AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2006 > September > 14
Thursday, September 14, 2006
Remember when Braves starting pitchers ruled?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Since I was away when the divisional reign ended, I’ll take a moment of silence for the passing of a Braves era.
OK, done.
Now, we know the no-closer bullpen’s woeful work for two-thirds of the season undermined any chance whatsoever the Braves ever had of staying with the powerful Mets this season. But let’s take a moment to consider this rotation.
Oh, wait, first, I noticed some debate in yesterday’s blog about LaRoche’s production. Actually it was just one obvious LaRoche-hater attempting to discredit his season this year, and a bunch of others making strong points to counter that puzzling premise.
But here’s one for you. Putting aside the torrid stretch he’s had since late June, let’s look at his overall career thus far: LaRoche has a .278 average with 91 doubles, 64 homers, 212 RBIs, 273 strikeouts and an .855 OPS in 1,213 at-bats.
I went back to find the two most accomplished current Braves, a pair of potential Hall-of-Famers, and see how their career numbers looked after a similar number of at-bats.
Chipper Jones, after 1,215 at-bats, had a .292 average with 62 doubles, 55 homers, 216 RBIs, 203 strikeouts and an .869 OPS.
Andruw Jones, after 1,213 at-bats, had a .255 average with 62 doubles, 60 homers, 200 RBIs, 292 strikeouts and a .790 OPS.
Again, LaRoche: 1,213 at-bats, .278 average with 91 doubles, 64 homers, 212 RBIs, 273 strikeouts and an .855 OPS.
Discuss among yourselves.
OK, back to the starting rotation:
Between injuries (John Thomson, Horacio Ramirez, Kyle Davies and Mike Hampton, if you want to count him) and underperforming (Jorge Sosa, Thomson, Davies if you want to throw him in like I do, and, oh yes, Tim Hudson take a step forward) this has been the worst overall rotation the Braves have fielded since before the run began.
Perhaps that’s obvious to most, by now. But I did a bit of quick research after noticing the Braves’ 4.76 starters’ ERA (tied with Milwaukee for 10th in the NL) and especially their 45-55 record.
Granted, the aforementioned bullpen, with the notable exception of late addition Bob Wickman, has contributed mightily to the 10-below-.500 starters’ record. Nevertheless, it’s an unsightly number, and got me thinking … when’s the last time the Braves’ starters had a losing record?
It probably won’t shock most of you that it was 1990, the last year they didn’t win a division title. They finished last in the NL West that season, and Braves starters were 48-69 with a 4.39 ERA (next-to-last in the NL).
Care to take a stab at guessing the Braves’ winningest starter that year?
That’d be John Smoltz, who went 14-11 with a 3.85 ERA in 231-1/3 innings. Next-most wins in that rotation was Tom Glavine (10-12, 4.28), then Charlie Liebrandt (9-11, 3.16) and no one else with more than five wins. Steve Avery was 3-10 with a 5.47 ERA in 20 starts (see, there’s hope for Kyle Davies, folks).
This year’s rotation is led statistically by Smoltz (12-9, 3.86 in 203 innings) and Chuck James (9-3, 3.74 in 14 starts). I say Chuck instead of Hudson because the rookie’s numbers are clearly more impressive than Hudson’s 12-11, 4.95 ERA, with only 129 strikeouts in 200 innings while allowing 219 hits and 72 walks. Yikes.
Ramirez (5-5) is the only other one who’s won more than two games as a starter for the Braves this season, if you can believe that. That’s just remarkably bad, for a team built on starting pitching for so long.
There is hope, obviously. Hampton, though hardly a sure thing given his litany of injuries and surgeries, has progressed well in rehab and should be completely ready for a full workload at spring training.
James looks like a keeper, a solid middle-rotation guy who can win you 15-18 games for a long time. Cormier and/or Villarreal look better suited to starting than relieving, and at least one of them (I’d guess Cormier) could be a solid back-of-rotation guy next season.
Hudson surely won’t be any worse next season, and could have a rebound in his third NL season, couldn’t he? No? Maybe?
Davies should get better (he can’t get much worse than he’s looked lately), like the vast majority of talented young starters do after early struggles. Not saying I’m sold on him as a future ace, like the Braves say they are, but he could be. He has the talent if he can get his head and mechanics and everything else straightened out.
But at the end of the day, I just think the Braves have to look hard to pick up another proven veteran starter this winter, not a huge-salaried guy or even a 15-game winner, but a guy they can count on to make 35 starts and pitch 200 or so innings.
They simply can’t piece together a rotation all season the way they did this year and expect to compete for the division title. Better, far better, to have a surplus of starters entering the season than be scrounging to convert relievers to starters at midseason after a spate of injuries.
There’s obviously a list of other things the Braves need to do this winter, and we’ll get into all of them in the coming weeks, trust me. You can talk about any of them you want here, of course. I just wanted to focus on the starters, after seeing those stats.
Oh, almost forget, here’s the starters’ records and ERA since that 48-69, 4.39 ERA in 1990 and this year’s 45-55, 4.76 ERA:
1991: 72-49 (3.46 ERA); 1992: 72-42 (2.95); 1993: 79-42 (3.13); 1994: 52-33 (3.28); 1995: 62-38 (3.25); 1996: 70-48 (3.45); 1997: 75-37 (3.05); 1998: 90-40 (3.06) — NINETY-AND-FORTY!; 1999: 70-45 (3.67); 2000: 76-49 (4.06); 2001: 64-51 (3.54); 2002: 71-45 (3.42); 2003: 74-39 (4.16); 2004: 68-49 (3.84); 2005: 65-43 (3.65).
Wow. Talk about decline. Compare this year’s numbers to all those seasons, when Atlanta starters were at least 13 games over .500 every season and usually 22-30 games over .500, including the otherwordly 90-40 record in 1998.
On an entirely different note, anybody see the Flaming Lips last night at Tabernacle? I didn’t go, but heard the sold-out show was outstanding. Two days until REM and Greg Allman get inducted into the Georgia Music Hall of Fame, and I’m looking forward to seeing those dudes jam (they’re all going to play at the ceremony, at least three songs apiece).
