AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2006 > September
September 2006
Beat Astros, or let them beat Mets?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A few thoughts while wondering if it’s better for the Braves to sweep the Astros — not that that’s much of a realistic option — and keep them out of the postseason, or lose three against them so the ‘Stros can win the NL Central and possibly face the the Mets in the first round of the postseason….
Personally, I’d rather see the Astros get to the postseason — and Philadelphia win the wild card — so the Mets can understand what it’s like to go against Oswalt, Roger and Co. without your own pitching staff on top of its game. Just so others could see it’s not so easy….
Kyle Davies. Oh, my. He’s 1-5 with a 13.16 ERA and .434 opponents’ average in his past eight starts, and lasted 3-1/3 innings or fewer in five of those eight. After going 2-1 with an 0.77 ERA in his first four starts as a rookie last season, he’s 8-12 with a 7.40 ERA in his past 31 games (24 starts)….
It’s not next year’s rotation I’m concerned about with Davies, it’s post-traumatic stress disorder. (Kidding. Sort of.)….
Davies is 9-11 with a 6.15 ERA in 28 career starts….
I’m glad Roger Clemens and Chuck James are pitching tonight, because it makes it a little easier to accept that I will have to miss Tony Joe White playing at Smith’s Olde Bar tonight in Atlanta. If you folks don’t have prior commitments, I’d strongly recommend the show and BBQ at Smith’s….
The Braves went 7-11 against the Mets this season despite the Mets posting a pedestrian .259 batting average and 4.83 ERA in the series. I think numbers were skewed by so many one-sided games in the series….
Five of the first eight games in the Braves-Mets series were decided by one run, but all of the last eight were decided by three or more runs, and five of the last eight were decided by a whopping eight or more runs….
Noted Mets-killer Chipper Jones played just half of the 18 games against them this season, hitting .314 with two homers and eight RBIs in 35 at-bats in those….
Three reasons the Mets kicked the Braves’ tails in the season series: 1. Carlos Beltran, with an are-you-kidding-me nine homers, 19 RBIs and 1.451 OPS in just 12 games against the Braves; 2. Jose Reyes, with a .338 average, seven extra-base hits and .440 OBP in 18 games; 3. Paul Lo Duca, with a .392 average (20-for-51) and 1.015 OPS in 13 games….
The Braves “limited” past nemesis Carlos Delgado to a .246 average and three homers, though he did have 14 RBIs in 16 games against them….
Wondering what’s worse right now, the state of professional sports in Atlanta or the state of professional football in the ACC? (Rim shot. Thank you.)….
Did I mention, the Mets will be done in four games in the first round if Philadelphia wins the wild card and New York has to face Houston in the division series? If the Dodgers win the wild card, it’ll go five. Dodgers over Mets….
This isn’t Mets-hating here. I like this Mets team, a bunch of good guys and an incredible lineup. Just reality. Their starting pitching has dropped off so sharply since early July, and they haven’t been hitting much lately, either….
The Mets went 13-2 with a .303 average and 4.23 ERA from Aug. 17 to Sept. 2. They’re 10-15 with a .239 average and 4.61 ERA since….
Speaking of listless finishes, the Braves are 4-5 in their erratic past nine games. They hit 12 homers in the four wins and seven homers in the five losses, including no homers in two losses and one homer in another….
The Braves are 12-12 in their past 24 home games….
This Braves team relied far too much on the home run. Don’t tell me speed doesn’t matter, Shaun. Look at Jose Reyes. Rafael Furcal. Dave Roberts. Those teams are doing pretty good. Braves need at least ONE speed guy. They don’t have even ONE….
That said, the Braves scored enough runs to win the wild card and compete for the division. More than enough runs. Their glaring problem was obvious to anyone paying attention: Pitching. No closer for most of the season, and a patchwork rotation for the entire season….
I’m gonna have to agree with Schuerholz that rebuilding the pitching staff should be Job 1 this offseason. And whatever it takes, if I’m GM I’m going to get another proven starter this winter, and another proven setup man….
And lastly, but certainly not least(ly?), let me take this moment to offer a sincere apology to the blogger known as Stinky. The real one. Stinky, I am sorry for implying a few days ago that you stated _ and this is the only time I will mention his name _ SJA was your hero.
As it turns out, I was wrong. The IP addresses indicate that was a Stinky imposter — Journalist Stinky, I believe it was — who made that claim. It was not you, and I apologize for implying I had proof it was you.
Also, I’m sorry that you took my “meet me at the ballpark” comment as a threat, at least enough that you felt compelled to include it in your plea for a public apology. I didn’t mean it as a threat.
Just wanted to clear this pure place of all the personal insults and such that were driving away good bloggers, and let you or anyone else know where I’d be all week, if you wanted to continue said insults face-to-face. That’s all. But it’s water under the proverbial bridge now. No worries.
Carry on, blog denizens. And please, within the parameters we discussed two days ago.
Ah, I feel better already.
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McCann’s performance should be appreciated
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
While it’s a stretch to say he’s been overlooked _ he did make the All-Star team, after all _ it’s fair to say that Brian McCann’s rather remarkable season has gone underappreciated outside of Braves Nation.
The man is putting together a season the likes of which most veteran catchers only dream of having once in a career, and he’s done it in his FIRST FULL SEASON in the majors, at 22 years old.
McCann has been overshadowed nationally by Minnesota’s Joe Mauer, who will finish in the top five in the AL MVP balloting and perhaps as high as second behind Derek Jeter.
But as great as Mauer’s numbers are (.350 average, 35 doubles, 12 homers, 83 RBIs, .433 OBP, .505 slugging), an argument could be made that McCann’s are every bit as good, and McCann probably won’t finish in the top 10 for NL MVP.
If the Braves were going to the playoffs, that might be different. Attention would be paid to his latest surge and to his overall performance. But they’re not, and it’s not.
So here goes: McCann is batting .336 with 34 doubles, 24 homers (twice as many as Mauer), 92 RBIs, a .392 OBP and .583 slugging. He has a higher OPS (.975) than Mauer (.938).
McCann has done it while catching all season and playing half his games in Atlanta, often in high heat and humidity. Mauer plays half his games indoors at the Metrodome and has spent some games at DH to give his body a rest.
When McCann should be fading down the stretch of his first season, he’s instead gotten a second wind and has been raking like never before.
He leads the Braves with 26 RBIs in September and has hit .375 with eight homers and 24 RBIs in his past 18 games. He’s hit .329 with 18 homers and 63 RBIs in his past 62 games, and has a robust 1.033 OPS since the All-Star break.
Much attention is paid to McCann’s housemate, Jeff Francoeur, the ex-football star who has a flair for the dramatic home run and a cannon arm. But the simple fact is, McCann might be one of the top five under-24 position players in the majors, a pure baseball player who plays the game like a 10-year veteran.
Now if I can just get him away from that new country and into some Cash and Hank and Waylon, the kid will have it all together.
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Braves and The Man in Black … back to the good stuff
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
DADGUM, as per your 8:15 a.m. post on previous blog _ DING DING DING!
After going to bed last night feeling as if I needed to shower following the crass exchanges I took part in, and feeling entirely displeased by the recent direction of the blog, and specifically the interesting and engaging bloggers’ frustrations over that direction, I agree: Time to step back and regroup.
So for now, I’m taking your suggestion. No more mud-slinging, and I STRONGLY URGE THE REST OF YOU TO DO SAME. I realize this isn’t going to get through to one or two unnamed individuals, but I implore all decent folks to PLEASE READ DADGUM’s POST FROM THIS MORNING and follow suit. I know I will.
With that in mind, please don’t read into any lack of responses from me toward those individuals. They know where I’ll be all week if they care to take this up personally, but for my part, I’m not going to sully this fine place anymore with the sophomoric back-and-forth. Done.
SO ALL THE GOOD PEOPLE, let’s get back to what we were doing for months and months, before those two arrived. And guys like DON, you’re more than welcome to come back and point out how bad the Betemit trade was.
In retrospect, I didn’t know how good we had it when the spitting matches were about baseball matters. Please come back, Don, and I mean that. Besides, you had a pretty valid point, but just wore us out with it. But come back, and feel free to wear us out with it again. It’s MUCH preferred to the petty, dumbed-down discussions we’ve had for the past few days with folks who don’t care about the Braves or The Man In Black. I mean, on the one had we have Braves, BBQ, Cash, Hank, Led Zep, Steve Earle, etc.
And on the other hand we have … well, you know the silly alternative of recent days.
It’s too easy to sit behind a keyboard and be someone you’re not, to be the bully when you can’t be in real life. But if there’s no response from those you’re targeting, only an addled mind could continue down the road of back-and-forth exchanges without the “forth” part of the equation.
So again, I urge all the good folks who’ve been driven away in recent days, come back and let’s get this thing back on track. Not a word of response to the little ones. And those who want to continue the mud-slinging and threats, my personal e-mail address is dobrien@ajc.com _ feel free to write.
Again, I’ll be at the ballpark all week. But as for the blog, no one here likes you. Trust me on that. You’re not welcome here. Stay if you want, but I’m sure there’s other blogs where your kind hang out. Find one.
I’m not going to waste this space and the good forum we had. I can’t blame decent folks for cringing and staying away after re-reading some of the utterly classless and witless comments that have made it through the filters and into this space in recent days. We don’t mind getting a little rude and crude, but within reason and on topic. Not squabbling like, seriously, 7th- or 8th graders. I mean, the level of insults here of late wasn’t even up to high school exchanges.
So ignore them. They’ll post here under their usual couple of names and under several other screen names, surely all day today (they either don’t work, or have jobs that aren’t very demanding). But it’ll be obvious it’s the work of sad, desperate people. No need to continue to encourage them anymore. Let them crawl back into their holes or sling mud at me and, perhaps, a couple of you. No worries.
Andruw first back-to-back 40-homer seasons by an Atlanta player…. Chipper out of the lineup yet again…. Smoltz 15 wins…. Braves with a sliver of a chance _ but not really _ to finish at .500…. A chance to gain some small measure of revenge against the Astros by keeping them out of the postseason. The Mets’ chances in the first round, given a September slumber that’s so similar to Braves’ seasons past….
There’s any number of topics to discuss. Have at it.
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Respect from the new NL East champs
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Yesterday’s blog has become bogged down from the number of responses, not to mention poluted by a “couple” of sad little folks who don’t offer much in the way of baseball insight or discourse on any other enjoyable pursuit.
I can’t do much about the latter, other than tell the vast majority of you pleasant, intelligent folks to try and grin and bear it and stay with us. I don’t have time to ask that their IP addresses be blocked or whatever, and I’m a strong advocate of freedom of speech anyway.
But anyone who’d direct a profane post at the Carolina Lady … well, you’ve reached a new bottom floor in the house of humanity. Rather pitiful, really.
Anyway, with the new NL East champion Mets in town, and ESPN debuting its 30-minute show today about the 5 reasons that Bobby Cox can’t be blamed for the Braves winning only one World Series (I had nothing to do with the show, so don’t start on me either way), I thought I’d empty my notebook here of quotes I got from Mets players in recent weeks and today about the Braves and the run the Mets finally ended. Make of them what you may:
BILLY WAGNER:
“It’s unbelievable, to have the run that they’ve had for so long, to constantly be chased and to win. For [many of the] 14 years they were written off…
“Granted, the East over the last 4-5 years has not been strong. But the Braves were the one team that’s been consistent.
“They established that tradition, and that’s what every organization wants to achieve.
“Every year it was Atlanta. When I was in Philly, and before that when I was in Houston, when we knew we were going to play Atlanta in the playoffs. Every year we were gearing up to play Atlanta.”
“For me and some of the guys in here [Mets clubhouse] who’ve been tortured by the Braves, nothing would be better than to beat the Braves every time we play them.”…
WAGNER on COX: “Without a doubt, if Bobby Cox isn’t there, it’s hard to imagine they’d be where they are. His players come to the ballpark and play with a lot of intensity. They’re young now, but you still don’t want to play them.
“They play hard for nine innings. It’s like playing the Yankees _ you may win, but you’re worn out when it’s over. They play nine innings.”
TOM GLAVINE:
“It’s not going to be like beating any other team. It’ll come with a different sense of accomplishment because of what the Braves have done. Being able to win the division is one thing; doing it in a year when you can unseat the Braves, it adds a little bit more meaning.”
“It’s been a good year for us [Mets]. We put together a great team. Everyone’s played to the expectations that we had, and that’s the reason why we’re here.”
JULIO FRANCO:
“Of course. Who wouldn’t want to be part of something that magical? That’s a lot of division titles.”
“That’s a great accomplishment _ but it’s [over], unless you continue winning. Don’t get me wrong _ anybody would want to be part of it, and I was proud to be part of it.”
“I’m sure that [Braves] front office is going to work to fill the holes this winter.”
“This [Mets] team is pretty good. I guarantee you those guys in the [Mets] front office aren’t going to sit there and [rest on laurels].”
GM OMAR MINAYA:
“What they’ve done is more than impressive. If they were to give a Pulitzer Prize in baseball, Bobby Cox and John Schuerholz and that whole organization deserve the Pulitzer Prize.
“I’m a big admirer. I have a lot of respect for their front office and what they’ve done, as a baseball person…
“Whatever happens this year, they’re still a model. All baseball people see them as a model for success. There’s no doubt.
“I can tell you there’s not a baseball person, a baseball team, that does not view them as THE model for success. One year is not going to change that.
“There’s not enough positive words I can say about that gang, especially their manager, Bobby Cox, their players, John Schuerholz … if there were a Pulitzer Prise awarded in baseball, they would win in a landslide.”
MICHAEL TUCKER:
“You talk about 14 straight appearances in the playoffs, that in itself is tough to do. And you’re talking about winning your division every year…
“First, you have to have a good team for an extended period of time, and you have to be able to deal with injuries, health…. It’s mainly about consistency, about getting the job done. I don’t think ny team has gone to the playoffs more, even the Yankees, not that many times in a row.
“Fourteen division titles _ that’s incredible. They’ve never gone in as a wild card. They’re winning division titles every year.”
On COX’s impact: “It means a lot. Bobby keeps a consistent atmosphere. You go through a stretch where it doesn’t go too well, he never gets caught up in it. Go through a good stretch where you’re winning, it’s pretty much just, ‘Keep it going, keep an even keel, a straight line, don’t have big peaks and valleys.’”
And as an added bonus, here’s some stuff from Cubs first baseman DERREK LEE on the Braves’ run:
“It’s almost unbelievable. I don’t know if you’ll ever see that again. Just to be able to play that well that long, to be that consistent… It says a lot about their management, to put a team out there like that every year. And Bobby Cox, obviously, does an incredible job. They’ve had some good fortune, too, avoiding injuries, that kind of thing. But it’s just an incredible accomplishment.”
“[If they] go get another pitcher, and with an improved bullpen _ their lineup is fine _ they’ll be right back on top.”
OK, that’s it. Just wanted to share that stuff with you. The crowd is predictably small tonight. Hard to believe it’s a Braves-Mets series in late September, and there’s just an air of emptiness in the place.
I think I’ll go take advantage of no line at Skip & Pete’s BBQ.
Talk to you later.
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Francoeur fading down stretch, and that’s a shame
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
One of them has played 46 games since June 24, and the other has played 82 games since June 24.
One of them has 35 extra-base hits, 17 homers, 45 RBIs and 41 runs since June 24, and the other has 27 extra base hits, 11 homers, 44 RBIs and 44 runs since June 24.
Chipper Jones is the one who’s played 46 games since June 24, and Jeff Francoeur is the one who’s played 82 games since that date.
Guess which guy has more extra-base hits, home runs and RBIs in that span? That’d be Chipper.
I’m not sure, but I think Francoeur’s performance might just fit into the Law of Diminishing Returns. He looks tired, worn out, and to me it’s a shame that he has let starting every single game this season possibly affect the greater purpose, which is to perform at the highest level possible as frequently as possible in order to help the team.
He means well, he’s a great kid, and he’s certainly done the “as frequently as possible” part of the equation. But Francoeur’s insistence to play every day certainly hasn’t helped his performance, and I think it’s probably hurt it.
(Before we go any further, let’s point out that everyone wishes Chipper had stayed healthier and played more this season, and that if he had, considering the level to which he played when healthy, the Braves just might have been in this wild-card race to the very end. OK, now back to Francoeur).
After going 2-for-18 during the debacle of a 1-3 weekend series at Colorado, Francoeur’s average is down to .258 and his on-base percentage is down to an alarmingly awful .290.
He says he’s a far better hitter than he was last season in his rookie year, and he’s probably right. But it’s not showing up statistically, and that could have something to do with the fact he’s started ever game in his first full season in the majors. It’s a grind enough without playing every inning of every game, and to allow a 22-year-old rookie who plays as hard as Francoeur, to allow him to go out there day after day, inning after inning, just for the sake of proving _ what, that he’s a hard-nosed, hungry kid? _ to me makes no sense.
It’s done now, or almost done. But in the future, I’d hope Francoeur and the Braves would be more sensible and that Bobby Cox will make the kid sit a day or two next year, or at least pinch-hit a day or two, to rest when he shows signs of fading.
And if these aren’t signs of fading, I don’t know what is: Beginning with his 0-for-4 in the second game of a Sept. 3 doubleheader at Philadelphia (the second doubleheader in two days, and he played all four games), Francoeur has gone 15-for-77 (.195) with two homers, six RBIs, six walks and 20 strikeouts.
In 12 road games during that stretch, he’s 4-for-42 (.095) with one homer, three RBIs and 10 strikeouts.
He grounded into double plays in each of the last two games in Colorado while going 1-for-10 in those slugfests in which everyone else was teeing off on mediocre pitching and building stats in the thin air of the Coors Launching Pad.
Francoeur has also made a couple of fielding gaffes in the past few weeks that could probably be attributed to fatigue, letting routine balls skip past him for multiple-base errors.
The Braves have a lot of problems that need fixing this winter. It’s been a hugely disappointing season, and there’s plenty of troublesome areas we’ll address in the coming days and weeks.
Francoeur isn’t the biggest problem, not by a long stretch. He’s a hugely talented kid who could end up becoming a star before long. He’s got tons of raw power and a cannon for an arm.
But it’s time that someone _ Bobby, Terry Pendleton, Chipper, Francoeur’s housemate Brian McCann _ sit him down and make him understand that it’s not about trying to be a young Cal Ripken, some sort of Iron Man who can crash into walls and keep playing every inning.
It’s about becoming the best player he can be. It’s about deciding that taking pitches and working counts and getting on base more isn’t an option, but a necessary part of the job description.
Francoeur is tied for the fourth-worst OBP in the league (.290), the fifth-worst road batting average (.217), the second-worst OBP vs. right-handers (.276). He’s too good for that, even in just his second season.
Chipper, by the way, leads the league with a .355 road batting average (did I mention it sure would be nice if he can figure out a way to stay healthy next year, maybe hire a track coach to give him a stretching program and a trainer to get in the best condition of his career?).
Six games to go. Let’s hope Francoeur, for his sake, gets through them without passing out on the field. He’s come this far and paid a big enough price with his stats.
Oh, and please excuse any typos. I’m writing and filing this in the Denver airport, and I’m late for my flight and don’t have time to even re-read it, much less do so carefully.
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Andruw is maddening, streaky, sensational
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A few things I can say with relative certainty as we enter the next-to-last weekend of the season:
Andruw Jones is the streakiest “good” hitter in the majors, and by good I mean a guy who consistently drives in 100 or more runs (lately, a lot more) and hits 30 or more homers. His flailing, off-balance approach leaves fans (and coaches) shaking their heads in frustration at times, but then he delivers a three-run homer and all’s forgiven again, for a while….
Running three miles at an 8-minute pace in Denver is harder _ much harder _ than running four at a 7:30 pace in Atlanta or any other place near sea level. After doing that today, I can’t imagine what NBA teams must go through running up and down the court all night when they come here to play the Nuggets. And can’t imagine why the Nuggets have stunk for so many of their years of existence….
Jones is also the most consistently spectacular outfielder in baseball, even more than Ichiro or Jim Edmonds in his prime. As great as Edmonds was, everyone _ players especially _ knows he had a way of laying out for some balls that others, including Jones, would merely catch in stride at the warning track….
John Smoltz may have one of the biggest egos and overly sensitive demeanors of any highly paid professional athlete I’ve ever encountered, but he’s also absolutely, without question, the most competitive, focused, individual I’ve ever known. I only saw Michael Jordan play a few times, never covered him as a reporter, so I can’t compare Smoltz to him. But judging from all that I’ve heard about M.J., he might be the only team-sport athlete of the past, say, 15 years whose competitiveness rivals Smoltz’s. If anyone’s worthy of a lifetime contract, it’s Smoltz with the Braves….
(I must confess, I originally wrote 25 years instead of 15 years, and an astute blogger correctly pointed out that Larry Bird and Kirk Gibson fell into that time frame, and I agree that Larry Legend belongs at the top of any list of driven, competitive athletes. So I’ve cheated and switched it to 15 years after the fact, which eliminates Kirk Gibson’s World Series homer on a completely torn hamstring, and all but the last year of Larry’s incredible career. I also added “team sport” in front of “athlete,” because how could any athlete be more driven than Lance Armstrong? So there. OK, now back to the original blog.)
The Braves will compete for the NL East title next year, but the Mets will be tough again and Omar Minaya will get at least one and probably two starting pitchers this winter. Minaya has a bigger payroll and that’s not going to change with a Mets-based TV network and a stadium on the way, and the Mets aren’t going to give up that division crown without a fight, now that they’ve got it….
Chipper Jones really, really needs to seek out not just a personal trainer this winter, but an Olympic track coach or some such individual who can give him a rigorous stretching program. Then he needs to follow it, without fail.
It’s just a shame to watch such a gifted player not get the last 4-5 years out of his abilities and be a mortal lock for the Hall of Fame, which Jones would be with just another couple of high-caliber seasons. Right now, it’s still questionable if he’ll get in, though I think his numbers as a switch-hitter and all the winning teams he’s been a part of, not to mention his high profile in New York, where so many Hall voters live and work, will probably get him in even if he doesn’t have more great seasons….
I still want to see Sean Penn’s new movie, even though it’s gotten mixed reviews. He’s my favorite actor in a generation, he and Edward Norton….
The group Band of Horses, which has an unfortunately precious and silly sounding name, is one of the best new rock bands in five years or so. And I wish I was staying an extra couple of days in Denver so I could see them Tuesday….
Black Keys is THE best new rock and or blues/rock bands of the past five years, and White Stripes pale in comparison. Absolutely pale….
Penelope Cruz could act in a one-hour instructional show on housepainting, and I would line up to watch it. She’s beyond gorgeous….
Kyle Davies’ start tomorrow at Coors Field is a bit scary to think about….
There’s nothing quite like the sun rising on a brisk morning in the mountains to get you going. That and a pot of great coffee.
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Wick’s signed, but that’s only first step
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Coming to you live from chilly Colorado, where fans out here are concerned with how badly their Buffaloes will get thrashed Saturday by the ‘Dawgs in Athens, and more importantly, if their massive beast mascot _ Ralphie the buffalo, not Uga _ will return safely from the trip without harassment or misadventure.
Went to sleep with my Denver hotel-room window open, woke this morning with temps in the mid-40s and rain. It’s warmed some since, but temps are going to be in the 50s with intermittent rain possible tonight, and colder for the weekend.
OK, to matters of concern in Braves Nation: Big Wick is signed, so now what?
As first moves go, re-signing Bob Wickman was the best first move John Schuerholz could have done to restore faith and optimism among the Braves and their fans for next season. And quite surprising, given J.S.’s way of doing things and rarely deviating from his policy of not negotiating contracts during the season, etc.
Just goes to show age hasn’t diminished his mental capacity _ Schuerholz, not Wickman _ and that the GM knew the Braves simply couldn’t afford to miss out on a closer again and have the failure haunt them the entire 2007 season, the way it has this year (their 20 blown saves in 40 chances before Wickman’s arrival were as big a reason for the sub-.500 season as any).
Wickman is re-signed, but the building process has just begun. Because if you’re going to have a top-flight closer, you need to have a proven setup man or two to get the lead to him.
As surprising as Chad Paronto has been, the Braves need to get another proven guy to help shorten games to seven innings, someone of the caliber of Danys Baez, though personally I’d prefer a bit more consistency even if the tradeoff was a bit less stuff. He might be too expensive for the role anyway, especially if some team decides he could be their closer, which he’d probably prefer.
Then there’s the rotation. Seemingly an overabundance of starters to choose from next year, but we all should know by now the axiom _ you can never have too much starting pitching. This year was a classic example, because when Jorge Sosa fell on his face and John Thomson got hurt _ once, twice, how many times? _ and Horacio Ramirez and Kyle Davies got hurt … well, where were the Braves then?
Turning to relievers Lance Cormier and Oscar Villarreal to start key games while the Braves desperately tried to remain in the wild-card race, that’s where they were. And while both have surpassed most expectations as starters, the fact remains that neither was the ideal solution.
The Braves need to bring in another starter, as I’ve said before, now more than ever. Because with Smoltz at 39, Hampton coming back from elbow and knee surgeries and more than a one-year absence, and Davies still trying to establish himself, the Braves’ rotation is far from being a sure strength for 2007.
Chuck James has passed the test in my eyes and proven he’s no fluke. He’ll be solid and win 15 or more games next season.
But Tim Hudson, the man we all assumed would be a co-ace with Smoltz and take over the No. 1 role by now, simply hasn’t lived up to billing.
He’s not been nearly as woeful as some suggest, but he sure hasn’t been the guy the Braves expected when they traded for him and gave him a four-year, $47 million extension before he’d ever thrown a pitch in a spring training game (not that they had much choice, given the March 1 deadline he gave them to get an extension done, or else he said he would’ve not negotiated during the 2005 season and would’ve tested free agency at the end of that season).
The guy who was the winningest pitcher in the AL over five seasons? He hasn’t been that guy, folks. He just hasn’t.
And the Braves have a bit of a quandary with him in that next season is the last year his contract is still relatively cheap ($6 mill). If he has another mediocre season (and double-digit losses and a ERA well over 4.00 is mediocre, any way you slice it), what team is going to be willing to trade for Hudson, who makes $13 mill in 2008 and $13 mill in 2009, with a $12 mill option for 2010 and $1 mill buyout of that option?
The Braves backloaded his contract to fit him into last year’s payroll (and this year’s payroll) and assumed they’d have a lot of young players making small salaries when his contract really kicked in and made him one of the team’s highest paid players.
But what they couldn’t have assumed is they’d need to get another ace to lead the rotation in those last two years of Hudson’s contract. At this point, with no certainty regarding Smoltz at 41 in 2008 or Hampton coming back to be an ace, there is a very real possibility that the Braves would be without a legit No. 1-caliber starter in 2008 if Hudson doesn’t rebound.
Check this stat, for those ready to defend Hudson and downplay his struggles: Hudson had 17 quality starts (six innings or more, three earned runs or fewer) in his first 26 games for the Braves through Sept. 12, 2005. He has only 14 quality starts in his 36 games since then.
He has 12 wins this season (before his Saturday start), but he also has a career-worst 11 losses and 4.83 ERA, and Hudson has failed to take advantage of the seventh-best run support in the NL (he’s received 5.7 runs per nine innings pitched, far greater than most other Braves starters).
At the risk of being accused of going to the altar of a certain other Braves starter, consider this: Smoltz has made 65 starts since returning to the rotation in 2005, and the Braves have scored two runs or fewer while he’s been in 33 of those 65 games. I’d bet that if Smoltz got as much run support as Hudson’s received this season, he’d have at least 17 wins.
We’ll get around to the Andruw Jones and Marcus Giles situations later, since we’ve got plenty of time to blog here in coming weeks about what needs to be done. But feel free, of course, to discuss whatever you please in regards to those concerns or any other. Just thought I’d weigh in a bit on the pitching staff after the surprising Wickman announcement.
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Can’t wish away RFK just yet
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
There is a reason that your regular Braves Blog writer avoids road trips to Washington when he can.
Braves players wish they could pass on coming to RFK Stadium, too.
“If I got traded here, I’d quit,” Andruw Jones vented after the Braves loss Tuesday night. “I’d give up the money. This place makes you want to not play.”
When the former Montreal Expos moved to Washington, a new stadium was supposed to be ready by 2008 at the latest. Now it looks like 2009.
That means two more seasons of coming to dingy RFK.
The main problem for the media is a press box where views of parts of the field are blocked by bars on the windows. You know something is going on out there, you just don’t know what.
For players, the complaints are more numerous. But at the top is the visiting clubhouse, which is so small that there is barely room for players to turn around.
It is bad enough during the first five months of the season, but expanded rosters make September almost unbearable. Few minor league clubhouses are this bad.
There is a decent-sized lockerroom at RFK and it is right behind the visiting dugout. But it is off-limits because it belongs to soccer’s D.C. United.
The baseball fans around Washington certainly deserve a new stadium. So do the players — the sooner the better.
The Braves finish their road season with four games at Colorado beginning Thursday. David O’Brien — or DOB to his Braves Blog fans — will be back onboard.
Nobody minds at trip to Colorado, no matter how long the season has been.
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Are Davies’ days here numbered?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
If Mike Hampton comes back as expected, the Braves could have a strong rotation next season.
Will Kyle Davies be part of it?
The 22-year-old from Stockbridge made a dramatic debut in the majors last season, but it has mostly been all downhill since.
Davies had not pitched well before tearing his groin in May and his first three starts after returning in September were extremely disappointing.
The right-hander bounced back with a solid five innings Monday night in beating Washington and should get two more starts before the end of the season to make a favorable impression.
Davies would give the Braves six potential starters for next year, joining John Smoltz, Hampton, Tim Hudson, Chuck James and Horacio Ramirez.
Will someone be traded?
General manager John Schuerholz will certainly explore all his options.
Hudson could be put on the market, but the demand is uncertain. He hasn’t pitched nearly as well as he did in Oakland and his back-loaded contract will soon balloon.
The Braves want Davies to be more aggressive and command his fastball better. Against the Nationals, he did just that, keeping the ball down in the strike zone.
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Respect Smoltz’s authority, stats
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
John Smoltz apparently reads the Braves Blog and last week he didn’t like what appeared.
The Florida Marlins paid the price for his outrage.
Smoltz was upset that his three-game losing streak was mentioned along side his age and responded with a vengeful performance.
All great competitors like extra incentive and Smoltz had it in outdueling Florida rookie sensation Anibel Sanchez for a 2-1 victory Saturday night.
Smoltz is a future Hall of Famer because he is at his best in the biggest games, as his postseason record shows. This wasn’t a pivotal game for the out-of-the-race Braves, but it obviously was for Smoltz.
He didn’t want to lose four consecutive games as a starter for the first time since 1994. He didn’t want anyone thinking that 39 wasn’t still the prime of a great pitcher’s life.
Smoltz may be thin-skinned at times, but there is nothing wrong with that. It just gets his competitive juices - already overflowing - going even more.
Smoltz is right in thinking that he has had an outstanding season in a very frustrating year for the Braves. Before the recent blip, he was a Cy Young Award candidate and maybe the National League’s hottest starter.
The Braves - or any team - would be better off full of players’ with Smoltz’s fire. The Braves Blog didn’t rekindle it last week, it just turned it up a little hotter.
Smoltz is a bargain for the Braves with an $8 million option for next season and hopefully will pitch more years than that in Atlanta.
No player contributed more to the Braves’ streak of 14 straight consecutive division titles than Smoltz and seeing the run end has been difficult for the pitcher.
Respect his ultra-competitiveness. And don’t make him mad.
James shines in dance band on Titanic
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A few developments have prevented the final weeks of the Braves’ season from becoming nothing more than an agonizing exercise _ the steadiness of clutch-hitting 22-year-old Brian McCann, the realized talent of Adam LaRoche, the door-slamming effectiveness of Bob Wickman, who makes us wonder what might have been if the Braves had bucked up and acquired a closer last winter.
But has anything been more encouraging than the emergence of Chuck James?
He’s been the surprisingly good little tuba player in the dance band on the Titanic. And that’s a ragtag band has only had one other solid performer, John Smoltz.
(An aside _ I don’t really view these Braves as the Titanic in the long term, just this season, the ship going down metaphor for the end of the divisional reign. In the long term, they’ve got some work to do, but the foundation is in place, with plenty of young players and enough productive veterans to help steer a couple more years until turning the wheel over to the kids.)
An undersized lefty from Mableton, with a thick drawl and charismatic smile, James has proven that his dominant performance at every level in the minors can indeed translate to the majors, despite his 88 mph fastball and less-than-imposing stature (we harp on this because he’s about 5-10 and 175).
Scrappy kid can simply pitch. He’s 10-3 with a 3.33 ERA in 22 games (15 starts), all the decisions coming as a starter since he returned from Richmond and was inserted in the rotation on June 25. Suffice to say, he’ll at least have a rotation spot to lose entering spring training. At least.
He leads major league rookies in wins since June 25. And his toughness has manifested itself in several ways.
After getting rocked a few times while going 2-3 with an 8.14 ERA in five starts July 5 to Aug. 4, James learned his lessons, figured out the importance of keeping the ball down _ though still need to that more consistently _ and of not trying so hard to make perfect pitches. He’s learned just to trust his stuff and his defense.
Since allowing eight homers and a .309 opponents’ average in 24-1/3 innings during that skid, he’s gone 6-0 with a 1.70 ERA in his past eight starts, with a .212 opponents average and only three homers in 53 innings.
When Bobby Cox starts comparing a rookie to Tom Glavine _ he said last night they have “exactly” the same deception in their deliveries, which keeps hitters off-balance and guessing _ then you know that kid has impressed the old skipper. And impressing Cox is a very good thing to do in this organization.
Like Glavine long ago, his changeup makes him more effective against righties than lefties _ James’ .211 opponents’ average by right-handers is ninth-best among NL qualifiers.
And like Glavine, he doesn’t wilt. Pressure doesn’t faze this country kid, who worked out of a one-out, bases-loaded jam last night vs. Philly. He’s got a .215 opponents’ average with runners on base, seventh-best among NL starters.
All that said, don’t expect him to win the NL Rookie of the Year award. If he’d been in the rotation all season, perhaps. But he got too late a start, I’m sure.
Even if he reels off four more wins, it’s probably too late for him to overcome the rookie brigade of the Marlins, including All-Star second baseman Dan Uggla, who’s batting .292 with 24 homers and 85 RBIs, and a bevy of starting pitchers. How can Uggla not win it? (or maybe I’m missing someone; I haven’t looked closely, because I’m not voting).
They have Anibal Sanchez, who just threw a no-hitter and is 8-2 with a 2.40 ERA in 14 starts, including 7-2 since the All-Star break. And Josh Johnson, who’s 11-5 with a 3.03 ERA. And Scott Olsen, who’s 12-8 with a 3.98 ERA.
And there’s San Francisco rookie Matt Cain, who is 13-9 with a 3.75 ERA in 29 games (28 starts), with 163 strikeouts in 172 innings. Cain is 7-3 with a 2.21 ERA and .182 opponents’ average in 12 starts since the All-Star break. Again, I’m sure there are others, but those come to mind immediately.
But whether James finishes in the top 3, the top 5, or wherever, the important thing is he’s given the Braves plenty of reason to believe he can be an integral part of the rotation for years to come, and a second left-hander to go with Mike Hampton next year in case the team decides to cut bait and deal Horacio Ramirez, which I think they’ll do.
With John Thomson leaving as free agent and Ramirez possibly traded, and barring a surprise trade of Tim Hudson, the rotation will include Smoltz, Hudson, Hampton and James, the way I figure. And as I’ve stated many times, I think the Braves must and will try to bring in a proven veteran guy, a mid-priced starter who can be counted on for 30 starts and 200 innings.
Unless they believe Lance Cormier or Oscar Villarreal can be that guy, which, to me, would be a bit of a reach given the small samples of work by each in the starting role.
They can’t afford to have another season of piecing the rotation together all year. Need proven depth. Davies, Lerew, etc, can fight it out this spring and try to impress enough to challenge for the fifth spot. But if I’m the Braves, I can’t honestly look at what they’ve done so far and go into next season with either of them projected to be in the rotation. Or maybe I’m being too hard on Davies so early, considering his injury?
Your thoughts?
Remember when Braves starting pitchers ruled?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Since I was away when the divisional reign ended, I’ll take a moment of silence for the passing of a Braves era.
OK, done.
Now, we know the no-closer bullpen’s woeful work for two-thirds of the season undermined any chance whatsoever the Braves ever had of staying with the powerful Mets this season. But let’s take a moment to consider this rotation.
Oh, wait, first, I noticed some debate in yesterday’s blog about LaRoche’s production. Actually it was just one obvious LaRoche-hater attempting to discredit his season this year, and a bunch of others making strong points to counter that puzzling premise.
But here’s one for you. Putting aside the torrid stretch he’s had since late June, let’s look at his overall career thus far: LaRoche has a .278 average with 91 doubles, 64 homers, 212 RBIs, 273 strikeouts and an .855 OPS in 1,213 at-bats.
I went back to find the two most accomplished current Braves, a pair of potential Hall-of-Famers, and see how their career numbers looked after a similar number of at-bats.
Chipper Jones, after 1,215 at-bats, had a .292 average with 62 doubles, 55 homers, 216 RBIs, 203 strikeouts and an .869 OPS.
Andruw Jones, after 1,213 at-bats, had a .255 average with 62 doubles, 60 homers, 200 RBIs, 292 strikeouts and a .790 OPS.
Again, LaRoche: 1,213 at-bats, .278 average with 91 doubles, 64 homers, 212 RBIs, 273 strikeouts and an .855 OPS.
Discuss among yourselves.
OK, back to the starting rotation:
Between injuries (John Thomson, Horacio Ramirez, Kyle Davies and Mike Hampton, if you want to count him) and underperforming (Jorge Sosa, Thomson, Davies if you want to throw him in like I do, and, oh yes, Tim Hudson take a step forward) this has been the worst overall rotation the Braves have fielded since before the run began.
Perhaps that’s obvious to most, by now. But I did a bit of quick research after noticing the Braves’ 4.76 starters’ ERA (tied with Milwaukee for 10th in the NL) and especially their 45-55 record.
Granted, the aforementioned bullpen, with the notable exception of late addition Bob Wickman, has contributed mightily to the 10-below-.500 starters’ record. Nevertheless, it’s an unsightly number, and got me thinking … when’s the last time the Braves’ starters had a losing record?
It probably won’t shock most of you that it was 1990, the last year they didn’t win a division title. They finished last in the NL West that season, and Braves starters were 48-69 with a 4.39 ERA (next-to-last in the NL).
Care to take a stab at guessing the Braves’ winningest starter that year?
That’d be John Smoltz, who went 14-11 with a 3.85 ERA in 231-1/3 innings. Next-most wins in that rotation was Tom Glavine (10-12, 4.28), then Charlie Liebrandt (9-11, 3.16) and no one else with more than five wins. Steve Avery was 3-10 with a 5.47 ERA in 20 starts (see, there’s hope for Kyle Davies, folks).
This year’s rotation is led statistically by Smoltz (12-9, 3.86 in 203 innings) and Chuck James (9-3, 3.74 in 14 starts). I say Chuck instead of Hudson because the rookie’s numbers are clearly more impressive than Hudson’s 12-11, 4.95 ERA, with only 129 strikeouts in 200 innings while allowing 219 hits and 72 walks. Yikes.
Ramirez (5-5) is the only other one who’s won more than two games as a starter for the Braves this season, if you can believe that. That’s just remarkably bad, for a team built on starting pitching for so long.
There is hope, obviously. Hampton, though hardly a sure thing given his litany of injuries and surgeries, has progressed well in rehab and should be completely ready for a full workload at spring training.
James looks like a keeper, a solid middle-rotation guy who can win you 15-18 games for a long time. Cormier and/or Villarreal look better suited to starting than relieving, and at least one of them (I’d guess Cormier) could be a solid back-of-rotation guy next season.
Hudson surely won’t be any worse next season, and could have a rebound in his third NL season, couldn’t he? No? Maybe?
Davies should get better (he can’t get much worse than he’s looked lately), like the vast majority of talented young starters do after early struggles. Not saying I’m sold on him as a future ace, like the Braves say they are, but he could be. He has the talent if he can get his head and mechanics and everything else straightened out.
But at the end of the day, I just think the Braves have to look hard to pick up another proven veteran starter this winter, not a huge-salaried guy or even a 15-game winner, but a guy they can count on to make 35 starts and pitch 200 or so innings.
They simply can’t piece together a rotation all season the way they did this year and expect to compete for the division title. Better, far better, to have a surplus of starters entering the season than be scrounging to convert relievers to starters at midseason after a spate of injuries.
There’s obviously a list of other things the Braves need to do this winter, and we’ll get into all of them in the coming weeks, trust me. You can talk about any of them you want here, of course. I just wanted to focus on the starters, after seeing those stats.
Oh, almost forget, here’s the starters’ records and ERA since that 48-69, 4.39 ERA in 1990 and this year’s 45-55, 4.76 ERA:
1991: 72-49 (3.46 ERA); 1992: 72-42 (2.95); 1993: 79-42 (3.13); 1994: 52-33 (3.28); 1995: 62-38 (3.25); 1996: 70-48 (3.45); 1997: 75-37 (3.05); 1998: 90-40 (3.06) — NINETY-AND-FORTY!; 1999: 70-45 (3.67); 2000: 76-49 (4.06); 2001: 64-51 (3.54); 2002: 71-45 (3.42); 2003: 74-39 (4.16); 2004: 68-49 (3.84); 2005: 65-43 (3.65).
Wow. Talk about decline. Compare this year’s numbers to all those seasons, when Atlanta starters were at least 13 games over .500 every season and usually 22-30 games over .500, including the otherwordly 90-40 record in 1998.
On an entirely different note, anybody see the Flaming Lips last night at Tabernacle? I didn’t go, but heard the sold-out show was outstanding. Two days until REM and Greg Allman get inducted into the Georgia Music Hall of Fame, and I’m looking forward to seeing those dudes jam (they’re all going to play at the ceremony, at least three songs apiece).
In a woeful season, LaRoche shines
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Braves reign of division titles officially ended at 14 when the NL East-leading New York Mets rallied to beat Florida 6-4.
Few really took note, however. After two long rain delays, the game in Florida didn’t end until early Wednesday morning.
The Braves were eliminated almost as early as in 1990, the year before their winning began. That woeful team lost its mathematical chance of catching Cincinnati in the NL West on Sept. 11.
Actually, all hope of catching the Mets this year ended in June. By then the damage was done.
Now, any hope of making a very late wild-card push has all but ended. There are just too many teams ahead of the Braves.
Adam LaRoche has been a symbol at times of the Braves’ struggles this year. But despite his occasional brain cramps, the first baseman has been one of the bright spots for the team.
The Braves couldn’t even be hoping for a wild-card run without LaRoche’s second-half hitting tear.
LaRoche, who hopes to play in at least one game of Wednesday’s doubleheader with Philadelphia despite his sore hamstring, has lifted his batting average 45 points - from .251 to .296 - since the All-Star break.
In 50 games, LaRoche is hitting .365 with 17 homers and 46 RBIs. He is third in the NL since the break in all three categories and is second only to the Phillies’ Ryan Howard in slugging percentage.
LaRoche’s 30 homers are the third most for an Atlanta first baseman. Andres Galarraga hit 44 in 1998 and Fred McGriff had 34 in 1994.
Give LaRoche some credit. He is one Brave who has had a better season this year than last.
Age creeping up on Smoltz
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
John Smoltz may remain the best athlete on the Braves and he hasn’t been out of shape a day in his life.
But he’s still 39 years old.
At that age, things are bound to happen. Smoltz’s groin problems are proof of that.
The Braves ace says he hopes to start as scheduled Saturday against Florida. But the damage is already done.
Smoltz has lost his past three starts, all games the Braves badly needed to win if they were going to have a chance at the wild card.
Monday night against the lowly Chicago Cubs, Smoltz left in the third inning after giving up his second three-run homer. He had obviously been in pain since several pitches earlier.
Until his past three starts, Smoltz was a candidate for the National League Cy Young Award. Now, his record is just 12-9 and his ERA has jumped to 3.86.
Smoltz’s three-game losing streak has come since he voiced his displeasure at not having his $8 million option for next season already picked up.
The Braves definitely need to bring Smoltz back for 2007 and that may not be his last season.
But age eventually catches up with everyone.
The Ryan Howard quandary
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
With increased steroid testing and the declining health of Barry Bonds, few of us imagined we’d see a Bonds-ian caliber season from a hitter anytime soon.
But what Ryan Howard is doing comes a lot closer than could ever have been anticipated _ and, in case anyone’s wondering, there’s been absolutely no reason to suspect he’s using HGH, for which there is no test. He’s just a big dude, always has been, but with normal proportions.
He doesn’t have the Popeye arms, size-8 head, zits, hair loss or freakish shoulders or triceps we’ve seen on so many others suspected of ‘roid and HGH use.
The fact that Howard, who comes to town Tuesday with the Phillies for another make-or-break series for the Braves, is doing what he’s doing in his first full season is astounding and just about off the charts.
The softspoken, big stick-wielding kid — if 26 can be considered a kid — is batting .316 with 56 homers, 138 RBIs and a .413 on-base percentage. The batting average and OBP are particularly impressive given that he’s struck out 156 times in 519 at-bats (in that regard, he can’t compare with the best seasons of Bonds and Pujols, as disciplined and difficult to strike out as any power hitters in recent vintage).
Lately, Howard has been on an utterly Ruth-ian run (nevermind Bonds). He’s batting .528 (28-for-53) with 12 homers and 24 RBIs in his past 16 games, and .374 with 28 homers and 67 RBIs in 56 games since the break.
And don’t even start in saying the bandbox stadium in Philly being the main factor for his explosion — Howard is hitting for a higher average (.327 to .305) with exactly the same number of homers (28) on the road as at home, and in four fewer games. In his past 30 road games, he’s hit .383 with 17 homers, 44 RBIs and a .493 OBP.
Explain that.
He has a very good chance of going from NL Rookie of the Year in 2005 to MVP in 2006. The more writers (voters) I talk to, the more who are leaning toward him in recent weeks.
How ‘bout this one: In 247 career games and 870 at-bats, Howard has a .305 average with 80 — EIGHTY! — home runs, 206 RBIs and a .390 OBP despite 269 strikeouts. In close-and-late situations, he has a .300 career average (45-for-150) with 16 homers and a .432 OBP.
His career on base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) is 1.026. Bonds has a 1.051 career OPS and Pujols has a 1.045. Again, this is the end of Howard’s first full season in the majors.
The question: Should the Braves pitch to him, or pitch around him and take their chances with other Phillies hitters, including the skidding Pat Burrell?
Bobby Cox has been known to pitch to the likes of Bonds and Howard more than most managers. Others have begun to walk Howard in unorthodox situations, showing him the ultimate respect that Bonds commanded.
Should the Braves, who could be 4-1/2 games behind wild-card leader San Diego if they get a strong start from Smoltz tonight and complete a sweep of the Cubs, concede that Howard is too tough for the likes of Kyle Davies (not to mention Tim Hudson, who goes in Game 2) to face?
Hudson tried pitching to him last week, and results were, well, not good. Three homers in one game off Hudson, you may recall. During the 2005-06 seasons, Howard has hit .429 with 10 homers and 25 RBIs in 23 games vs. Atlanta.
Might be time to wave the white flag to the big man and take your chances with anybody and everybody else in the Phillies’ lineup.
No closer was big mistake, letting Furcal ($13 mill per year) go was not
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Hey, the BLOG’s ON FIRE!
Ok, got your attention. Nothing like yelling fire in a crowded (or uncrowded, as it were) blog to wake the folks.
In the interest of resuscitating the snoozing weekend edition of Braves and the Man In Black blog, I’m filing one DURING THE GAME _ so don’t say I never did anything for you cretins (I’m kidding).
Anyway, Braves appear to have gotten the royal one on that first-inning appeal call. Or did you guys not see it the way I did, that Aybar’s foot appeared to touch third base as he went past on the way to scoring on the LaRoche triple?
Wow, usually those things have to be fairly definitive for a reversal like that.
Anyway, now, of course, Murton has just homered to give the Cubs a 1-0 lead, after that Braves run was taken off the board.
But that’s not what I wanted to blog about. Just wanted to offer a couple of opinions regarding two posts I saw on the other blog earlier today. Forgive me if they’ve been discussed further since then, but I didn’t have time to check back in.
The posts in question were critical of Schuerholz for several moves including not retaining Furcal. Now, I agree wholeheartedly that the Braves GM messed up in a very big way last winter by not getting a closer, even if it meant overpaying for one. They should’ve overpaid, if that’s what it took.
That, ultimately, is what’s going to keep them out of the postseason (they would’ve won the wild card with a good closer all season).
But Furcal? Really, you think they should have paid the $13 mill a year that the Dodgers overspent for him, which everyone in baseball _ or virtually everyone _ said was too much, and which blew away all other offers from the Braves and Cubs for the shortstop?
The Dodgers are paying Furcal $13 mill a year for three seasons, and the Braves are paying Edgar Renteria $6 mill a year for three seasons (Red Sox paying the rest).
Entering today’s games, Furcal was batting .293 with 29 doubles, 10 homers, 54 RBIs, 33 stolen bases and a .363 OBP. Renteria was batting .295 with 33 doubles, 12 homers, 58 RBIs, 15 stolen bases and a .367 OBP.
Furcal had third second-most errors (23) and fourth-worst fielding percentage by an NL shortstop. Renteria had 11 errors and was tied for the fifth-best fielding percentage by an NL shortstop.
So, Furcal is making $13 mill, Renteria is making $6 mill, but the Braves would be better off paying the extra cash to Furcal?
Now, I can hear the argument that Furcal would’ve been better because he’s a leadoff guy. But that’s not reason to pay him more than twice as much. Because really, couldn’t the Braves have reasonably expected Giles to perform decently in the leadoff spot?
Giles has shown in the past couple of months that’s he’s more than capable of hitting leadoff. He just got off to a bad start, whether because of injuries, distractions for serious family matters in the spring, the pressure he put on himself to get on base more, or some combination of all of the above.
But again, since June 4 he’s hit .294 with nine homers, 33 RBIs and a .358 OBP in 69 games. And in 32 games since July 27, Giles was hitting .344 with 18 RBIs, 20 runs and a .383 OBP. Clearly, he can fill the role just fine when he’s on top of his game. He should’ve been able to do it for one season, at least.
You don’t pay an extra $7 mill PER YEAR for a shortstop because Giles prefers hitting second and because Furcal steals 25 more bases.
The Braves have done enough wrong in the past year regarding personnel decisions _ no closer last winter, and dependence upon youngsters at too many crucial spots. When you start citing Furcal as a screwup _ a player that everyone agreed was vastly overpaid by the Dodgers because they needed to make a splash after losing out on Brian Giles _ then it hurts your credibility and undermines your other assertions, some of which were right on target.
Couple other things:
Braves are up to fifth in home runs from first basemen with 31, behind Philly (Ryan Howard), St. Louis (Pujols), Mets (Delgado) and Astros (Berkman). They’re fourth in slugging from 1B, ahead of the Mets and behind those other three….
Wilson Betemit, for those who might have lost track after his trade to the Dodgers: Since his 10-for-20, two-homer, 10-RBI burst in four games for the Braves July 15-18 at San Diego and St. Louis, Betemit was batting .245 (34-for-139) in his past 41 games through Friday, with seven doubles, nine homers, 18 RBIs, 11 walks, 42 strikeouts, and a .298 on-base percentage….
I asked Schuerholz again today about payroll for next season, and he said they’re operating under assumption that it will be the same next season. He wouldn’t bite on questions about Andruw and others.
I also asked him about the money saved when Chipper redid his deal last winter, and Schuerholz said that basically all of it will have been spent by the end of the season, and any that’s not would not be “carried over” to next season. Hey, all I can go by is what he says, since they’re not going to open books, etc.
Also asked him about Hampton’s insurance this season, how much of his salary was covered, and couldn’t get him to say anything other than the 50-percent figure most often used is “fairly close” but not accurate entirely. Wouldn’t tell me if it was higher or lower.
ON AN ENTIRELY DIFFERENT NOTE: Not to rub it in, but I scored two tix to the REM Georgia Music Hall of Fame induction shindig next weekend at the World Congress Center. For those who haven’t heard, Bill Berry is going to join the band for a three-song set (or more, I’d imagine, if response is overwhelming), the only time the full REM lineup has played together since Berry retired, other than the surprise gig they did for their friend’s wedding at an Athens bowling alley. For hardcore REM fans, this is the big one.
Making it even better is the fact that Gregg Allman is also being inducted and will also play a brief set during the show. Outstanding.
OK, as I wrote that, LaRoche just hit another homer. So now the Braves 1B would be even with Astros. The dude is having a pretty stunning season.
Andruw, on the other hand? Glad you asked: Before tonight he was hitting .196 with eight homers and 19 RBIs in his past 41 games, and .152 _ yes, .152 _ with three homers and six RBIs in his past 20 games. He had 15 walks in the latter stretch, giving him a higher OBP (.356) than slugging percentage (.318) over 20 games.
Can you believe Andruw Jones has a higher OBP than slugging percentage over 20 games?
Oh, as I wrote that, McCann just homered. Braves up 4-2.
Previewing the off-season
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It will be a busy offseason for general manager John Schuerholz as he tries to make the Braves a playoff team again.
Where will he start?
After picking up John Smoltz’s option, the GM’s next move should be re-signing closer Bob Wickman.
Is Wickman a sure thing to duplicate his recent success with the Braves next season? No.
But Wickman still remains the best option for the Braves if he is willing to sign for something near the $5 million he made this season.
Schuerholz went after numerous closers, including Wickman, last offseason and came up empty as salaries skyrocketed.
Everyone knows the results. After 14 straight division titles, the Braves have a losing record.
The bullpen wasn’t the only Braves problem, but it started the slide. The team has to go into next season with a proven closer.
If Wickman is re-signed quickly, the Braves can go about filling their other needs by free agency and trades.
Marcus Giles has trade value, so is likely to be dealt. If is value hasn’t fallen too much, Tim Hudson also remains a trading chip.
The Braves can’t afford to let Andruw Jones walk as a free agent after next season. But they may also not be able to afford to re-sign him.
Trading the Gold Glove center fielder may be difficult, however. He has veto power over any deal.
The offseason will be longer for the Braves this year without a playoff berth. Schuerholz needs to use every day of it to restock his team.
Better luck on injuries and added experience for the young players isn’t enough in itself to make the Braves winners again in 2007.
Braves swept … now, getting back to Johnny Cash and BBQ
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Going to break from format a bit today _ not that we have a rigid format here _ just because I think a lot of the cool, engaging, witty regulars here are kind of scratching their heads and wondering about the unwelcome intrusion of Mets fans in the past few days to a blog essentially devoted to the Braves, BBQ, Sweet Tea, Pie and, of course, the Man in Black (that’s Mr. Cash, to you weak-music loving types who might not know excellence).
The guy who’ll go unnamed (you know who you are) and a few others who keep peacocking around and stating the most obvious things imaginable about the Mets (stuff you might here some drunk barely-a-fan type go on about), we all acknowledge _ at least I thnk most of us do _ the Mets are the best team in the NL. Clearly better than the Braves and the rest of the weak NL East this season. Far better.
Nevertheless _ and we’ll try to go slow here, lay this out clearly _ this is a Braves blog, posted on the website of an ATLANTA newspaper, and most folks here just want to blog about stuff other than the Mets. Nothing personal, most just don’t care about the Mets, who are farther away and much less lovable than, say, the $15 million rookie-laden Marlins.
I’m certain there’s a lot of good Mets blogs out there, right? I mean, there must be. Or _ and this is a theory a few of us were discussing in the pressbox _ do you very few wayward Mets supporters here , apparently having taken a wrong turn in the blogosphere, not feel comfortable getting into truly in-depth discussions about your team on a hardcore Mets blog?
Because seriously, we think that might be the case. Your comments here, the stuff you bring to the table about the Mets, is the kind that only the most casual _ not to mention crass _ fans would discuss, nothing of any depth, no stats, nothing about prospects, nothing about history, etc. Just shouting about how good you are. Not the kind of stuff, for instance, that I hear guys talking about in a New York deli. Real Mets fans, arguing with each other about what their team needs to do to get over the top, or arguing with Yankees fans in a relevent, two-sided debate of which team is the City’s best.
Not that most folks here want to hear that kind of in-depth Mets discussion, don’t get me wrong. They don’t want to hear it, even if you knew any of it.
But that’s the kind of discourse _ stuff about prospects, payroll decisions, offensive philosophies, OPS and average w/RISP, etc _ that we get into a lot of times here regarding the Braves. That is, when we’re not discussing BBQ, banana pudding, sweet tea, and great artists like Haggard, Billie Holliday, Steve Earle, Lucinda Williams, Led Zep, and Skynyrd.
The type of discourse that the vast majority of fans here want to have about the Braves _ that’s the kind of stuff you could find on a Mets blog, rather than sounding like mere Mets bandwagon fans who want to do nothing but talk trash about strictly THIS SEASON and how the Mets are the best team in the league and blah blah blah.
That’s just gotten so gauche, by the standards of long-time Mets fans with perspective.
It’s all so obvious, so basic, shallow and, well, boring. Sorry, but it just is, at least to this audience.
So go to the Mets blog _ don’t be afraid, you don’t have to post a comment until you’re comfortable there _ and let some hardcore Mets fans tell you a thing or two about the team that you might not know (which, again, judging from your elemental comments about the Mets, there’s a lot to learn).
So thanks for stopping by, and for agreeing with us that the Mets are the far better team this year, and good luck in the postseason.
Now run along, and let us rubes get back to discussing the Braves and the finer points of life. Let us keep abiding. The Dude abides on this site.
Oh, and I’ll give you this: “Meet the Mets” is a pretty cool song. Cheesy, but cool.
7 Train to NL East title town
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
On 7 train, headed toward new home of NL East division championship….
Three levels down in Grand Central Terminal…. Couple of underground stops…. Now surfacing from tunnel beneath the East River…. Is this still Manhattan, or Queens? Can’t tell from map. Too bumpy. Can’t open map; too geeky….
Endless warehouses with broken windows …. “Now we’re moving on up, to the East Side,” in my head…. Peeling paint on subway platforms…. Graffiti covering satellite dishes on top of apartment buildings rung with barbed wire….
Hand-painted sign for dentist office…. Graffiti covering empty billboard frames…. So many folks still have those metal TV antennaes. Or just left on top of buildings?….
Dude on guitar sits on floor in train. Sings anti-Bush, anti-war song. “Say a prayer for the troops,” he says. Collects $3 in tips. Moves to next train car….
Remarkably detailed graffiti. How many hours? Covers entire side of building…. “Raekwon” spray-painted across entire top floor. I hear that Wu-Tang Clan ain’t nothing to f*&$ with….
“Medicina General” on metal sign of clinic, beneath subway platform…. Junction Blvd. stop …. 103rd Street-Corona Plaza…. entering heart of Mets country…. 111 Street…. There it is, on left. Ahhh, yes. Huge, ugly, blue. “Shea Stadium” in white letters, above stick figure of ballplayer (neon lit at night … 1970s)….
Shea Stadium parking lot…. Next to Auto Glass, Auto Body, Brake Repair, Transmission Repair …. Dozens and dozens of auto shops. Each has garage door covered in graffiti….
Ticket counter…. Girl in Beltran jersey. Guy in Franco jersey. John, not Julio. Guy in Yankees Jeter jersey? Whatever, amigo (as Julio F. would say)….
Show bag to security. Doesn’t look in (Atlanta security officers act like 9/11 occurred in Atlanta, while Shea and LaGuardia security shrug shoulders, relatively speaking….)
Braves clubhouse, quiet. Chipper playing cards. Few guys on couches, watching SportsCenter. One reporter….
Mets clubhouse, crowded. Dozen reporters. Julio Franco on couch, demonstrating flex pose to young teammate. Wide-screen TV… Univision news…. Glavine holding court with reporters…. Billy Wagner. Pedro. Lo Duca. Delgado. Beltran. Shawn Green….
Omar Minaya, one interview, then another. In Spanish. In English. Man has stamina….
“If they were to give a Pulitzer Prize in baseball,” Minaya says (knows his audience), “Bobby Cox and John Schuerholz and the whole Braves organization would deserve the Pulitizer Prize. They would win in a landslide…. I can’t say enough positive words about the Braves. All baseball people see them as a model for success….”
Clubhouse closing, 45 minutes to first pitch. Elevator stuck at upper deck. Take ramps. Back and forth, back and forth, to press level…. Tired. Long week…
Feels like fall. Like October. Maybe closest Braves will get to that feeling this year….
Let’s play two.
Chuck James, the improbable new ace?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
At this time a year ago, odds look pretty good that the Braves’ next homegrown ace, their next kid phenom pitcher signed and developed by the organization, would be an Atlanta-area native.
The odds still look good, but it’s at least a split on who the kid will be. Or is their someone out there who still firmly convinced Kyle Davies has a brighter future than Chuck James?
Maybe he does. Maybe Davies, who will only turn 23 on Saturday, is merely having the same type of early career struggles than Maddux and Glavine and Smoltz had, coupled with injury. Plenty, even most, stud pitchers struggle in their first couple of seasons.
But the point here isn’t to question Davies’ potential; it’s way too early to make any judgments on that. The point is that it’s time to recognize that little Chuck James, generously listed as 6 feet at 190 points in the media guide, is a damn impressive young pitcher with a bright future.
He’s two years older (will be 25 in November) than Davies, doesn’t throw as hard, doesn’t have the variety of pitches, and might not be as, uh, well, cerebral as the right-hander from Stockbridge.
But the lefty from Mableton, the one with the shaved head, heavy Southern drawl, slightly devious smile and Knothole Gang demeanor, the one who looks like he might’ve stole your bike in grade school and left it at your front door a couple days later … that dude can flat-out pitch.
Last night’s eight innings of one-hit, scoreless ball against the NL’s most potent lineup _ even without Carlos Beltran, it’s probably still the best _ was about as convincing a statement as could be made.
Pencil him into the rotation along with veterans John Smoltz, Mike Hampton and Tim Hudson for next season, and go from there. And at this stage of the game, Smoltz is probably the only one of those three whose chances of winning 15 next season I’d feel better about than James. Seriously.
James leads major league rookies in wins (eight) since June 25, when the Braves brought him back from Richmond after getting his arm stretched out to move from relief back to his forte, starting. He’s been in their rotation since then.
He’s 8-3 with a 3.65 ERA in 20 games this season, including a 3.84 ERA in 13 starts. And he’s getting better and better with experience.
He’s 4-0 with a 1.85 ERA and .213 opponents’ average in his past six starts, allowing two earned runs or fewer in each and working six innings or more in five of those six games.
And the way that he’s performed on the road is even more impressive, especially in places like the cauldron that Shea Stadium was last night. The Flushing faithful were geeked up to welcome their first-place team back from the road, and James quieted them as the night wore on.
He’s 5-1 with a 2.75 ERA in six road starts, and his 2.25 road ERA for the season would lead the NL by a quarter of a run if he had enough innings to qualify.
In his past three road starts, the kid is 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA, with only one homer allowed in 21 innings. The homers were what gave him trouble earlier in the season, but he’s keeping the ball down enoughto keep it in the park, while also keeping hitters off-balance better and getting ahead in counts.
He only throws about 87-88 mph with his fastball most of the time, but he can get a bit more on it when he needs to. He doesn’t need to often, because of a deceptive delivery and the change-up that keeps hitters guessing.
His changeup makes him more effective against righty hitters than against lefties, which is unusual, but the same as Glavine for most of his career. James’ .215 opponents’ average against right-handers is the ninth-best in the NL, just ahead of another former Brave, Jason Schmidt.
Anyway, he’s been one of the few real bright spots for the Braves, and watching James in the second half has provided some hope for a return to something approaching the Braves’ great pitching standards of the past.
If Davies develops into the pitcher they project, the Braves could have two homegrown aces atop their roation in a couple or three years. But for now, one of them is ahead of projections and helping to ease some worries about next year’s rotation. That one is James.
The Braves are stuck with Hampton because of his enormous contract, and fortunately for them, he’s working his butt off in an effort to get back to being the elite pitcher he once was. People forget, he was the Braves’ best pitcher for quite a stretch before his string of assorted injuries leading up to the elbow and knee surgeries of last winter.
As for Hudson, the Braves have to keep believing _ praying? _ he’ll get back to being the ace they thought they were getting when they traded for him from Oakland and then gave him a four-year, $47 million contract extension at spring training 2005, before he’d thrown his first pitch for them.
As I stated late in the chain of posts on the last blog, sometimes we all look for places to put blame when someone or something fails to meet our expectations. In Hudson’s case, the guy has simply underperformed for most of two seasons. It’s not the Braves’ fault. Not Leo Mazzone’s fault last year or Roger McDowell’s this season.
And while his last season in Oakland was one of his worst, and his strikeouts-to-walks ratio had declined before the trade, NO ONE in baseball circles had anything but high marks and congrats for the Braves when they made that trade. No one. I was at the winter meetings at Anaheim when the deal was being put together, and I heard all the buzz from all the other teams trying to get him.
Hudson, who would’ve been a free agent after his first season with the Braves in 2005, set a deadline of signing an extension by March 1 that season, and said he wouldn’t negotiate during the season if it didn’t get done.
So if he’d had one of his typical Oakland seasons, the Braves wouldn’t have stood much chance of signing him when the Yankees or another team offered the going rate of more than $15 mill per. The Braves had to sign him by March 1, 2005 or hope he didn’t have a great season and other teams would back off.
They signed him, then he didn’t have a great season.
And he’s not having a great one this season, again.
If you remember the reaction when he signed the extension with the Braves, many national media members questioned Hudson’s decision, some expressing disbelief, as if he were crazy or irresponsible to take so much BELOW market value and leave so much potential money on the table by signing with the Braves for under $12 mill per season in average value.
I didn’t buy that point at all, because to me he was still setting himself up for life and getting long-term security of a four-year deal _ when Braves were way reluctant to go more than three _ and he was getting chance to move back to what is home for him and his wife, where they could build a home in Auburn and raise their kids there, and not watch dad go off to another city during the season. That’s worth a lot.
But again, there was NO ONE out there, fans or media members or fellow Braves, who criticized the team for giving him that extension until last season, when many of you, and me, rightfully pointed out that Braves were really going to look bad if Hudson continued to pitch like he was pitching last year when he was at his worst, before going on DL.
He’s pitched pretty poorly a lot of nights again this year. So it looks bad now. And will for several years, if he doesn’t snap out of it and they keep him.
But the Braves and other teams don’t have that luxury of hindsight when making moves. And only the Yankees and a couple others are willing to swallow huge chunks of contracts and move a guy after one or two bad seasons (see Boston, re: Edgar Renteria).
Braves thought they were getting a staff ace in Hudson for below-market value, a guy who’d led AL in wins over a five-year span.
Hey, but at least they’ve got Chuck James, and he’s really cheap for a couple more years.
OK, real quick MUSIC NOTE (just move on to the blog-posting portion if you don’t like good music): Someone asked about the Flatlanders. They put out their long-awaited second album (only 14 years between discs!) in 2004, “Wheels of Fortune,” which is very strong.
And if you like them or the song you heard somewhere, you should also try the latest from Jimmie Dale Gilmore and John Prine, both released in the past year. And though he’s not a Flatlander, check into that Todd Snider CD I recommended a couple weeks ago, that just came out. What a great songwriter.
Oh, and I lost some respect for my may Peter Moylan when I asked the Aussie reliever if he liked Nick Cave, his countryman and one of my favorite brooding, intelligent rockers. Moylan can’t stand him. Now, I can’t stand Moylan (kidding, of course; Moylan’s a great dude, just doesn’t have great taste in music).
Going to be a looong couple days at the ‘yard
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Help! Worst fears are starting to be realized with that annoying Ernesto having wiped out tonight’s series opener between the Braves and Phillies.
Because now, we’re looking at the distinct possibility of playing doubleheaders both Saturday and Sunday at Citizens Bank Park. Fortunately, there’s plenty of TVs here in the pressbox to watch college football between likely rain delays.
Nothing like spending a nasty, gray, 14-hour day in a Philadelphia pressbox with ink-stained wretches from the City of Brotherly Cheesesteaks.
There already was a scheduled DH Saturday, as most of you know, a makeup of an earlier rainout. Now, they’re going to try to compress this four-game series into two days. And that just ain’t right. Man is not meant to sit through two doubleheaders in two days, and write state-edition deadline game stories after the opener of said doubleheaders, then combined two-game stories after the nightcaps.
The Phillies want to get three gates out of four games _ like every other team would, sad to say; money rules such decisions _ it means one of the doubleheaders must be a split (separate admission for each game) doubleheader.
In other words, they’re not going to sacrifice two games which is what would happen if they played old-school straight doubleheaders both days, charging one admission for each pair of games.
Officially, they’re going to try for a split DH at 1 p.m and 7 p.m. Saturday, in which case they could then play a straight DH starting at 1 p.m. Sunday.
But if weather’s as bad as forecast calls for Saturday morning, the Phillies can only hope it’s out by early afternoon and then they could play a straight DH tomorrow beginning probably around 5 p.m.
In that scenario, the teams would then have to play a split DH Sunday, again at 1 p.m. and 7 p.m.
Here’s the pertinent pitching info: Villarreal and Davies, in that order, are scheduled to start Saturday against Phillies’ Jon Lieber (6-9, 5.09) and RHP Scott Mathieson (1-4, 7.23).
Sunday, Braves plan to start Hudson and Cormier, in that order, against LHP Jamie Moyer (7-13, 4.50) and someone to be named tomorrow.
This is all by-the-seat-of-their-pants to a certain degree, because everything hinges on weather. If they only get three games in, Braves would come back here to play Sept. 25 on an off day after series in Colorado.
The Braves obviously don’t want to do that, and they’re in luck because MLB always wants teams to try to get games in as soon as possible _ simply because you never know what’ll happen between now and Sept. 25.
If either or both team has another rainout, they might need that date to make it up.
Long story short: We’re gonna be out here a LONG time Saturday and Sunday.
Oh, and Daryle Ward wasn’t here this afternoon, but his new unis arrived, and they’re almost as big as Wickman. “He’s a big boy,” Brian Jordan said of one-time Dodgers teammate Ward, who was stuck in traffic somewhere between here and D.C. in the storm this afternoon.
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