Braves

By TheSouthernJackAss

February 5, 2007 12:12 PM | Link to this

Woogey Boogey!…

By brad in KY

February 5, 2007 12:14 PM | Link to this

It will only be a matter of time before everyone will be complaining about how overworked the bullpen is. This will especially be the case if the pen is nothing more than a three man show.

I hope the starters go as long as they are able and don’t come out early simply because we have such a good pen. Rather, the idea should be not to stay in too long since the pen is so strong. Perhaps that’s too fine a distinction, but you get my point I hope.

By journalist jimmy smith

February 5, 2007 12:16 PM | Link to this

this journalist had did it again … posted some award-winning journalism on the last blog just before this blog appeared. and let’s hope chipper does play 150 games - that should bode well for these atlanta braves. however, should toe issues arise, it is good to know that aybar remains available to play third base. still, will someone teach aybar to run the bases? and how does he arrive from the small-ball dodgers and not know how to properly run the bases? and are his base running problems toe related? just wondering. now, pie … nothing like pie at spring training. key lime pie is a favorite in florida along with the famous mind-altering fruit pies served at disney resorts. eat with caution.

By DAP

February 5, 2007 12:18 PM | Link to this

man, i cant wait till games start. im starving for baseball. last night i found a tape with an old game from ‘98 on it. im getting a much needed baseball fix from it. keep it coming DOB!

By journalist jimmy smith

February 5, 2007 12:20 PM | Link to this

brad in ky makes a good observation.

By Steve

February 5, 2007 12:29 PM | Link to this

If Chipper plays 150 games, and Hampton gets 25-30 starts. This Division and the WS is ours!

By Bigboi

February 5, 2007 12:32 PM | Link to this

Is the Helton deal don yet?

By Porkins

February 5, 2007 12:33 PM | Link to this

Thanks for the write-up, DOB. Couple of random questions for you:

1. What happened to John Foster? It says on his Wikipedia page that the Braves released him in October. Do you think any teams will pick him up? I never got tired of that gag he pulled. Did anybody else notice that whenever they showed the bullpen, like when someone was warming up to come in, Foster would bust through the door and pull up his pants? He just sat there watching the broadcast in that room and waited for them to show the pen so he could do that. Stupid, but funny.

2. According to Bowman, Pete VW shaved off the classic hairdo we’ve all come to know and love. Is it weird seeing him now with a shaved head?

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 5, 2007 12:34 PM | Link to this

FLBravesGirl wrote—” Love the shot of the little guy in the large helmet and full uni running the bases. “

Isn’t that Pete Orr in that picture? ; -)

By Head Coach

February 5, 2007 12:38 PM | Link to this

I saw the pic of Trey Hodges in mini camp. Is he on the Braves spring training invitee list ?

By Drummerdad

February 5, 2007 12:51 PM | Link to this

DOB, Several weeks back you mentionned speaking with someone who had seen Soriano pitch in Winter Ball. If I remember right, the report was that he still looked shell shocked from his experience. Have you heard anything further on this? Thanks.

By Jim

February 5, 2007 01:08 PM | Link to this

I expect the bullpen to be a strength, not only the big 3, but also McBride, Villareal for long relief, and Boyer (if healthy and returning to pre-injury form). The best news coming from these recent blogs is that Andruw has lost 15-20 pounds. I think it will improve all aspects of his game and reduce the nagging injuries that slow him down. (Now if he goes back to the 05 swing and stops falling over at the plate, I think he will have a great year.) The biggest question mark now is if Kelly Johnson can play 2B. If that is answered affirmatively, he can be a major contributor to the lineup with his patient approach at the plate.

By Voice of Reason

February 5, 2007 01:12 PM | Link to this

I am truly excited about 2007. I wanna see what Andruw can do in a contract year. I wanna see what Hampton can do if he’s truly healthy. I wanna see what Francouer can do with a full season and a full spring-training under his belt. I wanna see what KJ can do with a job that’s his to lose. I wanna see what the ‘pen can do with some actual talent out there. I wanna see what ChuckyJ can do over a full season. I wanna see what Thor can do with the apparent confidence of his manager and GM behind him. I wanna see some kid from outta nowhere busting his butt to make the team, reminding us all of what the game is really about. I’m ready for the Braves, baby. Bring it on!

By ssiscribe

February 5, 2007 01:24 PM | Link to this

What a difference a year makes.

Just for fun, I jumped back into the blog archives a few days ago and scanned some of the musings, debates and observations from spring training last year. For the first time since 2003, I will not be joining the festivities at Lake Buena Vista, but I’m not upset; I now reside a short drive from Turner Field, as opposed to the five hours it took to get from the my former home along the Georgia coast to the capital city, and I’ll get more than my fill of the ballclub from April to (hopefully) October.

Looking back at last March, the one thing that struck me was the race for bullpen spots. There will be competition down there again this spring, but the dynamics are so different this time around. Whereas Bob Wickman, Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez make for a three-headed monster that gives the Braves a chance to shorten games by one-third, last year there were names such as Brad Baker and Anthony Lerew in the running for roster spots.

And those were guys who DIDN’T make it.

What of the ones who did? With this revamped bullpen that puts the Braves right there with the best of the National League entering the season, what of folks like Chad Paronto, Tyler Yates and the Aussie righty, Peter Moylan?

I’ll go one better. What of Joey Devine?

When I was at camp last March, Devine was blowing through the Grapefruit League like a strong wind off the Atlantic. The kid talked about not being bothered by his unceremonious debut in the big leagues in 2005, but he had a horrible two-game stretch in San Francisco on the season’s first weekend and was sent down.

But look at Devine’s numbers upon returning to Atlanta in September. In eight games, Devine allowed no earned runs (after giving up seven in two April appearances), walked four and struck out eight in 5.1 innings pitched. He’s 23 years old with good stuff. I’d give him every chance this spring to make the big-league team, and I wouldn’t bet against it happening.

Looking at the current makeup of the bullpen, Wickman-Soriano-Gonzalez have three of the seven spots locked up. I will give the next two to Macay McBride and Oscar Villarreal. The final two spots? Hard to say right now. Blaine Boyer pitched very well in 2005. Yates has great stuff. Paronto gets ground balls. Moylan was a great story.

Last year, Yates, Paronto and Moylan pitched late in close games. But the trio could be off the big-league roster this year if Boyer proves healthy and Devine finds himself. And that doesn’t even factor in the arrival of Tanyon Sturtze sometime in May.

After the past two years, though, it’s comforting to think the Braves can really push for six innings out of their starters, instead of asking them to carry the game into the eighth inning. If you’ve got a great bullpen, use it, and for the first time in a long time, the Braves have a great bullpen.

This time around, there won’t be anywhere near the number of open auditions we saw last spring for the right to pitch in the late innings.

—30—

By Kentavo

February 5, 2007 01:24 PM | Link to this

Why would you want John Foster? He is terrible.

By chip

February 5, 2007 01:28 PM | Link to this

Here’s what I’d like to know, DOB… Even a blind man can see the Braves have too much money tied up in Andruw Jones. So do you think they (a) trade him in spring training [and I’ve heard zero talk about that, so I assume JS isn’t even considering it], or (b) wait until the trade deadline and get something for him, or (c) pay him his king’s ransom and let him walk to Boston or New York next year, getting nothing in return? My guess is “c,” but I can’t see why we’d wait and get nothing for one of the great talents. Andruw is still a superior fielder, but he’s slower than he used to be, he’s bound to get hurt more as he ages and lards up, and it seems obvious the Braves need to spend more money elsewhere. Your thoughts?

By TennesseePaul

February 5, 2007 01:41 PM | Link to this

DOB: Thanks for the work and the new post. I’m so excited about this season I can hardly stand it.

GO BRAVES

By MBATL

February 5, 2007 01:48 PM | Link to this

If the ‘pen turns out as strong as it appears (i.e., most of the guys live up to expectations), I wonder if we’d consider sending Boyer down to Richmond as a starter (not an original thought, btw … one of you guys brought it up a while back).

He had a pretty good year starting at Myrtle Beach in ‘04. That’s where we could really use some depth for the future, and maybe we can afford the luxury of converting him back to starting.

Also, that would make it easier, initially, to keep Paronto - I think he’s out of options, so he’s on the team or likely gone.

By Jared

February 5, 2007 02:00 PM | Link to this

Is there no chance of Phil Stockman making the team? I thought he was really good but he has seemingly fallen off the Earth and out of everyones’ minds.

I really hate that the team is going to keep people like Stockman and Devine out so they have roster spots for Tyler Yates and Chad Paronto. Ugh. McBride, Soriano, Gonzalez and Wickman should be able to cover for Yates however.

Either way, I really love what Schuerholz has done with his trades, especially for this bullpen. It feels weird having so much confidence in that group after the last two seasons. I think he should stop with anything big trade-wise now (which he probably has) while he is ahead. I give him an A for the offseason, and an A+ if he’d just extend Smoltz already.

By AdirondackDave

February 5, 2007 02:03 PM | Link to this

The team looks real good to me, as is. I do think we are setting the bar pretty high for the Big 3 in the pen. However, even if 2 perform up to expectations we will be fine. The offense looks well above average and the starting rotation can be exceptional. I’m not worried about Thorman and Johnson even if they are mediocre which they probably may well be. Things look good for Smoltz, Jones, and Jones to lead us into the playoffs.

By ernest densey

February 5, 2007 02:03 PM | Link to this

Will receive nothing for A. Jones? It was one thing to not receive anything for M. Giles but to not receive anything for one of the 10 best players in baseball is crazy! I mean we will keep C. Jones who is alsmost six years older and plays a less crucial position. Please someone break it down for this longtime braves fan!

By Porkins

February 5, 2007 02:05 PM | Link to this

Kentavo, I didn’t say anything about wanting Foster back. I’m just curious what a former Brave with a career-impacting injury is up to these days.

By beachcomber

February 5, 2007 02:06 PM | Link to this

dob - your opening remarks on this blog — quite possibly the best lead paragraph i have ever read.

By jschiller

February 5, 2007 02:06 PM | Link to this

chip, Andruw is a 10 and 5 guy (10 years of MLB service and 5 with the same team) which gives him no-trade rights. He can veto any deal the Braves might try to make, and with Scott Boras his agent, he likely WOULD veto any deal, hoping instead to put up gigantic numbers in a place hes comfortable and turn that in to a big pay day.

And the Braves don’t want to approach him with a possible deal, only for him to reject it, and at the same time, affect their relationship with him JUST IN CASE he really IS willing to give a discount to stay.

So JS’s hands are tied.

By ernest densey

February 5, 2007 02:08 PM | Link to this

Whomever the idiot who commented that we have too much money tied up in A. Jones must be a couch potato and never played a inning of BASEBALL! There are atleast 3 Cy Young pitchers and a whole pitching staff that can thank him for their ERAs!

By jschiller

February 5, 2007 02:09 PM | Link to this

Andruw is a 10 and 5 guy (10 years MLB service time, and 5 with the same team.) This gives him no-trade rights. (He can veto any deal).

Scott Boras being his agent, Andruw would likely veto ANY deal, preferring to stay put, believing he’ll have a better year in the place he’s most comfortable, and turn that in to a huge pay day next year as a free agent.

The Braves don’t even want to approach Andruw with a trade, have him veto it, and at the same time offend him and effect their fragile relationship, JUST IN CASE he really will take a discount and stick around.

JS’s hands are tied.

By David O'Brien

February 5, 2007 02:12 PM | Link to this

Head coach: No, Trey Hodges is at the pitching camp, but signed a minor league contract and was not invited to spring training.

Drummerdad: Haven’t seen Soriano’s exact numbers (I’ll look for them now), but all reports were that he pitched much better after a couple of rough initial outings, and he said he felt great.

Chip: No, absolutely no talk of trading Andruw, now or before deadline. No way Braves would trade him this summer if they’re in the middle of a playoff race, since you’re obviously not going to get an affordable veteran back who can do all that Andruw does. They wouldn’t dash their own playoff chances by trading him away for a lot of young talent that would help them in the future but perhaps cost them a playoff spot this year.

As for “larding up,” he’s lost between 15-25 pounds, according to those who’ve seen him. I’m not comfortable predicting what he’ll be like 2-3 years from now, but I think there’s a good chance he could still be hitting 40-50 homers and playing exceptional defense for at least that long.

By 3trees

February 5, 2007 02:12 PM | Link to this

I don’t have the stats to support it and no personal vendetta, but I’ve got agree with Kentavo about Foster. Don’t ever remember him being, well.., worth remembering.

On the other hand, I had a college roomie that was bent up like a pretzlel over a woman and he WORE OUT “Like a Hurricane”. Great tune (American Stars and Bars, right?) and I think there might be 3 very long solos on that tune. Good ‘ol Neil.

Hopefully, the only problem with the pen this year will be finding enough work for everyone to keep them sharp. The medium length guys might be needed in the early going to help Hampton get off to a good start and get his sea legs again. I do remember thinking Boyer has the attitude/stuff to be very effective. Sure he comes back strong.

Looking forward to finding out how it all comes down. Go Braves!

By David O'Brien

February 5, 2007 02:14 PM | Link to this

JSchiller, well said

By ssiscribe

February 5, 2007 02:21 PM | Link to this

Jared: I was remiss in not mentioning Phil Stockman in my analysis, even if I don’t think he’s got much of a chance, based on the number of spots left down there.

Still, Stockman didn’t do anything to hurt himself in four appearances last June, allowing three hits and one earned run in four innings with four walks and four strikeouts. You can’t take a whole lot out of four appearances in June, but the walks aside, he did fine.

Again, I just don’t think with only two spots really open and at least five guys (not counting Stockman) in the mix that he’s got much of a chance.

Other responses:

— Dave, I think we’re setting the bar so high because it was so low last year, an ant couldn’t limbo under it. I’m not really worried about burnout for the bullpen, and I’m certainly not saying you pull Smoltz after six innings if he’s thrown 65 pitches and the Braves have a 3-0 lead. But if he’s thrown 90? Do you send him out for the seventh? Last year, you had to. This year, you don’t have to.

And, you also have to realize the starters have the potential (provided Hampton is healthy, provided Davies recovers, provided Tim Hudson rediscovers himself) to pitch into the seventh most every night. Then, you’ve got plenty of options, both for matchups in the seventh and eighth, and for who to use in the ninth. If you’ve used Wickman two nights in a row, no need to use him in the ninth if you haven’t used Gonzalez in a day or two.

Put it like this: If you used Wickman in the ninth on Monday and Tuesday, and you only needed Gonzalez to pitch to one or two hitters combined those two nights, why wouldn’t you run Gonzalez out there to pitch the ninth on Wednesday? There is strength in numbers, my friend.

— Densey, the Braves really don’t have a whole lot of options on Andruw right now. He is a 10 and 5 guy (10 years in the bigs; five with the same team), meaning he has first right to refuse any trade. Why would he say yes to a trade in this, his contract year, when he’s playing in an environment he knows, playing where he lives, playing for a team that should be in the playoffs and potentially the World Series, all while trying to put up another great season to secure a long-term deal on the explosive open market?

If you see Carlos Lee get $16 million a year, if you’re AJ, what do you think you can get? More importantly, what do you think Scott Boras, AJ’s agent, thinks AJ can get? And, if you’re the Braves and your payroll is at $80 million, and you already have a lot of money invested in a few core players, your hands are tied.

No matter what Andruw says — and he’s not going to rock the boat; he has far too much respect for the organization to do that — he has to make a business decision after the season. And unless something major happens between now and then, I think he’s gone. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t see a way right now that he’s here in ‘08.

—30—

By David O'Brien

February 5, 2007 02:26 PM | Link to this

Just went back and clarified comment about the Braves shortening games. Guys, it’s not like they’re going into each game going, OK, let’s just get six from the starter. That’s not what I meant. Especially won’t be the case with Smoltz, as you guys know. He’d never approach it that way.

OK, gonna do this XM radio thing right now with Steiner. Tune ‘em if you got ‘em.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 5, 2007 02:34 PM | Link to this

Off-Topic mucic note alert:

DOB, I just heard “Suspicious Minds” on my way back to work and it reminded me of the last David Allan Coe concert that I went to, when he played it in his encore medley. I’m sure you’ve seen him play before, but if you haven’t, I’d put it on your “To Do List.” Man, you never know what or who he’ll end up playing. Or looking like for that matter.

http://www.arkoutdoors.com/forum/index.php?topic=3808.40

Here’s a link to some pictures of the concert. Scroll down toward the bottom. Note the two different color Converse All-stars he’s wearing. I’ve seen him seven times, and each show had its own unique flavor.

By StingerSplash

February 5, 2007 02:35 PM | Link to this

With the additions to the bullpen, all I have to say is….Boo-yah! (hey, as bad as SS is, at least we weren’t inundated with Mr. Chris “I jumped the shark about 15 years ago” Berman. And if my buddy and fellow Neil Young fan hadn’t dropped my best of Neil Young CD in a parking lot in Whistler, I’d listen to Like a Hurricane on the way home from work today.

By Spike

February 5, 2007 02:41 PM | Link to this

Before we go over the top here and talk about how deep the starters will go, and how much improved the bullpen will be, let’s don’t forget how much experience Yates, Paronto, and Mc Bride got late in the year. All had some troubles early, but they were all thrown into spots where they had to learn on the job, and at the end of the year they were up every day at some point, even if they didn’t get in. I think the Braves have improved dramatically with the addition of Gonzalez, but I hope these guys get a chance to make the big league club because they’ve earned it. I’m also not convinced that Soriano is for real. He’s still struggling to find the strike zone and Seattle didn’t bat an eye in trading him.

By David O'Brien

February 5, 2007 02:58 PM | Link to this

StingerSplash, so true about “The Schwam!” Insufferable.

Whistler? I’m envious. You go ‘boarding (or skiing) this winter at Whistler?

Frank Wren went with his family to Whister this winter. I hate you all. I didn’t go snowboarding anywhere this winter, despite the great snow and the fact that I have free access to my sister’s family condo in Summit County, Colo. Yes, I’m an idiot.

By David O'Brien

February 5, 2007 03:00 PM | Link to this

Hillbilly, actually I haven’t see Coe. Dying to see him, though. He played here last fall when I was on a road trip, either with the Braves or during the postseason, can’t remember which.

By AdirondackDave

February 5, 2007 03:04 PM | Link to this

DOB — Could you comment on the role Bobby Cox has, if any, in decisions and more importantly, negotiations with key players? Particularly, given the sensitivity in dealing with re-signing AJ, would you think Cox (rather than JS) and Andruw do the preliminary dance (like to see you finish your career as a Brave, would a 5+option year contract work for you), etc.? It would seem that their very positive relationship could be a real help in at least the early stages of contract renewal. Or is it likely BC is out of the this part of the game?

By Rex Boaz

February 5, 2007 03:05 PM | Link to this

Rex from St. Lou. Can hardly wait for the Braves to get started. Do you know anything about Extra Innings, I haven’t seen any advertisement for the comming year. I hope it is still available. Go Braves.

By David O'Brien

February 5, 2007 03:06 PM | Link to this

Scribe, exactly right _ strength in numbers. If Wickman tired or a bit sore, or if he’s gone back-to-back, you just stick Gonzalez in one night and have no dropoff. Of ir you’ve got a save situation in which a team’s got two or three left-handed sluggers coming to bat in the ninth, you go with Gonzalez, who’s as close to unhittable vs. lefties as you can get.

Same for Soriano vs. righties.

It’s a great situation, and a huge luxury that most teams would kill for _ to have not one but two proven closers, and a third guy with closer-caliber stuff.

And yes, I should’ve included Stockman. He’ll get a shot this spring, for sure. I’m going to go back and insert him in the original post now.

By ernest densey

February 5, 2007 03:11 PM | Link to this

Thanks for shedding some clarity on my question about A. Jones. I understand that we have to remain competitive while investing and thinking about our future. We have alot of money invested in veterans older than he and honestly only Smoltzie earns his of the veterans mentioned.

A. Jones is only 30 and atleast 4-5 healthy years if not more. Don’t get me wrong I love Chipper but he in many ways like Hampton can’t play a full season. When A. Jones guarantees you 150+ games a year, a gold glove, 35+ home runs, 100+ RBIs and 10+ outfield assist

By Shaun

February 5, 2007 03:13 PM | Link to this

From the previous blog:

As for the age and when players peak… From everything I’ve read, the peak years depend on the skill you are speaking of. Different skills peak at different ages. Which is why I wouldn’t go with this blanket statement that you’ve laid out. But even still, I’d imagine the truly great players stay pretty even keal for the majority of their career only fading towards the end when they typically recognize it and retire “on top” as opposed to doing what Sammy Sosa is doing.

TennPaul,

I don’t even remember how this came up, but I agree that the way players age depend on their skill sets, and I think research backs us up on that. But the vast majority of major leaguers peak around 26-28.

As far as truly great players, most aren’t around the same value throughout their careers. As I said, the vast majority of players (goods ones, okay ones, bad ones) peak around 26-28. Most players, even great ones, aren’t as good at 22 as they are at 27. And are at least a little less productive at 34 than they were at 27.

The thing about truly great players is the years when they haven’t yet reached their peak or when they are in the decline phase are usually still head and shoulders above other players.

Take Chipper Jones, for example. Chipper’s best season was clearly his 1999 season, by pretty much any objective measure. He was 27. He has his best OBP and SLG and hit .319. If you trust RC, it was his best season by that measure. His “traditional” stats were also impressive (a career high 45 HR and 110 RBI, one off his career high). Plus he stole a career high 25 bases and was only caught 3 times.

Now Chipper was amazing before that and after that and he’s still a great player. But there is clearly an ascent phase, a peak phase and a decline phase, if you look at his career in total. His ascent phase and decline phase are/were just a lot better than a lot of players’ peak phases.

…oh, yeah, I think Adam LaRoche brought this up. LaRoche is 27 this season and we all know he had a great year last year. He should be at the very least close to as productive in 2007. I would guess he’ll be more productive given that 27 is often a better year than the age 26 season and given that Turner Field is a pitcher’s park and Pittsburgh is neutral.

By ernest densey

February 5, 2007 03:17 PM | Link to this

Guaranteed 150+ games a year (Knocking on wood), a gold glove, 10+ outfield assist, 100+ RBIs, 35+ Home runs and there is not another player on our roster that changes the aspect of the game other than maybe J. Smoltz. And he is only 30. Other than J. Smoltz who earns their check of the players over 30 years of age more than A. Jones?

His presence will only be felt after he is gone what he brings to the table. I still remain optimistic and hope we find away to keep him! Understand we have to continue to stay competitive while getting younger but he is young and a player to build a franchise around

By MBATL

February 5, 2007 03:18 PM | Link to this

I thought Nantz and Simms did a great job calling the SB. They weren’t (seemingly) caught up in the hype. Except for the long commercial breaks and halftime, the focus was on the teams and the game. I can’t watch Berman, Stuart Scott, or Michael Irvin, so just… didn’t.

DOB, do you have firm info on which of our marginal guys are out of options? It’d be interesting to know.

By David O'Brien

February 5, 2007 03:19 PM | Link to this

I also overlooked Devine. Gotta put him in the mix this spring, too. It really does appear like the Braves have both quality and quantity, plenty of good depth.

Last year they couldn’t even put together a solid seven, now they’re going to have about 9-10 legit guys available to choose from.

By BabeOnBaseball

February 5, 2007 03:19 PM | Link to this

I think the additions to the bullpen will allow players like McBride and Villareal to really thrive in the more competitive and stable environment that will form. I’m excited about both the starters and the bullpen and am pulling for McDowell to prove himself with this highly competent group.

Please visit my new blog for a female’s perspective on both the Braves and MLB in general: http://babeonbaseball.blogspot.com

By ernest densey

February 5, 2007 03:33 PM | Link to this

I truly believe the sky is the limit for this years Braves team. We are solid at every position.

I like K. Johnson at second and batting eighth. Only because I think we need a legit leadoff hitter, one that is gonna atleast put pressure on the opposing pitcher and catcher when he is on the base paths. 35-40 Stolen bases a year and a threat to score from first on a hit and run with E. Renteria

By ssiscribe

February 5, 2007 03:35 PM | Link to this

Yeah, like I wrote earlier today, what a difference a year makes down there.

Who knows what the end result will be, but I give Schuerholz a lot of credit. He knew there was no way in the world this team could go through the revolving door down there again. Injuries and ineffectiveness may rear their ugly heads again, but quality depth definitely is there.

And, I didn’t even think about Gonzalez’ effectiveness vs. lefties or Soriano’s vs. righties, but you’re right, DOB. Wow. Talk about the bullpen going from the outhouse to the penthouse, at least on paper as February dawns and the gates of Dark Star slowly open (somebody que up the hottie with the annoying voice who stands on top of the dugout down there).

—30—

By 22oz

February 5, 2007 03:38 PM | Link to this

I saw David Allan Coe a few years back at the Ga Theatre and he was basically a vegetable on a stool the entire show. Not to mention he was rather tubby and gross with an opened vest shirtless.

By Ernest Densey

February 5, 2007 03:38 PM | Link to this

I love C.James and think K.Davies has a positive upside but do we hold any “Power pitchers” in our farm systems that can touch the high 90s with some control? I remember J. Cappellan but had no movement on his fastball and we traded him for a closer that never brought his A game. So do we hold any power pitchers in our farm system?

By David O'Brien

February 5, 2007 03:48 PM | Link to this

22oz _ he ain’t exactly a handsome fella, is he? There’s rough, and then there’s David Allan Coe.

On the other extreme is the young lady referred to, the one who stands atop the dugout…. Makes the Empire a bit more tolerable.

By doc

February 5, 2007 03:54 PM | Link to this

brad, i said it several days ago and asked what the line is on what would break down first the ham(my) or toes of chipper or the pen? it will be one of the major issues with this team as its starters are 5 to 6 inning pitchers now rather than 6 to 7 which the hopeful expect. hampton, smoltz and hudson all have major issues along those lines and davies hasnt shown himself to be able to go for the long haul if he ends up in the number five slot.

two of those studs signed ended up on the injured list at the end of the season and one was rumored to be not throwing at his usual velocity. wasnt that the word on soriano david?

additionally it is sad to see cost management has left this team without a proven right side of the infield. will the 2 to 4 mil extra we didnt spend come back to bite us in the rear like it did with the non-aquisition of wickman in the off season last year? how, little depth, would have been resolved with getting back giles, keeping laroche and signing ward quickly in the off season. cost saving might cost them a fun in the post season again which was short sighted by the aol folks, seems like the gate might have been worth the wickman signing alone.

By Jeff R

February 5, 2007 03:54 PM | Link to this

Hope management doesn’t rush Harrison along. The minors are there for a reason: to make mistakes and learn how to pitch. Still think it was a mistake to rush Devine up to the majors.

By David O'Brien

February 5, 2007 03:58 PM | Link to this

Ernest, the Braves don’t have any overpowering Capellan-type power guys, but they’ve got a couple of fine lefty prospects who throw plenty hard and actually pitch, not try to overpower everybody.

The aforementioned Matt Harrison is more a Glavine type (seriously, I know the comparision gets tired, but it’s legit this time) who throws 90-92 mph with good sink, with a real good change-up, and also a good curve.

Jo-Jo Reyes throws a four-seam (straight) fastball in the low-90s, and 12-to-6 (overhand) curve and a good change. He’s supposedly got real good deception in his delivery, and deception can be huge (ask guys facing Chuck James why they can’t hit his 88 mph fastballs)

How many pure power pitchers did the Braves have during their golden era of pitching?

By David O'Brien

February 5, 2007 04:00 PM | Link to this

Jeff R, I agree with you on Devine _ too much, too soon.

They won’t rush Harrison to the majors until he’s ready, I really believe that.

By Hammy the Brave

February 5, 2007 04:01 PM | Link to this

DOB,

Don’t you think it would help the Braves to trade for a leadoff hitter with some ml experience, like Gathright or Freel? Also, shouldn’t they get a lefty power bat for the bench?

My feeling is the Braves sacrificed veteran offensive players this offseason, to upgrade their pitching. So, they should add a couple of offensive pieces to fill those gaps, and take pressure off the younger offensive players.

By Warren Haynes For President

February 5, 2007 04:02 PM | Link to this

DOB, great stuff as always. This is by far the best blog at the AJC. I always look forward to a new post.

By the way, have you heard the new tribute to The Band? If not, check it out. Pretty good stuff.

By Ernest Densey

February 5, 2007 04:03 PM | Link to this

No answers on our Power Pitcher supply in our farm system? Is Orr a potential candidate to steal atleast 35 bases? Is Big O gonna be a reliever or Starter?

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 5, 2007 04:03 PM | Link to this

Yeah, every time I’ve seen Coe in concert, he’s been shirtless with an open black vest and moody as hell. I guess if you’ve lived the life he has, you have a right to be in whatever mood you want to, though. His physical appearance makes Wicky look like a choir boy.

By Ernest Densey

February 5, 2007 04:09 PM | Link to this

Thanks a million Mr. O’brien but unfortunately I have been given to the opportunity to watch plenty of Post Season baseball that did not include my Braves and noticed that no matter how good of a year a pitcher has, power pitchers dominate in the playoffs! Just wondered if we had any in the works. Plus with all the JUICE filtering through the major leagues right now it seems we have to try and match the power. Thus giving the juiced player less time to react to a pitch and launch one!

By james

February 5, 2007 04:13 PM | Link to this

DOB, is not anthony lerew considered a power pitcher. I heard his fastball is up there in the high 90’s. Also, what were Raefal Soriano’s offseason stats?

By The Mysterious Rhinestone Cowboy

February 5, 2007 04:15 PM | Link to this

Somebody shoot out that spotlight.

Spotlights ain’t nothin’ but jive.

Roll me a smoke, gimme som coke,

Treat me like I am alive.

Tell all the ladies I’m single.

Tell Lonestar Beer that I’m dry.

Everyone’s lyin’ ‘bout livin’.

Everyone’s livin’ a lie…..

By BosnianBaseball

February 5, 2007 04:16 PM | Link to this

What ever happened to Jung Bong and Trey Hodges?

By Shaun

February 5, 2007 04:24 PM | Link to this

Jeff R and O’Brien,

It’s hard not to rush a guy to the bigs if you need a pitcher and he looks impressive. You look at guys like Francisco Rodriguez and Joel Zumaya, and think it’s hard not to take a chance on a guy who looks ready if you are trying to win a World Series.

But I do think it should have been a concern when he gave up those grand slams.

Young pitching is the biggest mystery in baseball. If someone could come up with something that can give you at least a little bit of an idea which young pitcher would succeed and which would not, you’d be loaded.

By Daybed Wagmoe

February 5, 2007 04:25 PM | Link to this

dave, nothing about saturday’s fanfest?

i don’t want to just complain about it, because it’s a great opportunity for fans to go out and meet players and coaches, go out on the field, and get excited for the season. it’s a special treat for us, and it’s really great of the players to come out and be a part of it. that said, if it’s for the fans, it would be nice if the braves’ organization went all out, which i don’t feel they did.

for one thing, scheduling all of the big names in different rooms during the same time limits the number of big-name autographs, and i found that to be disappointing. i mean this with no disrespect to the relievers, coaches and backup players, because those were the guys i met and some of them were pretty friendly. mike gonzalez was really kind, as was glenn hubbard; lance cormier showing me his pitching grips was a highlight of the day. however, having francouer and mccann in different rooms for the first session meant choosing between one of them, and for the third session, one had to choose among chipper, bobby cox, tim hudson, and chuck james. the second session’s only big name was renteria; other than that, it was a bunch of second-tier players. i think most people chose to spend the second session in line for the 3rd session, which makes the day all about standing in line. it would’ve been better if they moved one or two of those bigger names to the second autograph session.

i had a great time during the day, and i thought that the organization did very well by giving out free hot chocolate and having autograph booths in the lexus level and 755 club, thus keeping us warm. it would’ve been really nice to have a chance to meet smoltz, andruw, or wickman, but i understand that those guys have got their personal lives and weren’t able to make it.

all in all, i don’t feel that the organization made every effort to make it the best experience possible. it seems like they were more concerned with getting through the day. at 4:45, after i got bobby’s autograph, i tried walking to the hudson booth, but they had closed off that entire section of the lexus level, saying that everyone else had left and noone was even down there. the field was cleared by that time too, with no more pop-up challenge or bullpen throwing.

perhaps i’m sounding like one of the braves’ spoiled fans that laroche was talking about, but i consider myself to be one of the more dedicated fans. i never miss a game if i can help it, and i make a strong effort to attend as many games as i can to support them in person and to watch the game (not drink beer or do the wave). i’ve never given up on this team, even in june of last year, and i’m on the internet every day in the offseason looking at what they’re doing for the upcoming season.

By Ernest Densey

February 5, 2007 04:32 PM | Link to this

The couple of times that I watched A. Lerew pitched he didn’t touch the mid 90s . I could be wrong.

The leadoff position is crucial I agree. Is there not a possible solution via trade? Like Endy Chavez (Mets), Shane Victorino, Curtis Granderson or Carl Crawford?

A couple of years that rumor M. Texieria to the Braves, why did we never complete this one, thus giving us a 300/30/100 guy?

Lastly could we ever obtain N. Swisher or would we have to give up too much because I just like his game, everything about him! Would make a nice acqusition in left field

By Armstrong

February 5, 2007 04:43 PM | Link to this

Hey, this may not sound too smart, but I like the idea of Matt Diaz getting a shot for leadoff. I mean, he hits really well, has good speed and hustles. Whatever happened to the idea of him playing first from last year? Maybe have him and Thorman battle it out…

By MGL

February 5, 2007 04:49 PM | Link to this

Daybed, sound like you are a truely dedicated fan. I wish there were a lot more and we would not be living with the $80M payroll. Unfortunately, I live in the land of the Evil Empire, and business keeps me from going to games. Keep up the good work!!

By StingerSplash

February 5, 2007 04:54 PM | Link to this

With all the bullpen contestants once you get past Wickman, Gonzalez and Soriano, does that mean the Braves either hope someone or two accepts a minor league assignment, or are we looking at a possible deal to shore up another position of need? Everybody wants middle relief near the trade deadline. Why not in spring? And is Hampton expected to be ready to go on Opening Day, or is going to need some more time? He looked like he was just beginning to turn it around before the surgery.

By brian

February 5, 2007 04:55 PM | Link to this

Harrison’s minor league career sounds a lot like Chuck James. Hopefully he can come along just like Chuck. Not a bad 1-2 lefty combo in the starting rotation. If Davies pans out there is Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz for the next 5-7 years

By bruce

February 5, 2007 05:01 PM | Link to this

Dave, Please expound on what you mean when you write… because they completely shed the mental restraints and aren’t concerned with anything other than making a big pitch when they have to.

I am not sure I understand what you are telling us.

Wow… hearing these updates is really great and exciting… really looking forward to the season! Thanks! Bruce

By michaelmike

February 5, 2007 05:09 PM | Link to this

Bullpen sounds like a strength, but I worry about the starters. Smoltz was 16-9 last year with an solid ERA at 3.49, but he’s not getting any younger. I’d like to believe he can pitch until he gets his AARP card, but that probably won’t happen. Hampton was good but not great before he was hurt (13-9 with a 4.28 ERA). I’d love to see him go 22-4 like he did in Houston, but … see – there’s the second but. Hudson has been a real disappointment (13-12, 4.86 last year). No but this time but a maybe he can turn it around. Davies has a lifetime ERA of 6.38 in 151 major league innings. Is he a major league pitcher? Alas, I have little faith. Villareal seems like a good sort to have around, if nothing else he’s lucky, winning nine games last year and appearing in the leader boards early in the year like he was on par with Dontrelle Willis. I have my own nickname for Paronto, I call him Sad Chad which isn’t really fair or kind, but one must remember he gave up 53 hits in 56 innings. That’s my take.

By KC

February 5, 2007 05:18 PM | Link to this

michaelmike: “Hampton was good but not great before he was hurt (13-9 with a 4.28 ERA)”

I’m not sure what you’re going on there with Hampton. From the all-star break in 2004 until he went on the DL in 05, Hampton went 13-2 with a 2.54 ERA.

From the all-star break of 2003 until he went on the DL in 05, he went 26-13 with a 3.44 ERA.

So again… not sure where you’re getting that.

By Fed Up

February 5, 2007 05:30 PM | Link to this

DOB:

Of course, AJ has lost weight. I bet he comes into spring looking like Superman. After all, every RBI over 100 will be another $500,000 per year on his next contract with the Yankees. But for most of his career, he came in looking like Baby Huey, saying that he’d burn off the fat in the summer. No wonder we haven’t been back to the Series since ’99.

By michaelmike

February 5, 2007 05:31 PM | Link to this

KC, In 2004 Hampton was 13-9, 4.28. Sure he had a good streak before he was injured but pitching is cyclical. Hampton was dynamite in Houston, fair in NY, awful in Colorado – which is to be expected. And he’s been pretty good here. All I’m saying is that he wasn’t Sandy Koufax before he got hurt, not that he wasn’t a solid pitcher. And don’t forget, he can swing the bat as well.

By BamaBrave

February 5, 2007 05:33 PM | Link to this

Hey Bruce…Here’s my take on what DOB meant… the “mental restraints” come from lingering concerns about a surgically repaired elbow, and that it might “break” if you go all out. Until you have complete confidence that everything has healed and is OK, you’re gonna think about it to some degree. Here’s hoping Hampton gets past all that quickly…

By Oldtimer

February 5, 2007 05:35 PM | Link to this

DOB

I liked McCann’s “The Three Horsemen”. I hope it catches on. On Chipper playing with his kids instead of training, I wish he had at least said he was doing a lot of swimming. At least swimming lengthens the muscles making them less susceptible to injury. Lord knows he needs that.

By "Big Mac" Jones

February 5, 2007 06:07 PM | Link to this

Burgers swimming in grease. French fries swimming in ketchup. Will that lengthen the muscles?

By jschiller

February 5, 2007 06:18 PM | Link to this

I think that’s a great point about the effect of the bullpen on the starters.

If Soriano and Gonzalez and Wickman do what they’ve always done, we can hope for just ONE of these three to be true:

1.) Villareal has turned a corner and really is the pitcher that went 1.84 ERA in 15 appearances in Mexico;

2.) Blaine Boyer comes back from injury and pitches like he did as a rookie in 05 (3.11 ERA in 42 games.)

3.) This is the year Joey Devine puts it together and pitches like a first round draft pick is expected to.

Can you imagine if ANY of those guys was our FOURTH option? Then to have Macay McBride as the situational lefty..

That would make for the kind of bullpen that teams talk about in pre-game meetings. This kind of bullpen allows our starters to put it all out there, not pacing themselves for 7 or 8.

But it also puts pressure on the other guys, brings out the aggressivenes in their hitters, thinking ‘We better get to these guys before we get into the heart of that bullpen.’

Alot has to go right, but this bullpen really could have that effect.

By MBATL

February 5, 2007 06:27 PM | Link to this

We should really keep in mind that we can’t expect Wickman to post a 1.04 era next year, as he did in his time in ATL last year. Every reason to think he’ll be solid, but it’s not realistic to think he’ll be unhittable.

For his career, he’s been good, but not THAT good. He and Gonzo both give up some baserunners, meaning that it won’t always be “lights out.” I like both these guys and am glad to have ‘em, but let’s not assume they’re perfect.

By TennesseePaul

February 5, 2007 06:27 PM | Link to this

Smoltz was 16-9 last year with an solid ERA at 3.49, but he’s not getting any younger.

Last season we had no bullpen. So the starters records didn’t really reflect the goings on during their starts…Below you will find the game records for each starter, regardless of if they were awarded the W or L.
Player W L RA RS
Smoltz 20 15 3.94 5.00
Cormier 3 6 3.67 3.11
James 11 7 4.33 5.67
Davies 5 9 6.93 6.14
Hudson 21 14 5.06 5.94

Smotlz earned every L on there and was robbed of at least 5 W’s by the pen.
Cormier was very frickin good but recieved no run support. I think the bulk of that 3 run average per game he started came from one start. Typically, when he took the field, Pratt, Langerhans, Prado, and Orr were in the line up.

I think Smotlz is going to do well this season. Probably better than last season. He showed some fatigue late in the season, but that was after watching every effort he put up there get dashed to pieces. I expect a lot of these guys to still be in good spirits down the stretch run due to the improved bullpen.

By Head Coach

February 5, 2007 06:30 PM | Link to this

Elvis Andrus is A.W.O.L. I can’t find him on any of the Braves minor league rosters. Must be a glitch.

By DonCoburleone

February 5, 2007 06:41 PM | Link to this

“I am truly excited about 2007. I wanna see what Andruw can do in a contract year. I wanna see what Hampton can do if he’s truly healthy. I wanna see what Francouer can do with a full season and a full spring-training under his belt. I wanna see what KJ can do with a job that’s his to lose. I wanna see what the ‘pen can do with some actual talent out there. I wanna see what ChuckyJ can do over a full season. I wanna see what Thor can do with the apparent confidence of his manager and GM behind him. I wanna see some kid from outta nowhere busting his butt to make the team, reminding us all of what the game is really about. I’m ready for the Braves, baby. Bring it on!”

Well said, you just made me totally pumped for the season to start Voice of Reason. Especially now that football is over, baseball season can’t come soon enough…

By brent

February 5, 2007 06:53 PM | Link to this

DOB,

I think most baseball fans undersand what is meant by “shortening the game.” You shouldn’t be required to come in and explain yourself on every last word/statement.

That being said, let’s hope our offense if proficient enough to make the “6-inning game” a reality, and not just a dream.

Chipper: I have my concerns. He can say he wants to play 150 games; but, what we’ve seen the last 2 years is an inability to do this. If the situation last year was truly due to the anomaly of getting injured on a wet field in April, in San Fran, then so be it.

But, to me, saying, “Well, if his feet start bothering him, then we’ll sit him,” just begs for danger.

Why not allow him to rest his feet once a week, or so, and try to stave off these foot problems?

I hope that Cox’s comments and Chipper’s desire to play everyday, are founded in an understanding that his feet are not likely to start barking.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 5, 2007 06:57 PM | Link to this

While I have stated emphatically and repeatedly my belief that JS needs to make a trade for an everyday LF (Cabrera would be nice), I like this team a lot. Isn’t funny how things can change in the course of a year. This time last season we were all scared as hell about the bullpen. The only three guys we had any confidence in were James, Boyer, and McBride. James and Boyer got hurt. Boyer was lost for the season and James was forced into the rotation. McBride did come through despite a rough beginning. We had an uneasy feeling about the rotation and then watched it fall apart within the first two months of the season.

This year things are so differently. We feel as confident about the bullpen as we have in the last 15 years. Well, at least most of us. Some of us will never be happy. The rotation has some questions but because of the bullpen it doesn’t have to be great. Just good.

I also wanted to interject the whole “starters only going six innings” thing. DOB addressed it pretty well. People are just blowing comments out of proportion. Of course, the “big three” aren’t going to be in every game. That is asinine! The point of the comment is now the Braves can shorten the game to six innings when necessary. I think some are missing the big picture. This rebuilt bullpen will greatly help the starters. The starters no longer have to feel that they must go seven and eight innings, which backfires and they wind up only going five or so because they are overthrowing. I saw Hudson do it time and time again last season. Perhaps, his conditioning was part of the problem but the truth is he felt too much pressure because he knew the bullpen would blow the lead or a tie or allow a close deficit to become a blowout. The starters will have a completely different mindset this year. Think about how many times Cox had to push Smoltz, James, Horam, Thomson, and Hudson longer than he wanted to or should have. I can remember three or four starts last year that Ramirez went 8 innings when he should have been pulled after six. Besides its not only the “big three” that makes this bullpen strong but McBride, Boyer, Villareal, and either Paronto or Yates will only solidify the pen. All of those guys had strong seasons last year but it took them awhile to get in a rhythm. They were all depended on too heavily and they were simply either too young or too inexperienced or both to be relied upon that much. That is why any good bullpen needs some veteran presence. Insert Wickman and Sturtze and young guys who now have a good solid season under their belt.

Spring should be quite interesting since the Braves really have about six guys competing for the last two spots. Last spring they were taking applications like a Home Depot during the Holiday season.

By David O'Brien

February 5, 2007 07:00 PM | Link to this

Michaelmike, there’s realistic, there’s skeptical, and then there are the couple of posts you’ve put up this afternoon. My god, man, are you always so upbeat?…

By David O'Brien

February 5, 2007 07:06 PM | Link to this

Bruce, I was just referring to Roger being cautiously optimistic while pointing out that some guys coming back from T.J. or other arm surgery take longer than others before they stop worrying or even thinking about their arm when they’ve got to dig down for a little something extra to make a great pitch. He’s not saying that’ll be Hampton at all, in fact the Braves believe he’s so strong mentally that it’ll help him return to form quickly.

But he was just pointing out that some guys, when they come back, are still worried about reinjuring their arm, even though they needn’t be worried. It’s just natural. They might hold back a little out of concern or fear.

By journalist jimmy smith

February 5, 2007 07:15 PM | Link to this

EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. (AP) -Chicago Bear Brian Urlacher suffered a toe injury in the Super Bowl and will not play in Saturday’s Pro Bowl.

further proof that toes are not to be trifled with.

now, baseball …

say, for instance, chad paronto and tyler yates are neck and neck for the last spot in the bullpen - how can that be fair to paronto who has no neck?

and, doc, it is good to read doc is back on this blog. doc, the toe will go before a whammy to the hammy.

By KC

February 5, 2007 07:30 PM | Link to this

michaelmike: “Sure he had a good streak before he was injured but pitching is cyclical”

Dude, “cyclical” had nothing to do with it.

Mike Hampton was bothered by a hamstring (might have been a groin issue… can’t remember which) that caused him to miss 5 starts over the first half. He got healthy, and proceeded to go 13-1 in the 2nd half of the season.

He picked up where he left off in 2005, going 4-1 with a 1.83 ERA over 9 starts before going on the DL.

Overall, here’s what you need to know. When Mike Hampton came here, his head and his mechanics were totally screwed from pitching in Colorado. It took him a half a season to get things ironed out. But since the all-star break of his first season in Atlanta (2003) until he went on the DL in 2005… Mike Hampton went 26-13 with a 3.44 ERA.

Again… going back to your original statement “Hampton was good but not great before he was hurt”

When Hampton went on the DL, the dude was coming off a stretch that saw him go 13-2 with a 2.54 ERA. Sorry man… but you’re just plain wrong on this one.

By David O'Brien

February 5, 2007 07:34 PM | Link to this

I was just at Starbucks and was shocked to hear the Doors’ “Roadhouse Blues” on the store stereo. Just didn’t seem right.

And in Paris, Jim Morrison rolled over in his grave….

Armstrong, Bobby mentioned Diaz on Friday as a possibility to get some time at 1B. He worked out there a lot and had no problems taking grounders, making the throws, etc., though it was just during BP.

By DonCoburleone

February 5, 2007 07:46 PM | Link to this

“That being said, I think Braves fans will get their chance to pack “The Ted” this October after an off-season full of exciting trades. I think every Braves fan will agree that the Achilles heal of the 2006 squad was the bullpen. If even half of the blown saves last season were erased (the total number is something like 37 out of 47 save opportunities blown), the Braves easily would have been playing on into October. A new wind is blowing, however, and it’s name is Bob Wickman. After converting 30 of 34 save opportunities in late July, August and September, when he joined the Braves from the Dodgers, Wickman proved to be the solid closer the Braves needed. While last season it was too little too late, 2007 is a different story.”

I checked out the “BabeOnBaseball” website and blog, and the quote above was taken directly from her website… God I wanna marry this chick… She’s hot, a Braves fan, and clearly a total airhead… PERFECT!!!

By ncscoots

February 5, 2007 08:01 PM | Link to this

My gosh, has it come to this: “The leadoff position is crucial I agree. Is there not a possible solution via trade? Like Endy Chavez (Mets), Shane Victorino, Curtis Granderson…”? Joey Gathwright? The ubiquitous Ryan Freel? Is it really possible that otherwise knowledgeable (I guess) fans would seriously consider these names as UPGRADES?!? I stand befuddled, if so.

DOB, I wouldn’t exactly characterize low-90s heat as Glavine-like. Didn’t Millwood top out at about 92? Seems to me that Kevin is a better comparison to Reyes, in particular. Haven’t seen Harrison, though, so can’t really comment there.

By ncscoots

February 5, 2007 08:05 PM | Link to this

Jim Morrison and Starbucks…another sign that the apocalyse is near.

By KC

February 5, 2007 08:09 PM | Link to this

nscoots: When Millwood was at his best, his fastball often clocked around 93-94. When he wasn’t, it was generally 2-3 MPH lower.

I don’t think that it was the 2-3 MPH drop in velocity that caused him to get hit. Rather, I think that slight drop in velocity was a symptom of mechanical slumps that he often went into.

By The Grinch

February 5, 2007 08:42 PM | Link to this

DonC, how could you tell if she’s hot or not? I went there and couldn’t find a pic. Not a good sign; she’s probably 400 pounds and types in between mouthfulls of fried chicken and cake icing.

By james

February 5, 2007 08:55 PM | Link to this

anyone know Soriano’s winter numbers? Dob, you mentioned that you would find out but you have not posted it yet.

By mr baseball

February 5, 2007 08:59 PM | Link to this

Sorry to interject a dose of reality into the discussion, but some folks are taking a whole lot for granted in their pre-season, rose-colored-glasses view of the team. The Braves have 3 positions, 2 of which are key offensive production spots, that have some large question marks attached and more than a few health concerns among the pitching staff.

There is legitimate reason for optimism regarding the bullpen, but this notion that the Braves have suddenly shortened games to 6 innings is way premature. As I have posted previously (to little effect), the manager has not exactly proven himself to be the shrewdest in the majors at handling a bullpen, regular and especially post-season.

If he sticks to his pattern, which is assigning specific roles to his relievers, he is going to burn out a few of his go-to guys, while relegating others to lesser roles, until the nights when he’s forced to use them in a more critical situation.

How is Cox going to give Wickman a night off as closer if Soriano and Gonzalez are always pitching the 7th and 8th in front of him? Will he allow McBride or Yates the occasional late-game set-up opportunity, especially if the lead is more than a run or 2, or will he manage on auto-pilot and repeatedly trot out Soriano and Gonzalez until one or both break down?

This idea about just getting 6 innings out of the starters is dangerous. That requires 3 innings out of the bullpen, which is not advised, since there are going to be plenty of nights when the starters go out much earlier. The key is 7 innings (at least one of the big 3 gets the night off, more if the game isn’t that close), and at an average of 15 pitches an inning, that comes to 105 total, which is easily doable by most starters not named Maddux.

On paper, the team is in a lot better stage than it was last season, mostly due to the general manager’s rather tardy realization that you can’t go into the season without a semblance of a bullpen. All of you heaping praise on the GM should think for a minute and wonder how an alleged genius allowed such a thing to happen last year, but I have come to learn that criticism of the M & GM are frowned upon here, so I’ll leave at that.

24 is coming on. Bye.

By stew

February 5, 2007 09:21 PM | Link to this

SIGN ANDRUW! SIGN ANDRUW! SIGN ANDRUW! FOR 16 MILLION - IT’S A NO-BRAINER AND A BARGAIN! HE’LL TAKE IT! JUST SIGN HIM!

By jschiller

February 5, 2007 10:18 PM | Link to this

mr. baseball, the GM, in order to create some semblance of a bullpen, had to let the once-offensively-capable second baseman walk, and trade the newly-offensively-capable first baseman, thus creating two of the three holes you mentioned.

With the offense that GM had, and with a starting rotation that looked to be well set, and being without further resources, you could say he just crossed his fingers that certain unknowns would come through in the bullpen. Didn’t happen. A lot of guys got hurt, and a lot of guys just flopped.

Lesson learned. So he freed the money and made the trades and now the naysayers will point to the holes this created in his offense.

Unless you’re managing the Yanks.. or the Mets… or the Red Sox.. or hell, the Cubs, now, you’re going to have to make compromises, balance your budget by making the most of your strengths and hoping for the best on your weaknesses.

The 14 consecutive division titles say more than the one third place finish. And this guy won in Kansas City, too.

By Tomahawkin

February 5, 2007 10:22 PM | Link to this

D.O.B. anymore 411 on the conditioning of other guys in the lineup, I’m curious 2 know who has beefed up, or fattened out this offseason

I relly hope we do see a 150-155 game season from Chipper this year, I feel that he has a lot to prove, furthermore shut some of these people up (Those that don’t watch the games) up, I get sick of all the Chipper bashing…

I think we will end up cutting one of the guys in the pen, preferibly Yates, before the start of opening day, just to see the whole roster not looking like anything it is now come late September…

Oh yea, Da shytterBowl, AKA The Superbowl, Drove me Nuts, I didn’t watch the game out of protest…but ESPN drove me crazy with all the overexposure, it did on analyzing the game…The Game is Done ESPN, shut the hell up, because everyone in the country know who great Peyton Manning was even before he won the big one….

It’s time 4 baseball bytches

By Tomahawkin

February 5, 2007 10:25 PM | Link to this

Oh yea, while I’m bytching about ESPN, I ran across this quote in the philly.com Forum….

“I almost wanna spit in there faces hahaha that may be a thread “if you could spit in the face of someone on ESPN who would it be” hahaha. Idk what they do with sports it what MTV did to music in my opinion.”

That Piece was lovely

By Tomahawkin

February 5, 2007 10:28 PM | Link to this

—-Mr Baseball—- I think our offense will be streaky, especially with no proven leadoff man…I think this lineup will remind me off the anemic offense we had Early (The first 3 months) in 2001…

By TennesseePaul

February 5, 2007 10:28 PM | Link to this

This idea about just getting 6 innings out of the starters is dangerous. That requires 3 innings out of the bullpen, which is not advised

No one is asking for every starter to go six innings only, every night. Merely that, on the nights when the starter isn’t entirely on and takes 100 pitches to get through the sixth, we have the potential lock down bullpen to still churn out a win. Juxtaposed with last year’s situation when the starters struggled to get through 6 innings only to have the pen come in and give up 8 runs in a third of an inning. It is certainly an improvement and reason to be hopeful.
3 positions with question marks… last year from one of those positions we recieved 14 HR and a .280 average which helped put the Braves second in the league in offense, The players for this position haven’t left; one more has been added into the mix. One of the other spots has to some how manage to play in 142 games and hit better than .262 to be an improvement over the previous season. As for the third and final spot… he has big shoes to fill indeed. We all hope he can do so with some level of consistancy and less than 128 Ks. All from the 7th or 8th spot in the order.
Non realistic hopes? I think not.

GO BRAVES

By Tomahawkin

February 5, 2007 10:31 PM | Link to this

DonC, you’re beginning to sound like me, when It comes to talking about partying with Dumb Sorostitutes, I think Grinch and myself are starting to rub off on the other cats up in here…

Nothing like partying with Chicas who Support Dem Braves…

By Tomahawkin

February 5, 2007 10:35 PM | Link to this

KC, I saw Millwood dominate the Astros in the NLDS in 2001 and he was 96-97 on the gun, That’s really why I was p—d…off when he was traded

But he was a totally different pitcher when he was in Philly…We used to rock him…Hope he comes back around someday….

By Kentavo

February 5, 2007 10:36 PM | Link to this

Hey DOB, you should should come to Myrtle Beach for Spring bike rally, catch David Allan Coe at the House of Blues, and tell your AJC bosses you’re doing “research” on the Pelicans.

By TennesseePaul

February 5, 2007 10:37 PM | Link to this

and clearly a total airhead…

LOL! I was reading that thinking, what the hell season was she watching? You summed it up well DonC.

By Mike

February 5, 2007 10:50 PM | Link to this

The biggest question regarding weather andruw comes back in 2008 seems to be weather or not the braves have enough money in their self-imposed 80 million dollar budget. Andruw might get offers of about 20 mil a year from other teams but he did say that if the braves offered him around 16mil a year for eight years that would probably accept that deal. Now, in order for the braves to make that kind of offer, knowing that guys like mccann, francouer, and james will all be getting hefty raises in the near future the braves will have to cut ties with some players with higher salaries. In all liklihood Edgar Renteria and Mike Hampton are the expendable players. Don’t get me wrong they are both terrific players but with Escobar, Lillibridge, and Harrison waiting in the wings those spots would be replaced without losing much production. In order for this to happen though Hampton and Renteria would need to have good years to increase their trade value, which I think is very likely because they’re both solid ballplayers and athletes. Hamptons and Renterias salaries would free up between 15to 25 million( im not sure how much of hampton’s salary the braves are responsible for) and that def leaves room to make andruw a fair offer as well as pay everyones raises

By jschiller

February 5, 2007 10:53 PM | Link to this

I found ‘heal’ instead of ‘heel,’ we blew 29 of 67, not 37 of 47, Wickman saved 18 of 19 for us. And Wickman came from the Indians, not the Dodgers… Did I miss any?

By OddJob

February 5, 2007 11:14 PM | Link to this

No doubt! if these guys are healthy and pitch too last years levels,they will change this staff immensely. Mr Cox got it right it’s not just the pen, but starters as well. If they can pitch six or seven knowing the pen is up to the task of turning the lights out on the other side they are freed to be more agressive it’s more than the sum of it’s parts. I’ll go one step further,if you have a one or two run lead with a great pen the option of resting regulers and putting your best defenders on the field not only makes you better defensively but could cut down on injuries,and leave the regulars and starters fresher for the long season. call it symbiotic.

By David O'Brien

February 5, 2007 11:28 PM | Link to this

OK, a few of you took the “six innings” stuff to the absolute illogical extreme. Shortening a game to six or seven innings is a common figure of speech in baseball to describe a team with a lights-out bullpen, more about what that team CAN do rather than what they plan to do every night.

Of COURSE the Braves don’t plan to get six innings at most out of starters every night. They’ll have some complete games, plenty of seven- and eight-inning jobs, etc, just like always. The whole point is that they won’t have to push starters longer than necessary, if they’re showing fatigue or if they’ve pitched a lot recently and the ‘pen is rested, etc.

No one is implying the Braves plan to use a starter for six innings, then each of those three relievers for one each night. You’re totally taking things out of context. It only means the Braves will feel great when they have leads after six innings now because they feel very good about their ability to close it out, because they can turn it over to two or three of those stud relievers if the starter is fading.

That does NOT mean using those all three of those guys in 90 wins or whatever. Come on, folks. Stop taking things so literally.

And James, no, I haven’t found Soriano’s winter numbers. They’re the only Braves winter numbers I can’t find on any of the sites, including the Baseball America insider site. I’ll try to remember to ask the Braves tomorrow if they have his final numbers.

By David O'Brien

February 5, 2007 11:32 PM | Link to this

T-hawkin, can’t tell you condition of position players yet because the only ones who were at pitching camp other day when I sent were in full sweats (it was cold).

But several people were talking about Andruw, guys who’d seen him at the field last week. Said he looks great. I haven’t see him yet. I’m going down there again in next couple days, but don’t know if any position guys will be there.

Won’t really be able to give you a report on that stuff until they start showing up at spring training late next week. Some will get there before the end of next week, earlier than the position players’ report date.

By OddJob

February 5, 2007 11:46 PM | Link to this

O’brien - What are the chances of Andruw being re-signed or traded in season ?

By Tomahawkin

February 5, 2007 11:51 PM | Link to this

Thanx D.O.B. for the 411, Hell I bet You’re ready to get down to Orlando, and Escape the winter of the South…

The whole 6-inning game theme, usually only happens once every other game, I guess, There’s so many intangibles that affect that whole concept, The last I seen It work was in Houston when they had Lidge, Dotel, and Wagner a couple years back, That Combo was Sick…I’ll have to Read the Athlon Sports Baseball Annuals, to see If they compare our Bullpen to theirs…

Gotto Go Fie up the Salmon, haven’t ate all day… check U guys later….

By Tomahawkin

February 5, 2007 11:54 PM | Link to this

Oddjob, given the game’s economic climate today, and our penny-pitchin owners, I’d say, No Chance In Hell….we’re keepin Andruw, and I’ll Seriously be damned if I read on the bottom line that this team works out an extension…

By David O'Brien

February 5, 2007 11:56 PM | Link to this

Re-signing him during the season is possible. I don’t know that it’s at all likely, but it’s certainly possible, particularly if the sale of the team were to go through and new ownership were to raise payroll or promise to raise payroll in the future.

Not going to trade him in season unless they completely fall out of contention, and even then he’d have to approve of any deal.

By Greg in TN

February 6, 2007 12:08 AM | Link to this

There is something to be said about the way you played the game and the dignity that you displayed in that magical season of ‘74. You perservered and endured and played through taunts and threats that no man should have to face. You are one of my all-time heroes. For everything you did and continue to do Mr. Aaron, I thank you and hope you had the happiest of birthdays on Monday, February 5th. You’ll always be Hammerin’ Hank, and the Braves faithful will never forget you.

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 12:23 AM | Link to this

Greg, thanks for the reminder. I completely overlooked Hank’s birthday yesterday. Belated happy birthday, sir.

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 12:29 AM | Link to this

Mike, just scrolled up and saw your post. Hampton’s owed $14.5 mill this season and $15 mill in 2008, and Braves are responsible for all of it.

I dare say, barring a great season and no health concerns, there’d very little chance he’d be traded anywhere before the ‘08 season.

By dcarp23

February 6, 2007 12:48 AM | Link to this

Here appears to be Soriano’s winter numbers. Not the best, but who knows what they mean?

http://gigantesdelcibao.com/estadisticas/2006-07/regular/escogido.pdf

By Head Coach

February 6, 2007 05:06 AM | Link to this

Just thought I might weigh in on this six inning debate. I did some number crunching all the way back to 1996 and the numbers were consistently similar. You figure in 162x9=1458 innings a season that team will pitch. with the exception of last seasons average of five innings per start(these are rounded numbers) the Braves starters have consistently averaged six innings per start. Which means what ? It means Bobby Cox almost never lets his bullpen get more than 490 innings of work a season , last year they pitched 568. Curiously enough , the farther I went backwards to 1996 the more innings the rotation accounted for. However , in 1995 when the Braves won it all the starters pitched only 932 innings and the bullpen pitched 526 innings compared to the 568 they pitched in 2006. Which tells me a strong bullpen can make a solid rotation look great and a poor bullpen can ruin a season. A lights out bullpen in 2007 will make things much easier for the starters , obviously. A solid rotation in 2007 will put the Braves in the playoff race. A great rotation in 2007 and this team will be making some loud noise deep into the playoffs.

By doc

February 6, 2007 07:06 AM | Link to this

dob, i dont think all folks have taken the notion of a 6 inning pitcher out of context. no one can and has used a bullpen as aggressively as cox has during the years. usually not one but two or more relievers on the braves rank up there in most innings pitched ecah year, if not in innings then in appearances. that takes its toll and i hope these guys are going to be durable enough.

obviously, you are quite aware that for each appearance many pitches are thrown warming up sometimes to not get into a game and be “saved” for the next day. i am not as optimistic as you are until the new model has the wraps removed on it a bit more as there were several dents in the guys that are expected to take the ball in the last few innings. gonzales and sorianl ended the year on the injury list and soriano’s numbers as shown above dont suggest a dominant pitcher.

you yourself were somewhat concerned about soriano’s health as the deal was conceived and comented on it. unfortuately with hampton and these two guys we could have the perfect storm develop with hampton not able to go significant innings and these guys still having lingering issues much like boyer ended up having last year.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 6, 2007 07:26 AM | Link to this

I just love how some people are always negative no matter what. We could have a rotation of Smoltz, Halladay, Clemens, Santana, and Zambrano and there would be folks saying, “Well, they are good but Smoltz and Clemens are old and Zambrano is due for a bad year.” The Braves could have Hoffman, Wagner, and Rivera at the back end of the bullpen and people would be talking about how old they are. You know what? STOP IT!

Yes, Soriano was hurt at the end of the year but both the Mariners and Braves gave him a clean bill of health. People who saw him pitch in the winter leagues said that after a rocky start he was terrific in his subsequent appearances.

Yes, Gonzales missed the last six weeks of 2006. However, both the Braves and Pirates gave him a clean bill of health and he has been throwing since late December.

Yes, Hampton is coming off “Tommy John” surgery. However, unlike most pitchers, he has taken the FULL 18 recommended months of recovery and all the “normal setbacks” that goes with the surgery will have been experienced by the time the season starts. Everybody, whether Braves people or general baseball people, have all said they expect Hampton to be back to his old self and expect a good solid season from him.

The rest of the bullpen will be fine. It is absolutely asinine to think that Cox is going to cut his starters off at six innings no matter what and put the “big three” in every game. Don’t be “drama kings”! As DOB, myself, and others have stated redundantly the “six inning” thing is a baseball figure of speech. On some nights the starters can only go six innings and the bullpen can hold it down the rest of the way. Those other guys are quality as well. Look at McBride’s, Villareal’s, Yates’, and Paronto’s numbers from last season (in particular August and September). They were very solid. Most of those blown saves came early in the year and in June before the arrival of Wickman.

You are crazy if you don’t think the performance of the bullpen doesn’t directly affect the mental approach of the starters. Our starters will now be able to go on the mound and know they don’t have to be Cy Young. That will be the biggest benefit in the world.

By Bryan

February 6, 2007 08:09 AM | Link to this

Those winter numbers on Soriano are misleading - they only represent 7.1 innings pitched… remember Smoltz’s numbers from his first year as as closer?

By KC

February 6, 2007 08:31 AM | Link to this

DOB: “Hampton’s owed $14.5 mill this season and $15 mill in 2008, and Braves are responsible for all of it. I dare say, barring a great season and no health concerns, there’d very little chance he’d be traded anywhere before the ‘08 season.”

DOB, I don’t think it would take a “great” season in order for there to be suitors for Hampton… or at least he doesn’t have to be great for a full season. It’s to be expected that it may take him 2 or 3 months to get back into any sort of groove. So if he simply stays healthy and has a very good second half… there will be teams willing to take Hampton at 15 million.

That might not have been the case a couple years ago, but in this market where Ted $^%#% Lilly is supposedly worth 11 million…. I don’t think it will take season-long brilliance for Hampton to become a sought after commodity.

By Shaun

February 6, 2007 08:35 AM | Link to this

Robert(Justice Is The Best),

Yeah, just like your namesake, the other Robert: ‘The Braves have won a lot since ‘91 but they only have one World Series, so they need a new manager.’

By Head Coach

February 6, 2007 08:36 AM | Link to this

The full recovery time for Tommy John surgery is 18-24 months. Hampton is on track and healthy but still has to overcome the normal setbacks associated with tommy john surgery.

By KC

February 6, 2007 08:58 AM | Link to this

Robert(Justice Is The Best): “Those other guys are quality as well. Look at McBride’s, Villareal’s, Yates’, and Paronto’s numbers from last season (in particular August and September). They were very solid.”

Good call!

With all the fanfare over the Braves new bullpen additions, I think people have forgotten how good last year’s bullpen looked by the end of the season. Take a look what the (likely) returning members of last year’s pen did to close the season:

Yates: 2.70 ERA in September as Braves setup man.

Villarreal: 1.42 ERA in September.

McBride: 1.91 ERA from July 16th on.

Paronto: 3.27 ERA in September (pretty much in line with what he did all season)

And of course Bob Wickman was nearly perfect from the time he put on a Braves uni.

Worth noting:

• Tyler Yates was called up on May 30th and spent 4 full months in Atlanta. During that time, he had one really bad month (August). Over the other 3 months, he posted a 2.17 ERA.

• Oscar Villarreal posted a 2.56 ERA over 80 appearances with the D-back in his 2003 rookie season before requiring Tommy John surgery in 2004. Last year was his first full season back from the surgery… so the fact that he finished the year strong is very significant. It could be that he just had a great month (of September). But it’s more likely that he started rounding back into form by season’s end. Look for good numbers from Villarreal this year.

There may not even be room in this bullpen for a guy like Blaine Boyer!!! Boyer posted a very good 3.11 ERA in 2005… pitching well under the pressure of a pennant race in his rookie season. This guy is regarded as a possible future closer and is almost certainly someone who could help the Braves now… and they might not even be able to fit him in!

On top of that, you have a great looking young reliever in Phil Stockman and another good young talent in Joey Divine, to go along with Tanyon Sturtze. YIKES! And these are the guys they don’t have room for!

It’s not just the big 3 people. This bullpen is FULLY stocked… actually, it’s overstocked.

By KC

February 6, 2007 09:06 AM | Link to this

Head Coach: I realize that article you found says “18-24 months”, but everything I’ve heard/read from doctors who perform this surgery indicates that 18 months is the full recovery period.

Dr. James Andrews is probably the most prolific doctor who performs that procedure, and I have seen a direct quote from him stating that 18 months is the full recovery time needed from Tommy John surgery.

Now… I’m talking from a health perspective here. It’s going to take nearly any pitcher returning from TJ surgery a little time to get the feel back for their pitches after they’ve been out for a while. If you want to tack that on… fine. That’s why I’ve said all along not to expect too much out of him in the first half. But that has nothing to do with the physical recovery period.

If may take Hampton much or all of the first half to get back in a groove. But if he rounds into form before or early in the second half, that should give the Braves an edge in any pennant race. And it would certainly put them in a good position heading into October.

By KC

February 6, 2007 09:16 AM | Link to this

Head Coach: “Hampton is on track and healthy but still has to overcome the normal setbacks associated with tommy john surgery.”

Hampton already is overcoming those setbacks. He a scar tissue problem while throwing over the winter… but that’s good! That’s normal. And it’s usually something that recovering TJ patients experience during the season. Hampton has had the benefit of getting a lot of this out of the way over the off-season.

Again, I don’t have my head in the clouds here… I expect a re-acclimation period for Hampton. I’ve gone on record, predicting a first-half ERA of somewhere between 4.00-5.00 from Hampton. But I also believe that it’s going to click for him at some point during the season. And when it does, the Braves will likely have another legitimate ace in the rotation for the stretch run and a post-season run.

By Oldtimer

February 6, 2007 09:55 AM | Link to this

Hey Guys and Gals; I love all of your constructive comments and insight. With all the “Studs” on the pitching staff, an outfield where “No ball falls”, a solid infield, and some “Good Sticks”, I’m ready to see the Tomahawks on the “Ole ball field”.

By Daybed Wagmoe

February 6, 2007 09:56 AM | Link to this

this “overstocking” of the bullpen is a great problem to have for the braves. it’s great to have a deep system in case any of the 7 gets injured (knock on wood), and i’m sure that the braves will be able to work out a trade or two using their extra relievers. maybe they’d be able to get a LF, or someone capable of replacing andruw if/when he leaves (knock on wood).

By yars

February 6, 2007 10:07 AM | Link to this

Was anyone able to answer the question as to why Trey Hodges was at Turner Field recently working out? I thought he was playing in Japan? Is he back with Atlanta? It would be wise for the braves to invite a couple of starting pitchers to sprign training just in case Hampton isn’t ready, or if Kyle Davies has a awful spring. With the way Bobby Cox is talking, it looks like he has more faith in Matt Diaz than Langerhans. Him saying that Diaz is capable of playing 1B, I interpret that as it looks like Diaz may stick around another season with Atlanta. There is no need to carry both Diaz & Langy since we now have Craig Wilson. As for the 2B job, the front office have a lot of confidence in Kelly Johnson because they know his capabilities. They drafted him, watched him develop in the minor leagues, and know he is capable of hitting major league pitching. He played in the bigs with the Braves back in ‘05. I think they have more faith in him than they do in Martin Prado or Willy Aybar. I hope K. Johnson has a good spring.

By latino braves fan

February 6, 2007 10:18 AM | Link to this

I think that the bullpen will be fine we have three great potential closers. I would like to see Gregor Blanco get some action in the outfield he looks good when he was playing for the venezuelan team in the caribbean series. Will Gregor Blanco get an opportunity? I also like Langerhans in LF & Diaz, but I don’t like C.Wilson maybe i’ll change my mind once the season starts.

By latino braves fan

February 6, 2007 10:18 AM | Link to this

I think that the bullpen will be fine we have three great potential closers. I would like to see Gregor Blanco get some action in the outfield he looks good when he was playing for the venezuelan team in the caribbean series. Will Gregor Blanco get an opportunity? I also like Langerhans in LF & Diaz, but I don’t like C.Wilson maybe i’ll change my mind once the season starts.

By Latino Braves Fan

February 6, 2007 10:19 AM | Link to this

I think that the bullpen will be fine we have three great potential closers. I would like to see Gregor Blanco get some action in the outfield he looks good when he was playing for the venezuelan team in the caribbean series. Will Gregor Blanco get an opportunity? I also like Langerhans in LF & Diaz, but I don’t like C.Wilson maybe i’ll change my mind once the season starts.

By kdbanks

February 6, 2007 10:28 AM | Link to this

DOB-

Just saw on SI.com a story about Braves that had this note on Chucky:

“James said he kept his normal offseason job installing windows for a major home improvement store.”

a) Is that true? b) If true, why would the Braves allow a pitcher to take a job like that that could lead to serious hand/finger injuries? c) Do you think he can get me a deal at Home Depot?

KDB

By link

February 6, 2007 10:36 AM | Link to this

this is what kdbanks was refering to:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/baseball/mlb/02/04/braves.gonzalez.ap/index.html

By Dave

February 6, 2007 10:48 AM | Link to this

DOB…I wanted to briefly revisit a discussion from a previous blog a few days ago. It was regarding best guitarist. I was able to finally watch the Super Bowl last night on Tivo and was quite impressed with Prince’s halftime performance. I am not a huge Prince fan, but I never realized how good of a guitarist he is. Also, I was surprised the other day that no one mentioned Kenny Wayne Shephard as far as greatest guitarist. He is a prodigy and we’ll only get better. Thoughts?

By MBATL

February 6, 2007 10:53 AM | Link to this

The New York Times has an article today about the pending sale of the team.

By Luke

February 6, 2007 11:18 AM | Link to this

I believe the Braves made enough move over the past 7 months to improve the team 15-20 wins, w/ the addition of Wickman, Soriano, and Gonzo that sure’s up at least 80% of the blown saves from a year ago. Laroche will be missed, but not as much as people are making it out. Who is the favorite going into the season???

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 6, 2007 11:37 AM | Link to this

Hey Atlanta residents,

I don’t know why I thought of this and it is TOTALLY OFF the subject, but here goes:

When I was a 12, I went to Atlanta, and the only thing I remember about the city were the manhole covers that were made in Smackover, Arkansas (population-a little over 2,000.) This is the little “one red light” town where I was born and raised, and still live, so it was a big deal to me to see the name so far away from home. Does anybody know if the mahole covers in the city still have the Smackover, AR stamp on them? Just curious. Carry on with the baseball talk…..

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 11:39 AM | Link to this

Luke, I don’t anticipate the Braves improving by 15-20 wins (that’d be 94-99 wins, which is really pushing it) but I wouldn’t be surprised by 85 to 90 wins this season.

They’re not going to eliminate 80 percent of the league-high 29 blown saves. But they could eliminate one-third or perhaps even one-half of them, get it down to 14 to 18 blown saves this season. That’s be huge improvement and should ensure playoff contention, provided the dropoff in offense isn’t dramatic….

Dave, totally agree on Prince, though I didn’t want to start a bunch of protests here by saying what a great guitarist he is (certain guys just can never seem to get past his appearance, or the fact that a lot of ladies seem to dig this fey guy, etc, so you get the old “yeah, he makes a lot of noise with his guitar but can’t play worth a dime” lame critique).

He’s been one of my favorite artists since I saw him perform live on the “1999” tour in 1983, then the Purple Rain tour a year or two later. Granted, most of his work in the past 10-15 years has been far below his first decade output, but you can still put on any of his early albums and be blown away by the originality and pure funk of it all.

He’s also definitely one of the most dynamic live performers I’ve ever seen.

By The Grinch

February 6, 2007 11:40 AM | Link to this

Morning, all. Dave, Prince has always been a phenomenal guitarist; he just never has cut loose much on alblum for whatever reason. I’ve been playing forever and I was shocked the first time I saw some live footage of him really cutting loose; I had no idea. What he did at the superbowl was actually pretty subdued by comparison (though doing it in pouring rain gets extra difficulty points). Kenny Wayne Shepard is excellent too, but I think the blatant rip off of SRV’s style early in his career cost him some originality points.

Is Kyle Davies out of minor league options so we have no choice, or are we really looking at him to be the fifth starter this year because he’s the best option? If that’s the case, I must admit to being a bit concerned. Anyone who watched him pitch last season and thought he was even close to as effective a spot starter as Villareal or Cormier instead of the total disaster I watched was smoking crack. I know the guy has talent, but he’s young and apparently has oatmeal between his ears. I hope for the sake of our season he spends another year in AAA and doesn’t get a call-up unless we’re 15 games up or down towards the end of the year. It would be folly otherwise. I still contend we should’ve traded him in a package to get someone we need while his value still exists; maybe JS is hoping he has a good Spring so he can still do that before the season starts.

By TennesseePaul

February 6, 2007 11:42 AM | Link to this

Head Coach: I noticed something in your post of innings pitched. 1995 was a shortened season due to the strike. It doesn’t change too much. But it does highlight how much of the pen was used. Maybe that was the result of a late start to the season. Not sure though. Otherwise, solid post.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 6, 2007 11:46 AM | Link to this

I would like to thank Prince for his greatest contribution to this world: Carmen Electra

By Ernest Densey

February 6, 2007 11:47 AM | Link to this

What prospects do we have in our farm system at the outfield positions? Do we have anyone close? Power, Speed? or was Frenchy all we had to offer from our farmsystem?

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 11:48 AM | Link to this

kdbanks, Chuck did it on a very limited basis this offseaeson. hey, he’s still a kid who likes to stay occupied in offseason, and he’s not the type to sit around reading or going to movies.

is installing a few windows and doors for a Lowe’s subcontractor (it was Lowe’s, not Home Depot) any more dangerous than working on your ranch (couple of Braves have ranches), riding a motorcycle (as at least one prominent Braves player does), riding a snowmobile, skiing, or doing any number of odd jobs around the house? I don’t think so. And that’s a lot of Braves doing one or more of those things.

By the way, that same article had Rheal Cormier competing for the fifth starter job. Unless the Braves suddenly signed the 40-year-old former Phillies lefty reliever and plan to have him start, it’ll be Braves returner Lance Cormier (no relation) competing for that rotation spot.

By Lew

February 6, 2007 11:51 AM | Link to this

DOB-Actually, a 90 win season is perfectly reasonable. If you take June, when we went 6-21 (almost certainly a horrendous aberration) and turn it around to a moderately good 17-10, the Braves would have won 90 games. The Braves also had a 10-14 record in April. Turn that around to 14-10, again not a stretch, and all of a sudden they win 94 games. I just fail to see the doom and gloom. The Braves were much better than their record indicated last year and the team is much stronger this time around.

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 11:55 AM | Link to this

Grinch, Davies is not out of options, and could indeed be at Richmond if he doesn’t have a good spring and one of the others does.

I really think they’re trying to help Davies’ development, give him a positive mental outlook, pump his confidence heading into spring training by implying or saying he’s the leading candidate for the fifth starter’s job.

Because he was such a top prospect, and they had/have such high hopes for him, they want to be careful, say the right things. You don’t have to have that same kid-gloves approach with an older guy who’s been traded and been through a bunch of camps, etc. They don’t have to dangle a carrott for Lance Cormier, for instance, to try to get the best out of him this spring.

What good would it do, for instance, to come out and say, “Kyle Davies will get a shot, but he’s just one of a few guys competing for the job and he’s going to have to prove he’s worthy. It’s not going to be handed to him.” After the injury woes and the struggles he’s had for most of two seasons, Davies needs to have a clear head and no worries entering spring, I’d imagine is the thinking.

Bobby really does prefer Villarreal in the bullpen, though. I’m with you _ I like Villarreal starting more than Cormier. However, they love Villarreal’s rubber arm and the fact that he can go 2-4 innings ANY night if a starter struggles a bit and leaves after 2-3 innings, that kind of thing. Also can make a spot start at any time.

By Kentavo

February 6, 2007 11:57 AM | Link to this

No question Prince can rip it up. Did you see him at the R’n’R Hall of Fame induction a couple of years ago? Blew everybody away. His recorded output is spotty, but he’s a hell of an axeman, and could have gone more of the Hendrix route if he’d wanted. But then again Hendrix choked on his own vomit.

As for the Braves: I don’t think anybody will pick them this year. Some outlets sort of had to pick ‘em since they were 14 defending champs - but now, they will be totally overlooked. Which is a bad thing for us fans thirsting for every bit of info when the national media ignores our boys (Sorry D.O.B. you do a great job, but some of us can’t get enough!). But it’ll be good for the whole “underdog” mindset.

By The Grinch

February 6, 2007 11:59 AM | Link to this

Hillbilly, I was just just down on 14th street the other day inspecting the manhole covers(it’s what I do for fun on Friday afternoons) and noticed one of them was from Smackover. I thought to myself, “Self, isn’t that where Arkansas Hillbilly is from?” :-) Just messin’ with you, dude; you know I love ya.

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 11:59 AM | Link to this

As promised, the final Soriano stats with Escogido in the D.R. winter league (and you might want to cover your eyes):

0-2 with an 8.59 ERA in 8 games (7.1 innings) with 14 hits, nine runs (seven earned), one homer, two walks, two strikeouts.

When I wrote the note earlier this winter, quoting the scout from another team who saw him in one of his first two outings down there, it sounded like all or most of those runs and hits allowed came in his first two appearances, his first games in a couple of months of inactivity following the end-of-August concussion.

I can’t say exactly how many runs and hits came in those appearances, however. I think most did, but not certain. The Braves, as I’ve said, insist he pitched very well in his latter appearances down there and Soriano himself has said he feels great now. We’ll soon find out, won’t we?

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 12:05 PM | Link to this

New albums by Radiohead, Metallica and REM all coming out in 2007, I was just reading somewhere. The Radiohead album is supposed to be their most guitar-intensive, straightforward rock CD since “The Bends.” And that’s fine by me. I really loved OK Computer and The Bends more than any of their other fine work.

Rick Rubin is producing the Metallica album. Interesting, for sure….

Grinch, Prince absolutely wails on the guitar in concert _ I mean, extended solos where you’re mesmerized.

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 12:15 PM | Link to this

Since it was asked _ “Was anyone able to answer the question as to why Trey Hodges was at Turner Field recently working out? I thought he was playing in Japan? Is he back with Atlanta?” _ just one more time on this:

Hodges struggled overseas, came back, signed a minor league contract with the Braves with NO invite to spring training. He’s been at the pitching camp trying to get better, working with Roger McDowell, etc. But again, he’s not been invited to big league spring training and isn’t on the major league roster.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 6, 2007 12:18 PM | Link to this

Grinch, I was actually expecting and counting on a witty, smart-a$$ remark from you on the subject, so it looks like you came through for me. But I bet you’ll take a second look at the next manhole cover you see. Kinda like when somebody tells you not to look at the thong hanging out of the fat girl’s pants……you’ll look anyway. :-O

By The Grinch

February 6, 2007 12:21 PM | Link to this

Thanks for the perspective on Davies, DOB; makes sense. I have nothing against the kid; I was just rather uninspired by what I’ve seen so far. Yeah, I wish I’d seen Prince live the couple of opportunities I had. Long, mesmerizing guitar solos are definitely my thing. BTW, if Rick Rubin is producing Metallica’s next alblum, expect it to be different. Rubin usually doesn’t take on a band unless they’re willing to listen to him, and he loves to make a splash. They’ll either be a lot harder, or they’ll throw in some musical twists that nobody will expect. He’s the one who got Kerry King from Slayer to play all the guitar on Beastie Boys “Licence to Ill.” Betcha didn’t know that one, did you?

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 6, 2007 12:24 PM | Link to this

AAHHHHHHHHH won’t you let it all hang out,

fat-bottom girls. you make the rockin’ world go ‘round :-)))

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 12:26 PM | Link to this

KC, regarding Hampton and his $15 mill salary in 2008, and my statement that it’d probably take a great season and good health for him to be viable for trade, you wrote: “I don’t think it will take season-long brilliance for Hampton to become a sought after commodity.”

Well, think about this: If he has a good enough season for teams to warrant trading for his $15 mill salary in 2008, then aren’t the Braves also going to ask for something in return for him? I mean, isn’t it potentially a catch-22 or something resembling one: If he goes 14-4 with a 3.20 ERA and a few rich teams come calling, you know the Braves, and you know they’re not going to eat part of his salary in that case and probably aren’t going to give him away for nothing or just to dump his salary.

So what team is going to not only take on the $15 mill salary, but also give up the young talent Atlanta would probably want, in exchange for an injury-plagued, 34-year-old pitcher coming off what would be his first really good, healthy full season in five or six years _ and oh, one who will be a free agent at the end of the 2008 season?

Just my opinion, but seems very unlikely all the things would come together to make that happen.

By rammerjammer

February 6, 2007 12:27 PM | Link to this

Villareal is Chone Figgins as a pitcher…fits in well with whatever role is needed. I can see why BC likes his flexibility and doesn’t want to pigeon-hole him.

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 12:30 PM | Link to this

dcarp, just got all the way up to your post from late last night and saw you’d already linked to Soriano’s numbers, right after I’d logged off last night.

I didn’t get those stats until this morning, and didn’t realize you’d found them. Oh well, thanks for the effort from you.

By TennesseePaul

February 6, 2007 12:38 PM | Link to this

The Radiohead album is supposed to be their most guitar-intensive, straightforward rock CD since “The Bends.” And that’s fine by me.

My favorite album by this band is Amnesiac. Having said that though, I’m excited to hear them get back to the guitars. I picked up Thom York’s Eraser and was completely dissapointed. I’m a dog, I’m a dog, I’m a dog, I wanna be your lap dog What the hell was going on in that album? He just went completely off the deep end. It’ll be very nice to hear them come back to the guitars. Of course, their shows during all these tours contained guitars playing most of the songs. They all rocked and were some of the most intense shows I’ve been to.

By Shaun

February 6, 2007 12:38 PM | Link to this

Luke and O’Brien,

I think the best way to look at it is the Braves aren’t going to allow the tenth most runs in the league next season; they could jump to fifth or sixth. They probably aren’t going to finish second in runs scored but should still finish in the top six in that category.

A typical team with the 2006 Braves’ runs scored and allowed totals would have went 85-77 (they didn’t because of their record in close games which was because of luck or the bullpen or some other factor). They should be able to improve by at least 3-5 wins, that’s 88-90 wins.

The Mets pitching will likely decline so I look for it to be a tight race between the Braves, Phillies and Mets. (The Marlins have some young talent but a lot of their guys played over their heads last season so I don’t think we should expect them to seriously contend.) I think the Mets may be slight early favorites but I think they have much less room for error than they did last season.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 6, 2007 12:41 PM | Link to this

I like Villareal in the pen, with Cormier, Davies, and Schiell duking it out for the 5th spot. Soriano’s numbers were kinda Reitsmaesque, weren’t they. Glad to know they were skewed by a couple of bad games, because I almost threw up in my mouth a little bit when I first read them. Oh by the way, I was just kidding about the Schiell thing. Just checking to see if anybody was paying attention. Will he be filling James position as window installer when the season starts back?

By Shaun

February 6, 2007 12:45 PM | Link to this

Prince may be the best true “pop” musician and entertainer ever—he transcends all genres and labels, really. And he gets so much respect from his peers, which probably doesn’t matter much to Robert (Bobby Cox is the best).

By The Grinch

February 6, 2007 12:48 PM | Link to this

Thanks for that image right before lunch, Hillbilly; some enourmous chick riding a tiny ten-speed down the beach with some poor thong(and most of the seat) engulfed in cellulite…blah! Off to the gym.

By TennesseePaul

February 6, 2007 12:48 PM | Link to this

DOB: I guess one way a Hampton trade could happen is if he has a fabulous first half and is traded at the deadline. But that would require a young guy stepping up big time and becoming just down right dominating. Or the Braves completely falling out of it. And, doesn’t Hampton have a no trade clause or was that scratched in the trade? At any rate, it seems highly improbable. I think it’s safe to assume that Hampton will not be resigned after 2008… At least not for the same amount of money. Losing his salary will allow for resigning Andruw. If the deal is structured in such a way. But then Francoeur, McCann, Davies, James, Boyer, McBride and so one will be angling for big pay increases. It might be in the best interest to lock these players up to somewhat long term deals to avoid massive arbitration figures. Soriano last year and Zambrano this year are raising the bar for what 5th year guys can get these days.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 6, 2007 12:50 PM | Link to this

Shaun,

I hope you’re right about the Marlins. Particularly because I liked Joe Girardi, and what he did with those kids, despite the off the field antics, and I hope it is shown that getting rid of him was a mistake. That’s my opinion anywaw.

By MBATL

February 6, 2007 12:52 PM | Link to this

If Hampton goes anywhere near 14-4 with a 3.20, I don’t see why we’d even entertain trade talks unless we got a terrific deal - taking on all his salary and giving us quality in return. His salary is journaled at $9 mil or so (I think that’s what DOB posted on the last blog). If he’s good, no reason to trade him. $9 mil for a starter with that kind of era is a relative bargain. The problem is if he’s not…

By Shaun

February 6, 2007 12:56 PM | Link to this

O’Brien,

I agree with your assessment of the Hampton situation. KC, maybe the Yankees would take a chance if Hampton has a remarkable season, but I doubt it. I would think they learned from past mistakes—Jaret Wright, Kevin Brown, Carl Pavano, Al Leiter…(you get the picture).

The Braves are stuck with Hampton probably until he retires; which may not be that bad if he can come back to be close to an average pitcher.

By TennesseePaul

February 6, 2007 12:57 PM | Link to this

I like Villareal in the pen, with Cormier, Davies, and Schiell duking it out for the 5th spot

In games Shiell started last year The Braves were 0-3. The team scored, on average 3.33 runs. The team allowed, on average, 7.33 runs. If Shiell never pitches at the major league level for the Braves again, it will be a good thing. It’d be an even better thing if he has an outstanding Spring and is traded.

By ernesto

February 6, 2007 12:59 PM | Link to this

There is no way a Hampton trade could happen - think about it - for any team to want a 15 mil pitcher (18 mil the following year) he’s going to have to look like an ace, and if he looks like an ace, he’s almost a bargain in a market where 3rd and 4th starter quality guys are getting 10 mil plus. I know “never say never” but it seems a little improbable to me.

By Shaun

February 6, 2007 01:05 PM | Link to this

Arkansas Hillbilly,

I doubt the Marlins will get the same performances from their young pitchers. And Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez aren’t likely to play as well. Uggla’s not quite as good as he showed and Ramirez is probably four or five years from another season like 2006.

Miguel Cabrera had a monster year in ‘06, but does anyone really believe he’s almost 24? I say he’s at least 26.

By TennesseePaul

February 6, 2007 01:29 PM | Link to this

Miguel Cabrera had a monster year in ‘06, but does anyone really believe he’s almost 24? I say he’s at least 26.

What ever the case I think he is one of those rare players that is exceptionally good. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him continue performing at the top level for quite a while. Other notes on the Marlins, they still have Willis and I’d imagine he will be very good this year. He started out last year with, what appeared to be, a disgruntled attitude; expecting to lose bad for the whole year only to wake up and realize he was on a good team. It is also just as likely that the team suffers a team-wide sophomore slump. But, I think this team is going to be good. If they match last seasons efforts, it will make for a tough division. The Nats are the only team in this division that can be completely written off. And each team plays them about 17 or 18 times. That’s just padding in the W column for a team. It’s also a losing streak breaker. Any team in a rutt is going to run into these guys and stop the skid. I have no faith in the Nats and would not be the least bit surprised if they managed to steal the Mets record for the all-time worst single season.

By kdbanks

February 6, 2007 01:31 PM | Link to this

DOB -

I’m actually less concerned about Chuck working on windows, or some of the other guys working on ranches, than I am about Brian McCann’s new hobby - juggling chainsaws. Between that and Renteria’s sword swallowing exhibition that’s been travelling through smalltown America, I really don’t understand what the Braves are thinking. Can’t we put a contract clause in their somewhere?

That just seems like smart business to me.

By geauxbraves2000

February 6, 2007 01:32 PM | Link to this

Davies, Cormier, et al, could all be decent ML pitchers if they would just stay away from the walks. You can’t walk 7 big leaguers in a game and expect to win. If a player hits .300, then 7 out of 10 times the pitcher wins the battle. Throw strikes and let the defense help you. Especially that man patrolling CF.

Geaux Braves!!

By joey

February 6, 2007 01:44 PM | Link to this

DOB. I totally agree with you that we won’t have to expect our starters to go 8 every start now. they will, but not 35 times a season. we will not see a trio the likes of maddux, glavine, and smoltz that could keep the bulpen bored to tears durring a season. i for one believe that hampton will be quite impressive, given his pitching style and philosophy. he is an “off the plate” pitcher that will occasionally bust you inside with a heater. also, remember that he has smoltzie to talk to about his rehab and calm him down if he gets anxious. smoltz has been there - done that. hudson is due. he is way too good for back to back crummy seasons. the starters will be more confident, able to pitch harder not worrying about trying to pitch a complete game. obviously these guys are professionals and competitive to a fault, so they will try to go a little harder for a little longer i am sure. i for one believe in my heart that kelly johnson will do fine as the season progresses. he might have 2 or 3 errors in april, but as the season progresses, his range gets better, and he gets more confident with his new roles as second baseman ahd leadoff hitter, he will do well. he won’t be joe morgan (who is???), but he will be comperable to giles, i am sure of it. i have not seen thorman play enough to guess what he has to offer. if cox says he is good, who are we to argue. the only great first baseman we have had was “the crime dog” fred mcgriff. bream was good, hunter was ok, klesko was ok, laroche is good on his way to great. thorman is tall, seemingly can dig out a bad throw and gives the left side of the infield a big target. that is what you want. he doesn’t have to hit .350 with 40 homers and 125 rbi. (only justice and a. jones have put up the power numbers in a cox led braves team.) we have a lineup with i believe will be the best catcher in baseball by the end of the year, a right fielder that keeps getting better, a center fielder and a third baseman that are steady eddie when it comes to playing. a shortstop that plays exceptional, better than he is given credit for. you want protection, there it is. diaz in left, fine with me. langerhans in left, ok. remember, we still have aybar who can play multiple positions, we just signed an ex pirate that even though he is a strikeout machine, he gives decent play and a taste to win. last year was the year of the reitsma. i mean the year of the blown save. i mean the year of “i wish these games were only 8 innings long”. not a problem anymore. the philies want to say that the mets are their only compitition, i totall agree. they will be fighting for second place once more. willie randolph should have said “I fear all we have done is awoken a sleeping giant and filled him with terrible resolve” would be more than fitting. i for one would like to order another streak of 14 straight, supersized with a title or two.

By Shaun

February 6, 2007 01:46 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

Looks like Cabrera will challenge Pujols for NL’s best for at least four or five more seasons, but I do have questions about their ages.

Hanley Ramirez is good but I think it’s unrealistic to expect another big year at age 23. And the rest of the team is still very young.

Young pitching is always a concern given the likelihood of injuries. The good news for Marlins fans is none of them threw a ridiculous amount of innings.

By Hotspur

February 6, 2007 01:52 PM | Link to this

A little gift for DOB and all who worship Prince as a guitarist: his post-Super Bowl “press conference” in which he plays “Johnny B. Goode” and more.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4a1AegGKjY0

By MBATL

February 6, 2007 02:02 PM | Link to this

Florida already has two sore-armed starters, Johnson and Sanchez, who “should” be ready for opening day, but not for spring training. They don’t have a CF, and they don’t have a bullpen. Even if their young guys duplicate last year, they’ll have a hard time winning more than 81 games, imo.

And, Cabrera is a very fine hitter (I’d love to have him), but doesn’t approach Pujols.

Why did the Nats withdraw from the Trachsel “sweepstakes”? They have exactly one decent starter. And MLBTradeRumors throws the Braves in as a possible suitor for Trachsel, but I don’t think it’s a ‘rumor’, just a casual comment.

By hk

February 6, 2007 02:09 PM | Link to this

.. couple of weeks ago did a spreadsheet for some of the Braves changes, translated into possible impact on Braves wins in ‘07 … sort of messy, will try again, this time in more of a narrative …

… I like Lew’s probable 90 wins as a starting point … let’s see, that’s 11 more wins than last year, where might those come from ???

Wicky only, full season- plus 7, but

Wicky + Soriano- plus 9, but

Wicky + Soriano + Gonzalez- plus 12

First base offense- minus 2

First base defense- minus 2

Second base offense- minus 1

Second base defense- minus 1

Smoltz fatigue factor down- plus 2

Huddy’s ‘head’ problem better- plus 1

Hampton back (hmmmm)- plus 1

Francoeur maturing a little plus 1

… the above are ‘most likely’ numbers, but some of them could vary quite a bit, for instance …

Chipper injury issues- minus 5

Smoltz’s age could finally catch up with him- minus 4

Huddy should do better without the expectations of being the Braves #1 pitcher like last year, but there’s a fair amount of uncertainty, could be 4 more wins than above, or maybe 2 less ..

Hampton uncertainty amounts a variation of plus or minus 4 wins from the above …

Francoeur, could vary from minus 1 to plus 3 from above

Right field impact, offense and defense- plus or minus 2

McCann gets a little tired late in year, sophomore slump- minus 2

‘Wicky only’ could have varied by minus 4 to plus 2 from above, but

‘Wicky+Soriano’- minus 2 to plus 3, and

‘Wicky+Soriano+Gonzalez- minus one to plus 5

… all of which seems to add up to 90 wins most likely, with as few as 84 owing mainly to injury, age and fatigue concerns, but as many as 95 with the young guys coming through …

By TennesseePaul

February 6, 2007 02:10 PM | Link to this

Braves in as a possible suitor for Trachsel

No thank you. Even the Mets perfered Jorge Sosa to Trachsel. Trachsel can go to whatever team he wants so long as it’s not the Braves.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 6, 2007 02:14 PM | Link to this

10Paul: Hook, line, and sinker. I knew I’d get some stats out of you or Shaun. Did you read the entire post or shall I give you an “F”?… ;-)

By Shaun

February 6, 2007 02:16 PM | Link to this

MBATL,

Cabrera’s numbers are matching up with guys like Aaron, Cepeda and Frank Robinson through age 23(?). It’s still way too early to put him in that class, but he will likely be the second best hitter in the NL for at least the next few seasons. And Pujols supposedly is younger, which helps Cabrera’s case. You’re right that Cabrera isn’t Pujols, but he has a decent shot to be as close to as valuable. And both look like pretty good HOF bets, barring a disaster.

By MBATL

February 6, 2007 02:37 PM | Link to this

Shaun, I agree 100% My point was that Pujols is sublime, while Cabrera is only great. Pujols has more power, more walks, way fewer K’s, more SB). And Pujols was posting those kind of numbers from his rookie year on. Cabrera compares, I think, to A-Rod, but Albert is better; if he maintains his pace for another decade, will be the greatest hitter ever.

Anyway, no argument, and no complaint about either, obviously.

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 02:49 PM | Link to this

TennPaul, if you saw Miguel Cabrera up close, you might not question his age. He’s got more of a baby face than anyone on the Braves and maybe in all the majors. He doesn’t look a day over 22 in the face….

Hotspur, great stuff on the Prince link. Thanks.

I’m watching that and thinking, of the hundreds and hundreds of almost universally boring press conferences I’ve been to through the years, including those before a couple of South Florida Super Bowls I covered, I never, ever went to a press conference like that.

“So I went to this press conference and a Prince concert broke out…”

By TennesseePaul

February 6, 2007 03:04 PM | Link to this

TennPaul, if you saw Miguel Cabrera up close, you might not question his age

I don’t question his age. I can still picture his little ears sticking out making him look like a 12 year old. Payne is the one questioning his age. Probably because he hits so well and no one can possibly do that until they are 26-28 years old.

By TennesseePaul

February 6, 2007 03:07 PM | Link to this

Arkansas Hillbilly: I did read the entire post, but the mere thought of Shiell is a nightmare to me. However, I wouldn’t be the least bit disappointed to see him pop up in the Mets rotation this year.

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 03:10 PM | Link to this

Oh, sorry about the confusion TennPaul. I was going back and forth from previous posts.

Damn you, Payne! You cynical fool! (just kidding)

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 6, 2007 03:12 PM | Link to this

No thank you. Even the Mets perfered Jorge Sosa to Trachsel. Trachsel can go to whatever team he wants so long as it’s not the Braves.

Amen to that 10 Paul. Preferably a team in the NL East.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 6, 2007 03:15 PM | Link to this

the mere thought of Shiell is a nightmare to me. However, I wouldn’t be the least bit disappointed to see him pop up in the Mets rotation this year

Hey, I think we’re on to something here. Shiell, Sosa, and Trachsel all in the NL East but not in Atlanta. Regrade….you get an “A”

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 6, 2007 03:20 PM | Link to this

Anybody wanna place bets on whether Grinch was checkin’ the elephant seals for thong exposure at the gym today….

By Shaun

February 6, 2007 03:34 PM | Link to this

O’Brien and TennPaul,

I question Cabrera’s age a little. But who knows? Just doesn’t seem possible that a guy that young could be that big. Maybe it’s just bias because most baseball players you see that are that young and that big are just solid with not much body fat. Cabrera looks like he has some body fat on him. But I’m no expert and obviously bodies are unique to individuals.

Actually I question Pujols’s age, too. And I’ve heard many baseball insiders have, too.

By anonymous

February 6, 2007 03:40 PM | Link to this

We have the pitching, now what about the offense?

By TennesseePaul

February 6, 2007 03:56 PM | Link to this

Regrade….you get an “A”
I knew if I put in a little extra work I could pull that GPA up =)

By Shaun

February 6, 2007 04:12 PM | Link to this

anonymous,

The offense scored the second-most runs in the NL playing half their games in a pitcher’s park.

Let’s go position-by-position and compare 2007 likely starters to 2006 regulars:

C McCann may not be quite as good. He was just so good last season, it may be tough for him to repeat. But he shouldn’t decline significantly and still should be one of if not the best offensive catcher in the NL.

1B Thorman (/Wilson?) This will likely be a downgrade, but Thorman and possibly Wilson should be adequate.

2B Johnson may be just as good as Giles was last season. He has great on-base abilities. We’ll call it about the same as 2006.

SS Renteria bounced back after a bad ‘05. Like McCann, he was so good it’s hard to see him being that good again. But he should still be solid.

3B Chipper is going to put up great numbers as he always does. It’s just going to depend on health, as always, as to how much production they’ll get from 3B. Still, should be fine there. Likely an upgrade considering Chipper only played in 110 games.

LF Langerhans/Diaz/Wilson/??? should be about the same or better than last season maybe a little better.

CF AJones may decline a little but not too much. He’ll put up his normal big numbers.

RF Francouer costs the Braves a lot of outs last season—169 innings worth of outs. If he can continue to improve his discipline, could be a big upgrade. My guess is he’ll make some positive strides and this will be a fairly significant upgrade for the Braves.

Looks like no major declines and possibly a couple of upgrades. They probably aren’t going to finish in the top two in runs, but they should be fine. I see no reason why we shouldn’t expect a top 5 or 6 finish in the runs scored dept.

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 04:15 PM | Link to this

Just going through my notebook here, about to write a Thorman story for Thursday paper, and came across this quote from Bobby Cox. I asked him about LF, trying to get some idea whether Braves even considered adding another guy before spring, etc.

“We’re fine,” he said. “I like our team as it stands. Thorman and Wilson at first, and Diaz can play some first. And Langerhans, Wilson, and Diaz in left … we’ll see how it plays out.”

Before any decisions are made on who gets the final jobs, and 2B and LF, Cox said, “I want to see some games.”

Forgot to mention this earlier, but I asked Bobby if Pena would be assigned to one of the five pitchers and he said probably and “that’s how we usually do it.”

He also noted that both Wilson and Diaz can catch, so there’s your answer as to emergency catchers.

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 04:20 PM | Link to this

And here’s a comment I found from McDowell, when asked about Boyer’s mound session the first day of pitching camp. “Terrific. He’s got no limitations.”

He also mentioned Lerew having a shot, talked about how much better Devine looked when he got back with Braves at end of season, and said, “There will be competition” for the last bullpen openings.

By Head Coach

February 6, 2007 04:33 PM | Link to this

Pujols is an alien , what else could explain a 27 year old with 250 homeruns , a ROY Award , MVP award , three silver slugger awards , a gold glove , five all-star games , Player of the year award , a Hank Aaron award , NLCS MVP award , a .332 batting average and a 1048 OPS after just six seasons. Alien , totally alien………lol

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 04:37 PM | Link to this

You guys want to know a name to keep in mind, one who’s just coming on the radar?

Kris Medlin, a 21-year-old right-hander the Braves drafted in the 10th round last year out of Santa Ana College. Check out this ridiculously nasty numbers for short-season Danville last year:

20 relief appearances, 0.41 ERA, 10 saves, 22 innings, 14 hits, two runs, ONE earned, TWO WALKS and … 36 STRIKEOUTS!

Folks, I don’t care what level you’re talking, that’s stunning for a first-year pro. And he’s 21, which means he could get through the system relatively quickly, maybe in a couple years.

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 04:40 PM | Link to this

Check what Medlin did after getting his feet wet, as they say. In August he had six saves and a 0.00 ERA in 10 appearances (11-2/3 innings, with five hits, NO WALKS and 20 STRIKEOUTS.

File that one in the back of your brain _ but not too far back.

By Daybed Wagmoe

February 6, 2007 04:40 PM | Link to this

DOB - where did you read that about the new REM album being out this year? that’s exciting.

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 04:45 PM | Link to this

Regarding REM: It was in Rolling Stone recently. Said they planned to get in the studio in late January, so they might’ve already started. “I’ve started writing lyrics and working with the material that Peter [Buck] and Mike [Mills] have given me,” is what Mr. Stipe said at the time.

Didn’t mention anything about Bill Berry, unfortunately. Don’t know if he’s going to have anything to do with the record at all, but a while back I read that he was definitely planning to play with them at Rock and Roll Hall of Fame induction in March.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 6, 2007 04:46 PM | Link to this

Kris Medlin numbers = Holy Smokes.

By Novice Ned

February 6, 2007 04:50 PM | Link to this

DOB, excuse the question but is it easier to convert an outfielder who is recovering from an arm injury into a 2B than it is to teach Pete Orr how to slap the ball ala Ichiro? Seems like the Kelly Johnson work is a major renovation project while Pete Orr should be more like fine-tuning. Obviously, I’m missing something here as it appears they are completely by-passing Orr’s speed and relative experience playing second base in the bigs for a true rebuilding project in KJ. I loved KJ’s bat a few years ago and his patience at the plate. But it just seems risky to turn over the right side of the infield to inexperienced position players. That could defeat the bullpen gains, if we’re giving up 2-3 errors a game to lefty pull hitters.

By Head Coach

February 6, 2007 04:57 PM | Link to this

DOB , the Rome Braves roster has Medlin listed as a switch hitting pitcher. which is hilarious to say the least. I just have to believe that Cormier has no chance at making the roster. Wouldn’t it be prudent to stick him in the Richmond rotation so that when the Braves need a spot starter later on during the season , he will be ready.

By TennesseePaul

February 6, 2007 05:05 PM | Link to this

Obviously, I’m missing something

That would be the 363 minor league games Johnson has at Short Stop compared to the 175 games of Orr’s at SS or the 99 games of Orr’s at 2B. Orr’s total experience around 2B bag is 274.

By Head Coach

February 6, 2007 05:06 PM | Link to this

Ned , I question putting KJ at 2B to. However , he is a former SS and has spent weeks working with Glenn Hubbard during the off season learning the position . There is a reason Kelly Johnson is a former 1st round draft pick. He is an exceptional athlete and if Hubbard thinks that he can do the job , who am I to argue with him ?

By Gil

February 6, 2007 05:06 PM | Link to this

So much depends on the Liberty deal as far as Andrew Jones being signed to a new contract in Atlanta. Otherwise maybe the team is sold to an intrested party in Portland or moved to Las Vegas. It’s a dog eat dog world. In the mean time….

I still think the Braves are going to make a deal with the Devil Rays. I think it is the Rays who are holding things up right now, not the Braves. The Braves may well afford the extra extra relief man afford to give up Davies going into the deal but they may not feel they have to.

Face it folks, it is still all about the pitching. It is the one thing the Yankees could not throw money at to solve their problems. They could score 10 runs a night but they had to because their staff gave up 9.

As for the Thorman, give the kid a chance. He is still young but you are going to love his attitude. He leaves it all on the feild. He runs out every ground ball and plays hard. He reminds me very much of Mark Grace. Same type of player. He is not always going to be swinging for the fences. Will hit about 20 a year but will hit a lot of doubles and will leg a few triples. His glove work will not be spectacular but he is respectable. No one will cactch him asleep a the wheel anyway.

As for Kelly Johnson. After the season Giles had last year, just about anyone could come in and there would be be drop off in prodution in offense or defense. When the Braves let you walk, it is usually more than just the money as a reason. Besides, There is always the Nationals. They have a whole team full of second basemen from which to choose. Personally, I am waiting to get a glimps of Lillibridge who I think is the heir apparent leadoff 2b/ss for the Braves.

By TennesseePaul

February 6, 2007 05:14 PM | Link to this

Gil: I’m guessing you meant wouldn’t be a drop off? Giles managed to make it into 141 games last year. He hit .262 on the season. He hit .251 as a leadoff guy. I think KJ can match these figures.

By geauxbraves2000

February 6, 2007 05:15 PM | Link to this

Some are optimistic about the 2007 season, some maybe not so much. JS did a good job revamping the pen, if they stay healthy. However, the upgrade in the pen cost the offense (taking LaRoche’s numbers and Thorman’s projection) probably 10-15 HR and maybe 25-35 RBI. The new pen could probably make up the difference by allowing fewer HRs and RBIs than last year. The thing I’m most concerned about is the right side defense and how it may affect the pitchers. If the right side defense holds it’s own, then no problem, but if not, well, the pitchers are going to have to come inside on the right handed hitters to get them to pull the ball, and we all know what happens to some of those inside pitches about 450 later.

Could be interesting. The Braves could absolutely dominate or they could be just a mediocre team if injuries plague them again.

80 Million dollars sure doesn’t buy what it used to, does it?

Geaux Braves!!

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 05:16 PM | Link to this

Gil, I agree with some of what you said. But if you seriously believe there is any chance the Braves are going to be sold and moved to Portland or Las Vegas … uh, no. Not even a remote chance. Period.

By Greg in TN

February 6, 2007 05:17 PM | Link to this

Howdy folks…

DOB, this may have been covered by you or others recently, and if so my apologies, however is there any update as far as McCann’s ankle? Are there any lingering effects from last season that will rear it’s ugly head this year?

By Lew

February 6, 2007 05:19 PM | Link to this

I read in Chop Talk that Orr was one of several players working with Daddy McCan this offseason. I think that should be a required activity for a number of Braves -Langerhans, in particular. This Medlin kid sounds impressive. I think there has been too much alarmist thinking in regards to our farm system. It’s perfectly natural for there to be no ML ready players for a year or so when you call up 18 in one year. With the moves JS made this winter with Soriano and Gonzalez-with us controlling them for three years, we are now in excellent shape.

By Gil

February 6, 2007 05:25 PM | Link to this

Thought that would wake you up….

No, they are not going to move the team. And yes TennPaul, I meant there would not be a drop off.

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 05:25 PM | Link to this

Just got word that Lou Burdette, a member of the Braves Hall of Fame, died this morning of lung cancer. He was 80.

Burdette won 203 games from 1950-67, including a 179-120 record in 13 seasons with the Braves. He was also the Braves’ pitching coach in in 1972-73.

By journalist jimmy smith

February 6, 2007 05:40 PM | Link to this

prince fielder plays guitar? anyone who wishes to call prince fielder a sissy please do so when this journalist is nowhere around. prince fielder is formidable.

By Wayne in UT

February 6, 2007 05:46 PM | Link to this

We have lost some good ones in recent years; Spahn, Sain and now Burdette.

By TennesseePaul

February 6, 2007 05:49 PM | Link to this

DOB: Thanks for the post on Lou. It’s a bummer to hear.

With respects Lou, thank you for wearing the Braves uniform.

By Wayne in UT

February 6, 2007 05:52 PM | Link to this

I seem to recall that Kris Medlin was a SS before being converted to pitcher??? Does that ring a bell? That might be why he is listed as a switch hitter.

I say he is two years away at the earliest.

I am really excited about guys like Boyer, Devine, and some of the younger guys; Startup, Harrison, Reyes, Bueno.

I think we might see some surprises in the final 4 relief spots, maybe with a trade out there for either a LF or for some prospects.

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 05:52 PM | Link to this

Lew, not sure how much time Orr might have spent with McCann, since he was in Canada most of the winter. He just flew back late last week to get his driver’s license, that’s why he was at pitching camp Friday. Orr actually worked out for past month or so with Thorman at a place outside Toronto, midway between their two hometowns….

JJS, Prince Fielder is roughly the size of three Prince the recording artists.

By ssiscribe

February 6, 2007 06:04 PM | Link to this

Correct me if I’m wrong, but Lou won three games in the 1957 World Series, including Game 7 at Yankee Stadium, right? Saw his name in a trivia contest on the plaza during FanFest. Sorry to hear about his passing.

DOB, read the quotes from Bobby. No mention of Langerhans in LF? Should we read anything into that, or was that Bobby just overlooking him by accident.

Kris Medlin? May be worth driving up to Rome to see him, provided he doesn’t pitch like that in the spring. Otherwise, he may be in Missisippi. Impressive, regardless of the league.

So, how much work does Diaz get at first base in spring? And, speaking of last spring from my posts yesterday, where have you gone James Jurries? Did anybody in the entire organization have a worse 2006 (maybe Lerew?).

Later.

—30—

By ssiscribe

February 6, 2007 06:09 PM | Link to this

I need to learn how to spell. Sorry bout that (misspelled Mississippi in previous post). Altogether now:

“M, I, crooked letter, crooked letter I, crooked letter, crooked letter I, hump letter, hump letter I.”

—30—

By Choppinmama

February 6, 2007 06:24 PM | Link to this

Daybed: The most aggravating situation of the day is the way they have the “big name” guys hermetically sealed in the Hank Aaron room and the Tooner room. There were tons of people, especially the kids, that coulnd’t or wouldn’t stand in line for 2 or 3+ hours for an autograph. You couldn’t even stop by those two rooms and look through the windows to even see the players ‘cause the windows are all covered up. I was walking by and one poor kid was so upset that he couldn’t even see Chipper through the window. C’mon Event Planning Staff, how about making it possible to have a look at our guys signing in those rooms?

Since they’ve reduced FF to one day, it really is a logistic nightmare deciding which player to go see. I was in line at 9 am out front, about the 10th in line when the gates opened, then had to contend with all the runners headed to Frenchy and McCann. I went to the McCann line and was #246 when the tickets were handed out. Just crazy!!! And……there were people at 10 am lining up for the 3pm Chipper session.

Anyway, it’s stll great that these guys consent to participate. The free hot chocolate was a nice touch, and the spring housecleaning of miscellaneous Braves items netted me some nice playoff and WS balls, a couple of locker nametags, and a couple of auto’d photos of players past. Wish I had gone over to that booth a little earlier in the day for a couple of lineup cards and cracked/game-used bats.

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 06:31 PM | Link to this

Folks, from what I hear top Braves brass wasn’t pleased with how things were organized at FanFest and there will be improvements made in the future, assuming the event continues.

They agreed that the procedures were not fan-friendly, or at least could have been done a lot more logically to make things easier for people to get autographs of players they were there for.

Just wanted you do know, apparently they agreed you had every right to complain about how parts of the event were run.

By Matt

February 6, 2007 06:39 PM | Link to this

I think the starters and the bullpen will find a happy medium covering for eachother. There is no reason why our starting pitchers cannot go deep into the 7th inning or longer.

Hopefully when games are locked away, they use guys like Yates and Morlan and Stockman….so they can save Soriano, Villareal, Gonzalez, McBride and such for more critical situations.

By Choppinmama

February 6, 2007 06:39 PM | Link to this

This is for all you musicians out there……can you explain how Prince did not get fried performing on a wet stage in the rain? I was a nervous basketcase that we’d be seeing some nasty electrocution footage on the next “When Good Guitarists Get Dead”

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 06:44 PM | Link to this

Scribe, good catch on the Cox quote. Can barely read my own scribbling from that morning session Friday. It should have been Langerhans, Wilson and Diaz in left, not Thorman.

Only thing he said when I mentioned that Thorman was so humble he said he was still bringing both his 1B and OF gloves to spring training, Bobby said, well, it’s always good to take some fly balls. But it was pretty clear that Thorman’s no longer in the plan for LF, not the way Cox had envisioned early in the offseason before the Braves traded LaRoche.

I’d be surprised if Thorman plays any OF in spring training. He’ll be focused solely on getting better at 1B and on hitting, I’d imagine. By the way, most Braves believe he’ll be fine defensively this year _ not exceptional like LaRoche but more that serviceable, and with potential to become above-average defensively.

By Daybed Wagmoe

February 6, 2007 06:52 PM | Link to this

dave, thanks for the REM bit. glad to hear that the “braves brass” are feeling my pain about fanfest too!

does anyone else think that the picture of Wickman looks like chipper will look like if he keeps on hanging out at mcdonald’s? that goatee, the expression on his face, everything just looks like chipper to me.

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 06:55 PM | Link to this

By the way, in case anyone is wondering (or cares at all), Burdette’s name was spelled Lew and Lou in various places during his career. Braves point this out in their own release, since apparently it’s also spelled both ways in their own records.

By Carolina Lady

February 6, 2007 07:06 PM | Link to this

Burdette’s autograph reads “Lou”.

By ncscoots

February 6, 2007 07:16 PM | Link to this

“Good Guitarists Get Dead”…too fine. That’s wurlitzer-worthy, LMAO.

Head Coach was close earlier, but just a little off. To wit, it’s the strength of the rotation that makes the bullpen either more or less successful. Poor starters expose a bullpen, regardless of how good they are (I believe the the Mets are about to find that out, to their detriment). While I do think the bullpen is going to be just sick (not just the three-headed-monster, but the quality depth behind them), it’s still gonna depend on the starters logging enough innings to keep them fresh and nasty. And I can not yet drink the Kool-Aid on the Braves’ starters. Yes, they have the potential to be an outstanding group, but crash-and-burn isn’t out of the realm, either. It’s just too soon to make a judgment on which way the teeter-totter is gonna teeter (or totter, I guess). That said, it’s about the only thing currently restraining my optimism. Unless, of course, Braves suddenly trade for one of the blog’s oft-mentioned “leadoff hitters”. In which case, I’ll know the season is doomed :-)

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 6, 2007 07:19 PM | Link to this

I think you have to take Cox’s comments about the LF situation with some caution. He also said that he was looking forward to having “Gilly and Roachy” this year knowing full well there was never a chance Giles was staying and a better than good possiblity that LaRoche would be gone. Despite the ramblings of some (rolling eyes) Cox is a good man who is never going to speak ill of his players unless they are the true underbelly of society. Cox knows very well that, while the Langerhans/Diaz/Wilson platoon will be servicable, a Baldelli or Cabrera would be worlds better.

I know what some are going to say about what I’m about to say, but I’m going to say it anyway. I still think the Braves could acquire Baldelli. The Rays are realizing that nobody is going to give into their outrageous demands. No team in the majors needs an outfielder so bad that they are going to give up two quality major league pitchers. The Rays need pitching. Even if its just above serviceable pitching. That would be better than what they have right now. Their rotation would be the worse in baseball if not for the Nats. The only reason the Nats’ are worse is because they don’t have one. The Rays bullpen is even worse. Take McClung out of the mix and it is maybe Double A quality. Maybe. I think if JS waits until the first or second week of March and offers Davies or Cormier; Paronto, Yates, or Devine; and Escobar that the Rays will bite unless a better deal comes along. I would prefer Paronto or Yates simply because I think Devine will be special and wouldn’t mind holding onto him. But, if it took Devine then the deals needs to get done.

I was at work today racking my brain thinking about what teams would need Baldelli and what they could offer. I see the main competition being between the Padres, White Sox, Rangers, Marlins, Dodgers, and Giants. Honestly, among those teams the only ones that I see being able to provide the variety of positions the Braves could are the Marlins, White Sox, and Dodgers. However, all of them have been reluctant to give up too much.

By the way, if a trade did happen Diaz would probably get traded for a prospect unless JS could rob somebody for a pitcher.

By ncscoots

February 6, 2007 07:19 PM | Link to this

Hey, CL, trade ya an old Toro for the Burdette autograph, LOL.

By Carolina Lady

February 6, 2007 07:21 PM | Link to this

A quick Google search reveals that he was born Nov 1926 in Nitro, WVA and waschristened Selva Lewis Burdette Jr. Wonder why he signed as Lou?

By journalist jimmy smith

February 6, 2007 07:22 PM | Link to this

and how did carolina lady obtain this autograph? there must be a story here. wilbur? orville? lou? lew? the mick? whitey? ol’ diz? and did carolina lady hear about ol’ diz’ toe? now, langerhans … will be the surprise of the new season.

By Carolina Lady

February 6, 2007 07:23 PM | Link to this

Hey, Scoots! I was wondering what happened to that Toro you said you were sending for Christmas……

Ain’t gettin’ my Burdette baseball, even as much as I love ya! :-))

Ruth neither.

By Carolina Lady

February 6, 2007 07:28 PM | Link to this

Hey, Jimmy! Mr Burdette took pity on a small girl who was too shy to ask for his autograph. He walked over, took the ball from her hand and signed it “Lou Burdette”. A prized possession.

By KC

February 6, 2007 07:30 PM | Link to this

I picked up a Sporting News MLB 2007 preview issue at Publix today, and saw what I’m sure is the most ridiculous thing I’ll read all week.

I’m paraphrasing, but their prediction went something to this effect…

“The Braves will slug with the best of them, but lack of speed will keep them in the middle of an improved NL East.”

I was sure that any “Braves will finish 3rd in the East” predictions would be followed by words like “Hampton and Hudson can’t relied upon”. But no. The reason the Braves will finish behind both NY and Phili, according to at least one Sporting News writer, is that they don’t have enough speed. WHAT?????

You could make a better argument for the value of speed in a post-season setting where you may need to manufacture runs, but over 162 games that argument doesn’t hold water. The Braves were the best offensive team in the NL last year with no speed to speak of whatsoever.

Furthermore, several Braves teams over their 14 year run did not have a lot of speed or a true leadoff hitter. In 1995, Grissom stole 29 bases, but he also hit .258 with a paltry .317 OBP… and no one else stole more than 8 bases that season. In 1998 and 1999, the Braves featured leadoff hitters Walt Weiss and Gerald Williams.

I think the loss of LaRoche will be enough to dethrone the Braves’ lineup as the best in the league, but they’ve still got plenty of firepower to keep them in the top 3 or 4 in the league in runs scored. With a rotation that is better than most and the best bullpen in the game… that should be more than enough to win a lot of games.

If you don’t think the Braves will win the division… fine. But middle of the pack… because of a “lack of speed”????

Asinine.

By journalist jimmy smith

February 6, 2007 07:38 PM | Link to this

google images - lou burdette signature on lew burdette card. strange, but true. this explains how carolina lady has such a signature on her baseball. other baseball players may adopt this practice when checking in hotels.

By KC

February 6, 2007 07:39 PM | Link to this

DOB: I understand your point on Hampton, but if Hampton has an excellent 2nd half, I’m sure JS would be able to swing a deal for some promising young player… as he did in the Millwood trade.

By Head Coach

February 6, 2007 08:49 PM | Link to this

Yea, there is an idea. First it was trade Hudson , now its trade Hampton. The season hasn’t even been played and you have no idea what Hampton will bring to the table. Hey , maybe we should trade Smoltz. No , wait. Smoltz is a free agent and the end of this season , yea trade Smoltz because he will be gone in free agency , then trade Hampton. Andruw is gone too. well what do you know , we have little pitching and a lights out bullpen with nothing to save. Hey KC , we should fire Cox and let you run the team. Your a genius , I mean brilliant !

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 6, 2007 08:50 PM | Link to this

I, like most here, am a bit cautious to say that McCann will duplicate his offensive season from last season. But, you know what is really interesting. He did what he did with an injured ankle for 2/3 of the season. What will he be like this year injury free.

By Greg in TN

February 6, 2007 09:44 PM | Link to this

Rest in peace, Lew Burdette, and thank you for everything you did wearing a Braves uniform.

By Tomahawkin

February 6, 2007 09:56 PM | Link to this

—KC— there were many braves teams during the run that had little or no speed and what were the results…I don’t take much of what they say seriously

I like the cats who do the Athlon Sports baseball annuals better, they usually back up they’re predictions with valid material

Robert, J-IS-BEST

That reasoning of you’re quote “I, like most here, am a bit cautious to say that McCann will duplicate his offensive season from last season. But, you know what is really interesting. He did what he did with an injured ankle for 2/3 of the season. What will he be like this year injury free.”

Makes me think of how sick B-Macc can be injury free, even though that’s a rareity 4 catchers…but it makes me think that he is more than capable of putting up Piazza (Prime) like numbers of 140 games….Lovely…

By MBATL

February 6, 2007 10:07 PM | Link to this

I don’t think Cox would play Johnny Bench in his prime 140 games at catcher, but we’ll see. Sounds like Bobby is gonna use Pena at least every 5th day, so that would mean about 130 starts for Brian, plus probably a few PH opportunities. (who’s the poor starter that gets Pena’s bat instead of Brian’s every time out?)

Burdette threw the Braves’ ninth no-hitter (1960 vs. Philadelphia) and was MVP of the 1957 World Series after going 3-0 with an 0.67 ERA and three complete games in a 4-3 series win over the New York Yankees.

I was generally familiar with Burdette, but, that has to be one of the greatest WS lines ever. I looked it up, and that was 3 complete game victories, with a total of 2 runs allowed; the last 2 shutouts, and the Game 7 shutout on 2 days rest. Wow!

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 10:15 PM | Link to this

KC, that’s about the farthest thing from anyone connected with the Braves’ minds, believe me.

Your logic is so shaky. First, if he’s having a real good year and Braves are in contention, why would they trade him for a young player when he’s got more postseason experience than any Braves pitcher except Smoltz?

Secondly, why would a team trade for him when he’s going to be a free agent at end of next season and is owed $15 mill in 2008 (that we’ve already addressed, sort of, so no need to repeat arguments.)

And thirdly, what makes you assume Hampton would agree to being traded with two months left in the season when he loves pitching for the Braves and Cox?

Other than those small matters, yeah, I can see where you’d be thinking a lot at this point about trading Hampton.

Give it a rest. It’s really not even on the back burner, much less something anyone’s discussing.

By Lew

February 6, 2007 10:27 PM | Link to this

Ma’am-Your signed baseball notwithstanding, there is only one way to spell Lew. Stinky-You’re still a Whiny, Age Obsessed Little Jerk.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 6, 2007 10:37 PM | Link to this

Yeah,DOB is right. Hampton isn’t going anywhere. Besides his contract is up after 2008. Hudson is a better option to get traded next offseason simply because he is a bit cheaper and his contract runs through 2010 if the team option is picked up in 2010. I do think a team like the Yanks would take a chance on Hampton but would they really offer anything worthy in return.

By David O'Brien

February 6, 2007 10:45 PM | Link to this

Look at it this way. KC, take a step back from this Hampton thing and think about how your logic sounds to folks around baseball right now.

You’re discussing trading a pitcher who’s in final two years of a colossal contract, a deal widely criticized because of Hampton’s spotty performance and injuries in the first six years of it. It was an eight-year, $121 million deal that the Rockies admitted was overpriced but that they knew they had to give him in order to lure him to high altitude.

He’s owed $29.5 million over the 2007-08 seasons. He’s 34, hasn’t pitched since late in the 2005 season, hasn’t won more than 14 games since 2000, has pitched 180 innings once since 2001, recorded as many as 90 strikeouts once once 2001, and had five DL stints in 2005, two for a herniated disk.

Oh, and had knee and Tommy John surgery in 2005.

And you think he’s a guy who could be ripe for trade come summer.

Again, Hampton’s a great presence in the clubhouse and could be huge for the Braves if he stays healthy and wins 12-15 games. But his value to them is greater than it would be to most teams. Braves are and have paid him a lot of money and are hoping to get a return on the investment with two good, healthy seasons.

So far, they’ve got from him a couple of great partial seasons and a lot of good influence on their clubhouse and young pitchers.

By Lew

February 6, 2007 11:08 PM | Link to this

DOB-I knew we were both right. I quote from the Decenber Issue of Chop Talk, an article about Howie McCann’s Windward Baseball Acadeny-“Brian and other Braves, including Kelly Johnson and Pete Orr, start making their way to Windward in the weeks before Spring Training.” Apparently they hadn’t gone yet and were still hitting snowballs in the Great White North (which is about 8 below at the moment). 9 days until Wurlitzers are awarded. How about a portrait of John Tesh. Would that work as an award?

By TennesseePaul

February 6, 2007 11:13 PM | Link to this

What will he be like this year injury free

Tired? Maybe? Of course, last year towards the end of the season when he was feeling better, he also played more than normal. Probably because of Pratt. Pena should be better. Hell, he could be just as bad but at least he’s one of ours. I’ll tolerate that better than Pratt.

By supa

February 6, 2007 11:15 PM | Link to this

Good analysis on Hampton. He’s definitely not trade material. But if he’s having a good season and the Braves chances are fading in August, I’d trade him in a heartbeat for a prospect or two, even if it means we eat some of his salary.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 6, 2007 11:28 PM | Link to this

I think McCann will be able to get plenty of rest because of Bryan Pena. I find it somewhat strange that Pena isn’t getting much attention. He played well in 2005 and played extremely well when received the chance to play in 2006. I said last week that I think he could wind up being one of, if not the, best backup catchers in all of baseball. He is capable of hitting .300 and hustles. You can’t ask for more. And Lord knows he is better than Pratt or whatever dinosaur that Cox and JS could scrounge up.

By Braves fan 202

February 7, 2007 12:12 AM | Link to this

Robert, you spend your life on these blogs.Find somin else to do you bobby cox hating piece. Are you a braves fan or just someone who notices stupid things, I will kill myself the day pena bats 300. And how was signing pratt a bad idea, they needed some experience and an extra catcher, so they picked up cheap tod pratt who did pretty well when he needed it.

By Head Coach

February 7, 2007 12:31 AM | Link to this

Breyan Pena is an upgrade over Pratt. Pena is only 24 , which is fifteen years younger than Pratt’s ancient 39. Pena brings a .302 batting average to the table and he’s a switch hitter. Pena will make about 327,000 this season compared to the 850,000 they payed Pratt last season. I agee with Robert(JIB)and point out that he should have been the back up catcher last season.

By KC

February 7, 2007 12:54 AM | Link to this

DOB: I think maybe I’ve given you the wrong impression on this Hampton thing.

I’m not of the impression that Hampton will be traded… not for a young player, old player, or anything in between.

As I think you’ve pointed out… If he doesn’t have a great 2nd half, he’d be awfully hard to trade. If he does, it would be hard to part with him. Not to mention the fact that he can veto any trade, that in and of itself is enough to make it unlikely.

My point was simply this… you said originally that Hampton would have to be completely healthy and have a great season before anyone would want to touch him.

I simply said that I didn’t think it would take a great full season (great in terms of season totals). I feel that if he is great in the 2nd half, that would be enough to make Hampton a desirable commodity to a number of teams.

I’m not saying he’ll be “ripe” for a trade. I just disagreed with the notion that no one would want him unless he has a great season all the way through.

I’m not thinking that Hampton will be traded after this season. I’m not even necessarily thinking that he should be traded. I suspect as you do that he’ll still be a Braves next season.

By DAP

February 7, 2007 12:54 AM | Link to this

i dont think there is any need to trade anyone to resign andruw. all that needs to be done is tp have his contract pay him less in 08 and increase later.

after 07 wickman’s contract will be up wilson’s will be up and renteria will probably be traded to make room for some of our young guys. this frees up(and im just estimating from what i remember these guys are owed) about 14.5 mil. (i counted 6.5 for wicky, 6 for renteria and 2 for wilson could be a little off, but you get the idea) with 14.5 mil it wont be hard to pay hampton and hudson’s increase, smoltz extension and an increase for andruw for the first year of his new contract.

after 08, smoltz will probably retire, hamptons contract will be up (we might be able to resign him for less) and we will have money freed up to again increase andruws salary, and figure out some extentions for our young guys.

i didnt take the time to get this really detailed, but you guys get the idea.

give andruw his 8 year, 140 mil contract and spread it out so you arent paying him 17.5 mil(thats the average) in the first year. give him like 15 his first year and the payroll will be fine.

By KC

February 7, 2007 12:55 AM | Link to this

Head Coach: “Hey KC , we should fire Cox and let you run the team. Your a genius , I mean brilliant!”

HC, your confidence in me is noted and appreciated!! lol

I’m not sure how I got pegged as a “trade Hampton” guy. I never said (or even thought) anything of the sort. All I did was disagree with the notion that no one would want him unless he has an outstanding season from start to finish.

I’m glad Hampton is here, and if he is back in “ace” form by the end of the season and heading into next year… then frankly 15 million is not a bad price (for a legit ace) in this market. Particularly if new ownership allows JS to spend a few more dollars.

By Head Coach

February 7, 2007 01:21 AM | Link to this

KC, you got pegged bacause you suggested trading Hampton. Yea , dude you said it. This is the last time I wll explain this concerning Tommy John Surgery : The surgury requires a full year of rehabilitation and typically another year of pitching before returning to pre-injury form. Which is why it’s a total of 18-24 months or a year and a half to two years. Also , some pitchers end up throwing harder than before the surgery. Hampton had his surgery on september 26th of 2005 , do the math dude , do the math……. please.

By David O'Brien

February 7, 2007 01:39 AM | Link to this

This keeps getting overlooked by a few people suggesting Pena and other youngsters will make barely over $327,000 this season.

People, repeat after me: The major league minimum salary, under the new labor agreement, is $380,000 this season, up from $327,000. So guys with any experience, even some with a half a season or less of service, are going to be making about $400,000.

Just wanted to reiterate that, since it apparently is falling on deaf ears in some quarters. Not a big deal, but for the sake of accuracy, just try to keep it in mind.

By David O'Brien

February 7, 2007 01:54 AM | Link to this

OK, it’s late and I don’t know if anyone’s up, but here’s one to consider. I was just organizing some stuff and getting ready to do a preview thing for the Sunday paper, and started thinking about projected Braves leaders for 2007.

Now, I know everyone would pick Andruw for homers, but how many will he hit? (and maybe you think someone else on the team might hit more. if so, who?)

We’ll do all of them later, but for now, the one that intrigues me is RBIs (or RBI as most places refer to them; our newspaper style is RBIs, for those who might wonder why I write it that way).

Who’s going to lead the Braves in RBIs? I mean, they’ve got three legit 100-RBI candidates in Andruw, Chipper and Francoeur. It’d be tough for McCann, a catcher who’ll probably sit every fifth day, to do it, even as well as he hits with RISP.

Here goes: Andruw 125, Francoeur 110, Chipper 105 (yes, his highest since 2003), McCann 85.

Let me know what you think will happen (and do home runs, too, if you want. We’ll check in with all of the projected team leaders in the next week or so, maybe even in the next blog).

By James Mayo

February 7, 2007 03:36 AM | Link to this

Early on, keep the starters in long through 6 or 7 innings to then shut down the opposition with setup/closer combos…closer to the all star break begin to lean heavy on the bullpen, strecting them an extra inning or two if were doing good, to save on the starters, so by years end and playoffs begin our starters can regain the lengthy games and win us another post season birth and possibly World Series Championship…but we are going to be looking for solid power and Defense soon during spring training I belive.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 7, 2007 07:24 AM | Link to this

Braves Fan 202, first of all, I’m not the Robert who is always bashing Cox. Totally different dude. So, before you go insulting me get your facts straight so you don’t make yourself out to be a total a**. Okay! Just a piece of advice. Get the right Robert correct, because I’m not he. In fact, I have been one of the ones who has railed against him the most. Your apology for your mistake, insult, and apparent ignorance is accepted.

Also, Braves Fan 202, I hate to see anyone die but you probably should start thinking about the way you are going to kill yourself. Look at Pena’s minor league numbers and his major league numbers, albeit brief stints. In the minors he was constantly around an average of .300. And as far as Pratt goes, the Braves obviously didn’t need an “experienced” backup. McCann looked just fine from where I was sitting. But, I guess that is if you like 22 year old catchers who hit .330, 20+Hrs, and drive in over 90RBIs. Oh, and have the utmost respect of every pitcher on the staff. All this while the great Todd Pratt couldn’t even hit his weight and didn’t look any better defensively than B. Pena.

By ssiscribe

February 7, 2007 07:48 AM | Link to this

OK, gotta do this on the fly with a meeting upcoming, but I’ll take the bait and weigh in on RBIs:

AJ: 130 (monster year if healthy) Frenchy: 110 (lotta guys on base for him) McCann: 85 (right on, think AJ will clear the bases a lot) Chipper: 80 (only because I project Hoss missing time with an injury; if he plays 150 games, he’ll top 100) Thorman: 70 (guys ahead of him will clean ‘em off, but he’ll get his share).

Homers? I think AJ has the best chance to lead the team (duh), with 40-plus. Frenchy is candidate to hit 30, as is Hoss, if (again) he’s healthy. Thorman will hit close to 20. McCann, who hit 24 in 130 games last year, will hit 20 to 25.

There. Off I go. Discuss and enjoy your day.

An aside as I go: DOB, how serious do you think Bobby is about giving Diaz time at first? I could see it for the first week or so of Grapefruit play, but at some point you’ve gotta get Thorman in there for as many innings as possible, and also give Wilson some work (I know split-squads help in that regard, but there’s not too many of them, I don’t think).

Later on, denzines.

—30—

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 08:36 AM | Link to this

Who’s going to lead the Braves in RBIs? I mean, they’ve got three legit 100-RBI candidates in Andruw, Chipper and Francoeur. It’d be tough for McCann, a catcher who’ll probably sit every fifth day, to do it, even as well as he hits with RISP.

Probably Andruw—he’ll likely be hitting cleanup behind three solid on-base guys and be in the lineup virtually everyday. The ability to drive in runs has a lot to do with where a batter hits in the lineup, who he is hitting behind and how often he is in the lineup. That makes Andruw the odds on favorite to lead the team.

Chipper doesn’t have a player like himself, who is consistently on-base, hitting in front of him and may not be in the lineup quite as often and AJ. But Chipper is going to be the team’s best hitter. He’ll put up his usual .300 AVG/.400 OBP/.500 SLG.

Obviously, I’m missing something here as it appears they are completely by-passing Orr’s speed and relative experience playing second base in the bigs for a true rebuilding project in KJ.

Novice Ned,

You are missing Orr’s .320 OBP in 480 minor league games and his .304 OBP in 214 major league games. Johnson’s OBP in the minors was .366 in 601 games and is .334 in 87 major league games.

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 08:47 AM | Link to this

It would be interesting to look at the correlation between hitting with runners in scoring position and RBI. My guess is there is a correlation but the correlation is stronger between RBI and things like position in the batting order, plate appearances and OBP of hitters in front of the RBI producer.

By Gil

February 7, 2007 09:23 AM | Link to this

My old football coach once told me the team with the best 22 players did not always win. It was usually the one with the best 44. So it is with baseball. Depth is an important key often overlooked.

Signing Wilson was a great plan “B” for first base this year. Plus a guy who has great “big fly” pinch hit numbers.

As for Pena. The kid can play. But you do not put two unproven catchers on a major leaugue roster and contend. There are many reasons to pick up a guy like Todd Pratt.

Teaching young catchers how to set up to throw out base stealers. Blocking moves etc. If all a young catcher can do is hit eventually they will move him to another position.

One thing the opposing teams did on the Braves a lot last year was steal bases. You cannot allow a weakness like that to be exploited. It is like giving up a double everytime you give up a lead off walk. Of course, a lot of times those steals were on the pitchers but they still go show up against Brian’s stat sheet.

I was sad that Estrada was traded but evidently the Braves knew they had something special in McCann, but I don’t think Brian is the defensive player Estrada is.

Projected RBI totals for 2007.

Johnson 15 HR- 60RBI Renteria 20 HR 85RBI C Jones 35 HR 125RBI A Jones 45 HR 135RBI Francour 30 HR 100RBI McCann 25 HR 85RBI Thorman 20 HR 80RBI Langerhans/Diaz 30 HR 100 RBI (platoon)

By KC

February 7, 2007 09:25 AM | Link to this

HEAD COACH: No sir. I absolutely did not suggest trading Hampton. Go back and check the posts.

By Yars

February 7, 2007 09:52 AM | Link to this

If the lineup stays healthy, I predict the following: Kelly Johnson: .280/10/50 Edgar Renteria: .292/13/62 Chipper Jones: .323/32/109 Andruw Jones: .277/43/119 Jeff Francoeur: .279/30/107 Scott Thorman: .281/17/70 Brian McCann: .295/15/77 Ryan Langerhans: .282/9/50 Matt Diaz: .302/8/43 Craig Wilson: .273/13/55

By Lew

February 7, 2007 09:57 AM | Link to this

Shaun-RBIs depend on two things and only two things-the hitter and having runners on base. It’s real simple. Gil-I think your projections are somewhat overly optimistic-especially your projected 30HR 100RBIs from Langerhans/Diaz. There is not that much power between them. Maybe 20 would be somewhat more realistic, As far as Chipper knocking in 125, it would really depend on his health and KJ and the bottom of the order getting on base a whole lot.

By Daybed Wagmoe

February 7, 2007 10:07 AM | Link to this

good idea dave. i’m including projections for the starting rotation, too, even though it’s not asked for.

Johnson 11 hr, 40 rbi / Renteria 15 hr, 60 rbi / Chipper 34 hr, 115 rbi / Andruw 48 hr, 130 rbi / McCann 27 hr, 90 rbi / Francouer 34 hr, 120 rbi / Thorman 17 hr, 60 rbi / LF (Langerhans and Diaz) 11 hr, 80 rbi

is thorman a rookie this year? he only had 128 AB last year, and doesn’t one need 130 AB (or is plate appearances, which would be 133) to have rookie status?

Smoltz 20-9 3.20 era / Hudson 15-10 3.95 era / Hampton 13-6 3.70 era / James 14-8 4.10 era / Davies 9-12 4.50 era (sorry kyle)

that gives the starting rotation a record of 71-45, and that leaves 46 decisions for the bullpen. i would guess that they’ll decrease the blown saves total by at least 10 (19 down from 29 last year), which would leave their record 27-19…making for a record of 98-64. i know that there are many that don’t foresee that kind of record from this team this year, but that’s the record i got after adding up my projections (i.e., i didn’t start with a 98-64 record and work backwards). for one thing, i think smoltz’s win total will increase, given the strong bullpen. same with hudson. i think 13 wins from hampton is reasonable, and i’d expect him to have more than 6 losses…i’m probably overestimated chuck james by giving him 14 wins in his second year, but i think 11-14 wins by him is reasonable.

on the offensive front, i figure johnson and renteria to have lower rbi totals because of the weakness at the bottom of the lineup — i don’t envision very high OBP in the 7 and 8 spots (and, of course, the 9 spot too). i’m guessing that the bulk of renteria’s rbi will be runs scored by johnson. i can account for chipper’s 100+ rbi because i’m betting on johnson and renteria being on base a lot.

By Daybed Wagmoe

February 7, 2007 10:16 AM | Link to this

i realized that in my last post, i accounted for every bullpen loss to be a “blown save.” i realize that’s not always the case — relievers will give up a lead when it’s not a save situation (e.g., tied games, extra-innings). i’ll change the bullpen record to 24-22, giving this team a record of 95-67.

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 10:20 AM | Link to this

Gil,

I think the NL East this season is going to come down to depth and luck (i.e., health and lucky bounces). The Braves, Mets and Phillies look pretty even at this point.

As far as McCann, from all the reports I’ve heard and read McCann is a great defensive catcher.

He was sixth in steals allowed but that probably had more to do with the Braves pitching staff—the Braves ranked eighth in baseball in highest OBP allowed.

And he ranked near the bottom in caught stealing percentage, but they probably had something to do with playing in one of the stealingest divisions in baseball. Schneider and LoDuca also ranked near the bottom.

Another thing to consider is the pitchers role in allowing steals. Tim Hudson was sixth in the league in steals allowed. How much of that had to do with McCann and how much Hudson.

One more thing: a situation has to be just right for stealing a base—right runner, right inning, right score, right number of outs, right hitter. There aren’t many steal attempts anyway in a ballgame. And in this day and age, with power playing a big role in offense, most teams carefully pick their spots and aren’t going to steal unless they have a good shot at success. So you probably can’t tell too much about a catcher’s abilities to throw out runners unless he is extremely good or extremely bad at it.

Just my view of steals against. Too many variables to determine if McCann is good or bad at catching thieves.

By KC

February 7, 2007 10:30 AM | Link to this

Yars: I think most of your predictions are very realistic. I’ll only disagree with you on a few things.

First, I think if Thorman plays everyday, he’s going to hit better than 20 HR’s. If he falters, I think it will be in terms of batting avg. and OBP… but not in the power dept. Also, you might be a little on kind side with your Langerhanz projections.

The only thing I think you’re way off on is your Brian McCann projection. The only way McCann finishes with only 15 HR’s is if he spends a large portion of the season on the DL (let’s hope not).

McCann hit 24 homers and 93 RBI last year in a season that included a stint on the DL in addition to his regular days off. But when you look at how McCann’s season trended, you’ll find that he was showing off a big-time power stroke by the end of the season.

After the all-star break (in 238 AB’s) McCann hit 18 homers and drove in 64 runs. To put that in perspective… project his 2nd half numbers out to 550 AB’s, and here’s what you’ll have: 42 homers, 149 RBI.

Now… I’m not suggesting that he’ll finish this season with those totals. In fact it would be nearly impossible in the 450 AB’s he’s likely to get. But my point is that this kid IS a power hitter. There’s absolutely, positively NO WAY McCann finishes with less than 20-25 homers this season if he remains healthy.

Though… McCann could get more AB’s this year with the addition of Craig Wilson. Reason being… Wilson can catch. When the Braves’ regular catcher gets a day off, BC never uses him to pinch hit because he always wants to have a catcher on the bench in case of an injury. Wilson would only be an emergency catcher, but he has enough experience behind the plate that Bobby might feel comfortable using McCann in late-game situations on his days off.

By ssiscribe

February 7, 2007 10:47 AM | Link to this

OK, just spent a few minutes thinking about the starting rotation projections. Here goes:

Smoltz: 15-12 (know that seems low, but I’m going to low-ball here while expecting him at 40, if he stays healthy, to surprise and amaze us yet again). Hudson: 17-10 (he is the key to the entire thing, starting wise. Time for Huddy to pitch like the No. 1 we expect him to be). Hampton: 12-9 (think he’ll start a little slow, then really hit his stride after the Break). James: 12-10 (love his deceptive motion and bulldog mentality). Davies/Cormier/Villarreal: 14-12 (I give Kyle 10-10, Cormier 1-1 and Villarreal 3-1 in spot starting assignments). Total for rotation: 70-53. That leaves 39 games for the bullpen. I can see something like 22-17, which would give the Braves a final record of 92-70.

Where this could change: — IF Smoltz stays healthy and wins, say, 18 games, and if Hudson fulfills his potential, and if Hampton gets settled in early in the season, I could see adding another three or four wins to the total.

— IF Smoltz (or Hampton) lands on the DL for an extended period of time, and if Hudson continues to struggle, I could see taking away six to eight wins.

First scenario: 97-65 at very best Second scenario: 84-78 at worst

I think somewhere in the 90-to-94 win range is realistic to expect. Less than 90, with the upgrades to the bullpen, will be disappointing to me. Much more than 94 is almost a little unrealistic because of the age/inactivity of 3/5ths of the starting rotation.

—30—

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 10:48 AM | Link to this

Lew,

You could simplify it like this—RBI depend on opportunity and the hitter. Hitters who are behind high OBP and come to the plate more get more opportunities. Opportunity plays more of a role and hitter ability plays less of a role than a lot of people realize.

Look at Ruben Sierra in 1993: .233 AVG/.288 OBP/.390 SLG and 101 RBI in 158 games. Does anyone actually believe a hitter this bad had some innate ability to hit better with runners in scoring position?

Here are his stats with runners on base: .222 AVG/.273 OBP/ .500 SLG.

With RISP: .243/.338/.462. Better (perhaps because the pitcher had to throw him strikes with less room for error) but still nothing at all special.

Sierra drove in so many runs because he had some power and he had a lot of opportunities (Rickey Henderson posted a .469 OBP in 90 games with Oakland in ‘93 and Sierra was in the middle of the lineup every game for 158 games).

By The Grinch

February 7, 2007 10:56 AM | Link to this

30 home runs and 100 ribbie’s out of Langerhaans/Diaz? Gil, you make KC sound like Ron Roberts. Hope you’re right. I say Johnson: .265/8/60, Renteria: .285/12/65, Chipper: .305/28/100, Andruw: .270/43/120, McCann: .302/15/80, Francour: .270/30/85, Thorman: .265/15/65, Diaz/Langy/Wilson: .270/17/70(homers and RBI’s that high because of Wilson, AVG that high because of Diaz).

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 11:06 AM | Link to this

I think somewhere in the 90-to-94 win range is realistic to expect. Less than 90, with the upgrades to the bullpen, will be disappointing to me.

I don’t know if 90-94 is realistic, I think 88-90 is more like it. Pitching improved and offense will fall back some.

By The Grinch

February 7, 2007 11:11 AM | Link to this

I should add that I think Johnson and Thorman will improve noticeably next year; I have their numbers that low ‘cause I think they’ll struggle early. Scribe, I gotta disagree with you on Smoltz. I would’ve predict 15-12 for him for the reason you say if we had last years bullpen, but him not having to go as deep will save his arm this year, IMO. Also, I just can’t see him losing 12 with this bullpen unless the offense really struggles. I would say Smoltz: 17-8 3.42, Hudson 15-12 3.95(you’re STILL gonna lose the bet, KC), Hampton 14-11 3.73, James 14-12 3.80, Davies(if, heaven forbid, they put him #5) 8-12, 4.93, Cormier(if #5) 10-8, 4.25. Of course, all of these could be incredibly off. :-)

By ssiscribe

February 7, 2007 11:23 AM | Link to this

Shaun: While it would not surprise me at all to see this team go 88-74, I would be disappointed. Certainly, the offense has dropped off, but I don’t think the drop is going to be as much as people think.

The upgrades to the pitching staff will go a long way to offset Thorman for LaRoche and KJ for Gilly. I think the Braves will get more offense from Pena than Pratt, and more offense from whatever combination we have in left field. And, if Chipper stays healthy and plays the 150 games Hoss swears he’s going to play (I gotta stop calling him Hoss; whenever I write it, I think of Marian Hossa), then you’ve helped to compensate even further for the loss of LaRoche and Gilly.

Grinch: Bro, I’d love to see Smoltz go 17-8, and certainly I don’t doubt he can do it, especially with a bullpen that won’t be giving away his wins every time we turn around. I just am worried that at some point in time, the 200-plus innings, his age and four surgeries is going to start slowing him down just a bit.

Still, 15-12 at his age, after all he’s been through, would be quite impressive in and of itself. And, if Hudson pitches the way he should, then that’s quite a 1-2 at the top of the rotation, with the two lefties (Hampton and Chuck James &*^ch) to follow.

Hey, it wasn’t in the 20s this morning. Must be spring, right?

—30—

By Lew

February 7, 2007 11:33 AM | Link to this

Shaun-That’s what I said. It depends on the hitter and having runners on. Real simple-no need to overanalyze.

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 11:41 AM | Link to this

ssiscribe,

Well, looking at it position-by-position, while no one is due for a significant decline, only Francouer is a good possibility for a significant improvement. Every other position is due for a slight decline or to stay the same. Firstbase may be more than a slight decline, although Thorman and Wilson should be fine.

By ernesto

February 7, 2007 11:42 AM | Link to this

I was just checking out the schedule and the East might come down to who gets off to a hot start this year. The Braves, Mets and Phillies play each other a ton in the first month and a half.

By TennesseePaul

February 7, 2007 11:48 AM | Link to this

Morning All. Couple things… I don’t think Brayan Pena is a switch hitter any more. DOB do you know if Pena switch hits still? I could have sworn I read some where that he gave that up.

AJ will more than likely lead the Braves in RBI’s. But, if Chipper stays healthy, I think he’ll be right there with him. I hope Francoeur can pull in a .270+ average. I’d like to see him hit much higher. With McCann in front of him Francoeur should get quite quite a few chances to knock in the run. It’s just going to be a good year.

GO BRAVES

By David O'Brien

February 7, 2007 11:49 AM | Link to this

Scribe, I don’t think Bobby plans to play Diaz much at first base, not very much at all. I think he’s throwing his name out there only to, in effect, say, “Hey, we’re not totally putting our eggs in one basket with Thorman. If the big kid fails, we’ve got Wilson and Diaz can play there, too.” I think that’s what he’s implying. I sure don’t expect to see Diaz get many innings this spring at first base.

By David O'Brien

February 7, 2007 11:51 AM | Link to this

Scribe, one more thing: Call my cynical, but I also always read into such statements the intention of teams to let other teams know this guy or that guy can play this other position, even though he hasn’t played it in any actual games.

That way if another team is interested in, say, a guy who can play LF and 1B, all of a sudden Diaz might be a little more on their radar if they get wind that the Braves might play him there or Cox considers him an option.

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 11:51 AM | Link to this

Lew,

Yes, but you know how I like to make sure to challenge conventions. Especially ideas that are held so dear like RBI are very telling…well, they’re not. And that’s something the MVP voters haven’t learned.

By double j

February 7, 2007 11:54 AM | Link to this

I think people doubt langerhans. He has power potential and he is about to hit his prime. I could easily say if he could get the starting nod 15 hrs is very attainable. now for the average i say around .270. Left field will be good, what he doenst do on offense he makes up with his defense.

By David O'Brien

February 7, 2007 11:55 AM | Link to this

OK, here’s a rare chance for some of you who’d like to attend every Braves home game and get paid to do it. I don’t know what happened to the previous Braves PA guy, but it looks like they’re scrambling to find a replacement. I just got this e-mail (and seriously, it’s worth considering if you’ve got a good voice and a flexible schedule):

The Atlanta Braves are seeking a new Public Address announcer for the 2007 season, and we are looking to you for help. If you know of anyone that may be interested in the position, here�s some info:

Candidates must have a commanding voice, a flexible schedule that would allow them to work every Braves home game, and a strong knowledge of baseball. PA experience is a plus, but not necessary.

If you know someone, please have them forward a voice demo recording via email to: bravesPA@turner.com or to:

Braves PA Announcer

Atlanta Braves

755 Hank Aaron Drive

Atlanta, GA 30315

The deadline to receive recordings will be Monday, March 12 and select applicants will be called back for live auditions.

By David O'Brien

February 7, 2007 11:59 AM | Link to this

TennPaul, I’m checking to make sure, but my understanding is that Pena is back to switch-hitting now and did this winter without difficulty. He stopped late last season after hurting a hand. But I’m checking to make sure.

By Kieran from Long Island

February 7, 2007 12:09 PM | Link to this

Andruw will definatly hold the lead with RBIs. I sure hope you’re right abotu Chipper but I’m not going to be that optimistic, especially since he’s open about the fact that he’d rather Hang out with his kids then hit the gym, (not that I blame him.) But I do Expect a bit more from McAnn, probably between 88-93 RBIs. I think Francour’s going to have a big break out season, put him up about 115. Final count…

Andruw 129, Frenchy 115, Mcann 91 Chipper 90, Kelly Johnson 8

By journalist jimmy smith

February 7, 2007 12:18 PM | Link to this

dob, is third person announcing okay? if so, jimmy smith is up for the job. jimmy smith sounds a little like marshall mann when jimmy smith gets going.

By ssiscribe

February 7, 2007 12:21 PM | Link to this

DOB: call me cynical, too, because that’s EXACTLY the first thing that crossed my mind when I saw Bobby’s quote mentioning Diaz at first base.

What it reads to me is, “Look, we got 1B pretty much taken care of with Thorman and Wilson, but you know Diaz can hit, and he can help you out at first base as well, so if you’re looking to bolster your bench with a good stick who’s versatile, call Mr. Schuerholz and let’s do bizness.”

Shaun: Going position-by-position, I think there is room for more offensive production in 2007 vs. 2006 at catcher, third base, left field and right field.

Catcher: McCann had a great year, but Pratt was horrible offensively. Pena is an upgrade, and Mac has a year more experience under his belt.

Third base: Again, the caveat of Chipper being healthy applies here. If he plays 140-150 games, the offensive numbers for the position definitely go up.

Left field: I really, really think you’re going to see Langerhans bounce back and hit like he did in 2005 (.267 vs. .241 last year, with more RBIs, higher slugging, OPS, etc., than 2006). Wilson also will add some pop out there. Of the four positions I mention, this is the most likely to see similar offensive production to last season.

Right field: I think you’ll see Frenchy improve on his .260-29-103 of a season ago (I really thought he’d hit 30 homers last season; my bad).

Sure, there will be a dropoff at first base and second base. But all in all, combined with the fact the Braves won’t have to score a boatload of runs to compensate for a leaky bullpen this year, I think the offense is going to be more than enough.

—30—

By KC

February 7, 2007 12:25 PM | Link to this

GRINCH: What in the WORLD is up with these “McCann-15 homers” predictions?????

Was I watching the same hitter you guys were last year??

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 12:32 PM | Link to this

Two reasons why Andrew is more likely than Chipper to lead the team in RBI:

1) Andrew is going to be hitting behind three good on-base guys (including Chipper who almost counts as two by himself) and Chipper is only hitting behind two pretty good on-base guys.

2) Chipper doesn’t have a Chipper hitting in front of him—a tremendous on-base guy.

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 12:43 PM | Link to this

ssiscribe,

McCann is going to get most of the PT. Pena is a likely upgrade over Pratt, but the playing time is not going to be enough to make that much of a difference unless McCann is injured. And McCann was so amazing, it’s hard to see him having a better season—but he will remain the NL’s best hitting C.

And I’m not concerned about Francouer’s triple crown numbers (they really aren’t all that important). I’m more concerned about how many outs he costs the Braves in ‘06. But that should improve.

But, we’re just nitpicking. I agree that the offense will be fine; top five or six in the league in runs. Slight drop, but not bad.

I expect the pitching to improve to the top six or seven.

The Braves had the run differential last season to go 85-77. I think they have they’ll have the run differential this season to win 88-90 games. I think a lot of things need to go right for them to win 90-94; sure it’s possible but not likely.

By The Grinch

February 7, 2007 12:47 PM | Link to this

I think we should try to get Dikembe Mutumbo for the new PA announcer. That way, “Now batting for the Atlanta Braves: No. 10, Chipper Jones!” would sound like: “NAAAMBEWAAA! BAATETAYYAH! CH-CH-CHOOOMALEEE-JOOONOOOOOOO!!!!” Of course, the vibrations from the unholy amount of bass in his voice might cause everyone’s beer to foam over. Looking back over my predictions, I may have set the bar to low on Francour RBI wise. He’ll probably be closer to 100.

By MBATL

February 7, 2007 12:48 PM | Link to this

Shaun, you’re right. The stars are aligned for AJ to have a monster year. Contract year, lost weight (apparently); if Chipper stays healthy… and remember, last year it took Bobby a while to move McCann up in the order.

Early in the year he was down at 7th a lot, (and then injured for a while) and Frenchy and Laroche were both struggling in the 5-hole in the 1st half. McCann had just 284 ab’s batting 5th last year; if he has 450 there in ‘07… look out.

I’m assuming Bobby will routinely bat McCann 5th next year. With a healthy Chipper in front of AJ and a healthy McCann behind him, he might drive in 150 if all goes right.

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 12:52 PM | Link to this

MBATL,

Chipper will likely be the Braves best hitter. But AJ will drive in the most runs.

By The Grinch

February 7, 2007 01:00 PM | Link to this

Oops; thanks for catching that, KC(pardon the pun). I meant to have him at 25. Later, all; got to get some work done.

By MBATL

February 7, 2007 01:14 PM | Link to this

Shaun, agreed. If Chipper can stay healthy, I’d look for his typical .300/25-30HR/105 RBI, with a huge obp/ops. I’ve said before that I think he’s one of the finest hitters in baseball.

I fear I started this whole Pena debate with a comment last night, about the starter who gets his bat instead of McCann’s each time out. That wasn’t meant as a slam at Pena, just a compliment to McCann.

By ncscoots

February 7, 2007 01:19 PM | Link to this

Wow. I think projecting McCann to have 90+ RBI in 130 games is just a wee bit optimistic. Hey, I love the kid, too, but he’s Baby Huey, not Superman. I think he’ll be very hard-pressed to repeat last year’s numbers, only because he had such a magical year, but I also don’t doubt that his offense will be solid. Shoot, are you kidding, .300/15/75 out of a catcher??? I’d take that from any catcher not named Bench in any year, and be danged happy about it.

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 01:25 PM | Link to this

ncscoots,

What’s more impressive, McCann will probably be around .300/.370/.520. I’ll take that no matter what he does in the HR-RBI departments because the OBP and SLG are where he is going to help the Braves create runs.

By rammerjammer

February 7, 2007 01:29 PM | Link to this

Here’s a sidebar to the “Predictions” story. Name the Braves who will be most likely to have disappointing seasons.

I’m not talking about the 25th guy on the roster; I mean guys we’re counting on to produce big but fall short.

Here’s my list:

SP-Hampton; too many health issues, next pitch could be his last.

RP-Wickman; no way he matches last season (1.04 ERA), and the combination of age and conditioning is not in his favor. Soriano is a close second; jury out after the Vlad liner.

POSITION PLAYER-Renteria; is he an “old” 31? Looked kinda tired after the A-S Break and might be one of those guys who descends rapidly.

Have at it!

By Mackey Sasser

February 7, 2007 01:32 PM | Link to this

ncscoots: don’t worry about getting 90+ RBI out of McCann if he plays that much. McCann’s 2006 had nothing to do with luck or magic. The kid is a phenominally mature hitter for his age and has the best at-bats on the team in terms of working the count and getting HIS pitch to hit. Just look at Francouer to see what a 2nd year MLB guy is supposed to look like at the plate - clueless. As Shaun has so accurately pointed out, RBI isn’t the most reliable or accurate way to evaluate hitters so maybe you and I debating 90+ RBI is kind of pointless. However, I will almost guarantee you that McMAN will top .300/15/75 across the board if he gets 130 starts behind the plate. Seriously. He’s that good.

By beachcomber

February 7, 2007 01:48 PM | Link to this

i guess i’m one of the few people on the blog old enough to have actually seen (on tv) the ‘57 series - talk about total dominance, lew burdette was that. without him, we have two total ws victories not three. that was a magical year with schoendienst coming over to play second and hurricane hazle, but lew burdette got us over that last mountain. he’ll be missed.

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 01:51 PM | Link to this

rammerjammer,

I don’t really see any key players due for a big decline. A few may drop off some, but barring injuries, nothing major.

I suppose Chipper is a candidate at his age, but his production has more to do with instincts, strikezone judgment and power as opposed to anything that may decline quickly with age, so I believe he’ll be his normal .300/.400/.500 self.

I don’t know if I would consider Hampton not coming through as a disappointment at this point. Anything the Braves get would be gravy, as far as I’m concerned.

By TennesseePaul

February 7, 2007 01:52 PM | Link to this

Payne: There could be one caveat in that AJ prediction… If Chipper does stay healthy he has proven the ability to hit 30-40 homers; hitting for high average and power. It is possible that Chipper clears all the bases before AJ gets up there. Sort of an RBI Pac-Man if you will. But I still think AJ will top him.

MVP voters picked Chipper as the MVP in 1999. He had 110 RBIs. That was 17th in the league. 37 behind the leader. Those darn MVP voters just can’t get past the RBI can they? They fall in line every year in a predictable order… Maybe it was the Homers, they love the Homerun as well. Chipper did have 45 that year. He was third in the rankings, 20 behind the leader, who also happened to have 147 RBIs. Maybe it was SLG… he did slug .633 that year, he was third in that catagory, behind the RBI and HR leader. He didn’t win it by leading the league in AVG either. Or OBP… those predictable MVP voters with their love affair with the RBI…

By ernesto

February 7, 2007 01:56 PM | Link to this

Mackey Sasser. Ha! Did that guy ever work out his “throwing it back to the pitcher” phobia? that was some serious oddness.

By MBATL

February 7, 2007 01:59 PM | Link to this

rammerjammer, I think it’s a fair question; it’s really easy to assume that everybody will play to their best, but in the real world, not likely.

I posted yesterday that there is no logic in assuming a 1.04 era for Wickman. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him with an era of 3.25 and a 75% save pct. But, we do have some backup there if he struggles more than that.

I worry that Soriano, Gonzo, Boyer and Villarreal have all had arm/shoulder problems. We’ll be lucky if none of them have problems in ‘07.

And who really knows on Hampton? I think it’s reasonable to be optimistic, given the time frame and his competitive demeanor, but it’s uncharted territory for him.

And I agree on Edgar; I wouldn’t be surprised to see him come in at .270 or so - but he won’t hurt us, I don’t think. He’ll play a solid (if not great) SS, and will handle the bat well. (I’m not predicting that kind of dropoff, but wouldn’t be surprised).

Thorman might struggle early, but I think he’s eventually every bit the hitter LaRoche was; and that KJ will be fine.

My biggest concern is that Francoeur “make less outs”, as Shaun would put it. He needs to boost his obp to at least the low .300s (a pretty modest goal, but we need to see it).

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 02:00 PM | Link to this

Mackey Sasser,

Yeah, I think the RBI discussion is, I don’t want to say pointless, but kind of strange. RBI are to hitters what W-L is to pitchers—they don’t tell us too much in themselves about how much a player contributed to his team winning.

If Smoltz K’s around 200 with around 50 BB and around 20 HR in 200 innings again, that will be plenty to help the Braves win. If McCann hits close to .300/.370/.520, he’ll be doing plenty to help the Braves win. Their W-L and RBI totals tell us more about the team than they do about how much these players help the team win.

By KC

February 7, 2007 02:06 PM | Link to this

Mackey Sasser: (Boy… I haven’t heard that name in a while)

I agree with you. McCann is a remarkable hitter. And after the power display he put on in the second half of the season, I cannot begin to understand why people here are predicting 15-HR / 75-RBI. That’s way underselling the kind of hitter he is!

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 02:18 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

MVP voters love RBI guys on winning teams over more important numbers like OBP and SLG. (A lot of times it doesn’t matter because the greatest hitters are going to be the ones with the most RBI because of how often they are in the lineup, where they hit and power.)

I guess you’re concluding that RBI didn’t play a role in Chipper winning the ‘99 MVP. Though he didn’t lead the league, I can’t imagine Chipper winning it if he didn’t have 100 RBI that year. He won it because of his triple crown stats (including RBI) and because of some key hits against the Mets the final month or two of the season. (He should have won it for his .319/.441/.633 season while playing half his games in a pitcher’s park, but I’m just glad the most deserving player won it that year.)

Look at the results and you’ll see that RBI play a much bigger role than stats that a better measures of value like OBP and SLG. Do you really believe Ryan Howard was more valuable than Albert Pujols? Or that Morneau was more valuable than Jeter (or a lot of other hitters in the AL including one of his own teammates)?

By Lew

February 7, 2007 02:46 PM | Link to this

Shaun-I’m not so sure I would object to either Howard OR Pujols being my first baseman. I think it’s very close to a six of one half dozen of the other situation. Howard hits for more power and still hits for average-maybe a few points lower than Pujols average, but, Dude, it’s pretty much a wash as far as I’m concerned.

By TennesseePaul

February 7, 2007 02:53 PM | Link to this

Ryan Howard lifted his team up after Abrue was traded. He lifted his team to a better winning percentage than the WS champions. He did so in his second season. He also put up triple crown caliber numbers on top of being the biggest reason that team mounted a run down the stretch. I think he deserved to win. I think Pujols did a fabulous job at making it ridiculously close.

I think voters voted for Chipper over Big Mac because Chipper meant so much to the team, despite the fact that Mac hit .270+ AVG with .650+ SLG, 65 HR, and 147 RBIs the same year. Mac blew every one away in almost all offensive categories. He was larger than life that year. But Chipper was more valuable to his team and he won despite falling short in every offensive category, almost entirely to Mac.
I think voters take more than RBI into question when they vote. If it were only an RBI award, Big Mac should have won in 1999.

But is it completely irrelevant that a guy leads the league in RBI? I would think that it is a positive mark for the player as opposed to a mark against him. Does the RBI show any level of help for the Team in your mind? Suppose the team gets on like mad in front of a guy and he chokes the whole season in those situations. He has a high OBP, great AVG, good SLG, but chokes when it mattered most to the team. Say, he hit .250 in the “clutch” situations for that season. A second guy comes along and puts up similar numbers but doesn’t choke in the clutch. The second guy has more RBIs, but lower everything else than the first guy (save clutch numbers), would you not vote for the second guy? He meant more to his team. He came through when it mattered and had the “trophy” (RBI) to prove it. I’m not saying RBI’s are the end all be all of judging a hitter, but it seems to me they do reflect his value to a team and at the least they shouldn’t be held against the guy.

By DonCoburleone

February 7, 2007 02:56 PM | Link to this

“Shaun-I’m not so sure I would object to either Howard OR Pujols being my first baseman. I think it’s very close to a six of one half dozen of the other situation. Howard hits for more power and still hits for average-maybe a few points lower than Pujols average, but, Dude, it’s pretty much a wash as far as I’m concerned.”

Woa woa, I think we need to see Howard repeat (or at least come close to repeating) his 2006 season in 2007 before we consider him and Pujols on the same level…

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 03:05 PM | Link to this

Lew,

Howard is awesome; I’d love to have him also. But I’ll take Pujols over him any day and I would have taken Pujols over him in 2006. Pujols finished 2nd in OBP, 1st in SLG, 3rd in AVG while playing in a park that favors hitters. And he’s a better defensively than Howard.

I’m not sure Howard is any more powerful. Pujols hit only 9 fewer homers in a much tougher park for hitters half the time and Pujols had a higher slugging percentage. And Pujols was percentage points behind him in isolated power while playing in the tougher park.

By ncscoots

February 7, 2007 03:08 PM | Link to this

Jeez, fellas, I wasn’t predicting McCann’s numbers in any way, shape, or form. I was saying that .300/15/75 is good for ANY catcher, and if BC does that, we should all be happy. However, whether the guy is the next incarnation of Bill Dickey is still open to question, don’t you think? He’s the goods, no doubt, but let’s not anoint the guy, huh?

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 03:13 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

Oh, I don’t think RBI should be held against a guy at all. I just view RBI a lot like wins for a pitcher.

And I don’t think RBI is the only thing voters look at but I think it plays a much bigger role than it should.

And I suppose it’s theoretically possible for a guy to have a great AVG, OBP and SLG in the middle of a lineup but completely choke and have a low RBI total but it would be very difficult. If a guy avoids outs at a good rate, has a high SLG, hits in the middle of the lineup, he’s going to drive in runs—it’s virtually impossible for him not to.

Another thing to consider is driving in runs is only one part of helping the team win. Avoiding outs and gaining bases is much more valuable.

By Matthew

February 7, 2007 03:30 PM | Link to this

Reasons for optimism?

Jason Shiell: left for KC Chris Reitsma: left for SEA Wayne Franklin: left for KC Danys Baez: left for BAL Travis Smith: left for LAD John Thomson: left for Toronto Horacio Ramirez: left for SEA

Replaced by:

Bob Wickman: re-signed Mike Gonzales: from PIT Rafael Soriano: from SEA Tanyon Sturtze: from NYY Mike Hampton: from injury Blaine Boyer: from injury Tyler Yates, Macay McBride, Chad Paronto: a year’s experience will make a huge difference Oscar Villareal: good experience in Mexico

When we consider the difference a year makes, I am pumped up about the 2007 Braves. My only concern is the depth of the starting rotation. Who will fill the 5th spot? Who can step in if Smoltx or Hampton is hurt, or if Davies is ineffective?

Overall, I am excited, but we need pretty good years from Smoltz, Hampton, Hudson, and James, all of whom have potential question marks. Smoltz-age, Hudson-inconsistency, Hampton-injury recovery, James-sophomore slump. Not saying these WILL happen, but they are possibilities. Nice to know we have a lights out bullpen who can preserve the wins orchestrated by our starters.

Go Braves!

By Lew

February 7, 2007 03:38 PM | Link to this

Don-Did you miss the fact that Howard won the Rookie of The Year Award his first season as well as the MVP in his second year? I dare say the guy is the real deal-a call I made 4 years ago in Clearwater after watching him take batting practice at Spring Training while he was in AA. If nothing else, he’s cheaper than Pujols at the moment and Pujols has what, three years on him? It’s not like he’s got a 10 year track record behind him, either. Sorry, Dude, I’d take Howard in a heartbeat and feel like we got one of the best.

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 03:39 PM | Link to this

Blog has reached the breaking point!

By Mackey Sasser

February 7, 2007 03:52 PM | Link to this

Tennessee Paul: nobody is saying RBI should be held against a player, but the point is that RBI (in and of itself) is not reflective of a player’s worth as a hitter the way OBP and SLG are. To turn your choke or not choke example on its head - what if two players had the same OBP and SLG but one hit fourth and the other eighth? Think the one hitting fourth, with three of the team’s best hitters ahead of him would have a few more RBI than the guy hitting eighth? Sure he would. And is he a better hitter because of that? No.

By Garth Brooks

February 7, 2007 04:01 PM | Link to this

What???? Ain’t nobody gonna wish me happy birthday?? After the tough life I’ve lived I can’t even get the respect that a real cowboy like me should. I’ve had such a hard row to hoe, what with all the Ropin’ the Wind and Pina Coladas I’ve been through. You know,…. real roughneck country stuff. Yeah, it’s a tough life being a hardcore country music star: wild women, hard liquor, bar fights, and what-not. Yes sir, I’m lucky to still be alive. This world ain’t cut out to hold too many old outlaws like me….. Bartender!!! How ‘bout another Pina Colada for the ole birthday boy here!?!

By Gil

February 7, 2007 04:02 PM | Link to this

Okay Stienbrenner, stop with the player envy and come back to earth. Pujols and Howard were out there like every other kid. Just someone else signed them first. But if I had to pick one, it would be Albert. Unless he gets caught robbing a bank he is a sure bet for the HOF. Howard still has a lot to prove as far as longtivity.

Chipper’s MVP season came when he just crushed the Mets every at bat it seemed that fall. I still don’t know why they pitched to him? Not that I minded. He just played it up on the “big stage”.

By rammerjammer

February 7, 2007 04:03 PM | Link to this

Shaun,

Always appreciate your feedback. My point on Hampton was that, even if WE think it’s gravy to get anything out of him, the Braves are counting on him to come through and effectively take his regular turn in the rotation. If he falters, that’s a problem. Not insurmountable, but a problem.

By james

February 7, 2007 04:17 PM | Link to this

DOB, do you know when the braves are going to release an updated version of non-roster invitees to spring training and who might be on it?

By TennesseePaul

February 7, 2007 04:23 PM | Link to this

The encouraging news for Hawpe — and every Rockies slugger — is that the team plans to kick the humidor experiment to the curb in 2007

So the Rockies are dumping the humidor this season? That’s an odd thing to do after trading their best pitcher.

By LT

February 7, 2007 04:26 PM | Link to this

Off subject to the music gallery,

I just bought the Lily Allen album after seeing her on SNL this weekend. Not only is she an extremely hot, saucy woman, I think it’s an awesome pop album- can’t stop listening to it.

No offense to anyone living an alternative lifestyle, but does this make me gay?

By David O'Brien

February 7, 2007 04:34 PM | Link to this

Here’s the rundown on Brayan Pena and the switch-hitting situation:

Came out of last spring training batting only from right side, went back to switch-hitting after being advised by Braves that his value would be higher as a switch-hitter, better for him and the team.

Hit on right wrist by a pitch in August, couldn’t roll hands over, so went back to batting right-handed.

Now he’s able to hit from both sides, but apparently hasn’t decided which he’ll do. Braves can only advise a player, not force him to hit one way or the other. He’s natural right-handed hitter.

And that’s that. It’s not a huge deal only because Bobby isn’t going to use him to platoon anyway. I asked Bobby about the lefty-right thing and that will not play into McCann’s situation this year, he’s going to hit against both.

Pena will probably get one of the five starters, way Braves have done it most years.

By Thrillhouse44

February 7, 2007 04:43 PM | Link to this

DOB, Do PA Announcers get free beer during games? Just curious…

By ssiscribe

February 7, 2007 04:50 PM | Link to this

No postings in two hours … did the blog die again?

Agree with the thoughts about Howard. Need to see him do it a couple more seasons before he can stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Fat Albert. Saw Pujols put on the second-most impressive display of batting practice in my life last May down in Miami at that garbage dump the Marlins play in.

Most impressive, by the way, was Sammy Sosa during BP before the home-run derby at Turner Field during All-Star festivities in 2000. Nearly got hit by one of his blasts, and I was sitting way the heck up in the terrace level in left field (no lie: smudged the paper sitting next to me, where the ball hit, and I never saw it until it hit beside me … sounded like a bomb going off). He hit a couple up near the scoreboard in dead center during BP.

—30—

By DonCoburleone

February 7, 2007 05:06 PM | Link to this

Blog’s messed up again…

By Head Coach

February 7, 2007 05:11 PM | Link to this

I’m with KC on this one. Baby Huey (McCann) is the best hitter on the team. Kudo’s to Chipper but , McCann is just flat out scary. McCann is light years ahead of guys his age , Daddy McCann turned this kid into a hitting machine. McCann’s set up at the plate is textbook. He squares up with the plate , looks straight out at the pitcher with both eyes centered on the ball , which is unlike most other major league hitter’s. McCann’s focus and reaction time is excellent. He never moves his head off the ball and follows it with his eyes all the way into the catchers mitt. He is disciplined , focused and considering he is only 23 , he will get stronger and his power numbers will go up. The only reason I put McCann ahead of Chipper is that I don’t think Chipper can stay healthy enough to get the same amount of at bats.

By DonCoburleone

February 7, 2007 05:29 PM | Link to this

Wow, well since it doesn’t matter what I say cuz nobody will see it anyway… F***! Haha, that felt good…

By TennesseePaul

February 7, 2007 05:35 PM | Link to this

Looks like the blog died… It’s been posting the same thing since noon my time. I have no way of knowing Payne’s retort. I have a strong belief that he has retorted quite a bit…. RBIs RULE!

GO BRAVES

By Rosalynn

February 7, 2007 05:57 PM | Link to this

I would like to applah foah the announah’s job that is coming open. I have always wanted to be an announcah. Imagine when Chippa Jones comes to the plate and I say something like, “Numba Ten, Thuhd Baseman, Chippa Jones”. I think I am the right announcah foah the job. Please don’t tell Jimma anahthing about this until I have won the job. Jimma is still a little upset losing his job back in 1980. Should I become the Braves’ announcah I will leave a few tickets at will-call foah my blogga buddies.

By Laurance Maney

February 7, 2007 05:58 PM | Link to this

Rerading AJ’s weight: remember guys, particularly Fed Up, that Andruw showed up at 19 at about 180 like a cross between Willie Mays and Jackie Robinson, both of whom I saw play as a kid. One of his favorite tricks then was stretching singles into doubles on his own initiative, a Robinson specialty. He ran hard and played harder (anyone recall the time he dropped a bunt down the first base line and ran over a pitcher who threw at his head?)and was a natural two-hole hitter (look at his stats for the only year he hit there). Bobby, Mr 3 Run Homer, then senselessly relegated AJ mostly to the bottom third of the order to hit .260 and pop 30+ homers a year until they had no one else to hit behind the great Chipper two years ago. You guys down there never knew what you had in this kid but while waiting for him to be a has-been at 33 rummage around the stats and find anyone in the history of the game whose put up the numbers he has batting mostly 7th or 6th in the order with no one protecting him. And please stop thinking Roco Baldelli could ever replace him.

By David O'Brien

February 7, 2007 06:10 PM | Link to this

Shaun, I don’t believe ANYONE was more valuable to their team than Ryan Howard was to the Phillies. Because simply put, he almost singlehandedly kept them in the wild-card race until the end. He was flat-out amazing in the second half of the season, even when teams had every reason to be careful with him and pitch around him in crucial situations. He rarely missed a mistake pitch.

It’s splitting hairs to say he’s more valuable than Pujols was to the Cardinals, just so many different ways to support either side of the opinion.

After the All-Star break, Howard hit .355 with 30 homers, 78 RBIs, 77 walks and a Ruthian 1.260 OPS in 75 games for a team that went 45-30.

After the break, Pujols hit .344 with 20 homers, 61 RBIs, 40 walks and a 1.069 OPS in 73 games for a team that went 34-39.

I will add that even though it has nothing to do with MVP vote (that’s conducted before postseason), the Cardinals won the World Series without a big contribution from Pujols, who hit .288 with three homers, six RBIs, 13 walks and 10 strikeouts in 16 postseason games, including .200 (3-for-15) with one homer and two RBIs in the five-game World Series.

He was 2-for-12 with three runs and no RBIs in the last four games of the Series, and the Cards won three of the four.

By David O'Brien

February 7, 2007 06:13 PM | Link to this

Rosalynn for PA job. Start the campaign now. It’d be tremendous.

By The Grinch

February 7, 2007 06:44 PM | Link to this

LT, re: you 4:26 post. Yes, I’m afraid it DOES make you gay. Not that there’s anything wrong with that…:-)

Lawrence Maney, now that’s the way to go aginst the blog grain! Good post. Gotta stir the %$#& every now and then.

By DonCoburleone

February 7, 2007 06:49 PM | Link to this

“Don-Did you miss the fact that Howard won the Rookie of The Year Award his first season as well as the MVP in his second year? I dare say the guy is the real deal-a call I made 4 years ago in Clearwater after watching him take batting practice at Spring Training while he was in AA. If nothing else, he’s cheaper than Pujols at the moment and Pujols has what, three years on him? It’s not like he’s got a 10 year track record behind him, either. Sorry, Dude, I’d take Howard in a heartbeat and feel like we got one of the best.”

Yeah but did you know (and I bet you didn’t) that Pujols is actually 2 months younger than Ryan Howard? And Pujols won ROY too, and since coming into the league in 2001 at the age of 21, Pujols hasn’t finised any lower than 4TH! in the MVP voting, including winning it in 2005. And had it not been for Bonds, Pujols would already have 3 or 4 MVP’s. Pujols has averaged (including his rookie season)over the past 6 years a .332BA; 42HR’s; 126RBI; and .629 slugging! Oh, and how about this little bit of information: In 3,489 career AB’s for Albert Pujols, he has struck out only 394 times (1 s.o. every 8.9AB’s). In 932 career AB’s Ryan Howard has struck out 294! times (1 every 3.2AB’s!)… Plus Albert is better on defense… Pujols is without question not only the best first baseman in the game but the best player period….

By DonCoburleone

February 7, 2007 06:56 PM | Link to this

“I will add that even though it has nothing to do with MVP vote (that’s conducted before postseason), the Cardinals won the World Series without a big contribution from Pujols, who hit .288 with three homers, six RBIs, 13 walks and 10 strikeouts in 16 postseason games, including .200 (3-for-15) with one homer and two RBIs in the five-game World Series.”

Yeah, but DOB you know as well as I do it was St. Louis’ pitching that won the WS for them… It is unfair to criticize Pujols for a “bad” postseason when Howard didn’t even play 1 game in the postseason. He could have went 0 for 30 for all we know. And besides, is their a player on the Cardinals who had better offensive numbers in the playoffs than that?

By Stinky

February 7, 2007 07:01 PM | Link to this

Grinch, anyone who uses the phrase “an awesome pop album”, well, they just might be gay.

By Tonight on TBS

February 7, 2007 07:03 PM | Link to this

Perry Mason: The Case of the Poisoned Pen (1990)

Perry probes the poor performance of the Braves promising ‘pen after the players contract ptomaine poisoning in a plot perpetrated by a paranoid pastry chef. Oh the perfidy! Raymond Burr plays the parts of Perry and portly pitchers Paronto and Wickman.

By Jeff K.

February 7, 2007 07:05 PM | Link to this

The Best Player in Baseball is Barry Bonds. Period.

By DonCoburleone

February 7, 2007 07:08 PM | Link to this

And plus DOB, Jeff Weaver had a 2.77ERA and 14 strikeouts in 13 World Series innings, so does that mean he is a better pitcher than Pujols is a hitter?

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 7, 2007 07:18 PM | Link to this

Earlier today I asked Maury Brown of Baseball Prospectus if he thought the Braves had a chance at trading for Melkey Cabrera or Rocco Baldelli. He said they could but he doubted they would. I also asked him if he thought the Braves could win the NL East and he said that he thought they could. He pointed out that the Mets are not as strong as last season and their rotation definitely has problems. Now, I also read on cnnsi.com today that they pick the Mets to win the NL East. They did their pre-spring training previews and while they did give the Braves some kudos, they basically said the Mets were the team to beat and acted as if their rotation was just fine. They gave the Phillies some love but it was all about the Mets. Both cnnsi and Maury Brown said the Marlins overachieved last year and don’t expect them to be as competitive this season.

By DonCoburleone

February 7, 2007 07:19 PM | Link to this

Jeff K. I am going to go ahead and assume you are joking…

By David O'Brien

February 7, 2007 07:31 PM | Link to this

DonC, what part of “though it has nothing to do with MVP vote (that’s conducted before postseason), the Cardinals won the World Series without a big contribution from Pujols,” do you not understand?

Weaver has absolutely nothing to do with the Howard-Pujols debate. Nothing. Zero.

I was merely adding a point, after making a long comparison about second-half stats of Howard and Pujols _ what do you want to pick apart about that comparison, by the way? _ that the Cardinals won the World Series without much of an impact from Pujols, who really didn’t do a whole lot the entire postseason. That’s all. End of story. Your Weaver point was irrelvent to the Howard-Pujols MVP debate.

You also asked, “And besides, is their a player on the Cardinals who had better offensive numbers in the playoffs than that?”

For the postseason, no Cardinals lit it up offensively for all three series really. But Edmonds had 10 RBIs and a .786 OPS in 16 games, including four RBIs in the first three games of the World Series.

Eckstein went 8-for-13 with three doubles and four RBIs in the final three games of the World Series, all won by the Cards.

By Tonight on TBS

February 7, 2007 07:34 PM | Link to this

Mr. METamorphosis (1997)

Adaption of Kafka’s famous story in which Gregor Samsa (Pedro Martinez) is a hall-of-fame quality pitcher until he awakens one morning with a freakishly large baseball for a head thereby becoming a nuisance to his team.

By David O'Brien

February 7, 2007 07:37 PM | Link to this

James, I put the full non-roster invitee list on the last blog, in one of my posts on Friday morning. Go back and look for it there. Braves haven’t released it yet, but I put the whole thing there.

By DonCoburleone

February 7, 2007 07:40 PM | Link to this

Blown Cy? “One has to wonder if the Braves bullpen cost John Smoltz a Cy Young last year. He finished with 16 wins but had six late leads blown. Arizona’s Brandon Webb won the Cy Young with 16 wins and a 3.10 ERA. Webb pitched 235 innings and struck out 178 while Smoltz threw 232 innings and struck out 211. You have to think that if the Braves would have closed out four of the six leads they had with Smoltz and he had finished with 20 wins, he would have won his second Cy Young.” - SI.COM

See, everybody knows it… Reitsma, Sosa, YOU SUCK!

By David O'Brien

February 7, 2007 07:43 PM | Link to this

Actually, so that you won’t have to look for it, here’s the ever-popular non-roster invitee list, unless Braves make more changes before announcing it:

Pitchers: Kevin Barry, Buddy Carlyle, Steve Colyer, Matt Harrison.

Catchers: Iker Franco, Carlos Mendez, Corky Miller, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Clint Sammons.

Infielders: Yunel Escobar, Willie Harris, Brent Lillibridge.

Outfielder: Doug Clark.

By james

February 7, 2007 07:45 PM | Link to this

thank you

By DonCoburleone

February 7, 2007 07:52 PM | Link to this

DOB the debate is who you would rather have on your team right now, not who should have won the MVP last year… And right now, or next year or the year after, I’d rather have Albert Pujols over Ryan Howard… Do you disagree with that?

By The Grinch

February 7, 2007 07:55 PM | Link to this

Ouch. That was harsh.

By Tonight on TBS

February 7, 2007 08:00 PM | Link to this

* The Importance of Being Stinky (2002)*

Two gentlemen, one nice and one nasty, use the same pseudonym (“Stinky”) on the sly, which is fine until they both run afoul of pretend journalist “jimmy smith” which leads to a comedy of mistaken identities and the possibility of posts being removed from the blog. Based on true events.

By TennesseePaul

February 7, 2007 08:11 PM | Link to this

Interesting way to attempt to turn my example upside down… How many number 8 hitters have won an MVP to begin with? I’m not sure there are any… not counting pitchers, they obviously present the majority of their value on the otherside of the ball. So I don’t think it’s a solid point and it still misses the majority of what I was saying.
And, I did agree, in that post, that RBI’s are not the best way to judge hitter over all.
But I do think the MVP award takes into account more than just triple crown numbers. I think it also looks at various splits, defense, team leader ship and all sorts of things. Also, I’m not sure it would be fair to argue that the historical MVP votings are biased looked at triple crown stats when the Sabermetric analysis of players has only been in popular use for the last 20 or so years. Baseball changes with the times… albeit much more slowly even in the digital age.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 7, 2007 08:23 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul, I have to disagree with you some. I think the MVP is mostly a stats award. I don’t it really is based upon who is the most valuable player. If that were the case, Andruw would have won it in 2005. As much as I hate to say it, Jeter should have won last year even though I will agree that Morneau was very important to that Twins team.

By KC

February 7, 2007 08:28 PM | Link to this

DOB: As more of these season previews come out, I’m surprised to find that the Braves are in fact being largely overlooked. Wouldn’t you agree that this team is a bit underrated by the national media at the moment?

I mean, looking at it on paper (and that’s the only context in which we can talk about any team right now), the Braves have one of the top 5 rotations in the league… one of the top 5 offenses in the NL, and the best bullpen in the league. So why aren’t they being taken more seriously? I don’t get it.

By MBATL

February 7, 2007 08:46 PM | Link to this

KC, on paper our team looks pretty weak.

Smoltz is Smoltz… ‘nuff said. Hudson struggled last year, and showed a lack of velocity…not a good sign; Hampton is a complete unknown quantity (today’s report on his first session was not especially encouraging, to me, but it’s one day…); James is good but has to prove himself to be considered a top of the line starter, and Davies pretty much stunk last year.

Then people see us starting a rookie at 1B; an outfielder at 2B, and a couple of AAAA types in LF. And Chipper Jones not having played 140 games since 2003.

I have much more faith in these guys than that (and I know you do too), but I don’t think people who don’t live and breath Braves baseball feel quite the same. So, we’re underdogs… that’s okay with me.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 7, 2007 08:53 PM | Link to this

KC, it is simple. The national media has its favorites and they usually favor “big” city market teams aka White Sox, Cubs, Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Angels, and Dodgers. Of course, the Yankees and Mets will always get the benefit of the doubt because they are in New York.

Truthfully, on paper the Phillies are the best team in the NL East and the Braves are as good if not better than the Mets. But, I guarantee that 95% of the media will pick the Mets to win the east. Even in the AL East the Yankees get favored over the Red Sox. On paper the Red Sox are clearly the better team because they have much deeper pitching and arguably the best rotation in baseball. However, I guarantee that 95% of the media will pick the Yankees.

Its just like if you ask the national media people or read the columns about who is the best catcher in the NL, most of them will say that LoDuca is the best catcher and McCann and Russell Martin are the best “young” catchers. Well, I think after last season it is quite clear that both Martin and McCann are better than LoDuca. Look at how everyone drools over David Wright. Yes, Wright is a good player. However Miguel Cabrera, Chipper Jones, and Aramis Ramirez are as good as Wright if not better when defense and offense are taken into consideration.

Heck, look at how people are salivating over Moises Alou. I like Alou as much as anyone but the man is 41 years old and spends more time on the DL than Lindsay Lohan spends in rehab centers. For the love of God, there are people who say that Shawn Green is light years better than Francoeur. Never mind Francoeur had better overall numbers. Just a minor technicality.

By ernesto

February 7, 2007 08:54 PM | Link to this

Anyone seriously unhappy with the DirectTV exclusive screwing baseball is giving to its no DirecTv having fans this is the guy to tell your feelings to.

Tim Brosnan Executive Vice President, Business tbrosnan@mlb.com and

The Office of the Commissioner of Baseball Allan H. (Bud) Selig, Commissioner 245 Park Avenue, 31st Floor New York, NY 10167 Phone: (212) 931-7800

Let ‘er rip.

By journalist jimmy smith

February 7, 2007 09:06 PM | Link to this

NY Daily News: SANTO DOMINGO, Dominican Republic - His favorite salsa music pumping from the stereo speakers, Pedro Martinez climbs on a stationary bicycle in the private gym in the home of his brother (and former major league pitcher) Ramon and begins pedaling. The three-time Cy Young winner and Mets ace has a four to five-hour afternoon workout ahead of him on this Thursday, a regimen he has been steadfastly following every weekday over the last three and a half months.

pedro appears to be making himself ready for the season. probably gonna finish with a couple big macs and fries, right?

By MBATL

February 7, 2007 09:18 PM | Link to this

Robert JIB, I really don’t agree that ‘media bias’ is the reason we’re not picked higher (well, it may play a part, of course). We were generally picked to win the division last year… and the Braves’ “brand” is pretty respected in baseball circles.

I outlined above why I don’t think we’re picked, in terms of personnel … add to that the fact that we only won 79 games last year… and it’s no big surprise to me. I don’t think media bias has too much to do with it.

Plus, in reading some of the “analysis”, like the SI article that someone referenced earlier, it’s quite clear that a lot of these folk just don’t do their homework… they had Prado at 2B, and Chipper on a “regimented program” for the offseason. So, how seriously are we gonna take ‘em?

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 09:18 PM | Link to this

O’Brien,

I’m not sure how to approach the argument that Howard was more valuable to his team than Pujols. It’s kindof opening a can of worms, but here goes: I define value as contributing to wins. I think Pujols’s ability to avoid outs better and probably hit for more power (consider Pujols’ SLG in a pitcher’s park) and play better defense than Howard was worth more wins. If the Cardinals did not take advantage, how do you blame Pujols? The MVP is an individual award and it depends on how you define value as to who you think should win it. I define value as whoever contributes more in their teams winning—not whoever contributes to winning most but they have to have a decent supporting cast.

I’m not trying to downplay Howard’s season at all. Absolutely nothing wrong with it. I just think Pujols was worth more in contributing to wins. I don’t think it’s fair (as the voters often do) to punish a guy because his supporting cast isn’t as good as another guys.

I’m also a supporter of the best pitcher in the league winning the Cy Young—not the best pitcher with over 17 or 18 wins.

Again, how do you punish a pitcher who does everything better than any other pitcher but doesn’t win as many games because he’s on a bad team or his bullpen blows games? The Cy Young is an individual award.

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 09:21 PM | Link to this

O’Brien,

You also bring up OPS. But as I’ve mentioned before, OPS assumes SLG is equal to OBP. OBP/avoiding outs is more important to creating runs for an offense than SLG.

By David O'Brien

February 7, 2007 09:26 PM | Link to this

DonC, that’s a very tough question _ awful hard to pick anyone over Pujols to start a team with, at least right now. But I wouldn’t go so far as to say I’d choose him over Howard a year from now, or the year after. I mean, we just have no idea what’s going to happen. What if Howard somehow continues to get better, what if he hits 60 homers and drives in 140 and the Phils win the pennant? Not saying it’s likely, just saying I wouldn’t be so bold as to say who I’d pick a year from now or two years from now. But yes, for now it’d have to be Pujols, but not by a huge margin, at least for me.

KC, I’m not surprised by the early picks and predictions, since I’ve seen the Braves anywhere from second to fourth in the East, but mostly third and fourth. I mean, on paper, how do you pick against the Mets if you’re an outside, impartial observer?

To say the “national media” plays favorites with this stuff is silly. For years and years the Braves have been picked more often than not to win the division by the majority of folks, and Oakland and Minnesota always get proper respect in these preseason things.

By David O'Brien

February 7, 2007 09:30 PM | Link to this

Shaun, that’s your opinion. I don’t agree.

Don’t try to change my mind, because I’m not going to try to change yours.

I’ll take OPS and will continue to use it. Use whatever you want. No problem. But again, no need for you to cite some Baseball Prospect breakdown or win-share report to try to persuade me otherwise. Peace.

By Stinky

February 7, 2007 09:30 PM | Link to this

BOO!!!

By Shaun

February 7, 2007 09:32 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

You bring up an interesting point—with the advent of sabermetrics and advanced analysis of baseball players, we know more now. Awards voters had to rely on things like subjective analysis from scouts and basic stats like AVG, HR, RBI, R.

Now we know a lot more about what contributes to run scoring and run prevention and in turn wins.

I think the point some of us are trying to make is that a lot of the voters still don’t realize what contributes to run scoring and prevention and in turn wins. They rely on numbers like HR and RBI and wins or reputation (or maybe other things, but you get the picture) over the evidence that player x actually did the things that helped his team score/prevent runs more than players y and z.

I think the voters meant well, but I don’t think they realized that Pujols’s abilities in 2006 (evident by a better AVG/OBP/SLG and defense) contributed more to run scoring and run prevention than Howard’s.

By David O'Brien

February 7, 2007 09:34 PM | Link to this

Shaun, forget what I said about the postseason. Nevermind the supporting casts. Here’s why I think Howard had a slight edge in “value” to his team over Pujols:

After the break, Howard hit .355 with 30 homers, 78 RBIs, 77 walks and a 1.260 OPS in 75 games for a team that went 45-30.

After the break, Pujols hit .344 with 20 homers, 61 RBIs, 40 walks and a 1.069 OPS in 73 games for a team that went 34-39.

Sorry, but that does it for me.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 7, 2007 10:08 PM | Link to this

Well, I think the Braves were usually picked because the rest of the East stunk most of the time. That is not saying at all that the Braves had it easy winning the divison all of those times but except a year here and there there was never a true contender to the throne. And lets be honest. The NL East is as deep as I have ever seen it. Four of the five teams are capable of 85 wins or more.

DOB, I don’t have a problem with Mets being picked first but I don’t see how they are an overwhelming pick. I think it can be easily argued their starting rotation is only the fourth best in the division. It could be argued that the Phillies have a better offense and the Braves certainly have the capability to have a better one. And while the Mets had the best bullpen in baseball this side of the Padres, the Braves pen is now definitely as good, if not better.

Honestly, I think on paper the Phillies are the best team in the division. I don’t usually get into the whole “national media bias” thing but I think it has some merit. I sat and watched time after time Brian McCann get totally dissed. The guys on ESPN, whom all I like, continuously sang the praises of Paul LoDuca first and Russell Martin second. McCann would be like, “Oh, yeah. That McCann kid is okay too.” Chuck James got the same treatment. All I heard was how great John Maine and Mike Pelphrey were. Excuse me. Was James not better than either one of those guys?

By journalist jimmy smith

February 7, 2007 10:10 PM | Link to this

ah, yes, the blog police. keeps the ruffians out. now, baseball … dan kolb will make $1.2 million under a one-year contract if he is added to the pirates roster, and could earn an additional $1.3 million in performance bonuses. the united states of america is a great country! where else could dan kolb make this much money throwing a baseball badly? and now, spring training … will there be fishin’ and huntin’ and golfin’ and racin’ or will there be base runnin’, throwin’, buntin’, and movin’ the runner over? strechin’, pullin’, and runnin’ may make this team fearsome. if pedro and the mets are conditionin’ it will be wise to refrain from greasy fast foods and golfin’. baseball. concentrate on baseball. this journalist again predicts langerhans will be much improved.

By The Grinch

February 7, 2007 10:16 PM | Link to this

DOB, Batting AVG, HR’s, RBI’s, walks, and OPS are all outdated stats that don’t actually reflect how good or bad a hitter is. Get with the program. :-)

By David O'Brien

February 7, 2007 10:17 PM | Link to this

Shaun, this might be the most pretentious, patronizing sentence written on the blog in recent memory:

“I think the voters meant well, but I don’t think they realized that Pujols’s abilities in 2006 (evident by a better AVG/OBP/SLG and defense) contributed more to run scoring and run prevention than Howard’s.”

We’ll see if we can get all the BBWAA writers to consult you for a sabermetrics breakdown next fall before they cast their ballots, putting aside what they themselves consider to be important stats, and obviously disregarding what they’ve witnessed with their own eyes over the course of the season.

Or you could just come up with your own awards, which would obviously be more accurate and meaningful.

By KC

February 7, 2007 10:42 PM | Link to this

DOB: “I mean, on paper, how do you pick against the Mets if you’re an outside, impartial observer?”

Okay, here’s my answer: Opening day rotation: Glavine, Hernandez, Maine, Perez, Jorge Sosa???

The Mets definitely have an edge offensively (after the LaRoche trade), but not a colossal one. The Mets will probably finish 1st or 2nd in runs scored this season. The Braves… probably 3rd or 4th.

On the other hand, the Mets will likely drop multiple slots in the team ERA rankings from last year. They were 3rd last season, but I think they’ll have a hard time cracking the top 5 in that category with their rotation and a slightly diminished bullpen.

I predict (and I think it’s infinitely reasonable to do so) that the Braves will finish 3 or more slots ahead of the Mets in team ERA… and that, I believe, will be the difference.

The Mets have a bit of an the edge in offense, but the Braves now have the edge in pitching. I’ll bet on pitching, but I certainly expect a tight race.

Having said that… I don’t have any problems with prognosticators giving the Mets their nod in the NL east heading into the season. It’s the “Braves in 3rd and 4th place” predictions I have a hard time comprehending.

Everyone knows that there are question marks hanging over the heads of Hampton and Hudson. Fine. But the preseason predictions I’ve read have made reference only in passing to Atlanta’s bullpen. Furthermore, many are acting as though the Braves are going to have a hard time scoring runs or something… which I find absolutely ridiculous.

Bottom line, the Braves are most likely team in the NL to finish in the top 3 or 4 in the league in both runs scored and team ERA. That’s why I’m bullish on this team.

By Head Coach

February 7, 2007 10:44 PM | Link to this

Howard or Pujols ? Definitely Pujols. Howard had better raw numbers last season , But Pujols is the better pure hitter. See Pujols 92 walks/50 strikeouts ratio compared to Howard’s 108 walks/181 strikeouts. Pujols .331 AVG and 1102 OPS VS. Howard’s .304 AVG and 1084 OPS not to mention that Albert has done it for six years compared to Ryan’s one big season so far.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

February 7, 2007 10:45 PM | Link to this

Shaun, Howard deserved the MVP. Yes, Puljos was right there, but I think last year was one of those years that actually gave it to the most valuable player. Howard did single handedly carry the Phils the last two months. I think you rely too much upon numbers, man. Hell, I honestly would’ve put Jose Reyes into that discussion as well. Lets not bs. Take Reyes out of that Mets lineup and they would be in big trouble. That Mets team wouldn’t have been near as good without Reyes there.

By journalist jimmy smith

February 7, 2007 10:47 PM | Link to this

soon, the braves will travel to central florida. are plans in place to keep the braves players safe from astronauts?

By KC

February 7, 2007 10:52 PM | Link to this

journalist jimmy:

Niiiice!

By KC

February 7, 2007 11:00 PM | Link to this

Okay… well, there’s a freshly minted episode of Lost waiting for me on the ole’ DVR. Gotta run. G’night all.

By flbravesgirl

February 7, 2007 11:00 PM | Link to this

jimmy, I think the players are safe but their wives may want bodyguards if they accompany the guys to Orlando.

By MBATL

February 7, 2007 11:03 PM | Link to this

Is it so hard to fathom?

Best hitter in baseball: Albert Pujols 2006 NL Most Valuable Player: Ryan Howard

Ted Williams, Willie Mays and Lou Gehrig only won the MVP twice each; doesn’t mean they weren’t the best hitters of their generations (and that’s overlooking Hank, who won only 1 MVP).

Williams won the triple crown in ‘42 but still didn’t win the MVP. The voters voted, and life went on…

By TennesseePaul

February 7, 2007 11:17 PM | Link to this

MVP voters love RBI guys on winning teams over more important numbers like OBP and SLG

One last thing about this… guys on winning teams … It doesn’t make much sense. Howard wasn’t on the WS team, yet Pujols was… A-Rod won when he was on a last place team. I can only think of 1 WS Bonds has appeared in but he has 7 MVPs. I don’t think it is justified so say voters only pick high RBI guys on winning teams over everything else. And I’d also like to add that while OBP and SLG are great ways to judge a hitter, they aren’t the total package of a player. A player is more than just the offensive numbers he puts up. After all, it is the Most Valuable Player award.

By Gil

February 7, 2007 11:27 PM | Link to this

DOB… Nice article on Thorman, like I said. You are going to get your money’s worth with this kid. If he starts using the whole field and not try to pull the ball he will find a lot more hits. The national outlets will always focus on the big money markets. Fox prayed in vain for anyone besides a small market team for the World Series. They always want LA and New York or at least Boston. The Phillies have under achieved for so long it in now the norm for them to just miss the big show. They are tough on the Braves though. Let’s hope we can gain a little respect at the beginning of the season up there. And jjs the lesson in that is to never get involve with a woman who wears diapers.

By TennesseePaul

February 7, 2007 11:34 PM | Link to this

His best year was 1999, when he had career highs with a .319 average, 46 home runs and 144 RBIs
Just read this on a page about Vinny Castilla’s final game. That was the year Chipper won the MVP. Castilla beat him in all three catagories, but didn’t win the MVP.

Robert (JIB): I don’t it really is based upon who is the most valuable player. If that were the case, Andruw would have won it in 2005.
The main reason sited for not voting for AJ was because hit .250 in the clutch that season. They backed their votes by saying Pujols was better in late and close situations… and therefore more valuable to his team. And he did it all season long, where as AJ that year caught fire after the season began and yadda yadda yadda. Basically the main argument was based on splits. Various voters pointed out other things, but this was the most consistant point I read during the voting. And, if it were a purely statistic award based on Triple Crown numbers I think AJ would’ve won… The argument Payne is using for why Howard won would apply to AJ… AJ had more HR and RBIs than Pujols did that year, yet Pujols won.
Now, I’m not saying that Stats aren’t used to make a descision, but I think they are complemented with other factors. I don’t think it is purely statistcal like the Triple Crown or Batting Title, or Silver Slugger award, or so on…

I’m not a voter so I really don’t know what the collective minds think, but from what I read after the votes are in, it leads me to believe there is a little more to it than just pure number crunching on the RBI, HR, and AVG columns juxtaposed with the team W/L columns.

By DAP

February 7, 2007 11:42 PM | Link to this

shaun, im not too sure youre right about chipper not having anyone in front of him that gets on base. we have this guy named…geez, what was it? A car rent area? i cant remember…but he does pretty good at getting on base i think.

By David O'Brien

February 7, 2007 11:51 PM | Link to this

KC, to be clear: I said an impartial, outside observer. I don’t include myself or others who follow the Braves closely. I’m talking about national reporters and others who don’t realize just know how much last year’s bullpen undermined the team, even more than the 29 blown saves indicate. Those who perhaps don’t know how much better the team was after Wickman joined the Braves, and how good James was after joining the rotation, and how well Chipper played when healthy, etc.

That said, I’m leaning toward picking the Braves to win the division, though I’ll wait a bit longer. I’m also bullish on this Braves team.

By David O'Brien

February 8, 2007 12:14 AM | Link to this

TennPaul, sorry but that’s just not accurate.

Andruw beat Pujols in two stats _ HR and RBIs _ and finished significantly behind him in most others.

Batting average: Andruw .263, Albert .330.

Doubles: Andruw 24, Albert 38.

Runs: Andruw 95, Albert 129.

Stolen bases: Andruw 5, (8 att), Albert 16 (18 att)

OBP: Andruw .347, Albert .430.

Slugging: Andruw .575, Albert .609.

OPS: Andruw .922, Albert 1.039.

Strikeouts: Andruw 112, Albert 65.

Walks: Andruw 64, Albertt 97.

Avg. with runners in scoring position:

Andruw .207 (38-for-184), Albert .329 (46-for-140).

It was the average with runners in scoring position that was cited by many voters as a decisive factor. Think about it this way: Andruw had 44 more at-bats in those situations, yet eight fewer hits than Pujols.

If Andruw had hit .250 with RISP, just had eight more hits in those situations, he wouldn’t probably had 140 RBIs.

If he’d hit .275 in those situations, which would’ve been 12 more hits in those spots, he’d have probably totaled 145 or more runs.

In other words, with the huge number of at-bats he had in those situations (far more than most cleanup hitters), Andruw would’ve probably had to hit under .200 not to drive in 120, given his homer total that season.

I mean, .207 is really bad with RISP. He was much better with RISP in 2006 _ .276 (48-for-174).

If Andruw had hit .276 with RISP in 2005, I can almost guarantee you he’d have won the MVP award. Because not only would that number look a lot more respectable compared to Pujols’ avg, but Andruw would also have had 145-150 RBIs to go with his majors-leading 51 homers, and that would have been too overwhelming for most voters not to give it to him.

That, plus his annual Gold Glove. But Pujols is also good defensively. Not great, like Andruw, but good.

By Head Coach

February 8, 2007 12:21 AM | Link to this

Wow , I’m cautiously optimistic toward the Braves at this point. But , If I had to choose(and I’m not choosing at this point) it wouldn’t be the Braves winning the division. Y’all might want to wait and see where we are at 6-8 weeks into the season before drawing any concrete conclusions.

By mr baseball

February 8, 2007 12:25 AM | Link to this

Here’s another reason why some of us long ago reached the conclusion that Bobby Cox is not the sharpest pencil in the box: According to DOB, the manager plans to pick a pitcher for Pena to be his personal catcher, relegating McCann to the bench every fifth game or so.

Why????????

You can understand that if the 2nd catcher is Charlie O’Brien or Henry Blanco who meshes better with Maddux or Smoltz than Javy may have. Doing the same thing with Pena makes little if any sense.

Why stick one pitcher with a sub-standard offensive catcher (at least compared to McCann) every time? Why not give Pena a chance to work with all the starters at some point, just in case McCann gets hurt? Why sit McCann against a RH pitcher he’s had success against, or play him against a tough lefty, based on who’s pitching for the Braves? Why sit McCann if Pena’s designated pitcher is the starter but McCann is on a hot streak and the Braves are off the next day?

I almost hate to stay this, but you can make a case that Cox likes to do it this way just because it makes his job easier. Instead of having to pick his spots when to sit McCann, which might require a little thought, let’s just have Pena catch Hampton (for the sake of argument) every time he pitches. No muss, no fuss. Easy as pie.

I hope the decision is not set in stone. If healthy, McCann can add a dozen or so games to the 130 he would catch under Cox’s favored system. And if the Braves get back in the playoffs, you might not have to introduce McCann to Hampton when the pitcher makes his first start of the post-season.

By David O'Brien

February 8, 2007 12:32 AM | Link to this

MBATL, well said, regarding the historical perspective on MVPs, greatest hitters, etc.

JJS, how far did they say that lady Astronaut can venture over? Is Lake Buena Vista in her restricted zone, within her restraint order guidelines?

“Dude, the time you wore the diaper and drove across the country non-stop … that was awesome.”

(one question, as Dave Letterman pointed out last night, did she have a car that got 900 miles on a tank of gas?)

By TennesseePaul

February 8, 2007 12:34 AM | Link to this

DOB: Thanks for the info on the AJ stats. My recollection of AJs RISP AVG was way off! Sheeesh.
I think, though I’m missing the point you are countering. I was trying to say MVP voting is based on a bunch of stats, splits and other factors, which you highlighted very well, not just the Triple Crown (AVG, HR, RBI) stats. I noted most voters citing clutch numbers as a reason not to vote for him. If it was this line if it were a purely statistic award based on Triple Crown numbers I think AJ would’ve won I was intending it to apply simply to AVG, HR and RBI, which I noted AJ did better than Pujols in two of those columns, much like Howard bested Pujols in the same two columns. I was pointing out how Payne says it’s the HR, RBI that voters errantly base votes on… as he so humbly put it. If that were truly the case, then you would think, since AJ bested Pujols in the same two columns as Howard bested Pujols, he would have won, but obviously there is more to it.

By TennesseePaul

February 8, 2007 12:40 AM | Link to this

Damn. It’s a lot easier to read when you set the beer down and just look at the screen. I see what you are saying now DOB. I was way off on the AJ clutch numbers. Way off. I remembered it being bad, but I guess my personal bias automatically grants him 43 points on his average. But whatever, I still don’t think MVP voters cast votes based entirely off three columns of the player and then the team stadings at the end of the year which was what I was attempting to say. Now to finish the beer.

By The Grinch

February 8, 2007 12:53 AM | Link to this

Mmmmmmm…..beeeeer…..G’night, all.

By Head Coach

February 8, 2007 01:36 AM | Link to this

Mr. Baseball , whether you love or hate Cox. His brand of Bobbyball has worked fairly well over the years. I take it you have probably never caught a nine inning game , right ? It’s a brutally demanding position to play. McCann and every other starting catcher appreciates a day off to heal and rest the bumps and bruises. The more I think about the trade with the Pirates , the more I believe they screwed themselves. They got a fine starting first baseman in Laroche , but they didn’t win last year and they won’t win with Laroche in the line up this season. They would have been better off in the long run trading for Thorman and a guy like Escobar and hanging on to Lillibridge. They would have had three young players who all had a realistic chance of contributing or making the majors. Instead , they have Laroche and an outfielder ,(Romak) who we will probably never hear from again. Nothing against Laroche , but three is better than one in my book.

By Shaun

February 8, 2007 08:50 AM | Link to this

Shaun, this might be the most pretentious, patronizing sentence written on the blog in recent memory:

“I think the voters meant well, but I don’t think they realized that Pujols’s abilities in 2006 (evident by a better AVG/OBP/SLG and defense) contributed more to run scoring and run prevention than Howard’s.”

We’ll see if we can get all the BBWAA writers to consult you for a sabermetrics breakdown next fall before they cast their ballots, putting aside what they themselves consider to be important stats, and obviously disregarding what they’ve witnessed with their own eyes over the course of the season.

Or you could just come up with your own awards, which would obviously be more accurate and meaningful. I’m really not trying to put down the voters. I think they really believed that Howard was worth more wins to the Phillies than Pujols to the Cardinals.

I’m really not trying to put the voters down. I think they really believe that Howard was worth more wins to the Phillies than Pujols was to the Cardinals. The thing is I really don’t understand why. You don’t have to be a saberite to see that Pujols was better.

But I think the facts say something different. The fact is Pujols had a better AVG, OBP, SLG while playing half his games in a park that favors pitchers. He was better defensively. He played on a first-place team (if you want to go that route). He hit .397/.535/.802 with runners in scoring position…..397/.535/.802!! He hit .319/.457/.792 in the 7th or later with the Cards ahead by one, or the tying run at least on deck. Can’t say anything bad about Howard’s numbers in those situation, but they simply aren’t as good as Pujols.

Yes, Howard hit better in the second half, but are wins in the second half more important? Pujols hit significantly better than Howard in the first half, so shouldn’t he get credit for that if we want to break it down that way?

If you want to say Howard is a big reason why the Phillies were 45-30 in the 2nd half (which I agree with) don’t you also have to say Pujols was a big reason why the Cards were 48-39 in the first half? And isn’t building up a big lead in your division at least just as important as storming back and almost making the playoffs?

By any objective measure, Pujols was the better player. I’m not trying to be condescending or rude, but I don’t get the argument for Howard over Pujols. Pujols’s numbers are better. He played better defense by all accounts. It doesn’t seem that Pujols did anything detrimental off the field to cost the Cards wins. Pujols was the best hitter on a first place team while Howard was on a second place team (although Howards team did win two more games). Seems as though Pujols was responsible for a greater percentage of his teams runs (and runs prevented) than Howard, so I don’t think you can say Howard was any more important to the Phillies as Pujols was to the Cards.

Maybe the voters hold Pujols to a higher standard. Maybe they felt uncomfortable giving him another MVP when there was another very strong candidate whom they could support. Maybe they just remember what happened last (Howard’s better second half) and forgot what happened early (Pujols’s significantly better first half).

By Shaun

February 8, 2007 09:04 AM | Link to this

Payne says it’s the HR, RBI that voters errantly base votes on… as he so humbly put it. If that were truly the case, then you would think, since AJ bested Pujols in the same two columns as Howard bested Pujols, he would have won, but obviously there is more to it.

TennesseePaul,

Actually, I’ll admit I was wrong in saying voters look at HR and RBI as the most important things. I do believe they are important to voters but I’m not sure how many voters decide what most valuable means. Doesn’t seem to be any consistency. I think it has a lot to do with what they have in their memory, what happened last.

Howard got extra credit for a better second half than Pujols even though Pujols was a lot better than Howard in the first half.

Many voters apparently think the 2nd half of the baseball season is more important, although I don’t think history has shown it to be the case that winning in one part of a season is more vital than winning in a different part. Seems just as good to build up a big lead in the first half and play average the rest of the way (2006 Cards, 1984 Tigers) as it is to struggle early then storm back (Astros and A’s in recent year).

By Lew

February 8, 2007 09:21 AM | Link to this

Shaun-You better go check your facts. I think if you look it up, you will find that the Phillies didn’t hit that many more HR than the Cardinals, or the Braves for that matter, who play in a supposed pitcher’s park.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 8, 2007 09:31 AM | Link to this

Journalist Jimmy,

I don’t know about throwin’ and stretchin’, but I bet the bullpen area will see a lot of dippin’ and chewin’ and scratchin’ and spittin’ and gruntin’ and eatin’ and belchin’.

By Shaun

February 8, 2007 09:40 AM | Link to this

Lew,

Cardinals and Braves did play in parks that favored pitchers. Just because a team hits more homeruns than another doesn’t mean their home park was more favorable to hitters. The Rockies were near the bottom in homers but do you actually believe Coors Field wasn’t a good park for hitters?

By Shaun

February 8, 2007 09:52 AM | Link to this

DAP,

I’m not saying Chipper doesn’t have any high on-base guys in front of him. I’m just saying Andruw has more—the top two hitters and Chipper himself (a freakin’ on-base monster). Chipper doesn’t have a “freakin’ on-base monster” in front of him.

By Shaun

February 8, 2007 10:05 AM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

I think the thing is there is no consistent standard as to how the voters define most valuable, which is to be expected because it’s a group vote. And I’m not complaining about the process. It is what it is. I’m just saying my definition of most valuable is the player who helps his team win the most—and I would add my definition is different from the voters’. There are times where it seems a player was worth more in terms of helping his team win than the MVP winner. I think it’s largely because some voters see value differently than I do.

I think it’s pretty clear Mike Piazza was worth more/more valuable to the Dodgers than Larry Walker was to Rockies in 1997. I’m assuming the voters didn’t take into account Coors Field and Dodger Stadium and the fact Piazza played a tougher position.

By rammerjammer

February 8, 2007 10:10 AM | Link to this

DOB,

Really enjoyed the article on Thorman. Also enjoyed and appreciated LaRoche’s comments. Sound like two great guys.

The AJC article on Hampton was a bit troubling, didn’t you think? I know he said he felt “pretty good” after throwing off the mound, but the impression Hampton left was that he was concerned.

By Shaun

February 8, 2007 10:25 AM | Link to this

TennPaul and O’Brien,

Not trying to be a jerk with this MVP thing. I just think if you define most valuable as worth most in terms of contributing to winning I think the evidence is pretty clear who was more valuable in the 2006 NL. I’ve tried to point out all the evidence I could come up with. I don’t have any reason to favor one candidate over the other, just would have like to see the most valuable player win the MVP award. If I were God, I would have made Chipper or Andrew the most valuable, so I don’t think I have a vested interest in trying to convince everyone Pujols deserved the award other than I strongly believe the evidence shows he was more valuable.

By Lew

February 8, 2007 11:10 AM | Link to this

Shaun-That’s all fine and well, but when you start saying Howard’s power numbers are as a result of a favorable hitter’s park, then you have to take into account the numbers put up in the other player’s park. I contend that the Cardinals (and the Braves), put up almost the same numbers playing in pitcher’s parks (and if St.Louis is a pitcher’s park, how do you explain the lousy pitching numbers the Cards put up?-I refer you to Jason Marquis). You can’t have it both ways if that’s how you’re going to argue it.

By kdbanks

February 8, 2007 11:14 AM | Link to this

DOB -

You mention being bullish on the Braves in the division this year, and it got me thinking. This is the first time I can remember looking at the NL East and thinking “one of four teams could win it, and it wouldn’t be a shocker.” Don’t you think that the Braves, Marlins, Mets and Phillies all are legitimate? Or at least all 4 are equally capable? Poor Nationals.

It should make for an intersting year. I’m sure someone will have a hot April/May and someone will have a cold April/May, and then we’ll have better perspective, but right now it looks even to me.

By Lew

February 8, 2007 11:34 AM | Link to this

KDBanks-I wouldn’t count on the Marlins putting up that much of a showing. Sanchez and Johnson are already experiencing arm problems (just like Tom Verducci said they would-they were overused-it happens time and again). It is doubtful all thoses young players will have seasons like last year again. I doubt Uggla will come close. Hanley Ramirez is also experiencing injury difficulties, too.

By The Grinch

February 8, 2007 11:48 AM | Link to this

The way everyone’s completely writing off the Nats is getting me worried that they’re gonna get po’d and suprise everyone. You never know. BTW, has nobody on this blog figured out yet that no matter who’s right or wrong it’s completely impossible to out-argue Shaun? It can’t even be done when three or more gang up on him. He’s the Robocop of the Braves blog. Fuggeddabouddit. It’s like Ewoks trying to bring down a Wookie. Just bow down and accept his superiority (not necc. in intellect, but sheer, unrelenting tenacity). Shaun will be explaining sabremetrics to the cockroaches after a nuclear holocaust when the rest of us are long-since vaporized. All hail Shaun!

By TennesseePaul

February 8, 2007 11:49 AM | Link to this

Fulton County stadium had a nickname when it was opened… “The Launching Pad”. It was due to it’s elevation and the amount of homers flying out of it. At the time it was one of the highest elevated parks in all of MLB. And, at the Time Hammerin’ Hank was cranking the ball out. Turner Field is a new park, but it’s built right next to “The Launching Pad”. I don’t think the elevation changed all that much during construction of Turner Field. I’d agree that it is more of a pitchers park than Coors or the Phillies stadium or quite a few others, but I don’t know if it can be completely labeled a pitchers park like Dodger Stadium. At least, old Dodger Stadium when it had 55,000 extra square feet of foul territory. All that space is now taken up with new seats. But even still that stadium is practicly at sea level in a revene with barely any wind.
The only thing that really changed from the time Fulton opened to the time Turner Field opened was Hank retiring and the quality of pitching. For the better part of 15 years three hall of fame pitchers were on the mound.

And I don’t think you can possibly justify saying Howards numbers were boosted due to his home park. He hit better on the road than at that park. He hit the same number of homers at home as on the road. He hit for higher average, power and OBP on the road. Of course, it was drastically better, just slightly better. The guy practicly mirrored his home stats on the road. He was just slightly better on the road. Basically, what you can tell about Howard is, he is a really good hitter. He used all the of the field. And now that I just looked at it… Howard did better on the Road than Pujols did. Pujols shows a major benefit of hitting at home over the road.

By TennesseePaul

February 8, 2007 12:05 PM | Link to this

wasn’t… Steve you gotta get better at catchin the typo’s

By kdbanks

February 8, 2007 12:08 PM | Link to this

Lew -

I agree that the Marlins have some things going against them - but so do the Braves, Mets and Phillies. That’s totally my point. Anyone of those 4 could pull off 88 wins and steal the division. What if those young guys are fine, and Uggla keeps hitting and they build on the momentum they started last year? It could happen, and wouldn’t be that big of a shocker.

Grinch - I’m not sure that the Nats care enough to get P.O.’d that everyone is writing them off. I don’t know that anyone on that team wants to be there. But you never know, right?

By journalist jimmy smith

February 8, 2007 12:09 PM | Link to this

launching pad? astronauts? chawin’? scratchin’? diapers? oh, the humanity! this blog has come full circle. and what of music? and pie? and whither the hartebeest and wicky? this journalist has did some thinking since last night and jimmy smith thinks this blog has recently become a kinder, gentler, blog place. it is time for carolina lady to return but all bloggers must ask her to come back. we must have a report on the john deere and the crows. now, baseball … if the bullpen becomes unkempt with the likes of wicky out there for a full season, will the grouds crew have to add the bullpen to its ritual cleanup during the game? and how is a sun-caked chaw removed from the field? and conditioning … will wicky run? leo did not require much running and roger may decide to run these huge relievers a bit more this spring. not sure, just speculating.

By MBATL

February 8, 2007 12:13 PM | Link to this

Seems like the Hank Aaron was originally created to do more what Shaun describes. In ‘99, it was created to honor the best hitter in each league - using objective numbers (not the specific numbers Shaun would use, but at least objective).

But, they changed it in ‘00, to allow broadcasters to vote on it, and then added a fan voting component in ‘03, so now it’s 70% broadcaster votes, and 30% fan votes. I guess now it’s really similar to MVP, except that pitchers aren’t eligible.

Shaun, how would a guy like Eckersley in ‘92 or Clemens in ‘86 have stacked up in the MVP race, using your “contributions to wins” model? Is it possible for a pitcher to compete with a hitter?

By Shaun

February 8, 2007 12:18 PM | Link to this

Lew,

I never brought up Howard’s numbers and his home park. I’m fully aware that Howard’s road numbers are just as impressive as his home numbers. I’m also fully aware that Albert Pujols put up better numbers than Howard both on the road and at home.

I don’t have the numbers in front of me, but I’m almost certain the Braves put up better numbers at home and on the road than the Cards did because the Braves were a better offensive club.

Similarly, the Cards put up “lousy” pitching numbers because their pitchers were “lousy.” (Well, “lousy” during the regular season. I would replace lousy with average.)

Houston hitters were lousy—5th fewest runs scored in the NL. But I don’t know anyone who would argue that Minute Maid Park is a pitchers park. How do you explain their lousy numbers, then? Easy—their offense was lousy. They scored 4.48 runs per game on the road, which is not good. The average NL team scored 4.76 R/G in 2006.

No one determines that a park is a hitters park, pitchers park or neutral based on what the home team does there—that wouldn’t tell us anything because the home team could be great or lousy at hitting or pitching.

By TennesseePaul

February 8, 2007 12:30 PM | Link to this

Albert Pujols put up better numbers than Howard both on the road and at home.

You are Incorrect sir!

Pujols Road Numbers
AVG SLG OBP HR R RBI
.317 .653 .409 25 53 67

Howards Road Numbers
AVG SLG OBP HR R RBI
.318 .662 .427 29 52 74

Howard had Pujols beat in all those catagories saave 1. Pujols had 1 more Run Scored than Howard.

By Shaun

February 8, 2007 12:38 PM | Link to this

KC,

Actually, I’m wrong. Howard hit better than Pujols on the road. But Pujols hit better at his home park, which is strange because Pujols’s home park is no doubt a better pitchers park.

MBATL,

I would argue that it’s not impossible for a pitcher to win the MVP but he has to do much more than an everyday player because an everyday player plays in so many more games. I know pitchers impact games more than any other position but in this day and age a starter will pitch maybe 35 games and a reliever will throw 50-60 innings compared to good everyday players who will play at least 150 games.

As far as having another award, I would say it’s not necessary. I think the definition of league MVP is the best player in the league for that year.

By Shaun

February 8, 2007 12:42 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

I was incorrect, sir. I stand corrected.

Pujols however put up much better number in his home park than Howard did in his home park and Pujols’s numbers are still better overall. Don’t know if there is a logical explanation for this because Pujols’s home park is pretty clearly a worse pitchers park than Howard’s home park.

I don’t think my error changes my MVP argument too much—Pujols still had better overall offensive numbers and was better defensively.

By Shaun

February 8, 2007 12:45 PM | Link to this

MBATL,

I’m not opposed to pitchers winning the MVP and my objection is not that they have their own award. It’s just that it’s much harder for a player playing in about 1/4 of their teams games or throwing much less than one percent of their team’s innings pitched to make the same impact as an everyday player.

By Shaun

February 8, 2007 12:47 PM | Link to this

Don’t know if there is a logical explanation for this because Pujols’s home park is pretty clearly a worse hitters park than Howard’s home park—that’s what I meant to say.

By TennesseePaul

February 8, 2007 12:50 PM | Link to this

Pujols’s home park is pretty clearly a worse pitchers park than Howard’s home park.

Drink some coffee Payne… Or a beer. I’d recommend the beer.

By KayakJack in VA

February 8, 2007 12:55 PM | Link to this

Off topic but Braves related.. Guys and Gals, I could use some help. I don’t now and have never lived in ATL (grew up south of Macon but now live in Virginia). Go to a game whenever I’m in ATL but that’s usually one or two a year. (Did catch Chippers great game against the Nationals last year!) I somehow convinced my wife that our anniversary is a great day to see a Braves game… ;-) I am going to be in Atlanta on April 9th and really want tickets to the game against the Mutts. I gather that single game tix don’t go onsale till March 1st. Is waiting till March 1st my only option? If so, is there anything I can do to make sure I get tix? I’m open to any and all suggestions. I want decent seats at a price that won’t bankrupt Ted Turner. Thanks for the help…

By TennesseePaul

February 8, 2007 12:58 PM | Link to this

Payne: I’d agree that the Pitcher winning the MVP is a pretty tough thing to do. But it isn’t down right impossible. Say he goes 33-2 with a 0.50 ERA, 20 CG Shutouts and 12 games of 20 Ks or more including 6 perfect games holding opponents to a .025 batting average and a .030 OBP… I’d say he deserves immediate enshrinement in the Hall to go along with his Cy and MVP awards.

maybe the Pitcher doesn’t need to be that good though…

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 8, 2007 01:02 PM | Link to this

Journalist Jimmy,

Should the front office consider hiring a chaw catcher, kinda like a ball boy, to catch Wicky’s chaw when he heaves it after a save?

By Shaun

February 8, 2007 01:29 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

I’ve enjoyed the MVP discussion, even though O’Brien thought one of my comments was patronizing. Always a good topic for debate.

By David O'Brien

February 8, 2007 01:49 PM | Link to this

KDBanks, yes, I agree it’s one of the only times I can remember four teams with such legit reason to believe they can win the NL East. Poor Nats, indeed….

TennPaul, Eckersley won the AL MVP in 1992 when he went 7-1 with 51 saves and a 1.91 ERA for Oakland.

I think Maddux should’ve won NL MVP over Larkin in 1995, a shortened season in which Maddux was 19-2 with an otherworldly 1.63 ERA in 28 starts, with 10 complete games and 181 strikeouts in 209-2/3 innings. He was ridiculously good, leading the league in almost everything good including wins, CGs, shutouts (three), innings, strikeouts, opponents’ OBP (.224).

Larkin hit .319 with 15 homers, 98 runs, 66 RBIs, 51 steals, a .394 OBP and .492 slugging….

Lew, thoughtful arguments. But of course Shaun can have it both ways. He’ll twist any stats he wants to try and convince you Pujols’ overall stats were better than Howard’s, though we know they weren’t. (And why this is such an obsession with him, I have no earthly idea).

Shaun, for all your usually sound arguments and thoughtful (if too stat-intensive for my tastes) arguments, you’ve simply lost this argument. You’re now coming across as desperate in your argument for Pujols. Just give it a freakin’ rest already.

Howard had an unbelievable season. Better than Pujols, if only by a small degree.

By the way, Shaun, remember Pujols plays in the NL Central, which means he plays a lot of road games in a couple of the most hitter-friendly ballparks in all of baseball _ Cincinnati and Houston.

Howard plays in the East, with more road games at basically fair or pitcher-friendly parks in the division _ Shea, Turner Field, Dolphin Stadium, RFK.

In 71 road games last season, Pujols hit .317 with 25 homers, 67 RBIs, 42 walks, a .409 OBP and a .653 slugging percentage.

In 80 road games, Howard hit .318 with 29 homers (exact same as his home total), 74 RBIs (one fewer than his home total), 56 walks, a .427 OBP and .662 slugging percentage.

Yeah, you’re right. Pujols’ stats look better to me, especially given that he plays more games in hitters’ havens.

By KC

February 8, 2007 01:55 PM | Link to this

2007 Braves lineup predictions:

Johnson: .282, 10-HR, 49-RBI, 12-SB, .353 OBP

Renteria: .291, 13-HR, 58-RBI, 14-SB, .367 OBP

C. Jones: .314, 30-HR, 102-RBI (in 142 games)

A. Jones: .276, 44-HR, 129-RBI

McCann: .308, 27-HR, 96-RBI

Francoeur: .278, 34-HR, 110-RBI, (.324 OBP)

Thorman: .263, 23-HR, 72-RBI

LF platoon: .274, 19-HR, 70-RBI (Diaz will pull the combined BA of that platoon up. Wilson will pull the average down a bit, but bolster the power numbers)

Yeah… you hate to lose LaRoche, but this is still a pretty darn good lineup.

By David O'Brien

February 8, 2007 01:58 PM | Link to this

RammerJammer, I thought Hampton’s comments were at least a little bit of a concern. But it does reiterate exactly what Roger McDowell told me recently, the comments I wrote here, about Roger saying that he was cautiously optimistic and that it took 2 years or more for some pitchers coming back from TJ surgery to get it out of their heads and be willing to rear back and throw without worrying about their arms when they need to make a big pitch in a tough situation.

By flbravesgirl

February 8, 2007 02:00 PM | Link to this

jimmy, they may need to hire a full-time attendant for the bullpen who can clean up in between “errands” to the BBQ stand (and hot dog/nacho/sausage/burger/pizza/ice cream stands. Can’t y’all picture BigBob kicked back in the bullpen with a beer and a BBQ plate or a giant chili dog?).

And of course we want CL back!

By KC

February 8, 2007 02:09 PM | Link to this

DOB: Why did Hampton’s comments concern you? Isn’t he right on track? Isn’t “very good… not great, but very good” just fine to hear after his first action of the spring?

Really, I’m just hopeful that that he’ll start rounding into form after a few months. If he has a strong 2nd half, I’ll be very happy with that. One would think there’s an excellent chance that he’ll start looking like his old self in time for the September and October runs.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 8, 2007 02:15 PM | Link to this

Carolina Lady,

Come back and join us. FlBravesGirl needs some help cooking for us and cleaning up after us guys, while we bring home the bacon. (EVERYBODY DOWN!!!!) I’M KIDDING LADIES… If it takes a little tough love to bring you back, CL, then I’m willing to take one for the team. :-)

By MBATL

February 8, 2007 02:18 PM | Link to this

“pretty good,” not “very good” was what I read in the Hampton article. It sounded very cautious to me, but maybe Hampton has just decided to lowkey the whole process, which would probably be smart. Sounds like it… pretty much saying that 7 innings is the goal.

I think if KJ gets 500+ ab’s, he’s likely to come closer to 20 HR than 10 - but if he posts a .283/.353 and plays a decent 2B, that’ll be quite adequate regardless of the power numbers.

By rammerjammer

February 8, 2007 02:18 PM | Link to this

Geez, two years to get over TJ? Does last year count?

Hampton certainly comes across as being tough enough, so I don’t question his will.

But maybe, just maybe, he should start the season in Richmond or Mississippi so he can find his groove without forcing it or hurting the team.

Cormier or Oscar would be an adequate replacement.

By KC

February 8, 2007 02:19 PM | Link to this

I’ve always felt that it would take Hampton at least 2-3 months into the season before he would really start to get comfortable. I will admit however that I probably haven’t given enough credence to the difficulty of coming back from something like this.

After 18 months to recover, I don’t expect Hampton to have as much trouble with things like scar tissue (an issue he might have gotten out of the way over the off-season) or tendonitis. But I’m sure it will take a while for him to get comfortable.

Again, I hopeful for a strong second half… or at the very least, strong stretch and post-season runs from Hampton.

By David O'Brien

February 8, 2007 02:25 PM | Link to this

By the way, for those interested:

NL Central parks _ Cincy (129), Wrigley (120), Houston (118) _ had three of the six highest home run indexes in the NL last season, according to Bill James Handbook.

Others in top six were Arizona (133), Dodger Stadium (122) and Philadelphia (122).

They assign a score of 100 for neutral park, one in which “it can be said to have had no effect on that particular stat.”

It goes on to day, “If a park has a Home Run Index of 120, it was 20 percent easier to hit home run in that park than the rest of the parks in that team’s league.”

St. Louis had an 88 index, Atlanta a 93.

Rest of the NL East: Florida (89), Shea (88), RFK (86).

Anything below 100 means the park favored pitchers, in terms of homers hit in 2006 when compared to the team and its opponents’ homers hit at the home park and in road games.

By Shaun

February 8, 2007 02:28 PM | Link to this

O’Brien,

I’m not trying to twist anything. I could care less who the NL MVP was, except I want it to be the best player—the player that helped his team win the most.

It’s difficult for me to see how anyone could say Howard had a better year. I could maybe understand that they were pretty equal on offense.

Pujols beats him in AVG/OBP/SLG (overall), he won the Gold Glove, he played on a first-place team, he stole more bases.

I couldn’t care less which player wins it other than I just want the most deserving player to win it. The evidence is pretty clear as to who was the best player in the NL in 2006. And he played on a division winner. And the good thing is the evidence is clear where intuition and opinion may be flawed.

Given an the exact same lineup, who would you have rather had as your firstbaseman in 2006? Choice is pretty clear to me. I’ll take the guy who put up the third-best AVG, 2nd best OBP and best SLG and Gold Glove defense. Doesn’t mean I wouldn’t love to have Howard, it’s just Pujols was the clear choice in 2006.

If all that is patronizing to award voters, so be it. At least 12 of them agree. And at least the NL voting wasn’t as bad as the AL voting.

By David O'Brien

February 8, 2007 02:30 PM | Link to this

Those ballpark indexes make Andruw’s 92 homers in the past two seasons all the more impressive, huh?

And consider this: San Francisco (69) is the lowest in the majors, just ahead of Fenway (73).

Say what we will about Bonds, but what he did while playing half his home games in that park _ ungodly.

By rammerjammer

February 8, 2007 02:32 PM | Link to this

On another topic, The Sporting News ranks the Braves outfielders as the best in the league. They say the rankings are based on “overall talent.”

They also said “When Langerhans starts, this is the National League’s best defensive outfield.”

As far as individual outfielder rankings, they list Andruw second…behind Beltran.

By Lew

February 8, 2007 02:37 PM | Link to this

Shaun-I won’t debate you any longer, for DOB’s aforementioned reasons. However, I would like to point out that in your 8:50 AM (this morning’s) post, comparing Pujols to Howard-and I quote-“The fact is Pujols had a better AVG, OBP and SLG while playing half his games in a park that favors pitchers.” Yes, you did bring up parks as a factor. Do you even listen to what you say?

By Shaun

February 8, 2007 02:46 PM | Link to this

O’Brien,

I don’t know if those park effects help us too much with the MVP discussion (if that’s why you brought them up).

Pujols hit better in his home park than Howard hit in his and Howard’s was more hitter friendly. On the other hand, Howard hit better on the road than Pujols when Pujols probably played in more hitter friendly road parks. Both are opposite of what you’d expect.

By Shaun

February 8, 2007 02:50 PM | Link to this

Lew,

I should have just stayed away from park effects. But you say I can’t have it both ways—how can everyone who is arguing for Howard? Yes, Howard hit better on the road in tougher hitters parks but Pujols hit better at home in a tougher hitters park. So the park effect discussion seems to not get us anywhere in this case. Move to overall numbers and I think it’s clear who was better offensively and throw in the fact that Pujols won the Gold Glove and everything seems pretty clear.

By David O'Brien

February 8, 2007 02:53 PM | Link to this

Rammerjammer, I’d give Braves the “best defensive outfield” distinction when Langerhans is in. No question about it, for me, if you’re just talking defense. That’s two Gold Glove-caliber defensive guys right now, and anothr (Francoeur) with that kind of potential.

Of course, Langy won’t win any Gold Gloves without producing some offense. That’s unfortunately the way the voting’s always gone. Derrek Lee never got proper recognition for his defense until he started hitting consistently. He was the best 1B glove man long before he won his first Gold Glove.

By David O'Brien

February 8, 2007 02:57 PM | Link to this

Shaun, we’ve moved on. You’re arguing with yourself now…

I started with the ballpark indexes to illustrate how much easier it is to hit homers on the road in NL Central parks, but then it became far more interesting to me to just look at all the league’s parks and see how the East stacked up, when I started thinking about what Andruw’s done, and also what Bonds has done at Pac Bell (AT&T).

Anyway, done with the Pujols-Howard MVP debate. More I look at it, the more I realize how clear the edge was _ for Howard. Thankfully he won, as he should have.

By MBATL

February 8, 2007 03:05 PM | Link to this

Now, about the American League MVP voting …

By journalist jimmy smith

February 8, 2007 03:05 PM | Link to this

carolina lady bird house enterprises must be keeping carolina lady busy. soon, our mailboxes will be full of beautiful bird houses but at what cost to this blog? the loss of carolina lady to the blog? jimmy smith finds that unacceptable! carolina lady must return to the blog and resume baseball talk with the bloggers. now, baseball … if eva longoria gets a shot at second base as suggested by a blogger, this team is destined to finish in the bottom half of the national league. eva may be good with a glove, but she is far too skinny to carry much of a stick. better to keep kj or prado at second for now. and lastly, astronauts … imagine returning to the hampton inn and finding an astronaut in your room, suited up, eating your cheese - drinking all your tang and leaving discarded diapers in your room. not pretty. be glad the braves do not train at kissimmee.

By ssiscribe

February 8, 2007 03:06 PM | Link to this

DOB: Pitchers and catchers report one week from today, the 15th. Do you know if any of the players are going down early to Dark Star, aka The Evil Empire? Saw where some of the Cardinals are working out down in Jupiter, and I know there must be some other guys who are showing up (or soon will be) at their appointed spring ports-of-call.

—30—

By Shaun

February 8, 2007 03:09 PM | Link to this

O’Brien,

I’ll move on. Nothing I can do about a lot of voters putting the wrong name on the ballot. The evidence is pretty clear who should have won. The evidence speaks for itself—3rd best AVG, 2nd best OBP, best SLG, Gold Glove defense—pretty tough to beat that.

By MGL

February 8, 2007 03:15 PM | Link to this

Two immovable objects - Robert on Cox, Shaun on MVP.

By Lew

February 8, 2007 03:17 PM | Link to this

AAAAAAAARRRRRGGGGGHHHH!!!!!!

By Shaun

February 8, 2007 03:27 PM | Link to this

MGL,

Difference is Robert ignores a lot of evidence about Cox. My arguments center around evidence.

By David O'Brien

February 8, 2007 03:38 PM | Link to this

You’re right, Shaun. Evidence is pretty clear. Now move on, please, before you have an aneurysm _ or before you give me one….

By the way, I forget who the big Smashing Pumpkins fans were from our recent discussions here, but I wanted to recommend a great CD to you guys jonesing for that sound. The Silversun PIckups’ CD “Carnavas” is outstanding. I think it’s their debut, came out in 2006 and I just now got a copy and started listening to it. Great CD, and I don’t know of any band except the Pumpkins that they reallly sound similar to.

They’re an LA band (from the Silver Lake neighborhood, which ain’t far from Dodger Stadium, by the way) and the record won a bunch of Indie music awards in ‘06. I don’t know why I hadn’t heard it till now, but it’s great stuff.

By Daybed Wagmoe

February 8, 2007 03:43 PM | Link to this

they don’t give out gold gloves without defense? um, then how did mike lowell get one in 2005 with these offensive stats:

500 AB, 56 runs, 118 hits, 8 hr, 58 rbi, .236 average, .298 OBP, and .360 slugging.

i guess it’s because he had pretty good offensive stats before that point, but…

By bruce

February 8, 2007 03:47 PM | Link to this

Dave, In the past few days/weeks when you have had more in-person contact with players and coaches, what has been the biggest surprise to you? Could be something you saw, heard or were told that was different from your previous thinking/understanding. I really enjoy reading your opinion of things in addition to your reporting of the facts, though I guess you have to be a bit careful.

My guess is it would be that Chipper is planning to play as many days as possible and not planning to take days off with Aybar filling in as Mr. Schuerholz suggested several months ago. I remember months back when Aybar was suggested on this blog as 2B and Leadoff prospect, the thought was Aybar was going to be playing so much at third he could not be a candidate for 2nd base.

Also, I was away for a bit… thanks for the extra details earlier in this blog of Roger’s comments on Hampton’s coming back (with my words now) head and heart being as ready as the repaired tendon. I understand now; I think I was trying to read more into the word “because” in that paragraph. Great Thor story! Thanks alot, Bruce

By KayakJack in VA

February 8, 2007 03:52 PM | Link to this

Sorry for the dup post but no replies so hoping it just got missed…

Guys and Gals, I could use some help. I don’t now and have never lived in ATL (Georgia boy grew up south of Macon but have lived outside of GA my adult life - Rome, London, Boston, and Virginia for the last 15 years..) Go to a game whenever I’m in ATL but that’s usually one or two a year. (Did catch Chippers great game in DC against the Nationals last year!)

Anyway… Starting to ramble… I somehow convinced my wife that our anniversary is a great day to see a Braves game… ;-) I am going to be in Atlanta on April 9th and really want tickets to the game against the Mutts. I gather that single game tix don’t go onsale till March 1st. Is waiting till March 1st my only option? If so, is there anything I can do to make sure I get tix? I’m open to any and all suggestions. I want decent seats at a price that won’t bankrupt Ted Turner. Thanks for the help…

By Shaun

February 8, 2007 03:54 PM | Link to this

Last thing: If you think Howard’s edge in HR and RBI and 2nd half numbers mean more than Pujols’s edge in AVG, OBP, SLG and defense then I don’t know what to say. Nothing I can do to “win” this argument. I don’t see how that’s “twisting” anything to convince everyone that Pujols deserved the award. It’s there for all to see without much twisting involved. If you accept that the most important numbers indicating run creation are AVG, OBP and SLG and believe those who say Pujols is a Gold Glove caliber defensive player, it’s pretty simple. If you don’t, well, don’t know what to say. We’re not on the same page.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

February 8, 2007 04:10 PM | Link to this

Anna Nicole Smith— Dead at the age of 39….

By MGL

February 8, 2007 04:17 PM | Link to this

Shaun, as an obvious devotee of statistics, you should realize that the only statistic that matters in the selection of MVP is votes. Therefore, since Howard had the most votes, he deserved the MVP. End of story - nothing else matters.

By Head Coach

February 8, 2007 04:29 PM | Link to this

On another note…. has anybody realized that Richmond is going to have a real solid team. The trickle down effect of all those relievers is going to make their bullpen deep.

By TennesseePaul

February 8, 2007 04:38 PM | Link to this

DOB: I forgot about Eck winning. Thanks for reminding me. And I agree, Maddux should have won in 1995. Those stats, everytime I go and look at them, blow me away. He was something like 2.5 runs lower than the League average ERA… Ridiculous

This just in Anna Nicole Smith is Dead.

Silver Pickers… I’ll have to check them out. Silver Lake is the breading ground for a few bands these days. Rilo Kiley played their first shows in that town, though they were all from a different neighborhoods.

By Thrillhouse44

February 8, 2007 04:39 PM | Link to this

I can’t believe we’re debating the MVP award in February. Spring training can’t get here soon enough…

By David O'Brien

February 8, 2007 04:40 PM | Link to this

Daybed, you answered your own question: “i guess it’s because he had pretty good offensive stats before that point, but…”

Lowell averaged 28 homers and 94 RBIs over the previous three seasons.

With Rolen hurt for two-thirds of the ‘05 season, and Lowell clearly the other “best” 3B glove man in the NL, he finally got recognized for his defense with a Gold Glove.

By David O'Brien

February 8, 2007 04:52 PM | Link to this

Scribe, because the Braves have their pitching camp right up through the 12th, and because it’s not nearly as cold here as in places like St. Louis, Braves players are working out here, some at Turner Field, some at other local gyms and batting cages, etc.

So no, I don’t think anyone will be at Wide World of Fun Fun Fun until 14th, reporting date for P&Cs. Some like Kelly Johnson will get down there with the pitchers, and plenty others will trickle in by the weekend, well before reporting date for position players. Chipper’s always one of the first there, and Andruw, too.

By Head Coach

February 8, 2007 04:53 PM | Link to this

Marilyn Monroe dies at 36 , Anna Nicole Smith at 39. Two beautiful , blond , mixed up ladies who left us far to soon. Life just ate them up and it’s not fair.

By David O'Brien

February 8, 2007 04:53 PM | Link to this

TennPaul, it’s Silversun Pickups, not Silver Pickers.

Silver Pickers sounds like a great ol’ bluegrass band.

By The Grinch

February 8, 2007 05:05 PM | Link to this

Shaun wins again! All hail the mighty one! When are you poor people gonna learn? It’s like Dave arguing with HAL in 2001: Space Odyssey. YOU CAN’T BEAT A COMPUTER USING HUMAN ARGUMENTS. Do like the kid in “Wargames” and force him to overcalculate ‘till he reaches the conclusion “The only way to win is not to play,” and shuts off. It’s your only hope!

By TennesseePaul

February 8, 2007 05:17 PM | Link to this

Thanks DOB. lol. I would’ve looked like an idiot out there asking about the Silver Pickers.

Pujols is officially an American! God Bless America! Draining the talent pools of the world and packing them into our society.

By journalist jimmy smith

February 8, 2007 05:18 PM | Link to this

silver pickles are best eaten cold, right out of the refrigerator. this journalist prefers them with a light dusting of cheese. now, spring training will soon begin and lew will be distinguishable with easel and pad and in the vicinity of wicky doing portraits. if the bloggers could persuade lew to draw any particular atlanta brave - who would it be? andruw, chipper, smoltz are already done. how about mccann? and will bobby dews be at camp and what will bobby dews be doing? and how about daddy mccann? is his work with the several players done independently or have the braves retained daddy mccann to teach hitting? and if pete orr has learned to put the ball in play does he become a serious contender to make the team? can daddy mccann get results so quickly? and if daddy mccann could teach francoeur to be selective just a little bit what a monster he could make! now, cheese desserts: will someone share a recipe? and where will cheeseburgers be found on the disney property?

By David O'Brien

February 8, 2007 05:46 PM | Link to this

Grinch, that (5:05) was hilarious. Dude, I’m working on this Sunday camp preview, took a few minutes to glance back at the blog, saw that post and laughed out loud….

Head Coach, I don’t think we’ll be seeing Anna Nicole attain icon status like Marilyn.

Not that it isn’t sad, because it certainly is. But other that bombshell looks, drugs, and guys who mistreated them, doesn’t seem to be much else in common between Anna and Marilyn, who was an actual legitimate actress and unenhanced beauty (at least I think she was unenhanced, right?)

But wow, what a story.

How one woman can be so messed up and have so much go so seriously wrong _ I mean, she dies at 39, shortly after her 20-year-old son dies. And not like we’re talking car accidents or whatever here. Then there’s the 89-year-old hubby who died shortly after they married. It’s all just so ridiculously bizarre for one lifetime.

By KayakJack in VA

February 8, 2007 06:16 PM | Link to this

Sorry for the dup post but no replies so hoping it just got missed…

Guys and Gals, I could use some help. I don’t now and have never lived in ATL (Georgia boy grew up south of Macon but have lived outside of GA my adult life - Rome, London, Boston, and Virginia for the last 15 years..) Go to a game whenever I’m in ATL but that’s usually one or two a year. (Did catch Chippers great game in DC against the Nationals last year!)

Anyway… Starting to ramble… I somehow convinced my wife that our anniversary is a great day to see a Braves game… ;-) I am going to be in Atlanta on April 9th and really want tickets to the game against the Mutts. I gather that single game tix don’t go onsale till March 1st. Is waiting till March 1st my only option? If so, is there anything I can do to make sure I get tix? I’m open to any and all suggestions. I want decent seats at a price that won’t bankrupt Ted Turner. Thanks for the help…

By DAP

February 8, 2007 06:30 PM | Link to this

i got here a little late to be in the thick of MVP convo, but i still wanna chime in real quick

its my opinion(which i know doesnt mean much) that all the stats should be considered, but the main factor in determining an MVP is who helped their team the most. this is why andruw should have won in ‘05. he carried our team full of rookies to the post season that year, while pujols, while he was awesome, was on a team with alot of great players that played well. andruw meant more to his team.

on the ‘06 MVP, im not sure about that one.

By The Grinch

February 8, 2007 06:36 PM | Link to this

Kayajack, waiting ‘till March 1st is the only thing I know to do; perhaps someone else can be more helpful.