Braves

By David

September 5, 2006 12:32 PM | Link to this

I don’t understand why people thought James would be anything other than an ace. His numbers were better than Liriano’s last year and frankly should have been in the rotation all along (albeit that’s 20/20 hindsight). He’s an assassin on the mound, fearless and brimming with confidence.

By Georgetown Kid

September 5, 2006 12:38 PM | Link to this

Mr. O’Brien,

I too am a huge fan of Chuck James. The kid simply gets people out. How he escaped notice while he was in the minors is unfathomable to me. In over 60 minor league starts, he had an ERA under 2.2. So he is doing to major league hitters what he did to minor leaguers, getting them out.

That being said, wouldn’t James command a king’s ransom in a trade? With Hampton and Hudson being un-movable, and with HoRam having limited trade value due to injuries, and with Davies being so mediocre, James has become our most liquid commodity.

With the big spenders (Yankees, Mets, Sox, et al) in desperate need of starting pitching, James would be worth his weight in gold to them. For not only is he very good, but as you mentioned in your blog, he is very cheap.

If a team was willing to sell the farm to us in exchange for James, shouldn’t we consider it?

James could give us our leadoff hitter plus some middle relief help.

So while I would love to have Chucky in a Braves uniform for a long time, I do hope that JS does some shopping.

Just a thought.

By hk

September 5, 2006 12:44 PM | Link to this

… here’s the hitter’s ‘MVP’ through last night, including Betemit’s numbers (starting most of the time) … comparison, Braves vs LA performance, .281/.279 avg, .344/.331 obp …

Year End..Runs..Homers..RBI’s..MVP..Last

Andruw…..99…..38…..127…264…265

Frenchy….88…..28…..110…226…229

LaRoche….90…..33…..101…223…215

Chipper….93…..27……93…214…210

Renteria..106…..14……69…189…188

Giles……92…..11……60…163…171

McCann…..57…..19……80…156…161

Betemit….52…..20……54…127…121

Langy……46……8……32….86….87

Team Average……………….178…179

click here for chart

By David O'Brien

September 5, 2006 12:47 PM | Link to this

Sorry, I don’t get that reasoning at all. You’ve got a kid who could be a dirt-cheap ace for the next few years, and affordable for five years, and you want to trade him to fill other needs. Then you open a huge need in the rotation, especially after Smoltz is done or becomes unaffordable (possibly) after next season.

Unless you’re the Yankees, teams almost never trade promsing young starters who are already producing in the majors. You hang on to that most valuable commodity. You trade Giles if you must, you listen to offers for Andruw if you can’t re-sign him, but you don’t trade a guy who could win 15-18 games at under $400,000. No way.

By Georgetown Kid

September 5, 2006 12:47 PM | Link to this

Mr. O’Brien,

Another quick question:

I saw that Lerew was sent back to Richmond. What are people saying about that kid?

I saw him pitch in Richomd recently, and he was a man amongst boys. Does the organization have high hopes for him as a future starting pitcher, or does he not really figure into their future plans?

He certainly looked pretty lousy in Philadelphia.

By David O'Brien

September 5, 2006 12:48 PM | Link to this

Or at least under $500,000. He’ll make somewhere between $400,000 and $500,000 next season.

By David O'Brien

September 5, 2006 12:52 PM | Link to this

Lerew is a man among boys _ at Triple-A, a league that contains a lot of aging former prospects, a few current prospects, and a lot of roster filler.

He’s got to work on the mental approach, big time. has the stuff, but means little at the big league level if you don’t have the mentality. He’s got a lot of work to do.

have no idea where or if he fits into their future, but they’re not counting on him anytime soon, that’s for sure. wouldn’t surprise me if he were traded, but wouldn’t surprise me if he were at spring training competing for a spot, either.

By Dark Helmet

September 5, 2006 12:55 PM | Link to this

DOB,

As a native Atlantan living in Boston, just wanted to let you know how much I love the blog. Don’t get to see many games up here (although all the “Sex and the City” reruns are really special). Don’t get much sweet tea either. But the winters are wonderful.

Anyways, I was wondering why Bobby didn’t let Chucky finish the game out last night. I know we tacked on a run by pinch hitting for him, but it seems like a 4-run cushion was big enough. And a complete game 1-hitter against the Mets would’ve been nice for Mr. James.

By TennesseePaul

September 5, 2006 12:56 PM | Link to this

DOB: Nice post. This thing loads so fast now. Brilliant. I don’t think trading James would be a good move. I’d demand a lot in return to get him, but I like having a young quality ace. Sending him away and then trying to rely on Hudson again sounds scary. Besides, you couldn’t trade James and get someone back as good as James and be major league ready, which is what we need. I say keep him. He’s kicking @ss and takin’ names.

GO BRAVES

By Georgetown Kid

September 5, 2006 12:56 PM | Link to this

Mr O’Brien,

Thanks for responding so quickly.

And I wasn’t advocating a trade of James. But I was simply wondering if James could be flipped into an all-star leadoff hitter.

With a bonafide leadoff man who can steal bases at the top of the Braves lineup, our offensive potential would improve considerably.

And if Davies and Lerew were to improve, and if they were ready to start next year, starting pitching would be a position of considerable depth.

I don’t think James should be aggressively shopped, but if a team were willing to give us an all-star leadoff man in exchange for James, with some middle relievers thrown in, that would be a hard deal to pass up.

But again, I am just thinking out loud. James looks like a stud, and I completely agree with your post.

By David

September 5, 2006 12:59 PM | Link to this

David, I have a more arcane question for you. Let’s say that the Red Sox had made the Andruw trade with Lester as one of the pieces. If the cancer had been discovered this long after he got here, would the Braves have had the right to ask for different compensation? To have the deal rescinded?

I realize that this is a trivial issue in a very depressing situation. I can’t recall a similar series of events ever happening before, however, so it left me wondering what the MLB rule would be in such an event.

By flbravesgirl

September 5, 2006 01:00 PM | Link to this

It is kind of strange that there was so much fanfare about Davies but no one seemed to pay attention to Chucky even though he had excellent minor league numbers. Maybe it’s a Francouer/McCann situation where the more “flashy” player ( and I don’t mean that in a derogatory way) gets all the build-up. Most Braves fans hadn’t even heard of Mac before his call-up last June but we’d heard plenty about Frenchy. I think Francouer will be a great player and Davies may well turn out to be a really good pitcher but Mac and Chucky are really good now.

By David O'Brien

September 5, 2006 01:02 PM | Link to this

Dark Helmet, thanks. Dropkick Murphys rock.

As for why he took James out, probably because he’d only thrown more than seven innings once all season, and never more than eight, and because he’d already thrown 108 pitches and hadn’t thrown more than 111. But most importantly, he noticed a lot of balls getting hit hard and deep, and figured it was a good time to get him out and have him feel really good about a great performance. Also, switch-hitting Reyes was the second guy up in ninth, and lefty hitters have given Chuck some trouble.

McBride did strike out the side in the ninth, so it’s kinda hard to question the move a day later, isn’t it?

By 22oz

September 5, 2006 01:08 PM | Link to this

How can you not like Chuck? Its so fun to yell Chuck! when he comes up, just like its fun to yell Pete! when Pete Orr comes up. Chuck’s a pitcher for the blue collar man, he gets its done with what he’s got.

I do, however,agree with what Joe Simpson said last night, he will need a breaking ball to keep it up.

By Georgetown Kid

September 5, 2006 01:11 PM | Link to this

By the way, it sure sucks that we picked up Ward in exchange for an injured relief pitcher who struggled in A-ball.

It sure sucks to have a top-notch pinch hitter who come through in clutch situations.

It sure killed our future to give up on a pitcher with a 4.50 ERA in A-ball.

I wish Dave O’Brien had the guts to stand up to the Braves spin-masters when they announced that trade.

By Shaun Payne

September 5, 2006 01:11 PM | Link to this

KC and Tennessee Paul,

To continue our discussion, a good ERA doesn’t necessarily mean a good pitcher. True Maddux posting a 1.63 ERA was impressive. Yeah, it’s virtually impossible for a bad pitcher to post a very low ERA but it’s possible at least in theory. Usually ERA fools you when your talking a pitcher that posts a good ERA not a great one.

If a pitcher posts an ERA around 3.00 over 230 innings, he may be a good pitcher or a bad pitcher. It depends on context.

If there’s one thing to learn about stats it’s that you must pay attention to context. I think that’s why a lot of people choose to ignore stats and criticize people who study stats: they are too lazy to understand context and they don’t understand that most intelligent people who study stats also study context and which stats are important and why.

ERA is not necessarily unreliable. It’s an okay indicator of pitcher performance but it’s not great. Unreliable is probably too strong a word.

By Carolina Lady

September 5, 2006 01:15 PM | Link to this

DOB, love your sense of humor! Good post, good job. Are we taking odds on whether the game will be broadcast or not?? :-))

Has anybody seen NLChamps in the last 24 hours?? Hmmmm.

That game last night tickled me pink! Hope Smoltz can show ‘em again tonight! :-))

(ungrateful heatherns, indeed!) :-)))))

By Ken

September 5, 2006 01:24 PM | Link to this

I love the Braves and realize this is a Braves blog, but last week when DOB mentioned best Monday songs, did anyone mention “Come Monday” by Buffet? Good tune. 4 lonely days in a brown LA haze would have to suck.

By flbravesgirl

September 5, 2006 01:26 PM | Link to this

CL, I’m still trying to figure out the broadcast for tonight. TBS, AJC and my on-screen guide all say TBS so I’ll try that first.

DOB, loved the description of Chuck. “Devious smile”, lol. He does have that impish, “I know something you don’t” look.

By KC

September 5, 2006 01:32 PM | Link to this

DOB, I agree with you that it’s very unlikely that James will be moved back to the bullpen. But if Davies seriously impresses the rest of the month… I think there might be a very slight possibility of that happening temporarily. If James were to pitch out of the pen again (which again, I agree is unlikely) it would not be as a situational lefty, but as a 7th inning guy of something like that.

It is far more likely that Davies will start the year at AAA. I just sincerely hope that we will not consider trading HoRam over the winter. If we consider trading him at all (and I’m not convinced that we should)… it should only be after he’s had a chance to get a healthy start on the season and bring his trade value up considerably. Personally, I think we ought to hang on to HoRam.

By Head Coach

September 5, 2006 01:39 PM | Link to this

Yep , with Chuck James , Kyle Davies , Horacio Ramirez in Atlanta and with Anthony Lerew , Matt Harrison and Jo Jo Reyes in the pipeline the Braves pitching future looks bright.

By Lew

September 5, 2006 01:40 PM | Link to this

FlBG-You may be right about the fanfare thing. I remember Brad Komminsk “THe Next Dale Murphy”, among otheres who never lived up to the hype. Francoeur will live up to it, if in fact, he hasn’t already, but being in the background certainly has it’s advantages for some. Chuck’s pitching last night was one of the brightest points in an otherwise dismal season, but don’t count Davies out yet. That was a nasty injry he sustained and AAA rehab starts aren’t a real good indication-especially long-term.

By KC

September 5, 2006 01:42 PM | Link to this

Shaun… please name a bad pitcher to post an ERA of 3.00 or lower over 230 innings or more.

By Ron Roberts

September 5, 2006 01:43 PM | Link to this

I’m gonna answer KC about some things that sorta irritate me….

Dude, if somebody isn’t blowing sunshine up your butt about the Braves, you just have to challenge them, don’t you? Yes, I did have concerns about the braves picking up Hudson after his injury-riddled season in Oakland. Believe it or mock it if you will, but I did. I also (in the same offseason) had concerns about corner outfielders on the opening day roster named Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan. Does that make me smarter than John Schuerholz? I never claimed to be smarter, but I certainly had a damn good gut feeling that those two weren’t worthy of a starting spot on a team trying to return to playoff form. Everybody in the world had a gut feeling that Chris Reitsma and the ‘06 opening day bullpen roster wasn’t gonna cut it, except for Schuerholz. Does that make EVERYBODY ELSE smarter than him?

You slay me, dude…. I, too, like to be optimistic about this team, but I’m also able to pull myself outta my spot as a fan and say when and where this team has done things wrongly, so yeah, I was probably in the vast minority when it comes to the Hudson acquisition back then, but to hell with it… i was sayin’ it.

If you wanna “discuss” stuff with me, that’s fine… but cut the smarmy ‘tude, okay?

FYI… I’d seen a promo about the Braves & Mets being on TBS early this morning, but I reckon they pulled it… tbs.com isn’t showing that the Braves were on their schedule tonight. That sucks. Somebody’s gotta convince LOUISIANA cable providers that Turner SOUTH means the ENTIRE southern U.S. I miss toooo many games and I’m just flat-out refusing to pay top-dollar to watch MLB games when I gotta do the same for NFL coming up. Can’t wait til you can cherry-pick which teams you wanna watch and pay less, rather than pay more to watch ALLLLL of ‘em.

By TennesseePaul

September 5, 2006 01:45 PM | Link to this

ShaUn Payne: True. One certainly shouldn’t rely completely on one stat and one frame of reference. To that note: In 2003 Tom Tippett concluded that the differences between pitchers in preventing hits on balls in play were at least partially the result of skill. It isn’t entirely luck and fielding. I again point to Maddux. There was one game in particular (I don’t recall which, just remember reading about it after the game), when Maddux was in a jam with no outs. He had runners on and either Leo or Cox went out to talk to him and asked him if he was gased and needed to come out. Maddux said something to the likes of: “No. I’ve got them were I want them. I’m going to get this guy to pop out to Chipper in foul territory and then the next guy is going to hit a grounder to Short for the double play.” And sure enough, that’s what happened. The ERA is a pretty good bench mark to build from. Obviously, if one is to build a team, and pick the correct players, it’s a combination of everything. All the Scouts and all the Numbers. But taking ERA into account isn’t going to lead you totally off base in the quality of pitching you are recieving. Maddux and his 1.63 ERA and Reitsma and his 9.11 ERA. When looking at an ERA, it’s also recommended you look at the number of innings pitched. And in both those cases you can see Maddux was good and Reitsma was bad. You can go deeper and see just how good and bad each were, but as a quick synopsis, ERA is a good gauge.

By Lew

September 5, 2006 01:45 PM | Link to this

KC-I don’t know about the innings, but how about Jorge Sosa? For the most part, though, you are right. Head Coach makes a good point. There are more children working their way up. We have tended to lose sight of that fact this year-Probably because we brought damn near everyone vaguely readyy for the bigs last season. It skewed our view of the front end of the pipeline for this season.

By Shaun Payne

September 5, 2006 01:47 PM | Link to this

Lew,

Francouer could become the next Dale Murphy but he definetly hasn’t already lived up to the hype. He’s costing the Braves way too many outs to be a productive player, much less the next Dale Murphy.

By Lew

September 5, 2006 01:53 PM | Link to this

Shaun P-You and I have gone on and on about this one all season. He has much room for improvement, but his 162 games totals are way more than acceptable for a rookie ballplayer. He needs to learn plate discipline and if he does, his average will climb. He doesn’t try to hit every ball into the bleachers. He WILL come around. However, only Ryan Howard has had a better 162 game start than Jeff, in my not so humble opinion. Nothing you can say will negate what I and many others consider a great start.

By Head Coach

September 5, 2006 01:58 PM | Link to this

I dunno , I watched Francoeur take a four pitch walk last night and I almost fell off my couch.

By Ron Roberts

September 5, 2006 01:59 PM | Link to this

Wasn’t Francoeur technically a rookie last season? Just curious.

By KC

September 5, 2006 01:59 PM | Link to this

Lew… again, that’s why I said 230 innings. Sosa didn’t start for a full season.

Also, I would argue that Sosa wasn’t a bad pitcher last year. On the contrary, he was quite good. He wasn’t as good as his numbers last year would lead you to believe, but regardless of how many runners he put on… he did pitch out of it almost every time, and that’s not easy. You have to give him credit for what he accomplished last year, regardless of how ugly it was at times.

Jorge Sosa was a different pitcher last year from what we saw of him this year. That’s all there is to it.

By David O'Brien

September 5, 2006 02:01 PM | Link to this

Ken, yes they did, and I acknowledged that was better than either song I had up. Come Monday just slipped my mind at the time. An incredible tune, my favorite Buffet by far (not a huge Buffet fan, but that’s just a great song, no novelty tune)

By Shaun Payne

September 5, 2006 02:03 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

My argument is people say and seem to think ERA is the best or most important stat in evaluating pitchers. ERA is okay, but just RA is better and DIPS is even better.

There is really very little or no consistency in pitchers who lead the league in lowest batting average allowed on balls in play, which seems to indicate that getting hitters to make outs on balls in play is very largely defense and luck. But there is consistency in pitchers who lead the league in fewest BB and HR allowed and strikeouts. Those are the most important stats for pitchers, but there are stats that take all of those into account to form one, DIPS is probably the best that I know of.

The reason Maddux was/is great was because his strikeout rate is pretty good and his walk rate is out of this world. He did get a lot of ground balls, too, which shows up in homeruns allowed. ERA can fluctuate due to defense and luck, but K/BB ratio are going to pretty much stay consistent for most pitchers.

Maddux and Reitsma are extreme examples. It would be difficult to post extreme ERA’s like that (under 2.00 or over 5.00) and still put up good K/BB and HR allowed numbers.

By KC

September 5, 2006 02:03 PM | Link to this

If Davies can settle down in his next start and truly impress for the rest of the month… It could mean a one way ticket for Tim Hudson on a Westbound (or northbound) train. I’m not a Hudson hater, and I’m not anxious to see him go. Personally, I think it’s highly unlikely that he will repeat this abysmal season… but if our rotation is such that we don’t need him, and can clear significant payroll space for the next few seasons… I would certainly be open to it. That would certainly give us plenty of money to spend on the bullpen next season, and beyond that, plenty of room to re-sign Andruw. But I would only consider it if I were quite confident in what Kyle Davies will give us next year.

Smoltz, Hampton, Ramirez, James, Davies.

If Davies starts to come into his own… that could be a very good rotation. I don’t think the three-lefties in the rotation means anything at all. There’s no such thing as a successful left-handed starter who can’t get right-handed hitters out… so what’s the issue??? However, there are some right-handed starters who are able to enjoy a certain degree of success while getting tagged by left-handed hitters. If anything, having 3-5 right-handed starters strikes me as more of a potential problem than having 3 lefties.

By TennesseePaul

September 5, 2006 02:03 PM | Link to this

Lew: I think Pujols had a better 162 game start than Francoeur, Mauer as well. I like Francoeur. I think he’ll be great. And hopefully he will learn pitch recognition and plate discipline. If he does, he’ll be one of the best in the majors for a long long time. Until then, he’ll have to rely on great defense and some power numbers to get the praise and recognition. He’ll be in the Andruw Jones catagory. Love both of them, but neither is really a fantastic hitter. Great sluggers, incredible fielders but not hitting machines. Francoeur can change that if he learns the pitches and the zone better.

Good point on the Sosa call. But I think Sosa’s innings will fall far short of 230. He only lasted 5 innings a game, if that. Just long enough to qualify for the win.

By Brad

September 5, 2006 02:05 PM | Link to this

Trading James? A lot of people has said that James reminds them of a young Tom Glavine. Imagine how the Braves would have been with out Tom Glavine all those years. The Braves build their team around pitching. That is why the Braves have struggled this year, it was pitching. With Smoltz, Hudson, Hampton, James in the rotation next year, it looks to be good. We also have Davies and Rameriez(sp?) I think the Braves should keep James, I think he will be the Braves ace for years like Tommy was.

By Lew

September 5, 2006 02:11 PM | Link to this

TenPaul-I’m not talking about all starts, ever, just used Howard as a more contemporary example. I know he hasn’t had the greatest of all starts. I’m just concerned that people don’t understand what productivity is. Based on tjis years stats, Howard compared to Francoeur. Using the runs=rbi-hr stat, or Runs produced, Howard has accounted for 170 runs in 130 games. Francouer has produced 141 runs in 132 games. This works out to 1.3 runs per game for Howard, who is having what may well be an MVP season (he would get my vote), compared to just shy of 1.1 runs per game for Francoeur. This IS productivity. It can get better, yes, but that is productive. If the Braves were closer to the front of the division, everyone would be raving about Francoeur’s performance. I think it’s a lot of frustration showing in his detractors.

By Lew

September 5, 2006 02:13 PM | Link to this

That’s runs plus RBI minus HR. For some reason that didn’t come out the way I typed it.

By David O'Brien

September 5, 2006 02:13 PM | Link to this

Francoeur no longer a rookie. Last season he went over the thresholds for rookie status.

He basically has about the same experience as … Ryan Howard. Yikes.

Shaun, I’m going to have to side squarely with those who say ERA is about as good a single indicator as there is for a STARTING pitcher over a full season. It rarely, rarely lies. That and WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched, as you know) are great indicators. You lose people when you try to get too esoteric with all the other new-generation stats that aren’t ever going to catch on with mainstream, like passer rating in football. That’s way too complicated.

ERA doesn’t lie. Not over 200 innings. Good defense will help you, but won’t give you a great ERA if you weren’t really good to begin with.

Put it this way: AL ERA leaders currently: 1. Johan Santana, 2.95 (65/198.1 inng), 2. Scott Kazmir, 3.24 (52/144.2), 3. Justin Verlander, 3.27 (60/165.0), 4. Roy Halladay, 3.29 (73/200), 5. C.C. Sabathia, 3.31 (60/163.1).

NL ERA leaders: 1. Chris Carpenter, 2.87 (59/185.1), 2. Josh Johnson, 2.99 (49/147.1), 3. Roy Oswalt, 3.12 (64/184.2), 4. Brandon Webb, 3.14 (69/198.0), 5. Jason Schmidt, 3.39 (71/188.2).

What’s misleading? For the most part, they’re also the Cy Young award candidate favorites.

On the other extreme, high ERA for guys like Josh Beckett, Jason Marquis and Steve Trachsel is much better indicator of their performance than wins, which are in so many ways out of pitcher’s hands. Wins and losses is the stat that can we wildly misleading, not ERA.

By KC

September 5, 2006 02:14 PM | Link to this

I can’t remember who the writer was that supposedly named C.James as the most likely candidate to be traded… but we can put that notion to rest. It ain’t happnin’… period. Hudson is the only Braves starter that might be traded this winter, and even there I think the chances are pretty slim.

By Head Coach

September 5, 2006 02:14 PM | Link to this

Playoff teams are built around pitching and defense. That said , Hudson is going nowhere. They are going to need all the pitching and depth in the rotation they can get their hands on for next season. They have already used more than 10 starters this season and with all the injury history of 2005, 2006 do you really think the Braves are going to be in the mood to trade starting pitching ? are you crazy ?

By Ron Roberts

September 5, 2006 02:16 PM | Link to this

Shuffle off Hudson before James, I say… for monetary reasons and because James has plenty more years ahead of him, and we’re essentially building a solid young core that a rotation needs to grow up with.

With Smoltz, James, Ramirez, Lance Cormier, Oscar Villareal, Hampton and Davies, we have plenty of options for a starting rotation, and I’d gues that, outside of the White Sox and Tigers, we’re the envy of Major League Baseball when it comes to having so many promisng young rotation-bound guys. Looks like another run of excellence is upon us, to me.

The good thing about that is, this time, we’re developing a young bullpen as well, and there’s a lot in the stable there, too, with McBride, Yates, Boyer, Devine, Startup all showing signs of success in the near future. Couple that with Francoeur (take a few more pitches, kid…), McCann, LaRoche (that’s right, all you early-season smugs…he’s here, deal with it)… and the foundation’s there for some superior play for years to come.

By KC

September 5, 2006 02:18 PM | Link to this

Good news… the Braves will see Oliver Perez tomorrow. What in the WORLD was the deal with this kid???? Look at his career stats. 2004 looks like a typo… but it wasn’t. Very strange.

By Ron Roberts

September 5, 2006 02:18 PM | Link to this

Beckett, Marquis and Trachsel all play on teams capable of lighting up a scoreboard, too…

By David O'Brien

September 5, 2006 02:18 PM | Link to this

Dude, are you serious about DIPS and RA? The conversation is irrelevent for the most part, because you’re never, ever going to hear even relatively serious baseball fans, much less casual ones, say, “Hey, Maddux’s DIPS and RA are off the charts, bro.”

Come on. This isn’t rocket science. Stats have to be accessible to matter to 99 percent of the public (not even us in the baseball media, broadcasters and writers, sit around talking to each other or to scouts, managers and GMs about DIPS and RA. Never.)

By Lew

September 5, 2006 02:20 PM | Link to this

RonRoberts-Thanks for mentioning Cormier. What we tend to lose sight of with Cormier and Villarreal is that they are both not that far from their surgeries. I think they both will only get better with time. Last night on the TBS broadcast, they talked about the possibility of moving McBride into the rotation if necessary. Anyone have any thoughts on this? It’s a new concept to me.

By KC

September 5, 2006 02:21 PM | Link to this

I know this is a random thought… but if guys like Dale Murphy and Jim Rice aren’t good enough to make the Hall of Fame… maybe MLB should reexamine the number of players allowed in each year. Hell, even Charles Barkley went on a tirade on Inside the NBA one night as to what a travesty of justice it was for Murphy not to be in the Hall of Fame.

By KC

September 5, 2006 02:24 PM | Link to this

Why in the world would we move McBride to the rotation???????????????????

We have 6 guys who can start right now with the return of Davies and the serviceable performances of Villareal and Cormier. We certainly wouldn’t need anyone else for the rotation next year. Why would that notion even come up???

By Tony Almeida

September 5, 2006 02:26 PM | Link to this

So DOB, does Chuckie have any chance of rookie of the year honors?

And you missed a good Tim McGraw show in Vegas Sunday night, it kicked a$$$$$$$$.

By Ron Roberts

September 5, 2006 02:27 PM | Link to this

Oliver Perez was 1-0 with a 2.57 against the Braves last year… …these are just the kinda guys we struggle against, for some reason.

By Shaun Payne

September 5, 2006 02:27 PM | Link to this

You and I have gone on and on about this one all season. He has much room for improvement, but his 162 games totals are way more than acceptable for a rookie ballplayer. He needs to learn plate discipline and if he does, his average will climb. He doesn’t try to hit every ball into the bleachers. He WILL come around. However, only Ryan Howard has had a better 162 game start than Jeff, in my not so humble opinion. Nothing you can say will negate what I and many others consider a great start.

Francouer is not ready and what I say may not negate what you consider a great start, but the facts should. The fact is he costs his team way too many outs to be considered an above average offensive player. I wouldn’t consider .275 average/.307 on-base/.482 slugging in 207 games a great start. That .307 on-base means he’s costing the Braves outs in 69.3 percent of his plate appearances.

Francouer is probably going to be a productive player, but he’s shown he hasn’t been ready offensively the past two seasons.

I wish it weren’t true, but I can’t ignore the facts.

By Lew

September 5, 2006 02:28 PM | Link to this

KC-That’s what happens when you let Sportswriters decide and the AJC won’t let anyone of their people vote (can’t blame DOB, here). Blyleven, Tommy John, Murphy, Rice, Santo and a few others definitely deserve enshrinement. I think players like Murphy and Dawson, to name a couple, suffered because their carrers were followed by an outrageously huge offensive explosion. Murphy led the NL in Hr for the 1980’s. He even hit more than Schmidt during that decade. That combined with 2 MVP’s should have locked it up for him. I doubt he will everget in. That’s not even counting that if they can keep Rose out for bad behaviour, Murphy should get extra credit.

By Lew

September 5, 2006 02:29 PM | Link to this

KC-Just telling what I heard from Chip and whomever last night. Didn’t say it made sense.

By geauxbraves2000

September 5, 2006 02:30 PM | Link to this

My cable guide also shows the game on TBS tonight. I guess we’ll see.

Did anyone notice Francoeur took 8 pitches before he swung? To me that was one of the best parts of the game. Learn to recognize pitches instead of just hacking at them not having a clue. I hope he keeps this patience up. Now, if he recognizes a fast ball down the middle on the first pitch, of course whack the crap out of it, but no more swinging at the low and away 4 foot off of the plate 1st pitch curves.

Come on js, mow ‘em down, come on offense, light ‘em up.

Geaux Braves!!

By KC

September 5, 2006 02:35 PM | Link to this

Lew, yeah I understand that it wasn’t your idea… just wondering why any Braves announcer would even bring that up.

By Lew

September 5, 2006 02:37 PM | Link to this

ShaunP-You and I are probably just going to have to agree to disagree. I think for a 22 year old kid with half a year in AA, Francoeur has been way more productive than anyone had a right to expect. If you think that producing 1.1 runs per game after only 200 ML games is unproductive, we will never come to terms on this one, dude. I acknowledge he will get better. He already has. His average has risen steadily since that Godawful start, especially recently. He is up to .262 and his career OBP is up to .300 from the low twos earlier this season. Have some patience yourself. This kid has probably been under pressure to perform that we will never experience. He’s still a baby in big league terms, not even supposed to have played until this year at the earliest. What more do you really expect. He will be one of the greats.

By Bob Horner

September 5, 2006 02:38 PM | Link to this

I deserve consideration before that CHUMP Murphy.

By Ron Roberts

September 5, 2006 02:38 PM | Link to this

Re: McBride to the rotation…I heard that, too, and think it’s not all that bad an idea - once we get other dependable arms in the ‘pen. He has good stuff, four pitches he can use at any given time, and his confidence is up.

By Matt Yoder

September 5, 2006 02:40 PM | Link to this

I do not believe there is a need for offensive help of any kind for this ball club anymore! This team would have well over 100 wins right now if we would’ve had a rotation like back in the good ole days and had Bob Wickman at the start of the season….But I feel that “barring injuries” we got a exciting young team that in the next few years is gonna display the same special talents that we enjoyed in the early 90’s !!! Just a heck of a lot better offence! As far as the need of a lead off hitter? We have got one in Pete Oor,this guy is fun and exciting to watch and MAN can he run !!!! Go BRAVES! PS. I still haven’t given up on this year ;)

By Dog the Bounty Hunter

September 5, 2006 02:41 PM | Link to this

LEWIE!! Long time no chat. Francouer would improve if someone would teach him patience, that person should remain nameless (TERRY PENDLETON). He’s having a great year, but with some patience, I’m thinking MVP type year.

By Shaun Payne

September 5, 2006 02:41 PM | Link to this

geauxbraves2000,

Good point. I have noticed that Francouer seems to be making the effort to not get himself out by swinging at bad pitches lately. Maybe that’s a sign of things to come next year. If he can get his walk total up to around 40-60 and his batting average up to above .300 (by swinging at better pitches) he will be a star.

By Head Coach

September 5, 2006 02:42 PM | Link to this

Murph has my vote , hell they let Puckett in so why isnt Murphy in the Hall of Fame ? and Dawson , Rice among others. Blyleven wont ever get in , he lost to many games and didnt get to 300 wins. He won 287 lost 250 and pitched for a lot of bad baseball teams in Minnesota , Cleveland , Texas , California and Pittsburgh.

By Lew

September 5, 2006 02:45 PM | Link to this

Dog-You and I agree on something. There is nothing but upside to Francoeur. Maybe we all nedd patience in our lives. I, too have wondered about Pendleton’s role this year. People on this blog were discusiing Andruw’s falling down swing for quite some time before he and TP adressed the fact. Speculation can only remain rampant.

By Shaun Payne

September 5, 2006 02:45 PM | Link to this

Lew,

I have patience with Francouer. And I agree that he’s likely to become a star, as I’ve said many many times. I’m just saying he has not helped the Braves create runs this season as much as Matt Diaz or Ryan Langerhans would in his place if they got the shot to play everyday.

By TennesseePaul

September 5, 2006 02:46 PM | Link to this

Francoeur is not ready? Ready for what, going back to the minors? He’s here to stay.

Lew: I see your point. I’ll try not to compare everyone to Pujols. It just isn’t fair to the other guys.
I wasn’t saying Francoeur isn’t good, or at least I didn’t mean to. I like the guy. When he came up, I was expecting something like Chipper. Probably, well, entirely because he was dubbed the new golden boy. The guy to take the charge from Chipper. Maybe in terms of “face of the orginization” but as far as at the plate, he’s way closer to Andruw than Chipper. He swings at the low and away, strikes out a lot, streaky, and keeps his average around .265. I hope he can turn it all around and pull that average up, but until then I just have to keep reminding myself that he is more like Andruw than Chipper.

By Georgetown Kid

September 5, 2006 02:48 PM | Link to this

I was the writer who broached the subject of shopping James.

The Braves payroll limitations will prevent them from achieving everything on the wish list (re-signing Wickman, retaining Giles, retaining Ramirez, signing a proven leadoff hitter).

The unfortunate truth is that the Braves will have to sacrafice something if they are to re-sign Wickman and sign a proven leadoff hitter.

Another unfortunate truth is that Hudson is unmovable. What GM would trade anything of value for a mediocre pitcher with a $10 million price tag?

The trade value of Ramirez is also quite dimished due to his injuries. Giles is in a similar situation.

So if the Braves are to keep Wickman and find a leadoff man, something will have to go. This inevitable reality is compounded by the fact that both Giles and Ramirez are due significant raises this offseason and are both likely to be kept due to their low marketablility.

James could fetch us a fortune, and should a team offer us an allstar leadoff man plus cash or a middle reliever, would it be smart of us to turn it down?

In an ideal world, we keep Wickman, Giles, Ramirez, and sign a top-notch leadoff hitter. We would also trade Hudson for some young talent.

The Braves payroll limitations and Hudson’s mediocrity make our world slightly less than ideal, however.

By Lew

September 5, 2006 02:50 PM | Link to this

Head Coach-If nothing else, they should enshrine Blyleven’s curve ball. Possibly the nastiest ever. Shaun-Patience will never be learned if Francoeur doesn’t play. Are you really serious about Langerhans having a better season? He had a chance to play full time and didn’t come close to Francoeurs play ( except defensively, of course). I was a big supporter ofLangy in the offseason, but never in a million years expected a Francoeur like performance out of him. Time to go rock. Later all. Bye Dog.

By Dog the Bounty Hunter

September 5, 2006 02:50 PM | Link to this

Shaun?? Did you say Ryan Langerhans could create more runs then Franceour?? King Strikeout?? King of popping up a bunt??

By Shaun Payne

September 5, 2006 02:51 PM | Link to this

Lew,

And please don’t misunderstand me…I believe Francouer is going to be a much better player than Diaz or Langerhans ever will be. I’m just saying Langerhans or Diaz would have helped the Braves more this year than Francouer has.

By Lew

September 5, 2006 02:56 PM | Link to this

One last thing-Georgetown Kid. At the end of the season, Thomson @$.45 mil, Sosa, 2.5, Reitsma, 2.5, Jordan $1 mil, Remlinger 1 mil, will be gone, never to return (unless Jordan signs for nothing). That works out to $11.5 million. Re-signing Wickman will probably cost $5mil. That leaves $6.5 million left for raises and leadoff hitter (which we could readily do without) and KEEP Marcus. I don’t know why you think our needs require getting rid of our best, youngest pitcher. BYe.

By Shaun Payne

September 5, 2006 02:56 PM | Link to this

Dog the Bounty Hunter,

Yes. Langerhans would not have cost the Braves as many outs as Francouer. He doesn’t get himself out. Look at the AVG/OBP/SLG and compare Langerhans, Diaz and Francouer.

And please don’t misunderstand me…I believe Francouer is going to be a much better player than Diaz or Langerhans ever will be. I’m just saying Langerhans or Diaz would have helped the Braves more this year than Francouer has.

By TennesseePaul

September 5, 2006 02:58 PM | Link to this

Payne: You’re killing me. Langerhans has been on the team the whole year and he certainly hasn’t helped more than Francoeur. What is the close and late stats on Francoeur compared to Langerhans? You like the obscure stats… I’d imagine Francoeur has Langerhans on that one. He’s, what, 2nd in the majors in late RBIs? I don’t recall the stat, but I do recall it was Francoeur and not Langerhans.

By TennesseePaul

September 5, 2006 03:02 PM | Link to this

Georgetown: Trading a guy making league minimum isn’t going to improve the finances of the team. Who ever they’d get back in return is going to make the same as or more than James. Secondly, Giles is not untradeable. The health reports were false. He just needed to burp. I’m glad that guy is back and ready to go. He has really turned it up as of late. If anything other teams can learn from this year that Giles is better hitting second than first. So, if JS is to trade him, he shouldn’t market him as a viable leadoff hitter. JS should highlight his strengths, great defender, excellent doubles man, solid power, and great hitter in the 2 hole.

By Adam Worth

September 5, 2006 03:03 PM | Link to this

Dob, the handwriting was in Hudson’s weight. He’s undersized. If someone weighs 165 at age 30, he’s not gonna get any bigger or better. Hudson peaked a long time ago and you didn’t know it. Don’t blame it on the fact that nobody else said boo. Face it. You were fooled. And so was JS. And so is anybody else that thinks that JS and Dob are still on top of their respective games.

By Dog the Bounty Hunter

September 5, 2006 03:03 PM | Link to this

So you think, given the chance to play everyday, that Langerhans would have more HR’s and RBI’s? He was definately on pace to lead the team in SO’s.

By AZBravoFan

September 5, 2006 03:04 PM | Link to this

Someone mentioned Francoeur’s 4 pitch walk last night. Startling to be sure. But no one has said anything about his 3 pitch K where he never got the bat off his shoulder. That has to be a first. What happened there?

By donald troutman

September 5, 2006 03:05 PM | Link to this

I would like you answer this question trade andruw an get gary sheffield an put fancour in centerfrild cody in left in keep chuck in the srarting rotaion we could be in the world series next year

By Shaun Payne

September 5, 2006 03:07 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

I like the stats that matter most with concern to run production. I’m going to post this link for the millionth time that will give you an idea where I’m coming from:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2562

By TennesseePaul

September 5, 2006 03:08 PM | Link to this

I gained 15 pounds at the age of 30. I think Hudson could do it as well. But I don’t think that would improve his location any.

By KC

September 5, 2006 03:09 PM | Link to this

Batting average is also a meaningless statistic.

Studies have proven that pitches seen per plate appearance is actually the most important factor (next to on-base percentage of course) on all winning teams. And the number of base advancements as compared to the number of times on base is a more reliable stat than runs scored. It’s been proven!

By Matt Yoder

September 5, 2006 03:10 PM | Link to this

Mr’Obrien,what do you thing the chances are of Pete Oor getting a chance to lead off and play 2nd base next year? He’s got great speed and seems to do a great job everytime he gets a chance to play…

By KC

September 5, 2006 03:10 PM | Link to this

Sorry Shaun, I couldn’t resist. I’m poking fun, but it’s good natured… I promise. :o)

By Shaun Payne

September 5, 2006 03:10 PM | Link to this

So you think, given the chance to play everyday, that Langerhans would have more HR’s and RBI’s? He was definately on pace to lead the team in SO’s.

Dog the Bounty Hunter,

Homeruns and RBI really aren’t very telling when your talking creating runs. This article is the best one I’ve found to explain what I mean. I pull it out whenever I want to defend my views on Francouer:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2562

By Adam Worth

September 5, 2006 03:10 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul, do you make 8 figures per year?

By Daybed Wagmoe

September 5, 2006 03:12 PM | Link to this

hey DOB,

during sunday’s games on the radio, they had a trivia question: Name the 4 starting pitchers to have recorded a win against every active (ie: including the devil rays)baseball team. you probably know them, but i’ll leave the answer for those that would like to think about it…

my question: i’d like to know how many pitchers have recorded a LOSS against every active baseball team. do you know this answer DOB? can you direct me to a website or other resource that would help me find that information?

By TennesseePaul

September 5, 2006 03:13 PM | Link to this

Yes. Actually I do.

By KC

September 5, 2006 03:15 PM | Link to this

Batting average is also a meaningless statistic.

Studies have proven that pitches seen per plate appearance is actually the most important factor (next to on-base percentage of course) on all winning teams. And the number of base advancements as compared to the number of times on base is a more reliable stat than runs scored. It’s been proven!

This link will prove it:

[http://www.barney.com/usa/index.html]

By ncscoots

September 5, 2006 03:16 PM | Link to this

TPaul, interesting that your comparison is you hoped Francoeur would be more like Chipper than Andruw. Chipper’s first year in 95? .265/23/86 and 99K. Admittedly, he had an OBP of .353, but that’s the only significant difference between his first year and Jeff’s. And I’d say that Chipper turned into a pretty good (and selective) hitter, no?

By Adam Worth

September 5, 2006 03:18 PM | Link to this

I think you are a great human being, TennesseePaul. Could I borrow $400,000 to pay off my mortgage? Really, I like you.

By Shaun Payne

September 5, 2006 03:25 PM | Link to this

KC,

I understand. Some stuff from the world of statistical analysis seems insane but if you dig deep, you’ll see it makes much more sense than anything that you hear from a lot of the “experts” you hear on TV or read on the sports pages.

By TennesseePaul

September 5, 2006 03:25 PM | Link to this

ncscoots: Chipper turned into a pretty good (and selective) hitter, no?
Yes. Or No I guess I should say. Whatever, I agree. There is plenty of time for Francoeur. But right now, he looks more like Andruw than Chipper. He’ll mash the ball. Strike out a lot and play great baseball. I certainly hope he can turn up the pitch recognition. He seems to have in the past few weeks. That sixth inning at bat from a week or so ago… just beautiful. If he can do more of that, he’ll be huge. Huge I tell you.

Payne: I read Moneyball. I watched the trading DePodesta build the Dodgers entirely on these statistical figures, and I watch the Dodgers record the worst, or second worst season in Franchise history. There is more to it than just the numbers. If it is a choice of playing Francoeur every day or Langerhans, I, along with most nearly ever manager, would pick Francoeur.

By KC

September 5, 2006 03:28 PM | Link to this

Shaun, I’m just pickin on ya man. It’s always good to have thoughtful people around. Lord knows we get too many of the other variety in here from time to time.

By KC

September 5, 2006 03:31 PM | Link to this

HEY!!! Where are my LaRoche haters at??? Haven’t heard from ya’ll in a while.

By Shaun Payne

September 5, 2006 03:32 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

DePodesta was given one year. That’s like a college coach coming in and getting fired after one year. You can’t judge a GM by what he did in one season. A better book is Baseball Between the Numbers. Much better and more educational than MoneyBall.

By geauxbraves2000

September 5, 2006 03:33 PM | Link to this

I make 7 figures a year. 5 figures, the decimal point and 2 more figures.

Geaux Braves!!

By ncscoots

September 5, 2006 03:34 PM | Link to this

TPaul, I know we’re in agreement. I’ve read enough of your posts to know you have a great baseball mind…like me :-) I don’t know that Francoeur will ever be more than a .270 hitter, but in the last six weeks, you could defintely see some at-bats where the dude was actually GETTING it. I think the toughest adjustment for a good hitter to make in the Show is learning that all strikes are not for swinging, that some pitches in the strike zone are pitchers’ strikes, and should be spit at as they go by. The one thing you HAVE been able to see about Frenchy is the progression from swinging at any pitch CLOSE to the zone to swinging at pitches IN the zone. He still has that last, toughest adjustment to make, but if he does, whoa nellie. Just remains to be seen on that score.

By braves fan

September 5, 2006 03:40 PM | Link to this

DOB, I hate to sound contradictory, but actually Chuck James needs to keep the ball UP, not DOWN. I don’t know if you can, but go back and review the tapes of Chuck’s games. Most of the homeruns he allowed are on lower pitches. And most of the swing and misses he gets are on high pitches. I know it sounds strange, and atypical, but something about his delivery makes high pitches harder to hit than the lower ones. He gets burned mostly on low fastballs.

By Shaun Payne

September 5, 2006 03:44 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

Oh, my point about DePodesta was it’s like a college coach. He needs time to get his own players in there.

By KC

September 5, 2006 03:45 PM | Link to this

nscoots:

I strongly suspect that Francoeur will be better than a .270 hitter as he begins to mature as a major league hitter.

My prediction for Francoeur next year:

.289, 36-HR, 110-RBI, .325-OBP

By superadam

September 5, 2006 03:52 PM | Link to this

I am a long time reader few time writer and had a real vague music question I figured someone in the ultimate music taste blog and ultimate braves blog might be able to help me with….A few years ago I went on a school camping trip out west and the teacher had a cd of a group, kind of country sounding, the name of the band had something boys in it if I remember it correctly and they did a song kinda of satiracl that talked about saying goodnight to a girl that he did not know….Anyone know the group or the song I am talking about. I am feverishly trying to surf the net to figure out who it is, if I find them I will post it

By David O'Brien

September 5, 2006 03:53 PM | Link to this

Tony A, glad you enjoyed that big show in Vegas. Must’ve been a cool crowd of hipsters that that shindig! (Or not)

No, Chuck doesn’t have a shot at rookie of the year because the Marlins alone have three rookies with 10 or more wins, plus All-Star 2B Dan Uggla. And that’s just one team off the top of my head.

Bravesfan, NOBODY needs to keep the ball up instead of down. What sport you been following? What pitching coach did you hear say that? Should I suggest to Bobby that Chuck needs to keep the ball up, and give them your name?

By ncscoots

September 5, 2006 04:01 PM | Link to this

Yeah, “up” is kinda ambiguous, if you’re talking in baseball terms, anyway. “Up” is belt-high, with Mr. Rawlings screaming “hit me”. James gets some funky swings when he’s WAY up, yes, but that’s shoulder-high, with Mr. Rawlings screaming “nyah-nyah ne nyah-nyah”. I don’t think CJB is too worried about homers on pitches at the knees.

By ncscoots

September 5, 2006 04:04 PM | Link to this

KC, if Frenchy hits near .290, his OBP is going to WAY higher than .325, that’s almost a law of nature.

By David O'Brien

September 5, 2006 04:04 PM | Link to this

Shaun, did you seriously just say that the Braves would’ve been better off offensively with langerhans in RF than Francoeur?

See, that’s where you go too far with stats. Because if there is some stat that indicates to you that the Braves would be better off with Langy (and I love him, but he’s done NOTHING offensively) in RF than Francoeur, then you’ve found a stat that’s not applicable to the real world _and I’m not talking about to the broadcasters and reporters you dismiss, but to the managers and scouts and GMs who make decisions.

Again, the word irrelevent comes to mind.

By TennesseePaul

September 5, 2006 04:06 PM | Link to this

Payne: the Trading DePot was in place for 2 years. He got all his guys in there. He traded away everyone when he came in. By the second year, the team was nearly entirely his. His problem was, he relied too heavily on the stats. He didn’t take into account age, and years of service. Otherwise he’d have seen that his oldass team with players playing out of position wasn’t in line to do anything but go flop onto the DL. The new Dodgers is all Ned. He’s done a good job. He has enough Shortstops to play every position but pitcher. I don’t know why the guy likes shortstops so much…

As for Langerhans, if he had as many plate appearances as Francoeur, and progressed as Langerhans has progressed over the year. He’d have 145 strike outs and a .219 average. Langerhans has been in decline since the beginning of the season. (From May 1 through today he has a .287 OBP)

As for my figures. I should be more clear. I make about 8 a week. Some times ten. Depends on the time of year. At the end of little league, the orders really come in and I have to make a lot of figures.
But seriously, I don’t see why the amount Hudson is paid is a valid statement on how well he is going to be. The amount Hudson makes (7 figures a year this year, not 8) is based on what he has done and hopes of what he will do.
I can almost guarantee that if we do manage to trade Hudson, next year he’ll go 24-3 with a 2.10 ERA and win the Cy Young, MVP, Golden Glove and Silver Slugger awards. It’s just the way it works. I have yet to find the Bill James formula for that, but there has to be one some where.

By journalist jimmy smith

September 5, 2006 04:06 PM | Link to this

doctors in philadelphia have discovered that it is not a strained oblique bothering chipper jones, but a tin of tobacco rubbing on either side of his rectus abdominus.

that was a two-pie performance by chuck james last night. dob mentioned “cerebral” in his post and it must be remembered that some ball players may have a $10 million dollar arm and only a 10 cent head. scoots is right about francoeur - an adjustment could make him a superstar. if he fails to understand and to make the adjsutments that will allow himself to improve then he will be a good ballplayer but not a great one.

By ncscoots

September 5, 2006 04:11 PM | Link to this

TPaul, I think Murphy beat Bill James to that one. Or maybe we could write that scenario to the law of unintended consequences, LOL.

By geauxbraves2000

September 5, 2006 04:14 PM | Link to this

I think, scratch that, I know Francoeur is a star in the making, a 5 tooler if you will. As soon as he learns to be more selective at the plate, and I think that part of his game is turning around, the BA should go up. He’s got a cannon for an arm and I think a gold glove or two will be in his future. I know there’s a lot of teams that would love to have Francoeur in their lineup. Others must be thinking, “Where do the Braves come up with these guys?”

Get another quality starter and some reliable bullpen arms and this team will be having their WS rings sized. And soon.

Geaux Braves!!

By TennesseePaul

September 5, 2006 04:21 PM | Link to this

Since August 19th Francoeur has a .314 OBP. Or there abouts. I could have my stats sckewed. But that’s an improvement. His BB to K ratio has gone from 1 and 9 to 1 and 2. It’s a much smaller time scale though. Just hope he can build on it.

By geauxbraves2000

September 5, 2006 04:32 PM | Link to this

I’m not a big fan of strike outs, of course, but I do realize they are a part of today’s game, so when the hitters do strike out it’s not the strikeout that really bothers me, it’s when they are swinging at pitches low and away, ones that bounce, ones in their eyes, etc. The three pitch Francouer SO last night, when he took all three pitches, didn’t bother me at all. I told my old ball and chain, I mean, I told my darling wife that he’s now seen 7 pitches from Trachsel. 7 pitches is alot to see from a pitcher, and that could help him in future appearances against Trachsel.

Geaux Braves!!

By ernesto

September 5, 2006 04:39 PM | Link to this

The think I like (and that keeps me optimistic) about James is the kid goes after batters and he gets them. In spring training when people were saying we had too many SPs, I was like whoooaaa, you can’t count on Sosa based on one year and who knows what you’re going to get from Davies or HoRam. But this James kid doesn’t make me feel that way. I think he’s the real deal and I look forward to seeing him wearing the Tomahawk for years to come.

By journalist jimmy smith

September 5, 2006 04:43 PM | Link to this

“no, erin andrews you must leave, journalist has work to do … no, really, journalist must work right now. call this journalist later and we can talk.”

now, baseball … to the blogger who called chuck james a “liquid commodity”. you sound much like jimmy smith - in fact, you have confused even jimmy smith. liquid is illegal on the mound, right? and commodity … what is this commodity? young james has a change-up but no commodity. just what do you mean calling chuck james a liquid commodity?

By geauxbraves2000

September 5, 2006 04:43 PM | Link to this

As much as I like HoRam, he just can’t be counted on. He’s the Mark Prior/Kerry Wood/Ben Sheets of the Braves. He’s a good pitcher, dominant at times, but he just can’t stay healthy.

Has everyone on the east coast dried out from Ernesto yet? I’ve been through a couple of ‘canes from the years I spent in Southern Louisiana, so I do feel for those in the paths of these storms.

js on the mound tonight, one hopes js is not wearing down from the IP this year and from having to carry the team pitching wise most of the season.

Geaux Braves

By ncscoots

September 5, 2006 04:47 PM | Link to this

In fairness to Francoeur on the three-pitch K, Trachsel threw him three beautiful curves in a row to do it, and I doubt Francoeur has seen three breaking balls in a row for strikes in his entire baseball career. I’d bet real American dollars he was sitting dead-red on pitch three, and just got caught. Hey, it happens, tip your hat to the pitcher, they’re big leaguers, too, ya know.

By Alex

September 5, 2006 04:57 PM | Link to this

The Braves are not trading Chuck James. Not even for a lead off hitter the caliber of Crawford from the D-Rays.

I’m tired of hearing about Ryan Howard. First, he plays half his games at the craker box that is the stadium in Philly. How many HR’s do you think Andrew Jones, or Chipper or LaRoach would hit in a ballpark like that? It diminishes the numbers somewhat doesn’t it? Let’s see how many HR Howard hits if he plays for the San Diego Padres? So enough about Howard…ESPN’s Steve Phillips and John Kruk are in love with this guy!

By geauxbraves2000

September 5, 2006 05:07 PM | Link to this

I don’t have the answer right now Alex, and I really don’t feel like looking the stats up, but how many HRs has Howard hit on the road? That could be a sign if he truly is legit. IMO, he is, but again, I don’t know the road HR numbers compared to home HR numbers.

Geaux Braves!!

By MGL

September 5, 2006 05:17 PM | Link to this

There is no statistical difference between Haward’s stats at home or on the road. 1 HR every 2.53 games at home, and i HR in every 2.56 games on the road.

Give the guy credit for an excellent season, we would want that for our own guys.

By geauxbraves2000

September 5, 2006 05:22 PM | Link to this

Thank you for the info MGL, that indeed proves, for this season at least, that Howard is the real deal.

Think the Phillies will trade him to the Braves? Probably not. Oh well.

Geaux Braves!!

By TennesseePaul

September 5, 2006 05:28 PM | Link to this

With the rate at which LaRoche is picking it up, we don’t need to trade for Howard. If LaRoche can keep improving himself at this pace, he’ll hit .400 with 75 homers next year. I’ll be happy with .290 and 35+ homers and an everyday 1B with no platoon.
Go LaRoche!

GO BRAVES

By MEB

September 5, 2006 05:28 PM | Link to this

Alex… Have you seen the canon shots that Howard hits? I mean give the kid credit he is hitting tape measure shots that leave all observers raving about his power. Citizens Park may be small but there is nothing small about Ryan Howard’s power.

By el bravo x

September 5, 2006 05:34 PM | Link to this

Just got back from camping, did anything interesting happen during the weekend? Also a question to the powers that be, if a team picks up a contract or option year, can the player be traded at any time?

By Adam Worth

September 5, 2006 05:38 PM | Link to this

So I don’t get the loan? Even after you gained all that weight?

By paluka

September 5, 2006 05:40 PM | Link to this

Whoever would even consider trding James has no baseball sence. Pitching is the road to winning. The offense has been pretty good lately, it’s the starting pitching that has hurt us all year (plus a poor Bullpen early on). What are the chances of re-signing Wickman, we really need him to anchor the pen next season and maybe Blaine Boyer will be healthy enough to be a good setup guy along with McBride.

By Lew

September 5, 2006 05:48 PM | Link to this

Another thing about Francoeur-He is not trying to hit everything in the left field stands. He is starting to go up the middle and is making much better contact as a result. His batting average is up to .262 from somewhere down towards the Mendoza line. He is already showing progress and he IS only 22. How many of us showed any real maturity at that age, much less patience?

By Chop Chop

September 5, 2006 05:55 PM | Link to this

The Braves would be better off with Raul Mondesi and Brian Jordan patrolling the corner outfield spots. Reality bites. Those guys were great. Freaking All-Stars…and did HB get any credit? No.

Word to your mutha, HB.

I’ve listened to some clips from Dylan’s Modern Times. Sounds decent. The man can still write and put together good arrangements. Gotta give the man his props.

By Shaun Payne

September 5, 2006 05:58 PM | Link to this

Shaun, did you seriously just say that the Braves would’ve been better off offensively with langerhans in RF than Francoeur?

See, that’s where you go too far with stats. Because if there is some stat that indicates to you that the Braves would be better off with Langy (and I love him, but he’s done NOTHING offensively) in RF than Francoeur, then you’ve found a stat that’s not applicable to the real world _and I’m not talking about to the broadcasters and reporters you dismiss, but to the managers and scouts and GMs who make decisions.

Again, the word irrelevent comes to mind.

Okay, I’m wrong about Langerhans. Looking at the stats more closely Francouer is a little better (but not too much). According to BaseballProspectus.com, Francouer is about 0.9 runs below a fringe rightfielder. Langerhans is 2 runs below a fringe level leftfielder. Of course, maybe Langerhans would be better with more consistent playing time. Diaz has definetly been better than Francouer—15.9 runs above a fringe level leftfielder.

By Chop Chop

September 5, 2006 06:07 PM | Link to this

Langerhans would get on base more than Francoeur, but Francoeur’s power numbers, cannon-like arm and ability to hit when the pressure is on outweighs the OBP argument. I’d rather have a guy who can drive in 100+ runs in 600+ ABs with a low OBP than a guy who would probably drive in 60 runs in the same amount of ABs without as much power.

By Shaun Payne

September 5, 2006 06:13 PM | Link to this

DePodesta and “sabermetric” front offices

Actually DePodesta was there in 2004 when the Dodgers won the Division title and in 2005 when they weren’t so good. They had a lot of the same key player or similar players. Adrian Beltre was gone (he wouldn’t have made a difference anyway because he stunk in Seattle), Eric Gagne was injured, and Odalis Perez and Jeff Weaver were very average.

I don’t think we can tell how good DePodesta was by his short stint with the Dodgers. He didn’t exactly inherit a great team to begin with (in 2004 they were good but a lot of players played over their heads).

Obviously there is no one way to win a division title, but you’d be silly to dismiss “sabermetric” ideas because of one bad year of Paul DePodesta. Really only Oakland has fully embraced what many would call a sabermetric philosophy for any significant length of time and it appears to be a success. We’ll have to look at the Red Sox in 15-20 years and see how they look.

But you can look back in hindsight and see that many ideas sabermetricians embrace were the blueprints of many baseball dynasties, whether intentional or not. The great Yankee teams, the Big Red Machine, the 1950’s Dodgers, the late 1960’s Orioles—all posted high on-base percentages and big power numbers.

By Shaun Payne

September 5, 2006 06:17 PM | Link to this

Chop Chop,

RBI are too context dependent (they depend largely on the player’s teammates and how often he’s in the lineup) to tell us anything about the value of a player:

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2562

By Lew

September 5, 2006 06:17 PM | Link to this

And to think that the Big Red Machine had never even heard the terms “fringe level player” and “sabermetrics”. How did anyone ever win with undefined terms?

By el bravo x

September 5, 2006 06:22 PM | Link to this

Also a question to the powers that be, if a team picks up a contract or option year, can the player be traded at any time?

By PAT

September 5, 2006 06:28 PM | Link to this

dave,,big fan of your work,,,,,i think braves are only boyer,,foster..hampton,,,devine away from being much better,,,,,,,whats the word on the 3 injured guys,,,,plus what happened to stockmans rehab,,,,,also i think you get those 3 plus a leadoff hitting corner outfielder and resign wickman and your looking at91-94 wins if healthy next season,,,,surely a wild card squad at worst,,,,

By Metropolitan Man

September 5, 2006 06:46 PM | Link to this

Glad to see you guys are excited about something. Too bad tonight the METS will tear you a new one. Any team that shut them out had to pay for it in the following game this year so METS fans can rest assured that the braves will get torn out the frame tonight,not that it really matters to the METS!

By TheSouthernJackAss

September 5, 2006 06:56 PM | Link to this

Coulda…Woulda…Shoulda…Hell!—I can’t wait till next year when the losin’ starts all over again—“Curse of the SouthernJackAss” lives forever!!!…GO ED SULLIVAN!!!…

By Shaun Payne

September 5, 2006 06:57 PM | Link to this

But seriously, I don’t see why the amount Hudson is paid is a valid statement on how well he is going to be. The amount Hudson makes (7 figures a year this year, not 8) is based on what he has done and hopes of what he will do. I can almost guarantee that if we do manage to trade Hudson, next year he’ll go 24-3 with a 2.10 ERA and win the Cy Young, MVP, Golden Glove and Silver Slugger awards. It’s just the way it works. I have yet to find the Bill James formula for that, but there has to be one some where.

What Hudson makes isn’t relevant to how good he will be, I agree. The discussion of Hudson and his contract, I think, started because someone said he stinks and I said he’s solid, but he stinks relative to his contract; he’s overpaid based on his performace so far.

As far as Hudson going 24-3 with a 2.10 ERA I would put a lot of money on him not even coming close to those numbers no matter where he is.

By David O'Brien

September 5, 2006 06:57 PM | Link to this

They were going to bang the game at 5 p.m. and play DH tomorrow, but decided for some unknown reason to go ahead and open the gates and try to play tonight. So now, of course, it hasn’t stopped raining hard since they made the decision. Doesn’t look good. Definitely be a rain delay, if we get started at all.

If it’s canceled, would play a straight DH tomorrow at 1, probably.

Oh, and Davies is scheduled to pitch tomorrow, not Villarreal. Reasoning two-fold _ Davies only threw about 60 pitches Saturday, so he’s better option on short rest than Villarreal, a former reliever who had arm surgery not too ago. Also, Davies is 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA in four games (three starts), vs. the Mets, including 2-0 with a 3.63 ERA in three starts this season. It’s the only team he’s won against more than once in his brief career.

Here’s frightening stat: Davies is 0-2 with a 12.56 ERA and .459 opponents’ average in his past four starts, with 34 hits (five homers) and 20 runs allowed in just 14-1/3 innings.

Hampton will be in the rotation, his rehab’s gone well. Boyer should be ready, because he had his surgery so early in season, but he hasn’t been rehabbing at ballpark when we’re there in afternoon, so I haven’t talked to him.

Foster had his surgery a bit later than Boyer, but still should be ready for spring training. But I don’t know how much they’ll be counting on Foster, and I don’t think they’ll be as certain about Boyer for a major role as they felt going into last spring. Probably more like, we hope he’ll be ready to use in a prime setup role, but will approach it as if another guy is needed just in case Boyer has more setbacks.

By David O'Brien

September 5, 2006 07:00 PM | Link to this

The last part there, about Hampton and Boyer, et al, was response to question from PAT. I should’ve made that clear.

I’m hearing conflicting reports now, by the way. Some whispers from ink-stained hacks in the pressbox that the game might be called soon.

By DonCoburleone

September 5, 2006 07:32 PM | Link to this

DOB mlb.com is showing the game as canceled already…

By David O'Brien

September 5, 2006 07:33 PM | Link to this

DH tomorrow at 1:15, conventional DH, second game to follow 30 minutes after first ends

Smoltz vs. Dave Williams in first game, Davies vs. Oliver Perez.

It’s the most sweepable doublheader in history for the Braves.

By DonCoburleone

September 5, 2006 07:44 PM | Link to this

And KC, I am an admitted LaRoche basher. I don’t like his lackadaisacal play or ADD or whatever the hell is wrong with the guy. To put it simply, he just rubs me the wrong way. He has been playing well the last few months and good for him, but just remember next year when he’ll be making $2.5 mil (give or take 500k) versus his $400,000 salary this year. So, if he struggles next year at a 2.5mil salary we can just throw him on the pile of current overpaid Braves (Chipper, Hudson, Hampton, Giles, and Andruw Jones… That’s right, Andruw Jones is not worth $14mil this year). So, you wanted the LaRoche bashers, here I am… All I know is he better keep it up the next couple years, otherwise it will make my cries of “trade him while his value is it’s highest” come true.

Now trade LaRoche while we can get high value in return!!!

By DonCoburleone

September 5, 2006 07:55 PM | Link to this

I also will admit that after James’s first 4 or 5 starts when everyone was handing him the title of the “next Tom Glavine” I told everyone to calm down and just wait… I am going to say the same thing right now. I will admit, he definately has better than 3rd starter potential like I said he did a couple months back, but to be throwing the “ACE” term around already is really jumping the gun. “Ace’s” are aces cuz they’ve proved capable of giving quality outings 80 or 90 percent of the time with the occasional gem (CG shutout or close) for a sustained period of time. I would put that period of time at 2 years. 2 years of pitching up to the standard I just set until you can legitemately throw around the “Ace” term. My perfect example, Johan Santana is an ACE, Francisco Liriano is a great young pitcher with ACE potential. That is what James should be called, a great young pitcher with ACE potential. John Smoltz is the only ACE on this team however….

So, in closing, I will happily eat my words in regards to calling James a “3rd starter at best” but to call him an ACE already is a stretch.

By MEB

September 5, 2006 07:59 PM | Link to this

DonC… I would be interested to know which players you do find to be of good value? What are you going to do put Thorman at first and hope he develops into the player that is Adam LaRouche? What value is an all-star caliber second baseman? Do you give up and discard a player like Hampton or Chipper because they have an injury? Yeah you’ll make a great GM and one that will make the Braves a real desirable team to play for.

By dadgum

September 5, 2006 08:00 PM | Link to this

Someone on the blog either this one or the last blog said the game was on Turner South, I just checked and it was most definitely on TBS but alas the rainout. Bummer, I was settling in with a beer hoping for another Met butt kicking in Shea.

Rock and roll tomorrow dudes. Time to take two. Work is cranking up so I will be off the blog more often. Maybe one day in Atlanta we can meet in one of DOB’s seedy bars with him picking up the tab…I said maybe. I’ll settle for a good barbeque joint too. Later Braves bloggers of the night.

By el bravo x

September 5, 2006 10:44 PM | Link to this

Smoltz vs. Dave Williams in first game, Davies vs. Oliver Perez.

It’s the most sweepable doublheader in history for the Braves.

You sound like my wealthy bookie!

By Brad

September 5, 2006 10:49 PM | Link to this

Talking about RBI vs OBP. Well, Francouer has a .455 OBP in his last 7 games.

By Head Coach

September 5, 2006 11:15 PM | Link to this

I’m betting TBS will broadcast the first game and then shows friends reruns during the second game just to torment us , lol.

By TennesseePaul

September 5, 2006 11:37 PM | Link to this

Alright A few things.
Adam Worth: No. I’ll quote the Big one on this. My advice is, do what your parents did! Get a job, sir! The bums will always lose— do you hear me, Lebowski? The Bums will always lose!

And now DonC is pulling semantics on everyone? Chuck James is an ACE. The description is apt. Apt I tell you. APT!

As for the Dodgers, in 2004 half the team was Depot’s. He decided, rightly, not to resign the guy that set all the franchise records the previous season (Beltre — what a juicer. His head swelled to the size of a pumpkin). But Depot’s flaw was, he replaced him with a guy that had only played 2 games at 3B and was 400 years old. He made these kinds of moves every where. To much reliance on stats. You need a man out there checking the guy and seeing if the numbers are true or apt for a guy of that age. Weaver, by the way, actually lead the team and was high in the rankings for quality starts one of those years. I never liked that guy and was glad to see him flop around this year. But he did an OK job for what I expected out of him (I expected this season out of him the previous two seasons). As for basing the team entirely on Sabermetrics versus Scouting, so far I’m siding with scouting. It’s handed the Braves 15 straight winning seasons (16 if they get over .500 this year) and 14 straight first place finishes. No other team has been this consistant for this long.

Chipper is still valuable. He’ll be healthy next year the whole season and it’s just going to be sick. He’ll blow everyone away. This year he has been incredibly good. He’s just missed more games than I’d have liked. But he’s produced when he’s in there which is better than most.

GO BRAVES!

By flbravesgirl

September 5, 2006 11:40 PM | Link to this

Head Coach, they said they were showing both games on TBS.

By Scalp'em Braves

September 5, 2006 11:44 PM | Link to this

Oh, so many comments to make….

Dave - on Prine, I thought his last CD was terrible.. this from a longtime Prine fan - he had throat cancer - when the doctor told him that the surgery may affect his voice, Prine said “Doc, have you ever heard me sing?” He hasn’t lost his sense of humor, in any event. He lives in Ireland now, and is a neighbor of a buddy of mine. He still performs in local pubs in Galway, but, he ain’t the performer he used to be. Give him an “A” for effort, though.

The Bravos are toast this year, as far as the playoffs are concerned. They will not win the wildcard, period. Too many good teams to overtake (Padres, Phillies & Reds, among others). Damn, this was a fine run for 14 years, for a guy who remembers the futility of the 70’s and 80’s… buying a general admission ticket for $2 or $3 and being able to sit 10 rows behind home plate, because nobody else was there and the ushers didn’t care if we walked down there. We’ll be back.

To the guy railing on Ryan Howard because he plays in a hitter’s park - are you gonna say the same thing about Hank because he played in a park called the “Launching Pad”? Geez, get real - the kid has talent and power. He is the real deal.. don’t get upset just becase he took Huddy yard 3 times in a game. Respect your opponent and its good players.

Next year…

Keep Smoltz, Chucky, Kyle, Hamptom, Huddy and HoRam… I know that outside of Smoltz, the others are inconsistent. What are we going to do with our payroll limitation… Sign Schilling? Liriano? Santana? Zambramo (Cubs, not the Mets version). Get real folks, we can only sign or trade for pitchers: (a) we can afford (the money is not there, and won’t be there); and/or (b) who want to come to Atlanta (not many of those who will come for a discount, if any). Dump Thompson (if he has any contract left for next year), and send the rest of the bums to the bullpen or the minors, or packing.

Bullpen.. Beefy Bob blew his first save for us Saturday.. It was painful to watch. But, this guy is who we need to close. He is “blue collar”, is a good pitcher, and, according to everything I have heard/read, is a Godsend to the younger pitchers we have in the pen. Sign him to a one year contract for a few mil. I think it will be more than worth the price. Besides, he came back the SAME AFTERNOON after blowing the save to shut down the game. He isn’t so psychologically fragile that he freaks out after getting pounded like so many we have had in the past (Smoltz definitely excluded from that group).

Andrew - trade him? You gotta be kidding me. He can be inconsistent offensively, at times. But, he’s 4th in the league in RBI’s. The league doesn’t have a “Runs Saved” category for defense, but if they did, he’d not only lead, but would probably lead 5 or 6 centerfielders combined in the category. I don’t care what it takes, monetarily, to keep him. Sign him to a life contract!!

Frenchy - bench him? Are you out of your freakin mind? The guy hustles.. Granted, not the most selective hitter on the team.. but when he connects, boy, does he connect! He is another who saves runs with his defense. For gods sakes folks, give this kid a chance! He is the reincarnation of Dale Murphy, once he gets his act together offensively, and far exceeds Murph defensively in Hank’s playground.

Marcus Giles - I say keep him, if he can be signed reasonably. He is a gamer - much like Mark Lemke was (nickname - “Dirt”), but with more talent, offensively and defensively. The kid never quits, and never fails to give his utmost effort - a rare quality amongst major leaugers these days (hope his health holds up, and God smile on him for his family issues).

Adam LaRoche - “La C** Roach” as I have seen him called on this site before. Say what you want, but he has broken out and proved that he is a hitter this season after the All-Star break. He is not as fiery as Will Clark was, not as steady as Steve Garvey was, nor as powerful as Ryan Howard is proving to be. But, he gets big hits when we need them, is a smooth fielder, and seems to remain calm amid the storm. I like him.

Platoon Langerhans/Kelly Green (if he comes back from the DL) with Diaz in left. Langy and Green are superb fielders, but only adequate with the bat. Diaz is an average fielder and is good with the bat. Hell, you can’t have an All Star at every position. We could do worse (e.g., Reggie Sanders in an “off year”, etc.)

Brian McCann - “The Man” - our future at catcher - dump Pratt, bring up Bryan Pena as the backup. Can’t lose here.

The Braves have the nucleus for a really good team next year. The only thing that needs “tweaking” is the pen. I have confidence in JS that he and Bobby can find the right mix. Goodness knows they have done it before. Let’s not dump talent just to get today’s hot stars. Nuff said.

SCALP ‘EM BRAVES!!!

By TennesseePaul

September 5, 2006 11:45 PM | Link to this

Just saw this headline on Fox Sports: Griffey on shelf with injured toe

What’s the word on this Jimmy? If you’ve already reported and I missed it, I blame it on the toe.

By Ptown Bravo

September 5, 2006 11:52 PM | Link to this

Here’s a stat that matters: #1 in one-run losses. Did I hear that one right? DOB, could you please have your stat lady check that one? (And don’t tell me you don’t have a stat lady - this is the AJC, right?)

It’s not exactly his fault alone, but you could dump Calgary in the hole that Reits dug for Bobby and Homeboy. I hope he comes back healthy and avenges this embarassing footnote to his career.

By Ptown Bravo

September 6, 2006 12:01 AM | Link to this

And along with the Chuck James’ superfreak performance against the Mets, I’d have to add McCay McBride’s last few weeks’ work to the list of notables.

By Shaun Payne

September 6, 2006 12:01 AM | Link to this

As for the Dodgers, in 2004 half the team was Depot’s. He decided, rightly, not to resign the guy that set all the franchise records the previous season (Beltre — what a juicer. His head swelled to the size of a pumpkin). But Depot’s flaw was, he replaced him with a guy that had only played 2 games at 3B and was 400 years old. He made these kinds of moves every where. To much reliance on stats. You need a man out there checking the guy and seeing if the numbers are true or apt for a guy of that age. Weaver, by the way, actually lead the team and was high in the rankings for quality starts one of those years. I never liked that guy and was glad to see him flop around this year. But he did an OK job for what I expected out of him (I expected this season out of him the previous two seasons). As for basing the team entirely on Sabermetrics versus Scouting, so far I’m siding with scouting. It’s handed the Braves 15 straight winning seasons (16 if they get over .500 this year) and 14 straight first place finishes. No other team has been this consistant for this long.

I guarantee you DePodesta did not ignore age. One of the big things in the “sabermetric” community is context. You don’t just look at stats, you look at context. In 2005 DePodesta probably knew there were no good options worth the price he would have to pay so he took a chance on Valentin. He was also banking on big years from JD Drew and Milton Bradley, continued improvement from Cesar Izturis and a pitching staff to match the 2004 one. Nothing fell into place so the Dodgers didn’t go anywhere.

Like I said, there is more than one way to build a successful organization and I think you would be stupid to ignore either sabermetrics or scouting. Both have obviously made valuable contributions.

I can say that I’ve learned more from reading books about statistical analysis than I did from playing organized baseball from age 7 through high school. I obviously learned a lot from doing both but I wish I had known some of the stuff that those books about statistical research has taught me. I have no doubt it would have made me a better ballplayer.

By Ptown Bravo

September 6, 2006 12:13 AM | Link to this

…And, finally, to the notion that John Prine has recorded anything terrible - we, sir, are of disparate opinions (not to mention taste). I only hope this gnarled voice thing doesn’t wreck Prine’s career like it did to Dylan and Cash, not to mention some tramp named Billie.

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 12:14 AM | Link to this

Ptown, what are you talking about, “stat lady”? Are you freakin’ serious? There is no stat lady, stat boy, stat anything. I get every stat I use myself, most off the stats, inc. service that we pay by the minute to use. But they don’t do any for us, just provide the numbers to sift through.

Braves are 16-29 in one-run games, truly heinous.

By Ptown Bravo

September 6, 2006 12:16 AM | Link to this

Curses, Shaun Payne, I was on a certifiable rant before you interrupted me! Back to the spreadsheet!

By Ptown Bravo

September 6, 2006 12:23 AM | Link to this

I was just throwin’ a jab, Dave - lest your readers forget all the heavy lifting a sportswriter’s gotta do. But you really should work one into your next contract - Simers got one, even Bill Simmons has one now (and they’re only columnists).

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 12:26 AM | Link to this

Scalp ‘em Braves: Sorry you think so little of Prine these days. I respectfully and totally disagree with you, however. His last CD was great, and got great reviews from the critics I respect most and from everyone else here who’s discussed it with me (and we have a lot of Prine fans here).

And you say he’s not as good a performer as he used to be. well, I saw him 12 years ago in Fort Lauderdale and saw him three months ago in Houston, and he was better three months ago than 12 years ago (I can’t speak for what a performer he was 20 years ago, or 30). And he got massive applause and standing ovations from the sold-out crowd at Houston, and the folks I heard around me, the ones in their 50s who’d seen him a long time, said it was a great show.

As for your suggestion of platooning Langy and Diaz with “Kelly Green,” I assume you’re talking about Kelly Johnson. But you lost a bit of cred when you said he and Langy are “superb fielders” but only adequate with the bat. Langy is a superb fielder, but Kelly is a coverted infielder and nothing more than a serviceable outfielder. Kelly is much more a hitter than he is a fielder.

I do like some of your other ideas and evaluations, however.

And you’re right about Howard _ anybody saying his power numbers are a result of Citizens Bank Park has simply done no research. Before the Braves series his numbers were almost exactly the same on the road and home, had 24 homers home and 24 road. And he hits very, very few fence-scrapers _ the kid hits most of them 450-480 feet, balls that are out in any park in the world.

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 12:30 AM | Link to this

Simers, Simmons … whatever. I’m a working man, not a pretty-boy columnist. I do my own stats, make my own hotel and travel reservations, and bring my own bags from the cab.

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 12:37 AM | Link to this

P’town, just saw your reply to Scalp ‘em regarding Prine, after I’d already posted mine. Glad we were of like mind. Can you believe he said that about that last album? And you’re right comparing his voice to Cash and Billie Holiday, whose voices were technically shot near the end, but who never sang more powerful, emotional stuff than they did with those shot voices.

Just adds character and depth to the genius artists, to hear the age and experience and struggles and pain in their voices. Billie’s was affected by hard living and abuse of all kinds, but I defy you to find a more beautiful voice than hers at the end.

Johnny … he practically was croaking on that last album, and it was awesome. Scalp ‘em would probably say Johnny’s last few albums stunk, too. But if he says that, we’ll have to bar him from the Braves and Man in Black blog. (just kidding, Scalp ‘em. You’re certainly entitled to express any opinion you want, my man.)

By Ptown Bravo

September 6, 2006 12:42 AM | Link to this

You’re a man of the people, David O’Brien, and the people are fortunate. The J. Freedom du Lac of the sports journalism universe.

By Head Coach

September 6, 2006 12:49 AM | Link to this

You tell’em David , lol. Your just a working stiff like the rest of us. David , have you heard if the Braves are going to call up anymore farmhands from Richmond or Mississippi now that the minor league season is done ? The Braves are currently carrying 33 players and the roster can fill out to 40. Thanks !

By TennesseePaul

September 6, 2006 12:50 AM | Link to this

Payne: He must of overlooked his third based replacement then. Because the guy was older than dirt, still is as a matter of fact. Besides his age, what about his career would even a numbers guy like? It was a bad move which was based, from what anyone can tell, entirely on the previous seasons homerun total. There was no reason to get him. Anything would have been better than him and that turned out to be the case because he certainly didn’t help the team after injuring himself playing a position he had played rarely and poorly throughout his career.

I know about the sabrematrics. I’ve read up on it a ton, but I’d still stick with scouts more than numbers if I were a GM. There are too many intangibles and possibilities. If one must go through the pain of it to be right, then I’d suggest taking a look at Didier Sornette’s work on complex systems which more accurately describe the over all workings of a complex system made up of a great number of volatile parts. Didier applies it to earthquake prediction and stock market results, but it would equally apply to baseball statistics. Subing in the players, environment (stadium and fans), weather, time of day, time of year, and opponents components of each variable and so on and so forth. No body does this however, because applying advanced Chaos theory to baseball really negates the joy of the game.

And lastly, with all the hype and press that Oakland has gotten, they have yet to advance to the second round. At least the Braves made it to the WS 5 times and into the second round 9 times.

But, on the other end of that stick, I’m interested to see what San Diego can do now that they have reformed themselves in this mold.

By Head Coach

September 6, 2006 12:57 AM | Link to this

O yea , David O’ Brien ! Will Danys Baez , Horacio Ramirez or John Thomson have any chance at pitching again this season ?

By Canuckbravesfan

September 6, 2006 01:00 AM | Link to this

DOB—-I have asked about Phil Stockman on a few blogs, but no one has answered the question as to his status—surely he hasn’t gone the way of the Crocodile Hunter, has he ?? Had unreal numbers at all levels this year but seems to have disappeared from the radar screen.

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 01:08 AM | Link to this

Doubt it on more callups, especially with off day following this doubleheader. Bobby doesn’t like the clubhouse, dugout, team bus and everything else being in more full than it already is (you wouldn’t believe how cramped it is in a place like the outdated Shea Stadium clubhouse. You can barely move with the addition eight players in there. That’s why they sent Lerew back after he pitched once (well, that and fact he was awful in his one appearance). If they don’t need them here, Bobby doesn’t want them. And they’re not going to bring up anyone not on the 40-man now, barring emergency.

It would not shock me, however, if Salty got a call now that he’s done playing in that Olympic qualifying tourney in Cuba (which the US won, by the way). But haven’t talked to Bobby about that in a week or so, and last time I asked he didn’t indicate Salty would be up.

By Head Coach

September 6, 2006 01:09 AM | Link to this

Phil Stockman is on the 60 day DL , we wont be seeing him again till spring training.

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 01:10 AM | Link to this

Stockman kept reinjuring that hamstring, and I think they finally shut him down. But not certain. If he was ready to pitch, however, he’d have been here before Lerew. So he’s not ready.

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 01:13 AM | Link to this

Thanks, head coach. You are correct. Now I remember, they moved him to 60-day DL a week or so ago in order to add someone else to 40-man, I think when Davies came off the 60-day DL.

So there’s the answer on Stockman, courtesy of the coach.

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 01:15 AM | Link to this

I’d say yes on Baez, 50-50 on Horacio, and I’d lean heavily towards no on Thomson.

By el bravo x

September 6, 2006 01:16 AM | Link to this

I am taking my proteins and talking to ground control, I am Major Tom…I am feeling very scared, can you hear me Major Tom!

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 01:22 AM | Link to this

… Here am I floating round my tin can, far above the moon …

By Head Coach

September 6, 2006 01:27 AM | Link to this

Cool Beans David , I am a bit bummed out. I was hoping they would call up Blanco and at least give him a little playing time. They are in the market for a leadoff hitter and all the kid has done in double and triple A all season is leadoff and tear up both leagues. O’well the dugout and clubhouse is full. I kinda figured Baez would be back and am suprised to hear Horacio has any chance to pitch again this season. At any rate we do know left field or second base has to produce a leadoff hitter next season , the other six positions are nailed down at the moment. A double header tomorrow on TBS and I’m off for the rest of the week , God am I gonna get drunk , lol.

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 01:34 AM | Link to this

Enjoy. Just be sure to hide your car keys.

G’night, all.

…And the papers want to know whose shirts you wear/ Now it’s time to leave the capsule if you dare…

By el bravo x

September 6, 2006 01:40 AM | Link to this

Eclectic indeed dude! Here Comes Salty?

By gotigers72

September 6, 2006 01:55 AM | Link to this

Davies is young, but needs to learn SOON to keep the ball down, get ahead in the count, and throw less than 500 pitches every 5 innings. It seems he hasn’t progressed much in those areas, especially keeping the ball down. Chuck is making progress in those areas. He really gets hammered when he gets the ball up.

I hope Bubba the trainer is able to find some exercise this winter that will help Chipper strengthen his oblique muscles.

Buffett’s early stuff was his best songwriting/singing IMO. “A1A” and “White Sport Coat and Pink Crustacean” were my favorites, done before he got into all of that novelty nonsense. “A Pirate Looks At Forty” is one of my favorite songs.

By Gota love em

September 6, 2006 07:26 AM | Link to this

Dave, what do you think the chances are that the braves trade one of our young pitchers for a left fielder. I just dont see any strength in that position.

By dadgum

September 6, 2006 07:47 AM | Link to this

DOB….thanks for making this a great blog especially when the host blogger banters and creates interestiing material to conjure. Love the music critiques. The only thiing I really know about Prine, and I admit he is a great writer/performer, is teh song about “playing that damn guitar”. That was Prine right?

I am going to catch Skynyrd(again) in Virginia Beach on Oct.6th. The next night they play in Atlanta in the benefit. Hope a great crowd turns out for a great cause there.

Go Braves! We are still lurking and under the radar. Who knows.

By The Grinch

September 6, 2006 07:52 AM | Link to this

Morning, All! May be the first time I actually said that in the morning. I have lost faith in our wild card aspirations, but to not feel down. This team is going to be fine next year. The important thing for the end of the season is evaluating young talent and getting them some playing time, rehabbing the injured, and beating the Mets every last time if for no other reason than to keep their fans off the blog. Go Braves! Off to the chiropractor.

By 3trees

September 6, 2006 08:34 AM | Link to this

And from the sequel:

…I never done good things / I never done bad things / I never did anything out of the blue, / Want an axe to break the ice / Wanna come down right now / Ashes to ashes…

Another great artist.

Go Braves. Take the DH just for the heck of it.

By matt

September 6, 2006 08:43 AM | Link to this

Has anyone heard that commercial on 96 Rock? It says blah blah blah…”and the Braves are getting healthy.” HA!!! Considering Chipper just went on the DL they might want to come up with another one! This injury (as always) did not come at a good time. Let’s hope the pitching can do something it hasn’t been able to do all year….get the job done!!!

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 08:44 AM | Link to this

…My mother said to get things done/You’d better not mess with Major Tom…

On an entirely different note, Bobby was still undecided about Giles playing today, for what reason I don’t quite understand. Bobby wanted to have him “work out” before he decided whether to play him, and rain scrubbed that idea yesterday.

I’d be a bit surprised if he didn’t play at least one game today. Can you imagine if he ended up missing an entire seven-game road trip for, basically, heartburn (“acid reflux”)?

By Lew

September 6, 2006 08:53 AM | Link to this

DOB-Let him eat Pepcid AC. Have you listened to Wishbone Ash yet?

By Shaun payne

September 6, 2006 08:56 AM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

I don’t know if there was a better option for the Dodgers at third than Valentin. I’d have to go back and look it up. I’m guessing DePodesta thought Valentin, although not great, would match the production per dollar of any available thirdbaseman. His power numbers were decent and he showed some okay on-base ability in his career. Also, I think he thought he could afford a less productive offensive player at third because he thought he would get great seasons out of Drew and Bradley and Choi and Kent. And maybe signing Valentin had something to do with “sabermetric” defensive stats; I don’t know. This is just my somewhat educated speculation.

Also, the idea about complex systems made up of volatile parts is interesting. I think that’s why it’s stupid to ignore scouting. I think you have to take into account as much information as you can get: scouting, statistics, and psychology. I think psychology of players would be an interesting aspect to study. Talent is most important, but psychology has to play a big roll in whether a high school/college player becomes a productive major leaguer.

I do think most intelligent and open-minded statistical-minded analyst try to take the complexities of situations into account when doing their research. I know the guys at Baseball Prospectus realize the importance of context, based on what I’ve read from them.

By Scalp 'em Braves

September 6, 2006 09:04 AM | Link to this

Dave - didn’t mean to strike a nerve with the Prine comment on the last CD. But, as you and Ptown point out, we’re all entitled to our opinions. I was thrilled when my wife bought me the latest Prine CD. I popped it in and started to listen. It sounded a lot like Cash’s last album. Full of emotion and a voice that made me cringe like listening to nails scraping across a blackboard. Granted, Prine’s appeal was never in his voice, but in his song writing and unique view of everyday life. It was just painful for me to listen to.

Mea culpa on the Green/Johnson name mix up - it was late, and I was tired. Besides, the guy hasn’t played in forever, it seems. I just recall that last year he made some great catches.. I don’t have the benefit of watching spring training, being around the team everyday, etc. Certainly, I would defer to your judgment on these matters - I’m nothing more than an interested fan with a big mouth and an opinion about everything, whether it be right or wrong.

Keep up the great work - I really enjoy this site.

By journalist jimmy smith

September 6, 2006 09:05 AM | Link to this

tennessee paul, it is a disclocated toe for ken griffey, jr. he has twisted the toe next to his big toe (this little piggy stayed home). this is the first dislocated toe for ken griffey, jr, and it remains to be seen how long he will be out with this troubling toe injury. toes are not to be trifled with.

5 new braves babies on the way and chipper is suffering a strain. hm m m m …

it was good to see bob didier mentioned on today’s blog. favorite catcher from way back. this jounalist is no pretty-boy columnist but has a stat-lady. diane lane for a time, then virginia madsen … why does dob not have a stat-lady?

now, doubleheader - can the braves sweep?

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 09:05 AM | Link to this

Lew, thanks again for that CD. I like it. Frankly, I was never really into them, only because I wasn’t really exposed to them; were just a bit before my time, i guess. I like it, but it does sound a tad more 70s-rock than I’m into.

Which I guess sounds a bit contradictory, since I did just recite Bowie lines, and I absolutely love Zep, etc. But to me, none of my favorites from 60s and 70s _ Dylan, Zep, Who, Beatles, early Stones, or even earlier, like Johnny, Elvis, Jerry Lee, etc _ none of them sound dated to me, they all have an edge, a pioneering and/or timeless quality, be it in the music or lyrics or both.

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 09:06 AM | Link to this

Jimmy, who on earth would I have have Virginia M. or Diane L. waste time doing stats?

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 09:09 AM | Link to this

or rather, “why” on earth, not “who.” It’s early, just waking up, packing, gotta change hotels because the rates go to absurd, astronomical levels (over $400) if I stay in this hotel tonight. had to add a night and change my flight because of this freakin’ doubleheader today. now staying out at hellish LaGuardia neighborhood tonight…

This has been the trip from hell travel-wise, changing flights and adding night here because of doubleheader, changing trains and adding a night in philly because of doubleheader…

By journalist jimmy smith

September 6, 2006 09:10 AM | Link to this

they count on jimmy smith’s toes … very enjoyable.

By Shaun Payne

September 6, 2006 09:12 AM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

I know you say you’ve read a lot about “sabermetrics” and statistical analysis. If you haven’t read Baseball Between the Numbers, I strongly recommend it. It’s the best book about statistical analysis but it’s not so “sabermetric,” if that makes sense. I think the authors try to get away from the pre-conceived negative connotations associated with sabermetrics and research real baseball questions.

By Lew

September 6, 2006 09:14 AM | Link to this

DOB-They were always a bit more ecclectic than most 70’s bands. There cd Wishbone Four actually had a more country rock kind of edge to it-less British boogie music. Thought you might get into the guitar. It’s probably not destined to become one of the all time greats, but somewhat diverting. I know what you mean about dated, though. I just got a Psychedelic era cd from a 60’s band called Love. I really liked it when it came out, but it was like going through a time tunnel listening to it today. I grew up with Beatles and Motown. Jimi kicked my sensabilities through my ears. I was never the same after Purple Haze and then Led Zep 1 and Deep Purple in Rock finished the job. Any word on who might televise the second game today?

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 09:15 AM | Link to this

Hey Scalp ‘em, your opinion is much welcome and respected. I can certainly understand where some would be turned away by the declining (technically, that is) voices of their faves. Me, I guess I just view it differently, like I said. The decline, to me, just adds a layer of richness and experience. It’s so real. They could have producers digitally clean up their voices, like aural airbrushing, but they don’t. and that, to me, is outstanding.

and prine still is every bit the towering songwriter he’s always been. “Some Humans Ain’t Human” and a few others off that last album were just terrific.

By Dark Helmet

September 6, 2006 09:20 AM | Link to this

DOB mentions today is a sweepable doubleheader.

You can say the same about the four after that too, when we get the only team that has been more hurt by injuries than we have. Sweep those, back above .500, probably 3 GB, then a sprint to the finish?

A ridiculous scenario, but hope pathetically dribbles eternal.

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 09:29 AM | Link to this

Both games today are on TBS, Lew. Love’s “Forever Changes” is an incredible CD, remastered a year or two ago with some added stuff. Did you hear the great band Calexico’s cover of “Alone Again Or” that came out a year or so ago? They did a great, great job covering it, on an EP they put out.

Saw them sing it at Variety Playhouse last winter when they (Calexico) did show with Iron & Wine.

I’d strongly, strongly recommend you give Calexico a listen if you haven’t before. Great, totally original band with a rock, american and tex-mex blend, a little ZZ mixed with a real contemporary sound. Download or whatever some of their stuff. You’ll love it. Their CD Black Light was incredible, and so is most of their other stuff.

By realistgrod

September 6, 2006 09:31 AM | Link to this

It is so refreshing to see some serious and (for the most part) intelligent comments on this blog. Thank God no one has mentioned the words “WILDCARD” or “PLAYOFFS” yet. Let’s go kick some NY butt today.

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 09:31 AM | Link to this

Dark Helmet, so true. Hope does pathetically dribble eternal this September, doesn’t it? What a wild-card race. Or not.

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 09:35 AM | Link to this

oops. realistgrod, i hope my mention of the w.c. words wasn’t a faux pas. more pointing out what an absurdity it’s been than anything. fact that it’s still even possible … just ridiculous, given the disappointments of this season.

OK, gonna pack the laptop for cab ride to Shanty Stadium … er, Shea Stadium.

By Louis Vales

September 6, 2006 09:41 AM | Link to this

Haven’t read any crying about Time Warner restricted payroll today. Maybe people realize it won’t fly in face of team whose entire roster earns less than Magglio Ordonez being 3 out of the Wild Card. Think these 4 rookies in Marlins’ rotationare good wait until you see the real studs getting ready in the minors. Two good young pitchers for a young centerfielder and they are off. 5 pitchers drafted in 1stround last yearn not counting Garcia, Petit, Hernandez, Sinkbeil, Mildren, ETC, Etc, Etc Etc—as they would say in the King and I.

By 2 homo boys

September 6, 2006 09:52 AM | Link to this

Chuck James is agood pitcher and is going to be even better next year.Everyone keeps saying trade for a leadoff hitter with speed,they keep forgetting that Willy Aybar is a good leadoff hitter and he has speed,what the Braves need to do is trade Giles and make Aybar the 2nd baseman and leadoff hitter for next year.They should be able to get some descent relief pitcher for Giles.throw langy into the deal and make Diaz or Thorman the left fielder for next year.The biggest move that JS has to make is to sign Bob Wickman,he needs to give Wicky more than a one year contract,he needs to give him a 2 yr deal with an option for the third.the rest of the bullpen castoffs don’t need to be back next year,only need to keep McBride and maybe sign Baez as the setup guy for Wickman for next year.then keep Ward as our pinch hitter for next year.my boy friend and i think it would be good to trade HO Ram.Rotation of Smoltz,Hudson,James,Hampton,and/or Villareal or Davies.Next year bullpen could look like boyer,mcbride,baez,wickman,stockman,and maybe a couple two or three free agents signed during the off season.or give Will Startup a chance in the bullpen for next year.

By KC

September 6, 2006 09:53 AM | Link to this

I was just reading something good in DOB’s update column. For those who haven’t read it…

In his last 23 games, Macay McBride has a 0.51 ERA and a .177 opposing average. He’s had that kind of opposing average against lefty hitters all season, but he’s getting right-handed hitters out recently as well. Those are pretty remarkable numbers. Looks like we may have a good one on our hands. He might be around for a while.

By Daddy Reitsma

September 6, 2006 10:04 AM | Link to this

Don’t forget my boy is coming back next year and with his arm straighen out is gonna be even stronger and better next year.He has been working out hard and his arm is making good progress so we are excited about next year which is gonna be his best,all you doubters wait and see,the last laugh will be with us when we laugh our butts of when my boy has the best year of his career,if the Braves don’t appreciate us,my boy can go somewhere where he will be appreciated,either way he is gonna have the best year next season than he has ever had.he will have it with the Braves or with someone else.Omar minaya said he would love to have my boy and also Tony Larussa said the samething to me,so if the Braves don’t want us we can move on.My boy would love playiing in New York and would be closer to home.

By eware

September 6, 2006 10:06 AM | Link to this

DOB, did you get that new Black Keys EP? Its pretty rockin’. The new album comes out next week.

Plus, did you get tickets for their show at Variety Playhouse for Nov. 9th? The wife told me not to spend the money, but I won’t let that devil-woman keep me from seeing them live!

By Shaun Payne

September 6, 2006 10:17 AM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

One more thing about DePodesta, then I’ll shut up. I think I’ve already said this but I have no idea if DePodesta was a good GM or a bad GM, and I don’t think anybody knows. I think it’s silly to assume that he was a bad GM and relied too much on stats only based on two years. He didn’t exactly inherit a great situation, although he could have inherited worse. But, my point is two years is not really enough time to make any definitive judgements. I’m sure he isn’t/wasn’t perfect just like every other GM in baseball, but it would be silly to pretend we know that he was good or bad based on the two years with the Dodgers.

By Sam

September 6, 2006 10:28 AM | Link to this

Hey Guys…what is all the talk about getting rid of Andruw. Remember he is now the greatest fielding centerfielder in the history of baseball..even Willie Mays cannot carry his %$#@*&. I like the way James is pitching. I like the way he sling shots his arm when he pitches. He may be another Glavine.

By journalist jimmy smith

September 6, 2006 10:34 AM | Link to this

follow-up journalism: the dislocated second toe of ken griffey, jr has been popped back into place. ken griffey jr is taking anti-inflammatories to let the swelling go down and is listed as day-to-day. will this toe injury end the season of the great one? toes are not to be trifled with.

By Lew

September 6, 2006 10:41 AM | Link to this

DOB-Forever Changes, remastered is what I just picked up. It did take me back. Off to the toe Doctor for me. Gotta keep them digits in working order.

By KC

September 6, 2006 10:44 AM | Link to this

Seems to me that Cinci needs to trade Griffey back to Seattle where he can finish his career as a DH in the uniform he’ll always be remembered for having worn. Obviously his MASH unit days in Cinci have been utterly forgettable.

By Shaun Payne

September 6, 2006 10:47 AM | Link to this

Sam,

I don’t think anyone should be above a trade, but I do think the Braves have to get a lot in return. If Schuerholz can make a trade similar to the AJ Pierzynski for Francisco Liriano and Joe Nathan trade, he should go for it (i.e., Andruw for three outstanding young players/prospects).

By No Talent journalist jimmy smith

September 6, 2006 10:50 AM | Link to this

Oh the humanity!

By Shaun Payne

September 6, 2006 10:52 AM | Link to this

Sam,

If you are a GM, I think it would be dangerous to have certain players off-limits to a trade. That’s why the Braves don’t do no-trade clauses. You never know when a team is going to blow you away and overrate any single player.

By journalist jimmy smith

September 6, 2006 10:55 AM | Link to this

let’s not step on any toes here. journalist’s last two posts involved a hated cincinnatti red. this is because griffey jr’s toes are in the news - but this is a braves blog. so, who are the more important toes on the braves? chad parontoe first come to mind. let us hope his toes remain healthy for this campaign. when chad parontoe first became a member of this team there was fear of hanging chad (a curve that does not bite) and of dangling chad (a sinker that does not sink). instead, his sinker is among the best around. this journalist thinks parontoe is one of the very best options out of the braves bullpen. no more tip-toeing around the subject at hand: give parontoe the seventh inning - not just when a ground ball is needed. find another 270 pounder to pitch the eighth. wicky can take care of the ninth. it will be a formidable bullpen when this is done.

By CD

September 6, 2006 10:59 AM | Link to this

Dave, Huge Braves and Flatlanders fan here. The Flatlanders actually put out another album, Now Again, in 2002, that is even better than Wheels of Fortune. You should give it a listen.

By Robert

September 6, 2006 11:01 AM | Link to this

The league is bad enough that chances are the Braves will finish within a few games of the wild card spot.

I can predict the media reaction. Kudos to that genius Bobby Cox for keeping everything together and getting a team this devoid of talent this close to the playoffs.

Very few folks will look at things the proper way, which will be to go back and ask how mnay games Cox lost thru bad managerial decisions - guaranteed it’s half a dozen at least, most recently Sunday against Philly (how do you NOT walk the guy with first base empty?)

It wont be 15 straight division titles, but it will be 14 out of 15 straight years that the donkey in the dugout has kept this team from being the best it could be

I just pray the donkey resigns at the end of the season

By Robert

September 6, 2006 11:04 AM | Link to this

“Should I suggest to Bobby that Chuck needs to keep the ball up, and give them your name?”

Come on. You dont honestly think Bobby would have any earthly clue what you were talking about, do you?

By journalist jimmy smith

September 6, 2006 11:09 AM | Link to this

how to develop another 270 pound relief pitcher? pie. pre-game pie and post-game pie. soon, we will have another.

By Shaun Payne

September 6, 2006 11:09 AM | Link to this

Robert,

Bobby Cox’s record doesn’t really show he’s been a bad manager, but maybe I’m wrong. I think one thing you can question is letting Francouer lead the team in plate appearances. But that didn’t really hurt our offense.

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 11:12 AM | Link to this

CD, you know what, I don’t know why I got that Flatlanders info messed up in my doubleheader-dazed brain. But I have the second CD; for some reason I was thinking that was the first, when of course it wasn’t, hence the name.

Anyway, thanks for the reminder. They are a great group.

Eware, glad you reminded me about that Black Keys EP. Just read about it last week; haven’t purchased it, but will. You got the last one, right, the covers of Junior Kimbrough songs? Great stuff.

I definitely plan to attend that show. A dude at the Prine show, actually a guy working there at the theatre, told me Black Keys were his favorite live band going these days…

Weather’s great here at Shea today, by the way. Should be no problem getting these in without delays. Feels like fall here.

By eware

September 6, 2006 11:18 AM | Link to this

DOB, the songs on the Black Keys EP will be on their new CD, so you might want to save your cash. There is a live version of Thickfreakness, though.

Also, have you heard the new Ray LaMontagne album? I was a little disappointed.

By Head Coach

September 6, 2006 11:24 AM | Link to this

Andruw has a no trade clause , its called ten and five. Ten years major league service and five with (all) the Braves.

By Dog the Bounty Hunter

September 6, 2006 11:30 AM | Link to this

Shaun, why you have it in for Francouer so bad? We could go try re sign Raul Mondesi if you’d like.

By Chopaholic

September 6, 2006 11:30 AM | Link to this

You guys keep going on about getting a lead off hitter. In the games since Giles got his burp attack, I don’t think there has been too much to criticize about the job that has been done. I agree Giles is a great doubles hitter and does have a bit of power, but a lot of those doubles would be triples if Orr was running them. I didn’t miss the swing from the heals attitude and appreciated the way the Team as a whole played the “little ball” in a way that produced runs. I didn’t see any decrease in defence either. To keep Giles will cost you 5 million next year. From what I have seen is the boys can get the job done for $500,000 or 1/10 the cost. Giles is a valuable trade commodity. Get something in return and use the 4.5 for other areas. I was at all the Philly games, and if Wickman had of saw that LaRoche had a good chance of diving and tagging Uttley if he wasn’t in the way, then taking 3 out of 4 and being 4 for 5 on this road trip was very possible.

It ain’t over till its over. Give’ em hell Braves!

By TennesseePaul

September 6, 2006 11:58 AM | Link to this

Payne: Not even his OPB would have been worth it. And his defensive stats on every level, obscure and prominant, are horrible for 3B. It’s his weakest position. His OPS was bad as well. But that’s to be expected when you OBP is under .300

By Head Coach

September 6, 2006 11:59 AM | Link to this

Chopaholic , Giles is a decent leadoff hitter. however he is not and never will be the table setter the Braves need. He doesnt steal bases , bunt or get to second on his own without a double. He doesnt disrupt or distract a pitcher the way that Furcal did. When you have a base stealing threat on first the guy behind him will see fastballs and sliders making it easier to get a pitch to hit and of course the hit and run come into play. Great leadoff hitters create chaos on the basepaths. Did you ever see Ricky Henderson play ? He could totally destroy a pitchers concentration and rhythm , then steal second fully knowing the pitcher/catcher coudn’t do a da.m.n thing about it.

By David O'Brien

September 6, 2006 12:13 PM | Link to this

eware, i so disliked the song I saw Montagne sing on Conan or one of the late-night shows, I decided the CD must be bad. If that’s the song he chose to sing on national TV. quite weak.

By DJ

September 6, 2006 12:18 PM | Link to this

Let’s look ahead to 2007, since this season is all but done. For starters here’s your starting infield & outfield: C-McCann, 1B-LaRoche, 2B-Giles, 3B-C. Jones, SS-Renteria, LF-Diaz (would love to have C. Crawford though), CF-A. Jones, RF-Francoeur.

Now allow me to explain: I know that comments are going to rage regarding Giles & the LF spot. Yes, Gilly is due for a salary increase, but who has more heart and grit and plays the game all out day after day. Let’s also mention the fact that he is one of the top defensive second basemen in the game. Above all he wants to stay and play for the Coxster. As far as LF is concerned, Diaz has proved his worth and should be the bonafide starter for next season. The Carl Crawford wish is simply that, a wish in that a lead-off hitter with speed and help manufacture runs is needed on this team so that we don’t have to rely on the two-run or three-run homer.

Now for the starting rotation: Smoltz, Hudson, Hampton, James, & Davies/Ramirez. Some of you are going to have concerns about Huddy of course, and you should. However, I don’t think that there will be too many staffs next year with the caliber of pitching like our potential rotation. He has struggled, but who has not during their time in the ATL, especially after having the types of seasons previously somewhere else. He is a gamer.

The bullpen: Boyer, Paronto, McBride, Villareal, Foster, Baez, & Wickman. All of these guys are gritty, blue-collar mentality guys who want the ball.

The bench: Ward, Orr, Aybar, Thorman, & B. Pena. Not the strongest, but definitely not the weakest either.

Trade bait: Langerhans, Ramirez or Davies, K. Johnson, and some of that talent in Richmond (AAA), Mississippi (AA), and Rome (A).

I know that there will be comments galore, but that is my assessment for next year. I am not an expert, but a loyal Braves fan and not some fairweather and bandwagon fan that only supports when things are well.

GO BRAVES!!! A new streak of division titles begin in 2007 and hopefully a world title.

By john

September 6, 2006 12:24 PM | Link to this

since james one hit the mets he has more of an upside than davies? davies threw a better game against the mets on april 18th.

By matt

September 6, 2006 12:29 PM | Link to this

Head Coach- I totally agree about the leadoff hitter’s role. I LOVE Giles but I also like a typical leadoff guy; someone who has great speed and can/will swipe bases. That is such a HUGE part of baseball. If you have a guy who can get himself over to 2nd that takes a lot of pressure off the hitters. The fastest guy on our team is Francouer and he’s batting 6th or 7th. I realize with his lack of discipline that you can’t lead him off but there isn’t a whole lot of speed outside of Frenchy in that lineup.

By Shaun Payne

September 6, 2006 12:34 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

The Valentin signing was more about value than about trying to get a good thirdbaseman. He assumed, and you could argue rightly so, that if Valentin could have gone out and just put up his career average numbers (along with the other players) they would have been fine. Sure Valentin never put up a great OBP or SLG, but he had put up decent ones, and DePodesta assumed, and you could argue rightly so, that if healthy and normal Valentin would be around an average thirdbaseman.

I think a lot of things went wrong with the Dodgers in 2005—Milton Bradley and JD Drew weren’t healthy, the pitching staff wasn’t as good, Gagne got hurt.

Even if the Valentin signing was a mistake (maybe it was, maybe it wasn’t) I still don’t think we can make any definitive judgements about DePodesta as a GM based on his stint with the Dodgers. Like I said, I’m sure he’s not perfect, but even great GM’s aren’t perfect. Maybe he’s an awful GM, maybe he’s a great one, maybe he’s somewhere in between. We just don’t know.

By Voice of Reason

September 6, 2006 12:35 PM | Link to this

I realize I’m treading into this dangerous water a little late, but are ya’ll really discussing how to fix the Braves’ offense? You’re kidding, right? I think, especially over the second half of this season, the issue of the Braves’ need for a “true leadoff hitter” has been taken off the table. You want numbers? OK.. Runs - 3rd in NL, 13th overall; Hits - 4th in NL, 7th overall; RBI - 2nd in NL; 5th overall. This team is not lacking for offense. They need pitching. They need a workhorse starter and a reliable 7th inning guy. Where have they gotten killed this year?… bottom of the rotation and 7th inning. I believe it’s very easy to look back at this season’s failures and you’ll see Smith, Schiell, Cormier, etc. and you’ll see a list of brutal 7th inning appearances.

By Voice of Reason

September 6, 2006 12:38 PM | Link to this

Oh, yeah…DOB, I got the new Dylan… It’s, well, ummm, it’s Dylan alright…

By geauxbraves2000

September 6, 2006 12:40 PM | Link to this

No Talent journalist jimmy smith, the real jjs has more talent in his big toe than you could ever even dream of having.

Plus this is getting really old, let it drop okay. What are you, in kindergarten?

Sorry the rest, I really don’t like to be amidst any type of controvery, I try to be a very “likeable” person, but that post is just getting old. Plus bashing the awesome jjs just won’t cut it in my book. I should ignore it, but I just can’t anymore. Sure wish DOB could do something, but I know it’s an open blog.

Anyhow, just about game time. Hope js turns it around from last time, and hope KD can go at least two if not three innings today. KD kicked butt out of the gate, but I haven’t been real impressed in his last several outings.

Geaux Braves!!

By Head Coach

September 6, 2006 12:42 PM | Link to this

Agreed Matt. And for you guys who keep dissing Francoeur , here is some historical perspective : In 1978 Dale Murphy played his first full season with these stats: 151 games 530 At bats 66 runs 23 homeruns 79 RBI 42 walks 145 strikeouts a .226 batting average and an OBP of .284 Francoeur is actually having a better first season than the murph did.

By Shaun Payne

September 6, 2006 12:48 PM | Link to this

matt and Head Coach,

I know this is going to open up a can of worms, but batting order isn’t all that important. It’s more important who’s in the lineup than how a batting order is arranged. How a manager arranges an order may be worth only a few runs a season. That’s not to say you shouldn’t arrange your batting order in the most optimal order, but it really is only worth a few runs a year according to a lot of research.

By Shaun Payne

September 6, 2006 12:50 PM | Link to this

Voice of Reason,

I agree. You could make the argument that the Braves have the best offense in the NL, if you take into account their home ballpark.

By elbravox

September 6, 2006 12:51 PM | Link to this

Touche DOB. Two dozen games left, freaking summer ‘07 was a speedy roller coaster.

By elbravox

September 6, 2006 12:57 PM | Link to this

‘06…

By Head Coach

September 6, 2006 12:59 PM | Link to this

I am not going to argue stupidity with you guys , forget it. I’m watching the game , bye.

By Shaun Payne

September 6, 2006 01:00 PM | Link to this

Head Coach,

I would have criticized Murphy, too. I’ve said it a million times: I think Francouer will become a productive player at least and a star at most. He just isn’t good offensively this year. And neither was Murphy in his first year.

By Voice of Reason

September 6, 2006 01:01 PM | Link to this

Shaun - Maybe not the best, but certainly sufficient. Chipper’s been the oblique, but pitching’s been the Achilles’ heel.

By Voice of Reason

September 6, 2006 01:10 PM | Link to this

HC - Argue stupidity? Please explain… If you’re referring to me, don’t simply commit a drive-by denial without the benefit of any support. That’s as effective as “Is… Is not… Is… Is not…” I’m not picking a fight, I just want to see your side of the debate. Also, I’ll show a little more maturity and dignity than to call you stupid for your unsupported remark…

By TennesseePaul

September 6, 2006 01:18 PM | Link to this

Payne: Well, had Depot listened to scouts, he wouldn’t have signed Drew (or at least, wouldn’t have relied on him as much, nor given him 55 million). He wouldn’t have traded for Meltdown. And he certainly wouldn’t have expected an average 3B from Valintine. Jose’s numbers at 3B are terrible (offensively and defensively he’s one of the worst at that position. He’s much better else where on the field). So, it makes no since. He took a championship team, and turned them into one of the worst teams in the majors. I’ll say he was a poor GM because, instead of fixing the holes from the previous season, he stripped the club and patched it back up with crutches and crap.

Love him if you must, but he didn’t display any good GM qualities from his brief stint. I say, let him go back to the office and sit in the corner with his laptop. Some guys are better advisors. Maybe he’s a great number cruncher, but he’s not a good GM. He does strike me as the type that would say…. oh I don’t know…. Langerhans would be an improvement over Francoeur. Moves like that need to be counter balanced which is why I think he should stick with the laptop and not with the GM duty.

I’ll agree to disaggree though and leave it at that.

By Shaun Payne

September 6, 2006 01:20 PM | Link to this

VOR,

Chipper’s been the best hitter, along with McCann and AJ. I don’t know 3rd in runs scored with half of the games at Turner Field is pretty good, maybe the best or 2nd best behind the Mets. Remember the Phillies play in a great hitters park and haven’t scored that many more runs than the Braves.

By Voice of Reason

September 6, 2006 01:20 PM | Link to this

New blog is up…

By Shaun Payne

September 6, 2006 01:26 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul,

I don’t know. There are plenty of scouts I’m sure that love JD Drew. And Valentin doesn’t look that bad to me. I mean he’s not going to be an all-star anywhere but he’s okay. The Dodgers weren’t a championship team. They won in a weak division one year (and DePodesta was the GM that year). I don’t love DePodesta or hate him, but I just don’t think we know too much about his GM abilities.

By Aaron Egnor

September 6, 2006 01:46 PM | Link to this

All the talk about Francouer reminds me of another .265 hitter who most Atlanta fans hold sacred - Dale Murphy. And how many times did we see Murph swing at a hard slider a foot outside and in the dirt? I don’t know about you guys but I saw it more than I care to remember….

Francouer is a kid. Give him time to be a better ball player. Right now his HR and RBI totals are enough to keep him on this team, or any other team for that matter. He’ll either learn plate discipline or he won’t.

By Matt

September 6, 2006 02:00 PM | Link to this

Shaun- I disagree as far as a batting order goes. Traditionally you want a

leadoff hitter-has a good eye, good speed, doesn’t swing at a lot of crap, doesn’t swing for the fence, his job is to find a way on base any way he can. The ability to steal a base only increases your value.

2nd hitter needs to be a guy who makes contact and is more of a gap to gap guy. He needs to also have a pretty good eye but his role is to move the runner over or better yet get him in. Pretty good speed is preferred.

3rd hitter is your best all-around hitter in every aspect. Normally you want this guy up in any situation.

4th is more of a straight power hitter. His avg. maybe much lower than the 3rd hitter but he should hit 30-40 bombs and drive in over 100. Might be prone to a lot of strikeouts.

5 hitter should be sort of a combination of both, good pop, good swing, can drive in runs. You would like to have a 4 hitter who can protect the 3 and a 5 who can protect the 4th.

THis is where it gets a little iffy. 6,7, can be sort of a toss up. The 7th maybe a little better and can protect the 6th guy and let him see better pitches. Your 8th man is almost always your weakest hitter. I’m not sure what research you speak of but I def. don’t agree.

By matt

September 6, 2006 02:17 PM | Link to this

I would also like to say though that I agree with you that they need a middle relief that can be counted on to get the ball to Wickman. It is also my opinion that something has to be wrong with Hudson’s mechanics. This guy was a big part of an elite trio at Oakland. He’s giving up around 1.5 more runs this year than last, which is hard to believe actually, it seems like a lot more. He’s missing his spots though, bad! Some of those balls he’s thrown up there look like grapefruits! Assuming we still have Smoltzie, and Hudson can work with Roger Mac, Chuckie, if Hampton returns, Horacio, Davies, we should be fine with starting pitching.

By Shaun Payne

September 6, 2006 02:20 PM | Link to this

Matt,

You can disagree. But the evidence and research seems to show batting order doesn’t make that much difference.

By Shaun Payne

September 6, 2006 02:24 PM | Link to this

Aaron Egnor,

I would have criticized Murphy, too, during his bad seasons. And HR and RBI have little to do with actual run creation. RBI are dependent on who you’re hitting behind and how often you’re in the lineup. (Broken record:) Francouer is likely to become a star but he’s not there yet.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2562

By gpburdell

September 6, 2006 02:28 PM | Link to this

Why does TBS always televise games that most people can’t watch because they are at work? Meanwhile, we can go an entire weekend with not a Braves game in sight. What’s up with that? Also, why do they always televise games against the Mets. I already get the Mets games and the TBS games are blacked out when they play the Mets. Very frustrating!!!

By TennesseePaul

September 6, 2006 02:54 PM | Link to this

Payne: The Dodgers may have won in a weak division, but they were the champions of that weak division when Depot had only turned over half the roster. Then, the next year, he turned over the rest of the roster and proceeded to lose in an even weaker division. I don’t know that there has ever been a division as weak as the West was last year. Had Depot done nothing, he would have repeated. Had he only made moves for pitching he would have repeated. But he put crutches at nearly every single position. Firecrackers in the out field. Scouts rave about JD’s skills, but JD has yet to produce with those skills on a consistant level. He’s Mr. Glass. That was no secret. Let’s put it this way, Atlanta followed scouts, offered JD a modest contract based on the scouting evaluation of his talents. Depot followed stats from a career contract year and offered a contract based on that. JD took the money and ran, as he has done since the beginning of his professional career. Depot got screwed. Of course, JS picked up Mondesi and Jordan. But at least we still won the division after those two clowns were replaced. And we saved $10 million dollars in the process. As for Valentine, he isn’t good at 3B. No way around that.

By Aaron Egnor

September 6, 2006 03:55 PM | Link to this

Shaun,

And from a business viewpoint, what puts fans in the seats to pay these ballplayers? A secondary stat, or someone who can throw immediate excitement into a game with one swing?

Baseball is all about numbers, but you seem to be forgetting an important number - attendance. If you put together a team based on your incessant link, you’re going to win some ballgames, sure. You’re also going to have bleachers that look like a Marlins home game in July. Where’s the excitement in watching a lineup made entirely of Craig Counsell?

There has to be balance. There has to be excitement. There has to be a reason for fans to come to the game - both old fans and potential new ones. Francouer will give you that edge ten times more often than Counsell or any other player who’s career is built around your stat obsession. Yes, he needs to improve in a number of areas, all of which can easily happen if he works at it.

By laurancemaney@hotmail.com

September 6, 2006 05:22 PM | Link to this

The guy who wants to trade Chuck James for middle-relievers must be the same guy that talked the homeboy upstairs into trading Jason Marquis for the immortal JD Drew or getting rid of Jermaine Dye and bringing in the immortal Michael Tucker and that eternal has-been Kenny Lofton. The reality is that the Braves have and have had a ton of promising pitchers that Bobby tends to waste if not outright ruin by misusing them in the bullpen. (Can anyone spell Joey Devine?) while the homeboy has never seemed that excited about resigning the good middle-relievers he’s stumbled upon over the years. Please.

By Head Coach

September 7, 2006 01:07 AM | Link to this

Voice of Reason , my stupidity comment was directed at Payne. Batting order doesnt matter ? What are saying ? hey , let the pitcher bat cleanup ! Dude , you know absolutely nothing about baseball. NOTHING ! please go blog somewhere else and leave the baseball talk in the hands of knowledgeable fans.

By Robert

September 7, 2006 11:32 AM | Link to this

“GO BRAVES!!! A new streak of division titles begin in 2007 and hopefully a world title.”

The first is not an end in itself, but only a means to the second

And, unfortunately, the second is mathematically impossible unless the Braves get a new manager

By matt

September 7, 2006 03:06 PM | Link to this

Shaun- if batting order doesn’t matter how would this lineup sound to you?

Chipper Pitcher Giles Frenchy LaRoche Langerhans Renteria A.Jones McCann

Doesn’t sound to promising does it? Managers decide the batting order based what gives the most firepower and the best chance to win. That’s why the pitcher always bats 9th and the next worst hitter is 8th. You put your better sticks toward the front to get them more at bats. If it didn’t matter they’d change it every other night based on the player’s performance(like in little league). Not sure where you are getting your info from again but it isn’t accurate.