AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2006 > September > 21
Thursday, September 21, 2006
Wick’s signed, but that’s only first step
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Coming to you live from chilly Colorado, where fans out here are concerned with how badly their Buffaloes will get thrashed Saturday by the ‘Dawgs in Athens, and more importantly, if their massive beast mascot _ Ralphie the buffalo, not Uga _ will return safely from the trip without harassment or misadventure.
Went to sleep with my Denver hotel-room window open, woke this morning with temps in the mid-40s and rain. It’s warmed some since, but temps are going to be in the 50s with intermittent rain possible tonight, and colder for the weekend.
OK, to matters of concern in Braves Nation: Big Wick is signed, so now what?
As first moves go, re-signing Bob Wickman was the best first move John Schuerholz could have done to restore faith and optimism among the Braves and their fans for next season. And quite surprising, given J.S.’s way of doing things and rarely deviating from his policy of not negotiating contracts during the season, etc.
Just goes to show age hasn’t diminished his mental capacity _ Schuerholz, not Wickman _ and that the GM knew the Braves simply couldn’t afford to miss out on a closer again and have the failure haunt them the entire 2007 season, the way it has this year (their 20 blown saves in 40 chances before Wickman’s arrival were as big a reason for the sub-.500 season as any).
Wickman is re-signed, but the building process has just begun. Because if you’re going to have a top-flight closer, you need to have a proven setup man or two to get the lead to him.
As surprising as Chad Paronto has been, the Braves need to get another proven guy to help shorten games to seven innings, someone of the caliber of Danys Baez, though personally I’d prefer a bit more consistency even if the tradeoff was a bit less stuff. He might be too expensive for the role anyway, especially if some team decides he could be their closer, which he’d probably prefer.
Then there’s the rotation. Seemingly an overabundance of starters to choose from next year, but we all should know by now the axiom _ you can never have too much starting pitching. This year was a classic example, because when Jorge Sosa fell on his face and John Thomson got hurt _ once, twice, how many times? _ and Horacio Ramirez and Kyle Davies got hurt … well, where were the Braves then?
Turning to relievers Lance Cormier and Oscar Villarreal to start key games while the Braves desperately tried to remain in the wild-card race, that’s where they were. And while both have surpassed most expectations as starters, the fact remains that neither was the ideal solution.
The Braves need to bring in another starter, as I’ve said before, now more than ever. Because with Smoltz at 39, Hampton coming back from elbow and knee surgeries and more than a one-year absence, and Davies still trying to establish himself, the Braves’ rotation is far from being a sure strength for 2007.
Chuck James has passed the test in my eyes and proven he’s no fluke. He’ll be solid and win 15 or more games next season.
But Tim Hudson, the man we all assumed would be a co-ace with Smoltz and take over the No. 1 role by now, simply hasn’t lived up to billing.
He’s not been nearly as woeful as some suggest, but he sure hasn’t been the guy the Braves expected when they traded for him and gave him a four-year, $47 million extension before he’d ever thrown a pitch in a spring training game (not that they had much choice, given the March 1 deadline he gave them to get an extension done, or else he said he would’ve not negotiated during the 2005 season and would’ve tested free agency at the end of that season).
The guy who was the winningest pitcher in the AL over five seasons? He hasn’t been that guy, folks. He just hasn’t.
And the Braves have a bit of a quandary with him in that next season is the last year his contract is still relatively cheap ($6 mill). If he has another mediocre season (and double-digit losses and a ERA well over 4.00 is mediocre, any way you slice it), what team is going to be willing to trade for Hudson, who makes $13 mill in 2008 and $13 mill in 2009, with a $12 mill option for 2010 and $1 mill buyout of that option?
The Braves backloaded his contract to fit him into last year’s payroll (and this year’s payroll) and assumed they’d have a lot of young players making small salaries when his contract really kicked in and made him one of the team’s highest paid players.
But what they couldn’t have assumed is they’d need to get another ace to lead the rotation in those last two years of Hudson’s contract. At this point, with no certainty regarding Smoltz at 41 in 2008 or Hampton coming back to be an ace, there is a very real possibility that the Braves would be without a legit No. 1-caliber starter in 2008 if Hudson doesn’t rebound.
Check this stat, for those ready to defend Hudson and downplay his struggles: Hudson had 17 quality starts (six innings or more, three earned runs or fewer) in his first 26 games for the Braves through Sept. 12, 2005. He has only 14 quality starts in his 36 games since then.
He has 12 wins this season (before his Saturday start), but he also has a career-worst 11 losses and 4.83 ERA, and Hudson has failed to take advantage of the seventh-best run support in the NL (he’s received 5.7 runs per nine innings pitched, far greater than most other Braves starters).
At the risk of being accused of going to the altar of a certain other Braves starter, consider this: Smoltz has made 65 starts since returning to the rotation in 2005, and the Braves have scored two runs or fewer while he’s been in 33 of those 65 games. I’d bet that if Smoltz got as much run support as Hudson’s received this season, he’d have at least 17 wins.
We’ll get around to the Andruw Jones and Marcus Giles situations later, since we’ve got plenty of time to blog here in coming weeks about what needs to be done. But feel free, of course, to discuss whatever you please in regards to those concerns or any other. Just thought I’d weigh in a bit on the pitching staff after the surprising Wickman announcement.
