Braves

By Chris McAndrew

October 30, 2006 04:07 PM | Link to this

Jarrod Saltalamacchia will probably switch to first base, come to the Braves and catch fire then get traded as soon as he demands to be paid what he wants and will command for his work. With the Braves refusing to up the payroll they won’t be a playoff team for many years. Andruw probably going soon and others will I’m sure follow.

By mike

October 30, 2006 04:09 PM | Link to this

With an 80M payroll our future is dependant on developing and playing young players and not giving veterans 20M a year contracts. In other words, keep and play the youngsters and let the Jones’ (plural) go.

By me

October 30, 2006 04:15 PM | Link to this

Move Jarrod to left field. I hear he has quite the arm. Dale Murphy made the transition as well all Kelly Johnson and I am sure a bunch others recently.

By glorydays

October 30, 2006 04:21 PM | Link to this

There is not doubt the Braves can win with an 80M payroll, what they can not do is win year after year anymore and really that is not to be expected of anyone anymore, including the Yankees. I think the Braves fans showed that winning with essentially the same core gets boring. The Braves are the first team in history to prove that.

By KC

October 30, 2006 04:27 PM | Link to this

“If the Mets sign Soriano and either Zito or Schmidt the Mets will probably win the division again. The braves season depends on Hudson, Hampton and an improved bullpen. I think even if all those parts fall into place you’d be playing for a wild card.”

METS 2007

I agree with you… the Braves season will depend on Hudson and Hampton. That’s why I feel good about it.

MIKE HAMPTON: Doctors insist that it takes a full 18 months (a mark Hampton will reach in March) to FULLY recover from Tommy John surgery. Most players return after only 12 months, and struggle in their first 3-6 months back as a result. There is now a 90% success rate for pitchers returning from Tommy John surgery. “Success” according to Dr. James Andrews, is defined as a pitcher throwing at 100% as of the 18 month (post-surgery) mark. Given the facts, it’s hard to call Hampton a “question mark”.

TIM HUDSON: Contrary to popular belief, Hudson just suffered the first bad season of his career (the 3.53 and 3.52 ERA he post in ‘04/’05 ranked him in the top 15% of MLB starters both seasons). I went back and looked at the career numbers of every pitcher to finish top-10 in MLB in ERA over the last 20 years, and here’s what I found… There were numerous instances of something very similar to the odd season Hudson just turned in. Pitchers like Roger Clemens, John Smoltz, and others had bad seasons in the middle of their prime for no apparent reason. They just had a year where they were “out of sync” as Hudson was this year. In every single instance that I found, they bounced back with a very strong season the following year.

Hudson’s still fairly young, and hasn’t lost any of his stuff or velocity. I agree with you that Huddy’s a question mark… but I think not a very big one. Odds are he bounces right back.

THE BULLPEN is already improved. First of all, if the Braves had signed Wickman last winter (as they almost did), they would have finished with over 90 wins this season. It should also be noted that the Braves have some good young arms in the bullpen. The problem was that these kids were completely green and just weren’t ready to be the point-men in a pennant race. However, guys like Macay McBride (1.98 ERA from July 16th on), and Tyler Yates (2.70 ERA as Braves setup man in September) have got that experience now. Unfortunately, that experience came at the cost of the 2006 season as their early rookie struggles hurt the team’s chances… but the ’06 loss is their ’07 gain. Chad Paronto finished the year with a solid 3.18 ERA. So there’s 4 key pieces already in place. But you can also bet your life on JS adding another core piece or two to this bullpen. This bullpen will be solid next year. Count on it.

“I think even if all those parts fall into place you’d be playing for a wild card”

Are you really saying this with a straight face??? Do really think that if Hudson and Hampton are both pitching as they are capable, along with Smoltz, James, & Ramirez, a solid bullpen, and an offense that was already the best in the NL this season… the Braves will only be playing for a Wild Card??? Boy… check your glasses. You might need a new prescription!

By Chris McAndrew

October 30, 2006 04:49 PM | Link to this

“what they can not do is win year after year anymore and really that is not to be expected of anyone anymore, including the Yankees.” Are you kidding me? The Yankees win at least their division each and every year and that will continue as long as they continue to spend money. The Braves have very little chance of ever winning their division again as long as the Mets are spending well over 100 million a year while the Braves continue to hang out at 80 million as they have for quite a while now. The Braves have to start spending more again (as they did in the 90s with a top payroll close to the Yankees throughout the decade) in order to win more division titles.

By Hairy Bawls

October 30, 2006 04:59 PM | Link to this

The Braves will give the young tallet away just like they did when they gave away Adam Waynewright. Adam looked very well closing out the world series while the Braves couldn’t save a game if they only had to get 1 out in the 9th inning. Keep up the lousy work Braves front office management.

By ncscoots

October 30, 2006 04:59 PM | Link to this

I doubt the Braves have any intention of packaging Escobar, unless they are convinced he’ll never be able to play 2B or 3B at anytime in the future. Andrus is a horse, yes, but he’s a long way from being ready with no guarantee that he ever will be (pick any former prosepect gone bust for a cautionary tale). Escobar probably isn’t ready yet, either, and it’s too soon to designate either he or Andrus as an heir-apparent. Better to keep both until one shakes the other out, or better yet, move one to another position and see what happens. But as far as Salty goes? Sure, package the dude, but I doubt many other GMs are salivating over the guy. While catching prospects are valuable as trade pieces, Salty is still learning behind the plate and that makes him less attractive.

By KC

October 30, 2006 05:17 PM | Link to this

Chris McAndrew:

Repectfully… You haven’t been paying very close attention. Had the Braves started the year with Bob Wickman in the bullpen, they would have been in the NL East race most of the year and would have won the Wild Card. And that’s with half their friggin pitching staff (Mike Hampton, Horacio Ramirez, Kyle Davies, John Thompson, Blaine Boyer, John Foster) on the DL all or most of the year, and Tim Hudson turning in a career worst year. The Mets will have to re-sign Glavine, and then make at least two significant starting pitching acquisitions just to remain on par with the team Atlanta will field next season.

The Braves are able to compete right now at 80 million (vs. other 100 mill-plus teams), because there are so many bargains on this team right now. Francoeur, McCann, Chuck James, and Matt Diaz all make rookie money right now. LaRoche is eligible for arbitration and will get a healthy raise, but will still be an incredible huge bargain for a 30-HR, 90-100 RBI hitter. Boston is paying about half of Renteria’s salary, making him yet another bargain. A number of the good young arms in the bullpen… guys like McBride, Yates, Boyer, and Paronto all still make rookie money. Wickman was nearly perfect in Atlanta this year. What’s the going rate for a top-tier closer? It’s a helluva lot more than 6 million per season.

Because the Braves have so many high value-low cost pieces… they will be able to compete with teams like the Mets for at least another 2-3 years (until all the young guys start becoming arbitration/free agency eligible).

By KC

October 30, 2006 05:20 PM | Link to this

The Braves aren’t in any hurry to give away young talent. In a few years, the Braves youngsters are going to start becoming arbitration and free agency eligible. When that happens, they’re going to have to pony up to keep guys like LaRoche, McCann, Francoeur, James, and others. They’ll need low-cost young talent to fill out the rest of the roster.

By journalist jimmy smith

October 30, 2006 05:21 PM | Link to this

journalist guy curtright has saved the day for the blog. thankyoujournalist. the braves pay declining stars the big money. the young players who will become stars are sacrificed to obtain the declining stars. call it a cycle. this journalist thinks the braves should load up with pitching however they can and let the young players fight for positions. now, reese witherspoon … soon to be available. once played june carter cash - may be the right girl for dob. matchmaker jimmy smith can make the initial contact for dob. just give matchmaker the word. remember that baby seal is an effective babe magnet and can give dob seal of approval for reese. always enjoyed those peanut butter cups.

now, this journalist may soon go a huntin’ with uh, chipper jones. who from the blog will join this journalist at the double dime ranch? go to http://doubledimeranch.com/ for more information.

now, chipper is known to have high cholesterol and bad toes. together, these are most unhealthy. combine them with a huntin’ in cowboy boots and you have a superstar that may have sore foots in the spring.

By scott

October 30, 2006 05:22 PM | Link to this

Good points made earlier about managing an $80 million payroll and still trying to win. It CAN be done, as both teams in the World Series proved.

Andruw Jones MUST be traded in the off-season. A hard reality of big time sports is not what your past performance has been, it’s what you can give me now and in the future. AJ’s been the best CF’er in BB, with very consistent #’s and plays every day. But is there anyone out there who thinks he will get BETTER, and therefore deserve MORE money (like 25% of our payroll)?? NO way - at best he’ll maintain for a couple more yrs and then decline - personally I think with the added weight, etc., he’s headed for an injury. We’ve already seen what tieing up big chunks of payroll to a frequently-injured player can do (think Chipper and Hampton). This is not a scenario which screams for paying a guy $20 million yearly!! You have to trade him to get perceived value for him now. If you keep him thru next year, you lose him for a couple of draft picks only - a wasted oppportunity to get better now.

Regarding Escobar and Saltalamacchia, who knows what the future holds. I don’t think either one brings GREAT trade value right now - I’d rather see how they develop (that trade value will also improve).

I really don’t think the Braves pitching is the primary problem going into 2007. Starters: Smoltz, Hampton, Hudson, Ramirez, James, Davies (pretty strong); Relief: MacBride, Yates, Paronto, Villareal, Cormier ALL got great experience and improved as the season went along, plus you got Wickman in the closing role. BTW, everyone is forgetting Danys Baez - a damn good set-up guy - only had one bad outing and that’s as he was having an appendicitis attack. I do think we need another good lefty in the pen.

The main focus right now HAS to be to get a strong lead-off hitter. My God, Renteria bats over .300 most of the year and only has 70 or so RBI!!?? Nobody’s on base.

By 2007 Mets

October 30, 2006 06:06 PM | Link to this

KC, Lets look at alternative possibilities. What if Hudson does in 2007 what he did in 2006? What if Hampton is .500 or below in 2007? Ramirez is injury prone and isn’t reliable. These are all possibilities as well. You talk about a “solid ” bullpen as if it was good in 2006…..it wasn’t. It remains to be seen if in 2007 it will be superior to the Mets. The Mets got all the raves for their offense but people don’t realize they have 47 games won by one run. That’s of course due to their bullpen.

By oh please

October 30, 2006 06:07 PM | Link to this

Stop the payroll crying. I’m tired of listening to a bunch of spineless, gm wanna be’s b*** and moan about the payroll. Root for the Yankees if payroll is the most important factor in supporting a team. It’s been this way long enough for the issue to be settled. It’s not going to change anytime soon, get over it. Get a clue, get a job, or a hobby to take your mind off it. You sound like the equivalent to a 4 year old child pitching a tantrum because he/she didn’t get his/her way.

By The Grinch

October 30, 2006 06:21 PM | Link to this

Journalist Jimmy, I agree. Reese does have lovely cups.

Guy, much obliged for the new blog; got tired of shaving in between posts. I’m in agreement with most here; if we have to get rid of Andruw we might as well go whole hog on the reconstruction and focus on younger, cheaper players. It’ll definitely help in the long run, and maybe one day we can get an owner who cares. Time to fire up the grill and get ready for MNF. I don’t care for the Patriots or the Vikings but any football’s better than none.

By trippy

October 30, 2006 06:40 PM | Link to this

who is going to be lead off next year? what about juan p from the cubs?

By KC

October 30, 2006 06:40 PM | Link to this

METS 2007:

I never described the Braves bullpen in 2006 as “solid”. I described the Braves 2007 bullpen as solid. Yates and McBride used this season to get acclimated to the big leagues and were both throwing the ball very impressively by season’s end. Paronto finished the year with a very good 3.18 ERA. Wickman will be there from day one next season, the JS is almost certain to add another key piece or two, either by trade or by free agency.

My assertion is not that last year’s bullpen was solid (although it was at the end of the season)… my assertion is that next year’s bullpen will be very strength for the Braves.

As for the possibilities you described… sure anything’s possible. Maybe Hudson will suck again. Maybe Hampton’s arm will be just fine, but he goes out and tears a hamstring 3 weeks into the season. Those things can certainly happen, but I don’t believe they’re likely.

Tim Hudson is the guy most people seem to be divided on. For reasons I’ve already explained, I think he’ll have a strong season next year. To be more specific… I’ll lay 3-1 odds that Hudson will finish next season with 15 wins and an ERA well under 4.00.

As for Hampton, he’s somehow been hit with “injury prone” label, but last year was the first season in 9 years in which he failed to make at least 29 starts. Again, odds are slim of his having any lingering problems for the surgery after the 18 month mark.

Anything can happen. I just feel good about it because in both cases, the odds are in our favor.

By 2007 Mets

October 30, 2006 06:59 PM | Link to this

I respect your optimism KC. We’ll have to wait about 5 months to see how everything shakes out. Til then we’ll live off our if’s and maybe’s.

By stew

October 30, 2006 07:45 PM | Link to this

Anyone who wants to get rid of Andruw is totally nuts. Forget about his offensive production, Andruw makes us a strong defensive team. Don’t kid yourselves! Ya gotta spend if you want to win. Andruw’s worth every penny and he wants to stay. I’m sick of seeing all of our players exit because the owners are too cheap to pay them. How many players have we lost to free agency and how many free agents have we signed. It’s just not fair to be playing with half a loaf.

By journalist jimmy smith

October 30, 2006 08:04 PM | Link to this

grinch, nice wither spoons. now, who will go a huntin’ with this journalist at chipper’s double dime? only $15,000 to hunt with uh, chipper and once you get there you get to eat some venison stew. can also buy an autographed ball for $70 and save freight.

By The Grinch

October 30, 2006 08:21 PM | Link to this

Good god, does he really charge that much? $70 for an autographed ball is obscene enough. It’d almost be worth it (provided one could afford such a thing) to go…imagine how fun it would be to spend all day stalking a trophy buck, then watch Chipper draw down on it while you secretly light off a pack of black cats. Can you imagine the look on his face when they went off? He’d probably bust a blood vessel on his forehead.

By Stinky

October 30, 2006 08:28 PM | Link to this

METS 2007, whatever happened to NLCHAMPS? Any ideas why he slinked off into the ooze from whence he came? He, like you, seems to have an affinity for unhatched chickens.

And now the Mets are gonna get Sorianno, Zito, Schmidt, and Dontrelle. Who do you think you are, a Yankees Fan? The Mets have serious money tide up in Pedro that’ll hamstring the mets like Hampton’s done to the Braves. That anti-psychotic cocktail your doctor has you on needs to be tweaked.

By J-MAN

October 30, 2006 08:40 PM | Link to this

I got a trade propasal Giles and Salty for C.C. Sabatha and a prospect. Then trade Rameriz for some bullpen help perferibly lefty pitching

By 1 + 2 = 4

October 30, 2006 08:49 PM | Link to this

Stew, I don’t think most people want to get rid of AJ but the fact that he will cost the Braves a tremendous amount of the budget, he almost certainly must be dealt. I have always been a huge AJ fan, however, with Boras throwing out AJ’s salary demands, there is no way we can afford him. Maybe if we didn’t have Hampton and Hudson’s salaries we could shell out the money. But the truth is, you must get something for him because he is going to walk.

About Salty and Escobar, the only player I deem worthy of such a trade would be Carl Crawford (TB). Outside of this proven major leaguer, I would not dare trade these boys. And in reference to Ramirez and Hudson, trade Ramirez to an AL team that needs left handed pitching; strike while the coal is hot and throw Hudson (with his 2007 low salary) to the Yankees. Then trade AJ for starting young arms (Crawford can play CF - 305 BA - 16 3Bs - 20 2Bs - 18 HRs - 58 SBs).

By Stinky

October 30, 2006 08:49 PM | Link to this

jimmy, Reese, 30, is way too young for DOB, nearly 50. I was thinking maybe DOB could hook up with Grace Slick. Lots of history there and she’s 67 years young today.

By 2007 Mets

October 30, 2006 09:00 PM | Link to this

I have no affinity for unhatched chickens. I don’t exactly know what moves the Mets will make. I just threw some ideas from my wish list. As for the “ooze”, you’ll have to ask the braves about that since it seemed they were sitting in it all season.

By Wayne

October 30, 2006 09:08 PM | Link to this

If we can’t sign AJ SOON, he must be dealt. He might play great for another 6-8 yrs, but will probably decline as he does not seem to be capable of controlling his diet/weight. Get a SP for him then package Salty/Ramirez/Giles for Crawford.

By Troy

October 30, 2006 09:18 PM | Link to this

Here are some of my ideas for the 07’ team:

1) SIGN (yes I said sign) Giles to contract maybe 3 yrs. $18MM. Giles is still on the better side of 30 and I think that reason he struggled in 06’ was because he was trying to do to much, he altered his approach at the plate trying to adjust to hitting leadoff, if he can just relax and slide back down to the 2 hole (which I’ll address in a minute) he’ll be just fine. Two other points about Giles, I don’t see anyone in the organization who is ready to be a starter at second anytime soon, I mean Prado is definitely not the answer and I see Aybar as a good Utility guy. Also I think Giles has quietly become one of the better defensive 2B in the league.

2)TRADE Renteria to the Astros, you should be able to get Everett and Qualls (or maybe Lidge). First this does three great things for the Braves #1 it allows Giles who in my opinion is a better hitter than Renteria to go back to the 2 slot where he is much more comfortable, #2 Everett immediately improves the defense, while its true he can’t hit, he is highly regarded as the best defensive SS out there which will definitely help sinkerballers Hampton & Hudson, while Renteria wasn’t horrible Everett is a big upgrade and Houston fans would practically give him away and the Braves have a great offense so they can afford the drop off at SS # 3 Chad Qualls or Brad Lidge helps the bullpen enough said! On the Houston side I think they would love to have Edgar Renteria, he’s good for a .290/.360/.425 with 100 runs scored his power may even increase in that ballpark, and he is very familiar with those NL central opponents.

3) Get a LF who can hit leadoff, I am pretty flexible here I like the Ryan Freel for Horacio Ramirez idea, or even signing Dave Roberts, heck if we could get Carl Crawford that’d be great but I don’t see that happening. Freel probably makes the most sense if Cinncy gives him up

4) Another point that I wanted to make is that currently the Braves are committed to Renteria for 3 more years, I would rather see that commitment go to Giles who is a little younger and it doesn’t appear that anyone will be on his heels for his job like Elvis Andrus is at SS who I have heard nothing but great things about.

Lineup: 1) Ryan Freel LF 2) Marcus Giles 2B 3) Chipper Jones 3B 4) Andruw Jones CF 5) Brian McCann C 6) Jeff Francouer Rf 7) Adam LaRoche 1B 8) Adam Everett SS

Let me know what ya’ll think

By Stinky

October 30, 2006 09:25 PM | Link to this

207mets, the Braves were mired down in red clay. The ooze that you’re fromis is found only in nuclear waste disposal facilities, New Jersey septic tanks, and Shea Stadium.

By The Grinch

October 30, 2006 09:40 PM | Link to this

Troy, that’s a fairly sound (and refreshing) viewpoint, but that’d be overpaying Giles by about 3-4 mill. I agree though; he’s solid offensively and defensively, and as I said all last season the spot he was hitting in was his entire problem. It doesn’t make any kind of sense, but it was true nonetheless. Every single time he got put back in #2 (even for a game or two) he caught fire. That’s just his comfort zone. I think he’s a better overall player than Renteria and has more years left. Only question I have involves his durability. He plays so gung-ho he’s almost always hurt to some degree.

By Troy

October 30, 2006 10:07 PM | Link to this

Does anyone think it might be a good idea to make a strong push towards getting Carl Crawford, I don’t know his contract status but if we were able to have him under contract for a few years it would probably help ease the blow of losing Andruw.

My take on the Andruw situation, I think everyone involved (Front Office, Bobby, Andruw, and fans) excluding Scott Boras wants Andruw to stay in ATL, but it just won’t likely happen. Boras, as much as I can’t stand him does his job well, he is paid to get his clients as much money as possible and there will be plenty of teams who will pay $20 million/year for a gold glove CF who drives in 115+ runs. Scott will price the Braves out of the equation, its a sad story.

By mike

October 30, 2006 10:32 PM | Link to this

everyone wants to trade andruw but he is a 10/5 man now…and can veto any trade and said he will do so this year

By Chris McAndrew

October 30, 2006 10:54 PM | Link to this

Troy Scott is not pricing the Braves out…the Braves are pricing themselves out. Attendence is up, but the Braves aren’t willing to spend more than the $80 million they’ve been stuck at for a long long time now. Costs go up every year in just about any business with raises and costs of good going up. But somehow the Braves have DECREASED THEIR PAYROLL from what it was about a decade ago until now. That’s no formula for success. Think what J.S. could do with this team if the payroll would have been increasing just a few million each year for the past several years.

By Chris McAndrew

October 30, 2006 10:58 PM | Link to this

One other thing…do you guys not remember when the Braves did have a payroll similar to the Yankees and other top-spending teams back in the 90s?? The Braves were in the World Series in 1991, 1992, 1995 (world champs), 1996 and 1999. That’s FIVE World Series appearances for the Braves in the 90s. How many times since then have they been back to the World Series (and since around the time payroll began to drop off) oh yeah…ZERO.

By TheNorthernMuleDeer

October 30, 2006 11:36 PM | Link to this

I have never seen anyone so enamored with someone as jimmy smith is with DOB and claim not to be gay! Who is this jimmy smith, and who is this Stinky? Seems they’re in competition to see which one is the biggest imbecile. We already know that DOB is the biggest prik!

By gotigers72

October 31, 2006 12:10 AM | Link to this

IMO, the Braves should have learned their lesson about trading top prospects by watching Adam Wainwright dominate in the playoffs. Does he have some good stuff or what? If they are going to trade Saltalamacchia, they better be overwhelmed by a trade, and be sure that the guy they trade for is gonna stay more than one year like Mr. Drew did.

JS has definitely taken teams in trades, but he GOT taken in the Wainwright/Marquis/King for Drew deal. If even one of those we traded for Drew worked out, it was a good deal for the Cardinals because we only had Drew for a year. I don’t think LaRussa liked Drew’s approach to the game anyhow. Tons of talent, but no passion for the game. At least that is what I read somewhere.

By Calvin

October 31, 2006 01:44 AM | Link to this

I don’t see the Mets being as good as they were this year. Why?

1. Just about everyone in their lineup had career years. You can’t expect that to happen in back to back years.

2. Their rotation will be extremely shaky unless they go out and sign Zito and/or Schimdt. I’m not sure they can do that tho.

3. Tom Glavine is pushing 41. Although he pitched great in the playoffs and the better part of 06, you can’t expect him to be the anchor of your rotation. Maybe a nice 2 or 3 starter.

4. The Braves will be improved because they will have a better bullpen and better starting pitching. People forget that the Bravos had the 2nd best offense in the NL and that is without a true leadoff guy. If they fill that need and/or the LF position(I am not totally sold that Diaz is the best person for that job), then they will score a ton of runs again in 07. Add that with a healthy Chipper Jones, Andruw being Andruw, a consistent LaRoche, McCann having another good year, Frenchy becoming more patient and selective, and Renteria doing what he does, there is no doubt in my mind that they can score 1000 runs or more in 07.

By The Grinch

October 31, 2006 02:08 AM | Link to this

Interesting. In that latest violent crime report that has Atlanta ranked No. 17, St. Louis is No. 1 and Detroit is No. 2. Perhaps if we get more violent as a city we’ll have a better chance at the WS. Night, all.

By METSMAN

October 31, 2006 02:57 AM | Link to this

Yo homies ! your braves stunk and they will stink again , my Metro boys are goona kick yo behinds , holla !! you might as well trade all them overpriced aging veterans and rebuild cause you aint got a snowballs chance in hell of competing wit my BOYS !!

By Stinky

October 31, 2006 03:07 AM | Link to this

METSBOY, my Metro boys are goonas. Yes they are

By Andy

October 31, 2006 04:10 AM | Link to this

Troy—Giles would likly not accept 3 years 18 million—renteria is the perfect number 2 hitter in the game—we have plenty of options at 2nd—not really at short. So, my thoughts are no if the braves are going to spend 18 million on a player—I say renteria will be better than giles—Giles gets injured alot with his playing style. I am a big giles fan—but I think if the braves are going to sign a “big” money player—either pitching or Andruw period. Diaz I think will be great—but I really think we’ll have Juan Pierre—I don’t want that-but it seems like the way. I am not sure but I think Jason Schmit might do a deal like hudson—with alot of the money at the end—-Smotlz and Jason will pitch 200 plus innings—ease the load on the pen—Hampton will be good then Hudson bounces back and James keeps going up. I like dreaming. You may be right about Giles—but with all of this infield talent—it seems they have to let him go and get a reliever or something.

How about a trade to NY: Giles, davies and Andruw(he agrees because he sign a 200 dollar contract extention or something crazy) for A-rod and Gary S.—the yankees agree to pay half of whats left on A-rod’s contract-meaning the braves play him 6 to 7 million a year(well worth it) AND half of the Shefiled—meaning 6.5 million. A-rod plays left—Francour in center—Gary in right—Chipper, rent, escobar(whoever) and Laroache, and McCann. Pretty darn good line up. The yankees don’t want to get in a bidding war for Jones—they need a second baseman like giles—hitting 9th(amazing)—they need the young pitching in Davies. The Yankees could eat 24-30 million of A-rod contract and not blink—they have paid palvono and wright so far like 30 million and have gotten nothing for it(and have 30 more to go)—drop 30 to get Andruw in his prime for 7-8 years-yeah they could do that. It would save the braves payroll this year—sheff and a-rod would be around 13 million and thats as much as the braves were paying for Andruw. Like in the renteria deal and the hampton deal some one else would be paying for half the salery—in this case with a-rod two thirds—then that would free up the possibilty of sign a back ended deal for a pitcher like Jason Schmit. I know the odds of me winning the 750 million lottery and ANY of this taking place are about the same. But it is early in the morning..at least this is not another post from a heart broken mets as#####—I say as###### because if you come on a braves board to talk smack—I hope horrible things for your family—if they can find them in Jersey City.

By Thomas

October 31, 2006 07:30 AM | Link to this

KC, your finally agreeing on what i said in another block.

If the Mets sign Zito and also add Soriano, the braves have to tune it up.

• Braves Trade.. Jarod Saltamachia, Scott Thorman, Yunel Escobar, Horacio Ramirez, and Marcus Giles for Carl Crawford, Scott Kazmir, and 2 prospects.
• Resign Darryl Ward, and that is it.
• Sign from free agency Mark Derrosa, to play second.

• Walaa

• LF Carl Crawford

• SS Edgar Renteria
• 3B Chipper Jones
• CF Andruw Jones
• C Brian McCann
• RF Jeff Franceour
• 1B Adam Laroche
• 2B Mark Derrosa
• P Pitcher

By Shaun

October 31, 2006 07:39 AM | Link to this

Braves Trade.. Jarod Saltamachia, Scott Thorman, Yunel Escobar, Horacio Ramirez, and Marcus Giles for Carl Crawford, Scott Kazmir, and 2 prospects.

No way the Rays give up Kazmir unless they get another young pitcher more talented…not going to happen.

By Shaun

October 31, 2006 07:51 AM | Link to this

I definetly don’t think the Braves should move Saltalamacchia right now unless someone blows them away with a trade offer (probably not going to happen).

As far as comparing a possible Salty trade to the Wainwright trade, it’s not even close to the same thing. Pitching prospects almost always flame out or get injured. Hitting prospects almost always make at least something of themselves. Salty’s even more valuable because he’s a catcher. Trading Salty in a similar deal would be a horrible mistake.

By BravesFaninRockies

October 31, 2006 08:32 AM | Link to this

Since DOB’s taking his postseason sabbatical, we may not get an answer from Guy. Here’s a go, anyway:

What are the chances that Kelly Johnson could be part of the mix as a leadoff/LF in 2007? You probably want a more reliable Plan A, but the guy has a sweet swing and he can really get on base. Plus, he gets the ML minimum or not much more. As Option 2, there’s Dave Roberts or Scott Podsednik (who could be had for cheap from the ChiSox).

Still need to trade Andruw, and I would like to see a sign-and-trade with the Cards for Edmonds considered.

By Stinky

October 31, 2006 08:38 AM | Link to this

I can’ place TheNorthernMuleDeer. It sounds strangely familiar.

Wikipedia: The Mule Deer (Odocoileus hemionus) is a deer whose habitat is in the western half of North America. It gets its name from its large mule-like ears.

I wonder who this “NMD” could be? He sounds rather juvenile. I’ll label him as: Harmless.

By Troy

October 31, 2006 08:52 AM | Link to this

Andy, First of all why would think that the yankees would trade A-Rod and Sheff for Andruw, Giles, and Davies.

The Yanks have a loaded outfield already, they signed Damon to that fat contract just last offseason, they have matsui, and they have abreu for one more season, If they really do want AJ they won’t trade Rodriguez to get him they will simply wait until he is a free agent and out bid everyone else for him that is if they want him.

Another thing in case you don’t actually follow baseball the yankees already have a fantastic hitting 2B named ROBINSON CANO and he is making the league minimum, so stop assuming that Brian Cashmann is an idoit he Will not make a trade like that!

By Shaun

October 31, 2006 08:55 AM | Link to this

What are the chances that Kelly Johnson could be part of the mix as a leadoff/LF in 2007? You probably want a more reliable Plan A, but the guy has a sweet swing and he can really get on base. Plus, he gets the ML minimum or not much more. As Option 2, there’s Dave Roberts or Scott Podsednik (who could be had for cheap from the ChiSox).

What’s wrong with Matt Diaz? Of course not as a leadoff hitter but as the primary leftfielder. Renteria or Giles could hit leadoff (unless Giles is traded). I wouldn’t pay the over $2 million it would take to get Podsednik or Roberts if I already had a suitable leftfielder in Diaz. The Braves offense was second in the league in runs, and no one should decline significantly. I don’t think it’s necessary to overspend on hitters.

Still need to trade Andruw, and I would like to see a sign-and-trade with the Cards for Edmonds considered.

I don’t think you can do sign-and-trades in baseball. I think you have to wait until after a certain date before trading someone you sign in the offseason for some reason. But, I hope the Braves wouldn’t trade Andruw for Jim Edmonds. If they trade AJ, I hope it’s for several quality young players.

By Shaun

October 31, 2006 09:04 AM | Link to this

Andy and Troy,

Also, why would the Braves want to trade Davies when one of the guys they’d be getting would be ready to retire by the time Davies peaks and the other doesn’t have a position with the Braves. (ARod is not a leftfielder. His skills would be wasted there.)

By Troy

October 31, 2006 09:22 AM | Link to this

I never said I would trade davies, nor did I say i want A-Rod

By Shaun

October 31, 2006 09:39 AM | Link to this

Sorry, Troy.

Andy,

Also, why would the Braves want to trade Davies when one of the guys they’d be getting would be ready to retire by the time Davies peaks and the other doesn’t have a position with the Braves. (ARod is not a leftfielder. His skills would be wasted there.)

By Steve

October 31, 2006 09:54 AM | Link to this

I think the role of the leadoff hitter is overrated anyway, but the only guys out there I’d be willing to pay good money to do it would be Crawford or Soriano, and Soriano isn’t coming here. I think they should give Prado and Aybar a chance at leadoff (Aybar had great walk totals in the minors) if they can’t get Crawford, who could solve both leadoff and left field. If they couldn’t do that they should stick with Diaz, who can obviously hit better than Langerhans and try to work on the pitching.

By Lew

October 31, 2006 10:01 AM | Link to this

Are we doomoed to the same irrational trade proposals for the rest of the season. When is everyone going to realize that the chances of trading Andruw are so slim as to be negligible? He has said repeatedly and his hard-a$$ agent has also said that he will not accept a trade. He does not want to play in a cold city, so Andy, he will not accept a trade to the Yankees. Not to mention that everything Troy said about your proposed Andruw trade is absolutely correct. They don’t need Andruw this year. They have too many outfielders as it is. Why would we want to trade him for Shef who will be gone in a year. We wouldn’t resign him. We also don’t need ARod as long as we have Renteria at short. He won’t replace Chipper, so short would be the only place to play ARod. As far as Schmidt-He hates pitching in Atlanta. He pitches lousy in Atlanta. Look at the game he pitched in Atl. this past season-he was shelled. Thomas-Would you please just give up on the Crawford and Kazmir thing? There is no way the Rays will give up either one. They want pitching. Kazmir is still cheap. Why would they trade him? Crawford is still realy cheap, too. They could not replace him for the same money and unless they are blown away with an offer of pitching (and we couldn’t make them happy in this regard) they will keep him. He is a major cog in their hoped for machine. You want to sign DeRosa as a free agent because he had one good year? Not at the poutrageous price that one year will command with all the rich loonies out there. Same with Matthews Jr. People will way overpay. So let’s repeat here. Andruw stays a Brave, at least for 07. Crawford will not play in Atlanta (and he does not bat leadoff). We really don’t want Jim Edmonds as a replacement. He is old, often injured and could not carry Andruw’s athletic socks. Schmidt is not the pitcher for the Braves. Look to trade Giles to the Indians or Padres. For pitching. Got that? We need pitching. If we get pitching, it doesn’t matter who the Mets sign.

By Troy

October 31, 2006 10:03 AM | Link to this

Steve, I agree with you that the leadoff role i ssomewhat overrated, however with a team that strikes out as much the braves, a guy who gets on base at the top of the lineup changes the whole dynamic of the team. Its not hard to forget just how valuable Rafael Furcal was to this team, The braves should definitely address the leadoff spot, as well as the pitching situaiton

By KC

October 31, 2006 10:35 AM | Link to this

“KC, your finally agreeing on what i said in another block. If the Mets sign Zito and also add Soriano, the braves have to tune it up.”

Thomas:

Actually, I’m not sure adding Soriano and Zito would get it done for the Mets… mainly because Zito alone wouldn’t be enough to fix their starting pitching problems. Barry Zito has a 4.04 ERA over the last 3 seasons. Now, that’s well above average these days (especially in the American League), but is that the ERA of an “ace”?

The way I see it, the addition of Barry Zito would give them a rotation with two #2 starters at the top, followed by Maine, O.Perez, someone filling in for Pedro until he returns in the 2nd half of the season (and keep in mind that Pedro might not a 100% at ANY point next season). Let’s keep in mind that Glavine (assuming they re-sign him) will be 42 years old. Last year his ERA was just under 4.00. Can he match that? Better that? Even if they do add Zito, their work still isn’t done. They would need to add at least one more solid starter.

Right now, the Braves have a slight offensive edge on the Mets, and that sedge will be strengthened if the Braves can acquire a solid leadoff hitter. If the Mets were to add Soriano, that would obviously swing the balance offensively, but I think the Braves pitching staff would still look better if Zito is all they add to their pitching staff. My guess is the Mets are going to allocate about 25 million to bolster the rotation, so the only way the Mets will make a run at Soriano is if they are willing to bring their payroll up in the 135 million range, which they may very well be willing to.

In the end though, I’m sure they will add at least 2 starters to this rotation, and their starting pitching will be solid… not great, but solid. IF (and this is a huge if) Pedro can come back at 100% for the stretch run, the Mets could have an excellent rotation by season’s end (assuming they add Zito or Schmidt plus another solid starter).

Frankly, I don’t think the Braves have all that much work to do. I thing signing Steve Kline and Pierre or Dave Roberts would get it done. The Mets definitely have more work to do than the Braves. Unfortunately, they’ve got the resources to do it. We’ll just have to wait and see who they add.

By Stinky

October 31, 2006 10:38 AM | Link to this

Lew, good post. You’ve got more patience bothering to read all this conjecture than I do. I’ll drink a beer in your honor some time this week. Can’t wait till the stove gets hot and real rumors start percolating. But until then, I guess we’re stuck with the same ol’ …

By Shaun

October 31, 2006 10:40 AM | Link to this

Tony and Steve,

Strikeouts are bad because they’re outs, but they aren’t any worse than other outs. The Braves only made outs in 66.3 percent of their plate appearances, good for 6th lowest in the National League. The Braves rarely had an offense that good when Furcal was hitting leadoff. Sure a leadoff hitter with speed and on-base skill is nice, but not necessary. That Braves should not overpay for a leadoff hitter, in terms of money or giving up quality young players. Pitching was the real problem.

By rammerjammer

October 31, 2006 10:57 AM | Link to this

Due to previously stated economic issues, Giles and Ramirez have priced themselves out of Atlanta’s top-heavy budget, so they’re almost certainly gone. Don’t see any others being dealt.

All indications are that BC is very comfortable with Prado at 2B, and also no concerns, apparently, about LF and/or leadoff for the short term.

I would think JS will address adding another starter to replace Ramirez, and also adding OF help with the assumption that AJ won’t return after 2007. The OF help could be in the form of a minor leaguer, someone not needed for a couple of years (e.g., Cleveland’s Trevor Crowe).

By BravesFaninRockies

October 31, 2006 11:08 AM | Link to this

Shaun,

The problem with Diaz is that he might be the worst defensive outfielder since Lonnie Smith … or Chris Duncan. You can hide a butcher in the field for only so long. And IMO, the team needs somebody at the top of the lineup with a decent OBP; Diaz is as impatient as Frenchy, which is not good for a top-of-the-lineup guy.

Also, for whatever reason, Renteria has never hit well in the leadoff spot. He seems like an ideal #2 guy, so why mess up a good thing?

The reason for working out a deal for Edmonds is that no one else I see out there is available or affordable who could bring you a middle-of-the-order hitter and stellar defense in center field, at least for one more season. (And yes, I know, he’s about to be 37.)

By Troy

October 31, 2006 11:13 AM | Link to this

While I agree with everyone that pitching was a HUGE problem for the team in 06’ it was mostly injury related

I think 07’ might work itself out

Starting Rotation: Smoltz- What can you say bad about this guy he’s a horse even at 39 years old, A TRUE ACE Hudson- He’s kind of a mystery, I mean he has a great track record but hasn’t done much in a Braves Uniform, Hope for the best Hampton- Everyone is down on him but who knows he might be effective James- This kid looks great Davies- Everybody loves this guy I’m not sure what to expect Ramirez- Quality pitcher who may bring something in a trade, if not traded then he provides good depth in a solid rotation

Bullpen Wickman- He’s not amazing by any means but he gets the job done and a HUGE upgrade from the Reitsma/Sosa debacle Yates- Bobby loves this guy and thats enough for me Boyer- This guy can pitch if he is healthy Devine- This guy can pitch if he can harness his talent McBride- He’ll only get better

I think that the pitching is a lot better off than most people think maybe add two solid veteran relievers, but who knows Schuerholz promised to be active this winter, so this should get exciting!

By journalist jimmy smith

October 31, 2006 11:17 AM | Link to this

Roses is red,

Violets is blue,

DOB is a homo,

And jimmy smith too!

By nathan

October 31, 2006 11:30 AM | Link to this

Chris McAndrew Said:

The Braves have very little chance of ever winning their division again as long as the Mets are spending well over 100 million a year while the Braves continue to hang out at 80 million as they have for quite a while now.

You mean like how the Twins or Tigers had no shot against the Big Payroll White Sox? All that MONEY Boston spent really helped them didn’t it? When are you people going to learn that the dollars a team spend have NOTHING TO DO WITH HOW THAT TEAM DOES!!!!!!! Those players that make all that money still have to perform, don’t they? I mean open your frickin eyes and look at the stats. HOW IN THE HELL did Chuck James outplay Tim Hudson? He makes like 5 percent of the money as him, that just doesn’t make sence to me? Or how does a 2nd year player making the league minimum (McCann, Francoeur) outplay our HOF 3rd baseman? I DON’T GET IT!

Scouting, developing, playing the right players, benching the ones that aren’t performing or can’t stay healthy.

Repeat after me.

*Scouting, developing, playing the right players, benching the ones that aren’t performing or can’t stay healthy.

Repeat after me.*

Repeat after me.

*Scouting, developing, playing the right players, benching the ones that aren’t performing or can’t stay healthy.

Repeat after me.*

Repeat after me.

*Scouting, developing, playing the right players, benching the ones that aren’t performing or can’t stay healthy.

Repeat after me.*

Repeat after me.

*Scouting, developing, playing the right players, benching the ones that aren’t performing or can’t stay healthy.

Repeat after me.*

CAN YOU HEAR ME NOW??

By Shaun

October 31, 2006 11:55 AM | Link to this

The problem with Diaz is that he might be the worst defensive outfielder since Lonnie Smith … or Chris Duncan. You can hide a butcher in the field for only so long. And IMO, the team needs somebody at the top of the lineup with a decent OBP; Diaz is as impatient as Frenchy, which is not good for a top-of-the-lineup guy.

Diaz drew 11 walks in 123 games. Francouer drew 23 in 162 games. So it doesn’t look like Diaz is very disciplined. But Diaz didn’t strikout as much, which led to a .364 OBP as opposed to a .293 OBP. Diaz made an out in 63.6 percent of his plate appearances, while Francouer made an out in 70.7 percent of his plate apperances.

Diaz had a good OBP, so he would be okay in the leadoff spot. And batting order is overrated. Arranging your lineup the “right” way is only worth a handful of runs a year. Who’s in the lineup is much more important than where they hit.

By Greg in TN

October 31, 2006 12:06 PM | Link to this

I’m with you, Lew… As many trade scenarios that are flying around out there, the bottom line is Andruw is a 10/5 guy and he wants to stay here, period.

Chris, I know you aren’t saying that just throwing money into the payroll would fix all of the problems (at least I hope that’s the case).

The Mets have spent over $93 million per season in payroll since 2001 and are only now picking up any hardware for their efforts. For crying out loud, the Yankees haven’t been to a World Series since 2000. Up until this year, we’ve accomplished that with a much lower payroll.

You are right in that the Braves were among the league leaders in payroll in the 90s, but look at the payrolls in that time frame and you’ll see that the total spent went from $20.4 mil in ‘91 to $75 mil in ‘99. The rate of inflation is no where near the rate that payrolls have escalated. Keep in mind that St Louis and Detroit made the fall classic this year with payrolls of $88 and $82 million respectively.

Now, would I like to see a little flexibility in the payroll? Sure, I think everyone does, but adding the kind of money to the payroll that has been done in NYC, Boston and LA is no guarantee that we’d even make the playoffs, much less the World Series.

By Lew

October 31, 2006 12:06 PM | Link to this

Rammer-You speak sense, as usual. JS will get rid of Ramirez (if you can’t trade him, non-tender him)-we need the money and though he has pitched well at times, he has missed WAY too much time and the $4 million+ he would get in arbitration makes him way too expensive for taking a chance. Get what we can, or let him go. The Cleveland deal may be workable. Braves Fan In Rockies- Andruw will NOT be dealt, so we have no need of Edmonds this year. As far as 08 if Andruw leaves, we can use the $13.5 million from Andruw’s salary and do MUCH better than Edmonds. He’s old, he gets hurt a lot and will be way too expensive for someone of his age and ability. For that matter, Tori Hunter is a free agent in 08 and he may knock out some of the interest in Andruw. We should just wait and see. Nathan-You freezing your behind off yet?

By Shaun

October 31, 2006 12:09 PM | Link to this

As far as Diaz’s defense, if he can catch the ball, that’s fine. And he can. Diaz is worth many more runs with his bat than with his glove. The best fielders are only worth about one win with their gloves.

By Shaun

October 31, 2006 12:10 PM | Link to this

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=winshares&orderBy=field&direction=DESC&page=1

1 win share = 1/3 of a win.

Sorry, the best fielders are actually worth about 3 wins.

By Shaun

October 31, 2006 12:30 PM | Link to this

Greg, Lew, Chris,

This is sort of off topic, but there is an interesting chapter in Baseball Between the Numbers that talks about how player’s salaries aren’t what caused ticket price increases over the years (although the reverse may happen—ticket price increases could cause player salaries to increase).

The idea is that demand for baseball tickets have increased, allowing owners to raise ticket prices.

By geauxbraves2000

October 31, 2006 12:46 PM | Link to this

A list of players to stay far far away from, and I mean far away:

1) Soriano - he will be way overpaid next year. He had a good year last year, but that was his free agent year. I think he is going to be a big bust, an unloadable contract.

2) Soriano

3) Soriano

I can’t think of anyone else at the moment, wait, yes I can, Soriano.

Geaux Braves!!

By TennesseePaul

October 31, 2006 12:58 PM | Link to this

Hello all. Vacation was great. And it was exceptionally good to see the NL prevail in the WS. After all, it is the better of the two leagues, even though they really didn’t play like it in Interleague.
The Cards won the WS on defense mainly. Or maybe I should word that as follows, the Tigers lost that on defense. Pitchers defense of all things. Which brings me to another point
As far as Diaz’s defense, if he can catch the ball, that’s fine. And he can. Diaz is worth many more runs with his bat than with his glove. The best fielders are only worth about one win with their gloves
Defense matters. Diaz is a solid player, and I really enjoyed his contributions this past season, but if the opportunity is there to improve the defense in LF, take it. The rule of thumb for the Braves has almost always been, defense over hitting. Not always. It was more of a lose guidline than a law, but it doesn’t deminish it’s importance. There are few things I’d agree with Robert on, but this is one… Run Prevention ability is more important than run scoring ability. This means pitching comes first followed very closely by defense, then offense. A player needs to be able to do more than just catch a ball. Most pro-ball players can catch a ball that is thrown right at them. The important skill is in the ability to track and read a ball to enable the player to catch it. This is one of Diaz’s weaknesses. He’s better, far, far better than Mondesi was, but he isn’t near as good as Franceour or AJ.

Now why would I say run pervention is more important? Simply because it is. This past season for the Braves is a perfect example. They were able to score a ton of runs, but couldn’t prevent the other team from scoring and they didn’t get to far. Taking a knock in the offense to improve the ability to prevent the other team from scoring would improve this teams chance. I don’t know that it is necessary though. This sort of thing doesn’t really show up in stats to well. Mainly because baseball is a team sport and attempting to subtract the teams efforts, affects and/or contributions on a players output is nearly impossible.

By Shaun

October 31, 2006 01:01 PM | Link to this

geauxbraves2000,

I sure there will be a lot of ugliness in the free agent bidding. Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Lee, Jason Schmidt. I think those three are going to get contracts that we are going to be shaking our heads at three years from now.

By Jeff

October 31, 2006 01:06 PM | Link to this

Swith Salty to first and give him a chance to develop in the bushes. LaRouche certainly is showing that he’s capable at first and can fill the bill there for one or two more seasons. But Saltalamacchia seems to have the explosive power that LaRouche lacks, hence, would be the first baseman of the future.

No problem trading blue chip prospects position players) for solid pitching.

As to Schuerholz needing to get creative in his proposals in order to make deals, I have no inside track, but I still don’t buy that A. Jones is off the block, especially if a team like the Bosox, Yankees, Angels or Dodgers comes knocking. Given that these teams have the deep pockets, A Jones is likely to end up on one of them in 2008, anyway.

By Shaun

October 31, 2006 01:08 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

I agree that defense is of course important, but a player is only worth so much defensively. The best hitter this year, according to Win Shares, was Albert Pujols who was worth about 12 wins offensively. The best fielder this year was Ivan Rodriguez who was worth about 4 wins defensively. Position players generally contribute more offensively than defensively. Most of defense is pitching.

By Shaun

October 31, 2006 01:11 PM | Link to this

TennPaul,

If the Braves can get a great defensive leftfielder who can hit about as good as Diaz and they don’t have to give up too much (money or players), yes, they should go for it. But I would rather have Diaz than give up Salty for Crawford or pay $2 million a year for Podsednik or Dave Roberts.

By The Grinch

October 31, 2006 01:21 PM | Link to this

Morning, everyone. I see the blog is jumping with the usual not-likely-to-happen trades and “statistical analysis provided by Shaun.”

METSMAN, did you just check us for having overpriced, aging veterans? That’s been your team’s M.O. for several years now; you’re finally getting somewhere and it will be those same people that bring you back down next year. Fuggeddabouddit.

By BravesFaninRockies

October 31, 2006 01:26 PM | Link to this

Shaun,

I do not disagree that batting order is unimportant, so long as the players in the lineup perform. For whatever reason, Giles did not enjoy batting leadoff and Renteria does not thrive there. If a player is not comfortable in the one hole, and plays beneath his capabilities, it’s a detriment to the offense.

It’s also true that BC tends to prefer glove guys who can hit a little to hitters who are defensive liabilities. I disagree with that philosophy, but he’s in charge.

So yes, if we can find someone who can catch and throw better than Diaz who can hit almost as well and doesn’t cost a mint, do it.

Which brings me back to Kelly Johnson …

By TennesseePaul

October 31, 2006 01:26 PM | Link to this

Payne: To put it simply, I reject entirely the win shares evaluation of a players offense of defense. So when you post a figure for it, it’s meaningless. You will have to find a different way to justify a weak defense in favor of a huge offense. And try to frame it so that it makes sense with the Tigers of ‘06 and a the Braves of ‘06. Both those teams lost due to the inability to prevent runs.

By DGD

October 31, 2006 01:37 PM | Link to this

Surely now that the string of division titles is broken, JS will stop going for the quick fix. The Braves’ reality is that with a payroll stuck at about $80M for the forseable future, the team has to keep its young talent as replacements for players who become too expensive. This year they need to shed the contracts of Giles and Ramirez (AJ isn’t going anywhere). In a couple of years it will be LaRoche they can’t afford. They need to hold onto Salty and Escobar to plug in later. JS needs to stop being short-sighted!

By Shaun

October 31, 2006 01:39 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

The Tigers were the best run-preventing team in baseball over the course of the whole season and it showed up in their record.

But, how about the Yankees? They were in the middle of the pack in runs allowed, but scored more runs than anyone. And they had the best record in baseball.

It’s not about run scoring or prevention—it’s about run differential. There’s more than one way to skin a cat. As long as you score a significant amount of runs more than you allow, you’ll win.

By Troy

October 31, 2006 01:42 PM | Link to this

Here’s one to float around:

Trade for Ryan Freel, He could probably be had for Horacio Ramirez and if they want more maybe Thorman. Defensively he is as gritty as they come and can play 2B, 3B, and all 3 OF positions, he could hit leadoff. And would be a capable fill-in if (cross your fingers) Chipper goes down again, So there is your substantial at-bats for Diaz (who is better suited for a role position in my opinion) don’t get me wrong I like him but I think he would be over-exposed given 500 at-bats. What do ya’ll think

By Chip

October 31, 2006 01:43 PM | Link to this

Would a trade of Hudson and Salty for Gary Sheffield make sense? Sheff makes 13 mil this year, figure the Yankees would eat at least 8 million of that. Hudson makes 13 mil a year for the next three years, and has been bad. Maybe the Yankees (desperate for pitching) could take him and hope he regains the form he had with the A’s. Sweetening the deal would be including Salty who could be groomed to replace Posada in 2008.

By TennesseePaul

October 31, 2006 01:44 PM | Link to this

Kelly Johnson really isn’t a defensive upgrade over Diaz. Johnson is a converted infielder. Johnson also didn’t hit as well as Diaz. And lastly, Johnson hasn’t played ball in over a year. So I’m not sure how you could come back to Kelly Johnson as the answer. Was it because Cox stuck with him when he struggled? He drew walks, but starting slowing that down as the season wore on. And now he hasn’t played in over a year.

By Shaun

October 31, 2006 01:49 PM | Link to this

Would a trade of Hudson and Salty for Gary Sheffield make sense? Sheff makes 13 mil this year, figure the Yankees would eat at least 8 million of that. Hudson makes 13 mil a year for the next three years, and has been bad. Maybe the Yankees (desperate for pitching) could take him and hope he regains the form he had with the A’s. Sweetening the deal would be including Salty who could be groomed to replace Posada in 2008.

No way! Sheffield has maybe two or three good years left if he’s lucky. I would not trade two player, especially one of the top hitter prospects in baseball, for him. If the Braves trade Salty, I hope it’s for an awesome player at least under 25, 26.

By Troy

October 31, 2006 01:56 PM | Link to this

I don’t think any trade for Sheff makes sense we don’t need a $13 million rent-a-bat without a position. It just doesn’t address any of the Braves needs. I know Tim Hudson has been disappointing but all parties involved know that Tim has to give a better return on the investment, if for no other reason than to increase his trade value at a later date

By TennesseePaul

October 31, 2006 01:59 PM | Link to this

It’s not about run scoring or prevention—it’s about run differential

Lew did you read that?
Payne: I agree. Run Differential is very important. And the best way to improve it is through run prevention. Take the 1995 WS champion Braves. That was the case on run prevention. As for the Tigers in ‘06. They lost the WS because their defense was poor when it mattered most. They lost because they weren’t able to prevent runs. Same goes with the ‘06 Braves.

By darrin

October 31, 2006 02:03 PM | Link to this

although i would like to see c crawford in the atl i dont see a trade worked out for that ryan freel or j pierre is a more likely possibilty also i think gil meche would fit nicely here then trade h ram and giles for cliff lee and some minor leaugers give aybar second base he will be lights out

By TennesseePaul

October 31, 2006 02:05 PM | Link to this

Sheffield has maybe two or three good years left if he’s lucky.

I agree, but can’t help but notice that Sheffield is way bast 26 years old and yet he still has, by your own evaluation, 2 or 3 good years left.

By Shaun

October 31, 2006 02:09 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

How is run prevention the best way to improve run differential? It’s much easier to find good hitters than good pitchers?

(I do agree, because I’ve seen a detailed study, that run prevention is more important to winning in the post-season. Perhaps because no one is going to score many runs in the post-season, so whoever prevents runs the best is going to win. But overall, I don’t know if it matters too much as long as you outscore your opponent by a significant margin.)

By TennesseePaul

October 31, 2006 02:17 PM | Link to this

How is run prevention the best way to improve run differential? It’s much easier to find good hitters than good pitchers?

I’m not sure that second sentence is a question… Anyway. It can be viewed by the following scenario. Team A has players with .400 OBP. Very good. They score a lot. They play in the AL. Team B has pitchers, with a support cast of defenders, who allow an OBP of .100. Very good. They win a lot because the other team is never on base to do any damage. They play in the NL. These two teams meet in the WS. Team B wins. The ability to prevent runners from getting on, trumps the ability to get on. If your offense is based entirely on simply getting on base, and you face a team that is exceptionally good at keeping you off base, you lose. But you already said you agree. So I’m not sure why you even asked.

By Lew

October 31, 2006 02:19 PM | Link to this

TenPaul-Yeah, I agree with that and have never stated anything but that. My problem (though I fear to mention it) has been with OBP as the determinate factor of a player’s offensive worth. That is where Shaun and I disagree in a seemingly irreducible fashion. BTW-welcome back TP. Jeff-apparently there is not going to be any attemp to play Salty anywhere but catcher, so it doesn’t appear that he will be a first baseman of the future. To everyone advocating Sheffield, I pose this question-Are you out of your flipping minds? Check out Troy’s last post. I agree completely. To the sadly misinformed Mets fan who thinks the Braves are the Giants of the East in respect to their age-How about Francoeur, McCann, LaRoche, McBride, Aybar, Thorman, Langerhans, Diaz, James, Davies and Villarreal? None of them have more than three years major league experience. Almost all of them come from the Braves’ own farm system. This should make the Braves one of the younger teams in MLB. Finally-ANDRUW JONES WILL REMAIN A BRAVE IN 07. He won’t accept a trade. He and his agent have both stated this. It won’t happen.

By TennesseePaul

October 31, 2006 02:24 PM | Link to this

To the sadly misinformed Mets fan who thinks the Braves are the Giants of the East in respect to their age
I didn’t even see this post from the MetFan. I don’t know if I want to scroll up and try and find it either. If this was truly posted, it’s laughable. The average age of the Braves was 28. For the Mets, 31. For the Giants, 98.

By Greg in TN

October 31, 2006 02:30 PM | Link to this

Hi Shaun,

You make a very valid argument. Ticket prices are very much supply/demand at it’s finest. I believe that is one reason why the latest wave of ballparks have fewer seats than their forefathers. There are other costs incurred by ownership that also have a bearing on ticket prices (scouting, front office, marketing, et al).

TW has been adamant in the past several seasons that they will not pay for payroll above their comfort level. The reason why the team was such big spenders in the 90s was not as much wanting to keep up with the rest of the league as much as it was the ecomonics of the time allowed them to do so.

There is no way a corporate owner can keep throwing money into a sports franchise and continue to answer to shareholders. That’s just the cold hard realities of business. If you look at the big spenders in baseball, most are either independently wealthy owners (Steinbrenner, Wilpon, Moreno, McCourt, John Henry), or they are owned by corporations that either are privately held, or make enough in broadcasting and merchandizing revenue to offset the additional payroll.

By Shaun

October 31, 2006 02:34 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

First of all, I said Sheff has a couple of good years left if he’s lucky.

Second, just because a players generally peak between the ages of 25-29 doesn’t mean that can’t be productive after that. It just means players best years are likely to be in their late 20’s. If a player’s peak years are amazing, he could come down a little in his 30’s and still be great just not amazing. Usually if a player doesn’t put up his best numbers in his late 20’s, it’s because of some other factor beside ability.

By Shaun

October 31, 2006 02:37 PM | Link to this

Lew,

I’ve never said OBP is the determinate factor. I do think it’s the most important because I think avoiding outs is the most important skill, and OBP is out-avoiding percentage.

By Lew

October 31, 2006 02:42 PM | Link to this

TenPaul-It was posted by MetsMan @2:57AM. He mentioned our team of “overpriced and agin veterans”. I suppose that Andruw at 29 is ancient, too. At least as old as Glavine, Pedro, Roberto Hernandez and ElDuque. A while back someone mentioned what a coup the Padres pulled by getting Mike Piazza and howe the Braves should have picked him up instead of Pratt. The Padres just declined to pick up Piazza’s $8 mil option for next year. Yeah, that sure would have been a freat move for a cash strapped team like the Braves. The Padres apparently didn’t think much of his contribution last year to take a chance on him in their defense of the NL West title.

By Lew

October 31, 2006 02:42 PM | Link to this

Shaun-Dude-Please let’s not start this one again. Please.

By KC

October 31, 2006 02:47 PM | Link to this

TOP 10 FREE AGENT STARTING PITCHERS:

1 – Jason Schmidt: His body breaks down a little more than you’d like, but he’s a far cry from Kerry Wood and that department, and he’s still one of the premier power pitchers in the league.

2 – Barry Zito: Frankly, I think he’s about to earn more than he deserves. He’s a very good pitcher, but is he still an ace? Over the last 3 years he’s gone 41-34 with a 4.04 ERA. Those are good numbers these days, especially in the AL, but are those “ACE” numbers?

3 – Daisuke Matsuzaka: One of the best young arms in Japan. It seems likely that he’ll make the leap to MLB this season. He will be VERY expensive as suitors would have to first pay 15-25 million to his team/league in Japan just for the right to sign him, and then pay another 10-plus million per year to ink him. Sounds like the Yankees to me, but the Mets and a few other clubs might make a bid.

4 – Tom Glavine: I’m not sure he really counts as a free agent. We all know he’ll be back with the Mets unless he’s willing to settle for a measly 7-8 million one year deal to finish his career in Atlanta. He’s not the true ace he once was, but still a quality pitcher.

5 – Andy Pettitte: While he had a bad season by his standards, it wasn’t bad by MLB standards. At 34, he’s still not old. No reason to think he doesn’t still have some good years ahead of him.

6 – Jeff Suppan: His post-season performance this year probably helped grease the skids for a relatively hefty contract (for a non-ace starter). Over that last 3 seasons, he’s gone 44-26 with a 3.94 ERA (slightly better than Barry Zito’s numbers over that same stretch).

7 – Mike Mussina: He’s coming off a good year, but it was on the heels of two very mediocre efforts, and he’ll be 39 years old next season. He’ll probably re-ink with the Yankees.

8 – Mark Mulder: If he’s healthy there will probably be some teams ready to take a chance on him given his track record prior to this season.

9 – Jeff Weaver: He had an absolutely awful year during the regular season, but his brilliant post-season effort may have at least partially restored the faith of many in his ability.

10 – Woody Williams: This guy has quietly been a very productive starter for a number of years and is coming off a very good, though slightly injury shortened ’06 season. On the flip side, he’s 40 years old.

• I didn’t include Roger Clemens in this list as he’ll almost certainly play one more year with the Astros or retire.

By TennesseePaul

October 31, 2006 02:49 PM | Link to this

be great just not amazing
I still don’t get this line of reasoning. How being great isn’t amazing. It boils down to special players. Players who are HOF caliber. Typically, they don’t fit into the “typical” evaluation methods. They usually maintain great production throughout their careers, even past the ripe old age of 26. This is why it is best to hold on to them. Because they will continue to perform past their “prime”. It’s what makes them HOF players.

I’ve never said OBP is the determinate factor. I do think it’s the most important
Again with the Payne logic. OBP is the most important factor. The Most Important. But it isn’t the determinate. It’s so important that you can’t use it as the determinate. It’s part of the bling-bling asthetic of the sabremetric culture.

By The Grinch

October 31, 2006 02:52 PM | Link to this

Hey Lew, I just turned 33 a couple of months ago and I’ve already noticed a decline in my ability to drink beer. My bench press went down 10 pounds automatically. Pretty soon I’ll have to start taking Viagra, no doubt. :-)

By Troy

October 31, 2006 02:58 PM | Link to this

Does anyone think that Chipper is still a top 5 NL 3B?

1) Miguel Cabrera FLA 2) David Wright NYM 3) Ryan Zimmerman WAS 4) _____ 5) _____

Who do you fill in at #4 and #5 Scott Rolen, Garrett Atkins, Chipper Jones, Aramis Ramirez

By BB FAN

October 31, 2006 03:03 PM | Link to this

Sheffield is a cancer in the clubhouse…Every two years, he is unhappy about his contract. He is the biggest crya$$ when it comes to his contract. Besides, he can’t hit in the postseason either.

By Scalp 'em Braves

October 31, 2006 03:06 PM | Link to this

Aybar as leadoff? Because he got a lot of walks in the minors? Puh-leeze!! The few times he got on base this year, how many steals did he have? Ummm.. none. He had one steal all year and that was for the Bums before he came here. Where in the field are you gonna play him? He is an error waiting to happen. He played in total of 61 games for the Bums & the Braves - 6 errors. Extend that to the full season, you got 16 errors. No thanks.

By Lew

October 31, 2006 03:09 PM | Link to this

Grinch-You mean you’re not on Viagra YET? You should have started 4 years ago when you passed your prime. No more parking lot romances for you, Dude.

By ncscoots

October 31, 2006 03:13 PM | Link to this

just quickly scrolled the blog, good news that TPaul is back. Want to address:

*Saltalamacchia seems to have the explosive power that LaRouche lacks, hence, would be the first baseman of the future. *

You must have missed the 30 dingers Adam hit last year, most of ‘em in the second half. Salty has yet to display power anything remotely like that.

Trade for Ryan Freel,…he could hit leadoff.

Absolutely, sure, let’s replace Giles at the top of the order with a guy who is two years older and has lower career numbers in BA, OBP, and SLG. Makes sense.

Finally, I’m not quite ready to give up on Langerhans (re Diaz in LF every day). If he can find a way to hit .270, he bats 8 and plays LF every day for me, in the current Braves lineup anyway. He showed flashes with the bat in 2005, he did hit near .300 at home this year, and with that glove, there’s reason to not throw him under the bus yet.

By rammerjammer

October 31, 2006 03:14 PM | Link to this

I dunno…I’m less concerned about the pitching than I am about the leadoff spot. JS is gonna take care of the pitching.

But the leadoff man issue smells just like the closer issue from last year, the one that was supposed to work itself out and never did.

I just think we need a leadoff man who’s a proven leadoff man, not someone we’re trying to “fit” into that spot. The Reitsma experience, if anything, should have taught us that.

By Shaun

October 31, 2006 03:17 PM | Link to this

I still don’t get this line of reasoning. How being great isn’t amazing. It boils down to special players. Players who are HOF caliber. Typically, they don’t fit into the “typical” evaluation methods. They usually maintain great production throughout their careers, even past the ripe old age of 26. This is why it is best to hold on to them. Because they will continue to perform past their “prime”. It’s what makes them HOF players.

You haven’t said anything to contradict what I have said, I don’t think. Players peak in their late 20’s. Some special players stay productive well past that, but still players generally peak in their late 20’s. The evidence is out there that shows that.

Again with the Payne logic. OBP is the most important factor. The Most Important. But it isn’t the determinate. It’s so important that you can’t use it as the determinate. It’s part of the bling-bling asthetic of the sabremetric culture.

Wouldn’t you say catching a football is the most important factor in becoming a wide receiver. It’s not the only factor, or even the only important factor, but you could make the argument that it is the most important factor.

OBP is not part of the “bling-bling asthetic” or whatever. Studies show that OBP correlates highly with run scoring (and OBP allowed correlates highly with runs allowed).

It has nothing to do with sabermetric culture or anything, other than sabermetricians would agree that OBP is important. It’s there for all to see. Runs and OBP are closely related, more related than other stats. Investigate it for yourself. Look at teams that score a lot of runs and teams that allow few runs and look at their OBP and OBP allowed.

By Troy

October 31, 2006 03:21 PM | Link to this

Who would you suggest for that spot rammer

By ncscoots

October 31, 2006 03:21 PM | Link to this

rammer, could you define “proven” leadoff hitter? What kind of numbers would you be looking for? OBP, SB, and so forth? Just so we can eliminate the wheat from the chaff. I happen not to agree that a classic leadoff hitter is needed, but I AM interested in seeing what kind of player you think necessary to fill the void you see.

By BB FAN

October 31, 2006 03:24 PM | Link to this

Shaun,

What is it with your love affair for Matt Diaz? The guy is 28 years old and he never had more than 89 at bats in a season until this year. But Cox used him in the right situations. He played him when he was most likely to succeed. The guy should not be an everyday player. He is a platoon player and pinch hitter. That’s it. And it’s doubtful he will duplicate his production from last year.

And a team can not be built around hitting only. Good pitching will beat good hitting. Look at the Yankees. They have been one of the best hitting teams in the last 6 years but they have not won the WS. It’s because their pitching has not been as good as it was from 1996-2001. Especially in the last 2 years.

You have this idea of building a team that will outscore every team, every game. That’s not possible. There are going to be games where runs are scarce. The teams that can: play defense, pitch, manufacture runs when needed, win ballgames.

And please don’t give me examples of teams winning the WS with whatever stats. Or any of your crazy stats from whatever bible you are reading. I know that occasionally, a team will get hot at the the right time and win the WS without those key abilities. But they will not win consistantly.

By BB FAN

October 31, 2006 03:28 PM | Link to this

Troy,

Trading for Freel would be a great idea, but I’m not so sure the Reds would do it. He would be a great fit for the Braves though.

By Lew

October 31, 2006 03:33 PM | Link to this

Troy-You might want to re-think the order of your thrid basemen. I think the stats will prove somewhat surprising. First, Chipper played in less games than ALL of those you mentioned-between 32 and 48 games less. Chipper hit as many or more HR’s than all but Atkins (26 as opposed to 29). He was third in BA-.324 to .329 for Atkins and .330 to Cabrera. His OBP was third at .400 to Atkins .409 and Cabrera’s .430. The only stat Chipper lagged in was RBI, which is very attributale to his number of games played. I might give Garrett Atkins a slight edge as number one over Cabrera, but Chipper overall was better than the rest when you take into account his production with so few games. I would say his per game production may have put him in the top three or even higher.

By Troy

October 31, 2006 03:34 PM | Link to this

BB Fan

Wayne Krivsky has shown he is not gun shy to make a trade, and Shuerholz might be able to steal Freel away, it makes a ton of sense to me, we’ll see it should fun!

By ncscoots

October 31, 2006 03:38 PM | Link to this

guess BBFan has forgotten Cincinnati (and when did Jack Billingham make the HOF as a pitcher)? There’s more than one way to construct a ballclub to win. I don’t even disagree with the first two parts of your premise (pitching and defense are essential). But the “manufacturing runs” philosophy died with expansion, smaller ballparks, and weight training. When 3.50 is considered a good ERA, then you better be doing more than scraping together a run here and there, you best be bangin’ and trottin’. Today’s offensive environment (and overall lack of quality pitching) simply doesn’t allow a strategy that calls for consistently winning 3-2. Sad in a way, in that it does take some of the tactical thinking out of the game, but there it is.

By Lew

October 31, 2006 03:38 PM | Link to this

Rammer-I’m not even as concerned with the leadoff thing as with the bullpen/closer last year. Dude, it isn’t even close. We need more pitching much more than a leadoff hitter. With solid pitching, we will score more than enough runs to win. Scoots-I’m not ready to give up on Langerhans, either. He played hurt this year and I think he was a victim of BC’s fascination with platooning. He will certainly help defensively. And Shaun-I believe a great defensive player is worth many more than 3 wins with his glove, despite what your study says. Ask Braves pitchers if Andruw saves more than three games for them. Hell, I’d say Langerhans saved more than 3 games for the Braves with his glove last year.

By Scalp 'em Braves

October 31, 2006 03:45 PM | Link to this

I agree with Scoots on the Langerhans issue. I hope he gets extra work with a hitting guru in the offseason and spring training. He ain’t that bad with the bat, and I think he can improve. His defense is awesome.

As for Sheffield, I don’t want him. I didn’t want him when he was signed before. The guy has been a whiner his entire career, and he ain’t gonna change if he comes back. When the pressure is on him at the plate in the post season, no matter who he plays for, he folds like a cheap card table. Let him go ruin the chemistry in somebody else’s clubhouse.

By Troy

October 31, 2006 03:47 PM | Link to this

I was going for more of an 07’ and beyond prediction not who was best in 06’

I threw this out for discussion, so I appreciate the response, I will stick with my top 3 though Cabrera is just sick, if you factor in defense then Zimmerman deserves more credit, then there’s Wright all three of those guys are under 25 years old, I think Chipper is still a great player but those three definitely jumped ahead

By Troy

October 31, 2006 03:49 PM | Link to this

I would fill out my list like this 4)Jones 5) Rolen 6) Ramirez 7) Atkins

By Troy

October 31, 2006 03:50 PM | Link to this

Lew Lets see your Top 5 NL 3B

By TennesseePaul

October 31, 2006 04:09 PM | Link to this

Payne: What makes no sense is saying amazing is not great or great is not amazing. I’m not clear on the difference. Great is amazing and very hard to find. Are you saying that, Player A performs at 25% more than everyone else, and that’s amazing, but after age 26 he only performs at 20% better than everyone else and therefore is just great? That’s still amazing and Great! That’s no reason to trade/release/non-tender him for a bunch of A level prospects. Those are the type of players you keep. They’re great and amazing. Amazing and Great.

By BB FAN

October 31, 2006 04:25 PM | Link to this

ncscoots,

I never said that a team can win by averaging 3 runs a game! I said a team needs to be able to manufacture runs when needed! Big difference there.

The score could be 8-8 in the bottom of the 9th inning. If the leadoff hitter gets on, I’m going to sacrifice him to second. Or if he is a speedster, he steals second, then gets sacrifced to third with less than two outs. It’s called manufacturing a run when needed.

How many teams have won the World Series in the last 16 years with a series ERA above 3.50? Only 5. Here are the winning teams’ ERA in the World Series from 1990-2006. 1990= 1.70, 1991= 3.74 (Atlanta had a better ERA than Minn but failed to manufacture runs in key situations and had some baserunning miscues), 1992= 2.78 (Atl had 2.68 but Atl scored 7 runs in game 5 blowout), 1993= 5.77 (Phil had 7.57 ERA), 1995=2.67, 1996 = 3.93 (Atl had a 2.33 ERA but was not able to manufacture runs in key situations and Grissom had a few critical miscues in CF), 1997 = 5.48 (Fla-Clev slugfest), 1998 = 2.75, 1999 = 2.19, 2000 = 2.68, 2001 = 1.94, 2002 = 5.75 (Ana-SF slugfest), 2003 = 3.21 (Yankees actually had better ERA but that’s due to two 6-1 games won by NY, Marlins won all close games), 2004=2.50, 2005 = 2.63, 2006 = 2.05 (Det only had an 3.00 ERA but made numerous errors.

Good pitching usually stopped good hitting. There were a few slugfests that could have gone either way. There were a few teams that had a better ERA but still lost. But usually because of errors, or baserunning miscues, or not being able to manufacture runs.

By 2007 Mets

October 31, 2006 04:25 PM | Link to this

You overlooked Jose Reyes….Most stolen bases in the majors and batted .300 with 19 homers. Struck out only 81 times and is only 23 yrs old. May be the best lead off hitter in the majors.

By rammerjammer

October 31, 2006 04:28 PM | Link to this

Fellow fans, can’t say that I have “the” answer for the leadoff man question.

I do think Giles showed that not everyone can thrive in that spot, despite their individual history of success elsewhere in the batting order.

In strict numbers, I’d hope for a career leadoff man with a .340 lifetime OBP in that role who can go first-to-third, work a count and swipe enough bases (20-30)to enhance the offense.

Not sure if that particular leadoff man is available or if he’s within our financial reach. Most all mentioned have “issues” (age, popgun arm, don’t like leading off, too expensive).

My concern with Diaz is that this guy is a “situation” hitter who excelled in a limited role. It’s Reitsma-like thinking to assume he can step up to full-time, leadoff responsibilities.

By BB FAN

October 31, 2006 04:40 PM | Link to this

2007 Mets,

Reyes is great. he ignites that offense. And he improved his plate discipline a lot in just one year. The sky’s the limit for him. The Mets were smart to lock him up for 4-5 years.

By KC

October 31, 2006 04:55 PM | Link to this

Troy:

I think that when he’s healthy, Chipper might still be the best all around 3rd baseman in the game. Again, when he’s healthy.

Chipper had 411 at-bats this year. David Wright had 582, and Miguel Cabrera had 576. For the sake of comparison, let’s project Chipper’s ’06 number out to 576 AB’s:

Chipper: .324 avg. / 37-HR & 121 RBI

Cabrera: .339 avg. / 26-HR & 114 RBI

Wright: .311 avg. / 26-HR & 116 RBI

They’re all in the same class, but Chipper still has more pop than Cabrera or Wright, and is a much better defensive 3rd baseman than Miguel Cabrera (not sure about Wright’s defensive skills).

Now, of course health is a big concern for Chipper, so if you were picking a 3rd baseman to build your team around, you’d be crazy not to go with Wright or Cabrera. But in terms of ability, Chipper’s still as good as they come when he’s on the field.

By Troy

October 31, 2006 05:05 PM | Link to this

Great Debate! keep it up!

By The Grinch

October 31, 2006 05:18 PM | Link to this

Hey, Y’all; you’re forgetting Vinnie Castilla!

By TennesseePaul

October 31, 2006 05:18 PM | Link to this

The Mets were smart to lock him up for 4-5 years

The Mets had him locked up for 4-5 years without that deal. Same with Wright. That’s like saying we should lock up McCann. McCann won’t be a free agent until after the 2011 season without “locking him up.” What the Mets did do is commit payroll to the players for that much time without allowing arbitration (I believe Wright was signed through his first FA year). But they would still have those players regardless and they couldn’t lose them unless they traded them or released them. Was it wise? Depends on how you look at it and what occurs over time. They may have procured those two at a lower cost on the back end, but they did pay them more on the front end than league minimum. Reyes and Wright are good, no doubt, but the Mets didn’t have to give them those contracts to keep them there for 4 or 5 years. Time will answer whether this was bargain or bust. Resigning them at the end of those contracts might be a little harder as well. Once they are FA’s the entire left side of the Mets infield could walk to greener pastures, which would be right across town.

By Lew

October 31, 2006 05:21 PM | Link to this

Troy-They are all worthy of being on the list. I would rethink Garrett Atkins if I were you. That’s the main difference. That and I’m just not a Scott Rolen fan. He loses in the intangibles department because of (serious) injuries and his attitude leaves much to be desired. Anyone who can’t get along with his manager(s) is bound to have it affect his performance.

By Lew

October 31, 2006 05:27 PM | Link to this

Grinch-Vinnie is retiring. I think you’re mind is going. Past your prime at 33. It’s all downhill, now. Nothing but blue pills and blue haired ladies in your future, Dude.

By Troy

October 31, 2006 05:45 PM | Link to this

What can we expect out of Hudson next year? Thoughts?

By The Grinch

October 31, 2006 05:46 PM | Link to this

C’mon, man; he can still pick it! Sigh. Maybe you’re right, dude. I’m living in the past. Guess I’d better get busy on those “mature BBW personals” sites and find myself a caretaker. Someone’s gotta soak my cornbread for me so I can gum it. That reminds me, has anyone seen Bob?

By Lew

October 31, 2006 06:03 PM | Link to this

Grinchy-Yeah, Dude-It’s time to invest in just for men and time to start paying attention to all those ED commercials. Don’t worry, though, you can still watch football. All the Super Bowl commercials are for Bud or Levitra, anyway.

By The Grinch

October 31, 2006 06:16 PM | Link to this

Troy, my thoughts on Hudson are well known. His age and lack of injury suggest there’s no reason he can’t come back to form. However, there was no reason he couldn’t last year, either. And KC will whip out stats to tell you different, but IMO he hasn’t been all that great since he’s been here. Just don’t have much faith in him. But you never know. Maybe when people finally give up on him and there’s less pressure, he’ll start pitching well again.

Here’s one for ya: If Salty’s name was Jim Smith would he ever be mentioned on this blog at all, much less three out of every four posts?

Y’all ought to be proud of me. I’m turning down a nasty party on the North side in order to be safe and sound and get some work done tonight. Dang, Lew; another sign of aging.

By Lew

October 31, 2006 06:29 PM | Link to this

Grinch-Be sure to break out your pipe and slippers and that gray cardigan you’ve been hiding in the back of your closet.

By GM Wannabe

October 31, 2006 07:00 PM | Link to this

Has anyone heard the status of Blaine Boyer?I believe if healthy he will be good tandum with Mackay McBride for the 7/8 inning. Also how about a trade of Giles to Cleveland for Jake Westbrook? Or Hudson to Detroit for Craig Monroe. I read that Leyland is not enamored with him and Detroiot may be dealing Bonderman to Baltimore for Tejada so Hudson could take his place in the rotation. In order to re-sign Andruw or give him an extention, Hudson must be dealt to free up the money he will be owed in the next few years of his contract. It may not be a bad idea to just trade Hudson for anything you can get just to free up the money say to NYY for Scott Proctor.

By Troy

October 31, 2006 07:04 PM | Link to this

I wonder if Jeff Francoeur and Brian McCann are trick-or treating

By Troy

October 31, 2006 07:23 PM | Link to this

I think Boyer is okay and you’re right he probably will and should be counted on as a key part of the bullpen next year

By The Grinch

October 31, 2006 07:28 PM | Link to this

Lew, I assure you I’ll break out my pipe, anyway. :-)

GM wanabee, thank you. I’ve been advocating trading Hudson for whatever we can so we can spend his salary on someone more reliable. This year won’t be bad, but the salary he’s owed in the two after that are more than twice what he’s worth if he doesn’t pick it up considerably.

Troy, I don’t know. Jeff would have to ride in a golf cart from door to door ‘cause he doesn’t know how to walk. (rim shot)

By troy

October 31, 2006 07:42 PM | Link to this

LOL, Yeah I’m sure McCann wouldn’t mind driving cause he ain’t much faster

By The Grinch

October 31, 2006 07:55 PM | Link to this

I could just see Frenchy holding up McCann and Chipper (both with high ankle sprains) while Wickman and Parantoe follow behind eating all the candy. Lordy, lordy. So, anyone else not watching the NBA tip-off? I’d rather watch reruns of…well, just about anything. Y’all think baseball players are grossly overpaid.

By troy

October 31, 2006 08:02 PM | Link to this

man dancing with the stars just came on, go Emmitt

By troy

October 31, 2006 08:05 PM | Link to this

yeah they’re overpaid but we are the poor idiots who sit here and talk about them

By Bobbymahlon

October 31, 2006 08:39 PM | Link to this

After watching the post season I’m more convinced than ever we have the best defensive outfield in baseball when Langerhans is in left. Lets not give up on him yet because he has a good swing and may blosssom out and hit around 280 with 15-20 dingers next year. If we lose Andruw he may have to step in and play center a position he has showed he can handle with no trouble at all. I also would like to see Mark DeRosa back if we lose Giles. Please no Glavine and Sheffield, they are both over the hill and will not be worth the money. I also don’t like there attitude.

By Patrick

October 31, 2006 08:52 PM | Link to this

KC, I think that you have many great points. I also think that whoever put the Kazmir and Crawford for all of our prospects is insane. Crawford’s already in his prime and Kazmir has not proved anything yet. And that is way too much to give up for two decent players and a few other minor leaguers.

By troy

October 31, 2006 09:16 PM | Link to this

Does anyone know anything about Eric Campbell, I have heard great things about him offensively and heard that he was making a move to 2B in the Arizona Fall League, just wanted to hear if anyone read a scouting report on what type of player we can expect out of him and when his ML Timeframe may be?

By Lew

October 31, 2006 09:56 PM | Link to this

Troy-Eric Campbell hit .296 with 22Hr and 77RBI, 18 SB and was CS 4 times for Class A Rome this year. He is playing for Honolulu in Fall League and is only batting .246 1 HR and & RBI. in a few games. He played third base.

By brent

October 31, 2006 09:58 PM | Link to this

I’m glad that Carlos Beltran stuck out looking to end the LCS.

By Nelson Hawkins

October 31, 2006 11:14 PM | Link to this

Catchers tend to convert well to 3B, why not try Salty there?

By flbravesgirl

October 31, 2006 11:19 PM | Link to this

Actually, Troy, Francoeur was in that article about the sports figures’ childhood costumes and mentioned what he and Mac were wearing this year. I’m not sure if he was serious. Having a hard time picturing it.

But I can definately picture BigBob and Paronto cleaning out the candy bags.

By Kyle

November 1, 2006 12:13 AM | Link to this

do what it takes to get crawford. he is the perfect player for the perfect time for atlanta. he is an excellent hitter as he has hit everywhere for the rays and a super defender. with him,jones, and frenchy, the braves would have the best defensive outfield in baseball. if you dont trade salty, use him as the backup catcher. release todd pratt. he would be a better option than pratt or pena. if you get crawford it wouldnt matter who you put at 2nd cause they would hit 8th in the order. just make sure they can play great defense.

By The Grinch

November 1, 2006 12:55 AM | Link to this

Man. The first “Halloween” was a great movie. Just saw it again for the first time in about 20 years. I miss the 70’s, even though I was only a kid (or perhaps because of that). This big-a* old house is liable to be scary tonight (unlike normally…).

FBG, beware of the Boogeyman. :-)

By Lone Wolf

November 1, 2006 02:59 AM | Link to this

Jarrod Saltalamacchia will be moved to CF in anticipation of replacing Andruw when he leaves in free agency after 2007 and Salty will become the next Dale Murphy.

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 08:15 AM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

Getting Wright and Reyes locked up was smart. Salary for players of their skill jrise steeply in arbitration very quickly.

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 08:20 AM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

A perfect example a a highly skilled players salary quickly rising is Andruw Jones. In 1999, he made $330,000. In 2000, he was awarded $3.7 Mill. In 2001, he was awarded $8.2 mill which at the time was the record for arbitration.

By MEB

November 1, 2006 08:40 AM | Link to this

Did y’all see the score of the NBA champion Miami Heat and Chicago Bulls game? Oh, the humanity! The Heat go down by 42 (108-66)and this was the game where they received their rings for last years championship.

What would a comparable beating like this be in baseball?

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 08:43 AM | Link to this

I believe a great defensive player is worth many more than 3 wins with his glove, despite what your study says. Ask Braves pitchers if Andruw saves more than three games for them. Hell, I’d say Langerhans saved more than 3 games for the Braves with his glove last year.

AJ had 383 total chances last season on defense. He had 669 plate appearances. His career high in total chances was 516. How could he possibly have been worth as many runs defensively?

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 08:56 AM | Link to this

What is it with your love affair for Matt Diaz? The guy is 28 years old and he never had more than 89 at bats in a season until this year. But Cox used him in the right situations. He played him when he was most likely to succeed. The guy should not be an everyday player. He is a platoon player and pinch hitter. That’s it. And it’s doubtful he will duplicate his production from last year.

Diaz has always been a good player that never got a chance to play in KC or TB. I never said he was a great player, but you just get a lot of bang for the buck. He was the Braves sixth-best hitter last season:

http://baseballprospectus.com/teamaudit.php?stats&team=ATL&battersort=VORP

And a team can not be built around hitting only. Good pitching will beat good hitting. Look at the Yankees. They have been one of the best hitting teams in the last 6 years but they have not won the WS. It’s because their pitching has not been as good as it was from 1996-2001. Especially in the last 2 years.

There is more than one way to build a good team. Good pitching didn’t beat good hitting over 162 games (the 2006 Yankees). But I do agree that run prevention is really all that matters in the post-season. (Well, that and good fortune).

You have this idea of building a team that will outscore every team, every game. That’s not possible. There are going to be games where runs are scarce. The teams that can: play defense, pitch, manufacture runs when needed, win ballgames.

I never said it was possible to build a team that would go 162-0, which would be the same thing as saying you could build a team that will outscore every team every game. I have an idea that you can build a team with a good run differential in more ways than one (although run prevention [pitching and defense] seems to be the best way to increase your chances in the post-season).

And please don’t give me examples of teams winning the WS with whatever stats. Or any of your crazy stats from whatever bible you are reading. I know that occasionally, a team will get hot at the the right time and win the WS without those key abilities. But they will not win consistantly.

Winning consistently (over the course of 162 games) requires you to have a good run differential, no matter if your team is built around pitching (the 1990’s Braves) or hitting (the Big Red Machine) or both. There is no one way to build a good team. Winning in the post-season requires power pitching, good defense and a good closer (i.e., run prevention):

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=betweenthenumbers/billybeane/060405

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 09:10 AM | Link to this

Shaun,

“Winning in the post-season requires power pitching, good defense and a good closer (i.e., run prevention):”

That, we agree on.

And yes, you are right it’s easier to win consistantly in the regualr season with offense, no pitching. I meant to say that a team will not win consistantly in the postseason like that.

But Diaz is not going to be a star. Well, not likely anyways. Cox put the guy in situations where he would excel. That is why he seems to be a player that needs playing time. But there are players that are part timers. Nothing worng with that at all. In fact, every team needs them. I would love to be a part timer in the majors. Anyway, the Braves need a better leftfielder with speed. Who knows if they will go after one though.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 09:13 AM | Link to this

BB FAN,

Oh, yeah. And sometimes inferior teams win in the post-season because they are better at run prevention or because of bad luck. But teams that win over the long-haul are teams that outscore their opponents, teams with great run differentials—whether they do it with hitting or pitching or both.

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 09:15 AM | Link to this

Shaun,

And Andruw Jones is worth more than 3 wins a season defensively. Your bible study can’t show it because it’s not a numbers thing. You can rattle off any numbers you want, they do not prove that. It’s intangibles. Any Braves pitcher you ask will say that Jones easily saves a game every couple of weeks.

By Lew

November 1, 2006 09:24 AM | Link to this

Shaun-Dude-I didn’t say that Andruw was worth more defensively than offensively. Read my statement again. I just said that a very good defensive player was capable of saving more wins than the 3 you say is all that they are worth. I point out again that his pitchers consistently say he saves their behinds on a regular basis. And he does. Every time he takes away an extra base hit with runners on base, which he frequently does, he saves runs. Almost any of these runs saved has the potential to be the run that makes the difference in the game. Unless you put together that team that consistently score huge amount. Last year especially, with so many one run games, can most definitely hinge on a great play.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 09:30 AM | Link to this

But Diaz is not going to be a star. Well, not likely anyways. Cox put the guy in situations where he would excel. That is why he seems to be a player that needs playing time. But there are players that are part timers. Nothing worng with that at all. In fact, every team needs them. I would love to be a part timer in the majors. Anyway, the Braves need a better leftfielder with speed. Who knows if they will go after one though.

I agree. Diaz is not a star. He’s never going to be one of the top leftfielders in the league. But the Braves scored the second-most runs in the league with players worse than Diaz playing everyday or almost everyday, so why overpay for a Carl Crawford or a Dave Roberts or a Scott Podsednik? Diaz is a fine player and given more playing time he would be just as impressive. His career stats over the long haul (both majors and minors) indicate he’s a pretty good player, and is a better option than probably half the regular leftfielders in the game.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 10:13 AM | Link to this

And Andruw Jones is worth more than 3 wins a season defensively. Your bible study can’t show it because it’s not a numbers thing. You can rattle off any numbers you want, they do not prove that. It’s intangibles. Any Braves pitcher you ask will say that Jones easily saves a game every couple of weeks.

Pitchers have done the research so they must know exactly how many games AJ’s glove is worth.

Shaun-Dude-I didn’t say that Andruw was worth more defensively than offensively. Read my statement again. I just said that a very good defensive player was capable of saving more wins than the 3 you say is all that they are worth. I point out again that his pitchers consistently say he saves their behinds on a regular basis. And he does. Every time he takes away an extra base hit with runners on base, which he frequently does, he saves runs. Almost any of these runs saved has the potential to be the run that makes the difference in the game. Unless you put together that team that consistently score huge amount. Last year especially, with so many one run games, can most definitely hinge on a great play.

No game hinges on one play. Baseball’s a team game; you can find several plays that could have changed a particular game.

AJ’s was the best fielder on the Braves last season and he was worth about 2 wins defensively:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/thtstats/main/index.php?view=winshares&linesToDisplay=50&seasonfilter[0]=2006&teamfilter[0]=ATL&pos_filter[0]=All&Submit=Submit&orderBy=field&direction=DESC&page=1

Even if we assume that the hard work of the people at The Hardball Times is wrong, it would have to be wrong by 10 wins in order for AJ to have saved the Braves a game every couple of weeks.

And why don’t you investigate the research before you criticize it? They don’t come up with these numbers out of nowhere—they actually do a lot of research and a lot of scrutinizing of research to estimate how many wins a player contributed to. With all due respect, I guess it’s threatening to a lot of people that some people actually work very hard to arrive closer to the truth.

By journalist jimmy smith

November 1, 2006 10:24 AM | Link to this

it is revealed that jim edmonds was suffering from a painful toe injury during the series but played anyway. hmmmm….

” …was further slowed over recent days by what has been referred to as an injury similar to “turf toe.”

“Edmonds had a cortisone shot before the team traveled from St. Louis on Monday. He also has a sore shoulder, and said over the weekend that he expects to have minor offseason surgery to “clean up” the joint.”

“On Tuesday, he put the injuries behind him and played.”

hmmmm…

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 10:35 AM | Link to this

Shaun,

“No game hinges on one play. Baseball’s a team game; you can find several plays that could have changed a particular game.”

“AJ’s was the best fielder on the Braves last season and he was worth about 2 wins defensively:”

“Even if we assume that the hard work of the people at The Hardball Times is wrong, it would have to be wrong by 10 wins in order for AJ to have saved the Braves a game every couple of weeks.”

“And why don’t you investigate the research before you criticize it? They don’t come up with these numbers out of nowhere—they actually do a lot of research and a lot of scrutinizing of research to estimate how many wins a player contributed to. With all due respect, I guess it’s threatening to a lot of people that some people actually work very hard to arrive closer to the truth.”

The key there is that they “researched” to get their “numbers.” Well, you can’t find what Andruw Jones does defensively by “numbers.”

Intangibles, Intangibles, Intangibles, Intangibles. I can’t say it enough!!!

Intangibles are things that can not be defined or measured!!!! So no matter how many years it took your stat geeks to come up with their numbers for defense, they won’t find it. In fact, they probably spent too much time “researching” because if they just went to a game and saw how important defense is, they would throw their silly defensive numbers out.

And one play can mean the difference in a game. It happens everyday in the majors. A game saving catch can turn the momentum in any game. And if it’s a game saving catch in the bottom of the 9th with runners on in a one run game, then it is the play!

Or if a player makes a defensive error that leads to the winning run scoring, it is the play!

And with all due respect, I guess it’s threatening to a lot of stat geeks that some people actually play and watch a game to learn the true value of different aspects of it.

Shaun, do you ever actually see any baseball games, or do you just sit inside and study stats all day? That’s what it seems like.

Like I have always said, statistics are important in baseball, but they are the only thing that determines the outcome.

By TennesseePaul

November 1, 2006 10:37 AM | Link to this

BBFan: Very true about arbitration. That is why I said time will tell. There is the chance that they flame out and become over paid, where as arbitration would have prevented that to an extent. There is also the chance they will become mega stars and excel better than anyone in history at their positions, making this a bargain deal. Time will tell. But, the contracts weren’t necessary to keep them with NY. NY has the money to handle high arbitration, so those two weren’t going anywhere unless traded.

By Lew

November 1, 2006 10:39 AM | Link to this

Shaun-“No game hinges on one play”. Dude, you are flat out wrong and that’s all there is to it. No study you could possibly quote will ever back up that blanket statement. I think every baseball fan can think of more than one instance of a play that makes or breaks a game. Think Kirby Puckett’s WS catch in 91. Think of Lonnie Smith being decoyed. Think of Otis Nixon’s catch. Dude, the list goes on. You are wrong.

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 10:40 AM | Link to this

That was obviously supposed to say “Like I have always said, statistics are important in baseball, but they are not the only thing that determines the outcome.”

By TennesseePaul

November 1, 2006 10:47 AM | Link to this

Payne: AJ had 383 total chances last season on defense. He had 669 plate appearances. His career high in total chances was 516. How could he possibly have been worth as many runs defensively?

How could he possibly…? It is possible that the 383 total chances all came with the bases juiced and AJ robbing a homer to keep the lead in favor of the Braves while the majority of his plate appearances were not close and late situations. I watched this season, so I know that didn’t happen. But is is possible.
But in all seriousness, AJ’s presence in centerfield presents an intangible. Much like Francoeur’s presence is starting to have. Runners don’t run as freely when the ball is hit in their direction. So while the total chances may be low, it doesn’t reflect how many times a runner descided not to go for the extra base because AJ was involved in the play. Also, the pitcher can pitch differently knowing AJ is in center field. If AJ were terrible at it, the pitchers would change their approach to try and keep the ball away from the center fielder. It’s the intangibles. The things you see when you watch the game as opposed to the box score.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 10:47 AM | Link to this

“No game hinges on one play”. Dude, you are flat out wrong and that’s all there is to it. No study you could possibly quote will ever back up that blanket statement. I think every baseball fan can think of more than one instance of a play that makes or breaks a game. Think Kirby Puckett’s WS catch in 91. Think of Lonnie Smith being decoyed. Think of Otis Nixon’s catch. Dude, the list goes on. You are wrong.

There were five or six other plays in those games that also could have turned the game around. Those are just sensational plays that happened late in those games, so you remember them a “game-changers.” Yeah, if Otis Nixon doesn’t make that catch, the Braves may lose, but I’m sure there were several other plays that you could say that about that were less sensational or happened earlier in the game.

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 10:47 AM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

You’re right, they could flame out and those contracts would seem crazy, but I would take that chance.

The Mets do have money and I’m sure they will buy a few starting pitchers this off season to go along with the offense they bought over the last few years.

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 10:50 AM | Link to this

Lew,

Now I wonder if Shaun will actually admit to being wrong? I bet he’s getting some statistics to try and back his ludicrous statement as I type this. He comes out with a bullsh!t stat for everything.

By TennesseePaul

November 1, 2006 10:52 AM | Link to this

No game hinges on one play
Joe Carters walk off homerun in the 93 WS.

No game hinges on one play
Francoeur’s walk-off grand slam in May of this year.

No game hinges on one play
Carlos Beltran watching strike three to help the Cards win AND get out of the pinch with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth.

No game hinges on one play
Bartman.

By Lew

November 1, 2006 10:53 AM | Link to this

Shaun-I really don’t care how much hard work these statisticians do. There are some aspects of the game that are virtually impossible to quantify. What about Francoeur catching a ball in right with a runner on third who does NOT score because Francoeur’s arm is feared? All that goes into the stat base is a putout by Francoeur. But that run could have easily been the difference between a win and a loss. How about if Marcus makes a diving catch in the hole at 2nd, thereby keeping the ball in the infield and denying the runner an extra base? Or Langerhans going up and over the wall to take away a HR? None of these instances would be recorded as anything but a putout for the fielder. If Marcus couldn’t throw out the runner at first, then he wouldn’t even get a putout. But all of these scenarios lead to a run NOT being sdcored. In a one run game, that would be the difference between a win and a loss. Totally unquantifiable, but lead to a win nonetheless. Sorry, Dude, stats just don’t always tell the whole story. You can make inferences using stats, but they do nothing for intangible aspects of a game. Not to mention psychological aspects. That great play might be all a pitcher needs to calm down and focus. No, stats don’t tell the whole story, thereby making your statistical analysis flawed in many situations. Defense is one of those situations.

By The Grinch

November 1, 2006 10:55 AM | Link to this

Morning, all. BBFAN, well said indeed. If I don’t see Ncscoots jump on you for saying essentially exactly what I did the other day, I’ll have to assume it’s just because he doesn’t like me and not because of what I (we) are saying.

Lew, crowd reaction and highlight reels mean nothing. Excitement can only be measured in stats.

By TennesseePaul

November 1, 2006 10:58 AM | Link to this

I guess it’s threatening to a lot of people that some people actually work very hard to arrive closer to the truth

HA! Yes. I suppose what is more threatening is the guy who whole heartedly regurgitates others work.

By Lew

November 1, 2006 10:58 AM | Link to this

Shaun-Yes, these were more spectacular and memeorable plays. There are, like you say, other less visable plays that occur that a game can hinge on. But by telling me that there could be five or six other plays in a game, just reinforces my statement. Stats do absolutely nothing to quantify intangibles. They can’t. Stats deal with absolutes. It is the nature of the beast, whereas intangibles are, by their nature, not quantifiable. Just like Ten Paul says, too.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 11:01 AM | Link to this

BB FAN,

No “stat geek” would say defense is not important. Anything that leads to or prevents runs is important because scoring and preventing runs are what leads to wins.

And numbers largely tell you how much a player contributes. You can pretty accurately tell how many runs a team scored by looking at certain numbers. And you can pretty accurately tell how many games a team wins and loses by looking at runs.

It’s pretty simple—you look at how many outs a player was responsible for and it pretty accurately tells you how many runs he was responsible for saving.

By Lew

November 1, 2006 11:05 AM | Link to this

Grinchy-Actually, crowd reaction and excitement can be quantified-Decibel level.

By Lew

November 1, 2006 11:06 AM | Link to this

And as BBFan says, too. Sorry Dude, didn’t mean to slight your response.

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 11:07 AM | Link to this

Shaun,

“There were five or six other plays in those games that also could have turned the game around. Those are just sensational plays that happened late in those games, so you remember them a “game-changers.””

You can not just admit you are wrong! I have a wife like that too. (LOL)

Now of course there are many plays in baseball as there is a play for every pitch in a game. But there are only a few game changing plays. And it’s very possible to have just one game changing play! And those plays described by Lew were the game changing plays of those games. Hell, the Lonnie Smith play and the Puckett catch and later homer could be called series changing plays.

By The Grinch

November 1, 2006 11:10 AM | Link to this

I was referring to the 10:35 post; I didn’t know there were going to be 15 more in-between before my last one came out.

By Blake

November 1, 2006 11:14 AM | Link to this

Looks like Glavine will stay a Met. 2yrs at 25mil. That is too rich for us

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 11:15 AM | Link to this

Shaun,

You just don’t get it!

NOT ALL DEFENSIVE VALUE OR EVEN OFFENSIVE VALUE CAN BE FOUND IN NUMBERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I EVEN GAVE YOU THE DEFINITION OF INTANGIBLES BUT YOU STILL GO BACK AND SAY STATS TELLS YOU WHAT A TEAM OR PLAYER DOES OR DOESN”T DO! BLAH, BLAH, BLAH!

STATS DO NOT SHOW INTANGIBLES!!!!!

INTANGIBLES ARE THINGS THAT CAN NOT BE DEFINED OR MEASURED!!!!!!

I usually hate bloggers who type in all caps, but you are either dense, ignorant or just trying to irratate people.

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 11:21 AM | Link to this

Lew,

Well said. Maybe Shaun will finally realize that stats can not measure the intangibles. But I bet he doesn’t admit he’s wrong.

By The Grinch

November 1, 2006 11:25 AM | Link to this

Lew, I was being sarcastic.

Mets just payed Glavine 25 mill for two years? Dumba$$es. Where are all those folks saying Tommy isn’t in it for the money and that all he wants is to come back home to get #300? I’ll enjoy your reactions.

By Lew

November 1, 2006 11:30 AM | Link to this

Grinch-Fan appreciation can also be quantified by counting the number of beer cups or souvenir baseballs thrown onto the field. Or in the case of Barry Bonds, by counting the number of batteries in the outfield.

By Lew

November 1, 2006 11:33 AM | Link to this

Grinch-I know you were being sarcastic. So was I.

By TennesseePaul

November 1, 2006 11:36 AM | Link to this

The Mets have made that offer. Glavine hasn’t said no to anyone yet, but will more than likely say no to his family.
All of this was supposed to hinge on the wife and kids. They say, yes Daddy, play for the home team. Stay with us the whole year. We already have millions. Glavine hears them and tells everyone he will heed their wishes. Then some one shows him a lot of money and the union line and he rushes in like Pavlov’s dog.

By ncscoots

November 1, 2006 11:36 AM | Link to this

Grinch, I’m shattered! I certainly do not dislike you, quite the reverse, I consider you a fine contributor to this blog. But I’ve always felt that you should be able to speak forthrightly to your friends (and good acquaintances) without fear of disrupting the friendship (or acquaintanceship). I hope that was the case in our last conversation.

As far as other folks berating Shaun unmercifully for a different point of view (regardless of validity), I do find it distressing when the dialogue devolves into personal characterizations. But I feel that way on all topics and posters, not just Shaun and sabermetrics. I do give the guy credit for this: bashed and insulted though he may be on countless occasions, I have never seen him resort to a like response. That shows a lot more self-control than I have displayed on this blog, and deserves a tip of the hat (which I’ll give him if he promises never to bring up VORP again, LOL).

By hk

November 1, 2006 11:38 AM | Link to this

… hi jimmy, Carolina Lady, guys …

… I’m still here, tend to hibernate in the off-season :))

… you all have talked back and forth all season long about the value of statistics, are they really worth fooling with, etc … well, as much as I love computers and the internet, I am continually amazed at how naive people are about computer analysis … I learned a long tome ago that number crunching must be balanced with very large doses of intuition, gut feel … primary example, the BCS football thing … the AP, Coaches and Harris polls line up almost exactly on the top 25 teams, but the 6 ‘experts’ who do the computer rankings are all over the place … I have been trying for a while to come up with a graphic that would show it, but the numbers are so convoluted, it takes some converting … finally came up with a chart that shows it pretty good, here it is ..

http://www.mindspring.com/~hk3/bcs.htm

…. the computer evaluations are clearly worthless, and the thing is, big big money decisions are made with this thing, who goes to what bowl, recruiting advantages, etc etc … and the same biases are always there week after week, Big 10, Pac 10 and Notre Dame rated too high, SEC to low, Boise State type teams too high …

… each week during football season I excercise my ‘guesser’ picking spreads on the college football games … then I see what the the gambling odds are, then see how it turns out … I trust them most of all, because they are totally money driven … their top 25 rankings are even better than AP, Coaches, Harris, the best combination of analysis and gut feel …

… and these six guys are supposed to be the best !!! … here’s a summary chart of 90 something other football computer rankings …

http://www.mratings.com/cf/compare.htm

… talk about all over the place :))

… by the way, for you Firefox enthusiasts, 2.0 is available and is terrific, and it has a spell check option that you can use right here on this blog !!! … just right-click / “spell check this field” … here’s the download link:

http://www.mozilla.com/en-US/firefox/all.html

… works great !!!

By nathan

November 1, 2006 11:41 AM | Link to this

Here’s a “hairbrainded” idea, guys. Here me out, before you FREAK OUT. LOL!

Any chance JS trades Andruw to the Yanks for Sheffield (as a 1 year replacement for his bat), moves Francoeur to CF, and still tries to find a LF/leadoff Hitter?

We are OBVIOUSLY not going to be able to afford Andruw after next year, and if some pitching could be thrown in on the deal (from the Yankees to us, of course), why not? Other than the fact that Sheff is kind of (alright, more than kind of) a whiner. If healthy he’s still a better “hitter” than Andruw. Defensively, we probably would be “down-grading” a bit, but if JS is looking to move Andruw and replace his power, again, why not?

If Andruw was to be moved, I say find a LF/leadoff hitter (that would help considerably), then put Langerhans in CF, and let him bat 8th. Yes, thats a BIG drop off vs. Andruw’s production, but defensively not a big dropoff, IMO. Plus with the money we’d be “saving” by not paying Andruw, JS would more than likely upgrade the pitching staff, so what’s the problem with having a ALL Defense - NO hit, Centerfielder? I say NOTHING at all, just so long as we find that leadoff hitter. (Gregor Blanco?)

By rammerjammer

November 1, 2006 11:46 AM | Link to this

Did anyone else notice that Greg Maddux filed for free agency?

Interesting NY article theorized that Glavine has decided to pitch TWO years, rather than one, for the Mets because conventional wisdom is that Maddux will retire after the coming season…and Glavine doesn’t want to be on the HOF ballot when Maddux is on it.

Here’s the link: http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/story/467196p-393178c.html

By Lew

November 1, 2006 11:58 AM | Link to this

Nathan-Andruw will not play for a “cold weather team”. He will reject a trade to NY or Boston. It won’t happen.

By ncscoots

November 1, 2006 11:59 AM | Link to this

nathan, I see nothing wrong with having one outfielder who mainly contributes defense. But if that’s in CF, wouldn’t you want run production from both your corner outfielders? Otherwise, I think you would need run production from one of the middle infield spots, and that would be a much more difficult task than finding another outfielder who bangs.

By Carolina Lady

November 1, 2006 12:00 PM | Link to this

Hey, HK! Great to see you back again! Hope you and yours are hale and hearty! You’ve been missed. :-)

By Carolina Lady

November 1, 2006 12:05 PM | Link to this

Nathan, you’ve missed the points that Andruw is NOT going to be traded - he has veto power and is emphatic that he WILL play in ATL in ‘07. And he has repeatedly said he does NOT want to go anywhere cold. Yep, anything ignoring this could be called ‘harebrained’. And I sure don’t want Mr Popup/flyout Sheffield back - at any price! Other than that, it’s a great idea!! :-)))

By sam doughty

November 1, 2006 12:06 PM | Link to this

Andruw or his agent would be wise to work up a deal with the Red Sox. He would be a perfect fit at Fenway.

Sam Doughty Rockwood, Tennessee

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 12:17 PM | Link to this

I actually don’t mean to berate anybody if that’s how it sounds. So don’t take offense to anything I say. We’re just debating. I might throw out the occational ignorant or dense but that’s how my buddies and I talk sports.

But I will say, Shaun, you don’t admit to being wrong ever. And this time, it’s obvious. There’s been times you have made very ggod arguments, but not on this one.

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 12:22 PM | Link to this

Gary Sheffield is a cancer. He has already said there will be issues if he gets traded without an extention. He can’t play defense, he can’t hit in the post season. No thanks.

By The Grinch

November 1, 2006 12:24 PM | Link to this

Glad to see you’re not mad, scoots; you’re a fine fellow. I poked a little fun at you the other night and then said something to the effect of “I’m just messin’ with ya, dude; let’s be friends.” Since I didn’t hear anthing back I thought you might be ill. I agree about Shaun’s unusual level of calm, and of course nobody really likes to be insulted, I was just under the impression that since he continues many times a day to cut and paste people’s comments and refute them (as well as putting forth more of the same things that drew the insults in the first place) and has been doing so at least as long as I’ve been here, it probably doesn’t bother him all that much or he wouldn’t keep doing it. And no, Shaun, I’m not trying to talk as if you’re not here. Feel free to step up and contribute whatever you wish to the discussion. I think you’re a good guy, I just sometimes get amazed and frustrated at what I percieve to be your inability to factor any sort of emotional or human element to the game and/or its fans.

HK, good to see you back. The college football ranking system drives me insane. Off to the gym; I’ll holla at y’all later.

By rammerjammer

November 1, 2006 12:30 PM | Link to this

Only way Andruw’s traded is if he and his agent think his value is higher now than it will be after next season.

That’s their risk. He could always get injured, or slump at the plate or the field.

Wait. Now that I think of it, the risk is all Andruw’s, not Boros’ (agents are GREAT at risking other people’s money).

If AJ slumps in 2007, it’ll cost HIM a lot more than Boros, who has other clients to keep him very wealthy.

If I was AJ, I’d go for the sure thing that exists now - while my worth has never been higher - and have my agent tell certain teams (Dodgers, Angels, in particular) that I could join them for the right package.

You ask, why should the L.A. teams trade away quality players to get Andruw when they can wait a year, buy him, and keep their players? He’s gonna cost the same regardless.

Because, the Dodgers and Angels may be thinking they need him to win NOW. Who’s got time to wait for 2008? So that’s their motivation to covertly work out something with AJ.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 12:31 PM | Link to this

Now of course there are many plays in baseball as there is a play for every pitch in a game. But there are only a few game changing plays. And it’s very possible to have just one game changing play! And those plays described by Lew were the game changing plays of those games. Hell, the Lonnie Smith play and the Puckett catch and later homer could be called series changing plays.

But, those are just sensational plays that are important, but really they are each only one play. Puckett’s catch and homer, as amazing as they were, were just one out and one run. Lonnie Smith being fooled was just him advancing one base. Yes, the game or series could have turned out differently had things been different on those plays, but there are several other plays that you can say the same thing about. What if Mark Lemke gets thrown out on Jerry Willard’s sac fly? What if the umpire makes the right call on the Hrbek play. No one play loses or wins a ball game by itself.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 12:44 PM | Link to this

I just sometimes get amazed and frustrated at what I percieve to be your inability to factor any sort of emotional or human element to the game and/or its fans.

I don’t doubt at all that emotional and human elements play a role in the game. But don’t you think emotional and human elements would show up in the evidence of player performance (i.e., the numbers)? I mean, if you play well because you really like the manager or you just got a new car or you just got married or something, don’t you think your stats will be better?

I know there are some limitations to stats because stats are much like language. Language can’t re-create reality, but they can do a pretty good job of it. And many of the stats we know about are largely indicative of what a player is worth in terms of winning and losing games.

By nathan

November 1, 2006 12:47 PM | Link to this

Lew, I had forgot that Andruw said no “cold weather teams”

Carolina Lady, YES, Andruw has said he will veto any trade. But he has also said as recently as last month, that if the Braves did come to him with trade proposal, that he would take that as not being “wanted” and would be open to listening. All he has emphatically stated is that he WANTS to be a Brave. But Mr. Boras just made it pretty clear to the world that the Braves as we know them today, will not be able to AFFORD him. That is unless they want to commit about 20 percent of their payroll (80 million) to one person. And I don’t care if that player was none other than JESUS CHRIST (pick your god if neccessary - don’t want to offend anybody), he wouldn’t be worth 1/4 of total payroll. Would He?

HE HAS TO BE TRADED, or signed at a discount (the latter is on him), because we can’t afford to just let him walk. And you can mark it down, if we offer him arbitration, he’s gonna pull a Maddux and win about 22 million in arbitration. That would SUCK!

In reality, I think when push comes to shove, he will stay in Atlanta at a BACKLOADED, Tim Hudson kind of deal, which will be great for both Andruw and us (short term), but in about 3 years when his knees and back are shot, it will make the Hampton and Chipper contracts look like heaven.

Just my opinion.

BB Fan, YES Sheffield is a CANCER, and NO, I’m not for bringing him back…..AT ALL. But if Andruw were to get traded and JS didn’t bring in a significant power threat, the city of ATL would freak out. I wouldn’t. If we traded Andruw and spent that money on a leadoff hitter and more bullpen help, I’d be fine with it. We have enough power in this lineup, and it’s only going to increase as the youngsters gain more experience. Why is everybody obsessed with the BIG BOPPERS? Isn’t what we all just witnessed (OK, about 10 people in the country actually watched, but…), enough to show that ALL teams could use a few less power hitters and a few more Eckstein’s?

L8R all.

By TennesseePaul

November 1, 2006 12:48 PM | Link to this

No one play loses or wins a ball game by itself
1988 Kirk Gibson on two bum legs hits a homerun which swings the momentum of the entire searies from the heavily favored, statistically supirior A’s to the underdogs. Dodgers win. 1 play. 1 play affected 4 games. It’s hard sometimes Payne. But not all things can be easily catagorized or referenced. Somethings are not quantifiable. Some things do not appear in the numbers. Something you can never learn by simply reading the numbers. Playing baseball, for instance, is something you cannot learn how to do by reading the stats.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 12:54 PM | Link to this

You just don’t get it!

NOT ALL DEFENSIVE VALUE OR EVEN OFFENSIVE VALUE CAN BE FOUND IN NUMBERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I EVEN GAVE YOU THE DEFINITION OF INTANGIBLES BUT YOU STILL GO BACK AND SAY STATS TELLS YOU WHAT A TEAM OR PLAYER DOES OR DOESN”T DO! BLAH, BLAH, BLAH!

STATS DO NOT SHOW INTANGIBLES!!!!!

INTANGIBLES ARE THINGS THAT CAN NOT BE DEFINED OR MEASURED!!!!!!

Again, I agree that there are limitations to stats; they are a lot like language. And language is not reality. Still, stats do a pretty good job and telling us how valuable a player is in terms of wins and losses.

And again, don’t you think intangibles show up in the stats? If you feeling good, don’t you think you’ll hit better and you’re batting average would increase?

Stats are the best evidence we’ve got. You do have to factor in other things like ballpark, etc., but the stats we have now do a pretty good job of indicating what a player is worth in terms of wins and losses.

By Mike

November 1, 2006 12:59 PM | Link to this

If Andruw must be traded to the Yanks why not ask for the Shefield, melkey cabrera, and a minor league pitcher?

Thoughts?

By rammerjammer

November 1, 2006 01:00 PM | Link to this

Shaun,

You’re right that those defensive gems and home runs are just one play each, for one out or one run or one “whatever.”

How, though, to manage the emotional impact a certain play has on both teams? What does a walk-off homer do to the psyche of both teams? How about blown saves, such as those accumulated by our beloved Braves this past summer?

What carryover does it have for the next play; indeed, the next pitch? Or how about the next game or two or three?

That’s the intangible aspect of all sports that can’t be measured. The games are played by people, not computers, and people respond very differently than software.

By nathan

November 1, 2006 01:01 PM | Link to this

Shaun

Here’s where I get wishy-washy on my agreeing/disagreeing with you.

Kind of like the “intabibles” arguement earlier, the one thing you aren’t factoring in, is MOMENTUM. You can’t possibly ignore that, can you. You can’t tell me it doesn’t exist, it does.

Look at the Bartman play. look at Bucknor, look at Jose Lind in 92, look at Jermaine Dye in 96. How about Rocker allowing the HR to Helton on the last day of the season that allowed St. Louis to have home field instead of us? Come on! Yeah, one play doesn’t decide the outcome, even if it’s a walk off HR. True that HR “ends” the game, but maybe the game was tied 6-6 when it was hit, those other 6 runs happened at some point, right? See, that’s where I agree with you ALL pitches, catches, hits, swings and misses, balls, strikes, umpire correct calls, umpires blown calls, steals, caught stealings, errors, pick offs, etc…… play into the outcome of the game. But we live in the ESPN era, where everybody assumes that the “highlights” are what decided the overall outcome and situations.

But momentum is somthing that can’t be ignored. Yes Hrbek pulling Gant off the bag was only one out, but you can’t start a rally after 3 outs are recorded, can you? So had that “out” not occured, somebody else would’ve been given an opportunity to hit. Had Alou caught the ball that Bartman interfered with, there would’ve been one less out to “play with” that inning.

Speaking of “game changing moments” that never happened (or almost happened). Does anybody remember Justice just missing a MONSTER homerun in the Metrodome in games six of the 91 WS? It was an upper deck bomb that just barely went foul. Talk about momentum shifters…..oh well.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 01:01 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

I played baseball from the time I was 7 through high school. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that knowing what I’ve learned from some “sabermetric” books and articles would have helped me become a better player.

As far as the Kirk Gibson homer, other things also made a difference in that series. The Dodgers probably wouldn’t have won without Orel Hershiser pitching as well as he did. That was only game one. I’m sure you can find other games in World Series history where a moment could have sucked the life out of a team, but the team came back to win the series. Again, baseball’s a team game. No one play alone makes the difference in a game or a series.

By ncscoots

November 1, 2006 01:05 PM | Link to this

Grinch, no sweat. The fact is, I seldom contribute to the blog over any lengthy period of time anymore, so I probably missed your no-doubt-witty retort the other day :-). I find the blog threads much more difficult to follow these days with the blog mechanics as they are, delays and whatnot, so often I’ll just post, hope it gets through, and go on my merry way. I have become very tired of posting a response to some issue only to see four other people posted the same thing during the infamous 5-min delay, so sometimes I just don’t bother any more, with the result that I frequent the blog less often and for shorter periods of time. In any event, if I HAD seen your post in question, I’d have known you were just messin’ with me…

By nathan

November 1, 2006 01:09 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul

How did that game get to extra innings? How did the bases get loaded? Are you telling me that in a 4 hour baseball game, that was the ONLY play that determined the outcome of that game? NOPE, it’s just the highlight that gets shown 300 times a year.

I can agree that in a momentum swing it “affected” the A’s for the rest of the series. But that homer didn’t do ANYTHING BUT WIN ONE GAME in that series. I don’t think they were allowed to count any of those runs in the other 3 games. LOL!

ALL teams handle things differently. How else do you explain the Braves TROUNCING the Yankees in games 1 & 2 in 1996? Those two games didn’t “help” them win the others, did it? Every night is a NEW game.

Now speaking of 1996, in both the NLCS and WS, the PRESSURE of choking was probably in the heads of the two teams respectively (Cardinals in NLCS & Braves in WS). But single plays from any of the other games can’t possibly (no matter how much you want to pretend they do) have ANYTHING to do with the physical outcome of another game. Mentally, different story.

By TennesseePaul

November 1, 2006 01:12 PM | Link to this

And again, don’t you think intangibles show up in the stats?

No they don’t. That’s why they are called intangibles. That’s been the point the whole time, that they don’t show up in the stats.

By TennesseePaul

November 1, 2006 01:19 PM | Link to this

Are you telling me that in a 4 hour baseball game, that was the ONLY play that determined the outcome of that game?

The point is, one play can change the out come of the game. A game can hing on one play. The entire game is made up of a series of consecutive plays. Change one in that series and it affects the out come of that game. So it is a mis-statement to say one play cannot change the outcome of a game. I listed one play that changed the out come of a game. You can list another. It doesn’t detract from the fact that one play can change the out come of a game.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 01:20 PM | Link to this

nathan,

Momentum may matter, but I’m sure there are plenty of counter-examples against momentum—how about St. Louis and Detroit this year during the last month of the regular season, to name a couple?

By TennesseePaul

November 1, 2006 01:23 PM | Link to this

But single plays from any of the other games can’t possibly (no matter how much you want to pretend they do) have ANYTHING to do with the physical outcome of another game. Mentally, different story

So are you saying a play from the previous day has no affect on todays game? So Beltran would be caught looking for that fastball again had he another game to play? I’d venture a guess, that he would not. That that one play, striking out with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth of game 7, would have affected the way Beltran approached the plate if he could do it all over again.

Mentally different story? So the mental part of the game does not affect the physical part of the game? Explain that to Rick Ankiel.

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 01:25 PM | Link to this

Shaun,

“Lonnie Smith being fooled was just him advancing one base.”

He would have scored in a 0-0 game in the 8th inning of game 7 that ended 1-0 in 10 innings! How the hell can you say that it was just one base????

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 01:29 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

Exactly. Just like the mental part of the game affects the physical, the mental part of the game affects what numbers a player puts up.

By TennesseePaul

November 1, 2006 01:30 PM | Link to this

I played baseball from the time I was 7 through high school. There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that knowing what I’ve learned from some “sabermetric” books and articles would have helped me become a better player.

I have yet to meet a man who knows how to steal a base from reading stats. Who knows how to hit a knucklball from reading stats. Who knows the correct routes to fly balls from reading stats. Who knows how to recognize a pitch, from reading stats. Who knows the best way to turn a double play, from reading stats. I could go on and on.

By TennesseePaul

November 1, 2006 01:35 PM | Link to this

Payne: So can you tell me from stats from the 1920’s if a player had a mental issue or was just bad? When it comes to player evaluation, the stats don’t tell the whole story. And intangibles still don’t show up in the stats. Intangibles are no quantifiable. You can’t build a stat off of them.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 01:36 PM | Link to this

BB FAN,

Maybe Lonnie Smith would have scored. But Minnesota still got last at-bat. And Atlanta still had three other games they could have won.

And you bring up things like the Lonnie Smith play, but I’m sure you can find hundreds of examples throughout baseball history where someone made a mistake like that but their team still won. No one remembers those.

Just like the Bill Buckner play—the game was already tied by that point. What about the failure of the Red Sox relievers? What about the fact that there was still a game seven?

What about the Carlton Fisk game 6 of the 1975 series? Why didn’t the Sox carry that momentum into game 7?

One play does not a series or even game make.

By 2007 Mets

November 1, 2006 01:40 PM | Link to this

There are plays/hits that determine the outcome of a game and there are some that don’t. For example, a player can hit 35 homers with only a handful determing the outcome of the game. I remember Bobby Bonilla hitting lots of homers for the Mets but most of them came when the Mets were far ahead or far behind. When the game was on the line he failed most of the time. A team needs 8-10 (Including pitchers) ” Money Players” to have success.

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 01:43 PM | Link to this

Shaun,

“No one play alone makes the difference in a game or a series.”

See Lew’s post (November 1, 2006 10:53 AM).

“And again, don’t you think intangibles show up in the stats? If you feeling good, don’t you think you’ll hit better and you’re batting average would increase?”

It’s not just about feeling good. That’s not an intangible we are talking about. Again, see Lew’s post @ 10:53 AM. He described what we are talking about very well.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 01:43 PM | Link to this

I have yet to meet a man who knows how to steal a base from reading stats. Who knows how to hit a knucklball from reading stats. Who knows the correct routes to fly balls from reading stats. Who knows how to recognize a pitch, from reading stats. Who knows the best way to turn a double play, from reading stats. I could go on and on.

So what’s your point? I didn’t say that reading books about stats could help you do those things. But they give you a better understanding of other things. One example, I would have realized the importance of taking a walk instead of trying to always make contact even on pitches I couldn’t do anything with.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 01:48 PM | Link to this

So can you tell me from stats from the 1920’s if a player had a mental issue or was just bad? When it comes to player evaluation, the stats don’t tell the whole story. And intangibles still don’t show up in the stats. Intangibles are no quantifiable. You can’t build a stat off of them.

No, you can’t necessarily say a player hit x number of homers because he had a mental breakdown. But obviously mental breakdowns do show up in the stats—Ankiel’s walks increased because of his mental state. Mental breakdowns could explain why a players stats aren’t as good. And players’ stats are an indication, I would argue the best indication, of how valuable a player is to his team in terms of contributing to winning and losing.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 02:02 PM | Link to this

By Lew

November 1, 2006 10:53 AM | Link to this

Shaun-I really don’t care how much hard work these statisticians do. There are some aspects of the game that are virtually impossible to quantify. What about Francoeur catching a ball in right with a runner on third who does NOT score because Francoeur’s arm is feared? All that goes into the stat base is a putout by Francoeur. But that run could have easily been the difference between a win and a loss. How about if Marcus makes a diving catch in the hole at 2nd, thereby keeping the ball in the infield and denying the runner an extra base? Or Langerhans going up and over the wall to take away a HR? None of these instances would be recorded as anything but a putout for the fielder. If Marcus couldn’t throw out the runner at first, then he wouldn’t even get a putout. But all of these scenarios lead to a run NOT being sdcored. In a one run game, that would be the difference between a win and a loss. Totally unquantifiable, but lead to a win nonetheless. Sorry, Dude, stats just don’t always tell the whole story. You can make inferences using stats, but they do nothing for intangible aspects of a game. Not to mention psychological aspects. That great play might be all a pitcher needs to calm down and focus. No, stats don’t tell the whole story, thereby making your statistical analysis flawed in many situations. Defense is one of those situations.

Yes, stats are imperfect, which is why I say stats largely indicate player performance. And there are a lot of meaningless stats out there. But those situations you describe aren’t all that common. Sometimes situations like this lead to runs, but how many runs do those situations lead to? Mostly the game comes down to things that can be measured. The things that can’t be measured, usually don’t make much difference. Here’s an excerpt from Baseball Between the Numbers, once again:

…apart from the bonus effects of plate discipline, it’s probably folly for a club to go looking for clutch hitters — the ability just isn’t important enough in the bigger scheme of things. Producing wins at the plate is about 70 percent a matter of overall hitting ability, 28 percent dumb luck, and perhaps 2 percent clutch- or situational-hitting skill.

Clutch hitting ability exists, more than previous research would indicate. It’s about on the order of something like baserunning ability. Sometimes baserunning can make the difference between success and failure. Sometimes a hitter like David Ortiz gets a bunch of big hits down the stretch, and it makes the difference in a pennant race. Usually, though, it’s the big three that prevail: Pitch the ball, catch the ball, and most of all hit the ball.

By TennesseePaul

November 1, 2006 02:05 PM | Link to this

So what’s your point?
There is absolutely no doubt in my mind that knowing what I’ve learned from some “sabermetric” books and articles would have helped me become a better player.
One example, I would have realized the importance of taking a walk instead of trying to always make contact even on pitches I couldn’t do anything with

Payne: It is not necessary to view stats to understand this concept, or act on it. Some people learn in different ways. Apparently you need the numbers to see why swinging at balls in the dirt is a bad way to play the game. That’s fine. So beit. My point was, stats are not going to teach how to play the game. They may assist you in formulating strategy, but the execution of that strategy comes from practice and actually playing the game.

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 02:06 PM | Link to this

Shaun,

I’m sure the Buckner play played a role in the player’s psyche in game seven in ‘86.

The Fisk homer could have carried the Sox to the title, but there was other’s plays that swung the momentum to the Reds. It may have been Griffey’s stolen base that lead to a run, or maybe when two Red Sox struck out in the 3rd inning when they scored 3 runs instead of 4 or 5, who knows. But that is an example of how the momentum can change quickly.

The human pysche is very fragile. Sure, some have a stronger pysche than others, but the human mind is powerful. It can make the worst hitter look like a star for a series or it can make the best hitter look like a scrub. The human pysche plays a big role at times. Baseball is a game about inches and if the ball falls just right for a playe or team, it can really propel them one way or another. That’s where momentum comes in.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 02:15 PM | Link to this

BB FAN,

So you’re telling me that the Buckner play affected the Red Sox in a negative way more than the Fisk homer affected the Red Sox in a positive way? I just don’t buy it. Maybe, but seems unlikely.

By TennesseePaul

November 1, 2006 02:15 PM | Link to this

One play does not a series or even game make.

You’re still wrong on this.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 02:20 PM | Link to this

It is not necessary to view stats to understand this concept, or act on it. Some people learn in different ways. Apparently you need the numbers to see why swinging at balls in the dirt is a bad way to play the game. That’s fine. So beit. My point was, stats are not going to teach how to play the game. They may assist you in formulating strategy, but the execution of that strategy comes from practice and actually playing the game.

That was just one example. Reading books about stats has given me a better overall understanding of the game. True, I still would have needed coaches that probably never read any books without pictures, but why not learn from as many sources as possible?

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 02:24 PM | Link to this

I have yet to meet a man who knows how to steal a base from reading stats.

But you can learn when the best situation is to steal a base.

Who knows how to hit a knucklball from reading stats. Who knows the correct routes to fly balls from reading stats. Who knows how to recognize a pitch, from reading stats. Who knows the best way to turn a double play, from reading stats. I could go on and on.

Stats can’t give you athletic ability or muscle memory, but they can give you a better overall understanding of the game.

By Stinky

November 1, 2006 02:27 PM | Link to this

Which reporter was it who suggested offering Glavine 7 to 8 mill to get his 300th win? I’m trying to think.

His idea was to offer him that much because Glavine had a 3mill buyout on this year’s contract (never mind that the 3 mill buyout was essentially deffered compensation for a restructured contract).

I wonder which media “proffesional” could be so clueless so as to speculate something out into space like one of his bloggers who got into Dad’s stash of light beer.

I wonder.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 02:27 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

So I’m wrong that baseball’s a team game and that one player should not be credited or blamed for winning or losing a game?

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 02:39 PM | Link to this

Stats can not see the affect that a great defensive play to save runs in the top of an inning can boost the human psyche and lead a team to score in the bottom half of an inning.

And those plays described by Lew are common in baseball. They happen every day.

Pitch the ball, catch the ball, and hit the ball are key components of the game. But a brilliant defensive play can lead to better pitching and better hitting and vice versa.

“Baseball Between the Numbers” saying …apart from the bonus effects of plate discipline, it’s probably folly for a club to go looking for clutch hitters does not mean it’s true.

There are plenty of “clutch hitters” throughout history. A hero out of nowhere happens in the post season just about every year. Justice, Lemke, Speizio all come to mind. Stars coming up big in big games are Jeter, Rose, Andruw Jones in the last 2 post seasons as well as ‘96. Jack Morris, John Smoltz are two big game pitchers. Hell, Suppan and Weaver were clutch this year. Rogers was as well for Detroit. It can be for a short period of time that it seems like they are not human.

By TennesseePaul

November 1, 2006 02:40 PM | Link to this

I still would have needed coaches that probably never read any books without pictures

Why? What’s with the desdain for baseball authority? Or the need for the blanket statements and belittlment that is dished out to these individuals. Stuff like that does more to hurt your own arguement than to help it.

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 02:42 PM | Link to this

The momentum idea was big this year. Once Detroit stole one from the Yankees, they went to sweep the A’s. Then they sat for 6 or 7 days. The Cardinals came off from an emotional high from beating the Mets in game 7 to beat the Tigers in the WS. If the Tigers did not have to sit for 6 days, they likely would have won the WS this year.

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 02:44 PM | Link to this

When I say stole one from the Yankees, I meant one game at Yankee stadium. That was the turning point. Then they went on to win both games in Detroit and then swept the A’s.

By TennesseePaul

November 1, 2006 02:46 PM | Link to this

So I’m wrong that baseball’s a team game and that one player should not be credited or blamed for winning or losing a game?

I don’t know where that came from but, yes. You are wrong. Partial credit though. Baseball is a team game. However, one guy can lose the game. And, one player is credited with the win. That player is the pitcher.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 02:49 PM | Link to this

There are plenty of “clutch hitters” throughout history. A hero out of nowhere happens in the post season just about every year. Justice, Lemke, Speizio all come to mind. Stars coming up big in big games are Jeter, Rose, Andruw Jones in the last 2 post seasons as well as ‘96. Jack Morris, John Smoltz are two big game pitchers. Hell, Suppan and Weaver were clutch this year. Rogers was as well for Detroit. It can be for a short period of time that it seems like they are not human.

Lots of stuff can happen in a small sample of at-bats. But I’m not going to open up the whole clutch hitting can of worms.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 02:52 PM | Link to this

Why? What’s with the desdain for baseball authority? Or the need for the blanket statements and belittlment that is dished out to these individuals. Stuff like that does more to hurt your own arguement than to help it.

I have no disdain for baseball authority. I’ve had some very smart coaches. My point is that to get a better understanding of the game, it’s good to pay attention to all sides—the people who have played, the people who crunch numbers, the people who do nothing but watch games, etc. It would be stupid to ignore anyone who knows a lot about baseball techniques or baseball stats.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 02:54 PM | Link to this

The momentum idea was big this year. Once Detroit stole one from the Yankees, they went to sweep the A’s. Then they sat for 6 or 7 days. The Cardinals came off from an emotional high from beating the Mets in game 7 to beat the Tigers in the WS. If the Tigers did not have to sit for 6 days, they likely would have won the WS this year.

Why didn’t the Tigers gain any momentum from the Kenny Rogers start in the World Series? The Yankees won a game, why didn’t they gain any momentum from that? Why didn’t the Twins have any momentum from finishing the season hot? I don’t think momentum plays much of a role in winning and losing. I could be wrong, but it doesn’t seem to. For every example for it there are also plenty of counter examples against it.

By Stinky

November 1, 2006 02:57 PM | Link to this

According to Paul Harvey, one dollar spent in New York is worth 61 cents of what it is, on average, anywhere else in the US. I feel so much better knowing that A-Rod is only making 15 mill instead of 25 mill. Maybe AJ should think about that.

But I’m glad Glavine made the mistake. And I know his ex-wife has a lawyer with his stones in a vice. Good to know there’s justice in the world.

By Shaun

November 1, 2006 03:02 PM | Link to this

So I’m wrong that baseball’s a team game and that one player should not be credited or blamed for winning or losing a game?

I don’t know where that came from but, yes. You are wrong. Partial credit though. Baseball is a team game. However, one guy can lose the game. And, one player is credited with the win. That player is the pitcher.

The pitcher is credited with a win or a loss but he’s not soley responsible for winning and losing, which is why wins and losses don’t necessarily tell you too much about how much a pitcher helps you win.

One player cannot win or lose a game. For every one play that supposedly wins or losses a game, there are several other plays that affect the outcome of that same game. Sure, one play made it more likely or less likely that a team would win or lose, but one play doesn’t make the difference.

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 03:04 PM | Link to this

Shaun,

“So you’re telling me that the Buckner play affected the Red Sox in a negative way more than the Fisk homer affected the Red Sox in a positive way? I just don’t buy it. Maybe, but seems unlikely.”

It is because great plays or mistakes can swing momentum, that it is possible to have it swung the other way so easily. You are right in the fact that there is more than one great play or mistake in a game. It’s the last one that counts though because that’s the end of the momentum shift.

If Gant or Bream came through in the clutch after Smith failed to score on the double then the momentum would have swung back to the Braves.

Or in ‘96 when Grissom missed the fly ball in the 1-0 game Smoltz picthed against Pettitte. I think it was game 5. That may have swung the momentum back to the Braves.

In the ‘75 WS, if Fisk would have thrown Griffey out at second, the momentum could have stayed with the Red Sox. Instead, Griffey scored on a single and tied the score.

It’s because the human psyche is so fragile that makes it possible for the momentum to shift back and forth from one great play or mistake to another.

By rammerjammer

November 1, 2006 03:05 PM | Link to this

I’m fine that Glavine’s not coming back. Don’t want Maddux either. That’s the past, not the future. Glad they were here, no animosity whatsoever. But it’d be foolhardy to try and recreate something that’s gone forever. The baton’s been passed.

By rammerjammer

November 1, 2006 03:18 PM | Link to this

It’s not just the money, it’s the appearance of being at the top that matters to Glavine.

All things financial being equal, his stature in NY is much larger than it would be in Atl.

The fact that he wants to retire a year after Maddux quits tells me he’s VERY aware of appearances, and doesn’t want to be in anyone’s shadow, be it NY, Atl or Cooperstown.

By Lew

November 1, 2006 03:31 PM | Link to this

I really can’t believe that this discussion is still going on after over 5 hours. Shaun is holding forth against the rest of the known world, as usual. Shaun-Yes, the Buckner play affected the Red Sox more negatively than the Fisk HR did positively. The Fisk HR did not lead to a win, but the Sox lost the Series because of that one play. I know you will dispute this, but I’m pretty sure you’ll be the only one who does.

By TennesseePaul

November 1, 2006 03:37 PM | Link to this

One player cannot win or lose a game. For every one play that supposedly wins or losses a game, there are several other plays that affect the outcome of that same game. Sure, one play made it more likely or less likely that a team would win or lose, but one play doesn’t make the difference.

Mark DeRosa. In one game he committed 4 errors allowing 5 runs to score. Maybe the offense is to blame for not making up the difference. That same game, DeRo came to the plate with runners on and/or in scoring position 3 times. Enough potential RBIs to erase his folly. He struck out and grounded into two Double Plays, killing the rallies before they could get started. He lost that game and his job.
Kyle Farnsworth comes into the game with a 5 run lead and manages to blow it by giving up a grandslam and a solo homer. He lost that game. One player can lose a game.

I’ll repeat this again, incase you missed it. Baseball games are a series of consecutive plays. Change one play in the series, and the end result is affected. One play affects the game. Disagreeing with the play some one purposes affected the game, and saying it was a different play, doesn’t change this fact. Terms like Domino Affect and Chain Reaction come to mind. One event sets the whole system in motion towards a particular goal. Sure, the system could of gone another way and prevented the eventual outcome by hitting a different factor while in motion. But it didn’t. That one event is still the responsible action for the resulting cause.

By 2007 Mets

November 1, 2006 03:58 PM | Link to this

When Buckner botched that ball the game was already tied by a wild pitch that allowed the tying run in that same at bat. This means that Buckner could not have won the game with a clean play. The pitcher cost them a win and this is something that seems always to be overlooked.

By ncscoots

November 1, 2006 04:00 PM | Link to this

I find it interesting that intangibles, momentum, players’ mental strength or fragility, etc., ALL things which can ONLY be inferred and are purely a matter of subjective perception, are being used as an argument against the use of stats to infer players’ or teams’ relative abilities. While I agree that all of these things exist, and in fact play a part in the outcomes of games, series, and seasons, they don’t negate the value of quantifiable measurements of players’ and teams’ abilities, at least on a relative scale (I’m less impressed with the raw numbers of some sabermetric analyses than with the potential to see how a team/player ranks compared to peers, i.e., are some teams/players vastly better than others at some part of the game). I’m not an expert on sabermetrics, nor do I think stats can tell you everything about a player or team, but I also know that somebody may perceive Player A as “mentally tough”, while I may perceive him merely dumb as a bag of hammers. My point is that you guys are driving the same road towards the same destination, in different-colored cars. Both sides of the argument rely on the interpretation of information (be it statistical or perceptual) and then taking action on the interpretation. In other words, inferring to h*ll and gone. I doubt Lew, BBFan, TPaul, Grinch, or anybody else, would put together a team without looking at SOME kind of statistical input, and I doubt Shaun would put together a team with just a calculator :-). Anyway, just found it interesting, especially since the disagreement has been so, well, vehement, at times.

By Carroll

November 1, 2006 04:04 PM | Link to this

I think the end of the streak is actually a blessing in disguise. Now, we can stop making silly moves (i.e., trading away young pitching talent for overrated, selfish retards), and we can also stop failing to make quality moves (like the Detroit Tigers have been making over the last few years which has enabled them to build a rock solid young team), all in the name of keeping that damnable streak alive.

To that end, We need to start by trading AJ and/or Chipper for some young power pitching…same goes for Gilly, Huddy, Hampton (if possible), and Renteria. And if the right deal presents itself, same goes for Smoltz…it pains me to even say that but let’s face it…we need the Smoltz of tommorrow (or the SMoltz of 15 years ago)…not the aging, fragile shell that is taking up a quarter of our limited payroll.

By The Grinch

November 1, 2006 04:12 PM | Link to this

Back again. Momentum doesn’t affect winning or losing? Whew! I’m not even gonna touch that one. It’s time to marinade.

By BB FAN

November 1, 2006 04:15 PM | Link to this

2007 Mets,

Yes, you are right, the game was tied. But if Buckner makes the play the Red Sox have a chance to win that game.

By The Grinch

November 1, 2006 04:22 PM | Link to this

Smoltz is making 8 million next year. That’s not a quarter of our payroll, or even close.

By 2007 Mets

November 1, 2006 04:29 PM | Link to this

I totally agree with you BB Fan but the key word is “Chance”. The Mets may have won it the next inning. We’ll never know but the point I was making is that Buckner became the scapegoat. What about the Manager? Why would you leave a player that was a defensive liability in when you have a lead late in extra innings? In fact there’s a strong possiblity that buckner doesn’t beat Mookie to the bag anyway with those bad feet.

By Lew

November 1, 2006 04:35 PM | Link to this

Scoots-You came into the conversation later than some of us. The whole subject started yesterday with Shaun’s assertion that a defensive player was only responsible for three wins per season, based on some obtuse formula. Most of us, siting intangibles, argued that you can’t quantify a defensive player’s worth by some formula that can’t, as a definition of itself, take intangibles into consideration. Dude, you’re totally missing the point. It has nothing whatsoever to do with the validity of statistics as a means of evaluation, but rather has to do with the fact that stats can’t possibly present the whole picture. And I’ve been nice in my responses, too. So there.

By Lew

November 1, 2006 04:50 PM | Link to this

Carroll-Not only does Smoltz only take up 1/10th of our salary, but if you add in the six games that the bullpen blew leads when Smoltz left the game ahead, he would have won more than 20 games this year and would likely have won his second Cy Young award. Also, Chipper, Andruw and Hampton will not be traded. You can’t trade either Andruw or Chipper without their approval, but Hampton’s salary would likely not appeal to another team. The days of firesale are hardly upon us, yet. You tend, also, to forget that we have a farm system of our own. We have not given everyone away as some seem to think. We just dumped Jeff Blauser, that’s all. If you want hope for the future, check out Matt Harrison, a pitcher and Eric Campbell, an infielder. There is still talent in the wings.

By ncscoots

November 1, 2006 04:55 PM | Link to this

Lew, gotcha. That’s what comes from listening to half a conversation, LOL. And the half I heard must have strayed some considerable amount from the initial issue! And, you, sir, are always the epitome of civility and gentility, IMHO!

By Carolina Lady

November 1, 2006 05:03 PM | Link to this

Y’all ever heard of arguing with a sign post???

By Lew

November 1, 2006 05:14 PM | Link to this

Scoots-I appreciate that, Dude, but I recall myself getting very nasty last week with Head Coach, who was lambasting Shaun. I really enjoy arguing with Shaun. I disagree with damn near everything he says, but he makes me think. Now straying- Do you really think we do that on this blog? I’ve been eating blueberry pie lately, how about yourself?

By Troy

November 1, 2006 05:14 PM | Link to this

Hey guys I am back after a fun filled morning of learning landscape design, just want to comment on Smoltz, NO Braves fan I repeat NO Braves fan should ever say anything bad about Smoltz. That guy is an AMAZING athlete, and has done numerous great things for this organization not to mention being the winningest postseason pitcher ever, as long as he can continue to perform he deserves to be in an Atlanta Braves Uniform

By Troy

November 1, 2006 05:20 PM | Link to this

blueberry pie sucks, left over Halloween candy for me

By Lew

November 1, 2006 05:20 PM | Link to this

Ma’am-Yes, I’ve also been guilty of arguing with brick walls.

By Troy

November 1, 2006 05:29 PM | Link to this

Does anyone subscribe to Baseball America, if so is it worth $90 a year?

By Lew

November 1, 2006 05:41 PM | Link to this

Troy-Dude, Halloween candy is fine, but if you want to blog with us, never say pie sucks. Or BBQ. Or music. Or banana pudding. You can say whatever you want about me, Scoots, Grinch or anyone else-just don’t put down pie.

By Troy

November 1, 2006 05:50 PM | Link to this

You got it Pie-Man, can I call you Pie-Man? BTW is this some sort of club or don’t we all share the common bond of being educated Braves fans.

By Metropolitan Man

November 1, 2006 05:50 PM | Link to this

Glavine likes Mets’ pitch

Near deal for 2 years, $25M

BY ADAM RUBIN DAILY NEWS SPORTS WRITER

Tom Glavine is ready to put Fame on hold and reenlist with Mets for two seasons.

TOKYO - Not only does Tom Glavine appear poised to remain a Met, he apparently intends to pitch in Flushing through the 2008 season. Glavine and the Mets are deep in discussions about a two-year, $25 million contract that should be completed shortly, a source told the Daily News.

When Glavine cleaned out his locker the day after the Mets’ Game 7 ouster in the NLCS, he indicated his family’s preference would be the primary factor in whether he remained a Met or returned to the Braves. Signing with Atlanta would allow Glavine to be near his wife, Christine, and his two sons at his home in Alpharetta, Ga.

“The only reason, really, that it’s even a question is my family,” Glavine said Oct. 20. Glavine also suggested that day that ‘07 would be his final season, provided he notched 10 more victories and reached the 300 plateau.

However, one other factor has since surfaced and appears to have altered the southpaw’s mindset. Glavine, who has shared a stage with John Smoltz and Greg Maddux throughout their distinguished major-league careers, would prefer not to enter the Hall of Fame in the same class as Maddux, according to a source. Maddux figures to retire after the ‘07 season, meaning Glavine would need to pitch through ‘08 to ensure they are in separate classes if both are elected on the first ballot.

For that reason, along with his rebirth as a pitcher, Glavine appears intent on pitching two more seasons as he nears his 41st birthday during spring training.

The Mets and Glavine each had options for the ‘07 season, but both sides had always portrayed the situation as a two-step partnership: First, Glavine would decide whether he wanted to return. Then the team and Glavine’s agents would work out a contract somewhere between the figures.

In mid-January, Glavine agreed to defer $3 million from his $10.5 million salary for ‘06. In turn, the sides added a pair of options - a team option for ‘07 that totals $14 million, and a player option that totals $7.5 million, with $3 million paid as a lump sum if neither is exercised.

Glavine is 48-48 with a 3.85 ERA in four seasons as a Met. He went 15-7 with a 3.82 ERA in 198 innings this past season. He also contributed 13 scoreless innings over his first two postseason starts, against the Dodgers and Cardinals.

The two-time Cy Young Award winner overcame an August scare that stemmed from coldness in his left ring finger. Glavine was able to treat that clotting condition that originated in his left shoulder with baby aspirin.

The Mets desperately wanted Glavine to return, especially minus Pedro Martinez for at least the first half of the 2007 season following rotator cuff surgery.

“I think he’s very important as far as the leadership of our staff - especially if you’re not going to have someone like a Pedro until later on - with some of the young players who might step in and maybe take over a spot in the rotation,” Willie Randolph said.

By Troy

November 1, 2006 05:54 PM | Link to this

Is there a difference between pie and cobbler?

By Metropolitan Man

November 1, 2006 05:55 PM | Link to this

November 1, 2006 — While Barry Zito is the premier left-handed free agent out there, the lefty the Mets have had for the last four years can be locked up to a one-year deal.

Tom Glavine owns a player option for $7.5 million. He has to decide by Nov. 10 to come back at that price. The Mets also own an option they can pick up by Nov. 20 for $14 million with a big All-Star bonus. Neither side will pick up their respective options.

“Tom wants to come back to the Mets,” his agent Gregg Clifton said yesterday. “He has some unfinished business with them. He wants to win a World Series with the Mets.”

The Mets will likely move quickly to get Glavine, who only needs 10 wins to reach 300 for his career, signed to a contract, possibly around $11 million. The Braves could entice Glavine to come back.

There is talk the Padres could become players for Zito, who is from San Diego. Zito is a big fan of Mets pitching coach Rick Peterson, which helps the Mets. Omar Minaya was not available to the media yesterday.

Rich Aurilia, a former St. John’s star, filed for free agency yesterday and is a possibility to wind up at second base for the Mets.

On the left-field wish list is free agent Alfonso Soriano, who still has his apartment in New York and has told friends he would love to be back here with the Mets.

By Metropolitan Man

November 1, 2006 05:56 PM | Link to this

October 31, 2006 — Playing for the Mets appeals to Adam Kennedy.

Kennedy, one of the elite options among free-agent second basemen this winter, has spent the last seven seasons with the Angels. He filed for free agency on Sunday, however, and yesterday his agent, Paul Cohen, said he has “definite interest” in the Mets.

This past year Kennedy hit .273 with four homers, 55 RBIs, 16 steals and a .334 on-base percentage for the Angels. Kennedy, who turns 31 in January, has fared well in the playoffs (he was the ALCS MVP in 2002 and has hit .308 in 25 career postseason games) and although he committed nine errors this year (tied for seventh among AL second basemen), he had the fewest among regular AL second basemen in 2005 (five).

Cohen, who said several teams have inquired about Kennedy so far, but the Mets have not. The agent added being on a “winning team” is Kennedy’s top priority.

According to Jose Valentin’s agent, Dave Elston, “The Mets and Jose are talking about Jose coming back.” Elston said the free agent second baseman has spoken with other teams, including one that has interest in using him at shortstop.

The Mets also have had interest in free-agent second baseman Julio Lugo, who told The Post in September that playing at Shea “would be a dream come true.”

Another second base option could be Rich Aurilia, whose agent, Barry Axelrod, said, “He’s a native of Staten Island and his prime criteria for where he wants to play is to be on a winner and I think the Mets fit that description.”

Did you think JS had this guy on his winter radar?????

By Lew

November 1, 2006 06:01 PM | Link to this

Troy-Cobbler is certainly acceptable.

By Troy

November 1, 2006 06:07 PM | Link to this

I guess I can do that

By Lew

November 1, 2006 06:09 PM | Link to this

Troy-Yes, most of us are dedicated Braves’ fans, although there are those recalcitrant Mets fans like MetroDude and 2007 Mets, also. We are from all corners of the U.S. and even Viet Nam. Sometimes you will find us discussing BBQ, sweet, tea, banana pudding, Johnny Cash, rock and roll, country music, southern rock or whatever else we feel like talking about. You might even see people discussing musk oxen, yaks, and Cordele, Ga.. Or maybe blue worms and Scarlett Johansen. The only real rules are to NEVER give Carolina Lady or FlBravesGirl grief.

By Troy

November 1, 2006 06:09 PM | Link to this

So…… Mets FA reliever Mota will be suspended 50 games fpr a failed drug test. Thoughts?

By Metropolitan Man

November 1, 2006 06:11 PM | Link to this

Dam, guess you cant beleive anything they print nowadays!

Tom Glavine won 15 games for the Mets and anchored a pitching staff that was decimated by injuries for the postseason stretch. If New York is going to reward the 20-year veteran, it may take some time.

Glavine

Glavine’s agent denied a report in the New York Daily News that the pitcher is closing in on a two-year, $25 million contract with the club.

Clifton said there have been no negotiations since Glavine spoke to chief operating officer Jeff Wilpon about a possible return at the end of the team’s season two weeks ago.

“There has been no dialogue to date,” Clifton told ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick. “No conversations with the Mets have commenced whatsoever in any way, shape or form regarding Tom’s option or the team’s option — or an alternative somewhere between the two.”

Glavine has a $7.5 million option for 2007, while the Mets have an option for $14 million. Since it appears that neither side will exercise its option, Glavine and the team are trying to reach a mutual agreement before the free agency filing period ends on Nov. 11.

The Mets’ ace is 48-48 with a 3.85 ERA in four seasons with the team. He posted a 15-7 record with a 3.82 ERA in 198 innings in 2006 and pitched 13 scoreless innings over his first two postseason starts before allowing three runs in four innings and suffering a defeat in Game 5 of the NL Championship Series.

Glavine is 290-191 for his career with a 3.46 ERA.

By Troy

November 1, 2006 06:13 PM | Link to this

Topic for disscussion:

I think its pretty obvious that Brian McCann is the Best overall Catcher in the NL, Is he the best in the Majors? Joe Mauer, Ivan Rodriguez I think McCann is already!

By Troy

November 1, 2006 06:14 PM | Link to this

Thanks for the insider tips Lew(Pie-Man)

By Carolina Lady

November 1, 2006 06:15 PM | Link to this

Is there a difference between pie and cobbler?
Troy, one is round, the other is square. Pie are NOT square!
:-)))

By TennesseePaul

November 1, 2006 06:17 PM | Link to this

NY Mets Reliever Guillermo Mota was suspended for 50 games Wednesday after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance.

By Metropolitan Man

November 1, 2006 06:22 PM | Link to this

Yeah, Mota was a Willie favorite and a workhorse. Its so funny how us METS fans embrcaced him becasue it was him who beaned Piazza in spring training a couple of years ago that made Piazza go postal. We hated him for that. Then he came here and gave our bullpen a shot in the arm when we needed it. So this METS fans hopes that Mota is sincere in his apololgy but the bottom line is right now, no team wants a player associated with performance enhancement drugs on their team. Second chance, of course. Lack of performance will get you canned, but taking drugs will just get you reevaluated.

By Lew

November 1, 2006 06:24 PM | Link to this

Troy-Actually, the Esteemed Journalist Jimmy Smith is the pie man. According to 2007 Mets, I am the Crabby Old Bi##h.

By Metropolitan Man

November 1, 2006 06:28 PM | Link to this

Troy, you can leave peformance enhancing taking Pudge out of it. As of right now Mcann actually is the man…….at catcher.

By Troy

November 1, 2006 06:37 PM | Link to this

Good to here it from others, I think McCann will be the elite at his postion for the next 7-8 years. Metro Man do the mets dare resign Mota after the suspension or what?

By Tom

November 1, 2006 06:45 PM | Link to this

I have been reading some of what was said about LF and Carl Crawford. He would already be a bigger name if he played for another team. He is only 24…his numbers have imporved every year. April 2005 he signed a 6yr $31+ million with option yrs. Tampa would be crazy to trade him. But Tampa has been crazy before. I also like the idea of Ryan Freel from the Reds. Another way to go maybe talking to the Dodgers about Julio Lugo to play 2nd.

By TennesseePaul

November 1, 2006 06:46 PM | Link to this

Then he came here and gave our bullpen a shot in the arm when we needed it.

Ironically that is what got him suspended for 50 games.

By Stinky

November 1, 2006 06:46 PM | Link to this

Lew, I’ve never been able to buy into banana pudding. Pie good. Banana Pudding… blah. Does that make me a bad person. Is that why I’m - Stinky. I like BBQ. I listen to music. But banana pudding, I just can’t abide something that looks like bile with marangue and nilla wafers (which I don’t care for, either).

What is the meaning of life?

By LeTwan Anthony

November 1, 2006 06:52 PM | Link to this

LeTwan is the pie man, thank you. journalist jimmy smith is merely a handsome and debonair contributor to this blog. Pie is performance enhancing. Let’s hope they are not testing for pie.

By Troy

November 1, 2006 06:54 PM | Link to this

Lugo is a free agent and he is gonna get a fat contract from a team that will regret it down the road

By Bobbymahlon

November 1, 2006 06:54 PM | Link to this

If anybody doesn’t think defense is important they were not watching the World Series. The poor defense of the Tigers greatly contributed to the Cards winning.

By Metropolitan Man

November 1, 2006 06:59 PM | Link to this

Here is Motas apology, would you sign him after hearing or reading this???

Reliever Guillermo Mota was suspended for 50 games Wednesday after testing positive for a performance-enhancing substance, becoming the third player penalized this year for violating Major League Baseball’s toughened drug policy. In announcing the suspension, the commissioner’s office did not say why Mota was suspended. His failed drug test was confirmed by a baseball official who spoke on condition of anonymity because the specifics weren’t included in the release.

The 33-year-old pitcher was 4-3 with a 4.53 ERA this season with Cleveland and the New York Mets, who acquired him from the Indians on Aug. 20.

Mota, who gave up a tying two-run triple to Scott Spiezio in the seventh inning of Game 2 of the NL championship series, filed for free agency Monday. His suspension will start at the beginning of next season.

“I have no one to blame but myself,” Mota said in a statement that did not explain how he ran afoul of baseball’s drug rules. “I take full responsibility for my actions and accept MLB’s suspension. I used extremely poor judgment and deserve to be held accountable.”

“To my teammates and the entire Mets organization, I am sorry. I truly regret what I did and hope that you can forgive me. To baseball fans everywhere, I understand that you are disappointed in me, and I don’t blame you. I feel terrible and I promise this is the first and last time that this will happen. I am determined to prove to you that this was one mistake.”

Mota’s agent, Adam Katz, said the pitcher intends to play next season.

“He is anxious to get back to work,” Katz said. “I believe he’ll be a better person and a better player moving forward.”

Mota has 26-27 record with seven saves in eight major league seasons with the Montreal Expos, the Los Angeles Dodgers, Florida, Cleveland and the Mets.

In 2005, an initial suspension under Major League Baseball’s drug policy was for 10 days but players and owners, under congressional pressure, agreed last November to lengthen the penalties. Pitchers Yusaku Iriki and Jason Grimsley also were suspended for 50 games this year.

Iriki tested positive for a performance-enhancing substance while on the Mets roster during spring training, and pitcher Jason Grimsley was penalized after authorities tracked a package containing human growth hormone to his home.

Iriki pitched one game for Class A St. Lucie of the Florida State League, then went 4-8 with a 4.70 ERA in 16 starts and three relief appearances with Triple-A Norfolk of the International League. He filed conditionally for free agency on Monday.

Grimsley already had been released by Arizona when he was suspended and does not appear to want to pitch in the major leagues again.

Funny stuff Tenn. Paul, that shot in the arm gave up a triple to Speezio at the wrong time.

By Metropolitan Man

November 1, 2006 07:02 PM | Link to this

Banana pudding is for people with false teeth!

By Troy

November 1, 2006 07:06 PM | Link to this

With the Mota thing we’ll see I guess, I can’t see him not landing a job somewhere, The mets would probably be wise to resign him, because it may hurt his negotiating power and he could command less money than before the suspension

By The Grinch

November 1, 2006 07:16 PM | Link to this

This dang thing didn’t post my last post. With apologies to Brother Dave Gardner, Troy, I said “Pie r round, cobbler r square.” Looks like CL beat me to it after all. I also said some rather nasty things about Glavine. Like “It’s entirely up to my family. What? Greg’s retiring next year? Uhh, Christy said to go where the money is. Last time I talked to her in ‘04, she said the kids didn’t have adequate clothing.” I hope he has a couple of “new” kids when he gets back, ones that look like Jim Carrey’s in “Me, Myself and Irene.”

By Braves07

November 1, 2006 07:26 PM | Link to this

By Lew

November 1, 2006 04:35 PM | Link to this

Scoots-You came into the conversation later than some of us. The whole subject started yesterday with Shaun’s assertion that a defensive player was only responsible for three wins per season, based on some obtuse formula.

I agree that this can’t be accurate but it’s not unreasonable. I think this whole argument started because of win share. Assume Braves is up 5-4 and Andruw Jones makes a spectacular diving catch to end the game. Does that mean he just won the game by himself? No. Hitters who contributed for 5 runs and Braves pitchers only gave up 4 runs won the game all together. The catch helped win the game but Andruw gets only a praction of win share.

By The Grinch

November 1, 2006 07:27 PM | Link to this

Man. Allen Iverson said in the off-season that he wanted to come to Atlanta (the ONLY big-time free agent who did) and we said no thanks, despite having more than enough money. In the season opener against Iverson and the Sixers it’s 15-2 (Sixers) so far. Guess we really didn’t need him after all. Good thing the Thrashers are on, though their best defenseman’s off to Sweeden for the next few games.

By The Grinch

November 1, 2006 07:58 PM | Link to this

The Thrashers are getting their butts kicked too. Thank god reruns of Law & Order SVU are on.

By Lew

November 1, 2006 08:34 PM | Link to this

LeTwan-I apologize. It’s been so long since you’ve been here..Stinky, as long as you like pie and BBQ, banana pudding can be optional. MetroDude-And just what’s wrong with false teeth> Take my word, they beat having none at all. Imagine having to give up ribs. Braves07-The win share thingy still doesn’t take intangibles into account. No statistical formula can take all aspects into account. And yes, a single particular play can make the difference in a game. Now this conversation has been going on for more than a day. Let’s call it quits.I don’t want to discuss win share practions (new DOB blog word)anymore. We’ve said all there is to say. Grinch-At 9 o’clock, check out Criminal Minds on CBS-I think you’ll like it.

By journalist jimmy smith

November 1, 2006 09:54 PM | Link to this

A COLD RING FINGER … yes, cold ring finger. this is the first indication of a cold heart. what if a certain left-hander signs for $25 million and has a relapse of cold ring finger? not saying he will, mind you, but what if?

By Troy

November 1, 2006 10:03 PM | Link to this

Any LOST fans? Just got done watching the best show on tv.

By The Grinch

November 1, 2006 10:46 PM | Link to this

Lew, if you cook ribs properly you don’t need teeth. Criminal minds wasn’t bad.

Troy, I normally don’t watch network tv; usually just on request. I’ve heard it was good, though.

Jimmy Smith, I hope that…person gets Reitsma syndrome and also doesn’t report it ‘till it’s too late. I also hope he doesn’t report to his home until it’s too late.

By Troy

November 1, 2006 10:53 PM | Link to this

I am going to bed I might check back tomorrow to see if this chat picks back up goodbye to all

By The Grinch

November 2, 2006 01:13 AM | Link to this

I’ve currently got three superficial relationships going with women who shouldn’t have anything to do with me due to their current situation. Just got done slugging it out with my most recent ex over the phone. Why, why do you y’all have to make everything so complicated when it should be simple, and so simple when it should be complicated? Damn you all.

Now, baseball. Jimmy Smith, saw a deodorant commercial last night where the guy who wasn’t wering any raised his arm to encircle the girl on the couch, and the announcer said “Oh, the humanity!” That doesn’t have anything to do with baseball, but I don’t care. It was humorous.

By Stinky

November 2, 2006 07:54 AM | Link to this

Banana Pudding Optional. WHEW! Now to Glavine.

The evil, turncoat millionaire has made over 113 mill in his life. And, according to Newsday, has a close relationship with the Met-owning Wilpon family. And yet he dallies before signing a contract. Why? because he thinks we still care. The deluded junkballer wants to get our hopes up and stab us in the back once again.

The thing is, Braves fans want him to sign with the Mets. Let him breakdown with him them and get shelled when he serves up that soon to be 79mph fastball in someone’s kitchen. What a bargain at 8 figures.

By Shaun

November 2, 2006 09:02 AM | Link to this

Yes, the Buckner play affected the Red Sox more negatively than the Fisk HR did positively. The Fisk HR did not lead to a win, but the Sox lost the Series because of that one play. I know you will dispute this, but I’m pretty sure you’ll be the only one who does.

The Fisk HR was a “walk-off” homerun. The game was already tied when Buckner made the error. What about Schiraldi’s wild pitch to tie the game?! What about all the hits the Sox’s bullpen gave up with two outs?!

By Troy

November 2, 2006 09:06 AM | Link to this

Does anyone agree that the Braves could really use a 1B/3B/LF Bench/Role type player with some pop to really round out their bench, The guy that comes to mind is a Mike Lamb (HOU) type guy, however I think that ATL would probably a righthander or switch hitter. After all the moves are said and done by Atlanta this offseason I think getting a guy that fits that profile would really be icing on the cake. Any suggetions on who might be aquirred to fit that role?

By Shaun

November 2, 2006 09:07 AM | Link to this

I agree that this can’t be accurate but it’s not unreasonable. I think this whole argument started because of win share. Assume Braves is up 5-4 and Andruw Jones makes a spectacular diving catch to end the game. Does that mean he just won the game by himself? No. Hitters who contributed for 5 runs and Braves pitchers only gave up 4 runs won the game all together. The catch helped win the game but Andruw gets only a praction of win share.

Well, said. Even if win shares are off, my basic argument isn’t flawed. Andruw makes a great play in a close game, he shouldn’t get credit for winning the game, because one play doesn’t win or lose any game. Yes, it helps and maybe he should get more credit for that than just a routine fly ball, but it’s still only one out.

By Shaun

November 2, 2006 09:24 AM | Link to this

I doubt Lew, BBFan, TPaul, Grinch, or anybody else, would put together a team without looking at SOME kind of statistical input, and I doubt Shaun would put together a team with just a calculator :-). Anyway, just found it interesting, especially since the disagreement has been so, well, vehement, at times.

Well, said! You would be an idiot if you ignored either subjective or objective elements of player evaluation.

Dude, you’re totally missing the point. It has nothing whatsoever to do with the validity of statistics as a means of evaluation, but rather has to do with the fact that stats can’t possibly present the whole picture. And I’ve been nice in my responses, too. So there.

I’ve never said that stats can tell the whole story. My main point is that if by using stats and some common sense (some stats are meaningful and some are meaningless) and take into account some extraneous factors (ballpark, etc.), you can evaluate players much better than you could by just relying on what you see or what players say or what announcers say.

Yes, there is a certain subjective element to evaluating players with stats, common sense and taking extraneous factors into account…but it’s more objective than only watching a player and trying to evaluate him that way only or just relying on what other players say or just relying on what announcers say or what managers or coaches say. Not that you should ignore your own eyes or what people say about players, but stats, common sense and taking extraneous factors into account are more reliable. That’s my point and I’m sticking to it!

By Lone Wolf

November 2, 2006 09:32 AM | Link to this

Applying Sabermetrics to baseball is like putting a band aid on a wart. It looks nice but it doesn’t solve anything.

By Shaun

November 2, 2006 09:40 AM | Link to this

For baseball analyst/historian ignoring sabermetrics is like a linguist ignoring latin.

By Shaun

November 2, 2006 10:03 AM | Link to this

I think a big problem is what people perceive as sabermetrics is not what is actual. People perceive sabermetricians as a bunch of computer/numbers geeks who think they know more about the game than anyone who played. In actuality they are people who use stats combined with common sense over just relying on observation or someone else’s observation.

By Tony Clifton

November 2, 2006 10:05 AM | Link to this

Shaun, Lats, bats, cats, rats, fatz. Them’s all words that rhymes with Stats. Look twinky (and I mean that in a good way - I mean I could have said worse), you need to take a long walk off a short pier. After your little swim, dry off and get off the blog for good.

There, I’ve wasted my highly valued time on you. Now, get out of here. I gotta leave a Dob.

By Shaun

November 2, 2006 10:07 AM | Link to this

I think a big problem is what people perceive as sabermetrics is not what is actual. People perceive sabermetricians as a bunch of computer/numbers geeks who think they know more about the game than anyone who played. In actuality they are people who use more objective measures (stats combined with common sense) over just relying on observation or someone else’s observation when evaluating baseball players and teams.

By Lew

November 2, 2006 10:31 AM | Link to this

Shaun-We all do use stats when we evaluate teams and players in baseball. No one has ever said that this was not the case. However, I think where most of us disagree with you is your apparently total reliance on these stats. It seems like you can’t discuss, or seemingly, enjoy baseball without them. I’ve always contended that I can learn all I need to know about a player using the traditional stats for BA, Hits, Runs, RBI, HR, wins, losses, ERA and strikeout to walk ratio. I’ve never seen that Slugging percentage, OBP, or OPS are necessary for enlightenment or evaluation. I’ve also never felt the need to use formulas other than those to figure ERA and BA. Baseball is and always has been a sport where gut feeling or intuition plays a large part. I just don’t feel that your statistical formulas can possibly take theintangibles of the game (what you call objective stats) into consideration. You just can’t have a formula that deals with these aspects mathematically. That is mainly where we differ in philosophy. I think total reliance on statistics and formulas dehumanizes the game considerably. But as Dennis Miller says-I could be wrong.

By Shaun

November 2, 2006 10:55 AM | Link to this

Lew,

Well, I think your perception of me is wrong—I do not rely totally on stats. I do think stats are the best thing we have to evaluate players and you can learn a whole lot about a player by just looking at stats (not absolutely everything, though).

I think our disagreement is which stats to use and how to use stats. You don’t see the need to go beyond “traditional” stats, but I think (and I think history and research backs me up on this) that things like OBP and SLG and DIPS and Range Factor are more reliable (can tell you more about how much a player contributes to run scoring/prevention) than things like AVG, ERA, Runs and RBI. How did I arrive at this? Well, with common sense and reading the work of people a lot smarter than me and my experiences playing the game.

I would love to just look at a player’s stats that are easily accessible and rely on those because it would be much easier. But through my self-education, I’ve learned that those stats don’t necessarily tell us a whole lot.

By Carolina Lady

November 2, 2006 10:59 AM | Link to this

Dear God in Heaven, Shaun!!! Give us a break and leave the statistics alone! You have monopolized this blog for way too long and most of us are sick of it! It’s a rare time that I blow, but when driven far enough it happens and you’ve managed what few can! Go enjoy the world of numbers and leave us in peace. PLEASE!

I apologize to the rest of the world. Boy! I feel so much better! :-)

By Lew

November 2, 2006 11:23 AM | Link to this

Now Ma’am-Shaun’s really a good boy, he’s just a tad compulsive about his statistics. Shaun-I will say this as my last statement (for today, anyway) on the subject. I truly believe that using what I feel to be the important stats (those I previously mentioned), I could put together a team of major league players that would be every bit as good as a team YOU put together using your hieroglyphics and formulas. I have a feeling that our teams would also overlap considerably. I just feel you take it to extremes. Dude, I don’t even have a clue what DIPS or range factor IS and I’ve still managed to learn quite a bit about baseball. On another subject-Did everyone see that a Negro League player died yesterday at 111 years old? Can you imagine the baseball that man saw? I would bet that he managed to see almost everyone, black white and other in the modern era and before.

By rammerjammer

November 2, 2006 11:32 AM | Link to this

Wow, CL blew a gasket. Bold type AND exclamation points. Shaun, you’re on the brink of entering Robert’s World, where only one topic is allowed and it is beaten to death. Please, for yourself, your family, your friends, yes, even for your fellow bloggers…let it go. Let it go.

By TennesseePaul

November 2, 2006 11:32 AM | Link to this

People perceive sabermetricians as a bunch of computer/numbers geeks who think they know more about the game than anyone who played

People perceive sabermetricians to be arrogant insufferable know-it alls. It isn’t a matter of geek or non-geek. This perception is not without merit. Yesterday, for instance, you specifically belittled the coaches in the game. Your total reliance on stats is so bad, that you had to quantify the amount of praise bestowed on former players by the fans (Babe Ruth deserves more praise than anyother yadda yadda yadda).

Win shares are bunk, by the way. They’re meaningless. A fad stat which will be replaced when the next book comes out. I still can’t believe you present them as a sound means to evaluate a player.

By TennesseePaul

November 2, 2006 11:38 AM | Link to this

Lew: DIPS you actually use in your basic stats. They are defensive independent pitching stats. It’s a way of referring to HR allowed, K, BB, HBP and so forth. It’s just a name for a subset of pitching statistics.

By Lew

November 2, 2006 11:49 AM | Link to this

TenPaul-Thanks for the info. I guess I’ve just never WHIPed my DIPS. Or something along these lines.

By Carolina Lady

November 2, 2006 11:54 AM | Link to this

Y’all, I do apologize! How on earth can one, and only one, subject totally occupy a person’s mind??! Endless posts for hours on end on one narrow subject finally did it! Actually, I’m embarrassed - but I have to admit, I sure do feel better! :-)))

Shaun has always been polite and has never attacked anyone, but his capacity for posting one of the world’s most boring subjects is astonishing. There are blogs for everything; surely there are sabermetrics blogs where kindred spirits could happily indulge themselves endlessly - instead of here. You think??

(I am thoroughly abashed and I really do apologize!)

By TennesseePaul

November 2, 2006 12:02 PM | Link to this

WHIP. It’s the first stat that actually used a W walk, instead of BB for base on balls. I guess BBHIP isn’t as popular to say at parties. Produces too much spray.

By Lew

November 2, 2006 12:04 PM | Link to this

Ma’am-That’s ok. You never need to apologize. It’ll be fine. Just eat some blackberry cobbler and call the blog in the morning.

By LISTENING

November 2, 2006 12:04 PM | Link to this

I couldn’t have said it better Carolina Lady. Shaun, go awayyyyyyyyyyy !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

By Troy

November 2, 2006 12:11 PM | Link to this

Wow sounds like lots of good old fun has been going on here.

By 2007 Mets

November 2, 2006 12:14 PM | Link to this

It looks as if Jeff Bagwell days as an Astro are over. Todays question is: * Is Jeff Bagwell going to the HOF?* .297 lifetime batting avg— 449 career homeruns— Rookie of the Year— 1994 MVP— 4 time Allstar

By Troy

November 2, 2006 12:21 PM | Link to this

without a doubt Jeff Bagwell is a HOF

By Robert

November 2, 2006 12:26 PM | Link to this

“So you’re telling me that the Buckner play affected the Red Sox in a negative way more than the Fisk homer affected the Red Sox in a positive way? “

Mookie Wilson never shouldve gotten to the on deck circle, much less the plate. If the Red Sox execute, then the “one misplayed roller” (to paraphrase a manager of the year’s favorite nonsensical comment) never happens

By Robert

November 2, 2006 12:32 PM | Link to this

“Dear God in Heaven, Shaun!!! Give us a break and leave the statistics alone! You have monopolized this blog for way too long and most of us are sick of it!

Posts to this blog do not have to have your approval. Ignore those you dont like and move on

“It’s a rare time that I blow”

That’s entirely between you and your husband. We had no need to know

By Shaun

November 2, 2006 12:37 PM | Link to this

I will say this as my last statement (for today, anyway) on the subject. I truly believe that using what I feel to be the important stats (those I previously mentioned), I could put together a team of major league players that would be every bit as good as a team YOU put together using your hieroglyphics and formulas. I have a feeling that our teams would also overlap considerably. I just feel you take it to extremes. Dude, I don’t even have a clue what DIPS or range factor IS and I’ve still managed to learn quite a bit about baseball.

People perceive sabermetricians to be arrogant insufferable know-it alls. It isn’t a matter of geek or non-geek. This perception is not without merit. Yesterday, for instance, you specifically belittled the coaches in the game.

My intention was certainly not to belittle coaches. What I said was I learned a lot from the coaches I played under and I joked and said some of them probably never read a book without pictures. Translation: I learned a lot from all my coaches, even though many of them probably never read a book on sabermetrics or statistics.

I think the major argument is whether more advanced statistics/”non-traditional” statistics have enhanced knowledge of player or team performance. I would argue that it has. But some would argue that it hasn’t; that people dive deep into statistical analysis to be “arrogant insufferable know-it alls.” Well, I can’t speak for all sabermetricians everywhere, but I can tell you my goal is not to be an arrogant know-it-all. My goal is to gain as much knowledge as I possibly can about player and team performance. I admit I am far from a know-it-all, which is why I rely on people smarter than I to add to the knowledge I already have about player and team performance.

And, yes, I too think I could have fielded a pretty good team before I started reading sabermetric works, but I feel I have a better understanding of the game now that I’ve read some sabermetric works.

By Carolina Lady

November 2, 2006 12:39 PM | Link to this

Hey, Lew! Don’t have any cobbler but would pancakes with REAL Vermont Maple Syrup work, you think? :-)) Can’t tell you how much we have enjoyed that syrup!!!

By 2007 Mets

November 2, 2006 12:41 PM | Link to this

I think Bagwell just misses getting to the HOF. He did not acheive the 500 homers or 3000 hits needed for automatic induction. Jose Canseco isn’t getting in. He has about equal stats and is a six time allstar. He also has a WS ring. I know you’re gonna bring up steroid but hey, Bagwell is from that era too so you never know.

By Shaun

November 2, 2006 12:41 PM | Link to this

Mookie Wilson never shouldve gotten to the on deck circle, much less the plate. If the Red Sox execute, then the “one misplayed roller” (to paraphrase a manager of the year’s favorite nonsensical comment) never happens

My point exactly. One play does not a series or even game make.

By Carolina Lady

November 2, 2006 12:43 PM | Link to this

The cancer has returned.

By Carolina Lady

November 2, 2006 12:45 PM | Link to this

Robert, I’m a widow. Take your nastiness elsewhere.

By geauxbraves2000

November 2, 2006 12:53 PM | Link to this

Stats are in the past. Stats are what happened. You cannot predict the future. No one can, no stat, no computer, no one. I wonder how many potential superstars are stuck in the minors because of “computer projections.”

Baseball is a simple game that has been made way too complex. See the ball, hit the ball, run to 1st base, score more runs than you give up and you win, if you don’t, you don’t win. That’s it.

Geaux Braves!!

By Shaun

November 2, 2006 12:58 PM | Link to this

TennPaul,

Tell me what someone would have to gain by becoming a “sabermetrician” besides trying to gain more knowledge about baseball? What did Bill James have to gain by diving as deeply as he did into baseball stats?

I guess maybe fame. But would Bill James or any sabermetricians become famous if their stuff didn’t make sense or didn’t stand up to scrutiny? Maybe sabermetricians want people to think they know more about the game than everybody else, huh? Well, why would anyone listen to someone like Bill James, someone with no credibility in the baseball world (or probably any other world for that matter), if what they say doesn’t actually make sense?

I don’t think sabermetricians try to be arrogant or know-it-all’s. I think they are just trying to gain as much knowledge as possible. They sometimes come across that way because some baseball insiders have felt threatened by them and discredit what they have to say without actually investigating. One of the most famous examples is Joe Morgan (who sabermetricians respect as much as anyone as a player). Morgan didn’t even know that Billy Beane did not write Moneyball and criticized the whole sabermetric philosophy on the basis of what he thinks it is without even trying to understand it.

By Beachcomber

November 2, 2006 01:13 PM | Link to this

In the immortal words of the early Kenny Rogers - “just dropped in…..” Not to change the subject but yes to change the subject. I was puzzled by the article elsewhere stating that Glavine might pitch two years so he would not enter the HOF in the same class as Maddux. Why? I would think they would be honored to enter together since they (along with Smoltz) were the heart and soul of our staff for a decade.

By Shaun

November 2, 2006 01:16 PM | Link to this

geauxbraves2000,

I would venture to say no players are stuck in the minors because of “computer projections.” I would say more are stuck in the minors because they don’t have the right “tools” or because some of their “sexy” stats are impressive (Whoa! I actually said it’s bad to rely on some stats!).

Baseball is a simple game that has been made way too complex. See the ball, hit the ball, run to 1st base, score more runs than you give up and you win, if you don’t, you don’t win. That’s it.

I agree! People want to complicate baseball by looking at how many runs scored as a result of players getting on in front of a particular player (RBI) or looking at how many hits a player gets in plate appearances where he did not walk or get hit by a pitch or didn’t advance a runner with a bunt or a fly ball (AVG) or looking at how many runs a pitcher gave up when the ball did not bounce off a fielder’s glove (Earned Runs). The game could be so much simpler than Batting Average, RBI, and ERA…oh, yeah, many sabermetricians understand this, which is why they say a lot of people rely too much on AVG, RBI and ERA!

By TennesseePaul

November 2, 2006 01:31 PM | Link to this

they say a lot of people rely too much on AVG, RBI and ERA!

How exactly can one rely to much on AVG, RBI and ERA? What makes it “to much”? How is it complicated to view the level of production when the hitter puts the ball in play? How can it be complicated to evaluate a pitcher based on what happens when all goes “as expected,” for all intents and purposes?

By The Grinch

November 2, 2006 01:39 PM | Link to this

CL, I think of one thing and one thing only, just like Shaun. It’s not that uncommon. :-)

By Shaun

November 2, 2006 01:47 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

Why don’t we judge a hitter by how good he is at avoiding outs first a foremost (OBP), then how good he is at advancing around the bases (SLG), then other things?

Why don’t we judge a pitcher by how good he is at the things he can control: giving up homeruns, strikeouts, walks?

Why don’t we judge fielders by how many balls they get to?

This seems to be making things more simple instead of more complicated.

No instead many judge players by looking at how many runs scored as a result of players getting on in front of a particular player (RBI) or looking at how many hits a player gets in plate appearances where he did not walk or get hit by a pitch or didn’t advance a runner with a bunt or a fly ball (AVG) or looking at how many runs a pitcher gave up when the ball did not bounce off a fielder’s glove (Earned Runs).

By TennesseePaul

November 2, 2006 01:57 PM | Link to this

Payne: Again I ask, How exactly can one rely too much on AVG, RBI and ERA? What makes it “too much”? How is it complicated to view the level of production when the hitter puts the ball in play? How can it be complicated to evaluate a pitcher based on what happens when all goes “as expected,” for all intents and purposes?

By Shaun

November 2, 2006 02:15 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

Well, a hitter helps out his team when he walks or gets hit by a pitch—batting average doesn’t take that into account.

RBI are largely dependent on how often the hitters in front of a particular hitter are on base. An inferior hitter could have more RBI because he hits behind guys that are always on base.

ERA is dependent on fielders. If Andruw Jones is playing CF as opposed to Bernie Williams, the same pitcher will probably have a lower ERA everything else being equal. That double that Bernie lets fall in the gap is going to count against his ERA, while that double may be an out into Andruw Jones’s glove. Better to evaluate a pitcher based on what he can control—K, BB, HR—not perfect, but better.

By Scalp 'Em Braves

November 2, 2006 02:22 PM | Link to this

Sabremetric is my favorite mutant villian from “X-Men”.

By GOP

November 2, 2006 02:27 PM | Link to this

My opponent, “jimmy smith” claims that if you don’t get a good education, you get stuck supporting the Braves.

Well, he may want to cut and run, but we true Braves fans support our leader (Mr. Cox) and will stay the course.

Can we trust Mr. Smith who spends his time partying with playboy bunnies? I think not.

A vote for Jimmy Smith is a vote for Met fans. We MUST play the Mets there so they don’t follow us here.

By ernesto

November 2, 2006 02:29 PM | Link to this

Sorry ‘Stros fans, but if Murph doesn’t make it to the HOF, then there’s noooooo way Bags makes it.

A nice guy, great teammate, clutch hitter, but HOFer, c’mon.

By TennesseePaul

November 2, 2006 02:31 PM | Link to this

Payne: Interesting. So, how can one rely “Too Much” on AVG, RBI and ERA?

Maybe it’s your fundamental misunderstanding of what a batting average is. batting average doesn’t take that into account. It isn’t supposed to take that into account. That’s why it doesn’t.
Fundamental misuderstanding. double that Bernie lets fall in the gap is going to count against his ERA
A double doesn’t count as a run and therefore would not count against a pitchers ERA

By Shaun

November 2, 2006 02:48 PM | Link to this

Fundamental misuderstanding. double that Bernie lets fall in the gap is going to count against his ERA A double doesn’t count as a run and therefore would not count against a pitchers ERA

But if that runner scores, it would count against his ERA. The same type of batted ball wouldn’t count against an ERA if AJ was in center.

Another example: a runner reaches first on an error. The pitcher then walks three hitters. That run is not charged to the pitcher as an earned run. Does that seem right to you?

Maybe it’s your fundamental misunderstanding of what a batting average is. batting average doesn’t take that into account. It isn’t supposed to take that into account. That’s why it doesn’t.

Why do some rely so heavily on batting average as a judge of performance when batting average doesn’t take into account some things that help his team win? That’s my point. Batting average is what it is, but people that use it as a great judge of offensive performance aren’t seeing the whole picture.

By Lew

November 2, 2006 02:54 PM | Link to this

Journalist Jimmy-Playboy Bunnies? Does this mean you’ve gotten beyond Diane Lane and her bad banana pudding? 2007 Mets-Crashing thunder and drum rolls please. I agree with you about something. Bagwell does NOT go to the HOF. He put up good numbers in an era when really good numbers were the norm. He did not have a superlative career. Four All Star appearances is not out of the ordinary for a star (not superstar) of his era. In the scheme of things, he was a good, not a great player.

By TennesseePaul

November 2, 2006 03:09 PM | Link to this

Another example: a runner reaches first on an error. The pitcher then walks three hitters. That run is not charged to the pitcher as an earned run. Does that seem right to you?
Yes. It does. That runner shouldn’t have been there. But I’m glad you mentioned the reach on Error. OBP doesn’t include this situation, even though the runner reached base.

But if that runner scores, it would count against his ERA
Ahhh, now you are getting there. Yes, if a runner scores, it counts against the pitchers Earned run average, assuming the run is earned.

*Why do some rely so heavily on batting average *
Again I ask, how does one rely “so heavily” on a stat? What constitutes “so heavily”?

By Scalp 'Em Braves

November 2, 2006 03:12 PM | Link to this

I want to start a write in campaign for HOF consideration of Ralph Garr. Not based upon his stats, career, etc. He was good in his day, but not HOF worthy. It’s based on his having one of the greatest nicknames in all of baseball - “Road Runner” - short, descriptive and imaginative. Now, nicknames are lame and blase’. Raphael becomes “Raffie”. Murphy is “Murph”. Sheffield is “Sheff”. blah blah blah.

Since I’m sick of reading the never ending debate over stats, I have one of two choices - I can quit reading until another topic is posted by Dave or Guy, which I’m going to do (or else will just puke if I see “sabremetrics mentioned one more time) or how about this. Let’s try to come up with some decent nicknames for any player in the league. I’ll start by saying the Brian McCann’s nickname should be “Baby Huey”. Don’t mean this in a derogatory sense - hell, the guy looks like a man child, a 6’2” 225 lb 12 year old, etc.

By TennesseePaul

November 2, 2006 03:14 PM | Link to this

Lew: Good assesment of Bags. I liked him. But he wasn’t even at the top in his day, where the Murph arguably was. Bagwell should be well honored in Houston though. I don’t think it would be inappropriate for Houston to retire his number and enshrine him into their own hall of fame, if they have one.

By Shaun

November 2, 2006 03:26 PM | Link to this

That runner shouldn’t have been there. But I’m glad you mentioned the reach on Error. OBP doesn’t include this situation, even though the runner reached base.

The runner wasn’t responsible for getting on-base, the fielder was. But the pitcher was largely responsible for him scoring, because if he hadn’t walked he wouldn’t have scored.

Why do some rely so heavily on batting average * Again I ask, how does one rely “so heavily” on a stat? What constitutes “so heavily”?

Some people view AVG as more reliable than OBP. Those people are relying on it too heavily.

By Tonight on TBS

November 2, 2006 03:37 PM | Link to this

Boras: Financial Undertakings of Atlanta for Make Benefit Glorious Centerfielder (2006)

Kazakhstani super agent Boras is dispatched to Atlanta to report on the “greatest contract in American baseball” that he plans to negotiate for centerfielder Andruw Jones. With a documentary crew in tow, Boras becomes more interested in locating and marrying Pamela Anderson than on his assignment. Comedy.

By TennesseePaul

November 2, 2006 03:56 PM | Link to this

The runner wasn’t responsible for getting on-base, the fielder was. But the pitcher was largely responsible for him scoring, because if he hadn’t walked he wouldn’t have scored.

The pitcher wasn’t responsible for that runner getting on base either, so why should he be charged with that runner? Had that error not occured, he could have walked 3 guys and no run would have scored. Hence the un-earned run.

By Stinky

November 2, 2006 04:00 PM | Link to this

Shaun, is there a statistic for being too selective. Like when a highly compensated slugger comes to bat and he takes the walk because the guy behind him is the second coming of Craig Robinson. Does that skew OBP at all.

By journalist jimmy smith

November 2, 2006 04:05 PM | Link to this

this journalist is no politician. journalist jimmy smith does not understand the post made by someone else suggesting a political future for jimmy smith. one thing, you won’t have this journalist to kick around anymore - that’s because this journalist is not running for office. now, shaun and robert … the rules are clear - no being ugly to carolina lady. all can abide by such simple rules. blog away and enjoy your day but don’t mess with cl. now, grinch - one thing on your mind … baseball, right?

By Stinky

November 2, 2006 04:08 PM | Link to this

Jeff Bagwell has 1529 RBI. That should be enough.

By ernesto

November 2, 2006 04:23 PM | Link to this

Was that really C.L. yelling at Shaun…no way. Too out of character. I think someone’s “borrowed” her name once again.

I don’t know if RBI’s are enough to make up for some otherwise good but not “Historic” numbers for Bags.

By ncscoots

November 2, 2006 04:25 PM | Link to this

Troy, someone a while back (and forgive me, I don’t remember the name) touted Wes Helms as the type of role player you mentioned. And frankly, the idea has grown on me. A righthanded bat with some pop who could play some 1B and 3B (Helms or a like player) would allow Adam to sit against the REALLY tough lefties, and provide some insurance for Chipper to boot. That assumes the Braves intend to give Aybar a shot at the everyday 2B job, assuming Giles actually is traded (is that enough ifs to make your head spin, or what?). If Aybar is slated going in as a utility player only, then some righthanded pop in the outfield is probably the bench role to fill. Especially if Ward can be re-signed as the primary lefthanded pinch hitter.

Would be nice to see the small tasks taken care of early in the offseason, so that the concentration can be full on towards the bigger needs.

By The Grinch

November 2, 2006 04:33 PM | Link to this

Now that’s humor.

By ncscoots

November 2, 2006 04:59 PM | Link to this

Troy, someone recently touted Wes Helms as the type of role player you mentioned (forgive me, but I don’t remember the poster’s name). Frankly, that idea has grown on me. A righthanded bat with some pop who could play 1B and 3B (Helms or a like player) could give Adam a day off against the REALLY tough lefties, and provide some some insurance for Chipper to boot. Course, that assumes that the Braves plan to give Aybar a shot at the everyday 2B job, also assuming that Giles actually is traded (is that enough ifs, you think???). Otherwise, a righthanded bat with pop for the outfield would be the need to fill, IMO. Add Ward or a like player as a primary lefthanded bat, and the bench begins to shape up pretty well offensively. I’d really like to see the small needs taken care of early in the offseason in order for concentration to be full on towards the larger needs.

By The Grinch

November 2, 2006 05:19 PM | Link to this

What’s wrong with the blog? Everything after 3:26 has been erased.

By Lew

November 2, 2006 05:19 PM | Link to this

Scalp ‘Em-Road Runner was a great nickname. I don’t know about the Baby Huey thing, though. He DOES kind of look like the cartoon character, but it’s kind of a weinie name for a guy that good. Doesn’t McBride look like a teenager, too, with those rosy cheeks? Now baseball-Ten Paul-that scenario of the error followed by three walks. It doesn’t necessarily result in an unearned run. For example-if the leadoff hitter reaches on an error and then the pitcher walks three, forcing him in, I think the run would be aerned. Only if the error had would have lead to a third out (if there were two out, bases loaded and the run scores on an error), would it be earned. Now I think I’m right here, but not positive. Not a stat question, but an official scorer situation.

By The Grinch

November 2, 2006 05:27 PM | Link to this

Never mind; now everything pops back up (pardon the pun). Of course I meant baseball, Jimmy; what else is there?

Time for a pole: How many bloggers are so sick of statistical discussions that they absolutely physically want to vomit? The Grinch raises the first hand.

By Lew

November 2, 2006 05:45 PM | Link to this

Stinky-I think it’s getting to be time with the current crop of HOF possibilities, to take into account that they played in an era of humongous offense. I no longer think that the old criteria of 500 HR or whatever RBI should be so scrupulously adhered to. Under the old guidelines, Jose Canseco would probably get in, but do you think he was really a HOF player? I think even Palmiero and McGwire are borderline, for obvious reasons-Sosa too, despite the 500 plus HR. I know Bagwell was a good guy and a solid player, but not HOF. The only reason I would even consider Palmiero is because of the 3,000 hits.

By Carolina Lady

November 2, 2006 05:48 PM | Link to this

Ernesto, unfortunately, I am guilty as charged. Just had ONE boring statistic too many. No excuse - I’m guilty.

Not only that but I’m not a widow. Just wondered if there was possibly some small scrap of decency in the posting adversary - which, guessing by his lack of response, there is not. That is one who doesn’t care what he says to whom - no matter how many others agree with what I said. I’m just his target again.

I PROMISE I’ll be good now and having profusely apologized previously I just ask forgiveness for my outburst. Simply couldn’t read one. more. long. post. on. mind-blowingly. boring. statistics. I really AM sorry. Let me know when I can get out of the corner.

:-)

By MEB

November 2, 2006 05:51 PM | Link to this

gag… cough… sputter… hands are both up!

By The Grinch

November 2, 2006 05:55 PM | Link to this

Scalp ‘em, I think that name is perfect. He really does look like Baby Huey. Not all nicknames are masculine.

I agree about Helms; he’d be a good addition. Plus, he gives us yet another player in the 235-40 pd plus range. I think our main off-season goal should be to transform the team into the most feared buffet-relay team in the NL.

By The Grinch

November 2, 2006 06:00 PM | Link to this

Heavy lies the dunce-cap…just kidding, CL. Several times recently I’ve caught myself tying little nooses on the end of my blinds after reading some of these posts. There’s no shame in your outburst. Now, if only it had produced the desired effect…

By MEB

November 2, 2006 06:11 PM | Link to this

Grinch… Buffet relay races, now that sounds like a great off season competition. Maybe TBS could squeeze it in between Friends and Seinfeld episodes.

By The Grinch

November 2, 2006 06:36 PM | Link to this

Good call, MEB; we might as well be the best in something and that show would definitely be more entertaining than most of the crap they air these days. I wanna see Wicky jam a Turkey leg in his mouth and pull out a bone without ever removing his chaw. Now that’s entertainment.

Ernesto, have pity on Carolina Lady and let her out of the corner. I can see smoke coming from here ears all the way down here. Y’all ever do that? Forget you left a kid in the corner and notice all the sudden that he/she’s been standing there quietly the whole time steadily plotting all the many ways to kill you when they grow up? Great stuff.

By ernesto

November 2, 2006 06:44 PM | Link to this

I didn’t know I had that kind of power, by all means, CL rejoin the fray.

By Carolina Lady

November 2, 2006 06:55 PM | Link to this

Grinch, I’m properly contrite and will patiently stand here until I am given permission to rejoin polite society. :-)

By Carolina Lady

November 2, 2006 07:12 PM | Link to this

The blog is not displaying properly for me - everything after about 2:00 this afternoon is missing - so I’ll catch up whenever it straightens itself out. :-))

By journalist jimmy smith

November 2, 2006 08:27 PM | Link to this

oh, the humanity! carolina lady has broken the blog!

By The Grinch

November 2, 2006 08:56 PM | Link to this

Yeah, it’s been acting funny with me all afternoon. Got a good game going on ESPN: West Virginia vs. Louisville. Don’t much care for the Big East, but they’re both top 5 teams (in theory) and football is, after all, football.

By Carolina Lady

November 2, 2006 09:02 PM | Link to this

jjs - wow. I did, didn’t I?? Do you think AJC will bill me for it?? Ooooooh, nooooo.

Ernesto, thank you for letting me out! :-))

By Troy

November 2, 2006 09:03 PM | Link to this

Hey guys, That is a good choice Ncscoots I like Wes Helms, he had a good year with FLA, and Grinch you are right we like em round and plump in the dirty south, Where’s Ray King when you need him?

By Troy

November 2, 2006 09:16 PM | Link to this

Honestly, Does anyone have any confidence in Prado or Aybar as the starting 2Bmen next year? Because I certainly Don’t

By Carolina Lady

November 2, 2006 09:31 PM | Link to this

Troy, I really keep hoping that Giles will still be there. I like the way he plays.

By Troy

November 2, 2006 09:35 PM | Link to this

I Think Diaz should buy a first base glove and learn to play first in spring training.

By Troy

November 2, 2006 09:39 PM | Link to this

I do too, I wrote some of my ideas in this blog like two days ago:

*Here are some of my ideas for the 07’ team:

1) SIGN (yes I said sign) Giles to contract maybe 3 yrs. $18MM. Giles is still on the better side of 30 and I think that reason he struggled in 06’ was because he was trying to do to much, he altered his approach at the plate trying to adjust to hitting leadoff, if he can just relax and slide back down to the 2 hole (which I’ll address in a minute) he’ll be just fine. Two other points about Giles, I don’t see anyone in the organization who is ready to be a starter at second anytime soon, I mean Prado is definitely not the answer and I see Aybar as a good Utility guy. Also I think Giles has quietly become one of the better defensive 2B in the league.

2)TRADE Renteria to the Astros, you should be able to get Everett and Qualls (or maybe Lidge). First this does three great things for the Braves #1 it allows Giles who in my opinion is a better hitter than Renteria to go back to the 2 slot where he is much more comfortable, #2 Everett immediately improves the defense, while its true he can’t hit, he is highly regarded as the best defensive SS out there which will definitely help sinkerballers Hampton & Hudson, while Renteria wasn’t horrible Everett is a big upgrade and Houston fans would practically give him away and the Braves have a great offense so they can afford the drop off at SS # 3 Chad Qualls or Brad Lidge helps the bullpen enough said! On the Houston side I think they would love to have Edgar Renteria, he’s good for a .290/.360/.425 with 100 runs scored his power may even increase in that ballpark, and he is very familiar with those NL central opponents.

3) Get a LF who can hit leadoff, I am pretty flexible here I like the Ryan Freel for Horacio Ramirez idea, or even signing Dave Roberts, heck if we could get Carl Crawford that’d be great but I don’t see that happening. Freel probably makes the most sense if Cinncy gives him up

4) Another point that I wanted to make is that currently the Braves are committed to Renteria for 3 more years, I would rather see that commitment go to Giles who is a little younger and it doesn’t appear that anyone will be on his heels for his job like Elvis Andrus is at SS who I have heard nothing but great things about.

Lineup: 1) Ryan Freel LF 2) Marcus Giles 2B 3) Chipper Jones 3B 4) Andruw Jones CF 5) Brian McCann C 6) Jeff Francouer Rf 7) Adam LaRoche 1B 8) Adam Everett SS*

Do you like any of those ideas CL?

By Carolina Lady

November 2, 2006 09:57 PM | Link to this

Troy, I agree with #1

I have doubts that the “leadoff” spot will really be addressed because Cox made a statement indicating that that position wasn’t a priority and Giles was performing much better in that spot in the latter part of the season. I’ll be watching closely to see what JS will do. Much will determined by what he has to give up in order to get what he wants - pitching.

By The Grinch

November 2, 2006 09:58 PM | Link to this

I agree about Giles, Troy, but I don’t see it happening. I think as long as he’s in the #2 spot he’s a better overall player than renteria and more consistant. I honestly think had he been in that spot all year he would’ve hit .285-.300 to go with his stellar defense. Injuries are a problem, though.

After watching #3 West virginia vs. #5 Louisville, I can see why they don’t get any respect besides/despite their ranking. Fundamentals on both teams are practically nonexistant; they’re fumbling about every five plays consistantly despite ideal conditions. Either one would get absolutely steamrolled by any 1 or 2 loss SEC team.

By hk

November 2, 2006 10:03 PM | Link to this

Carolina Lady,

… was most appreciative of your vent earlier in the day, made me smile for quite a while, a vicarious experience to say the least … after all, blogs are indeed for venting once in a while :))

… here’s a chart that ranks the top 50 NL batters left to right, shows MVP (my pet R+HR+RBI thing) has the highest correlation, Slugging avg a distant 2nd, followed by OBP and Batting Average … bears out what TennesseePaul and others have held for quite some time, OBP not much of a measure ..

http://www.mindspring.com/~hk3/obp.htm

By Troy

November 2, 2006 10:05 PM | Link to this

If us fans fight hard enough we’ll be able to convince Johnny to hang onto Giles!

By Carolina Lady

November 2, 2006 10:11 PM | Link to this

HK, it is so good to see you on again!! And you are so kind, sir! I’m glad it gave you good moments! :-)) I think everybody knows that I’m about the last person to ever blow up; ever wish that the 5-minute delay was on the keyboard instead of on the blog?? :-))

OK, I’m off to your new chart! You know I love them!

By Troy

November 2, 2006 10:18 PM | Link to this

In my humble opinion, the trade for Edgar Renteria last year was somewhat of a puzzling move. Here are my reasons:

1)At first it seemed like a deal that was made in panic to lessen the blow of losing Furcal

2)We very quickly and easily tossed away Andy Marte who was supposed to be the 3rd basemen of the future

Looking back in hindsight I don’t think that we needed to make that deal, True Marte was traded again right after that and still hasn’t quite panned out yet but he is still very highly touted as one of the best 3B prospects out there. Originally I thought we should have pushed harder for a LF last year and let Betemit take a shot a SS, I can’t say that Renteria was a dissapointment in anyway, he was great for the Braves and he is an asset to any team he is on.

However a team like Atlanta who has some budget issues with a lot of their money tied up into about 5-6 players you have got to be creative.

So why not give a long term committment to a good younger player who came up through our organization (Giles) and try to get something good in return for a solid veteran player (Renteria)

By Scalp 'em Braves

November 2, 2006 10:29 PM | Link to this

Weighing in on posts since I left work, stopped by the bar, and now sit here watching the WV-Louisville game.

Carolina Lady - DO NOT apologize for your earlier remarks regarding Shaun’s incessant chatter about stats. I share your frustration with his posts. You very articulately expressed the sentiments of several of us. As for your rebuke of the jerk who made the inappropriate comment, props to you for saying what you did, and being blunt, and to the point. You are quite the lady. By the way. Have you tried the Charlie’s Cornbread recipe yet? I am interested to know what you think about it.

Grinch - check my earlier post on the barf/puke/throw up thing as far as stat talk is concerned. I’m right there with you, Bro. I know you are a Dawg. When you guys come to “The Jungle” next week, please lay down and let us beat the crap out of you. We need the style points, especially since the Ugly Lizards have jumped us in the BCS.

Lew - I understand your reservations about calling McCann “Baby Huey”. If you have a better suggestion, I’m opem to it. But, he is what is he is - a damned good player, and a key part of our future, both offensively and defensively. The nickname thing is all in fun, anyway.

Nicknames - remember when they called Lonnie Smith “Skates”? That was great. Mark Lemke’s nickname was “Dirt”, which was appropop. Franouer being called “Frenchy” is ok.

For Jose Reyes, I think they ought to call him “The Streak”. The guy is unbelievable once he gets on base.

As far as this football game is concerned, is it just me (being a former SEC player) or can these guys just not play defense and tackle? And, WV fumbles the ball 6 times and loses it 3 times? Louisville scores two cheap touchdowns on a fumble and blown punt coverage. Sorry, but while this is a competitive football game, if these guys play the big boys, they’re toast (apologies to Grinch, since the Leg Humpers lost to WV in the bowl last year).

By Carolina Lady

November 2, 2006 10:45 PM | Link to this

Hey, Scalp! Many thanks, sir! Your comments are appreciated very much!

No, I haven’t had the opportunity to make the recipe yet. Mother has been ‘more worser’ for the last week or so and most of my cooking has been geared towards what she might be able to eat. Beloved Daughter and I have filled in with whatever was in the ‘fridge. Mother’s situation is rather tedious and there’s not much that can really be done other than what we’re doing. It’s tough sometimes.

But I can’t wait to try Charlie’s recipe! I sure enjoy cooking great food! I told Lew that if I eat much more of those pancakes, these size 8 jeans are going to need some of that sabermetrics stuff where the numbers can be ‘adjusted’ and ‘normalized’ to make them do what you want - like fit a little less snugly so I can breath again!
:-)))))

By Scalp 'em Braves

November 2, 2006 11:12 PM | Link to this

Carolina Lady - I am very sorry, but I said earlier today that the next time I saw the “S” word, I was going to barf. Please excuse my while I run to hug to toidy for a moment.

On your Mom, I sympathize. Lost my Mom -in -Law to cancer earlier this year. A drain on my wife and I trying to take care of her, emotionally, finding SOMETHING she would eat, could keep down, and handling her finances. You are a good daughter looking after her. Will say that one of the few things she would eat was Charlie’s Cornbread, along with buttermilk. Go figure.

You like pancakes and waffles?? I am the pancake/waffle master. Though it would not be financially rewarding for me, I want to be a short order cook for breakfast. I got more recipes for breakfast than Carter’s got little liver pills!!

I wonder if JJS has tried my biscuit recipe. After I posted it, then he begged for a gravy recipe. I’m not gonna go there, though. My sausage gravy recipe is a closely held family secret (haha).

Still think the “Big Least” don’t know nothing about playing defense. 78 points scored in a game? What ever happened to “4 yards and a cloud of dust”? It still exists in the SEC.

By Scalp 'em Braves

November 2, 2006 11:13 PM | Link to this

Carolina Lady - I am very sorry, but I said earlier today that the next time I saw the “S” word, I was going to barf. Please excuse my while I run to hug to toidy for a moment.

On your Mom, I sympathize. Lost my Mom -in -Law to cancer earlier this year. A drain on my wife and I trying to take care of her, emotionally, finding SOMETHING she would eat, could keep down, and handling her finances. You are a good daughter looking after her. Will say that one of the few things she would eat was Charlie’s Cornbread, along with buttermilk. Go figure.

You like pancakes and waffles?? I am the pancake/waffle master. Though it would not be financially rewarding for me, I want to be a short order cook for breakfast. I got more recipes for breakfast than Carter’s got little liver pills!!

I wonder if JJS has tried my biscuit recipe. After I posted it, then he begged for a gravy recipe. I’m not gonna go there, though. My sausage gravy recipe is a closely held family secret (haha).

Still think the “Big Least” don’t know nothing about playing defense. 78 points scored in a game? What ever happened to “4 yards and a cloud of dust”? It still exists in the SEC.

By Scalp 'em Braves

November 2, 2006 11:21 PM | Link to this

Carolina Lady - I am very sorry, but I said earlier today that the next time I saw the “S” word, I was going to barf. Please excuse my while I run to hug to toidy for a moment.

On your Mom, I sympathize. Lost my Mom -in -Law to cancer earlier this year. A drain on my wife and I trying to take care of her, emotionally, finding SOMETHING she would eat, could keep down, and handling her finances. You are a good daughter looking after her. Will say that one of the few things she would eat was Charlie’s Cornbread, along with buttermilk. Go figure.

You like pancakes and waffles?? I am the pancake/waffle master. Though it would not be financially rewarding for me, I want to be a short order cook for breakfast. I got more recipes for breakfast than Carter’s got little liver pills!!

I wonder if JJS has tried my biscuit recipe. After I posted it, then he begged for a gravy recipe. I’m not gonna go there, though. My sausage gravy recipe is a closely held family secret (haha).

Still think the “Big Least” don’t know nothing about playing defense. 78 points scored in a game? What ever happened to “4 yards and a cloud of dust”? It still exists in the SEC.

By nathan

November 2, 2006 11:40 PM | Link to this

Here is the X FACTOR in all of your (and I’m talkin’ to EVERYBODY), misguided assumptions.

GREGOR BLANCO

Who is he? How about a 23 year old LF in the Braves organization, who last year between 139 games at Mississippi & Richmond combined (66 games at Miss. & 73 games at Richmond), had the following stats:

.290 batting average, .403 OBP, 88 runs scored, 151 hits, 95 walks, 28 doubles, 4 triples, & 31 stolen bases.

Looks to me like our “leadoff hitter of the future” is one LONG spring training look away from finding a job with his old teamates (Francoeur and McCann).

Now, I’m not saying that cox will give him the job right out of the gate. But lets not forget, Chipper was in line for the LF job in 94 before he got hurt. When he did get hurt the job was given to Klesko, another rookie. Quilvio Veras was “dumped” in midseason to make room for Giles to come up, who subsequentally replaced Furcal in the leadoff role after he (Furcal) was injured. Langerhans made the team last year (2005) without any REAL experience. So Cox has shown the penchant for bringing up the kids.

Another thing to consider is this. THE STREAK IS OVER. Yes, I know, JS wants to start a new one. But you know what? The pressure is GONE. Now he can build this team (especially with the “restrictions” -wink, wink - of an 80 million dollar payroll). THE KIDS NEED TO PLAY. It’s time to stop “giving away” the youth just for another division title. Let the overpriced players, (Giles, Andruw, Chipper, Hampton, Hudson, Renteria, could all fit into this category, depending on who you ask), go away. I’m not saying SHIP THEM OUT, I’m just saying if they are “tradeable” for YOUNGER talent…..DO IT!!!

If Andruw wants 20 million a season. Let him get it elsewhere.

Whoever said that Giles should be kept over Renteria has a point. At first I was thinking “what a moron!” (sorry), but after I thought about it, it ACTUALLY makes sense. Just so long as Giles stays healthy. IMO, we have MUCH better SS prospects in the system than 2B. Giles isn’t that old, either. Yes, Renteria is a good deal for a former Gold Glove winner and a veteran who seemed to be a good guy in the clubhouse (not that I was actually in the clubhouse - just going off what I’ve read/heard), but we have a BUTTLOAD of SS prospects. If we solve the leadoff/LF position (whether it’s Blanco or sombody outside the organization), we could afford to have a NO HIT ALL DEFENSE shortstop. As I recall that worked for the Cardinals for a couple of decades with some guy named Ozzie, didn’t it? Or do we insist on have ALL STARS at every position? Not me. I want to watch a GOOD TEAM as a fan, and I’m willing to let any player “go” if it’s for the better of the team (both short term, but more importantly….longterm).

I’ve said it a hundred times: I root for the name on the front of the jersey, more than the name(s) on the back of it. Yes I have my favorite players just like everybody else. But if the Braves traded, released or let every free agent leave for other teams, leaving NOBODY currently on the roster from 2006. I’d still be an ATLANTA BRAVES fan next season. They traded Dale Murphy people…….SURELY MARCUS GILES ISN’T “UNTOUCHABLE”, is he?

Anyhow, back to Blanco. My guess is that JS will sign (trade for) an aging veteran with leadoff experience (Roberts, Finley - as long as they’re cheap), but Blanco will get a LONG look in the spring. And as soon as the “aquired” leadoff hitter fails or begins to, Blanco will be called up. Similar to the way the Mondesi/Jordan/Francoeur saga unfolded.

I’ll “shut up” now. Time for bed.

By Carolina Lady

November 2, 2006 11:40 PM | Link to this

Ohhhh, Scalp, I am so sorry I mentioned sa.., I mean, that word! Won’t happen again!

I’m truly sorry about your family’s loss. The stress of a terrible illness preceeding a death seems doubly difficult.

Mother doesn’t have cancer, but all her other problems necessitate 24/7 care and it’s like walking a tightrope in a gale to keep everything working well.

I have an aide come in for 4 hours Mo-Sa in the mornings to help get her up, fed, bathed, and dressed. That alone takes 2 hours. I don’t know if she has 10 years or :10, but I’ll take care of her the best I can for as long as I can. But it is all consuming, that’s for sure!

Here lately, I’ve had cause for concern regarding her mental state. On Friday she was telling her doctor that a bug had laid eggs in her head and when the sac hatched the baby bugs bit her with their sharp stingers and made her itch. That simply came from somewhere in her mind but she believes it is true. That, almost more than the physical problems, gives me great pause and concern for the future. Frightening.

Baseball is my outlet; I ‘get away’ from it briefly through the Braves.

I LOVE recipes! Do share!! Quite a few here seem to enjoy cooking! :-)))

By nathan

November 2, 2006 11:47 PM | Link to this

nscoots

I noticed that you all were talking about Helms being picked up. Yes, he’d be a fine addition.

The other name that “intrigues” me, is Mike Piazza. Yeah, he’s a little old. But Pratt probably won’t be back, and from what DOB has said, the Braves don’t seem to have much interest in Brayan Pena “sitting” on the bench 4 days a week, at his age.

Plus, Piazza has played some 1B, hasn’t he. Not sure he’d come cheap though, and he may be headed to the AL to be a DH. I’m also not sold on him catching in general. Maybe he catches Hudson (what’s the difference if people steal, Hudson gives up 26 runs a game anyhow? LOL!). But he’d be a nice bat off the bench and a right handed platoon for LaRoche.

Just a thought, however misguided it may be, it’s a though.

By Scalp 'Em Braves

November 3, 2006 12:37 AM | Link to this

Nathan:

Hush yo mouth!! You want to bring in a broken down (though offensive successfully catcher) named Piazza to the Braves?? An Ex-Bum, Ex-Mut and current Pod?? In the words of my buddy from New Yawk, “Fah-Get-Ah-Bout-It”. Let Pizza Boy go to the AL, where the formerly good NL hitters go to the graveyard (otherwise known as the DH).

Carolina Lady - I do love a fellow breakfast cook. Here is the basic pancake recipe, with a twist. Sorry for you Aunt Jemima “out of the box” types - I only cook from scratch.

Orange Pecan Pancakes - 1 egg, lightly beaten; 2 tablespoons vegetable oil; one navel (seedless) orange - zest skin of entire orange, and add to mix. Then, cut orange in half and squeeze juice into bowl. Add 1/2 cup of milk, and 1 cup of self rising flour - chop one cup pecans and fold into mix - may need to adjust liquidity based on juice of orange - the batter should be not too runny - I don’t need to tell you the rest as far as griddle heat, etc.- you are a good southern cook. Let me know how they turn out.

On the subject of your Mom - sounds like Alzheimer’s. They have drugs to help that now. Get her to a doctor who specializes in Gerentology, NOW. Best of luck to you.

By Head Coach

November 3, 2006 12:52 AM | Link to this

It looks like shaun finally managed to bore the blog to death , somehow I’m not in the least bit suprised. Good call Nathan , Blanco is also rated the number one defensive player in the Braves entire minor league system and everybody knows that Cox values defense. the Braves are probably going to resign Daryl Ward as Laroche’s understudy at 1B. Wes Helms would allow Aybar to play 2B and Giles could bring another player or two in trade. Darin Erstad could be an option to be a fourth outfielder and he plays 1B. Yunel Escobar is tearing up the AFL as we speak and is leading it with a .407 batting average. He hit a grand slam today for his first homerun.

By The Grinch

November 3, 2006 02:17 AM | Link to this

I just had a pleasantly unexpected diversion for the last few hours. Scalp ‘em, I cannot ever advocate my Dawgs laying down, but in the condition we’re in at the moment Y’all ought to be able to take care of business. Our freshman QB needs the experience. As for that pathetic “Big East Showdown,” I hope those people don’t really think they have a chance against the big boys. Actually, I hope they do. What’ll probably happen is that one or the other gets invited to a second-tier bowl, they b*** and moan about how they get no respect, then they get shellacked by a three-loss SEC team and crawl back to their hidey-hole. I have a strange urge for pancakes. Night, all.

By ncscoots

November 3, 2006 07:13 AM | Link to this

nathan, I didn’t forget about Blanco, I’ve mentioned him here before. But, as you say, it’s unlikely the Braves would look at him as the first option in LF unless he has an absolutely monster spring. Doubt that Plan A includes banking on a player with zero MLB experience, but you certainly could think that he’s in the 2007 plans SOMEWHERE.

By Richard Cory

November 3, 2006 08:33 AM | Link to this

I seem to remember W.Va. “having a chance”, against Ga., last year. Of course, you may not be including Ga. among “the big Boys”.

By Arkansas Hillbilly

November 3, 2006 09:41 AM | Link to this

Hey Grinch, I got both hands in the air, when you get ready to talley up the puke/stat poll. What’s South Carolina like? I’ve got a strange feeling the Hogs are gonna have their hands full with them. Especially since we’ve been coasting through cupcakeville for the past three weeks. Didn’t they play Auburn pretty tough? I can’t remember much during hunting season. My mind starts to stray off into anot…..

Where you at Matthew???????? W-P-S

By journalist jimmy smith

November 3, 2006 09:59 AM | Link to this

and when will we hear from dob again? dob was out late last night at the streisand concert. may not hear from him for awhile.

now, biscuits … this journalist has not been home to cook biscuits - but will soon try the nice biscuit recipe.

now, hk, it is good to see hk back. and where is hk’s buddy, journalist bob?

now, cold ring finger may prevent glavine from signing the new contract. more later.

now, second base for the braves … bobby likes someone who will get dirty. this journalist remembers when bobby sat jeff treadway for dirt lemke. treadway had a better bat, but lemke could go get the ball. who among the candidates is the best fielder? ah, yes, the name tony pena, jr comes up and he is fast like a lead-off man. go get mccann’s daddy and teach pena, jr how to get on base. could solve two problems.

now, carolina lady, are you out of the corner, yet? this journalist was sent to the corner not long ago . . .

now, chipper jones … who will go hunt with chipper jones at the double dime ranch? only $15,000 for an autographed deer.

now,

By BB FAN

November 3, 2006 10:00 AM | Link to this

Blanco does look like the leadoff hitter of the future. I have never seen him play but scouts have said he has good instincts in the outfield so that is a plus. Defense is important especially as Andruw either gets older or if he leaves.

The guy knows how to draw a walk which is great. What impressed me last year was Blanco’s production did not drop off in AAA (.294, .408, 14 SB) from A ball(.287, .397, 17 SB). It looks like he may need to polish his base stealing skills a little (15 CS in 46 attempts) but that can be worked on over the winter and spring training.

By Russ

November 3, 2006 10:23 AM | Link to this

IF the Braves had spent a few dollars and acquired a closer like wickman, we have probably made the playodds.

This is a CHEAP organization at the top and fans are leaving the team because John Schuerholtz (sp) cannot make the moves needed to win. Say all you want about the Mets but they spent the money and kicked our asses. Maybe if pedro had not gotten hurt……..We have NO pitching outside of Smoltz as a starter. Hudson is a joke IMO.

I’ve been a Braves fan since the 1970s but the Time Warner group is driving me away!

By BB FAN

November 3, 2006 10:26 AM | Link to this

That was supposed to say, “Blanco’s production did not drop off in AAA (.294, .408, 14 SB) from AA ball(.287, .397, 17 SB).”

By Carolina Lady

November 3, 2006 10:29 AM | Link to this

Good morning, jjs! Yes, I have been kindly allowed back into society! And yes, I saw where you had left chewing gum wrappers in that same corner….You will love Scalp’em’s biscuits!

Scalp, many thanks for the pancake recipe! I’ve just picked out a batch of pecans so the timing is perfect. Sunday morning maybe?? I can taste them now! :-))

By Carolina Lady

November 3, 2006 10:32 AM | Link to this

Russ, think how bad it is going to be as fewer and fewer Braves games are broadcast! I hate that worse than anything!

By Matthew

November 3, 2006 10:33 AM | Link to this

Hey everybody!

Sorry I’ve been away for a few days. I’ve been reading more and posting less lately. Anyway, my wife turns 25 today so we are going to the big city of Jonesboro (Arkansas that is) for dinner and shopping at the new Kohl’s tonight (man I’m a great husband). Tomorrow her folks are coming up for our baby dedication on Sunday. Her dad and I will watch the Ark-So Car game on ESPN. Hillbilly, I’m picking the Hogs in a CLOSE one, say 28-21. I’m banking on the Hogs’ running game (5th in the nation) against SC’s run defense (awful) and the return of Sam Olajabutu. I’m looking for a quality win to boost the Hogs into the Top Ten and to follow this week with a drubbing of the (spit, puke) viles on national TV.

Wait, this is a Braves blog. Sorry about that.

On to Giles. I like his gritty play a lot, and the poster who suggested trading Renteria makes some sense. We are overloaded at middle infield in the minors, and trading Renteria would free up some money for a leadoff hitter and/or lights-out setup man. Forgive my ignorance, but not having played baseball as a kid I am at a disadvantage (too far from town to get on a team). Is there that huge a difference between learning 2B and SS? Could Escobar, Andrus, or L. Hernandez not make the switch now and learn it before next year?

Mrs. CL, I am sorry to hear about your mom. Rest assured that your family and yourself are in my prayers.

How’s Bob?

JJS, do you have a recipe handy for deep fried SC gamecock?

By TennesseePaul

November 3, 2006 10:33 AM | Link to this

nathan: I’m not sure Piazza is a good one to sign. his bat is still solid, but his defense is horrid. Base runners just walked to second when he was behind the plate. On top of that, I’d imagine Piazza would want a little more playing time. An AL team could at least get him in the lineup the whole year. I’m not sure he’d want to go out as a back up catcher.

By Matthew

November 3, 2006 10:36 AM | Link to this

Russ:

Don’t go away! We’re getting a new own..

Oops, sorry about that.

Stay anyway!

By Lew

November 3, 2006 10:40 AM | Link to this

Esteemed Journalist Jimmy-Good Morning. I would like to comment on the Chipper autographed ball situation. As you know, I collect Braves’ autographs and memeorabilia, having collected quite an extensive collection. Chipper has never refused to sign an autograph at Spring Training. He has never once asked for money. He has signed bats and any other memorabila that he has been asked to sign for me and for others. I have also seen a group of 30+ people applaud him for taking time when others walked away at the request. I would be willing to believe that if he is charging for signed baseballs on his web site, then he really is donating the money to charity. He may not be, uh, the smartest person on the Braves, but I think he may actually be a fairly decent person. I don’t think this is a scheme to make money for himself. The $15,000 hunting trip probably is a money making enterprise, though.

By ernesto

November 3, 2006 10:41 AM | Link to this

Time Warner does suck! And not just for their apathetic ownership of the Bravos. If you’ve ever been stuck with them as a cable company you’ve got a whole other set of reasons for despising them. Easily one of the worst companies I’ve ever dealt with. I do not wish them well.

By KC

November 3, 2006 10:50 AM | Link to this

Tenn Paul/Nathan:

Yeah, Mike Piazza belongs in the AL at this point in his career. He would be ideal for a team to serve as their DH/back-up catcher.

By Lew

November 3, 2006 10:52 AM | Link to this

Matthew-As a loyal Bulldog fan, who detests Steve Spurrier as all loyal Dawg fans do and should, I would love to see your Hawgs take them to the woodshed. Here’s wishing you a 40 point victory over the Big Chickens. Also, let’s not worry about replacing Renteria. We are not in a desperate financial position like some seem to think, Edgar is good, a decent fielder and is relatively cheap with Boston paying much of his salary. We don’t need to go into rebuild mode. Nathan-No Piazza-can you say Wes Helms?

By Arkansas Hillbilly

November 3, 2006 11:02 AM | Link to this

Journalist J.S. If I had $15,000 to burn, I’d go hunting at the double dime. Looks like some big bruisers being killed on Chipper’s ranch, judging by the pictures. Oops, did I say bruise and Chipper in the same sentence. I wonder if Chipper bow hunts? Thunderheads or Muzzy’s? Drinks budweiser? Listens to DBT?, DAC?, Neil Young? Down by the River?, Pink Floyd while the “Fat Old Sun in the Sky is falling”?

Matthew, I didn’t know much about SC, but it makes me feel better that they have a poor run defense. DMc and Felix could carry us to victory if SC struggles against the run. I think I heard that we’ve never beaten a Spurrier coached team. Is that true? Oh well, stranger things have happened—(see Weaver in W.S.) I’ll go even closer than that…..20-17 Hogs

By journalist jimmy smith

November 3, 2006 11:23 AM | Link to this

this journalist has a baseball collection as well. in that collection is a nl baseball signed by uh, chipper jones. actually sign name that way … authentic, right? anyway, lew … it is good that chipper is willing to sign so many items for the fans. still, $70 is his best deal on his website.

now, with what weapon does chipper jones hunt? this is a good question. recoil could cause bruising. pulling a bow could cause oblique issues.

matthew, it is good that you are going to take your wife to dinner tonight. now, do not attempt to serve her fried gamecock. this is a tasteless meal - stringy, undesirable fare. instead take her to a fine mexican restaurant and order chicken enchiladas - she will devour the enchiladas and will be most happy and appreciative when she returns home (wink, wink). matthew must get some rest.

now, baseball … how about diaz at second base? get him a glove and get him ready!

By The Grinch

November 3, 2006 11:34 AM | Link to this

Mornin’ all! Hillbilly, SC is a strange team. They like to hang just outside the top 25 so they’re under the radar (they also tend to lose two or three games a year to crappy teams so you dismiss them) and when you come in there nice and smug they play you awful hard. The advantage most of the ranked SEC teams have on them is depth, so if you’re well-prepared and can weather the storm, you should have a good chance, esp. late in the game. I hope y’all take it to ‘em; I love to see the ol’ ball coach throw his visor.

Journalist Jimmy, good to see the transitions flying. I take it you had a solid breakfast?

Richard Cory, go…yeah, this is a family blog. Any team can win on any given day, but the odds are against it in general, especially now that they’re getting recognition. Nobody overlooks them anymore, which is bad for them.

By rammerjammer

November 3, 2006 11:45 AM | Link to this

The “x” factor with Giles is that he’s arbitration eligible and management doesn’t want to get gigged. His offense is in a three-year spiral, too.

His position won’t be a problem if he leaves. Renteria is a FAR SUPERIORJS must secure a fifth starter using, in part, money saved from avoiding arbitration with Giles. Must also set aside dough in case “Diaz, leading off” causes night sweats in November and JS springs for Roberts, Pierre, Podsednik, whoever.

By Lew

November 3, 2006 11:52 AM | Link to this

Russ-One losing season in fifteen and you’re running scared? Give me a break. As far as the fans deserting the Braves (and I don’t mean sending them pie), attendance has gone UP the past two seasons, including this year’s losing endeavor. I also do not like TW, but we still have a solid team that will be tweaked over the winter. Keep in mind you can’t put your team together worrying what the Mets will do. You have to see to yourself. It will be done. Chill. Go visit the potato patch and it will all be fine in the morning.

By rammerjammer

November 3, 2006 11:53 AM | Link to this

The “x” factor with Giles is that he’s arbitration eligible and management doesn’t want to get gigged. His offense is in a three-year spiral, too. That’s a concern.

JS must secure a fifth starter using, in part, money saved from avoiding arbitration with Giles. Must also set aside dough in case “Diaz, leading off” causes night sweats in November and JS springs for Roberts, Pierre, Podsednik, whoever.

P.S. A pox on anyone who thinks dealing Renteria is a good idea. He’s the perfect #2 hitter, good glove, very affordable, reliable, and is just old enough that the transition in a couple years to Andrus will be smooth.

By Lew

November 3, 2006 12:09 PM | Link to this

Rammer-Don’t count too heavily on that leadoff hitter. Here is a quote from JS’s Chop Talk article for November-“Overall we need to strengthen our pitching, whether it’s the starting pitching or the bullpen….Other than that, I can’t say how things will unfold,whether the rotation or the bullpen will be the greater beneficiary of anything we may do in the offseason. But we’re going to make every effort to do both….Offensively, I don’t think this team has to take a back seat to anybody.” It sure doesn’t sound like the offense is a concern, Taking this into account along with statements made by BC, I doubt leadoff is a spot they’re worried about.

By The Grinch

November 3, 2006 12:14 PM | Link to this

Rammer, I think Giles’ downward spiral has more to do with injuries and hitting out of order than anything else. I’d put money on him having a solid season next year if we decide to go that route. However, we absolutely SHOULD NOT keep him if we’re going to bat him leadoff. That’s just asinine; the guy’s proven he can’t do it. It wouldn’t surprise me if Bobby tried it again anyway, though. I think whichever one of the two we keep will work out; you could make a case for either one. Giles is more likely to go, though.

By Lew

November 3, 2006 12:25 PM | Link to this

How about this scenario. If you trade Giles, you free up approximately $5million. How about we keep Giles AND Renteria and trade or non-tender Horacio Ramirez? Horacio is much more iffy than Marcus. If you take the $4 million he would be due in arbitration plus the $5 mil left from dumping dead wood (which is what would be left after Wicky’s contract and arbitration raises), you still have $9 mil left for pitching. Also, not to mention the possiblity of trading one or any combination of Salty, Thorman, Brayan Pena or Escobar, which may bring some pitching help. Now I’m not advocating we do this, but it is another way to address the problems.

By Shaun

November 3, 2006 12:26 PM | Link to this

Shaun, is there a statistic for being too selective. Like when a highly compensated slugger comes to bat and he takes the walk because the guy behind him is the second coming of Craig Robinson. Does that skew OBP at all.

I suppose a player’s OBP could be skewed. But, while OBP is the most important stat in terms of run production, it’s not the only important stat—it’s always dangerous to look at one stat. (Though some have accused me of this I’ve never said only OBP is important, simply the most important out of several important stats.)

So, a player with a .400 OBP is great, but a player with a .400 OBP and a higher SLG is even better.

By rammerjammer

November 3, 2006 12:34 PM | Link to this

Lew,

Thanks for the reminders about JS’ mindset. He’s gonna dance with whoever’s in the gym.

Grinch,

I agree about Giles’ issues, and I don’t think the Braves would be thinking about moving him if not for the arbitration possibility. He’s an excellent second baseman, but they can probably do a little worse for a whole lot less.

By Richard Cory

November 3, 2006 12:38 PM | Link to this

So, we are to accept that Ga. overlooked W. Va., in last years bowl game! Me, I kinda believe that the best team generally wins and I don’t like to hear whining or excuses. It is very unbecomong.

By Cole Ringfinger

November 3, 2006 12:46 PM | Link to this

I am Cole Ringfinger and I am new to this blog. I have read much about Dave O’Brien and I understand him to be quite the award winning journalist. I will be making a few posts here and there. Though I profess to be a Braves fan I still hold some sentimental attachment to our old buddy, Tom Glavine of the NY Mets. Tommy and I used to party some at the pizza place over in Roswell. You should hear Tommy sing, “Look for the Union Label” on karaoke. He is quite the entertainer. Wonder how he sounds with the missing teeth? “Wook faw de oon-un wabul.” I better stop now. It is too tempting to go on.

By Richard Cory

November 3, 2006 12:52 PM | Link to this

‘unbecoming’

By The Grinch

November 3, 2006 12:55 PM | Link to this

Keep in mind, I’m not advocating one over the other, I’m just defending Marcus a little. He’s one of the few players who probably doesn’t like Bobby, or at least shouldn’t, since his reputation and market value have fallen off considerably due to stupid managerial moves. That leadoff experiment should’ve been discontinued about a month (at most) after it started. Someone else could’ve not gotten on base and we wouldn’t have lost Marcus’ bat as well hitting him somewhere else. It was worse than Chipper in left field (which should also hurt his HOF chances). Oh, well.

By Troy

November 3, 2006 01:04 PM | Link to this

I have heard about Blanco and I think he’ll be a good player and he probably will be in the mix to play LF in 07’, we have some good options out there in Langerhans, Diaz, Johnson we just need one of them to step it up and show that he has what it takes to be a productive starter. In fact all of the Braves needs could be filled from within the organization, we have a lot of position player talent.

The reality is that the real key to the Braves success in 07’ hinges on the starting pitching particularly Hudson and Hampton. lets face it Hudson hasn’t done to much for us, and I don’t know if we’ll ever see the Hudson (of Oakland), in Hampton case everyone wants to throw him under the bus, but he is virtually untradable he has a huge contract and hasn’t pitched in a year and a half so love him or hate him he is going out there every fifth day so Fans Lets just hope for the best in him.

I believe that overall the Braves put a very competitive team on the field in 06’, it was just inconsistant pitching both the rotation and the bullpen that haunted us. I really like the way the bullpen is shaping up, Bobby has said that he has some good arms down there they just need to get their feet wet, after all this time us fans should just have faith in the best manager of our generation.

If Hudson and Hampton can put it together, and James and Davies continue to progress, and Smotlz is well Smoltz (He’s AMAZING) then we could be all right.

By Troy

November 3, 2006 01:15 PM | Link to this

Heck Gregor Blanco might be auditioning this spring training for the 08’ CF job

By Shaun

November 3, 2006 01:16 PM | Link to this

Marcus’s struggles in the leadoff spot likely had more to do with injuries than anything else. I’m not denying he was uncomfortable, but I doubt he was so uncomfortable that he became a significantly worse hitter. I suppose it’s possible, but given the fact we know he was injured basically all season, I would bet on injury over discomfort.

By The Grinch

November 3, 2006 01:26 PM | Link to this

Richard Stinky, I should have known when you tried to pose as a Braves fan and couldn’t get any response out of insulting the NY bloggers that you’d revert to stirring up whatever &%@# you could with us. Why you hang around here so much when you get bored so easily is a mystery to me. I know you don’t like any team in any sport nearly as much as you like getting people to trip over their own comments and/or get angry. Yes, West Virginia outplayed Georgia last year. No, I don’t think you “don’t like to hear whining or excuses.” That’s exactly what you like to hear. Unlike Georgia (and yes, part of good coaching is always having your players ready no matter what), I’m expecting it this time around. Try again.

By Stinky

November 3, 2006 01:27 PM | Link to this

Grinch, 15 full seasons and 1500+ RBI. Bagwell played in the Astrodome the first ten years of his career, with its big dimensions and dead air. 100 rbi per season for 15 years makes it.

By Troy

November 3, 2006 01:30 PM | Link to this

Just for fun lets get a tally if you can only keep ONE for next year who woul it be Marcus Giles or Edgar Renteria? I Pick Giles

By The Grinch

November 3, 2006 01:35 PM | Link to this

Shaun, I know it doesn’t make sense and I normally would agree but every single time throughout the season, injury or no, when he was stuck back in the #2 hole temporarily for whatever reason he consistently went 3-4 with some ribbie’s. He was on fire every time and right back to 0-for’s and 1-for’s when he got reshuffled. I brought it up here every time it happened and most of Y’all eventually agreed. That’s another situation that defies over-reliance on statistical analysis because it doesn’t make any sense of any kind, at least not when it was that consistently clear-cut. Bizzare, but there it is anyway.

By Troy

November 3, 2006 01:37 PM | Link to this

Lets not forget that just two years ago before some injuries and Chase Utley burst onto the scene a lot of people believed that Giles was the best 2B in the NL. My main point is that it kind of seems that everyone wants to just toss him away for not much more than a middle reliever. I even read somewhere, I don’t remeber who wrote it but they said that if indeed the Braves are shopping Giles then some team is going to be getting a great 2B at a bargain price

By Matthew

November 3, 2006 01:44 PM | Link to this

Hillbilly:

I think you are right-AR hasn’t beaten a Spurrier coached team, until 2006! I can’t wait to see what trick play Gus Malzahn breaks out tomorrow night. BTW, what do you think about Skinner’s pre-punt ritual? I was at the ULM game and probably 5 or 6 thousand Hog fans were imitating him. What a tribute to a punter!

JJS, I was eating an apple when you warned me about fried gamecock. I now have a hole meant for an apple in my upper lip! The wife actually prefers chicken fajitas, so I think we’ll go with the mexican theme.

If we could only have Giles OR Renteria, I would take Giles. (1) He is cheaper, (2) Edgar is on the up side of 30, (3) we have a butt load of minor league IF prospects waiting for the chance to shine, and (4) several teams might be interested in a relatively cheap former All-Star, and we could get the pitching we need.

By Troy

November 3, 2006 01:53 PM | Link to this

couldn’t have said it better myself Matt

By The Grinch

November 3, 2006 01:58 PM | Link to this

Stinky, I never weighed in on the Bagwell debate. Sure you’re not confusing me with someone else? Since I’m on it, though; I’ve always thought he was a good, maybe even borderline great player. I’m not quite sold on him going to the hall, though, and it’s nothing personal. I just think the standards ought to be a little stricter (no way guys like Palmiero should be in there either). It’s starting to get like the Hollywood “walk of fame.” When people like Howie Mandel start getting a star it kind of detracts from the honnor.

By Beachcomber

November 3, 2006 02:01 PM | Link to this

All this talk about Blanco - can’t wait for Spring Training to start - how many days until pitchers and catchers report? Enjoyed all the pancake talk. If you can find a mix called Robbys on the net or they sell it at certain stores (Sonoma-Williams for one),it’s great. Came from a small group of restaurants here on Florida’s left coast - all, sad to say, gone now.

By BB FAN

November 3, 2006 02:10 PM | Link to this

I think Giles struggled because of a combination of injury and leading off. He was not comfortable hitting lead off and has said so many times. And he has been better in the #2 spot for his career including 2006.

Some guys just can’t hit lead off. Just like some guys can’t hit clean up. It’s all psychological but that is the way it is. Again, a player’s psyche plays a big role in the game. Any game for that matter.

By Stinky

November 3, 2006 02:11 PM | Link to this

Grinch, no such thing as Richard Stinky. I’ve never done the Richard Cory thing. I’ve been a bit busy of late. Still read most of blog. The Northern Mule Deer posted the other day, which may be SJA or a copycat. Don’t 9th graders read Richard Cory. That would explain a lot about the abscence of SJA for a while.
And that last post I made about Bagwell was meant for LEW. Sorry.

By 2007 Mets

November 3, 2006 02:11 PM | Link to this

The Mets are may be interested in a 2nd baseman. what’s your proposal.

By ncscoots

November 3, 2006 02:12 PM | Link to this

Actually, Renteria and Giles would cost approximately the same, after arbitration for Giles and given Renteria’s dowry received in the trade. But realistically it will probably be easier to fill 2B than SS, in 2007 anyway. Most folks here know I’m very high on Escobar’s future, but I doubt he’s ready yet (his AFL stats notwithstanding). And you don’t figure the Braves would go into spring training with as-yet-unproven rooks hitting both first and eighth as Plan A. Much as I hate it, Giles looks to be the guy going, if any. BTW, Lew, I do not ever, once, remember a team that non-tendered a left-handed under-30 starting pitcher. I gauge that probability to be as close to zero as can be.

By Richard Cory

November 3, 2006 02:14 PM | Link to this

Grinch, I am not Stinky. Poor fellow is blamed for everything. I’m not goading you, either. You are generally an excellent blogger[sp?]. This was not however, one of your best efforts. The source which I follow most intently, says “the Big East, is the third best conference this year.” They say: the Pac 10 is the best{I disagree},followed by the SEC, and then the Big East. I believe the SEC is now, and has been for the past 40 plus years, the strongest. My point is, the Big East is not now a creampuff. Have a nice day :}

By Arkansas Hillbilly

November 3, 2006 02:19 PM | Link to this

Matthew, You can bet your bottom dollar ole Gus will have some kind of playground magic up his sleeve. Now as for Skinner, I don’t know if he’s doing Yoga, directing air traffic, or spelling out a cheer before his punts. Very Peculiar. BTW, what part of Arkansas are you from, anyway? I’m in Smackover……extreme South central Arkansas.

By Troy

November 3, 2006 02:23 PM | Link to this

what do we have like 2 for Giles and 1 for Renteria

By The Grinch

November 3, 2006 02:34 PM | Link to this

Well, if I confused Y’all I’m sorry. This person I happen to be thinking of has run circles around me before, and one can’t ever be too cautious. The PAC-10 most certainly is not the best conference. And I agree the Big East isn’t as bad as they were but they’ve still got a ways to go. Sorry my last “effort” wasn’t up to your standards; I’ll try harder from now on. :-)

By sam peckinhawk

November 3, 2006 02:39 PM | Link to this

Bring me the head of Gregor Blanco!

By Carolina Lady

November 3, 2006 02:39 PM | Link to this

Troy, I’m partial to Giles.

By Carolina Lady

November 3, 2006 02:42 PM | Link to this

Grinch, just between you and me, you might want to consider R. O. Bert as your antagonist. Stinky has made peace with us- and isn’t it wonderful!?

By Richard Cory

November 3, 2006 02:45 PM | Link to this

Excellent!! Grinning from E.A.R. to E.A.R. “to have what you don’t want, is a particular tragedy”.

By Lew

November 3, 2006 02:46 PM | Link to this

Scoots-You may be right, but is Horacio worth the $4+million he will get in arbitration? He has played in 4 seasons and missed 8 of the past 18 months with injuries. He has had surgery in the minors. When he’s on, he’s great. However, he is wildly inconsistent even when healthy. We already have two question marks (at least) in our rotation, Hudson and Hampton. Also, Horacio has been terrible in the pen and you don’t pay a starter $4 mil to relieve, expecially when he’s lousy at it. Horacio has to go. Take what you can for him and use the money for a front-line pitcher. If, because of injury, you can’t trade him, you non-tender him. However, it is likely he will bring SOMETHING in return. He has to go.

By Matthew

November 3, 2006 02:47 PM | Link to this

Hillbilly:

I’m in Manila, extreme NE Ark. I pastored a church in Fordyce for two years, though (2003-2005). So, do you know Pookie?

I like the Skinner ritual. It may be the thing that gets him noticed by NFL scouts.

Go Bravos!

By rammerjammer

November 3, 2006 02:48 PM | Link to this

Troy,

Since you’re counting, one more for Renteria.

Defensively, they’re both middle of the pack when compared to their peers. But offensively, it’s not even close.

Renteria hits for a better average, with better power and better speed.

Because of his bat, he’s still a top NL shortstop. Can’t say the same for Giles anymore.

By The Grinch

November 3, 2006 02:54 PM | Link to this

I very seriously doubt the individual you’re referring to is an MPD blogger, though I can understand your cordial dislike of him. Richard Cory’s style just looked an awful lot like Tom A. Hawk’s to me for a moment; perhaps I’m a bit paranoid. That doesn’t mean nobody’s after me, though. :-)

By Richard Cory

November 3, 2006 02:59 PM | Link to this

Carolina Lady, I’m not R. O. Bert[but I’m not a Cox admirer either] also I don’t care to be an antagonist. I simply seek fair play.

By rammerjammer

November 3, 2006 03:02 PM | Link to this

Where is the love for Edgar Renteria??? The man is a five-time All-Star, including three times in the last four years!

Giles has made the All-Star team once. Once!

Good grief, how much credit do you give a guy just for being “hardnosed” and “scrappy?”

By Troy

November 3, 2006 03:02 PM | Link to this

3 for giles 2 for renteria is that right?

By Troy

November 3, 2006 03:10 PM | Link to this

i do like renteria its just a fun debate

By Troy

November 3, 2006 03:32 PM | Link to this

NL East Shortstops Rank Em’:

Jose Reyes, Jimmy Rollins, Edgar Renteria, Hanley Ramirez, and Felipe Lopez

IMO 1) Reyes 2) Rollins 3) Renteria 3) Ramirez 4) Lopez

Funny that four last names start with R huh?

By J. Lemke, PhD

November 3, 2006 03:34 PM | Link to this

I have mixed feelings about Giles. His uppercut swing is inappropriate. His exuberance is highly commendable but his occasional fielding gaffes seem to come at the worst times.

For every occasion where Giles is a hero, there is at least another where Giles is a goat, boy!

By Arkansas Hillbilly

November 3, 2006 03:43 PM | Link to this

Yeah, Modica graduated about 5 years after me, though. So we’re not exactly bar room buddies or nothing. I wonder what he’s doing now????

Troy, Put me down for keeping Renteria. I think if Giles would still sting that gap in right-center like he did in his first couple of years, I would probably vote differently. But I think Edgar is a good fit as the #2 hitter at the moment.

By Troy

November 3, 2006 03:44 PM | Link to this

Maybe Giles has suffered from the ban of amphetamines, and he just needs some cases of Red Bull to get through next year :)

By ernesto

November 3, 2006 03:45 PM | Link to this

Giles.

By palmbeachflorida

November 3, 2006 04:40 PM | Link to this

Renteria, Renteria, Renteria. Where I come from, that’s three votes for Renteria.

By GM Wannabe

November 3, 2006 05:27 PM | Link to this

Renteria

By nathan

November 3, 2006 05:36 PM | Link to this

Russ

you said:

This is a CHEAP organization at the top and fans are leaving the team because John Schuerholtz (sp) cannot make the moves needed to win.

How many “cheap” teams out there have FIVE GUYS MAKING OVER 10 MILLION A YEAR, WHEN ANNUALLY AVERAGED OVER THE LIFE OF THEIR CONTRACTS?? (Smoltz, Andruw, Chipper, Hampton, Hudson) You may call this organization, naive, ignorant, stupid, optimistic, misguided or any combination if not all of the above. But CHEAP is not a word to describe them. The payroll was at 80 million dollars, wasn’t it? I suppose if payroll would be raised you’d be one of the first people to b*tch about ticket prices being raised too, wouldn’t you? Like I said some of JS’s decisions in the last couple of years haven’t worked (some have), but CHEAP the man (or Time Warner), is NOT.

Tennessee Paul

I agree with you, Piazza will more than likely end up in the A.L. as a DH. At this point of his career that is where he belongs. I was only asking, not suggesting. I think he could (if he was willing to be an emergency defender/PH specialist), do EXACTLY what Julio did. THE GUY CAN STILL HIT. But having said that, I’m sure he wants to play more than that, so it’s probably not a good match. But coupled with Ward, what a combo (power wise) that would be off the bench for those dramatic game tying 3 run HR’s (or strike outs LOL!) in the 9th inning.

Troy

Nice point on Blanco auditioning for CF in 2008, but my guess is that Francoeur would move to CF (like Dale Murphy did), but who knows? Maybe Bobby wants that ARM in RF.

Also, GREAT CALL on the Red Bull! EVERYBODY should have a case of Red Bull on hand at all time! IMO.

By Troy

November 3, 2006 05:47 PM | Link to this

I was halfway serious about the amphetamines Giles always looks like he is hyped up on something

By Troy

November 3, 2006 05:54 PM | Link to this

Giles- 4 Renteria- 4

By GM Wannabe

November 3, 2006 06:16 PM | Link to this

It’s kind of funny how Brian Giles sort of lost his power stroke as well

By J-MAN

November 3, 2006 06:38 PM | Link to this

To tell ya the truth I love having Giles on the team but we have other needs to address and we have to get something for him and we need to get Carl Crawford and resign Andrew even if he wants a 7 year 120 Million dollar deal then make the deal he is worth it and he gives it all for Atlanta’s fans and we need to get guys that can light up the radar gun over 95MPH. So here is my ideal line-up for 2007

Heres my rotation (note its a 6-man rotation)

Bullpen: Devine Villerille Yates McBride Ray King Baez Wickman Bench: Langerhans Orr Pena Wes Helms

By The Grinch

November 3, 2006 06:46 PM | Link to this

No reason not to be at least halfway serious about it; drugs are a part of the game. Plain and simple. It might also be noted that Hudson started dropping off around the same time. Hmm.

By journalist jimmy smith

November 3, 2006 06:53 PM | Link to this

1. remember that number. 68.

By Troy

November 3, 2006 07:00 PM | Link to this

I know we all want to think that no guy on OUR team used any performance enhancer, but if you had to speculate, who are 3 guys you think might have on the current braves roster?

By Lew

November 3, 2006 07:03 PM | Link to this

When are people going to realize that Carl Crawford does not bat leadoff and the Rays are not going to part with him. The Braves will not be signing him. The Braves really don’t have anyone the Rays would want or could afford.

By journalist jimmy smith

November 3, 2006 07:05 PM | Link to this

1. 1. remember 68. jimmy smith did not type 1. remember 68.

By Troy

November 3, 2006 07:29 PM | Link to this

Veteran Left-handed Free Agent Relievers:

Jamie Wlaker, J.C Romero, Scott Schoeneweis, Ray King, Tom Martin(gasp), Darren Oliver, Aaron Fultz, Aurthor Rhodes, Alan Embree, Steve Kline

Any of these guys ya’ll would like to see in Atlanta?

By Troy

November 3, 2006 07:32 PM | Link to this

forgot one Mike Stanton

By The Grinch

November 3, 2006 07:46 PM | Link to this

Troy, Giles and Hudson are the only two who come to mind immediately. I guess if I had to look elsewhere I’d try the bullpen, though nothing seems to have helped. :-) Four of those relievers you mentioned are ex-Braves. We need King back to bolster the buffet relay team.

By Troy

November 3, 2006 07:55 PM | Link to this

Grinch, point well taken on the fatty boys, if we sign Helms and King concession prices are bound to rise!

By Stinky

November 3, 2006 08:00 PM | Link to this

I vote Giles.

By ernesto

November 3, 2006 08:01 PM | Link to this

King? didn’t we have enough of that basewalking tub-of-goo the first time around?

By Troy

November 3, 2006 08:12 PM | Link to this

Giles- 5 Rneteria- 4

By Troy

November 3, 2006 08:33 PM | Link to this

What can we expect out of Davies next year?

I’m thinking and hoping maybe: 10-12 wins 160 IP 145 K’s 3.75-4.00 ERA.

Thoughts?

By Stinky

November 3, 2006 09:10 PM | Link to this

Troy, how’s Helen. Davies ain’t got it. I wish he did, but he he don’t. Even when he was marginaly successful, he was 110 pithces by the end of the 5th inning. The Braves should dangle him and see if they get something. That is, if he still has value.

Grinch, that hurt man. I’ve been all peaceable and such.

By Troy

November 3, 2006 09:18 PM | Link to this

helen?

By Carolina Lady

November 3, 2006 09:42 PM | Link to this

Stinky, I had the same Greek thought! :-) (We’ve got to get you a new name!)

By The Grinch

November 3, 2006 09:42 PM | Link to this

Hoping for 10-12 wins and an ERA under 4 for Davies is mighty wishful thinking. Not that he may not be able to do it someday, but I really doubt it’ll be next year.

Stinky, I was mainly reacting to a provocative comment by Richard Cory, who sounded a lot like Tom A. Hawk and a half-dozen other identities I remember observing. I threw the generic term “Stinky” out there, and upon reflection you may not be the same guy as all of them (who I’m pretty sure are the same guy, though I might be wrong again). No offense intended. And none to them, either, really; I’m actually rather enjoying a little time off from nastiness. Fuggeddabouddit. Let’s all do the Rodney King thing (no, not PCP).

By Troy

November 3, 2006 10:05 PM | Link to this

I really don’t have that much faith in Davies, I just threw that out there. I don’t know what to expect, however I do think we will see some great things out of Chuck James

By journalist jimmy smith

November 3, 2006 10:19 PM | Link to this

it is good that stinky has been converted to decency. much credit must go to carolina lady.

yes, it is a new stinky. kinder. gentler. civil. able to blog with carolina lady. it is time for stinky to reveal to all what apparently only jimmy smith knows … the real blogging identity of the blogger now called stinky. carolina lady suggests a new name. journalist suggests stinky revert back to the primary name used before stinky adopted stinky. much will be revealed to all. grinch will sleep better.

By journalist jimmy smith

November 3, 2006 10:26 PM | Link to this

carolina lady, biscuits have been in the oven for awhile now and something appears to be wrong. this journalist will give it a few more minutes. may need some advice from carolina lady if scalp’em doesn’t show soon. journalist didn’t have amish butter or buttermilk …

By The Grinch

November 3, 2006 10:32 PM | Link to this

James should at least put up numbers like those next year, and better ones after that. Our rotation is potentially pretty solid. Of course, it’s also potentially pretty combustible. Got an early morning ahead. ‘night, all.

By Andy

November 3, 2006 10:47 PM | Link to this

J-man, I think ken ray is now on the royals. I think he was a rule 5 draft.

By Andy

November 3, 2006 11:29 PM | Link to this

Sign me up for edgar

By TheNorthernMuleDeer

November 4, 2006 12:09 AM | Link to this

Stinky you’re a dirty gutless turncoat!…

By Stinky

November 4, 2006 12:12 AM | Link to this

jimmy smith you’re like a hemorrhoid at an as$hole convention!…

By wannabe a journalist like DOB jimmy smith

November 4, 2006 12:22 AM | Link to this

I am a close follower of DOB—matter of fact, if DOB had to make a sudden stop, jimmy would jam his nose straight up DOB’s rectal orifice!…

By oth

November 4, 2006 12:29 AM | Link to this

Oh, the Humanity, now baseball!…

By ncscoots

November 4, 2006 06:29 AM | Link to this

Troy’s list of LH relievers simply puts an exclamation mark to the pitiful state of pitching in MLB today. Most of the guys on that list keep a job just because they are LH and breathing. What is even sadder is that I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Braves actually sign one of them and call the bullpen “improved” after doing so. Sheesh.

By supergrass

November 4, 2006 10:01 AM | Link to this

National League CY Young candidates Brandon Webb- Arizona Diamondbacks W-L K ERA Whip IP 16-8 178 3.10 1.13 235.0

Carlos Zambrano- Chicago Cubs W-L K ERA Whip IP 16-7 210 3.41 1.29 214.0

John Smoltz- Atlanta Braves W-L K ERA Whip IP 16-9 211 3.49 1.19 232.0

Chris Carpenter- St. Louis Cardinals W-L K ERA Whip IP 15-8 184 3.09 1.07 221.2

I THINK SMOLTZ SHOULD WIN AND HAVE A BETTER CHANCE WITH HIS NUMBERS. BUT I HAVE A STRONG FEELING VOTERS WILL GIVE IT TO CARPENTER, especially cause he led his team in the post season to a world series win (and that shouldnt matter for cy young)

By J-MAN

November 4, 2006 10:21 AM | Link to this

Andy, I didn’t put Ken Ray in my BP I had Ray Kings name in there and I thought Ken Ray was claimed off waivers but thanks anyway and Smoltz should get more votes for the CY Young Award than he will get.

By Lone Wolf

November 4, 2006 11:06 AM | Link to this

Yes , Smoltz should be a lock for the Cy Young except for the fact that Cox let Reitsma blow six of his wins. Yea , he should have finished 22-9 and Cox deserves a good kick in the behind if Smoltz doesn’t win it.

By Troy

November 4, 2006 11:53 AM | Link to this

Renteria- 5 Giles- 5

By journalist jimmy smith

November 4, 2006 11:54 AM | Link to this

this journalist has touched a nerve! this journalist was right. now, back to ignoring the ugly blogger. and where is dob?

By Troy

November 4, 2006 11:56 AM | Link to this

You guys think Scott Williamson would be a good under-the-radar sign if he could be had at a reasonable price?

By Troy

November 4, 2006 11:59 AM | Link to this

Does anyone know how to find out how many possible wins were blown by each of those CY young candidates? That would be interesting to see, I bet nobody is within 3 of Smoltz

By Troy

November 4, 2006 12:04 PM | Link to this

my bad, wins blown FOR not by

By The Grinch

November 4, 2006 12:22 PM | Link to this

Troy, I don’t know what the numbers are but I can guarantee without a doubt no other major league (and damn few minor league) teams would have anyone as consistantly ineffective as Reitsma working the 9th.

I wonder what happened to ol’ Cole Ringfinger? That post yesterday was one of the funniest I’ve seen in a while.

By Troy

November 4, 2006 12:38 PM | Link to this

Give John at least 2 of those wins back and he’s got to be the runaway winner