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Monday, December 11, 2006
Braves face Tuesday deadline
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
While the rumor-an-hour mill continues grinding, the Braves face a very real decision Tuesday that’s probably already been made and may well offend a significant segment of their fan base.
Marcus Giles fans, of which there are plenty, have a difficult time understanding why the Braves might actually non-tender the plucky second baseman. Tuesday is the deadline for teams to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players or make them free agents eligible to sign with any team. (Take poll at bottom.)
If they non-tender Giles, a 2003 All-Star whose production has since slipped steadily, the Braves will get nothing in the way of compensation from any team that signs him. And folks, barring a late trade, it does appear the Braves are going to non-tender him.
They’ll also probably non-tender reliever Chris Reitsma, with only first baseman Adam LaRoche and right-hander Oscar Villarreal likely to tendered among aribitration-eligibles. They could always re-sign Reitsma to lesser contract as he makes his comeback from elbow surgery, but a change of scenery might be appealing for a guy who’s not been well-received by some Braves fans (to say the least).
Before I go any further about Giles, let me relate a conversation I had with an American League scout this afternoon, one who is both quite familiar with Tampa Bay’s needs, and one who was just in the Dominican scouting winter ball.
First, he told me the Devil Rays would do the Rocco Baldelli-to-Braves deal in a heartbeat for shortstop Yunel Escobar and a certain starting pitcher. But that pitcher ain’t Kyle Davies. It’s Chuck James. They’re drooling over him.
But I don’t see the Braves giving up James, and don’t think they should, for what it’s worth (again, Braves haven’t asked my opinion on this matter, but I’m ready by the phone should they call).
The D-Rays love James’ major league track record - it’s less than one season, but impressive - and believe Davies’ health is too much a question mark. But they do like Escobar a lot and would like him to be their future shortstop.
They could use catching prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia - also being discussed in a potential deal for Baldelli - to flip for a starting pitcher, but again that’s not as definite as getting one in hand. Anyway, this scout seemed to believe the team that gets Baldelli will have to give up a good starter.
OK, about the Dominican winter league. This guy was just there and saw a relief pitcher who he’s seen thrown 95-96 mph in the past top out at only 91 mph in the D.R.
He said the guy looked like he was searching, like he had no answers. He felt bad for him, the scout said. And he also said another scout saw this pitcher make a start the week before and not get out of the first inning.
Now, I don’t know if maybe these two guys each saw Rafael Soriano on a bad day, but it would at least explain a little bit why Seattle was willing to trade him to the Braves for injury-plagued lefty Horacio Ramirez.
As this scout told me, Soriano is “the best” setup man in baseball when he’s healthy, but the guy told me other scouts were theorizing that he hasn’t bounced back from being drilled by the Vladimir Guerrero line drive on Aug. 29.
Soriano had headaches and dizziness in September, which is why the Mariners didn’t pitch him again in the regular season after that frightful incident, which left him with a concussion and one night in intensive care.
The Braves obviously scouted Soriano in the D.R. this winter, and John Schuerholz said their reports were solid. So I have nothing to go on except what the Braves said and this other scout told me.
My bet is that Soriano is just getting his legs back under him and still shaking out the cobwebs from a horrifying incident. I certainly would have made the deal, if I were the Braves and was satisfied with what I saw in the D.R.
There’s no reason the beaning would affect his arm, obviously. So there’s no reason to think he won’t be back to what he was last season before the incident (he had bounced back from a July DL stint for a sore shoulder and was throwing with his usual effectiveness before getting drilled by Vlad).
But it does at least offer another side, or reason, to why the Mariners would be so desparate for a starter that they’d trade one of baseball’s best relievers for a lefty starter who hasn’t had a healthy season since 2003.
OK, on to Giles. The Braves weren’t able to complete a trade at last week’s winter meetings, where interest in Giles alone was tepid, at best. The Braves would’ve had to package him with another player to get a significant return, which is why they were willing to include him with Adam LaRoche in a proposal for Baltimore 2B Brian Roberts and pitching prospect Hayden Penn.
That deal was agreed upon and ready to be finalized before Orioles owner Peter Angelos killed it. Angelos didn’t want to give up Roberts, his team’s most popular player, even though the O’s would have “won” the trade in the eyes of most observers, since LaRoche is the best player in that deal, period.
Though Giles’ stats are comparable to Roberts’ numbers, there are less concerns about Roberts and the O’s believe his peak years are ahead of him. The same can’t be said for Giles, in the view of most.
A trade for Giles before Tuesday seems highly unlikely, because any interest team could wait to see if he’s non-tendered, them probably sign Giles for less than $6 mill - maybe a LOT less - and without giving up anything in a trade.
If the Braves non-tender him, it will be a financial decision based on Giles’ declined production and rising salary, which would be close to $6 million if the Braves tender him a contract. He’s a fifth-year arbitration-eligible player who’ll be eligible for free agency after the 2007 season.
While the Braves don’t have a candidate they’re certain can step in and fill the void with solid defense and offense in 2007, they seem willing to go with what they have - Martin Prado? Kelly Johnson? - or try to sign someone cheap this spring if it’s clear neither of them is ready.
As they showed in the Tom Glavine failed “negotiations,” the Braves aren’t willing to extend themselves beyond their payroll limit, even if they don’t actually start paying salaries until the spring. In other words, much as some outside the organization - i.e., fans - won’t understand why they can’t be over $80 million now and just assume they can get it straightened out before they start writing the checks, the Braves won’t do it.
They lost Glavine - they insist they wanted him - because they wouldn’t even tell him informally, “Hey, Tom, we can pay you $7 mill (or whatever) if we’re able to trade this guy and that guy to free up payroll.” They wouldn’t tell him any figure, and John Schuerholz told me they simply couldn’t engage in negotiations until they had the payroll cleared.
So they’re not going to do it with Giles, if they’ve decided that his salary must go (and I don’t know that they have, but that’s the general feeling I get from talking to people on the periphery of this matter).
Listen, much as a lot of folks love Giles’ scrappy style, the fact of the matter is that he’s gone from being one of the three or four most productive offensive second baseman in the majors to being closer to the middle, plagued by injuries and declining power at an age (28) when he should be in his prime.
Giles hit .316 with 49 doubles, 21 homers and a whopping .916 OPS … in 2003.
Yes, four seasons ago.
His average has slipped each year since, to .311, .291 and last season’s .262, which matched his career-low set in his 2001 rookie year.
His OPS has slipped from .916 to .821, .826, and last year’s .728.
His slugging percentage has dropped from .526 in 2003 to .443, .461, and last year’s career-worst .387, 43 points below his rookie slugging percentage.
His on-base percentage has slipped from .390 in 2003 to .378, .365, and last year’s .341.
He was never a big stolen-base guy, but even that’s dropped from 17 in 21 attempts in 2004, to 16 in 19 attempts in 2005, to last year 10 steals in 15 attempts.
And after striking out 80 times in 2003 and 70 times in 2004, he’s whiffed 108 and 105 times in the past two seasons.
If the Braves weren’t strapped for cash, perhaps they’d be willing to gamble that a healthy Giles could rebound and have a stellar year. Maybe. But they are strapped for cash.
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