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Tuesday, February 20, 2007
Fit Andruw seeks “market value”
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
First the good news about Andruw Jones: He’s in his best shape since 1999, down 10 pounds to 225, and says he’s excited about the season and starting a new playoff streak.
The other good news: The center fielder reiterated Tuesday that he wants to spend his entire career with the Braves.
The not-so-good news for the Braves: He said, “the market value is the market value, and that’s what I’m going for.” Uh-oh.He also said he will not be traded, indicating he’d veto a trade, but also saying the Braves have assured him they didn’t try to trade him last year and aren’t going to now.
Yes, it’s going to be an eventful year for Andruw, who has 342 home runs, 1,023 RBIs and nine Gold Gloves _ and doesn’t turn 30 until April 23.
Jones, who has 92 homers and 257 RBIs over the past two seasons, will make $13.5 million this year in the final year of his contract. He’s eligible for free agency next winter if the Braves don’t sign him before then.
His agent is Scott Boras who has no peer when it comes to getting the most for his clients.
If Jones is serious about going for market value, the Braves’ only hope might be a sharp increase in team payroll if and when new owners Liberty Media finalize their purchase of the team.
Here’s what I mean: Consider that center fielder Vernon Wells signed a seven-year, $126 million contract extension this winter with Toronto, and Alfonso Soriano signed an eight-year, $136 million contract with the Chicago Cubs.
Wells is the closest comparable example to Jones, and it ain’t really that close.
Wells is 28, a career .288 hitter with a .336 OBP, 200 doubles, 141 homers, 501 RBIs, and three consecutive Gold Gloves.
He’s never hit more than 33 homers in any of his five full seasons, has topped 100 RBIs twice, with a career-high of 117 in 2003, and his highest MVP finish was eighth in 2003.
Jones is a career .267 hitter with a .345 OBP, 303 doubles, 342 homers, 1,203 RBIs, and nine consecutive Gold Gloves. He’s played at least 153 games in each of his 10 full seasons.
Jones has hit more than 33 homers in six of the past seven seasons, topped 100 RBIs in five of the past seven seasons with career-highs of 128 and 129 in the past two years, and was the MVP runner-up in 2005, when he led the majors with 51 homers.
Soriano, who’s more than a year older than Jones, is a .280 career hitter with a .325 OBP, 240 doubles, 208 homers, 210 stolen bases, 560 RBIs and no Gold Gloves. He’s hit 36 or more homers in four of his past five seasons, including a career-high 46 with 95 RBIs in 2006.
He’s also stolen 30 or more bases in five of his six full seasons, including three seasons with more than 40 (he had 41 steals and 46 homers last season).
So there’s the market that’s been set, really. If Andruw is serious about getting market value, and isn’t prepared to take a hometown discount, then it’s hard to imagine Boras not getting him at least $18 million a year for five or six years, and aiming much higher, perhaps more than $20 million or more a year for seven.
When I talked to Scott in the fall, even before the Soriano and Wells contracts, he scoffed when I asked him if Andruw might command $18 million to $20 million or more annually.
The insinuation was that he’d be worth a hell of a lot more than that, and again, this was even before the market exploded after the new labor agreement and news that baseball is awash in cash and teams were making money hand-over-fist.
Do the Braves have a chance to re-sign him? I still think they do. Not a good chance, I’d guess, but a chance _ that is, if the payroll is increased from $80 mill to at least $90-95 mill. Otherwise, I can’t see how they’d want to tie up such a high percentage of team payroll in one guy for the next 5-7 years, not to mention a player who has a lot of wear and tear.
If they go to $95 million with the payroll, and they can give Andruw some kind of backloaded deal _ say, six years at $118 million, with escalating salaries of $15 mill, $17 mill, $18 mill, $20 mill, $20 mill and $20 mill, or a $10 mill signing bonus and about $2 mill less off each of those annual salaries, then maybe it’s doable.
But the Braves would have to decide whether Andruw’s improved conditioning and weight loss might help curtail the knee and back problems he’s had.
Let’s be clear: He has been extremely durable, playing hurt and never asking out of the lineup. He’s to be commended.
But all those diving catches have put a lot of wear on his shoulders and back, and the Braves have to at least consider the chance he could decline sooner than some others who didn’t break into the lineup at such a young age and haven’t already put in 10 full seasons _ plus all those playoff games _ before age 30.
What do you guys think? If the new owners raise payroll, do you make Andruw the No. 1 priority? Or do you think about how you might use that $20 million or so annually in several other areas, and consider going with a younger, cheaper center fielder?
You’re not going to match Andruw’s overall production, offensively or defensively, that’s for certain. But can you make it up elsewhere, at least the offensive part, and hope to get solid-if-not-nearly-as-spectacular defense from, say, Brandon Jones a year from now? He’s very athletic, has good power and defensive skills, and might be ready then, though probably needs a little more time in the minors to be safe.
Gregor Blanco could definitely play the position very well defensively, but has very little power (no homers all last season in Double-A and Triple-A). Still, he hits for a high average and had over a .400 OBP last season. He’s a completely different type of player than Andruw, but could be a solid leadoff man they’ve lacked since Furcal left.
So many things to consider. But bottom line, the Braves will probably have to see if Andruw is willing to at least take a slight hometown discount.
If he’s not, it’s going to be extremely difficult to fit him into the payroll, barring a huge adjustment to team payroll by the prospective new owners.
