AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2007 > April > 18
Wednesday, April 18, 2007
Any way you slice it, they’re 9-4
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Hello again, denizens. Glad to be back after a couple days away from the team.
And before we get started, I would like to remind those of you bemoaning the Braves’ lack of offense — and those of you who play for the Thrashers, who apparently need an inspirational message — of the immortal recent words of Georgia women’s gymnastics coach Suzanne Yoculan.
She said before her squad’s regional meet last Saturday: “We should win easily, and we intend to make a statement. If you’re not out there wanting to win, there’s no business putting on the leotard.”
Notre Dame football has “Play like a champion today.” But give me, “If you’re not out there wanting to win, there’s no business putting on the leotard.”
Anyway, we digress. Where were we? Oh, yes…
The Braves were willing to sacrifice offense for arms this winter because they believed they’d still score enough runs to win if they could fortify their pitching staff. So far, they’ve been able to do exactly that.
Just did some numbers crunching, comparing last year’s start to this one, and came up with something interesting (and remember, last year’s start was in unseasonably cold, wet temps out in California, this year in similar, even colder conditions in … well, everywhere the Braves have been):
The Braves allowed six or more runs in eight of their first 10 games last season and allowed five in one other, which is why they hit .290, scored 6.9 runs per game and still had a losing record after 10 games.
This season they’ve allowed six runs or more in only two of the first 13 games (and five in one other), which is why they’ve been able to hit .235 and score just 4.6 runs per game and still have the majors’ second-best record (9-4).
By the way, the Dodgers (10-4) have the best record, and I’d like to take this time to pat myself on the back by noting that I picked the Braves, Brewers and Dodgers to win the NL divisions, and the Tigers to beat the Dodgers in the World Series. Now, if the Brewers would just cooperate….
The Braves got off to their good start despite getting very little from 1B and LF, and not much but walks from leadoff man/2B Kelly Johnson until his four hits Tuesday, and little other than a few homers from Andruw Jones.
They’re in first place despite getting two bad starts (actually one mediocre start and one horrendous start) from Mark Redman, and getting about three walks per inning from since-demoted lefty Macay McBride and less-than-expected from lefty Mike Gonzalez, one of the arms they sacrificed offense to get this winter.
So it’s hard for anyone to say the Braves’ record is flukey. On balance, with the starting pitching they have and the improved bullpen, and with what they expect to get out of the Jonses, Brian McCann, Renteria, et al, over the course of a season, this is definitely a team capable of winning the division.
They do need to get more production from LF, either by playing Diaz more and hoping he can continue producing in a full-time role as efficiently as he does in a part-time role, or by getting more from Ryan Langerhans in the platoon, or, in the absence of either of those developments, making a move eventually to improve the position. But it’s too early to be overly concerned.
For those who haven’t noticed, there aren’t a lot of trades made in the first couple months of the season, when most teams are taking a good, long look at what they have on their major league teams and what they might have ready in the minors. So don’t expect any trades to be made in the immediate future. Not the way it works. Maybe they’ll make an exception, but I don’t see that happening.
A good point to bold-face something: Just to break up the gray and keep people from losing interest. Now that I’ve got you back, consider this:
The Braves lead the NL with 18 HRs — no other team has more than 14 — but only the Nationals (.232) have hit for a lower average than the Braves (.235). And the Nationals, well, they’re really not very good. Not very good at all.
Only Colorado hitters have more strikeouts (102) than Atlanta hitters (99). However, the Braves do have those homers and 60 walks, more walks than any NL team except Philly (72).
If the role of the leadoff guy is primarily to get on base… then has Kelly Johnson really been as bad as some of you claim? Yes, the great leadoff hitters do more, including disrupting pitchers when they get on base.
But there aren’t many great ones around anymore. And Rickey _ or Fookie, for that matter — ain’t walking through that Braves clubhouse door anytime soon.
Yes, Johnson was hitting a godawful .154 before last night’s 4-for-5 raised his average to .222. But even when hitting below the Mendoza Line, his on-base percentage was well above .300.
Yes, teams want their leadoff guy to be closer to .400 than to .300 OBP, for sure, but I’m just saying it wasn’t as bad as some made it out to be, and certainly not bad enough to trash after two weeks all the planning and offseason work that went into making him the second base.
Bottom line, he’s got a .352 OBP today, with two doubles, two homers, two stolen bases, five RBIs, nine walks and 11 runs in 12 games.
The man he replaced, Marcus Giles, is off to a very good start for the Padres, by all accounts. But look closer and Giles — again, having a good year so far, I agree wholeheartedly — has a .365 OBP with with two doubles, two homers, two stolen bases, nine RBIs, four walks and eight runs in 14 games.
Compare their two lines, consider that Johnson missed the entire 2006 season, and tell me how the Braves would be a whole lot better off at this point of the season if Giles had been leading off. Seriously, compare their stats.
Cubs coming to town: And they’ve got some issues. Manager is throwing guys under the bus, Soriano’s hurt (not badly, but probably won’t play vs. Braves), their outfield defense is atrocious unless rookie sensation Felix Pie is in there…. Hey, they’re the Cubs. They’ll still fill Wrigley Pub all summer.
The Cubs committed, what, $300 billion, er, million, to free agents this winter? And right now they have eight home runs — 10 fewer than the Braves.
Noticed this stat that should give you some indication of how relatively lefty-loaded the NL East is this season. The Cubs, who so far have faced Cincy, Houston, Milwaukee and San Diego, have had a mere 30 at-bats (4-for-30) vs. lefties.
The Braves have had 174 at-bats — an astonishingly high number _ vs. lefties, and hit .253. They have almost 50 percent more hits (44) vs. lefties than the Cubs have at-bats vs. lefties.
Here’s another weird stat: Eight of the Cubs’ 35 extra-base hits have been homers, while 18 of the Braves’ 36 extra-base hits have been homers. Yes, half of their extra-base hits have been homers.
Trends continue, some good, some not: He’s one of the best defensive left fielders I’ve seen, but Langerhans continues to not save as many runs with his glove as he’s not driving in with his bat. (Did I just come up with a Yogi-ism? I think so. Or close.)
Since April 15, 2006, Langerhans has hit .211 with 12 doubles, five homers, 20 RBIs and 95 strikeouts and 308 at-bats. Wwith a .320 OBP and .632 OPS….
Since being traded to the Braves after the 2005 season, Edgar Renteria has played exactly 162 games and hit .293 with 42 doubles, 16 homers, a .363 OBP and an .801 OPS, with 18 stolen bases and 15 errors….
Adam LaRoche’s breakout 2006 season ended with a three-week slump that didn’t draw much attention because his overall stats were so good (.285, 32 homers, 90 RBI). But here’s what he’s done since Sept. 14: .155 (15-for-97) with three homers, six RBIs, nine walks, 36 strikeouts, .226 OBP, .504 OPS….
Craig Wilson hasn’t done much hitting since two weeks after he was traded to the Yankees from Pittsburgh. Since Aug. 16, he’s hit .157 (13-for-83) with one double, two homers, three RBIs and 29 strikeouts in 83 at-bats. The man has as many errors (three) as extra-base hits (three) in that 40-game span….
Which is not good, especially considering he’s in first-place platoon with rookie Scott Thorman, who also hasn’t hit for a while.
Thor was mighty in early July, hitting .382 with four homers and nine RBIs in his first 13 games that month. But since then? He’s hit .194 (18-for-93) with two homers, eight RBIs and 20 strikeouts, though he does have eight doubles in that stretch.
“EYES ON THE PRIZE” by M. Ward
Everything I’ve learned I have forgotten/Everything I’ve forgotten looks just like new
I pulled the ends out for the tie that binds/To keep my promise with you
With my eyes on the prize/And my mind on you
I put my pride on the line/My whole life, too
Now anything you ask me for is yours/Now say the word and I’ll lay it at your feet
I’ll meet the pavements down the line somehow/If you keep your promise with me
With my eyes on the prize/And my mind on you
I put my pride on the line/And my whole life, too
You say, take your axe and fashion me a kind of swing
Walkin’ blues have played a number on my feet
I’ll dance whatever dance you need to dance/’Cause you keep you promise with me
You’ll keep your promise with me
You’ll keep your promise
You’ll keep your promise
You’ll keep your promise with me
