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Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Braves pitching shakes out like this
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
No time for sleep and proper diet or exercise in this mind-numbing stretch of spring training, when the weather’s absolutely perfect outside here in Florida but the motorcycle sits in the garage, me unable to ride because of a list of stories and other stuff due by Monday for the AJC special section.
But time must be made to feed the beast that is the Braves/Man in Black.
So before I get back to knocking out these player-bio boxes and drive over to Viera on the coast for a night game against the godawful Nationals _ OK, folks, what’s the over-and-under on Nat losses? I’m going 115 _ let’s do this.
We covered the so-called position-player question marks (LF, 2B, 1B) in the last blog, at least to some degree. So let’s hit on the pitching situation today.
Unless I’m misreading it _ possible, but I don’t think so _ then as I’ve said for a couple of weeks, I think Cormier beats out Davies for the final spot in the rotation (which is technically the No. 4 spot, but only because that’s the way it was laid out when Hampton was still projected to be in the rotation and they wanted him to have an extra couple days’ rest before what would have been his first spring start, had it not been delayed, delayed and then blown away after he pulled his oblique).
So it’ll be Smoltz, Hudson (who has looked a bit shaky at times this spring, despite his good numbers), Chuck James (also a bit shaky at times this spring, but not sure he knows it’s spring or that opening day is in, what, 12 days?), Cormier (who’s been too good this spring and last September to keep out of the rotation), and Mark Redman (who might just be the softest-tossing pitcher in the majors besides Jaime Moyer, but should be good for 10 wins with run support).
Now, what happens when/if Hampton comes back in May, assuming he avoids straining his back or pulling a calf, quad or hammy while rehabbing the oblique? Well, they ain’t paying the former 22-game winner $14.5 million to pitch for Richmond for the summer, and I’m told by a somewhat reliable source that the Braves aren’t getting insurance money for his time on the DL this year or next, that they weren’t able to renew the policy when it ran out after last season.
Which makes sense, given that the only two or three big companies that write policies on ginormous-salaried baseball players stopped writing them for more than three years back in the late 1990s, when they got taken over the coals on a few marquee players who fell apart in the middle of huge contracts.
Anyway, what happens to Hampton? He moves back into the rotation, either for someone who’s injured or someone who’s stinking it up, or just the unlucky person who’s making the least money and/or has options left (Cormier would fit the bill on both counts among the current rotation, not including Davies).
Some of you have asked about Redman, whether they might drop the lefty and go with Davies and Cormier in the last two spots. Can’t see that happening. They didn’t rush to sign Redman to an extremely affordable ($750,000) contract after Hampton’s injury so they could drop Redman after Davies had a couple of decent spring starts.
Say what you will about Redman. Say he can’t break a pane of glass with a rock and a running start (who said that? that’s mean), but the guy knows how to pitch at the major league level and has been consistent, even if consistently just-decent with a one-year splash of good, most of his career. Being consistent at the major league level is something Davies, talented as he is, is not. Not yet.
And the Braves _ or Davies _ probably can’t afford to have him go through another rollicking ride of highs and lows, with three-inning shellings that tax the bullpen and put the defense on its heels and suck the life out of a team in the early part of the season.
Davies could certainly benefit from having a couple months, or more, of solid, consistent performances at Richmond, to rebuild his confidence and remind him of how good a pitcher’s pitcher he can be.
He’s still too young and too talented to even begin to think about writing him off. I still think in a couple of years we’ll be looking at a solid major league pitcher and Davies will be talking about those first couple of seasons and what a great learning experience it was going through the struggles and injuries.
As for the bullpen… Again, as we’ve said for a while here, I think the last two spots, the only semi-available spots (though not really, if you know what I mean) entering spring training, will go to Tyler Yates, who’s out of options, and Chad Paronto, the “groundball guy” Bobby Cox likes to have (remember Kevin Gryboski, who stuck around long after he stopped being effective? Paronto’s effective most of the time, so he should stick a while).
Buddy Carlyle hasn’t given up a run this spring, but he’s a journeyman with barely half a season of major league service in 11 years of pro ball, including a couple of seasons in Japan. There’s usually a reason for that. Can some guys figure something out, or develop a pitch later in their careers, or just finally get the break they deserved? Yes, see Kenny Ray, or Peter Moylan. But….
But they’re not going to waive Yates to make room for Carlyle, who will likely go to Richmond and get a call at some point this summer, provided he’s effective down there. That’s what a performance like his in spring training can do for you _ move you to the front of the line when it comes time to call down to Richmond for help. If the bosses remember what you did in spring training, it helps.
Trade winds blowing? I don’t know. I suspect a deal will happen, but just haven’t heard any rumors yet from reliable enough sources to throw your way. But when I do, I’ll certainly share them. As we’ve said, Braves have middle infielders to spare, including out-of-options Tony Pena Jr., if any team will offer anything for him. But since teams know he’s likely to be waived, it’s tough to imagine the Braves will get much in return at this late date.
I know several teams are interested in Escobar and at least one or two in Prado, but don’t know if the Braves are willing to let either go for what they’ve been offered. Escobar’s stock has risen this spring, for sure, because he’s hit, fielded well, and demonstrated a better attitude than he had last year at Double-A Mississip.
And Prado has been talked up at every turn by the Braves, which to me sounds like they’re trying to get a team to bite on him as an every-day second baseman.
The Braves also have some extra bullpen arms they could trade, but again, it remains to be seen what teams will offer for the less-than-accomplished older guys that Atlanta has available.
Here’s one thing I can guarantee: Richmond is going to have a hell of a lot better Triple-A team than it did last season.
More on McCann…. Some of you remarked on my Brian McCann story and how astounded you were by the stats. Well, they’re even more impressive in full context. For instance, his .471 average (24-for-51) with runners in scoring position and two outs not only led the major leagues, but by a huge margin. Next-highest was some guy named Albert Pujols (.435), followed by Texas’ Michael Young (.426) and NL batting champion Freddy Sanchez (.421).
And in all situations with men on base, McCann led the majors with a .368 average, ahead of AL batting champion Joe Mauer (.367). Only other guys as high as .360: Derek Jeter (.366), Sanchez (.364), Pudge Rodriguez (.362) and Lance Berkman (.361).
McCann was in some tall cotton, indeed.
Jason Isbell was in fine form: Took a few hours away from work last night to see the Drive-By Truckers’ guitarist do a solo show at a great dive in Orlando. By solo, I mean without the other Truckers. But he has a crack band playing with him on this little tour, and the material is excellent, both the solo stuff off his upcoming album and, yes, a bunch of DBT songs.
Which really was a pleasant surprise. I mean, about 50-60 of us (that’s how many there were by the end) are standing in this hole-in-the-wall bar watching Isbell and his band play “Decoration Day” and “Outfit,” two of my favorite Truckers songs. And they closed with an ode to a Floridian, doing an excellent cover of Gainesville son Tom Petty’s “American Girl.” A good night.
Oh, one more note and a thank you: To all the bloggers, seamheads and pop-culture sponges who’ve made the Braves/Man in Black a pretty good place to hang out and engage in discourse about ‘ball, BBQ, J.R. (Cash) and other music giants, and Scorsese, Uma, Penelope and other luminaries of the silver screen. We won a Best of Cox (not from Bobby, from our newspaper chain) award for top blog. And that has at least as much to do you with you all as it does with me.
“DECORATION DAY” by Jason Isbell
It’s Decoration Day/And I’ve a mind to roll a stone on his grave.
But what would he say/”Keeping me down, boy, won’t keep me away.”
It’s Decoration Day/And I knew the Hill Boys would put us away,
but my Daddy wasn’t afraid/He said “We’ll fight till the last Lawson’s last living day.”
I never knew how it all got started/a problem with Holland before we were born
and I don’t know the name of that boy we tied down/and beat till he just couldn’t walk anymore.
But I know the caliber in Daddy’s chest/and I know what Holland Hill drives.
The state let him go, but I guess it was best/cause nobody needs all us Lawsons alive.
Daddy said one of the boys had come by/the Lumber Man’s favorite son.
He said, “Beat him real good but don’t dare let him die/and if you see Holland Hill run.
Now I said, “they ain’t give us trouble no more/that we ain’t brought down on ourselves.”
But a chain on my back and my ear to the floor/and I’ll send all the Hill Boys to hell.
It’s Decoration Day/and I’ve got a family in Mobile Bay
and they’ve never seen my Daddy’s grave./But that don’t bother me, it ain’t marked anyway.
Cause I got dead brothers in Lauderdale south/and I got dead brothers in east Tennessee.
My Daddy got shot right in front of his house/he had no one to fall on but me.
It’s Decoration Day/and I’ve got a mind to go spit on his grave.
If I was a Hill, I’d have put him away/and I’d fight till the last Lawson’s last living day.
I’d fight till the last Lawson’s last living day.
I’d fight till the last Lawson’s last living day.
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