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Wednesday, August 16, 2006
Two days a microcosm of season
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Is our nation’s capital not close enough to the South — if anyone here claims to live in the South, they’re delusional — for folks to at least know how to make both kinds of tea, the wrong kind and sweetened?
Just got back from walking to get some lunch, and got it to go. I get back to my room and take a sip of my tea and — aaargh! I know I asked her for sweet tea.
Anyway … well, now haven’t we had a perfect two-day microcosm that demonstrates exactly why this season went south and why this team is almost certainly going to be watching the postseason from the first round through the World Series?
(Hey, on a bright note, at least they can’t lose Game 5 at home this year, right? Whatever happens, they can’t lose the last game of a first-round playoff series at Turner Field! Even if they were to somehow rally and win the wild card, the Braves would be on the road for a Game 5 in the first round, which we know can only be good. Turner Field is where other teams traditionally go to clinch playoff series).
But anyway, the microcosm: Team inconsistency demonstrated over two days, particularly with pitching, but also with some hitters. Now, granted, Astacio pitched perhaps the greatest game of his life last night; the old man was flat spot-on with his command. Give the geez credit.
But the Braves did their usual no-patience thing and got behind in counts, which is death against a guy with as good a command as Astacio had when he needed to make a big pitch. The aggressiveness has paid some dividends for the Braves, who lead the majors in first-pitch homers, lead the majors in first-pitch slugging percentage, and rank second in the NL in first-pitch average.
But besides Andruw and Francoeur, who have 21 of the Braves’ 39 first-pitch homers — is that amazing, or what? — the first-pitch ginormous swings aren’t generally as productive as might be taking a pitch or two to gauge a hurler and see what he’s got.
But the real inconsistency, of course, is the pitching. That’s what happens, as we’ve said countless times, when you don’t have the starting pitching depth to cover for injuries (Horacio, J.T., Davies, et al) or underperforming guys (remember that guy Jorge Sosa? J.T. can go in this group, too).
When two- or three-fifths of your rotation at any time is a concession speech (gotta thank an unnamed broadcaster for dropping that line on me; don’t want to get him in trouble) then you really aren’t a contender, regardless of how mediocre the rest of the field is.
Cormier wasn’t terrible last night. He was actually decent. But he needed to be a lot more than that on a night when Astacio was great and the Braves’ fielders had a couple of costly errors (Pena’s was a bad hop, I agreed after seeing the replay).
Tonight you’ll have Smoltz going and probably doing his usual thing, pitching his butt off and leaving it all on the field, being exactly what the Braves wish all their pitchers could be, if not matching his talent then at least approaching his determination. The Braves will probably win.
Then tomorrow you’ll have Vulturreal pitching in the series finale. Oscar Villarreal, first start since 2003.
And if the Braves win tonight and we look at the wild card race and see they’re only five back or whatever, and maybe they’ll pass a team tonight, then tomorrow Villarreal will pitch and probably be mediocre in 4-5 innings, then at least one reliever will have a bad inning and the Braves will lose.
Then tomorrow night we’ll look at the standings and come to our senses again and realize the Braves face an almost impossible task. Then Hudson will pitch Friday, perhaps have another good start like his last two, and we’ll think … well, they’re still just five back … then Chuck might do the same Saturday.
Then the dreaded “undecided” (it’s going to be Cormier) will pitch Sunday and we’re back to reality.
And so it goes. What a year.
Here’s another indication of the Braves’ chances of playing .700 or so ball the rest of the way: They haven’t won even three in a row since their seven-game streak sandwiched around the All-Star break. They’ve had four-game and three-game losing streaks since they last won more than two in a row.
Last night, by the way, was the first time the Braves were shut out on the road since May 20 at Arizona, when they got crushed 13-0. That game was also their previous hits low (four) on the road until they were two-hit by Mr. Astacio last night.
Since that game at Phoenix, the Braves had been 21-16 on the road before last night, and racked up 202 runs and a crazy 73 homers in 37 games.
Just makes you wonder what this team might have been with just two things: A closer like Wickman for the entire season, and a starting rotation with two aces (like they were supposed to have) and three other guys capable of winning 12-15 games (like they were supposed to have).
If they had signed a closer last winter and got what they were supposed to out of their starters, I’ll go out on a limb and say the Braves, who lead the majors with 100 road homers — only other teams with 90 are Red Sox (97) and Tigers (93) — would be in a race to the wire with the Mets for the NL East.
And at worst, they’d be winning the wild-card race by about five games.
Woulda, coulda, shoulda, right?
Pass the sweet tea and the pie, dammit. What? No, I don’t want Equal!
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