AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2006 > December > 07
Thursday, December 7, 2006
Good trade, but what now for Braves?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Impressive work by John Schuerholz and Frank Wren in Orlando, but now what?
Now that the Braves have bolstered their bullpen in a major way by trading Horacio Ramirez _ I’m still amazed that’s all they had to give up _ for setup man and potential future closer Rafael Soriano, they have decisions to make.
The two big ones are seemingly interconnected _ 1. Should the Braves trade or non-tender Marcus Giles (the tender date is Tuesday, Dec. 12), and 2. Should they trade Adam LaRoche.
In case they forget to ask me, here’s what I’d do if it were my decision: Trade Giles for whatever you can get before Tuesday, to get rid of his projected $5-plus million salary, or non-tender him if you can’t find a taker.
This would allow you to keep LaRoche, and I absolutely would not trade LaRoche now that the Braves don’t have to use him to get the pitching they swiped from Seattle. No reason to trade a guy who’s only going to make about $3 mill next season and might hit hit 35-40 homers and drive in 110 (LaRoche drove in 90 last year hitting near the bottom of the order most of the season).
Beyond the basics _ .285-32-90 _ here’s a few LaRoche stats I found in the new Bill James Baseball Handbook: He was 10th in the NL in OPS (.915) and fifth in the second half (1.042) behind only Ryan Howard, Lance Berkman, Albert Pujols and Garrett Atkins.
LaRoche was third in the NL in “BPS” (batting average plus slugging percentage; gotta love those B.James stats) vs. fastballs with a 1.026 total, behind a couple of decent hitters named Howard (1.199) and Pujols (1.045).
He was fifth in OPS among NL 1B, behind Pujols, Howard, Berkman and Nick Johnson.
And he was eighth in OPS for lefty hitting vs. right-handed pitchers, with a .950 mark that trailed Howard (1.164), Berkman (1.142), Beltran (1.053), some dude named Chipper (1.036) and another named McCann (1.001), Carlos Delgado (.977) and Johnson (.952).
That’s right, three Braves in the top eight in that category. But that’s another story for another day. Maybe tomorrow, if I’m bored.
Again, let me reiterate: They don’t need to trade LaRoche now, not if they drop Giles’ salary. And if you don’t HAVE to trade LaRoche, then you don’t trade him.
Sure, they could revisit the deal with the Angels and probably get utility stud Chone Figgins, 1B Casey Kotchman and another, lesser piece, but then you’ve filled the leadoff spot but replaced a fine all-around first baseman with Scott Thorman or Kotchman, neither of whom is comparable to LaRoche defensively or offensively.
Besides, the Braves believe they can get good work from one or a combination of prospects at 2B, and a year from now they might really have a solid 2B emerge from that group.
And a year from now, if LaRoche has another good year and becomes too expensive to keep (assuming payroll doesn’t rise much), you can always trade him for plenty then, and either move Chipper to first base in 2008 or consider Jarrod Saltalamacchia for the job (but Bobby Cox reiterated Wedndesday that the Braves aren’t ready to move Salty from the catching spot yet, and might keep him there to maintain his value, which will be enormous if he bounces back with a strong year in the minors).
Anyway … Tim Hudson appears likely to be back, because the Braves don’t have to deal him and were never going to simply dump his salary without getting plenty of talent back. At $6 mill next season he’s a bargain, and if he has a strong year he’ll still be a bargain at $13 mill the next year, easily tradeable if the Braves feel the need next winter.
This team had a great winter meetings just by making the deal for the nasty, extremely effective Soriano without giving up anything except Horacio, who was going to have to compete for a fifth-starter job if he was back with the Braves.
Good as Horacio looked in 2003 as a rookie, he simply hasn’t panned out because of his string of injuries. Change of scenery might be the best thing for “Ho.”
Consider this: Ramirez was 14-8 with a 3.58 ERA in his first 38 major league starts though May 25, 2004. Then his shoulder woes began. Since then, he’s 16-14 with a 4.60 ERA in 48 games (46 starts) with 117 strikeouts, 99 walks and 301 hits allowed in 279-2/3 innings.
That ain’t good, folks. And that’s all the Braves gave up to get Soriano, who’s the same age (27) and has a 2.17 ERA and .197 opponents’ average in 108 relief appearances, with 151 strikeouts and 37 walks in 128-2/3 innings.


