AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2007 > March > 05
Monday, March 5, 2007
Too early to make decisions; just enjoy the sun
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Well I’ve seen enough in less than a week’s worth of games here in sunny Florida for me to confidently make out my Braves opening day lineup:
Martin Prado, 2B; 2. Yunel Escobar, SS ….
Kidding, folks. Trying to make a point that it’s folly to even begin to base personnel decisions on what we’ve seen _ or you’ve heard about _ from a couple of weeks of workouts and a handful of games in Florida.
Or even after we’ve seen four weeks of games in Florida, in most instances.
And by that I mean, some players have track records that are going to supersede what uproven players do in spring games, especially in early spring games when half the pitchers they’re facing won’t be on opening day rosters.
That said, Prado (5-for-9 before today) and Escobar (5-for-10) are off to strong starts in camp. But I don’t know whether either had or has much chance to make the team unless there’s an injury or projected second baseman Kelly Johnson shows he just isn’t ready.
That’s not to say guys are given every job before they get here. But rather, team officials obviously put a lot of thought into what they project to be their lineup and bench and pitching staff.
They’re not going to toss aside all the hours they spent discussing it based on a few weeks of spring training games.
But again, if K. Johnson struggles this spring and Prado surpasses expectations and shows them something they didn’t expect, then I’d imagine they’ll consider reevaluating. (Escobar hasn’t worked at 2B enough to be considered, I’d assume.)
But we’re just not even close to reaching such a point of reevaluation. I haven’t seen anything yet to make me believe Johnson won’t be the second baseman. So far, he looks good defensively, but he hasn’t even handled a double-play situation in a game yet. That’s how premature it is to start giving out jobs.
(A brief aside: utility man Chris Woodward is still out with a strained calf, and will be out at least the rest of the week. And infielder Willy Aybar, who just got here Saturday, will work out a couple more days before his likely debut Wednesday. OK, back to the previous train of tought…)
I will say this regarding Escobar: I’ll predict that a year from now he’s on the 25-man roster and competing for a starting job _ whether with the Braves or another team.
With all the teams that have expressed interest in the talented Cuban, who is older (24) than most prospects, I can see the Braves coming to a fork in the road with him, where they either decide he should have a spot in their lineup within a year, or that they can fill another organization need by trading him.
Here’s the thing to think about: In every conversation I’ve had with Braves officials, coaches, etc., everyone seems to be in agreement that Brent Lillibridge is an absolute keeper.
The impossibly baby-faced shortstop, who came from Pittsburgh along with Mike Gonzalez in the LaRoche trade, is what old-school baseball folks call the proverbial “baseball player,” the kind the Braves love to have, who combines not just talent and athleticism but a baseball-player mentality and instincts.
That mentality and approach is difficult to define, but instantly recognizable by this baseball lifers when they see it, and they all see it in Lillibridge.
What that means is, I’d be willing to wager more on him being in the Braves’ lineup within two years than I would any other prospect they have, including Escobar, whose sheer physical talent is probably a bit above Lillibridge’s.
Spring training isn’t reality: No, I don’t mean as far as the games and players’ performances and all that. I mean overall. Us living in a rental house, no mail or newspaper delivery, living in what becomes a virtual baseball-only news vacuum.
And right now, sitting here on another gorgeous late morning in Central Florida, a cloudless sky, temp approaching 70 degrees, low humidity, flags atop the big green scoreboard/batter’s backdrop billowing in a light breeze, a few dozen folks standing on the grass berm beyond left field, waiting for baseballs to clear the fences, a gorgeous lady behind the Braves’ dugout applying sun screen … oh, wait, mind wandering.
Hampton, Soriano updates: Yes, both of them will someday pitch. Actually, both should pitch by this weekend, Rafael Soriano perhaps by Thursday.
Mike Hampton was far more encouraged after his latest bullpen session Saturday than he’d been previously, and will throw another Tuesday. If that goes well, he could pitch Friday vs. Pittsburgh or Saturday vs. Toronto, probably just an inning but maybe two if his pitch count is low. Talked to him this morning and he sounded a lot more upbeat than he had been last week. Said he thinks he’ll be ready when season begins, though he knows he might need to stay under control and rely more on location and change of speed, work at 86 mph instead of 90-92 for a while. “I can do that and be successful; I’ve done it before,” he said.
Roger McDowell assured me Soriano hasn’t had any setbacks and that they’re just being cautious with him because he was a late arrival to camp. But regardless of what anyone says, I’ll guarantee you there are plenty of people crossing fingers and hoping he’s completely over the post-concussion problems that kept him out of the final month of the 2006 season after he got nailed in the side of the head by that vicious line drive off the bat of Vlad Guerrero.
(BLOGMASTER NOTE: See below about later news that Soriano’s shoulder is a bit sore. How sore, not quite sure. But he was on DL last summer for 15 days with “shoulder fatigue.” Can you hear any alarm bells sounding?)
There’s a lot of competition in the bullpen … But I think when all’s said and done, there are only two openings and Chad Paronto is almost certainly assured of one. I’d bet Tyler Yates will get the other; someone would have to really surprise us this spring for the Braves to put Yates on waivers (he’s out of options). Paronto is a groundball guy and Bobby Cox likes to have one of those “double-play specialists” in the ‘pen.
But there’s so much more depth this year than there was last year when the Braves had to scrounge to find anyone to bring up from the minors who they could rely on to fill out the ‘pen. Guys like Aussies Peter Moylan (sidearmer, can be tough to hit) and Phil Stockman (98 mph fastball), young lefty Will Startup (impressive on Sunday at Dodgertown), Blaine Boyer, and talented-if-erratic Anthony Lerew, plus non-roster guys like Steve Colyer (also quite impressive Sunday) and Buddy Carlyle … all of them could be called upon at some point, and a couple of them could get strong consideration this spring for the opening day ‘pen.
But again, barring a trade, I think Paronto and Yates, at this early juncture, seem most likely to get the last two spots.
The locks, barring injury: Bob Wickman, Mike Gonzalez, Rafael Soriano, Oscar Villarreal, Macay McBride.
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