AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2006 > December > 17
Sunday, December 17, 2006
LaRoche rumors just won’t stop
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Ah, yes, another 70-degree global-warming December day, another Adam LaRoche trade rumor.
Where there’s this much smoke _ the trade rumors, not the planet _ there’s usually fire, so don’t be too surprised if the Braves first baseman is traded before opening day.
That said, I’ve never put much stock in the three-way rumor that’s made its way through four or five New York papers in the past week, most recently appearing in today’s New York Times.
The proposal, according to an anonymous baseball official, would send LaRoche to the Pirates, lefty closer Mike Gonzalez from Pittsburgh to the Yankees, and 22-year-old outfielder Melky Cabrera from NY to the Braves.
Thing is, this supposed proposal hasn’t been confirmed by either an Atlanta or Pittsburgh official, on or off the record. A Pirates official told a buddy of mine that no such deal was imminent, and he doubted the Braves would do it in that form anyway.
A Braves person I talked to wouldn’t comment on it either way, neither confirm nor deny. But don’t read too much into that _ the Braves are involved in so many discussions this winter, the entire organization has gone into the bunker mentality that John Schuerholz prefers _ no comment, no comment, no comment.
For years, the Yankees have been notorious for leaking information about deals, always anonymous team officials. Sometimes there’s validity, but I’d guess that at least 75 percent of the trade rumors out of New York never come to fruition.
And in this instance, I can’t see the Braves doing this deal without getting something else in return. This isn’t a knock on Cabrera, who would be a great addition for the Braves and could fill a glaring weakness in the leadoff spot.
Of course, this would greatly reduce the playing time of LF Matt Diaz, who would revert to fourth-outfielder status. That or be traded, if the Braves decided they wanted to keep Ryan Langerhans because of his excellent defense, perhaps figuring that Langerhans just had a bad year at the plate in part because of a sore hand that contributed to his early struggles.
(Here’s an idea _ keep LaRoche, hit Aybar leadoff while he plays 2B or 3B most days, or sign a veteran 2B off the scrap heap this spring if Kelly Johnson or one of the other kids doesn’t look up for regular 2B work. Maybe give rookie OF Gregor Blanco at least a look in the leadoff spot this spring; who knows, he has no power but a plus-.400 OBP in the minors last season could be worth considering, long as you keep LaRoche and have such good power at other spots.)
The other rumor making the rounds is a revival of the LaRoche-to-Baltimore talks that nearly culminated in a LaRoche/Marcus Giles for Brian Roberts/Hayden Penn deal at the winter meetings, before O’s owner Peter Angelos quashed it at the last minute when he decided he didn’t want to part with fan favorite 2B Roberts.
Giles, of course, was non-tendered a week later by the Braves and appears likely to sign with San Diego, as was expected as soon as the Braves let him become a free agent. The revived LaRoche/O’s rumor is a straight-up LaRoche-for-Roberts proposal.
While it seems like the Braves would be giving up too much for Roberts, I can see where they’d do this deal and what their rationale would be: They’re more comfortable with Thorman replacing LaRoche at 1B than they are with their 2B/leadoff positions, where they have no proven commodities at either spot. Roberts would fill both of those needs.
His production was down last season (.286, 34 doubles, 10 homers, 55 RBIs, .757 OPS in 131 games) after he returned from arm surgery. Roberts, 29, was an All-Star in 2005 when he hit .314 with 45 doubles, 7 triples, 18 homers, 73 RBIs and a strong .387 OBP and .902 OPS.
He made $3.075 mill last season in his first year of arbitration eligibility, and could see his salary climb to near $5 mill in 2007. So he’d cost nearly $2 mill more than LaRoche next season, and be eligible for free agency after 2008, a year sooner than LaRoche.
Again, if the Braves do it, it’ll be to solve their 2B/leadoff voids at the same time.
Now back to Cabrera. The Yankees switch-hitter came through last year on the big NY stage, filling in for the injury-plagued Yankees OF and batting .280 with 35 extra-base hits (seven homers), 50 RBIs, 12 steals and a .360 OBP in 130 games.
He had comparable stats vs. lefties and righties, and hit .281 with runners on and .305 with runners in scoring position.
Cabrera was especially solid as a leadoff man, batting .333 (25-for-75) with eight extra-base hits, a .405 OBP and a .467 slugging percentage (his overall slugging percentage was .391).
In other words, he’s got a lot of promise, and also could move over to CF if and when Andruw leaves. He’s got a very good arm (he throws left-handed, bats both) and overall sound defensive skills.
That said, LaRoche-for-Cabrera straigt-up isn’t a good trade for Atlanta, in my opinion.
LaRoche is first-time arbitration-eligible. He’ll make $2.5-3 mill and, based on his improvement from his first full season in 2005 (.259-20-78, .775 OPS) to his second full season in 2006 (.285-32-90, .915 OPS), there’s no reason to believe he can’t hit 35-40 homers and drive in 100-110 runs.
He drove in 90 while hitting sixth or lower in the order much of the season, and his performance improved dramatically in late June, exactly when he began playing against left-handers and also when he began taking prescribed medication for attention-deficit disorder (same medication that Craig Biggio, Derek Lowe and others have taken or are taking).
Beginning July 17, LaRoche hit .322 with 17 homers, 43 RBIs, a .388 OBP and a gaudy 1.033 OPS over his final 63 games, with ONE error in that span.
Might LaRoche regress and lose some trade value? Sure. But the same could be said for any young players. The point is, there’s little in his performance to suggest he will.
And as much as Cabrera would fill a need atop the order and potentially in CF beyond next season, the Braves should be able to get something else, in addition to Cabrera, for a guy (LaRoche) who ranked 10th in the NL in OPS last season.
They were asking for setup man Scott Proctor and Cabrera earlier, and now they’re going to settle for Cabrera? No. That doesn’t compute.
An argument could be made that the Braves would be better off trading LaRoche straight-up to Pittsburgh for Gonzalez, who converted 24 of 24 saves and would give them more security in their bullpen and, along with recently acquired power arm Rafael Soriano, afford the Braves two closers-in-waiting to set up Bob Wickman next year and spell him when necessary.
But I wouldn’t do that deal, either. Again, I think they should get more in return for LaRoche, who got a lot of Gold Glove votes for his defense, and whose tape-measure homers aren’t the result of huge muscles _ no steroid suspicions there, if you’ve ever seen him up close _ but rather an astoundingly quick bat (according to Bobby Cox and Terry Pendleton _ that springs out from an unlikely, impossibly quiet stance.
Anyway … sure, trade him if you can use it to fill needs. But that’s plural _ needs. As in, perhaps, Chone Figgins, Casey Kotchman and a pitcher from the Angels.
But even if it were just Figgins and Kotchman, at least you’d be getting an extremely versatile player (Figgins) under contract an an affordable rate for two more years, who can play second base and bat leadoff next year, or play 4-5 different positions and bat leadoff if one of the kids is ready for 2B).
And you’d get Kotchman, who was a highly touted prospect before his mono and lingering effects forced him to miss most of last season. He’s a line-drive gap hitter and would give you some insurance at 1B if the Braves replace LaRoche with Scott Thorman.
Thorman, 25, plays hard at all times and has natural power, but he’s just a serviceable defensive player and Cox plans to use him a lot in LF in 2007 if LaRoche is back.
Thorman hit more than 16 homers only once in five minor league seasons (21 was his high) and batted .234 with five homers and 14 RBIs in 128 at-bats last season as a Braves rookie. In his last 33 games for Atlanta, he hit .209 (14-for-67) with one homer, four RBIs, two walks and 15 strikeouts.
He’s still raw, and would be a significant dropoff from LaRoche in every respect, at least for his first season. No question about that. But if the Braves also had Kotchman, between the two of them they’d at least have some insurance.
Again, trading LaRoche, after already losing Giles, isn’t something I’d do without filling a couple of needs with what you get in return. And while the Braves scored more than enough runs and had more than enough power last season, without LaRoche and Giles you’d be counting heavily on Francoeur, McCann and possibly the 22-year-old Cabrera to avoid any setbacks and produce like veterans.
That is, unless you believe Chipper can stay healthy for 150 games and Thorman will make huge progress in his first full season, and one of rookies or converted outfielder Kelly Johnson will shine at second base….
OK, enough about that trade rumor, for now at least.
Couple other things.
Listening to the great Tom Waits (new three-CD set “Orphans” is spectactular) while glancing through the information-filled Bill James Handbook _ and if you guys want to buy ONE baseball reference book, this is definitely the one.
It’s always fun to peruse his projections for hitters and pitchers for the following season, however the stats maven James _ and my former Univ. of Kansas professor, of Baseball Literature (though technically I only monitored the class for a couple weeks before realizing no opening was going to come up and I wasn’t going to get credit if I kept attending, so I left) _ comes up with the numbers.
(What a terrible run-on sentence that was. No time to clean it up. Gotta hop on the Triumph, day’s getting away from me.)
Last season, for instance, James projected that Andruw Jones would hit .269 with 32 doubles, 42 homers, 113 RBIs and 126 strikeouts.
Andruw’s’s actual numbers: .262 with 29 doubles, 41 homers, 129 RBIs and 127 K. Not bad.
James projected that Rafael Furcal would hit .285 with 32 doubles, 13 homers, 58 RBIs and 37 steals. He hit .300 with 32 doubles, 15 HRs, 63 RBIs, 37 steals.
But he also misses badly on some guys, of course. So don’t get too caught up in it.
Anyway, here’s a few 2007 projections I thought you might be interested in.
SOME PITCHERS:
_ Tim Hudson: 15-10, 3.75 ERA, 147 K in 223 innings.
_ John Smoltz: 18-7, 3.17 ERA, 200 K in 227 innings.
_ Mike Hampton: 7-7, 4.50 ERA, 71 K in 130 innings.
_ Chuck James: 13-7, 3.53 ERA, 164 K in 186 innings.
_ Horacio Ramirez: 7-7, 4.53 ERA, 63 K in 133 innings.
_ Kyle Davies: 3-4, 4.86 ERA, 51 K and 33 walks in 63 innings.
_ Bob Wickman: 4-3, 3.77 ERA, 41 saves, 50 K in 62 innings.
AND SOME HITTERS:
_ Francoeur: .276 avg. w/ 34 doubles, 31 HRs, 111 RBIs, 27 walks, 123 K, .314 OBP, .803 OPS.
_ McCann: .315 with 33 doubles, 23 HRs, 87 RBIs, .383 OBP, .928 OPS (Damn!).
_ LaRoche: .281 with 39 doubles, 29 HRs, 89 RBIs, .353 OBP, .883 OPS.
_ Andruw: .264 with 32 doubles, 40 HRs, 115 RBIs, 131 K, .355 OBP, .882 OPS.
_ Chipper: 133 games, .293 with 30 doubles, 27 HRs, 90 RBIs, .398 OBP, .925 OPS.
_ M. Giles: .281 with 35 doubles, 15 HRs, 95 runs, 66 RBIs, .351 OBP, .797 OPS.
_ M. Diaz: 110 games, .316 with 25 doubles, 10 HRs, 49 RBIs, .355 OBP, .846 OPS
_ C. Figgins: .281, 25 doubles, 8 HRs, 60 RBIs, .348 OBP, .739 OPS.
_ Me. Cabrera: 130 games, .285, 24 doubles, 10 homers, 69 runs, 60 RBIs, .351 OBP, .762 OPS.
_ Baldelli: 123 games, .306, 29 doubles, 5 triples, 16 homers, 68 RBIs, .348 OBP, .883 OPS.
_ C. Crawford: .300, 26 doubles, 14 triples, 15 HRs, 55 stolen bases, 100 runs, 76 RBIs, .339 OBP, .795 OPS.
(Maybe the Braves should go after this Crawford dude … Inside joke here among Braves/Man in Black blog denizens. I couldn’t resist).
