AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2007 > March > 19
Monday, March 19, 2007
Two weeks to go, what do we know?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
After thirty-four days, 2,100 rental-car miles, 12-15 cigars and approximately 300 cups of coffee (conservative estimate), what have we learned about this Braves squad with only two weeks until opening day?
Glad you asked.
A few things, but not much definitive in the areas that were considered question marks.
Yes, Kelly Johnson looks like he can play at least serviceable defense at second base, but has he played well enough this spring to absolutely win the job? No. But that’s if there was an open competition for the job, which we’ve said several times, doesn’t appear to have been the case.
It was probably his to lose unless he fell on his face, and he hasn’t fallen on his face. So Johnson will almost certainly be the opening-day second baseman, and Martin Prado and his .406 batting average will either earn him a spot as a utility man for Atlanta or he’ll be back in the minors.
Some will say that means baseball, like life, isn’t always fair. But the Braves aren’t going to base an important decision on three weeks of spring games against a mix of minor- and major-league pitching.
And at least consider this: Johnson had a .281 average with 131 doubles, 72 homers and 274 RBIs in 2,142 minor league at-bats, while Prado has a .299 average with 87 doubles, 12 homers and 191 RBIs in 1,915 at-bats. Prado never drew more than 41 walks in a minor league season; Johnson drew 71 walks one year, and 51 and 49 in two others.
The Braves believe he can hit for .280 or higher average with 20 homers and a high on-base percentage in the majors, though maybe not right away. Prado does not project anywhere near that high in homers and isn’t a high OBP-type guy. He’s the far better defensive player, but on balance the Braves clearly thought enough of Johnson’s potential to convert him from outfield and pencil him into the 2B/leadoff spot over the winter.
And they aren’t going to chance that opinion based on three weeks of spring training games, I’m pretty certain.
That said, I think Prado’s chances of sticking around have improved in the past few days with Willy Aybar’s continued absence due to the sore hand/wrist. He was supposed to play vs. Cincinnati on Sunday but said he still couldn’t hit left-handed, and apparently he didn’t want to hit right-handed vs. a right-hander.
So the switch-hitting utility man continues to sit, with a total of nine at-bats in three games and perhaps a tenuous spot as the Braves’ backup third baseman when the season begins.
Given Chipper Jones’ health, can the Braves feel comfortable starting the season with Aybar as his backup? They’re not saying no, but I’m getting the impression they are getting uneasy now with his continued absence.
Yunel Escobar, the Cuban shortstop/third baseman who has impressed everyone _ and I mean everyone, even the cynics and grizzled types who don’t buy into hype _ is starting at third base again today. In part because Pete Orr fouled a ball off his shin yesterday (he’s OK, could have played) but also because the Braves want to see Escobar (.452 average, just one strikeout in 31 at-bats before today) as much as they can at a position he could end up playing some this season.
I don’t think they’ve ruled out the possibility of Escobar on the opening-day roster, since Chris Woodward could handle backup second base and shortstop if Escobar was needed for a stretch at third base. They would prefer to get him more seasoning, since he hasn’t played above Double-A, but Escobar is so impressive, so physically ready and so much more mature in his attitude this spring, he’s getting a good look.
And as reluctant as he was to play second base last season, Escobar hasn’t expressed any reluctance to take grounders in early work at second base this spring, and you can be assured he woudn’t object to playing there if it helped him stay on the roster.
A lot of teams are interested in Escobar, but I’m getting the impression the Braves are really not anxious to deal him unless they get a lot of talent in return, even though they’ve got middle infielders stacked up in the system. He’s special, in that his power potential separates him from most other prospects at his position, and makes him a legit candidate for an every-day third-base job if that’s where he was needed by a team.
The same can’t be said for Prado, who doesn’t hit for enough power to be a third baseman, but could play second base for a team that gets plenty of power elsewhere.
Scott Thorman is coming around: He’s started hitting the ball in the past week or so the way the Braves hoped he would and expected he would. Thorman said he always gets off to slow starts in the spring. “My swing just takes time to thaw,” the Canadian joked today when I asked him about it. He’s still hitting only .244 with no homers, two RBIs and 10 strikeouts in 45 at-bats, but he’s had two doubles and a triple in the past few days and hit a few other balls on the screws, as the baseball folks like to say.
But while Thorman is coming around, I think Craig Wilson has already won enough points with Bobby Cox to assure he’s going to get plenty of playing time at first base, and perhaps even open the season in a straight platoon, whether it’s announced or not. We’ll see. But Wilson looks good at the plate, and his sore shoulder has prevented him from playing the outfield except for one game.
Ryan Langerhans is doing what he needed to do: With Wilson unable to play left field most of the spring, and Matt Diaz scuffling (.216, two doubles, no homers, nine strikeouts in 37 at-bats), Langerhans’ .378 average (14-for-37) and two homers are looking pretty damn good, especially given his far superior defense over the other LF candidates. His beloved Longhorns bit it yesterday, but “Langy” is having a heck of a spring.
OK, we rambled with that stuff. We’ll have to wait and address what we’ve learned about the pitching staff in tomorrow’s blog. But let me know what you guys think is going to happen with the infield, the backups, and with LF. I’m curious to know what you think will happen and what should happen.
”BLACK EYE” by Jeff Tweedy (of Uncle Tupelo)
He had a black eye/He was proud of
Like some of his friends/it made him feel somewhere outside/of everything and everywhere he’d been
Like his brothers/he emptied himself/and played it safe
Like their father/he wanted to remember/but he almost always/forgot what he was gonna say
Black eye
Black eye
When he realized/that this one was here to stay
He took down/all the mirrors in the hallway/and thought only of his younger face
Black eye
Black eye
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