Braves

By AJK

December 31, 2006 04:54 PM | Link to this

DOB: Great end of the year post, and I’m excited to learn that KJ has a shot at being our everyday 2B. I have a lot of confidence in him and think he can contribute in a big way, though I’d prefer the Braves to acquire a true leadoff hitter (what’s up with the Baldelli trade?) and take some of the pressure off him in his 1st full year.

Happy New Year!

By elbravox

December 31, 2006 04:57 PM | Link to this

Happy New Year guys!

By PA Bravefan

December 31, 2006 05:03 PM | Link to this

That is good news. If he can play defensively, we may have a second baseman with pop, and average. I still think JS needs to be working on some seal to get Baldelli, and to try to unload AJ for a lot of top prospects. We will not resign him! I hate for him to go but next year Smoltz will also be a Free agent and it makes me sick to think we might not keep him!!

By Andy from Norcross

December 31, 2006 05:13 PM | Link to this

DOB,

What is the status on the Baldelli deal? Is that dead? Do you foresee any more moves for the Braves? Did you hear anymore with negotiations with the Rays? Were they insistent that we include James? Lastly, DOB, what have you heard about Liberty buying the Braves? Is that still on? Does Blank have a chance? The rumors have gone on forever.

By JSH

December 31, 2006 05:13 PM | Link to this

You’ve got to admit - in this market where JD Drew can get $70M offers … there’s a good probability that a team might get LESS than 20/100 for that price.

By Alex

December 31, 2006 05:15 PM | Link to this

Over 20 home runs, 100 RBIs = $70 million?

Oh, my. Don’t ever let anyone tell you that some baseball players are detached from the real word.

That’s actually J.D. Drew’s numbers from last year, and the value of the contract he just signed.

By Jared

December 31, 2006 05:18 PM | Link to this

Some random thoughts:

I hope Kelly Johnson can be the Braves’ primary second baseman.

What is with the ongoing Rocco Baldelli obsession? No one here was even talking about him at all, even mentioned him, until that story on the Braves’ official site about two weeks ago. Now it’s non-stop Baldelli talk. He is not that special and he won’t be a Brave. Trading Davies or James for him is not a wise move, in my opinion.

I still think the Braves need another bullpen piece. I trust Soriano, but it’s possible he could be hurt or something. Mike Gonzalez would be a perfect fit, and I’d get him even if it meant getting rid of LaRoche, whom I really like. I liked LaRoche long before he got hot in the second half of 2006, I felt like the only one at the time.

I’m disappointed at what Schuerholz has done, or in this case hasn’t done. What he has done is great, but with all the talk about pitching when the offseason started, I don’t like his one pitching-related move (Ramirez for Soriano), while good, doesn’t live up to all his talk.

Happy New Year everybody.

By MBATL

December 31, 2006 05:34 PM | Link to this

Jared, JS also signed Wickman for ‘07… so we’ve added two strong relievers this offseason. What exactly SHOULD JS have done by now?

Really too bad about Reitsma. Everything I’ve heard is like what you said, DOB, a great guy. And he had good stuff. Injuries, head problems, wrongly used (he was a middle reliever, not a closer, in my opinion) … who knows. He was a good pickup when we got him, but just didn’t work out.

By John Adcox

December 31, 2006 05:39 PM | Link to this

I think the Rocco Baldelli obsession has more to do with 2008 than 2007, not that I’d be disappointed to have hom out there now. But frankly, I like Johnson a lot. He entertains me (there’s that word again) the way Marcus Giles did, and I like to root for him. He’s the kind of player that makes me glad I bought a ticket.

Wow.

That story about the, er, rearend hole (what can I say on a family site?) in truck was a kick in the gut. I am a native Atlantan, and that kind of stuff just embarasses the heck out of me. This is the gracious, polite south, folks. Leave that behavior to our estranged brothers in Shea. Jeez.

DOB, if you ever happen to run into Chris Reitsma again, please apologize on my behalf. I very sincerely wish him well.

John

By David O'Brien

December 31, 2006 05:41 PM | Link to this

Andy, sorry but you’re asking a lot of questions that are almost impossible to answer. Haven’t heard a word about the Baldelli matter in a week, from either team (most teams pretty well shut things down during the Christmas/New Year’s week).

Tim Tucker has handled the sale story since Day 1, and frankly I’ve gotten numb to the updates just like most of you probably have. He’s trying hard to make sure we have any new development, but it’s just moved as such a glacial pace, with so very little bit of info coming out of any of the parties, and LIberty not willing to make any comments whatsoever. That’s just the way it is, a very complicated business decision involving mind-numbing tax matters and the like.

I haven’t heard any indication that Blank is back in the bidding, or that it’s been opened back up at all.

Although considering the way the Falcons have gone for two seasons, I could certainly see why he’d want to further diversify his sports holding (that’s just me offering a smart-a#@ comment. kidding. sort of.)

By Jared

December 31, 2006 05:49 PM | Link to this

I’m aware of that, MBATL. But all of John Schuerholz’s “focus on the pitching” talk came in early October, when the Braves’ offseason began. So all his talk came after Bob Wickman was locked up for 2007.

As for what he could have done, I don’t really know. I’m not the general manager, I don’t know what talks have been going on. But the Pirates were going to the Braves Mike Gonzalez, so that is one possible move.

By Eric

December 31, 2006 05:49 PM | Link to this

Johnson at 2B, given his work with Hubbard, will be “servicable.” Seeing as how that same term was used for Thorman in LaRoche rumors, I can live with it. Him (or any of the Startig 2B wanna-be’s) batting leadoff is yet another question mark.. The bullpen will be just fine. I think the young guys will benefit with Wickman out there just as young guys did with Smoltz years before. Baldelli is not going to happen, and doesn’t need to happen. TB won’t let any of them go for anything less than a Chuck James - and we don’t need to give him up. Besides, I live in Tampa and can tell you he’s a little over-hyped. Happy New Year.

By Ken Stallings

December 31, 2006 05:52 PM | Link to this

Whoever was driving that pickup was a loser in the first degree — to say that with his young daughter present — what a jerk! I pity people who cannot separate sports from reality like that.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

December 31, 2006 06:08 PM | Link to this

I think if Johnson can handle the job defensively that he should get the nod. He can hit and is more than patient enough to be a leadoff hitter, if someone else can’t be acquired. I would rather have Johnson at 2nd than getting Castillo. I really think JS should pull the trigger on a LaRoche for Gonzales deal. See if the Pirates would throw in Gorzelany and if not go ahead and take McLouth. Gonzales would bring so much to the bullpen and make it the best in the NL. Think about how many times last year that leads get blown, ties were lost, and one run deficits turned into five run deficits and the game was over. A lot of those times didn’t happen in the 9th inning but the 7th and 8th innings. Yes, LaRoche’s offense will be missed but Thorman would be a suitable replacement who can at least get close to that type of production. Besides what does scoring tons of runs mean if you can’t keep the other team from scoring more.

Also, surely all things that went wrong in 2006 can go wrong in 2007. I know Mets fans will call it excuses but what I’m about to say are facts. The Braves had four regualar position players spend time on the DL. Langerhans played the majority of the season with a broken bone in his hand. Aybar had a broken bone in his hand, as well. The last month and a half Andruw was not really healthy nor was Francoeur if truth be told. Two-fifths of the opening day rotation spent more time on the DL than it ever did on the mound. The sixth starter, John Thomson spent the entire second half of the season on the DL and was hurt the entire first half. Chuck James was hurt a good part of the first half of the season and was only in the rotation for what amounted to two months. Blaine Boyer and John Foster, both of whom were being counted on heavily to contribute to the bullpen were hurt before the season ever started. Those may sound like excuses but they are simply facts. And before anyone says that all teams have injuries, check to see how many games potentially played the Braves lost to injury compared to other teams in the NL and then tell me if this team was ever at optimal level.

By journalist jimmy smtih

December 31, 2006 06:18 PM | Link to this

let’s see … kj is working with hubbard to learn to play the position as well as he can - and prado and aybar still figure in with orr - and orr is working with mccann’s daddy to learn to put the bat on the ball - and pena jr is odd man out because he cannot strike the ball. woodward, as far as we know is super utility … backing up at ss and 3b and all o.f. positions - and no one else fits that bill. prado can play two positions as can orr and aybar can play three. that’s too many players. somebody’s got to go.

By Alan

December 31, 2006 06:29 PM | Link to this

Great post, as always, DOB. Thanks for keeping us Braves junkies informed. I, for one, am sorry to see Reitsma go. I was at Disney (DOB’s evil empire) in March of ‘04, less than a week after the Braves acquired Reitsma, and I saw him pitch in a spring training game. He looked really, really good that day and he went on to have a good season. I believe he set a franchise record for appearances that year. Anyway, I wish him well wherever he lands. It wouldn’t surprise me if it’s back in Cincy, but I hope it’s in the AL. As for KJ, I wish him well, too. I kind of think he’ll end up platooning with Prado unless the Braves make a trade or pick up a free agent such as Mark Loretta. I’m also amused by all the Baldelli blather - I read on another site today that the entire Devil Rays’ outfield has been the subject of trade rumors - maybe something will happen, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Get used to Andruw hanging around in ‘07 - which is a very good thing IMO - especially if all of think the Braves will be a serious contender. That’s not likely if AJ is elsewhere. Happy New Year, everyone.

By Spider29

December 31, 2006 06:33 PM | Link to this

I, for one, wish Reitsma well. Contrary to what most people think of him he did a good job as a set-up man. He tried to do the job that was asked of him in the closer role. It just didn’t work. Then the injury prevented him from helping the team in any way. Hopefully the Braves fans will be classy in their reaction to him in the future. I’m looking forward to seeing what Kelly Johnson can do at second. He should help us this coming season.

By David O'Brien

December 31, 2006 06:38 PM | Link to this

Alan, speaking of spring training, do you realize it’s only 6-1/2 weeks until pitchers and catchers report to Lake Buena Dark Star?

By Alan

December 31, 2006 07:04 PM | Link to this

DOB, I wish I could join you at Lake Buena Dark Star this winter. Alas, I live in northeast PA and “they” don’t let me out much. I’ve been to Dark Star twice and it’s great fun. And the Braves have won every game I’ve attended, including a “thriller” over the Dodgers when young Adam LaRoche hit a grand slam in the 9th off some unknown Dodgers’ phenom. I know you’ll never admit it, but you have fun during Spring Training, too. Who wouldn’t? Oh, that spring of ‘04 was when Gary Matthews, Jr., played himself out of a Braves uniform. I think he was cut (in favor of Damon Hollins and DeWayne Wise) the day after I saw him play. Now he’s a multi-millionaire. Ain’t America great? BTW, GM’s dad (a former Brave, of course, and one of my all-time favorites) was recently hired by the Phillies to join their broadcast team.

By David O'Brien

December 31, 2006 07:10 PM | Link to this

Alan, yes, I definitely enjoy most everything about spring training. Just not where the Braves have theirs. But that’s alright. At least the weather’s nice.

Yes, how ‘bout Matthews Jr.? From not being able to beat out DeWayne Wise for a job in spring ‘04 to a $50 mill contract less than three years later. Amazing.

By br618

December 31, 2006 07:18 PM | Link to this

in defense of chipper, i worked as a stringer in columbus and saw him field a ball on the second base side of the outfield grass and get a throwing error, i saw him charged with other questionable errors during that year too.

By Mandolin

December 31, 2006 07:33 PM | Link to this

I worked as a stripper in columbus, too, and saw quite a lot of Chipper. You are right about the questionable errors.

By Jared

December 31, 2006 07:37 PM | Link to this

Why is Disney the evil empire?

I’ve never been to Disney world/land by the way, so I’m neutral.

By Dawgs2006

December 31, 2006 07:45 PM | Link to this

Thank God! It is about a year too late. Good Ridance, Loser!

By Don Williamson

December 31, 2006 08:14 PM | Link to this

I’ve been a constant fan of the Braves since 1982, and I wish 750 AM Radio would carry them again. I am a former minor leaguer and all american and am on the road much of the time during game time and can’t keep up with those 5000 watt stations. I used to hear the games all over the southeast. As a former middle infielder I vote for Kelly Johnson, I LIKE HIM.

By Steve Skelton

December 31, 2006 08:15 PM | Link to this

Dawgs2006 is a fine example of what is WRONG with UGA fans (great comeback last night by the way…). Show some class there buddy. Reitsma is a class act that had a very rough year for us last year. We don’t need to be bashing the guy. If you can do a better job, why don’t you go down there and try out or see if they’ll invite you to Spring Training. Whoever that was that had the complete lack of class to insult Reitsma in front of his own child should be ashamed of himself. Was it you ‘06? Sounds like it might have been a friend of yours!! REAL sports fans support their teams and their players in both good and bad times.

By MGL

December 31, 2006 08:36 PM | Link to this

I live in the Orlando area, and “evil empire” is a perfect term for the Disneyworld area. The combination of traffic, jacked-up prices for everything, and tourists that don’t know where they are or are going makes the whole area a disaster. One of my daughters is a “cast member” at Disney and they treat their people like crap, pay as little as possible, and charge as much as they can for everything. While this is worst case, a one-day “park-hopper” ticket that allows you to go anywhere is now $107. Some of you complain about MLB prices etc. They learned it from Disney. The more you charge, the more people think that they have to come. “Evil Empire” is perfect!!

By ssiscribe

December 31, 2006 08:55 PM | Link to this

Ah, Dark Star. Good times the past three years down there, including meeting Chris Reitsma his first day with the Bravos back in March 2004. Nice guy. Cincy would be a good place for him to go. I hope he turns it around.

Interesting news on Kelly Johnson. Personally, I’d not considered him too seriously for second base, but I love his swing and think he can develop into a great hitter. And a good point about him watching last year while being hurt: sometimes, when young players struggle, watching from the bench can help a player break out of a slump. Nobody wants to watch an entire season, but maybe Johnson observed enough to avoid the streaks we saw from him in 2005.

OK, off I go. Happy New Year everybody. All the Scribes (Momma Scribe, Little Scribe and Baby Scribe) wish DOB and the denzines a prosperous and blessed 2007. May the last week of October be special for us all, topped off with a party on Peachtree (of course, if the Thrashers wanna give us an excuse to party say, the third week of June, that’d be fine by me, as well).

The Scribe abides. Peace.

—30—

By KC

December 31, 2006 08:57 PM | Link to this

In the previous blog, DOB wrote: “I’d just be willing to bet you that, entering the season, few national prognosticators would have the Braves atop their NL power rankings. That’s all I’m saying. Only one I’ve seen so far is Baseball Weekly (for what it’s worth, they have them 8th in the NL and fourth in the NL East, as of right now).”

DOB, I’m sure only a small percentage of baseball media types will place the Braves at or even near the top of their power rankings heading into the season… but 4th in the division??? Wow! That one floors me.

The problem with some “objective” observers is that they’re often very casual observers. In other words, they’re not paying much attention.

There will be many who will look at the Braves and say “A 79 win ball-team plus Rafael Soriano doesn’t equal a 90-100 win team, and they would be absolutely correct if that premise were accurate.

I’m guessing that the person who ranked the Braves 4th in their division next year must feel that Hudson will not fare much better next season, that Hampton will be a complete non-factor, and that the Braves middle relief will still be very shaky up to the 8th/9th innings. Any of those things could well be the case next year, but I think all are at the very least, somewhat unlikely.

There are numerous things I’ll bet the particular prognosticator you referenced has failed to realize. First, that if the Braves had Wickman and Soriano in their pen from day-1 last year… they would be coming off a 90-plus win season and a 15th consecutive post-season berth (Wild Card).

The second thing I’m sure he didn’t notice is that the Braves middle relief situation (not just the 8th and 9th) looks very promising. The 5 (likely) returning members of last year’s bullpen: Wickman, Yates, McBride, Villarreal, and Paronto posted a combined ERA of 2.31 in the month of September to end the season. Now normally, I might look at that and think “big deal, it’s one month”. But I believe the way McBride, Yates, and Villarreal finished the season is of particular significance, because I it seems to me that they used the 2006 season to establish themselves (or re-establish in Villarreal’s case). I believe they will carry those improvements with them into the 07’ season. Add Soriano, and the return of a good young arm in Blaine Boyer back into the mix… and I think the Braves pen looks fantastic heading into 07’. Add another quality lefty, and it’ll look even more fantastic, but wouldn’t you agree that the Braves pen already looks solid?

The third thing I’m sure he’s not taking into consideration at all, is the 18 month thing with Hampton. As you know, there is a huge difference between returning after 18 months vs. only 12… but I’ll bet real money that this factor is nowhere on his radar. If you’re going to rank a team with a great offense, solid bullpen, as well as a rotation that also includes Smoltz, Hudson, and James, fourth in their division… you must expect them to get absolutely nothing from Hampton this season. Even then, 4th is difficult to imagine.

I’ve said it many times, and I don’t mean to beat a dead horse… but it all comes down to Hudson and Hampton. If you expect good things from them, then I think it makes perfect sense to place them atop your NL power rankings heading into 07’. If not, well maybe you pick the Braves to finish 2nd… maybe even 3rd (if nothing pans out as planned for Atlanta). But 4th????

By brian

December 31, 2006 09:22 PM | Link to this

DOB - nothing on the Andruw Jones front I assume after Boras put his finishing touches on that abdsurd contract Barry Zito signed? If he can get that for Zito I can only imagine what he is planning for Andruw.(actually I don’t think I have that big of an imagination)

By Jim

December 31, 2006 09:37 PM | Link to this

Dear David and John (Scheurholz),

Don’t tell me how good Kelly Johnson is going to be as our 2B and leadoff hitter (IF-DOG-RABBIT). Here we go again… another one of John Schuerholz “pig-in-a-poke” moves. Kelly Johnson - can you say “NO Stolen Bases?” I know the way Schuerholz works now that Time Warner has chosen NOT to compete (Thanks Time Warner). A few weeks ago Schuerholz signed JOURNEYMAN Willie Harris in an under-the-radar move. Most Braves fan just didn’t fall off the turnip truck. Wee Willie Harris has a chance to be our starting 2B and leadoff hitter. That’s great, journeyman Harris CANNOT come close to hitting (batting avg.) his own weight and just like Kelly Johnson, Willie CANNOT steal bases. I’ve given up all hope of Schuerholz making a significant trade or signing to upgrade Braves for 2007. In fact, General George Custer had a BETTER chance at the Little Big Horn than Braves fans have of John making any trades. Now that Baltimore signed Aubrey Huff, there is no chance we can acquire Brian Roberts (a REAL leadoff hitter that CAN steal bases). Schuerholz and his Time Warner cronies are so proud when they acquired Rafael Soriano as their “dominant” setup guy. Yes, he was dominant UNTIL a rocket launched from Vladimir Guerrero’s bat crash landed on his skull late last season. Many MLB scouts have been quoted as saying Soriano has not been the same since. My point is the Braves could (coulda/woulda/shoulda) have traded for Mike Gonzalez from the PIRATES and HAD a dominant bullpen. However, the “Schuerholz who STOLE the hot stove season and HOPE” from Braves fans is NOT going to make and moves to improve the car crash from 2006. No Rocco Baldelli, no Mike Gonzalez, not even Georgia’s own Chone Figgins. Let me remind the brain trust at Turner Field that Baldelli and Figgins are REAL leadoff hitters that CAN steal bases. Don’t insult my intelligence and say Kelly Johnson is going to hit for an acceptable average, let alone steal bases. The navigational charts for the TITANIC had a better chance for success than Kelly Johnson and JOURNEYMAN Willie Harris being productive major leaguers. I’ve given up all hope for trades or upgrades because John’s track record has become too predictable over the past few years. No exciting trades or signing to IMPROVE the team. I’m to the point now where I believe John Schuerholz passes gas in elevators and gives rocks to “Jerry’s Kids” at Halloween. Thanks Time Warner. Mr. O’Brien (who I honestly respect) makes it sound like Kelly Johnson is the next Ryne Sandberg (once again… IF/DOG/RABBIT). What has John Schuerholz given us to get excited about for next year???@!$#%%$ Is it JOURNEYMAN Willie Harris, “Skull Fracture” Soriano, “Father Time” Bob Wickman, and please don’t tell me how good Kelly Johnson is going to be, I already now. Johnson at his best will have similiar statistics to Ryan Langehans - you know, the basic .240 BA and 6 HRs and NO SB’s (a real star). “Holla” long-suffering Braves fans if you hear my despair. Look for a clone 2006 season in 2007 based on this exciting offseason. THANKS John and THANKS Time Warner.

By TLJ

December 31, 2006 09:46 PM | Link to this

I too wish Reitsma good luck where ever signs. I also like the idea of KJ playing 2 nd base. If he can handle it on defense I think we have something.

I think we should forget Baldelli, TB wants pitching and we don’t have any to spare. They are in the driver seat and unless they will reduce their demand, they should go look somewhere else. Wouldn’t it be great if Salty has a good season and TB regrets not making the deal.

There is no way I would trade LaRoche straigh up for Gonzalez and we do not need McLouth or Castillo. Like TB on Baldelli we are in the driver seat with LaRoche, if Pittsburg wants him they should be ready to trade Gonzalez, Gorzelany and a prospect.
I don’t see this happening.

Happy New Year everyone!

By Greg

December 31, 2006 10:20 PM | Link to this

The funny thing is that we may find that Reitsma is really a great pitcher in another role on another team. Wouldn’t that be ironic?

By brian

December 31, 2006 10:25 PM | Link to this

I agree TLJ - the Braves need to acquire top young pitching, not be giving it away. To be more specific, the Braves need top young starting pitching. Too bad the Braves could not have figured a way of getting Brandon McCarthy from the White Sox (I cannot believe they dealt him). The only way I would deal LaRoche is if we get a top young pitcher in return. Yes I would deal him straight up for Ervin Santana (though the Angels would not) and I would consider it for McCarthy (McCarthy and Kinsler would be a no brainer but of course it is a no brainer NO with a hang up from the Rangers).

The only way the Braves get a top young starting pitcher is with Andruw, and the only way Andruw gets dealt is for someone to show Boras the money. Hicks did it for AROD. Maybe he would feel like $150 million for 7 years would be a bargain.

Anybody want to call now what Andruw’s extension will look like and then next year at this time we can hear an “I told you so”

Happy New Year

By KC

December 31, 2006 10:30 PM | Link to this

Jim: Good points but respectfully… you’re wrong. Particularly this statement:

“Look for a clone 2006 season in 2007 based on this exciting offseason.”

Had the Braves had Wickman and Soriano in the bullpen on opening day last year, we would be coming off a 90-plus win season, and a 15th consecutive post-season berth (be it Division champ or Wild Card).

That simple fact alone assures us that next season will not be the same. Add a healthy and completely recovered Mike Hampton back into the mix, along with a good young arm we’ll be getting back in the person of Blaine Boyer… and the pitching staff is already leaps and bounds better than the team that started last season. Consider also that the 5 returning members of last year’s bullpen posted a combined ERA of 2.31 in month of September to end the season. Guys like Yates, McBride, and Villarreal made clearly visible significant improvements toward the end of the season, and will likely carry those improvements into next season.

As for the leadoff man situation… dude, Giles was nothing to write home about in that role last season. Still, Atlanta was the best offensive team in the NL. The Braves will be near the top of the league offensively again in 07’, regardless of the leadoff situation.

So Jim, my friend, simmer down and don’t get your blood pressure up. The Braves will win better than 90 games next season. Bank on it. How many more (than 90) will depend on what we get from Hudson and Hampton, but this will be a good, competitive team next season.

HAPPY NEW YEAR!

By Darren

December 31, 2006 10:41 PM | Link to this

DOB,

Thanks for the heads up on the Whigs!

Have you heard the new Summer Hymns CD?

Darren

By jed

December 31, 2006 10:43 PM | Link to this

kelly johnson has a good swing. he hit the ball well when he first came up, but kept hitting it at people. if you were watching, you saw that. and if you know what you’re watching, you could see the potential there. i see no reason why we couldnt go with a platoon at 2b. biggest question for me is LF. matt diaz showed he could hit last year, but he’s clumsy in the field. i’ve watched thorman & langerhans, and although langerhans is brilliant defensively, will he ever hit? if you go with thorman in the platoon, you’re gonna have bad defense in LF. thorman & diaz would have to tear it up at the plate to justify that.

By jed

December 31, 2006 10:45 PM | Link to this

kelly johnson has a good swing. he hit the ball well when he first came up, but kept hitting it at people. if you were watching, you saw that. and if you know what you’re watching, you could see the potential there. i see no reason why we couldnt go with a platoon at 2b. biggest question for me is LF. matt diaz showed he could hit last year, but he’s clumsy in the field. i’ve watched thorman & langerhans, and although langerhans is brilliant defensively, will he ever hit? if you go with thorman in the platoon, you’re gonna have bad defense in LF. thorman & diaz would have to tear it up at the plate to justify that.

By Lew

December 31, 2006 11:15 PM | Link to this

Jim-I don’t think the situation is as dire as you do. The bullpen is better and Soriano is fine. All the reports of him losing his stuff was based on about 5 IP in Winter ball. He says now he is all the way back.

By gotigers72

December 31, 2006 11:26 PM | Link to this

I believe Kelly Johnson has the potential to be an above average major league hitter. I hope he can play well enough defensively to play above average second base. [Although I will miss Marcus’ diving stops and fearlessness at 2nd]. I do not think Kelly has the tools to be a leadoff hitter. We need someone there that can steal 20+ bases.

As you pointed out DOB, he needs to be more aggressive at the plate. I remember thinking that he took too many good pitches and swung at too many bad pitches in his tenure in the big leagues. Somebody for TP to work with this spring. He seems to be someone who will listen to coaching.

By MEB

January 1, 2007 12:00 AM | Link to this

Maybe this will be the last post of 2006 for what has been a difficult year for us Braves fans. To all Braves fans everywhere may 2007 be filled with good health and happiness. GO BRAVES!!!

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 12:07 AM | Link to this

HAPPY NEW YEAR’S!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! To all of my fellow Braves fans and even you Mets fans I hope your 2007 is better than your 2006. Braves fans, lets hope 2007 brings HEALTH AND PROSPERITY to the Braves and our rightful place atop of the NL East!!!!!

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 12:14 AM | Link to this

Unless someone is obtained I think Johnson and Aybar are the best options at the leadoff position. Both guys are patient and take walks which results in high OBP.

I wonder if Gregor Blanco plays his tail off in spring training would it be enough for the Braves to give him the everyday job in LF. This guy had .402 OBP at Richmond and is doing the same thing in winter ball. He has speed, which will allow him to steal bases. If he has a similar spring, it seems to me the Braves would have a very difficult decision on their hands.

By Oregon_Braves

January 1, 2007 12:22 AM | Link to this

I know we give Dayn Perry from the FoxSports website a lot of grief on here (and deservedly so), but I honestly can’t believe the suck-up job he has just posted on the MLB homepage over there. It’s not even January and he’s sending Omar an excruciatingly sickening valentine. According to Mr. Perry, they will be naming an entire wing in Cooperstown after Minaya very soon. Check it out, if you have a strong stomach. It must be love. You have been warned.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 12:28 AM | Link to this

Okay, anyone who had doubt of Dayn Perry’s bias for the Mets need to read his most recent article on Foxsports.com. He says that this winter’s moves only solidifies his status as an effective GM. He points to signing Glavine and Jose Valentin. He also notes Moises Alou. He says despite the rotation issues the Mets are the prohibiitive favorites. He does say however that winning a World Series will requie an upgrade of the rotation. WTF!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Is this assclown high? Yes, the Mets are still very good. I will even agree they should be tagged as the favorites. But saying they are prohibitive favorites and basically implying the NL East won’t be that difficult for them to win. That is a slap in the face to the Braves, Phillies, and Marlins. That is a freaking joke! Does this jerk really think that rotation is better than Atlanta’s, Philly’s, or Florida’s? The Phillies and Braves scored more runs than the might Mets offense did last year. The Braves and Mets made upgrades to their pitching while the Mets pitching was downgraded significantly. I just don’t get it.

Anyone who had any doubt where Dayn Perry’s favortism lies should have no doubt after reading his article. It is utterly inane. I hope the Braves, Phillies, and Marlins read that bs and it inspires them to greatness and the Mets finish fourth. I wonder what Mr. Perry would say if that happened?

By Jim

January 1, 2007 01:13 AM | Link to this

KC

Let me preface this note by saying we’re both lifelong Braves fans. I do not live in Fantasyland. The simple facts still make me believe John Schuerholz’ ancestors rented rooms to Gringos at the Alamo. Marcus Giles was “Mr. Mediocre” (we certainly agree on that). The two bums Schuerholz is replacing Giles with as the starting 2B/leadoff hitter are far times WORSE than Giles ever was. How can we be improved with NO basestealing threat, let alone guys who are challenged to hit their own weight????!!!! Everything done in this “pig-in-a-poke” offseason by Grinch Schuerholz is IF-DOG-RABBIT or Las Vegas roll-the-dice. Journeyman Willie Harris and Kelly Johnson are NOT Chone Figgins or Brian Roberts, not even close. Rafael Soriano is a risk that he may never be the same dominant set-up guy after a Vladimir Guerrero rocket crash landed on his skull (if you don’t believe me just ask several MLB Scouts). Although you and I both want Mike Hampton to rebound to a 20-win season, once again you have to roll-the-dice on what you get from Hampton. You say I’m wrong, no KC my friend, I’m not the enemy here, GRINCH Schuerholz is!!!!!! No significant trades or signings this offseason. Now I’m convinced there will NOT be any moves thanks to Time-Warner. KC, I respect your 2007 optimism; however, we start right away knowing this is Andruw’s last year here (THANKS Time Warner). Let’s not get on the how good Ryan Langerhans is going to be bandwagon PLEASE!!!! A .240 BA and 6 HRs is NOTHING to get excited about my friend. Please KC, the enemy here is Grinch John, he’s WRONG. This is NOT Fantasyland as we all would like. This is the REALITY of the Grinch Schuerholz and Time Warner world we now live in. Thanks Time Warner. KC, Time Warner has CHOSEN NOT to compete. Take off those rose-colored glasses and see the true colors. Respectively, you and I cheer for the same team, we just see things differently. I TRULY hope you are correct, that’s what we both want. But Suddam Schuerholz and Time Warner have taken away ALL of my hope this ice-cold offseason. We are in TROUBLE if the most exciting articles this hot stove season are written about how Kelly Johnson will lead the Braves to the promised land. PLEASE, Kelly Johnson is a Ryan Langerhans clone. I want to ask the question once more, WHO is going to steal more than 5 bases in 2007 for the Braves!!!????)(&$&#$lou. A lifelong Braves fan in closing says…. *PLEASE MR. BLANK, just like Moses, LEAD us out of this no hope and despair. THANKS AGAIN Time Warner. I’m also convinced Grinch Schuerholz’ relatives *sold Zippo lighters to the crew of the Hindenburg.

By Lew

January 1, 2007 01:47 AM | Link to this

Dude-You really need to get a grip. It’s not a good thing to start the New Year off with a stroke.

By berigan

January 1, 2007 02:11 AM | Link to this

Robert(And Oregon Braves) well, checked him out and yep, Dayn Perry’s nuts! Robert, as you mentioned, right now, I’d take the Braves, Phils(A very underrated staff if you look at it) and Marlins starters over the Mets. Not saying the Mets can’t swing a trade and at least have a decent rotation and still win the division, but like most teams, an injury or 2 away from .500 ball.

Oh, I did look into Perry, and thought this article was verrrrry interesting….. http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2005/05/brave_heart.php

By Chris Parsons

January 1, 2007 03:24 AM | Link to this

read your blog all the time, great work. Just wanted to point out that Melvin Mora was probably referring to JD Drew who last year hit 20 HR and had 100 RBI and then agreed to (but hasn’t signed) a $70 million contract. Sadly, the players are delusional, the GM’s seem to be.

By Ron

January 1, 2007 03:25 AM | Link to this

Berigan, Good job getting that article. Wow That article was very interesting. Dont know how anybody can hate a team with passion, and I guess Mature, Dont know if he matured or not, Can consider that same team which he hated consider them his second favorite team. OK anyways. The Mets must be his second favorite team now, and Braves third, I guess. No way I would ever consider the Mets or Yankees my second favorite team, HATE THEM BOTH.

By Ron

January 1, 2007 03:29 AM | Link to this

Never ever gonna Like the Yankees after that 96 World Series. I was 10 years old, and after that Jim bleepin Leyritz hit that 3 run homer to tie that game, I started crying, Knew it was over, and I guarantee all yall knew it was over to once he hit that homer. No way the Yankees would EVER be my second favorite team, EVER.

By Najeh Davenpoop

January 1, 2007 07:22 AM | Link to this

Reitsma sucked and I’m glad the Braves didn’t try to keep him, but whoever decided to drive by him and yell at him in front of his daughter only makes Atlanta sports fans look even worse, if that was possible.

I like OBP, but it would be nice if Kelly Johnson could also string together some hits this time around, unlike two years ago.

By br618

January 1, 2007 07:27 AM | Link to this

Jim it doesn’t matter that aybar and johnson aren’t basestealing threats, bobby cox doesn’t like to steal or bunt which is why the braves aren’t real successful in the playoffs

By JCB

January 1, 2007 08:44 AM | Link to this

Jim You need to chill dude. What is your distaste for Jon S??? Has he wronged you and your family in some form or another? I mean, the man has a budget to work with, its not his fault he didnt feel he could pay someone like Pierre the ridiculous contract he got. He is not going to trade the whole farm system for a few players who might help now, he is being wise, something you are not. So unless you have some real reason as to why you are acting like a horses rear end, chill.

By Mark

January 1, 2007 08:45 AM | Link to this

Whats really scary is that as much as I like Chipper( he has been a great player)If he goes down our lineup is going to be lacking pop and really this is a very suspect starting pitching group as well.Out Team seems to be on a downward trend.

Yes true we have young player in Jeff and Brian that have power, although Jeff has got to add some walks to his game.

Really our infield defense looks alittle shaky as well.

By JC FROM UT

January 1, 2007 09:23 AM | Link to this

Happy New Year to all!! Regardless if the LaRoch/Gonzales trade is made or not we still need another lefty in the bullpen. As of now there is Makay McBride, who has done agreat job, but is not enough on his own. There aren’t any free agents out there except the likes of Kent Merker Scott Schoenweiss or Ron Vallone. This being said I think the LaRoche/Gonzales deal is even that much more important to make. Hopefully this was a “shutdown week” and JS will call Pitt this week and make the deal.

By Ripme

January 1, 2007 09:39 AM | Link to this

Thank you LORD! Thank you !

By ncscoots

January 1, 2007 09:41 AM | Link to this

Mark, if one of the big bats goes down with an injury, Braves have enough offensive depth in the everyday lineup to keep scoring runs (another reason I favor keeping LaRoche). There’s 20-plus-HR power 2 thru 7 as now constituted, and if Thorman is getting regular AB, I certainly think he’s capable of 15-20 HR. That’s a lot of crush, which is why I’m not all that concerned about a prototypical leadoff hitter. Braves can score in bunches from many spots in the lineup, unlike most teams which sport power only at the traditional 3-4-5 spots.

Many of our bloggers who support the speedy-base-stealer-leadoff premise always point to the fact that the Braves last year would have big games offensively, and other games in which they had trouble scoring. Duh. That profile fits only every other team in MLB, also, since it’s the NATURE OF THE GAME! Over 162, every team is going to have peaks and valleys. The fact that the Braves lineup is CAPABLE of putting up 8 runs any time they hit the field is the point. A leadoff hitter who gives up 30% of his hits with caught-stealing isn’t going to improve the offensive efficiency of this lineup. Now, if we could sign Ichiro, that’s a different story, LOL!

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 10:00 AM | Link to this

I think a balanced lineup needs a speedy leadoff hitter or a speedy guy in the lineup that can get on base and steal bases. I realize that some will continue to say that speed doesn’t matter. In my opinion that is utterly ridiculous to say. I don’t care what the sport is. Speed is important. Do you guys realize that Figgins and Jose Reyes individually stole as many or more bases than the Braves did as a team? The Braves stole 52 bases all season. Now, I can’t believe that inelligent baseball people really don’t think that is a problem. Speed does so much for the game. It turns a potential putout into an infield single or error. It turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples. Speedy guys get on base and steal second avoiding double plays and taking pressure off of the batter hitting behind them. I know some will say that while Figgins stole 52 bases he was caught 16 times. And? He still stole 52 bases. How can anyone look at the likes of Reyes, Eckstein, Damon, and Hanley Ramierez and tell me that a speedy leadoff guy doesn’t matter.

I think Kelly Johnson or Wily Aybar will do at the leadoff position because they have high OBP and can take walks; however, their lack of speed is a problem no matter which way you slice it. Would I trade LaRoche for Figgins? Probably not unless Erick Aybar and maybe a pitcher were involved. Would I consider giving Gregor Blanco the nod in LF if he can maintain his high OBP and show some knack for stealing bases in spring training? You bet your sweet a** I would. This offense has plenty of power. Chipper almost hit 30HR in only 2/3 of a season. LaRoche hit 32 and would’ve probably hit 40 if he didn’t have to platoon with Jordan the first 1/3 of the season. McCann hit over 20. Frenchy hit 29 and probably would have reached 30 if he had been given a day off here and there. BUT, the one thing the offense didn’t have was speed or guys who could steal bases.

By dadgum

January 1, 2007 10:06 AM | Link to this

Scattershooting while wondering what ever happened to the band Nantucket….

Happy New Year to everyone here and peace, health, happiness, & prosperity in this coming year.

With all the rain we are getting I wonder if The Diamond is holding up? Negotiations are on again with Mike Plant of teh Braves and Richmond’s mayor Doug Wilder on a new proposal at teh existing site. That on again off again romance is making me tired not to mention just about everyone else in Central Virginia. Get ‘er done already!!!

Oh yeah…back to Nantucket. The band hailed from Eastern NC around Jacksonville during the 70’s / 80’s. They played mostly in the Southeast and recorded 2 albums I know of maybe more. They had a loyal following and a good rock sound at the time. Their lyricist and lead guitar player was Tommy Redd. Can’t seem to find any info on them these days. Any info out there?

Also just wondering what this blog would be like if we could actually eliminate all the soap opera posts and rebuttal posts by,well, you know who they are and stick just to valued opinions on the normal topics within teh blogosphere. Not saying we can’t disagree just keep it on topic instead of dragging mud and people’s mothers into it etc. Go Braves!!!

By MBATL

January 1, 2007 10:12 AM | Link to this

I’d love to get Gonzalez and a young SP, but sounds like the Pirates aren’t going to give up 2 quality arms for Laroche.

How about Laroche and Langerhans for Gonzalez and Duffy? Duffy is no superstar, but a good OF who can steal bases. Langerhans would be expendable, and the Pirates would have some backup for CF.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 10:30 AM | Link to this

I tell you what a lot of Pirate fans hate Littlefield. They think he is an idiot. Some are wondering why he doesn’t send Duffy along with Gonzales and pull the trigger. I don’t necessarily want Duffy but I too have to wonder. One place they have some depth is in the outfield. It just goes to show why the Pirates remain the NL’s bottomfeeders. The only reason they finished above the Cubs last season was because the Cubs played almost the entire season without Derek Lee.

By RC

January 1, 2007 10:40 AM | Link to this

DB,

Thanks, the Braves Blog is quickly becoming my favorite at AJC due to your hard work and perspective. I agree on Reitsma…too bad from the good guy part. I agree with the earlier blogger, he shoulda been kept at setup…. AND Giles shoulda been kept at the number 2 spot regardless. I know the money crunch has hurt the Braves but when you gotta a good thing going why change it? Guess Bobby had to try. Giles to me would always be a welcome 2nd baseman, number 2 hitter at the Ted. Too bad he’s gone.

RC

By JC FROM UT

January 1, 2007 10:45 AM | Link to this

MBATL: I’m with you about Gonzales/LaRoch but I wouldn’t include Langerhans. As someone posted on the previous blog, Langerhans may well be the best alternative to AJ next season, defensively speaking. Personally I think Langerhans,with a little more patience could be a decent leadoff guy. He may not be the fastest but he seems like a smart baserunner with a lot of hustle. I’m sure Thorman will not put up a 30 HR season but he could hit 15-20. I just really wish JS would do the deal with Pitt.

By MBATL

January 1, 2007 10:46 AM | Link to this

BTW, RBIB, I’ve seen a couple of statistical analyses that place Figgins as the best baserunner in baseball (not base stealer, but baserunner, taking into account extra bases taken, going from 1st to 3rd on singles, scoring from 1st on doubles, not getting thrown out on the basepaths - that kind of thing.)

Given that, and his versatility, I’d consider a package for him if we could pry some kind of pitching away in the deal.

By AdirondackDave

January 1, 2007 11:08 AM | Link to this

I agree, Littlefield doesn’t seem to be the sharpest tack in the box. With his options dwindling, he wants and needs LaRoche big-time but can’t bring himself to include Duffy, a minor piece in the overall picture for both clubs. Seems a little odd to me.

Actually, I’m not certain that the Pirates have anybody, including Duffy, who can hold down a Braves outfield slot for a full season and successfully lead off. He doesn’t look like a contenders lead-off guy to me. Perhaps it will occur to Littlefield to propose one or two secondary minor league prospects instead of Duffy and negotiate up from there.

My hunch is that this deal will get done, sooner or later, given JS’s stated pitching priority. After being widely criticized last year for letting obvious bullpen problems ruin the season for the Braves, he’s surely can’t let that happen again.

By KC

January 1, 2007 11:18 AM | Link to this

JIM: Dude, your post looks like an electronic version of a demented ransom note. That’s a manifesto if I ever saw one. Jim, again man… relax and try to get your heart rate down.

The biggest problems last year were injuries and the bullpen. Do you realize that the Braves had 3 starters on the DL the entire season?! There were a couple points during the season in which they had 4 starters out all at once. The Braves largely solved that issue by getting rid of their 2 most injury prone starters (Thompson and Ramirez).

The other big issue, the bullpen, has also been fixed. First of all, did you notice in my earlier post… that whole thing about the 5 returning members of the bullpen finishing the season with a combined 2.31 September ERA? From the looks of it, the bullpen was already a helluva lot better by the end of the season than it was at the all-star break. Now you add one of the premiere setup men in baseball, and get a good young arm back in Blaine Boyer. I can’t even comprehend, let along relate, to any pessimism regarding this bullpen.

As for Hampton being a “roll of the dice”, I don’t think anyone’s predicting a 20 win season. But the FACT of the matter is that he’ll have had the FULL 18 month recovery period (from Tommy John surgery) where as most pitchers return after only 12 months, and struggle their first several months back as a result. There is now a 90% success rate for pitchers returning from TJ surgery. Dr. James Andrews, one of the leading doctors to who performs that procedure, defines success as “being 100% at the 18 month (post-surgery) mark”. Jim, this means that there is only a 10% chance of Hampton suffering any ill-effects whatsoever next season. A “roll of the dice” with 90% odds… I’ll take that wager. Again, no one’s predicting 20 wins, but I’ll bet real money that he has a solid overall season, and a great 2nd half (once he’s shaken off the rust).

Alos, History (and a few other factors) suggest that we can look for a better season out of Hudson as well. I can’t predict the future or tell you that Hampton and Hudson will both be good next season, but in both cases… the odds are in the Braves’ favor.

Your question: “I want to ask the question once more, WHO is going to steal more than 5 bases in 2007 for the Braves!!!????”

My answer: WHO GIVES a F%&!!!!! This team was the best offensive team in the NL last year *without a leadoff man or a base stealer! The Braves know how to lay down an bunt and drive a runner in. They also know how to knock the ball into next year, as they were top HR-hitting team last year as well. One way or another… they’ll score runs. Why is it so hard for some people to accept that the Braves were, and remain, an excellent offensive ballclub???

BOTTOM LINE: The Braves two biggest problems, health and the bullpen, have both been addressed. The rotation will likely be strengthened by Hampton. Again, if Wickman and Soriano had been in the bullpen on opening day of last season, the Braves would absolutely, positively be coming off a 90-plus win season right now. So man, there is no conceivable way (short of a catastrophic, unprecedented rash of injuries) that the Braves’ 07’ season will be a “clone of 2006”. It just ain’t gonna happen. And if you really believe that, I’m open to a friendly wager.

By KC

January 1, 2007 11:22 AM | Link to this

MBATL:

I wouldn’t have a problem with the Braves throwing something into that trade to get both Gonzalez and Duffy in return.

If the Braves believe that Duffy can get on base enough to bat leadoff, then it would be worth parting with LaRoche and Langerhanz or even Matt diaz to get both Gonzalez and Duffy.

By Jim

January 1, 2007 11:23 AM | Link to this

JCB (or John Schuerholz’ nephew)

Reading your reply blog reminded me of a guy I know that said “I had a roomate, but my mom moved out.” I’m happy for you and KC living in Fantasyland, a place of world peace, sunshine, no sickness, and equal opportunity for all. You obviously do not care the current plight of the Braves - Thanks Time Warner. If finishing below .500 and eating Turner Field ‘dogs makes you happy, then God bless you and yours. What do I have against Grinch Schuerholz you ask??? Regardless of the fact that Schuerholz’ relatives negotiated a peaceful settlement and the our city of Atlanta… he’s regressed into the pig-in-a-poke baseball mentally. We both know Time Warner has put the financial constraints on Johnny by choosing not to compete; however, John doesn’t have to act like Brad Childress’ brother (smug/arrogant/non-information). JCB - go on believing the Braves are a playoff team next season. I’m sure your mother can also read you some fairy tales and take you to Fantasyland. I should have known from your writing you were related to John Schuerholz (I already mentioned that earlier). Maybe your John Schuerholz Jr., and you’re going to be inserted into that All-Star 2B mix this spring with journeyman Willie Harris and phenom Kelly Johnson. It would make sense with John Schuerholz’ pig-in-a-poke management. NO Brian Roberts or Chone Figgins…. no we get Schuerholz JR., journeyman Harris, and “Langerhans” clone Johnson. But JCB, you go on living in Fantasyland where they’ve found a cure for cancer and the Braves are going to win the World Series. Thanks Time Warner. Before you call someone a horse’s whatever, I know you have a another popular saying … “I never met a mirror I didn’t fall in love with.” JCB, there is a center called ABC (Ability Bldg. Ctr)… I think that’s where you live buddy…

By BravesFaninRockies

January 1, 2007 11:24 AM | Link to this

Happy New Year to all in Braves land!

DOB, thanks for the update, as always. It’s good to see Hub’s working with KJ on his moves and footwork at 2B. I hope he can make the transition back to the IF.

The last Braves game I saw live was in Dodger Stadium, 1st half of ‘95. Before Frenchy and Mac were called up. Raul Mondesi was still on the team, for cryin’ out loud. This was just before KJ went on his hot streak. I recall him looking like Roy Hobbs at the plate and Chris Duncan in the field. Langy went in as a defensive replacement and made one of those diving, game-saving catches (only because Kolb had stunk it up and let a lead get away) that makes me hope we can find some way to keep the guy on the roster.

2007 looks full of promise. Health and happiness to all!

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 11:30 AM | Link to this

As far as the Pirate deal goes, if I were JS I would even consider asking for Matt Capps along with Gonzales. It may not be something the Pirates would do but the guy’s numbers are outstanding. With the additon of Capps the Braves could offer Paronto or Yates.

I still think a deal with the O’s or Angles could work as well. Huff doesn’t really play 1B that well and still didn’t solve the O’s need of wanting a left handed power hitting first baseman. As for the Angels, Hillenbrand is nice but his defense at 1st is horrendous. That is why the Giants didn’t attempt to keep him and the Yankees clearly stated that is why they had no interest in him. Honestly, I don’t understand the Angles reasoning in getting him because Dallas McPherson played very well at 3B last season. The only thought I have is that Hillenbrand is there to be the DH because the Angels know Rivera is going to be out for a length of time. I still think they would want LaRoche. I said earlier I didn’t know if I would make a trade for Figgins with LaRoche. But, if Erick Aybar or Casey Kotchman was included in the deal, I think I would have to do it just because of what Figgins can bring to the lineup. And as I have stated before Figgins can split time between 2B, 3B, and LF and by him playing some 2B it will allow Kelly Johnson to ease into the position. I know many disagree with me on this, but I really think the Braves need some speed in the lineup. It would help the power guys tremendously.

By BravesFaninRockies

January 1, 2007 11:33 AM | Link to this

Oops, I meant ‘05. My Bad.

And Jim, take a chill pill, please.

By KC

January 1, 2007 11:40 AM | Link to this

JIM: GREETINGS FROM FANTASY LAND!

You keep telling me how detached from reality I am, but you haven’t really answered any of the points I’ve made. I haven’t just told you what I believe, I’ve told you line for line why I believe that. Can you dispute any of the following:

• If Wickman and Soriano were in the Braves bullpen on opening day of last year, the Braves would be coming off a 90 win season, and 15th consecutive post-season berth.

• There is only a 10% chance of Mike Hampton suffering any ill-effects whatsoever from his TJ surgery next season.

• The bullpen looks solid with one of the premiere closers and setup men in baseball right now, and several other good young arms.

• The Braves were the best offensive team in the NL last year, and have lost nothing other than a 2nd baseman who couldn’t bat leadoff and struggled mightily last year.

Can you rationally dispute any of these points Jim? These 4 points disprove your notion of a 2007 “clone season”.

By David O'Brien

January 1, 2007 11:46 AM | Link to this

Agreed that Braves need another lefty go go with McBride; can’t ride McBride into the ground by the All-Star break.

While Gonzalez from Pittsburgh would obviously be the best lefty the Braves could get, if they can’t complete a trade for him there are others available, including a couple of proven free agents who might be cheap as spring training inches ever closer:

_ Ron Villone, who held lefty hitters to a .185 average with four homers (one by LaRoche, by the way) and .290 OBP in 108 at-bats last season;

_ Scott Schoenweis, who held lefty hitters to a .236 average with ZERO homers and a .625 OPS in 89 at-bats last season.

By TheSouthernJackAss

January 1, 2007 11:46 AM | Link to this

Just thought you morons might want to know that one of my good friends here in the blog(thank you jjs) has been kind enough to pay for my internet service in advance for the entire year of ‘07 thus allowing me to continue coming here day after day to blog with my best friends in the world—Yes, a full, continuous year of intelligent and thought provoking blogging with TheSouthernJackAss…”Happy New Year”…yous pukes!!!…GO NATS!!!…

By The Grinch

January 1, 2007 11:48 AM | Link to this

Oooohhhhh, my head. Could y’all not talk quite so loud, please?

By David O'Brien

January 1, 2007 11:52 AM | Link to this

Schoeneweis made $2.75 mill last season ($2.5 mill in 2005) with Toronto and Villone made $2.25 mill last season with the Yankees and $1.95 mill with Seattle in 2005.

Now I ask you, if you’re the Braves, don’t you find a way to offer Schoeneweis $3 mill RIGHT NOW so you can keep LaRoche, who will have even more trade value a year from now if he hits 35 or more homers and drives in 110 or so runs?

That way you can give Thorman plenty of ABs in LF and some at 1B and in a PH role, then have him move into 1B a year from now if LaRoche is too pricey.

By KC

January 1, 2007 12:01 PM | Link to this

DOB: I like it. They sound like good options. Has JS asked your opinion yet? =)

By David O'Brien

January 1, 2007 12:08 PM | Link to this

KC, not yet. But it’s a new year, so I’m by the phone in case John calls to begin a new era of working together for the greater good (ok, just thought I’d help some of you who might need to puke this morning).

By Ron

January 1, 2007 12:10 PM | Link to this

Some of yall keep on talkin about how important speed is and the importance of a true speedy leadoff man is. When we had Furcal from 2000 to 2005 seasons we did not win a playoff series, yes we won in 2001 but furcal did not play because he dislocated his shoulder earlier in the season. Completely OVERATED!!!!!

By MBATL

January 1, 2007 12:12 PM | Link to this

DOB, obvously Gonzo is more attractive and much cheaper, for much longer - and I for one am comfortable with trading Laroche, as I think he’ll have a hard time boosting his numbers any higher - but wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong, and I hope I am (if we keep him).

And I think Thorman is a player (and I thought he was a disaster in LF last year, but apparently the Braves feel he can play there… again, hope so…). I’m okay with turning 1B over to him, and would like to see “lights-out” pitching (to use a worn-out phrase).

I would assume that if we keep Laroche at, what, $3 mil or so?, it’s gonna be hard to “find the dollars” to sign a mid-reliever at $3 mil. From what I’ve read, the salary cap is pretty firm.

But, not a bad suggestion if the money is there.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 12:16 PM | Link to this

I agree with you on that, DOB. I had suggested going after Villone sometime back. Villone or Schoeneweis would be very nice options out of the pen. Could offer them a $2.5 mil contracts with incentives that would reach $3 mil. I, also think it would not be a bad idea to sign a Tony Armas or John Thomson. What do you think of those options, DOB? I am just thinking it might be nice to have Davies go and get one more good year or at least half a year in Richmond. If he dominates there, it could up his value, not to mention I would feel a bit better about the roation with a solid veteran anchoring the backend of it.

By JC FROM UT

January 1, 2007 12:21 PM | Link to this

DOB: You asked if the Braves should go after Shoenweiss now and perhaps hold on to Adam until next year. I say no. Trade Adam now for Gonzales. The Braves are going to need a closer sooner rather than later plus what everyone else has said about shortening the games this year. I dont think JS can take a chance of Adam having another great year or reverting back to his 04-05 ways. JS cannot also count on Wickman coming back again. Wickman has already contemplated retirement.Personally I would rather have the closer of the future already in the fold and take my chances with Thorman. Infact I would also try to sign Joe Randa to platoon with Thorman and also have him as insurance in case Chipper gets hurt. One more point. If,God forbid, the Braves are not in the playoff hunt at the trading deadline, JS could offer Wickman around for prospects or whatever and not have to worry about who will close the following year. What do you think about this scenario: Trade Hudson to Texas (I thhink they would be interessted since they missed out on Zito)and one of the middle infielders for Ian Kinsler(sp?) and CJ Wilson. Then try signing Mark Redman. I know he is not Hudson but Hudson has not been Hudson and it would save a lot of money to use else where like locking up the young core players or extendeing Smoltz. JS has to keep Smolts from going anywhere.

By Sam

January 1, 2007 12:23 PM | Link to this

Hi Braves fans, Don’t let JS brainwash you. I have been a Braves fan since they left Boston and I know my braves history. The baldelli trade will never happen, LaRoche will not happen. JS is a crap shooter…he is big talk and no action. I hope the Soriano trade is ok and their is nothing wrong with Soriano. I don’t like KJ at second base. Hey guys Mark Loretta is available…sign him for one year and see what happen. Remember the Bravos still need a leadoff hitter. Figgins is still available???

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 12:23 PM | Link to this

DOB, lets say Gregor Blanco goes into spring training and hits .350 with an OBP of .415 and steals 10 bases in 11 attempts. He shows he can hit leadoff. Would Cox give him the job in LF or send him back down to the minors?

By Mark Johnson

January 1, 2007 12:24 PM | Link to this

Cool reference to Greg Brown’s song, that is a great one, one of my favorites by him.

By David O'Brien

January 1, 2007 12:25 PM | Link to this

In case anyone was wondering, no, I don’t care that he (Schoeneweis) had a 4.88 ERA last season and would cost a draft pick because he was offered arbitration by the Reds.

Because you’re getting him to face lefties, and he was outstanding against them. By the way, he only allowed one run and recorded three saves in 16 games for the Reds after being trade from Toronto in August.

You give up a draft pick rather than give up a cog in next year’s lineup (LaRoche). You play to win now.

Of course, it probably won’t matter because the Yanks want him, which means they can blow Braves out of the water with an offer if they choose to.

The Braves could show their fans something, couldn’t they, by going out and signing a guy that big-market teams are also going after? Just one not-so-expensive guy.

By Jim

January 1, 2007 12:25 PM | Link to this

KC

I want to repeat the FACT that I’m on your side… I LOVE the Braves and want them to succeed. I’ve just reached the point of NO hope and frustration with Grinch Schuerholz at the helm backed by Time Warner (Thanks Time Warner). I’d love nothing more for David O’Brien’s next AJC column to read the Brave’s have acquired Mike Gonzalez and Chris Duffy. That’s the chill pill I need to stop the current plight all Braves fans are in. People keep saying “the Braves had the best offense in the NL last year.” Great, they still didn’t make the playoffs, NOT even close. The Braves couldn’t even afford to resign PH Daryle Ward. If that doesn’t send up financial warning flags then nothing should. Next *JCB is going to tell me that Brian Jordan is the best pinch hitter in MLB (greetings from Fantasyland JCB). KC, we both want the same thing - the Braves to win. David O’Brien, please please please inform us of the Mike Gonzalez acquistion in the NEAR future. Just some excitement or inkling that Time Warner wants to compete. KC, I’d love to make friendly wagers with you and LOSE. Best money I ever would spend. How about Mike Hampton winning more than 9 games? How about the Braves finishing no less the Wild Card???? More importantly, how about Grinch Schuerholz making a trade???? I’ve love to lose money that way!!! So before you think we are so far apart, I believe we have the same goals in mind, for our beloved Braves to win. C’mon David, it’s up to you now to inform us of our next significant John Schuerholz trade.

By Lew

January 1, 2007 12:28 PM | Link to this

I would like to point something out to all of you that think stolen bases are what makes teams go. In 2006, there were 24 ML players with more than 20 SB. 7 in the NL and 4 in the AL were with playoff teams. The Mets had two, the Padres 3, the Dodgers had 2 and the Yankees had 2. The Twins and Tigers had one each. The Twins, Yankees, Dodgers and Padres were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs-the Mets were eliminated in the LCS. This means that only one player with more than 20SB was in the World Series and the Cardinals, who won it all, didn’t even have one player with 20 SB. Someone mentioned Eckstein. He had 7 SB for the season. You make the determination about the impoortance of stolen bases. I just don’t see that it adds up to winning.

By MBATL

January 1, 2007 12:32 PM | Link to this

If we did have a few dollars to play with, I’d much rather have seen us keep Giles at $4.5 mil or so (coming off a bad year, I don’t think he’d have won at arbitration, and probably would’ve accepted a contract offer if we’d have made one), and traded Laroche for Gonzalez. Then you’d have 2B covered, a great bullpen, a quality prospect taking over at 1B, and the only real hole to fill would be CF when AJ walks.

Water under the bridge now, of course, but if it turns out we’ve got salary flexibility, I think letting Giles walk was a mistake.

AS to “leadoff”, I’d like to have a speedy guy, but I really think “team speed” is a lot more important, and we’re not even close to having that. Franceour is the only guy who can run, and he hasn’t figured out how to steal bases yet; Renteria can steal a few; and AJ has completely abandoned the idea of running … so it’s bashball for the foreseeable future.

By David O'Brien

January 1, 2007 12:34 PM | Link to this

Robert, can’t answer that hypothetical question about Blanco seven-plus weeks before position players report for spring training, especially not given any other conditions _ how the others do this spring, what may or may not happen between now and then, etc.

By Ron

January 1, 2007 12:42 PM | Link to this

I agree with yall that Littlefield is a complete idiot. If the Duffy thing is the only holdup, he is crazy. It must be more to it than that, It Must be. The Closer for an AWFUL team is overated, A Power hitting, and future Gold Glove winner, and 1 year younger than your Closer, is a Must, especially in that park, and he will play in at least 140 games, while their Closer might only get 30 saves. Heck just read Earlier that the RedSox are trying to trade for Cordero. And the Nats are looking to get 3 pitchers. 1 major leager and 2 minor leagers that are decent. The Major leager is Hansley, or whatever his name is, the dude that was drafted 1 pick before Devine a few years ago. Hansley has not done anything. That is a bargain for Cordero, and for Littlefield getting LaRoche. Is it me or did the free agents get really rich, with that being said, if the Pirates can get a 27 year old, 3 more years until a free agent, gold glover, great offense, in that park. They dont have to overpay, they will be underpaying for LaRoche, how the heck are the Braves not getting a Better package for LaRoche in this market. Thanks Littlefield, you almost pulled one on JS, but you are too STUPID to realize that. I am so glad that we will keep LaRoche, man Littlefield is stupid!!!!!! How does this man have a job?

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 12:46 PM | Link to this

Lew, I understand your point about stolen bases but what about speed in general. Speed does a lot more than steal bases. I find it interesting though that the Cards had a much better leadoff hitter than the Tigers and won. Same could be said in ‘05 of the White Sox over the Astros. How about in ‘04 with the Red Sox over the Cardinals. In ‘03 the Marlins over the Yankees. In ‘02 the Angles over the Giants. I’m not suggesting by any means that those teams won soley because of their leadoff hitters because that would be asinine. But, in every one of those cases the winning team’s leadoff hitter played a significant role in the team’s success.

A good lineup is balanced and has speed and power. Its nice to throw numbers around and I love numbers as much as anyone. However, you can make numbers say whatever you want. You can point to Figgins and say the Angels didn’t make the playoffs but that wasn’t because of Figgins. The Angels’ offense lacked power. I’ll say this. Go ask the Mets, Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, and Twins and ask them if they would trade away thier leadoff hitters from last year because in reality they weren’t that important. Ask the Astros how important a leadoff hitter is. If Taveras had done all season what he did in the last two months the Astros wouldn’t have had to go down to the last day with the Cards. What kills me is how many people on here rip Giles to this day about his lack of productivity from the leadoff spot but then turn around and say that it doesn’t matter who bats leadoff. Does that make good sense?

By Ron

January 1, 2007 12:51 PM | Link to this

DOB, you think Dale Murphy will ever make the Hall of Fame? I was looking up Andre Dawsons numbers the other day, How the Hell is he not in the Hall, man he deserves it more than alot of people, his SB, Hits, Homeruns, Gold Gloves, Good Average, He was unbelievable, If someone on here does not think Dawsons a Hall of Famer look up his numbers, and if you still dont think he is a Hall of Famer, explain to me why he should not be, maybe I am missing something?

By journalist jimmy smith

January 1, 2007 12:52 PM | Link to this

jackass, that was not jimmy smith who paid your internet bill - must have been your new best friend, stinky. his check should have come in last week. anyway, journalist looks forward to engaging conversation with the sda in the coming months. happy new year. now, baseball … we can be thankful the braves are not the mess that the falcons are. and lew, the braves won’t steal many bases until the signs are changed. finger to the nose means hold your base. confusing to all.

By Rosalynn

January 1, 2007 12:53 PM | Link to this

HAPPA NEW YEAH!!

By Ron

January 1, 2007 12:55 PM | Link to this

Robert, dude you do realize that we never won a playoff series with Furcal. And he was a speedy leadoff man, Speedy leadoff man is Overated.

By Jared

January 1, 2007 01:00 PM | Link to this

I’d do LaRoche for Gonzalez only if Schuerholz assured everybody he wouldn’t turn around and give the Yankees Gonzalez for some overrated junk.

But Schuerholz already had the chance to do that trade. I can’t see him going back and now doing it unless the Pirates throw in something more. He supposedly pulled the offer after he got Rafael Soriano. Don’t know why, I guess the Braves think Gonzalez’s elbow may be a real problem, or they were just using the Pirates to make the Mariners desperate to complete that trade.

By MBATL

January 1, 2007 01:00 PM | Link to this

Where is it written that Renteria can’t bat leadoff? He’s averaged 27 SB for his career, has a fine OBP, and doesn’t strike out TOO much. I’m not saying it’s ideal, but he seems a better fit than Giles was.

By Lew

January 1, 2007 01:02 PM | Link to this

Jim-I understand your frustration over last season, but your pessimism about this season and the future is way uncalled for. You talk about the potency of our offense last year and still coming in with a losing season. Dude, the problem wasn’t the offense-it was the pitching-primarily the bullpen. The bullpen issues have been well addressed with Wickman and Soriano. Remlinger, Reitsma and Sosa are gone. Thomson and Ramirez are gone. Everyone that is left had substantially better seasons to begin with and definitely were good at the end of the season. We have Hampton returning and while I realize this doesn’t inspire you with confidence, all indications are that he wil be back in fairly good form to start and should improve considerably as the season progresses. So we have to replace Giles. Big flipping deal. I liked the little Dude, but all you really have to replace is a .262 average with damn little power. I think any of the three potential 2B will suffice just fine. As far as left field and leadoff. We are no worse than we were last year, as we still have Langerhans and Diaz, as well as Thorman (providing he doesn’t become first baseman). I just don’t see the reason for your pessimism. You call JS “Grinch Scheurholz”. Why? He has taken nothing from the Braves and considering the financial restraints placed on him by the Braves’ impending sale, he has done a phenomenal job. He isn’t finished yet, either. There’s plenty of time left before the season starts. Dude, I wasn’t happy about last year, either. But I just don’t see Chipper half killing himself on a lousy field again. That is what caused his injury problems last year, including his oblique injury -not his toes. He played through that pain and still kicked a$$. With the exception of RBI’s, his stats were higher avg than Wright, the same number of HR’s as Wright and the same number of walks as Wright-all in 44 less games, yet many consider Wright to be superior-he’s not, just younger. We aren’t likely to have a 6-23 month again (we never did even when the Braves sucked in the 80’s) and with the revamped bullpen (likely to improve some more), it is doubtful we will blow 29 saves again, either. Cut the team and JS some slack. I promise things are no where near as dire as you suggest.

By Lew

January 1, 2007 01:08 PM | Link to this

RJIB-Sure, overall speed is a plus, but if you realistically look at it, the Braves have that. No one will ever claim Andruw is fast down the first base line (probably because of his backswing), but did you see him move when he was on base? He took extra bases and scored frequently. Chipper is no speed demon, either, but runs the bases well, as does most of the team. The Braves under BC have NEVER run that much. Earlier this year someone posted before BC and during BC numbers for all of our speedy players (NIxon, Deion, Furcal, etc) and they stole mush less under BC. I think stolen bases are totally overrated, but we already have good running skills on the tem.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 01:15 PM | Link to this

DOB, here you are our fearless leader and I don’t think any of has asked you how your New Year’s Eve went. So, how was did it go?

By journalist jimmy smith

January 1, 2007 01:20 PM | Link to this

it is good to see toes being discussed on the blog on this first day of the new year. the importance of healthy toes cannot be over-emphasized. as go the toes, so go the braves. toes are not to be trifled with.

now, blackeyed peas and cornbread. this journalist has been gathering blackeyed peas for weeks and they are now cooking. soon, this journalist will be enjoying the traditional new years day feast of blackeyed peas, cornbread, and whatever else -gotta save room for the peas.

now, grinch did not appear to be in very good shape in that earlier post.

falcons have a press conference scheduled for right about now. maybe vick will be allowed to coach and play quarterback. we shall see.

now, baseball … lew, why did the braves steal less mush?

By Efrim D

January 1, 2007 01:24 PM | Link to this

Happy New Year guys….KC, I love your optimistic attitude about next season. There is a decent chance the Braves could finish fourth in the division. Although the Marlins boast a great rotation, better than the Braves, I still think the Braves will finish ahead of them. The Marlins bullpen is not strong. The Phillies did add Freddy Garcia as well as Adam Eaton. Now I know Adam Eaton is not a good pitcher, but I bet you would take Freddy Garcia over Mike Hampton right now. I think Cole Hamels is a future Number 1 starter basically because he has the ability to strike out a guy an inning. Brett Myers is a front of the rotation type starter as well. They also two young players that I would take over any of the young postional players the Braves have. And then there are the Mets. But I just wont go there. Also, the Padres have a tremendous pitching staff next year. 1-12 they have quality pitchers. Peavy, Young, Maddux and Hensley are as good a rotation as their is in the NL. If they had any hitter capable of hitting 35 homers, then they would be my favorite to win the pennant next year.

By Lew

January 1, 2007 01:31 PM | Link to this

Esteemed Journalist-The cornbread just came out of the oven. I don’t know about the mush, but under BC, the Braves stole less of it. Must have been the migration of the Musk Oxen to Cordele. That’s the only reason I can think of. (Damn you Al Gore, we were blissful in our ignorance).

By Lew

January 1, 2007 01:45 PM | Link to this

Efrim-The Marlins are a team waiting for the sophomore slump to hit the team as a whole. Dan Uggla will not put up the same numbers and Hanley Ramirez was just pulled out of winter ball with a shoulder problem. Two of their pitchers are due for injury or just reduced effectiveness this season, because of severe overuse in 06 as opposed to 05. The Phillies may well have improved their rotation, but they still have to pitch in Philadelphia, where the stadium is a total joke. Chase Utley will also not put up comparable numbers, he already had his career year. The Padres will have no bearing on the East, either. The Braves will not come in fourth. They will win the division.

By David O'Brien

January 1, 2007 01:58 PM | Link to this

Ron, that was an interesting stat about Braves never winning a playoff series with Furcal. Hard to believe, but true….

Robert, the night was bor-ring for me. Nothing to report, but that I’m here, alive and well. All I can ask….

JJS, since you referred to Falcons, a question for you and others: Who’d have thunk, a little less than two years ago when the Falcons were in the NFC championship game in Mora’s first year as a head coach, that Bobby Cox would outlast him as a head coach/manager in Atlanta? Just curious.

By KC

January 1, 2007 02:01 PM | Link to this

Efrim D:

It’s funny… I can’t get any of the other Braves critics around here to answer a couple of simple questions. Maybe you’d be willing to. Here are 4 points I asked Jim earlier (though he didn’t answer them)…

True or false:

• If Wickman and Soriano had been in the Braves bullpen on opening day of last year, the Braves would be coming off a 90-plus win season, and a 15th consecutive post-season berth.

• There is only a 10% chance of Mike Hampton suffering any ill-effects whatsoever from his TJ surgery next season.

• The bullpen looks solid with one of the premiere closers and setup men in baseball right now, and several other good young arms.

• The Braves were the best offensive team in the NL last year, and have lost nothing other than a 2nd baseman who couldn’t bat leadoff and struggled mightily last year.

Are these statements true or false, Efrim?

By journalist jimmy smith

January 1, 2007 02:24 PM | Link to this

dob, it certainly proves that bobby has sticking power :-)! the question now is, what value does mora have in the marketplace? some may think he was in a no-win deal with vick and company. is he a nfl head coach, an assistant, or a college coach? journalist hopes he learned from this and lands on his feet. that first year was special.

don’t know if vick is a coach killer or not, but that job looks a lot like an outsider going in to manage a family business - “now, do whatever you need to do but let me explain about my son mike and his special deal …”

now, baseball … is chipper eating blackeyed peas and cornbread today? or perhaps chipper is having autographed venison? chipper said he might go back to cheeseburgers and fries after eating healthy and falling apart last season. what is the food for healthy toes? prize for the correct answer.

By Efrim D

January 1, 2007 02:24 PM | Link to this

Bob Wickman is not a premiere closer in Baseball.

I will list all that are a better bet than him in 2007.

National League:

Wagner Cordero Lidge (I don’t care what struggles he had last year, I take him over big Bob) Mike Gonzalez Isringhausen Hoffman Saito

American League

Rivera Ryan Ray Jenks Todd Jones( him and Wickman are dead even) Nathan F. Rodriguez Putz Street

I don’t care about stats with this debate. He doesn’t have good stuff. He is a ONE INNING PITCHER. Rarely is brought on in the eighth. Im not saying Bob Wickman is terrible. But don’t think he is “one of baseball’s premiere closers”. Now KC, I want you to list all of the closer’s better than Bob Wickman…..but I guess you would rather have the Wickster instead of Mo Rivera??? Right?? Premiere to me, is a top 10 closer in baseball. He is not.

By KC

January 1, 2007 02:25 PM | Link to this

I’ll throw one more TRUE OR FALSE question into the mix:

The Braves had 3 starters on the DL at any given time, pretty much the entire season last year, and actually had 4 starters down all at once for a while (Hampton, Ramirez, Davies, Thompson). This is not likely to be the case in ‘07.

T/F?

By Efrim D

January 1, 2007 02:30 PM | Link to this

As far as your four points go, the first is true. They lost a lot of one run games last year. I think they would of won 88-90 last year. But they still werent better than the Mets. Second point is true. What do you expect out of Mike Hampton though? 20 WINS??? 15? 12? Third point, I just posted above what I think of Wickman. Soriano is great, top 5 eighth inning reliever in baseball. Lastly, they have a very good offensive team, but a different one if Chipper is out of the lineup. You can’t expect him to play more than 120 games next year. How could you?

By The Grinch

January 1, 2007 02:38 PM | Link to this

Morning, all. I’m beginning to think I might make it now. JJS, you forgot collards. Cornbread, blackeyed peas and collards must be consumed today (collards represent money in the tradition). My guess on the toe-healthy food…toe-fu? Even safe for vegans. Now, orange juice. Orange juice is high in potassium which regulates heart rate and is leached out of the system by alcohol-dehydration. Grinch must drink some (orange juice, not alcohol).

By NYM

January 1, 2007 02:38 PM | Link to this

Lew in an earlier post you said the Braves had good speed?? They were dead last in the NL in stolen bases dept. The Mets were first. I disagree with you that stolen bases are over-rated. More stolen based mean more men is scoriing position (oppotunities). It also distracts the pitcher and puts added pressure on the defense. Speeds adds another dimension to you team/offense. Sorry for the disagreement…….

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 02:51 PM | Link to this

NYM, I have to agree with you. Speed does so much for an offense. It does distract pitchers. Nobody can tell me that if Jose Reyes is on 1st or 2nd that at least half of the pitcher’s attention is on him. Speed at the top of the lineup that can steal 2nd takes immense pressure off of the #2 hitter. Speed changes the entire approach of how a pitcher attacks an offense. I know many disagree but I think speed can make an offense a hell of a lot better one than an offense that doesn’t have it.

By NYM

January 1, 2007 03:05 PM | Link to this

Robert(JITB), Did you read my post??? I said that speed IS an asset.

By KC

January 1, 2007 03:08 PM | Link to this

Efrim: Here ya go my friend. He looks top 10 to me.

CLOSING RATIOS OVER THE PAST TWO SEASONS:

(of the closers you mentioned that have pitched more than one season as a major league closer)

1. Rivera: 78 of 84 (93%).

2. Nathan: 79 of 86 (92%).

3. Hoffman: 89 of 97 (92%).

4. Wagner: 78 of 86 (91%)

5. Cordero: 76 of 87 (91%).

6. Rodgriguez: 92 of 101 (91%).

7. Wickman: 78 of 87 (90%).

8. BJ Ryan: 74 of 83 (89%).

9. Jones: 78 of 88 (89%).

10. Lidge: 74 of 84 (88%).

11. Isringhausen: 72 of 86 (84%).

Gonzalez, Putz, and Saito were all extremely impressive, but have only pitched one season each as a closer at the major league level. That’s not to say they don’t deserve to be mentioned as premiere closers… but I’ll give them at least one more year before I evaluate them next to multi-year established closers.

Also keep in mind… Wickman as a Brave: 1.04 ERA, converted 18 of 19 save opportunities (95%).

By NYM

January 1, 2007 03:11 PM | Link to this

My bad Robert(JITB), I thought you wrote “Disagreed”…….Sorry Dude.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 03:12 PM | Link to this

So, the Falcons fired Mora. Well, maybe now they can get somebody in here who can structure an offense aroudnd Vick that utilizes his strengths. I know so many hate Vick but the guy is immensely talented and quite honestly doesn’t have the weapons around him. Those receivers are terrible except Crumpler.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 03:13 PM | Link to this

NYM, I wasn’t referring to you. I was referring to those who think hitting leadoff is overrated and that speed doens’t really matter.

By KC

January 1, 2007 03:24 PM | Link to this

Efrim:

No, I don’t expect 20 wins out of Hampton. While it’s very likely that he’ll be just fine health-wise, there’s a good chance that it will take him a little while to shake of the rust.

If I had to guess, I’d say that he’ll be mediocre in the first half (an ERA between 4.00-4.50), and very good in the 2nd half (ERA in the low-3.00 range or better). That’s pretty well in keeping with what Hampton has done since coming to Atlanta anyway. In 03’ and 04’, he was two different pitchers before and after the break. In 2005, he finally came roaring out of the gate, only to wind up on the DL a couple months into the season, and eventually under the knife. Bummer.

Anyway, no… 20 wins would be amazing, but not at all likely. I think the best we should hope for is 15 wins from Hampton this season if all goes very well. For the season as a whole, my prediction would be 14-8, with a 3.80 ERA. The thing Atlanta has to hope is that he will get better and better as the season moves along. If he can really settle in at some point in the 2nd half of the season, it will put the Braves in a great situation heading into September and October.

As for Chipper… he missed 52 games last season, and the Braves were still the best offensive team in the league. Not much is likely to change. He’ll spend time on the DL, and the Braves will still score plenty of runs.

By KC

January 1, 2007 03:31 PM | Link to this

Efrim: To answer your question… no, I would not rather have Wickman than Rivera. But I would rank Wickman in the top-10 of all MLB closers right now (probably right at 10).

If you want to say that there are closers in baseball that are better than Wickman, I won’t argue with you. I agree. But I can’t understand why you keep talking about this guy like he’s chopped liver. A 2.57 ERA and a 90% save-conversion ratio (over the past 2 years) is pretty damned good. And he was almost perfect as a Brave last year. What do you have against this guy? I don’t get it.

The bottom line is that everyone in the Braves dugout, and in the stands for that matter, feels very good when Wickman gets the ball in the 9th. All of the best closers in baseball will get the save 9 out of 10 times. Wickman is among that group.

By Efrim D

January 1, 2007 03:33 PM | Link to this

All the save stats are great. For next year, I take Gonzalez, Saito and Putz over Wickman. But KC, I don’t need statistics. I want your opinion of the top 15 closers in baseball(right now) and where you rank em. This doesnt have to include the statistics over the last few years. Just the player. Personally here is my list

1. Rivera
2. Nathan
3. F. Rodriguez
4. BJ Ryan
5. Wagner
6. Hoffman
7. Lidge
8. Cordero
9. Street
10. Putz
11. Saito
12. Isringhausen
13. Jenks
14. Gonzalez
15. Ray
16. Wickman/Todd Jones

Ive never really seen Bob Wickman get outs in big spots in my life. Now, a lot of these guys havent. Putz, Gonzalez, Ryan, Cordero. Among others. Lidge is bad in a big game. But all of those guys have a lot better stuff than Bob Wickman. If you were to poll people in Baseball, they would take at least 10 guys over Wickman. He is 16 to me. I could easily see him at 11 or 12 in some lists. The top 6 in that list are the BEST closers in the league. You couldn’t argue that. 7-11 to me, are guys just flat out better than the Wickster. The rest you can shuffle around. But Bob Wickman is not a “premiere” or elite closer in this league. Todd Jones reminds me of Bob Wickman. Of course, he shut the door in big games against the Yankees in the postseason. Wickman has not.

By Efrim D

January 1, 2007 03:40 PM | Link to this

I also remember something an ESPN analyst said in a breakdown of the Braves struggles last year. “They can’t pitch”. He went on to say “More importantly, they can’t strike anyone out”. This is a problem the Braves are going to run into next year. I was suprised to see Chuck James punched out 91 in 119 innings. That is pretty solid. But good lord, Hampton and Hudson just don;t miss bats anymore. And their relievers, other than Soriano, don’t either. Im a negative Braves fan if you havent guessed it. Im just jealous of other teams that have guys like Homer Bailey and Phillip Hughes in their system. When we just don’t have power arms. By the way, Baseball America comes out with the Braves Top Ten Prospects list tomorrow. And John Kruk was the ESPN analyst. I don’t love Kruk, but he has a point.

By KC

January 1, 2007 03:53 PM | Link to this

Efrim:

My opinion is not separate from that stats, because my views are based on those stats. Statistics are simply a measurement of results; the facts. And those facts are more accurate than either your opinion or mine.

The reality is that when it comes to save-conversion ratio (and that’s what a closer’s job is all about)… all of the best closers in baseball are within about 4 percentage points of one another. I would be very happy to have nearly any of the closers you mentioned.

If I read in the paper that the Braves traded Wickman straight up for most any of the other closers on your list, I wouldn’t be upset at all. Nor would I be ecstatic (as far as next season is concerned). Most of the other guys on your list would constitute neither significant improvement or a drop-off from Bob Wickman. In my view, you’re asking me if I’d rather have a Benz or a BMW… and my answer is “hell, I’m happy to have either”.

I do prefer Wickman over Jones, Isringhausen, or Lidge (given the season he’s coming off of), but they’re all fine closers as well (assuming Lidge can bounce back).

Now obviously, one thing is that Wickman is getting old. So he’s not our closer of the future… but simply our closer of the present. The Mike Gonzalez trade would put us in a better position for next season (and the one after that), but this year… I think we’re better off keeping LaRoche, know that Soriano and Wickman will do a fine job in the 8th/9th (with some other good arms in the pen as well).

By The Grinch

January 1, 2007 04:07 PM | Link to this

Wickman does not have great stuff, he is old and getting older, and will not likely be as effective this year as he was last year. HOWEVER, he is highly experienced, has good location, is not easily rattled, and when he steps on the mound in the 9th he doesn’t make me reach for the tequilla like our last few “closers.” That works for me.

By KC

January 1, 2007 04:10 PM | Link to this

Efrim:

How long have you been a Braves fan? Do you remember guys named Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine in their prime? In ’94 and ’95, Maddux turned in the most amazing seasons of our generation with ERA’s of around 1.50. He did it with the philosophy of pitching to contact, and allowing your defense to work. Guys who can get outs without necessarily having to have a strikeout can work more efficiently, and usually get better defense from the guys behind him buy keeping them involved and on their toes.

Please don’t tell me you have to strike guys out to be successful. That just ain’t so.

By KC

January 1, 2007 04:13 PM | Link to this

Atlantabraves.com/Mark Bowman: When one looks at the team the Braves will take into the 2007 season, they’ll see a capable offense and a starting rotation that has potential to be one of the NL’s finest. But most importantly, they’ll see that the bullpen, which proved so destructive in 2006, has assumed a seemingly improved look.

Unlike last year, when they hoped a number of unproven arms would provide late-inning reliability, the Braves enter 2007 feeling confident about their bullpen. Bob Wickman, who brought some sanity for the final two months of the 2006 season, returns to serve as the closer and the recently acquired Rafael Soriano comes to Atlanta with some believing that he could be one of the game’s top right-handed middle men. Take into account that Tyler Yates and Macay McBride have matured through last year’s struggles and it’s quite obvious that this bullpen is much different than the one that blew 29 of 67 save opportunities last year.

“We scored plenty of runs to win the division,” said manager Bobby Cox, thinking back to the 2006 season in which his team scored the second-most runs in the NL. “We just didn’t hold people late in the game.”

Last year’s bullpen struggles may have prevented John Smoltz from capturing his second NL Cy Young Award. His 16-win season came despite the fact that the relief corps blew six of the leads that he handed them.

With Smoltz back and Mike Hampton returning from Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery, the Braves starting rotation consists of three former 20-game winners. Rounding out that trio is Tim Hudson, who coming off two mediocre seasons, has committed himself to proving he can return to his successful ways of the past.

Adding to the rotation’s strength will be the return of Chuck James, who proved to be one of the game’s top rookie pitchers for the final three months of the 2006 season. He’ll likely team with Kyle Davies to provide the rotation with what the Braves hope will prove to be solid depth.

It appears the Braves will once again enter this season without a legitimate leadoff hitter. But because of the success they enjoyed last year, they don’t believe this will prove to be a detriment to their offense, which will once again be powered by the presence of Andruw Jones.

With this quite possibly being Jones’ final year with the Braves, he’ll be looking to compile the big numbers necessary to assure the big payday he’ll receive via free agency. His production will improve if Chipper Jones is finally able to avoid the health problems that have sidelined him for a majority of the previous two seasons.

This lineup will also be strengthened by the returns of Edgar Renteria, Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur. Entering what will be their second full big-league seasons, Francoeur and McCann should continue to show the maturity that could enable them to be considered among the game’s elite players.

“I really like our team,” Cox said. “If we can stay healthy, we’ve got a chance to win a lot of games.”

By journalist jimmy smith

January 1, 2007 04:18 PM | Link to this

for good toe health, foods high in potassium are recommended. baked potatoe, banana, cantaloupe, lima beans, orange juice (grinch, take note). this is to avoid the dreaded gout that affects the toes of many. famous ballplayers with gout include david wells, steve kline, and kirk rueter (all pitchers? hmmm…). and what if chipper gets the gout in his toe(s)? just a rumor - could be fatal.

now, jim mora is gone and who will come to the falcons as head coach? how about frank beamer? - already knows what to expect from vick and maybe can get everyone playing together.

now, ga tech is scoring a lot of points today. will they score enough? need at least 4 more right now. two safeties?

By Ron Roberts

January 1, 2007 04:22 PM | Link to this

MBATL makes a good point, one that I’ve wondered a lot myself: why can’t Edgar Rentaria be a viable leadoff candidate? The guy hits, hits for average and is capable of delivering extra base-hits, too.

KC, Efrim, can you guys just agree to disagree and get on w/the events of the world? Here’s what we all know, fellas….

Efrim, if you are a Braves fan, you’re about the most pessimistic Braves fan around…

KC, we know you are a Braves fan, but you might well be the most optimistic Braves fan around…

..you’re on opposite ends of the spectrum. Staunch republicans and democrats agree more than you two.

So leave it at that, guys. Ya both make quantiative opinions, based on various stats, and you both use ‘em to prove your point(s). Great.

Meanwhile, there’s a ton of great football games on, the Falcons need a new head coach, the Thrashers are in first place (still!!!) and there’s a whole world going on outside this blog.

Go Braves!

Oh, and I mean no disrespect… this is just carrying on for-ever.

By KC

January 1, 2007 04:25 PM | Link to this

ajc.com/Walter Reeves:

Wooden nest eggs work best with laying hens

Q: I have four laying hens, but I am an amateur at country life. The birds range free during the day. Someone told me to leave an egg marked with an “X” in the nest that the chickens use most for laying. I boiled an egg and placed it in a nest. After a few days the egg with the “X” was gone. Did a snake take it?

A: Putting false eggs in a nest is a time-honored way to attract laying hens to one spot, so they don’t scatter them across their range. This is the origin of the term “nest egg.” We commonly found snakes in the chicken houses of my family’s farm. A snake might be the culprit in your henhouse, but a possum is more likely — the rotten egg smell would be very attractive. Cold weather limits the movement of snakes. Next time, buy a couple of wooden eggs from a craft store, paint them white and mark them with an “X.” That will make them unattractive to possums and, if a snake swallows it, it will have a terrible case of indigestion!

By KC

January 1, 2007 04:33 PM | Link to this

The only caveat I would interject into Mark Bowman’s column would be the “Hudson coming off two mediocre seasons” thing.

As I’ve pointed out many times… Hudson’s 05’ season was mediocre by Tim Hudson standards, but very good by MLB standards.

As for the rest of it… I completely concur.

By Stinky

January 1, 2007 04:34 PM | Link to this

This blog is full of laying hens. Go Tigers!

By journalist jimmy smith

January 1, 2007 04:41 PM | Link to this

oh, well … stinky is back. journalist out. happy new year everybody!

By AdirondackDave

January 1, 2007 04:41 PM | Link to this

DOB — What are your thoughts about the question of Renteria leading off? Bobby feels that he is an ideal #2 hitter because he handles the bat so well, can move the runner along, as well as hit for a good average. In fact, however, Renteria seems to do well wherever he hits. I remember him being a strong #6 hitter for a while in St. Louis. This guy is a mature, talented, team player and I would guess you could bat him anywhere from 1-7 other than clean-up and do ok. Am I wrong?

By AdirondackDave

January 1, 2007 04:53 PM | Link to this

DOB — What are your thoughts about the question of Renteria leading off? Bobby feels that he is an ideal #2 hitter because he handles the bat so well, can move the runner along, as well as hit for a good average. In fact, however, Renteria seems to do well wherever he hits. I remember him being a strong #6 hitter for a while in St. Louis. This guy is a mature, talented, team player and I would guess you could bat him anywhere from 1-7 other than clean-up and do ok. Am I wrong?

By Efrim D

January 1, 2007 05:06 PM | Link to this

KC, Stay away from Dayn Perry’s article on Foxsports.com. You would be very dissapointed. His last paragraph made me upset.

By KC

January 1, 2007 05:15 PM | Link to this

The 4:25 post was not made by me. Very funny though.

RonRoberts, yeah but if we all start agreeing, this blog will get boring in a hurry. =)

By Wayne in Utah

January 1, 2007 05:21 PM | Link to this

Adirondack Excellent points on Rent-a-SS. I suspect if nobody else proves head and shoulders above the rest of the leadoff candidates (2B and LF), that they may give Edgar a shot at leadoff.

What a pleasant acquisition he has turned out to be, especially with the Bosox paying part of his salary. I would love to see him get a day off about 2x per month though. I think that would help him down the stretch )(also would help Frenchie too).

Happy New Year all.

By KC

January 1, 2007 05:30 PM | Link to this

Efrim:

Well you know now that you’ve said that, I’m going to have to read it out of curiosity! LOL!

By Lew

January 1, 2007 05:39 PM | Link to this

NYM-Did you see my earlier post on stolen bases and playoff teams? Only one player in the WS had over 20SB and he was on the losing team. The Mets had two players with more than 2oSB, the Padres had 3 and they didn’t make it out of the league playoffs. As a matter of fact, 13 of the 24 players in ALL of MLB with 20 or more SB, didn’t even make it to the playoffs. The Braves never won a playoff series with Rafael Furcal’s speed. Apparently they don’t translate to ultimate victory, do they? As far as what I said about the Braves speed was that they had good team speed-not that they stole bases. They were good at taking the extra base and good at running the bases in general. For example, watch Andruw go from first to third as opposed to from home to first. I think you would be surprised at the difference.

By Lew

January 1, 2007 05:44 PM | Link to this

Grinch-Tofu is not an edible substance, despite rumors to the contrary.

By KC

January 1, 2007 05:47 PM | Link to this

Efrim: Okay… I read it. Hey, Dayn Perry’s an idiot. I’ve known that for a while. Frankly, I think there are many national writers who really aren’t paying much attention. They look at it on the surface, and say “all they did was add Soriano”. It appears to them that not much will have changed, but I think that’s far from the truth.

A number of things are likely to be different in ’07:

• The Braves had 3 or 4 starters on the DL at any given time last year. Pretty hard to win that way. The two most injury prone starters are gone (Thompson and Ramirez), which will strengthen the reliability of the starting staff.

• A healthy Mike Hampton will make his return after a full 18 month recovery.

• Hudson is likely to pitch better.

• Atlanta will have the benefit of Chuck James in the rotation for a full season. He won 11 games in only 18 starts last season.

• Bob Wickman and Soriano will be waiting in the pen on opening day. That’s a slight improvement on the dynamic duo of Remlinger and Reitsma, don’t you think! lol

• An experienced Macay McBride and Tyler Yates will give the Braves solid middle relief. This isn’t totally different from 06’, since they were very good toward the end of the season, but the Braves certainly didn’t have that on opening day last year. And Villarreal was a different pitcher by the end of last season, seemingly having regained is Arizona form (1.42 ERA in 19 innings in Sept).

• Blaine Boyer, 3.11 ERA in 05’ (regarded as possible future closer), will be healthy and back in the bullpen.

People like Dayn Perry are casual observers, and are not looking very closely at what the Braves have. I think Mark Bowman’s column outlined it nicely. Maybe I should email it to Dayn to help him get a clue.

By Wayne in Utah

January 1, 2007 06:06 PM | Link to this

It seems that Dayn (I can’t spell worth a darn) Perry has written another glowing report on his beloved Mets. Why doesn’t he just come out and say he has a man crush on Omar and all the Mets.

Oh, well, I suppose that’s what makes this time of year so interesting.

KC I guess with the O’s picking up Huff, that negates their desire for LaRoche. Also, you were correct in the prior article/blogs that we are now firmly in the drivers seat. I would think that we should offer LaRoche and Langerhans for Gonzo and Duffy, and see if he bites. If we get Duffy, he is almost as good an OF as Langerhans, and probably a better hitting prospect. 26 of 27 SB’s last year, and a killer year in ‘05. I think the kid has a huge upside. Doesn’t guarantee success, but heck, what does?

By David O'Brien

January 1, 2007 06:32 PM | Link to this

AdirondackDave, it’s not just Bobby who feels that way about Renteria. Ask anyone in baseball who in today’s game is an excellent No. 2 hitter, and Renteria will be in just about everyone’s top five. None other than Marcus Giles told me last year for a story I did on Edgar that he (Edgar) had the best bat control of anyone he (Giles) ever saw, and that he was perfect in the 2-hole because he can hit behind runners and punch balls through the right side of the infield as if it’s easy, which it’s obviously not, as you can tell watching most other hitters try to do it when they’re in an obvious situation calling for such situational hitting.

Could he hit leadoff? I have no doubt he could, and probably do it pretty well. But not as well as he does at No. 2. Maybe they’ll try it if there’s just no other options, but I ask you, by taking Renteria out of his best spot (and yes, he was also real good with St. Louis hitting down in the order at No. 6) and batting him leadoff, where he’s not hit very much in his career, aren’t you doing the same thing that you did to Giles last year, when you took him out of his best spot (No. 2) and had him hit leadoff?

Only this time, you’d be doing it when you don’t have a better No. 2 hitter (Renteria is a better No. 2 hitter than Giles, but who on this roster is even close to the No. 2 hitter that Renteria is?)

By Efrim D

January 1, 2007 06:34 PM | Link to this

Yea Im not a fan of Perry. But understand that our point of views are a little different man. You are a Braves fan. Im a Braves fan. I just can’t wait for all of the predictions for 2007 to come out. I have to guess that people such as Peter Gammons and Buster Olney are going to pick the Mets or Phillies to win the division. They are sure not casual observers.

By Larry

January 1, 2007 06:36 PM | Link to this

As a father of two (8 & 5 yrs) prescious daughters, I can only hope the guy in the truck was introduced to a tree a few seconds afterward.

Sad. Very, very sad!

By reality

January 1, 2007 06:42 PM | Link to this

Teams that lead the league in stolen bases win 90 games 32% of the time. Teams that finish last in stolen bases win 90 games 25% of the time. Stolen bases have almost no impact on wins and losses. The ‘95 team was the slowest we’ve had over the last 16 years.

By Ron Roberts

January 1, 2007 06:44 PM | Link to this

Why is Hudson likely to pitch better?

We’d LIKE for Hudson to pitch better, but we can wish in one hand and crap in the other, and see which one fills up first, folks.

Chuck (I’m Rick) James (b!tch!) should be a valuable starter, but the Braves thought that of Craig McMurtry once, too, after a stellar rookie season.

Macay McBride and Tyler Yates should get better with their experience, but (see Chuck James above).

Listen, I think the team’s vastly improved over last season, just with Wickman in the ‘pen; but I’m a realist, too. Expecting too much from question marks like Hampton, Hudson, James ( aka 60% of the starting rotation ) is risky. Will they come through for Atlanta? They should, but that’s no lock; so I understand why nobody latches onto Atlanta as a preseason NL East pick.

By Efrim D

January 1, 2007 06:49 PM | Link to this

DOB, don’t you think the Braves could go with a lineup of

SS Renteria C McCann 3B C Jones CF A Jones 1B Laroche RF Francouer LF Langerhans/Diaz/Thorman 2B Prado/K Johnson/Aybar

I just feel like Laroche’s potential can be realized if he hits higher in the batting order. McCann would do well in the 2 hole. He can handle the bat pretty well. Although this would make the team have less balance, it would make the Braves have a great 1-6. I just dont see Prado/Johnson/Aybar taking the lead off spot and running with it. What do you think?

By Efrim D

January 1, 2007 06:58 PM | Link to this

I agree 100 Percent with Ron Roberts. Atlanta should be better, but can you really fault analysts and fans for being doubters of this team. How in the world can you think Hudson is going to be better. Of course what is better??? KC, what do you think Tim Hudson’s stats will be next year. In my mind, I want 17-8 3.30 era 220 innings pitched 195 hits given up 160 strike outs 60 walks. KC, will Tim Hudson put this line up next year? I also want to ask you what you think Chuck James line will be.

By AdirondackDave

January 1, 2007 07:02 PM | Link to this

Dave — Those are all excellent points you make about Edgar’s work as a #2 hitter. There is something that still puzzles me though. If I remember correctly, Bobby has either said or implied that getting a good lead-off hitter really isn’t all that important to this club. After all, we scored plenty of runs last year.

At the same time, even though JS has stated that pitching improvement is the priorty, the Pittsburgh talks apparently were/are hung-up over Duffy, the prospective lead-off guy, who clearly is secondary considering what Gonzo brings to the table.

Another thought, in the event circumstances did lead Bobby to move Renteria into the lead-off spot, how about moving Chipper up to #2 with McCann #3? Chipper’s OBP numbers are great and, over the course of the season, it would give him perhaps a few dozen more ABs. Couldn’t McCann succeed at #3 with Andruw #4, LaRoche #5, Frenchy #6 and so on? Works for me… Just as an aside, I remember Walker batting #2 sometimes in that fine Cards line-up a few years ago. As I say, just a thought.

By kinley

January 1, 2007 07:12 PM | Link to this

Ron, it’s not just a stellar rookie season that has the Braves confident about Chuck James. He’s dominated in the minors everywhere he’s played. Look at his ERA numbers over three levels of the minors in ‘05

By The Grinch

January 1, 2007 07:16 PM | Link to this

KC, you’ve mentioned Hampton and Hudson should pitch better, but you didn’t list any statistics or reasons as to why. Could you perhaps explain something to us about how long it takes to fully recover from Tommy John surgury, or perhaps a comparison of Hudson’s numbers percentage wise vs. the rest of the league that might shut those of us up who think he’s mediocre based on what we’ve watched? And how do you feel about the state of the bullpen? :-)

Lew, tofu must be edible; I’ve seen it at the grocery store. Of course, I’ve also seen Brillo pads, tampons, rat poison and Miracle Whip at the grocery too, so I suppose that’s a bad example.

By Ron

January 1, 2007 07:38 PM | Link to this

KC, Efrim D, Did yall read Dayn Perrys article from May of 2005, It was very very interresting. He talked about when he was in college how he hated the Braves and Loved the Cardinals, and remembered back in 96, how the Braves came back to win the pennant. If you have not read it, the article takes a total 180 degree turn. A dude from this morning about 1 something has a Link to it, find it and read about it.

By ncscoots

January 1, 2007 07:38 PM | Link to this

Maybe I’ve given the wrong impression of my opinion about speed. It’s not as if I prefer slow players to quick ones, heck no. But Lew has the ticket…team speed is not the same thing as a base-stealing threat. I don’t see the speedy-base-stealing-leadoff crowd making any differentiation. My point all along has been that the offensive effectiveness of a base-stealing threat hitting leadoff is overvalued by some on the blog. Consider:

1. Leadoff guy reaches, steals a base to reach scoring position, but no runs score in the inning. The SB is offensively meaningless.
2. Leadoff guy reaches, steals a base to reach scoring position, and scores the only run of the inning. Speed created the run.
3. Leadoff guy reaches, steals a base, and MORE than one run scores in the inning. The SB is offensively meaningless, the player would have scored without it.
4. Leadoff guy reaches, is caught stealing, and at least one run scores in the inning. Speed COST a run.

A SB success rate of less than 75% will COST as many runs as it creates. Base-stealing looks great, it’s exciting, and I love to see it myself as a fan. But to risk losing a baserunner (and an out) on THIS offensive squad, especially before the fifth inning, would be risk without comparable reward, IMO.

Oh, and the thing about speed distracts the pitcher? Probably true, but it doesn’t acutally translate into offensive production. Otherwise, Paul LoDuca’s OBP would always be higher when Reyes was on 1B than in most other offensive situations. Don’t think that’s the case.

See, It’s not that I think a fast leadoff hitter is a BAD thing, just not quite the GREAT, ESSENTIAL, WE’RE-DOOMED-WITHOUT-ONE thing that others do. The success of this team will not hinge on the player hitting after the national anthem, folks.

By Greg in TN

January 1, 2007 07:38 PM | Link to this

Happy New Year folks…

Hey DOB, thanks for the update. Hope to see Reitsma bounce back in his new locale, wherever that may be. I don’t doubt for one minute that he’s a great guy and the folks in Cincy loved him. It just didn’t work out here. It happens. I am with you, I do hope that folks here just let it go if he moves to another NL team or an AL team that visits the Ted next season. Say what you want about the guy, but he did not deserve what the chump in the pickup did to him in front of his daughter. In the stadium, I think they’re fair game, however outside of the ballpark, people tend to forget these guys have lives too.

The Schoeneweis idea is very intriguing to me. I’m all for signing him or Villone or someone similarly hard on lefties and keep LaRoche in red shirts on Sundays in Georgia.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 07:42 PM | Link to this

Let me say this about closers. While I like a guy who can throw 95-98mph heat I will just easily take a guy who can throw strikes and get outs with groundballs. Yes, guys like Wagner and Rivera are great but Trevor Hoffman has been doing it for over ten years and he isn’t a 95-98mph heat guy. And the thing about a guy like Wickman he is much less prone to “wild streaks” like a fireballer is.

By mr baseball

January 1, 2007 07:42 PM | Link to this

While we’re on the topic of batting orders, a few thoughts. The Braves do not need a leadoff hitter. They didn’t have a real one when they won the WS in ‘95, and Renteria is likely better suited to that role now than Grissom (low OBP numbers) was then.

Unless you have a Pierre/Reyes/Podsednik type hitting first, there is no “role” for a No. 2 hitter. That role was essentially invented by Jim Gilliam hitting behind Maury Wills. Since then, baseball people have come to the conclusion that a No. 2 hitter HAS to fit that role. But if the leadoff hitter doesn’t steal a lot of bases, the No. 2 hitter doesn’t need to take pitches, hit behind the runner, bunt, etc.

Considering the four guys hitting behind him (assuming LaRoche isn’t traded), Chipper would make a nice No. 2 hitter on this team, followed by LaRoche, Andruw, McCann and Francoeur. McCann is simply too slow to hit higher in the lineup. The problem is, Cox is much too conventional in his thinking, and is unlikely to consider that lineup, even if Chipper agrees to hit 2nd. That would result in Johnson/Prado/Aybar, whoever hits leadoff, getting 140 or so more plate appearances than LaRoche, which is nuts.

The GM’s history of trading for speed/ a leadoff hitter (the Lofton, Tucker, Sanders/Veras deals) has been disastrous. So was his decision to go without a legitimate hitter at 1B for several years before LaRoche arrived. He seems intent on repeating one or both mistakes.

With Andruw heading out of town after this season, the Braves DO NOT need to be trading a young, relatively inexpensive power hitter for a reliever, even one as good as Gonzalez. With the exception of a lefty reliever and a veteran bat off the bench, the Braves are OK as they are, even with the ? at 2nd base. Come sprng training, the Brewers will be looking to deal Graffanino and the Cubs will be looking to unload one of their LH relievers, so those holes can be filled later. For the other, Eduardo Perez would fit the bill, providing he comes cheap, which appears to be the overriding factor for potential Braves free agents.

Lots of Braves fans complain that Cox doesn’t bunt enough. The problem is he bunts too much with guys who can hit, and it probably cost the Braves the ‘05 playoff series against the Astros. With 2 on & no outs in the 15th against a tired Wheeler, Cox had Francoeur bunt, which resulted in the inevitable intentional walk to Langerhans. Cox took the bat out of the hands of two of the Braves hottest hitters at the time and gave up an out in the process, leaving things up to McCann, who had already caught 14 innings, and Orr. We all remember what happened.

Cox is almost always going to go by baseball’s hallowed book, which is why anything the slightest bit unconventional (Chipper hitting 2nd) is unlikely to occur. Too bad.

By Wayne in Utah

January 1, 2007 07:43 PM | Link to this

Adirondack It’s not so much about Duffy as it is about getting value for value. Dave makes great points on the Rent-a-SS batting leadoff points. I suspect we need to hope one of our 2B/LF people are suitable for that spot. You don’t really have another choice (the Jones boys, Frenchie, McCann and LaRoche are definitely not leadoff men, and too valuable as run producers.)

By the way, what percentage of innings does a lead off hitter actually lead off? My guess would be around 25% or so??? So, in my mind, that says that Johnson or Aybar or anybody with a half decent OBP would work, and wouldn’t need to be a SB threat. Can you say: LaRoche and Langerhans for Duffy and Gonzalez?

By kinley

January 1, 2007 07:46 PM | Link to this

I would eat any of those things mentioned above before I’d eat tofu.

By Ron

January 1, 2007 07:48 PM | Link to this

Grinch, dude I think that with Hudson’s offseason workout he will be much improved(pure speculation though, and of cource I could be wrong), and Hampton has had like 18 months to recover, should be good to go(but again pure speculation).

By Ron

January 1, 2007 08:02 PM | Link to this

Mr Baseball, great point about LaRoche, the Braves have not had a TRUE 1B since Gallarraga, and LaRoche finnally came through last year. No way we can trade LaRoche, especially when Andruw leaves next season, and he will leave. Great point about Grissom, Some people on this Blog are obsessed with speedy leadoff men, Furcal never helped them in the Playoffs! And you were talkin about those bad trades for a leadoff guy, EXACTLY, They lost Dye for Tucker and Lockhart, was not worth that(Dyes career would be alot better if he did not break his leg in a playoff game while playing with the A’s, finally healthy again). The Braves trading LaRoche for Figgins and whoever else, that is not a Pitcher, whatever people. Yall are crazy if yall like that trade.

By Jared

January 1, 2007 08:04 PM | Link to this

Is Chris Duffy really the hold-up? He’s not really that good and everyone knows it’s Mike Gonzalez the Braves really want. If these talks exist, why not just pull the trigger before the Red Sox, Yankees or Indians swoop in and get Gonzalez? Duffy ain’t worth that risk. I’d rather Diaz play left anyways.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 08:12 PM | Link to this

Ron, I’m sure Mr. Perry likes the Braves but his love for the Mets is more than obvious. How am I supposed to take someone seriously who suggests that Minaya is a genius because he resigned Jose Valentin to play 2nd and because he signed Moises Alou who has spent more time on the DL in the last three years than the ever critcized Chipper Jones has? The Glavine signing was nice but that only happened because the Braves never made an offer. Glavine made it quite clear that his preference was to come back to Atlanta. Now, I think Minaya is a good GM and has finally brought some sense to that position. Truthfully, Steve Phillips wasn’t that bad. However, it isn’t necessarily a stroke of genius to simply throw the most money at Beltran, Pedro, and more or less Delgado. The Mets made that trade because they could afford his contract. Like Cashman in New York and even Epstein in Boston, yes they are good GMs but would they be as good if they had to operate like Billy Beane or Terry Ryan or how JS is having to operate now?

Perry is basically saying that despite all the Mets problems and holes the other teams in the NL East are so bad that the Mets will still have no problems winning. At the moment this divison is too close to call and I won’t be surprised if the Mets finish 4th. We’ll see how good and how smart of a GM Minaya is now. He needs a starter in the worst way. Will he swing a shrewd deal or will he give away the farm? By the way, any deal with the A’s will involve him giving away the farm.

By The Grinch

January 1, 2007 08:15 PM | Link to this

Kinley, I would too except for the Miracle Whip.

Ron, my comment towards KC was meant to be sarcastic. I think he’s treated us to the same 5 paragraph essay on Hampton, Hudson, and the reason the bullpen will be better just about every day now since mid-october.

KC, you know I love ya though, man, and I agree with just about everything you say except for the assertion that Hudson’s been great the last couple of years. There’s optimism, and then there’s “My Hudson, right or wrong.” But, I’m sure you and his mom know better than the rest of us. :-)

By journalist jimmy smtih

January 1, 2007 08:17 PM | Link to this

let’s say you have a player who uses the toe-tap when at the plate and the player bats third in the lineup. someone on a blog suggests moving this toe-tapping player to bat second without regard to how many times he will be tapping the toes or how many toes he will be tapping. and he must now do this earlier in the game - and perhaps more times in every game! see, this makes no sense. why move a toe-tapper with bad toes? thanks for allowing this observation.

By AdirondackDave

January 1, 2007 08:26 PM | Link to this

Wayne in Utah — I don’t have a problem with trading LaRoche and Langerhans for Gonzo and Duffy. I think it would improve us for ‘07. I would be concerned about ‘08 and then losing Andruw and their combined production and defense. Of Course, Andruw’s money could be spent hopefully on power, but would it? JS might spend it on a possibly seriously aging Smoltz. We all like AJ, but he may be one of those rare players who you don’t fully appreciate until he’s doing it for somebody else! I think somehow JS has to do this magic: find a way to keep AJ and Smoltz to retirement… even if it means unloading an improving (hopefully) Hudson or Hampton.

Not to minimize the great contributions of Chipper or Smoltz but Andruw is the closest thing to Hank we are likely to see in our lifetime, and in someways (notably defense) even better. For my 3-generation family of Braves fans, right down to my grandson, Andruw has almost BECOME the Braves. Smoltz and Chipper seem very likely to retire as Braves. AJ will require some serious effort and creative work by JS. We hope this is his goal.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 08:27 PM | Link to this

Jared, the Red Sox or Yankees won’t swoop in and snatch Gonzales up because neither one of them match up well with the Pirates and that is why they were trying to work a three way with the Braves. I would do a trade with the Red Sox but only if we got Youklis, which somehow I doubt the Red Sox would give him up. Actually, if the Red Sox would give up Breslow or Hansen it would have to be worth considering. Unless a miracle from heaven comes down and a Baldelli or Rios trade can be made, I think JS is content on going into spring training with the current roster. I don’t necessarily agree with that strategy but won’t really knock it either. It may be worth waiting until spring training when teams have a better sense of their teams to make deals anyway. The Angels are a good example. If Kotchman or Morales don’t get it done at 1st, the Angels may be more willing to give away one of their pitchers because they need LaRoche’s bat. Where the Pirates are concerned JS is already in the driver’s seat.

Now, DOB and everyone else, I read Saturday that the acquistion of Huff may cause the O’s to think about trading Corey Patterson. Would Patterson be a good addition to this team? Could the Braves somehow pry him and Penn from the O’s for LaRoche and a prospect? Huff will likely play DH or play LF so their problem at 1st base hasn’t really been solved. Just wondering.

By Ron

January 1, 2007 08:35 PM | Link to this

Robert, you said Omar is a good GM. He is a Slug dude, I think he is worst than Littlefield, hard to believe that. If a trade happens period, he will have to trade away the farm, especially knowing Omar SLUG Minaya, gave away the farm for Colon when he was the Expos GM and trading him a year later getting absolutely NOTHING!!!!!!!!!!!! He never won or even came close to winning when he was with the Expos with a similar budget as the A’s, and Twins, and both those teams have a winning tradition with those GM’s. Omar is a damn BUM!!!!

By KC

January 1, 2007 08:37 PM | Link to this

WayneInUtah:

I think you are correct. I seriously doubt if the Orioles motivation to deal for LaRoche is what it would have been had they not signed Huff.

I would be be in favor of a LaRoche for Gonzo/Duffy trade, but it doesn’t look like that’s going to happen. Pittsburgh isn’t willing to part with both.

By Efrim D

January 1, 2007 08:43 PM | Link to this

I wouldn’t give up Laroche to the Orioles unless Ray was included. Ray and Penn would be the package I would ask for. Then send Ray or James to the D Rays for Baldelli.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 09:00 PM | Link to this

Here’s my objective view of the Braves upcoming season.

This team is a good team that has the potential to be a great team. If they stand pat with the roster, several questions will abound no doubt about it. Second base will be the biggest question with Kelly Johnson and Martin Prado fighting it out. Johnson is a better offensive choice, but Prado is the better defensive candidate. If Johnson, who is working with Glen Hubbard, can show he can play adequate defense the job will be his to lose.

Despite what some believe the leadoff position is a concern. Unless a leadoff hitter is obtained, which seems more and more doubtful with every passing day, the winner of the 2B job will get the nod.

The Braves also have an issue in left field. Incumbents Scott Thorman, Matt Diaz, and Ryan Langerhans will fight it out, but rookies Gregor Blanco and TJ Bohn could provide Bobby Cox with some very interesting and tough decisions. Truthfully, the competition could be a plus for the Braves. If all five play extremely well in the spring then they could be trade pieces to fill other holes. In Blanco’s case a good spring could land him the leadoff job.

The Braves starting rotation is full of questions. Will Tim Hudson bounce back and be the Tim Hudson of the Oakland A’s? Can Smoltz continue to defy age and produce Cy Young type performances like he did on most nights last season? Is Mike Hampton, who missed all of the 2006 season with Tommy John surgery, truly healthy and will he revert back to the Mike Hampton who was more than dominant before the injury? Was rookie Chuck James’ 2006 performance a fluke or the real deal? Will Kyle Davies pitch like the Davies of 2005 and was his poor performance in September due to not being completely healed from his injury? If any of these guys falter can Lance Cormier pitch like he did down the stretch of 2006? Will Matt Harrison and Anthony Lerew put it together in be with the Braves sooner than later?

The biggest question mark going into 2006 may actually be the only solid facet of the team in 2007. The bullpen. With the additions of closer Bob Wickman and premiere setup guy, Rafeal Soriano, the Braves bullpen is decidedly better. Youngsters Macay McBride, Tyler Yates, and Chad Parronto should be better and battle tested after a rough year last year. Actually, Yates and Parronto got better as the season went along and went from being “last ditch efforts to restore the bullpen” to pitchers that actaully solidifed roles on the roster. Oscar Villereal will also be back. Villereal did an excellent job spot starting and in long relief and showed fewer and fewer after affects of a surgery that kept him out almost all of 2005. The Braves are also attempting to acquire Pirate closer, Mike Gonzales, whom would make the Braves’ bullpen the best in the NL if he is acquired.

The Braves offense should be fine. They scored the second most runs and had the second highest average in the National League and all of this despite bouts with run droughts and Chipper Jones missing a third of the season. The offense not only features Jones but centerfielder Andruw Jones who figures to put up huge numbers considering this is his free agent walk year. Brian McCann, who might be very well the best catcher in the National League, is coming off a season where he almost won the batting title and did win a Silver Slugger award. The kid has a great approach at the plate and while it is unrealistic to expect him to hit over .330 again, he is more than capable of hitting over .300 and has some very subtle power. Adam LaRoche put himself on the map last season with a great breakout season and only figures to get better. Phenom Jeff Francoeur struggled most of the season in 2006, but showed a flair for the dramatic by continuously coming up with big hits to tie and win games. He did drive in over 100 RBI from the sixth hole in the lineup. His biggest flaw was his low OBP, which was directly due to his inability to take walks. However, the last month of the season Francoeur showed a lot more patience and was able to raise his average to .260 and his on-base percentage to .293 when for awhile it was questioned if he could even get it over .280. The kid has a lot of talent and is poised to have a breakout season.

The fact is the team has a lot of “what-ifs”. However, it cannot be expected to have things go wrong in 2007 like they did in 2006. The Braves missed more games due to injury by the end of June in 2006 than they had each in 2004 and 2005 for the entire seasons. The addition of Wily Aybar will allow more rest time for Chipper Jones, which will likely keep him off of the DL. If things go okay for the Braves they will finish third. If things go as right in 2007 as they did wrong in 2006, this team will win the NL East and contend for the World Series.

By KC

January 1, 2007 09:02 PM | Link to this

Efrim: I really don’t know what to predict for Hudson, except to say that I think he’ll be significantly than last year. I guess I expect to see his ERA drop by at least a full run. I think Tim Hudson will at least revert to his ’04/’05 form, when he finished with a very good 3.50 ERA both seasons. In fairness to Huddy, he was playing hurt most of both seasons, which makes his ERA’s those years somewhat impressive in my book.

In an era where guys with ERA’s in the high 3.00’s (Zito, Glavine, D.Willis, etc.) are called “aces”… a 3.50 ERA would be just fine. If Huddy really rounds back into form, then I believe the numbers you mentioned earlier are not hard to imagine. Anything’s possible from Huddy, but the only thing I’m comfortable predicting for Hudson is an ERA well under 4.00, and something close to 15 wins.

As for Chuck James… how bout’ 15-7 with a 3.78 ERA.

A couple weeks ago, I posted some predictions for the Braves and Mets rotations (though back then, I hypothetically placed Zito in their rotation). I was criticized by some for projecting too many 15 game winners, but honestly… I think any half way decent starter pitching for either the Mets or Braves will have an excellent chance at a 15 win season, because both teams are likely to have excellent bullpens and excellent offenses. And that’s all you need (run support and bullpen support) to win a lot of ballgames if you’re worth anything as a starter. I think the Braves will have at least three 15 game winners this season, and the Mets will have at least two.

By TLJ

January 1, 2007 09:03 PM | Link to this

Guys, we should not trade LaRoche unless we receive equal compensation.
Mike Gonzalez even up is not equal compensation. If Pittsburg wants to throw in Gorzelanny and a prospect or Duffy then JS should make the deal. Otherwise let them sign Trot Nixon and finish last in their in division. We should treat trading LaRoche like TB is treating the trade of Baldelli. Knock our socks off or don’t call us back.

I would make the trade with Baltimore (Penn and Ray) but I don’t think they are interested. The same with TB, they will not trade Baldelli without James being involved. There is no way we can trade him.

The Braves will be okay with the team we currently have.

By Ron

January 1, 2007 09:06 PM | Link to this

Efrim D, You would like the Braves to trade James for Baldelli. No way, maybe Ray, maybe, but no damn way that I involve James, no way!!!

By Jared

January 1, 2007 09:09 PM | Link to this

“Then send Ray or James to the D Rays for Baldelli.”

I would guess only about 2% of Braves would trade James for Baldelli. But that small minority bothers me in that they can actually suggest trading a good, cheap young lefty, in this market, for an outfielder the Braves really don’t need. It makes me really glad that a sane man like Schuerholz is general manager as I know he wouldn’t trade for Baldelli if it meant losing James (don’t know about Davies.)

I wouldn’t trade Chris Ray if we got him either, but that trade is dead on arrival now that the Orioles have Huff.

By KC

January 1, 2007 09:10 PM | Link to this

Efrim: I know you’re not all that high on Chuck James, but the Braves are. And so are many other GM’s in baseball covet him. I think the general consensus in the baseball world is that Chuck James is the real deal and figures to be a quality starter for a long time.

Particularly with the Braves winter mission of strengthening the pitching staff… there’s no way James would be sent to the D-Rays for Baldelli. I’m not even sure that they would give him up for Carl Crawford.

And if the Braves acquire someone like Ray or Gonzalez for LaRoche, it will be with the intention of keeping that guy and strengthening the pitching staff.

The Braves might trade offense to get pitching, but the opposite is not likely to happen.

By MBATL

January 1, 2007 09:14 PM | Link to this

Robert, please, no Corey Patterson! He can steal bases, but he’s a strikeout machine and can’t get on base. Over the past 3 years, 380 K’s against just 89 walks, and a .299 OBP. We don’t need a base-stealer that bad.

By David O'Brien

January 1, 2007 09:19 PM | Link to this

Efrim, I don’t want someone as slow as McCann batting second in the order. No way. And I don’t want him worrying so frequently about hitting behind the runner, advancing guys, etc, I want him doing exactly what he did last year _ hitting line drives all over the place and driving in guys.

Dude hit better than anybody in baseball last season with RISP and two outs by a huge margin, McCann batting .471 to next-best in that category Albert Pujols’ .435 (I’m still amazed by that stat).

So why would you want to bat him second, where he’d have far fewer such opportunities, while also clogging up the bases?

By TheSouthernJackAss

January 1, 2007 09:24 PM | Link to this

and you tell me to get a life???…

By David O'Brien

January 1, 2007 09:24 PM | Link to this

Adirondack Dave, of the things I can say with reasonable assurance about the upcoming season, one is that Chipper Jones will not be batting second. Ever.

Larry Walker hit second at the end of his career in a Cardinals lineup that was arguably the most loaded lineup in the league in recent memory, in the rare times when they were all healthy.

By KC

January 1, 2007 09:30 PM | Link to this

Ron Roberts: My reasoning for believing Hudson will bounce back has nothing to do with what I want to believe. There are several factors that lead me to believe that he’ll be much better in 07’. I mentioned these things many times, but as per GRINCHY’s special request =) I’ll touch on those reasons one more time.

First of all, I’ve said it a million times, but it bears repeating… 2006 was the first and only poor season of Hudson’s career. In 04’ and 05’ he was playing hurt, and still finished top-15% in MLB in ERA. If a player sucks for 7 years, and then has one good year, we wouldn’t start referring to that pitcher as an ace. We would be reluctant to put too much stock in one season. Yet when you flip that scenario upside down, that’s exactly what many are doing in Hudson’s case… putting an awful lot of stock in one poor season, and pronouncing him a washed up ace, now no better than 3rd or 4th starter.

Hudson’s 2006 season was an enigma. No satisfactory reason for his struggles. He was healthy and his velocity/stuff was still there… he was simply “out of sync”. He had mechanical issues with probably turned into mental issues after a while. Anyway, I was curious if there was any precedent for this sort of thing (an ace in his prime struggling one season for no apparent reason), so a few months ago, I hit MLB.com and started looking at career stats of various pitchers. I looked at pretty much every pitcher who had consistently finished top-10 in ERA at any point in the last 25 years. What I found was very encouraging.

I saw a number of instances of seasons similar to Hudson’s 06’ season in the careers of people like Clemens, Smoltz, Mussina (back in his more dominant Baltimore days), Kevin Brown, and a few others. Numerous aces in recent baseball history had a year in their prime where they were healthy, but struggled for no apparent reason. In every single similar case I could find, that pitcher bounced right back the following season. After seeing those numbers, I feel confident in saying that history is on Hudson’s side.

Aside from that, I simply look at the fact that he’s healthy, still young, and very determined after embarrassing himself in 06’. I can’t predict the future, and I’m not expecting a Cy Young season from Hudson. But for these reasons, I believe it’s more likely than not that Hudson will perform much better next season.

By David O'Brien

January 1, 2007 09:33 PM | Link to this

Did someone really suggest Penn and COREY PATTERSON for LaRoche and a prospect? Seriously?…

Mr. Baseball, I like a lot of your suggestions and agree with you on most of your overall outlook. But again, I would be shocked to see Chipper Jones bat second.

By the way, he doesn’t even like batting fourth. I’m guessing second is not high on the desirable options list for Hoss. He loves hitting third.

By Efrim D

January 1, 2007 09:39 PM | Link to this

DOB, Laroche should hit higher in the order. That is my point. If you want to do this batting order:

SS Renteria 3B C Jones C McCann CF A Jones 1B Laroche RF Francouer LF Langerhans/Diaz/Thorman 2B Prado/K Johnson

This would be a great order as well.

KC, I like Chuck James. I just remember Horacio Ramirez’s first year. I believe it was 12-4 with a 4.00 era. Then things changed. I know you will probably say injuries changed that, but my point is that you have to wait a little while for these young pitchers. A lot of these guys have sophmore slumps and never rebound.

By Jared

January 1, 2007 09:43 PM | Link to this

“I know you’re not all that high on Chuck James, but the Braves are. And so are many other GM’s in baseball covet him. I think the general consensus in the baseball world is that Chuck James is the real deal and figures to be a quality starter for a long time. Particularly with the Braves winter mission of strengthening the pitching staff… there’s no way James would be sent to the D-Rays for Baldelli. I’m not even sure that they would give him up for Carl Crawford. And if the Braves acquire someone like Ray or Gonzalez for LaRoche, it will be with the intention of keeping that guy and strengthening the pitching staff. The Braves might trade offense to get pitching, but the opposite is not likely to happen.”

Now that is exactly 100% how I feel. Well said.

By NS in Kennesaw

January 1, 2007 09:45 PM | Link to this

Hello all and Happy New Year,

First of all, I wish Riestma best of lucks where ever he may be - although last season was a less than a memorable one, he is over all a good baseball pitcher and a good dude.

Great to hear that KJ is being worked on for 2B - I think he could turn out to be a good one there. Also agree with many others that why not go with a platoon 2B and LF.

Now the pitching staff - the major let down of last season. One point I noticed right from spring training was that a couple of pitchers did not look like they were in good playing shape. Wella, we all saw how Ramirez did. Tim Hudson as well. Anyway, I hope the coaches would mandate our players (especially the pitchers) to make sure that they show up in good shape for this spring training.

For this season, I’ll go to watch the home game as many times as I can. I think this would be the last season of A. Jones in Braves uniform. Hate to see him leave but also understand that this is a business and the Braves can not compete with the markets to keep him.

Go Braves

By MBATL

January 1, 2007 09:48 PM | Link to this

Is Rios still ‘on the market’ with the BJ’s? I remember reading that they might move him but wanted a frontline starter… and that they’ve got lots of cash to spend.

A little different direction, but would we consider a Hudson or Hampton for Rios? I would!

By Wayne in Utah

January 1, 2007 10:16 PM | Link to this

Dave: I too have noticed that Chipper doesn’t like ANYTHING but 3rd. Also, do you have any idea what percentage of innings a leadoff hitter ACTUALLY leads off an inning? I would guess 25-30% of the time. So, I can’t see that guys like KJ, Prado, Aybar, Langerhans (SO a bit too much for me) or Diaz would be OK in the 1 spot. Can’t see Thorman there (Klesko’s clone leading off!!!).

My only worry about our team next year is still in the pitching category. There are ALWAYS injuries that crop up. Also, I don’t expect the kind of year (I would love to see it, but don’t expect it) from Wickman that we got last August and September. He will prove to be somewhat fallable on occasion, I believe. For that reason, I like the idea of Gonzalez.

Now, what about this tact for the Bravos. We will NOT trade LaRoche as we have been speculating, and instead, offer Thorman and another decent prospect or two to the Pirates for Gonzalez. I suspect they would not do it, and if not, then screw them! (my luck, having stated we should hold LaRoche, JS will trade him tomorrow morning to spite me!!)

So, if we can’t keep AJ, then at least we will have LaRoche/Frenchy/McCann all one year older and hopefully more refined as hitters, to replace him. I would not be too afraid of going with Langerhans or Frenchy in CF if we can’t get AJ to stay. Also, my biggest fear is that we don’t really have a decent crop of OF prospects that are within a year of being ready. Maybe Brandon Jones is going to be a candidate, but he needs to step it up a notch to be consider starter material. So, I guess that we might have to move some of those decent infield prospects to the OF (ala KJ) if nobody steps forward. We can’t wait for Cory Johnson.

I am rambling, please forgive me folks.

By Wayne in Utah

January 1, 2007 10:26 PM | Link to this

Efrim

A couple of points. Number one, Chipper IS going to be in the lineup for 125-140 games. Of course, anybody can get injured, but some of his injured games missed last year was a fluke, which could happen to anybody in the lineup. Secondly, you don’t want to hit McCann anywhere higher than 5th, as he will be out once every 5 games or so. Too hard to work around a secondary 3rd or 4th hitter (another reason why Chipper being healthy is important). So, here is my proposal:

LF or 2B,

Rent-a-SS

Chipper

AJ

McCann

Frenchy

LaRoche

LF or 2B

Now, I know you want Adam higher in the order, but given the circumstance of McCann and Chipper, you are forced to push him to 6th or 7th. Also, when McCann is sitting, bat Adam 5th. If he proves to not kill so many rallies with his strikeouts (I am still not sold on his clutch hitting), then switch those two. I think you gotta keep it righty/lefty and keep Frenchy in the 6th hole, unless 2 guys are out of the lineup. I like keeping the 3-4 pressure off these young guys until they HAVE to do it out of necessity.

Whaddyya think?? (Will Omar pull the trigger and get one of the A’s hurlers?) I think it would be wise to unload Millings, as he strikes me as a dim wit. Better to get something for him if you can.

By Jared

January 1, 2007 10:32 PM | Link to this

One final thought before I go to sleep.

“Now I ask you, if you’re the Braves, don’t you find a way to offer Schoeneweis $3 mill RIGHT NOW so you can keep LaRoche, who will have even more trade value a year from now if he hits 35 or more homers and drives in 110 or so runs?”

David O’Brien, do the Braves really have three million to spend? If so, why not bring John Thomson back for bullpen help and to be a back-up starter should an injury occur or someone like Davies not pitch to expectations? I don’t have the stats but I think Thomson has pitched good out of the bullpen from the 2005 NLDS on.

I don’t really think another left-hander is needed, though I think it would help. The Padres proved in 2006 you can have no left-handed pitcher most of the time and still have a lights-out bullpen.

By Efrim D

January 1, 2007 10:45 PM | Link to this

The more I look at it, the more I see that the Braves are not going to make a move. They will probably go into the year with this team. I ask everyone this, Who has the best Starting rotation in the National League????

I personally think it is the Padres.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 10:56 PM | Link to this

DOB, don’t rip me. I was merely bringing up the suggestion of Patterson.

I do wonder if the Pirates would take Thorman and Prado for Gonzales. In a perfect world LaRoche would stay. The only problem is that LaRoche is the most attractive tradeable player the Braves have.

I think the point some are missing about LaRoche being traded is that conceivably he can be replaced by Thorman whereras a Hudson could only be traded if another starter came back in return.

MBATL, acquiring Rios from the Jays would be great but I’m not so sure giving up Hudson would be ideal simply because the Jays aren’t going to give up a quality starter in return. Now, if the Braves traded him to Houston for Chris Sampson and a guy like Adam Everett or Chris Burke would be great. I still say dealing him to the Cubs for Rich Hill would be great but the Cubs have made it quite clear they aren’t trading Hill. Trading him to the O’s for Bedard or Loewen would be good but apparently Hudson and Mazzone don’t exactly get along. You know, also, if the Indians do not get Mulder, I wonder if they would consider trading Cliff Lee or Jake Westbrook for Hudson.

I just get this feeling that JS isn’t going to make any more trades and we are going to have to hope everything goes right.

Like I’ve said, I would probably go ahead and pull the trigger on a LaRoche for Gonzales and I suppose Duffy trade simply because Gonzales gives the Braves a lights out pen and insurance in case Wickman does falter. Personally I would rather see JS attempt to get Gorzelany and Gonzales. DOB has a point about the Pirates not giving up Maholm along with Gonzales. Now, while Gorzelany is a lefty as well, he does not have the same track record as Maholm. As much as that is.

By BlogLandSecurity

January 1, 2007 11:03 PM | Link to this

KC, were you Nathan in a previous life?

By Troy

January 1, 2007 11:12 PM | Link to this

Regarding the best rotation in the NL:

I like the Padres but I would have to give the edge to the Dodgers because they have a bit more depth.

rounding out my top 5 rotation:

1. Padres
2. Brewers
3. Cubs (Prior and Miller are the real wild cards and if they can produce the cubs might have the best of all in the NL)
4. Is a toss up Maybe HOU (if Clemens returns) or I think you might throw ATL, PHI, and even FLA in the mix

By MBATL

January 1, 2007 11:14 PM | Link to this

Robert, I wasn’t assuming we’d get a starter back from Toronto (I don’t know if such a deal makes any sense at all, or what additional pieces would have to be added). My thinking is this:

Both Hampton and Hudson MUST be considered question marks. I think each will be fine (no long defense of them needed!), but we don’t really know.

For 2008, we’d have the BEST outfield in the majors with Frenchy, AJ, and Rios. Rios can hit leadoff, so we just focus on defense at 2B, not try to force an unproven player into that role.

The $$ saved by a Hudson for Rios trade (or better yet, Hampton for Rios) could be used to rent a starter for a year (no, I don’t know who… maybe a Schoeneweis type).

The savings in ‘08 and ‘09 would be enough to allow us to sign AJ - I would NOT give him $20 mil or whatever, but we could reasonably offer $18 mil for him if we had one of those big pitching salaries off the books.

OR, we could still lose AJ but have big money left over to replace him and/or find a starter. Rios is a natural CF anyway, so we wouldn’t be desparate for a CF.

Plus, with a solid bat/leadoff man in LF, we could better afford to trade Laroche for pitching.

It WOULD be a shot to our rotation in ‘07, but would give us the flexibility to fill our needs.

Just a thought…

By Ron

January 1, 2007 11:15 PM | Link to this

Efrim D, in this Order Padres, Braves, Dodgers, Brewers, Phillies, Marlins(only behind these other teams because there so young), Giants, Reds, Pirates, Cardinals, Cubs, Rockies, Mets, and Nats. That is my oppinion!

By Ron

January 1, 2007 11:17 PM | Link to this

Think I skipped the DiamondBacks, and one more team, but you get the Idea, Oh yeah the Nats have the worst rotation!

By Ron

January 1, 2007 11:24 PM | Link to this

Robert, you feelin alright today, because you sound insane dude. Trade Hudson for Sampson, and Everett or Burke, dude are you still talkin about Tim Hudson. I hope not, you would make a pathedic GM if you were in charge. No way that EVER happens dude!!!!! Yeah we really need another shortstop that has a light stick in a great hitters park, and I would rather have Prado or Johnson at second than Burke, yes I know Burke hit that homerun, big deal. The Braves could get way more than that for Hudson right now!!!

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 11:37 PM | Link to this

Well, Ron, thanks for the insult. However, if we could so much for Hudson then why wasn’t he traded when JS was desperately trying to do so, so room could be made for Glavine. Sampson is a good young pitcher you could give the Braves some solid starts. A lot of people see Burke on the verge of a breakout. Not to mention that everyone wants to keep Andruw but not willing to sacrifice. The money freed up getting rid of Hudson would easily retain Andruw. I was just throwing something out there. Anyway……………………….

MBATL, I like the idea of getting Rios but who would take Hudson’s place? I’m not sure if I feel comfortable with Davies as a #4 starter. I suppose if Armas or Ohka could be signed to hold down the fort until Harrison is ready in July or if Cormier can impress enough in Richmond to be called up sooner.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 1, 2007 11:40 PM | Link to this

Ron, while you are asking me if I’m okay, are you seriously going to place the Braves rotation without seeing exactly what Hampton or Hudson will do ahead of the Dodgers and Brewers rotations? I think if Hudson and Hampton pitch like they are capable the Braves do have the second best rotation but that does reamin to be seen.

By kinley

January 1, 2007 11:41 PM | Link to this

The Ted a great hitter’s park? Since when? I mean, yeah, we have a lot of offensive firepower, but Turner Field is anything but a launching pad. The Braves’ offense would put up ridiculous numbers if they played half their games in Philly or Cincy. And I’m talking about historic numbers, not just in terms of being the best in the NL.

By Efrim D

January 1, 2007 11:52 PM | Link to this

1 Padres 2 Dodgers 3 Marlins

Those would be my top 3 rotations in the NL.

DOB, What would yours be?

KC, need I ask you who #1 is?

By JB

January 1, 2007 11:54 PM | Link to this

Efrim D, I think that the Padres, Dodgers, Brewers, and Braves have the best starting rotations in the NL right now.

Starter——-ERA

Peavy———-2.80 Young———-3.40 Maddux———4.20 Hensley——-4.00 Thompson——4.70

Schmidt——-3.40 Lowe————3.70 Penny———-4.10 Wolf————4.40 Billingsley-3.60

Sheets———2.90 Capuano——-3.80 Suppan———4.30 Bush————3.90 Vargas———4.50

Smoltz———3.40 Hudson———3.50 Hampton——-4.00 James———-3.80 Davies———4.50

By MBATL

January 2, 2007 12:02 AM | Link to this

I know they’re young, but 2nd half of last year, FL’s starters were lights out. I’d say San Diego followed by the Marlins.

JB, if the Braves top 4 stay healthy and post sub-.4’s, we’ll win 100 games.

By Ron

January 2, 2007 12:18 AM | Link to this

Kinsley, dude I was referring to Minute Maid Park in Houston, not Turner Field. Turner Field Is one of the toughest Hitters Parks out there. You do know that Everett plays in a great hitters park, that is what I was talkin about.Robert, did not mean to insult you but the why the Hell would the Braves try trading a 32 year old pitcher in Hudson to make room for a 41 year old Pitcher, in Glavine never going to happen, that is why they did not unload Hudson. And yes I believe Hampton and Hudson are going to win at least 15 games a piece if healthy, and I think they will be healthy.

By JB

January 2, 2007 12:20 AM | Link to this

Of course, I did not consider injuries. Therefore, my predictions may be a little too optimistic for some guys. Still, I believe that three Braves starters will post sub-4.00 ERA’s

By David O'Brien

January 2, 2007 12:20 AM | Link to this

Right now, I’d probably go with Padres, Dodgers, Braves and Marlins, not necessarily in that order. But if Clemens returns to Houston _ IF _ then I’d put them in top three or four rotations. And don’t overlook Arizona. If Randy Johnson goes back to D-backs, they’re in my top five. Lot of innings and/or strikeouts from their starters, Webb, Livan, Doug Davis (came from Milwaukee in the Estrada trade).

By David O'Brien

January 2, 2007 12:26 AM | Link to this

Anyone not watching this OU-Boise State game is missing one of the more remarkable finishes I’ve seen in college football in a few years. Wow. Stunning collapse for Boise.

By Bring Reeves Back!

January 2, 2007 12:28 AM | Link to this

Go Braves! man we need some owners again who actually give half a crap about the team! No excuse to give the mets there best posteason pitcher back to them!! Especially when hes a Braves hall of famer. sad times…sad times. I have hope still but after smoltz retires, and the jonses leave…then it will be the end forreal to the dynasty!

By Ron

January 2, 2007 12:29 AM | Link to this

Robert, Why do you think that the Brewers rotation is ahead of the Braves, when is the Last time Sheets has stayed healthy. Cannot believe people like the Brewers ahead of the Braves, the Brewers is good but if healthy the Braves would be amazing. And with there Bullpen and Great Offense, why not make the World Series, a possibillity!!!

By Ron

January 2, 2007 12:33 AM | Link to this

DOB, you think Dale Murphy will ever get into the Hall of Fame?

By David O'Brien

January 2, 2007 12:35 AM | Link to this

oh. my. god.

what a play. what a game. overtime

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 2, 2007 12:39 AM | Link to this

DOB, did you just see that play from Boise State! What a game! I’m from Oklahoma and love my Sooners but I am pulling for Boise State. I love the underdog and it would serve the BCS right to have “those other guys” pull off the upset. What a game?

Ron, I think the Braves have the chance to have best roation in the NL and bullpen for that matter. But, before I can put them there I have to see that Hudson regains his touch and Hampton can come back all the way. Also, Davies plays a huge role in this as well. I personally think his perfromance last year had more to do with his injury. But, we’ll see.

By Ron

January 2, 2007 12:41 AM | Link to this

This is the Braves Rotation Records for 2007. Smoltz 18-5 2.70, Hudson 18-6 3.15, Hampton 16-5 3.35, James 14-7 3.60, Davies 13-6 3.95. Pretty damn good, but of course it is my oppinion.

By Ron

January 2, 2007 12:49 AM | Link to this

I hear what you are saying Robert, all of this is our opinions, while we hope the Braves will win, we do not know how everthing will work out, it is a long baseball season, anything can happen. I thought before last season started, I thought that our Bullpen would be alright, but that is the way it goes. One big injury, such as Andruw getting hurt, the Braves could be done, You cant replace Andruw, maybe someone else, but no way you can replace Andruw.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 2, 2007 12:51 AM | Link to this

OMG, DOB, did you see that! What a damn gutsy call!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!Amazing!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

By Ron

January 2, 2007 12:52 AM | Link to this

Boise St. Just won!!!!!!!!

By Jeremy

January 2, 2007 01:00 AM | Link to this

Best bowl game ever? Might have to start up a new blog for that AMAZING Boisie St. victory! I’m also happy to announce I was 1 of 1 in the country to win $$$ on this game! haha What a game…

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 2, 2007 01:01 AM | Link to this

That is what college football should be about. Was that not one of the most exciting college football games ever played?!!!!!!!!

By Ron

January 2, 2007 01:28 AM | Link to this

Damn great Game. Gnight all, drunk off my a$$, goin to bed. Glad I dont have school tomorrow!

By Wayne in Utah

January 2, 2007 01:36 AM | Link to this

Just finished putting my 14 year to bed after we watched probably THE most exciting finishes to a football game I have EVER seen. Since we are from Northern Utah, and I cover the Boise area, I have a lot of VERY happy business friends tonight!

What a finish!

By DAP

January 2, 2007 01:56 AM | Link to this

ron roberts nice blog, you are absolutly right about KC and effrim being opposites. you were wrong about one thing though, effrim doesnt use stats. his opinion is based on….nothing i guess. thats why most of what he says doesnt matter. KC uses stats. ALOT of them…they really are polar opposites.

By Wayne in Utah

January 2, 2007 02:13 AM | Link to this

DAP You are right about effrim. There are moments when I think he is going to make a bit of sense with his comments, but most of the time he is way too far over the top in his opinion, which is for some reason based on the belief that there is too much negatives for the Braves. I want to take him at his word that he is a Braves fan, but in my opinion, I think a fan fights and argues for his team, against most odds. Granted, we are not about to say something stupid like “Pete Orr is bound to be the All Star and the MVP for 2007. Not going to happen, but we can be optomistic that our players will do better than others might think (Hampton and Hudson, case in point).

Oh well, I guess we can’t win them all over.

It’s late, even out here. Take care….

By The Grinch

January 2, 2007 02:14 AM | Link to this

Here’s to Boise State, in a bad-a* game from the get-go. G’night, everyone!

By Billy Austin

January 2, 2007 03:58 AM | Link to this

Not only are we going to have the luxury of starting the season with Wickman and Soriano at the back end of the game, we are going to have Chuck James in the rotation from the beginning. If he had pitched all year I think he wins 18 games for sure. I think JS didn’t pursue Glavine because he has a younger better version in James. I bet James has a better year than Glavine and that Smoltz is Smoltz and Hampton and Hudson return to prove they are a long way from done. The bullpen won’t blow half the games they did last year and the offense will be close to as productive. I think trading LaRoche while he is in high demand is a good idea. He is a great glove but a real streaky hitter. It seems he hits .220 or .320 because of his timing set up at the plate. I know when he’s hot he can carry the team for a spell but he can also be a perpetual rally killer when he’s cold. I think Thorman/Diaz platoon will give us close to the same production offensively with more consistency. I agree the need for a true leadoff/basestealer is overrated and that pitching wins championships. I’d rather have a scrapy smart ballplayer lead off that doesn’t give away at bats and the piece of mind to know if you hand the lead to a bullpen from the 6th inning on we are going to win most of those games. I like LaRoche but I think we should take advantage of the fact that several other teams do too. K Johnson at second leading of sounds like it’s worth trying. Rest Chipper and especially keep him off wet fields early in the year and either sign AJ to and extension like Toronto/Wells or trade him and get something substantial for him. I hope for the sake of the franchise that we can keep him. If he insistant upon going onto the open market and getting every dollar the market will bear than I think we should trade him and not make the Washington/Soriano mistake.

By berigan

January 2, 2007 04:37 AM | Link to this

Well, it sounds like Robert(JITB) and I are alone in thinking you need a speedy leadoff hitter.

Several mentioned that having Furcal batting leadoff didn’t help us get past the first round any year he was here. true enough. But, to be a good leadoff hitter, you need to get on base. Check out was his B.A. was during the postseason with us starting with the 2000 playoffs. .091(Gee, ever wonder why we were out in 3 straight games?), 2002 in .250, in 2003 a robust .211, in 2004, he finally did good, .381, decided that wasn’t nearly as much fun and hit .231 points lower in the 2005 NLDS (.150!) A chance of scenery made a real difference for Raffy, as he hit .182 last year for the Dodgers. David Eckstein hit .364 for the Cards.

You don’t HAVE to have a speedy guy or 2 at the top, but it sure helps, unless you are an A.L. kind of team like the Yankees or Red Sox that walk like crazy.

Isn’t it possible one reason that Giles didn’t do as well in 06 as previous years was that without Furcal in front of him, he didn’t see nearly as many fastballs? No pitchers trying to rush a pitch, and leaving a hanging curve over the plate???

By Shaun

January 2, 2007 09:01 AM | Link to this

berigan,

To see how important a speedy leadoff hitter is, you need look no farther than the 2006 Braves. They scored the 2nd most runs in the NL without a speedy leadoff hitter.

You can also look at other teams in baseball history who scored a lot of runs but were slow—the Oakland A’s of the very late 1990’s-early 2000’s come to mind.

There are more important things to scoring runs than speed. Avoiding outs for as long as possible/getting on base and earning as many bases as possible in a given inning are much more important. Speed can help you do this, but not as much as being a good hitter, taking walks, etc.

The best way to look at offense is from a defensive perspective. What does a team try to do on offense? Get outs as quickly as possible/keep the other team off base and keep the other team from advancing around the bases if they should get on base. So doesn’t it follow that the goal on offense should be to avoid outs for as long as possible/get as many people on base as possible and earn as many bases as possible when you get on base?

On offense the most important things are a low out percentage (which is the exact same thing as a high on-base percentage) and a high slugging percentage (because that is how many bases you earn per at bat). Speed is important because it can help a hitter avoid an out/get on and can also help a baserunner advance quicker, but it’s not a necessity.

By Ray

January 2, 2007 09:18 AM | Link to this

A couple of points here,, Efrin, Correct if I misread but one of your blogs you made a comment you do not remember Wickman pitching in a big moment, Unlike Gonzalez and Ray. When have Gonzalez and Ray EVER pitched in a big moment? They have never even sniffed a big moment, look at the teams they play for. Also, in regards to the lead off man, Berigan you nailed it in regards to Furcal. It doesn’t matter HOW fast you are if you are NOT getting on base. I believe Kelly Johnson very well could fill that spot nicely. The key for him will be NOT to get off to a slow start. It may wear on him mentally and start pressing. Blanco could also really open some eyes come spring training. He could be the wild card in that mix. One final note in regards to Cox bunting too much etc and his game strategy. Its sooo easy to say good or bad decision AFTER the fact. DOB this may have been before your time, don’t know but in ‘88 when the Winter Meetings were here at the Marriott Marquis I was fortunate or unfortunately stuck in an elevator with Frank Robinson and Tommy Lasorda, it was stuck in between floors. Lasorda after a few “F” bombs.. started to talk baseball and he made a good point. Unlike other sports, in baseball there really are NOT any right or wrong decisions, just those that do and do not work. If you have a guy attempt a bunt and he pops it up, not a wrong decision, just didn’t execute— didn’t work. Or if you send a guy on a steal and gets thrown out, it simply didn’t work. In basketball if you are down by 3 with 2 seconds left and you go in and make a layup, BAD decision… You all get his point. By the way, I think Lasorda set a world record with “f” bombs in that 30 + minutes and Robinson was a bit freaked out. Gooooo braves

By Efrim D

January 2, 2007 09:38 AM | Link to this

Ray, You are wrong I didn’t say Gonzalez and Ray have pitched in big moments. They haven’t. BUT they have better STUFF than Bob Wickman. STUFF means that the quality of their pitches are better. Gonzalez and Ray throw sliders, that break harder than Wickman. They also throw fastballs that well….. are faster with more movement than Bob Wickman. Im sorry but that is what I said.

By Lew

January 2, 2007 09:50 AM | Link to this

Efrim-Wagner has better stuff than Wickman, yet in the past two seasons, Wickman has only one less save in the same number of oppurtunities. The best STUFF I have seen in the past year belongs to Seth McClung of the DRays. He led the AL in losses last year. If you can’t put the ball where you want it, then stuff don’t mean excrement to a tree.

By Ray

January 2, 2007 10:00 AM | Link to this

NO worries Efrim. I misread your comment.I will not disagree with you as far as better stuff. But the 3 important keys to effective pitching in this order are Location, movement and then velocity. Wickman is a top 10 closer. Not pretty but effective. Bottom line gets the job done at a high percentage. I do believe the Braves will add one more piece to the bullpen. One quick note on Boyer, over the holidays he started long toss. He is not allowed to throw off the mound yet.

By Efrim D

January 2, 2007 10:07 AM | Link to this

DAP, heres a stat.Let me give you Tim Hudson’s line in 2003.

240 Inning pitched 197 hits allowed 162 K’s 61 walks 2.70 era

Great year. He was incredible. Well if you remember, Tim Hudson hurt himself in the ALDS versus the Boston Red Sox that October. Since then he has not recovered. Numbers for 2004 -2006:

2004 188.1 innings 194 hits 44 walks 103 K’s 3.53 ERA 12-6

2005 192.0 innings 194 hits 65 walks 115 K’s 3.52 ERA 14-9

2006 218.1 innings 235 hits 79 walks 141 K’s 4.86 ERA 13-12

Now I heard KC mention the fact that Mussina and Clemens had off years in their careers but bounced back. I can’t remember them having Oblique Injuries. Well what is bounce back first off. Will Hudson return to 2003 form before the OBLIQUE Injury? Or are we getting a mediocre Tim Hudson? Yes he is above average, but he isn’t the DOMINANT Pitcher that we traded for. 2.90 ERA in the AMERICAN LEAGUE IN 2003. That is dominance. But then he got hurt. Yes is velocity was the same and his stuff was still good this last season. Except for the fact that he has completely lost the ability to throw his “OUT” pitch. The split finger fastball that was used to get left handers out. I don’t need to look at stats to see that Tim Hudson has probably struggled more against lefties than he has righties since that time. Well it is because he continually offers a splitter that can’t be enticing to a left handed hitter. I thought Tim Hudson was going to bounce back early last year,but then Interleague started and he was absolutly destroyed by the AL East powerhouses.

BOTTOM LINE, I PERSONALLY THINK HUDSON HAS TO PROOVE THAT HE IS HEALTHY AND ABLE TO EFFECTIVELY GET LEFTIES OUT BEFORE BRAVES FANS CAN HAVE FAITH IN HIM. He has lost the ability to throw the split finger fastball, which was his most dominant out pitch. If you don’t agree with it fine, but it is the truth and the argument is flawed in no way. All I heard was stats over his career, but give me one good reason why i should think he has recovered from that injury fully? He hasn’t been able to throw that pitch. Lefties hit something like .280 off him last year. I remember his old friend Jason Giambi hitting two home runs off him in a June game where he tried to get him out with splitters that just didnt split. I was at that game. And no Im not a Yankee fan, I hate them more than anything.

By Efrim D

January 2, 2007 10:08 AM | Link to this

Lew, Wagner or Wickman, who is a better pitcher? No stats, who is a better pitcher?

By NYM

January 2, 2007 10:16 AM | Link to this

Does anybody know what the braves record was before Wickman and what it was after? The braves did finsih four games under .500 so I was curious.

By NYM

January 2, 2007 10:52 AM | Link to this

By the end of July the braves were 48-56. That’s eight games under .500. I’m not sure exactley when Wickman was obtained but I’m assuming it was at the trading deadline. They ended the season four games under so having a better closer didn’t get the braves much improvement in wins and losses. As for all those gloom predictions for the Mets starting pitching. Keep in mind. It’s the same starters who pitched for most of the second half and it didn’t slow the Mets down. Yes Trachsel is gone but lets me honest. His run support was great. Any decent pitcher would have the same amount of wins. His ERA was almost 5 runs per. So he wasn’t pitching lights out to get those 15 wins. Just as last year the Mets will have decent pitching coupled with a great offense will keep the Mets in contention. I’m almost certain Minaya will trade for a good pitcher before the season starts which will validate my point.

By Sam

January 2, 2007 11:02 AM | Link to this

NYM - For the record, the Braves were 6 games under when they got Wickman and played 2 over the rest of the way. I would imagine your question was intended to point out that the Braves were not THAT much better with Wickman. Of course, considering that Wickman was nearly perfect in save situations and considering how awful the Braves had been in save situations up to his arrival I think your point (if that was your point) is hardly valid.

By Steven

January 2, 2007 11:07 AM | Link to this

BRING BACK KEVIN GRYBOSKI, HE IS A FREE AGENT AND PROBABILY WOULD BE CHEAP. WE NEED HIM BACK IN OUR PEN GO BRAVES

By MGL

January 2, 2007 11:13 AM | Link to this

NYM - 34-32 after Wickman arrived on July 20.

By NYM

January 2, 2007 11:19 AM | Link to this

Sam, I’m sure there aren’t too many points that a Mets fan can make that you would find valid.

By NYM

January 2, 2007 11:30 AM | Link to this

Here’s are other unvalid points. Wickmans ERA was over 4.00 with Cleveland in 2006. He’s 38 and over weight…….

By KC

January 2, 2007 11:45 AM | Link to this

Efrim: I think there are several teams with good rotations… none with great rotations. There are only two rotations that are potentially great: Atlanta and Florida.

Who’s number one? It’s hard to say just yet. But can confidently state that it’s either Atlanta or Florida. It really depends on how long it takes Hampton to shake off the rust, and how well Tim Hudson bounces back this season, where Atlanta is concerned. And for Florida, it’s all about how well their young guys perform. Can guys like Sanchez, and Olsen avoid a sophomore slump, or can Ricky Nalasco develop into the pitcher they think he can be (the Braves face the same question with Kyle Davies).

If I were building a new team and could take any rotation in the NL, I would take Florida’s… assuming I was building for the future. But if I were trying to win this year, I would take Atlanta’s. The Braves are the only team in the league with 3 proven aces. Granted, 2 of them will have prove themselves all over again with Hudson coming off a lousy year and Hampton returning from TJ surgery, but I think the odds favor that happening in both cases. And of course, don’t forget about Chuck James.

The Dodgers, Padres, and Brewers are all 3-deep, but we’re not talking about 3 aces or a “big 3” with any of these teams. They are each in pretty much the same boat… 1 ace, and 2 quality starters. Not bad, but not great… or even very good.

Here are my predictions for the Braves rotation:

Smoltz: 18-7, 3.21 ERA.

Hudson: 17-8, 3.14 ERA (okay, I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict an excellent season from Hudson).

Hampton: 14-9, 3.81 ERA (4.40 ERA in the first half… 2.90 ERA in the 2nd half)

James: 15-8, 3.76 ERA.

Davies: 12-9, 4.33 ERA

Yes, I do think there will be three 15 game winners from the Braves. They’ve got good starting pitching that will be aided by a very good bullpen and excellent run support… so I don’t think three 15 game winners is at all far fetched.

Don’t underestimate the effect that having an excellent bullpen will have the starters. Mentally, they are less likely to press too hard, and physically, they won’t be overworked.

By JB

January 2, 2007 11:48 AM | Link to this

Wickman’s ERA for 2006 was 2.67 and 1.04 with the Braves. He will likely post a sub-4.00 ERA in 2007.

By Efrim D

January 2, 2007 12:01 PM | Link to this

KC, Hudson is going out on a limb. But the rest of them could be spot on. Padres are 4 deep. Clay Hensley is the real deal. You think highly of Chuck James, but check out Hensley’s stats. Very impressive. By the way, Baseball America shelled out the Braves Top 10: here is the link.

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/features/263052.html

By KC

January 2, 2007 12:05 PM | Link to this

Efrim:

Yes, I mentioned Clemens, Mussina, Smoltz, Kevin Brown… and there were a few I didn’t mention. I found numerous instances where a perennial ace had a lousy season (in his prime) for no apparent reason. Again, I honestly couldn’t find a single case over the past 25 years where this happened and that pitcher didn’t bounce right back.

In regard to one of your recent posts… I would like to point out that a 3.53/3.52 ERA is better than “above” average… it is very good (top-15% to be exact, and last year that ERA would have been in the top 7%). Pitchers with ERA’s of close to 4.00 (Zito, D-Train, Glavine, and others) are widely considered “aces” these days, so 3.52 looks pretty darn good to me.

I would be thrilled to get a 3.53 ERA from Hudson over 34 starts. If he does that, he’ll win no fewer than 17-18 games, guaranteed. But I think if you have healthy and sharp Tim Hudson, you can look for an ERA in the low-3.00 range or better.

As for Tim Hudson’s splitter… perhaps my memory is failing me, but I seem to remember him having a great splitter some nights, and not so great on other nights. But then… isn’t the story of his entire 2006 season? If he’s sharp and healthy this year, I suspect that splitter will be there for him.

By Thrillhouse44

January 2, 2007 12:11 PM | Link to this

NYM: Unvalid isn’t a word. I think you meant invalid. I bet your mom is so proud of you.

By Lew

January 2, 2007 12:15 PM | Link to this

Steven-Kevin Gryboski has pitched 15 innings since leaving the Braves in 05. His ERA was 11.12 with Texas in 05 in 11 games and 14.29 at Washington in 06 in 6 games. Do you really think Gryboski ias still effective or worth picjing up. If so, why? Efrim-I think Wickman is a bona fide stud closer, no matter how overweight he may be. In the past three season, Wicky is 91-101 in saves with an ERA of 3.30 (pitching in the AL). Wagner is 99-109 in saves with a 2.50 ERA. I contend that this is not a major difference between the two. Wagner may have a slight edge, but statistically (and you have to look at performance, Dude), but Wickman has been damn near as effective as Wagner. I’d rather have Wickman at this point. He makes half of what Wagner pulls in. Considering the Braves budgetary restrictions, the Braves got a great deal. No way you can spin it otherwise. NYM-The Mets are not as great as you think and the Braves not as bad. I have every confidence that the Braves will prove this during the coming season. We can just wait and see. The Mets have had talent on the team for many of the past 15 years, but only won the division once, when the rest of the division had a bad year. I look at 06 as an abberration for both teams. The Mets because they won despite having terrible pitching, which they still do. I just don’t see the offense being able to save their sorry pitching for two straight years, any more than I see the Braves blowing 29 saves again, or having a 6-23 month again. We shall see. There, I made my point without mentioning Beltran’s incontinent moment at the Series-OOPS.

By David O'Brien

January 2, 2007 12:18 PM | Link to this

Efrim, you asked Lew, not me, but I hope you don’t mind if I answer the question you posed: “Wagner or Wickman, who is a better pitcher? No stats, who is a better pitcher?”

Wagner is. But after being at Shea Stadium for a couple of Wagner’s postseason appearances, and talking to several NY writers who covered him all season, I know who I’d prefer to have in a pressure situation: Wickman. No question.

By David O'Brien

January 2, 2007 12:23 PM | Link to this

RAY, great anecdote. And you wrote: “By the way, I think Lasorda set a world record with “f” bombs in that 30 + minutes and Robinson was a bit freaked out. Gooooo braves.”

Only guy I’ve been around who might drop more f-bombs than Lasorda is Mike Shannon, the former Cardinal and longtime Cardinals broadcaster. Sat in Jim Leyland’s office a couple of times when Shannon stopped by, and listening to those two go at it was 10-15 of the most “colorful” minutes you could possibly imagine.

By Ray

January 2, 2007 12:45 PM | Link to this

I agree with DOB, I much would rather have Wickman in a playoff game over Wagner. His playoff performance is not so steller considering he is supposed to be one of the absolute top closers in the game. Yeah Dave, I forgot all about Leyland’s use of the colorful language. Lasorda is right though, in football if its 3rd and 20 and you HAVE to get a first down or get in field goal range, you run the ball up the middle and it doesn’t work that is a wrong decision. Oh one other thing that most manager’s believe is that there are only about 50 games a manager truly has an effect on. I do believe IF and this may be a big IF, the braves stay relatively healthy especially the pitching staff then they will win 90+ games. And if that happens, they will have the pitchers that can carry them in the playoffs. I always compare it like a goalie in the hockey playoffs. You get a couple hot pitchers in the playoffs they will carry you to the promise land. Hudson, Hampton and Smoltz all have the talent and the mental make-up to shut down teams in the playoffs given the chance. With the potential bullpen the difference is as many have stated this year, they would be well rested as well. Of course all speculation in January.

By Shaun

January 2, 2007 12:45 PM | Link to this

Efrim and KC,

There are certain things that are going to happen that are out of a pitchers control and stats that are typically used to judge pitchers are rather unreliable. Wins is the most obvious because wins depend on run support, etc. But even ERA, which is commonly used as a good measure is not so good. ERA depends a lot on defense. And once a ball leaves the bat, there’s a lot of chance as to where that ball will land. Not much separates a sharp grounder in the whole from a sharp grounder right at the shortstop.

This is why you see so much “inconsistency” with pitchers (well, this and the injury risks involved with pitching). But if you look closely, the pitchers that are good at making hitters miss the bat, avoiding walks and avoiding homeruns are fairly consistent in those categories from year-to-year.

So if a pitcher like John Smoltz, who strikesout a lot of guys, doesn’t walk a lot of guys and doesn’t give up too many homeruns, has a bad ERA, gives up a lot of runs and doesn’t win many games, you’d expect him to be better the following year in terms of W-L and ERA, as long as injury is not a factor.

By Efrim D

January 2, 2007 12:50 PM | Link to this

DOB, I disagree, but that is my opinion. How many big games has Bob Wickman pitched in? I know Wagner isn’t rock solid in big games, Chipper Jones hitting a bomb off him in the playoffs when Wagner was with the Astros is the one I think of, but I would not take Wickman over Billy Wagner. I guess we will just have to wait and see for the season to start. Everyone basically thinks the Braves are in the World Series as of right now because of adding Bob Wickman and Rafael Soriano. People also are saying Hudson is going to rebound and put up a 3.18 era next year, Hampton is an ace, and Blaine Boyer and Tyler Yates are better options than Aaron Heilman. I just don’t see it. Can the Braves win the world series? Can the Texas Rangers??? Sure. Thats baseball. I just think you guys are way too optimistic about next year. You might thnk I am way too negative. I think the Braves are going to battle it out till the bitter end. But I just think that the Phillies and Mets will both make the playoffs next year, leaving the Braves with a third place finish. Reasons why?? Tim Hudson and Mike Hampton. I just don’t see them winning a combined 30+ games. I expect them to both be in the neighborhood of 12-14 victories. I know what you will all say, “their offense was great this year and their bullpen sucked and Hudson still won 13 games”. I don’t care. That is my prediction. In 2008 the Braves will resign Smoltz for one more season, Soriano will be the Closer, and the Braves will have roughly 15 million to spend on a middle reliever or two, a CF and a 2B. Its also an important year for the minor league system because guys like Jo Jo Reyes and Matt Harrison may be able to contribute in 2008. Salty might be converted into 1st base/LF or traded for pitching. They will be better in 2008 than they will be in 2007, even with the loss of Andruw Jones. So we will see.

By MBATL

January 2, 2007 12:53 PM | Link to this

DOB, that’s interesting that Shannon (who I don’t know) would have a “potty mouth” … I would think that’d be a dangerous habit for a guy who makes his living talking live on TV or radio…

Ron and KC, love the optimism, but if JS and BC think our staff is as good as you do, why did we state our “main priority” for the offseason as signing Glavine?

By David O'Brien

January 2, 2007 01:03 PM | Link to this

MBATL, yes, I’ve thought the same thing of Shannon _ how amazing it is that he can just turn off that part of his vocabulary. He’s entertaining on the air, but especially off the air. Funny guy. And rich, from that Mike Shannon’s steakhouse he runs next to Busch Stadium.

And on THIS DAY in HISTORY:

1977: Braves owner Ted Turner is suspended for one year by Commissioner Bowie Kuhn due to tampering charges in the free-agency signing of Gary Matthews.

By David O'Brien

January 2, 2007 01:10 PM | Link to this

Efrim, that’s the nature of fans _ they’re SUPPOSED to be optimistic about their own teams, even if deep down they have questions or doubts or whatever. If everyone here was so negative about the Braves, and didn’t feel renewed hope as spring training beckons, it’d be a pretty dispirited place to hang out, this blog.

But they’re not. Like fans in Boston, Chicago and other places, they want to believe. And here in Atlanta, they have a lot more reason to feel good about their team than many or even most places in baseball. So let them.

By the way, I’m talking about Wags now, now the Wags of yesteryear. Several, and I mean several, reporters told me, and a few like Lupica wrote it during the NLCS, that folks in NY had an uneasy feeling the entire year about Wagner, that he might have meltdowns at the most inopportune time. He’s not the same pitcher he was in his Houston heyday.

Closers just don’t last that long at an elite level anymore, and he’s at the extreme end of contemporary closers in terms of “life” expectancy. Unless your name is Mariano and you throw a nearly unhittable cutter, or it’s Hoffman and you have a bottomless pit of guile to go with that change-up.

By David O'Brien

January 2, 2007 01:18 PM | Link to this

Oh, and Hoffman also has an almost Maddux-like ability to put every pitch exactly where he wants to put it. It ain’t just the change-up that’s made Hoffman great for so long.

By MBATL

January 2, 2007 01:19 PM | Link to this

Ted was a lot like Arthur Blank in a lot of ways… “hands on” to a fault. All the talk about wanting Blank to buy the Braves has quieted with the way things have gone with the Falcons. I’d love to have a private owner who had a passion for the team, but would sure hope that would be limited to signing checks.

Blank didn’t even show the professional courtesy of allowing GM Rich McKay to announce the firing of Mora. I don’t know that Scheurholz could survive (or, would choose to operate) in that kind of environment.

By anonymous

January 2, 2007 01:25 PM | Link to this

You guys are treating Reitsma like he never did anything for the Braves. Remember 2004: he set up the eighth inning for John Smoltz to come in the ninth, quite sucessfully, I might add. And another thing, this should be the Braves Roster next year: Lineup 1.Rocco Baldelli LF 2.Edgar Renteria SS 3.Chipper Jones 3B 4.Andruw Jones CF 5.Brian McCann C 6.Jeff Francoeur RF 7.Adam LaRoche 1B 8.Kelly Johnson 2B

Bench 1.Matt Stairs 1B/OF (Free Agent) 2.Willy Aybar 2B/3B 3.Ryan Langerhans OF 4.Pete Orr INF 5.Todd Pratt C (one more year)

Rotation 1.John Smoltz 2.Tim Hudson 3.Mike Hampton 4.Chuck James 5.Steve Trachsel (Free Agent)

Bullpen 1.Bob Wickman CL 2.Rafael Soriano SU 3.Mike Gonzalez MR 4.Macay McBride MR 5.Blaine Boyer MR 6.Chris Reitsma MR 7.John Foster MR

So as you see, this would probably be a playoff team. It has a good rotation,lineup, and it definitely has a stong bullpen. You get Mike Gonzalez from Pittsburgh for Scott Thorman and Yunel Escobar (minor leaguer). Then trade Kyle Davies, Elvis Andrus (minor) and Mionor League Catcher Jarrod Saltalamcchia.

By Daybed Wagmoe

January 2, 2007 01:28 PM | Link to this

DOB - in my day-to-day calendar, one of the fun facts recently said that when Ted Turner was the owner, he served as manager for one game before being told that he could no longer do so. do you know the story behind this? did the commissioner of baseball tell him he couldn’t do that?

By David O'Brien

January 2, 2007 01:41 PM | Link to this

Efrim, I do feel like I should provide something to quantify my statement about Hoffman, since the man obviously still has amazing stats, far better than Wickman’s (Wagner had a 2.24 ERA and 94 K in 72-1/3 innings last season, so it’s not as if he’s throwing 85 now and barely hanging on).

But his big-game performance was a bit unsettling for NY observers last season, even before the postseason. He doesn’t throw as hard, all the time, as he used to, his command can waver at inopportune times, and his opponents’ average and OPS last season went from .178 and .485 in July, to .234/.642 in August, to .319/.780 in September, and seven hits and five runs allowed in his last two appearances of the postseason vs. St. Louis.

But here’s what I meant about him in the biggest games. I had no idea it was this bad, but here’s what I found when I just went to Stats Inc. for a look at his career game-by-game postseason stats:

Since 1997, 11 postseason appearances, 10-1/3 innings, 18 hits, 11 earned runs, 3 homers, 1 walk, 11 strikeouts.

He gave up at least one run in six of 11 postseason games, and multiple runs in four of 11.

Wickman hasn’t really pitched enough in the postseason to get a good read (only four games, three in 1995 and one in 2001).

But here’s what he did, just FYI: 4 appearances, five hits, no runs, no walks, 5 strikeouts.

By David O'Brien

January 2, 2007 01:44 PM | Link to this

Daybed, yes and yes on your questions about Ted’s managerial stint. That circus act got a LOT of attention (imagine how much it would get today, with ESPN and all). He wore a uni and all. Man, what I’d give to have covered the team then, even briefly.

By Harry

January 2, 2007 01:45 PM | Link to this

DOB- you do a heeluva job. We’re lucky to have a beat writer as interested in baseball as you are. Also enjoy your music blurbs. I agree with your top 25 albums in large part, with the excpetion of the Boss’ album. Thought it was one of the years’ worst. Then again, haven’t thought much of Bruce since his 9/11 exploitation “rise up” song.

By KC

January 2, 2007 01:51 PM | Link to this

MBATL: John Schuerholz and co. set out on a mission to make the pitching as good as it can possibly be. Adding Tom Glavine was the best (and probably the only) opportunity to strengthen our rotation. JS stated that Glavine was the Braves #1 off-season target.

I’m not sure why you interpret the Braves pursuit of Glavine as a sign that they don’t feel good about the pitching staff as it stands now. No matter how good the rotation is or isn’t… Glavine could have made it better, and that’s why they wanted him. JS doesn’t, like any good GM, is always looking for a way to improve the team… whether its coming off a 79 win season or a 110 win season… makes no difference.

Here’s another thing… in this market, we all know that 32 mill owed Hudson over the next three years does not look like a monstrous sum. If the Braves simply wanted to unload Hudson, they could have done it in a heartbeat (in a market where V.Padilla and Ted Lilly will earn the same money as Hudson). The only possibly reason Hudson wasn’t traded in time to make room for Glavine, is that the Braves still think too much of him to give him away for less than what they feel he’s worth.

The Braves wanted to get Glavine, but more accurately… they wanted to get Glavine and a fair return for Hudson. If the Braves could have done that, it would have been a great move. If the Braves could have acquired Glavine and a top pitching prospect, a leadoff hitter, or whatever they were hoping to get for Hudson… it would have improved the team. But the Braves couldn’t complete a deal (for Hudson) they felt was fair in time to sign Glavine. The only possible reason Hudson’s still here, is because the Braves haven’t lost confidence in him. Think about it… if they lost all faith, he’d already be gone. Now I’m sure they aren’t as confident in him as they were a couple years ago, or even heading into last season, but they obviously believe in him to some degree.

And I will also tell you, and I believe DOB can confirm this, that everyone associated with the Braves organization feels really good about getting Hampton back. He will have fully recovered over 18 months by the time he makes his return.

MBATL, JS and BC have both expressed a great deal of optimism and confidence (and sincerely so, I believe) in this pitching staff heading into next season. It appears that Braves management, and at least on Braves writer (Mark Bowman - link below) feel as I do about the Braves prospects heading into next season.

http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/news/article.jsp?ymd=20061222&contentid=1766760&vkey=newsatl&fext=.jsp&c_id=atl

By Fed Up

January 2, 2007 01:56 PM | Link to this

Daybed Wagmoe:

Yes, that actually happened. It was 76, I think. The team was awful. The big attraction at Fulton County Stadium was ostrich races. Ted was ordered to stop managing by the commissioner. My bet is that the Braves are now investing in ostriches for this year’s ostrich races. They’re going to need something to distract people from the awful team on the field in the coming years of no money to re-sign players like Andruw and Smoltz.

By TennesseePaul

January 2, 2007 01:58 PM | Link to this

KC: I think the Padres will have a stellar staff this year. Up there more so with the Braves. I’d even put them ahead of the Braves. If Hudson gets a pass for his Off-Year-Not-In-Decline-KC-Said-So Season, than Peavy does as well. And the good thing about Peavy is, his off year wasn’t as awful as Hudson’s. Hensley looked pretty sharp this past season and Chris Young is going to be amazing. And now that Maddux is there to help all these guys out, they should be even better. They don’t have a 3 deep rotation. It’s about 4 deep. Maddux should have a good year in Petco. He had a good half season in the NL West last year, and now he gets a whole season to play out there. They have 5 parks in that Division, 3 of them are pitchers parks. Coor’s field is a little different now with the Humidor. Besides, the Padres now have a pretty good defense up the middle. Piazza is no longer at the backstop turning BB, HBP, Singles, Reach on Error’s, Fielder’s Choices and everything else into an extra base(s). They should be a good team next season.

By KC

January 2, 2007 02:08 PM | Link to this

MBATL and others: In regard to my famed optimism…

It’s interesting that I have such a reputation as a cheery loyalist. Had you heard me a couple years ago when we had Wright, Ortiz, and Thompson as our “big 3”, you probably wouldn’t believe you were talking to the same person.

The fact of the matter is that there are many good reasons to be optimistic about this team, and that’s why I’m excited about them heading into next season. But let me clarify a couple of things.

First of all, a number of you are probably of the impression that I’m banking on a Cy Young season from Hudson next year. I’m not. If I were laying odds… I’d say there’s about a 70% chance that Hudson will be solid next season. I define “solid” as an ERA under 4.00 and something in the neighborhood of 15 wins. I would say there’s about a 50/50 chance that he’ll return himself to “ace” status next year. The only thing I’m willing to say with any confidence is that I think he’ll be much better next season. I believe that for reasons I’ve documented many times and will not repeat here.

As for Mike Hampton, I’m not looking for 20 wins out of him. While there’s every reason to believe that he’ll be perfectly healthy, I expect that it will take him a little time to shake off the rust. I predict that he will be mediocre in the first half (ERA in the low-mid 4.00 range), but will get in a groove eventually and turn in a very good 2nd half (ERA in the low-3.00’s or better after the break).

As for what I expect from the rest of the team… I expect Smoltz and James to do pretty much the same thing they did last year. I expect guys Villarreal, McBride, and Yates to pitch almost as well as they did late in the season (which was very well). I am looking for solid performances from Wickman and Soriano, and I think the offense will score a lot of runs.

If these are pie in the sky expectations… so be it. But I honestly believe my expectations are fairly reasonable. From what I’ve said… what exactly is it that strikes you as irrationally optimistic?

By MBATL

January 2, 2007 02:10 PM | Link to this

KC, I am very optimistic about our rotation, but just not by comparison to you!

Frankly, I never could understand our interest in Glavine because I do expect Hudson to improve; and at 30 (31?) years old, he’s a better investment than TommyGun. But it still tells me that the Braves don’t have the confidence that you have in Hudson’s return to form. Like you say, he’s a good value IF he pitches like he did prior to last year.

Anyway, your response was well-put. Thanks.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

January 2, 2007 02:12 PM | Link to this

Well DOB,

I got a wake-up phone call on New Years Eve at about 11:45 Central time, from a good friend of mine (graduated high school with me) who now lives in Athens, GA. All I could hear was fans screaming and Patterson Hood singing “Bulldozers and Dirt.” Must have been a helluva show. Also wanted to add (since Matthew has apparently abandoned ship) that the Hogs got shut down by the Badgers in the Capital One Bowl. It’s amazing that we feature the Heisman runner-up, but won’t give him the damn ball.

By Ray

January 2, 2007 02:16 PM | Link to this

I would not Blank to own the Braves. The one thing that turned the Braves around and the Yankees is when the respective owners got out of the way and let their “baseball” people do their jobs. Cashman, and people like Mark Newman (who has in the last couple of years gotten out of ny because of George) were instrumental in building the Yanks to what they are.. unfortunately. Cox and Snyder and company and then JS help build the Braves. Point is, Turner and Steinbrenner were FINALLY intelligent enough to put their egos aside and let the people they hire do their jobs. Angelos obviously graduated Magna cum lauda from the “george steinbrenner” school of ownership. He is worse than THE BOSS ever was in getting too involved. He will not let his people do their jobs and that is one of the main reasons Baltimore a once proud franchise is barely ahead of a Tampa franchise. So I am all for a private owner providing he lets his baseball people do their jobs. Maybe Liberty will allow the budgets rise when that deal closes but more importantly does NOT cut budgets especially when it comes down to the scouting departments.

By David O'Brien

January 2, 2007 02:24 PM | Link to this

Thanks, Harry. You know, I left out a few CDs that I could easily and probably should have included, including Todd Snyder’s latest (The Devil You Know), My Morning Jacket’s live album, and the awesome CDs by Alejandro Escovedo (The Boxing Mirror), Rosanne Cash (Black Cadillac) re-issues by Merle Haggard, Billy Bragg and Lucinda Williams … just so much great stuff.

Maybe that Bruce rockin’ folk CD polarized people. But I tell you, for me it holds up well. I honestly just listened to it again yesterday, and there’s some great stuff on there, and to me it’s the sound of Bruce really enjoying the process and havin’ fun for the first time in a while. Watch the DVD that comes on the opposite side of the CD and tell me you don’t dig that. I mean, he ain’t faking it. At all.

On another note, did you happen to get the Born To Run remastered, three-CD set that came out a year or so ago? God, that’s great stuff, including the making-of documentary about the painstaking process that went into producing that beautiful rockin’ album.

I’d never call him a sellout. Ever. If he sold out, he’d avoid making political statements and offending a good percentage of his old fan base. If anything, as he’s aged and gotten comfortable with himself and his station, he’s said to hell with massive popularity and like him for what he is, or don’t like him. He doesn’t seem to much care, to me. And that’s cool.

I sort of agree on the timing of the “rising” song. But I honestly don’t believe he was exploiting the situation. He felt he was doing something, and that he needed or wanted to do something. A blip on the career, either way. Hardly going to effect how I view him in the big picture. He’s a towering figure in my view. Essential.

By KC

January 2, 2007 02:25 PM | Link to this

TennPaul: I wholeheartedly agree that too much should not be read into Peavy’s 2006 season.

And I never gave Hudson a “pass” for 06’. I’ve clearly said many times that he was awful last year. I have never tried to defend his 2006 season. Now, I do feel that his 04’ and 05’ seasons are often mischaracterized… and that statistically, he remained one of the better pitchers in baseball up until last season. I have also gone on record as saying that I believe he will pitch much better in 07’ than he did last year.

In regard to San Diego’s pitching… I see the point many of you have been making now. I didn’t know much about Hensley. It does appear the San Diego is in fact 4-deep in their rotation.

Still… Smoltz vs. Peavy? I’ll take Smoltz.

Young and (76 year old) Greg Maddux vs. Hudson and Hampton? Hard to know what they’ll get out of Maddux, and we don’t know for sure what Hudson and Hampton will do, so it’s hard to say.

Hensley vs. James… I don’t know, but it looks like a wash to me.

All in all, as I look at starting rotations right now, I think the Braves, Marlins, and Padres look the best. Though, honestly… when it comes to winning this year, I’ll still give a slight edge to Atlanta over either. Again… that’s because I think the odds are in favor of the Braves getting solid seasons from Hudson and Hampton, and they are experienced winners.

Either way… Atlanta has stronger bullpen than Florida, and a much stronger offense than either the Marlins or Padres. So when it comes down to it… the Braves have a more complete ball club. But I agree with you TennPaul, the Padres should be good next season. Should be a fun race to watch between them and LA in the west.

By TennesseePaul

January 2, 2007 02:26 PM | Link to this

Mark Bowman’s optimism in his 2007 Preview article served more to disappoint me than anything. I just don’t trust that guy. When he puts a positive spin on it, I get the impression he’s seeking a silver lining that isn’t there. This impression would exist no matter what topic Bowman covers. I don’t know why. Maybe it’s because Bowman copies DOB so much. When Bowman goes out on his own, he’s usually incorrect, to put it politely. Basically, I felt better about the season until I read Bowman’s feel good article.

I think this team will do well and I hope that the injuries that hit the team all of last season, don’t come around again. I know NYM had blinders on and thinks the Braves lost last season due to a lack of talent. The truth was bullpen and injuries. Injuries to the pitching staff forcing the call up of what seemed to be a never ending march of crap. Barry, Shiell, Smith, and so on. A full season of healthy starters will do wonders to even last seasons pen. An improved pen will highlight as much. And a youthful foundation (McCann, McBride, Boyer, James, Davies, Francoeur, LaRoche, Thorman, Langerhans from our system alone), Larger and younger than the Mets (Reyes, Heilman, Wright), will ensure that the second best offense in the league will return.

Midway point last season, Braves withdrew Thomson from the team, dealt Sosa, Stablized the rotation with James, procured Wickman and corrected the mechanics of two relievers. The result was, the Braves played on par with a 90 win season. Prior to all those changes the Braves played on par with a 63 win season. Next years team should be a 90+ win team. And, if we get all the breaks, 162 win team with a perfect post season record. But I’m not counting on all the breaks for the Braves to win. Just some of them.

Another thing working against the Mets is the improvement the Phillies had after they started making trades at the all star break. Now, both the Braves and Phillies along with the Marlins are coming into ‘07 in better shape. The big change… the Mets signed another 40 year old outfielder, lost a few relievers and a starter.

By KC

January 2, 2007 02:29 PM | Link to this

MBATL: Yeah, again… I think the Braves interest in Glavine was perfectly understandable when you consider that what they were trying to do was to add Glavine and get a considerably return for Hudson.

By Thomas

January 2, 2007 02:32 PM | Link to this

Good article DOB:

I agree with what the braves are trying to do with kelly johnson, i sure like him better than martin prado. KJ is very pacient and he showed his great bat after his 2 for 34 streak, winning the player of the week. His has great pacience, and OBP, to be our leadoff hitter but the question for me is can he run as a leadoff hitter, can he make bunt base hits, can he steal bases. With Furcal gone this year, the stealing base department for the braves decreased an awful lot, our leader in that department was renteria with 17. What was kelly johnson high in SB in the minors?

By Thomas

January 2, 2007 02:32 PM | Link to this

Good article DOB:

I agree with what the braves are trying to do with kelly johnson, i sure like him better than martin prado. KJ is very pacient and he showed his great bat after his 2 for 34 streak, winning the player of the week. His has great pacience, and OBP, to be our leadoff hitter but the question for me is can he run as a leadoff hitter, can he make bunt base hits, can he steal bases. With Furcal gone this year, the stealing base department for the braves decreased an awful lot, our leader in that department was renteria with 17. What was kelly johnson high in SB in the minors?

By Ray

January 2, 2007 02:34 PM | Link to this

Dave, thanks for the Wagner stats. That was a question I had earlier today. What has he done when it mattered. Someone previously mentioned that ERA’s are not a good judge on the effectiveness of a pitcher. (Don’t feel like going back up to see) You are absolutely correct especially when it comes to relievers and closers. Look at the whip’s. Hits + walks per inning. For a starter a good sign is anything under 1.3 A reliever/closer has to be more effective than that. Curious what Wag’s is compared to Wickman.

By KC

January 2, 2007 02:39 PM | Link to this

TennPaul: You’ve got a good head on your shoulders… I can’t imagine why anything Mark Bowman writes would affect the way you feel about this team. Unless of course he points out something you hadn’t thought of previously, which was not the case here.

By David O'Brien

January 2, 2007 02:39 PM | Link to this

Hillbilly, I was wondering when someone might weigh in on New Year’s eve shows, either the DBTs, or Derek Trucks, or Widespread Panic, or whatever. Or did everyone stay home (probably the best choice on amateur night, right?)

By Fed Up

January 2, 2007 02:41 PM | Link to this

DOB:

Bruce’s “rise up” song, “My City of Ruins,” was written about Asbury Park. It became identified with 9/11 because it was on “The Rising” and because it was part of one of the 9/11 telethons. I agree with you about the Seeger Sessions, not a great CD, but a really good one. Reminds me of “The Basement Tapes,” which for my money is one of Dylan’s best.

By David O'Brien

January 2, 2007 02:43 PM | Link to this

KC, yes, everyone in organization is honestly optimistic about Hampton, not just saying it because they know they’re stuck with his contract and better hope he does well.

And by the way, don’t count out the Rockies in the West. Seriously. They showed me something with all those young position players last season. Got some really good young hitters.

By Charles

January 2, 2007 02:45 PM | Link to this

TN Paul:

Many people try to find a silver lining in the clouds, unfortunately lightning kills many of those people before they can find it.

I agree that the Braves will be much better than 2006. They made some excellent moves. It just remains to be seen whether Hudson’s off-season workouts will improve his pitching and Hampton being able to regain form. I think that Smoltz will put up excellent numbers and the rest will fall in behind.

I don’t believe that the Mets will be able to continue on their pace like last year. They have lost Pedro for now, and I don’t think he will return to form after the surgery. And Glavine will reach 300 wins, but they have over spent, and over spending does not always lead to championships (see Yankees). The Braves have a shot if they get the right mentality of wanting to win and leadership stepping up throughout the season, not just when things get rough.

By MBATL

January 2, 2007 02:46 PM | Link to this

KC - God, I try to just say ‘nice argument’ and let it go, but you keep coming back and preaching to me.

Okay, IF the Braves wanted to trade Hudson “for value” and if no one in the league wanted to offer value for him, doesn’t that suggest that maybe, just maybe, the professionals in baseball don’t have confidence in him either?

As you said, the market for starting pitching is through the roof, but we couldn’t get anything of value for Tim Hudson?

All I’m saying is that the professionals in baseball don’t seem to share your confidence; the Braves apparently more than willing to trade a 30-year-old former 20-game winner, and no one in the league willing to put up anything of value for him.

Again, I like Tim Hudson and am glad to have him.

Oh, and Bowman, and all the mlb.com “beat writers” are P.R. tools for the league, and would put a positive spin on the ‘62 Mets.

By KC

January 2, 2007 02:50 PM | Link to this

TennPaul: “the Braves played on par with a 90 win season.”

I think this is the most tangible reason for Braves fans to be optimistic. The fact of the matter is that, had Wickman and Soriano been in the Atlanta bullpen on opening day last season, the Braves’ would have won better than 90 games last season. I’m positive of it. And that’s with Hudson struggling and without Hampton in the rotation at all.

Let’s say the Braves don’t get much from Hampton or Hudson this season. They’ll still have an excellent shot at a 90-plus win season, using the same formula that Mets used last year: great offense and bullpen, with a couple good starters.

If the Braves get good seasons from both Hudson and Hampton, they’ll have a realistic shot at a 100 win season.

By Harry

January 2, 2007 02:56 PM | Link to this

DOB- Have you checked out the Decemberists? First saw them @ Telluride Bluegrass last summer. Pretty good stuff, although recent album disappoints a bit. By the way, you need to take a week off from the Braves in June and hit Telluride. Amazing venue and always a good lineup. I’m waiting for Lucinda and Gillian to get back in the studio.

By Shaun

January 2, 2007 02:56 PM | Link to this

Ray,

Actually WHIP is not too good either. Whether a ball in play is an out or a hit depends largely on things outside of the pitcher’s control (defense, chance, etc.). The best thing to look at when evaluating pitchers are things that the pitcher can control—strikeouts, walks, homeruns.

By KC

January 2, 2007 02:57 PM | Link to this

Ray and Shaun: I agree that ERA doesn’t always tell the whole story when it comes to relievers, but when it comes to starters… ERA is the most accurate measurement of a pitchers success.

A pitcher’s job is to keep the other guys from scoring. Period. Hits, walks, strike outs, ground/fly ball ratios… those stats ultimately mean nothing. It’s all about preventing your opponent from scoring runs.

Now there are 2 things to keep in mind regarding a starter. First, his ERA can vary a little based on how well the bullpen handles inherited runners.

Also, innings pitched per start is an important stat for a starter, because if he’s overworking the bullpen, that detracts from whatever he gives you ever 5 innings or so (please see Jorge Sosa in 2005).

But all in all, ERA is a simple measurement of how many runs a pitcher allowed per 9 innings. No statistic is more relevant or telling of a starting pitcher’s success.

By brian

January 2, 2007 02:58 PM | Link to this

There are a lot of “ifs” in the Braves starting rotation. They will be very good if: 1. Smoltz stays healthy and continues with his dominating stuff another year 2. Hampton returns to full health, stays healthy, and reverts to his form when he was with Houston that he has shown flashes of in Atlanta 3. Hudson returns to form or close to it or at the very least does not continue his decline 4. Chuck James shows that last year was not a fluke and he is for real 5. We find a 5th starter - whether it is Kyle Davies shows more than potential or Cormier or Villareal steps forward and takes the job.

I am most confident with #4.

It still burns me up that Andruw will walk next year and the Braves will get nothing in return. If we are going to act like cash strapped franchise then we need to truly act like one and trade our veteran in a contract year to rebuild for the future and get help for the present. I know that Andruw has to agree to a trade, but if the right one came along and there is no chance of him staying with the Braves it should be done. Unless it looks like the Braves have a legitimate shot for the World Series, there is no way I would let Boras simply use this year with the Braves to audition for the highest bidder. I would make Boras’s, and yes Andruw’s, life more difficult if they vetoed a trade that would help the Braves to a club he would consider (and that would be willing to give him his contract). The Braves would never do that, but I get tired of watching Boras refuse all trades and screw teams just so his player can have a comfortable “walk” year.

By tfbrave

January 2, 2007 02:59 PM | Link to this

Kelly’s high in SB was during his only 20/20 season in the minors at Macon. He had 23 HRs and 25 SBs. He has not stole more than 12 since.

By David O'Brien

January 2, 2007 03:01 PM | Link to this

Anyone want to feel sick to start the new year? Here you go. From the San Francisco Chronicle:

$4,910 – Per-pitch pay of Giants newly signed pitcher Barry Zito, who signed a seven-year, $126M contract, if he matches last season’s total of 3,666 pitches.

By Lew

January 2, 2007 03:08 PM | Link to this

Efrim-No one has said anything about the Braves winning the World Series this year. What we’ve said, conistently to you and NYM, is that with the addition of Wickman and Soriano, that we feel we have the chance to take the division back. It won’t be easy, but it is doable as a result of these additions and the improvement of the bullpen as a whole. We don’t feel that the Mets can overcome two succesive years of having sub par pitching. Yes, they did it last year, but we don’t see them continuing in that regard. We also don’t see the Phillies as having the pitching, either. Now there are definitely questions on our own staff, but the odds are still in our favor in that regard (I refer you to KC’s arguments regarding Hampton and Hudson). Now in regards to Hudson, he DID win 13 games for a team that was 4 games under .500. To use a NY expression, That ain’t chopped liver. His problems came after the fifth and were compounded by a lousy bullpen. If we wwere to get Gonzalez, or someone comparable, which is likely to happen, he can go five with no problem. He’s now got his back covered. The same with Hampton-he won’t have to pitch 7 or 8 innings coming back from surgery. You just have to face it that the Braves are a better team than last year, and less likely to have an extended losing streak like last June. That is what did us in. We were never able to recover. As far as the Series. Right now, I would be much more concerned with the Dodgers, Padres, and maybe the Cubs than the Mets and Phillies. These teams may have put together groups that could be very good. Only IF the best happens with our rotation, will we have a good chance at the World Series. We’ll see. Now Anonymous-We don’t want Trachsel. Also, I don’t see the Braves trading Escobar AND Andrus. That’s plain stupid.

By KC

January 2, 2007 03:12 PM | Link to this

MBATL: I typed all of that before your post in which you said “nice argument”. Just one of the idiosyncrasies of the delay for before a post goes up. =)

MB, the Braves were also shopping Adam LaRoche. Does the fact that no trade has been completed mean that other teams obviously don’t think enough of him to offer anything of value. No. It simply means that the Braves haven’t found a package they deem worth parting with his services.

Now in the Marcus Giles situation… the Braves were apparently just looking to get something worth mentioning in return for him in the process of shedding his salary, but nobody would bite. Giles and Hudson are two very different scenarios. It was imminent that the Braves were going to shed Giles salary one way or the other. No one was willing to give up much for the opportunity to pay a struggling second-baseman 5 million dollars.

There are many teams that would love to have Tim Hudson right now at 10.66 million a season (avg.) over the next 3 years. That’s been proven by the kinds of contracts handed to guys like Padilla, Lilly, and Eaton. When a trade doesn’t happen, there’s only one thing we can know for certain… the team offering that player wasn’t offered enough to part with his services. That doesn’t mean other teams weren’t willing to offer anything of value, nor does it mean the Braves think Hudson will be the second coming of Christ in ’07.

My point was simply that if the Braves didn’t believe in Hudson at all, he’d already be gone. That’s all I’m saying.

By JCB

January 2, 2007 03:14 PM | Link to this

Efrim you said, and I quote “But I just think that the Phillies and Mets will both make the playoffs next year, leaving the Braves with a third place finish. Reasons why?? Tim Hudson and Mike Hampton. I just don’t see them winning a combined 30+ games”

My question to you then is this, do you really see Glavine and Hernandez winning 30+ games this year? If so, you are on some good drugs.

By KC

January 2, 2007 03:18 PM | Link to this

brian: I understand what you’re saying about Hudson and Hampton, but it’s a bit of a stretch to classify Smoltz or James as “ifs”.

If you’re going to do that, you could take any team and start pointing out “ifs”.

The Padres could have a good rotation IF Peavy can bounce back from a mediocre season, and if Young and Hensley don’t suffer sophomore slumps, and if Maddux can give them quality innings at his age.

The Marlins could have a good rotation IF Dontrelle Willis can be more consistent, and their young guys can continue their early success.

Of course anything can happen. We can’t predict the future. But Smoltz and James can not really be classified as “IFs”.

By David O'Brien

January 2, 2007 03:18 PM | Link to this

Harry, loved a few songs off that first Decemberists CD, Picaresque (or however it’s spelled). Good band.

My sister lives in Boulder (actually Lafayette, next to Boulder) and she and her husband are huge bluegrass fans who go to that festival and to Rockygrass every year. She said same thing about Telluride, that it’s an incredible festival.

Personally, I’d like to go to Coachella one year in California.

By berigan

January 2, 2007 03:25 PM | Link to this

DOB, as a long time Cards fan(Born and raised in St. Louis) thanks for the story on the salty tongued Mike Shannon! He’s been doing games for at least 30 years, and really amazed how he can turn that on and off!

By Greg in TN

January 2, 2007 03:26 PM | Link to this

Hello everyone…

Daybed, just to give you a little more background, on May 11, 1977, Ted gives Dave Bristol ten days off without pay and decides that he will take over as manager. He lost 2-1 to the Pirates in Pittsburgh and the next day NL President Chub Feeney and MLB Commissioner Bowie Kuhn kicked him out of the dugout due to a longstanding rule prohibiting managers from having a financial stake in their teams. I remember an interview one time with Phil Niekro, that night’s starting pitcher, who went up to Ted at the batting cage and asked where in the batting order he would be hitting. According to Phil, Ted responded “Where do you want to hit?” Vern Benson managed the team until Bristol returned. Oh, and Ted did wear a uniform (#27 to be specific).

I’ve followed the conversation in terms of Ted, Steinbrenner and others and they’re successes and failures. I think Ted finally saw the light and decided to begin putting more trust in his baseball folks once Bobby Cox returned to Atlanta after the 1985 season as GM. I think that’s when the tide started turning for the better. It still took several years and we had to endure some rather brutal teams, but when Bobby decided to fire Russ Nixon and take the field manager duties, he turned over a much stronger franchise to JS than what he inherited and JS took the franchise to the next level.

I think Steinbrenner finally figured that out himself, however I think that before too long, Torre will be out in NYC and the Boss will dig back in and micromanage Cashman to death. He can’t help himself. Although Jerry Jones has a better track record, I put him in the same boat.

One thing I forgot to mention in my remarks yesterday is the work Glenn Hubbard is doing with Kelly Johnson at 2B. Having played a little of both in my youth, there are lots of little things that is different at 2B if you’re used to playing SS. I think KJ should be able to adjust, especially with Hubbard working with him.

KC, count me as an optimist also. While we can’t go out and just sign a free agent or two to fix everything, I am happy to see what has happened since the last out of ‘06. I think Hampton will pitch fine in ‘07 and I think Hudson will pitch better. Smoltz will be Smoltz. I don’t think he’ll feel the pressure that he did last year to carry the starters on his shoulders. I think Chuck James will have a solid second season. And if we get to Disney and JS sees a need either at 2B or LF or in pitching, I think he goes out and works to address it.

By luke

January 2, 2007 03:31 PM | Link to this

David O’Brien

Any truth or credibility to the following 3-way trade:

o Braves send Adam LaRoche to the Pirates

o Pirates send Mike Gonazalez and Zach Duke to the Braves

o Braves send Zach Duke, Salty, and Escobar to the Devil Rays for Carl Crawford

Carl Crawford and Mike Gonzalez added to what we have already would make us a formidable opponent

This rumor overheard from an MLB scout at Twin Cities airport…

By David O'Brien

January 2, 2007 03:31 PM | Link to this

Fed Up, thanks for that reminder about the Springsteen song. I think he might have made minor tweaks to it, or maybe didn’t even do that, but it came out when it did, and he sort of associated with 9/11 or didn’t go out of his way to refute the association or whatever. Anyway, yes, you’re exactly right about it being about Asbury Park.

Kind of like how some associate “Born in the U.S.A.” with rah-rah nationalism, which it really isn’t about. I think the raw, acoustic versirn in the U.S.A.” , recast as more a blues number on one of his live albums, is much closer to the spirit of the song.

The Boss:

“Had a brother at Khe Sanh/Fighting off them Viet Cong

“They’re still there,/he’s all gone

He had a woman he loved in Saigon/I got a picture of him in her arms now…”

Spare, stark, genius. That’s Bruce.

By the way, good comparison of Seeger Sessions to The Basement Tapes. Never thought of that, but it works.

By KC

January 2, 2007 03:32 PM | Link to this

JCB

Agreed. I’ve said it numerous times lately, but again… If Wickman and Soriano had been in the pen on opening day last year, Atlanta would have won 90-plus games, guaranteed. And would be without Hampton and with a struggling Hudson.

The Braves have an excellent shot at winning 90-plus this year regardless of what happens with Hampton and Hudson. But if those 2 come through… the Braves could wind up comfortably taking the division. IF both Hampton and Huddy are healthy and sharp, the Mets and Phillies just don’t have anything to compete with that.

The Braves will have one of the best bullpens in the league this year. Believe it. And they’ve already proven that they have one of the best offenses. Lets see… great offense, a great bullpen, and at least a couple good starters… hmmm… wasn’t there a team that won a division with that formula recently? OH YEAH… the Mets. If Hudson and Hampton don’t come through, we’ll be left with the exact same formula the Mets used to win last year.

By DonCoburleone

January 2, 2007 03:37 PM | Link to this

I would feel a heck of a lot more comfortable going into next season with Kelly Johnson as our starting second baseman rather than Martin Prado… KJ’s swing is soooo pretty, and Prado just seems like nothing more than a good minor-leaguer… I hope Johnson can improve his defense enough to get that starting spot…

So DOB, I guess the LaRoche front has cooled down then???

By Amanda

January 2, 2007 03:41 PM | Link to this

Hoping that KJ can have a good year. Does he have a girlfriend? Can you do a interview with him some time soon.

By DonCoburleone

January 2, 2007 03:41 PM | Link to this

DOB said: “Personally, I’d like to go to Coachella one year in California.”

Why exactly would you want to go to Coachella DOB? Out here in California we’ve nicknamed it “Crotchella”. Not a very good/cool/pretty/weather tolerable place to be…

By Ray

January 2, 2007 03:42 PM | Link to this

KC, The reason why whip and even oba is a better measure is because if guys are not getting on base then they are not scoring. Brandon Webb had a GREAT whip and oba and was not that high in K’s. Plus I would rather have a guy that is having a 7-12 pitch inning than a guy that is having 16-22 pitch inning which is typical for your high strikeout pitchers. If you ask most scouts and pitching coaches, they look at a guy with a low whip and oba a little more so than ERA. Not saying its unimportant because of course it is. Bottom line is they are all somewhat related and these are just another reason why we all love baseball.

By Black Knight

January 2, 2007 03:43 PM | Link to this

DOB,

Have you heard of Edwin McCain? What do you think of him as a musician?

By David O'Brien

January 2, 2007 03:43 PM | Link to this

Laptop ate up part of my sentence, the part about the “acoustic version of Born in the U.S.A.”

LUKE, don’t know if there’s credibility to that report, but it looks way too good for Braves, way too bad for Pirates. Can’t imagine Braves getting Crawford AND Gonzalez and giving up only LaRoche, Salty and Escobar.

If they pull that off, it’d be the best trade of the winter for one team (the Braves).

I’ll try to check it out, but my initial reaction is, too good to be true for Braves.

By KC

January 2, 2007 03:52 PM | Link to this

LUKE: Be honest… did you make up that trade scenario??

By KC

January 2, 2007 03:55 PM | Link to this

Ray: Yes, I understand the logic there. But there are guys that pitch well with runners on base, and get the same results in terms of the number of runs they allow as another pitcher who allows fewer runners.

In the end, it’s allow about how many runs a pitcher allows to score.

By Daybed Wagmoe

January 2, 2007 03:56 PM | Link to this

DOB - thanks for the answer.

now for something extremely weird and coincidental: i put “born in the usa” on my ipod right as i opened this blog, and it was playing as i saw your comments on it. my choosing that song had nothing to do with reading your blog — i had no prior knowledge that you were writing about it. WEIRD.

By DonCoburleone

January 2, 2007 03:56 PM | Link to this

Definately sounds too good to be true for the Braves…

By Ray

January 2, 2007 03:58 PM | Link to this

Its only a rumor and not much of one as in credibility but WOW,, one can hope. Carl Crawford and Gonzo completely unreal. I personally like Kelly Johnson at 2nd over Prado as well. If KJ gets off to a decent start then he will have a very good year. Would not be shocked if Blanco gets put in the mix because of a very productive spring. KC, I do agree with you completely in regards to Hudson and Hampton. I think the health and the determination (focus) that those two have that they will perform especially Hudson like it was his walking year.

By AdirondackDave

January 2, 2007 04:09 PM | Link to this

Luke — Littlefield may not be the sharpest tack in the box but Gonzo and Duke straight up for LaRoche is quite a stretch.

By Greg in TN

January 2, 2007 04:13 PM | Link to this

Oops, in referring to Ted’s one day managerial experience in baseball, I should have said that he gave Dave Bristol ten days off with pay.

DOB, think you’re right as far as not overlooking the Rockies and about Arizona’s staff if and when they get Randy Johnson. Colorado looks like they have a solid lineup with Helton, Holliday and Atkins. I just wonder how much they’ll miss Jennings and how their pitching will fare. Another season of Brandon Webb and the potential addition of Randy Johnson makes the snakes a much more dangerous team out west.

By brian

January 2, 2007 04:15 PM | Link to this

KC - you can check my posts from last spring training if you want to see what I really think about Chuck James. I said then he was special and had nasty stuff and should be in the rotation. I believe I was shot down by Mr. DOB who said he would start in the minors or in the bullpen (always the realist DOB, but at least my faith was well placed). I love Smoltz as well as I dropped a bundle on autograph Smoltz items.

They still are ifs - strong ifs if you ask me and ifs I would want. James still does not have a full season in the majors, and Smoltz’s age and surgeries do make him an if whether we want to believe that or not.

Most teams do have a lot of “ifs” so it is not unique to the Braves. That is why JS is hopefully trying to better the team. It seems like the only IF that does not apply to the Braves is IF Andruw will leave the Braves when his contract is up

By Ron

January 2, 2007 04:20 PM | Link to this

Luke, No way the Braves will ever even sniff the likes of Zack Duke. No way that trade ever happens, wish it did though!

By MBATL

January 2, 2007 04:21 PM | Link to this

Littlefield has said (for whatever that’s worth) that he will NOT break up the Pirates young rotation. I doubt that rumor has any legs. I doubt the Pirates would give up Duke and Gonzalez for Laroche, and I doubt TB would trade Crawford for Duke, Escobar and Salty. Maybe Baldelli, but not Crawford.

KC… gotcha on the ‘delay’ thing. Man, I’m really excited about the Braves in ‘07, but find myself arguing against them because you’re so over-the-top. Keep it up, though, it’s fun.

By Ray

January 2, 2007 04:24 PM | Link to this

Apparently the D backs are going to have new uniforms and the Dodgers are going to have names on teh back of jerseys for the first time in quite a few years. DOB, you may or may not be able to confirm this but this is nothing more than an interesting tidbit. Talked to one of the uniform manufacturers several years ago and they said during the season when there is a trade, they are notified about 48 hours before it is released so the uniform can be made and ready for the player when he arrives to his new club. Like I said nothing more than an interesting tidbit and IF that is the case, how cool if you were at one of the manufacturers and knew about the trade a day or two before it was “released.” I guess we can only HOPE that Littlefield lost his mind and did that trade.

By KC

January 2, 2007 04:36 PM | Link to this

MBATL: In my 2:08pm post, I outlined exactly what I expect, what I think the odds are on Hudson/Hampton, etc. Please read that and tell me what exactly is over the top (link below).

http://www.ajc.com/blogs/content/shared-blogs/ajc/braves/entries/2006/12/31/reitsma_leaving.html#comment-906923

Don’t get me wrong, I’m not offended or upset in the slightest by your saying that… that’s fine, but I’m genuinely curious what it is I believe about this team that you find over the top.

By AdirondackDave

January 2, 2007 04:49 PM | Link to this

I’d be interested in knowing from Dave or anybody else about the player/agent relationship, terms, services provided, etc. It’s easy to see why an agent is valuable to a player through his arbitration years and especially at free agency, but not so clear during a players other years in the majors.

By TennesseePaul

January 2, 2007 04:53 PM | Link to this

KC: I know where you’re coming from on San Diego. I don’t hold it against anyone that Hensely didn’t pop into their head. But he was really good for what was pretty much his first season. Maddux should only help that situation. But I don’t think the Dodgers are going to be that great. They lost more than they gained it seems. They lost defense in the outfield and power in the line up when JD left. I know the oft-injured halfass isn’t a team player, but he makes an impact when he’s in there. They replaced him with Pierre. Pierre is a down-grade even to an injured Drew. I wouldn’t be surprised if the D-Backs make more of a run against the Padres than the Dodgers. They’re rotation has the potential to have 2 Cy Youngs in it if they get Randy. The Dodgers are loaded with back end starters and a potential DL trip from a back sliding half wit. Sorry, I just can’t buy into all the hype on Schmidt.

Schmidt, after 150 games was on par with Lily, Meche, and behind Marquis. Schmidt then put up about 3 good seasons, then started going back to where he was prior. He isn’t worth what he’s paid or the hype that he is given.

By Ray

January 2, 2007 05:05 PM | Link to this

In regards to the player/agent relationship. For contract work, the agent gets up to 4% that is a maximum set by MLB. Pretty standard for all sports. Then when it comes to the endorsements, the agent can get up to 20%, again pretty standard. Other services, pretty much whatever the player wants the agent to handle. Some you don’t see it as often any more but some still give “power of attorney” to the agent. Not a wise move. SO Boras on the Zito deal look at 4%. I know he got that in the AROD deal. Not bad. And the requirements from the governing bodies in the various sports are really no big deal. Fill out the application pay your $$ (filing fee) And go to your once a year seminar. Also quicker to get approved if you already have a client. Hope that helps Adir/dave

By brian

January 2, 2007 05:06 PM | Link to this

Luke- I think that would follow under DOB’s category is he doesn’t have time to follow up on every outlandish rumor that is out there. Too good to be true usually is. Man would that be nice though. Even better would be Duke plus Salty or Escobar for Baldelli.

Any chance JS drops Gonzalez from the discussion and tries to get Duke or Maholm. Or in the 3 way with the Yankees try to pry in a package to get Humberto Sanchez?

By TennesseePaul

January 2, 2007 05:21 PM | Link to this

Apparently the D backs are going to have new uniforms and the Dodgers are going to have names on teh back of jerseys for the first time in quite a few years

Dodgers had their names OFF the uniforms when McCourt bought the team. They are putting them back on now after a 3 year hiatus. There was much speculation that Trading DePot took them off because he was going to be butchering the entire orginization and didn’t want the fans to be constantly reminded of the turn-over rates. That and the initial fear that McCourts parking meters would require budget cuts, which resulted in removing the names so that when the Trading DePot started swinging the ax, the team wouldn’t have to spend as much on altering the uniforms. DePot worked very hard at fielding some truly terrible teams, but in the end he was rightly fired.
The Diamondback uni’s look much better than the purple and teal of yesteryear, but honestly, I’m sick of every team wearing red. I truly hope the Braves will move away from that home-alt-sunday-day-game red/orange uni they’ve sported the last 2 seasons. It looks bad. (Though not as bad as the Mets black and blue bruiser uni’s… how the hell did black get into the color scheme? I’m not a Met fan, but the Met colors are better when they are two tone and neither tone is Yankee Black). And that new logo they put with the Braves Orange Jersey, the A with a tomahawk through it, reminds me of when Disney owned the Angles and put the stupid wing on the logo. These are ideas I’d expect from a middle school home-ec class.

By AdirondackDave

January 2, 2007 05:25 PM | Link to this

Thanks, Ray. I appreciate that. No aspirations myself, I’m an old geezer. As they say, “enquiring minds want to know.”

By Ron

January 2, 2007 05:28 PM | Link to this

MBATL, dude if Duke, Escobar, Salty were in a deal for Crawford the Rays would accept. Duke had his sophomore slump, and will be their number 2 starter behind Kazmir, WOW two great young Leftys gotta love that, and Salty will be their future 1B or Catcher. And Escobar could be their future SS or if he has a very good year in the Minors they might can get a good young Pitcher for him. It favors everybody except the Pirates, so it wont happen. The D-Rays would then be able to keep Baldelli, and he would then be their leadoff man.

By Ron

January 2, 2007 05:30 PM | Link to this

Luke, how old is that Rumor, when is the first time you heard that rumor?

By TLJ

January 2, 2007 05:39 PM | Link to this

NYM,

Just saw your post about Wickman being 38 and overweight. Have you taken a look at your team lately??? Your # 1 and # 2 starter are both 40, Pedro if he returns will be 35 and Wagner is 35. Your starting catcher is 35, 1b 35, 2b 37, lf 40, cf 30 and rf 33. Your # 1 sub is 48. Your whole 40 man roster only has a few players under 30.

Does age only matter when it is a brave player?

Wickman maybe over weight but the dudes mentioned are all ugly.

By MBATL

January 2, 2007 05:47 PM | Link to this

Ron, I don’t agree. I don’t think Escobar is so well viewed around the league. And the Rays are demanding “impact pitching” for Baldelli… what more do that want for Crawford?

But, probably isn’t worth arguing over, cause I don’t think the Pirates are trading Duke and Gonzalez for Adam.

By Lew

January 2, 2007 05:48 PM | Link to this

If we got Duke and Gonzalez and kept them both, we could laugh at the rest of the division-this year and several more to come.

By MBATL

January 2, 2007 05:50 PM | Link to this

KC, let’s start with Davies. He’s got a 6.15 era as a starter over 2 years (and plus-8 last year), but you’ve put him at 4.33. Why?

You’ve got Hudson at 3.14, which he hasn’t done since ‘03, and he was at 4.86 last year; I can see knocking off a few tenths on faith, but a run and three quarters?

Hampton, you predict a 2.90 second half. He posted a 2.90 in ‘99, but his career no. is 3.98 (granted, a couple of years at Coors boosted that number, but still, that’s as well as he’s ever pitched).

And Smoltz pitched his heart out to post a 3.49, but you’ve bumped him down to 3.21.

James - I’d agree with that prediction.

I suspect that SOME of these guys will meet your expectations; but others will struggle or get hurt and be replaced by Villarreal (whom I like), Cormier, Travis Smith, etc. I don’t think our starting rotation will go 76-41 with a 3.65 as you suggest - hope so, but I doubt it.

Our starters posted a 4.71 era last year. The best in the league, San Diego, posted a 4.10. If we can cut half a run, we’ll be in good shape with an improved bullpen and a good offense.

By TLJ

January 2, 2007 05:50 PM | Link to this

Efrim, there you go again making statements that no one really posted. To my knowledge no brave from this blog has stated the braves would be in the world series. What has been posted is the braves will be better this year. The pitching should be better due to Hampton returning, James being a member of the rotation all season, adding Wickman and Soraino to the bullpen. The offense should be about the same. Hopefully, this will be enough to challenge for the division championship.

Please read this carefully I am not saying the braves are going to the WS but they should be able to challenge for the division title and who knows what may happen after that.

By AdirondackDave

January 2, 2007 05:53 PM | Link to this

Not that it’s going to happen for 150 games, but isn’t the outfield of Andruw, Francoeur, and Langerhans probably the BEST DEFENSIVE unit of all time? I’ve been watching since the days of Joe D. and can’t think of one better. Al Kaline was also in some great outfields with Mickey Stanley but there was usually one weak link.

By Mrs. Stinky

January 2, 2007 05:56 PM | Link to this

Has anybody heard from that deadbeat so-called husband of mine??…p.s.—Hi Jackass!!!…xoxoxoxoxo

By TennesseePaul

January 2, 2007 06:01 PM | Link to this

Wickman maybe over weight but the dudes mentioned are all ugly.

LOL!

Best thing I read all day!

By Efrim D

January 2, 2007 06:05 PM | Link to this

Sorry guys, I thought KC said they would be in the World series. I guess I was wrong.

By Drummerdad

January 2, 2007 06:08 PM | Link to this

DOB, I liked your idea about Ron Villone. Keep LaRoche and the chemistry that’s developed. Pick up an effective lefty. Obviously the Pirates aren’t going to part with Gonzales on the terms Schuerholz wants. They’re looking at the team they’ve got and thinking that they’ll be in a good position to compete for the first time in a while. And, like the Braves, why do anything that would hinder that goal?

This thing with 2nd base intrigues me a bit. Nick Green played well when he filled in for Marcus a few years back. Hometown guy. He’s a minor league free agent in the Yankees system now. In hindsight, wouldn’t he be as strong a pickup as Woodward? What about Miguel Cairo? Or does that get to be a money issue?

By TLJ

January 2, 2007 06:13 PM | Link to this

I don’t think that trade will ever take place but it sure would have the experts talking.

By MEB

January 2, 2007 06:19 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul… I agree with you about the Diamondbacks new uniforms. Way too much red throughout baseball. Their new uni’s look very similar to the Nationals, which I think are the worst in baseball. As for the Braves I would prefer the blue uniforms they sport during warm-ups and spring training. As for the alternate caps I really like the A with the tomahawk so much I wear one all the time.

By Jared

January 2, 2007 06:27 PM | Link to this

“This rumor overheard from an MLB scout at Twin Cities airport…”

Yeah right. There is zero chance of that happening. The Pirates wouldn’t give the Braves Paul Malholm with Mike Gonzalez for LaRoche, now they’re going to throw in Duke?

That “rumor” is a complete load.

By journalist jimmy smith

January 2, 2007 06:34 PM | Link to this

gasper whale. R.I.P. bad toes.

By The Grinch

January 2, 2007 06:38 PM | Link to this

Efrim, though in general I agree with KC, I do agree his predictions for our starter’s seasons next year are a bit overly optomistic. Smoltz’ ERA may indeed come down because of the improved bullpen. He came out too often in the 8th or 9th last year when he was gassed ‘cause he didn’t want to turn the ball over to Sosa, Reitsma or Remmy (who the hell would?); he won’t have to do that this year. 18 wins aren’t out of the question. James should win 15 if not injured. Hampton may very well only win 12-14 games (though 15 isn’t out of the question), but in the second half he’ll be as good as anyone and next year even better; it’s a matter of shaking the rust off. when he’s healthy and not in Colorado he’s one of the best pitchers in the game and a hell of a competitor. Hudson, even with an improved bullpen, isn’t likely to do a heckuva lot better than last year IMO. MAYBE 14 wins and a 4.00. This isn’t based on “well-researched trends,” but rather on my having watched the dude since we got him. He just ain’t that great. He’s a 4th starter who’s good for 5 innings (with an occasional quality start, just enough to make you confused and angry). Lew, you tossed this stat out earlier so back me up: Cormier has something like a 2.26 ERA when allowed to pitch over 5 innings. This may get me crucified here, but I honestly don’t think we’d be any worse off putting Villareal and Cormier in the 4 and 5 slot and moving Hudson to long relief. I’m not saying it would be BETTER, and I know the respective salaries don’t justify it, I’m just saying the three are about interchangeable production wise when it comes right down to it. Let’s review this at this time next year and see if I’m off my rocker or not. Betcha they’re closer than you think.

By Huh?

January 2, 2007 06:41 PM | Link to this

Has anyone heard of the “Money toe”?

By DonCoburleone

January 2, 2007 06:45 PM | Link to this

MBATL, you should be well aware by now that KC is the eternal optimist. I mean, we are reasonable people, but KC throws reason in the toilet with his predictions…

By Jared

January 2, 2007 06:50 PM | Link to this

Bucco Blog (google it) says the Braves-Pirates-Angels are close to some three-way trade. I know the site is untrustworthy, but it’s still interesting. Doesn’t say exactly what the trade is, except the Pirates get Kotchman, so I would guess:

Braves get: Chrone Figgins, Mike Gonzalez Pirates get: Casey Kotchman Angels get: Adam LaRoche

By Ron

January 2, 2007 06:50 PM | Link to this

MBATL, You are right it is not worth arguing because there is no chance that the Pirates trade both Duke and Gonzalez for LaRoche, but the trade is interesting for the Braves and D-Rays. Let me just say one thing about Duke, I think you undervalue him, In three years from now he will be top 10 in Baseball Pitchers. Maybe better than that, so if they could get Duke they would trade Crawford in a hurry, Duke is alot better than James, hate to say that but it is true. I admit Littlefield is not a great GM, but lookin at that really good group of young Pitchers he has, changes my mind a little bit about him, but only if they could produce good young players at other positions, that might be a special team in the Future.

By Ron

January 2, 2007 07:02 PM | Link to this

Since we are talkin about Crazy trades, I heard this one in the Bathroom at the Winter Meetings!(HAHAHA) The Braves Trade Andruw to Texas for McCarthy, Kinsler, and Texiera, The Braves then trade Tex, and Davies to the Angels for Santana, Figgins, and Kotchman. The Braves then Trade LaRoche to the Orioles for Ray, and Penn. Then the Braves trade Penn, Salty, Escobar, Kotchman, Larew, and Devine for Baldelli or Crawford! Wow!!!! Heard that Rumor from Reliable Baseball people talkin about that while sitting on the toilet for about 15 minutes!

By DonCoburleone

January 2, 2007 07:03 PM | Link to this

Let’s just all thank God and remember the fact that Reitsma is gone!!!

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

January 2, 2007 07:05 PM | Link to this

Has anyone noticed that Luke has not reappeared since he dropped the bomb of this rumor? Luke, if that is indeed your real name (lol), where did you hear this from? Did you hear it personally? Did you read it somewhere? I have checked all of my normal rumor sites and nothing has been posted about this. While I would love for this deal to happen, Littlefield couldn’t possibly be that stupid. Could he? The Braves and Rays would come out of this smelling like a rose. The only way I would see a deal like this happening is if the Braves threw in Davies or Harrison.

By Ron

January 2, 2007 07:07 PM | Link to this

Jared, now if the Braves could get both Gonzalez and Figgins for LaRoche, damn great trade for Atlanta, too good to be true though. The Braves would kill two birds with one stone. WOW. But doubt that will Happen Though!!!

By The Grinch

January 2, 2007 07:12 PM | Link to this

Amen to that, DonC; that’s worth a New Year’s champagne toast.

By Robert

January 2, 2007 07:15 PM | Link to this

“Agent Mike Paolercio said six teams have made “legitimate offers” for Reitsma”

Poor Reitsma - The guy had tough times in Atlanta, but you have to remember that he was misused by his dipstick manager and also hurt for a significant amount of time

That said, I cant help but believe that Atlanta made him a “legitimate offer”, along the lines of “Leave quietly and we wont call security and wont charge you for your uniform”

I see we are also back to fantasizing about ridiculous trades that make no sense to anyone but the home team

Let’s talk football for just a moment.

Having just moved to Oklahoma, I can tell y’all that folks out here arent very fond of or impressed by SEC fdootball. The funny thing about is they arent “homering it” crowing about the Big 12, but rather they seem to think the Big 10 is god’s gift.

For what it’s worth, I’ve been trying to “learn ‘em”

Says here Florida not nonly BEATS Ohio State, but that they do it with relative ease

Florida 31 Ohio State 14

By KC

January 2, 2007 07:17 PM | Link to this

MBATL: Okay, first of all… I can’t make any passionate defense for all of those statistical predictions, because I just threw those out there for fun. If you want to know the things that I will seriously predict, argue for, and stand by… re-read my 2:08 post.

I don’t think any of those statistical predictions I threw out there are far fetched, but if I had to bet money, I would certainly be much more conservative on a couple of those predictions. In fact I have a friendly wager with GRINCH that Hudson’s ERA will be 3.75 or lower. I feel pretty good about my chance on that. But I wouldn’t bet a dime on Hudson finishing the year with a 3.14 ERA, because as I mentioned in my 2:08 post, I think there’s only slightly better than a 50/50 chance that he will return to his old Oakland form this season. So I cannot defend that. I was making predictions for fun, and decide to go out on a limb on that one.

As for Davies… I have no real reason to predict Davies at 4.33, except that he’s shown flashed of brilliance, and that the Braves (an organization traditionally better than average at judging young pitchers) continue to put faith in him, and seem to think he’ll be a quality starter at some point. Based on that, and that alone, I put Davies down for a 4.33. But I can’t and won’t defend that.

Now… there are a couple of those statistical predictions that I will seriously defend. First of all, yes… Smoltz had an ERA of 3.49, and I’ve bumped him down to 3.21. I did that for 2 reasons, and they both have to do with the bullpen:

First… before last season began, Smoltz said he was going to try to pitch fewer innings than the previous season, so he could have something left in the tank later in the year. Instead, with the condition of the bullpen, he actually threw more innings last year than in 05’, and started to wear down a bit late in the season.

Second, the bullpen affects starter’s ERAs by what they do with inherited runners. I’m pretty confident that the bullpen this year will do a better job with in inherited runners than last year’s pen.

With a better bullpen last year, I think Smoltz’s ERA would have been lower. That’s why I projected a lower ERA from Smoltz

Mike Hampton:

After all-star break in 2003: 9-3, 2.91 ERA

After all-star break in 2004: 9-1, 3.13 ERA

Also worth noting… from the all-start break in 04’ until he went on the DL in 05’: 13-2, 2.59 ERA

I don’t think a 2.90 second half ERA is unreasonable far fetched to expect from Hampton if he’s healthy and sharp.

By KC

January 2, 2007 07:23 PM | Link to this

DonCoburleone:

Please see my last post regarding the statistical predictions I made earlier. I threw those out there for fun. I will stand by my predictions for James, Smoltz, and Hampton… but not for Hudson (I think there’s only a 50/50 chance of my prediction on that being close to accurate). And I’m not really sure at all what to expect out of Davies.

GRINCH: Same thing man… read my last post. I agree that my prediction for Hudson, and possibly for Davies is definitely way on the optimistic side.

But hey… if I think there’s a 50/50 chance, and you ask me to guess one way or the other… why not go ahead and guess the better half?

By MBATL

January 2, 2007 07:30 PM | Link to this

KC, you’ve earned a spot on my debate team! Again, good responses. I don’t quite buy all of it, but you make your arguments pretty well.

Go Braves!

By brian

January 2, 2007 07:37 PM | Link to this

Len Barker autograph ball for sale on ebay 45 minutes left everybody. Speaking of one of the most awful trades. Brett Butler would have been nice to have for a while (as would have Brooks Jacoby)

By the way a Dan Kolb ball was for sale last week - big surprise, no bids

By NYM

January 2, 2007 07:39 PM | Link to this

TLJ, my point about Wickmans weight/age was that the two are good together. Yes, the Mets have players up in age too but you have to admit they are in better shape than Wickman. As far as looks go you’ll have to refer to GQ magazine or something for clarification on looks.

By NYM

January 2, 2007 07:48 PM | Link to this

I meant “Not Good” together…ooops

By David O'Brien

January 2, 2007 07:59 PM | Link to this

Hey, NYM worry about your own decrepit veterans. Leave the “stocky” Wick alone. Besides, I guarantee he’d kick anyone’s tail on the Mets.

(OK, just having some fun here. Relax…. But it’s true. Dude looks and acts like a dockworker, not a millionaire athlete.)

By Choppinmama

January 2, 2007 08:01 PM | Link to this

DOB:

I am so looking forward to a visit to Disney’s Dark Star again this spring. There’s nothing like walking into the stadium and seeing ALL of those Braves boys out there on the field in the Florida sunshine, even the guys with the tackle and guard numbers on their jerseys. “Hope springs eternal” has never been so true and heartfelt as in that moment for this Braves fan. It’s a new season, planning on #15 in 16.

How could LaRoche not be aware of his shaky status there for a couple of days? Must have been a really bad case of buck fever!

By Metropolitan Man

January 2, 2007 08:12 PM | Link to this

KC Read your “Formula post” about the braves winning the division with the same weapons the METs had last year and Hamton AND Hudson can have off years. The only problem with that is last year the braves would average 8-10 runs for a week and then score a total of 8 for a week. Even though the METS werent #1 in offense, they scored when they had to consistently. Of course leading the league in 1 run games didnt hurt, but the consistentsy was there even when the team struggled for runs. (manufactuing with an actuall leadoff guy). But I would love to see Hanpton and Hudson have an offseason just to prove your point, that would be nice.

By Robert

January 2, 2007 09:12 PM | Link to this

I have an idea

Let’s selectively put together the best halves any of the Braves have ever had and use those splits to make our projections for next year

And let’s not forget to include having a couple of teams trade us their best cheap stars for some of the guys who do nothing for us. (you know, Davies and Salty for Crawford, Zach Duke for Escobar, Pujols for Langerhans and Cox, stuff like that)

This is the way I did my own projections back in 7th grade

Heck, looks like the Braves win 140 some games

(and then Cox will take care of making sure they STILL dont win the World Series)

By MBATL

January 2, 2007 09:31 PM | Link to this

Just as a change of subject: thinking about ownership…

Blank bought the Falcons and got personally involved… but that has been pretty much exposed as a huge mistake and I think he’ll have a hard time hiring a quality head coach because personalities have become such a huge part of the job;

The Spirit, a bunch of ‘guys like us’ (except that they had a few million dollars to spend) bought the Hawks and Thrashers, and the Hawks are in worse shape than ever (which seems impossible). The Thrashers are doing well, thanks mainly to Hossa, whom we got in a desperation attempt to dump Heatly, but, whatever, I don’t know nothin’ bout hockey).

Gotta be careful about these pleas for private ownership. It’s worked for Cuban and the Mavs (to some extent), but not in some other cases.

By ernesto

January 2, 2007 09:38 PM | Link to this

I love it when people get on and write - “hey why do you all want to talk stupid trades that aren’t going to happen?” or whatever it is that’s up there blog hole, but looke There are people here hungry for baseball. They miss baseball. You’re on a baseball blog in January. YOu miss baseball. Be good with it. Enjoy.

By Lew

January 2, 2007 09:43 PM | Link to this

Grinch-Cormier had a 2.82 ERA when pitching over 51/3 innings, which he did about a dozen times. Villarreal has a 1.54 ERA and only given up runs in one of twelve outings in winter ball in Mexico at last report. It’s basically immaterial if Davies is ready or not. We have starters. JS has even talked about the possibility of Soriano starting in the future, though probably after Smoltz retires, I would imagine. Matt Harrison may well be ready bu July or August. He’s a LHP with good control and a strikeout to walk ratio of over two to one. We have pitching. Don’t the Mets wish they did?

By ILL-logical

January 2, 2007 09:58 PM | Link to this

Mora’s gone, just Billy Knight and John S to go.

Folks, there is no “budget” for the Braves: Time Warner just said you can’t continue to run $20 million + losses every year anymore. JS just cut back on players and tricked the media into saying that the goal was to win the division.Not cool.

By Jared

January 2, 2007 10:47 PM | Link to this

More from Bucco Blog:

“The latest I heard during was after Christmas and that was Littlefield was trying all he could to pry LaRoche away from the Braves without having to give up starting pitching with Gonzo. I’ve never heard Duffy’s name except in the papers. As for the ‘either they do or they don’t’ post, I’m hearing the Barves/Angels/and Pirates have been talking since the winter meetings about a Jones to the Angels deal that could trigger us getting a corner 1B. But again, the holdup seems to be Littlefield as he refuses to part with starting pitching for LaRoche. I suppose DL would allow Maholm to fly off the shelf with Gonzo for Kotchman instead but I think the Braves want to keep him. There is also another rumor out there that Will Carroll has been banging around that might get us Ryan Church for a song and dance but I think Littlefield is holding on waiting to see if he can cash in on the Braves/Angels deal instead of taking the lessor chip. That’s what I’m hearing among some other less credible rumors. There is a lot of chatter that a very big trade is going to be pulled off in the next couple of days and most think it is Jones so we’ll see.”

I highly doubt it, but I’ll be happy if the Braves get Mike Gonzalez and someone else that is good.

Barring a trade or injury, Davies will and should be the fifth starter. Cormier’s stats when he has pitched a number of innings are worthless. If something happens, Matt Harrison should step in, not Villarreal or Cormier.

By Ron

January 2, 2007 11:16 PM | Link to this

Jared, You actually want Ryan Church, he reminds me of Ryan Langerhans, but he has a little more power that Langerhans, but Langerhans is a better defensive player, not much difference between them. I looked on Bucco Blog and did not see anything about the Angels involved lately. I have not heard anything about Andruw being traded in a while, Carrol is the only source that I have heard that from, So I doubt that Andruw will be traded, at least for now. If Andruw was on the verge of being traded then everybody would be talkin about it, Just like the Randy Johnson trade rumors.

By coloradobravesfan

January 2, 2007 11:21 PM | Link to this

Was reading some interesting stuff over on the bucco blog to see what the rumors were over there. Thought this was interesting about how the guy over there thinks the young pitchers are over worked. Chone Smith recently penned an article on the various pitching projection systems used in 2006 and found ZIPS was the best, albeit it was worthless too with an r-value of just .459.

I did pretty good projecting Maholm and Duke last year - all things considered. And after researching, evaluating, and making some hard decisions on these two pitchers possible projections for 2007, I’ve come to the conclusion that there could be a bumpy road ahead.

I went back to the 1871 - 2006 database and evaluated third year baselines to get forecasts and here is what I came up with for Maholm and Duke:

Duke Maholm projection 4.43 5.19

Duke, unfortunately, could even be worse. The reason I say that is because Duke had 44 more innings of work between 2004 and 2005 and then in 2006 he was plus yet another 23 innings. Pitchers in the 1871 - 2006 database with at least 60 and less than 80 plus innings over their previous three years of work tanked considerably in their third year (+1.03 ERA over their 2cd year), but I gave him some benefit of doubt.

Maholm is even worse off.. he is plus 116 innings over the last three and 22.6% of the rookie pitchers who experienced 110 - 130 plus innings over their last three years ended up on the DL in their third year and saw a significant rise to their ERA (+2.21 ERA).

Those are not good signs.

Snell is fairly stable the last three, albeit he was plus 28 in 2006, which is high but not so high one has to start worrying. But if Ian heads toward the 210 innings range in 2007, he’ll be plus another 24 which will certainly be a worry in 2008 - if not late 2007.

Gorzelanny was plus 118 innings in one year - 2003 and that could be why he was seeing a barking elbow in 2006. His risk of injury is extremely high in 2007, especially since he was plus 26 innings from 2005 to 2006. There is no possible way Gorzy will be able to toss 200 innings in 2007 or he faces a significant risk of injury.. if not in 2007, certainly in 2008.

By Efrim D

January 2, 2007 11:32 PM | Link to this

Interesting article on Foxsports.com about the free agent class of next offseason. Many replacements for Andruw Jones, but none as good. I hope the Braves have a backup plan if they trade Laroche. Who is going to bat clean up when Andruw leaves??? The starting pitching market is okay. Nothing grabs my attention and nothing makes sense for the Braves. Linebrink is a free agent, Francisco Cordero is a free agent.

If we get Figgins and Mike Gonzalez for Laroche, I would have to call that a victory for the Braves. Improve the pitching, as well as acquire a lead off hitter. I just hope Thorman can handle the load at 1st base. Signing Craig Wilson to platoon with him wouldn’t be a bad idea. Here is the link:

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/6327822

By Zac

January 3, 2007 12:22 AM | Link to this

Hey efrim, why do you keep posting here. Seriously, do you smoke crack? Everything you say is so compound failure I am blaming my masturbation on killing sperm that might impregnate your female kin.

By mr baseball

January 3, 2007 12:27 AM | Link to this

For all the talk about a LaRoche-Gonzalez trade, it doesn’t make a huge amount of sense from either viewpoint, especially the Braves. The Pirates ostensibly would replace Gonzalez with either Torres or Capps, which would clearly weaken them both in the closer and setup areas. LaRoche would be a big boost to their offense, but he might not offset the damage to the bullpen.

If the Braves were going to put Gonzalez in the closer role, it might make sense from their vantage point, but he’s projected as a 7th or 8th inning reliever, which in no way, shape or form is worth a potential 40 HR hitter. Thorman could be another Klesko. but he could just as easily be the next Brad Komminsk. It’s a risk not worth taking.

Trades that clearly weaken a team in one area while strengthening another don’t make sense. Here’s an idea that might benefit both the Braves & Pirates. Thorman to Pgh for either Marte or Grabow. If Thorman turns out to be a legit power-hitting 1B, the Pirates are happy and it’s no great loss to the Braves, who already have one of their own. If not, all the Pirates have given up is a decent LH reliever, which they would still have.

The Braves would be getting a serviceable 2nd lefty in the bullpen, which will come in very handy against the teams with heavy LH hitting lineups. Gonzalez is clearly better than either of the other 2, but the Braves won’t be creating a potential huge hole in the lineup.

It may not be as dramatic, but that trade makes a lot more sense than dealing LaRoche. The Braves could throw in a young infielder, which they have plenty of, if needed to sweeten the deal.

Since music is a popular topic here, what kind of a city are us Atlantans living in where you are more likely to hear Little Feat over the sound system at Longhorns than on an Atl radio station?

By David O'Brien

January 3, 2007 01:16 AM | Link to this

Mr Baseball, I like your thinking. And you’re right _ a lot of folks don’t seem to understand that strengthening the team in one area while weakening it in another usually doesn’t make a lot of sense, unless you have an absolute overabundance of that strength (and as good as the raw numbers, the season totals, were for the Braves offense last season, let’s be honest _ it was still a streaky unit. Subtract Giles from that and add no one of significance, and can you really afford to also subtract LaRoche? not without adding another key bat somewhere else, I’d suggest, and two big trades at this point in the offseason seems highly unlikely).

(wow that was a lot of words between parentheses)

The make-a-trade-just-because-we’re-tired-of-talking-about-trades approach isn’t exactly a sound way to construct a team.

As for your music point, so true. Radio is bad and getting worse here, like in most markets.

But how can such a major city, in the heart of a state that’s been so incredibly rich in great musical talent, people born or raised here, or who at least spent formative years here, from Ray Charles to James Brown, Allman Brothers to R.E.M., Little Richard to Isaac Hayes, Shawn Mullins to Jack Logan, Otis Redding to Curtis Mayfield, Georgia Satellites to Drivin’ & Cryin’, Chet Atkins to Vic Chesnutt, Guadalcanal Diary to Drive-By Truckers, and on and and on … how can we not have a slew of great, eclectic stations, or at least a few? OK, one?

I’d kill to have enough money to own a non-commercial station and be able to program the music, with no rules except the music must be good. Where’s a trust fund when you need one?

By David O'Brien

January 3, 2007 01:25 AM | Link to this

to clary, by overabundance of that strength, I was talking about the area of the team that you’re weakening in order to strengthen elsewhere, if that makes sense. in this case, the strength being offense, the area you’d be weakening in order to strength the bullpen. ok, it’s late. no one’s here anyway. later.

By Troy

January 3, 2007 08:54 AM | Link to this

Mr. Baseball- I agree with you, I like Gonzalez but I think giving up LaRoche for him would be a mistake. I really like your proposed trade, of Thorman for a different LH reliever. As it stands right
adding one more decent veteran arm to the pen would really help round out the team. Plus right now Thorman really doesn’t have a spot to play, I doubt he could be an everyday LF, and it would be safe to say that he wouldn’t likely outperform Laroche especially when you consider their defense. Trading Thorman doesn’t sound like much but it could add a nice piece to help make the Braves a more complete club.

By The Grinch

January 3, 2007 09:01 AM | Link to this

Morning, all. So, now statistics are a worthless way to evaluate a pitcher. Hmm. That’s a new one. So what basis should we use to evaluate them from now on, facial hair? That explains why Eck and Rollie Fingers are in the hall of fame, not their physical abilities or performance.

DOB, while I don’t necc. agree with your assessment of homegrown musical talent (I think REM is perhaps…no, definitely the single most overrated band in the history of recorded music and I’d rather have a 200 pound spanish chick in wooden clogs dance flamenco on my ‘nads for two straight hours than listen to Drivin’ n’ cryin’), I do agree Atlanta has never had a decent radio station and I can’t figure out why. I’ve spent a good bit of time travelling all over this country by car/truck and just about EVERY town with more than 5,000 people in it has at least one if not more station(s) that put any of ours to shame. That doesn’t make sense for the capital of the south. Got to go get some work done; maybe Wisenhunt will be the Falcons new coach by the time I’m finished.

By KC

January 3, 2007 09:04 AM | Link to this

Okay MetroMan, find some statistical truth for you assertion that the Mets were so much more consistent (offensively) than the Braves, and get back to me. Frankly, I don’t believe that’s true. But if you can prove what your saying in any way, I’m open to hearing it.

By KC

January 3, 2007 09:10 AM | Link to this

Metro Man: The Braves finished ahead of the Mets in runs, batting avg., OBP, OPS, slugging%, hits, and homeruns.

Please don’t try to spin this to make it appear as though New York was the better offensive team. They weren’t. Now I grant you, there was not a wide gap between these two teams offensively, and there won’t be this year either. But trying to spin last season so the Mets come out on top offensively… it just doesn’t hold water.

By KC

January 3, 2007 09:18 AM | Link to this

REM: Is by far the most amazing band in the history of the universe!!! Amazing, not because of their talent, but simply because they actually still had a career after Happy Shiny People Holding Hands. Any band that can release a song like that and still be taken somewhat seriously deserves the Bullet Dodger of the Century award.

By KC

January 3, 2007 09:40 AM | Link to this

RUNS SCORED BY MONTH (league rank):

APR: Braves-115 (9) / Mets-120 (8)

MAY: Braves-169 (1) / Mets-137 (10)

JUN: Braves-94 (16) / Mets-152 (1)

JUL: Braves-171 (1) / Mets-157 (2)

AUG: Braves-149 (2) / Mets-148 (3)

SEP: Braves-148 (4) / Mets-114 (14)

If you want to find inconsistency in the Braves season offensively, it’s pretty obvious where it was… June. The month that cost Atlanta their season. They finished dead last in the league in offense that month.

Both the Mets and the Braves got off to bit of a slow start with the bats… finishing 8th and 9th respectively in runs scored in April. After that, they both had one month each in which they finished at or near the bottom of the league, and in the other 4 months… both scored a lot of runs and did it consistently.

By Carroll

January 3, 2007 09:46 AM | Link to this

Grinch: I used to think the same thing about the Atl radio stations, but after spending a few years in Jacksonville and Tallahassee, 99x now seems like gold. Also, the sports talk radio in Atl kicks arse (i.e. Buck-n-Kinkaid)!!! Downb here all the EVER talk about is the stupid Jags and Gators.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

January 3, 2007 09:50 AM | Link to this

I’d like to thank KC for the “Bullet Dodger” reference, and I’d like to thank Grinch for the 200 lb. flamenco dancer desrciption. I needed a good laugh this morning, and now I’ve had two of them.

By Lew

January 3, 2007 09:52 AM | Link to this

Good Morning All-For what it’s worth-I score ALL the Braves games. I just went over the entire season and here’s what I found concerning the KC/Metro Dude arguement. The Braves scored 3 runs or less 59 times in 06, winning 17 of those games. On the other hand, they lost 41 games in which they scored 4 or more runs. Make of this what you will. I see it as a team with a really lousy bullpen losing a lot of games, much more than I see a streaky team, hitting wise. Of those 41 games scoring 4 or more and losing, if the Braves could have won half of those games (not a stretch with a good pen), their record would have been 99-63. Does this change the outcome of the season at all? Rhetorical question, y’all. Go eat your grits.

By Lew

January 3, 2007 10:00 AM | Link to this

Now Grinch-REM isn’t that bad and Pete Buck is a good Dude. Drivin and Cryin is pretty decent when they avoid country. Few people realize that the band Kansas actually lived in Atlanta for a number of years in the 70’s and 80’s.

By NYM

January 3, 2007 10:03 AM | Link to this

I think any set of stats in a vacuume can be over estimated. There have been many teams that have had good offensive season and not made the playoffs. How many hits/RBI are game clutch? How many one run games? I think you get my point.

By 3trees

January 3, 2007 10:07 AM | Link to this

mr baseball - good words. I think subtracting LaRoche is gonna hurt the O too much (he’ll still struggle at times with that loopy swing). I like Thorman too, but still much to be proved there. I’m kinda warming to the KJ/Prado 2B thing. I thought that, while no offensive dynamo, Prado brought some spark and KJ, if adequate defensively, brings that patient approach and some pop. Maybe a good “ying/yang” thing there. I’m excited to see how Boyer comes back. When he was healthy, he was one of the few guys out of the BP that seemed to come in with a F@#K you attitude towards batters. Jeez, they report in a little over a month and a half!

Springsteen - Oh man, it took me a while, but once I saw the show (‘78 in St.Pete auditorium), I was hooked. From his early florid and dense word stuff (Greetings…) to the the neo-broadway stuff (BTR/The Wild, the Innocent…), to the bare boned grit of the middle years (The River). He’s just a brilliant story teller and scene painter. Performer? Never seen better. BTW - my fav “off” record, Tunnel of Love. Had a hit off it, but never hear it talked about much. Never warmed up to The Rising.

DOB - gotta friend here at work who went to both Widespread Panic shows and he said they were excellent and that Derek Trucks sat in one night. He also said there were “some messed up folks there”.

Happy new year to all - Go Braves

By Lew

January 3, 2007 10:16 AM | Link to this

NYM-You’re right, as far as that goes. Look at the stats I just posted and see what your evaluation is. I see them indicating that if the Braves scored 3 or less runs, they were as likely to lose as when they scored 4 or more. This indicates pitching difficulties to me, rather than the streakiness asserted by Metro Dude.

By Jeff R

January 3, 2007 10:29 AM | Link to this

NYM is right…it’s about cluth hitting, solid pitching and defense. The Braves teams way back in the 70s were generally one of the top offensive teams (thanks to Aaron, Evans, D. Johnson, Carty, Garr, Murphy and the like). As I recall, only one of those squads cracked .500, and that was the ‘74 team. And that team did it with pitching.

By NYM

January 3, 2007 10:34 AM | Link to this

Nice work on those stats Lew. I’ve heard Sports analyst say that Baseball is not as much a “Team” sport like Basketball or Football. I think that’s totaly false. So many stats and success in baseball are dependent on other parts doing their jobs.

By Lew

January 3, 2007 10:38 AM | Link to this

Springsteen was great until Born In The USA made him a mainstream fat cat. He lost his roots after that. He no longer had that working Man’s edge. Multi billions of dollars does that-at least so I’m told. It’s kind of like Oprah pretending she’s a normal hack. A billion bucks kind of negates normalcy.

By David O'Brien

January 3, 2007 10:55 AM | Link to this

Carroll to say Atlanta radio is better than Jacksonville … well, that’s a back-handed compliment, at best.

I think us REM fans, especially those who loved their absolutely astounding early work, would all agree that Grinch, on this topic you don’t know your head from your a$# and come across sounding like a teen-ager who didn’t listen to REM until the Monster CD or later. I mean, seriously, anyone over 30 who doesn’t at least appreciate the impact and quality of the the Murmur, Reckoning, Automatic for the People, Fables of the Reconstruction albums … my man, you must have a pretty narrow definition of what constitutes good music. Then again, you did say not a single good CD was released last year, if I’m not mistaken. So that’s cool. Whatever tips your boat, bro. Party on with the Journey or Deep Purple or whatever is so much better than REM….

Lew, getting back to the point (I’m still trying to comprehend REM as “the most overrated band in history”) … yes, the corporate radio owners have absolutely ruined it for discerning listeners in every city, and we do have a couple of decent “alternative” stations, which is two more than some places have, including my former South Florida home (talk about radio wasteland … that’s frightening down there).

But you’d just expect more from a music-rich major city like Atlanta. You’d expect to find the non-commercial, great music options you can find in cities like San Francisco, Denver, Chicago, Philly, NY (I get this great college station when I’m out in Queens, I think it’s Fordham U?).

By RyanSlade

January 3, 2007 10:58 AM | Link to this

DOB..so what is going to be the final say, Laroche leaving, or Laroche staying?

By Robert

January 3, 2007 11:09 AM | Link to this

Sell the Braves to Arthur Blank - he at least has a notion of calling the manager to account

By Lew

January 3, 2007 11:21 AM | Link to this

Well, I knew Pete Buck back when he worked at Wuxtry and the band was playing Abbott’s Pizza on Friday nights. That’s before their first album was released. That was a hellacious musical time in Athen’s history with REM, B52’s, Pylon and Love Tractor. I doubt there will ever be a more creative and fun musical period in Athens ever again. It’s like the point I made about Springsteen, though-Fame and fortune dulls your creative edge, which is sort of a Catch 22 as you are usually becoming more musically (or artistically) proficient at the same time. Apparently a little suffering aids the creative process.

By Bigboi

January 3, 2007 11:24 AM | Link to this

I agree, I think the radio stations here are much superior to other cities. I can’t wait to get into my car everyday and tune into the “Two Live Stews” I think those guys are fantastic or should I say “stew-pendous” Go Braves

By Sam

January 3, 2007 11:35 AM | Link to this

Not to muddle the waters too much but this idea that good teams are better in close games is, well, not valid (ha, you love that NYM). Seriously, go look it up. One run wins are mostly luck friends. It’s true. The mark of a truly dominant team is lots and lots of 3, 4 and 5 run wins. It’s all a matter of statistics. For example, this is why runs scored versus runs allowed is such a good predicitve stat. I promise you that some team that’s even or perhaps even underwater in terms of runs scored runs allowed will be leading their division on June 1. Chances are you will find they have won a ton of one-run games. This describes the 2005 Nats by the way. Anyway, you can also bet that the team in question will come crashing down to earth in July and August. One-run games even out. Again, it’s luck. I promise you that if you put aside the easy emotional thought that “better teams MUST thrive in tight games” for a moment and go look at stats you will see the validity of this. The Baseballprospectus.com guys have written a zillion articles on this subject. I recommend you check those out. They are far better at describing this than I am.

By Matthew

January 3, 2007 11:36 AM | Link to this

I still don’t want to trade Laroche, but if we could get Mike Gonzales AND a quality leadoff hitter (a la Chone Figgins), then I’d have to jump on the deal, even giving up a infield prospect or two to do it. But, as several others have suggested, it seems most likely that Laroche will stay due to Schuerholz’s track record of not making late winter deals.

I hate the way Reitsma was treated. Regardless of performance, every person deserves basic human dignity. How would that moron in the truck like it if a dissatsfied customer from the McDonald’s where he works came and told him, “This Big-Mac is the worst-you suck!” right in front of his kids (I shudder at the thought of those types of genes being perpetuated). Reitsma is a class act, and I wish him the best. Hopefully he can land back in Cincy, where there appraently are fans who appreciate him.

I haven’t posted in several days, and didn’t get to wish everyone a very Merry Christmas and a great New Year. I hope everyone has a better 2007 than 2006, especially the Braves.

By Bigboi

January 3, 2007 11:37 AM | Link to this

DOB, have you heard anything regarding us getting Sammy Sosa? I think that would be a great pickup and would solidify left field.

By KC

January 3, 2007 11:37 AM | Link to this

DOB: Being a big music fan… have you checked out pandora.com? You’d probably like it. Good way to discover new stuff that suits your taste.

By David O'Brien

January 3, 2007 11:41 AM | Link to this

KC, agreed on Shiny Happy People, one of the worst, most annoying songs ever sung, and perhaps THE worst by a great band. Horrible song. But they did sing it with tongue planted firmly in cheek, for that that’s worth (not that it makes it any less annoying).

I’m now sitting here listening to this “Best of the IRS Years” CD, which has Begin the Begin, Radio Free Europe, Pretty Persuasion, Talk About the Passion, (Don’t Go Back To) Rockville, Sitting Still, Driver 8, Can’t Get There From Here, I Believe, Cuhyahoga, Life And How To Live It …

Most overrated band in history, huh? I guess I’ll know who NOT to go for an assessment of, say, Billie Holliday’s voice or Steve Earle’s songwriting….

LEW, Springsteen fans would point out that he wrote and recorded the Nebraska album after the commercial success of Born in the USA and that subsequent tour. Nebraska was his rawest stuff, done on a four-track recorder at home, and included what he considered to be some of the most personal songs of his career, including the likes of “Used Car”:

“My little sister’s in the front seat with an ice cream cone/My ma’s in the black seat sittin’ all alone/As my pa steers her slow out of the lot for a test drive down Michigan Avenue

Now, my ma, she fingers her wedding band/And watches the salesman stare at my old man’s hands

He’s tellin’ us all ‘bout the break he’d give us if he could, but he just can’t/Well if I could, I swear I know just what I’d do

Now, mister, the day the lottery I win I ain’t ever gonna ride in no used car again

Now, the neighbors come from near and far/As we pull up in our brand new used car

I wish he’d just hit the gas and let out a cry/ and tell ‘em all they can kiss our asses goodbye

My dad, he sweats the same job from mornin’ to morn/Me, I walk home on the same dirty streets where I was born

Up the block I can hear my little sister in the front seat blowin’ that horn/The sounds echoin’ all down Michigan Avenue

Now, mister, the day my numbers comes in/ I ain’t ever gonna ride in no used car again

By KC

January 3, 2007 11:42 AM | Link to this

I’ve worked in radio for the last 11 years, and my personal opinion is that it’s far too formulaic. I think the stations/shows that think outside the box are much more entertaining to listen to.

By lowermanor

January 3, 2007 11:42 AM | Link to this

For the best COMMERCIAL radio station on the planet, check out KPIG — www.kpig.com — out of Santa Cruz/San Francisco. You just don’t hear music like this on the radio anymore

Sample play list from THIS MORNING: Derek Trucks Band I Wish I Knew Dave Alvin 1968 John Hiatt Your Dad Did railer Park Troubadours It’s Ain’t Home ‘till You Ta Darrell Scott Let’s Call It A Life The Hombres Let It Out (Let It All Hang Austin Lounge Lizards Shallow End Of The Gene Pool Mick Fleetwood Band Where The Wind Blows Todd Snider Enjoy Yourself Grateful Dead Ripple Rodney Crowell Earthbound Waterboys And A Bang On The Ear Sam Bush Brilliancy Jackson Browne For A Dancer Johnny Cash Further On Up The Road Bruce Cockburn Wondering Where The Lions Ar Bodeans Stay On Doc Watson Shady Grove Alejandro Escovedo I Died A little Today

By David O'Brien

January 3, 2007 11:43 AM | Link to this

Bigboi: No. Have you?

By DonCoburleone

January 3, 2007 11:43 AM | Link to this

Sorry DOB, but REM does indeed SUCK!

By David O'Brien

January 3, 2007 11:44 AM | Link to this

Matthew, if Schuerholz could trade LaRoche and get both Mike Gonzalez AND Chone Figgins, I think he would’ve already done it. No such deal has been offered, I’m told by people I trust.

By David O'Brien

January 3, 2007 11:54 AM | Link to this

Lowermanor, that’s EXACTLY the kind of station I’m talking about. Not going to appeal to the masses like the crap on Clearchannel stations, but serious music fans would never change the channel (unless to hear a bit of sports talk).

There was a station in Houston, of all places (They called it the Sound of Texas), that used to play the likes of Alejandro Escovedo, Texas Tornados, old ZZ Top, Rodney Crowell, Steve Earle, James McMurtry … but I’m not sure if it wasn’t gobbled up by one of the horrible corporations and turned into another mainstream crapola producer).

By David O'Brien

January 3, 2007 11:55 AM | Link to this

Sorry, DonC, but you join Grinch on the musical-opinions-that-carry-no-weight list.

By ColumbusBuckeye

January 3, 2007 11:56 AM | Link to this

Dave,

I dig your taste in music, one of my favorite artists out there right now is G Love. Once you see that guy live once, most other shows seem insignificant. Another one for you, how about Ben Folds? He is a fantastic song writer, and plays the hell out of a piano.

I know that I’m in SEC country, but what do you think the outcome of the Ohio State vs. Florida game will be?

It should be a good one.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

January 3, 2007 11:58 AM | Link to this

Dayumn Grinch,

Looks like we just got BlackBalled big time over the REM deal. I’m not a REM fan by any means but I thought I had more than “a pretty narrow definition of what constitutes good music.” OUCH!!! (licking my wounds while listening to Pink Floyd: The Gunner’s Dream—Final Cut Album)

By David O'Brien

January 3, 2007 11:59 AM | Link to this

But I certainly welcome those opinions. And I can see where, if you’re a younger guy and have only really listened to REM’s output in the last 10-15 years, you might say they’re not good. Understood, completely.

But if you’re saying their early stuff, their first decade of stuff, sucks, then sorry, couldn’t disagree with you more.

What bands that came into their own in the past 25 years do you put highest on your list (that eliminates Zep, Stones, Beatles, etc, which most of us agree are incredibly good). What contemporary bands do you think are best?

By David O'Brien

January 3, 2007 12:05 PM | Link to this

Lowermanor, just reading over that phenomenal songlist from that station. John Hiatt’s “Your Dad Did” jumped off the list. God, what a great song, and one of my very favorite all-time albums, “Bring The Family.”

Tremendous singer/songwriter, and just an absolutely PERFECT album. One of my top 20 albums ever, no question. So glad you got me thinking about it. Gonna throw that beaut on now.

By PopeVanIII

January 3, 2007 12:06 PM | Link to this

DOB,

Lighting 100 in Nashville is an incredible non-corporate radio station. Don’t know if you’re familiar with it—you probably are—but if you aren’t, check it out next time you’re around Music City, USA.

By Kieran from Long Island

January 3, 2007 12:11 PM | Link to this

David If you see this could you fill me in, if not could someone else who might no please…

What do Braves officals think of Martin Prado? Is he expected to be a steady major leaguer? How close his he as a top prospects, and personall who do you think has a better upside OFFENSIVELY, he or Kelly Johnson, actually, forget about upside as it is a binch intangible, flat out, who’s gonna produce more for the braves in your opinion. I liked what I saw of Prado last year, saw him play live at Shea, but I need to know what more informed people’s opinions are on him, AVG, Power, Speed, Run production, etc. Thanks for any answers you may give.

By PopeVanIII

January 3, 2007 12:11 PM | Link to this

DOB,

My contemporary faves would be, in no particular order:

U2, Wilco, Pete Yorn, Ryan Adams, Belle & Sebastian, Old Crow Medicine Show, Weezer (sentimental favorite).

By Mets Stink

January 3, 2007 12:18 PM | Link to this

The Dave Matthews Band has to be one of the best in the last 25 years. Even better, though, is Dave Matthews and Tim Reynolds playing their acoustic sets. Great, great songs by Dave and amazing solos and riffs by Tim. It doesn’t get much better.

By Matthew

January 3, 2007 12:25 PM | Link to this

Thanks for the response DOB. So do you think the BRaves are done dealing, or do you perhaps see one or two more deals in the works? For me, the lineup would be fine for 2007 as:

Batting Order 2B: KJ/Prado SS: Renteria 3B: C Jones CF: Andruw Jones C: Brian McCann 1B: Laroche RF: Franceour LF: Langerhans/Diaz P

Rotation Smoltz Hampton James Hudson Davies/Cormier

Bullpen Wickman Soriano Boyer McBride Yates Villareal

Utility Orr Pena Langerhans/Diaz Thorman Brayan Pena

How does that sound? I’d like one more good bat off the bench if an affordable option is out there, a Jeff Conine type of player who is versatile and makes contact at the plate.

What do you all think? Can we run to the NL flag with this team?

By JP

January 3, 2007 12:27 PM | Link to this

DOB…I appreciate the music talk, but can’t believe you can have discussions about all these great bands from the last 25 years and not include Pearl Jam. Check out the new CD, it should have been in your list of the best releases of 2006.

By Carroll

January 3, 2007 12:38 PM | Link to this

Sam: excellent point about one-run games….I’d be curious to see if that applied to the Braves during the streak when they always fell flat on their faces during the playoffs….I wonder if they won a lot of 1-run games during those seasons to get to the playoffs in the first place.

Mathew: Chone Figgins is NOT a good/quality leadoff man! Just because you have speed, it does not mean you are a good leadoff man! If so, Pete Orr would have already been annointed the next leadoff man! We’d do MUCH better to use one of our own, high-OBP-tyoe guys like Kelly Johnson.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

January 3, 2007 12:38 PM | Link to this

Welcome back Matthew. Don’t worry, I won’t mention anything that has to do with the words “Capital” or “One” or “Wildcat Formation.” =(

By Jim Malone

January 3, 2007 12:43 PM | Link to this

What is story on John Thompson? Will he go to Spring Training with Braves or some other team?

By David O'Brien

January 3, 2007 12:55 PM | Link to this

Don’t know if Seattle is still on Thomson (they were earlier), but have heard Mariners are close on Reitsma. Rockies and Reds also negotiating with him.

If Thomson comes back to Braves, I’d guess it’d only be on a minor league deal after no other teams made him a major league offer. Still plenty of time for that.

By TennesseePaul

January 3, 2007 12:56 PM | Link to this

I’d like one more good bat off the bench if an affordable option is out there

We did sign Woodward for that purpose I thought. At least, that’s what JS lead me to believe.

By Pulpwood Smith

January 3, 2007 12:59 PM | Link to this

Dave-

Love the blog, particularly the music talk. Could not agree more re. Springsteen; simply the best live performer ever. As a fan since’75, let me nitpick however. Nebraska was actually recorded and released prior to Born in the USA. He actually performed 3 or 4 songs off Nebraska during each of the shows during the BITUSA tour.

By Bill

January 3, 2007 01:00 PM | Link to this

Spring Training parks…Yes I agree that getting to Disney to see the Braves is a hugh pain. It is somewhat overridden by the fine facilty.
But if you are in Central Fla in March you need to go see a game at Dodgertown in Vero. (The Braves are there quite frequently) It is a wonderful environment with a lot of history. No dugouts so the players and coaches all sit in the open.

Do it soon. The Dodgers are moving spring training HQ to Az in 2009.

By David O'Brien

January 3, 2007 01:01 PM | Link to this

PopeVan, I haven’t heard of that Nasvhille station, but sure wish I’d know of it last year when in was in Nashville for a few days and couldn’t find anything at all on the radio.

I like everyone on your list except never been a big fan of Weezer (and I know they have a hardcore following, so don’t mean to offend by saying they’re not good; just not my thing).

Just got that latest Old Crow CD a couple months ago. interesting. first time I’ve heard them.

By Matthew

January 3, 2007 01:07 PM | Link to this

Thanks for the welcome Hillbilly. At least we don’t have to worry about DMac jumping to the NFL-he’s only a sophomore. How many Ark players will get drafted in the NFL this year do you think? And the BBall Hogs had a nice game last night. SEC play starts Sat with Alabama. Hope their so obsessed with getting Saban that they overlook the Hogs.

Carroll: I didn’t mean to suggest that Chone Figgins was the next Rickey Henderson. But he does seem like the best available IF we’re not sticking with current Braves. Again, unless the Braves are blown away with an offer for Laroche, then we must keep him.

Can anyone tell me how close Will Startup is to being ready for the big time? I have read where he tore things up in minor league ball. Is he an option for this year’s bullpen or closer next year if Wickman retires?

Go Braves!

By Matthew

January 3, 2007 01:09 PM | Link to this

TennPaul:

I had forgotten about Woodward, and we signed Willie Harris also, for whatever it’s worth.

By TennesseePaul

January 3, 2007 01:12 PM | Link to this

What contemporary bands do you think are best?

Fascinating question. A matter of bias really, but for my answer I’d have the following in no real order:
For the all stars…Red Hot Chili Peppers, Pixies, Nirvana, Pearl Jam, Smashing Pumpkins, Radiohead. And for the up-n-comin’ Death Cab, Richard Swift and some others. How would this affect bands like U2, Tom Petty, or even the Rolling Stones. They all started before the 25 year mark, but are still around today.

By David O'Brien

January 3, 2007 01:20 PM | Link to this

Pulpwood Smith, you’re exactly right _ I was confusing the Born in the USA tour (1984) with The River tour (1980), which was also hugely successful, probably his first massively succesful one, wouldn’t you say? Anyway, you’re right, Nebraska came out in 1982, my first year of college. Born in the USA two years later, when all the clueless jumped on Glory Days and Born In The USA and thought that’s what Bruce was all about.

Anyway, Ghost of Tom Joad came out in mid-90s, and was anything but commercial or mainstream (I liked it, but I know many didn’t).

And even if some might not have liked “The Rising” because of the 9/11 correlation (accurate or not), I thought that was a damn good album. And the “Tunnel of Love” album, which was deeply personal and had a lot to do with his upcoming divorce, had some of his best stuff on it, wouldn’t you agree?

As for the losing-touch-with-his-roots charge made by another blogger, here’s a few lines from a song he released 11 years after Born in the USA:

The Ghost Of Tom Joad

“Men walkin’ ‘long the railroad tracks/Goin’ someplace there’s no goin’ back

“Highway patrol choppers comin’ up over the ridge,/Hot soup on a campfire under the bridge

“Shelter line stretchin’ round the corner/Welcome to the new world order/Families sleepin’ in their cars in the southwest/No home no job no peace no rest

The highway is alive tonight/But nobody’s kiddin’ nobody about where it goes/I’m sittin’ down here in the campfire light/Searchin’ for the ghost of Tom Joad…”

Sheer brilliance.

But at the risk of beating people over the heads like KC on Huddy (love you KC, just kidding with you), I’ll stop with the Springsteen and music talk. Suffice to say, no one who’s seen him live, whether 30 years ago or five years ago, wouldn’t agree he’s one of the greatest live performers in the history of rock and roll. I know he’s the best I’ve seen live, along with U2 back in the Joshua Tree era.

I’d have loved to have seen James Brown, Jerry Lee, Elvis, Johnny Cash or the Clash at their absolute peaks, but didn’t. Only saw the Clash at the end.

By David O'Brien

January 3, 2007 01:25 PM | Link to this

ColumbusBuckeye, I really like Ben Folds, especially his first few CDs. Liked G Love and Special Sauce early on, but kinda tired of them. But he’s changed his sound some, right? I should listen to his latest, maybe I’ll get it with what’s left of Itunes gift card.

Hillbilly _ Pink Floyd, another I’d have LOVED to see at their peak, especially back when I would’ve been on the, uh, same wavelength as they were. The Wall … oh, that brings back some hazy memories.

By Greg in TN

January 3, 2007 01:36 PM | Link to this

Hello everyone.

DOB, do you know if there has been any internal discussions within the club to add additional lighting at the Ted to improve sight of the ball in CF? I know there has been some things said about how difficult it is to track a ball in CF there due to the lack of backlighting and if AJ bolts after next year, that will be something to keep an eye on as a new CF would have to adjust to that.

By David O'Brien

January 3, 2007 01:36 PM | Link to this

Hey, does anybody absolutely HATE the way these bowls are parceled out now, one per night? so lame, compared to the old smorgasbord days. but that Boise-OU game was the most enjoyable I can ever remember watching, even more than last year’s great title game…

TennPaul, yeah, that’s why I tried to differentiate by saying bands that really came into their own in last 25. That eliminates Stones, who were huge before that, obviously. I’d say U2 really got huge in last 25, but that’s cutting it close, because they had great stuff released before that timeframe, the Boy and October albums. I think War was right about 25 years ago, no? (god that makes me feel old. can remember playing that in college, wearing out the vinyl LP).

The Clash would also fall outside the 25-year-window, since their greatest stuff was before 1980, including the London Calling album that I’d probably put No. 1 on my all-time albums list.

Most of those you named _ Radiohead, Pixies, Nirvana, Smashing Pumpkins … all would be on my list.

By David O'Brien

January 3, 2007 01:42 PM | Link to this

Kieran, we’ve discussed Prado quite a bit this winter, but if you’re just finding the ‘ol blog here, a refresher: Prado, at least officially, at this time is considered a candidate for the 2B job along with Kelly Johnson, with utility men Willy Aybar and Chris Woodward said to also be “in the mix,” whatever that means.

But if they don’t make any more moves, I know the Braves would like to see Johnson show enough this spring to nail down the regular job. He’s got ability to hit for average and power, and Bobby told me last night that Kelly would definitely be a leadoff candidate if he’s in the lineup.

By flange1

January 3, 2007 01:52 PM | Link to this

Hey All,

Hate to jump in on the REM thing too, but like Lew I was there in the early days. I love the band and have from the beginning. I was really into the music scene at that time and the thing that is as important as REM’s music is their influence on how to make music and doing things the way the band wants to. It is incredible how many bands became bands because they saw REM play. As good as the first 7 albums were and are, the live performances at the time were ten times BETTER… Did y’all know that Mr. Crowe’s Garden was a blatent REM clone band before they listened to the Ga. Satellites and became the Black Crows? I still laugh thinking about Rich Robinson playing a black Ric and trying to jangle….

On Baseball,

The Pittsburgh press is very down on the Pirates right now. It is interesting, the fans are screaming for the Pirates to SPEND some money and make some trades. Everything I have read inducates that beat writers believe that mike Gonzales will not pitch in Pittsburgh next year. I wish John S. would add to our package of Laroach (even Davies) if he could get Duke and Gonzales and then flip Duke with whomever for Baldelli….

By TennesseePaul

January 3, 2007 01:58 PM | Link to this

Chris Woodward said to also be “in the mix,” whatever that means

I had a quote from you last week, or when ever they signed the guy, referencing JS. It was something to the affect of Woodward was not in the running for the 2B job. that’d he’d be a vet bat on the bench utility guy. I’m hoping for that approach. Having him out there every day would just bum me out. It’d be like having Sosa in the rotation again.

By TLJ

January 3, 2007 01:59 PM | Link to this

Guys, I have figured a way to get Gonzalez and Figgins in a Braves uniform. Heck I will even throw in Baldelli.

First we get AJ to agree to a trade.
Secondly we get the angels to agree to pay AJ $ 140 million over 7 years ( I didn’t say it would be easy). AJ is then traded to the angels for Santana, Kotchman and Figgins.

LaRoche is then traded to the Pirates for Gonzalez and Gorezlanny ( we may have to throw in a prospect).

We then flip Santana , Salty and Escobar to TB for Baldelli.

Figgins plays 2nd base or left field and bats lead off. Kotchman and Thorman handle first base. Gorelanny joins the rotation and Gonzalez joins the bull pen.

We lose a little power but the offensive capacity is still there. We add speed in Figgins and Baldelli. The pitching staff is greatly improved.

What do you think? Yeah I know it will never happen but it was fun putting it together.

By Glass Half Full

January 3, 2007 02:04 PM | Link to this

Some of you have mentioned Kiss before. You should check out the Kissology Volume I (1974-1977) DVD set. Talk about showmanship and a band in its prime. The soun