AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2006 > November > 27
Monday, November 27, 2006
Glavine: Make a decision, already
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
This is a crappy blog I’m sending from the Las Vegas airport at about 9:40 p.m. Pacific Time on Sunday, before I catch a red-eye flight to the city of raised middle fingers.
OK, kidding _ about it being the city of raised fingers, not about this being a weak blog. At least at the start it feels like it’ll be weak, since I have nothing new to report in a week in which the Braves have done nothing in the way of making news. Maybe it’ll surprise me and turn out OK by the end _ the blog, that is.
Anyway … we should know something about which way Glavine’s leaning and/or whether the Braves seriously want him back this week, perhaps as soon as Monday.
Glavine’s agent didn’t call me back Sunday _ I called him on vacation; never say I’m not dedicated _ and he usually is good about answering or returning calls. So I’ll take that as the agent had nothing to say or was enjoying the end of his own holiday weekend.
Glavine was supposed to spend the week on vacation with his family discussing his Mets/Braves decision and ramications it could have with various family members, soliciting their opinions as to the importance of having him at home in Atlanta instead of flying the kids back and forth to New York, etc.
Agent Gregg Clifton told me last week that if Glavine decided he wanted to stay home and pitch for the Braves in ‘07, then the pitcher would tell the agent to contact the Braves and see if they wanted him and if they could make it happen.
The Mets will keep a spot for him, long as this doesn’t drag out too long.
A lot of you have asked me if I think Hudson would have to be traded to bring back Glavine. Not sure. I don’t think it’d be essential, since Hudson is “only” making $6 mill next season. But there will have to be some players moved, like Horacio Ramirez and Marcus Giles. I still think Giles will be traded regardless.
My gut feeling still is that Glavine is going back to the Mets, but I wouldn’t be shocked either way, really. Bottom line, I just don’t see him leaving at least $5 million, and probably a lot more, on the table. The Mets would likely make him a two-year offer worth perhaps $20-22 million, or a one-year deal with an easily vesting option if he stays healthy.
I know he’s implied or said he might retire after he gets 300 wins (he has 290), but I just find it hard to believe Glavine, if he has a year next season like he had in 2006, would walk away from another potential 10-15 win season and another $10 mill or so in salary in 2008.
I know, I know, he’s made a fortune and doesn’t need more, but still …
As for the Braves, I can’t see how they could offer Glavine more than $7-8 mill and a one-year contract, since Smoltz is only making $8 million and it sure wouldn’t look very good to offer Glavine more.
In the dearth of actual news last week, there were at least three major “rumors” involving Braves, but like most others this winter they’ve had no basis in fact. I’m not going to get into them or answer questions about every rumor, because there’s no sense in me adding validity to them by commenting on some that are just fantasy or pranks fabricated by people on other teams’ blogs.
If a rumor that I know has substance pops up, I’ll comment. I’ll give you my opinion, tell you what I know.
Just a couple of things that have been on my mind in light of all the absurd free-agent contracts that have already been signed well before the Dec. 4-7 winter meetings, which usually signals the start of the free-agent frenzy but will just be another busy week in the already ongoing process this year.
First of all, it seems even more likely that Andruw will test the free-agent waters next winter, and that he’ll be too expensive for the Braves to keep, just as Vernon Wells figures to be too rich for Toronto to retain (Wells also eligible for free agency after the 2007 season).
Wells and Andruw are far superior all-around outfielders than any of the guys who’ve been so richly rewarded this winter _ Alfonso Soriano (eight years, $136 million), Carlos Lee (six years, $100 million), Juan Pierre (five years, $44 million: ridiculous), Gary Matthews Jr. (five years, $50 million: unbelievable).
The bar’s been set at about $17 mill per season for start OFs in looong contracts by Carlos Beltran (two years ago), Soriano and Lee, so what’s Andruw worth? He’s a year younger than Soriano and has nine consecutive Gold Gloves, nine more than Soriano.
And by the way, does anybody realize that Gary Matthews Jr. _ pretty much a journeyman with a .249 career average until last year’s breakout with the Rangers _ is actually almost 2-1/2 years OLDER than Andruw? Seriouly. That’s amazing, to me. Matthews is 32, born in Aug. 1974. Andruw’s 29, born in April 1977.
Speaking of Andruw, the Angels’ signing Matthews might signal the end of the Angels’ interest in Jones. But I don’t think so.
After Matthews has a mediocre season, or just a good-but-not-great one, in 2007, the Angels could well be convinced by Scott Boras that they still need to spend, oh, $120 million over six years to sign Andruw Jones.
‘Druw is going to be described in detail as the Greatest Center Fielder of The Modern Era and the Best Free Agent on the Market next winter by Boras, who’ll put together an extensive, stat-filled book to support the claim. He did such a document for Greg Maddux and other clients when they hit free agency.
Boras told the Angels they needed to sign Beltran when he was a free agent, that he was the kind of player who would win them titles. They passed, and he went to the Mets, who won the NL East this year while the Angels failed to meet expectations. Angels owner Arte Moreno listens to Boras and will be reminded of what Beltran could have meant to them, and what Andruw could mean to them.
If not the Angels, then the Rangers or White Sox could be ready to pay Andruw the bucks that Boras believes he will command.
I still believe Andruw will be a Brave for all of 2007, barring an unlikely complete fall-from-contention by Atlanta before the trade deadline. My feeling is based on a couple of things _ the Braves aren’t actively shopping him (listening, maybe, but not actively shopping him) and he and Boras have implied strongly that Andruw would use his 10-and-5 veto power to block a trade.
Understand, they _ Boras and Andruw _ want him playing where he’s comfortable in 2007 in his free-agent walk year, not switching teams and certainly not switching leagues to the Angels or White Sox.
Of course, if they could go ahead and lock up a huge, rich contract extension with a team he’d be traded to, maybe they’d listen. But that seems unlikely.
The Braves would have to get a ton of talent back before they’d agree to a trade, and then Andruw would have to approve the trade and have the time for Boras to work out a long extension, and so on. Just seems like it’s way unlikely to happen in this offseason.
OK, gotta catch my flight. The blog wasn’t so bad, after all. Maybe? Hopefully?
Rock Chalk, Jayhawk. A beautiful thing.
