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December 2006
Reitsma leaving, Kelly J. moving
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
At the risk of spoiling the New Year’s celebration for many of you, l’m going to cut to the chase and tell you that Chris Reitsma will not be returning to the Braves.
OK, stop the derisive applause.
This according to the beleaguered reliever’s agent, who told me Sunday that Atlanta wasn’t among the dozen teams that expressed interest in Reitsma after the Braves non-tendered him last month.
Agent Mike Paolercio said six teams have made “legitimate offers” for Reitsma, who posted an 8.68 ERA and .362 opponents’ average in 27 appearances before the All-Star break, then went on the DL and had season-ending elbow surgery.
He’s been throwing off a mound since September and plans to be at full strength for spring training. But the Braves, in probably the best move for all parties given Reitsma’s performance and fall from favor here, apparently decided to cut the cord.
GM John Schuerholz said three weeks ago, when arbitration-eligible Reitsma and Marcus Giles weren’t offered contracts, that the Braves might try to re-sign Reitsma to a lesser contract (he could’ve expected $2 million-plus through arbitration). Not happening.
“I have not heard from the Atlanta Braves whatsoever,” Paolerico said. “I’m assuming at this point they did not want to follow up on that.”
He said he’s well into negotiations with “several teams” including Cincinnati, where Reitsma was a setup man, closer and fan favorite before being traded to Atlanta before the 2004 season.
(Yes, he was a seriously popular pitcher in Cincy, much as Dan Kolb was in Milwaukee and Bob Wickman in Cleveland. Hey, at least one of them didn’t see his career fall to pieces in Atlanta.)
Reitsma had stints as closer with the Braves but eventually blew ‘em all. He converted just 25 of 45 save opportunities in three seasons for the Braves.
There were some rough times in his tenure with the team, none worse than the day Reitsma was walking with his young daughter in their Newnan neighborhood when a guy in a pickup truck rolled down his window and shouted “You suck!” to Reitsma.
On the field, his performance since the summer of 2005 did, for the most part. He never made excuses, but after the elbow surgery he confided that the condition caused periodic numbness in his pitching hand since the World Baseball Classic last fall (that damn Classic _ did anything good come of it?)
Anyway, to his credit, Reitsma didn’t use the elbow as an excuse for the 2005 season, when he was NL Rolaids Relief Man of the Month in July, then the source of much antacid consumption by fans and team officials the rest of the season.
Talk about your precipitous declines, consider this epic fall: After converting 9 of 9 saves while posting a 1.04 ERA and .153 opponents’ average in 17 appearances July 1-Aug. 6, 2005, Reitsma had a 7.68 ERA and .358 OA in his final 51 appearances for the Braves.
He went 1-6 and blew 9 of 17 saves in that awful stretch.
He was often booed at home, but struggled even more on the road, posting a hard-to-fathom 11.39 ERA and .430 opponents’ average in his final 21 road games for the Braves, with 46 hits and five homers surrendered in those 21-1/3 innings away from Turner Field.
So again, it’s probably good it’s over here. You turn the page and hope the story gets better.
While most of you never met him, let me go on record as saying Reitsma was about as decent and good a dude as I’ve ever met in 12 years covering baseball. I know that probably doesn’t mean a lot to you, because, as I said, he did stink for most of his final 12 months here.
But next time he visits Turner Field, it really wouldn’t hurt to give him a little polite applause. Or at least quiet indifference. At least don’t roll down your window and yell obscenities at him. If you guys ever got to meet him and talk to him, you’d know what I mean. Good dude.
OK, moving on….
Just got off the phone with Kelly Johnson for a story I’ll probably do in the next couple of days, about his ongoing work at second base.
Kelly’s really excited and hopeful about the opportunity he might get to play second base and perhaps bat leadoff, though he’s quite to point out that no one’s told him anything definitive about the team’s plans.
Still, barring a trade that seems less likely by the day, it appears the Braves will go to spring training with Johnson, Martin Prado and perhaps Willy Aybar competing for the second-base job (though the Braves still seem to want Aybar to play plenty at both second and third base, spelling Chipper Jones from time to time in an effort to keep the veteran healthy).
Johnson was a shortstop in high school and in the minor leagues until a week before the 2004 season, when the Braves moved him to the outfield because they had infielders and because he’d made 45 errors in one season at Macon. But others before him also made an alarming number of errors on that notorious Macon infield, including Chipper (56, yes 56, in 136 games in 1991) and Giles (25 in 1998).
Point is, Johnson probably wasn’t as bad an infielder as we thought. He’s been working with coach Glenn Hubbard two or three times a week this winter at Turner Field, turning double plays, fielding grounders, doing everything he can to get comfortable on the right side of the infield.
It’s worth noting, Hubbard was instrumental in helping transform Giles from a minor leaguer who the Braves didn’t think could play major-league quality defense to a darn good fielder.
Johnson said he’s really starting feel good at 2B, and his elbow hasn’t been a problem (he missed the 2005 season recovering from Tommy John surgery). He sound confident and ready for the challenge, if the Braves are serious about using him there.
“I’m not working out there just to be able to play second base,” he said, “I’m working out to be good over there.”
For those who might have forgotten, Johnson hit .241 with 24 extra-base hits (three triples, nine homers), 40 RBIs and a .334 OBP in 87 games (290 at-bats) as a rookie outfielder in 2005.
Called to the majors in late May, he went 2-for-34 with two singles and one RBI in his first 12 games, but Bobby Cox stayed with him, pointing out how much he loved Johnson’s “setup” at the plate and noting how many balls he was hitting hard right at people.
Johnson hit .344 with 12 extra-base hits (six homers) and 23 RBIs in the next 24 games, with 19 walks, a .455 OBP, a 1.068 OPS and an NL Player of the Week award in that blazing stretch.
As first-time rookies are wont to do, he then went into a 2-for-24 slump, hit .165 with one homer over his next 22 games, and lost playing time to roommate and fellow Texan Ryan Langerhans, who finished his own rookie season with a promising surge.
It got largely overlooked, but Johnson finished that 2005 season by hitting .282 with a .378 OBP and .840 OPS over his final 29 games.
The kid _ Johnson will be 25 in February _ can hit, no question about it.
And Johnson said he’s learned a lot being on the sidelines, after watching all of the 2006 season from the bench or on TV, after seeing Langerhans struggle and Brian McCann put together a splendid All-Star season and Jeff Francoeur deal with some adversity, etc.
Johnson knows he needs to be more aggressive at the plate than he was as a rookie, and so far he said he feels stronger during his offseason hitting sessions.
Contrary to some reports _ and speculation from yours truly _ he’s not oversized for second base. Johnson said he’s 6 feet 1 and 200 pounds, significantly smaller than the likes of Jeff Kent, Chase Utley and, yes, Wilson Betemit.
If nothing else, it should be interesting to watch this spring. If I had to bet right now, I’d say Johnson’s got a good shot at being the opening-day second baseman, something I admit sounded quite far-fetched when last season ended….
OK, had to share this with you: A late entry into the quote-of-the-year contest, though more subtle in its ridiculousness than riotously funny. It’s from Orioles 3B Melvin Mora, to the Baltimore Sun’s Jeff Zrebiec, after the O’s signed Aubrey Huff during the weekend:
“I am excited if we can sign him, Mora said. “I think [Huff] can put up the same numbers as a $70 million player. He can hit over 20 home runs, plus he can drive in 100. This is the perfect guy to hit behind Miggy [Miguel Tejada].”
Over 20 home runs, 100 RBIs = $70 million?
Oh, my. Don’t ever let anyone tell you that some baseball players are detached from the real word.
“If I Had Known” by Greg Brown
A little creek you could spit across/Jimmy and me each took one more toss/our spinners bright in the evening air/People always said,/ There ain’t no fish in there
Well grownups they ain’t always right/Jimmy and me walked home slow that night/right down Main Street in our P.F. Fliers/with two 5 lb. bass making grown men liars
Jimmy if I had known/I might have stopped fishing right then
It’s just as well we don’t know/when things will never be that good again…
A hayride on an Autumn night/Well we was 15 if I remember right/We were far apart at the start of the ride/but somehow we ended up side by side
We hit a bump and she grabbed my arm/The night was as cold as her lips were warm I shivered as her hand held mine/And then I kissed her one more time
And Jane if I had known/I might have stopped kissing right then
It’s just as well we don’t know/when things will never be that good again…
She was older than me I guess/Summer was invented for her to wear that dress/I knew about risk and she knew about proof/and that night she took me up on the roof
We could see the lights of the little towns/We could watch the August stars come down/Shooting stars, meteorites…/We went on a ride through the sky that night
And, oh, if I had known…/I’d do it all over again
Some things just get better and better/and better than they’ve already been
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Braves aren’t closed for business
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It’s traditionally a dead week in baseball, this week between Christmas and New Year, the industry’s slowest week bookended by the over-indulgent eating and drinking holidays.
But this whole offseason has been about over-indulgence of a different kind in baseball, what with the bloated free-agent contracts being gifted to some rather undistinguished pitchers and hitters by a bunch of anxious teams.
So maybe it’s appropriate that Big Unit trade rumors were rampant on Christmas Day, the Randy Johnson trade buzz signaling the start to a week that won’t be as slow for baseball as it’s been in the past.
The Braves could be involved, though their offices are closed and GM John Schuerholz is at his second home in Naples, Fla. He’s got the cell phone on and the laptop at the ready, believe it.
Schuerholz told me Tuesday that he even exchanged e-mails and phone calls with GMs on Christmas. And not to say Merry Christmas.
The Braves are still talking to teams, trying to add another quality arm and perhaps a leadoff man, but they’re not going to trade Adam LaRoche or anyone else unless it’s a deal they believe makes their team better — now.
“We’re still talking, still looking for moves we can make that make us stronger,” Schuerholz said. “But if we can’t [make any more] we think our team… it’s already stronger.”
He listed the reasons he believes that’s true: “Having a closer [Bob Wickman] from the start of season, and having a guy [Rafael Soriano] who’s one of the dominant setup men in the game setting up our closer is an advantage we didn’t have last year.
“Having a rotation anchored by John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, and now with Mike Hampton coming back…”
Schuerholz went on to mention Chuck James, who figures prominently in the Braves’ rotation plans, and Kyle Davies, who should have a spot if healthy.
He mentioned Tanyon Sturtze, the veteran reliever who should be ready by May. He mentioned Blaine Boyer and other relievers. He mentioned a lot of things in just a few minutes, as if he’s said this stuff a few times recently. He has.
Schuerholz has been getting calls from national writers, guys doing “state of the Braves” stories, guys wanting to know about Atlanta’s payroll or Andruw Jones or Adam LaRoche or blah blah blah.
Schuerholz doesn’t talk about possible personnel moves, of course, not until they’re already made or, in rare instances, when a move wasn’t made (like the Tom Glavine thing that ended unceremoniously a few weeks ago).
But he’s got the answers ready about the outlook for his team, and he says it with such conviction that you think he believes the Braves are going to contend.
Listening to him, I get a feeling the Braves might make another move or two, but also might not. I don’t get a feeling they’re working on a flurry of big moves, as some have suggested. Don’t get that feeling at all.
Schuerholz sounds like he’s comfortable enough to go to spring training with this team and see if he needs to add pieces then, rather than do another trade now just to do another trade. I get a sense that he’d trade Adam LaRoche, but not without a “wow” return.
“Our offense is going to be really good again, and we’re going to score a lot of runs again,” he said. “It’s a much more balanced team already than we had starting season last year.”
But enough baseball….
(NOTE: Non-music freaks, simply scroll down past this list to the part where you post or read the other folks’ posts. No need to read the music list and then tell me you wish I’d drop the music talk. Comprende?)
OK, here it is, 25 CDs released in 2006 that every music lover with eclectic, adventurous and excellent tastes should own, in my pompous opinion. In no certain order:
Tom Waits: “Orphans: Brawlers, Bawlers & Bastards”
M. Ward: “Post-War”
Bob Dylan: “Modern Times”
Johnny Cash: “American V: A Hundred Highways”
Clipse: “Hell Hath No Fury”
Arctic Monkeys: “Whatever People Say I Am, That’s What I’m Not”
Gram Parsons: “The Complete Reprise Sessions”
Neko Case: “Fox Confessor Brings the Flood”
The Thermals: “The Body, The Blood, The Machine”
The Coup: “Pick a Bigger Weapon”
Hank Williams III: “Straight to Hell”
TV on the Radio: “Return to Cookie Mountain”
Ghostface Killah: “Fishscale”
The Sadies: “In Concert, Vol. 1”
Josh Ritter: “The Animal Years”
Wilco: “Kicking Television”
Johnny Cash: “At San Quentin” (expanded box)
James McMurtry: “Childish Things”
Cat Power: “The Greatest”
The Raconteurs: “Broken Boy Soldiers”
Bruce Springsteen: “We Shall Overcome: The Seeger Sessions”
Joseph Arthur: “Nuclear Daydream”
Drive-By Truckers: “A Blessing and a Curse”
Kris Kristofferson: “This Old Road”
Sonic Youth: “Rather Ripped”
The Hold Steady: “Boys and Girls in America”
Plus two local-band gems:
Black Lips: “Let It Bloom
The Whigs: “Give ‘Em All a Fat Lip”
Feel free to provide your own list, be they top 5, 10, or whatever. We’ll do movies next week.
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Braves brass in bunker as rumors percolate
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Be thankful you’re in Atlanta and not here in Kansas City, where it’s 40-something degrees and raining. In other words, World Series weather.
Anyway, I’ll skip the rehashing, reshaping and regurgitating of the Adam LaRoche rumor-du-jour, since I’m not even sure what the rumor-du-jour is, or whether it can be narrowed down to one. Probably not.
Suffice to say, all along I’ve felt there was no way the Braves would do the supposed three-way trade with the Yanks and Pirates in the form that it was most frequently cited, with the Braves getting 22-yr-old OF Melky Cabrera, the Yankees getting lefty closer Mike Gonzalez, the Pirates getting LaRoche.
Made no sense, and I’ll stick with that assessment until the Braves prove otherwise. They wer once asking for Cabrera and Yankees setup stud Scott Proctor, and they’re going to settle for Cabrera all of a sudden. No way. Never was a way they’d do that without getting something more, especially since they’ve said all along that pitching is the priority.
Braves officials have been in serious bunker mode since returning from the winter meetings, probably because they wanted to get a deal done before the new year. I do know they’ve been on-again, off-again, but never kaput in talks with the Pirates, Devil Rays and Angels, and with Yankees as part of the Pirates thing (the Yankees really, really want Gonzalez).
But where they are right now, today, in any of those deals, I’m not certain. Not going to lie and say I am. They’d love to have Baldelli from Tampa Bay, but aren’t going to give up Chuck James. They’d love to have Figgins and Kotchman from Angels, but Braves want more, and they’re not going to get reliever Scot Sheld in addition to Figgins.
They’d love to have Cabrera from Yankees, but not JUST Cabrera. At the minimum, I’d guess they’d also have to get 2B Jose Castillo, but I don’t know if that’d be enough or even if the Pirates, who drive a very hard bargain, would be willing to part with Gonzalez and Castillo.
They’d love to have Brian Roberts from Baltimore, but I don’t think the Braves OR the Orioles wants to give up their guy in a straight one-to-one, Roberts for LaRoche. I still say a three-way with Tampa Bay, sending closer Chris Ray from Baltimore to the Devil Rays, Baldelli to the Braves, and LaRoche to the Orioles, makes the most sense, long as the Braves also get a pitcher, at least a top pitching prospect like Hayden Penn, in the deal.
I wouldn’t do it, still, but I think the Braves probably would, because Roberts fills the 2B/leaodoff role for couple years before he’s a free agent. Repeating, I wouldn’t do the deal. Also repeating, the Braves don’t care what I’d do. Or what you’d do, perhaps unfortunately.
(I say that because getting rid of both Giles and LaRoche … well, they’d better hope if they do that, it works out as a whole next season, or be prepared for the storm of second-guessing).
The past couple of years the Braves tried to get everything done by the start of the new year, be it for internal accounting reasons or just to make sure they weren’t left with holes to fill and few players left available in January.
But if they get a trade done by then this year, it’s either going to have to be in the next few days. That, or Braves officials will have take the highly unusual step _ unusual for most clubs and particularly for them _ of working in the week between Christmas and New Year’s, when most teams shut ‘er down.
Rather than accept what they view to be a bad deal, I think the Braves would probably prefer to stand pat and try to pick up a veteran lefty reliever off scrap heap when the free-agent dust has settled or via trade this winter.
And if they had to, I think they’d be comfortable enough with their 2B options at least to go to spring training and see if any of them stand out and appear ready to handle the job. If not, again, the Braves have been known to make trades late in spring to fill needs. They could have an extra starter to trade, plus they have a couple of prospects, and the prize trade chip that many teams are after _ LaRoche.
If they don’t trade LaRoche now, the Braves could do it in January or even wait until the spring, after they see how Scott Thorman looks at 1B in Grapefruit League games (though they’ve already seen him quite a bit, just not on a every-day basis), or after they see how Kelly Johnson looks at second and decide whether they can expect to get good production from that spot.
So many things can happen that if a trade doesn’t go down now, it doesn’t necessarily mean this is the team the Braves will have opening day.
And if it is pretty much their opening day team, I don’t think the Braves would be uncomfortable with it, given the expected improvements in the pitching staff with Bob Wickman in the fold already, and with the addition of setup man Rafael Soriano (most fans in the NL don’t realize just how dominant he has been).
OK, enough with potential trades in this post. Besides, the whole situation seems so fluid, with speculation rampant and the rumor mill grinding right up to Christmas, it appears. So we’ll just keep addressing them below, I’m sure.
Hey, on an unrelated matter, I think the career projection I got out of the Bill James Handbook probably got overlooked buried down in yesterday’s blog, so I’ll put ‘em here again. If you read them already, just skip, don’t complain. Tired of complainers.
Here’s what the stats guru James predicts for career numbers for some guys you might be interested in these days:
Adam LaRoche _ projected 1,992 career games, .262 average, 509 doubles, 351 HRs, 1,138 RBIs, .337 OBP, .449 slugging, .836 OPS.
Derrek Lee _ 2,312 games, .276 avg, 506 doubles, 421 HRs, 1.260 RBIs, .364 OBP, .499 slugging, .864 OPS.
Carlos Lee _ 2,323 games, .283 avg, 520 doubles, 433 HRs, 1,504 RBIs, .339, .494 slugging, .832 OPS.
Alfonso Soriano _ 2,024 games, .272 avg, 485 doubles, 428 HRs, 1,129 RBIs, .324 OBP, .502 slugging, .826 OPS.
Andruw Jones (hand on to your seats) _ 3,051 games, .259 avg, 571 doubles, 677 HRs, 2,009 RBIs, .344 OBP, .500 slugging, .844 OPS.
Chipper Jones _ 2,629 games, .296 avg, 567 doubles, 516 HRs, 1,753 RBIs, 1,606 walks w/ 1,609 K, .395 OBP, .525 slugging, .920 OPS.
Brian Roberts _ 2,066 games, .276 avg, 510 doubles, 123 HRs, 750 RBIs, 343 SBs, .344 OBP, .395 slugging, .740 OPS.
Marcus Giles _ 2,158 games, .276 avg, 551 doubles, 207 HRs, 917 RBIs, 148 SBs, .354 OBP, .427 slugging, .781 OPS.
Couple other quick things:
Unless I’m missing someone, only Houston’s Craig Biggio and the Braves’ John Smoltz and Chipper Jones have spent at least 13 seasons their original major-league team and are still with that team (and don’t say Detroit was Smoltz original major-league team, because he didn’t reach the majors until he was traded to the Braves)….
I’ve been among those harping on the Braves’ dysfunctional payroll, point out that nearly 80 percent of their $80 million was tied up in seven guys, including more than $36 million for just the Joneses and John Smoltz (including prorated portion of signing bonuses for Chipper and Smoltz).
Rare is the team that wins championships with such a large percentage of its payroll sucked up by so few guys. But guess who just did it? St. Louis. That’s right, the Cards had an approximate $88 mill payroll, of which $38 mill went to three players and $53 mill to five, topped by Albert Pujols’ $14 mill. So it can be done. But it ain’t easy….
I’m suddenly possessed of the Christmas spirit, so I offer more reasons _ more Cardinals-based reasons _ for Braves fans to believe: The Cardinals won only 83 games last season, and they won the World Series with a starting rotation that included ace Chris Carpenter and the likes of Jeff Suppan, Jeff Weaver and Anthony Reyes.
Oh, and a closer (former Braves prospect Adam Wainwright) who’d never been a closer until late September….
The Braves went 4-2 vs. the Cardinals last season, batting .351 and racking up 16 homers and 55 runs in those games. The losses went to John Thomson and Jason Shiell….
Just two more stats (I promise): Since the wild-card era began in 1995, only three teams have advanced to more than three LCS: Yankees (7), Cardinals (6) and Braves (6), though the Braves haven’t gone since 2001.
Those are also the only three teams who’ve had their current managers more than seven seasons _ Cox (17 years in current stint, 21 overall in two tours with Braves), LaRussa (11) and Torre (11).
LaRoche rumors just won’t stop
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Ah, yes, another 70-degree global-warming December day, another Adam LaRoche trade rumor.
Where there’s this much smoke _ the trade rumors, not the planet _ there’s usually fire, so don’t be too surprised if the Braves first baseman is traded before opening day.
That said, I’ve never put much stock in the three-way rumor that’s made its way through four or five New York papers in the past week, most recently appearing in today’s New York Times.
The proposal, according to an anonymous baseball official, would send LaRoche to the Pirates, lefty closer Mike Gonzalez from Pittsburgh to the Yankees, and 22-year-old outfielder Melky Cabrera from NY to the Braves.
Thing is, this supposed proposal hasn’t been confirmed by either an Atlanta or Pittsburgh official, on or off the record. A Pirates official told a buddy of mine that no such deal was imminent, and he doubted the Braves would do it in that form anyway.
A Braves person I talked to wouldn’t comment on it either way, neither confirm nor deny. But don’t read too much into that _ the Braves are involved in so many discussions this winter, the entire organization has gone into the bunker mentality that John Schuerholz prefers _ no comment, no comment, no comment.
For years, the Yankees have been notorious for leaking information about deals, always anonymous team officials. Sometimes there’s validity, but I’d guess that at least 75 percent of the trade rumors out of New York never come to fruition.
And in this instance, I can’t see the Braves doing this deal without getting something else in return. This isn’t a knock on Cabrera, who would be a great addition for the Braves and could fill a glaring weakness in the leadoff spot.
Of course, this would greatly reduce the playing time of LF Matt Diaz, who would revert to fourth-outfielder status. That or be traded, if the Braves decided they wanted to keep Ryan Langerhans because of his excellent defense, perhaps figuring that Langerhans just had a bad year at the plate in part because of a sore hand that contributed to his early struggles.
(Here’s an idea _ keep LaRoche, hit Aybar leadoff while he plays 2B or 3B most days, or sign a veteran 2B off the scrap heap this spring if Kelly Johnson or one of the other kids doesn’t look up for regular 2B work. Maybe give rookie OF Gregor Blanco at least a look in the leadoff spot this spring; who knows, he has no power but a plus-.400 OBP in the minors last season could be worth considering, long as you keep LaRoche and have such good power at other spots.)
The other rumor making the rounds is a revival of the LaRoche-to-Baltimore talks that nearly culminated in a LaRoche/Marcus Giles for Brian Roberts/Hayden Penn deal at the winter meetings, before O’s owner Peter Angelos quashed it at the last minute when he decided he didn’t want to part with fan favorite 2B Roberts.
Giles, of course, was non-tendered a week later by the Braves and appears likely to sign with San Diego, as was expected as soon as the Braves let him become a free agent. The revived LaRoche/O’s rumor is a straight-up LaRoche-for-Roberts proposal.
While it seems like the Braves would be giving up too much for Roberts, I can see where they’d do this deal and what their rationale would be: They’re more comfortable with Thorman replacing LaRoche at 1B than they are with their 2B/leadoff positions, where they have no proven commodities at either spot. Roberts would fill both of those needs.
His production was down last season (.286, 34 doubles, 10 homers, 55 RBIs, .757 OPS in 131 games) after he returned from arm surgery. Roberts, 29, was an All-Star in 2005 when he hit .314 with 45 doubles, 7 triples, 18 homers, 73 RBIs and a strong .387 OBP and .902 OPS.
He made $3.075 mill last season in his first year of arbitration eligibility, and could see his salary climb to near $5 mill in 2007. So he’d cost nearly $2 mill more than LaRoche next season, and be eligible for free agency after 2008, a year sooner than LaRoche.
Again, if the Braves do it, it’ll be to solve their 2B/leadoff voids at the same time.
Now back to Cabrera. The Yankees switch-hitter came through last year on the big NY stage, filling in for the injury-plagued Yankees OF and batting .280 with 35 extra-base hits (seven homers), 50 RBIs, 12 steals and a .360 OBP in 130 games.
He had comparable stats vs. lefties and righties, and hit .281 with runners on and .305 with runners in scoring position.
Cabrera was especially solid as a leadoff man, batting .333 (25-for-75) with eight extra-base hits, a .405 OBP and a .467 slugging percentage (his overall slugging percentage was .391).
In other words, he’s got a lot of promise, and also could move over to CF if and when Andruw leaves. He’s got a very good arm (he throws left-handed, bats both) and overall sound defensive skills.
That said, LaRoche-for-Cabrera straigt-up isn’t a good trade for Atlanta, in my opinion.
LaRoche is first-time arbitration-eligible. He’ll make $2.5-3 mill and, based on his improvement from his first full season in 2005 (.259-20-78, .775 OPS) to his second full season in 2006 (.285-32-90, .915 OPS), there’s no reason to believe he can’t hit 35-40 homers and drive in 100-110 runs.
He drove in 90 while hitting sixth or lower in the order much of the season, and his performance improved dramatically in late June, exactly when he began playing against left-handers and also when he began taking prescribed medication for attention-deficit disorder (same medication that Craig Biggio, Derek Lowe and others have taken or are taking).
Beginning July 17, LaRoche hit .322 with 17 homers, 43 RBIs, a .388 OBP and a gaudy 1.033 OPS over his final 63 games, with ONE error in that span.
Might LaRoche regress and lose some trade value? Sure. But the same could be said for any young players. The point is, there’s little in his performance to suggest he will.
And as much as Cabrera would fill a need atop the order and potentially in CF beyond next season, the Braves should be able to get something else, in addition to Cabrera, for a guy (LaRoche) who ranked 10th in the NL in OPS last season.
They were asking for setup man Scott Proctor and Cabrera earlier, and now they’re going to settle for Cabrera? No. That doesn’t compute.
An argument could be made that the Braves would be better off trading LaRoche straight-up to Pittsburgh for Gonzalez, who converted 24 of 24 saves and would give them more security in their bullpen and, along with recently acquired power arm Rafael Soriano, afford the Braves two closers-in-waiting to set up Bob Wickman next year and spell him when necessary.
But I wouldn’t do that deal, either. Again, I think they should get more in return for LaRoche, who got a lot of Gold Glove votes for his defense, and whose tape-measure homers aren’t the result of huge muscles _ no steroid suspicions there, if you’ve ever seen him up close _ but rather an astoundingly quick bat (according to Bobby Cox and Terry Pendleton _ that springs out from an unlikely, impossibly quiet stance.
Anyway … sure, trade him if you can use it to fill needs. But that’s plural _ needs. As in, perhaps, Chone Figgins, Casey Kotchman and a pitcher from the Angels.
But even if it were just Figgins and Kotchman, at least you’d be getting an extremely versatile player (Figgins) under contract an an affordable rate for two more years, who can play second base and bat leadoff next year, or play 4-5 different positions and bat leadoff if one of the kids is ready for 2B).
And you’d get Kotchman, who was a highly touted prospect before his mono and lingering effects forced him to miss most of last season. He’s a line-drive gap hitter and would give you some insurance at 1B if the Braves replace LaRoche with Scott Thorman.
Thorman, 25, plays hard at all times and has natural power, but he’s just a serviceable defensive player and Cox plans to use him a lot in LF in 2007 if LaRoche is back.
Thorman hit more than 16 homers only once in five minor league seasons (21 was his high) and batted .234 with five homers and 14 RBIs in 128 at-bats last season as a Braves rookie. In his last 33 games for Atlanta, he hit .209 (14-for-67) with one homer, four RBIs, two walks and 15 strikeouts.
He’s still raw, and would be a significant dropoff from LaRoche in every respect, at least for his first season. No question about that. But if the Braves also had Kotchman, between the two of them they’d at least have some insurance.
Again, trading LaRoche, after already losing Giles, isn’t something I’d do without filling a couple of needs with what you get in return. And while the Braves scored more than enough runs and had more than enough power last season, without LaRoche and Giles you’d be counting heavily on Francoeur, McCann and possibly the 22-year-old Cabrera to avoid any setbacks and produce like veterans.
That is, unless you believe Chipper can stay healthy for 150 games and Thorman will make huge progress in his first full season, and one of rookies or converted outfielder Kelly Johnson will shine at second base….
OK, enough about that trade rumor, for now at least.
Couple other things.
Listening to the great Tom Waits (new three-CD set “Orphans” is spectactular) while glancing through the information-filled Bill James Handbook _ and if you guys want to buy ONE baseball reference book, this is definitely the one.
It’s always fun to peruse his projections for hitters and pitchers for the following season, however the stats maven James _ and my former Univ. of Kansas professor, of Baseball Literature (though technically I only monitored the class for a couple weeks before realizing no opening was going to come up and I wasn’t going to get credit if I kept attending, so I left) _ comes up with the numbers.
(What a terrible run-on sentence that was. No time to clean it up. Gotta hop on the Triumph, day’s getting away from me.)
Last season, for instance, James projected that Andruw Jones would hit .269 with 32 doubles, 42 homers, 113 RBIs and 126 strikeouts.
Andruw’s’s actual numbers: .262 with 29 doubles, 41 homers, 129 RBIs and 127 K. Not bad.
James projected that Rafael Furcal would hit .285 with 32 doubles, 13 homers, 58 RBIs and 37 steals. He hit .300 with 32 doubles, 15 HRs, 63 RBIs, 37 steals.
But he also misses badly on some guys, of course. So don’t get too caught up in it.
Anyway, here’s a few 2007 projections I thought you might be interested in.
SOME PITCHERS:
_ Tim Hudson: 15-10, 3.75 ERA, 147 K in 223 innings.
_ John Smoltz: 18-7, 3.17 ERA, 200 K in 227 innings.
_ Mike Hampton: 7-7, 4.50 ERA, 71 K in 130 innings.
_ Chuck James: 13-7, 3.53 ERA, 164 K in 186 innings.
_ Horacio Ramirez: 7-7, 4.53 ERA, 63 K in 133 innings.
_ Kyle Davies: 3-4, 4.86 ERA, 51 K and 33 walks in 63 innings.
_ Bob Wickman: 4-3, 3.77 ERA, 41 saves, 50 K in 62 innings.
AND SOME HITTERS:
_ Francoeur: .276 avg. w/ 34 doubles, 31 HRs, 111 RBIs, 27 walks, 123 K, .314 OBP, .803 OPS.
_ McCann: .315 with 33 doubles, 23 HRs, 87 RBIs, .383 OBP, .928 OPS (Damn!).
_ LaRoche: .281 with 39 doubles, 29 HRs, 89 RBIs, .353 OBP, .883 OPS.
_ Andruw: .264 with 32 doubles, 40 HRs, 115 RBIs, 131 K, .355 OBP, .882 OPS.
_ Chipper: 133 games, .293 with 30 doubles, 27 HRs, 90 RBIs, .398 OBP, .925 OPS.
_ M. Giles: .281 with 35 doubles, 15 HRs, 95 runs, 66 RBIs, .351 OBP, .797 OPS.
_ M. Diaz: 110 games, .316 with 25 doubles, 10 HRs, 49 RBIs, .355 OBP, .846 OPS
_ C. Figgins: .281, 25 doubles, 8 HRs, 60 RBIs, .348 OBP, .739 OPS.
_ Me. Cabrera: 130 games, .285, 24 doubles, 10 homers, 69 runs, 60 RBIs, .351 OBP, .762 OPS.
_ Baldelli: 123 games, .306, 29 doubles, 5 triples, 16 homers, 68 RBIs, .348 OBP, .883 OPS.
_ C. Crawford: .300, 26 doubles, 14 triples, 15 HRs, 55 stolen bases, 100 runs, 76 RBIs, .339 OBP, .795 OPS.
(Maybe the Braves should go after this Crawford dude … Inside joke here among Braves/Man in Black blog denizens. I couldn’t resist).
Some miss the point on Giles exit
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
If this wasn’t abundantly clear to everyone before Tuesday _ and apparently it wasn’t _ then it should be now: The Braves have a dysfunctional payroll, but it’s also a very real payroll with an $80 million limit they’re adhering to.
I say this because it surprised me to hear how many folks were shocked _ SHOCKED_ that the Braves non-tendered Marcus Giles. The reaction surprised me not just because I had written several times beforehand that it was likely to happen and tried to explain why, but also because it follows a pattern of recent Braves moves.
You could say it started four years ago with Atlanta feeling forced to trade then-borderline ace Kevin Millwood for then-backup catcher Johnny Estrada after Greg Maddux surprised the Braves by accepting arbitration offer. Had to clear up payroll room.
That was the first year of the Braves’ slashed payroll, the first year that money became such an overriding factor in most of their personnel decisions.
In subsequent seasons, the Braves (and forgive me if I miss a few moves here):
_ Declined to make Maddux an offer to stay because they said they couldn’t make a competitive proposal.
_ Failed to keep Gary Sheffield when out-bid by the Yankees.
_ Failed to keep closer Kyle Farnsworth a year ago when out-bid by the Yankees.
_ Failed to sign a replacement closer a year ago when out-bid for every free agent they pursued, from Trevor Hoffman to Todd Jones.
_ Failed to resign shortstop Rafael Furcal when out-bid by the Dodgers.
_ Failed to acquire a leadoff hitter to replace Furcal.
_ Failed to make an offer to Tom Glavine two weeks ago after the veteran had expressed for weeks a desire to return to Atlanta at a potential “hometown discount.” Braves said they wanted him back but couldn’t clear up enough payroll in time to make an offer.
And now they’ve said goodbye to Giles, a decision based on financial concerns more than performance _ although even the most ardent fans of Giles must concede that his 2004-06 performance fell short, often far short, of his 2003 All-Star year.
But when I hear fans and radio hosts and plenty of other folks say that Giles’ $5.5 million projected salary (if the Braves had kept him) was very reasonable for a player with his production … they’re missing the point.
Of course $5.5 mill isn’t unreasonable in this exploding market for a guy who might hit 40 doubles, 15-20 homers, play hard and fearlessly, etc. Who said it was?
But that point is almost irrelevant in this instance.
Put simply, the Braves had to decide whether the $5-6 mill for Giles would be better spent in another area, because with him on the payroll they had no money to add more pitching or a leadoff guy, probably not even enough money to give the small raises owed to all their non-arbitration young players (McCann, Francoeur, et al).
The Giles move, and several others before it, are the kind of decisions that occur when you have an $80 million payroll with about 80 percent going seven players next season. As I’ve said, you can field a contender with an $80 mill payroll; the Cardinals and Tigers were barely over that amount last season.
But it’s extremely tough to field a contender when so much of your limited payroll is going to a small number of players. This isn’t John Schuerholz’s fault. He’s making the moves that he feels are necessary to come in at $80 mill and still have the best team possible.
In the old days _ a mere half-decade ago _ the Braves had a $100 mill payroll that was nearly the equal of the Yankees. They could pursue free agents and would never have felt forced to give up players a year before free agency.
Now they have a payroll that’s barely one-third of the Yankees’ over-$200 mill monstrosity.
And unless and until current ownership or possible new ownership raises that by, say, $10 mill at least, the Braves are going to face situations like this, where they have to shed reasonably priced players, sometimes popular players.
Now, to some other matters….
The dust will probably have to settle on non-tendered players before we get movement on trade fronts. But Schuerholz made it clear to me yesterday that the Braves aren’t done making moves, or trying to.
They still want to add a lefty reliever _ Pittsburgh’s Mike Gonzalez would be the ultimate addition in that regard _ and they’d like to add a leadoff guy.
The perfect fit atop the order would be Rocco Baldelli, the Tampa Bay outfielder who could hit leadoff and play left, then move to center if and when Andruw Jones leaves. Baldelli _ and this is huge, for above outlined reasons _ will make only $750,000 in 2007 and a maximum of $26 mill over the next five seasons if a team exercises his two option years.
But if the Devil Rays demand lefty Chuck James in any deal for Baldelli, if they won’t accept Kyle Davies and one or both of Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Yunel Escobar, then I don’t see the Braves getting Baldelli.
I just can’t see them parting with James, a potential top-of-the-rotation starter who’s cheap for two more seasons and affordable for at least the next three or four seasons. Teams don’t trade talented young starters without injury problems (unless it’s the Mets with Kasmir).
The Braves would probably have to part with 1B Adam LaRoche in any deal for Angels utility man Chone Figgins and Angels first-base prospect Casey Kotchman, but if the Braves could get a decent pitcher along with them, perhaps in an expanded deal, I think they’d do it.
While they’d like to keep LaRoche, the Braves know that the affordable Figgins could fill the second-base void and hit leadoff for the next two years at a relative bargain price, and they’re confident enough in Thorman to believe he might hit 15-20 homers and play serviceable defense _ not LaRoche by a long shot, but serviceable. And Kotchman, remember, was a damn good prospect before his mono and related problems sidetracked him last year.
Other rumors, some with validity, are out there, but there’s so many that it’s impossible to address them all here. Stay tuned, because something will happen, I’m fairly certain.
The Braves, despite what some might believe following the Giles move, aren’t waving a white flag. Actually, they’re determined to get back in the postseason next year. Not at the expense of entirely mortgaging the future by trading away every prospect in the organization, but they are determined to win in 2007 and will trade some prospects to help make it happen….
The Braves may try to resign non-tendered free agent reliever Chris Reitsma, but only at a significantly lower salary than the $2.75 mill he made in 2007. He’s coming back from elbow surgery and should be ready this spring, and several low-payroll teams including the Marlins, Devil Rays and Royals may have interest. Wouldn’t surprise me if he gets a call from the Reds, where Reitsma was one of the most popular players on the team before being traded….
Great line from by friend and former Sun-Sentinel colleague Jeff Miller, now an Orange County Register columnist: “For $50 million, the Angels should have received Gary Matthews Jr. and Gary Matthews Sr.”
In the past, Miller dubbed Angels GM Bill Stoneman “Stone Man” and “Stoned, Man” because of his “his mystifying lack of ability and/or creativity to broker a trade.”…
A certain regular here on the Braves/Man In Black blog might spit up his grits when he reads this. On the “The Meck’s” radio show over in ‘Bama, respected USA Today baseball writer Bob Nightengale said, ” Bobby Cox is the greatest manager in baseball history. “…
Add Houston to the list of potential Andruw Jones suitors next winter, after the Astros traded center fielder Willy Taveras to Colorado in the Jason Jennings deal yesterday. They’ll probably go with Chris Burke in center next season in Houston, where Andruw could hit, without exaggerating, at least 55 homers with that ridiculously short porch in left field.
I can count at least three other deep-pockets teams in warm-weather cities that might need a power-hitting CF next winter: Texas (they just signed Kenny Lofton for one year as a stopgap), Anaheim (Gary Matthews Jr. is signed for $50 mill over five years, but can be moved to LF), and the Dodgers (Juan Pierre? Slide over, son).
Easy to envision Andruw in one of those four places, with a multi-year deal worth $17 mill-$20 mill annually. Unless _UNLESS _ Andruw once again does the end-around and negotiates an extension with the Braves without Boras.
But I can’t really see that happening _ the sans-Boras part. He’s already assured Boras that he’ll let him negotiate the deal, but Andruw reminds that ultimately it’s up to him to decide what he wants to do.
Still, unless the Braves jack up their payroll significantly, it’s hard to see them going to well over $15 mill in a five-year proposal for Andruw. Not when they’ve been handcuffed for several years now by so much of their payroll being sucked up by a handful of guys….
Those bringing up the Wilson Betemit trade again, in light of Giles’ exit, let me remind: The Braves _ and this is them, not me, saying this _ did NOT see Betemit as a viable starting second-base candidate. Again, that’s them. Whether right or wrong, they didn’t consider him a second baseman, but a left-side infield guy….
And Willy Aybar, the guy they got in the Betemit deal (along with now-gone reliever Danys Baez), is penciled in as a utility man who’ll play 2B and 3B, possibly some OF in a pinch. They have Aybar planned to not only fill in for Chipper during any injury stints but also probably spelling him for more rests this year as the Braves try to find a way to keep Jones healthy….
Since some may have missed this when I posted it deep in the blog reponses yesterday, let me repeat it here: FSN South is negotiating with ESPN’s Jon Sciambi to be one of its Braves broadcasters next season.
I’ve known “Boog” (his nickname, for the Boog Powell resemblance) since he was starting his career in radio in South Florida. He knows his baseball. He did Marlins games before getting gig with ESPN couple years back. Great radio voice, not overbearing, easy on the ears.
Don’t know who he’ll replace if hired, or what configuration they’re planning in the booth, but I do know they’re talking to him about being a primary guy on their broadcast team….
And finally, did you see that the Giants signed old friend Damian Moss? The Aussie lefty and former Brave completes a circle of sorts, since he went from the Braves to the Giants in the 2002 trade for Russ Ortiz. Moss, by the way, was 0-5 with a 7.67 ERA for an independent Long Island team last year, after the Braves had re-signed him and quickly dumped him in the spring.
Braves bid Giles adieu
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Marcus Giles’ 10-year association with the Braves ended Tuesday when the team didn’t offer the second baseman a contract, thanks to payroll limitations. He now becomes a non-tendered free agent and will likely play for another team in 2007. Giles made $3.85 million last season and had his worst full season, batting .262 with 11 home runs, 60 RBIs, a .341 on-base percentage and a career-low .387 slugging percentage. What are the offensive/defensive repercussions of letting Giles go? And was it the right move for Atlanta?
Braves face Tuesday deadline
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
While the rumor-an-hour mill continues grinding, the Braves face a very real decision Tuesday that’s probably already been made and may well offend a significant segment of their fan base.
Marcus Giles fans, of which there are plenty, have a difficult time understanding why the Braves might actually non-tender the plucky second baseman. Tuesday is the deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players or make them free agents eligible to sign with any team. (Take poll at bottom.)
If they non-tender Giles, a 2003 All-Star whose production has since slipped steadily, the Braves will get nothing in the way of compensation from any team that signs him. And folks, barring a late trade, it does appear the Braves are going to non-tender him.
They’ll also probably non-tender reliever Chris Reitsma, with only first baseman Adam LaRoche and right-hander Oscar Villarreal likely to tendered among aribitration-eligibles. They could always re-sign Reitsma to lesser contract as he makes his comeback from elbow surgery, but a change of scenery might be appealing for a guy who’s not been well-received by some Braves fans (to say the least).
Before I go any further about Giles, let me relate a conversation I had with an American League scout this afternoon, one who is both quite familiar with Tampa Bay’s needs, and one who was just in the Dominican scouting winter ball.
First, he told me the Devil Rays would do the Rocco Baldelli-to-Braves deal in a heartbeat for shortstop Yunel Escobar and a certain starting pitcher. But that pitcher ain’t Kyle Davies. It’s Chuck James. They’re drooling over him.
But I don’t see the Braves giving up James, and don’t think they should, for what it’s worth (again, Braves haven’t asked my opinion on this matter, but I’m ready by the phone should they call).
The D-Rays love James’ major league track record - it’s less than one season, but impressive - and believe Davies’ health is too much a question mark. But they do like Escobar a lot and would like him to be their future shortstop.
They could use catching prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia - also being discussed in a potential deal for Baldelli - to flip for a starting pitcher, but again that’s not as definite as getting one in hand. Anyway, this scout seemed to believe the team that gets Baldelli will have to give up a good starter.
OK, about the Dominican winter league. This guy was just there and saw a relief pitcher who he’s seen thrown 95-96 mph in the past top out at only 91 mph in the D.R.
He said the guy looked like he was searching, like he had no answers. He felt bad for him, the scout said. And he also said another scout saw this pitcher make a start the week before and not get out of the first inning.
Now, I don’t know if maybe these two guys each saw Rafael Soriano on a bad day, but it would at least explain a little bit why Seattle was willing to trade him to the Braves for injury-plagued lefty Horacio Ramirez.
As this scout told me, Soriano is “the best” setup man in baseball when he’s healthy, but the guy told me other scouts were theorizing that he hasn’t bounced back from being drilled by the Vladimir Guerrero line drive on Aug. 29.
Soriano had headaches and dizziness in September, which is why the Mariners didn’t pitch him again in the regular season after that frightful incident, which left him with a concussion and one night in intensive care.
The Braves obviously scouted Soriano in the D.R. this winter, and John Schuerholz said their reports were solid. So I have nothing to go on except what the Braves said and this other scout told me.
My bet is that Soriano is just getting his legs back under him and still shaking out the cobwebs from a horrifying incident. I certainly would have made the deal, if I were the Braves and was satisfied with what I saw in the D.R.
There’s no reason the beaning would affect his arm, obviously. So there’s no reason to think he won’t be back to what he was last season before the incident (he had bounced back from a July DL stint for a sore shoulder and was throwing with his usual effectiveness before getting drilled by Vlad).
But it does at least offer another side, or reason, to why the Mariners would be so desparate for a starter that they’d trade one of baseball’s best relievers for a lefty starter who hasn’t had a healthy season since 2003.
OK, on to Giles. The Braves weren’t able to complete a trade at last week’s winter meetings, where interest in Giles alone was tepid, at best. The Braves would’ve had to package him with another player to get a significant return, which is why they were willing to include him with Adam LaRoche in a proposal for Baltimore 2B Brian Roberts and pitching prospect Hayden Penn.
That deal was agreed upon and ready to be finalized before Orioles owner Peter Angelos killed it. Angelos didn’t want to give up Roberts, his team’s most popular player, even though the O’s would have “won” the trade in the eyes of most observers, since LaRoche is the best player in that deal, period.
Though Giles’ stats are comparable to Roberts’ numbers, there are less concerns about Roberts and the O’s believe his peak years are ahead of him. The same can’t be said for Giles, in the view of most.
A trade for Giles before Tuesday seems highly unlikely, because any interest team could wait to see if he’s non-tendered, them probably sign Giles for less than $6 mill - maybe a LOT less - and without giving up anything in a trade.
If the Braves non-tender him, it will be a financial decision based on Giles’ declined production and rising salary, which would be close to $6 million if the Braves tender him a contract. He’s a fifth-year arbitration-eligible player who’ll be eligible for free agency after the 2007 season.
While the Braves don’t have a candidate they’re certain can step in and fill the void with solid defense and offense in 2007, they seem willing to go with what they have - Martin Prado? Kelly Johnson? - or try to sign someone cheap this spring if it’s clear neither of them is ready.
As they showed in the Tom Glavine failed “negotiations,” the Braves aren’t willing to extend themselves beyond their payroll limit, even if they don’t actually start paying salaries until the spring. In other words, much as some outside the organization - i.e., fans - won’t understand why they can’t be over $80 million now and just assume they can get it straightened out before they start writing the checks, the Braves won’t do it.
They lost Glavine - they insist they wanted him - because they wouldn’t even tell him informally, “Hey, Tom, we can pay you $7 mill (or whatever) if we’re able to trade this guy and that guy to free up payroll.” They wouldn’t tell him any figure, and John Schuerholz told me they simply couldn’t engage in negotiations until they had the payroll cleared.
So they’re not going to do it with Giles, if they’ve decided that his salary must go (and I don’t know that they have, but that’s the general feeling I get from talking to people on the periphery of this matter).
Listen, much as a lot of folks love Giles’ scrappy style, the fact of the matter is that he’s gone from being one of the three or four most productive offensive second baseman in the majors to being closer to the middle, plagued by injuries and declining power at an age (28) when he should be in his prime.
Giles hit .316 with 49 doubles, 21 homers and a whopping .916 OPS … in 2003.
Yes, four seasons ago.
His average has slipped each year since, to .311, .291 and last season’s .262, which matched his career-low set in his 2001 rookie year.
His OPS has slipped from .916 to .821, .826, and last year’s .728.
His slugging percentage has dropped from .526 in 2003 to .443, .461, and last year’s career-worst .387, 43 points below his rookie slugging percentage.
His on-base percentage has slipped from .390 in 2003 to .378, .365, and last year’s .341.
He was never a big stolen-base guy, but even that’s dropped from 17 in 21 attempts in 2004, to 16 in 19 attempts in 2005, to last year 10 steals in 15 attempts.
And after striking out 80 times in 2003 and 70 times in 2004, he’s whiffed 108 and 105 times in the past two seasons.
If the Braves weren’t strapped for cash, perhaps they’d be willing to gamble that a healthy Giles could rebound and have a stellar year. Maybe. But they are strapped for cash.
[an error occurred while processing this directive]Should Braves swap prospects for Baldelli?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Baseball scouts and general managers will tell you that sometimes the best trade is the one you don’t make.
I think we have a classic example from this past week’s Braves trade that didn’t happen, when Baltimore balked after preliminarily agreeing to a deal that would have sent Orioles 2B Brian Roberts and pitching prospect Hayden Penn to Atlanta for Adam LaRoche and Marcus Giles. Yes, LaRoche AND Giles.
Before we delve into the newest buzz, the Rocco Baldelli-to-Braves trade talks that could produce a very significant deal involving Atlanta’s top two position-player prospects _ Salty and Escobar _ and perhaps a pitcher such as Kyle Davies, let’s look back to Lake Buena Vista.
It almost happened. Until tonight, I didn’t believe it. I figured the Orioles were telling people about the offer and leaving some crucial element out, or saying they backed out when it was actually the Braves who came to their senses.
But tonight someone who knows told me, and I believe it. Absolutely believe it.
So I was wrong. The Braves wanted to do the deal at the winter meetings and the Orioles indeed pulled out of it after first agreeing to it, all because owner Peter Angelos is apparently so smitten with fan-favorite Roberts, whose stats are similar to Giles’ stats, and because he’s concerned about the steady erosion of B-more’s fan base and wants to stop the slide.
The Braves should consider themselves fortunate that Angelos is a meddler. Really. He may have saved them from dealing away a young 1B who could produce a 40-homer, 100-RBI man next year and compete for a Gold Glove.
With Roberts and Giles being similar _ except Roberts has and would bat leadoff without reluctance _ the deal would’ve amounted to LaRoche for Penn, right?
Penn’s a right-hander whose major league stats _ 3-6, 9.31 ERA in 14 starts _ are worse than those lugged by Davies, who, you may recall, has struggled a bit in the bigs.
The Braves wanted to do the deal because it’s a deal they knew they didn’t believe they’d be able to do two years from now, meaning when Penn is a hot young starting pitcher in the majors. They (Braves) believe that strongly in his ability and future.
Last year in Triple-A, Penn was 7-4 with a sparkling 2.26 ERA, 85 strikeouts and only 27 walks and 71 hits allowed in 87-2/3 innings, with two complete games in 14 starts.
There’s no question he’s got a lot of talent, and he’s only 22. But to give up LaRoche in that deal _ well, seemed to me that it was a bit much. Then again, there’s a reason I’m doing what I do and Schuerholz and Co. do what they do.
Anyway, Angelos stepped in and killed it for all the wrong reasons _ to appease his fans and because he personally likes Roberts’ scrappy play. But in the end, I’ve got a feeling the Braves will be pleased he did step in.
And part of the reason I’ve got that feeling is Baldelli, who the Braves might get if they want him bad enough. Repeat, MIGHT GET. The Devil Rays are talking to several other teams about Baldelli, including the White Sox and Team Angelos. It’s not just the Braves in this thing.
If the Braves could land him, they’d add a dynamic offensive performer who’s extremely affordable for the next 2-5 years, who can give them an immediate upgrade in left-field production, immediate upgrade from the leadoff position, and possibly move to center field if Andruw Jones leaves after next season as a free agent.
And did we say affordable? D-Rays bought out couple of years of his free agency with a multi-year contract that showed vision and now looks even more astute on their part (Braves, perhaps you’ll think of approaching McCann and Francoeur with such an offer? Maybe?)
Anyway, the Baldelli contract was worth a maximum of $32 mill over six years, and now after he made $2 mill last year and didn’t hit plate-appearance incentives (he was on the DL until early summer), he can make a maximum of $26 million over the next five seasons, and that’s only if he hits that 600-PA incentive and if three options are exercised for 2009-2011.
He’ll make just $750,000 next year, then $2.25 million in ‘08 ($4 mill if he gets 600 PAs in ‘07). Then there’s a $6 mill option for 2009 with a $4 mill buyout, then options of $8 mill for 2010 and $9 mill for 2011 (those two must be exercised together) with a $2 mill buyout.
In this absurd free-agent market, those are prices for a mediocre player. And he’s not mediocre.
He’s not going to hit 40-50 homers like Andruw, but he’s going to hit for a higher average, steal bases, rack up doubles and give you perhaps 20-25 homers, maybe more eventually.
He’s 25, with a cool name and a solid all-around game that could reach a higher level if he’d only stay healthy a full season. Baldelli has a .289 average with 83 doubles, 17 triples, 43 homers and 209 RBIs in 384 games _ though it’s taken him four years to do it.
After a strong rookie season in 2003 _ .289 average, 51 extra-base hits (11 homers), 78 RBIs, 27 SBs _ his ‘04 season was shortened by surgery for a torn anterior cruciate ligament, then he hurt his elbow while he was out and needed “Tommy John” surgery.
After missing the 2005 season and part of ‘06 recovering from surgeries, Baldelli returned to bat .302 with 24 doubles, six triplesm, 16 homers, 57 RBIs and a career-high .533 slugging percentage in 92 games last season.
His speed wasn’t all the way back _ 10 steals in 11 attempts _ but he was healthy and aggressive. He plays the game hard, plays it right, all the clichés. Good player. Real good.
His .329 career on-base percentage might scare some, especially for a guy who might hit leadoff. But look deeper and you’ll find that Baldelli has a robust .335 average with a .366 OBP and robust .639 slugging percentage in 191 at-bats as a leadoff man _ all but eight of those at-bats coming last season.
The guy hit .339 with a stunning 1.018 OPS as a leadoff man last season, racking up 31 extra-base hits (11 homers) in 183 at-bats _ which makes it a lot easier to overlook his 34 strikeouts/6 walks batting No. 1.
Apparently, he’s one of those who like hitting in the leadoff role. Humm.
Giving up catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and shortstop Yunel Escobar, plus perhaps another pitcher _ the D-Rays want Chuck James, but won’t get him _ might be difficult to stomach, particularly Salty. Big, sweet-swinging switch-hitting catchers don’t come along often.
But given that you have one of the two best young catchers in the game in McCann, who’ll be a fixture for years to come, and given that you have plenty of middle-infield depth and a current shortstop with an affordable contract for two more years … I’d do it.
Yes, even though trading Davies, who might reasonably be expected to develop into a solid top-of-the-rotation starter, leaves you a bit thin in rotation candidates if Mike Hampton has any problems coming back from T.J. surgery.
I’d still do it. Because Baldelli is a good hitter who gives you insurance if Andruw leaves, and replaces Giles’ production this year if the Braves trade or non-tender the second baseman. Whoever fills in for Giles _ prospects, Kelly Johnson, whoever _ might give you similar production to what you got from left field last year, and Baldelli should give you more than you got from Giles.
And did I mention he likes hitting leadoff?
What do you guys think? If the D-Rays will do it, should the Braves pull the trigger?
But don’t get too excited just yet, because as I said, the Braves are just one of at least 3-4 teams the D-Rays are talking to, and it might take a while before they feel like they have the best offer they can get. The D-Rays are in the driver’s seat on this one.
Good trade, but what now for Braves?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Impressive work by John Schuerholz and Frank Wren in Orlando, but now what?
Now that the Braves have bolstered their bullpen in a major way by trading Horacio Ramirez _ I’m still amazed that’s all they had to give up _ for setup man and potential future closer Rafael Soriano, they have decisions to make.
The two big ones are seemingly interconnected _ 1. Should the Braves trade or non-tender Marcus Giles (the tender date is Tuesday, Dec. 12), and 2. Should they trade Adam LaRoche.
In case they forget to ask me, here’s what I’d do if it were my decision: Trade Giles for whatever you can get before Tuesday, to get rid of his projected $5-plus million salary, or non-tender him if you can’t find a taker.
This would allow you to keep LaRoche, and I absolutely would not trade LaRoche now that the Braves don’t have to use him to get the pitching they swiped from Seattle. No reason to trade a guy who’s only going to make about $3 mill next season and might hit hit 35-40 homers and drive in 110 (LaRoche drove in 90 last year hitting near the bottom of the order most of the season).
Beyond the basics _ .285-32-90 _ here’s a few LaRoche stats I found in the new Bill James Baseball Handbook: He was 10th in the NL in OPS (.915) and fifth in the second half (1.042) behind only Ryan Howard, Lance Berkman, Albert Pujols and Garrett Atkins.
LaRoche was third in the NL in “BPS” (batting average plus slugging percentage; gotta love those B.James stats) vs. fastballs with a 1.026 total, behind a couple of decent hitters named Howard (1.199) and Pujols (1.045).
He was fifth in OPS among NL 1B, behind Pujols, Howard, Berkman and Nick Johnson.
And he was eighth in OPS for lefty hitting vs. right-handed pitchers, with a .950 mark that trailed Howard (1.164), Berkman (1.142), Beltran (1.053), some dude named Chipper (1.036) and another named McCann (1.001), Carlos Delgado (.977) and Johnson (.952).
That’s right, three Braves in the top eight in that category. But that’s another story for another day. Maybe tomorrow, if I’m bored.
Again, let me reiterate: They don’t need to trade LaRoche now, not if they drop Giles’ salary. And if you don’t HAVE to trade LaRoche, then you don’t trade him.
Sure, they could revisit the deal with the Angels and probably get utility stud Chone Figgins, 1B Casey Kotchman and another, lesser piece, but then you’ve filled the leadoff spot but replaced a fine all-around first baseman with Scott Thorman or Kotchman, neither of whom is comparable to LaRoche defensively or offensively.
Besides, the Braves believe they can get good work from one or a combination of prospects at 2B, and a year from now they might really have a solid 2B emerge from that group.
And a year from now, if LaRoche has another good year and becomes too expensive to keep (assuming payroll doesn’t rise much), you can always trade him for plenty then, and either move Chipper to first base in 2008 or consider Jarrod Saltalamacchia for the job (but Bobby Cox reiterated Wedndesday that the Braves aren’t ready to move Salty from the catching spot yet, and might keep him there to maintain his value, which will be enormous if he bounces back with a strong year in the minors).
Anyway … Tim Hudson appears likely to be back, because the Braves don’t have to deal him and were never going to simply dump his salary without getting plenty of talent back. At $6 mill next season he’s a bargain, and if he has a strong year he’ll still be a bargain at $13 mill the next year, easily tradeable if the Braves feel the need next winter.
This team had a great winter meetings just by making the deal for the nasty, extremely effective Soriano without giving up anything except Horacio, who was going to have to compete for a fifth-starter job if he was back with the Braves.
Good as Horacio looked in 2003 as a rookie, he simply hasn’t panned out because of his string of injuries. Change of scenery might be the best thing for “Ho.”
Consider this: Ramirez was 14-8 with a 3.58 ERA in his first 38 major league starts though May 25, 2004. Then his shoulder woes began. Since then, he’s 16-14 with a 4.60 ERA in 48 games (46 starts) with 117 strikeouts, 99 walks and 301 hits allowed in 279-2/3 innings.
That ain’t good, folks. And that’s all the Braves gave up to get Soriano, who’s the same age (27) and has a 2.17 ERA and .197 opponents’ average in 108 relief appearances, with 151 strikeouts and 37 walks in 128-2/3 innings.
Braves’ top-heavy payroll presents problems
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
You want to know why the Braves must trade Marcus Giles and/or Adam LaRoche in order to improve their pitching staff and stay within budget? I’ll tell you. Rather, I’ll show you.
Because seven guys are eating up 80 percent or slightly more of the $80 million payroll. Yes, seven guys.
“It is what it is,” general manager John Schuerholz said. “We have to make some adjustments, have to be nimble on our financial feet. It doesn’t stop us from doing anything; we just have to be more creative, more patient to find possible fits.”
So that you good blog denizens don’t have to try computing it in your heads, I’ll give you the approximate payroll figures for each of the Big Seven, which includes _ this is important _ the prorated part of any signing bonuses.
This isn’t the exact salary for most of these guys, but rather the amount the Braves are paying them in salary in 2007, plus prorated bonus figure. In the case of Mike Hampton, the figure is what the Braves use for the accounting puposes, basically the average value of their commitment to him over six years.
The figures aren’t exact _ because the Braves won’t divulge them _ but they are close enough to give you an idea of the bad situation the Braves are in.
They are in this situation largely because of commitments made to a few players back when the payroll was about $20 million higher with no indication that it would be reduced _ which it was three years ago, to the $80 million figure that’s remained stagnant in a booming baseball economy. Damn you, Time Warner.
Anyway, here we go:
Andruw Jones ($13.5 mill)
Chipper Jones ($12 mill)
John Smoltz ($11 mill _ FYI, that’s $8 mill and half his $6 mill signing bonus)
Hampton ($9 mill)
Tim Hudson ($8.5 mill _ remember, he got a $10 mill signing bonus)
Bob Wickman ($6.5 mill)
Edgar Renteria ($6 mill; Red Sox paying part of his $9 mill average salary).
Add it up and weep: $66.5 mill.
And even if my figures aren’t exact, they’re pretty close, and that means the Braves are pretty well scr… uh, cash-strapped.
Think about it, that’s more than 80 percent of the total payroll, and you haven’t even figured in arbitration-eligible Braves including Giles, who can expect more than $5 mill, LaRoche ($3 mill or more), Horacio Ramirez (about $3 mill) and Oscar Villarreal (about $1.5 million).
Add it up and weep more: $12.5 million for those four, give or take. Add that to the other seven guys and you get $79 million.
Don’t cry for the Braves; send them your Christmas funds.
But seriously, that payroll obviously is dysfunctional in its top-heaviness. You can’t sign the rest of your roster for about $1 mill. So the Braves must trade at LEAST one significant salary, a Giles or Hudson, and probably at least one lesser one, too.
How else are they going to pay the small raises to all their other non-arbitration guys, not to mention do their stated goal of upgrading the pitching staff by acquiring a proven, elite setup man? Can’t be done without trades.
And please, for the last time, they can’t trade Hampton at least until he comes back and has a healthy season. The man’s owed $29.5 million in salary over the next two seasons and hasn’t pitched in more than a year. Untradeable.
OK, quick update on trade news: The LaRoche-for-Mike Gonzalez trade is still very much alive. I’m told the Braves are just waiting for some information on the hard-throwing left-hander’s elbow, and if they’re satisfied a deal could go down soon after.
Gonzalez missed the last month of the season after having an arthrogram on his sore elbow in September, a procedure that involves injecting dye into the joint to get a clear view that reveals any tissue damage. The Pirates gave him a clean bill of health and Gonzalez said he’s been throwing without any soreness since the last week of the season, when he had several full-on bullpen sessions.
Again, I’ll add that something could happen at any time with this or other deals.
Meanwhile, Bobby Cox talked about a lot of subjects today during a roundtable session with writers, some of which I’m going to post in a Q&A format on our website soon after I finish this blog. But a few of the more interesting things he had to say included:
_ Kelly Johnson is working with coach Glenn Hubbard on defense not just at second base, as previously reported, but also shortstop, third base and left field. Johnson had elbow surgery and missed all of the 2006 season, and he’s trying to broaden his skills so he has a better chance of making the team.
(Just from listening to Cox, it didn’t sound like the Braves are counting on him, mainly because the elbow still isn’t ready to permit him to make strong throws. But he’ll definitely have a chance to prove himself this spring.)
_ Daryle Ward. Braves are still negotiating with him _ “talking to him every day,” Cox said _ and hopeful to have him back pinch-hitting and possibly playing some 1B or LF. Cox also said if the Braves have LaRoche back, Scott Thorman would play some left field in addition to backing up LaRoche.
_ Thorman is ready to handle first base, if necessary. Cox said he might struggle a little early and won’t match LaRoche’s production or defense, but said the big Canadian has improved a lot with the glove and has a big upside.
_ Chipper Jones is not moving to first base this year. Cox said he “absolutely” would be back at third base this season.
_ Yunel Escobar. Cox said the top infield prospect is viewed as a shortstop by the Braves, reiterating what John Schuerholz said a few days ago. Schuerholz said Escobar was not ready to play second base in the majors at this time.
_ Back of rotation. Cox said James is penciled in as the fourth starter right now, with Davies and Horacio likely to battle for the fifth job, if spring training opened today. (Personally, let me say I don’t think the Braves will bring Horacio back at $3 mill to compete for a fifth starter job; he’ll have a job or be traded. But that’s just me talking.)
_ On Chuck James: “I think he had the best winning percentage in the second half. He was pretty classy every start. To hear hitters talk about him, some hitters, good hitters, I won’t mention names but they will come back and say, ‘This is the toughest guy we face to hit at.’ He is extremely sneaky-quick, hard to pick up.” (Personally, let me say that Chuck James is a cool dude.
_ On Tim Hudson: “His [two] years could have been better, but he still won 13-14 games, and Huddy is very capable of winning 15-20, there’s no doubt in my mind. He is still working hard and I know he wasn’t satisfied with his year last year or the year before, actually. But it’s there. I think he is going to be a big winner this year, if we get our bullpen straightened out.”
_ On the Braves’ winter needs: “The core of the team is still there. We still have a real good team. We are looking for a little bullpen depth, if we could locate a real good one. We signed [Tanyon] Sturtze, and he should be able to go shortly after the season starts, I think. And I’ve heard nothing but good stuff about him…. We added him and we’re looking to add a little bit more.”
OK, enough. Gotta write a couple stories for the paper.
Oh, one more thing: Cox raved about Hampton and how getting him back is like adding a free agent and all. He said when he and other team officials saw Hampton throw in an instructional league game, he pitched 1-2/3 innings (was supposed to go 2) and came out after tearing an “adhesion” in his elbow where the surgery was performed, but that he and the Braves were assured it’s entirely normal to experience that brief stinging sensation when that occurs.
Hampton said it felt nothing like a ligament problem or the pain he had before, and went away quickly after he came off the mound. Braves expect him to be ready for full workload this spring and Cox expects him to be ready to go seven innings when the season begins, just like he does all his other starts.
Braves seek Pirates closer Gonzalez for LaRoche
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Here’s my quick but not-so-short update on the Braves’ winter-meetings “rumblings” here from Dark Star (Disney World), though I’ve gotta tell you these scenarios are all so fluid, what I write here could be dated and obsolete by midnight.
So gather ‘round the Hot Stove, kids (OK, read that again _ yes, very cheesy).
First and foremost, let me start by saying: Mike Gonzalez. Would that be something that would interest you?
Damn right, which is why the Braves are talking to the Pittsburgh Pirates about the flamethrowing left-handed closer in a potential deal for first baseman Adam LaRoche.
The Pirates so far have refused to part with Gonzalez, but my understanding is that there’s still a chance it could happen.
Braves GM John Schuerholz said a lot of trade discussions they were having, including presumably talks involving LaRoche, Marcus Giles and Tim Hudson, slowed to a crawl Tuesday, meeting with obstacles. But these things happen. He didn’t say any of the talks died, just slowed. So stay tuned, still two more days to go at the winter meetings.
I’ve got a feeling at least one trade will happen with the Braves this week, but not sure if it’ll be the one that could really set up their bullpen for next season _ Gonzalez could do that. I say this because Pirates GM Dave Littlefield is notorious for asking more than teams are willing to give for his guys, and ending up with nothing.
Gonzalez converted 24 of 24 saves and had a 2.17 ERA with 64 strikeouts over 54 innings in a hugely impressive performance last season, when he took over as Pirates closer after Roberto Hernandez faltered. The Braves could team Gonzalez with Bob Wickman to give them one of the most devastating 1-2 back-end relief combos in baseball.
Gonzalez, 28, is a first-time arbitration-eligible pitcher who’ll make perhaps $2-3 million, and would be heir apparent to the Wickman as closer. For now he could set up Wickman most days, close others.
He missed the last month of the season after having a contrast MRI on his elbow, where dye is injected to determine if there’s any damage. The test requires a few weeks of recovery, and Gonzalez ended up sitting out the last month, but reportedly the test showed no problems with the elbow and he has a clean bill of health.
After posting a 3.14 ERA and .265 opponents’ average in his first 29 games last season, Gonzalez was arguably the most dominant reliever in baseball for the next two months before shutting it down.
From June 25 to Aug. 24, he was 2-1 and 12-for-12 in saves while posting a 1.07 ERA and .143 opponents’ average in 25 appearances, with 12 hits, 14 walks and 35 strikeouts in 25-1/3 innings. Sheer brilliance.
Imagine having Gonzalez, who limited lefties to a .163 average last season (all hitters, .213), as a “complement” to lefty Macay McBride? Helluva complement, and if anything happened to Wickman they’d simply slide Gonzalez into the closer role.
The Braves are still talking to Anaheim about a potential LaRoche deal for super utility man and potential 2B/leadoff hitter Chone Figgins, a deal that would probably also include Angels 1B prospect Casey Kotchman, who missed most of last season with mono and somewhat mysteriously lingering effects.
But the Braves also want a pitcher from Anaheim. They’re certainly not going to get Ervin Santana or Scot Shields, who are deemed nearly untouchable, and the Braves might have a tough time prying any useful pitcher from them.
“Everybody wants a pitcher, especially our pitchers,” Angels GM Bill Stoneman said, referring to general trade talks and not the LaRoche deal, specifically. “They would like to have one of our relievers or starters. The reason why our pitching is what it is, we’ve worked hard to get it that way. To do something that would deplete our pitching, unless it makes us better, we’re not going to do it.”
As good a fit as Figgins could be for the Braves, they might have an even better one if they could pry Gonzalez from the Pirates. The “flamethrower” tag gets thrown around too easily, but it absolutely applies in this dude’s case.
You just don’t find many lefties who throw 96-mph gas like Gonzalez, who also has a very good slider and curveball. In parts of three seasons in the majors (all with Pittsburgh), he has a 2.37 ERA, 28-for-31 saves, a .206 opponents’ average, and 183 strikeouts with 74 walks in 155-2/3 innings.
Yowza.
The Pirates are understandably reluctant to part with him. They have a stable of young pitchers (they don’t want to trade any of their starters) and also have rubber-armed veteran Salomon Torres, who made 94 appearances last year. They’d rather give the Braves Torres, but Atlanta wants a lights-out setup man with “closer stuff.”
As much as they’d hate to see LaRoche (.285, 32 homers, 90 RBIs) go after his breakout third season, the Braves know they have precious few trade pieces that other teams covet, and they’re determined to restore their pitching staff to an elite level _ this time via the bullpen, which is getting more emphasis this winter after undermining the Braves in 2006.
The Braves certainly can’t afford to put together a Big Three in-their-prime rotation like they enjoyed for most of their run of 14 consecutive division titles, but they can be creative and come up with a potentially outstanding bullpen to complement a good rotation.
Now that other teams have learned LaRoche is available _ no one knew until recent the Braves would listen to offers for him _ major interest has developed quickly from several teams.
But much of what you hear from the rumor mill is unlikely or completely ridiculous. Let me take this moment to shoot down two reports that had the Braves considering a deal of Tim Hudson to Seattle for $14 million whiff machine first baseman Richie Sexson. Think about it _ the Braves want to improve their pitching staff and manage their payroll. That does neither.
Then there was the LaRoche AND Marcus Giles to Baltimore for Brian Roberts and pitching prospect Hayden Penn. Huh?
While the Braves liked Roberts as a potential leadoff man, it seems unlikely they’d give up both Giles _ most of his stats mirrored Roberts’ .286-10-55 and .347 OBP last season, except Roberts’ 36 steals to Giles’ 10 _ AND LaRoche for Roberts, who’s eligible for free agency after the 2008 season, and Penny, a prospect whose big league numbers (3-6, 9.31 ERA in 14 starts) are worse than Kyle Davies’.
The Braves, whose stated priority, we repeat, is to improve their pitching, would be giving up two of their best bargaining chips _ not counting Andruw Jones _ and for Roberts and a prospect who was 0-4 with a 15.10 ERA in six starts in ’06. I can’t see it happening.
Nothing new on the Hudson or Andruw fronts, at least nothing that seems legitimate.
But as I said, these things are fluid. By midnight, things could change. Deals could go down at any time, or not at all while we’re here. I’ll try to update you as soon as I hear anything worth repeating.
Regarding persistent Andruw-to-Dodgers rumors on the airwaves and internet: That’s a long way from even getting to the stage of the Braves approaching Andruw to ask whether he’d waive his 10-and-5 veto power, and the Braves haven’t had any serious discussions of it.
I still can’t see the Braves trading Andruw before or even during the season, not unless they got a big bat to replace him and he got a huge enough contract extension guarantee from a team to his liking. Too difficult, and the Braves would be blowing a hole in their lineup.
Uber agent Scott Boras will tell him to exercise his trade veto for anything less. ‘Dru is not going to switch leagues and/or go play in the cold weather he hates in his free-agent “walk” year, not when he can safely put up big numbers again in comfortable surroundings for the Braves. Not without first being assured of market value in a big multi-year contract extension.
Lame ending to Glavine saga
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
There could not have been a more abrupt and empty ending to the Tom Glavine matter than what happened Friday, when the lefty decided to return to the Mets before the Braves had so much as made an offer.
Talk about lack of communication. The Braves wanted Glavine and Glavine wanted back with the Braves, but neither side apparently could pick up the phone Thursday and simply explain to the other exactly where things stood.
I mean, come on. Very intelligent people on both sides of the “talks,” people who spent an awful lot of time and mental energy trying to figure out how to make this work, and it ends because one side doesn’t know the other is getting antsy?
(Before I forget this, let me quash one internet rumor, totally unrelated to Glavine, but since this is a blog I can do things in any illogical order. The Braves are absolutely not involved and have never been involved in any three-way trade talks that would involve San Diego’s Jake Peavy, Boston’s Manny Ramirez and Atlanta’s Andruw Jones.
(Again, absolutely, unequivocally not, a Braves official assured me last night. And here’s what Padres GM Kevin Towers told the San Diego Union-Tribune about rumors of a trade of Ramirez for Peavy and Adrian Gonzalez: “[Expletive] no. God, I don’t have enough time in the day to keep knocking this [manure] down. It’s talk radio. It’s crazy. Lunacy. Neither player has been offered in a trade, I can assure you that.”)
OK, where were we? Oh, yes, the Glavine debacle, Pt. II.
In the end, when Glavine goes into the Hall of Fame _ and are we even certain any longer that a Braves cap, not a Mets, will be on his bust? _ you wonder if either or both sides will shake their heads and wonder how this happened.
Glavine will be fine in New York, pitching another season or two, making $20.5 million if he pitches 200 innings next season (which he’s done in nine of the past 10 seasons) and opts to pitch again in 2008 ($19.5 mill if he does 190 next season and comes back in ‘08).
But the simple fact is, he’d have preferred to come back to Atlanta and would’ve done so for less. How much less, we’ll probably never know, unless he wanted to tweak the Braves by saying at some point, ‘Oh, they could’ve had me for half of what the Mets paid.’ But he won’t.
The Mets are “only” paying him $7.5 million next season, and the rest is tied up in a vesting option based on innings pitched, with only $10.5 mill guaranteed (next year’s salary plus a $3 mill option buyout).
By the way, those who’ve downplayed Glavine’s effectiveness might want to consider this great stat from Elias Sports Bureau: The Mets were 24-8 in his starts in 2006, second-highest winning percentage for any major league pitcher, behind Minnesota’s Johan Santana (27-7) and just ahead of Detroit’s Kenny Rogers (24-9).
Yes, Glavine got great run support (5.91 runs per nine innings pitched), but not as great as the run support enjoyed (and often squandered) by Tim Hudson (6.10).
GM John Schuerholz was uncharacteristically candid last night after Glavine’s decision, telling me that the Braves tried to make trades to clear up money to re-sign Glavine, whom Schuerholz admitted was the Braves’ primary target this winter. They really wanted him and were ready to trade Hudson to make it happen.
But they weren’t willing to simply dump Hudson’s salary and take a package of fringe prospects or non-impact players in return.
Schuerholz said he thought they could have cleared payroll within the next day or two, possibly, and made an offer to Glavine. But Glavine, either frustrated at the glacial pace or concerned that the Mets might get anxious and move on to Barry Zito and others, decided to pull the plug on the “talks” with the Braves and sign with the Braves.
I say “talks” in parenthesis because Glavine said he only spoke to Schuerholz once last week, and that the GM said only that the Braves were interested in bringing him back. He didn’t give Glavine any hint what they might pay. I think Schuerholz was more enthusiastic telling me how much they wanted Glavine back than he was telling Glavine how much they wanted him.
I don’t see why the Braves couldn’t have been candid, even if off the record, and told Glavine this amount or that amount is what they’d be willing to pay if trades they were trying to pull off went through, and also give him some idea when and if those trades were likely to happen. No harm in that. No tampering charges would have been filed. This stuff happens.
Glavine told me the no-trade clause might have come into play _ Mets gave him a full no-trade clause, just like in his last deal; Schuerholz doesn’t give such clauses _ but that he wouldn’t have known until the Braves made him an offer.
My guess is that the no-trade wouldn’t have been a deal-breaker, not if the Braves had offered him, say, $7 million next season with a vesting option worth $7-8 million for 2008.
Instead, we have Schuerholz sounding surprised Friday when word got out that Glavine was going back to Flushing. Apparently the Braves thought they had at least until Sunday, since Glavine had promised only to give the Mets an answer until before the winter meetings, which officially begin in Orlando on Monday, though everyone arrives and starts talking Sunday.
Anyway, seems like it would have been prudent to be absolutely clear on that, to have called Glavine Thursday night and said, “Tommy, do we have a couple more days to get you an offer, or what?”
Or for Glavine to have given them the courtesy, since he’d said how much he wanted back in Atlanta and was ready to take a hometown discount to get it done, of a call Thursday night to say, “John, I appreciate your position but I really need to know how serious you are, and what kind of deal you might offer, and when you might be ready to make that offer.”
Doesn’t that seem reasonable to the average person out there? I think all of us are going, you’ve got to be kidding me. A potential deal falls apart over miscommunication or misunderstanding of dates and deadlines? OK. But seems silly when millions of dollars and the NL East title might be in the balance (stop laughing Mets fans, the Braves really do believe they can catch you in 2007).
But enough of that matter….
Onward and upward. Or at least onward. What will the Braves do this week? I’m not sure, to be honest. I still think they’ll trade Marcus Giles, perhaps to San Diego with Scott Linebrink the key part of the deal at that end.
I think they’re a lot less likely to deal Hudson now, not without getting a solid young starter in return. Braves just can’t open up that hole in their rotation and leave the top end of it to aging John Smoltz (great as he’s been for two seasons, he’s still pushing 40 with an elbow that’s been ‘scoped or cut four times), Mike Hampton (will have gone 1-1/2 years between starts) and second-year lefty Chuck James (very promising, but hasn’t started for a full season).
And with the ridiculous price of free agents, how many of you believe the Braves could afford to get one to replace Hudson, who’ll make $6 mill in 2007, then $13 mill each of the next two years? They might have to wait and just hope he has a good year, then trade him if they want to next winter (they’ll be plenty of suitors if he has a decent year, considering what $13 mill-a-season will get you on the starting-pitcher market these days).
There’s seemingly no excuse now not to get Daryle Ward signed right away, which would at least take care of the pinch-hitting department.
There are a few veteran free-agent relievers available that might not be too overpriced, including lefties Ron Villone and Alan Embree (though Embree was offered arbitration by the Padres) and righty David Weathers. I know, I know, those dudes get your pulses racing.
Schuerholz told me the Braves fully expect Blaine Boyer to be healthy and ready to go this spring, so once again he’ll be penciled in for a middle or setup role that could be prominent _ but IF, if he’s recovered from his arm problems and surgery.
Braves didn’t offer arbitration to pitcher John Thomson or their three remaining free agents _ Ward, catcher Todd Pratt, outfielder Brian Jordan _ because none was a Type A or B free agent, so none would’ve brought compensation anyway. Thomson is reportedly close to signing with Seattle at any moment.
What else … Oh, did you see the latest insane signing? Dave Roberts to San Francisco for three years and $16 million (wait, that actually a far more reasonable deal than five years and $44 million for one-dimensional singles hitter Juan Pierre or five years and $50 mill for 32-year-old Gary Matthews Jr., a journeyman until his good-not-great season with Texas).
For yet another indication of the bizarro pitching market, consider that Ted Lilly is seeking a four-year deal worth about $40 million, and the Cubs, Yankees, Orioles, Blue Jays and Giants are all interested. He’ll get at least $37 mill. Count on it. Ted Lilly, with a 59-58 career record and 4.60 ERA, and an embarrassing on-mound squabble with his manager. Ted … Lilly.
Then again, he is left-handed, and his agent is named O’Brien (Larry).
I had a dog named Larry. My ex has him now. He was a smart old dog, an amiable mutt. I’d be willing to bet he could represent Ted Lilly and get a $30 million contract in this market.
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