pined to go to Detroit, Smoltz would have waited and thrown himself into a free-agent bidding war in the fall. At the least, he would have waited to see what the Tigers would offer him.
He’s worth the money in this market, without question: Starting pitching is the most important component to a winning team. Period.
And if Smoltz has a season this year comparable to the past two, he could have gotten more than one guaranteed year in a contract with another team.
That’s what his new Braves contract includes _ one guaranteed year at $14 million in 2008, and a vesting option for $12 million in 2009 if he pitches 200 innings next season. Plus a club option worth either $12 mill or $13 mill in 2010, the salary to be determined by whether he pitches 200 innings in 2009.
A quick look through my salary lists shows these pitchers making $12 million or more this season, including prorated shares of signing bonuses: Curt Schilling, Carlos Zambrano, Javier Vazquez, Roy Oswalt, Bartolo Colon, Andy Pettitte, Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, A.J. Burnett, Roy Halladay, Jason Schmidt.
Oh, and Mike Hampton.
Smoltz? He’s making $8 mill this season. Or half of what Colon is getting.
It reassures fans about new ownership: Not that the Braves did it for this reason, but maybe they actually did think about the public perception.
In any event, this move would seem to refute the notion of a segment of Braves Nation that’s convinced itself that payroll’s going to be stripped, and/or the Braves are paralyzed until the sale goes through, and/or new ownership won’t approve of big contracts because they aren’t going to care about winning and blah blah blah.
The sale could get approved in 2-1/2 weeks at the owners meetings. Repeat, could. No guarantee, but it seems likely, at least from what I’ve heard.
And if it is likely, you better believe a $14 million commitment for a 40-year-old pitcher in 2008 is something that team prez Terry McGuirk would run by his potential new bosses.
Approving of this move should tell you that new ownership at least understands the importance to Braves baseball of the iconic bearded man with the scarred elbow.
Long as they’re producing and aren’t priced at levels that make no sense to team payroll, in my opinion you simply must keep Smoltz and Chipper Jones in Braves uniforms as long as they want to be in Braves uniforms. Again, that’s as long as they produce and aren’t asking for new contracts that are priced beyond their contributions to the team.
Same thing for Andruw. But if you’re talking about $18-20 mill a year, that’s entirely different for a team with a payroll that’s likely to remain below $100 million _ perhaps well below.
OK, enough about Smoltz and that new contract.
Now let’s talk about the real rotation concern. The other news that got slightly overshadowed yesterday by the Smoltz announcement (the Braves, by the way, intended to announce Smoltz today, but it got leaked early last night, so they went ahead and announced it).
The other news of the day, about Lance Cormier. Scratched from his scheduled Friday rehab start because the upper right arm’s still sore.
So what do the Braves do with their rotation? Cormier is to be examined today in Atlanta, to make sure there’s no structural damage or a tear or whatever. But best-case scenario, you gotta figure he’s out at least another couple weeks. Worst case? Well, you can imagine.
Right now you’ve got a rotation with a 4.48 ERA that’s ranked 10th in the NL. Hampton’s done for the season before he ever started (I forgot to mention above, that part of the expected Hampton insurance payment, by the way, is probably going to pay the signing bonus to Smoltz this year; part of Smoltz’s $14 mill salary in 2008 is coming in the form of a signing bonus this year).
Mark Redman has a 10.13 ERA in four starts, and has raised concerns about whether he can be the pitcher the Braves envisioned he’d be when they signed him in March to replace Hampton.
Kyle Davies had a meltdown in his last start and has a 6.19 ERA with 16 hits, 11 walks and four homers allowed in 16 innings.
And even Chuck James has struggled in his last two starts before he faces the Rockies tonight at Coors Field. But James will be fine, I think. Maybe not as sensational as last season, but he’s down the list if he’s even a concern.
What to do about Redman and/or Davies, that’s the question. You probably should give them another couple starts, at least, to see where they’re at, to see if one is clearly in a worse situation than the other, with less hope for immediate improvement.
Then, in my opinion, you replace him with Oscar Villarreal. And here’s why:
Peter Moylan has shown in his past few outings that he can be the long man Villarreal has been in the bullpen since last season. Moylan gave up three runs in an appearance right after arriving from Richmond, but since then he’s been outstanding _ just one stinkin’ hit and three walks allowed in 6-2/3 scoreless innings over his past four appearances, including three innings to bail out Redman on Tuesday at Florida.
Villarreal is 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA in five career starts, including a 3.50 ERA in four starts last season. He’s allowed 22 hits, two homers and six walks in 21 innings as a starter _ tell me that doesn’t look nice, compared to Redman’s work?
Is it an ideal solution? No. He’s not going to give you seven innings because he’s not stretched out. But the way Redman and Davies are going, they’re taxing the bullpen more than Villarreal would with five quality innings, right?
There aren’t any good starting pitchers available out there, without sacrificing a huge piece of your future in trade, and even then it’d be more salary than the team is likely to be willing to take on.
(Remember, the salaries of Hampton, Smoltz and Hudson for next season will total $42 mill, though Hampton’s $15 mill salary counts as less than $9 mill for the Braves’ own payroll purposes, taking the total to about $35-36 mill).
So the Braves go with Villarreal _ that is, if Cormier’s out a while _ as a starter for now. They’ve got young who are about to knock at the door, guys to ease into the rotation in the next few years around Hampton and Smoltz (and, they hope, Davies). Guys like lefties Matt Harrison and JoJo Reyes. But they’re young, and need more seasoning (though who knows, maybe Harrison’s ready by late summer if you absolutely feel the need to bring him up. But I doubt it).
So for now, you turn to Villarreal. Give Redman and Davies a couple more starts, decide which one of them is killing you more than the other, and replace him with Villarreal. If it’s still Redman that’s a black hole in the rotation at that point, then waivers be damned. He’s only making $750,000, but so far he’s not looked worth even that price.
Can’t spell leadership without a Z and a Y: Our favorite female sports leader does it again. And folks, those who think I’m being sarcastic, I’m not. I mean, sort of, but not really. I dig coach Suzanne Yoculan woman’s fire and ice, her cool and swagger. She rocks.
The latest example, in a story in Thursday’s USA Today headlined, “Georgia inspired to repeat.” About her UGA gymnastics team’s pursuit of another national title (for those who don’t know, Georgia is, basically, to gynmastics what Tennesee is to women’s hoops, and then some. Am I right, those of you who know?) They’re trying to repeat as national champs this weekend.
“Nobody wants us to win for three reasons,” coach Yoculan said. “They think it would be better for the sport if we don’t win, and I can’t disagree with that. People root for the underdog, and we’re usually not the underdog. And, third, they don’t like me.”
Well, we do. A lot.
As Ms. Y said a week ago, don’t even put on the leotard if you ain’t in it to win it (I’m paraphrasing).
And now, a little music… Just found out the great Joseph Arthur is playing here Sunday night in Denver. Gonna have to try to make that show, for sure. Born in Akron, he lives in NYC, but in the early 1990s Arthur was playing local Atlanta clubs when he was signed by Peter Gabriel to Gabriel’s “Real World” label.
Very interesting, dark background to Arthur’s life. Lot going on in that man’s head, as you can tell just from the rather disturbing, but beautiful, album covers he’s painted for his own work. Not to mention his lyrics….
“REDEMPTION’S SON” by Joseph Arthur
I don’t know where we’ve been/Could you tell me where we are again?
And Jesus is my only friend/No one else knows who I am
I know I’ll never make it on the cross/Spent my days looking for what my daddy lost
He was too proud to have a boss/Sold himself out then he couldn’t afford the cost
No one knows how he felt/Hung himself in the county jail
There were those who said he would burn in hell/I don’t think they knew him very well
Angel of love/Shine a light on us
I was born to be/Redemption’s son
Angel of love/Shine a light on us
I was born to be/Redemption’s son
Forgive us for what we’ve done, Lord
Forgive us for what we’ve done
I don’t know were we are/Fearful eyes don’t see very far
Drivin’ in my daddy’s car/Ashtray full of his cigars
Is it real what I see…/His ghost ridin’ next to me?
‘Till he’s gone I won’t be free/From the burden of his misery
I know I’ll never make it on the cross/Spent my days looking for what my daddy lost
He was too proud to have a boss/Sold himself out then he couldn’t afford the cost
All over the neighborhood/Mostly he was misunderstood
In his heart the bad beat the good/Used to be a time I’da killed him if I could
Angel of love/Shine a light on us
I was born to be/Redemption’s son
Angel of love/Shine a light on us
I was born to be/Redemption’s son
Forgive us for what we’ve done, Lord
Forgive us for what we’ve done, Lord
Forgive us for what we’ve done….
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