Braves

By hk

September 11, 2006 04:07 PM | Link to this

… here’s the hitter’s ‘MVP’ through last night …

LaRoche moved past Frenchy into 2nd, tied for team lead in total bases (with Frenchy) ..

McCann moved up past Giles…

Betemit cooling off a bit, Braves/La >>> .281/.260 avg, .344/.306 obp,.842/.810 ops …

Year End..Runs..Homers..RBI’s..MVP..Last

Andruw….100…..38…..123…261…264

LaRoche….92…..34…..100…227…223

Frenchy….84…..27…..108…220…226

Chipper….90…..26……90…206…214

Renteria..103…..14……66…183…189

McCann…..59…..22……86…167…156

Giles……90…..11……60…163…162

Betemit….51…..19……54…124…127

Langy……46……8……31….84….86

Team Average……………….176…178

click here for chart

By Heath

September 11, 2006 04:08 PM | Link to this

DOB, I think that the Braves, slight as they may be, still have a chance at the playoffs, and, thus, should avoid Howard if the game is close. Moving forward from tonight’s matchup against the Cubs, the next 6 games are against two teams that the Braves HAVE to outplay. If the Braves go 4-2 or 5-1 against fla and phi, they should put themselves into a good spot to get back into the race as San Diego has its next 6 games on the road at CIN and LA. Now is NOT the time for Bobby to be heroic—pitch around the BIG FELLA BOBBY! Side note….why not move andruw to the numner 5/6 hole since he has been…well horrible of late? Also, I think Bobby should leave Laroche in the 3 hole even when CHipper gets back…why not a batting order of 1.) Giles 2.) Renteria 3.) Laroche 4.) Chipper 5.) Andruw 6.) McCann 7.) Francoeur 8.) Diaz????sounds a lot better to me….

By ncscoots

September 11, 2006 04:24 PM | Link to this

I’ve never been in favor of intentional walks in non-strategic situations, even when Bonds was at his most lethal. To me, that sends a bad message to pitchers, that “you can’t get this guy out even when it doesn’t really matter, so you probably can’t get him out with the game on the line, either.” Make pitches and you get outs, make mistakes and you get hammered, and that’s a truism regardless of the hitter’s last name. Does that mean I’d pitch to Howard with a base open, one on in the eighth, leading by a run? Heck, no. I never said I was suicidal!

By TennesseePaul

September 11, 2006 04:25 PM | Link to this

Nice post DOB. Very nice.

By BravesinTN

September 11, 2006 04:29 PM | Link to this

If laying up, punting on 4th and inches, working the shot clock, intentional walking, etc., wins you the game, then do it. Forget “the book” or respect, etc. I could care less what it looks like in terms of respect, manhood, etc. W & L’s are ALL its about in regards to walking vs pitching to…(in my opinion) GO BRAVES!

By Paging Bill James

September 11, 2006 04:31 PM | Link to this

Now, where’s Bill James to straight all this out. Did you know, after reading and anyalizing stats, you can learn more about how to play the game than actually playing it? Spend 2 days straight on the stats of great curve ball pitchers, and you’ll easily learn how to hit a curve ball 450 feet. Study Henderson and Nixon’s stolen base stats, and quickly learn how to run on a pitcher and steal over 90 in a season. It’s all in the stats!

By TennesseePaul

September 11, 2006 04:34 PM | Link to this

I’d have most all of my pitchers except Hudson and Davies pitch to Howard. Davies has yet to be hammered by him, but he’s been on the DL for a while. But hey, if Burrell or whoever is behind Howard is in an Andruw-esque rut, walk him and get to the rut.

By KC

September 11, 2006 04:37 PM | Link to this

TennPaul:

I was sure that he did have some kind of health related setback early on… but I can’t find any info on it now, so maybe that was all in my head. I dunno.

By ncscoots

September 11, 2006 04:41 PM | Link to this

well, if Hudson has any sand at all, he’s gonna WANT to pitch to the big guy, he’s gonna want to make him look so bad that his mama won’t look at him. Whether he gets the chance to do that, and whether he’s capable of accomplishing the feat, might be another story altogether.

By KC

September 11, 2006 04:41 PM | Link to this

Ryan Howard is about to break the all-time single season homerun record (of 61 held by Roger Maris). McGuire, Sosa, and Bonds should all have their numbers cleared from the record books. They’re are cheating criminals, and in my mind, Roger Maris is still the single season homerun king… at least for a few more weeks.

By Thomas

September 11, 2006 04:42 PM | Link to this

howard has a 318 56 138

By KC

September 11, 2006 04:44 PM | Link to this

nscoots:

Hudson’s “sand” may cause him to want to pitch to Howard, but I hope common sense will prevail. Howard kills Tim Hudosn. If Howard comes up with runners on base, Hudson should walk him.

By Heath

September 11, 2006 04:45 PM | Link to this

I doubt Howard will get 61 HRs….starting tomorrow…his BB stats will increase dramatically with the postseason on the line for his opponents

By TennesseePaul

September 11, 2006 04:48 PM | Link to this

KC: We’ll have to get DOB on that one. DOB did Cormier have surgery in the past year or two? Villarreal did, right?

KC: You can’t just erase them from the record books, it’d make everything else that occured in games they played seem totally out of whack. Besides, you can’t blot out history just cause you don’t like it.
I say, keep them out of the Hall. You can’t change what happened, but you can prevent the eternal enshrinement.

By KC

September 11, 2006 04:49 PM | Link to this

Is the ChopChick still alive? I just noticed the same 4 blogs ubder her name that have been there for ages.

By ncscoots

September 11, 2006 04:50 PM | Link to this

KC, does that mean you take away, oh, say, 100 of Gaylord Perry’s wins (an admitted “cheating criminal”), or forfeit games where the opposition is stealing signs, or force first basemen to admit the runner got there first instead of saying “I got him”? I’m not defending McGuire/Bonds/Sosa etc., I think what they’ve done is an outrage, but you can’t indict them for “cheating” without looking at ALL the ways baseball players circumvent the rules, day in and day out.

By KC

September 11, 2006 04:55 PM | Link to this

TennPaul:

You’re making far too much sense. You’re being rational while all I’m saying is I’m mad as hell and I’m not gonna take it anymore!!! lol

No, I don’t mean literally strike their numbers from the books. I just mean that (presuming sufficient evidence of steroid use) MLB should put an asterisk next to their records, and announce that officially declare their records illegitimate… essentially restoring Roger Maris (or soon to be Ryan Howard) as the official single-season home run king.

By Ptown Bravo

September 11, 2006 04:55 PM | Link to this

Even draped in a Phillies uniform, young Mr. Howard is tough to dislike. I’ve been impressed this year with his willingness to slap singles to the left side of the infield when his team needs them - I don’t ever remember Bonds making such a sacrifice for the good of the team.

By Thomas

September 11, 2006 04:57 PM | Link to this

Stats at the end of the Year:

Marcus Giles 275AVG 16HR 70RBI

Edgar Renteria 300AVG 15HR 75RBI

Chipper Jones 320AVG 25HR 80RBI

Andruw Jones 265AVG 36HR 120RBI

Brian McCann 335AVG 22HR 78RBI

Jeff Franceour 265AVG 28HR 106RBI

Adam Laroche 298AVG 33HR 104RBI

Matt Diaz 325AVG 7HR 45RBI

By KC

September 11, 2006 05:01 PM | Link to this

nscoots:

I don’t think MLB should tolerate cheating in any form. Again, I don’t mean literally strike the numbers from the books, but an asterisk and an official admonishment is perfectly in order. Why should cheaters be allowed to hold the same degree of honor as those who have achieved the same success (or close to it) through nothing but hard work?

By Tim McGraw

September 11, 2006 05:04 PM | Link to this

Hey everyone, I just wanted to give a shout-out to Tony A. from the previous blog. You’re my biggest fan, so I’d like to invite you to my house in Nashville.

It’ll be great, we can do cowboy things, like get pedicures and compare women to inanimate objects around the house. For instance, my woman is like a barstool, legs are long and lanky, but dumb as a block of wood. Hot dang, that’s a top 40 hit.

Man, life is good as a cowboy. I’m hanging out with Cowboy Troy later today. He’s so country.

Bring your tight shirt and we’ll have a ball together, Tony. You’re the best fan this outlaw could ever have.

By TheSouthernJackAss

September 11, 2006 05:07 PM | Link to this

I think that once it went from 2 eight team leagues with 154 games to expanded leagues with 162 games all comparisons become moot. It’s impossible to know how many the ‘Babe’ would hit today or how many R. Howard would have hit in the 1920’s. It’s almost like the apples and oranges comparisons. The game has changed so much. I think we should probably compartmentalize the ‘records’. We can know who the standouts of each era were and should recognize them for their accomplishments in that time frame. It’s fun to speculate as to who the greatest hitters and pitchers were but I’m afraid it’s pointless to argue over.

By AZBravoFan

September 11, 2006 05:07 PM | Link to this

There are very few pitchers on this team who I would trust pitching to Howard. Smoltz would be one obviously, although we’ve seen him get pig-headed pitching to Bonds and get burned. I would even let Chuckie James take a shot, as well as he’s been throwing. That’s about it for the starters though. As for relievers, we saw McBride go right after him with some success. Same with Wickman. That’s about it though. Everyone else is just too inconsistent and too prone to leaving one up that he can pound. If we have a big lead and there’s no one on fine, take your chances. But I gotta think the odds of Burrell rolling into a DP are better than keeping Howard in the yard. By the way, everybody remember how Tony Clark just abused Jorge Sosa earlier in the year. Took him deep again yesterday in AZ. Can’t believe we held onto that guy for so long.

By TennesseePaul

September 11, 2006 05:14 PM | Link to this

Yeah…. but Jorge sure could mash ‘em. Maybe we should have sent him back down and retrained him as a fielder to get that bat in the line up.

By The Grinch

September 11, 2006 05:37 PM | Link to this

Good post, SJA.

By TheSouthernJackAss

September 11, 2006 05:45 PM | Link to this

GRINCH Thank you. Seems funny but it’s almost as much fun talking baseball as it was being an a@@hole.

By AZBravoFan

September 11, 2006 05:50 PM | Link to this

Good point TPaul. He had good speed too. Perhaps he was the leadoff man we were looking for…

By David O'Brien

September 11, 2006 05:51 PM | Link to this

Just talking to Derrek Lee in the Cubs clubhouse before the gane, asking him about Braves’ division run and all. Known him since he was traded to Florida from San Diego way back, so we were shooting the crap and all. I mentioned Ryan Howard to him, just said, “How ‘bout Ryan Howard.”

Lee: “He’s unbelievable. If he doesn’t win the MVP, it’s a joke.”

By ncscoots

September 11, 2006 05:53 PM | Link to this

KC, I didn’t mean to imply that ‘roid users shouldn’t be punished (in whatever fashion, asterisks, admonishment, and so forth), and I don’t mean to equate sign-stealing with ‘roid use, either. I was simply saying that “cheating” as defined by “not following every rule to the letter” has been going on since the day after Abner Doubleday laid out the first diamond (it took a day to figure out the rules before someone could come up with a way to break them, LOL). Anyway, no one has actually proved (at least to the commissioner’s office, obviously) that McGuire/Sosa/Bonds were “enhanced”, though I doubt even Perry Mason would take the defense side of THAT case!

By StartANewStreak

September 11, 2006 05:53 PM | Link to this

To second Grinch’s comment, that was a great post SJA. I agree that it’s impossible to compare players across eras, but the problem with the steriod issue is that we can’t even accurately compare players of the same era. I wonder how many borderline HOFers who DIDN’T use steroids will be hurt because their numbers don’t look as good compared to others in the “steroid era”. I have no way of knowing if he did, but I believe that Chipper has been clean his entire career, and if he has is a great illustration of this type of player. Their is just no way to know who was and wasn’t using during this time period.

By TennesseePaul

September 11, 2006 05:58 PM | Link to this

DOB: Nice. Lee: “He’s unbelievable. If he doesn’t win the MVP, it’s a joke.”

It would have been funny had he come back with: “He’s OK I guess. His numbers normalized to parks really show how unimpressive he is. Anybody could do that in Philly…”

The man is good. It bums me out. Wish the Braves would pull up a prolific hitter like that. But, Howard is “old” so I’ll only be bummed for about a decade. I’d be distraught if he was doing this at 19 or 20.

By Big Braves Fan

September 11, 2006 05:59 PM | Link to this

First time posting here…great blog. Two points. First on Howard, whether he’s clean or not, this really is the perfect storm for a great season like this. Think about it: (a) he’s already 26 and was held back longer than he should have been, so he’s basically nearing his prime but without the large amount of experience for teams to scout him to death…he’s still getting pitches to handle; (b) he plays in a tiny ballpark suited to his power; (c) the league is relatively weak this year, adding to the already obvious dilution of pitching; and (d) we’re still in a hitter’s era, testing or not. Don’t believe me? Check out the NL team ERA’s. Second, hey DOB, if you look at the schedule and what’s ahead for each team, I think you can make a case that if the Braves win tonight (probable) and then run off a 5-1 stretch against the Phils and Marlins (improbable) they’ll be right there with 2 weeks to go. Amazing.

By ncscoots

September 11, 2006 06:04 PM | Link to this

if the Braves reel a 5-1 against the Phillies and Marlins, they will officially get my “Gum-On-My-Shoe” award, as absolutely impossible to get rid of! :-)

By doc

September 11, 2006 06:05 PM | Link to this

i hope that the powers that be are able to see how much gate revenues this team lost by penny pinching and keeping fast to a budget in the off season. this team was better than we could see in spite of the spate of injuries to a very depleted pitching corp. wickman has been unbelievable. there was no margin for error or injuries this year.

dont you think the team ought to drop some of its arrogant pretense and sign this dude wickman up and smoltz and buy an insurance policy? they could use some of the money thet stole from chipper for the insurance.

the bullpen and the road trips to start the season beat this team down mentally, way to young to overcome that and lose a very indispensible catcher at a critical time. i am opimistic or next year only if there is a bit of a philosophical change from the aol stuff that sent he hawks down the tubes and threatens the braves, maybe the new owners will insist that the old owners are better stewards as the change is accomplished.

howard is a beast. you pitch to him by throwing nothing that he likes and out of the strike zone and force him to be patient which by his numbers he isnt if he has that many strikeouts. you just dont challange him, way too good. now where did he come from if he is “only” 26 and just now getting to the bigs? are the phillies that bad in scouting their own players?

what is the latest on our salty?

By TennesseePaul

September 11, 2006 06:06 PM | Link to this

The beauty of this division title streak is, there are many streaks within. There is the titles… The post season appearances… and the consecutive winning seasons. That last one is still very much alive as long as these guys go out and salvage this season. If they manage that, they’ll be in a good place to keep two of those alive. The first one is dead. The Mets are good, but I don’t know so much if this streak is dying because the Mets are good, or because the Braves have played horrible this year. I’m leaning towards the second one. It gives me hope that they could actually change things in this season and make a run at the post season while securing 16 straight winning seasons.

By doc

September 11, 2006 06:10 PM | Link to this

f must be messing up meant for in two places.

i realize that howard is not a rookie. the comment on howard was relative to his not getting a chance to perform until thome went down last year and only then; if not he still might be doing aaa ball.

By Stinky

September 11, 2006 06:17 PM | Link to this

What have I done???? I’ve turned SJA into Pat Boone…

By doc

September 11, 2006 06:24 PM | Link to this

dob, catching up on the end of yesterdays blog. love allison, spent time in n e tn and they used to go to a bar in johnson city before they went big time.

was sitting on the porch at the oakhurst grill saurday night and her rendition which i have of, long way home, once again it brought me to my knees.

will check out the north miss all stars.

By TennesseePaul

September 11, 2006 06:26 PM | Link to this

doc: he was “stuck” behind Jim Thome. Thome went down and Howard came up. It’s like he’s making up for lost time.

By TennesseePaul

September 11, 2006 06:43 PM | Link to this

they used to go to a bar in johnson city before they went big time

Gatsby’s is a good bar up there.

By JJMB

September 11, 2006 06:46 PM | Link to this

I still think Howard should be automatically be tested for steroids, and HGH when the test is available for that. That goes for anyone breezing through these long-held power records.

By David O'Brien

September 11, 2006 06:48 PM | Link to this

THIS JUST IN: Aybar (upset stomach) and LaRoche (strained right hammy) both scratched, Prado batting leadoff and playing third, Thorman batting eighth and playing first

Allyson Moorer rules my world. Her and her sister Shelby Lynne.

RE the Braves’ wild-card position and possibilities: Amazing, indeed, Big Braves Fan.

By Spider29

September 11, 2006 07:01 PM | Link to this

My “two-cents” on pitching to Ryan Howard…it galls me when our pitchers have to do it but I think we should pitch around Howard as much as needed. Now, if we have a big lead and he comes to the plate with two out and nobody on, then pitch to him and if he hits one out so be it! The biggest problem we’ll have is that if we pitch around Howard we have to be able to get the next guy out every time. And pitching out of jams hasn’t been a strong suit with some of our pitchers this year. As for Howard for MVP, I think it’s between him and Beltran. If I had a vote I’d vote for Ryan because the Mets probably run away with the division even if Beltran has an average season. But if the Phillies don’t have the big man, I doubt they’d be fighting for the wild card.

By Pat Boone

September 11, 2006 07:07 PM | Link to this

People forget I actually used to be quite popular. See the U-S-A/in your Chevrolet… You all only wish you could be as cool!

By Heath

September 11, 2006 07:19 PM | Link to this

Well, that just about does it….a 3-run hr in the first off smoltz…looking like he is on his way to a 3-game personal losing streak…if we can not even get wins from smoltz….it is just meant to be that we sit at home during the playoffs this year….sigh

By Train Wreck Bystander

September 11, 2006 07:20 PM | Link to this

Howard might find it a bit tougher to hit homers at Turner Field. It’s not the old “launching pad”, nor is it the new homerdrome he normally plays in.

By TommyB

September 11, 2006 07:35 PM | Link to this

I hope you are correct, Dave OB. I have heard speculation that he may be on something other than steroids, and that was across at least two different programs on XM’s MLB HomePlate. The folks doing the speculating were former players/managers. Like I said, I hope it isn’t true.

Lindsey Buckingham coming to Variety Playhouse. That could be an interesting evening as he is one hell of a picker.

By Pat Boone

September 11, 2006 07:43 PM | Link to this

I bet Smoltz will be an awful lot more humble next year; he’s actually the weak link in our rotation now (excluding Davies). I’m sure that will change, but how ill-timed. BTW, I’m also watching the Redskins/Vikings game. Does anyone know how it is that the Redskins’ cheerleaders are so disproportionately hot, even for NFL cheerleaders? I’ve been to D.C., and I assure you they can’t be local talent. The Atlanta area is full of hotties, but their cheerleaders look like band camp girls by comparison. Go and figure.

By Devil's Advocate

September 11, 2006 07:58 PM | Link to this

Smoltz’s ERA is pushing 4.00 now. You fans jinxed him good with all your Cy Young Award talk a few starts ago.

Maybe Cormier can give Smoltzy some tips for pitching to the Cubs.

By Lew

September 11, 2006 07:59 PM | Link to this

So much for the Howard quandry. Just what’s wrong with Smoltz?

By TommyB

September 11, 2006 08:00 PM | Link to this

Groin.

By Ron Roberts

September 11, 2006 08:02 PM | Link to this

Geez, Smoltz stands up and says his peace about picking up his option, then promptly takes a nose dive. Great. We’d actually be in the wild card chase if he’d pitched as well after he spouted off as he did before.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

September 11, 2006 08:03 PM | Link to this

Now, is it me or does it appear that ever since Smoltz wondered aloud if the Braves were going to exercise the option in his contract he has done everything to persuade the Braves not to give that extension. Also, I wonder if Smoltz will be critical of himself since he said this when you would find out who on this team has what it takes to get the team to .500. This is the second time in two weeks he has pitched with the chance to give the Braves a series sweep and he has blown it horribly both times. I love Smoltz but you have to put your money where you mouth is and he hasn’t done that.

Let’s hope these guys can get it together and make a comeback tonight.

By Devil's Advocate

September 11, 2006 08:03 PM | Link to this

Smoltz threw 123 pitches his last start. I wouldn’t expect a 39-year-old arm to have much zip the next time out.

By David O'Brien

September 11, 2006 08:05 PM | Link to this

Smoltz’s groin has been bothering him a couple of weeks, apparently. he’s told a couple people. I’m sure we’ll hear it from him after this.

Can you believe it, the only guy they could count on for much of the summer, now the only guy who can’t win. Maybe two straight seasons of grinding out innings all summer and staying in for 7-9 innings every game will finally teach them a lesson next year. Or not. But he’s going to be 40, and he simply can’t pitch 220 innings and stay healthy.

TommyB, then you’ve heard something about Howard I haven’t heard. You gotta take that radio talk with a vat of salt, man. They’re not held accountable for anything they spew, unlike stuff that’s written on a page or even on a web page.

Even in casual conversations, I haven’t heard one player, writer, broadcaster or manager speculate that Howard is on something. Not one. But hey, that’s the unfortunate era we live in now, everyone who puts up a huge season is going to come under a cloud of suspicion. But in his case, just don’t see any signs whatsoever.

By Devil's Advocate

September 11, 2006 08:05 PM | Link to this

In any event, Smoltzy won’t have any classy postgame quotes about “one bad pitch” this time. And this is the worst team in the league shelling him tonight, not the Mets.

By TommyB

September 11, 2006 08:07 PM | Link to this

Get a grip, folks. Smoltz is still Smoltz.

If his performance goes down, there is something wrong. Now, we know it’s his groin.

So, who wants to be that hasn’t been going on for his last two starts?

By AZBravoFan

September 11, 2006 08:09 PM | Link to this

I’m so tired of Smoltz’s pig-headedness. What is the point of him continuing to pitch after he strained his groin? It’s not like he was lighting them up before that. All he did was put himself in jeopardy for the rest of the season and then effectively take his own team out of what was still a winnable game. Blame to Bobby too for not using his authority and pulling the plug himself.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

September 11, 2006 08:14 PM | Link to this

Well, if his groin is hurting then I can cut him some slack. This just sucks. Everytime they have a chance for a sweep they choke. It is the freaking Cubs!

By Devil's Advocate

September 11, 2006 08:15 PM | Link to this

Can anyone explain to me why a .331 hitter is batting sixth tonight, especially with Jeff Francoeur, The Whiff Machine, batting fifth?

By JJMB

September 11, 2006 08:16 PM | Link to this

Maybe Howard IS clean. Then he wouldn’t mind drug testing, would he? Or retaining a blood sample for later analysis (i.e. when a HGH and other modified androgens tests are available).

By nathan

September 11, 2006 08:28 PM | Link to this

Good Evenining Everybody!

Does anybody recall a while ago when Smoltz was emphatically begging JS to “do something” to help the club down the stretch?

Maybe JS should’ve found us a new ACE that could actually pitch better down the stretch. Since we already have Hudson to fill the roll of “overpaid” ACE.

Just think, if this is a sign of John being in decline and JS picks up his (Smoltz) option next year and Hampton has an off year, we could have about 30 million dollars tied up into 3 worthless pitchers.

I love John Smoltz, but either he’s hurt or he’s finally showing his age. Then again, if he’s hurt, that could also fall on BOTH Hudson’s and JS’s shoulders. Hudson for SUCKING all year and JS for not finding another starter to carry the load. Thus FORCING Smoltz to feel like he has to go 9 innings every night. Oh wait, he’s the ACE and he’s making a millions of dollars! I guess he SHOULD go 8 or 9 once in a while!

Said it once. I’ll say it a thousand more times. Should’ve traded Smoltz, Hudson and Andruw at the deadline. Combined they make about double of the Marlins total payroll. I’m sure we could’ve got some YOUNG GUNS in those trades. But NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO, JS would rather sit on his book signing A$$ and watch this team blow up in front of his face. Hard to do when he’s not watching.

At this rate, I’m not sure if JS should exercise that option for next year. Why, so when we’re in the stretch drive, Smoltz can be flexing his arm and throwing sidearm fastballs up there, while his shoulder is bleeding?

What a joke!

By David O'Brien

September 11, 2006 08:29 PM | Link to this

I think I said Thorman replacing LaRoche in first post about that switch. It was obviously Ward. My bad.

marlins up 9-3 in fifth now, so Mets are going to have to wait at least another day to “officially” eliminate the Braves from the NL East

By nathan

September 11, 2006 08:30 PM | Link to this

Anybody notice that Smolt’z ERA is BARELY lower than Oscar’s is.

OUCH!!!

By TommyB

September 11, 2006 08:34 PM | Link to this

Dave OB,

I really do want to believe Ryan Howard is clean. I like what I see of him.

There are voices of doubt however, beyond those on XM’s MLB HomePlate.

Here’s the NY Times from September 5.

Note that he only addresses steroid use and does not mention HGH or anything else.

FWIW, I am not a NY Times acolyte.

I am just saying there is noise out there beyond the blogosphere.

By nathan

September 11, 2006 08:37 PM | Link to this

Sorry for venting about Smoltz without reading the posts.

Just noticed DOB’s post that Smoltz’s groin is bothering him.

Makes sense. He’s the only reliable starter all year. Now when everything seems to be “coming around” (which is still too little, too late IMO - but there is NOTHING wrong with ending the season on a high note. Or at least higher than they’ve been all season! LOL), Smoltz is the only one who is not reliable right now!

Sad, sad day in Braves Land. But I guess it’s just one more notch in a Sad, sad season.

Chuck James, Brian McCann, Adam LaRoche and Jeff Francoeur. Those are the ONLY nice words I can say about this team right now.

I’m not sure who p!ssed in my Wheaties this morning, but I’m feeling kinda angry today! LOL! Oh well. Time to vent, I guess.

By dadgum

September 11, 2006 08:40 PM | Link to this

Been gone awhile from the blog as I went to Charlotte to see my Panthers play the Falcons. Well at least the Falcons played and pretty well at that. Maybe the Panthers were reading too many early press clippings.

Hopefully I don’t rehash too much from prior blogs lately but some musings…..gotta believe Smoltz will be put on the shelf the rest of the year. Absolutely no reason for him to play and keep mounting meaningless innings onto the pile he has already accumulated. September innings are multiplied when it comes to hurting a players chances of recovery. It seems I heard that Smoltz was hurt (groin?). Why put him at further risk.

Gotta think JS will be seeking a #1 pitcher that is not 40 years old. With the Marlins young pitchers doing so well Willis could be available or at least seriously considered. The Marlins have a history of letting go of payroll and quickly. The Braves would have the money to pay Willis. It would take a big package to land him. Something like Giles/Thorman/prospect. With all due respect to Smoltz I don’t really think the Braves can be serious threats to win a playoff spot with him as a #1 go to guy during a full season. By all means I see him as a #2 or #3 but time is taking it’s toll.

With Andruw looking like he is in a sinking spell if I were him I would be signing the earliest contract possible to get locked up. His stock has to be declining with his sub .200 average over the last month or so. On the other hand JS might want to seek the earliest trade possible before AJ’s value has diminished to where the Dodgers or Yankees aren’t interested.

Northern Mississippi All Stars huh…gonna go to YouTube .com to see if they are there.

Ken Ray throws one pitch = 1 home run. Ouch!

By Lew

September 11, 2006 08:53 PM | Link to this

Dadgum-I don’t see a package containing Giles going to the Marlins. He makes more than Dontrelle before arbitration and they already have Dan Uggla at second. They flat out don’t need Giles.

By dadgum

September 11, 2006 09:02 PM | Link to this

Actually I was thinking more about a trade in general and just throwing some scenario out there. It is just clear as day the Braves really need that proven, durable,reliable quality starter next year. It will take some combination of players most likely unless the Braves will be free agent players for said pitcher which I doubt given their payroll. If they move Andruw then yeah maybe they will have that money. A lot of scenarios to be sure.

By The Grinch

September 11, 2006 09:03 PM | Link to this

Hey, Y’all. I was “Pat Boone” earlier and just noticed I forgot to change it back for the second post. The halftime show of the Redskins game was a short but moving 9/11 tribute. Lew, Asphalt Ballet sort of sounds like a cross between Jackl and Brittney Fox to me. I had been sort of avoiding it ‘till now cause the name made me think of Spandau Ballet. Very different.

By berigan

September 11, 2006 10:17 PM | Link to this

Well, the Braves may want a top notch A#1 starter, but….why would ANY team trade away one, and for what we have to offer?(Short of Andruw)Think the Cubs are going to give up a healthy Carlos Zambrano? Dontrelle Willis may be traded, but The Yankees, Angels, Red Sox, White Sox, Cards, hell, everyone will be aiming for him. What do we have that the Marlins would want? Would they want to trade in division and have to face Willis for many years??

By berigan

September 11, 2006 10:27 PM | Link to this

mlbrumor.com has a list of the top 15 Free agent starters, does anyone beyond #2 seem like someone that we would want to see pitching with the Braves? (Mike Mussina, or Andy Pettitte would be fine choices, if this was 1996) Could the Braves afford Schmidt or Zito without trading Andruw away?

1. Jason Schmidt
2. Barry Zito
3. Mike Mussina
4. Roger Clemens
5. Tom Glavine
6. Andy Pettitte
7. Miguel Batista
8. Jamie Moyer
9. Vicente Padilla
10. Greg Maddux
11. Woody Williams
12. Ted Lilly
13. Brad Radke
14. Jeff Suppan
15. Gil Meche

By TheSouthernJackAss

September 11, 2006 10:44 PM | Link to this

They could scrape up all the brains from you ignorant, juvenile, deliquent baztards and still wouldn’t have enough to fill a damn teacup! Gutless, basement dwelling, mama’s boys! Anyhow, what we’ve got here is JackAss envy, everybody wants to be like the JackAss! Hung like a damn horse, ballz so damn big they have their own chassis and suspension system! Yes, one damn handsome, motherfuer! And too damn intelligent for my own good, dangerously intelligent! But most of all I can think on my feet boys, on the move, none better! So just keep on with this juvenile shyt, pretending to be me and all that cool shyt, cause if I ever get the chance I’m going to stick these size 16 boots so far up your ignorant azs it will give your shyt some class! Yes, everybody wants to be like TheSouthernJackAss, and DOB I saw you at a game a few weeks back, stood right beside of you, thought about just bytch slappin’ the livin’ dog$hit outta your ignorant azs, but Hell! man!…couldn’t bring myself to do it…shyt you look like ol’ Barney Fife, or who’s that other little freak?…yea, Gilligan, you look like damn Gilligan!…wouldn’t get any pleasure from that man, but you do get a little full of yourself at times…you really should try to get a little sun or something on your pale azs!…now that journalist jimmy smith, that’s another matter all together, that little bytch done went and bought himself a whole crate o’ kick a*…can’t wait to run into that little CS!!!…GO TIGERS!!!…**

By The Grinch

September 11, 2006 10:50 PM | Link to this

Back again. Wow. Guess I’ll leave.

By Shaun Payne

September 11, 2006 10:56 PM | Link to this

Howard’s Season Great, but Not Quite Historic

I can’t take anything away from Ryan Howard’s season. Ryan Howard’s OPS this season would rank in the top 100 all-time. Howard will likely win the NL MVP, and I can’t argue with that.

The argument I’m about to make is really irrelevant to most fans, because Howard is certainly one of the best players in baseball in 2006 and that’s really all that matters to many. I can understand that sentiment. But I’m going to make it to try to convince some on this blog, particularly TennesseePaul, that Howard’s season is not a truely historic season. It’s only historic in the sense that he will likely rack up a historically high homerun total.

Howard’s OPS would not rank in the top 90 of all-time. Howard’s OPS isn’t even the best of this season—Travis Hafner and Albert Pujols have put up OPS’s higher or just as high. Howard’s season is not one of the top 10 or 15 or 20 seasons of all-time, maybe not even a top 20 season among firstbasemen.

Howard will likely hit over 60 homers and it’s hard to not think that’s a historic season. But it’s not.

Howard is playing in a homer-friendly era. Yes, Howard’s homer totals are the same in both his homer-friendly home park and on the road; you can’t make the argument that the high homer total is because of his home park.

You can, however, make the argument that he is playing in a homer-friendly era. Homerun totals are pretty consistent from 1998-present.

A bigger reason why this is not a historic season is because of Howard’s percentage stats: .316 AVG/.413 On-Base/.682 Slugging. While very impressive, these stats aren’t really close to historic levels and especially aren’t if you take into account that they were posted in a high-offensive era. The most important of these stats, on-base percentage, wouldn’t even rank anywhere close to the top 100 of all-time.

Howard has costs the Phillies an out in about 59 percent of his plate appearances, which is impressive. But compare that to Barry Bonds’s who made an out in only 39 percent of his plate appearances in 2004. Compare that to Wade Boggs’s 1988 season when he made an out in only 52 percent of his plate appearances (54th all-time).

Howard has costs his team more outs than players like Bonds in 2004 and Boggs in 1988 and many other players in many other seasons. Howard has been able to rack up a historic homerun total because he’s in the lineup a lot, hitting near the top of the order in a high homerun era.

A similar comparison would be Roger Maris’s 1961 season. Maris hit 61 homers. But Maris hit .269 AVG/.372 OBP/.620 SLG—impressive, but not really historic numbers.

Homeruns are obviously great, the best offensive weapon. But if you hit a lot of homeruns between a few outs, you aren’t helping your team as much as if you hit a lot of homeruns between fewer outs.

Ryan Howard is having a great season and I’m not trying to knock him at all. But context is very important to historical perspective. Howard’s season is only historic based on his homerun total. It’s not historic based on the stats that lead to producing runs for a baseball team.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

September 11, 2006 10:59 PM | Link to this

SJA, I guess your apology earlier today was short lived. Nice to see you’re back to your obnoxious, moronic, childish self. “Balls so big they need their own chassis and suspension system.” Really?! Its been my experience that men who constantly talk about how big their balls and tool are generally have balls the size of frozen peas and their tool is the size of a shoestring potato. But, I’m sure thats not the case with you. I’m sure.

Anyway, back to adult intelligent conversation. I think that Renteria, Smoltz, and Andruw should be shut down for the year. Probably Chipper too. Play the kids and if they can run off a major winning streak then great. And if not, it wasn’t expected anyway, right. Tonight has just happened too many times this year. How many games has this team lost they should’ve won. If there was ever an easy mark for a sweep, it was the Cubs. They couldn’t get it done. I hope they can get back to .500 and immediatedly start looking to next year. I think a guy like Ted Lilly could be had and wouldn’t necessarily cost that much. He would be a solid addition to the rotation that could afford the team to look into trading Horacio or Davies or just simply bringing Davies along slowly and making sure he is ready.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

September 11, 2006 11:03 PM | Link to this

Ryan Howard is what Jeff Francoeur should be aspiring to be. Howard made the right adjustments during the offseason and is having one of the best years a second year player could have. Now, Jeff needs to do the same thing this winter. If Francoeur could be 4/5 the player next year that Howard is this year, then this team will be playoff bound next season.

By TheSouthernJackAss

September 11, 2006 11:08 PM | Link to this

I didn’t apologize to anybody there Robert(just another moron)…also glad you let everyone know that you “have experience with men who constantly talk about their ball and tool size” there boy…so adios, don’t let the door, or anything else, hit you in the as$ on the way out!!!…

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

September 11, 2006 11:12 PM | Link to this

Well, SJA, someone with a brain and a sense of decency must have posed as you earlier today. That person was much nicer. Unfortunately, I have had experience with idiots like you who have to constantly talk about how big their balls are believing if they say it enough it will actually become true. What’s the deal with you anyway? Did your mama not let you suck from the t** long enough or what?

By David O'Brien

September 11, 2006 11:14 PM | Link to this

Shaun Payne, I made it to about the third or fourth paragraph. I tried, man. I tried. But my eyes glazed over….

SouthernJA, I’m actually quite tanned, one of the perks of the job. And anytime you want to slap me, just call me over. You’ve talked crap since spring and done nothing. It’ll continue. Any time, ‘neck. Any time.

By David O'Brien

September 11, 2006 11:18 PM | Link to this

Can we all agree that SJA is the kid everybody stuff inside the locker in junior high, now hiding behind a keyboard? Only possible explanation for such fury from the little weasel.

And your chain is pulled easier than anyone _ ANYONE _ we’ve had on the blog, dude. So now it’s pulled, fire off some incoherent posts. Hurry up. We’re waiting.

Oh, and nobody here likes you, by the way.

By Shaun Payne

September 11, 2006 11:20 PM | Link to this

David O’Brien,

It’s late. I understand. Basically Howard costs the Phillies a few out too many in 2006 for this to be considered an all-time great season. Still a great season, though. Just still trying to convince folks that homeruns and RBI alone aren’t that useful.

By David O'Brien

September 11, 2006 11:21 PM | Link to this

Meant to say “stuffed.” Or pushed to the back of the school bus. Or picked last in all pickup games. Or turned down for a date to the prom.

By Shaun Payne

September 11, 2006 11:22 PM | Link to this

I mean they’re useful, but not useful in evaluating players’ run creation.

By The Grinch

September 11, 2006 11:24 PM | Link to this

DOB, I just got a dose of karma. I went over to the Falcons detention hall and spent about ten minutes writing a carefully-considered and articulate post, which was, of course, obliterated by the AJC’s ineptitude and never showed up. That’s what I get, I suppose. Apparently Zimmerman re-invented SJA earlier (much to his chagrin); attempting to regain control of the blog. For every zombie there is a zombie king. Sigh.

By TheSouthernJackAss

September 11, 2006 11:25 PM | Link to this

You got it Ace!

By The Grinch

September 11, 2006 11:28 PM | Link to this

Shaun Payne, I’ve never bugged you before but I just simply gotta ask: do you even watch baseball because it’s fun, or do you watch it like Dustin Hoffman played cards in “Rain Man” to attempt to validate Billy Bean’s book?

By Jon

September 11, 2006 11:31 PM | Link to this

DOB, you are probably right, he was the zit faced little nerd that everyone picked on. He went home and cried to his mommy every single day, swearing one day he would have his revenge, but from afar. Afar, like from behind a computer screen. No one ever picked him for baseball or basketball games, or for spelling bee contests from the looks of his supposed jumble of words. So SJA, just sit there, waiting for the day when you go and purchase beer on your own and stop sniffing your momma’s glue stick.

By Shaun Payne

September 11, 2006 11:31 PM | Link to this

The Grinch,

MoneyBall…yeah…written by Michael Lewis not Billy Bean…definitely Michael Lewis.

By Shaun Payne

September 11, 2006 11:34 PM | Link to this

Grinch,

Actually I’m not attempting to validate anything. I was wondering if Howard’s season was historic as TennesseePaul suggested. I looked at the numbers and found that it’s far from historic, although he is probably the best candidate for MVP.

By The Grinch

September 11, 2006 11:36 PM | Link to this

Fair enough. No intention to insult, just genuinely curious and you honestly answered my question. Much oblidged.

By Shaun Payne

September 11, 2006 11:38 PM | Link to this

And I guess I’m trying to do my part to get rid of the narrow thinking that homeruns, RBI, R, etc. are important offensive stats and trying to get people to recognize context. The most important offensive stats are plate appearances, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and batting average.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

September 11, 2006 11:38 PM | Link to this

DOB, do these clowns still think they can win the wild card?

By David O'Brien

September 11, 2006 11:40 PM | Link to this

Shaun, if he keeps up anything close to his current pace the rest of the season, he’ll finish at about .320 or higher with 60-65 homers and 155-160 RBIs. My god, man, that’s a spectacular season that’s almost singlehandedly kept his ballclub in the playoff picture _ and he’s done it without anything close the protection that Pujols had in the St. Louis lineup during his greatest seasons, or even without the protection that Barry had in a few of his seasons in S.F.

Don’t bother trying to convince me it’s not an astounding season worthy of the MVP award, because it is. Period.

By the way, the new Audioslave CD really rocks. Much closer to Soundgarden style than the last, mediocre Audioslave CD.

By Shaun Payne

September 11, 2006 11:41 PM | Link to this

The Grinch,

Just trying to be the Socrates of the David O’Brien blog. The gadfly of Atlanta Braves discussion. The Galileo of the AJC. And any other clever metaphors you can think of.

By The Grinch

September 11, 2006 11:43 PM | Link to this

That’s reasonable. I just think that in spending so much time with numbers you might just be missing some of the fun and excitement surrounding big seasons that aren’t reflected in just stats. Say Kenny Lofton and Mark McGwire both pinch hit one night (a few years ago, obviously) and Kenny hits one just over the right field wall at 335 in a situation that doesn’t matter. McGwire is up in the bottom of the ninth down by one and jacks one 500-feet in a home game that takes them to the playoffs. By your reasoning, neither one did more than the other. By mine, it’s the difference between cheering and jumping up and down vs. shrugging and going to the bathroom. I think numbers are important, but not the only indicator of great players or great seasons. Just my opinion, and not meant to insult.

By David O'Brien

September 11, 2006 11:43 PM | Link to this

Robert, tonight was the most barren I’ve ever seen the clubhouse. Not ONE HITTER came out in the time most of us could wait. We got Smoltz and Cox and went back up to write.

I think they’re all aware it’s just about done now.

By Green Jacket

September 11, 2006 11:44 PM | Link to this

Shaun Payne, how many rbi did bonds have in 2004?

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

September 11, 2006 11:45 PM | Link to this

DOB, seriously, what are these guys saying privately. Do they still think they have a shot at the wild card? Also, what are the chances the Braves are at least considering moving Andruw to get Vernon Wells or Alfonso Soriano either of whom would be better overall than Andruw.

By Shaun Payne

September 11, 2006 11:45 PM | Link to this

David O’Brien,

Maybe it’s the late hour, but if you read my posts, you’ll see that I agree Howard probably is the best candidate for NL MVP. My point was that it’s not a historic season, as TennesseePaul suggests.

Homers and RBI are very context dependent. It’s a remarkable season, but it’s not one of the best ever because this is still a high offensive era. And his on-base percentage/out percentage, while impressive, aren’t anywhere near historic levels; especially when you consider the high offense of the era.

By The Grinch

September 11, 2006 11:48 PM | Link to this

DOB, I thoroughly enjoyed the first Audioslave (though I admit it’s much better suited for driving than at home with headphones); I’ll definitely grab it. I never much liked Rage (my roomate when they came out completely overplayed them, as well as Primus and Cypress Hill), but loved Soundgarden.

By Ptown Bravo

September 11, 2006 11:51 PM | Link to this

When all is right with the world, this is a nasty R-L-R 2007 playoff rotation:

ESPN-ClimateZone projects Hudson to fully acclimate to the heat and humility of his native Georgia in April, 2007. (More sweet tea and peach pie, perhaps.)

A healthy Hampton returning to the rotation is as good a top 3 starter as the Braves could hope to find thru free agency or player trade.

My prediction for HomeDepot: 16-5, 189 innings. Renounces golf. Learns a foreign language. Refuses all media interviews after bar tab dispute with Dave O’Brien.

Obviously, the world is not right.

But after the Marlins wrap up their third WS title in as many chances, and after the Dolphins dedicate their 1st Superbowl win since ‘73 to Dan Marino, and after the Jayhawks fall to the Tarheels in an epic triple OT chamionship game, then there will be, like ghosts through a cornfield, the 2007 Braves reporting for camp.

And where my hero Andruw Jones lands will be one of the mysteries of life. And where everybody’s whippin’ boy, Marcus, turns up is also one of life’s little mysteries.

But this much we do know about 2007: for the price of dirt we will be returning the All-Star caliber triumvirate of McCann, The Roche and Frenchy. For just less than the price of poor soil we retain the rights to The Big Paronto(e) and his stellar seven holds and sub-three ERA, as well as Macay McBride and his Dog Days run of two earned over the last 19+ innings. And I’d be a fool to leave out the best thing to come out of Oregon since Sam Elliott - the scrappy Matt Diaz and his .863 OPS in spot duty.

Of course every team needs a positive veteran presence, and this team’s got two in the infield (hint: they’re the graybeards with the big, shiny rings).

Could’ve been that we had all that and more this year, except for one big omission: The Wickman. And, as DOB and others here have stated all season long, this team has no chance in October without a reliable closer.

So many questions, but none worth asking until Homeboy makes Bob a member of my family, the 2007 Atlanta Braves.

By Shaun Payne

September 11, 2006 11:51 PM | Link to this

Green Jacket,

He had 101 but that’s not what made it an impressive season. It’s the high AVG/OBP/SLG numbers he posted in 617 plate appearances that made it a historic season. Particularly the .609 on-base percentage, which means he only made in out in about 30 percent of his plate appearances. Look at the teams that score the most runs, they are the teams that get more baserunners between outs (i.e., post a high on-base percentage/low out percentage).

Run creation is a product of on-base ability, slugging ability and coming to the plate enough times to make a difference. RBI are a product of how often you come to the plate and if there are a lot of baserunners on for you.

By Stinky

September 11, 2006 11:53 PM | Link to this

Poor SJA. Doesn’t know if he’s a Bad A* or a Candy A*. Is perhaps suffering breakdown? Suggest esteemed SJA eat some cheese. If cheese gets binding, perhaps SJA will stop running off at mouth. Good night SJA. Sleep well.

By Shaun Payne

September 11, 2006 11:57 PM | Link to this

It’s not only in the advanced statistical research, but it’s common sense.

You use up your outs quickly, you don’t score runs. You take a lot of plate appearances to use up outs, you’re going to score runs.

You get outs quickly, you’re going to prevent runs. You allow a lot of plate appearances by the other team before getting outs, you’re going to allow runs.

On-base percentage and the flip side, out percentage, are the most important factors in run production. Are they the only factors? No. But they are the most important.

By Blazer

September 11, 2006 11:58 PM | Link to this

Beltran is the best all around player MVP in NL. Jeter the Best all around player MVP in AL. ADAM LaROCHE should win Gold Glove first base. DOB should win Gold Pen award for his on the minute reporting not only about the Braves but has got me buying CD’s. God Bless America.

By Green Jacket

September 12, 2006 12:02 AM | Link to this

Shaun, how deep into the playoffs did the Giants go in 2004?

By nathan

September 12, 2006 12:02 AM | Link to this

DOB…..did Smoltz say anything about the groin? No silly, not SouthernJackAss’s groin!

By Ptown Bravo

September 12, 2006 12:03 AM | Link to this

Sorry about the short-term memory loss, but I’d like to shout a huge “thanks” out to the blogger(s) on here throwing out The Black Keys recommendation. Never heard of ‘em. Never would’ve guessed. Chulahoma is the best blues album I’ve heard in a long time. If I’m missing out on the ultimate Black Keys album, please advise ASAP. Truly mind-blowing musical artistry, dude.

By Shaun Payne

September 12, 2006 12:04 AM | Link to this

It’s not only in the advanced statistical research, but it’s common sense.

You use up your outs quickly, you don’t score runs. You take a lot of plate appearances to use up outs, you’re going to score runs.

You get outs quickly, you’re going to prevent runs. You allow a lot of plate appearances by the other team before getting outs, you’re going to allow runs.

The best way to think about offense is from a defensive perspective. I want John Smoltz to get three outs as quick as possible. So shouldn’t you want the Braves to prolong making three outs as long as possible?

(Most managers would actually rather waste a lot of their outs with sac bunts.)

On-base percentage and the flip side, out percentage, are the most important factors in run production. Are they the only factors? No. But they are the most important.

By Green Jacket

September 12, 2006 12:06 AM | Link to this

Shaun, that wasn’t my question.

By Shaun Payne

September 12, 2006 12:07 AM | Link to this

Green Jacket,

Playoffs are a different story. Throw out everything except for a high K rate, a good defense and a good closer…maybe. Anything can happen in a five- or seven-game series.

And besides, Bonds is only one player, no matter how great he is.

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

September 12, 2006 12:07 AM | Link to this

This team is so complexing. Just looking on the surface there’s hardly a guy you could look at say, “this guy needs to go”. However, some folks are going to have to be sent packing or not resigned. As much as I like Diaz, he has to go because the leadoff hitter that this team desperately needs will have to play there. Even if Andruw were to get traded, Diaz would still more like have to go because the only place he can play is LF. Giles will also have to leave. Prado is ready to play and will be a solid addition at the bottom of the lineup. While Renteria is dirt cheap, I believe he can bring a lot of value in return and thus he is expendable as well. Escobar may be ready by spring to take over or could even more Prado there and put Aybar at 2B. Honestly, I like the combo of Pena Jr. at SS and Prado at 2B better. Hudson should go as well, but only if we get quality in return and find someone stupid…I mean desperate enough to take him (ie: Red Sox, Yankees, Cardinals, and Dodgers) I think the Red Sox are the obvious choice. Lord is it apparent they need pitching. Don’t be surprised if the Andruw trade isn’t revisited with them. Nixon is a free agent and they could be in the market for an outfielder and Andruw would rake with the Green Monster as a target. A blockbuster trade sending Andruw and Hudson to the Sox for Crisp, Lester, and a top prospect is very possible. While that doesn’t sound like a very equitable trade for the Braves, it would free up quite a bit of payroll and would make the Braves serious players for Soriano or Carlos Lee. Finally, Thorman or B. Pena will be gone as well. I still say approaching the Devil Rays about Crawford is something that has to be done. The Rays need a 1B and Thorman would fill that hole nicely. They have plenty of OFs and with Young seeming to adjust to the majors quite well, it could make Crawford a bit more expendable.

By Green Jacket

September 12, 2006 12:12 AM | Link to this

Shaun, Did they even make it to the playoffs?

By Shaun Payne

September 12, 2006 12:13 AM | Link to this

Green Jacket,

To answer your question the Giants missed the playoffs because they allowed the 11th most runs in the NL.

They scored the 2nd most, by the way, thanks in large part to Bonds.

Hey, I don’t know what your point is but I don’t like the guy either. But the facts are the facts.

By Louis Vales

September 12, 2006 12:13 AM | Link to this

David, As I’ve said before it will be difficult to catch the Marlins with a utility infielder playing center, 4 rookies in their rotation, BOROWSKI as the closer, 14.9 million payroll, no fans, play in a football stadium, no lucrative broadcasting packages, a rightfielder(Atlanta’s own Jeremy) with 5!!! home runs and an “uncanny” command of the strike zone because he is too afraid to swing the bat, A Rule 5 2nd baseman, rookie SS, LF and 1B, Manager of the Year who probably gets fired—-So!!!!!!!!!! How can the financially strapped Time Warner Atlanta Braves with 2!!!players making more than entire Marlins roster possibly compete with the Floundering Fish????

By Robert(Justice Is The Best)

September 12, 2006 12:14 AM | Link to this

Look, winning the playoffs are all about pitching and “smart” offense. Blasting home runs in the playoffs don’t work and never will. The weather is cooler and the ball doesn’t travel as well. I can guarantee you that right now the Yankees are praying for the Twins to win the AL Central and not the wild card because if they win the wild card they will more than likely face the Yanks. The Yanks know that for all their offense it will be just like that last few years and mean nothing. The Twins pitching and ability to play “smallball” are too much for the them. I’m praying for a Twins-Marlins WS. It would be reminiscent of the 1991 WS.

By Shaun Payne

September 12, 2006 12:18 AM | Link to this

Green Jacket,

What does the Giants making the playoffs have to do with whether Bonds’s season was historic?

1920 may have been Babe Ruth’s best season (highest OPS, best on-base pct.). Yankees finished third.

By The Grinch

September 12, 2006 12:22 AM | Link to this

Ptown Bravo, all your scenarios at least fall within the realm of possibility except Kansas and UNC. I hope you’re joking about them and just expressing sentimental favorites…if not, shoot me your e-mail so we can wager. :-) Robert JIB, that’s the first time I’ve ever heard Complex used as a verb. Oddly enough, it seems to work in that context. Webster, make it so.

By Green Jacket

September 12, 2006 12:22 AM | Link to this

What did Bonds do in 2005?

By Shaun Payne

September 12, 2006 12:23 AM | Link to this

Green Jacket,

Would anyone say Babe Ruth’s 1920 season wasn’t historic? I don’t think so. Yankees finished in third place.

I don’t see what your getting at. One player is only worth so much. The best players are worth maybe 10-13 wins.

By Shaun Payne

September 12, 2006 12:26 AM | Link to this

Green Jacket,

He got hurt and/or old and/or came of the juice (maybe) and didn’t do anything. Has nothing to do with the historic 2004 season.

This is going nowhere.

By TheSouthernJackAss

September 12, 2006 12:31 AM | Link to this

Hate to bring this to light, but let’s see who’s chain pulls really easy now—here we go…David O’Brien is not a homosexual!…I repeat, David O’Brien is not a homosexual!!!…

By Kentavo

September 12, 2006 12:35 AM | Link to this

People, please get a grip. The Braves are not signing any free agents in the offseason. Name a free agent they’ve signed in the last few years? John Thomson. That’s basically it. Roster changes will be addressed via trades.

By Louis Vales

September 12, 2006 12:36 AM | Link to this

By the way, Please!!!! give John “Call your Boss A Homeboy and Then Choke Down The Stretch” Smoltz a nice 3 year deal. It will be beyond ironic when that 39 year old abused arm—123 pitch count, thanks Bobby!!—I mean elbow, finally breaks down next year and all of you guys so interested in spending other people’s money start to wail about Bravespayroll. But, John is an honorable man so maybe he says “you know what, I’ve made enough money and I would feel bad about collecting on all of this deal and especially when I know much of it was a loyalty issue so why don’t we split the issue and I’ll give half to charity and I won’t have to feel guilty”—You think he says that?? Huh, do you??

By Green Jacket

September 12, 2006 12:40 AM | Link to this

For soemone to be so dominating one year and then such a nonfactor the next seems rather historic, also. You spoke of an offensive era. This particlular era that Bonds personified might be called the juiced era.

And Bonds isn’t hanging on just to run his walks total up. He’s hanging on to be the homerun king. Chicks dig the long ball. That lone aberation of a season was only enabled because Bonds was a juiced homerun freak.

By Kentavo

September 12, 2006 12:40 AM | Link to this

Oops, forgot about the killer twin free agent signings of Brian Jordan and Raul Mondesi in 2005.

By Louis Vales

September 12, 2006 12:50 AM | Link to this

My last comment—If I return call me out and abuse me. The Greatest Group of Choke Artists in The History of Pro Sports. 50 to 60 years from now baseball historians will look back and wonder how a team could overcome the odds of having 14 chances to complete a task that it seemed like they were highly capable of AND YET they managed, to complete the task ONE LESS TIME than a team that only had TWO chances!! One for the ages and that is how they will be viewed and not as the winner of 14 DIVISION titles. Trust me, Time will judge them much more harshly than Atlanta media.

By The Grinch

September 12, 2006 01:00 AM | Link to this

Louis Vales, point taken. I respect Smoltz’s accomplishments as much as anyone, but the likelyhood of a pitcher his age with five elbow sugeries making much of anything happen over any sort of deal beyond next year with the ridiculous strain Bobby’s continuing to put on him late in the season after he’s already blown games is just, well, unlikely. If they’re not purposely trying to ruin him out of spite before they refuse to exersize their option on him, then their actions are inexplicable. And I’ve said all along I didn’t like him as a person, but I acknowledeged his greatness as a pitcher. But if he’s gonna act like he’s acted and then fail to back it up, well…someone will take a chance and give us something in return before he torpedoes next year (or the year after) by taking the money and underperforming. In a perfect world, we could just eat that scenario in light of his former accomplishments and keep going, but the way things are likely to be financially…

By The Grinch

September 12, 2006 01:02 AM | Link to this

I wholeheartedly disagree with your 12:50 post, though.

By Stinky Smith

September 12, 2006 01:10 AM | Link to this

David O’Brien isn’t a homosexual???

By Ptown Bravo

September 12, 2006 01:10 AM | Link to this

Louis, Time’s gonna go fairly easy on any pro sports team able to win 14 DIVISION titles.

Trust me.

By Ptown Bravo

September 12, 2006 01:19 AM | Link to this

Grinch - so you’ve got Kansas beating UNC? I’m confused.

By Lew

September 12, 2006 01:20 AM | Link to this

ShaunP-Wasn’t Galileo considered a heretic and almost burned at the stake or something? Maybe you are ahead of your time, but I sincerely doubt it. Man, you’ve just got to get a grip with these statistics. If you can make them even remotely say that Howard’s season is anything less than incredibly good, then those stats have absolutely no validity whatsoever. Last week you tried telling us that The Big Red Machine was assemble using Sabremetric principles. Dude, Sparky Anderson probably couldn’t even pronounce Sabremetrics, much less use it as a guiding philiosophy. You should really try just watching a game and having fun for a change. Marvel in those 475 foot home runs the guy is hitting. You know, the ones that would go out in any park in the bigs? Not just in Philly.

By The Grinch

September 12, 2006 01:40 AM | Link to this

Ptown, I thought you said it would be for a championship. I was simply stating they both suck this year and wouldn’t be playing for anything, other than pride. I’ve watched UNC this year (during a channel change) in the first week and they were absolutely terrible against an opponent they should have rolled over (Rutgers). Haven’t payed much attention to Kansas yet (I’m an SEC man); now that I think about it the team I saw playing terribly on sportscenter was K-State, not Kansas, but still. UNC won’t be playing for anything other than “Worst Tar-heel team in a long time” based on what I saw so far, and Kansas has only just beat Louisiana-Monroe and Northwestern State. Holla after either team has done something.

By Tomahawkin

September 12, 2006 01:40 AM | Link to this

Robert, Sho Nuff, I agree about your comments about playing in da playoffs, especially, offensively, I remember David Justice once sayin that it seems like in da playoffs, and 4 every big game 4 that matter, “everything seems to rest on what is done while runners are in scoring position”, I somwwhat like our offense but still we are too inconsistant to be playoff material…But while I think on that our offense was decent, I was our Pitching staff other than Smoltz were our biggest slackers….

Damn Dis Blog is Dead…Cheesewhiz…

Grinch Where U at Baby???

By Tomahawkin

September 12, 2006 01:44 AM | Link to this

Did You Guys See the Wrigley Field South only Crowd at da Ted Tonite??? I love It, Shows the team and among those like Chipper that we don’t put up wit players who sit out for muscle spasms as well as the true fans discontent for the teams lackluster performance this season…

Damn, I got so bored watching the game tonite , I had to watch football….

By journalist jimmy smits

September 12, 2006 01:52 AM | Link to this

wow, DOB, you actually quoted an opposing player in your game story! journalist is stunned, since journalist has never see you do this! oh, the homer-anity! hope bobby and the boys won’t be upset!

By The Grinch

September 12, 2006 01:54 AM | Link to this

T’hawk, I’m there with you baby. Been doin the football thing since Smoltz first started to implode. Good first game but my Raiders looked like A$$ in the second. Proud franchise reduced to rubble. Their offensive line is the worst I’ve seen in a while or San Diego’s pass rush is the best (probably a comination of both)…sad. Wish ol’ Snake Stabler was still around.

By Head Coach

September 12, 2006 01:57 AM | Link to this

Take heart Braves fans , its almost over. The rest of this post is for Die Hard Braves Nuts like myself. The Arizona fall league schedule starts up on October 10th and goes through November 16th with a 32 game schedule. Seven Braves will be playing for the Peoria Javalinas: Joey Devine RP , Anthony Lerew RP , Will Startup LP , Sean White RP , Jarrod Saltalamacchia C , Yunel Escobar SS and Josh Burrus OF. Also , there will be an All-star game the 27th of October , I’m not sure if its televised.

By The Grinch

September 12, 2006 01:58 AM | Link to this

Zimm, that was a cute L.A. Law reference. Unless you meant “The Cisco Kid” with Cheech.

By Tomahawkin

September 12, 2006 01:59 AM | Link to this

Damn Grinch, That Raiders team looked like the braves against the mutts last week… Just emabrassing…

D.O.B. I say pitch to Howard I hope he kills us Its not like we’re still in it, I’d rather him hit 60 and get the M.V.P., Rather than Pujols again…

By The Grinch

September 12, 2006 02:05 AM | Link to this

Yeah, dude, at least the other game was close. Blah! I grew up with the Raiders being my fav. behind the Falcons. Disgusting. As for Howard vs. Pujols; variety is the spice of life. What’s the scene lookin’ like tonight? I’ve kept myself home trying to get some work done (more or less).

By journalist jimmy smits

September 12, 2006 02:12 AM | Link to this

our esteemed DOB is not a homosexual? oh, the homo-anity! there goes journalist’s rationale as to why gorgeous ex-wife dumped DOB! and if DOB is not gay, then journalist must ask: why are DOB and gorgeous ex-wife still friends? journalist posits that lingering attraction must have much to do with pie and toes. god, journalist is boring! somebody please block journalist before journalist posts again!

By The Grinch

September 12, 2006 02:14 AM | Link to this

‘night, all.

By Tomahawkin

September 12, 2006 02:18 AM | Link to this

I’m not out anywhere… I got my swerve on all weekend, gotta get fine tuned for the upcoming dayz…

Why da hell does Andruw keep dropping his shoulders everytime he swings, trying to hit the ball to I-20, all It ends up with is mile high flyouts, I think his back maybe getting to him…

By Tomahawkin

September 12, 2006 02:57 AM | Link to this

Pretty good blog goin on at atlantabraves.com, about the worse brave since 1990…

I’d have to say Reeksma, Kolb, Albie Lopez, Paul Bako and Mondesi…

I dunno why Todd Pratt’s name ended up on there, I like Pratt, best backup since Eddie Perez…

By Tomahawkin

September 12, 2006 02:59 AM | Link to this

Oh yea,… I forgot to mention Homer(Roberto) Hernandez as garbage as well…

By Head Coach

September 12, 2006 03:26 AM | Link to this

I agree with an earlier post. Smoltz , Andruw and Chipper shoud be shelved for the remainder of the season. Bobby should keep trying different lineups and keep evaluating the younger players.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 08:01 AM | Link to this

Green Jacket,

I don’t see what Bonds’s drop off in 2005 has to do with whether 2004 was a “historic” season. He had to declined sometime.

I see your point about steroids, and I do think Bonds used steroids to acheive his results. Ignoring moral judgements about steroid use, the fact remains that no one did anything about steroids. Also, how do we know Bonds’s competition wasn’t using steroids?

But I’ll give you the steroid argument and let’s assume we should discount Bonds’s season (and we probably should discount it some). But my larger argument, that Howard’s season is great but not historic, really has nothing to do with Bonds. Pick any historic season: Babe Ruth’s best season, Mickey Mantle’s best season, Honus Wagner’s best season. Ryan Howard’s just doesn’t rate with those. He still probably deserves the MVP but, for whatever it’s worth, it’s not one of the great seasons ever as some on this blog have suggested.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 08:31 AM | Link to this

Wasn’t Galileo considered a heretic and almost burned at the stake or something? Maybe you are ahead of your time, but I sincerely doubt it. Man, you’ve just got to get a grip with these statistics. If you can make them even remotely say that Howard’s season is anything less than incredibly good, then those stats have absolutely no validity whatsoever. Last week you tried telling us that The Big Red Machine was assemble using Sabremetric principles. Dude, Sparky Anderson probably couldn’t even pronounce Sabremetrics, much less use it as a guiding philiosophy. You should really try just watching a game and having fun for a change. Marvel in those 475 foot home runs the guy is hitting. You know, the ones that would go out in any park in the bigs? Not just in Philly.

Lew,

You’re putting words in my mouth.

Again, I’m not saying Howard’s season isn’t “incredibly good.” Let me repeat myself: Howard probably deserves the MVP; he’s had a great season. All I’m saying is that Howard’s season doesn’t rank with Babe Ruth’s best seasons or Mickey Mantle’s best seasons or Honus Wagner’s best seasons, etc.

And I never said The Big Red Machine was assembled using Sabermetric principles or used it as a guiding philosophy. That’s rediculous. What I said or what I meant was that The Big Red Machine and many other great dynasties from baseball history, in hindsight, could be seen as a embracing (intentionally or not) the abilities that sabermetricians would come to embrace. Almost all great dynasties throughout baseball histories put up high on-base/low out percentages, hit for a lot of power, drew a lot of walks, did not walk many of their opponents, etc.

Whether you want to admit it or not, the skills that sabermetricians appreciate—hitting for power and getting on-base, not walking hitters and allowing few homers, etc.—are the skills that win baseball games, whether winning teams intentionally embrace the philosophy or not. There is a reason sabermetricians embrace the things they do, namely because those things are important to winning games. What do people think that sabermetricians just make up things so that they can be ridiculed and be made to look like fools? If people opened up their minds, maybe they would see that the sabermetric world actually has something to offer. But people would rather be sheep than actually use common sense.

It’s not only in the advanced statistical research, but it’s common sense.

You use up your outs quickly, you don’t score runs. You take a lot of plate appearances to use up outs, you’re going to score runs.

You get outs quickly, you’re going to prevent runs. You allow a lot of plate appearances by the other team before getting outs, you’re going to allow runs.

The best way to think about offense is from a defensive perspective. I want John Smoltz to get three outs as quick as possible. So shouldn’t you want the Braves to prolong making three outs as long as possible?

(Most managers would actually rather waste a lot of their outs with sac bunts.)

On-base percentage and the flip side, out percentage, are the most important factors in run production. Are they the only factors? No. But they are the most important.

By Green Jacket

September 12, 2006 08:42 AM | Link to this

I think I understand sabermetrics now. Walks good. Homeruns and RBI bad.

By Slingin' Sammy Simile

September 12, 2006 08:43 AM | Link to this

This blog is as dead as the Braves playoff hopes. And Shaun Payne’s “runs don’t count” rants are as boring as a Bill James lecture.

And I guess I’m trying to do my part to get rid of the narrow thinking that homeruns, RBI, R, etc. are important offensive stats and trying to get people to recognize context. The most important offensive stats are plate appearances, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and batting average.

Stupidest freaking post EVER.

Runs aren’t an important offensive stat? Shaun, last I checked, the team that scores the most runs wins. Stop outthinking reality.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 08:48 AM | Link to this

Green Jacket,

I’ll never get tired of pulling this link up: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2562

Homeruns great, RBI great. But you can hit a lot of homeruns and drive in a lot of runs and still be a bad hitter. It’s difficult but it’s possible. The article above explains how. Homeruns are dependent on historical context and ballpark and things like that. RBI are dependent on hitters getting on base or on homeruns.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 08:52 AM | Link to this

Slingin’ Sammy Simile,

You are another person putting words in my mouth. Runs are the most important thing in baseball. But you can’t judge individual players by looking at their RBI or R totals because they depend on the other hitters in the lineup; that’s common sense. The most telling stats are plate appearances, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and batting average. Let me post this article one more time because it does a much better job of explaining this than I can:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2562

Oh, and by the way, I don’t think the word “sabermetrics” is used one time in this article.

By Tom A. Hawk

September 12, 2006 08:54 AM | Link to this

So, Shaun, your point is Ryan Howard isn’t as good as Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle or Honus Wagner, all first-ballot hall-of-famers.

WOW! That really opens my eyes to Howard’s deficiencies!

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 08:55 AM | Link to this

Slingin’ Sammy Simile,

I think saying because a player has a lot of RBI he must be a great creator or runs, is the stupidest thing ever.

It may be true and usually is true, but it’s not necessarily true. High run-creating players and teams hit for power and avoid outs.

By Slingin' Sammy Simile

September 12, 2006 09:03 AM | Link to this

Shaun Payne,

You’ve got some brazen gall, dude. Obviously I’m not putting words in your mouth when I’m quoting your own words: And I guess I’m trying to do my part to get rid of the narrow thinking that homeruns, RBI, R, etc. are important offensive stats.

Just face the fact that you’ve argued yourself into a corner. With a big dunce cap, to boot. One post you say runs aren’t as important as at least four other stats. Then you turn around and say that (again, quoting you) Runs are the most important thing in baseball.

Well, Shaun, you don’t know what the hell you’re saying. It’s better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to post your swill and remove all doubt. Give it a try.

By Slingin' Sammy Simile

September 12, 2006 09:09 AM | Link to this

And unlike you (obviously), Shaun, I have a job to get to now. So you just keep arguing, son. You probably should pick something you’re better at to spend all day pursuing, though.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 09:12 AM | Link to this

Tom A. Hawk,

I’m just responding to someone who said Howard’s season is historic merely because of his homerun total. Believe it or not, I wouldn’t be surprised if Howard eventually becomes a Hall of Famer.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 09:16 AM | Link to this

Slingin’ Sammy Simile,

I should have said, “And I guess I’m trying to do my part to get rid of the narrow thinking that homeruns, RBI, R, etc. are important offensive stats when evaluating individual players.”

A players HR, RBI, R totals have little to do with his value in creating runs. If you would use common sense, you’d know that. Again, this article does a better job than I could to explain it:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2562

By Tom A. Hawk

September 12, 2006 09:21 AM | Link to this

I hate to be the one to break it to you, Shaun, but any season in which a player hits 60 home runs is historic. Is it as impressive as Babe Ruth’s 60-homer season? Hell, no. But it’s still pretty damned impressive. At least until Howard’s head grows by Bondsian proportions and we find out there’s a Conte in his closet. Until then, you sound absolutely ridiculous trying to diminish what Howard’s doing. You can’t spin excellence into mediocrity using your esoteric stats. And you’re not impressing anyone. Your crap might fly on the Mets blog, though; try there.

By Ken

September 12, 2006 09:22 AM | Link to this

Commenting on the “cheating” at the top of this blog. Each of those mentioned (Bonds, Sosa, Palmiero, McGuire, etc.} have lost all respect from fans and most other players. When you lose face, it is far worse than an asterisk. They have to live with the fact that the whole world knows they cheated. But give them an asterisk anyway.

By Tom A. Hawk

September 12, 2006 09:31 AM | Link to this

Well, Shaun, if Ryan Howard hits, say, 65 home runs, then he’s created at least 65 runs, right? And that’s an individual stat, isn’t it? How many dinky singles would, say, Willy Aybar have to dunk into the opposite field to create as many runs as Howard? He’s have a better batting average and a higher on-base percentage, for sure, but I don’t need to visit this link you keep posting to know Howard’s the better player.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 09:32 AM | Link to this

Tom A. Hawk,

Yes, it’s historic in the sense that he’ll be one of the most prolific single-season homerun hitters. But it’s not historic as far as creating runs for his team. He’s probably the NL’s MVP but it’s not really close among the best run-creating seasons of all-time.

I’m not trying to “spin excellence into mediocrity using your esoteric stats.” I’m just trying to respond to basically one person who said this was a historic season by using common sense.

Again, this article explains things a lot better than I can:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2562

By Tom A. Hawk

September 12, 2006 09:37 AM | Link to this

Well, Shaun, you’re a persistent little pipsqueak; I’ll give you that.

I’ve got to go, but you can visit the link below if you want to learn more about the argument I’m making:

http://www.shaunpayneisadumbass.com/article.jerk?idiot=666

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 09:45 AM | Link to this

Well, Shaun, if Ryan Howard hits, say, 65 home runs, then he’s created at least 65 runs, right? And that’s an individual stat, isn’t it? How many dinky singles would, say, Willy Aybar have to dunk into the opposite field to create as many runs as Howard? He’s have a better batting average and a higher on-base percentage, for sure, but I don’t need to visit this link you keep posting to know Howard’s the better player.

What’s your point? I’m not arguing Howard’s a bad player or worse than Wily Aybar or anybody else in 2006. I posted a few comments that Howard’s season is not historic in terms of run production. That doesn’t mean it’s not a great, MVP-worthy season. Obviously homeruns are the most valuable offensive weapon, but just because you hit a lot of homeruns or drive in a lot of runs it doesn’t necessarily mean your above average in offensive value. Yeah, it’s difficult to hit a lot of homeruns and drive in a lot of runs and still be below average in run creation, but it’s very possible and has happened quite a few times in baseball history (Howard’s 2006 season is not one of those times and maybe you are misunderstanding me.)

If you won’t click on the article, http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2562, I’ll bring the main points to you:

Counting stats (RBI, HR, runs scored) aren’t very informative because they’re highly context dependent and don’t account for how many outs a player is using up.

Percentage stats are far better than counting stats, but only in the presence of a sizeable data sample (i.e., plate appearances).

Percentage stats are only negligibly influenced by teammates and lineup slotting, but, like all traditional statistics, they are influenced by ballpark and historical era.

Players at the corner positions generally produce better offensive numbers than those players at the more vital up-the-middle positions.

AVG isn’t really useful unless viewed in tandem with OBP, SLG and plate appearances.

And the greatest of these is OBP because it can also tell you how often a player creates outs at the plate.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 09:54 AM | Link to this

It’s funny how when I bring up the fact and a common sense argument that traditional stats like HR, RBI, R are overrated in judging individual players all a lot of people can say is something like “you’re an idiot for thinking that” or “you’re a dummy” or “of course they aren’t overrated.” No one has any arguments against the particular points I’m making or the points that other people are making that back up my stance. It’s funny how people feel so threatened when common sense fails to support their invalid way of thinking.

By David O'Brien

September 12, 2006 10:04 AM | Link to this

SouthernAss, just logged on for first time since leaving ballpark last night. Very disappointed in your response to my and others calling you a weasel, a punk, a picked-on zitface, etc. The ol’ “homo” retort … seriously, dude, that’s the lamest and most desperate of all. Sorry you’re reduced to that.

Smits (aka SJA), your obsession with a certain subject is kind of a red flag, dude. Being such a self-hating, uh, homer, is going to stress you out.

You and SJA, come on by sometimes. Let’s talk.

By Scalp 'em Braves

September 12, 2006 10:04 AM | Link to this

On Ryan Howard - I can’t believe people are cracking on this kid, mincing words over whether he has had a “historic” season, that he makes too many outs, suspected doping, etc. If he was on our team, I doubt these criticisms would be argued. I think he is the real deal (6’5” 250 lbs), with quick hands and a good eye. I don’t know if he can maintain this pace, but I have been awed by his performance since the All Star break. Eventually, I think pitchers are going to learn his weak spots (every hitter has them) and figure out how to pitch him. Any good hitter is going to make a pitcher pay for mistakes (witness Andruw’s 51 dingers last year).

Smoltz - get off this guy’s back people. He has carried this team for years, even going to the bullpen and becoming the one of the best closers in the league (Can’t discount what Gagne was doing for the Bums during that stretch, though he appears to have flamed out for good, and as for the “best closer in the majors”, there was (is) this guy named Rivera for the Yonkees). I wish he would have stayed in the pen, both for his health, and our need for a good/great closer. That his ego, desire, toughness, etc, led him back to the starter’s role, is of no moment. Don’t forget that during our run, Smoltz was THE MAN in the playoffs - had Maddux/Glavine held up their end in post season, we’d have another WS championship or two. His nearly 20 years in the organization, loyalty, hard work and effective pitching has earned him the right to make that call, and to speak candidly about what he thinks is going on, or should be done.

All this bellyaching about what management/Schuerholz/Cox should have done, how badly they screwed up this year, etc., reminds of me of Alabama fans everytime they are down - all they want to do is live in the past, fire the head coach & athletic director, hire the hot college coach du jour (even though none of them wants to come there), replace the quarterback, and dig up Bear Bryant and prop him on the sidelines as if that was going to solve the problems.

I’m not happy about this year, as a LIFELONG Braves fan - I was 8 years old when the Braves moved south, and have been a diehard fan all these years, through bad, and good, times. We didn’t get what we needed this year to keep the run going, and being 5 games below .500, our chances of the WC are slim and none, unless the 6 teams ahead of us spontaneously combust/implode, which isn’t going to happen. Thus, for the remainder of the season, let’s enjoy the GAME of baseball (yes, it is a game, and not life or death), and let the debate about what to do next year begin.

By Lew

September 12, 2006 10:04 AM | Link to this

Shaun-I’m certainly not going to rip you like TomAHawk, but you did denigrate Howard’s season and you did equate the Big Red Machine’s assembly to sabremetric systems. My question is this-Just how did baseball get along before someone coined these terms and wrote books about them. I know people who have been in MLB since the fifties and I guarantee that they do not use this statistical analysis to evaluate their players. Just because you can go back in history and show that successful teams put up the numbers that match your views, doesn’t mean that the analytic system is necessarily the reason. Everyone knows the old adage-Throw the ball, hit the ball, catch the ball. Teams that do this more win games. Breaking it down into smaller pieces and naming the pieces Sabremetrics or Billy Ball doesn’t give them any more credence and doesn’t make the person who clarified the terms any great baseball guy. You’re in essence coming up with a hypothesis and then looking for stats that you already know are there to back up your theories. BA, HR, Runs and RBI’s, Wins, losses and ERA are enough. Be a fan and enjoy yourself. All of this juggling of minuetia (sp?) is going to make Shaun a dull boy. Go with your gut, Dude. I promise you can derive great joy from a HR without going for your tapemeasure. You know the one calibrated in millimeters?

By David O'Brien

September 12, 2006 10:22 AM | Link to this

Ptown, glad you got that Black Keys CD. Most underrated astounding blues-rock band going. Amazing band. And now you’ve got to get their other two best non-covers CDs, Rubber Factory and the Big Come Up. Slightly more rock than the straight-ahead blues of Chulahoma. Equally outrageously great, however.

(timeout, somebody needs to bring up some 8th-9th grade level insults, something far less sophisticated, to bring this conversation back around to a level that SJA and Smits, the special boys, can relate to).

Grinch, why come you think KU-UNC is for sentimental reasons only? KU’s gonna have its top 7-8 players back, including a couple who’ll go in first round of next year’s draft when they come out early, plus they’ve added more McDonald’s A-A’s. They’ll go into season in top 5 of all polls. Not saying they’ll win it, but they’ll be picked as much as anyone except probably Florida, which also has everybody back.

By Ron Roberts

September 12, 2006 10:26 AM | Link to this

Insisting the sky is green when it’s clearly blue to everybody else is a sign of insanity.

Ryan Howard’s hiting .318 with 56 HRs and 138 RBIs this season, and somehow he’s not a good hitter?

Strikeouts? Ya usually can’t hit a ball without swinging a bat,and guess what - sometimes even the best miss the ball. There are 31 teams who’d love to have such a horribly-hitting 1B and only one - the Phillies have him, and they aren’t letting him go.

Seems to me, they think he’s a good hitter.

Thinking anything other than Ryan Howard being a good hitter is lunacy. Sorry. It is.

But then we live in a country led by people who swore Iraq and 9/11 were synonymous, and now say “of COURSE Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11,” so I reckon nothing would surprise me.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 10:29 AM | Link to this

Lew,

Stats have always been used to evaluate catching, throwing, hitting, etc. in some form. Even guys that were around in the 1950’s. All “sabermetrics” or whatever you want to call it has done is taken that evaluation farther in attempt to arrive closer to the truth about player evaluation.

I denigrated Howard’s season in terms of the greatest seasons of all-time, which you can do with a lot of MVP-type seasons because someone yesterday called it historic. My basic point was, yes it’s great but it’s only historic in terms of the high homer total. As a fan, I would give anything for a player like Howard.

Also, I never said successful teams used sabermetrics or whatever to build their teams. I’m not foolish enough to think that you can ignore scouting or that people in the past had the tools we have today to do advanced evaluations on players (in terms of stats and other areas).

But most great teams have a lot of things in common: the ability to get on-base/avoid outs, power, high walk totals, pitchers with low walk and homerun totals, etc. Whether you embrace sabermetrics or not, that’s true. Whether they consciously tried to build their teams this way, it’s true. And if you think about it hard enough, even if you find “sabermetrics” or whatever annoying, you’ll see it’s common sense that those are things that win baseball games.

By Lew

September 12, 2006 10:36 AM | Link to this

Shaun-Isn’t it a bit like inferring God’s existence because someone wrote the Bible? Some of us can appreciate the tree even if we haven’t read someone’s evaluation of the tree, where it came from, how large it is, how long it took to grow, what fertilizer it was given, or how much water it had. It still is an amazing creation, worthy of admiration without the excess analysis. We know someone or something great caused it to exist.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 10:37 AM | Link to this

Ron Roberts,

No one is saying Ryan Howard is not a good hitter. This all started as a response to someone saying Howard’s was a historic season. I posted a few things saying that Howard’s season is not one of the top seasons of all-time in terms of creating runs, but it is a great, MVP-worthy season.

Now a lot of people are misunderstanding me and saying I’m trying to discredit Ryan Howard. I’m not. He’s a great player having a great season. He’s just not having an all-time great season (see my previous posts for my argument why). But you can also pick out a lot of MVP or MVP-type seasons that do not rank among the greatest of all-time. My posts were just a response to basically one person who said this was a historic season.

As far as insisting the sky is green…couldn’t you also say that most people once thought the earth was flat? Did that make anyone who thought the earth was round insane? Maybe. But who was right?

By Ron Roberts

September 12, 2006 10:40 AM | Link to this

He’s within a whiff of the single-season home run record and having one of the top RBI seasons on record, and he’s hitting over .300… yeah, I’ll call it one for the ages.

This is a 2nd-year player doing this, too, in essentially his first full year in the bigs.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 10:41 AM | Link to this

Lew,

Yes, but enjoying a tree is different from saying the scientists or religious people who try to explain the existence of a tree are all wrong.

Enjoying Greg Maddux’s 1995 season has nothing to do with analyzing it and trying to find out/explain why it was so great. They are seperate things.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 10:44 AM | Link to this

Ron Roberts,

Homeruns are great, but they aren’t necessarily that telling of a player’s production value. See my above posts.

Howard’s season is great, but it’s not historically great in terms of creating runs; even if he has a historic number of homers.

Kindof like Roger Maris’s 61-homer season wasn’t as good as Babe Ruth’s great seasons or even lesser homerun seasons, in terms of creating runs.

By Ron Roberts

September 12, 2006 10:44 AM | Link to this

..and by the way, nobody knew for certain the earth was flat or spherical… a vast majority went with what they saw… they presumed, and nobody should pull a trigger based on presumption.

By Ron Roberts

September 12, 2006 10:49 AM | Link to this

He’s on pace to create over 150 runs, and that ain’t great?

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 10:49 AM | Link to this

Ron Roberts,

But don’t most presume that homeruns and RBI are very telling in terms of individual production? That is an incorrect presumption and we have the evidence and common sense to know this is an incorrect presumption. [Click here](http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2562

The earth being flat was an incorrect presumption no matter what you say about how people came to that presumption.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 10:54 AM | Link to this

Ron Roberts,

RBI aren’t the same as runs created. Shouldn’t the guys on base get some credit?

Here you go: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runs_created

By Lew

September 12, 2006 10:54 AM | Link to this

Shaun-Maddux’s season was great because he got lots of people out and gave up very few runs in the process. I can enjoy the fact that his change up has (or had) incredible movement without understanding the underlying physics that give his change up the movement. My wife has her degree in statistics and uses them on a daily basis. She told me that argument with a statstician is a futile endeavore-they will just keep coming up with more statistics to prove their point. I never said that you were wrong, only that you seem to take the whole statistical analysis thing to mega extremes. I don’t think that analyzing all of these stats ad naseum is going to give you any better a team than good baseball knowledge and a lot of gut feeling. Davey Johnson used to use all of the computer analysis and spread sheets and didn’t seem to be any more successful than any other manager. I haven’t seen that using sabremetrics or any other new age statistical format has led to any better baseball. Billy Beane hasn’t won anything.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 10:58 AM | Link to this

Howard’s leads baseball in runs created, but he’s not in the top 100 of all-time. Farther evidence that this is a remarkable season, but not historic.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting?split=0&league=mlb&season=2006&seasonType=2&sort=runsCreated&type=sab&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&state=0&college=0&country=0&hand=a&pos=all http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/RC_season.shtml

By Scalp 'em Braves

September 12, 2006 11:03 AM | Link to this

Guess its time to rename this “Braves Blog” to the “Ron/Shaun Vaule of Statistical Analysis of the Metaphysical Properties of America’s Pastime Blog”. Sheesh, statistics can be twisted/analyzed and trended to support just about any position one wants to advance. While discussion of statistics can be interesting, this has gone too far. We had a crappy season - hope springs eternal for next year in the hearts of true fans.

Scalp ‘em Braves (in 2007)

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 11:05 AM | Link to this

Lew,

I agree. There are certain things you can’t quantify. It’s stupid to ignore scouts or to sometimes ignore your gut. But it’s also stupid to ignore in-depth statistical analysis because stats are an objective truth.

Any yes, stats can be misused and there are stats that are completely useless. But if you are open minded and ask questions, stats can answer a lot of questions.

Most intelligent statistical analysis that I’ve read, don’t use stats to prove their point. Most ask a question and try to arrive at the answer using stats.

By Lew

September 12, 2006 11:09 AM | Link to this

Shaun-The guys on base should get credit for scoring runs.If they score, then it was obvious they were on base.If not for the RBI guy, they would remain on the field twiddling their thumbs. Runs scored and runs knocked in are the offensive stats that are most important. OBP means nothing if you don’t score. How many games have you seen teams lose when they had twice the hits as the winning team? Didn’t the Cubs lose at least one to the Braves this week like that? I would bet that Tony Gwynn had an incredible OBP for his career. I’ll even go look it up if you want. Just how many titles did Tony Gwynn win? His OBP didn’t mean a damn thing without someone batting him in or pitchers keeping runs from scoring. Actually OBP may be one of the least meaningful stats there is. It doesn’t necessarily translate to more runs. Home Runs do.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 11:11 AM | Link to this

Lew,

I know you can’t answer every baseball question with stats, but you can answer many baseball questions using stats.

I’m just using the hard work of other people to back up my stances. But if you think I’m twisting stats to prove my points, go find out for yourself. Read a book like Baseball Between the Numbers and see what you think. It’s more about common sense than stats. I guarantee you’ll come out of it with a better understanding of the game.

By Ptown Bravo

September 12, 2006 11:17 AM | Link to this

Grinch, my apologies for the confusion, but I was talking about NCAA basketball. (Thus, I had Roy’s boys winning it all after the Superbowl in my chronological sports fantasy.)

I had no idea either KU or UNC played Div.1 football. How long has this been going on?

By Lew

September 12, 2006 11:22 AM | Link to this

Shaun-Maybe that’s the point. I already KNOW baseball. I’m 55 years old, have been into baseball since I was a small child, just like most fans. I played organized baseball (not very well), just like most people and I watch an average af 250 games a year. I have done my share of reading on the game, too. Throughout my life, the basic newspaper stats, BA, hits, runs RBI and HR, have been more than adequate to my understanding and appreciation of the game. I have known MLB baseball personnel on a personal level since I was twelve. Most of them form the Phillies organizational hierarchy today. Never once have I heard OBP mentioned. Standing next to the batting cage at Spring Training in Clearwater with Dallas Green and Ruben Amaro,Jr, watching Howard take batting practice in his AA season, not a word was spoken about “Gee, I don’t know. Maybe we need to work on his OBP.” What was said by all was “Damn that kid is gonna be a great hitter”. They were right. I bet no one is questioning his OBP now, either.

By Ptown Bravo

September 12, 2006 11:34 AM | Link to this

DOB, thanks for the Rubber Factory & Big Come UP rec’s. It’s funny (well it’s actually not), but The Black Keys played here in Ptown this last Thursday. I saw the promo ad in the local paper on Friday (recognized the name from Braves and The Man in Black Blog) and bought Chulahoma that day to hear what I’d missed.

By Lew

September 12, 2006 11:43 AM | Link to this

Shaun-You do realize that it’s a slow day, the Braves are out of it and it’s much more fun arguing with you than trading barbed insults with a bunch of Neanderthals, don’t you?

By Emily Litella

September 12, 2006 12:01 PM | Link to this

Why in the world is this blog so obsessed with sabremetrics. I mean, men have been obsessed with this since the dawn of time. Manhood should not measured by the length of one’s sabre. A man’s character is much more important. And how much money he makes. And if he can cook. Grow up bloggers.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 12:06 PM | Link to this

Lew,

Even at 55, I’m sure you will agree that you can always learn more about the game.

I’m sure hitting coaches don’t talk about on-base percentages (or any other stats for that matter). But I guarantee they talk about laying off bad pitches and only swinging at what you can handle. All this is to try to help the hitter avoid making an out which is the same thing as getting on-base. Maybe a better name for on-base percentage would be avoiding-out percentage because that’s a better way to look at it.

And Runs and RBI are “important” because runs are the name of the game. However, a player can’t drive in runs without baserunners. And a baserunner can’t scored without somebody hitting him it. And if a runner gets on and Jacque Jones drives him in instead of Derek Lee, does that mean Jones is the better hitter?

You have to have baserunners (keeping in mind homeruns count in the on-base percentage stat) to score runs. There is no other way to do it. Hits are great, but sometimes a walk is just as good as a hit and one-base percentage takes into account walks and hit-batsmen. On-base percentage is the measure of avoiding outs. I would guess that the Braves had more walks or more total bases than the Cubs in that game.

And I realize it also matters when you get a hit, but that’s largely chance. There’s no evidence of an innate ability to hit better with runners in scoring position. Given enough chances I’m sure Chipper Jones would put up the same AVG/OBP/SLG numbers with runners in scoring position and without anyone on base. You want to fill your lineup with guys that get on base so your power hitters can drive in two, three, four runs at a time.

By Green Jacket

September 12, 2006 12:13 PM | Link to this

Emily, Sabremetrics is actually a statiscal model used to explain the importances of baseball players being selective about the pitches they swing at.

By Emily Litella

September 12, 2006 12:14 PM | Link to this

Oh. Never mind.

By journalist jimmy smits

September 12, 2006 12:15 PM | Link to this

the great DOB acknowledges journalist! oh, the honor-ity! journalist never believed it possible that the esteemed DOB could be provoked into a response by the pathetic schoolyard kid the great DOB obviously took great joy in tormenting in his great tanned youth! journalist, however, cannot possibly meet the great DOB on the great DOB’s turf and re-subject journalist to those childhood torments. oh, the humanity! emotionally scarred journalist will have to cower in the relative safety of cyberspace and leave it to the SJA to avenge journalist’s shame by kicking DOB’s Nazi schoolyard a-s-s! oh, the hee-haw-ity! post, please, SJA, when the noble deed is done!

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 12:20 PM | Link to this

Green Jacket,

http://dictionary.reference.com/search?q=sabermetrics&x=0&y=0

By Lew

September 12, 2006 12:30 PM | Link to this

Shaun-Yes, a player can drive in runs without a baserunner. He can hit a solo Home Run. Doing this he is credited with a run and an RBI. Production A baserunner, however, must count on another hitter to drive him in, unless he can steal 3 bases. This does not necessarily equal production. Apples and oranges, Dude. Talk later, lunch calls.

By Green Jacket

September 12, 2006 12:32 PM | Link to this

Oh. Never mind.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 12:34 PM | Link to this

Lew,

Keep in mind homeruns count in on-base percentage. Every hit, walk and hit-by-pitch counts in on-base percentage. So now tell me how you can score a run without somekind increase in on-base percentage?

An error is about the only way, but how many errors do you see? Maybe one a game? And how often do errors lead to a run? Maybe less than one time a game, on average?

By Green Jacket

September 12, 2006 12:35 PM | Link to this

Payne, How many homeruns did Bill James hit in his best season?

By Hall of Fame for Those With Way Too Much Time on Their Hands

September 12, 2006 12:40 PM | Link to this

First inductee elected: Shaun Payne, unanimously.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 12:43 PM | Link to this

Green Jacket,

You know what, you’re right. Bill James can’t know anything about baseball because he never played. How can John Schuerholz become a GM? He never played. No wonder he’s never won anything.

By Emily Litella

September 12, 2006 12:45 PM | Link to this

Jimmy Smits, Loved you in Hill Street Blues.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 12:45 PM | Link to this

I really should be working.

By Stinky Smith

September 12, 2006 12:47 PM | Link to this

journalist jimmy smith rode the short bus

By The Grinch

September 12, 2006 12:50 PM | Link to this

Ptown Bravo, I feel like a total moron; it wasn’t until DOB’s post a little earlier I realized you were talking basketball. My bad, dude. I live and breathe football, and both of those teams have been playing D-1 football for quite a while (sometimes they’re even halfway decent, though rarely great). Both have been playing football since the late 19th century, about as long as the Dawgs. I really don’t know squat about basketball, other than I suck at it.

By Green Jacket

September 12, 2006 12:58 PM | Link to this

Payne, Actually, Schuerholz has two World Series rings. One came as the result of a horrible call that robbed the Cardinals of the 1985 World Championship. The other came in a strike shortened season that had the statistically superior Indians hiccuping at the most inoportune time. He has also lost a lot more post season series than any other GM in history. How does that stack up, statistically?

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 01:02 PM | Link to this

Green Jacket,

I’m not sure what you mean but “statistically” Schuerholz stacks up among the best GM’s of all-time, if winning means anything. Kindof hard to measure a GM’s performance except for winning.

By Bravo Nam

September 12, 2006 01:03 PM | Link to this

It’s hard to believe that all the discussions about SPs and bullpen guys, no one has mentioned Gonzalez of the Pirates. Not one blown save this year. He would be a perfect set up man for Wickman. The Pirates have a need at just about every position, so a deal could get done. The one thing the Braves have lacked this year is consistency, and Gonzalez brings that.

There has been a lot of speculation about AJ getting traded in the winter. I think there is certainly merit in that, but he will only be traded if he agrees to it. DOB- can you give any insight on this issue- under what circumstances, if any, would AJ agree to a trade?

By Green Jacket

September 12, 2006 01:12 PM | Link to this

Payne, lots of GMs have had multiple winning seasons. How many have put together genuines dynasties? Not JS.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 01:20 PM | Link to this

Green Jacket,

How many GM’s have been in charge of teams that have finished third place or higher every year of a long career except for one, 1990, maybe two if the Braves can’t move up this year?

By Robert

September 12, 2006 01:26 PM | Link to this

Ron Robets, John Smoltz isnt the reason the Braves arent in the thick of the wild card race

Try singing this to the tune of “Take Me Out to the Ballgame”

There’s a donkey in the dugout His name is Bobby J Cox So long as the onager sits on the pine In October the Braves will lose time after time

Division titles dont matter His playoff record is lame So it’s 1-2-3 FIRE COX Get the Braves back into the game!

By Head Coach

September 12, 2006 01:28 PM | Link to this

Andurw Jones will be in the last year of his contract , obviously. I think he will work his butt off this offseason and do his best to have a career season in 2007. If the Braves dont contend in 2007 , he is gone. If they do contend , he is still gone. The only thing that will prevent him from leaving via trade or free agency is a contract extension before the 2007 season starts.

By Scalp 'em Braves

September 12, 2006 01:32 PM | Link to this

Bravo - Gonzalez’s name was floated here a few days ago as a great set up man. I forget who first mentioned his name, but I seconded his suggestion. I wonder if Thorman or Diaz would be enough to get him, or if it might take more?

Dave- will McCann reach the required number of AB’s to be considered in the race for BA champion? He’s down 10 points to Cabrera, 9 points behind Sanchez, so its a possibility, if he keeps up his steady hitting, and they fall back a little bit. Even if he doesn’t finish first, I would like to see him get recognition for a great year of the plate, in spite of his injury.

By beachcomber

September 12, 2006 01:34 PM | Link to this

Fellow Brave fans. If you haven’t read it, go to the USA Today site and read the piece by Dave Lopresti on the Braves run. It gives those of us perhaps too close to the situation some perspective on what a great ride we’re enjoyed.

By Shaun

September 12, 2006 01:40 PM | Link to this

Yeah, fire Cox! Everyone knows he can’t win, especially with teams that aren’t expected to. And Schuerholz, too. Who needs a GM that has won virtually every year of his career? Winning? What’s the big deal about winning?

By wg

September 12, 2006 01:59 PM | Link to this

DOB. I agree on avoiding Howard, but I have been to see the Bs in Philly each of the last 3 years and no one can say they should pitch to Utley. He absolutely destroys them. That leaves you with 7 guys in the lineup to deal with. What an enormous let down from Smoltz in his last 3 games. All talk and no action is extremely disappointing. The bloom is coming off the rose. This from an unabached Smoltz fan.

By TennesseePaul

September 12, 2006 02:17 PM | Link to this

Payne: Sorry I didn’t get back on here last night to respond to all those posts. But I don’t think I need to go too deep into this one… Babe Ruth, Roger Maris, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Ryan Howard. Now, get rid of the suspected ones… Babe Ruth, Roger Maris, Ryan Howard. Baseball is 140 years old. There have been over 55,000 players in baseball history. Only 5 have done what he is about to do. None of those 5 did it in their first full season, making him the only one in history to do what he is about to do. Preach on about the OPS and all the other stuff, but that doesn’t change the fact that hitting 60 in a season is an amazing thing to do. Especially in the “post-roid” era. It’s Historical.
However, Pujols would be right there with him in homerun totals had he not been injured. Pujols is amazing. But Howard is having the eye popping season. He should win the MVP. If they give it to that Met, I’ll have to resume egging Buds house.

By Payne

September 12, 2006 02:33 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

I agree that what Howard is doing is amazing. But as far as all-time great run creating seasons, it’s not among the best. Homeruns are just one aspect of offense and that’s really the only historic number he’s putting up. All of his numbers are very impressive, both his “sabermetric” and “traditional” stats, but only the homerun total is truely historic.

By Payne

September 12, 2006 02:43 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

Creating runs is more than just hitting homeruns.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Runs_created

Howard has done a better job at creating runs than anyone in 2006, but he hasn’t done it at historic levels. Mainly because his on-base and slugging numbers are not really at historic levels.

By Tom A. Hawk

September 12, 2006 03:22 PM | Link to this

Pssst … everybody … you think Shaun Payne’s gone yet?

Nah … better lay low a whole longer.

His worthless posts are certainly at historic levels today.

By TennesseePaul

September 12, 2006 03:23 PM | Link to this

Payne: Not all stats have to create runs. It’s a baseball feat. Howard is doing something no one has done before. And, if you haven’t noticed, there isn’t the lore and aura around the all time single season SLG % or OBP % or OPS. At least, I don’t recall any player ever starting a season with the hopes of topping those stats. The batting average may not be the best overall tool for player evaluation, but that doesn’t mean every player out there wouldn’t be extactic about winning a batting title. Home runs don’t create all the runs, but that doesn’t mean that the players don’t aim for a home run title. RBI’s might depend on the rest of the team, but that doesn’t mean the players are aiming for the RBI title. I am still not convinced that what Howard is doing is neither significant nor historical.

Let me ask you this, do you like hitting streaks, or streaks in general?

By Salty

September 12, 2006 04:00 PM | Link to this

So…tonight’s game will be made up…when? The radar looks nasty…rainy night in GA.

DOB
It’ll be a good nite for random topics…I like reading the music input, although some is out of my realm.

By Green Jacket

September 12, 2006 04:26 PM | Link to this

Payne, just keep on going on this blog, ok. The new blog has a new topic.

By JCB

September 12, 2006 04:26 PM | Link to this

Hey DOB, I dont know if anyone has asked you this or not, but have you ever heard of Ray Lamontagne? do you like him or not? If so, have you heard his new CD? I think its pretty good. Especially love the song ‘Empty’

By Shaun Payne

September 12, 2006 05:31 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

It’s only historical in the sense that it’s one of the high homerun totals of all-time. There isn’t the lore and aura around the single season OBP and SLG records, but most historians agree that the highest OBP and SLG seasons are also the greatest seasons.

Records in general don’t mean too much to me because all records are subject to context (there’s that word again). Even OBP and SLG are subject to context because some eras are high offensive eras and some eras are low offensive eras. Records really don’t tell us anything about context. Sure, they might and sure they may be impressive, but you really have to dig a little deeper to understand what some numbers mean on the surface.

Is it more impressive for Honus Wagner, a shortstop to post these numbers in 1908, the middle of the dead-ball era:

.354 AVG/.415 OBP/ .542 SLG

…or is it more impressive for Ryan Howard, a firstbaseman, to post these numbers in 2006, a high offensive era (keep in mind homerun and run scoring numbers have remained pretty consistent since 1998):

.316 AVG/ .413 OBP/ .682 SLG

…I’ll take the former.

By Shaun Payne

September 12, 2006 05:40 PM | Link to this

There isn’t the lore and aura around the single season OBP and SLG records, but most historians agree that the highest OBP and SLG seasons are also the greatest seasons.

Well, intelligent historians look at OBP and SLG and other things relative to a players league and ballparks and a players position (firstbasmen are going to hit better than shortstops), etc. And most historians judge a player’s greatness in a single season based on where they rank when taking context into consideration.

By Ron Roberts

September 12, 2006 06:45 PM | Link to this

Shaun,

Do you have a job? You’ve been in here disagreeing with most folks about Ryan Howard’ season all freaking day?

C’mon dude. Go out and get some fresh air and some natural light on your skin, man.

Slinging stats and cooking ‘em up, and “sabrematics” and such… the dude’s hitting nearly .320, with 56 homers and 138 RBIs… it’s an exceptional season, period. One of the best batting seasons in recent history, pure and simple.

By TheSouthernJackAss

September 12, 2006 07:19 PM | Link to this

The statistician spends his days, In figuring out the many ways, In which a standard error can, Enclose by bars the average man.

And having thus imprisioned him, Perhaps at some researcher’s whim, Can with the same chicanery, Enlarge the bars and set him free.

Or better yet, within the sample, Locate some points with girth so ample, That if by “choice” they were discarded, Man and hypothesis are safeguarded.

Quothe TheSouthernJackAss evermore!…

By dadgum

September 12, 2006 07:40 PM | Link to this

I posted this on Guy’s blog but will repost here. Please indulge. By the way Northern Mississippi All stars were not on YouTube:

Journalist Jimmy….couldn’t agree more as I mentioned last week in a prior blog. Smoltz needs to be shut down. A player is a player is a player. He ain’t shutting himself down. It may fall hard on his ego but the reality is that if the Braves really want to do the right thing for this team heading into the offseason it will be to rest Smoltz early so as to give him a head start into the off season and fewer innings to boot. Obviously something he isn’t used to over the last 15 years.

The truth is that Smoltz has definitely hit the wall. I mean look bad once and we can live with it but look bad three times in a row well, given the situation, it is time to shut her down. Basically Davies can do the same thing Smoltz has done and we need to get extended looks at other pitchers. Also other teams need to look at us as well for trade possibilities.

If the Braves continue to pitch Smoltz then I have to wonder about their decisions. Also nothing wrong with resting McCann more either. They can easily catch Pena, Pratt and hell even Salty if they bring him up. McCann has more injuries that are nagging than he will ever admit. Others may be in the same boat. Time to do the right thing Braves. GET ER DONE!

By journalist splinter dick

September 13, 2006 12:26 AM | Link to this

So where is DOB hidin’?

By Shaun

September 13, 2006 08:17 AM | Link to this

Final Comments on Ryan Howard

I would love to have Ryan Howard on my team. He is having an outstanding season. The reason I’ve been “disagreeing” with people is because I basically responded to one person who posted that his season was historic. My basic point is that it depends on how you define historic.

My view was that it is historic only in the fact that he is hitting a huge amount of homeruns. Yes, it is a remarkable season, and he looks like the clear MVP. In fact if they voted just one MVP for both leagues, he’d probably win it. But I disagree that it is “historic” in terms of run/win production compared to the top 50-100 or so individual seasons in baseball history. But, really, who cares? As long as a player is helping you win.

Homeruns are the best offensive weapon, but they are only one aspect of offense. And hitting 60 homers today isn’t the same as hitting 60 homers in 1987.

…That was my point. I’m sorry if I offended anyone sensibilities, but stop being enthralled by the homerun. And please stop ignoring context!

By TennesseePaul

September 13, 2006 03:57 PM | Link to this

Payne: Still doesn’t make since. If you ignore context, then you can rightfully say “hitting 60 homers today isn’t the same as hitting 60 homers in 1987” The context of today is overshadowed by the roid era and the fact that three guys danced and partied on the 60 homer line for several years in a row. Now, put it in context, this is the post roid era of drug free ball (at least more so than the 90s) and he’s doing something that hasn’t been done for a long long time in an untainted perspective.

Your point was basically semantics, which it has been for every post you’ve put up. You qualify them all by using stats which have little historical reference. That is to say, the way you are analyzing players is not the way they were analyzed 10 or 20 years ago. The history of baseball is built on a bedrock of stats which you have repeatedly rejected, or pushed aside as not important to player evaluation… HR, W, L, ERA, RBI, AVG, Streaks, etc. Howard is having an historical year in every way except for the new Bill James formula for evaluating players in your rotisserie league.

You can use them all you like. I have no issues with it. But you can’t deny that Howards season is not historical. Accept that. Then, go back and get all the historical seasons and rank them in order anyway you like. Use a sabremetric formula, user Player bias, use team bias, use era bias, whatever. That’s what discussing baseball is about. But that doesn’t change the significance of what Howard is accomplishing this year. And on that note, I would aggree, if you line all the historical seasons up by the Runs Created and Win Shares columns, Howards isn’t at the top. But those aren’t the only columns that matter.

By David

September 13, 2006 05:07 PM | Link to this

The Ryan Howard Quandry is a little disconcerting. How do we know that Howard is free from steroids? He could be using steroids invisibly or transparently and noone really knows or his tests keep coming up negative to ‘roids. It is true that Howard is having a gargantuan season, similar to Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds, Sammy Sosa or Mark McQuire or someone in that calibre, but to say we are sure he is clean, I would never make that statement. Remember Rafael Palmerio (Mr. Clean) who for decades declared his spotlessness for never using ‘roids. Palmerio even denied using ‘roids in front of Congress and came back with a positive steroids test on his next go-round. Palmerio couldn’t even come up clean on a steroids test, so why should we believe Howard is squeaky clean. I think that the truth lies in Hose Canseco’s book where he claimed that 80% of all major leagers are using steroids. I believe that Hose should run for president because he unlocked the shackles that ‘roids have had on our favorite pasttime for decades. “Hail to Hose” for uncovering the truth!