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Thursday, November 9, 2006
Giles to San Diego? Not so fast
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
When San Diego surprised everyone Wednesday by trading promising young second baseman Josh Barfield to Cleveland for a top third-base prospect and a reliever, my immediate thought was: They’re clearing a spot for Marcus Giles.
Not so fast, I was told by a person I trust in San Diego. The Padres are considering Marcus and several other trade options, and might even consider bringing back free agent Mark Loretta, the second baseman they had before Barfield replaced him.
Barfield is good and might be great someday. He’s only 23, plays strong defense, and hits for average and pretty good power. But the Padres believe this third-base prospect they got from Cleveland, 25-year-old Kevin Kouzmanoff (“Kouz” for our purposes; don’t know if that’s his nickname, but it should be) is ready to step in and give them a power bat, something they were determined to add this winter.
He’s the guy who, after being brought up last season, became the first player to hit a grand slam on the first pitch he saw in the majors. This after batting a combined .379 with 22 homers and 75 RBI in 94 games between Double-A and Triple-A before his September callup. Point is, he’s good.
The other guy they got, 25-year-old reliever Andrew Brown, was out of options with Cleveland (don’t let anyone tell you options aren’t important to preserve as long as possible). He was more a throw-in part of this deal; Kouz was the key.
Anyway, as for Giles, the Padres might possibly be downplaying their need to get a second baseman right away _ they keep saying there’s a glut and they can get one later _ because they’re posturing and want to the Braves or another team to trade them one straight-up for Scott Linebrink, the reliever that San Diego seems to be pumping up in order to trade him.
The Padres talk about him as though Linebrink is as valuable as a decent starting pitcher, like he’s worth more than any other setup man and blah blah blah. I’m not seeing what they’re trying to sell. He’s good, granted. Real good. But he’s a setup guy and hasn’t really shown the ability to be a closer if that’s what was needed later.
And look at his numbers last season, how they tailed off right about the time the Braves were talking to the Padres and they Padres were trying to get Wilson Betemit (San Diego claims they wouldn’t trade Linebrink for Betemit, straight up, but I don’t think that’s the case.)
Linebrink was 6-2 with a 2.62 ERA and .199 opponents’ average in 42 appearances through July 17, but 1-2 with a 4.94 ERA and .299 opponents’ average in 31 games the rest of the way. Huge difference.
While his save opportunities have generally come in less-than-favorable conditions (often the case for saves with setup guys or middle guys), it’s worth noting he’s blown 19 of 22 career save opportunities, including 9 of 11 last season.
As for Giles, there’s supposedly mixed opinions among Padres executives, some of whom believe that having two of the, uh, colorful Giles brothers in one clubhouse might be one too many.
Others believe Marcus might take a significant discount to sign a multi-year extension with the hometown Padres, and that playing alongside his brother might rejuvenate his performance.
He could make about $5.5 mill or more next season as a fifth-year arbitration guy, but might possibly take less on the front end of a multi-year deal with escalating salaries. Still, he’s not going to be cheap, by any means. He’s one of the best all-around 2Bs in the game, or at least was until last season.
There are concerns or raised eyebrows, however you want to put it, about his reduced power numbers and OPS. He’s too young to be on the downside, but he simply wasn’t the threat last year that he’s been in the past.
I wrote this on the last blog, but I think it’s worth repeating here. After checking his stats, it’s interesting to note how relatively poor his performance has been at NL West venues:
At San Diego’s Petco Park, he’s hit .209 (9-for-43) with one double, no homers, two RBIs, 12 K and a .510 OPS in 10 games.
At Colorado’s Coors Field, he’s hit .221 (17-for-77) with five doubles, two homers, six RBIs and a .667 OPS in 19 games.
At Arizona’s Chase Field (formerly Bank One Ballpark), he’s hit .227 (10-for-44) with no extra-base hits and a .585 OPS in 13 games.
And at Dodger Stadium he’s hit .255 (14-for-55) with two doubles, one RBI and a .630 OPS in 15 games. Obviously, these are relatively small samples, but oddly these have been four of his worst NL parks.
He’s been better at the other current NL West park, San Francisco’s AT&T (formerly Pac Bell) _ .273 (15-for-55) with one homer, two RBIs and an .803 OPS in 16 games. But still not anywhere near his best.
Coincidence or not, it’s interesting that he simply hasn’t performed well on the West Coast. The exception is San Diego’s old stadium, Qualcomm (formerly Jack Murphy; man do I hate all the name changes), where he hit .471 (8-for-17) with three doubles, a homer and seven RBIs in 6 games.
Maybe the team that should be going after him is the Chicago Cubs _ he’s hit .389 (21-for-54) with seven extra-base hits (two homers), 14 RBIs and a 1.070 OPS in 14 games at Wrigley, and .323 with 10 extra-base hits (four homers) and a 1.020 OPS at Milwaukee’s Miller Park, and .367 with a .997 OPS at Pittsburgh’s PNC Park…
The only place in the Central where he hasn’t ranked is is Houston’s Minute Maid, where he’s hit .231 (9-for-31) with two RBIs and a 12 K in 11 games.
Anybody notice a pattern? The notoriously hard-swinging Giles has his worst numbers at the NL’s most hitter-friendly parks _ Coors, Minute Maid and whatever they’re calling Arizona’s place this season. Coincidence, or changing approach and swinging for the fences in the homer-friendly places?
Anyway, it’ll be interesting to see how this San Diego thing plays out, and whether they’re just posturing about the glut of 2Bs so they can try to get Giles for less than the Braves are asking. The one thing I was told by someone with the Braves is that teams seem ready to make moves earlier this year, perhaps as soon as next week during the GM meetings and well before next month’s Winter Meetings.
Stay tuned.
