AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2006 > November > 17
Friday, November 17, 2006
Would Glavine return without no-trade clause?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Just when you thought you’d heard enough _ maybe more than enough _ about Tom Glavine’s pending decision to pitch next season for the Mets or the Braves (assuming Atlanta makes him an offer), let me point out a factor that’s been entirely overlooked.
Yes, even though every news-gathering organization in New York and beyond has dissected his current contract and the family/money dynamics at play in The Decision, there still is something we’ve all missed. And here it is.
More than money, this could be a deal-breaker with the Braves (again, assuming they make him an offer next week). And remember, you read it here first:
No-trade clause.
Or rather, no no-trade clause.
As most of you know, the Braves don’t give no-trade clauses. One of the few teams that doesn’t. Or at least they haven’t, not under John Schuerholz.
Chipper didn’t get one, Andruw didn’t get one, Smoltz didn’t get one, not even when Chipper and Smoltz reworked their contracts in the past two years to help accommodate the Braves.
So there’s no reason to believe Glavine can get one from the Braves. And that could be a problem. A big problem. A deal-breaking problem (again, assuming the Braves make him an offer, which I’m fairly certain they will once the Mets formally decline their $14 million option on Glavine by Monday night’s midnight deadline).
Even if te 40-year-old Glavine were willing to accept $7 million from the Braves instead of, say, a two-year offer worth $20 million from the Mets, here’s why the no-trade clause could ultimately keep him from returning to Atlanta (and I’m assuming _ lots of assumptions, huh? _ that Glavine sincerely is debating whether to take less and return to Atlanta for the sake of his family, including children whose lives he’s tired of having to disrupt by flying them from the family home in suburban Atlanta to New York most weekends to see dad in-season).
The problem with no no-trade: Say Glavine gets a $7 mill offer from Atlanta _ and if you think they’re going to offer him more than the $8 mill salary that Smoltz will get in 2007, I’d beg to differ _ and let’s say he’s ready to leave all that money on the table from the Mets.
He has 290 wins, and has said he might retire if he gets his 300th win next year. But what if Glavine gets his 300th win in, say, early July. What if _ IF _ the Braves are 10 games out of the wild-care race before the trade deadline, and a desperate, contending team such as, oh, far-away Seattle or San Diego offers the Braves a dynamic young player or players for Glavine.
What’s to stop the Braves from trading him to Seattle? Then, Glavine’s a free agent at the end of the season and once again facing the likelihood of pitching for a new team far from home if he wants to continue pitching.
And let me go on record saying I really, strongly believe he will continue pitching if he’s still as effective as he’s been the past 1-1/2 seasons. Keep in mind, this is a guy who, since making significant changes his pitching style at midseason 2005, has fashioned a 20-11 record and 3.26 ERA in his past 42 regular-season starts.
The blood-clot scare at midseason turned out to be a relatively minor circulatory problem that’s been addressed and isn’t supposed to cause any more issues. There’s a good chance Glavine, who’s never had any serious arm problems or surgeries, could pitch at least 2-3 more seasons, with his smooth, effortless mechanics. He’s not a power pitcher, and he’s a lefty.
But back to the no-trade. Is he really ready to accept a deal without a no-trade clause? The Mets will give him one, no question. He had a blanket no-trade clause in his current contract with them. But the Braves … well, they don’t give no-trade clauses, as we said.
Gary Sheffield had to drop the no-trade clause in his contract when he was traded to the Braves. They’re going to give one to Glavine, after not giving one to Smoltz or Chipper? No. (Those guys and Andruw have no-trade protection now, but earned it the hard way _ 10 years of service and at least five with their current team).
Stay tuned. All of this will begin to become more clear no later than Tuesday, when other teams would be free to contact Glavine and his agent, Gregg Clifton, and start making offers.
He’s said numerous times that it’s Mets or Braves only, and Glavine would look pretty bad now if he doesn’t an about-face on that decision and decides to take a bigger, better offer from some team far away from his family’s home at the Country Club of the South.
And I don’t think he will. I think he’s sincere when he says it’ll be Braves or Mets. But when he says it’s 50-50, that might be wishful thinking on his part.
While I do believe he would take significantly less money to come back and finish his career with the Braves, I’m not so sure Glavine would trust the Braves without a no-trade clause. Not after the ugly negotiations with the team in 2002, and the subsequent mention of private moments his family shared with Schuerholz in Schuerholz’s book last spring (Glavine was irked by that).
Bottom line, too: The Mets need him worse than the Braves, who already have a rotation nearly complete with Smoltz, Tim Hudson, Mike Hampton and Chuck James.
There are rumors the Braves might trade Horacio Ramirez or Hudson. Ramirez, yes, I believe they’ll trade in a heartbeat if they get a good offer.
But Hudson? I don’t think so. Not now. Not with prices soaring for pitching. I think that Hudson/Texas rumor is more speculation than anything, from those who see Hudson’s relatively disappointing performance in two seasons with the Braves, and his backloaded contract that really gets pricey in 2008, and assume the payroll-conscious Braves would be ready to move him.
Fact is, the Braves have placed a priority on rebuilding their pitching staff this winter, and they’d open a hole by trading Hudson, who is only 31, gives you more than 200 innings a year, and could certainly rebound to win 15-18 games if he’s serious about his return-to-basics offseason workout regimen. He got more comfortable with pitching coach Roger McDowell as the season progressed, as did most other Braves pitchers in their first year working with McDowell.
Of course, he might not rebound. Hudson might be on an early career decline. But are the Braves ready to gamble on that? I doubt. Not without getting a lot in returning in a trade.
Given where the pitching market is going, with talk of more than $10 mill a year for Vicente Padilla and perhaps $18 million a year for Barry Zito, can the Braves afford to trade Hudson, then have him return to form of the guy who was the winningest pitcher in the AL over a five-year span, and who has shown flashes of brilliance during his time with the Braves? He’ll make $6 mill in 2007, then $13 mill in each of the 2008-09 seasons, with a $12 million option for 2010 and mere $1 mill buyout.
Hudson also got a $10 mill bonus when he signed his four-year $47 mill extension with the Braves, and that’s prorated over the contract for payroll purposes (I know some of our bloggers like to put together your own payroll calculations to figure out how much the Braves are spending, so don’t forget that bonus for your home accounting).
My gut feeling: 2B Marcus Giles will definitely be traded this winter. Lefty Horacio Ramirez probably will be traded, and former No. 1 pitching prospect Kyle Davies might also be included in a package if a team really wants him; Davies won’t be a deal-breaker for the Braves if another team wants him bad enough.
They’ll use trades of Giles, Ramirez and perhaps a couple of strong prospects, infielders or maybe even top-prospect catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia, to fill most of their needs _ including at least two relievers, and perhaps a leadoff man who plays second base or left field, and yes, maybe another starter _ since the free-agent market appears too expensive for a team with an $80 mill payroll.
Oh, and that payroll, I’m told, probably can’t increase until the sale of the team is finalized, because Time Warner and Liberty Media have surely agreed to certain terms that include expectations of what payroll they’re inheriting, etc.
Anyway … it’s early. Stay tuned. Oh, and did we mention Andruw isn’t being shopped? Let’s throw that in there again. As of right now, the Braves have no intention of trading him or even shopping him. That won’t stop other teams from expressing interest, and the Braves aren’t going to hang up the phone if the White Sox or someone calls. But it’d be very surprising if the CF is traded….
Now, the important stuff: Rented two very good movies last week, “The King,” a gothic tale starring William Hurt (who’s phenomenal in the role) as a Baptist preacher in Texas whose family is torn apart when his son-out-of-wedlock, named Elvis, makes a surprising return upon his release from the Navy, and “The Devil and Daniel Johnston,” about the seriously messed-up artist/musician, which the NY Daily News aptly described as “a harrowing, hilarious and ultimately moving documentary film.” Great stuff. Disturbing, but great.
I’ve spent enough money at Tower’s going-out-of-business sale to put them back in business. Latest bounty at the slash-and-burn sale (they’re down to 40 percent off CDs now) was The Jam’s “Sound Affects” and seven blues and/or jazz CDs including Coltrane’s “Lush Life,” two by guitar god Albert King, and two by Nina Simone. I’d advise anyone in the Atlanta area to get over to the Tower store in Buckhead. Still plenty of great CDs and DVDs, and they’re getting more in all the time from their warehouses (since the entire chain is going under, they’re getting rid of everything).
Only new _ or rather, recently released _ CDs I got are two really good ones Lucero’s “Rebels, Rogues and Sworn Brothers,” former Wilco member Jay Bennett’s “The Magnificent Defeat.”…
Oh, did anyone see “The Office” this week? Best episode ever, possibly? I was on the floor, laughing. Now that NBC is putting My Name is Early, The Office, Scrumbs and 30 Rock on the same night, Thursday will finally be a must-see comedy night again. All great shows.
