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Friday, December 8, 2006
Should Braves swap prospects for Baldelli?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Baseball scouts and general managers will tell you that sometimes the best trade is the one you don’t make.
I think we have a classic example from this past week’s Braves trade that didn’t happen, when Baltimore balked after preliminarily agreeing to a deal that would have sent Orioles 2B Brian Roberts and pitching prospect Hayden Penn to Atlanta for Adam LaRoche and Marcus Giles. Yes, LaRoche AND Giles.
Before we delve into the newest buzz, the Rocco Baldelli-to-Braves trade talks that could produce a very significant deal involving Atlanta’s top two position-player prospects _ Salty and Escobar _ and perhaps a pitcher such as Kyle Davies, let’s look back to Lake Buena Vista.
It almost happened. Until tonight, I didn’t believe it. I figured the Orioles were telling people about the offer and leaving some crucial element out, or saying they backed out when it was actually the Braves who came to their senses.
But tonight someone who knows told me, and I believe it. Absolutely believe it.
So I was wrong. The Braves wanted to do the deal at the winter meetings and the Orioles indeed pulled out of it after first agreeing to it, all because owner Peter Angelos is apparently so smitten with fan-favorite Roberts, whose stats are similar to Giles’ stats, and because he’s concerned about the steady erosion of B-more’s fan base and wants to stop the slide.
The Braves should consider themselves fortunate that Angelos is a meddler. Really. He may have saved them from dealing away a young 1B who could produce a 40-homer, 100-RBI man next year and compete for a Gold Glove.
With Roberts and Giles being similar _ except Roberts has and would bat leadoff without reluctance _ the deal would’ve amounted to LaRoche for Penn, right?
Penn’s a right-hander whose major league stats _ 3-6, 9.31 ERA in 14 starts _ are worse than those lugged by Davies, who, you may recall, has struggled a bit in the bigs.
The Braves wanted to do the deal because it’s a deal they knew they didn’t believe they’d be able to do two years from now, meaning when Penn is a hot young starting pitcher in the majors. They (Braves) believe that strongly in his ability and future.
Last year in Triple-A, Penn was 7-4 with a sparkling 2.26 ERA, 85 strikeouts and only 27 walks and 71 hits allowed in 87-2/3 innings, with two complete games in 14 starts.
There’s no question he’s got a lot of talent, and he’s only 22. But to give up LaRoche in that deal _ well, seemed to me that it was a bit much. Then again, there’s a reason I’m doing what I do and Schuerholz and Co. do what they do.
Anyway, Angelos stepped in and killed it for all the wrong reasons _ to appease his fans and because he personally likes Roberts’ scrappy play. But in the end, I’ve got a feeling the Braves will be pleased he did step in.
And part of the reason I’ve got that feeling is Baldelli, who the Braves might get if they want him bad enough. Repeat, MIGHT GET. The Devil Rays are talking to several other teams about Baldelli, including the White Sox and Team Angelos. It’s not just the Braves in this thing.
If the Braves could land him, they’d add a dynamic offensive performer who’s extremely affordable for the next 2-5 years, who can give them an immediate upgrade in left-field production, immediate upgrade from the leadoff position, and possibly move to center field if Andruw Jones leaves after next season as a free agent.
And did we say affordable? D-Rays bought out couple of years of his free agency with a multi-year contract that showed vision and now looks even more astute on their part (Braves, perhaps you’ll think of approaching McCann and Francoeur with such an offer? Maybe?)
Anyway, the Baldelli contract was worth a maximum of $32 mill over six years, and now after he made $2 mill last year and didn’t hit plate-appearance incentives (he was on the DL until early summer), he can make a maximum of $26 million over the next five seasons, and that’s only if he hits that 600-PA incentive and if three options are exercised for 2009-2011.
He’ll make just $750,000 next year, then $2.25 million in ‘08 ($4 mill if he gets 600 PAs in ‘07). Then there’s a $6 mill option for 2009 with a $4 mill buyout, then options of $8 mill for 2010 and $9 mill for 2011 (those two must be exercised together) with a $2 mill buyout.
In this absurd free-agent market, those are prices for a mediocre player. And he’s not mediocre.
He’s not going to hit 40-50 homers like Andruw, but he’s going to hit for a higher average, steal bases, rack up doubles and give you perhaps 20-25 homers, maybe more eventually.
He’s 25, with a cool name and a solid all-around game that could reach a higher level if he’d only stay healthy a full season. Baldelli has a .289 average with 83 doubles, 17 triples, 43 homers and 209 RBIs in 384 games _ though it’s taken him four years to do it.
After a strong rookie season in 2003 _ .289 average, 51 extra-base hits (11 homers), 78 RBIs, 27 SBs _ his ‘04 season was shortened by surgery for a torn anterior cruciate ligament, then he hurt his elbow while he was out and needed “Tommy John” surgery.
After missing the 2005 season and part of ‘06 recovering from surgeries, Baldelli returned to bat .302 with 24 doubles, six triplesm, 16 homers, 57 RBIs and a career-high .533 slugging percentage in 92 games last season.
His speed wasn’t all the way back _ 10 steals in 11 attempts _ but he was healthy and aggressive. He plays the game hard, plays it right, all the clichés. Good player. Real good.
His .329 career on-base percentage might scare some, especially for a guy who might hit leadoff. But look deeper and you’ll find that Baldelli has a robust .335 average with a .366 OBP and robust .639 slugging percentage in 191 at-bats as a leadoff man _ all but eight of those at-bats coming last season.
The guy hit .339 with a stunning 1.018 OPS as a leadoff man last season, racking up 31 extra-base hits (11 homers) in 183 at-bats _ which makes it a lot easier to overlook his 34 strikeouts/6 walks batting No. 1.
Apparently, he’s one of those who like hitting in the leadoff role. Humm.
Giving up catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and shortstop Yunel Escobar, plus perhaps another pitcher _ the D-Rays want Chuck James, but won’t get him _ might be difficult to stomach, particularly Salty. Big, sweet-swinging switch-hitting catchers don’t come along often.
But given that you have one of the two best young catchers in the game in McCann, who’ll be a fixture for years to come, and given that you have plenty of middle-infield depth and a current shortstop with an affordable contract for two more years … I’d do it.
Yes, even though trading Davies, who might reasonably be expected to develop into a solid top-of-the-rotation starter, leaves you a bit thin in rotation candidates if Mike Hampton has any problems coming back from T.J. surgery.
I’d still do it. Because Baldelli is a good hitter who gives you insurance if Andruw leaves, and replaces Giles’ production this year if the Braves trade or non-tender the second baseman. Whoever fills in for Giles _ prospects, Kelly Johnson, whoever _ might give you similar production to what you got from left field last year, and Baldelli should give you more than you got from Giles.
And did I mention he likes hitting leadoff?
What do you guys think? If the D-Rays will do it, should the Braves pull the trigger?
But don’t get too excited just yet, because as I said, the Braves are just one of at least 3-4 teams the D-Rays are talking to, and it might take a while before they feel like they have the best offer they can get. The D-Rays are in the driver’s seat on this one.
