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Thursday, April 12, 2007
Is this Hudson the ace?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It’s only two starts, obviously too early to determine whether Tim Hudson is back to his peak Oakland A’s form.
So let’s do it anyway. (And I realize that Hudson pitched Tuesday, not last night, but I was off yesterday and didn’t blog, so I’m gonna address him today, then get to other matters.)
The Braves are 7-1, best in ‘ball, and there are signs that Hudson, with a nasty splitter _ vastly improved over the past few years _ and that extra 2-3 MPH he’s on his fastball when he’s reached back for it, could be back to 2003 form.
That’s the year he went 16-7 with a 2.70 ERA in 240 innings for the A’s, his last truly dominant season, the fourth year in a row he won at least 15 games, pitched over 200 innings, and posted more than 150 strikeouts.
In the three seasons since he hasn’t won 15, hasn’t recorded 150 strikeouts, and pitched 200 innings only once.
But after his seven scoreless innings of three-hit ball with seven strikeouts Tuesday against the hapless Nationals, Hudson is 1-0 with an 0.64 ERA in two starts, and his .111 opponents’ batting average (they are 5-for-45 against him) is 32 points better than the NL’s next-best among starters, and his .216 oppoents’ OBP and .200 opponents’ slugging are also in the top five.
Now, before we get carried away, it should be pointed out this is not the first time Hudson has gotten off to a great start in recent years, only to run into difficulties soon after. In fact, it’s his third strong start in four years.
And even Hudson concedes he hasn’t had a dominant season end-to-end since 2003.
In 2004 he went 2-0 with a 1.27 ERA in his first three starts, then 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA in his next three, all on the road including Yankee Stadium. He spent six weeks on the DL (his first DL stint) that summer for a strained oblique and finished 12-6 with a 3.53 ERA in 27 starts in his last year with Oakland.
In 2005, his first season with the Braves, he went 2-0 with an 0.96 ERA in his first four starts, then 1-2 with a 7.41 ERA in his next three.
But last season he went 0-1 with a 9.20 ERA in his first three, setting the tone for his career-worst season (13-12, 4.86 ERA, 25 homers allowed, 141 K/79 walks).
So the fast start, after his much-discussed intensified offseason conditioning program and his vow to get things right and get back to being the ace the Braves expected him to be, is viewed as a huge positive by the Braves and by Hudson.
But it’s not just the numbers he’s put up in two starts against the Phillies and Nationals, it’s the form he’s shown for most of the spring and these first two starts. The split is something we rarely saw from him since he came to the Braves, because Hudson, for whatever reason, wasn’t comfortable with it.
(Pitching is the greatest mystery in sports in so many ways. From year to year, guys can change so much, feel so good about this pitch or going inside on hitters one year, then completely different the next….)
Hudson says the last time he felt confident in his split _ splitter, split-fingered fastball, whatever your preferred term _ was in 2003 with the A’s.
Tim Hudson was 83-33 with a 3.23 ERA and .239 opponents’ average in the first 160 starts of his career, through April 21, 2004.
He was 36-27 with a 4.11 ERA and .271 opponents’ average in his next 87 starts through the end of last season.
The decline began midway through his final season with the A’s. Could it be reversed now? No reason it can’t, long as he’s healthy, which he is now. The guy is only 31 years old, so this should be the prime of his career.
Given his relatively slight build and all the torque he generates with his hips, some assumed he had begun an earlier decline that most pitchers in large part because of health issues that would continue to worsen and plague him.
But Hudson, so far at least, is showing plenty of reason to dispute that. He’s pitching like an ace. And let me tell you this: If John Smoltz pitches anywhere near as well as he has for the past two seasons since returning to the rotation, and Hudson pitches anywhere near as well as he did for almost his entire career with Oakland, then the Braves’ have a 1-2 punch that few teams can match.
And it can’t be overstated how much that helps Chuck James and the rest of the starters, who feel less pressure and probably won’t have to try to end any long team losing streaks.
Instead, they’ve got the two horses at the front of the rotation carrying the load, and the vastly improved bullpen behind them so they don’t have to pace themselves.
That’s the other thing _ Smoltz and Hudson, because of that bullpen, are less inclined to try to go that extra inning when they’re running on fumes. They know, even the proud and stubborn Smoltz, that the guys that Bobby Cox will be bringing in to relieve them probably have a far better chance of getting guys out than Smoltz or Hudson with their tanks on empty.
The last couple of seasons, Smoltz especially felt the responsibility to stay in games and try to finish them off, rather than turn it over to a shaky bullpen. Not necessary now. And if Hudson is pitching so well behind him, Smoltz also shouldn’t feel so much pressure if the Braves have a three-game losing skid or if the back of the rotation is struggling a little.
OK, I wore out that topic. Sorry for the long-windedness.
Francoeur at home: This home/road thing with Frenchy continues to boggle the mind. I mean, if all games were home games, he might be an MVP candidate, or at least get a few votes.
The guy is an offensive force at home. On the road? Uh, well….
The pride of Lilburn is 7-for-19 (.368) with two doubles, two homer and eight RBIs in five games this season at Turner Field, after going 3-for-13 with one RBI in the opening series at Philly.
No big deal, right? I mean, it’s just one road series. Means nothing.
Fair enough. Let’s wait and see what he does on the three-city trip to New York, Florida and Colorado at the end of the month before jumping to any conclusions.
Still, his start to his season only continues the trend he started last April.
Are you ready for this? In his past 84 home games, Francoeur has hit .313 with 17 doubles, 21 homers, 73 RBIs, a .349 OBP (yes, a .349 OBP) and a .907 OPS.
In his past 84 road games, he’s hit .218 with 10 doubles, 10 homers, 39 RBIs, a .247 OBP and a .614 OPS.
That’s more than 100 points higher in home average, more than 100 points in OBP, and nearly 300 _ 300! _ points higher in OPS.
Oliver Perez needs Braves: In case you missed it, the Mets lefty issued seven walks in 2-2/3 innings before getting lifted in Wednesday’s loss to the Phillies.
Our research into the Man Who Only Excels Versus Atlanta shows that Perez, since June 1, is 2-0 with an 0.56 ERA in two starts against the Brave. Against everyone else, he’s 0-9 with an 8.89 ERA in 12 starts over that wretched stretch.
That’s unbelievable. Or, as Livan Hernandez would tell me, “That’s baseball.”
Former Braves watch: Marcus Giles was 11-for-33 with two doubles, a homer, four RBIs and a .395 OBP for the Padres, all from the leadoff spot. Two other members of last year’s Braves are not doing quite as well. Adam LaRoche was 3-for-31 (.097) with a homer, two RBIs and 14 strikeouts for Pittsburgh, and Wilson Betemit was 1-for-19 (.053) with two RBIs for the Dodgers.
Two folks who haven’t hit lefties: Betemit (0-for-9) and Craig Wilson (1-for-11).
The latter is obviously a lot more of a concern for the Braves than the former, since Wilson is playing against lefties in a 1B platoon with Scott Thorman. But Wilson’s raked against lefties his whole career and will again. I think.
Andruw lagging in votes: Greg Maddux was a runaway leader for the 50th anniversary Gold Glove team in the early results of fan balloting at www.RawlingsGoldGlove.com.
But Andruw Jones was only fifth in the outfield voting (three will make the team) behind Willie Mays (34,995), Roberto Clemente (30,511), Ken Griffey, Jr. (12,804) and Jim Edmonds (11,306). Jones had 9,453 votes as of Monday.
Voting ends June 19. The All-Time Gold Glove team will be announced in July.
Some influential Braves: I just got a chance to look at some publications that were stacked up in my mail in recent weeks, and saw the USA Today Sports Weekly list of the 50 most influential people in baseball, as voted by a panel of experts they put together. There are three Braves among the 50 including No. 13 John Schuerholz (highest rated GM on the list), No. 27 Hank Aaron, and No. 42 Bobby Cox (only manager on the list).
It was a wide-ranging group including No. 1 was Bud Selig, No. 2 Donald Fehr, No. 6 Scott Boras, No. 15 Barry Bonds and No. 18 Derek Jeter. Don’t ask me how they came up with the criteria. I’m just relaying the results for those of you who might have missed it.
Also, I noticed in the last issue of that same publication before the season began, they had 14 of their writers pick the division winners and such, and only one _ ONE _ picked the Braves. My man Bob Nightengale, who knows his stuff.
Ten picked the Mets, two the Phillies, and Mel Antonen picked the Marlins.
By the way, in their list of MVP favorites, Brian McCann didn’t make the top 20 in the NL, but Garrett Atkins, Jason Bay, Todd Helton, Prince Fielder, Bill Hall and Jimmy Rollins did. Seriously.
In a related note, McCann leads the NL with a .600 average (6-for-10) with runners on base.
”THE PROMISE” by Bruce Springsteen
Johnny works in a factory and Billy works downtown
Terry works in a rock and roll band/Lookin’ for that million-dollar sound
I got a little job down in Darlington/But some nights I don’t go
Some nights I go to the drive-in, or some nights I stay home
I followed that dream just like those guys do up on the screen
And I drive a Challenger down Route 9/ through the dead ends and all the bad scenes
And when the promise was broken, I cashed in a few of my dream
Well now I built that Challenger by myself/But I needed money and so I sold it
I lived a secret I should’a kept to myself/But I got drunk one night and I told it
All my life I fought this fight/The fight that no man can never win
Every day it just gets harder to live/This dream I’m believing in
Thunder Road, oh baby you were so right
Thunder Road, there’s something dyin’ on the highway tonight
I won big once and I hit the coast
But somehow I paid the big cost
Inside I felt like I was carryin’ the broken spirits
Of all the other ones who lost
When the promise is broken you go on living
But it steals something from down in your soul
Like when the truth is spoken and it don’t make no difference
Something in your heart goes cold
I followed that dream through the southwestern flats
That dead ends in two-bit bars
And when the promise was broken I was far away from home
Sleepin’ in the back seat of a borrowed car
Thunder Road, for the lost lovers and all the fixed games
Thunder Road, for the tires rushing by in the rain
Thunder Road, Billy and me we’d always say
Thunder Road, we were gonna take it all and throw it all away
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