Braves

By Georgetown Kid

October 16, 2006 04:26 PM | Link to this

Mr. O’Brien,

Are you still of the opinion that the Braves must sign another quality starting pitcher?

I agree with you that the Braves must highly prioritize the acquisition of a solid lefty reliever. But I don’t know if it is realistic to expect the Braves to acquire a top-notch starter this offseason.

I can’t imagine that the Braves would be able to afford a front-line starter in the free-agent market. And if the Braves simply sign a middle-of-the-road starter (in the mold of John Thompson, for example), I don’t see how that would be an improvement over Ramirez or James, or even Cormier for the matter.

However, the Braves cannot go into next season with McBride and Foster as the only two lefties in the bullpen.

Ray King is a free agent, isn’t he?

By KC

October 16, 2006 04:39 PM | Link to this

“Make no mistake, the Mets are going to be the team to beat again next year.”

Gosh David… I just couldn’t disagree more with that statement. Yes the Mets have a great offense, but the Braves offense is every bit as good or better. Yes the Mets have a great bullpen, but provided Atlanta acquires a proven setup man this winter, the Braves also look good heading into next season.

I think Atlanta’s bullpen is going to be comparable to that of the Mets next season… I really do. I think the bullpen is what JS is talking about when he says “our first priority is to strengthen our pitching”. And as I mentioned, Atlanta’s offense already plays second fiddle to no one in the NL.

So what we’re left with now are the starting rotations of these two teams.

Assuming the Mets resign Glavine, they have one number-2 starter and a slew of 5th starters (with Pedro M. out until at least half way through next season). We all know that they’ll be putting offers on the table to Zito and Schmidt, but the thing is… there will be several team offering both of those guys a contract comparable to the gross national product of many small nations. The Mets aren’t going to be the only deep-pocketed team courting those two guys. And if they miss out… who’s available by way of trade? I’m not sure there will be any aces on the trade market this winter.

But even if they do sign Schmidt or Zito… their starting pitching is still thin if/until Pedro gets healthy and back to his old self. That won’t be until at least halfway through next season, and frankly… he might never be quite the same. Shoulder surgeries tend to affect the “stuff” of pitchers much more frequently/severely than do most other injuries & surgeries.

Zito, Glavine, Trachsel, Maine, Perez (and Pedro at some point, but at what level… no one knows)

VS.

Smoltz, Hudson, Hampton, Ramirez, James

If it weren’t for the injury to Pedro, I’d say that the Mets would sign another big starter and would be right on par with Atlanta. But given injury/surgery situation with Pedro… I’ll take the Atlanta rotation any day of the week and twice on Sunday. Atlanta will return to “team to beat” status next season.

By Matt

October 16, 2006 04:45 PM | Link to this

DOB, By chance did you see The Strokes in March? It was a great show, and the newest cd is great in my opinion. I had the chance to meet the band after the show behind the Tabernacle, and they signed autographs and gave pictures to everyone who was out there. I don’t get the impression they are more worried about their image.

The Andruw questions is no doubt the biggest of the year, any idea on when we, the public will know something?

By David O'Brien

October 16, 2006 04:45 PM | Link to this

I don’t think they’d be able to afford one via free agency, but rather would have to trade for one. And if they’re willing to trade, say, Giles and Horacio and Yunel Escobar, and maybe another prospect, I think they could work out something and fill a couple of needs. But I do think they must get another lefty reliever, perhaps first and foremost.

But it’s still so early. So many big things could or might not happen, so it’s pure speculation now. I mean, if someone were to bowl them over with a trade offer for Andruw _ not saying it’ll happen or they’d even accept it _ but if it didn’t interest them, they might get a good young starter right there, along with another good young player or prospect.

Who knows? It’s just still too early. I’m not hearing anything yet regarding teams interested in Giles, etc.

By Lew

October 16, 2006 04:46 PM | Link to this

G’TownKid-I disagree. It has been established that after getting rid of dead wood and paying Wicky, the Braves should have approximately$5million left. If Giles were traded to SD, for example, for say Scott Linebrink, we free up another $5million and fill our 8th inning set up role. That leaves $10 million to spend on a starter and a RH bench bat (Wes Helms, perhaps). Solves all of our problems and we have the $$ to do it. Let us not forget that JS is capable of pulling off a trade involving Brayan Pena, Scott Thorman, Yunel Escobar or Salty. I wouldn’t worry too much. We will have the bullpen set AND another starter and still stay within our budget.

By Head Coach

October 16, 2006 04:48 PM | Link to this

Ditto David. Three lefty’s would look great , not to mention that nobody else in the N.L. would be able to match up with a lefthanded dominant rotation. I would be talking to the Pirates(Zach Duke) , Devil Rays(Scott Kazmir), Giants(Noah Lowry) or the Rockies(Jeff Francis) concerning a possible trade. I favor the Pirates , they had the second worst offensive unit behind the Devil Rays and are looking for a couple of big cheap bats. A Lefty 1st Baseman(Thorman) and an outfielder(Diaz) to bolster their run production. Kazmir is the better lefthander but I favor Duke due to the fact that if the Braves picked him up in a trade he wouldn’t be an unrestricted free agent for another five seasons. Ramirez could go into the bulpen with McBride then we would have Davies , Paronto , Yates , Villarreal , Cormier and Devine behind Wickman. Somebody would obviously get traded. Say Thorman 1B, Diaz OF , Cormier RP and Villarreal RP for Zach Duke LHP, Rajai Davis OF and Landon Jacobsen RP. I know I’m repeating myself but hey , it takes care of all the Braves pitching needs. It creates depth , saves money and maybe even makes Andruw resignable after 2007. And I would offer John Thomson a minor league contract , sign Wes Helms as a backup 3B and move Aybar to second thereby making Giles tradeable. Am I crazy or just to damn smart for my own good ?

By JMar

October 16, 2006 04:49 PM | Link to this

Well here’s a nice coincidence - Tom Glavine is a lefty. Wouldn’t mind adding him to the rotation while stealing him from the Mets, at least to see him win 300.

And what is your point, KC? You’re saying that because the Mets will have the exact same shortcomings next season as they did this, in which they destroyed the division, and we might get Mike Hampton back, that all of a sudden we’re the team to beat again? Dream on.

By TennesseePaul

October 16, 2006 04:49 PM | Link to this

DOB: Thanks for the post. It’s a good read. I will have to agree with the Killers review. I have not been impressed with that CD. The cover model is a good foreshadowing of the quality of music.
I just picked up a Kings of Leon CD. I really enjoyed it. More so than the Black Keys. I’ll have to try out these Whigs and see what’s up with them.
I thought My Morning Jacket was a “mid-western” band. Somewhere out of Kansas or something? Where abouts are Kings of Leon from?

By TennesseePaul

October 16, 2006 04:51 PM | Link to this

KC: Unless something horrible happens to the enter Mets team, they’ll be the team to beat simply based on this years results. The team to beat certainly won’t be branded on the Braves after this season. I’ll agree though that the Braves will be much improved next year and should give all the teams a run for the money. But they won’t enter the season with that label.

By Brian

October 16, 2006 04:54 PM | Link to this

I’m sorry. In baseball, you don’t construct your roster to match up with one team.

Just a side note, BTW: the great Mets offense scored less runs than the Braves did. Philly was first with 865 runs scored(they play in a band box), Atlanta was second with 849 runs scored, NY was third with 834 runs scored. Atlanta had an OPS of .791, NY had an OPS of .780. Atlanta did this with Chipper Jones hurting all year and with no lead off man.

By rammerjammer

October 16, 2006 04:54 PM | Link to this

Bring back Mike Stanton. Still effective, a perfect compliment to McBride, and he satisfies BC’s desire to have at least one really old guy in the pen.

By KC

October 16, 2006 04:55 PM | Link to this

Georgetown Kid

I agree with your assessment of the Braves starting pitching situation. It simply doesn’t make sense for Atlanta to touch their current rotation (already considerably bolstered with the healthy returns of Hampton and Ramirez) unless it’s to add a top-tier starter. And with the deep-pocketed, starting pitching desperate teams out there (especially the NY teams)… what are the chances of the Braves landing a Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito? Very slim.

Now if there’s one on the trade market… the Braves might have as good a chance as anyone. But will there be a bona fide number-1… or even a number-2 starter on the block this winter? Not likely. Usually you would look toward players that eligible for free agency at the end of the season as players that might be available for trade at the beginning of the season. But the only big starters eligible for free agency after next season are with teams that have the money to hang on to them and try to resign them (assuming they’re worth it): Colon (Angels), Zambrano (Cubs), Carpenter (Cardinals), Kenny Rogers (Tigers), Curt Schilling (Red Sox).

Bottom line… with big spenders lining up on Schmidt and Zito’s doorsteps, the Braves aren’t going to sign either. And with little to nothing in the way of top-of-the-rotation pitchers available by trade… forget all the talk about Atlanta further altering the starting staff. The good news is that the there isn’t much out there for teams like the Mets to choose from either, and the Braves’ rotation already looks pretty good.

By David O'Brien

October 16, 2006 04:55 PM | Link to this

KC, you’re assuming Trachsel, Maine and Perez are going to make up the back of their rotation. I don’t think that’ll be the case at all.

Sorry, but until the 97-game winner with the money to spend proves otherwise, it’s going to be picked by most impartial observers to be the team to beat over the team that finished four games under .500.

By KC

October 16, 2006 05:04 PM | Link to this

TennPaul:

I can appreciate that the Mets will be the reigning NL East champs… possibly the NL Champs (but not the WS champs). As such… they will get a lot of well deserved respect.

However, the Mets were talked about as the team to beat by many earlier this season despite the fact that the Braves were the reigning division champs.

On paper… I like what I see right now from Atlanta more than I respect what I see in the Mets (and that’s assuming that they sign Schmidt or Zito).

By Head Coach

October 16, 2006 05:14 PM | Link to this

Jmar , you just dont get it do you ? Nobody and I mean NOBODY has three lefthanders in a five man rotation. It’s unheard of and almost freakish. It would give the Braves a tactical season long advantage over the entire N.L. It would be a matchup nightmare for everybody else. Throw in Wickman closing and a leadoff hitter , guess what ? that’s right….. the Braves would be the team to beat no matter if they get picked to finish first or if the Mets get picked first. Bobby Cox has already said it and I see it , the Braves are going to have an outstanding team in 2007.

By rammerjammer

October 16, 2006 05:25 PM | Link to this

Interesting, DOB, that you’ve heard nothing about Giles. Sounds like the Braves shouldn’t expect a lot in return for him, which is too bad.

He’s too young to have peaked, so he’ll probably rebound elsewhere. But his down season means we won’t get much for him.

Another Millwood situation (get a minor leaguer and hope for the best)?

By Jeff

October 16, 2006 05:45 PM | Link to this

A. Jones may sell some tickets, but if you want to put fans in the stands and sell a lot of merchandise, too, win games (well, the Cubs excetped).

Mananagement would be crazy not to see what the market would bring for A. Jones. A couple of good young pitchers plus the money saved by not having to shell out millions to Andruw could be plowed back into…yes, you guessed it, pitching.

By TennesseePaul

October 16, 2006 05:52 PM | Link to this

what are the chances of the Braves landing a Jason Schmidt or Barry Zito

KC: Adding Schmidt to the rotation would do more to hurt this team than help it. He’s hype. His career is average at best. And if it’s a choice of Glavine or Zito, I’d rather have Glavine and I’m not that big on the guy.

The Braves will need more proven starters if they are to be labeled the team to beat in the East despite this years results. There’s no way around it. The Phillies need upgrading as well, and they could very well get it. They had a winning season and would be next in line to receive the label. The Braves will be the under dogs next year unless they can add Johan Santana. Perhaps it’s best this way.

By TennesseePaul

October 16, 2006 05:59 PM | Link to this

You know, I’ve seen reports that the Indians have Giles in a list of possibilities. It was reported last week. I don’t know that they have anything we could use though… but who knows.

By Lew

October 16, 2006 06:01 PM | Link to this

Head Coach-I don’t know about being too smart for your own good, but a good bit of what you say makes sense. I would love to see Zack Duke as aBrave. However, I don’t like the idea of getting rid of Villarreal. He had just come back from two surgeries and he looked pohenomenal after the All Star break. He turned into an extremely dependable and effective long relief man. He also was relatively effective as a spot starter. I think he should be an integral part of the bullpen in 07.

By Bob

October 16, 2006 06:29 PM | Link to this

Sorry DOB, but I disagree with you about the Whigs. I think that the Modern Skirts are a lot better than the Whigs.

By KC

October 16, 2006 06:37 PM | Link to this

JMar:

“You’re saying that because the Mets will have the exact same shortcomings next season as they did this, in which they destroyed the division, and we might get Mike Hampton back, that all of a sudden we’re the team to beat again? Dream on.”

You apparently hear me saying “take a 79 win team… add Mike Hampton, and wallah! You have a 95-100 team”. I agree with you, that would be silly. But that’s not what I’m saying at all.

Let me first point out that if we had the same bullpen we had in September all season long… the Braves would have won over 90 games. But re are the reasons why the Braves are a much better team heading into next year (without making a single trade or signing a single free agent) than their 2006 record would indicate:

1 – Mike Hampton: Here are a few things for you to chew on in regard to exactly what we’re getting back with Mike Hampton… • Doctors insist that it takes 18 months to fully recover from Tommy John surgery. Most pitchers return after only 12 months and struggle in their first several months back as a result. Hampton will hit that 18 month mark in March and will have fully recovered. • Hampton’s (non-Colorado) career numbers: 117-73, 3.57 ERA • After leaving Colorado, it took Mike Hampton a half-season to get his head and mechanics straight again. From the all-star break of 2003 (his first year in ATL) until he went on the DL last year… his numbers as a Brave were: 16-6 with a 3.43 ERA. • From the all-star break of 2004 until he went on the DL last year, Hampton went 13-2 with a 2.54 ERA. He was throwing the ball as well as anyone in baseball when he got hurt last year (he was 4-1 with a 1.83 ERA on the 2005 season before getting hurt). 2 – The bullpen will be VASTLY improved from what the Braves brought into last season. Bob Wickman will be there from day one. Macay McBride and Tyler Yates were learning on the job this year, but learn they did. McBride posted an ERA of under 2.00 from July 16th onward, and Yates September ERA as the Braves’ setup man was 2.70. Ad the return of a healthy Blaine Boyer and John Foster 2 of the Braves most productive relievers in ’05), and go out and get a proven veteran setup man… and you’ve got yourself one helluva bullpen.

3 – Horacio Ramirez: Missed half the season due to injury this year, but will be healthy and back in the rotation. He’s a lot better than most people realize, and if he can stay healthy… I’ve got $20 that says he’ll show it.

4 – Tim Hudson: The odds of Tim Hudson posting another ERA over 4.00 are pretty long. Hudson’s only 30 and he’s lost none of his stuff. He had mechanical inconsistencies this year that led to his erratic control. Any one see the last game he pitched? Look for a bounce-back season from Huddy. Sorry, can’t offer any wagers on Huddy… already got one with GRINCH.

5 – Chuck James: The Braves will have him in the rotation for a full season this year.

Put all that together with the fact that the Mets really can’t count on Pedro next year… and I think the Braves need only a setup man to look better than the Mets.

By KC

October 16, 2006 06:51 PM | Link to this

TennPaul:

“The Braves will need more proven starters if they are to be labeled the team to beat in the East”

I can only assume that by this statement… you have your doubts about one or all of these 3 pitchers: Mike Hampton, Tim Hudson, Horacio Ramirez. I just went on a long rant about Hampton. Historically, when pitchers the caliber of Tim Hudson struggle for no apparent reason (as he did this year), almost without exception… they come back strong the following season. As for HoRam… if you’ll forgive my reposting something from the other day, I’d like to point out why I think he is undervalued by most fans. HORACIO RAMIREZ: Over his first two seasons in Atlanta (2003/2004), HoRam went 14-8 with a 3.59 ERA, and the Braves regarded him as a top-of-the-rotation kind of lefty in the making. The injury bug bit for the first time in his sophomore season when he missed 2/3 of the 2004 season. He enjoyed a healthy season last year, but struggled somewhat in ’05, posting a 4.63 ERA and gave up a lot of long-balls.
This year he again missed much of the season due to injury, and his 2006 season when he was on the mound was peculiar. In his very first start of the season, he left the game early and headed straight to the disabled list. His last start of the season was one in which he also left early and was immediately placed on the DL. In both instances he tried to pitch through his problems before finally alerting BC that he couldn’t keep going. With that in mind, for the purposes of evaluating his 2006 season… let’s toss those 2 starts out and focus on the 12 starts he made between DL stints. In those 12 starts, Ramirez went 5-4 with a 3.89 ERA. Over that stretch, he was either remarkable or awful every time out… there was no in between. The good news is that he was mostly remarkable. He made nine outstanding starts in which we went 5-1 with 1.70 ERA. The other good news is that Roger MCDowell got him sinking the ball more, and his HR-per-9 innings ratio was cut in half from the previous year. In short, Ramirez had 3 terrible outings, and 9 truly outstanding ones. He certainly showed again this season the type of pitcher he’s capable of being. If you take away those 3 bad starts, he looked like a guy who could compete for CY Young at some point. But even with those 3 horrible outings, a 3.89 ERA is almost identical to the ones Glavine and Zito posted this year. We needed two more starters, and we got them… Mike Hampton and Horacio Ramirez. The rotation is complete. Respectfully, I don’t even understand the assertion that the Braves need more starting pitching, let alone agree with it.

By NLCHAMPS

October 16, 2006 07:17 PM | Link to this

Floyd will not be back next season. The Mets will look to sign a power hitting left fielder. This will provide balance to the lineup and make them less vulnerable to left handed pitching. Glavine is not a “LOCK” to have his option picked up next year. Duaner Sanchez will be back in the bullpen next season making their bullpen even better. The Mets will sign a top pitcher this off season and have several players in the minors with a good shot at making the rotation. Minaya will make sure the 2007 Mets starting rotation will be better. As for the braves pitchers Hudson, Hampton and Ramirez. There are many questions. 1. Can Hudson rebound from a bad 2005 season? 2. will Hampton be the same pitcher? 3. Will Ramirez find the form that made him a important part of the rotation in his first year? There are many IF’S in the braves 2007 season.

By NLCHAMPS

October 16, 2006 07:23 PM | Link to this

I meant a “right handed” power hitting left fielder to provide more balance to the lineup.

By KC

October 16, 2006 07:52 PM | Link to this

NL CHAMPS:

I promise I’m not trying to one-up you here… but I honestly think there are more questions facing the Mets this winter than the Braves.

In response to the stated questions facing the Braves:

Tim Hudson – Yes, obviously that’s a BIG if. If he’s on, he’s one of the best. Can he put 2006 behind him and keep the ball down and out of the middle of the plate next year like he’s done his entire career until this season? I think he can, and will. Again, historically pitchers of his caliber bounce right back after a season like this one. But obviously we’ll just have to wait and see.

Mike Hampton - I really don’t think this is much of a question at all. Again, after the 18 month (post-surgery) mark… pitchers almost never show any ill effects from the surgery. He’ll hit that mark in March. And his ability shouldn’t be questioned at all. He’s a bona fide ace.

Horacio Ramirez - “Will Ramirez find the form that made him a important part of the rotation in his first year?” He already did. Please see my last post (6:51). It is not a question of his form or ability. It’s simply a question of his health… and that’s a legitimate concern.

As for the Mets… I promise I’m not trying to diminish what the Mets have accomplished this season, but we both know that there was virtually no competition in the NL east… or in the entire NL for that matter this year. Given their starting pitching, I think the Mets overachieved this year. And that’s to be commended. We dog teams for underachieving, so why shouldn’t we give the Mets credit for overachieving? I think the rotation problems make what the Mets did even more impressive. That said, if they don’t drastically upgrade the starting pitching… I don’t think they’ll win 97 games again.

Questions facing the Mets rotation:

1. Pedro Martinez… He won’t return until sometime in the 2nd half of the season. Even then, there is a distinct possibility that he won’t be quite the same pitcher. Elbow surgeries have progressed to the point that they almost never affect the “stuff” or velocity of a pitcher (after proper recovery time). Shoulder surgeries on the other hand, often do.

2. Can they pick up an ace (or something close to it): Zito or Schmidt? Yes, they’ve got the money to spend, but so do a number of other teams that are also starved for starting pitching.

3. Even if the get Zito or Schmidt, they still need to add at least one more quality starter to go with it. Can they do that?

4. Will they re-sign Glavine? In all likelihood, they will but there’s no guarantee.

NL CHAMPS… respectfully, there are more questions facing the Mets’ rotation than the Braves’.

By StingerSplash

October 16, 2006 08:00 PM | Link to this

Good call, DOB, on MMJ and the DBTs, one of the best live bands out there today.

By David O'Brien

October 16, 2006 08:09 PM | Link to this

Brian, nobody said you do construct your roster to match up with one team. The Braves need another lefty reliever regardless, because you can’t turn to McBride in every situation when you need a lefty. Come on, how can you argue otherwise? (Several Braves certainly did not, including Chipper, who said the same thing the last week _ they need another lefty reliever. And the Braves do plan to get one.)

As for the rotation, I pointed out that Hampton joining James and perhaps Horacio is a good step, in that it gives the Braves three lefties. That’s good against a lot of teams, if the lefties are good pitchers.

And by the way, if your division was dominated by a team that returns every crucial piece of its powerful lineup, you damn sure better thing about how to beat them. You do play them 19 times, remember…

Yes, KC, I agree: There are more questions about the Mets’ rotation than the Braves.

And the Braves could really swing that balance with the acquisition of a certain 40-year-old lefty…. (just having fun, folks. No need to go down that road again if you don’t want to in today’s blog.)

By David O'Brien

October 16, 2006 08:17 PM | Link to this

TenneseePaul _ Kings of Leon are from … Tennessee, man. And not just based in Nashville, they’re from the hills around there.

My Morning Jacket is from Kentucky, of all places. Louisville.

Did someone say that last Strokes CD was “great?” Come on. Hey, respectfully disagree. But nothing wrong with differing opinions.

HBO’s playing the hell out of Walk the Line these days. Can’t get enough of the “Jackson” duet scene. Great stuff….

By Lew

October 16, 2006 08:19 PM | Link to this

KC-I have questions about two of the three. Hampton’s return does not bother me at all. Not only do I think he will come back strong, but the almost two year rest may well prolong his career. Hudson bothers me considerably. I’m not sure why you think he (or any other pitcher for that matter) automatically returns to form after an off year. If his problem is mechanical and lasted the entire season, I question why they couldn’t correct the mechanics a lot sooner than 07. As far as Horacio goes, I have not heard anything about his recovery. This in and of itself would bother me, but I’m not so sure the he will come back so well from the flexor tendon injury. The only other person I know who has had the problem is Thomson and he sure didn’t come back well. In fact, the tendon problem may have forced him to alter his delivery and may have caused his shoulder problems. Add to this the fact that Horacio has spent time on the DL in three of his four ML seasons (and surgery in the minors) and I’m not exactly heartened by his ability to avoid injury. Even when healthy he is inconsistent. With him due a raise up to $4million, I would try to trade him and failing that, I would consider not offering him arbitration Add that $4mil to the $10 mil I mentioned earlier and you can afford whatever top level pitcher you can find.

By KC

October 16, 2006 08:19 PM | Link to this

I think you’re probably right. I think the Braves will look to acquire on more solid lefty and a proven setup man. After that… I think they’ll be through with the pitching staff.

Leadoff hitter? Maybe. Dave Roberts and Juan Pierre are both free agents, and both may get offers from the Braves. If they do sign a free agent leadoff man, I think that will make Giles’ departure 100% certain.

By journalist jimmy smith

October 16, 2006 08:26 PM | Link to this

warren spahn. they need warren spahn. now, the rainout … plays right into the crafty hands of illustrious manager willie randolph who will now have a rested tom glavine. this journalist predicts tom glavine will pitch like a “P” player in the next game. now, who says bobby can’t/won’t use mcbride every night? isn’t that what bobby does when he likes a pitcher? and who’s to say that we won’t see remlinger back as a left-handed reliever? situational. situational.

By john

October 16, 2006 08:36 PM | Link to this

How exicited are you for the My Morning Jacket Show!!

By Stinky

October 16, 2006 08:42 PM | Link to this

One easy way to shore up the pitching woes is to jetison Andruw. He’s not a leader. He could never head up a kangaroo court or show other hitters how to approach an at bat. Get rid of him while the gettin’ is good. Its pitching and defense that wins championships, not aging, streaky-hitting centerfielders who’ve lost a step.

By KC

October 16, 2006 09:06 PM | Link to this

LEW:

You don’t think 6-7 months is long enough for a tendon surgery to heal? I’m no doctor but… that sounds like a pretty good recovery period to me. If HoRam is healthy, I think he’s shown a world of ability. If I were GM of another team and HoRam were on the block… I pounce on that deal.

As for Hudson… here’s why I said that. A couple weeks ago I got to wondering how many prior examples there were of what we’ve just seen from Tim Hudson… An excellent pitcher in the prime of his career (all his “stuff” and velocity as good as ever), just have a lousy year for no real apparent reason.

I spent some time randomly looking up noteworthy pitchers. Everyone I could think of who pitched over the last 20-30 years. I probably looked up the career stats of at least 50 starters. Everyone from Roger Clemens to Bob Welch, Dave Stewart to Dwight Gooden, John Smoltz to Jack Morris…

I found a number of instances where good, healthy pitchers in the prime of their careers had a lousy season in which their ERA ballooned well up over 4.00. But in every case, (provided it had nothing to do with a sever injury), they bounced back strong the next season.

Here are a few instances of this I uncovered: Roger Clemens, Jimmy Key, John Smoltz, Bob Welch (it wasn’t in the prime of his career, but he bounced back with a good year), Mike Mussina (’96), Kevin Brown, Tom Glavine (though it wasn’t really the prime of his career), Barry Zito (though he hasn’t bounced back to where he was several years ago), Phil Niekro, Jerry Koosman.

I promise, I’m not cherry picking, and I’m not leaving anything out. I just couldn’t find any instances where a pitcher of Hudson’s caliber didn’t bounce right back.

Aside from all this… Tim Hudson had moments of brilliance all throughout this season, including his last start. It’s all still there. What happened this year? Who knows. But I find it almost unfathomable that he wouldn’t bounce back. I’m not predicting a CY Young award for him next season, but I’d look for an ERA back in the low-mid 3.00 range.

By J-MAN

October 16, 2006 09:09 PM | Link to this

This is what I would do if I were GM in order of importance. [Have Too’s] 1. Resign Andrew 2. Trade for Carl Crawford 3. Get another Lefty in the bullpen

[Don’t Have Too but would be nice category] 4. Trade for some young flamethrowers (Kids who can get it up over 95+ like the Tigers young studs and the Marlins of 2003) 5. Explore the option of getting another ace mabye clearing up the budget to do it, either go through free agency such as Zito or Schmidt or go trade route such as Pettite or Mussina or offer the World for Roy Halliday(won’t happen but worth a shot.)

1. Sell naming rights of Turner Field, I mean he doesn’t even own them anymore and it would give the braves some extra money to sign someone. How does Coco-cola Ballbark in Atlanta sound. Like Cha-Ching

DOB, let me know what you think and tell me the odds of any of this happening.

By KC

October 16, 2006 09:09 PM | Link to this

Stiky:

Please give me one rational thought… one fact, one statistic… hell, one ANYTHING to back up your claim that Andruw’s lost a step.

Let’s hear it.

By KC

October 16, 2006 09:12 PM | Link to this

Lew: meant to say tendon “injury”

By Stinky

October 16, 2006 09:13 PM | Link to this

KC, sore knees.

By Stinky

October 16, 2006 09:15 PM | Link to this

Kc, Andruws’s onwn admission that he needs to loose weight for his sore knees.

By Calvin

October 16, 2006 09:15 PM | Link to this

Mr. O’Brien, I just don’t see the Mets letting “a certain 40-year old lefty” go this off-season. Even if the Braves offer something that Glav…er.. a 40 year old lefty a nice contract, I can’t see them(Mets) not match or even exceed the contract. I hear that Mike Gonzalez will probably be available this coming off-season. Perhaps there is your lefty that is needed. Kerry Wood(I know, I know, injury prone) is going to be going to the bullpen from reports out of Cubby land and the Cubs won’t keep him because he is due a nice raise next year. Maybe, there is your set-up guy…or perhaps Eric Gagne, who the Dodgers will probably not resign for the same reasons as the Cubs, can be fit that role.

Can’t wait til Feb…

By KC

October 16, 2006 09:16 PM | Link to this

Stinky…

Hasn’t slowed him in the field. Look that season totals for put-outs, fielding percentage, etc.

By Stinky

October 16, 2006 09:16 PM | Link to this

ck, Andruw missing a lot of balls that he would have got to 3 years or 20 pounds ago.

By David O'Brien

October 16, 2006 09:22 PM | Link to this

Kerry Wood? KERRY WOOD!? Eric GAGNE? Are you insane? Or merely a masochist?

By Stinky

October 16, 2006 09:33 PM | Link to this

KC, Charitable scorekeepers have propped AJ up due to his rep. He is an old 30 year old. He’ll win one or two gold gloves that he doesn’t deserve just running on fumes. It’s easy to vote for an old standby.

By Thomas

October 16, 2006 09:52 PM | Link to this

Braves pitching

• John Smoltz: Great pitcher, just exersiced his contract option for 2007. He is the Ace of this staff, he needs to be the leader. His only problem is his age 39.
• Mike Hampton: Just had tommyjohn surgery. Braves are depending in him to be back fully healthy, and have the kind of years he had in houston. He would bring more consistancy to the rotations.
• Tim Hudson: Had his worst season of his career, this year. He got better the last 2 months of the season, but it was too late. He needs to be more consitant.
• Chuck James: My favorite pitcher tied with Smoltz, good young lefthander, if he could work for next season on keaping the ball down, and working on lowering his HR’s allowed totals.
• Horacio Ramirez: Another injured plagued season for him. If he can stay healthy he is a great pitcher to have.

This could be a very very good pitching staff, but all of them need to be consistant, not just Smoltz.

By Feeanch

October 16, 2006 10:04 PM | Link to this

Dave O’B— Add another band to your list of amazing acts from the South: MUTE MATH. They’re from New Orleans. And actually even better than The Whigs live. Sound like a cross between “The Bends” era Radiohead, mixed with the Police and stadium sounding-U2. And their lead singer sometimes plays a Keytar (yes, the dorkiest instrument ever; remember Revenge of the Nerds and Devo?)

I saw MM at Bonnaroo this year and again a few weeks ago in LA. I actually won a trip to see Tom Petty w/ The Strokes from 92.9 Dave FM, and saw they were playing the night before at a club. HOLY CRAP! Huge guitars, swirling keyboards, an absolute crazy drummer. Best live show I’ve seen since MMJ walked out barefoot onstage at the 12 noon opening show of Bonnaroo 2004 and I had no idea who they were.

Anyway, MM are headlining the Roxy on 10/27 and the Whigs are opening. If you want to meet up for a beer beforehand, email me. And go download Mute Math from iTunes now. I totally agree with your Strokes comments too. I’ve still got a bad taste in my mouth after their Tabernacle show in 2003 where Kings of Leon opened and played 45 minutes. The Strokes headlined and played 50 minutes…BOO.

And since this is a Braves Blog, I’ve got to say something baseball related. How would you rate Aybar’s performance? Should we get rid of Giles and move Willy to 2nd?

By Thomas

October 16, 2006 10:08 PM | Link to this

Hey speaking of Kerry Wood, what would happen to him. His a greattt pitcher when healthy, just he isnt healthy never.

By David O'Brien

October 16, 2006 11:05 PM | Link to this

Feeanch, that sounds like an interesting band, for sure. If there’s a sweep in the World Series, I’m there. Otherwise, that’s the night of Game 5.

I don’t know what I haven’t heard of them. I’ve gotten a bit behind in the past couple of months, I think, as far as reading up on new bands, etc. But if they really sound like a cross between early Radiohead, Police and U2, that’s a pretty potent mix. I’ll definitely have to check that out, see what they sound like.

I saw MMJ open for the Doves in the now-closed Cotton Club in the basement of Tabernacle in 2002. Outstanding show all the way around. Saw Kings of Leon with Secret Machines about 1-1/2 years ago at the Fillmore in San Francisco. Also excellent. Kings of Leon are really great live.

By Calvin

October 16, 2006 11:26 PM | Link to this

lol Mr. O’Brien

I guess that previous blog was kind of like the silly suggestion of trades you see from people. You know like Langerhans for Pujols and Johan Santana and Liriano for Jorga Sosa, Chris Riestma(I’m sure I butchered that one), and Mike Remlinger….lol.

By eware

October 16, 2006 11:37 PM | Link to this

DOB, what’s the best Drive-By Truckers album to buy? I have the song “Where the Devil Don’t Stay” and its awesome! I could use a little help.

Seriously, why are the Black Keys not the biggest band in America????!!!

What do you think of Matt Costa? Not a big fan of the surfer rock, but a few songs of his are pretty good.

“He’s the patron saint of quality footwear.”

By David O'Brien

October 16, 2006 11:43 PM | Link to this

Oh, and I haven’t seen enough of Aybar _ actually, almost none _ at second base to know if he can play there every day. Braves brass tells me he can, but fact that they didn’t play him there at all makes me wonder. Wouldn’t they want to see him if they planned to have him play there? Unless it’s Prado’s job to lose, and Aybar is penciled in as a utility guy, which could definitelky be the case because Braves need a utility guy who could play 3B for extended stretches if Chipper’s hurt.

Or, they might be considering keeping Giles, though I really doubt it. That money can be better spent elsewhere, and as we’ve discussed, there’s only a very limited number of places where the Braves can cut back on salary, 2B being the prime one.

By David O'Brien

October 16, 2006 11:50 PM | Link to this

Eware, the Black Keys aren’t the biggest band in America because they’re too good to be popular with the masses. That’s my best line of reasoning, because I agree with you, they should be.

Can’t go wrong with any DBT, but the four CDs I’d highly recommend are Southern Rock Opera, The Dirty South, Blessing and a Curse, and Decoration Day.

Listen to “Outfit” off Decoration Day and you might ask why they’re not the biggest band in America.

By David O'Brien

October 16, 2006 11:54 PM | Link to this

This Arizona Cardinals collapse is horrifying to watch, but can’t turn away. Like watching a car crash.

Speaking of … weren’t there some folks here about mid-summer talking about how baseball was over because the Braves stunk and the Falcons were about to start playing, and the Falcons were a team committed to winning and did things right?

Or maybe I’m just imagining that I read that here a couple months ago…

By Lew

October 17, 2006 12:04 AM | Link to this

KC-All I can say is that I hope you’re right. DOB-Decoration Day is great. As far as the Black Keys-I still think that guitarist needs a good bass player and a much better drummer. He’s got some good licks, but the overall presentation lacks a full sound. But, as Dennis Miller once said-I could be wrong. Listened to the first Zeppelin cd today and it’s still great after almost 40 years. Listened to Let It Bleed by the Stones, too, Must be National Nostalgia day.

By TennesseePaul

October 17, 2006 12:28 AM | Link to this

KC: I can only assume that by this statement… you have your doubts

I haven’t finished your post, but I believe I know where it’s going. Hampton needs 18 months and has them, Hudson is bound to bounce back, Ramirez had 9 good outings out of 12, Smoltz is Smoltz, James is the future, Thomson was on a roll before the injury, Sosa was undefeated on the road, Reitsma has good stuff, Remlinger is a proven lefty…etc. I have my doubts, of course. Forgive me. This season has shaken my confidence in our pitching. Prior to this year, we had number 1 starters through and through and they never really missed time. Maybe here or there, but for the most part the core was healthy. Not any more. That cannot be assumed. I think that’s what is burried in JS’s statements about how he doesn’t need to go through this more than once to realize he doesn’t want to do it again. But that isn’t why I made the statement.

No KC. My statement wasn’t based on my doubts about the pitching. My statement was based on what I believe the assesments of the pundits will be; and they will not back this rotation enough to say that the Braves are the team to beat. Not after what the Mets have done. They may call the Braves the sleeper, or the biggest challenger, but they will not fully endorse a rotation with Hudson (coming off this season), Hampton (comming of injury), Ramirez (coming off injury), James (in a full season), Boyer (coming off injury), Foster (coming off injury), and Smoltz at 40. As a Braves fan, I think we’ll be fabulous and I look forward to it. But I don’t think non-fans are going to view the team as optimisticly as you and I. But it doesn’t bother me. Some of our best seasons have been when the weight was on to prove we could do it. And next year the weight is going to be piled on there.

By Cory

October 17, 2006 12:51 AM | Link to this

Why does Foster’s name keep getting mentioned along with Boyer? John was Foster was released last week. He’s gone. Off the 40 man roster.

By Head Coach

October 17, 2006 01:03 AM | Link to this

Talk about mother nature doing a team a huge favor. Mondays rainout gives Glavine one more day of rest and makes him available for a possible game seven. As if the Mets needed anymore help , lol.

By Lew

October 17, 2006 01:07 AM | Link to this

Cory-You’re the second person on the blog to say Foster is gone, but I haven’t seen anything offical. Where did you hear it.

By David O'Brien

October 17, 2006 01:14 AM | Link to this

Head Coach, what do you mean it makes him available for Game 7? Game 5 is Tuesday, Game 7 would be Thursday. Are you talking about Game 7 for the World Series? I sure hope so, because to think he’d be available to start Gm 7 of the NLCS is absolutely inconceivable.

Cory, you’re right. A lot of people just missed that announcement, as it was barely a line in the paper. Foster is off the 40-man. He could be re-signed, though, but the fact he’s off the 40-man should tell you plenty about his prominence in the Braves’ plans. Or lack of prominence.

By David O'Brien

October 17, 2006 01:17 AM | Link to this

Lew, gotta disagree on the Keys, man. That sound is full, bro. Now, the White Stripes could use a bass player, but the Keys … which CD did you listen to? I think they’re phenomenal. You try Chulahoma, which is all blues covers of Junior Kimbrough? You can’t listen to that and think it’s not a full sound. It’s the blues.

And Rubber Factory _ that just rages, man. Great, great stuff.

By David O'Brien

October 17, 2006 01:19 AM | Link to this

Head Coach, maybe you were talking about an inning or relief or something? Possible, but doubtful. Not gonna risk that with Glavine, I’d bet. He’s NEVER pitched in relief.

And if he starts Tuesday, he could start Game 1 or Game 2 Saturday or Sunday in World Series.

By Head Coach

October 17, 2006 01:20 AM | Link to this

Yep , Cory is correct. Foster was released a week ago. Manny Acosta had his contract purchased from Richmond and was added to the 40 man roster. Wayne Franklin cleared waivers and opted for free agency. Kevin Berry and Josh Burrus were outrighted to Richmond and as you probably already know Ken Ray and Luis Hernandez were claimed off waivers.

By The Grinch

October 17, 2006 01:24 AM | Link to this

Lew, you still up? What a coinkideenk. DOB, the Cardinals just finished one of the greatest choke jobs in history. That said (and keep in mind, I absolutely thought Leinhart would be a bust prior to this), he showed me something. If he gets a coach to go with all the talent he’s already got around him, he’ll be something special. Denny Green should be fired immediately. No need to let him finish out the season for pride. NOW.

By Calvin

October 17, 2006 01:28 AM | Link to this

You hear the latest on A-Rod? Apparently, Lou Pinella, the new Cubs manager as of later today, wants the upper management to pursue a trade for the 31 year old slugger. It appears that the Cubs will increase their payroll to try and accommadate the trade. I wonder if he will play third base or go back to his original position at ss. I think this is a good fit for him because a. Pinella knows Rodriguez well from their time in Seattle and is sort of a father figure to him. That would be interesting to say the least given A-Rod’s recent playoff failures.

By Kentavo

October 17, 2006 01:29 AM | Link to this

DOB - save your money for The Who’s “Endless Wire” - first studio CD in 24 years, out Oct. 31. Then go see ‘em live Nov. 22 at Gwinnett Center.

By Head Coach

October 17, 2006 01:33 AM | Link to this

Thats what I meant. If it goes seven games then everybody has to be prepared to possibly pitch. I wonder what happens if it keeps raining ? A playoff double header ? Why is Bud Selig so adament in not changing the first round from five to seven games ? Its two freaking games , if the cold weather is such a concern then start the season a week earlier or shorten the break around the all star game.

By David O'Brien

October 17, 2006 01:37 AM | Link to this

Grinch, I concur on Leinhart. I, too, was a skeptic, but he really impressed me tonight.

Kentavo, I’ve heard some good early buzz on that Who CD. I’ll definitely get it. Supposedly it’s got a lot of their classic sound, even the Baba O’Reilly riff to start the first single, or something like that.

By The Grinch

October 17, 2006 01:54 AM | Link to this

Funny how that works, isn’t it? Some guys can look and act as stupid and inept as they can possibly be until the gun fires, then excel. I even lost a bet to my cousin that Matt would suck and the rest of the team would do well. Goes to show I don’t know everything (WRITE IT DOWN!!!). Hell, Joe Montana was lightly regarded in exactly the same way for the same reasons. The Grinch is humbled in his own arena (no pun intended). Glavine lucked out tonight. There’s a lot of destiny floating around right now.

By Head Coach

October 17, 2006 02:51 AM | Link to this

Well I was just sitting here crunching numbers over the course of the last four seasons and you talk about eye opening stats. How obvious can it possibly get. 2003 101-61 five core starters , six total. 2004 96-66 six core starters , eight total. 2005 90-72 seven core starters , nine total. 2006 79-83 eight core starters , twelve total. you see the slow drop in quality pitching ?

By The Grinch

October 17, 2006 03:05 AM | Link to this

And yet you continue to defend Tim Hudson. No offense, dude; it just seems ironic to me. Fire off if you want; I’m going to bed. Night, all.

By Head Coach

October 17, 2006 03:48 AM | Link to this

Yes I believe in him and will continue to defend Hudson. The man is a winner , period. He is 55-34 with a 4.04 ERA over the past four seasons. Thats an average of 14 wins 8 losses and 210 innings a season. Hudson is a core starter and part of the solution and what is your malfunction , Grinch ? You want to dump a winner and how is that going to make the Braves a better team ? how ? go get some sleep , you need it.

By Thomas

October 17, 2006 08:13 AM | Link to this

Whats gonna happen to Ryan Langerthan, and Matt Diaz?

If they get a leadoff hitter that can play the outfield, one of them is going to get traded. Most likely will be Langerthans, because Matt Diaz was much more valuable offensively than Langerthans, but langerthans is more valuable defensevely. Maybe they get a leadoff hitter who plays second base, and nothing happens to them.

By Robert

October 17, 2006 08:17 AM | Link to this

“Please give me one rational thought… one fact, one statistic… hell, one ANYTHING to back up your claim that Andruw’s lost a step.”

From 97 thru 2000, Andru stole at least 20 bases a season. He hasnt stolen 20 in the last four seasons combined

By Shaun

October 17, 2006 08:26 AM | Link to this

“Well, Robinson did drop off in the numbers that matter most to run production.’

That statement sealed the deal pal. You know absolutely nothing about baseball. No offense. And I’m not trying to be an jerk. That statement is ignorant and ridiculous.

Frank Robinson had the best season of his career after he was traded to Baltimore and won the damn Triple Crown. He also won 2 WS rings with Baltimore and went to the WS 2 other years. He batted ~ .300 with a OBP of ~ .400 while in Baltimore for 6 years. His slugging percentage in the six years with Baltimore was ~ .543 which is higher than his career slugging percentage of .537. There was no dropoff there. Numbers don’t lie.

I can’t wait to hear your stupid justification for this one.

BB FAN,

Frank Robinson’s best season was 1962 with the Cincinnati Reds at age 26. Here are his percentage stats: .342 AVG/.421 OBP/.624 SLG in 701 PA.

Yes, Robinson was obviously an amazing player in Baltimore, but you have to admit he was at least as good (maybe better) in Cincinnati. Players generally peak in their late 20’s, but if their peak is as high as Robinson they are still going to be amazing after their peak.

You bring up his slugging percentage in his five years in Baltimore. But in his last five years in Cincinnati (in his late 20’s) here are his slugging percentages: .611, .624, .442, .548, .540. Yes, that’s twice he posted an over .600 SLG.

In Cincinnati he created over 100 runs a season in all but two seasons out of 10. In Baltimore he created 100 runs a season in 3 out of 5 seasons and came close in a fourth. He was as at least as good a run-creator in Cincinnati as he was in Baltimore.

Here’s his baseball-reference.com page:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/r/robinfr02.shtml

Scroll down to ‘Special Batting’ and take a look at those runs created numbers. You’ll see that Robinson was obviously at least as good in Cincinnati as he was in Baltimore.

Anyway, Andruw Jones is not Frank Robinson. Jones has never posted an OBP over .400 and never batted over .303 in a better offensive era. Although Jones will remain pretty productive, he’s not going to be close to what Robinson did in his 30’s.

By The Grinch

October 17, 2006 08:26 AM | Link to this

I’ll try this once more, I suppose. Hudson’s been in a steady decline. He’s still above average but only barely. He had all year this year (injury free) to fix his problem, and couldn’t/didn’t. That doesn’t make sense. If he gets neither better nor worse, he’ll be worth exactly what he’s paid next year. The two seasons after that, he’ll be making twice that much, which we can’t afford for someone pitching 13-12. That’s #1 money for a #4 starter. You and KC are betting he’ll bounce back to 2000 form, which would be the only way he’d be worth it. Maybe he will, and I hope he will, but I doubt it. All I’m saying is that if we trade him now we could get a young power pitcher for 13.5 million (or less) that EVERYONE could be more confident in. Please look at his pitching trends of the last three years and look beyond this upcoming season. That’s all I’m saying, and I don’t think that makes me a raving lunatic.

By KC

October 17, 2006 08:51 AM | Link to this

HEAD COACH:

Don’t worry… GRINCH is going to have to buy me a frosty beverage next year when Tim Hudson finishes the year with another excellent ERA.

By Shaun

October 17, 2006 09:01 AM | Link to this

BB Fan,

You are still stuck on triple crown numbers. A hitter’s job is not to win the triple crown, it’s to create runs. Winning the triple crown obviously helps, but there are other statistics outside of the triple crown statistics that better indicate run creation.

Average doesn’t take into account walks or total bases and RBI are dependent on baserunners in front of a hitter and a hitter’s lineup spot. And non of the triple crown stats completely tell you how good a hitter is at avoiding outs like on-base percentage (1 - OBP = Out Percentage).

By KC

October 17, 2006 09:01 AM | Link to this

Robert:

Before all of Ken Griffey Jr’s major injuries (in Cincinnati), we was still one of the greatest outfielders of our generation… but not a base-stealer.

The same is true of Andruw. He is not a base-stealer. He never really has been. Sure, where he was 19-20 years old he stole a few… but that’s not his game man.

I’m just saying that step Andruw supposedly lost doesn’t show in the field. He still gets to more balls (that he shouldn’t be able to get to) than any outfielder in the game. His putouts and fielding percentage are right where they have been the last several years.

Of course… there’s always Stinky’s explanation… a conspiracy on the part of the score keepers.

By CD

October 17, 2006 09:14 AM | Link to this

Dave, DBT live in Athens but all but one of the band grew up in northwest Alabama, the Muscle Shoals area. That’s why there’s so much Alabama in their songs. You should also check out the Gourds, who play a greasy, sloppy but great stew of country-rock with a little accordion now and then. Does it look like Andruw will be here all next season if he’s here opening day?

By Lew

October 17, 2006 09:21 AM | Link to this

DOB-I got Magic Potion because someone said it was more rock. The Dude is a good guitarist, no doubt. I really would like to hear him in a ful band, though. Now a Blues album would definitely fare better with the two person format. As far as the White Stripes-Ole Jack is ok. I’m not convinced he is as great as some contend. Now Meg Whit