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Monday, September 11, 2006
The Ryan Howard quandary
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
With increased steroid testing and the declining health of Barry Bonds, few of us imagined we’d see a Bonds-ian caliber season from a hitter anytime soon.
But what Ryan Howard is doing comes a lot closer than could ever have been anticipated _ and, in case anyone’s wondering, there’s been absolutely no reason to suspect he’s using HGH, for which there is no test. He’s just a big dude, always has been, but with normal proportions.
He doesn’t have the Popeye arms, size-8 head, zits, hair loss or freakish shoulders or triceps we’ve seen on so many others suspected of ‘roid and HGH use.
The fact that Howard, who comes to town Tuesday with the Phillies for another make-or-break series for the Braves, is doing what he’s doing in his first full season is astounding and just about off the charts.
The softspoken, big stick-wielding kid — if 26 can be considered a kid — is batting .316 with 56 homers, 138 RBIs and a .413 on-base percentage. The batting average and OBP are particularly impressive given that he’s struck out 156 times in 519 at-bats (in that regard, he can’t compare with the best seasons of Bonds and Pujols, as disciplined and difficult to strike out as any power hitters in recent vintage).
Lately, Howard has been on an utterly Ruth-ian run (nevermind Bonds). He’s batting .528 (28-for-53) with 12 homers and 24 RBIs in his past 16 games, and .374 with 28 homers and 67 RBIs in 56 games since the break.
And don’t even start in saying the bandbox stadium in Philly being the main factor for his explosion — Howard is hitting for a higher average (.327 to .305) with exactly the same number of homers (28) on the road as at home, and in four fewer games. In his past 30 road games, he’s hit .383 with 17 homers, 44 RBIs and a .493 OBP.
Explain that.
He has a very good chance of going from NL Rookie of the Year in 2005 to MVP in 2006. The more writers (voters) I talk to, the more who are leaning toward him in recent weeks.
How ‘bout this one: In 247 career games and 870 at-bats, Howard has a .305 average with 80 — EIGHTY! — home runs, 206 RBIs and a .390 OBP despite 269 strikeouts. In close-and-late situations, he has a .300 career average (45-for-150) with 16 homers and a .432 OBP.
His career on base-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) is 1.026. Bonds has a 1.051 career OPS and Pujols has a 1.045. Again, this is the end of Howard’s first full season in the majors.
The question: Should the Braves pitch to him, or pitch around him and take their chances with other Phillies hitters, including the skidding Pat Burrell?
Bobby Cox has been known to pitch to the likes of Bonds and Howard more than most managers. Others have begun to walk Howard in unorthodox situations, showing him the ultimate respect that Bonds commanded.
Should the Braves, who could be 4-1/2 games behind wild-card leader San Diego if they get a strong start from Smoltz tonight and complete a sweep of the Cubs, concede that Howard is too tough for the likes of Kyle Davies (not to mention Tim Hudson, who goes in Game 2) to face?
Hudson tried pitching to him last week, and results were, well, not good. Three homers in one game off Hudson, you may recall. During the 2005-06 seasons, Howard has hit .429 with 10 homers and 25 RBIs in 23 games vs. Atlanta.
Might be time to wave the white flag to the big man and take your chances with anybody and everybody else in the Phillies’ lineup.
