Braves

By Head Coach

February 12, 2007 04:30 PM | Link to this

O’Brien , your one ballsy dude. I’m a life long Braves nut and I can’t pick the Braves to finish first because I really have no idea how this young team will perform. It’s really a mix of a few core veterans surrounded by youth and talent. We shall see , won’t we ?

By ssiscribe

February 12, 2007 04:35 PM | Link to this

Here ya go, DOB, a little breaking music news from the Scribe, via the wire:

LOS ANGELES, California (Reuters) — Reunited rock trio the Police said Monday they would launch a world tour in May, more than 20 years after frontman Sting angered his bandmates by leaving for a solo career.

The group whetted fans’ appetite for the expected trek on Sunday night, when they performed their breakthrough hit “Roxanne” at the opening of the Grammy Awards ceremony.

Sting, 55, guitarist Andy Summers, 64, and drummer Stewart Copeland, 54, will kick off the tour May 28 in Vancouver, British Columbia. (Watch the Police on stage )

Dates have so far been set for North America only; the band will play Europe in the autumn, and shows in Mexico, South America, Japan, Australia and New Zealand are also anticipated.

Ticket prices will range from $50 to $225, a spokesperson announced at a press conference at Los Angeles’ Whiskey A Go Go nightclub. The group also played a few songs for the assembled, including “Message in a Bottle,” “When the World Is Running Down, You Make the Best of What’s Still Around,” “Can’t Stand Losing You” and “Roxanne.”

The Police ended their seven-year run following their 1984 world tour for the album “Synchronicity,” which included the Grammy-winning song of the year “Every Breath You Take.”

By David O'Brien

February 12, 2007 04:46 PM | Link to this

Not exactly a surprise, huh, Scribe? I think I was off by $25 on the low end of the price range when I predicted yesterday. I figured tix would start at $75.

People, how many of you can remember when arena shows cost about $12-15?

By ssiscribe

February 12, 2007 04:54 PM | Link to this

Yeah, DOB, no shock there. You could see this coming from the moment they said they would “reunite” for the Grammys.

Not being too big into music, I don’t remember concert tickets. But I do remember $6 field-level tickets in the old stadium when I was a young tot.

Time to drive home. More on the season and attitude, et all, later.

Peace.

—30—

By T-bone

February 12, 2007 04:54 PM | Link to this

The key is the starting rotation, period. There are other question marks (second base, lead-off, left field, can Frenchy show some patience at the plate, first base), but none of those things will be a deal-breaker like the performance of the rotation.

DOB, I agree with you. Smoltz must be Smoltz and James must continue his good work from last year. Then the ifs begin. If Hudson can approach the Hudson of old and if Hampton can return to form, then this will be a rotation that can take us all the way to the series, I believe. [The 5th guy can come from Davies or Villareal or Cormier or a combination.] But if Hud continues his struggles and/or Hampton can’t return to form, then it’s a repeat of 2006.

JS has given us a strong bullpen and that could shorten games early in the season and shut the door on close games throughout the season. But we have to be able to get to them. We need to be leading or within striking distance by the 6th inning or we are in trouble.

Having said that, I feel good about 2007. I think that Hampton will return to form, at least by early June and will win us 13-15 games. And I think that Hud will at least be better than he has been, winning 10-15 games.

By Billy Squier

February 12, 2007 04:59 PM | Link to this

Stroke me, stroke me! (breakdown) stroke!

By Eugene

February 12, 2007 05:02 PM | Link to this

The true key is who will play left field and how many runs will we score. We still have a hole in our line up as large as Buckhead. And our bench could be a little stronger. I like out rotation and bullpen. But we have to be realistic. Chipper will go down and left field is still week. GO BRAVES!!!!!!!!!

By Jack In Macon

February 12, 2007 05:03 PM | Link to this

Dave, I’m with you. I know there are a lot of question marks about the Braves, but for some reason I just can’t shake the feeling that it’s all going to come together for the Braves this year. As soon as they got the lefty from Pittsburg, I got that feeling. The bullpen with take a tremendous amount of pressure off the starting staff, and give them the extra time they will need starting the first six to eight weeks of the season to get their sea legs.

By Don't drink and type

February 12, 2007 05:03 PM | Link to this

Is this one of of those Web logs? So, when I hit post, then I’ll be able to go back to the paper I bought this morning at QuickTrip and my comments will be there? Oh, I’m, sooo stupid. Uhhh, is this the Sun Sentinel?

By Robert

February 12, 2007 05:08 PM | Link to this

Spring is here. The smell of fresh straw on the floor. The site of all those carrots-on-sticks neatly lined up on the bench. The clompong of hooves on the dugout steps

Hope springs eternal

By October we will and (and smel) without the rose colored glasses. The site and stink of dried donkey s** on the floor. Hoof marks on the walls. Flies buzzing around the manager’s tail during the middle innings

By eric the elder

February 12, 2007 05:10 PM | Link to this

Last year, with Hudson so-so, Hampton out, Giles having an off year, Chipper out a lot, and no bullpen at all, we still could have won the wild card, if not the division, by not blowing 29 saves.

Now the pen has been fixed, Hampton is back, Hudson and Chipper get a new chance, and Kelly can’t be worse than Giles was. The question is whether the strong pen will overcome the loss of LaRoche. I think it will.

By Lew

February 12, 2007 05:13 PM | Link to this

DOB-Are you kidding? I paid $7.50 to sit up in the front section of the Omni for Little Feat/Traffic.

By Lew

February 12, 2007 05:17 PM | Link to this

I’d say the breakdown will take place sometime tonight. The identities are multiplying and the posts are becoming more manic and making less sense. It’s only a matter of time. The pattern is the same as on Christmas Eve. It may be too late for help.

By AJK

February 12, 2007 05:21 PM | Link to this

DOB:

I agree with you completely about being more jazzed for this season than in recent years. I’m a die-hard fan, never miss opening day, but I feel like we as fans have a bit of a chip on our shoulders about being discounted, just like the players. Those of us who have generally obnoxious friends in NY are even more motivated to see them eat their words.

I agree with you on the rankings for the season, though I think Philly and NY will battle it out, with the Bravos, til the end, and I don’t think the Marlins will be that close. Everything clicked for the Marlins last year, and they’re too young, with too weak a bullpen, to compete at that level. Watch out for them in another year or two…

By dougp

February 12, 2007 05:28 PM | Link to this

One of my first concerts was $15 to see Molly Hatchet (flirting with disaster tour)opening for Blue Oyster Cult and Black Sabbath. That, was $15 well spent. Although, I must admit the only thing I really remember was the price of the ticket, the bands and the fact it was at a speedway in Rockford, Il. The rest was just a blur, I think it had something to do with the air quality in the mustang we drove down there in. Good times.

By Les

February 12, 2007 05:45 PM | Link to this

I think the Mets rotation is so weak they may even drop to third behind the Phils. That’s who the Braves will be fighting for the division.

The mets will be in a lot of 10-9 games and won’t win all of htem.

By steve

February 12, 2007 05:47 PM | Link to this

Please take you music commentary (or whatever you deem it to be) somewhere else and stick to your writing on the Braves. Personnally I am sometimes skipping your column because of it - and I’m sure I am not the only one.

By Lew

February 12, 2007 05:52 PM | Link to this

How did we ever make it this far without people who don’t want to discuss music?

By Bryan

February 12, 2007 05:54 PM | Link to this

Dave, great song. I am down in the gulf coast rebuilding houses in Bay Saint Louis with AmeriCorps so that kind of music has been kicking in my iPod, like every day.

ssscribe - long time no see or have i been missing your post.

I am very excited for this year to start… lots of great stories including a real battle for 2nd and left… i really hope Langy holds down the position… and Matt hangs on to the bench or gets a starting job somewhere.

Also, some good competition for the last two bullpen spots…

Is James Jurries invited back to camp?

By Anthony

February 12, 2007 05:58 PM | Link to this

The Mets rotation looks so questionable on paper I’m tempted to agree with the guy who slotted them third in the division. Also, I’m worried about that offense more than most people. Am I the only one who remembers this offense from a couple of years ago that could be described as anemic at best? The one that Sheets struck out 20 and Johnson didn’t allow a base runner in one week? With Roche gone and Giles out of the picture and Francour’s lack of plate discipline I’m worried. Plus Thorman, Johnson, and whoever’ll play left field didn’t exactly rake last year.

By Brian

February 12, 2007 05:58 PM | Link to this

Starting off with the offense, I think we will be about as good as last year which is good enough. McCann might come back to earth a bit - .300 and 15 homers maybe- but I think that will be offset by Francouer improving with more patience. Thorman and Wilson can match the platoon from two years ago. Johnson can- at least- match Giles from last year, he was real impressive with his patience his rookie year when things didn’t fall into place. The Braves have always needed more hitters like that, especially in October. If Chipper is healthy and so is the outfield then enough said- Langerhans/Diaz would be the amongst the best 8th hitters in a lineup. The bullpen will be strong. I did all of this typing to agree that it will all come down to the starting rotation.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 12, 2007 05:59 PM | Link to this

I guess it would be silly to hope the Braves could steal Markakis from the Orioles for Cormier or Davies and a good prospect since the O’s need a starter now that Kris Benson is gone for the year? I am already hearing that Steve Traschel has the inside track on that spot.

By Jared

February 12, 2007 06:00 PM | Link to this

Admit it O’Brien, you’re “geeked up” for this season too.

By DonCoburleone

February 12, 2007 06:01 PM | Link to this

“There is infinitly more reason to have hope for James over Sosa. And I’m not full of sh!t. Here are some of the Posts…

Here’s one from almost a year ago Here’s one from May From the same blog.. I think this one can pretty much seals it up…posted in March of last year”

Okay, there may have been a few people who saw Sosa’s demise coming, but find me people who were clamoring for Chuck James to be called up and put in the starting rotation last year… And when I say that him and Sosa both came out of nowhere I mean it in the sense that; at the start of each season(Sosa in 2005, James in 2006) neither one were projected to even be in the starting rotation, yet each wound up at the end of the year the 2nd best pitcher on the staff (both of course second to Smoltz). Lets say Anthony Lerew ends up landing in the starting rotation this year in June, and finishes the season with 11 wins and is arguably our best pitcher behind Smoltz, would we not be able to say “he came out of nowhere?”

By ssiscribe

February 12, 2007 06:02 PM | Link to this

Bryan: Good to hear from you. I’d been in hibernation most of the winter, but really firing up the posting and blogging the past week, a trend that will only increase as we get into things. And all of us appreciate the work folks like you are doing down on the Gulf Coast. And finally, I don’t think Jurries is even on the 40-man anymore, is he DOB?

When do the daily blogs begin from the Evil Empire, aka Dark Star? Just curious.

More from the Scribe later. For now, Little Scribe, Baby Scribe and dinner await. Peace.

—30—

By Hizouse

February 12, 2007 06:03 PM | Link to this

DOB—Any chance that the backup plan at 1B is actually Chipper? Prior to signing Wilson I thought maybe the Braves were setting up a situation where if Thorman wasn’t working out, they could come to Chipper a month into the season and say, “look, we don’t have any real options at 1B, but we do have Aybar who can play 3B. please think about switching.”

By David O'Brien

February 12, 2007 06:06 PM | Link to this

Steve, we’ll take it under consideration.

Bryan, that’s admirable, you down there helping to rebuild. I’m impressed, sincerely. Oh, and Jurries wasn’t on the non-roster invitee list they sent out, so unless he’s a late add, he won’t be in camp.

By brian

February 12, 2007 06:08 PM | Link to this

great post DOB and I think you can tell from everyone here how fired up we all are for the new season. Hope Chipper and the gang are half as fired up as we are.

Back to the movies, NO, I do not think Old School is better than Animal House, I just meant to say that Old School made me laugh more than any movie recently. Old School was obviously inspired by the classic Animal House. A good bit of late high school and college life was and probably still is inspired by Animal House. When I rushed 17 years ago, I cannot tell you how many Eric Strattons I met, but they were all damn glad to meet me. Luckily I was not Flounder.

Speaking of that DOB - who on this board most resembles Flounder, Eric Stratton, etc or better yet, how would people cast the Braves in Animal House.

Mazzone would have been Dean Wormer.

By David O'Brien

February 12, 2007 06:09 PM | Link to this

Hizouse: No, I don’t see any chance of that scenario unfolding. You’ve got Thorman and Wilson, and then even Diaz all available to play 1B.

Steve, OK, we’ve considered. No.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 12, 2007 06:09 PM | Link to this

It would seem someone tinkled in Steve’s Cheerios this morning. Ouch!

By Jared

February 12, 2007 06:20 PM | Link to this

Are people ever going to accept that Chipper Jones is not moving to first base? Every year people suggest it, and every year Chipper is not at first base. It’s time to take a hint it’s not happening.

But we’ll be hearing about it again during the next offseason also.

By dcarp23

February 12, 2007 06:22 PM | Link to this

DOB-Noticed your comment about Jurries and non-roster invites. Do you think there are any non 40-man guys from in the system (i.e., not Bohn or Harris but rather guys like Will Startup) that have legit shots at making the big club out of spring training?

By Jack In Macon

February 12, 2007 06:27 PM | Link to this

We could greatly enhance our chances of going all the way if Schuerholz were to commit grand larceny again by putting together a package of say, Diaz or Langerhans, Villarreal (if necessary) and a top prospect to acquire Baldelli from Tampa Bay to play left field. I know the Braves brass needs to feel confident about their starting pitching before they would consider such a move, but hopefully they will see enough in spring training to reach that comfort level.

What will this do for us? It would be insurance if Andrew leaves next year, give us a great outfield, provide us with a leadoff hitter with speed and power, and take the pressure off Kelly Johnson learning a new position without having the additional responsibility of being the leadoff hitter. It would also give Cox the option of using Johnson in the number two hole where he may be more suitable with his bat control and patient swing.

By Brad in MT

February 12, 2007 06:32 PM | Link to this

DOB…I am with you 100%, a lot of people are going to pick against the Braves this year and I think that the extra motivation will be good for the team. With the bullpen as good as it is and the potential of the rotation I feel pretty good. I also think that the Mets rotation is so thin that they could be in serious trouble. I think that it will be close, but the Braves rotation could be especially strong by the end of the year and combined with the bullpen will be enough to take back the east! I for one am very excited for spring training this year, maybe more then ever…the only downer is TBS’s cutback of telecasts, but I’ll watch on MLB.tv or MLB Extra Innings if by some chance the deal with Direct TV doesn’t go through. Thanks for the blogs DOB, your doin a great job, no matter what some of these people on here say.

By David O'Brien

February 12, 2007 06:34 PM | Link to this

Dcarp, Bohn isn’t a non-roster invitee, he’s ON the 40-man roster.

Startup isn’t on the 40-man or the non-roster invitee list, so barring something unforseen, no, he won’t make team out of spring. It’s very rare that a guy does what Ken Ray did last year, make the team without even being invited to big league spring training as a non-roster invitee. Ray had a couple of dominant performances when brought over from minor league camp to fill out roster for a couple of split-squad games, that’s how he caught their attention. But again, that’s unusual.

By TennesseePaul

February 12, 2007 06:38 PM | Link to this

DonC: Actually, in one of those links from the other blog I said I’d like to see Davies and James get in there. James wasn’t slotted to be in the Rotation though. He was put in the pen initially. They took him out of the pen and sent him down to stretch out because they started seeing the weakness in the rotation. But I’ll give you this, if Lerew actually comes up midseason and becomes the second best pitcher in the rotation, he will have come out of no-where. Not because we haven’t seen him start, or relieve, or have no idea who he is, but because we’ve watched this guy tumble and fall from the top. Even then, if Lerew is in the rotation midseason, it’ll be due to injuries or other issues and I don’t want to see that happen. I’d like to see Lerew do well but this season might be a stretch. If the If’s fall into place, we shouldn’t see him until September.

By MBATL

February 12, 2007 06:38 PM | Link to this

So DonC, you generally dislike all 2nd year Braves pitchers, I take it. It’s the only rationale I can think of, as to why you’d be so down on a guy who was a minor league star, and won 11 games in half a year in his rookie year, and posted a top-notch 1.24 WHIP in doing so. What is your problem with James?

He may not get a batter out all year - who knows? - but there is just no logic in your distrust of him. The sum total of your criticism of James is that “Sosa stunk in his 2nd year here.” Huh?

By David O'Brien

February 12, 2007 06:42 PM | Link to this

Just heard Francoeur on local radio interview say that he doesn’t see any reason Braves can’t win 95 games this season.

I’d say that’s probably a bit ambitious, but of course you’d rather hear them say that than put out some modest, easily attained number.

By brian

February 12, 2007 06:48 PM | Link to this

Do you think that Jurries pouted too much for losing out to BJ last year and that the Braves do not want to reward him for his lackluster year at Richmond by inviting him to spring training this year?

By Doug

February 12, 2007 06:49 PM | Link to this

DOB,

I am right there with you! I think the Braves will finish on top this season. The bullpen will show itself to be unstoppable, and the starting rotation should be able to settle itself in a 6 inning game.

I am not too worried about the bats. Last year the Braves were 2nd in the batting department and we really only lost two bats this season … one who wasn’t producing fantastic numbers anyway. I think with Wilson working in a pinch position and Woodward being a true utility the bats and defense will work out just fine too.

The Braves will be starting a new streak this season. Now let’s just hope the new owners will provide some more room in the salary department to keep the team solid!

Go Braves!

By bruce

February 12, 2007 06:50 PM | Link to this

Dave, What is your opinion of Oscar’s contract? The incentives for starting and finishing do not seem to make sense to me for the projected role as long relief for the Braves. I am wondering if the incentives are a setup for a trade sometime mid to late spring training to a team looking for a starter. Did the incentive terms strike you as strange too? Thanks, Bruce

By David O'Brien

February 12, 2007 06:58 PM | Link to this

I’m picking them to win the NL East, but don’t think it’ll quite take 95 wins to do that.

This should be one of those years where East teams beat each other up and the division winner has 90 or so wins, like in 2005 (Braves 90-72) or 2001 (Braves 88-74). They won the East by two games both years.

By David O'Brien

February 12, 2007 07:04 PM | Link to this

Bruce, the incentives are just set up in such a way that he’ll get rewarded for starting or finishing games. Three “points” for each start, one “point” for each game finished, then if the total points add up to 30 he gets $25,000, if they add up to 39 he gets $50,000, etc, up to $100,000 max. No biggie, really, since the maximum is so low. I certainly wouldn’t read any trade-scenario speculation from that.

By DonCoburleone

February 12, 2007 07:07 PM | Link to this

So DonC, you generally dislike all 2nd year Braves pitchers, I take it. It’s the only rationale I can think of, as to why you’d be so down on a guy who was a minor league star, and won 11 games in half a year in his rookie year, and posted a top-notch 1.24 WHIP in doing so. What is your problem with James?

He may not get a batter out all year - who knows? - but there is just no logic in your distrust of him. The sum total of your criticism of James is that “Sosa stunk in his 2nd year here.” Huh?

First of all, I don’t have a problem with Chuck James. I love the guy, remember I’m the one who gave him the “I’m Chuck James B!atch” nickname last year? All I’m saying is that I am not as confident in Chuck James being our 2nd most reliable pitcher for the bulk of the season (as most of you seem to be). And I simply used Sosa as an example of what can happen to a pitcher coming off his first good year in the major leagues… That’s it, nothing personal or negative about James, just a concern of mine…

By Daybed Wagmoe

February 12, 2007 07:08 PM | Link to this

yeah, i’m really psyched for the season too. even the weather is taunting us — it was something like 60 today in athens, and in the middle of february. i’m extremely excited for the season to start, and it’s the excitement knowing that our team is going to be good this year with our revamped bullpen.

hizouse - i know you asked DOB, and not me, about chipper being the backup 1B, but i’ll share a very intelligent point that mark bowman presented a few weeks ago:

with chipper’s troublesome feet, first base would actually be harder for him to play than third base. at first, he would have to: a) run over to the bag every time there’s a grounder, b) hold runners on, then push off first base when the pitch is thrown. there are more things he’d have to do too, and i would imagine that his responsibilities on bunt plays would change very much. it seems that a 1B would have more foot traffic than a 3B. so, there’s my two cents that you didn’t ask for. ;)

DOB — do you think you could set up the blog so that people’s names are more noticeable when scrolling through it? perhaps they’re underlined, or in bold (not blue bold, of course)? also, the arcade fire are playing the atlanta civic center on may 1st. so what if they’re playing philadelphia that night.

bryan - how’s it going mang?

By David O'Brien

February 12, 2007 07:09 PM | Link to this

By the way, Bruce, he’d have to make 20 starts just to get the $100,000 (or, say, 15 starts and 15 games finished). Just not very significant money in the big picture.

By David O'Brien

February 12, 2007 07:17 PM | Link to this

Daybed, you sure it’s the Atlanta Civic Center? Haven’t heard of any alt-rock shows being held there before.

Good to know they’re playing here. Thatt’s right after a 10-day road trip, so I’m probably going to be off.

By bobbymahlon

February 12, 2007 07:20 PM | Link to this

DOB: Wasn’t Jurries’s horrible 2006 due to injuries ? Like somebody else I would like to know is he going to get invited to spring training. Remember he was our top hitter last year in spring training and much to my surprise he was sent down in favor of Brian Jordan.

By bruce

February 12, 2007 07:23 PM | Link to this

Dave, I was not thinking so much about the amount of money, but more the nature of the incentives… starting and finishing rather than say appearances. I could see him finishing games that we are going to lose and we just need innings out of him, but not thinking of any other finishing scenarios. I guess he could get some starts as fifth starter or if double headers pile up… his terms just do not seem to be targeted for his projected role. Thanks, Bruce

By Daybed Wagmoe

February 12, 2007 07:34 PM | Link to this

DOB, yup, that’s the word, according to arcadefire.net. it says 05/01 Atlanta, GA - Civic Center, so unless there’s a different civic center…

interesting to hear that you’re confident smoltz will stay with atlanta. are you basing that on anything you’ve heard/seen? or is it more speculation? it seems that it would be hard for them to keep both smoltz and andruw, especially with hudson’s salary spiking up. (regardless of what hudson’s market value is, $13 million is still a big chunk of the budget.) thanks

By Alan

February 12, 2007 07:35 PM | Link to this

Yes, DOB, I am more excited this spring than I’ve been in a long time, and I’ve been a Braves fan a lllooonnnggg time. So excited, in fact, that I’m going to be in Dark Star next month after all. The first day Spring Training tix went on sale, I ordered 2 for the Blue Jays game on March 10 - Section 113, Row M - right behind home plate. Can hardly wait. Also, I love your prediction and I want to agree with you, but so much does depend on the starting pitching. I believe Smoltz will be Smoltz (which is to say very good) and James will show he’s the real thing. The keys, without doubt, are Hudson and Hampton. If they can win 25-30 games between them, the Braves will be in terrific shape. See you in Lake Buena Vista!

By The Grinch

February 12, 2007 07:36 PM | Link to this

DOB, back when I used to live in Atlanta the last time in the early 90’s, there were rock concerts at the Civic Center all the time. I probably saw 15-20 shows there. I recall it being a bit sterile, but adequate. In fact, one of the best shows I ever saw was there: Slayer, Motorhead and Overkill back in ‘88. Probably not your cup of tea, but it jammed nonetheless. BTW, sorry about the link yesterday. If you get a chance, go to www.onion.com, click “onion sports,” and click the headline that’s something like “Pirates’ manager suddenly realizes it’s spring training.” It’s pretty humerous.

By Alan

February 12, 2007 07:38 PM | Link to this

DOB, I almost forgot. Have a good, safe trip to Dark Star.

By Jared

February 12, 2007 07:55 PM | Link to this

The Wall Street Journal says that Liberty Media has finalized a deal with Time Warner to obtain the Atlanta Braves. Is this true? What’s the story?

By KC

February 12, 2007 07:56 PM | Link to this

DOB: “Just heard Francoeur on local radio interview say that he doesn’t see any reason Braves can’t win 95 games this season.”

“I’d say that’s probably a bit ambitious, but of course you’d rather hear them say that than put out some modest, easily attained number.”

Ambitious? Maybe so. But not unlikely. I don’t think that win total could be called either likely or unlikely. I think we all agree… it comes down to what the Braves get out of Hampton and Hudson.

If Hudson can post an ERA in the mid-3.00 range or lower this season, he’ll win between 15-20 games with this bullpen and offense to support him. And if Hampton posts, say… an ERA between 4.00-4.50 in the first half (there is going to be a re-acclimation period… we have to count on that), and then brings it down in the mid-3.00 range over the second half of the season… this rotation should be in great shape. I don’t think either of those scenarios are in any way unreasonable, and if things fall into place at least that well for those two guys… there’s no reason the Braves can’t hit that 95 win mark Frenchy mentioned.

By The Grinch

February 12, 2007 08:04 PM | Link to this

So, KC; break the starting rotation down for us pitcher by pitcher (especially Hampton and Hudson). I’d be curious to hear what you think is going to happen and why. :-)

By True Braves Fan

February 12, 2007 08:05 PM | Link to this

I am definitely not a music fan, but I can certainly skip over the music talk, and read only the baseball comments in which I am interested. Keep up the good blogs DOB.

By JasonInMaine

February 12, 2007 08:22 PM | Link to this

I found the following section of a Boston.com article interesting:

“Here’s an overlooked reason the Sox are excited to have J.D. Drew. Last season, by one defensive metric that employs a plus-minus number, the Sox ranked last in the majors at minus-69, which in broad terms means they allowed 69 balls to fall for hits that average outfielders would have caught. The next-worst team was the Phillies (-48), while the Braves were best at plus-63.”

Regards,

Jason

By brian

February 12, 2007 08:50 PM | Link to this

did anyone else read the espn.com article on the sale of the braves. TWC sell the Braves, magazines, and $1 billion dollars for stock valued at $1.27 billion. So the Braves are worth less than $270 million unless the magazines are negative value?

TWC must have been desparate to get rid of the Braves. More corporate ownership. Whoopie!

By Stinky

February 12, 2007 09:00 PM | Link to this

Boo!

By Sonny

February 12, 2007 09:12 PM | Link to this

I just hope Thorman works out and 1B and we can get 2B situated. PLEASE GOD NO ORR!!! What did that guy bat last year, 215? He’s a utility player and always will be…not that there’s anything wrong with that.

Also Hudson needs to start earning that paycheck to say the least! If he doesn’t this year, I think it’s because his skills just aren’t there anymore. Unfortunately if that’s the case, JS’s crystal ball must of been out-of-order when he signed him and Hampton for that matter. Two former dominant players who came to the Braves to…

Go Bravos!!!

By Stinky

February 12, 2007 09:40 PM | Link to this

When Stinky gets ornery, DOBRA cowers. What a coward.

By Stinky

February 12, 2007 10:22 PM | Link to this

This is so romantical. I hope all of you out there understand where the original poster of these wonderful, soul stroking lyrics is coming from. Thank heavens for Lucinda Williams.

LAKE CHARLES” by Lucinda Williams

He had a reason to get back to Lake Charles

He used to talk about it/He’d just go on and on

He always said Louisana/Was where he felt at home

He was born in Nacogdoches

That’s in East Texas/Not far from the border

But he liked to tell everybody/He was from Lake Charles

Did an angel whisper in your ear

And hold you close and take away your fear

In those long last moments

We used to drive/Thru Lafayette and Baton Rouge

In a yellow El Camino/Listening to Howling Wolf

He liked to stop in Lake Charles/Cause that’s the place that he loved

Did you run about as far as you could go

Down the Lousiana highway/Across Lake Pontchartrain

Now your soul is in Lake Charles/No matter what they say

Did an angel whisper in your ear

And hold you close and take away your fear

In those long last moments

He had a reason to get back to Lake Charles

He used to talk about it/He’d just go on and on

He always said Louisana/Was where he felt at home

Did an angel whisper in your ear

And hold you close and take away your fear

In those long last moments

Did an angel whisper in your ear

And hold you close and take away your fear

In those long last moments

By Kieran, Long Island Brave Fan

February 12, 2007 10:24 PM | Link to this

Just read the DeadlJournalist.com interview, good stuff.

Now I know that everyone in the Braves camp has been very quick to defend Roger McDowell, which is expected from someone who has had to endure the burden of replacing a rare Hall of Fame Pitching coach. And I want to make it known that the point of this is NOT to get down on Roger McDowell. I was just curious if you could sense how much room he has to breathe, as far as his Job Security. If the Pitching staff has a year like last year or worse are they likely to let him go? Is he on a three-year-plan? The Braves are very supportive of their personal so its hard to tell, and since I’ve been a Brave fan (1992) I dont really recall them every Firing anyone significant (Except Jorge Sosa). I know they all give you the line, Roger isnt going anywhere, or Roger’s our guy, but what do you think?

PS The darkside of me wants to cheer against Oscar just so I can call him “Oscar VillarealHitable”

Also the Chargers have Fired Marty just as the last job opening filled up in Dallas. 14-2? What a disgrace. They should turn off the talkradio in San Diego and be ashamed of themselves.

By Stinky

February 12, 2007 10:32 PM | Link to this

Hey, those previous posts weren’t made by me, must be a Stinky imposter, or that creep jimmy smith. For the posts that I did make I’m sorry, I repent, won’t happen again. I’ve seen the light, I’m changing my ways. I want to be a nice blogger like Lew and all my other friends. Please, can someone help me, anyone? I don’t want the humiliation like that Christmas meltdown, or the wrath of another DOB beatdown. Please, someone do an intervention and help my retarded a%$. I know I can never be as loved as journalist jimmy—but damnit I tried!!!!!!

By Lew

February 12, 2007 10:33 PM | Link to this

Now Stinky-You know the only reason anyone is cowering in fear is because they’re concerned with who you might hurt when you have your psychotic break. You really do need help. I know no one loves you, but I’m sure there’s someone at the local Help Line that would be willing to talk.

By geauxbraves2000

February 12, 2007 10:34 PM | Link to this

Braves finish 162-0.

Oh, sorry, lost my head for just a second.

Geaux Braves!!

By Sir Stealth

February 12, 2007 10:39 PM | Link to this

From nailing the best Steve Earle song to nailing the best Lucinda Williams song - very well done DOB.

As for the Braves, everything went wrong last year - just about a hundred percent of the question marks except for McCann, not to mention bad breaks in game after game. Surely some of the question marks that have potential to turn into strengths will bounce the right way this year.

By FlimFlamMan

February 12, 2007 10:40 PM | Link to this

So if Sam Perlozzo loses his job as manager of the Orioles then what becomes of pitching coach Leo Mazzone who supposedly left the Braves so he could rock beside his buddy in Baltimore?

By TennesseePaul

February 12, 2007 10:43 PM | Link to this

Sweet. Braves Deal is much closer to being done. No, the Braves aren’t worth 250 million. The Value of this deal is done in such a way that zero taxes would be paid on it. This would bring the value of the club to somewhere around 450 million or so. You don’t see it in dollars because it’s burried in what they don’t pay. They forked over assets and stocks. So they could have tons of cash to spend on securing franchise players. Something which is good for the value of the team. Even if you’re losing you can still bring in money through brand recognition and aging sluggers chasing historical landmarks. See the Braves circa 1935… Liberty has to own the team for several years before they can sale it again. Keeping the brand name up improves the value of the team and therefore could turn them a profit. The fact that Liberty must maintain this team for several years before a resale means they couldn’t sale off parts… so it’d be in their best interest to keep a good product together. And hopefully raise payroll to boot.

By FlimFlamMan

February 12, 2007 10:51 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul—have you got anymore of whatever that is you’re smokin’?

By KC

February 12, 2007 10:57 PM | Link to this

Well there are only two posibilities:

1 - the payroll stays the same.

2 - the payroll goes up.

Hey… at least now there’s a chance.

By akirell

February 12, 2007 10:57 PM | Link to this

DOB,

Any thoughts on the sale? Does this mean even more positive thoughts about the Braves’ future…or does it mean more absurd budget constraints?

By TennesseePaul

February 12, 2007 11:00 PM | Link to this

FlimFlamMan: Used it all up.

DOB: Just read your DeadJournalist.com interview. I’m glad to see that you listed the Cold War Kids in there. Hospital Beds is a pretty fresh song. If you get a chance, you should check their live show out. It’s pretty raw, fun, and just good times.

By Ron

February 12, 2007 11:11 PM | Link to this

DOB, what you think about the Braves being sold. Do you think that it is just a tax off and they will not spend much money on the Braves or do you think that in the coming years the Braves payroll will be the same, or increase some? I know you cant tell me for sure, but what would be your guess?

By brian

February 12, 2007 11:12 PM | Link to this

glad I am not an accountant. This sale is way to complicated to understand.

That being said, I hope Liberty Media jumps on board with 2 feet in and decides it wants a winner to boost the Braves value even more. Hopefully they will fall in love with the Braves and help build them back up from where TWC tried to pull them down

By David O'Brien

February 12, 2007 11:13 PM | Link to this

Thank heavens for Lucinda, indeed. Just listened to the new album, which the fellas at EllaGuru got in a day early. Outstanding stuff. Her best since Car Wheels on a Gravel Road, for sure….

OK, “24” got better tonight. The last couple episodes, I was kinda waiting for it to grab me. Tonight’s two episodes did. Definite step up….

San Diego firing Marty S. today a bit odd, huh? Figured if they were gonna fire him, it sure would’ve been in the week after the playoff loss. Strange….

Which reminds me, I’m sitting in my dentist’s chair this morning. He’s a Duke grad, and he’s sitting their complaining about the Blue Devils’ slide and about Coach K. Yes, complaining about Coach K.

He was talking about how many big games the Dookies should’ve won, etc., and I’m just sitting there incredulous. Got me to thinking how it really doesn’t matter how good your coach is, if it’s your team, or your alma mater or whatever, the grass is going to look greener for a lot of fans once the team slides for a year or two.

He says at the end of his rant, “I think Coach K’s got security.” And I was like, Uh, yeah. I think he’s probably got more security than any coach of any major sport in America. Not many teams are playing on a court named for their court.

Would be kinda awkward firing him, then having the next guy coach the team on “Coach K Court.”

By Ron

February 12, 2007 11:15 PM | Link to this

KC, you said the payroll would stay the same or go up, I hope one of the two would happen, but Liberty Media may lower the budget in the coming years, you never know, hope not.

By David O'Brien

February 12, 2007 11:17 PM | Link to this

By the way, for those wondering, as I’ve said before, and as indicated by quotes Terry McGuirk gave me right after the season ended, I really don’t think we’re going to see anything whatsoever different about the Braves in the immediate aftermath of the sale when it’s completed.

Front office will stay the same, manager, GM, etc, stays the same for at least this season. But down the line, maybe late in the season but more likely next offseason, that’s when we could see a possible payroll change, and I’d lean toward it being a payroll increase, after the new owners have time to see the fan turnout, see how the team does, get advice from whomever they’re going to turn to for such advice, etc.

But for now, for this season, I don’t think the on-field product or the ballpark experience is going to change, other than changes already made for the coming season to whatever aspects of the game-day thing they’ve tweaked here and there.

By David O'Brien

February 12, 2007 11:19 PM | Link to this

TennPaul, that’s a damn good band, the Cold War Kids. Really strong CD, especially being their debut and all (at least I think it’s their debut).

By mariner

February 12, 2007 11:22 PM | Link to this

I like the Liberty Media deal. John Malone is going big into baseball and I think that’s positive for the Braves. In addition to the Braves, the cash, and the magazines from TW, he’s getting regional sports networks in Seattle, Denver, and Pittsburgh. Plus, in another tax advantaged deal with News Corp reached in December, he’s exchanging shares in News Corp for a 38% stake in Direc TV, making Liberty the largest shareholder. And Direct TV is on the verge of getting the new baseball deal, which may be negative for some fans, but I think indirectly positive for the Braves - more revenue for Liberty to trickle down to the Braves. Malone is on the verge of making two windfall deals, he’s focusing his business more on sports, he’s keeping the Braves management, and he’ll own the team for several years before he sells, if he sells. I think he’ll do right by the Braves, and I’m optimistic that he’ll raise payroll, maybe this year at the trade deadline. One thing I haven’t read in these stories about the sale is the disposition of Turner Field. I assume it’s part of the deal, but not sure. I wouldn’t mind seeing Malone sell the naming rights. Every little bit helps.

By David O'Brien

February 12, 2007 11:33 PM | Link to this

Mariner, interesting perspective and good points. I hope, for the Braves’ sake, that you’re right. I’ve heard mixed reviews of the new ownership group. But I’ll reserve judgment until I actually hear them say something about their intentions, etc.

So far, it’s just speculation from everyone. The only thing I’ve heard that I believe, because McGuirk has been sort of the bridge between ownership groups and is supposed to be staying on by all accounts (in part because MLB wants it that way, to assure it’s smooth transition and such, but also because I think the new group realizes he knows the inner workings of the franchise and how to run it)…. Anyway, lost my train of thought…. Oh, yeah, only thing I’ve heard that sounds fairly certain is that the new group plans no major changes in the immediate future after finally taking over.

And with season starting, I can’t imagine they’d do anything that disrupts the team in any way. Just don’t think anything will be different, but maybe _ maybe _ the new group would be more inclined to spend $5-10 million in July if Braves need to fill a hole for stretch drive.

We’ll see. At least there’s hope that could happen.

By mariner

February 12, 2007 11:42 PM | Link to this

And one other thing, DOB, I’m stoked for the season. It’s going to be a dogfight all season long, but I think the Braves will be back in the playoffs, and will be able to do some damage when they get there. Thanks in advance for all the spring training updates.

By Spike

February 12, 2007 11:43 PM | Link to this

DOB Any ideas what the Mets rotation will look like? They gave Sosa a million plus and just signed Chan Ho Park and it looks to me that if Pelfrey and Humber don’t make giant strides they are definitely hurting for starting pitching.

By braveheart

February 12, 2007 11:52 PM | Link to this

i like your assessments of the braves chances DOB. the mets have a ragtag rotation. their luck with pitching last year will not continue and their fantastic four of reyes, wright, delgado, and beltran will not be enough to offset the shaky rotation. as for the phils, that bandbox is just crippling no matter how many quality arms they bring in there.

By braveheart

February 12, 2007 11:59 PM | Link to this

i would prefer if the braves did not use any extra $5 - $10 million for a deadline trade if they are given that by new ownership. i would much rather they use that money to sign druw. but of course, signing druw to that money will not be just a $5 to $10 mil extra commitment this year but will turn into an extra $25 mil to $100 mil commitment to druw over the next 5 to 10 years if darn boras has his way. so, oh well. there goes my idea.

By Sir Stealth

February 13, 2007 12:03 AM | Link to this

Coach K is obviously a coaching genius, but I think he has had a couple teams lately (and its probably impossible to do it every season) where he did not quite figure out how to make the most out of the talent at hand. Obviously to talk about wanting anyone else as the coach is ridiculous, but Duke fans can wish that maybe he’ll come up with some revelations. In the mean time, Duke fans should hope he doesn’t get too p** at any grumblings.

I have nothing but the highest hopes for the Braves this year. Tons of optimism. I’m not thrilled about another corporate owner but would love to hand them a brand new World Series Championship.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 13, 2007 12:06 AM | Link to this

DOB, you’re probably right, but I kind of hope your wrong. It would be nice if the new owners came in right off the bat and told JS he had an extra $10 or $15 mil to play with. Man, how would that change.

I wonder if JS knows something we don’t. He has seemed very confident that the Braves can resign Andruw. I don’t think he is becoming senile so perhaps he had some idea that this deal was close to getting done and that the new ownership is guaranteeing Andruw will stay.

I know this. If I’m JS, I am already on the phone with Liberty asking if they are going to do what it takes to extend Andruw or not.

By MEB

February 13, 2007 12:21 AM | Link to this

162-0 is a little too optimistic because I think we’ll lose a couple of close ones on the road.

DOB.. sounds like you may have started the ultimate internet rumor about Couch K on a short leash at Duke. Geeezz… coaching at the major college level is tough!

GO BRAVES!!!

By flbravesgirl

February 13, 2007 12:22 AM | Link to this

At least the sale is moving forward now. Don’t know if Liberty will be any better than TW but I can’t imagine them being worse. Even if they don’t care about the Braves and plan on selling the team as soon as they’re allowed to, I assume that they’ll want to keep the value up and increase their profits on the resale. I won’t hold my breath but a reasonable increase in payroll next year sure would be nice. Say… enough to sign Andruw & Smoltz? Maybe I should start shipping Red Velvet cakes to Mr. Malone. DOB, glad to hear that you think Smoltz will stay. The column on the Braves’ site made sound as if he expected to be elsewhere next year.

By TennesseePaul

February 13, 2007 12:26 AM | Link to this

DOB: Yes. First nation wide release. I have all their little EPs they released over the past year or two before they exploded. I know those guys. Glad to hear you like it. They and Fielding were sort-of Long Beach rivals. Not that they went at each others throat, but from the same hood and all… Fielding split up over Christmas though so it looks like the stage is all Cold War Kids. CWK has a more robust sound than fielding, so I could see them taking off if they can keep kicking out good songs.

By Bronx Brave

February 13, 2007 12:27 AM | Link to this

I hope I’m wrong, but I’m stunned to see people talking about the Braves winning 95 games and the division this year. Hope springs eternal, but I think we should take a step back and try to make an honest assessment here. Apart from our bullpen — which appears to be better by leaps and bounds — we have only detracted from a team that finished in third place and four games under .500 last year.

I am extremely worried about the starting pitching. Smoltz is a known commodity, but there’s no one else in the Braves five-man rotation that inspires confidence.

Hudson has clearly been in decline since he came to the Braves, but we see these articles saying he’s been working out really hard for three months, so this year’s going to be better. We all breathe a sigh of relief and rest assured that Huddy’s back in the groove. Again, I hope I’m wrong, but if all it takes to regain his form is three months of conditioning, the Braves coaches and front office have a lot of explaining to do.

Mike Hampton is coming back from Tommy John surgery — Tommy freakin’ John surgery! The man hasn’t pitched in mlb game in something like a year and a half. When he started pitching this fall, he “felt something pop.” The Braves were “relieved” to find out it was “only scar tissue.” Whew! That popping sound was only scar tissue — in that case, I’m pretty sure we can count on Hampton to win 15 games. C’mon! Hampton’s going to struggle mightily this year, just like everyone does their first year back from reconstructive surgery — that is, if he doesn’t get re-injured first.

Chuck James was amazing last year, and I think he’s going to be good for many years to come. I love that he pitches to spots, that he changes speeds. He’s a crafty and talented young pitcher. Here’s my only point about him: I don’t think he’s going to duplicate the season he had last year. I think hitters in this league are going to fare better against him in his second year. I think he’s still going to be pretty good — just not as good — and I think there’s going to be a lot more pressure on him to pick up the slack from Hudson and Hampton.

Finally, there’s Kyle Davies. Billed as the second coming in recent years, he hasn’t exactly lived up to the hype, and I get the feeling this winter that the Braves wouldn’t have hesitated to let him walk. To put it mildly, I don’t think the Braves are exactly sold on him as the fifth starter. If not him, who else do you trot out there every fifth day? Oscar Villareal? Lance Cormier? Please!

Add to that the fact that the lineup is missing two of its most potent bats over the past couple of years — Giles and LaRoche — and replaced them with, well, nobody. Don’t get me wrong, I think the LaRoche trade was a good one, and I think Thorman is going to be a good hitter in the future, but I don’t think he’s going to come close to matching LaRoche’s productivity this year, nor is Kelly Johnson — also missing from action for a full year — going to magically succeed in the leadoff spot where Marcus Giles did not. I also think he’s going to be pretty good, but he’s not ready yet.

On the plus side, I think we can expect improvement from Francoeur, and the same steady production from McCann. Andruw will continue to do what Andruw does, and we’ll see Chipper continue to hit well when he’s not battling injuries, which isn’t often.

The Mets’ have an incredible batting order, and an awful rotation, but their hitters will keep them around the top of the division until the all-star break, when they’ll make a trade for a topline starter and get Pedro back. They’ll win the division handily.

The Phillies will finish second. They have the best rotation in the East, a better than average lineup, and they’ll finish in second.

The Braves will battle the Marlins for third place in the division, followed up by the Nationals.

I think the team will better their record from last year, but not by a whole lot. I think finishing 5 games over .500 would be a good bet.

By TennesseePaul

February 13, 2007 12:29 AM | Link to this

You know, if Liberty can retain Smoltz and AJ as well as making it easier for JS to retain himself, Cox and all these youngsters, I’ll be in heaven. But the real dream… Liberty makes it so AJ, Smoltz, McCann Francoeur all stay, while bolstering the pitching staff by adding Johann Santana and Mariano Rivera next offseason. Now that would be truly wonderful.

Where’s my bottle opener.

By Brad in MT

February 13, 2007 12:35 AM | Link to this

It should be interesting to see how Liberty runs the team. I don’t think they could be much worse than Time Warner has been, and I don’t think that MLB would approve the sale if things were going to get any worse. Hopefully they will increase the payroll and let Terry, JS, and Bobby do their thing.

By braveheart

February 13, 2007 12:50 AM | Link to this

i am really excited about this new season (wish betemit was still here though for no other reason than he was my fave of the new homegrowns from the last few years).

as for frenchy’s plate discipline, i compare him to guys like nomar, vlad, and alfonso soriano. all of them have similar swings and plate approaches (all free swinging bad ball hitters with long swings). this may be somewhat sacriligeous to say but for some reason frenchy’s swing style sometimes reminds me in its appearance of joe dimaggio. when i glimpse the occasional old clips, there is something very similar in their swings, especially when they are both pulling the ball. joe d. of course never struck out anywhere near as much as frenchy but he also never walked much more than frenchy either. compare the swings:

dimaggio’s swing at 1:34 and 1:59: http://youtube.com/watch?v=1gDL2eb1n3A

it may take frenchy several years to get lots of walks if he ever does. here are soriano’s walk totals since 2001: 29, 23, 38, 33, 33, 67 (fear factor and playing on a bad team with no protection may have been a big factor in the doubling of the walk totals).

nomar has never really improved his walk totals, he only averages about 47 walks for every 162 played.

vlads walk totals have usually only been in the 50s or 60s. in vlad’s rookie season, vlad had 19 walks in 90 games. frenchy had 11 walks in 70 games as a rookie. vlad had 42 walks in 159 games his second season. frenchy had only 23 walks in 162 his second year. obviously vlad was much better earlier in his career overall than frenchy has been for reasons other than just mere walks. as for the walk totals though, vlad had no protection in that 1998 season (thus more, more pitching around him thus more BBs). see http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MON/1998.shtml

frenchy on the other hand batted sixth last year in the most potent lineup in the league, usually with laroche or mccann hitting behind him and usally with many baserunners in front of him (thus frenchy had to be pitched to to a certain degree in a way vlad did not earlier in his career).

vlad then walked 55 times in his third year. will frenchy increase his walk totals in his third year? hopefully and probably. he will not have laroche or mccann hitting behind him this season. presumably, the lineup will be johnson, edgar, chipper, druw, mccann, frenchy, thorman/wilson, wilson/langerhans/diaz behind him. thus pitchers are going to probably pitch around him much more because they are not going to be afraid of thorman, wilson, langerhans, or diaz until those guys hopefully make the opponents afraid. thus it will be imperative for frenchy to be more patient. if he is not, this could be a nightmare season for him. i would not be surprised if he is still too free swinging if bobby has to move him up to fifth and drop mccann down to sixth just so that frenchy will get better pitches somewhat more closer to the strike zone to hack away at.

By FlimFlamMan

February 13, 2007 01:04 AM | Link to this

Guess it doesn’t do much good to ask a question on this baseball blog—unless it’s musically oriented.

By TennesseePaul

February 13, 2007 01:16 AM | Link to this

Bronx Brave: I’ll leave KC to get back to you on the pitching. It’s his favorite subject. But as for Giles replacement? C’mon! That shouldn’t be too hard to do. The guy played in 141 games and hit .262. He did even worse in the leadoff spot. I think it’s safe to assume we will at least get that level of production from whoever replaces him. LaRoche will be a different matter. But whatever the case our offense was strong last season. Even a slight drop shouldn’t be that bad. As long as it’s consistant.

I will say this about the pitching… compare going into 2006 and going into 2007. It just looks better, even with the question marks. Last year we were banking on Jorge Sosa as our #3 starter. Thomson was injured already. It was bleak. Nearly anything would be better than what we had going into last season.

By Head Coach

February 13, 2007 01:19 AM | Link to this

Reading all the previous post’s concerning the pitching I can agree , the rotation has to prove itself. I disagree with the assessment of Chuck James. This kid is the rare exception. His 0.95 WHIP during four minor league seasons should have been a clue before the 2006 season was even played. James has an 88-90 mile an hour fastball and an outstanding change up , only two pitches. Yet….. he keeps getting people out. Why ? He has the most compact deceptive delivery you will ever see. Or won’t see , which is why he has been so successful. MLB hitters can’t pick up the ball coming out of his hand , it almost looks like it’s coming out of his shirt pocket. He has a bulldog like tenacity and gets ahead of batters by throwing strikes with the ability to spot his fastball on the corners. He does have a tendency to give up the homerun when he gets behind in the count. His record : 11-4 3.68 ERA in 124.2 innings with a 1.24 WHIP in Atlanta. 26-13 / 2.09 ERA / 378.1 innings 0.95 WHIP in four minor league seasons. This kid is a winner and barring injury , he will pick up where he left off last season and keep on winning.

By Lew

February 13, 2007 01:24 AM | Link to this

Well, I usually don’t like to tempt fate, but can Liberty really be any worse than TW?

By Reality Check

February 13, 2007 01:30 AM | Link to this

“Metal Firecracker” is the best song on “Car Wheels.”

DOB, I used to think you were strong. I used to think you were proud.

I used to think nothing could go wrong.

By braveheart

February 13, 2007 02:07 AM | Link to this

why are there people crying about the musical discussion? howard stern always said (back when i still listened to the guy) that if you do not like me or what I am saying, then change the station. hence, why he never understood the FCC complaints because if you found him offensive, why were you listening to him so that you could find yourself offended and then make trouble for him and his audience?

same applies here (sort of). if you do not like the music talk, then skim past those sections and look at the baseball talk. there is no need to change the station here though, just use your mouse as a fast forward button through the music talk - it will save you the trouble and time from reading the hundreds of posts every time DOB provides us an article. it does not seem to be turning off alot of folks considering that DOB gets hundreds of posts every time he writes something on here.

admittedly, i am not always a big fan of the music disucssion myself but i have come to appreciate it because i have over 4000 songs on my IPOD and often still feel like I have nothing to listen to because it all tends to be 4000 very popular songs from all genres that you have heard all too often for the last 40 years or lesser known acts whose albums i have listened to too much since i was about 15 years old.

so, it is cool to hear DOB talk so much about lesser known bands and such, because i can go to itunes and test them out. if i think i might like it, i will buy it for a buck and download. it has made me like my ipod much more and not make me feel like i have wasted all of my money on an IPOD that merely contains thousands of songs from hundreds of my cds that i was already very sick of listening to before i even bought my ipod.

so, i actually appreciate being exposed to different acts and genres of music that i have not otherwise been exposed to.

it is the offseason as well so he should have more free time to engage with his audience about music, movies, and pop culture. how often do you expect DOB to answer yet again the questions about 2B, LF, 1B, the fifth starter, cormier, davies, leadoff, et al? he makes a valiant effort most days answering things he has already answered many times already but really the answers he has provided us since early november have not changed - there have not been any games played yet where performance would dictate changes in opinion and fact for DOB. So, there goes.

By Spike

February 13, 2007 02:47 AM | Link to this

Bronx Brave I’ll weigh in on the pitching. Last year the Braves released Jorge Sosa. This year the Mets gave him a million plus and actually NEED him. Mike Hampton is coming off Tommy John surgery and will be watched closely, but the scar tissue popping is a hurdle that all reconstuction surgery pitchers go thru and no one knows when it will happen, but they all know it will and are happy when its behind them. I think Hampton is .500 until the break and money down the stretch. If you take the Braves starting rotation and bullpen and match them up with your Mets, no contest. Do I think the Braves starters are a given? No, but I think the Braves are a beter TEAM than they were last year and if the starters are as good as last year and the bullpen lives up to the hype, then its Braves winning the division and the Mets and Phillies are looking up. Lots of if’s…but I like our chances more than yours. Just my opinion.

By doc

February 13, 2007 07:44 AM | Link to this

boy, dob i dont know if you are a homer or maybe it just shows how weak baseball has gotten but to place these braves better than third is a push. i hope with the best of them but there are so many question marks that are huge and legit it is just a crap shoot this year. your excellent article shows how much of a push it will be from sundays paper. there are very few non-questions, only at catcher, ss, rf and cf, everything else is suspect even the bullpen that has as its cornerstone a very old closer and two guys that finished on the dl. even if they are ready you have to think back to smoltz’ desire to come out of the bullpen because they were always behind in the playoffs and he wasnt of use. the perfect situation could be in play here that leads to the pennant but the perfect storm could be here that also looks real ugly like last year’s june that lasts the greater part of the season if the bats dont hit consistantly, chipper goes down early and the starters look more like soft pitch than major league; pen doesnt work in that situation. the braves have toyed with what happened last season for several years and came through on some unbelievable streaks and ultimately overcame very poor organizations in the east but those days are gone as the east is a lot tougher than the central for sure and probably the west nwo that there is competency in the front offfices of the mets, phillies and in washington now solvent and able to do more than be a very pesky farm team. after last year the marlins cant be overlooked, they have a lot more to be optimistic about in its pitching staff and young talent than the braves do..

By KC

February 13, 2007 08:13 AM | Link to this

Head Coach: You’re right on about Chuck James.

By KC

February 13, 2007 08:18 AM | Link to this

DOB: How long will it take to get an up or down answer from MLB on the sale?

It sure would be nice to have this settled before the start of the season. It would be even nicer if they tell JS that he has a little cash to spend during the season if need be.

By KC

February 13, 2007 08:44 AM | Link to this

LEW:

I don’t think we can do much worse than TW. Hey… we may be going to another corporate owner. But at least we’re going from a struggling corporate owner to a non-struggling corporate ownere. That’s an improvement, I would think.

By Mackey Sasser

February 13, 2007 08:57 AM | Link to this

For those thinking things have to be better under Liberty than they were under TW, sad to say it doesn’t look that way. Check out this link I posted a couple of days ago to find out the disturbing reality of John Malone text to be linked

By matt

February 13, 2007 09:04 AM | Link to this

Make no mistake fellas, it’s going to come down to pitching! Our bullpen should be MUCH improved from last year. Hampton is a big ? and Hudson is the same way. If Hudson pitches like he did last year, and Hampton has a re-hab year where he’s basically just eating innings, we’re screwed! It won’t matter that our bullpen is one of the best. The Jones boys will produce (when chipper is healthy). THey’ve carried this offense before. I’m curious if McCann can continue his sophomore success and if Francouer will learn the definition of “patience.” I’m also curious how losing Laroche’s 35 HR and 100 RBIs (i might be off a couple) will affect our offense. Lots of question marks but if guys perform there’s no question we’ll win the division! And maybe more!

By Shaun

February 13, 2007 09:08 AM | Link to this

Without looking at it too in-depth, the top three or four teams in the NL East look pretty even. I can see the Braves, Mets and Phillies all winning around 90 games. Hard to pick at this point. I think the Braves have the most balance, the Mets have the most resources and the Phillies have the most offensive ability.

I’ll go with the Braves because of the balance—if their offense struggles their pitching can pick up the slack, if the starters struggle the bullpen can pick up the slack, etc. Also the Braves probably have the best minor league depth; if someone doesn’t pan out they can keep bringing in young talent to try and fill the void.

By ssiscribe

February 13, 2007 09:08 AM | Link to this

Figured most of you were watching “24” or still debating the Grammy winners and losers when I jumped on here shortly before 9 p.m. and didn’t see one iota about the sale of the Braves to Liberty Media being finalized.

But plenty of you weighed in with plenty to say, both positive and negative, as the night turned into morning. Fighting what feels like the onset of the flu – only a trip into the warm sunshine of Central Florida can cure that, but instead I’ll be here in the ATL getting ready to brave the frosty temps later this week – here’s one Scribe’s two-cents worth, on nothing more than gut intuition:

— MLB will approve the deal, hopefully before Opening Day.

— On the surface, nothing changes in 2007. Ticket prices and the like already are set. There has been no inclination from Liberty that any changes will take place in management, so those of you (or, shall I say, the one person) who wants to see Bobby Cox put out to pasture, sorry, not happening. John Schuerholz remains as GM.

— Liberty is in better shape than Time-Warner, and while the Braves are only a part of the deal between the two, the ballclub may not be as much of an afterthought as some of you think. The Liberty folks are smart enough to know they’re not getting the Royals or, for you NBA fans, the Hawks. Plenty of talent, plenty of attention on the franchise, and plenty of potential to have a championship-caliber team that is a contender for the World Series … I don’t think Liberty wants to screw that up.

— I think Liberty will not lower the payroll. I don’t think we’ll see the Braves back at the $105 million mark (or thereabouts), but a bump up to $90 million is possible. I think Liberty realizes raising the payroll can have a tremendous impact in it gives the Braves a realistic chance to sign Andruw Jones to a long-term deal, and/or gives the Braves the flexibility to make a deal at the trade deadline if the team is in a pennant race and, for whatever reason, left field or second base isn’t working out. If Liberty puts a little money into the Braves, it stands to make a nice return, especially if spending a few million on payroll puts this team in the NLCS or the World Series on a consistent basis.

There you go. Have at it. Any thoughts? Let ’em rip.

Everybody enjoy your day, and be safe in your travels with the rough thunderstorms rolling this way. DOB, safe trip to the south if you’re heading that way today.

Peace. The Scribe abides.

—30—

By Shaun

February 13, 2007 09:13 AM | Link to this

matt,

I don’t know if the Braves will need all that much from Hudson and Hampton, if Smoltz and James can repeat their performances. Hudson probably needs to be at least average and Hampton (or Davies) needs to be close to average but two great starters could be good enough—assuming the bullpen lives up to the expectations.

By the Rev. Dr. Vinnie, ESQ

February 13, 2007 09:28 AM | Link to this

DOB, I like what I hear about the Chops this year. If Thorman contributes 25/80 and Hampton/Hudson work out … we’re in good shape.

PS: For all that Police reunion talk … I think NWA said it best when they rapped, “F the Police”. It’s 2007 guys, get with the program.

By NYM

February 13, 2007 09:41 AM | Link to this

I totally agree with the comment made by DOC(7:44am) about the improvments by both the organizations of the Mets and Phillies. This in itself will not allow the Braves to beat down it’s own division anymore (See 2006 Standings). The winner of the East will be either the Mets or Phillies. The Braves have a lot of if’s in them. Just read through the posts. They’re full of IF’s and MAYBES’s.

By NYM

February 13, 2007 09:46 AM | Link to this

Who’s NWA??

By Drummerdad

February 13, 2007 10:07 AM | Link to this

DOB, Great blog. I’m more eager about this season than previous years. Going into last year was dreadful and I never had cause to have real hope about salvaging real Braves baseball. I like the Liberty Media news at this point because they represent something fresh. Who knows how they’ll perform. I was living in San Diego when (I think it was) Tom Warner got a hold of the Padres and made a bad situation worse. DOB, Is he the same guy who is part of the Red Sox now? (Remember he was the TV producer/owner who brought in Roseanne Barr to sing the National Anthem before a game? Afterwards she pulled a crotch grab and spat to simulate her view of the game.) He was the owner who gave us Fred McGriff and Toronto got Joe Carter and Robbie Alomar in a dismantling to make the team more financiailly attractive. Hopefully, Liberty won’t do us that way in 3 to 5 years. I liked Tennessee Paul’s take on that.

Speaking of San Diego, it was too bad Marty’s Chargers didn’t do better this year with the playoffs. They lost their poise in that game with New England and it bit them fatally. Dean Spanos and Smith must have somebody in mind or the in-fighting is much worse than we ever heard about and they just had to do something.

Police reunion: gotta wonder how long it will be before Stewart Copeland gets fed up with Sting’s m/o and puts the “correction” on him. There’s a story that Vinnie Colaiuta did that for him in New York in the early “post” Police days.

By Shaun

February 13, 2007 10:08 AM | Link to this

NYM,

I don’t see that the Mets and Phillies really improved significantly. They replace Cliff Floyd with Moises Alou. They have some young players who should be at least as good in ‘07 as they were in ‘06 but they also have a lot of old players who could decline, especially their pitchers.

Same with the Phillies, I don’t see that they improved much if at all.

The Braves, on the other hand, clearly did a lot to improve their run prevention, although they will drop a little in the run production department.

I still say all three teams look very close to even at this point. Maybe the Mets have a slight edge because of their outstanding, young nucleus—Beltran, Reyes and Wright.

By Thrillhouse44

February 13, 2007 10:13 AM | Link to this

IF I were NYM, MAYBE I would post on a Muts blog.

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 10:14 AM | Link to this

KC, no way of knowing exactly how long it’ll take to get approval from owners, as Tim Tucker explained in his story on the deal. Not a precedent to go by, a deal as complicated as this one. Some sales are approved really quickly, but it could drag on for months. I’d imagine it’ll get done relatively quick, but not sure about by opening day. And again, doesn’t really matter if it does or doesn’t, as far as the immediate impact on the team.

By NYM

February 13, 2007 10:16 AM | Link to this

Philly hasn’t improved at all???Trading for Freddie Garcia is a great addition to phillies rotation. That, I would call Improvment my friend. The Mets signing of Alou gives them great balance in their lineup that they lacked last year. This should only make them better.

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 10:19 AM | Link to this

Reality check, agreed on Metal Firecracker, though it’s difficult to pick one over others off that record, isn’t it? But yeah, that’s probably my favorite, along with Changed the Locks.

By Jeff R

February 13, 2007 10:24 AM | Link to this

Can’t believe that Liberty Media’s acquisition of the Braves has anything to do with baseball, the team or Atlanta. It was a purely calculated business-tax transaction for both corporations. I think Liberty Media will hold the Braves for however long the IRS stipulates it needs to to satisfy the law.

DOB, do you think McGuirk is angling to put together an ownership group to buy the club from Liberty Media when it sells?

Otherwise, I’m glad Kelly Johnson is highly regarded by management for his potential as a leadoff hitter, but can he field? I’d rather have a Lemke clone play 2B.

By Lew

February 13, 2007 10:40 AM | Link to this

NYM-Freddie Garcia will still have to pitch in Philadelphia. I’m not sure Steve Carlton could be successful in that stadium. As far as Moises Alou? Dude, he has some pop, but so did Cliff Floyd. Alou is considerably older than Floyd, is coming from a hitter’s park to one that is larger and has as many injury problems as Floyd did. I mean , for crying out loud, Alou fell off a treadmill TWICE and tore up his knee. I’m glad your “upgrade” fills you with such warm fuzzy feelings. What happened to the bottomless purse the Mets had? They sure didn’t use it this winter. Alou, Sosa, and Chan Ho Park. I’m shuddering with fear. Oh yeah. Ruben Sierra, too. The East better run and hide.

By crs

February 13, 2007 10:43 AM | Link to this

Pitching - I suspect Smoltz will be solid but age has started to catch up, he is at best 15 wins. Hudson will continue to get worse and might win 10. James will be good and win 13-15. Davies should be better and might win 8-10. Hampton is done and at best wins 5. The bullpen should be much better. Defense - Should be good though up the middle short/second is not near as good as Belliard/Lemke days. Offense - Same old same old, Chipper is way past his prime, we have no hitters and we will strike out probably more than any team in the league. We have no speed and we will not be able to manufacture any runs at all. As usual unless we hit a couple three run homers we will struggle. Bottom line, we should be better than last year but this team again struggles to play 500. No playoffs again.

By KC

February 13, 2007 10:51 AM | Link to this

NYM: Freddy Garcia posted an ERA of 4.53 last season. His ERA over the last 5 seasons is 4.22. Pitching in that Philadelphia band box might not do his ERA any favors either.

He has been an above average pitcher throughout his career, especially in the AL… but let’s not overstate this acquisition.

By old fart 63

February 13, 2007 10:51 AM | Link to this

Come on Dave. Stick to baseball. Drop the music horseshit. If I want lyrics I’ll go to my ipod.

By Shaun

February 13, 2007 10:52 AM | Link to this

NYM,

You really believe Freddy Garcia is going to make a significant difference? They also lost David Delucci and Mike Lieberthal. I don’t know if the Phillies got much worse, but I don’t think they got significantly better either.

And the Mets add Alou, but is that a big upgrade over Floyd? Maybe a minor one. And you have to consider Delgado, Valentin, LoDuca and Green are old, so they aren’t likely to repeat their ‘06 performances…not to mention the question marks around three old pitchers.

Don’t get me wrong, I think the Mets and Phillies are solid teams. But I’m not so sure they don’t have as many questions as the Braves.

By NYM

February 13, 2007 10:54 AM | Link to this

What’s with the sarcasm Lew? My post wasn’t threatening, it was just optimistic. The “balance” I was referring too is because Alow is a right handed hitter with a great batting avg against lefties. As far as the money situation. I think the Mets did the right thing in not overpaying for Zito or any other pitcher. Stop being such a D-I-C-K

By Gil

February 13, 2007 10:55 AM | Link to this

There is no reason for the owners not to approve the sale of the Braves by Time Warner to Liberty for several reasons. 1. They will look to be able to make their own teams more valuable in the future. 2. Did not Direct TV (Liberty Media) just sign a $700 million contract with MLB for rights to extra innings? 3. Other owners can hardly wait until the fire sale starts and big name talent like Hudson, Smoltz, and the Jones boys become available on the market when the Braves start slashing payroll prior to the resale of the franchise.

Look out when you start hearing terms like competitive team, a playoff contender. All code words used to denote cheap labor, bigger profits.

It was a nice ride while it lasted; pray we get it done this year. Next year we may be looking up at the Nationals and the Marlins and waiting to see who they cut to know who is going to fill our outfield spots like the Braves of the ’70s.

By Shaun

February 13, 2007 10:55 AM | Link to this

crs,

Are you kidding? No hitters? The Braves offense scored the 2nd most runs in the league playing half their games in a pitchers park and in a division full of pitchers parks. Probably aren’t going to do that again, but the offense will be fine.

By Gil

February 13, 2007 10:58 AM | Link to this

There is no reason for the owners not to approve the sale of the Braves by Time Warner to Liberty for several reasons. 1. They will look to be able to make their own teams more valuable in the future. 2. Did not Direct TV (Liberty Media) just sign a $700 million contract with MLB for rights to extra innings? 3. Other owners can hardly wait until the fire sale starts and big name talent like Hudson, Smoltz, and the Jones boys become available on the market when the Braves start slashing payroll prior to the resale of the franchise.

Look out when you start hearing terms like competitive team, a playoff contender. All code words used to denote cheap labor, bigger profits.

It was a nice ride while it lasted; pray we get it done this year. Next year we may be looking up at the Nationals and the Marlins and waiting to see who they cut to know who is going to fill our outfield spots like the Braves of the ’70s.

By Greg in TN

February 13, 2007 11:04 AM | Link to this

Morning everyone…

The shoe has finally dropped in terms of the deal between TW and Liberty. And while there is a fair amount of groans and grumbling from my fellow Braves faithful, I am willing to give Malone and the Rocky Mountain boys the benefit of the doubt.

There has been a lot of hand wringing about TW selling the team to someone local, but in my mind, at least for the sake of the franchise, we are better off having TW out of the picture as soon as possible. If this deal fell through, I would guarantee that any chance we had of resigning AJ would have gone with it because TW would have kept payroll at the same level until a new owner took over. I realize that there is no guarantees that Liberty will raise payroll, however myself, TennPaul, and many others believe it is in their best interests to do so. Why? Because if Liberty is wanting to sell the team as soon as IRS accounting rules allow, they need to make sure the franchise value remains as high as possible, and a modest increase in payroll would continue to ensure a competitive product on the field.

Now… I opined some time ago that I felt a bump of $8 - 10 million or so would be just what the doctor ordered for the team next year and is about what could be expected from Liberty should they decide to do so. They could surprise with a higher bump, they could decide to keep payroll at the same level. To read into what quotes are coming out of Denver from Liberty’s brass and try to gauge intent as to how they will approach payroll is premature IMHO.

mariner As to your question about Turner Field, it is still owned by the city of Atlanta and Fulton county and is managed by the City of Atlanta and Fulton County Recreation Authority (AFCRA) and was not a part of the sale.

By Shaun

February 13, 2007 11:06 AM | Link to this

Lew (and NYM),

Wow, somebody is sensitive.

I do think the Mets did the right thing by not giving Zito the money or the years he wanted.

And I do think Alou was a decent risk to take.

The Minaya did a good job this offseason. I just don’t know if he could have done enough to improve his team that much, given that a lot is tied into older players.

Mets should be good, but are they really any better than the Braves or Phillies? Maybe, because of their young nucleus but they are also hoping for some things that may not happen (namely that most of the old position players, old starters and old closer performing almost as well as they did last season).

By Dave knockahomer

February 13, 2007 11:09 AM | Link to this

Man, spring training begins Friday…..am ready! This is the most exciting year to me since 1991 which can never be outdone! What a marvelous year, but I look for another one. GO BRAVES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

By Robert

February 13, 2007 11:09 AM | Link to this

We can only pray that someone at Liberty media decides it’s time for a change in the dugout.

Lord let Cox’s reign of error end in ‘07

By Mackey Sasser

February 13, 2007 11:10 AM | Link to this

Gil is dead on. Pray Liberty flips the team quickly to another buyer.

By NYM

February 13, 2007 11:19 AM | Link to this

I was responding the a post that said the Phillies made no improvments on their team. Their lineup was solid so adding Garcia to the rotation, I beleive, is an improvment. As for the Mets. Everyone knows that after Nady was traded they struggled against lefties. Floyd was a non factor the second half of the season so Alou should much needed balance to a potent lineup. I wasn’t realy gauging the level of improvment. That will have to wait for the season to play out.

By FlimFlamMan

February 13, 2007 11:22 AM | Link to this

What are you smokin’ Robert?—I doubt anyone associated with Liberty Media Conglomerate based in Colorado knows much of anything about MLB baseball, or is interested in some ol’ fart sitting in a dugout in Atlanta Georgia!…By the time Liberty Media is finished stripping the Braves down to bare bones all you spoiled fans that have been chastising Time Warner about the budget will be reminiscing about the ‘good ol’ days’ when they owned the team and had $80+ mil. per year to work with—For allowing this transaction Bud Selig needs to go!!…

By Ernest Densey

February 13, 2007 11:22 AM | Link to this

OK DOB I am as confused as ever. Now the deal for the sale of the Braves has been finalized pending MLB Officials but where does this put us for keeping AJ? I know new ownership will be looking to lock us Frenchy and McCann but locking up Aj for a veteran presence would be beneficial to the team. Plus he is not yet thirty. So where do we stand?

By DonCoburleone

February 13, 2007 11:25 AM | Link to this

DOB, do you know if there is a time frame to when Liberty Media will address the Braves organization and let them know what they are planning to do? Or will they even address the team at all? I guess, bottom line, when will they let the Braves know what is going to happen to the payroll?

By MBATL

February 13, 2007 11:33 AM | Link to this

I don’t really get the “hitter’s ballpark” argument when talking about the Phillies’ pitching.

Doesn’t the visiting team have to pitch in the same park? So the total runs per game, and era, for both the Phillies and the opponents will likely be higher in Philly. Maybe that’s simplistic (?).

To me, Citizens Bank is not so hitter-friendly as to completely change the nature of the game (as Coors is without the humidor).

I think the Phils do have the most proven starting pitching… fewer question marks than the Braves or Mets. They have 5 guys that you wouldn’t mind running out most any time, and a 6th (Eaton) that’s not bad for a 5th or 6th starter. Their rotation is not great, but is almost certain to be respectable (park adjusted, of course). I don’t know if you can say that about the Braves or the Mets.

Braves have the best bullpen in the division; Mets the best infield; Braves probably the best outfield. All of which is to say, should be a good race. Our rotation could be great, but we only need it to be good, imo. As most seem to agree, if Hampton is average at least, and Hudson a little better than average, I think the Braves take it.

By mariner

February 13, 2007 11:42 AM | Link to this

Greg in TN, thanks for the info about the stadium, didn’t know that.

By Lister

February 13, 2007 11:43 AM | Link to this

the braves are going to win the division?

hehehe

no, they’re not.

By Dixie Chicks

February 13, 2007 11:48 AM | Link to this

Hey, like we won a bunch o’ Grammy’s!!!!!

By KC

February 13, 2007 11:50 AM | Link to this

Lister: Who’s going to win the division? In other words are you a Mets fan… or a Phillies fan?

By MGL

February 13, 2007 11:50 AM | Link to this

Hillbilly - Could not resist.

ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS

>

        Last Tuesday, as  President Bush got off the

Helicopter in front of the White House, he was

Carrying a baby piglet under each arm.

>

The squared away Marine guard snaps to attention,

Salutes, and says: “Nice pigs, Sir.”

>

The President replies “These are not pigs. These

are authentic Arkansas Razorback H ogs. I got one for

Senator Hillary Clinton and I got one for Speaker of

The House Nancy Pelosi.”

>

The squared away Marine again snaps to attention,

Salutes, and says,

>

“Excellent trade, Sir.”

By NYM

February 13, 2007 11:51 AM | Link to this

MBATL- I would have to disagree with you on 2 points. The Braves haven’t played a single inning yet. So you can’t say they have the best bullpen. as for the outfield, Alou is better than Diaz in left, Beltran does all that Jones does and more (Steals, hits for avg) so I will take him over Jones. At this point in Greens career, I’ll give you right field. Our 4th outfielder (Chavez) is also better than yours. I’ll take the Mets outfield over the Braves……

By dcarp23

February 13, 2007 11:54 AM | Link to this

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove06/columns/story?id=2763130

ESPN on the Bravo’s bullpen, naming it the top pen in the bigs.

By rammerjammer

February 13, 2007 11:55 AM | Link to this

It’ll come down to which pitchers will meet expectations.

Some expectations are realistic - Smoltz to do well, James also - and some are more hopeful - Hudson improving, Hampton healthy and good.

The other teams have the same issues.

Look at NY. Our Kyle Davies concerns are the same as their Oliver Perez questions. Smoltz and James? How about Glavine and Maine? Same issues (age, second season success).

Phillies? Aging closer; best starter has maturity issues and could meltdown anytime. Guys - Lieber, Moyer - who’ve done it before but are clearly in their twilight. Garcia? No different than Hudson really. Serviceable, not outstanding.

Offenses have questions, too. And who has the depth to deal with significant injuries and/or slumps?

It’ll be a three-team race into September. The Braves’ chances are no better or worse than the others.

Anyone who confidently predicts their team will win is whistling in the dark.

By KC

February 13, 2007 11:58 AM | Link to this

MBATL: You are correct. The Phillies offense was almost as good as their offensive numbers would indicate, and almost as bad as their pitching numbers would indicate. Runs scored and ERAs will be inflated in a park like that. Absolutely.

By KC

February 13, 2007 12:07 PM | Link to this

NYM: “The Braves haven’t played a single inning yet. So you can’t say they have the best bullpen.”

NYM: Respectfully, that was kind of a silly comment. NO ONE has played a single game yet. This is ALL on paper. Of course we all know that anything can happen. But if we’re not talking about these teams “on paper” then we’ve got nothing to talk about. We should all just log off until April 1st.

By Shaun

February 13, 2007 12:07 PM | Link to this

NYM,

You can’t say the Braves have the best bullpen but you can say the Mets have the better outfield…makes sense to me.

No, we can’t say anything about who are the division favorites, who is likely to have a good year because no one has played a single inning, yet, right? Why even discuss anything? No one’s played a single inning yet.

Could it be your love of the Mets blinds you to the contradictory statement you just made? Could it be at least a couple of teams in the NL East look just as good as the Mets?

By MBATL

February 13, 2007 12:15 PM | Link to this

NYM, on your first point, obviously, all of this is based on expectation, as the season hasn’t started yet. I guess every statement should be start, “In my opinion,” but that gets rather cumbersome. But, In My Opinion, the Braves have the best ‘pen in the east.

It’s fair to debate the outfield. Francoeur and Langerhans (assuming he starts) are much younger and more durable than the Mets’ corners, Alou and Green. Much, much, much better defensively. Much more likely to stay healthy.

Braves are likely to have 2 OF post 100+ RBI; the Mets one (granted, if Alou can stay healthy, he’s a candidate for this list, but I doubt it).

Beltran-AJ is pretty much a wash - both great CF, with slightly different strengths (I’d love to have Beltran on my team, obviously). Diaz is a fine hitter as a 4th OF; Chavez is a nice player too, but how many leadoff types do you need in the lineup?

Anyway, a fair debate but I’ll take Francouer’s power and RBI ability, and potential for improvement, and the Langy/Diaz combo, over 2 aging corner OF and a speedy but low-powered backup.

By braves fan

February 13, 2007 12:18 PM | Link to this

I think Mariner made some good points about John Malone, chairman of Liberty and what he’s trying to do business wise. However, I’d like to point out that Malone is NOT the owner of Liberty and as Braves fans we all know what can happen when a one man owner becomes part of a mega-corporation. Ted Turner made the Braves what they became in the 1990’s, but his mergers with TW and AOL, etc. ruined not only the Braves, but to a degree Ted himself. He lost almost all his power. So just be aware that just because Liberty Media may have a baseball/sports friendly chairman now, that will not always be the case. Had someone like Arthur Blank been allowed to purchase the Braves we’d all know who was going to be in charge for the long term. And say what you will about the Falcons on field success, the organization over there is leaps and bounds above the Rankin file leadership that preceeded Blank. He may not have spent what the Yankees do, but he would have made the payroll competitive, allowing guys like Andruw and Smoltz to stay indefinitely.

By Lew

February 13, 2007 12:19 PM | Link to this

NYM-Not being sarcastic and you might just want to examine your own D!ckhood, Dude.

By chipdip

February 13, 2007 12:19 PM | Link to this

giles would have still been better at 2nd….johnson is too clumsey and not as agile.

By atl

February 13, 2007 12:29 PM | Link to this

giles was good but he struck out too much and we need more speed which johnson can do as well as langerhans. go braves 2007

By Shaun

February 13, 2007 12:30 PM | Link to this

Lew and NYM,

Is this an adult blog? Are you two in the middle school computer room?

By Lew

February 13, 2007 12:35 PM | Link to this

Stinky-Posting under my name as you did at 11:36 this morning, really doesn’t fool anyone, you little pyschologically challeneged Werm. Do you really think you can convince others that I have your mental inadequacies? Nice try psycho. Hope you enjoy your periodic break with the real world. It’s coming soon. Reduced to uttering incoherencies and talking to yourself as a multitude of personalities. What a psychopathology. NYM-Have you noticed that everytime I post something in response to your misplaced optimism, you don’t come back with facts and figures, you call me a D!ck or an a*******hole. You really need to get over yourself. Be that as it may-Due to the snowstorm, I’m heading for Florida a day early. This will be my last post until I get back at the end of the month. Take my name in vain all you want you losers. I’ll see you when I get back. To everyone else, TenPaul, Drummerdad, Grinch,KC, Shaun, Scribe and even Head Coach-Take care and carry on. Watch out for disassociating psychopaths and keep the faith. Go Braves.

By Shaun

February 13, 2007 12:52 PM | Link to this

MBATL,

I think Alou has to decline sharply or get injured and Francouer needs to improve immensely in order for the Braves’ outfield to jump ahead of the Mets’, unfortunately.

I think Beltran is a little better than AJ at this point. You could make an argument that Beltran could have been the NL MVP. (I’ll know I’ll catch some flack for this.) Look at their AVG/OBP/SLG numbers and both won Gold Gloves.

Francouer’s out-making far outweighed his “RBI ability” (which had more to do with opportunities than anything that we would call ability) and he costs the Braves a lot last season. Think about it, Francouer costs the Braves the equivalent of 169 3-up/3-down innings. That’s over 18 scoreless games (broken up into 9 innings).

Before you criticize me—I am a Braves fan. Just being objective.

By braveheart

February 13, 2007 12:56 PM | Link to this

people keep claiming that the phillies have the best rotation. i just do not see it. myers, garcia, moyer, eaton, hamels, and leiber? the record for their respective teams in their last 479 games started is 257-222, a 53.6 winning percentage. hamels 13-10, 56.5%; leiber 30-32, 48%; myers 52-45, 53.6 %; moyer 49-50, 49%; garcia 57-40, 58.7%; eaton 56-45, 55.4%

presumably, myers, garcia, eaton, hamels, and moyer will the be the starting five. if the historical trend holds through, the phils are only slated on paper to win about 88 games, 55% of the games started by all of these guys presuming the starting five all start 32 games.

the winning percentage for the braves however over the last several years when smoltz, hampton, hudson, and james take the mound is a 60% winning percentage. james, 11-7, 61%; smoltz 42-26, 62%; hudson 53-38, 58.2%; hampton 43-29, 59.7%. if these four all start 128 games and the rest of the rotation manages to go .500, then the braves should win 93 games. if smoltz, hampton, & hudson help the braves win as much as they have historically over the last 2 or 3 years, and james and the fifth starter only get the braves a .500 record, then the braves should on paper still win 89 games, still edging out the phils on paper with their rotation.

of course, none of this means anything. it is all preseason paper tiger stuff. what eventually happens during the course of 162 is entirely dependent upon the ebbs and flows of 162, the ups and downs of pitcher confidence, bullpen, fielding, hitting, run differential, aging, injuries, et al.

but to say that the phils have the best rotation on paper at this point to me is just simply not true if you really just look at the stats and the paper in front of you. teams have just had more overall winning percentage success with the braves best four starters than the other teams have had with the phillies starters over the last 3 or so years.

By The Grinch

February 13, 2007 12:58 PM | Link to this

Take it sleazy, Lew. Man, it’s raining like an SOB here. I may sneak up into the barn loft and take a nap under the tin roof. Later.

By Shaun

February 13, 2007 01:01 PM | Link to this

Braves are likely to have 2 OF post 100+ RBI; the Mets one (granted, if Alou can stay healthy, he’s a candidate for this list, but I doubt it).

Unfortunately RBI do not a hitter make. RBI are highly context-dependent.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 13, 2007 01:04 PM | Link to this

This blog needs an enema in a bad way…..I can’t see justify continuing on here much longer if it stays this way throughout the spring. Decent bloggers are being cast into exile like it’s going out of style. The f-ups are winning this battle, ladies and gentlemen. Is that so hard to understand? Their purpose is to f-up a good thing and they’re succeeding as long as we feed their ego’s. Ignore them or watch the core group of good bloggers go down in flames. That’s all you can do. I’m holding on out of sheer excitement for the upcoming season.

By BravesFaninRockies

February 13, 2007 01:08 PM | Link to this

Hey DOB,

OK, I’m a Carolina alum, so I’m not objective. But you have to wonder how much longer Coach K will be around. For one thing, Johnny Dawkins has stuck around for several more years than either Quin Snyder or Tommy Amaker did, which makes you think Johnny D is waiting to inherit the job. Also, when Coach K flirted with the Lakers a few years back, he had to be considering the exits.

IMO, that flirtation has also hurt Duke on the recruiting front (K continues to land a couple of decent guys a year but no monster classes like those at Carolina, KU, Texas, Ohio State, etc.) If there’s any hint that Coach K might leave, other coaches can plant that seed in the minds of the recruits who plan to stay in school for a couple or three years and who don’t want to play for another coach. That certainly hurt Carolina during the Guthridge era — a terrific bench coach who lost several recruiting battles because everyone knew he wouldn’t be there long.

Anyway, looks like March will be a wonderful month for Madness and a fine time to watch these Braves develop.

Go Heels!

By Lew

February 13, 2007 01:12 PM | Link to this

Oh yeah-I forgot the Hillbilly. Perservere and Abide, Dude, and keep rockin.

By MBATL

February 13, 2007 01:26 PM | Link to this

Shaun, I’m not asking anyone to be less than objective. It’s baseball, not politics! I try to keep my blinders off when talking about the Braves, though I’m a big fan too.

Beltran had a career year last year - he’s never shown quite that kind of power before. He may do it for 10 more years and be the next Willie Mays (kidding). I called it a wash, but yeah, last year, Beltran probably had the better year, and I am not a blind AJ loyalist - Beltran may be better from this point on. He’s a great player.

Alou is what, 40, 41? And Green is just not the player he was 5 years ago.

Francoeur - I understand about his negative numbers. I would expect him to improve, but not dramatically, in the OBP department (he is just 23, and I think is having to “work” at success for probably the first time in his life). Hopefully his OBP (or whatever number you want to reference) will improve to “fair” instead of “awful.” I suspect it will, but who knows?

In addition to just a lot of opportunities, though, I think you should also give him credit for hitting very well with RISP and in close/late situations. He’s done that for 2 years now, so it’s a trend more than dumb luck.

Also, his “home” numbers were .305/.340/.503 last year. That, and the clutch hitting numbers, suggest to me that the ability is there, but it’s more a focus issue.

Anyway, I think in my original comment I said “probably” better, regarding our OF, and like I said, it’s a fair debate, not a slam dunk for either team.

By dougp

February 13, 2007 01:39 PM | Link to this

I agree with the three way race heading into Sept thing. Which team do you like then? The one with the most playoff and big game experience. I’ll take the Braves in that one baby. Chipper and Andruw have more post season at bats than all the players on the Mutts and Phils combined. Braves also have the winningest postseason pitcher ever. Let’s just hope all toes stay healthy and nobody’s arm falls off and life will indeed be good.

By MBATL

February 13, 2007 01:46 PM | Link to this

braveheart, my mistake on the Phils’ rotation; you’re right, Eaton is likely to be in the rotation.

As to those numbers, I just don’t think it’s reasonable to assume Hampton’s winning pct in ‘07, coming off TJ surgery, to match his career with the Braves. Hope so! And Hudson’s career winning pct with Atlanta is not reflective of how poorly he pitched last year. Hamels is likely to be better (he’s a very good young pitcher).

And, your numbers conveniently leave out the winning % when Davies starts, or Cormier. It’s very selective.

If Hampton and Hudson return to form, or close to it, the Braves definitely have the best rotation in the East. My point was that while not great (I think I said that), the Phils rotation is really not full of “ifs” like ours is, and the Mets’.

By braveheart

February 13, 2007 01:48 PM | Link to this

Play this little math game:

Total Plate Appearances multiplied by slugging percentage divided by 3 The sum of that should give you expected RBIs

Then add Total Bases to Walks to HBPs Divide this sum by 4 and you should have expected runs

Add the expected runs to the expected RBIs, and see what you get

This is what I got with those mathematical equations:

Mccann, expected total runs + RBIs is equal to 160 runs/rbis. Actually had 154 runs/rbis last year

Laroche, expected totals runs +RBIs = 187; Actual Runs + RBIs = 179

Giles, expected runs + RBIs= 151; actual runs + RBIs = 147

Chipper, expected runs + Rbis = 172; Actual runs + rbis = 173

Edgar, expected runs + rbis = 179, actual runs +rbis = 170

druw, expected Runs/Rbis = 217, actual runs + rbis =234

frenchy, expected runs/rbis=184; actual runs + rbis= 186

betemit, expected runs/rbis with la/atl =112; actual runs/rbis = 102

the total expected runs/rbis for these 8 guys was 1362; the actual was 1345 Runs + RBIs.

Not perfect sabermetrician analysis but pretty accurate. The inconsistencies in actual and expected runs and RBIs is mostly contingent upon batting order placement and the like - thus the leadoff hitter, #2 hitter, will have askew RBI totals that are made up for the most part in their askew run totals.

Boring math stuff but hopefully it debunks the myth that people keep spitting forth on here that Frenchy had some bogus RBI totals for what his production was worth. His 686 plate appearances multiplied by his .449 slugging percentage divided by 3 reveals that you would have expected him to knock in 102.67 RBIs. Frenchy of course had 103 RBIs last season.

Take it for what it is worth to you.

By Shaun

February 13, 2007 01:53 PM | Link to this

MBATL,

Nice post. Fun to debate/discuss with someone logical or someone who doesn’t put you down for relying “too much” on stats.

Actually, I’m not so sure about Francouer’s numbers in the clutch. They don’t look all that much better than his overall numbers. .299/.338/.611 close and late. Still too many outs for my liking.

Yeah, I do think it’s close. Jury is still out. Depends a lot on what the older guys like Alou and Green do.

By braveheart

February 13, 2007 01:59 PM | Link to this

your point is well taken, MBATL. hampton is a great unknown. i think it could be a reprisal of 2003 where he was recovering from the aftereffects of coors field in the first half but then started rocking in the second half. hopefully, that will be the case. it is all just so unknown. i am pretty sure something will go wrong. smoltz might finally show his age or get injured. hampton might not be back and might get reinjured. hudson may continue his regression. james might have a soph slump. davies might spit the bit again. who knows at this point? so, your point is well taken.

By BB FAN

February 13, 2007 02:06 PM | Link to this

NYM,

You think Beltran is better than Jones? That’s absolutely delusional. Typical Mets fan! They think because the Mets won the division for the first time in 20 years, they are the best team ever.

First of all, Beltran has not hit for average the last 3 years. He hit .267 in ‘04, .266 in ‘05 and .275 in ‘06. Jones has hit .261, .263 and .262 those same three years with 50 more RBIs than Beltran. Jones has 92 HRs the last two years compared to 57 for Beltran. In fact, Beltran has hit just 95 HRs over the last three (3) years combined compared to Jones’ 92 in two years! And Jones covers a lot more ground in center than Beltran could even dream of.

Jones and Beltran are only 1 day apart in age. Jones has 342 career HRs, 1023 RBIs, 133 SBs, 962 Runs with a career .267 AVG and nine (9) Gold Gloves!! Beltran has 203 HRs, 763 RBIs, 227 SBs, 826 Runs with a .281 Avg with one 1 Gold Glove!!

Beltran is not even close to the player Jones is.

By Greg in TN

February 13, 2007 02:13 PM | Link to this

braves fan,

Agreed on everything in your 12:18 post, however when TW announced they were putting the club up for sale, I have a feeling that anyone that was a current TW shareholder that approached with interest in the team would be fast-tracked in negotiations and an outsider (such as Arthur Blank) would have had a considerably longer and tougher road to make a deal because he wouldn’t have had the one thing TW coveted as a part of any deal (their own stock and enough of it to make a deal worthwhile).

I am still of the belief that Liberty will hold onto the team until they are legally allowed to put the team on the market, and at that point, they will sell to a local owner (maybe Blank, maybe someone else).

Even if someone with deep pockets comes in (Blank or someone of the like) I still don’t see the payroll getting hiked to compete with the Yankees or even the Red Sox. The economics of the game at that scale does not favor pouring that amount into payroll and even if it does, I think we’re only $15 - $20 million dollars below the point where we run into the diminishing returns principle.

IMO, the best case scenario would be an additional $10-15 million in payroll and additional flexibility for JS to make a key free agent signing here and there.

By Reality Check

February 13, 2007 02:22 PM | Link to this

DOB,

Could you please arrange with the techies at your paper to set up a competing, baseball-only blog for toomuchhorseshitonthisblog and his partners in whine? I’d be extremely interested to see how much traffic they get.

And another thing: All I ask, don’t tell anybody the secrets, don’t tell anybody the secrets I told you.

By TennesseePaul

February 13, 2007 02:25 PM | Link to this

Actually, I’m not so sure about Francouer’s numbers in the clutch. They don’t look all that much better than his overall numbers.

Lets see…
.299/.338/.611 In Clutch
.260/.293/.449 overall

Payne, his clutch numbers look way better than his over all. He hit nearly .300 in the clutch and got on base 45 points higher in the clutch and slugged 162 points higher. If he did that the whole season you wouldn’t be complaining. Especially since he hits 6th. That type of slugging and AVG make for him moving runners over and knocking them in quite a bit.
His clutch numbers more closely resemble his home numbers
.299/.338/.611 In Clutch
.305/.340/.533 At home.
.217/.248/.369 On the road.

He just needs to work on those Road numbers. Interestingly, he seemed to improve late in the season. We played more home games late in the season as well. If he can be as good on the road as he is at home and in the clutch it will be a vast improvement on his overall numbers.

By Head Coach

February 13, 2007 02:26 PM | Link to this

The two words I am waiting for : PLAY BALL !

By TennesseePaul

February 13, 2007 02:27 PM | Link to this

BBFAN: Thank you. I was going to say something but no need now.

By brian

February 13, 2007 02:29 PM | Link to this

Braves fan - bet Coach K’s back or hip is hurting him and he will need more surgery. Time to abandon his team again and place these upcoming losses on an assistant Coach’s record, not his own.

Come on Coach K, you recruited those players in the 90s, coached them in fall practice and all the way to January. The losses had already started before your surgery, and you leave the team and Coach Gaudette covers for you. Yet Coach K selfishly petitions the NCAA to not have the losses of the inferior team that he recruited and coached up until the last 6-8 weeks of the season to be taken off his coaching record? Give me a break.

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 02:32 PM | Link to this

Shaun, found a small discrepancy in numbers. According to Stats Inc, Francouer hit .304/.339/.637 in close-and-late situations, not the .299/.338/.611 you posted. Not significantly different, though.

However, the thing you left out was a big one _ team highs of NINE homers and 33 RBIs in those situations. LaRoche (8) was only other Brave with more than four homers in close-and-late situations, and Andruw (21) was only other Brave with more than 15 RBIs.

Francoeur had more than twice as many RBIs in late-and-close situations as any Brave other than Andruw, and had more than 50 percent more than Andruw.

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 02:33 PM | Link to this

Just one other stat on Francoeur’s clutch hitting: He had 53 two-out RBIs. Only player in the majors with more was Ryan Howard (55).

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 02:46 PM | Link to this

Reality Check _ I would, but I like the page hits too much to give them up.

By TennesseePaul

February 13, 2007 02:50 PM | Link to this

.304/.339/.637 In the clutch. That’s even better.

.260/.293/.449 Overall
.304/.339/.637 In the Clutch
.305/.340/.533 At home.
.217/.248/.369 On the road.

His Home averages are almost identical to his clutch. What was this guy doing on the road that kept him from focusing? There had to be something. Seems only a base runner could pull him back into the game. What are his road clutch numbers, maybe they drop off as well. But that’s just weird.

By KC

February 13, 2007 02:57 PM | Link to this

GRINCH, that monsoon you were referring to finally made it’s way to the Lake Lanier area. Dadgum it’s coming down out there!

By Lister

February 13, 2007 02:57 PM | Link to this

from BP:

1. 2006 NYN NL 17.818 2. 2006 SDN NL 14.949 3. 2006 HOU NL 10.162 … 16. 2006 ATL NL 1.243

So I’d say you had quite a long ways to make up in the bullpen section last year. The Soriano acquisition was dynamite for you all, no doubt about that. Bavasi is an utter moron. Jury is still very out on the Gonzales trade. Either way, it will help the pen at the cost of OPS production. But have you even equaled the Mets pen this offseason? Maybe. It’s certainly quite close and, IMO, will come down to the performances of Duaner Sanchez and Bob Wickman. But this is at the cost of severely weakening the production from your infield. And when are we going to stop pretending that Francouer is anything special? Yes, he’s a local boy. That’s great, but the offensive numbers just ain’t there for a corner outfielder, and, historically, plate discipline doesn’t drastically improve. This is a problem. I do love McCann though.

Oh, I’m a Mets fan.

By Dennis Finch

February 13, 2007 03:01 PM | Link to this

I forgot — you guys are boring. And my computer mouse works.

By KC

February 13, 2007 03:02 PM | Link to this

DOB: So when word does come down as to what will change (payroll, etc.) if anything… that word will come from McGruirk, I’m guessing?

BTW, DOB… sadly, that restaurant recommendation I made (the 57th Fight Group)… you can forget about it. It closed January 1st after over 20 years in business. Damn I’m depressed about that. It was a really, really cool place.

By MBATL

February 13, 2007 03:23 PM | Link to this

Shaun, ‘preciate that. Question, since you must have access to numbers and analysis:

Frenchy hit .305/.340/.533 at home, with 19 homers and 65 RBI in 315 abs. (give me a 22-year-old who can do this over 150 games and I’ll give you a superstar)

But on the road, just .217/.248/.369, with 10 HR and 38 RBI in 336 abs.

Any other players with this kind of differential? And in saberworld, what does it mean for a young player? You may have no idea, which is fine, just wondering what the sabermatrons might say on this kind of thing.

btw, I enjoy the numbers (usually). However, I do have a question: You were all over Pujols for MVP, and said that Beltran might have earned it as well. I don’t really disagree with either, but doesn’t “games played” come into consideration?

Beltran contributed nothing in 22 games, Pujols in 18. 20 games is a big part of a major league season.

Wondering why that doesn’t come into play in your analysis. Just a question, not a criticism …

By RC

February 13, 2007 03:25 PM | Link to this

One thing I don’t think is taken into account enough when talking about how the Braves (or any team) improved from the prior year is the age of the players on that team. With the exceptions of Chipper, Smoltz, and Wickman (given they play HUGE roles on the team), nobody on the Braves roster is at an age where it could be reasonably expected for their performance to decline. In fact, because of the youth it might be reasonably expected for a lot of players performance to improve. Compare that to a team like the Mets, who could reasonably expect declines from Glavine, Alou, Green, Hernandez, Lo Duca, Valentin, Wagner, Franco, and Pedro to name a few. Every player I just named is over 34, and age catches up with everyone eventually.

By Matthew

February 13, 2007 03:28 PM | Link to this

MGL:

Hilarious-but I don’t want Clinton and Pelosi raoming around our fair state-we have enough dangerous animals already!

By RC

February 13, 2007 03:31 PM | Link to this

This is purely speculation, but the home/road splits for Francouer could mean he’s a 22 year old kid who actually acts like it on occasion. I wonder how many nights on the road he was out a little later than was prudent, and how that might have affected his performance. Again, just speculation, but I know what I might have done in his situation.

By NYM

February 13, 2007 03:47 PM | Link to this

When comparing bullpens it’s not the same as comparing individual players. I grade them as a unit. So since there’s no history to go by I/you can’t say the Braves bullpen is better. You’re only as good as your last season. By those standards the Mets have a better “Proven” bullpen. As for Beltran VS Andruw I would imagine it would be different from fan to fan. I read one post that said Beltran never hit for power like last season? He his 38 the year before last. He’s strikes out less (1,023 vs 836), can beat out and infield hit, can keep rallies going with his speed, much more base stealing ability. Anyway, I would prefer him to Andruw and I’m sure there are many who would agree.

By Ron Roberts

February 13, 2007 03:47 PM | Link to this

I think we can all blog til we’re blue in the face (or fingers), but none of us have any way of knowing how Mike Hampton and Chuck James and Tim Hudson are going to pitch for the Braves this season.

If you wanna be pragmatic and look at this division as a whole, it doesn’t seem, to me anyhow, that any team really improved itself in a vastly measurable manner.

The Mets have swapped out hodge-podge pitching for other hodge-podge pitchers, and did little to improve on their position players. But then, they didn’t need to, either. Getting rid of Cliff Floyd might’ve improved them more than hurt ‘em.

The Phillies probably bettered their rotation, slightly, but Wes Helms sits atop their 3B depth chart, and Shane Victorino atop their RF chart. ‘Scuse me?

The Marlins retain a strong pitching staff, but you’d be hard-pressed to recognize their position players, aside from Uggla and Miggy Cabrera. But we said that last season, too, and they competed. They just didn’t improve upon that, I don’t think.

Tha Nats still suck.

And, just for comparison, I’ll rehash the Braves’ offseason moves. We lost a 30+ HR stellar-gloved 1B and a sure-handed 2B who’d hit well aside from his off-year in 2006, and replaced ‘em with youth and lack of MLB experience, but with upside potential from both. We upgraded our bullpen exponentially, but also lowered our number of options in our starting rotation and will depend heavily on a 40-year old to be our ace since we’re not sure what to expect from Tim Hudson, Chuck James, Mike Hampton and whomever our fifth starter would be.

I frankly don’t see how anybody could make a pick on who wins this division, right now. I’m more with DOB when he said it’ll be a low win total for the NL East champion, though, because I think the Mets, Phillies, Braves and Marlins will beat up on each other.

But calilng a winner, before spring training at least, to me, is a fruitless effort.

If Chuck James avoids the sophomore jinx and if Mike Hampton comes back and is just decent, and if Tim Hudson comes back to form, and John Smoltz is John Smoltz, then I’d go with the Braves. Only if all that happens.

Incidentally, for some old-school Braves fans…

…I had lunch today at Falcone’s Table, a restaurant/catering venture here in Alexandria, La., owned by non other than former Braves’ pitcher Pete Falcone. We hadda nice chat about the Braves from ‘82 on up, and baseball from that era, in general. Nice guy.

By Shaun

February 13, 2007 03:48 PM | Link to this

MBATL,

That is one thing that Howard supporters have on their side—he played more games.

I would argue that the difference in games played doesn’t make up for Pujols’s edge in offense (although some would disagree because Howard had more HR and RBI), defense and baserunning.

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 03:48 PM | Link to this

Hillbilly, just scrolled up to your post about the blog needing a cleaning out, and the core folks leaving. Listen, I hear you and agree entirely, but only so much I can do.

Here’s the thing, and I want to be clear: Without exaggerating whatsoever, I can honestly tell you that most days, especially recently, at least 90 percent of the really objectionable, grade-school, na-na-na-na-na-na stuff is coming from one person, and one person only. The addresses don’t lie. I don’t need to name him, you know who he is, when he’s not going by the 6-8 aliases he’s used in the past few days (those change all the time).

Anyway, I’d suggest people follow your advice and ignore him, but I know that’s difficult because he’s so persistent, constantly confrontational and severely personal in his attacks.

He writes stuff here that few, if any, of us adults here are accustomed to running into otherwise in their daily lives. If he ran into you on the street and said that stuff, you’d of course knock him on his butt. Which is why it can be jarring and cause knee-jerk reactions and angry rebuttals. It’s only natural.

But just know that’s exactly what he’s looking for. Always. Constantly. Needy, to say the very least.

It’s all predictable _ count on this post to draw several reactionary replies from him, under several different names. But there are telltale signs in virtually every post from him, one or more of the following:

Something about someone’s age and what they should or shouldn’t be doing at said age; more often than not, something implying someone is gay (how many others here stoop to that simpleton level of name-calling?); and something harshly critical of another person’s taste in music or movies, with an occasional opinion of his own designed to make you or me look base for our own tastes.

There are also frequent unsolicited (and wholly ignored) assessments and recommendations from him of what should or shouldn’t go on this blog, again usually under a witty screen name like “toomuchsh**onthisblog”).

Oh, and don’t forget he occasionally writes something bashing one of the regulars for spending so much time on the AJC blogs (which is the delicious irony, of course, in that he spends as much or more time on this blog than any of you, absolutely unable to go 24 hours without a post).

And, of course, the topper: When his hate-filled posts get deleted, he’ll challenge me by calling me coward or acting as though he’s fighting for a cause by alleging censorship by the AJC (that absurd charge is his 99.9 percent of the time, folks).

I’ll repeat here what I’ve said to him in a private e-mail (he rarely puts his actual e-mail on his posts anymore): Anytime, anywhere in the greater Atlanta area. You name the place, I’m there. We’ll talk. And you can say the things to me that you say here on the blog, only you can say them face to face, that way they’ll have more meaning. (THIS IS NOT A THREAT IN ANY WAY. I have to put that there because he’ll go whining to higher-ups at the paper, saying he feels threatened by the mean Braves writer).

You know where I’ll be for the next six weeks, if you’re down in Florida (and someone will be living in my house in Atlanta during that time, so don’t think about t-ping it or worse, strange dude).

You can come down to the railing at the ballpark at Disney and call out to me, I promise I’ll come right over to where you’re standing. I’ll be by the batting cage during batting practice most mornings, notepad in hand or backpocket. Or ask someone if you’re not comfortable shouting my name.

Or if you want to wait, you know where I’ll be for most home games during the season _ Turner Field. I’ll be down by the batting cage a lot during batting practice, or in the dugout talking to Cox or one of the players. But if you’ll e-mail me (dobrien@ajc.com) and let me know when you’ll be at a game, I’ll be glad to meet you anywhere at the ballpark.

So there. The coward thing, that’s a good one. A coward sits behind a keyboard insulting people and calling people “old as dirt” or “special friends” (I’m convinced someone called you that in school, because you’re the only person I know who uses that phrase on a regular basis). He tries to ruin the party for everyone else, just because he feels unwanted.

The “coward” thing _ coming from you, that one’s beyond ridiculous. and lowers the level of every bloggers’ IQ each time we read it. Please stop that one, get another schtick.

Now you know where to reach “the coward.” Or _ and I’m certain you’ll take this route _ just keep typing insults at everyone.

But I’ll let the good, well-meaning folks here know it’s just you hurling the mud these days, with an occasional dim-witted retort from someone just stopping by the blog.

Other than the occasional drive-by by the every-persecuted SJA (both of you are so mistreated and misunderstood, right?), it’s just you. I could push to have you banned, but I don’t have the time or care enough to argue the case.

But I do know that you can be banned for using others’ screen names, if someone wanted to pursue it.

As for “censorship” _ It ain’t real difficult to keep from having your posts deleted (strange how 45 of the last 51 posts deleted have been yours; why is it that others can avoid “censorship”?).

All we ask here on this blog is that you refrain from unprovoked attacks on others (that one right there proves to be impossible with you most days), avoid racial, ethnic or sexual slurs about others (if you get past the first rule, you almost always stumble on the second), and avoid posting using others’ screen names, like you did as Lew today (I know, I know, these are awfully stringent rules).

Buck up, big boy. Enjoy the Braves _ that is, assuming you do actually watch baseball games. it’s tough to tell because you so rarely say anything relevent about the Braves or the sport; instead you just attack others’ posts. That’s what you do. That’s your thing. That shows superior wit and insight, let me tell you.

OK, gotta work. Get back to your hobby, man of many names. And keep ringing up page hits. Even after you get deleted, the page hits are still there. It’s a beautiful thing.

By Shaun

February 13, 2007 03:53 PM | Link to this

MBATL,

Actually I think the evidence is most player hit better at home. (I know someone is going to bring up some players who didn’t but they’re the exception.)

Makes sense—players are probably more comfortable, used to the background, the lighting, etc. at home.

By ssiscribe

February 13, 2007 04:09 PM | Link to this

Catching up on the blog on what has turned into a rariety for me: A sick day. So THIS is what it feels like to sleep for two hours in the middle of the afternoon.

Ron: Pete Falcone? Wow. I remember the name. Was he on the 82 division champion team? Seem to recal him being here in 83, the year the Braves lost a 6 1/2 game lead in August to the hated Dodgers (still remember Erine Johnson’s call of a Sunday game in LA down the stretch, a game the Braves led by three entering the bottom of the ninth, only to lose on a R.J. Reynolds’ squeeze bunt with Gene Garber on the mound: “They’re squeezing … and the Dodgers win, the Dodgers win.”).

Really cool story about Falcone. A guy on those teams, Terry Harper, grew up in my hometown of Douglasville. He was a reserve in the early 80s (think he made one appearance in the 82 NLCS, as a pinch runner), but actually played a lot in 85, starting in left field, hit 17 homers (including one in the 13th to keep the epit 19-inning loss to the Mets on July 4-5 going). He was a nice guy who would say hey to us during BP. Being in middle school, I thought that was the coolest thing under the sun.

Lew: Hope you’re not flying through the thunderstorms that have rolled through here as you wing your way from Vermont to the Evil Empire. And don’t let you-know-who get to you; ignore that pest. Thanx again for the artwork; can’t wait to see it!

DOB: Do you know if Liberty is required to keep the Braves for any amount of time before putting them on the market? I just have a feeling Liberty eventually will flip the Braves, but didn’t know legally if it must wait a certain amount of time.

Personally, I like the fact the ownership thing has happened. I know there was a May deadline before the tax laws changed, so it was going to happen soon, anyway. Now, if MLB will just review it and get around to approving it by Opening Day, we’ll all then being to watch and see if there will be some extra cash added to the payroll, to help with locking up AJ and/or trying to bolster the team down the stretch.

I’m outta here. The sickly Scribe abides.

—30—

By brent

February 13, 2007 04:11 PM | Link to this

While I think most all of us are concerned about the payroll, I think that we will see in the coming years, that our payroll will allow us to field a competitive team, once the big contracts get funneled.

Ideally, the $80 million figure has become a baseline, and at the least, this number will be allowed to inflate over time.

As much as we’re concerned about losing Andruw, just think of what can potentially be done with the money that will free up if he walks.

I do realize, however, that salaries have been inflating; but nonetheless, when these big signings don’t work out, players often become available and teams are often willing to pay part of their contracts to dump the salary.

The Braves will be fine. I’m not happy that we had to be sold to Liberty Media, but I am at least happy that the deal has been consummated, and we can now start to move forward.

By Reality Check

February 13, 2007 04:12 PM | Link to this

Just my opinion, but I would guess that said sick individual is gonna keep right on doing what he’s doing so long as he can provoke an ego-stroking 24-paragraph response from the blogmaster.

Like the great Harry Truman, DOB, you should simply refuse to get down in the gutter with a guttersnipe. Your silence will take away the only thing that validates him.

By TennesseePaul

February 13, 2007 04:15 PM | Link to this

So since there’s no history to go by I/you can’t say the Braves bullpen is better.

But there is enough street credit for each individual to allow ESPN to rank the Braves Bullpen as #1 in the majors. Not bad. I don’t typically like ESPN, but even they agree, Braves are up. And no Steroid convictions in the whole bunch either.

By The Grinch

February 13, 2007 04:15 PM | Link to this

Man, Dave, that was an epic post. And here I was thinking you just didn’t care. You can bet Terrence Moore wouldn’t have written that.

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 04:19 PM | Link to this

Reality check, that’s my only response. It’s been quite a while since I gave one, but I just wanted any of those out there who’ve not been around a while to know where we all stand in this matter. Moving on now.

By Lew

February 13, 2007 04:25 PM | Link to this

Ten Paul-I’m on my way out the door right now. The Whiny Little Jerk won’t ever get to me or drive me away. Have no fear. I just don’t want to blog with my son’s dial up. I’ll be back (with artwork in hand) at the end of the month. BTW-I’ll be near that same dugout rail at Disney if the multiple personality jerk wants a piece of my OLD butt, too. Later Braves loving people.

By Reality Check

February 13, 2007 04:27 PM | Link to this

Good. And by the way, it was a very lucid, well-constructed response. Much better than they party who provoked it deserves.

Any chance you could give Robert a similar verbal beat-down? And ANY wisdom you can impart to convince Shaun to ease up on the statistical saturation bombing would be deeply appreciated.

By NYM

February 13, 2007 04:30 PM | Link to this

Tennpaul-C’mon now, ESPN says crap all the time. Who’s gonna win this and that. Last time I checked no one can predict the future(Not even ESPN) . I can understand your optimism as a fan but be real here. You’re being selective. You even said you normally don’t pay attention to ESPN but I guess for this one moment you will. As I said before as a unit they haven’t proven anything regardless of their individual numbers…..We’ll see

By Metropolitan Man

February 13, 2007 04:31 PM | Link to this

Honest questions???? Does this mean payroll will increase??? Are the braves moving??? Are they selling to get the Tax right off and have the papers signed by 4/15/2007, or making good and doing it before the season starts???? Can anybody answer these?

By TennesseePaul

February 13, 2007 04:32 PM | Link to this

OK, I have a question, more or less I’m seeking so help on a matter… I don’t know if DOB or any local ATLians can help with this but here it goes.
I need to find a good place, (good atmosphere, fun, not an out-of-control place) in Atlanta that can accommodate a party of about 15 adults. I have no idea where would be a good place.
I was thinking a Comedy Club might be cool, but I don’t know of any Comedy Clubs in the area, and if they are good. I also was thinking a Blues Club or Jazz Club might be a good spot, but again, I don’t know of any or which would be the better one. It’s near impossible to plan a part in Atlanta from Long Beach, but I got to get one planed soon. If anyone has suggestions I’d love to hear them.

By MGL

February 13, 2007 04:33 PM | Link to this

DOB - Do you anticipate any changes in the Spring Training routine from years past? I know that the WBC caused difficulties, but it still seems that the Braves ST was more like Spring Break. Lots of golf, veterans not having to go to away games and ride the bus, etc. It seemed that last year, there were few games if any that the projected starting lineup was in at the same time. Looks like this year, at least the starting infield needs a lot of work together to get timing down, etc. Any thoughts?

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 13, 2007 04:44 PM | Link to this

DOB, I know you can’t control the bad apples. While it’s easy for me to ignore the bad ones, It’s just a crying shame that a certain 3 regular, well-respected, and very entertaining bloggers refuse to grace us with their presence now, while the instigator continues to sit here in his underwear all day reading retorts, laughing, scratching his nuts or whatever, and waiting to pick his next victim to run off, so he can watch everybody squirm. If those 3 exiled bloggers are reading this, consider it a personal call out from the Hillbilly. Get back on the train. Blog with us. We’ve got a World Series to win. Don’t make us send Grinch and Tomahawkin’ to your house hopped up on hunch-punch, knockin’ on your door like Jehova’s Witnesses to recruit you back.

By Oliver Stone

February 13, 2007 04:52 PM | Link to this

Bet you didn’t know I like the Braves as much as I like movies. Allow me to direct your attention to some of my thoughts about the team:

Regarding our chances of winning the Eastern Division - the DOORS are wide open. Let’s be optimistic.

The Braves need to stop PLATOONing left fielders and find one who can play regularly.

I hope the WALL STREET types who just purchased the team will in fact increase the payroll.

My all-time favorite Brave was Otis NIXON. My least favorite was Doyle ALEXANDER.

I miss Vinny Castilla. Did you know that he was BORN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY? He really was.

I hate the garish red uniforms that the Braves can be found wearing on ANY GIVEN SUNDAY.

The Braves need to find pitching prospects wherever they may be. Let’s get some scouts down to EL SALVADOR.

Wickman has really impressed me. He has the makeup of a closer: A NATURAL BORN KILLER.

Finally, don’t expect too much out of Chipper Jones this year. He gets hurt more often than Jeff Friggin’ Kent.

By The Grinch

February 13, 2007 04:56 PM | Link to this

If drunk Jehova’s Witnesses knock on the door with foam tommahawks, would anyone be able to hear it? Inquiring minds want to know.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 13, 2007 04:58 PM | Link to this

You’re the weak and I’m the tyranny of evil men. But I trying real hard, Ringo. I’m trying real hard to be the shepard.

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 05:00 PM | Link to this

MetroMan, I don’t know that anybody can answer those questions, other than, Are the Braves moving. No, under no circumstances. Not even a consideration.

No one knows how soon the owners will or won’t approve of the deal, and only the prospective new ownership group can say if they have any intentions of raising or decreasing payroll, and they’re not talking yet.

I just got off phone with Schuerholz, and he assured me he’s not privy to anything regarding the sale and LIberty’s plans once it’s finalized, but that MLB has been open about its wishes and requirment of assurances from the new group that the Braves will continue to be run much the way they’ve been run for so long.

Selig and other MLB officials have said several times recently that the Braves are the “gold standard” for how they want organizations run _ a strong team that relies on player development rather than just throwing money at every problem, etc. And they’ll want assurances that the front office will continue to be run similarly under new ownership, before the deal is approved.

But no, your questions aren’t going to be answered by anyone just yet.

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 05:03 PM | Link to this

Oliver Stone, that was strong.

By TennesseePaul

February 13, 2007 05:07 PM | Link to this

You’re being selective…as a unit they haven’t proven anything regardless of their individual numbers

The Mets outfield has a new member. So, as a unit, the Mets outfield hasn’t proven anything. And the Mets Bullpen saw some parts leave and one get busted for cheating. So, as a unit, they haven’t proven anything. And, the Mets rotation is different than last year. So, as a unit, they haven’t proven anything.

Or do you wanna compare by position, because that’s just about all any team could do at this time. That’s all any analyst does at this time, even ESPN. And so far, ESPN ranks them top. Fox and SI are putting them up there as well. It’s because these individuals have the potential to be the best unit in the league. It’s all potential now anyways right? Not an inning has been played…

By Head Coach

February 13, 2007 05:40 PM | Link to this

Francoeur had what I call a real jekyll & hyde season. He had all those clutch hits with runners on and yet….. of all major league everyday players he ranked dead last in OBP. He was responsible for more outs made than any other player in the majors last season( of course he played every game to). If the kid can apply the same concentration with the bases empty that he does with runners on , he should be fine in 2007.

By AdirondackDave

February 13, 2007 05:42 PM | Link to this

DOB or anybody — What is the value of the Braves as figured in this final deal, anybody know? Months ago I heard the figure $400m mentioned. It seems we would have to know the exact amount of TW stock involved to get it exactly.

By Show me the $$$

February 13, 2007 05:53 PM | Link to this

Value of Braves - see this article found on Forbes.com website…

Time Warner Gives Atlanta Braves The Chop

After more than a year of negotiations, Time Warner has finally unloaded the Atlanta Braves and $1 billion in cash to Liberty Media Corp. in exchange for stock.

Time Warner (nyse: TWX - news - people ) has been shopping around the Braves for some time, to shake off non-core assets. In order to make the team more enticing to potential buyers, Time Warner has cutback the team’s payroll. As a result, last season was the first year in 15 years the Braves failed to win the National League East pennant.

The deal is still subject to Major League Baseball approval, which requires a vote of the leagues owners, who have traditionally been wary of corporate ownership.

Liberty Media (nasdaq: LCAPA - news - people ) agreed to turn over one-third of its share in Time Warner, or 60 million of its 171 million shares. The figure reduces Liberty’s ownership of Time Warner to 2.6% from nearly 4%. In addition, Liberty receives Leisure Arts, which are a group of Time Inc. craft magazines valued at $22 million.

The companies valued the Braves at $460 million, a little steep based on Forbes’ valuation of $406 million. Last year the Braves had revenues of $172 million and player expenses totaling $91 million. The Braves are the 12th most valuable team in baseball, in part because debt represents only 7% of the team’s value, the third lowest such figure in the league.

Time Warner acquired the team in the 1990’s when it purchased Turner Broadcasting, who bought the team in 1976 for $12 million.

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 06:55 PM | Link to this

Show me, the main reason they have so little debt is the great deal they got on the stadium, which was built with Olympic funds. Braves paid for part of the renovation to turn it into a baseball stadium afterward, and pay a very reasonable lease.

Other teams would KILL to have such a deal. Of course, the circumstances were so highly unusual because of the Olympics factor. Teams like the Giants have to draw huge crowds and maximize revenue streams just to break even because of the huge debt they have on ballparks funded mostly privately.

By N8

February 13, 2007 06:55 PM | Link to this

Alright DOB!

Now ya done gone and offended me.

24 paragraphs! Really? Don’t you know that ALL of your attention should be directed at answering my important questions?

Just kidding man. I’m just glad that somebody FINALLY outdid me in the “longest post EVER” category.

Nice job. LOL!

By Metropolitan Man

February 13, 2007 07:25 PM | Link to this

Wow, I know my METS fans will kill me but I hope the braves payroll does increase so we can even out this playing field. I absolutely love seeing the METS beat the braves but want it done with the braves best suited guys money can by or the farm can produce. That way there is no excuses when 1 team dominates. When the METS were losing they just sucked and had bad management. There is nothing worse than losing and then crying broke. Get that paper braves and never speak of being broke again….hopefully. Then all we can argue about is the talent and the players, not just because you guys have more mooolah!!!!!

By james

February 13, 2007 07:31 PM | Link to this

DOB, are you sure about your spring training invitees because i have not seen any announcement and camp is less than two days away. Also I read at foxsports.com that the braves might increase their payroll according to a source.

By J-MAN

February 13, 2007 07:34 PM | Link to this

It’s been about 2 months since I’ve posted and at that time we had traded for Sorinio we still had laroach and AOL Time Warner still owned the Braves, my how things have changed. Overall I like the fact we got another lefty in the BP but we did give up alot, the lead-off and both 2nd base and left field are up in the air. But I have confidence in Cox to find the best fit. Most importantly its great that the Braves have finally been sold just for the fact the players won’t have to worry about the whole team in a state of limbo thing going on and we can move forward. I hope that they’ll phony up and make this team a truly special one and not like them kids off American Idol kinda more like Special K—- that was a little Family Guy quote just then but my prediction all along was 94-68 and I’ll stick to that I just think Francour is just a little more optimistic than I am just by a game and also resign Andrew it will only be an extra 4-5 mil a season to keep him. Great to see the Police reunited and D.O.B great to see every one of yall!

By Stinky

February 13, 2007 07:35 PM | Link to this

DOB, Are you saying that I posted as Lew today?

By mr baseball

February 13, 2007 07:51 PM | Link to this

Not sure which will produce a more enjoyable reaction this year: the Braves returning to the top of the division or the Mets falling on their faces? As much as Braves fans are hoping for the former, the latter is more likely to occur. Expect the vast majority of the “experts” to predict a Mets repeat, and it will be amusing to assess their explanations (if any) as to why they went in the tank.

The Mets will be weaker in every aspect this season. With Pedro hurt, Glavine & Hernandez nearing AARP age and a whole bunch of ????? behind them, the starting pitching is suspect at best. The bullpen has lost Hernandez, Bradford & Oliver, and Mota is out for the first third of the season. They are one Billy Wagner arm injury away from having some real problems there.

Offensively, they got about as much as they could expect from all 7 of their returning starters. Maybe Wright and Reyes are going to hit .300+ w/200 RBI between them again, maybe not. Will Beltran revert to his mediocrity of ‘05? Probably not, but 41 HR, 116 RBI are tough numbers to duplicate. Green is just an average player now, and Valentin is below average at 2B. Alou can still hit, but how much is he gonna play?

The Braves have hugely upgraded the bullpen, should be better in the rotation w/the return of Hampton, and even without LaRoche & Giles, have a pretty good chance to approach the offensive numbers of last year. Shaun, a lot of your stats make sense, but you can’t rely on them to explain everything. Francouer is going to be a big-time player (if he isn’t one already) despite leading the universe in outs made last year. Last time I checked, you won games by scoring more runs than the other team, and no matter how many outs he made, he also had more than 100 RBI and was a terrific performer in the clutch & w/RISP. And he’s only going to get better.

The Phillies are a bigger threat to the Braves than the Mets, but they have about 3 positions with some concerns, and if Burrell doesn’t have a big season, Howard will be pitched around at a greater rate than Bonds. They can probably solve one problem area by trading Lieber, but may need help in the bullpen as well. Like the Mets, one injury to Gordon and you can kiss their hopes goodbye. The Braves found out last year what life is like without a closer, & a young team like the Marlins will find it very, very hard to contend if you can’t hold late leads.

The question is, can Braves fans tolerate another post-season flop? After last season, maybe so.

By Paul

February 13, 2007 08:07 PM | Link to this

Living in the NYC metro area, I’ve been listening to the camp reports on WFAN. I have one question.Who is going to pitch over 200 innings for the Mets this year? I don’t care how good the pen is and lineup may be. They might get away with it during the regular season but it will catch up with them in the post season. Hey Dave, what do you make of the whole Rivera contract with the Yanks? Many Yankee fans here are nervous. I know this would never happen but…..wouldn’t Bernie Williams look good in a Braves uniform?

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 08:07 PM | Link to this

James, they haven’t sent out an official release on the non-roster guys since the bunch in December, but I just confirmed that these top-prospect guys are also on it: Lillibridge, Salty, Escobar and Matt Harrison. It’s 12 or 13 in all, and they’ll put out the release tomorrow.

Other guy: Ask me a question about something other than your favorite topic _ yourself and your strange battles with me and various others _ and I might answer. But doubtful.

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 08:11 PM | Link to this

Oh, and James, as for the source saying Braves “might” increase their payroll … OK, what does that mean? Someone else today told me they might or “might not.” So where are we? Right back where we were last week, last month, waiting for someone to actually say, a team official or someone in new ownership group who knows.

Until then, it’s just entirely speculation, and trust me, you’ll hear plenty of it _ “They’re going to raise the payroll to $100 million,” and “They’re going to strip the payroll and start over,” and blah blah blah.

By james

February 13, 2007 08:17 PM | Link to this

dOB I believe that the true winning piece of the gonzalez trade was Lillbridge. I have a feeling renteria will be trade bait and that lillibridge is the future. Do you agree?

By Metropolitan Man

February 13, 2007 08:20 PM | Link to this

Hey Paul just a hunch but I have Perez and Maine projected to pitch 200 quality innings. I’m just being optimistic of course but because these guys are young and have healthy arms. Granted, if you are going to be an above average MLB pitcher you gotta get over the 200 innings mark consitently. While you’re at it, who is gonna pitch 200 innings for the braves this year.

Also just like C. Zabrano, Rivera is not going anywhere, besides he hasnt been the same since Arizona beat him in the WS. If Rivera leaves, another team will overpay for his past stankee glory status becasue Boston proved his tank is getting low.

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 08:25 PM | Link to this

One other thing for you music fans, going back to our top guitarists discussion. The new Rolling Stone devotes its cover story to “The Top 20 New Guitar Gods,” and their list includes some who got little or no mention by any of the bloggers here.

They didn’t put them in order, but their list includes the trio of John Mayer, Derek Trucks and John Frusciante, the three guys who are on the cover.

Mayer and Trucks got plenty of mentions by folks here on the blog, but not the Chili Peppers’ Frusciante (“The World’s Leading Psychedelic-Funk Guitar Visionary,” they call him.)

Among their others cited who I don’t remember getting much if any mention here: Wilco’s Nels Cline, My Morning Jacket’s Jim James and Carl Broemel, Tool’s Adam Jones, a woman named Kaki King, Radiohead’s Ed O’Brien and Jonny Greenwood, Luther Dickinson of North Misssissipp All-Stars, Moe’s Chuck Garvey and Al Schiner, Jack White of White Stripes, Mars Volta’s Omar Rodriguez-Lopez (The Extremist”) and a guy named Matt Pike who they call the “Stoner Metal Ruler” and compare to Hendrix. He’s been in bands Sleep and High On Fire.

A few on the list got a lot of mention here, including Warren Haynes, Pearl Jam’s McCready and Gossard, and Tom Morello of Rage and Audioslave.

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 08:30 PM | Link to this

James, I agree Lillibridge could be here as soon as a year from now, yes. In which case, Edgar would be tradeable, obviously. But that’s assuming Lillibridge has another strong season and makes big strides. Can’t count on it, but I think he’ll be here in two years, for sure.

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 08:32 PM | Link to this

James, it’s also possible Lillibridge could be moved to second base or the outfield if the Braves thought he’d help them more and/or sooner there. But I don’t think they’re thinking outfield right now, though he used to play there in college. He’s said to be a very good defensive infielder. Saw one scout called him a “poor man’s Brian Roberts” and projected a good career.

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 08:38 PM | Link to this

You guys will love hearing this: A Braves official just told me that Hudson, Lerew and T.J. Bohn (the outfielder they claimed off waivers from Seattle) were already at camp Tuesday _ two days before pitchers and catchers were due to report.

Makes me feel like a slacker for going down tomorrow.

I’d say that’s another good sign for Hudson, who really does seem serious about having a resurgent season.

By Stinky

February 13, 2007 09:07 PM | Link to this

DOB, The fact that you refuse to answer my question leads me to believe that you have knowingly misrepresented the facts in your diatribe against me.

I’ll swear on a stack of Bibles that I’m not the guy who posted as Lew today. I’m not always blameless. But I’ll also swear that most of the time, I’m not the guy that those posting as jjs and Lew attribute so much to. So I question your integrity when you make certain assertions that can’t possibly be true.

Also, I don’t rain on everybody. Just you and two or three adults who decided to mix it up. You magnify my contributions to the mayhem on this site because you’re too lazy to confirm ALL of your allegations. (You coward.)

And attribute every drop of criticism about your musical tangents to Stinky as well. I’m obviously the only one who doesn’t care for it.

In short, I’ll be your Boogey Man. Just don’t go crying to everybody when your special friends bite off more than you can stomach.

Oh, do you think we’ve got a shot at Carl Crawford?

By LT

February 13, 2007 09:21 PM | Link to this

Great Blog! I am stoked for the beginning of this season. More so I think than in the last 4-5 years. I think there’s a lot more story lines than previous years, will Franceour make the next step, KJ at second, who’s in left, Hamptons return, Welcome back Hudson, and will the bullpen meet the hype?

Personally, I believe the unsung story line of the year is gonna be Chuck J.

Is Feb not the worst month of the year? Let the Madness start and segue right into the opening crack of the bat!

You ain’t heard nothing till you’ve heard Luther Dickson not only jam on the guitar but the electric washboard. Also, you can call me gay but I still love Lily Allen!

By woogidy

February 13, 2007 09:23 PM | Link to this

OK I am going to comment, I read this blog every hour or so in the evening. DOB, I love the sarcasm. Funny stuff. Anyways, I have just one point to make. Why would Liberty buy (technically trade for) arguably the most successful franchise in all of sports in the free agent era, and change it all around? Again, I said arguably, but that isn’t the point I was trying to make, so keep the “only won one World Series” comments out of this. Also, enough with the trade talk, unless it’s realistic, like Matt Diaz for a low level prospect, or Pete Orr for a player to be named later. Let’s all try and figure out who the Player to be named will be.

By ernesto

February 13, 2007 09:56 PM | Link to this

Paul. Bernie’s a nice guy and all, but he’s a little spent don’t you think? Plus do you think he’d come play for the MLB minimum, b/c that’s probably what the Bravos would be offering. Plus considereing, he didn’t have an arm when he was in his prime, I’d rather have one of our young guys out there.

By Dr. Tchock

February 13, 2007 09:57 PM | Link to this

In addition to fully fitting the mad genius label on the guitar and pairing beautifully with Ed O’Brien in providing most of the guitar work for Radiohead, Jonny Greenwood is an award winning composer, a player of many instruments and one of the few masters in the world of a rare type of early electronic instrument called and Ondes Martenot.

Oh, and in case you don’t think he can rock too, he used to have to wear an arm brace (and still does occasionally) because of the intense strain he put on it while playing. And that CHUNK-CHUNK sound in the song “Creep” started as his attempt to sabotage the song because he hated it.

As far as the Braves, I’m definitely stoked about the start of spring training and the introduction some sort of performance estimates in how we are assessing these players. I’m really looking forward to how the various moves have changed (hopefully, and I think almost definitely, improved) the Braves for this year. I will miss watching Laroche, though. Should be a fun year.

By Dr. Tchock

February 13, 2007 10:01 PM | Link to this

Also, does anyone else think it’s cute that Stinky expects DOB to go through all the trouble of getting the details on which exact names have been made pungent at any given time?

Don’t complain about someone noticing a trend you set.

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 10:24 PM | Link to this

Tchock, I put OK Computer, Kid A and The Bends on my Ipod. Hadn’t listened to any of them in quite a while. And I’m working out the other day and a few of those songs came on and … damn, it’s easy to forget how incredible that band was/is. They just lost me a little bit later with a couple of albums, but I’m eagerly awaiting the new one, since it’s supposedly going to be more like the older stuff.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 13, 2007 10:25 PM | Link to this

DOB, I know this has been asked 10,000 times before but I’m hoping with Spring Training only a day away you may have heard something. What happens if a guy like Bohn goes into camp and “wows” Cox? Does that mean Langerhans and Diaz’s days are numbered? On a scale of 1 to 10 what are the chances one of them is traded before Opening Day. And, also, will the Baldelli talks be reopened since I read today that the Rays are kind of between a rock and a hard place with BJ Upton?

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 10:29 PM | Link to this

I should be packing, and instead I’ve watched Texas Tech beat Texas A&M (second time this season) and now watching the end of this Va Tech-UNC overtime game, hoping that Tech beats UNC for second time this season. Amazing.

And Ga Tech beat FSU to end their nearly two-year losing streak on opponents’ courts. Good night for Tech schools so far.

By Stinky

February 13, 2007 10:30 PM | Link to this

Dr. Tchock, If DOB’s gonna write it, it should be true. Right? He’s making a statement and should have the stones to stand behind that statement. Right?Or does he get a special pass from you because you don’t know the difference?

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 10:31 PM | Link to this

Game over. Va Tech beats UNC at Chapel Hill. Let the pigeons loose!

By Dr. Tchock

February 13, 2007 10:33 PM | Link to this

Yeah, although some people tried to say that Hail to the Thief (the most recent other than Yorke’s solo album) was basically OK Computer II. I didn’t buy that, but that’s the impression some people have gotten. But I’ve always seen pretty drastic differences in all of the albums, so who knows what the next will be like. It is easy to forget how good they are, especially because I can see how it’s not easy for a lot of people to listen to them all the time.

I also thought that the list did a pretty decent job of picking out a few that might not always make it onto the huge, all-time lists at this point, but who deserve some ink.

Since we so often talk about what’s already happened, what other bands or albums are people hoping/looking forward to hearing more from in the near-ish future?

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 10:38 PM | Link to this

What makes this self-absorbed, unhinged dude think I was talking about him? If I’m not mistaken, no one was named in my diatribe of a post earlier tonight, other than Lew and SJA….

Tchock, you’re right, though, it is kinda cute. Pitiful, but cute.

later

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 10:41 PM | Link to this

Robert (JIB), just saw your question about Bohn. I think he’s got at least an outside chance. He’ll get a look this spring, and if he impresses, who knows? It’d sure make it a lot easier to trade one of the other OFs if he does. The guy’s been a real good player in the minors and is supposedly a pretty good outfielder.

By Trav

February 13, 2007 11:01 PM | Link to this

DOB I enjoy this blog a lot. I’m sure im not alone in wishing you would break out the ban stick on some of the more annoying folks. Hit’em where it hurts…their IP address. I mean if someone doesnt enjoy this blog and what its about, basically the Braves and good music, move the heck on! Anyway I look forward to your coverage of the Braves in the coming season.

Peace

Trav

By Bruce

February 13, 2007 11:30 PM | Link to this

Dave, Going back to your comments early afternoon today on Francouer’s close and late stats… what is your view on why he is better in that situation… is it that close and late pitchers throw more strikes or make more mistake pitches in high pressure? I can understand that Jeff would be more focussed, but it seems like the pitching might be different too.

It would be a great question to ask Terry and Jeff, even if you can not directly tell us the answer if it would give away inside information.

Good packing and Safe travels and thanks for being there for us. REALLY looking forward to reading your articles and hearing your perspective. Thanks, Bruce

By flbravesgirl

February 13, 2007 11:34 PM | Link to this

Unfortunately for the players and everyone else expecting balmy weather down here, it looks like we’re about get what amounts to an arctic blast by Florida standards. Pack a jacket, DOB.(I’m sure it won’t bother Lew, coming from Vermont). Really looking forward to reports from spring training, your first impressions of everyone, etc.

By Stinky

February 13, 2007 11:35 PM | Link to this

“What makes this self-absorbed, unhinged dude think I was talking about him? If I’m not mistaken, no one was named in my diatribe of a post earlier tonight, other than Lew and SJA….”

DOB, I did call you a coward so I assumed you were talking to me. Or did you loose track of that because you’ve been busted again. Come on. More spin. More fibs.

By jason

February 13, 2007 11:39 PM | Link to this

all right, am I going to be the first to make a plea for Bernie Williams?? The guy hit 281 last year, is a team leader and winner and I would think could play a nice left field. Look at the other options!!!!!

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 13, 2007 11:53 PM | Link to this

Jason, Bernie isn’t coming to Atlanta. He only wants to play in New York. He has had offers from, what I heard, 12 different teams. All of them offering him a guaranteed contract. He has turned them all down. He wants to end his career as a Yankee. The fact is Beernie still has something in the tank but he is a 4th outfielder. We have plenty of those who are a lot cheaper than what Bernie would cost.

By David O'Brien

February 13, 2007 11:55 PM | Link to this

flbravesgirl, you officially just saved me whatever it would’ve cost me to buy a gore-tex rain jacket in orlando. I completely forgot to pack that until you just mentioned the weather down there. thanks much….

Bruce, I don’t know that there really is an explanation for Francoeur’s close-and-late homers and two-out RBIs, other than the obvious: The guy has had a penchant for big hits and big plays throughout his athletic career, including his absurdly high interception totals as a prep all-america defensive back for two-time state football champion Parkview High.

McCann says even back in summer travel leagues, Francoeur got the big hits, and everybody always expected him to. But to be able to do it at this level, especially a guy with a .300 OBP, it’s impressive. It’ll be really interesting to see what he can do if the Braves ever advance deep in the postseason with him on the team. Has the makings of a big-game performer, for sure.

By jason

February 13, 2007 11:59 PM | Link to this

Robert, I can see what you mean with Bernie. I just am having a real tough time thinking about having to stomach watching Langerhans continually strike out and having to hear about how great he is defensively!! I just can’t handle it again!! Maybe Wilson wins the job?!

By TennesseePaul

February 14, 2007 12:23 AM | Link to this

I’d have to say that Amnesiac is the most amazing album Radiohead has done. I don’t say this lightly as I absolutely love OK Computer and the Bends. It’s a close race between them all, but Amnesiac edges them all out. Amnesiac covered the rock along with the Jazz and electronica.
It was originally part of a double disc with Kid A but they opted to go with seperate releases. I’ve heard that Kid A was written as a perspective of the first cloned child. Amnesiac would be the follow up. Take a listen to Pyramid Song again. The piano in that song is so frickin good. I might be wrong is another great cut. Hell, I love every track on there. They flow seamlessly into the next; picking up the tempos and changes so well. Watching that tour was so amazing.
I enjoy every album they’ve released, but every time I hear Amnesiac I have to just listen to it all the way through. I can’t make myself skip a single track. Also, an interesting note, Spinning Plates on Amnesiac is I will on Hail to the Theif backwards. The song has incredible melodies no matter which way you play it. Christopher O’Riley did a great job translating the music.

By DonCoburleone

February 14, 2007 12:44 AM | Link to this

2 Keys to this season… Mike Hampton and Chuck James…

By DonCoburleone

February 14, 2007 12:55 AM | Link to this

Chipper Jones and Jeff Francoeur on offense are the keys…

By Head Coach

February 14, 2007 01:02 AM | Link to this

Metroman , Smoltz and Hudson barring injury will both log in excess of 200 innings this season. How many innings James goes is up to Cox and McDowell. Jmaes has averaged roughly 150 innings the past three seasons. Hampton and Davies ? thats a mystery that only time will tell. Ideally you want a rotation that will eat up 1000 to 1050 innings and keep the bullpen from being overworked. Like I have said before , this rotation has much to prove.

By Head Coach

February 14, 2007 01:33 AM | Link to this

As far as the position players go , its a deep versatile group. Assuming who I believe will make the roster , the Braves will have six that bat right handed , four that bat left handed and three switch hitters. Eight can play the outfield , nine can play the infield. It’s a solid group that Schuerholz and Cox have put together.

By The Grinch

February 14, 2007 01:36 AM | Link to this

Wow, sounds like Rolling Stone has gone even further into the tank than I thought. That’s much worse than the Dixie chicks getting all the Grammy’s; at least they were right. With the exception of Derrick Trucks and John Mayer, those guitarists make up the Phil Rizzuto Award for least deserving members of the HOF. The “Hey, I play guitar too” members of popular bands who just didn’t get their props because…maybe they didn’t deserve them. Sure, they’re all good guitarists. Hell, I’d love to have any of them to start a band. Could I play circles around all of them? No way; only about a third. Guitar gods? White-boy, please. Rolling Stone has officially become the Uncle Tom of music magazines. Goodbye to the death of an era. BTW, I just drank a 12-pack of Guiness and watched “Beerfest.” It’s just about as stupid as a movie can possibly be, but humerous nonetheless.

By The Grinch

February 14, 2007 02:16 AM | Link to this

5 songs into Queen’s “Live at Wembley Stadium” DVD; Brian May deserves “Guitar God” status. Number one, make it so.

Jason, it’s all about HOW Langerhaans strikes out; he almost crushes it every time.

By The Grinch

February 14, 2007 02:48 AM | Link to this

OK, one more post and I promise I’ll go to bed. The Chargers are interviewing the Falcons’ newly hired DC for their HC spot. Lovely. Have you all read Carlos Zambrano’s comments on ESPN? I urge you to. This guy represents everything that’s wrong with sports today. I hope the Cubs and everyone else kicks this a$$-clown to the curb. G’night.

By Bryan

February 14, 2007 08:05 AM | Link to this

Dave,

check out Christopher O’Riley’s “true love waits” and “hold me to this” they are classical piano versions of radiohead songs. This is the same O’Riley who hosts one of the classical shows on NPR. It’s a pretty amazing piece of work!

Also, if your felling a little like some dub music - the Easy Star All Stars have a great reggae dub cover of Ok Computer. As stupid as it sounds - its pretty freaking awesome!

Sprang Trainin starts tomorrow! (sort of)

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 09:08 AM | Link to this

Shaun, a lot of your stats make sense, but you can’t rely on them to explain everything. Francouer is going to be a big-time player (if he isn’t one already) despite leading the universe in outs made last year. Last time I checked, you won games by scoring more runs than the other team, and no matter how many outs he made, he also had more than 100 RBI and was a terrific performer in the clutch & w/RISP. And he’s only going to get better.

I don’t deny that Francouer is likely to become a star. The only tool lacking is plate discipline and that should improve enough to make him a star.

And look at the evidence—the teams that are the best at avoiding outs are the teams that score the most runs, so it does matter how often the players make outs.

Again, this is sounding like a broken record, but RBI are very context-dependent. Francouer drove in a lot of runs mostly because he had a lot of opportunities to drive in runs. He came to the plate 190 times with runners in scoring position. He hit behind Chipper, Andrew, LaRoche, McCann—all high on-base guys.

Ruben Sierra, in 1993, hit .233 AVG/.288 OBP/.390 SLG in 692 plate appearances. His OPS was 15 percent below the league average, but he was a corner outfielder, which makes it even worse. I don’t know how you could say that was a good year. But he drove in 101 runs. Mostly because he hit behind Rickey Henderson for much of the year. He only avoided an out 177 times out of 515 plate appearances!! But he was able to drive in over 100 runs because he came to the plate 213 times with runners in scoring position.

Francouer did hit well with runners in scoring position (maybe because the pitcher is forced to throw him a fat strike in those situations?) but none of what we would define as clutch numbers look all that great.

I do agree though that he’s likely to get better and become a star.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 14, 2007 09:20 AM | Link to this

Flowers flyin’ ‘cross the room,

Vases smashed against the floor.

Said, “I’d rather be alone.”

“Take your chocolates and go home.”

Be My Va—-len—-tine

Be My Va—-len—-tine.

By KC

February 14, 2007 09:34 AM | Link to this

DonCoburleone:

Personally, I think the biggest key is Tim Hudson.

Obviously, chuck James is important. If he can match last season’s ERA, then over a full season with the bullpen and a solid offense to support him… he’ll win at least 15 games.

Mike Hampton is important, but we can’t expect too much out of him in the first half. I’m optimistic about his return, but I think we have to plan on a 1st half ERA of well over 4.00 in the first half. I’m just hoping can post an ERA well under 4.00 in the second half, and be sharp and ready to go for October.

James is the new kid on the block, and Hampton has to re-acclimate after a major surgery… so Hudson’s the guy on the spot in my view. He’s a healthy, and he’s a proven veteran winner. He needs to come through.

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 09:44 AM | Link to this

KC,

As long as the bullpen performs as expected, they get the same out of Smoltz and James, and they get something out of the bottom three starters, run prevention should be fine.

By Robert

February 14, 2007 09:57 AM | Link to this

That picture on the Braves page - “under new ownership” - showing that stupid SOB Cox grinning ear to ear wearing a division champion hat - that is enough to make me wanna vomit into my cornflakes

Turning World Series champions into division champions since 1985

Let it end after 2007 and I can write it all off as a bad joke.

Renew him after 2007 and I will swear off the Braves for life.

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 10:06 AM | Link to this

Robert,

Is that what Jim Leyland did this season, turn WS champs into merely a division and pennant winner? Has Joe Torre done the same thing with a number of his Yankee teams? Is that the way we should look at things?

By ernesto

February 14, 2007 10:14 AM | Link to this

Shaun, Shaun, Shaun…you should know better.

By Eric

February 14, 2007 10:30 AM | Link to this

The Braves will finish 1st. Everybody is assuming that Davies is going to be bad. I dont know why. He was good his rookie season and he was hurt last year. He is only 23 years old. I dont see why everyone who gets hurt gets a pass and when Davies does people say trade him. He is going to be 50 times better than James. James could be a good reliever but that is all. He just doesnt have enough pitches. I expect a somphmore slump this year from James. Back to why the Braves will finsh 1st. The Mets have no pitching besides Glavine. Pedro wont be back till after the all-star break and by then they will be to far behind. Philles can not pitch in that ballpark. No one can and no one ever will. If you cant pitch well then you will not win 90 games and it is going to take at least 90 games to win the east. The Marlins could of challenged the Braves if wasnt for their stupid owner. If they wouldnt of fired Joe Girardi they probably would win the east. After May they had the best record in the east last year, with a 14 million dollar payroll. I not going to even waste me time talking about the Nationals.

By TennesseePaul

February 14, 2007 10:33 AM | Link to this

Payne: He hit behind Chipper, Andrew, LaRoche, McCann—all high on-base guys

Couple of things. LaRoche isn’t typically a high OBP. Or not what you defined earlier as a good OBP. Francoeur, as you posted earlier, had an OBP of .339 in the clutch. You alluded to this not being good. For half the season LaRoche was getting on at around .300. But that doesn’t matter so much. The bigger thing is, Francoeur hit infront of LaRoche, not behind him. LaRoche was the 7th hitter. L-R-L.
The second thing is, it’s Andruw.

By Porkins

February 14, 2007 10:42 AM | Link to this

T-Paul, Pyramid Song is one of Radiohead’s best. Amnesiac is a lot better than Hail to the Thief, half of which isn’t even listenable.

By KC

February 14, 2007 10:46 AM | Link to this

Shaun: I agree that under the circumstances you described, the Braves pitching will be “fine”. After all, the Mets were 3rd in NL ERA last year almost solely on the stregth of their bullpen. No reason we can’t do the same.

But the difference between “fine”, and great… is Tim Hudson.

If Hudson is sharp, this rotation will probably be as good as any in the league. That’s certianly what I’m hoping for.

By Robert

February 14, 2007 10:49 AM | Link to this

“Is that what Jim Leyland did this season, turn WS champs into merely a division and pennant winner”

Yes Shaun - I mean, last March there were so many people who had the Tigers penciled in as the AL WS team

Shaun, even IF Torre or Leyland were a numbnuts, why would that somehow be an excuse or a justification for the Braves to hold on to this numbnuts

It’s like saying “Cox is an idiot. But maybe someone else has an idiot manager too so we should go ahead and keep him” - that’s, well, idiotic

Just look at that picture, man. That is stupidity personified. I wanna know - are his ears just folded up under the hat, or did they have to safety pin them to his head?

Shaun (and the rest of you) - Do we EVER hear the Yankees talking about their streak of division titles (9 in a row, and 11 of 13, and they actually have another team that’s CONSISTANTLY good in the same division). WHY is it that the Yankees dont crow about division titles? WHY is it that Torre’s butt is on the hot seat and he’s not walking around in a divison title hat with a “my-iq-is-single digits” grin on his face?

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 10:50 AM | Link to this

Robert,

I know I shouldn’t engage you in this discussion, but here goes:

Have you ever explained why Cox should get all the blame for the Braves record in 19 games a year in the post-season (maximum) but should not get any credit for 162 games a year in the regular season?

Isn’t it at least a possibility that even if Cox is a big reason for the Braves’ post-season failures that he’s also a reason why the Braves are even in the post-season?

By Thrillhouse44

February 14, 2007 11:09 AM | Link to this

Oh man, first we fuel Stinky’s fire and now Robert’s? It’s safe to say the length of this blog is going to double in the next 2 hours.

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 11:11 AM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

Okay, maybe LaRoche isn’t a particularly high on-base guy. But the other three were excellent-good. You can’t tell me that that did not have a whole lot to do with Francouer’s RBI total. If someone like Diaz had been hitting in Francouer’s spot, he probably would have driven in 150 runs.

By MGL

February 14, 2007 11:15 AM | Link to this

Hopefully Robert keeps his promise and swears off the Braves for life when they renew Cox for 2008. Then maybe we only have to put up with this for another year.

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 11:15 AM | Link to this

Shaun (and the rest of you) - Do we EVER hear the Yankees talking about their streak of division titles (9 in a row, and 11 of 13, and they actually have another team that’s CONSISTANTLY good in the same division). WHY is it that the Yankees dont crow about division titles? WHY is it that Torre’s butt is on the hot seat and he’s not walking around in a divison title hat with a “my-iq-is-single digits” grin on his face?

Could it be the Braves have done it the “old-fashion way”—through player development? Don’t you think that’s something to be proud of?

By TennesseePaul

February 14, 2007 11:24 AM | Link to this

Payne: How can you say Diaz would have had more RBIs if he were hitting in Francoeurs spot? What’s to say he wouldn’t have the same.. or even less. Francoeur did a great job hitting in those spots. From looking at Francoeurs numbers, it appears he struggled the most on the road with no runners on.

By Robert

February 14, 2007 11:30 AM | Link to this

“Have you ever explained why Cox should get all the blame for the Braves record in 19 games a year in the post-season (maximum) but should not get any credit for 162 games a year in the regular season?”

Shaun, go back and look at the rosters the Braves have had. How many years did their rotation read Maddux, Glavine, Smoltz - just to start?

Now tell me - Just exactly how much CREDIT should ANYBODY get when a team that starts three HOF pitchers wins 90 games and beats all of four other teams for a division title

Or do you think that Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz would have no clue how to play if not for the donkey in the dugout?

You give me, or you, or anybody for that matter, teams with those rosters, and theyv are gonna win a bunch of games, and, if put in the NL East, a bunch of consecutive divison titles - This is not a major accomplishment or even reaching potential, much less overachieving

And yet those same teams flounder every year in the postseason.

OBVIOUSLY, the available talent is not being utilizied to full ability (or would you try to contend that Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz just werent that good?)

Basically, the Braves teams have been too talented to fail in the regular season - the competition they face as a whole just isnt anywhere near as good - even THO the Braves have donkeybrain in the dugout. Get to the postseason where the talent is something approaching equal, and the Braves are outhustkled, outthought, outplanned, and outplayed - EVERY year. Look for the common denominator and you have the source to blame.

It’s either John Smoltz od El Burro

Look at what Burro did in Toronto before coming to Atlanta and you can see he was already showing his nonability way back when

A multimillion dollar franchise loaded with HOF talent, blessed with good health and good coaches, and field operations are in the hands of a CRETIN. Worse, the fan base is vehement in wanting to keep the cretin in charge.

The all time travesty of sports.

By KYBrave

February 14, 2007 11:37 AM | Link to this

DOB* Long time blog reader, first time poster. I was just wondering if you would be giving daily updates from spring training. Wasn’t sure how that was going to work. Looking forward to a great year as a Braves fan, and being the real underdog for once.

By KC

February 14, 2007 11:38 AM | Link to this

Shaun: “Robert, I know I shouldn’t engage you in this discussion, but here goes…”

Shaun, you should have trusted your instincts! lol

By Robert

February 14, 2007 11:48 AM | Link to this

“Could it be the Braves have done it the “old-fashion way”—through player development? Don’t you think that’s something to be proud of? “

Shaun, I’m not sure how that follows from the question I asked about Torre, but I agree that the Braves should be proud of their track record for player development. They should also be proud of the fact that they have generally made great decisions on whom to keep and who to dress up in high heels and pumps and shop to the competition. I have never said that the Braves havent done a good job in these regards.

Heck, I have even lauded Cox for the work he did in this field as GM. If Cox has ANY baseball-related skill, it wouold appear to be in identifying good prospects/players. He has zero ability to teach them anything, or to make them better, or to use them in a game situation - but he recognizes talent from the front office.

My question becomes this. You have a great farm system, with good scoutsm, and quality teachers. The system works to produce lots of home-grown baseball talent. So when these young whipper-snappers are ready for the show, why do you put them under the care of the stupidest human being you can find?

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 11:51 AM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

I think the clutch numbers indicate Francouer may be a good situational hitter (still to early to tell for sure as we don’t have a large enough sample).

Something interesting—he had 6 intentional walks with runners in scoring position. Looks like pitchers were a little more scared of him than they should have been, which probably had something to do with his good clutch numbers.

Francouer obviously didn’t hit particularly well overall (.260/.293/.449) so it seems his good RISP numbers or clutch numbers are either a fluke, are because he’s a good situational hitter or because pitchers were more careful than they need to be, or a combination of some or all these things. Hard to say based on the limited number of plate appearances we have to go by. I don’t think we should assume anything. I shouldn’t assume all of his RBI were due to the guys in front of him just like you shouldn’t assume he has an innate ability to drive in runs. Hopefully both will be true as soon as next season.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 14, 2007 11:52 AM | Link to this

*Shaun: “Robert, I know I shouldn’t engage you in this discussion, but here goes…”

Shaun, you should have trusted your instincts! lol*

Shaun thrives on a good long-winded debate. I bet there was a glowing twinkle in his eye when he saw the opportunity to tangle with Robert. Sic’em, Shaun.

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 12:00 PM | Link to this

Robert,

Could it be that power-pitching has a big impact on what a team did in the post-season, as research and common sense seem to indicate? How many good “power pitchers” have the Braves had during their run? Smoltz and maybe Millwood is about it, and look what Smoltz has done in the post-season. Is it Cox’s fault that the Braves haven’t had enough power-pitching?

(I wouldn’t blame anyone for the Braves not having enough power pitching because as I said before if Schuerholz had tried to build around power-pitching, the Braves probably don’t reach the post-season as often. They probably wouldn’t have gone after Maddux, wouldn’t have kept Glavine, wouldn’t have acquired or kept some of the good hitters, probably would have acquired some power pitchers that were only healthy and/or good for two or three seasons…all kinds of reasons why it’s a bad strategy to build your team around what wins in the post-season instead of what wins a lot of games.)

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 12:09 PM | Link to this

My question becomes this. You have a great farm system, with good scoutsm, and quality teachers. The system works to produce lots of home-grown baseball talent. So when these young whipper-snappers are ready for the show, why do you put them under the care of the stupidest human being you can find?

Yes, because the Braves home-grown talent has been such a huge disappointment.

Okay, I’m done with the Cox discussion.

I think it’s clear that the overwhelming evidence is against you. No sense arguing about beliefs held based exclusively on assumptions instead of factual evidence.

By JAMES

February 14, 2007 12:11 PM | Link to this

First things first. I remember back in 76 seeing Parliament/Fundadelic in concert in Columbia,SC for $10(on the floor). Now to my boys. I have been a hardcore Braves fan since 70. Hope always springs eternal for the boys of summer. Even in the 80’s when folks couldn’t give away tickets, I stuck with the fellas. DOB, I agree with you where the Braves will finish this year. The Braves are a class act and there is much motivation for them to do well. I’m out.

By Kay

February 14, 2007 12:15 PM | Link to this

DOB…My feeling for this Liberty sale is that they will hold payroll. But if John S does need a player, I think they will open up and let him have one. I did some reading on this guy John Malone and he is one smart man. I cant believe he would get a team and then just let it sit and not compete. Not with his background.

I may be thinking off the wall here, but I just dont think a man like Malone is going to buy the braves and let them sit idol. It just makes no sense. He will want that team built to the hill. Maybe not up payroll a huge amount, but give us the money to stay in a championship mode and buy what we need to win.

Oh done now. Go Braves #1.

By MBATL

February 14, 2007 12:15 PM | Link to this

My only 2 words about Cox’ post-season record: Player Performance.

Shaun, to me, 6 IBB against 170+ ab’s is not likely a sign of poor decision-making by other teams. Probably just situations where it made sense to put a force play in effect, I would guess, or that the next batter presented a better matchup.

That said, going back to ‘05, as a rookie, Francoeur hit 338/392/708 with RISP. How long does it take to establish yourself as a good situational hitter? Apparently, it goes all the way back to Little League with Jeff.

Obviously, a lot of RBI opportunities is likely to produce more RBI’s and Francoeur could have had many more, but Diaz actually underperformed in those situations, while Francoeur excelled. Don’t see how you can just reverse the facts and say Diaz would’ve driven in 150 (and, with much less power, too).

Anyway, I’m in agreement that Frenchy desperately needs to put the ball in play more, and take at least a few more walks. But let’s give credit where it’s due. (by the way, I don’t know how to measure this, but it seemed to me that he had a lot of bad luck last year when he did put the ball in play… a lot of right-at-ems… but maybe that was just my perception.)

By TennesseePaul

February 14, 2007 12:16 PM | Link to this

Payne: I haven’t assumed anything. I merely stated that, his numbers indicate he was at his worst while on the road with no one on.
But I was asking why you think Diaz would of had more RBI’s had he been hitting in Francoeur’s place. I still see no reason for that assertion.

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 12:18 PM | Link to this

Arkansas Hillbilly and KC,

I guess this “debate” is more for me to express why I’m so impressed with the Braves’ run and why I think they’ve only won one WS title than it is about trying to convince Robert that he’s so wrong about Bobby Cox.

Robert just enables us to bring up reasons as to why Cox (and the whole organization) is first-class.

By Zing

February 14, 2007 12:22 PM | Link to this

So when these young whipper-snappers are ready for the show, why do you put them under the care of the stupidest human being you can find?

Whoa, wait a minute. Since when was Robert put in the dugout?

By TennesseePaul

February 14, 2007 12:28 PM | Link to this

Well said MBATL. I think also you could point to his Highschool career and minor league career. The guy just focuses more or something when guys are on base. Away from home, the bases are empty and all of the sudden he isn’t focused. Of all his splits, it’s his road splits that blow. And they aren’t slight. They’re terrible. That alone would bring down his overall numbers.

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 12:30 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

Well, because Diaz (.327/.364/.475) was a better hitter than Francouer (.260/.293/.449)last season. If Francouer was able to drive in that many runs, it would seem to follow that a better hitter hitting in the same spot in the lineup in as many games would drive in more runs.

By GTA

February 14, 2007 12:32 PM | Link to this

Why can’t the braves finish first? If they won four more games last season, they woulda been in the playoffs. This season, hopefully the bullpen blows about 20 less games than last season and we’re in with about 95-100 wins at least.

By NYM

February 14, 2007 12:32 PM | Link to this

Interesting article by Dayn Perry (Foxsports.com) titled “NL East Questions”. Be forwarned all you METS haters, you may not be happy with some of the commentary.

By BravesFaninRockies

February 14, 2007 12:32 PM | Link to this

Clearly, Robert is a knowledgeable fan who has his issue and won’t be moved. Shaun thinks he can persuade Robert with overwhelming logic and evidence. Ain’t gonna happen, just like I’m never going to be a Mets fan or a Dook fan, no matter how good the teams may be.

(BTW, Brian, nice post yesteday p.m. Yes, I have seen signs that Coach K’s gait is starting to resemble Fred Sanford’s …)

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 12:32 PM | Link to this

MBATL,

I wouldn’t say Francouer excelled with RISP. But he did hit pretty well, much better than he did overall. Still hard to say why at this point.

By Barrett

February 14, 2007 12:43 PM | Link to this

Who else would you want as manager? Ted Turner? Thats was a awesome. How about Torre…. Didn’t the braves fire him? Yeah, I thought so. It’s not all Cox’s fault. If anyone thinks he is a horrible manager, well, there is not much that I can say except baseball may not be the sport for you. Try tennis.

By Barrett

February 14, 2007 12:49 PM | Link to this

IF you just go by those numbers, Diaz was a better hitter than Alfonso Soriano.

Diaz -.327/.364/.475 Ramirez -.277/.351/.560

Give me a break. Numbers can be decieving.

By Robert

February 14, 2007 12:52 PM | Link to this

Shaun - you havent cited a SHRED of evidence against me

The homegrown talent has been very good. DESPITE Cox.

A good player, especially a fundamentally sound player, will still be a good player even when managed by a cretin. Now that player and his team may not reach their full potential as far as team success when managed by an idiot, but as a player, they can swing the bat, run the bases, and throw the ball well even if the guy running the field hasnt a clue what to do or what is happening around him.

Auto-pilot on an all-star is a decent level of performance. It may not yield championships, but it’s decent performance, as far as individual player stats (and regular season wins)

Shaun, have you ever considered that as good as the Braves have done, that they might have done that much BETTER if they had a HALFWAY competent field leader?

Cox is first class all right - first class STUPID

By Robert

February 14, 2007 12:58 PM | Link to this

“Could it be that power-pitching has a big impact on what a team did in the post-season, as research and common sense seem to indicate?”

This is a bull-crap Cox apologist theory. Maddux and Glavine have similar stats in the regular and post-seasons. Some of the finest post season pitchers of all time have been not-power pitchers

Now, one good power pitcher has been able to shut down the Braves - no doubt there. Testament to how poorly prepared the team is for the post-season

By the way - what about the years when Smoltz/Avery or Smoltz/Millwood was half the rotation? I guess some other bs Cox apologosit excuse needs to be concocted for those years

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 01:02 PM | Link to this

Barrett,

I don’t see in those numbers that Diaz was a better hitter than Soriano.

Diaz had a better average but he doesn’t have that big an edge in OBP (the most important of the Big Three) and his SLG is pretty significantly lower.

That said, I do think a lot of people slightly overrated Soriano last season.

By Kieran from Long Island

February 14, 2007 01:04 PM | Link to this

On February 14, 2007 around Midnight, I heard for the FIRST TIME THIS OFFSEASON a membe rof the New York Media cite the Braves as a team teh Mets should look out for. Richard Neer was the man on his nighttime talk radio show. Its amaizng that noone Amongst the likes of Mike and teh Mad Dog, Steven A Smith, max Kellerman, Michael Kay, Joe Benigno, Steve Summers and man others have even mentioned the Braves as a team to worry about. A caller called in for Richard Neer asking about the Phillies and the Host told him, if I were a Mets Fan I’d take a good look at the Atlanta Braves, and he then broguht up the offseason moves they made to strengthen the bullpen. It really is shocking how under the radar they have been this off season and to hear the first person mention them as a threat THIS LATE in the off season is pretty shocking, I think the Mets are in for a rude awakening.

PS for those of you who don’t live here and are thinking about visitng for sight seeing an what not, Yea the Statue of Liberty and the City and all that is great, But if your planning on visiting New York this year for one reason and one reason only, make it to witness the Chaotic Circus that will be led by Alex Rodrigez. I can’t stress how thrilling it is to watch this guy operate under these conditions. When they say “we are seeing a rare player who we may never see again” surely they are speaking of Arod. I have never seen am athlete create such Comedy-tradgedy-action-drama-horror before, and still keep it interesting every week. Its a frenzy and I can;t get enough of it.

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 01:07 PM | Link to this

Robert,

Read this bit of research:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=betweenthenumbers/billybeane/060405

Then tell me how often the Braves have had all the factors for post-season success (closer performance, pitcher K rate, defense) going for them in one year.

By MBATL

February 14, 2007 01:12 PM | Link to this

Just playing with numbers (I don’t need no stinkin’ job):

If Francoeur had taken 1 more walk per week (25) instead of an out, and otherwise had exactly the same performance, his OBP would have been about .330, rather than .293. (this is obviously unofficial, but it’s what I came up with and I’m sure is close, if not precise).

That extra walk per week might have had no effect on the outcome of games (maybe on a game or 2, who knows); and .330 is not a HOF number, but I don’t think we’d even be having this discussion. That’s really how little it would take for Francouer to get this OBP monkey off his back. Hope he does at least that this year. It also makes me think, Shawn, that your over-rate OBP and underestimate production.

Shaun, “excelled” may be a little strong. I ran the numbers on NL batters with at least 100 abs with RISP (an arbitrary number); Out of 115 hitters who had that many opportunities: Francoeur came in 23rd in the NL; McCann was tied for 10th; Giles was 21st; Chipper 48th; AJ 58th. Don’t know what if anything this proves, because obviously other guys slugged better, or hit more HR, to drive in more runs in fewer opportunities than Jeff had … but there it is.

I really think the “problem” with Francouer is focus in situations that don’t get him “pumped.” If so, that is something that coaching (probably more Pendleton than Cox) needs to address (enter Robert, no doubt).

By matt

February 14, 2007 01:19 PM | Link to this

Shaun- my only point with the pitching thing was that we lost LaRoche’s offense production 35/100. THat’s going to be hard to replace. I don’t necessarilly think that Hudson and Hampton both have to have great years. I just think that Hudson will have to pitch better than he did last year and Hampton will have to be decent. Our much improved bullpen can’t be expected to bail out our underperforming starters ever night. Also, someone or someones are going to have to step up to compensate for the offensive loss of LaRoche. IMO. I’m ready for baseball season baby!!

By KC

February 14, 2007 01:29 PM | Link to this

FOXSPORTS.COM TEAM PREVIEW:

Suddenly the Braves are pitching-rich again. Especially in the bullpen, of all places.

General manager John Schuerholz, horrified by the blown leads the team endured last season, vowed to fix the bullpen. And did he ever, re-signing right-hander Bob Wickman, the closer who was acquired at the end of last season, and then trading for right-hander Rafael Soriano and left-hander Mike Gonzalez this offseason.

The dealing, Schuerholz says, “gives us as strong a bullpen, in my view, as we’ve had since I’ve been here.” That dates to 1991 when, not coincidentally, the Braves embarked on a nice little winning streak.

Now the team’s beleaguered starters have someone they trust coming in when they walk off the mound with a lead.

Not that the starting staff didn’t have its own moments last season. With the notable exception of right-hander John Smoltz, Braves starters mostly wavered, some felled by injury, some short-circuited by inconsistency. In that context, the return of left-hander Mike Hampton, who missed all of 2006 rehabbing from “Tommy John” surgery, is like adding a free agent ace.

By TennesseePaul

February 14, 2007 01:34 PM | Link to this

Payne: Clearly Diaz was a worse hitter with RISP .227/.287/.333 and 1 HR 25 RBI.
Compared to Francoeur .320/.368/.477 7HR 72 RBI. (About 100 points higher in every catagory)
So from this, I would gather that Diaz would of had less RBIs.

Francoeur’s career with RISP:
.328/.378/.545 13HR 106RBIs.
So far it looks like he is just really good at it.

By TennesseePaul

February 14, 2007 01:38 PM | Link to this

Payne: For Diaz’s career, he’s been a poor hitter with RISP. On top of that, he has no power. Especially in those situations.

By MGL

February 14, 2007 01:38 PM | Link to this

Matt, there may not be a problem, the career stats for Johnson+Thorman are almost identical to 2006 Giles+LaRoche.

By Braves20

February 14, 2007 01:38 PM | Link to this

DOB - Great post as usual. Put me down for Braves then the Phils - hard to ignore how they strengthened their rotation and Linebrink is still a possibility for their pen. Like others - still concerned about the right side - prediction - Johnson will be okay but Thorman and the hole in his swing as big as Montana will visit Virginia before the year is over.

By braveheart

February 14, 2007 01:41 PM | Link to this

kieran, that is the greatest sports radio station there has ever been - the biggest thing about NYC that I miss - but don’t take them too seriously. None of them are very knowledgeable about anything. They are only very good at pretending to be very knowledgeable about things. Read Phil Muschnik everyday in the post - he will set you straight

By MBATL

February 14, 2007 01:44 PM | Link to this

KC, thanks; in that same article, Fox writes:

Schuerholz is too natty of dress and too dignified of carriage to resemble the little Dutch boy with his finger in the dike, but that’s basically the scenario as he works to keep the Braves afloat with the players he has on hand, either by training them at new positions or employing them in trade.

Huh?

As we all know, the “players he has on hand” include one of the best starters in baseball, 3 of the best relievers, one of the best CF, C, 3B.

The only player learning a new position is KJ - and we’ve got Aybar, Prado to back him up (neither is a star, but neither will embarrass, either, IMO).

I really don’t get this comment.

By KC

February 14, 2007 01:46 PM | Link to this

MATT: “I don’t necessarilly think that Hudson and Hampton both have to have great years. I just think that Hudson will have to pitch better than he did last year and Hampton will have to be decent. Our much improved bullpen can’t be expected to bail out our underperforming starters ever night. Also, someone or someones are going to have to step up to compensate for the offensive loss of LaRoche.”

I agree with you on Hampton and Hudson. We don’t necessarily need Hudson back in Cy Young form. If he can simply get his ERA back in the mid-3.00 range, he’ll win a lot of games with the bullpen and offense.

As for Hampton, as I’ve said many times… we have to expect him to be non-impressive through (at least) the first 2-3 months of the season because there is certainly going to be a re-acclimation period. I’m hoping Hampton will post an ERA in the low-4.00 range over the first half, and an ERA well under 4.00 in the second half.

If Hampton and Hudson can give us that much (and Smoltz and James just keep up the good work), we should have as good a rotation as there is in the NL. If Davies has a good season… that’s a bonus.

As for replacing LaRoche’s offense… you are correct. He will be missed. However, that trade didn’t affect the middle of the Braves lineup in any way since he didn’t hit there. Also, Thorman or a Thorman/Wilson platoon will make up for a significant portion of what LaRoche provided last season (32/90). The Braves will still likely get 20-25 HR’s and 70-80 RBI from first base this season. That would be a net less of 7-12 homers and 10-20 RBI.

The Braves were the top offensive team in the NL last year, so the loss of 12 homers and 20 RBI isn’t going to relegate them to the middle of the pack offensively. They’ll still finish in the top 3 or 4 in NL runs scored. That will be plenty with this pitching… especially of Hudson and/or Hampton steps up.

By TennesseePaul

February 14, 2007 01:51 PM | Link to this

Interesting article on FoxSports by Rosenthal “Winners and Losers in Baseball”. You Mets Lovers better skip it. It ranks the Mets as having one of the worst offseasons in baseball. Right there with the Nats.

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 01:54 PM | Link to this

MBATL,

I think OBP is a key part of production—they can’t be separated—if you are defining production as creating opportunities for the team to score runs. It’s not the only part of run production but a key part. As I’ve said a billion times, avoiding outs goes hand-in-hand with scoring runs.

I think some people confuse production with RBI. And I do think driving in runs can has to do with ability but I think it has much more to do with opportunities. How else do you explain so many otherwise bad hitters in every sense of the word (even many hitters who are bad with runners on or in scoring position) having 100 RBI seasons?

By TennesseePaul

February 14, 2007 02:03 PM | Link to this

Dayn Perry always gets something wrong. For the longest time he was arguing against the Braves because “Pete Orr is not a viable replacement to Giles.” The dumb thing about this is, not once in the last year has it ever been mentioned that Orr was the replacement for Giles. He just makes things up and runs with them. And he also pulls on the stat cloak. Giles career numbers look good, so replacing the career numbers will be difficult. But we aren’t replacing those. We are replacing last years numbers, which weren’t impressive at all. 141 games of unimpressive play and we still out scored everyone in the league but the Phillies. And from everything I read and see about Thorman I can’t even begin to worry. Last year we had AJ, Francoeur and LaRoche in the line up. That’s 3 of the leagues streakiest hitters. We are replacing one with Thorman who appears to be a pretty solid consistant hitter.

I guess the question is, would you rather have a guy who hits .280/.340/.500 every month. Or a guy who hits .240/.300/.450 for 4 months and then 2 months of outstanding play? They average out the same in the end, but one is helping you for 6 straight months the other only shows up for 2 months.

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 02:14 PM | Link to this

TennPaul,

Like I said, it’s certainly a possibility that Francouer is a good situational hitter. But I would say it’s too early to tell for sure.

By Robert

February 14, 2007 02:18 PM | Link to this

Shaun, I read that espn.com piece.

On the surface it’s interesting

So there’s a 70-85 percent correlation between the performance in some combination of those four variables and WS success, as determined with a sample size of n=180.

I dont know how well that would hold up under statistical analysis

Let’s comment on a single variable that has a far closer (tho negative) correlation with WS success.

Having Bobby Cox as manager is 96% predictive of not winning the WS

By Kieran from Long Island

February 14, 2007 02:19 PM | Link to this

Some talk show radio hosts are more knowledgable then others. It usually depends on the sport. Someone like Steven A. Smith is a scholar when it comes to the NBA, semi-knowledgable with the NFL but when the topic is baseball he often just fills the airwaves with generalizations. Max Kellerman, the former host of Around the Horn, is very good. Richard Neer is a guy who’s been around on the radio forever and isn’t going to spit out Junk. yes tehre are a lot of guys who just talk to entertain, but you can pick your spots with teh guys who know what there saying. The New York Stations are very delibrate about who they put on the radio, so your not hearing total garbage all the time.

They often place too much emphasis on local teams and it make sthem sound ignorant, but I guess thats the nature of the business.

By Matt

February 14, 2007 02:26 PM | Link to this

Sportscrack.com thinks we should trade Andruw Jones now before we lose him for nothing and we can still contend for the division. They also think that the Phillies will win the division, with us finishing second, and the Mets finishing third because of Pedro Martinez being injured. Here is the article: http://sportscrack.com/nleastpreview2007.html

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 02:34 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

I think Dayn Perry is a smart guy, I just don’t think he understood what the Braves were doing about the 2B situation and he assumed a lot—if he did indeed assume Orr was going to take Giles’s place. He didn’t know that Kelly Johnson was going to take over, which is where he went wrong.

He was right to say Orr can’t replace Giles, even a sub-par Giles, but I also agree with you, TennPaul, that Kelly Johnson can replace last year’s Giles.

By NYM

February 14, 2007 02:39 PM | Link to this

Matt- I wonder where that website predicted the Mets would finish last year? Was it first by 12 games? I doubt it……

By rammerjammer

February 14, 2007 02:44 PM | Link to this

Shaun vs. Robert. The irresistable force meets the immovable object.

Shaun, with his massive calculator and weighty statistics.

Robert, with his massive lungs and weighty vocabulary. Well, not really.

Should be an interesting diversion heading into spring training.

By ernesto

February 14, 2007 02:54 PM | Link to this

Anyone got a prediction on how many times this year Andruw swings so hard he falls down? I’m setting teh over under at 18.

By TennesseePaul

February 14, 2007 02:55 PM | Link to this

Payne: His entire history from childhood to pro is littered with reason to believe he can do it. I think we’ll see this year a much improved hitter overall and still see similar results in his clutch numbers.

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 03:00 PM | Link to this

Robert,

That piece was an overview of “statistical analysis.” You didn’t answer the question—when have the Braves had all the variables that seem to matter most to post-season success? And furthermore, is it Cox’s fault if they haven’t had all of these variables at one time or another? Also, how did Cox win his one World Series? Did he somehow prepare his team in that one more than the others? How did he make it to the World Series in some seasons, make it only to the NLCS in some, lose in the first round in some, win a World Series in one? Is it just random that he’s prepared his team in some series but not others?

By Stinky

February 14, 2007 03:01 PM | Link to this

KYBrave, You might want to rethink your handle. Maybe AstroGlideBrave would do the trick.

By Robert`

February 14, 2007 03:10 PM | Link to this

Shaun (or somebody) - I want to know the Braves’ record in games in which Bobby Cox was ejected when the game was tied. I bet that it’s higher than the Braves’ winning percentage under Cox for all games

Cox is the stupidest human being in baseball, and a negative influence on his team. There is a statitic out there that can show it that can not be conveniently excused away by the burro-apologists.

If there is a god in heaven, or if there is a functioning brain cell in the Braves’ front office that belongs to someone Cox doesnt have pictures of in compromising positions, then the reign of the donkey will end after 2007

My lord how awesome it would feel to head into spring training with HOPE for the Braves

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 03:10 PM | Link to this

Shaun, with his massive calculator and weighty statistics.

“Shaun, with his empirical evidence over intuition- and convention-laden assumptions” is more like it.

By Robert

February 14, 2007 03:17 PM | Link to this

Bobby Cox is either seriously connected in the mafia, or he has pictures of JS with animals and/or little boys.

I cant think of another reason why an intelligent person like JS would not only voluntarily associate himself with, but also laud the merits of, the stupidest mofo in baseball

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 03:24 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

Not trying to be a jerk, but do you have the evidence that shows Francouer is a good situational/clutch hitter? I would like to see the numbers in clutch situations throughout his pro career and high school career, if you have them.

By DonCoburleone

February 14, 2007 03:24 PM | Link to this

I hear alot of arguments for or against Francoeur. I think Francoeur has potential that is matched by few in the league. The only thing I see with him, is how he can’t seem to keep the high level of concentration needed to succeed on a consistent basis. And to me, that is something that comes with age and experience. So, everyone, just calm down about Francoeur. If he is still posting a .283OBP and averaging 25 walks a season when he is 25 or 26, then I’ll agree it is a problem…

By ncscoots

February 14, 2007 03:25 PM | Link to this

Let’s see, Orr hit .300 in 2005, and was hailed by blogdom as a great player off the bench; hits about .250 last year, and is decried by the same folks as not-worth-a-bag-of-balls. The difference in his seasons? Six hits. Six. In almost exactly the same number of AB. Not exactly a rapid decline of offensive skills, for those bloggers ready to throw the guy under a bus. I make no case for the guy starting at 2B or even being on the 25-man in April, for that matter. Just noting that the rationale for nuking the guy, as have some posters, might be just a hair off the mark.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 14, 2007 03:33 PM | Link to this

That picture on the Braves MLB.com homepage. Is that Chris Woodward or Billy Bob Thornton? :-)

By KC

February 14, 2007 03:34 PM | Link to this

MBATL: Yeah… I just copied the portion that pertained to the pitching staff. I didn’t pay much attention to the rest of it, and didn’t read that part closely until you pasted that portion.

I don’t get that statement either. People keep saying the same old things… the Braves don’t have a leadoff man, and they don’t know what they’re going to get from 1B, 2B, or LF.

Well, the Braves didn’t have a leadoff man last year either. They’ll get as much or more offensively out of LF with the addition of Craig Wilson (this is a position that bats 8th anyway), and living up to Marcus Giles’ 2006 production shouldn’t exactly be a superhuman feat.

The reality is that not much has changed from last year’s squad that was the best offense in the league. The one notable change of course is the loss of LaRoche. That will hurt, most definitely. But it’s not going to affect the middle of the order in any way. And going from 32 homers, 93 RBI to (in all probability) 20-25 homers and 70 or so RBI at 1B is not going to be enough to take 2006’s best NL offense and relegate it to mediocrity.

“finger in the dike”… “doing the best they can with the players they have”?????????

If you think the Braves are going to have great pitching as the writer of that piece seemed to indicate, how could you not regard the Braves as a dangerous team?

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 03:38 PM | Link to this

DonCoburleone,

I don’t think anyone would say Francouer is not likely to reach his star potential. Most hitters do become more patient as they mature.

I think the question is how productive has he been. Some say very productive (based on his RBI and clutch numbers) and I and others say he hasn’t been that productive (based on his high out percentage).

By StingerSplash

February 14, 2007 03:40 PM | Link to this

I hate to refer back to an earlier blog (if this isn’t epic foreshadowing, then I’m not William Shakespeare. OK, I’m not, but you get the drift), did anyone mention this all-time great drummer: Animal from The Muppet Show? And anyone who saw Francoeur back in high school knows how he just oozes clutch. Ask Lassiter about the 2002 state championship series.

By MBATL

February 14, 2007 03:47 PM | Link to this

Shaun, read the article about what contributes to championships. Basically, closer, strikeouts, and defense, right?

But that was written before the Cardinals won the WS last year. They actually had a very mediocre closer (Isringhausen, with a 3.55 era), were way down in the league in K’s (14th out of 16 teams); their defense was above average, not great.

So next time these guys run the statistics for winning, the numbers will be slightly changed; closers and k’s won’t rate quite as high. Maybe OBP, or balks (?), will show up as the “defining factors.” Statistically, some other factors might nudge their way in as most important. Does that really change the reality of what it will take to win “next year?”

It’s one thing to look back and say “these are the factors that have been typical of championship teams,” but another to say what will contribute to NEXT YEAR’S championship. A fine line, but I think worth noting. The first is absolutely accurate; the latter, consistently inconsistent.

My point is not that statistics are not meaningful; but that your view of the game overlooks… dare I say it… intangibles … and timely performance.

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 03:49 PM | Link to this

ncscoots,

Orr seems like a likable guy and a useful defensive player because of versatility but it was rather obvious before 2006 that he is nothing more than a fringe player—he never really hit all that great in any season at any level (maybe a few games Myrtle Beach in 2002 but that’s about it).

These “most bloggers” your talking about should have looked at his overall pro numbers, not just his 2005 batting average in 150 major league at-bats.

By Robert

February 14, 2007 03:49 PM | Link to this

Shaun - I dont buy the analysis that suggests that these four variables are the keys to playoff success. Even if there is SOME correlation, to suggest that guys like Maddux and Glavine just arent good enough to expect playoff success is luedicrous.

I will not answer your question about how the Braves have fared in these areas because doing so imply that I agree that these are the most important factors.

I dont agree

Give me a well managed, properly prepared and motivated team - whatever they may be defensively, or closer wise, or K-rate wise, and they will outperfom the same team managed by a donkey

““Shaun, with his empirical evidence over intuition- and convention-laden assumptions”

Shaun - you can cite statistics and you can give individual case references of evidence, but that in no way means that your statistical analyses or your conclusions are complete or not seriously flawed

And you have cited “14 straight blah-blah-blah” as your evidence several times. What could POSSIBLY be more conventional, and convention-blinded, than that?

Shaun, have you ever WATCHED a Braves game? Have you ever seen the other team outmaneuver the home boys, seen an opposing manager just run rings around Cox, seen Cox do nothing more than turn red and blue and wet his diaper b*** to himself about ball and strike calls - Ever seen Cox staring vacantly while a game is lost right in front of him. Ever LISTEN to the stupid SOB talk about the “one bad pitch” that resulted in a walk off grand slam, or talk about how there is no problem and how “_-ey is looking good” even tho __-ey hasnt gotten solid wood on a ball in a month and a half?

Shaun there are some things that require a detailed statistical analysis to understand or to figure out.

But not everything. Do you, Shaun, need a statistical analysis to convince you that you need to eat, sleep, and poop?

Simple is simple. Self-evident is self-evident. Donkey is donkey.

To figure out that Bobby Cox is a blithering idiot who has no clue how to manage a baseball team does NOT require statistical analysis, is not rocket science, and is something that anyone who has watched the Braves for the past 15 years knows, even if they wont admit it to themselves

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 03:59 PM | Link to this

StingerSplash and TennPaul,

Actually, does high school really tell us anything? (I mean, I know it tells us something because obviously the Braves wouldn’t have drafted Chipper or Francouer if they hadn’t performed in high school.)

By TennesseePaul

February 14, 2007 04:02 PM | Link to this

Oh well, let’s see…
For his minor league numbers, minus the splits go to the Cube. For all of his major league splits see the Cube and MLB.com. For his high school numbers… his splits are hard to find, so I went with overall numbers.
He holds the all time and single season high, at his high school in Runs scored, Hits, HR, RBI, TB, and most career SB.
Francoeur hit a three run homer in his first major league game.
2002 High School player of the year award.
In the 5A state championship double header, a 2 of 3 series for the title, Francoeur went 6/7 at the plate with 4 home runs, 2 doubles, 1 Walk, 7 RBI, and 5 runs scored. He also picked up the win in both ends of the double header as he came on to pitch relief in the 6th and 7th innings (7 inning game). For 2 seasons Parkview eliminated Lassiter from the playoffs on 2-0 sweeps in the series. In the 4 games, Francoeur finished 11 of 13 with 9 home runs and 2 doubles.

Does that cover it for you or do you need more?

By Robert

February 14, 2007 04:06 PM | Link to this

DOB - Juan Gonzalez - any chance the Braves would give him a look?

Shaun - Does high school really tell us anything?- - Dude, be patient. You’ll find out all about high school when you get there in two or three years. Meanwhile enjoy the 7th grade, it’ll likely turn out to be the best four years of your life.

By MGL

February 14, 2007 04:08 PM | Link to this

I was going to point out tht the SI swimsuit photos are up in the hopes that Robert would get distracted for a while. Foolish thought, I forgot he is pre-occupied with Donkeys.

By Shaun

February 14, 2007 04:12 PM | Link to this

MBATL,

I think the article mentions there is always an element of the unpredictable in the post-season because of the small sample of games—if it doesn’t it should.

I think the article is more about certain things that increase the chances of post-season success but as we’ve all seen there are a number of examples of strange things happening in short series or over the two week span of post-season games—the Cardinals pitching way over performing in 2006 is a good example.

By The Grinch

February 14, 2007 04:28 PM | Link to this

Morning, all. Stinky, you beat me to it on KYbrave. Robert, that 4:06 was hilarious. I guess DOB must be on the road; he didn’t tell me what a tasteless moron I was for saying the guitarist from “obscure two-chord garage noise band of the week” wasn’t a virtuoso. Oh, well. Off to the gym.

By TennesseePaul

February 14, 2007 04:33 PM | Link to this

Actually, does high school really tell us anything? (I mean, I know it tells us something…

Ummm….

By doggonegadawg

February 14, 2007 04:37 PM | Link to this

Since we could not put a face on ownership one thing is certain. At least now we don’t have an ownership that, in all probability, is not wearing NY Yankee pinstripes. And that was the way it was with Time-Warner being headquartered in NY. Let us hope that good business will be to bring in late season talent to help the Braves move on to the next level by winning. But, then again, I just may be dreaming. At least hope is one of the big three things that endure for all time. Faith and Love being the other two. We can only hope. Could it be that Arthur Blanks will ultimately end up with the Braves?

By eware

February 14, 2007 04:49 PM | Link to this

Is anyone else sick of blogging about this pre-season (and off-season)? I’m buggin to watch some games. This offseason feels like the longest in history!

I’m predicting Lerew will have a huge Spring Training. Devine also, if you remember he had an outstanding Spring Training last year.

DOB, there was talk about Devine reworking his delivery to take less stress off his back - do you know how that process went for him?

By rammerjammer

February 14, 2007 05:06 PM | Link to this

Yep, Shaun is slapping Robert silly. Just slappin’ him around, like Ali against Patterson. Just USING him.

It’s FAN-tastic.

By DonCoburleone

February 14, 2007 05:21 PM | Link to this

If anything those high school numbers tell us that we’ve got a natural born leader on our hands in Francoeur. Add Chuck James into the mix as future leader of the pitching staff, and the Braves have the making of a team destined to win a couple championships in the future… Leaders on the field win Championships Robert, not the guy in the dugout… I’m amazed you can’t figure that out…

By Robert

February 14, 2007 05:37 PM | Link to this

” Leaders on the field win Championships Robert, not the guy in the dugout”

The guy in the dugout can lose championships. And he has, like no other before him

By David O'Brien

February 14, 2007 05:53 PM | Link to this

“Maybe AstroGlideBrave would do the trick.”

Just arrived at the AJC rental house, logged on and saw that. After a 6-1/2 hour drive, that made me laugh.

By David O'Brien

February 14, 2007 06:01 PM | Link to this

Eware, Devine made those adjustments last year during his long stint on DL following his early season woes. He pitched very well after rejoining the Braves in September, and form was noticeably better, standing up taller on mound, that kind of thing.

By just Bob, plain and simple

February 14, 2007 06:01 PM | Link to this

“Hillbilly”

It may well be ill-advised, but like Patton’s reaction to McAuliffe’s “nuts”, your empassioned posts deserve a reply!

The Grinch and “Tommy” didn’t appear at my door, just two drunks talking about blue worms and a boy named Sue … but, Grinch did send me a Valentine’s greeting and suggested I visit the blog and read David O’B’s response to your post suggesting that the Blog is in dire need of a medical cleansing.

My very high regard for David and his efforts are well known, indeed a matter of both public and private record … as is my disdain for apathy and what I’ve chosen to classify as unacceptable behavior … so his comments were not unexpected.

Having someone like yourself to “step up to the plate” … and during the off season at that, now that says alot … and is truly refreshing!!

Your language is a bit more colorful than mine but I’m envious of your ability with a hammer … you’ve hit the nail on the head my friend!

Your “Decent bloggers are being cast into exile like it’s going out of style” and “Is that so hard to understand?” comments will join Jimmy Smith’s “Man Oh Man, What a game … I live for this!”, HeadCoach’s “beer cans at the TV” … and many others … as fond keepsakes.

I’m adding “Watch the core group of good bloggers go down in flames” to that list … three in one short post is a record!!

However, I’m going to ignore the “that’s all you can do” comment and assume “Stinky” cast his spell and caused you to add that in a moment of weakness.

Ignoring a problem is never a solution … as I shared with the Grinch and others, “it may be true that an ignored stinky will seek others on which to prey … but prey he will.”, referring to the generic “stinky”, and not to any individual.

Are we to take a “nationalist” view and allow such menaces to flourish … so long as we’re left alone? It depends on to whom you ask … “Lindy” thought so … “Winnie” didn’t.

Even the “nationalists” must realize that that their solution is flawed … for every “stinky” that leaves, one or more will take its place. It might be argued that they would follow a course of least resistance and seek friendlier environs … but, I rather suspect that the opposite would be true … the more adroit of the evil doers would be attracted by the challenge.

There has to be a better solution than ignoring, or attempting to ignore, those whose behavior we might abhor … and one that is far better than leaving the Blog in protest … I’ll grant you that!!

I’s amusing and a bit bemusing to think that others might believe my absence somehow bespeaks abandonment of my friends and flight from persecution … tain’t so McGee … it’s just that, quoting some wiser and more articulate than I, “the proof of the pudding is in the eating and it just don’t taste good!” … and, while my earlier protest opposing the AJC’s handling of the situation may have been inapproptiate, I’m still highly disappointed and feel it’s wrong that they should allow the situation to be as it is … regardless of any protestions, you don’t have to use obscene language or attack someone’s heritage to be boorish beyond the limits of what should be allowed in a public forum.

I sincerely feel that my participation, given the current situation, would only serve to make matters worse … for there’s no way that I can remain silent and ignore either the apathy of those who so do … or those who engage in unacceptable behavior. It doesn’t mean that I won’t return as an active participant … it does mean that if I so do, those who now think of me as being a self-righteous old fool and an “elitist” … won’t like it … they ain’t seen nothing yet!

I’m not sure you were including me as one of the “3 regulars” referenced in your response to David’s “epic post” but I just added the “It’s just a crying shame … ” comment to my list of keepsakes … and I imagine that if Jimmy were here, he’d be dubbing you a journalist of the first order!!

However, there are those who would take issue with your “well-respected, and very entertaining” descriptor … but, from my perspective, the descriptor certainly applies to you, my friend!

The “Hillbilly” outdid himself with his impassioned plea for their return … “Get back on the train. Blog with us. We’ve got a World Series to win.” … Goodness and Dadgum!!

I think “Blog with us. We’ve got a World Series to win.” deserves to go in the Blog’s Hall of Fame and really should be used by David as a Lead Topic invitation to others to join the Blog … assuming the neighbourhood receives the medical treatment you earlier suggested.

Until that happens, I can’t really imagine inviting good folks to being exposed to the abuse they’re apt to receive.

We’ve got a World Series to win … have no fear, we’re going to do exactly that!! With Bobby Cox!!

You take care … quoting you “it’s just a crying shame” others can’t step up to the plate.

I wasn’t intending on competing with David for longest Post honors … just a bit out of practice.

Happy Valentines Day!

Regards,

Bob

By DonCoburleone

February 14, 2007 06:22 PM | Link to this

DOB you are in Florida now???

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 14, 2007 06:31 PM | Link to this

DOB, 6 1/2 hour drive? What? The AJC wouldn’t spring for an airplane ticket and rental car? I know its for six weeks but c’mon now.

By AstroGlideBrave

February 14, 2007 07:14 PM | Link to this

This name any better for ya then stinky?

By DonCoburleone

February 14, 2007 07:41 PM | Link to this

Man, seriously, can’t this season start already??? I’m dyin’ here…

By David O'Brien

February 14, 2007 08:13 PM | Link to this

Just Bob is back, hail the return. Now we can get this thing started….

Robert (JIB), completely my choice on travel method. Wanted to bring my old cat down here. He’s too old to leave with a stranger for six weeks. Plus driving allows me to bring a ton of crap down _ some weights, plenty of clothes, books and mags and CDs, motorcycle helmet and boots (a buddy brought my Triumph down this year on his six-bike trailer, first time I’ve had the bike here for spring training)…. Tough to get all that on plane.

By David O'Brien

February 14, 2007 08:19 PM | Link to this

Robert, and actually, a 6-1/2 hour drive isn’t much longer than the entire time you’ve got to allow for the flight these days _ not to mention days like today, when half the planes are late arriving because they’re coming from the NE, etc.

You figure you leave about 2 hours before your flight for the airport, takes an hour or so to fly, a half-hour to get to baggage claim (at least in Orlando it does) and get your bag, and another half-hour or so to get your rental car. And that’s if there’s no flight delays.

Anyway…not bad, but the highway was absolutely littered with cops. Pulling over people left and right.

By ssiscribe

February 14, 2007 08:32 PM | Link to this

Well all right then, folks. My cold/flu is shaking loose, DOB and all his stuff have set up shop in the shadow of Dark Star, and Bob has reappeared on the ol’ blog.

‘Bout time to fire this thing up and get it rolling. All aboard the Braves/Man In Black/BBQ/Toes/Pie Express. Next stop, a date with destiny the last week of October.

World Series, here we come! Sit back, denzines, and enjoy the ride.

—30—

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 14, 2007 08:33 PM | Link to this

I hear you, DOB. I guess I didn’t think about that. Six and a half hours isn’t that bad of a drive. I drive 14 every time I go to Oklahoma.

By brian

February 14, 2007 08:58 PM | Link to this

BravesfaninRockies-

I just could not put my finger on that walk.

Go BC Eagles!

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 14, 2007 09:04 PM | Link to this

I’m like everyone else. I can’t wait for some game to begin being played. I’ll take spring training games right now. Just something. Six weeks seems like forever right now!

By AdirondackDave

February 14, 2007 09:27 PM | Link to this

Ok, DOB and others, I’ve got a driving topper… I’m waiting for this 4-foot snowfall to end so we can get away from this nightmare, drive 1,025 miles to Atlanta to visit our son and his family (which is how I became a Braves fan) for a few days and then drive another 650 miles further to our condo in south Florida. While I’m sitting here unable to get out of our driveway I’m thinking of which Braves “away” spring training games against the Dodgers or Cards I can catch. Then, two months later, in April, I get to reverse the trip of 1,675 miles, hopefully catching a game at the Ted on the way. Anybody top that?

By TennesseePaul

February 14, 2007 09:36 PM | Link to this

Sweet! DOB’s in Florida. Now the Nitty Gritty will begin. The juice. The gossip. The lore. All the good stuff. Did I miss DOB’s post concerning his selected driving tunes?
Spring is upon us and not a moment too soon. The Dirtbags are winning, so far, and the players are reporting early. Let’s gitterdun!

GO BRAVES

By MEB

February 14, 2007 09:37 PM | Link to this

Great to read your prose again Bob and I pray that you abide well my friend. The Hillbilly was exactly right and we definitely need our heavy hitters to blog the Braves to the promised land. I know there is a stench in the air and that winter has once again returned to our land but there is serious work ahead. With DOB entrenched with our warriors at the Wide World of Sports complex, deep in the land of the Seminole, the smoke signals can clearly be seen. A call is being made for us to unite and ward off the evil Mets, the fighting Phillies, the pesky Gnats, and the upstart Marlins. I look forward to seeing you around the reservation as we unite around our Braves.

By Stinky

February 14, 2007 10:57 PM | Link to this

I knew it.

By flbravesgirl

February 14, 2007 11:02 PM | Link to this

6 1/2 hours with a cat in the car?! Either you’re a very brave man, DOB, or Coltrane is much calmer about going for a drive than any cat I’ve ever served.(Y’all know the joke: Dogs have owners, cats have staff)

I sympathize about the drive. 8-9 hours to Rabun at least once a month for me, bleah. Anyhow, glad you’re down here and I look forward to your reports.

Hi, Bob! Nice to see you back.

By Dr. Tchock

February 14, 2007 11:18 PM | Link to this

When talking about basketball and vs. Duke, I’ll join in with “Go BC Eagles.” That didn’t work out though.

But otherwise go BU Terriers! A lot of you in the south may not realize it, but if you want to see a passionately played collegiate sports game, watch BU/BC face off on the ice. I’m from Georgia and had never heard a word about it, but up here it gets pretty crazy.

Anyone have any feelings about which of the big question marks is going to turn out the best or worst this season? Thorman, Kelly Johnson, left field, Hampton, Hudson, Davies, Chipper’s toes, people respecting Edgar’s steady quality production?

By TennesseePaul

February 14, 2007 11:21 PM | Link to this

Asked my buddy (he works for a local weekly here in SoCal) about the Pickups. He was impressed they’ve gotten all the way to the East so quickly. I’ve got a few discs to trade in so I’ll be picking that one up. Still haven’t traded in the dups I found in my collection after I was bequethed all those albums. Still haven’t listened to all those albums either. I’ll have to check them out some time when they have another show. Thanks for the list.

By the way, in all this time on the blog, I haven’t seen one meantion of an artist who I think you know, or at least you should… Jeff Buckley. His cover of Leonard Cohen’s Hallelujah is perfect. The lyrics go well to those who complain about the tunes on this blog…

Now I’ve heard there was a secret chord
That David played, and it pleased the lord
but you don’t really care for music, do you?
Well it goes like this the fourth, the fifth
The minor fall and the major lift
The baffled king composing hallelujah

Great tune. You know Buckley’s stuff?

By David O'Brien

February 14, 2007 11:43 PM | Link to this

Oh, TennPaul, you gotta KNOW I’m into the late, great Jeff Buckley’s stuff. God only know what that dude could have done if he hadn’t died so early, and what a way to go _ drowning in Big Muddy, the Mississippi River.

Yes, we actually did mention him once, or I did when someone else was talking about best versions of Hallelujah, and I said Buckley’s was my favorite.

The man was simply brilliant. What a voice, and what a performer. I’ve got the expanded Grace CD, the Grace EPs, the expanded Live at Sin-e, Sketches for my Sweetheart the Drunk, and Mystery White Boy. Maybe another one, but can’t remember for sure.

His dad was pretty damn solid, too. But before my time a bit.

By David O'Brien

February 14, 2007 11:45 PM | Link to this

Tchock, it was a valiant comeback bid by BC, but they just fell short in those last couple minutes. Coach K was about as fired up tonight as I’ve ever seen him, at least as far as his emotions directed at his players were concerned.

By TennesseePaul

February 15, 2007 12:08 AM | Link to this

DOB: Figured you did. It’s near impossible to have a robust collection and thirst for music and not know Buckley. I guess I was out during that discussion. Glad to hear it’s been here before. I had just finished Amnesiac (after last nights post I had to listen) when I turned my system on random today, on the drive home, and that song came on. Just love that song. Then the machine pulled up I’m on fire. Love that one too. The Boss can write ‘em when he needs to. It’s great to have your own private juke box. It’s a radio station that plays everything you wanna hear.

By The Grinch

February 15, 2007 12:14 AM | Link to this

Bob has returned! Good times. So, Dave, you get a house for the duration, huh? I had assumed it would be a hotel. That’s pretty cool; is it a happenin’ sort of batchelor pad near the beach or do you have to share your front doorstep with crackheads and winos?

By Daybed Wagmoe

February 15, 2007 12:17 AM | Link to this

definitely agree with you on buckley — he was definitely taken too early with so much left that he could’ve done, but it’s nice that what he left is so rich and incredible. his entire catalog, as small as it may be, would rate among the best in my book.

dave - did you mean to type “mystery white box,” or “boy”? is there a box set for mystery white boy? is the one that you can’t remember the grace “legacy edition” cd? the “songs to no one” cd with gary lucas?

By Choppinmama

February 15, 2007 12:26 AM | Link to this

DOB: Alright Dave ol’ boy, we’ll be waiting to read about all the pitching counts, bp oddities, assorted pops, tears, strains, pulls, unintentional beanings, groin health and the all-important bunion-watch reports that we have been pining for these past bleak winter months.

In other words, tell us everything remotely interesting that happens at camp.

Off the field, let us know who and when tee time is, who’s catching the biggest LMBs in the lakes, and who’s riding what with whom at the parks.

If any of my fellow bloggers spend any time at WWS this spring, I’d love to read their take on just how much fire they see burning in the boys this spring.

Thank you Lord, it’s baseball season!!

By Choppinmama

February 15, 2007 12:29 AM | Link to this

DOB: Alright Dave ol’ boy, we’ll be waiting to read about all the pitching counts, bp oddities, assorted pops, tears, strains, pulls, unintentional beanings, groin health and the all-important bunion-watch reports that we have been pining for these past bleak winter months.

In other words, tell us everything remotely interesting that happens at camp.

Off the field, let us know who and when tee time is, who’s catching the biggest LMBs in the lakes, and who’s riding what with whom at the parks.

If any of my fellow bloggers spend any time at WWS this spring, I’d love to read their take on just how much fire they see burning in the boys this spring.

Thank you Lord, it’s baseball season!!

By David O'Brien

February 15, 2007 12:32 AM | Link to this

Grinch, there ain’t a beach within 60 or so miles of Orlando, man. Not unless you count the beaches on the lakes at Disney _ which are fake, of course, man-made like everything else associated with The Great Domininon of Amusement.

Our rental house is actually quite nice this year. It’s second year they’ve asked us to get a house. My first 10 years covering baseball I stayed in an apartment once and a hotel nine years. While I miss the 45 or so Marriott nights (stayed at a Marriott Courtyard or Residence Inn every year, in Melbourne covering Marlins and here covering Braves, until the last two springs), it’s so much easier on the brain to not return to a a 15x20 foot box of a room every night for 6-1/2 weeks.

The AJC does the house thing because it’s a lot cheaper having everyone stay here while covering Daytona or spring training. We have three here tonight (Bradley, a photographer and me) in a 4-bedroom, 3-bathroom house. We’ll have four tomorrow after Carroll gets here. But after Daytona’s over it’ll be one or two most of the time, and I’ll have the house to myself plenty of nights out of the six weeks.

Since I’m the one here for the duration, I’ve got the master bedroom, and it’s pretty sweet.

We pay less per night for this house, a two-story, fully furnished, with cable TV, pool (but too expensive to pay to heat it, and water’s too cold this time of year to get in), linens, all that stuff, than I paid for a room at the Courtyard most of the time.

Only negative is fighting traffic on 192 near Disney, but it’s only about 20 minutes to the ballpark if you cut through a back part of Disney World.

By David O'Brien

February 15, 2007 12:36 AM | Link to this

Daybed, just a typo. Need to get to bed. Bleary-eyed. It was Mystery White Boy. I’ve got the Grace expanded (legacy) and the Grace EPs box. I couldn’t remember if I had another Buckley CD or not, that’s what I meant by couldn’t remember.

Choppinmama, you won’t catch me on any ride at Disney, ever. Only place you’ll catch me stationay on Disney property (other than the ballpark) is at the Virgin Records store, or House of Blues if there’s a great band playing while we’re here.

By Head Coach

February 15, 2007 12:42 AM | Link to this

Just for the record. I’ve been stone cold sober since Christmas. Let’s hope they(Braves) don’t drive me to drinking again. Now , If I can just get some of this damn weight off…… and on another note. Why hasn’t the Braves TV schedule been posted on their MLB/Braves website yet ? Elvis Andrus is missing in action , nowhere to be found on a roster anywhere.

By The Grinch

February 15, 2007 12:55 AM | Link to this

Sorry; I may be the only person I know who’s never been to Orlando. Spent a fair amount of time in Panama City, Naples, Miami, Jacksonville, Tampa and the Keys, but never went to Disneyworld. Sharing with Caroll and a photographer, huh? Sounds like a golden opportunity to me (she is a girl, right? I do know a guy named Caroll). Maybe some of Bradley’s greatness will rub off on you. :-) Yeah, going to bed sounds like a good idea. Later.

By Dr. Tchock

February 15, 2007 01:20 AM | Link to this

HC, I know it’s a lot easier to say than do and people often get a lot more advice than they need, but sincerely: congrats on sobriety.

Also, I don’t know whether it would apply, but I know a few people who have lost 20 or so pounds in a short time by ONLY cutting soft drinks out of their diets (even “Diet” drinks) and drinking water with the OCCASIONAL sweet tea. As with all such advice, might not work for everyone or be easy for everyone, but it’s an uncomplicated, healthy solution. Just thought I’d toss it out there.

By ssiscribe

February 15, 2007 06:44 AM | Link to this

Top of the morning, albeit it way too early. Been out sick and gotta be downtown today, so I rolled in here at, oh, 5:15 a.m. Oh the humanity!

(And where is JJS, by the way?).

Grinch, you’ve never been to Orlando, bro? Wow. Thought everybody under the sun had been there. It’s an hour either way, at least, to the beach. Gobs and gobs of touristy stuff. Traffic. T-shirt stands. All that stuff. Eventually, we’ll get down there with the kiddies and do the Disney World thing.

I wish I had gone to spring training when the Braves were in West Palm. If anybody goes to Dark Star, take a day and try to go down 192 to Kissimmee and check out the Astros at Osceola County Stadium (have no idea if I spelled that right; I gotta jet in like two minutes, so I’m not looking it up). Great little ballpark, intimate feel. Went there two years ago. Went to Tigertown last year. Very cool. Both places the absolute opposite of Disney, all the noises, annoying chick (hot, yet annoying) on the dugout, etc.

I love The Ballyard Once Known as Cracker Jack (or whatever in hades it’s called now) for watching a game. The extra-curricular stuff just gets to me a bit.

All right then, off we go. DOB, enjoy day one at Lake Buena Vista. Peace.

—30—

By David O'Brien

February 15, 2007 07:03 AM | Link to this

Sure didn’t expect to wake up to 45 degrees here.

Gonna be a cold weekend blast, then back to normal and then some _ up to mid-70 temps next week, maybe high 70s. But for now, chilly. Gonna hit freezing Friday night here.

OK, gotta get ready and get to park. We’ll start ever-day weekday blogs beginning Friday, and I’ll probably do some weekend ones, too.

Don’t know about today. We’ll see after we get out there. Don’t know how long gonna have to linger in clubhouse, etc, waiting for guys to show up, or how many will show to work out on a chilly morning when workout is optional….

By Shaun

February 15, 2007 08:35 AM | Link to this

O’Brien,

I was in Daytona March of ‘03 and the wind was horrible. Felt like Chicago.

Have you seen KJohnson take any grounders yet? If so, how does he look?

And how does Hampton look (if you’ve seen him throw)?

By deepinmetsterritory

February 15, 2007 09:01 AM | Link to this

Hey DOB, The new National Geographic has a piece on how Orlando became the evil empire (including it’s McChurches and other amusment parks). It’s a pretty interesting take on how Orlando has essentially become a microcosm of America over the past 40 years.

By 3trees

February 15, 2007 09:12 AM | Link to this

Wow! SP starts on my Dad’s 90th! We’re headed to FL tomorrow as well, but will only get as far as Tallahassee for the celebration. DOB - a Triumph, huh? I think that’s what Duane bit it on, better luck w/yours and that tire.

Jeff Buckley was amazing! That voice and a great guitar player/arranger. His version of Britten’s “Corpus Christi” is ethereal. Anyone else thought the lyrics to “Dream Brother” were oddly prescient?

Oh, my prediction on which Braves question mark turns out the best - All of them! Hey its spring,right?

Let the fun begin. Welcome back once and future Braves/MIB/et.al. Bloggers. Go Braves!!!

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 15, 2007 09:41 AM | Link to this

Thank you Bob for responding, and what a strong response it was. Thank you Grinch for relaying the message, and thank you DOB for the “epic.” If my ramblings had anything to do with the return of Bob, then the plan is working. Yes Bob, you are one of the 3 I was referring to. One down, two to go.

You said Until that happens, I can’t really imagine inviting good folks to being exposed to the abuse they’re apt to receive.

If they can take the abuse and stay afloat, then those are the bloggers we need. If you’re not back as a regular blogger, at least you stopped by to visit, and look at the way everyone’s spirits took a booster shot after they saw the “return of Bob.” It is indeed a good day.

By John Hoar

February 15, 2007 10:12 AM | Link to this

David, I haven’t read all of the blog, and this may already have been mentioned. There is an interesting article from the Denver Post dated about five hours ago that states that Liberty Media owns a betting odds service, DonBest.com. This company is the largest service of its kind for providing up to date odds on all sports including baseball. According to the article there is a $60 per month fee for the service. According to the author of the article this represents a direct link to gambling and is therefore a conflict of interest to the conditions of this sale and MLB. I guess it could be divested but seems like it will have to be addressed. If not…..something is wrong.

By Shaun

February 15, 2007 10:19 AM | Link to this

Let’s talk some baseball…

Rob Neyer wrote a piece about Grady Sizemore—the AL’s newest superstar—maybe the most balanced great player in the game. It got me to thinking, who is the best player and who is the most balanced great player on the Braves?

Chipper is the obvious choice for best player. Andrew is the obvious choice for most balanced great player.

But with Chipper aging, does that change anything in the near future? How about Brian McCann? Seems like a good candidate to become the best Brave within the next two or three years—a catcher with .300/.360/.500 potential every year, solid defensively. Only thing missing from his game is speed, but he’s a catcher.

By Matthew

February 15, 2007 10:30 AM | Link to this

Arkansas Hillbilly

You’ve made the Natural State proud, encouraging Bob to return and simultaneously lifting the quality level of this blog. Epic, outstanding posts lately Hillbilly. Thanks for returning, Bob.

DOB, try not to enjoy yourself too much the next few weeks. I know you probably hear this all the time, but I would love to have your job for a few days, and get to visit with the Braves players and personnel. Notice that I said for a few days only-I can’t even imagine how rough the travel is on you. Thanks for working so hard to put together a very enjoyable blog. For the last year or more (since I came on board) I have been on this site twice as much as the www.braves.com site, and I get almost all of my Braves news here. Kudos (or props) for the great blog.

3trees, in answer to your question, I am looking for a breakout season from Scott Thorman. With his intensity and judging by the comments made by Braves brass about his ability, I am looking for a big season for our 1B. I also expect a big year out of Laroche in PIT, FWIW. I think the short right field porch there will really help his power numbers, and I wish him the best.

Okay, time to teach these “precious children” about the XYZ Affair. And Grinch, that has nothing to do with an open zipper, so don’t start…:)

Go Braves!

By Jerry Falwell

February 15, 2007 10:34 AM | Link to this

Soft-Core Pornography AND Gambling? SWEET!!! Liberty looks better and better.

By Shaun

February 15, 2007 10:54 AM | Link to this

John Hoar,

I’m not a lawyer but seems like there are ways to get around that. I mean, I’m sure other corporations have their hands in things that could be deemed a “conflict of interest.”

A huge example is MLB owning the Expos/Nationals for a few years—if that’s not a conflict of interest, I don’t know what is.

…not saying it’s right or wrong, just some observations on the subject.

By Pretentious White Fortysomething

February 15, 2007 11:05 AM | Link to this

I had a dog named Django once.

By David O'Brien

February 15, 2007 11:15 AM | Link to this

Lot of folks here, including most of the pitchers, catchers and plenty other position players including Langerhans, Diaz, Orr, Thorman, Kelly Johnson … I know I’m forgetting some.

Diaz has put on some weight, said he lifted a lot more in offseason, especially legs….

Thorman about broke my hand with his grip. That dude is country strong, Canadian version….

Guys are all excited. Different vibe in clubhouse than last year, for sure. Everyone has to bite their tongue a bit when discussing the bullpen. They all catch themselves raving about it, then try to be calm….

Didn’t see Hudson, Hampton or Smoltz, but that means nothing. All they have to do is call to check in today. Don’t have to be here until tomorrow, and I know Huddy’s been here working out a couple days already anyway.

Smoltz is playing golf in warmer South Florida today, from what I hear. Probably taking advantage of his last chance to play Huizenga’s private Floridian course for a while….

Deepinmetsterritory, I definitely want to read that National Geographic story on the Disney empire. Does it point out that there are no mosquitoes at this sinister place?

3trees, thanks for noting Duane bit it on a Triumph. Nice to know as I look for dealerships here to find a new tire….

By ernesto

February 15, 2007 11:17 AM | Link to this

I’m glad spring training is about ot start but I wonder how much of a difference it really makes, in terms of decisions the team’s already made about its makeup. After all, Jurries tore it up last spring and didn’t make the team. It seems like the roster is about 99% locked. Who are the guys on teh bubble though? Prado? Orr? Bohn? Doesn’t really seem like they would have signed Woodward or Sturtze if they didn’t think they were going to make the 25.

By ernesto

February 15, 2007 11:25 AM | Link to this

A Django Rheinhardt reference on a baseball blog, sweet, even if it was meant to be obnoxious. You’ve got to admit having an erudite insufferable ahole on the blog is better than just a plain insufferable ahole.

By Shaun

February 15, 2007 12:11 PM | Link to this

O’Brien,

Looks like Orr may have to fight for a roster spot. How difficult is it to approach a guy and make him comfortable enough to talk about that sort of thing? And I know it depends on the individual but are most guys pretty understanding when you are asking questions about their major league job security?

By Matthew

February 15, 2007 12:15 PM | Link to this

I’m going on record now that Andruw will fall down while swinging at least 15 times, but on 9 of them, he will hit a home run.

DOB, or anyone else, has anyone in the medical field mentioned to Andruw the danger of swinging like that? Is there a danger? I’m no doctor, but that swing looks like it’d be awful on his back and knees. Anybody have a take?

Oh, and in case you didn’t notice, our old buddy Kerry lightenberg signed a minor league deal with the Reds.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/ You have to scroll down a little. Good luck Kerry! I almost always root for fromer Braves, unless they are playing against us.

Go Braves!

By Shaun

February 15, 2007 12:23 PM | Link to this

Matthew,

Andruw’s swing is probably not as dangerous as pitching a baseball hundreds of times every few days.

By kdbanks

February 15, 2007 12:25 PM | Link to this

ernesto-

One of the reasons for spring training is so the front office and MLB coaches can get a look at the up and coming minor leaguers that are projected to be on the team in the next 1, 2, or 3 years. Without Cox having a chance to see Jurries last spring, he wouldn’t know what to expect if and when they call him up. Same with guys competing for that 2nd base job. It’s almost like a job interview for those guys.

Even if the roster is mostly set, it’s the fringe guys that benefit the most from getting seen.

At least I think so.

By Shaun

February 15, 2007 12:34 PM | Link to this

Andruw’s swing is probably not as dangerous as pitching a baseball hundreds of times every few days.

Well, not hundreds. Maybe between 80-100. Not trying to be smart; just thought this would be kind of funny.

By MBATL

February 15, 2007 12:57 PM | Link to this

Interesting about the Donbest deal with Liberty. I thought there was a bit of a conflict even with Liberty owning DirecTV, and MLB’s contract with them. Not saying there is, but even that seemed a little odd to me. Kinda’ like MLB giving it’s licensed product sales to George Steinbrenner.

I would think MLB might make approval of the sale contingent upon Liberty’s agreement to divest itself of Donbest as soon as reasonably possible; just too much riding on MLB’s “reputation” these days. But, from reading the article John Hoar referenced, it sounds like it wouldn’t be a big deal for them to do so.

Can’t see how we could keep Orr or Prado on the team unless Diaz or Langerhans goes. Am I wrong?

By David O'Brien

February 15, 2007 12:59 PM | Link to this

Soriano’s having visa problems in the Dominican and probably won’t be here until late next week. Cox says he’s not concerned because he threw this winter and has a pitching program he’s following.

By Matthew

February 15, 2007 01:14 PM | Link to this

Shaun:

I didn’t think about it, but it is a similar motion I guess. My only concern is that it seemed as if Andruw’s back troubles didn’t begin until he altered his swing. It just looks really painful.

Soriano’s having visa trouble? Well, I guess that’s better than what my eyes saw the first time I read it. It looked like you wrote that Soriano was having vision problems…man, I need better contacts.

By KC

February 15, 2007 01:25 PM | Link to this

Ya know… I’m just not convinced that we’ve given Matt Diaz enough of a chance. The guy hit .327 over 300 at-bats last year. Should we give him a chance to show what he could do over 500 AB’s?

If you project last year’s numbers out to 550 AB’s, you would have 13 homers and 30 doubles. Those aren’t great power numbers, but if he continues to pack on muscle, he could turn into a .300/20-homer guy. I think he’s earned the opening day start with a great 2006 effort.

By Shaun

February 15, 2007 01:28 PM | Link to this

Matthew,

Could be that Andruw’s back trouble started as he got a little older.

Still, I don’t think Andruw is much of a concern—he played in 156 games last season.

By Matthew

February 15, 2007 01:34 PM | Link to this

Shaun:

Especially not in a contract year…

By KC

February 15, 2007 01:39 PM | Link to this

Also, someone once mentioned that Diaz “wasn’t any good up to this point in his career”. I would point out that he only had 119 total at-bats over his 3 previous seasons. 2006 was his first opportunity to show what he could do, an in my view he made the most of it. If his work in the weight room can boost his power just a bit… he could be a very good all around hitter. Give this guy a chance!

By Shaun

February 15, 2007 01:48 PM | Link to this

KC,

I agree. I mean, look at Diaz’s minor league numbers and it makes you scratch your head as to why the D-Rays or Royals let him go without giving him much of a shot. He’s probably never going to be an All-Star but he’s a great hitter and a very useful ballplayer, particularly at his salary. He has been a good player up to this point in his career, it’s just that he’s been stuck in the minors through no fault of his own.

By brian

February 15, 2007 02:05 PM | Link to this

what do you mean no mosquitos at Disney World? Got to be a joke.

Can’t wait for the spring training updates.

Go Braves!

By Shaun

February 15, 2007 02:18 PM | Link to this

Not much excitement on the blog today. How about this from athleticsnation.com to stimulate some discussion about common misconceptions of Moneyball:

Blez: Is it surprising to you to see Billy Beane build a team based on pitching and defense?

Rob Neyer: Not at all. As you and your readers know, Moneyball’s not about fat guys who draw walks, it’s about finding inefficiencies in the market. And those inefficiencies might be fat guys one year, Class AAA pitchers a couple of years later, and (secretly) excellent fielders a couple of years after that. It’s getting harder and harder to exploit those inefficiencies because more teams are looking for them. But they’ll always be there, and they’ll always be changing.

By 3trees

February 15, 2007 02:27 PM | Link to this

Someone help me here with the “Visa Problems”. Unfortunately, I have no experience with the DR, but it seems like every year there are problems like this (Furcal and, I think, J. Sosa last year). If the system is poor, wouldn’t the players anticipate that and start the process that much earlier (maybe they do and it STILL takes that long)? Or is the problem on the entering the US side? Not making insinuations, just wondering.

Not trying to trip you out on the Triumph thing, DOB. I’ve always had a fondness for British bikes. Not as a rider, but their sound, shape and logos are the best - Triumph, BSA, Noton. Great stuff.

By MGL

February 15, 2007 02:40 PM | Link to this

3trees - just a guess, but the holdup is probably State Dept. They take a lot longer to do things these days, including issuing pasports and probably visas.

By Mitchie-san

February 15, 2007 03:28 PM | Link to this

Just an udate… I am still alive and somewhere near the Philippines….

Go Braves, Lets get this season started already!!!

By Matthew

February 15, 2007 03:56 PM | Link to this

mitchie-san:

BE CAREFUL and Thanks!

Special thanks to all of our troops-we appreciate what you’re doing for us!

Go Braves!

By Shaun

February 15, 2007 04:03 PM | Link to this

To respond to something we talked about a couple of days ago:

Shaun, found a small discrepancy in numbers. According to Stats Inc, Francouer hit .304/.339/.637 in close-and-late situations, not the .299/.338/.611 you posted. Not significantly different, though.

However, the thing you left out was a big one _ team highs of NINE homers and 33 RBIs in those situations. LaRoche (8) was only other Brave with more than four homers in close-and-late situations, and Andruw (21) was only other Brave with more than 15 RBIs.

Francoeur had more than twice as many RBIs in late-and-close situations as any Brave other than Andruw, and had more than 50 percent more than Andruw.

Just one other stat on Francoeur’s clutch hitting: He had 53 two-out RBIs. Only player in the majors with more was Ryan Howard (55).

1) Francouer obviously should get some credit for driving in runs in the clutch, but what about the players getting on base in the clutch that set up those RBI? And if Francouer gets significantly more RBI opportunities in clutch situations—as I suspect he did given the hitters in front of him and the fact he played in every single game—doesn’t that take some meaning out of those big RBI numbers? I don’t think it’s coincidence that the top two RBI guys in the clutch were on the best two lineups in the league—doesn’t mean they shouldn’t get credit but that seems to mean something.

2) Do his better numbers in the clutch make up for his deficiencies in non-clutch situations?

Not trying to nitpick, but I think these are necessary to determine how good Francouer really was in the clutch. Francouer was not a good hitter overall last season.

By woogidy

February 15, 2007 04:04 PM | Link to this

DOB, You say you got some extra rooms? What do you say, I’ll drive down there next weekend, let me stay there and go see the Braves? no, right?, what if I brought some ladies? Ok, nevermind. Anyways, what are some good places to eat in Orlando?

By Mitchie-san

February 15, 2007 04:08 PM | Link to this

Thanks Matthew, hearing nice things like that makes it alot easier out here.

By David O'Brien

February 15, 2007 04:17 PM | Link to this

Really sounds to me like Cormier could be the fifth starter, like maybe they’re already thinking that Davies should go to Richmond to restore his confidence, to make sure they don’t have him out there throwing to big league hitters and worrying about his groin surgery, all that. Nobody’s said that to me, but in conversations I just get a feeling Cormier might be the favorite to win that job.

If it’s the case, I can see the reasoning. I mean, Davies has had inconsistent and largely disappointing seasons two years in a row, and they really want him to avoid another, to get his career going in the right direction. If you’ve got a viable fifth starter, whether it’s Cormier or a journeyman like Buddy Carlyle (bobby mentioned him today), why not go the safer route?

I also asked Bobby about possibly pursuing another starter this spring, and he really sounded like they’re happy with what they’ve got, even though, like most teams, they’d like to have more depth….

woogidy, if you bring ‘em, there’s a place for you.

3Trees, yes, the Brit bikes are outstanding. I love the retro-looking bikes in general, including old Harleys and even some old Japaneses bikes, ones that are restored to their 1970s splendor. But the Triumph is great because it looks like it was made in the 60s but is thoroughly modern mechanically. Great bike.

By Robert

February 15, 2007 04:17 PM | Link to this

Visa problems - every spring you hear about a bunch of players having visa problems

At what point do you tell a guy to apply early enough to account for the fact that there might be visa porblems?

Or is it not as simple as applying earlier?

And what a relief to know that Cox is unconcerned because he heard that Sosa-ey looked good recently, only giving up the occasional grand slam home run off one bad pitch

This as opposed to the status quo when he is unconcerned because he is too damn stupid to comprehend that there might be something deserving of managerial concern

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 15, 2007 04:21 PM | Link to this

Hey Matthew,

Just wondering if you’ve heard the latest jibber-jabber from the Fayeteville Soap Opera??

Here’s a link to Hogville.net

http://www.hogville.net/yabbse/index.php?topic=116698.0

First of all, I’ll only believe it when I see it. Second of all, I really don’t know where I stand on this issue anymore. I’ve almost become non-interested. I do know that a 24 point loss to Miss State lastnight ain’t helping the people’s patience with Stan Heath too much. Maybe that place needs a flushing worse than this blog does.

By TennesseePaul

February 15, 2007 04:29 PM | Link to this

3trees: If the system is poor, wouldn’t the players anticipate that and start the process that much earlier

Not too many ball players have been accused of being wise thinkers. Similar to Ricky Bobby. Ricky Bobby is not a thinker. Ricky Bobby is a driver.

By The Grinch

February 15, 2007 04:37 PM | Link to this

Hey, Mitchie-san, I hope your aircraft carrier runs into a tree! Just kidding, dude; gotta be contrary every time I can(and don’t worry about a hex; I built that into the statement secretly because the likelyhood of that happening in the ocean is slim). DOB, it’s a shame that in this day and age a pro ballplayer like Soriano would get stuck in another country over a little thing like a maxed out credit card. Can’t JS just call the Wal-Mart or whatever and give them his? The game must go on!

By Robert

February 15, 2007 04:38 PM | Link to this

“Not too many ball players have been accused of being wise thinkers”

This is what agents are for

By Don't drink and type

February 15, 2007 04:46 PM | Link to this

David, my dear friend. Great Web log. Kudos. While it’s not necessarily balmy there, be grateful you’re not in the ATL where it’s like, I dunno, minus-17 windchill. In the sunshine.

By MS

February 15, 2007 04:59 PM | Link to this

I like the reasoning of starting Davies at AAA. I mean, Cormier is servicable and is out of options (at least that’s what everybody here has said, although I don’t remember seeing DOB mention that. DOB, can you confirm, is Cormier definitely out of options?), and Davies has two big issues to bounce back from: the injured groin and pretty poor performances since his debut stretch. And hey, Davies is still very young (what is he 22?).
Don’t forget the Braves pulled him out of AA to the majors all of a sudden. I’d bet their plan wasn’t for him to get there so quickly, but they needed a starter and gave him a shot, but then since he pitched so well to start, it was tough to send him back down.

The truth is, he probably should have been in the minors this whole time getting more seasoning/experience, but other factors prevented that from happening (his early success coupled with injuries to the major league staff).

If Davies starts tearing it up in AAA then we’ve got a good situation on our hands (promote him to #5 and send Cormier to pen, or trade Cormier), and we don’t run the risk of further stunting his growth or confidence as a pitcher nearly as much as we would if he stunk it up again in the majors.

And let’s also not forget we’re talking about the #5 starter here. Not only do we not need that much from that spot in the rotation (mainly just 5-6 decent innings/turn), the #5 guy will get skipped a couple times in April/May due to the way the schedule plays out (although Bobby might want to give the rotation that extra too, due to the health concerns in the rotation), so the negative impact of that pitcher is not immense.

By JC FROM UT

February 15, 2007 05:13 PM | Link to this

DOB: I hope this questioned has not already been aswered, but… Do you have any idea about Mark Redman? Has he signed with anyone? And if not I would imagine his price has dropped considerably. Would the Braves have any interest in making him their 5th starter?

By David O'Brien

February 15, 2007 05:15 PM | Link to this

Robert, the Braves said Seattle initially applied for Soriano’s visa and had some problems. I have no idea what those problems were, but apparently they also affected the Braves when they assumed the task.

By Ron

February 15, 2007 05:32 PM | Link to this

DOB, with Liberty Media buying the Braves that is probably a write-off, after 5 years that they must keep the Braves, do you think they may try to move the team somewhere else such as Vegas, or somewhere?

By ssiscribe

February 15, 2007 05:42 PM | Link to this

OK, lemme say this one time and one time only: There is no way the Atlanta Braves are moving. Period.

Why would the franchise be relocated? They have a once-in-a-lifetime deal as far as the stadium goes, which was built for them, for the Olympics. They draw well, not as great as your baseball-hungry cities such as St. Louis, or Boston, or New York, but the Braves draw well when you consider the team’s been winning for a decade and a half. The team has been here for 40 years and is doing well at the gate and in the standings.

No way the Braves are going to be relocated. Even if it ever got to the point, I don’t think baseball would approve it. If the Braves weren’t going to be moved in the late 1980s, when 4,000 fans were sitting in a dumpy stadium watching a losing team, they’re not moving anytime in the forseeable future, when 30,000 fans are sitting in a nice stadium watching a winning team.

DOB, looks cold down there, dude.

—30—

By berigan

February 15, 2007 05:47 PM | Link to this

you know, when it is in the upper 30’s in Atlanta, it’s hard to think baseball is just around the corner! But it gives me hope!

By ElbravoX

February 15, 2007 06:01 PM | Link to this

Soriano’s visa problems is like Furcals. Soriano is 33 not 26. Hope the red wine analogy applies to him. Oh boy…

By The Grinch

February 15, 2007 06:26 PM | Link to this

Thank you! This is the scenario I advocated all along! Nice to know the Braves are at least as knowlwdgeable about baseball as I am; I was beginning to wonder. :-)

By Robert

February 15, 2007 06:34 PM | Link to this

“Soriano’s visa problems is like Furcals. Soriano is 33 not 26.”

Either that or his family isnt on good terms with El Jeffe the boys in the junta

El Jeffe and the Boys in the Junta - good name for a band

By MBATL

February 15, 2007 07:12 PM | Link to this

Oft-injured Kerry Wood is out again — this time because of a flub in a hot tub. The Chicago Cubs pitcher is not expected to throw off the mound for a few days after he slipped this week getting out of a hot tub at home. Wood landed on his stomach and chest.

I’ll give you even money that this turns into at least 2 weeks.

All we need now is for Mark Prior to slip on a banana peel and the Cubbies will be off and running toward another 4th place finish.

By ElbravoX

February 15, 2007 07:35 PM | Link to this

“El jeffe and the Boys in Junta” start fine tunning their skills tomorrow, should be an awesome session, I’m pumped. What’s the o/u on Mcann stealing bases?

By bruce

February 15, 2007 07:35 PM | Link to this

Who likes my speculation that because the Braves gave Oscar incentives in his contract to start that he is candidate to be 5th starter if either Cormier does not have a good spring or if Cormier has a great spring and is traded. Oscar then starts the season as fifth starter and Davies or Harrison come up when ready and Oscar returns to long relief. What do you think?

By KC

February 15, 2007 07:54 PM | Link to this

MBATL: lol… Please tell me you’re making that Wood-hot tub thing up. Please!

By N8

February 15, 2007 08:09 PM | Link to this

By David O'Brien

February 15, 2007 08:35 PM | Link to this

Ron, Braves aren’t moving. Never discussed, at least not in a couple decades or longer, and certainly not after they got their sweetheart deal on the ballpark/olympic stadium….

Scribe, a bit chilly down here. As you know, 45 degrees here seems to feel colder than 30 there. Not sure why, but it does….

yes, Cormier’s out of options. And when I asked Bobby about that today, his response made it clear he didn’t know but that it wouldn’t matter. I really believe he’s got a good shot at the fifth starter job, maybe the best shot of the candidates.

Haven’t heard one word about Redman. I asked Bobby about starters, as I said above, and he mentioned they’re happy with what they have, though them and all other teams would liek to have more depth. He said it in a way that told me it wasn’t a priority need for the Braves, at all….

By ernesto

February 15, 2007 08:35 PM | Link to this

McCann stolen bases over/under has to be 1. I think his career best is 2.

By ssiscribe

February 15, 2007 08:52 PM | Link to this

Yeah, any time it’s cold in Florida or on the coast, it feels twice as cold as it really is. Although, 25 and a little windy downtown this morning didn’t feel too great, especially getting over this stinkin’ cold.

Anyway, quick question: Buddy Carlyle? Don’t know anything about him. Does he have much of a shot, etc. Where’d he come from? Just curious.

Would like to see the Harrison kid throw a little before he goes to the minor-league camp, just to check him out. He’s probably a year away, at the least, but sounds like he’s got the goods to be good.

And props to Macay for dropping his buddy Wainwright into his quote today. Two of them used to hold a little baseball camp together at Adam’s high school field a few years ago. Good kids. Hope it’s Macay and the boys holding up that trophy this October.

As they say, hope spring eternal. Peace. The Scribe abides.

—30—

By MBATL

February 15, 2007 09:02 PM | Link to this

Manager Bobby Cox, 65, was so eager that he wore his uniform Wednesday and again Thursday. No workout, nothing to supervise on the field, but he was in uniform. “I just like to put this on,” he said.

I love it.

By ssiscribe

February 15, 2007 09:03 PM | Link to this

One more thing and I’m outta here for the evening: DOB, did you see the lede on the Thrashers’ blog today? Craig was lauding the Blueland Denzines for cracking the 100-post barrier yesterday, and gave the Braves/Man In Black/BBQ/Toes/Pie blog a compliment (of sorts).

But don’t get me started on the Thrashers. Of all the collapses in the history of my fair hometown’s sports teams, Le Thrash missing the playoffs after the way they started the season would rank up there at the top of the list.

Selah and good night, Braves Nation.

—30—

By MBATL

February 15, 2007 09:22 PM | Link to this

DOB, regarding Cox and his uniform… meant to add - good call on your part, including that little tidbit in your report. Has nothing to do with anything, but sums up the enthusiasm of spring training perfectly.

I’ve got a lot of hope for Davies (the Braves can’t afford for pitching prospects not to work out in the long term), but if Cormier can send him to AAA for a year, that would be ideal. I hope Paronto or Yates forces Boyer down too, for that matter. Guess it will come down to who gets the job done. Nice to have options.

By Mackey Sasser

February 15, 2007 09:32 PM | Link to this

does Liberty really have to hold to the team for five years? I thought, for tax purposes, it was only one. they won’t make anything on the sale in a year so there would be no gains tax. right? Somebody who knows these things help us out here.

By Coltrane

February 15, 2007 09:50 PM | Link to this

This is getting out of hand.

By ernesto

February 15, 2007 10:16 PM | Link to this

Cormier - former Crimson Tider - he will come through!!! Now if only Huddy could shake the stink of Auburn off, he might come around.

By David O'Brien

February 15, 2007 10:16 PM | Link to this

MBATL, Cox and Leyland are the most old-school and dyed-in-the-wool baseball guys I’ve ever been around, and it’s special being around that kind of thing at this time of year. That’s the one thing I really like about spring training, because guys are so much more relaxed and open.

Bobby’s sitting there today in full uniform, right down to the warmup jacket, and he’s going from meeting to meeting in it. Not even on the field.

But instead of his usual black turf shoes he’s wearing a pair of Mizuno running shoes with no socks, and still has his pants rolled up like he always wears ‘em.

Said he dug ‘em out from a box or closet in his office down there, that they were two years old and never worn. Anyway, he seemed content in them, sort of his lone concession to the day’s non-practice agenda or something, i don’t know.

Reminded me of Leyland wearing spikes all the time when he managed the Marlins (and still does wear them all the time). He’s clanging through the clubhouse in them, making that spikes-scraping-concrete sound, and the players can tell it’s him just from the sound he made shuffling in them, and he walks in, hands stuck in his waist line (he always did that, instead of using the pockets) and a smoke going most of the time.

Players absolutely loved him, just like they do Cox, who also wears the spikes a lot. They’re the only two managers who do it, far as I know. Estrada told me once when he and other plays saw Cox walking through the clubhouse hours before a game, wearing spikes despite the discomfort it had to cause in his artificial knees, it just made them want to run through a wall for him.

Leyland slipped one time on the wet concrete floor in the Marlins’ bat room adjacent to their dugout while sneaking a smoke, and really messed up his ankle. Next day he’s wearing a splint … and spikes. And they had already put a rubber mat down in that bat room.

I asked Leyland one time why he wore spikes, and he said, with a straight face, “Cause I’m a ballplayer.”

‘Nuff said.

By superman

February 15, 2007 10:32 PM | Link to this

nashville predators traded for peter forsberg today. i think they will win the stanley cup. what do u guys think?

By KC

February 15, 2007 10:50 PM | Link to this

Mackey Sasser: I’ve always heard “2-3 years” as the length of time Liberty would need to keep the team to fully realize the tax benefits.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 15, 2007 10:52 PM | Link to this

Despite what some folks on here say, Cox is a class guy. He makes you want to play for him. You have players managers who let players do whatever they want and have no control and then you have players managers who let it be known that they are in control but at the same time treat the players like men. Cox is the latter.

By The Grinch

February 15, 2007 11:31 PM | Link to this

KC, that wasn’t a joke about Wood; I read it on ESPN a couple of hours ago. Unbelievable. Yeah, Scribe; the Thrashers are starting to make me angry. Is this town cursed, or what?

By Gil

February 16, 2007 12:57 AM | Link to this

Ah spring…. The renewal of hope. The realization of the more things change, the more they stay the same. As the Braves show up for camp and we hear stories of Bobby Cox being a baseball guy and the young kids like Diaz and Thorman and Langerhans already being there and ready to go. They can hardly wait for the season to start so they can show that last season was a fluke, the aberration to 14 years of excellence and that Atlanta is indeed the “Class “ of the league.

On this very day you hear stories out of New York about Pavano being trashed by his teammate, Massina, on his desire to win and in Chicago about Woods being injured falling out of a hot tub. About Zambrano crying he is getting no respect because he is not getting more money. All those negative vibes shows it’s business as usual in those bergs. Meanwhile Washington is looking for volunteers to fill its starting pitching ranks by having a huge open tryout. Praying someone will be available to fill the void until 2008 and they still have a few fans left while they spend another 10 million or so for upgrades on the skyboxes at their new stadium.

Folks, what an exciting team we have to look forward to if you are and Atlanta fan. I think it is going to be a great season. No, we will not win every game but like Bobby Cox says, “ In a season of baseball you are going to win a third of your game and lose a third of your games, it is what you do with the other third that makes the difference.”. At least this year I won’t dread the 6th, 7th, 8th and 9th innings thinking we are going to blow another 5 run lead.

DOB…. Keep those cards and letters coming in. You have a bunch of anxious news starved fans waiting to hear of the daily adventures of “America’s Team” And oh by the way. Take great care amongst the “snowbirds” while riding your Triumph. I will refrain from saying further so as not to incur the wrath of the bog for being politely incorrect but trust me when I say I know from where I speak on this topic as a former fellow biker and a retired paramedic.

By mr baseball

February 16, 2007 02:10 AM | Link to this

For those of you who think the No. 5 starter is not that big a deal, take a look at the early schedule. Barring rainouts or Cox sending someone out on 3 days rest (not very likely), the No. 5 starter is going to make 7 starts the first 5 weeks of the season, exactly 1 fewer than Smoltz, or whoever the opening day starter is. The Braves can maybe bump No. 5 back one day a few times, but unless there are several rainouts, whoever is in the No. 5 spot is going to be pitching a lot early, and against some quality teams (Mets, Marlins twice, Cubs, Phils, Padres).

Davies is a better option than Cormier, but if Davies isn’t ready to take the job, the Braves need to have a Plan B in place, because Cormier is a stopgap at best. The Braves have frequently headed north with obvious problems unresolved (Jordan & Mondesi in ‘05; the bullpen in ‘06) and need to put a team on the field in April that will give them the best chance to win NOW, not June or July.

The Braves have already squandered a lot of the young pitching talent in the farm system for short term or no gain, and better hope that someone out there with a mediocre starter to spare covets a middle infield prospect, or a hard throwing young reliever with arm and/or head issues.

By Head Coach

February 16, 2007 02:39 AM | Link to this

Don’t worry yourself Mr. Baseball , Villarreal has that nasty slider and great change up to compliment his fastball. He is a quality back of the rotation starter if needed. Hopefully the Braves won’t need him. If I had to rank the “potential” starters it would be in this order : Smoltz , Hudson , James , Villarreal , Hampton , Davies , Cormier , Hodges , lerew and Barry. Hopefully the last three will see action in Richmond and not in Atlanta.

By Coltrane

February 16, 2007 05:25 AM | Link to this

Doesn’t DOB know that cats don’t travel well? I’m gonna spray every shoe, every article of clothing I see. He’ll be the writer everyone calls ‘Cat Box Boy’.

By ssiscribe

February 16, 2007 06:20 AM | Link to this

Grinch, I hear ya, brother. Tampa won last night; stinkin’ division lead down to one bleepin point. I think I’m going to lose what few blonde locks I have left by the time April gets here.

Six more weeks until Turner Field opens for business. Hopefully, 42 days from now, the Thrashers will have clinched the Southeast, and the Braves will be 3-0 and coming home to a rockin’ ballpark for the home opener.

Duty calls. Peace.

—30—

By ssiscribe

February 16, 2007 08:32 AM | Link to this

DOB: Just read Scott Leith’s story on the restructuring of the AJC newsroom, and was wondering if there will be any impact on you sports guys (and gals). Certainly, everybody sees the shift to digital news and breaking news in that medium, while having the focus on enterprise and investigative news as building blocks for the print product.

I know many people down on the coast who still enjoy reading the print product. Know they won’t be happy about it, but at least they can get a mail subscription.

Time for work. Everyone enjoy your chilly Friday. Later.

—30—

By CAR3BOOGIE

February 16, 2007 09:52 AM | Link to this

David…If the “Spikes Story” is a great way to start the spring. Cox and Leyland are “Ballplayers” thats why they are so loved.

Will Mackay Mcbride get a shot at a starters Job?

Keep it coming..

By KC

February 16, 2007 09:57 AM | Link to this

MBATL, GRINCH: Waiting to hear what’s wrong with Wood or Prior is almost comical. Not if your a Cubs fan, but for the rest of us… you just have to laugh when you hear that kind of stuff. Unreal! lol

By Robert

February 16, 2007 10:51 AM | Link to this

“David…If the “Spikes Story” is a great way to start the spring. Cox and Leyland are “Ballplayers” thats why they are so loved.”

Correction - Leyland is a ballaplyer. Cox is just a stupid man wearing spikes

By David O'Brien

February 16, 2007 11:10 AM | Link to this

NEW BLOG IS UP, FOLKS

Oh, and McBride isn’t a candidate for a starter’s job. He’s a situational lefty reliever.

By Don't drink and type

February 16, 2007 11:21 AM | Link to this

This Braves team reminds me _ not really sure why _ of the 1991 team. This one is stronger in some respects, weaker in others. But I think it is poised to potentially have a special season. I hope so.

Say, is this Web log just going to grow longer indefinitely? As you know, I’m completely clueless about such things, but isn’t it fairly common practice to start over with a new topic every once in a while? Just asking.

By Jim

February 16, 2007 11:34 AM | Link to this

Just saw this breaking story on the news wires:

The Braves today have fired their long-time manager Bobby Cox and replaced him with a relatively unknown named ROBERT. When asked for a comment, general manager John Schuerholtz said that he is a regular reader of the ajc blog and was impressed with Robert’s astute posts. He decided to invite Robert to his office for a get acquainted chat and was so impressed that he decided on the spot to make the managerial change. “He possesses the best baseball mind I have ever encountered in my 40 years connected with the game”, Schuerholtz said. “I am convinced we would have won at least four more World Series titles during the past 15 years if Robert were in the dugout during that span.”

There is little reaction so far from the players who have yet to be introduced to their new manager, but Chipper Jones was quick to endorse the move. “I read the ajc blog from time-to-time and have always found Robert to offer insightful comments about how we should have done things differently in the past. I am eager to meet the man and will be proud to play for him!”

For all of those unfamiliar with Robert and what he looks like, he is a rather elderly man with a bit of a paunch and gimpy knees. He is also said to have a penchant for digging into his nose during tense moments when the camera is likely to pan into the dugout for a closeup.

Schuerholtz ended his announcement by stating that he and the Braves were grateful to Bobby Cox for all he accomplished over the past two decades, but the Cox era was over now and the Robert era was about to begin.

By Jeff

February 18, 2007 10:36 PM | Link to this

Braves will not only win the pennant but the whole shooting match this year. The bullpen woes - which date back to the beginning of the great 14 year run - have FINALLY been resolved. Braves games will only last 6 innings because nobody is going to beat us after that. Afterwards maybe Bobby will sink into the western sky and let Terry Pendleton manage. He’ll be a great manager.